Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Denver Broncos
The fans at INVESCO Field at Mile High will be treated to a game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Denver Broncos when they take their seats on Monday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Steelers listed as 3-point favorites versus the Broncos, while the game's total is sitting at 40.
The Steelers defeated Minnesota 27-17 as a 6-point favorite in Week 7. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (46.5).
LaMarr Woodley scored on a fumbled recovery and Keyaron Fox scored on an interception return for Pittsburgh in the win.
The Broncos lost to Baltimore 30-7 as a 4.5-point underdog in Week 8. The combined score fell UNDER the posted over/under total (42.5).
Kyle Orton passed for 152 yards with no touchdowns and no interceptions for Denver, while Knowshon Moreno rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on 10 carries.
Current streak:
Pittsburgh has won 4 straight games.
Team records:
Pittsburgh: 5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS
Denver: 6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS
Pittsburgh most recently:
When playing in November are 7-3
When playing on grass are 8-2
After being outgained are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 8-2
Denver most recently:
When playing in November are 5-5
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 4-6
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Denver
Pittsburgh is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Denver's last 7 games
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Next up:
Pittsburgh home to Cincinnati, Sunday, November 15
Denver at Washington, Sunday, November 15
Pittsburgh (5-2, 2-5 ATS) at Denver (6-1 SU and ATS)
Looking for their fifth straight win, the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers head to Invesco Field in Denver for a primetime matchup with the AFC West-leading Broncos.
Pittsburgh opened the season 1-2 (0-3 ATS) but rebounded to win four straight (2-2 ATS) prior to taking last week off. Two weeks ago, the Steelers beat the Vikings 27-17 at home, covering as a six-point favorite and they cashed in two Minnesota turnovers for defensive touchdowns in the fourth quarter to secure the spread-cover. QB Ben Roethlisberger is third in the NFL with 2,062 passing yards, and he’s completing 70 percent of his throws with 11 TDs and six INTs. Defensively, the Steelers rank seventh in the NFL in points allowed (18.4 ppg), eighth in total yards allowed (291 ypg) and first in rushing yards allowed (76.6 ypg).
Denver fell for the first time this season last week in Baltimore, losing 30-7 as a 4½-point underdog. The Broncos opened the season with six straight wins (6-0 ATS), and they’re getting quality play from QB Kyle Orton, who has thrown for 1,617 yards, nine TDs and just one INT. Denver’s defense had its worst out of the season last week, giving up season highs in points (30) and rushing yards (125). Still, the Broncos continue to rank in the top three in the league in scoring defense (13.7 ppg, second), total defense (266.7 ypg, first) and rushing defense (86.1 ypg, third).
The Broncos have won seven of the last 10 meetings (5-5 ATS) with the Steelers dating back to 1990. Since the Steelers scored a 34-17 upset win in Denver in the 2005-06 playoffs, the Broncos have taken the last two by scores of 31-20 as a three-point road underdog in 2006 and 31-28 as a four-point home pup in 2007. The ‘dog has cashed in four straight in this series, winning the last three outright, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.
Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against teams with a winning record and 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 9 games, but it is on pointspread slides of 2-6 since last year’s Super Bowl (all as a favorite), 0-5 on the road, 1-5 after a straight-up win and 2-5 on Mondays. Denver is just 7-17-1 ATS in its last 25 at home and 7-20 ATS in its last 27 after a non-cover, but otherwise the Broncos are on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 this year, 5-1 against AFC teams, 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 4-1 against teams with a winning record.
The Steelers are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 5-1 as road favorites, 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 16-5 against AFC teams and 5-1 against opponents with a winning record. The Broncos have topped the total in 20 of 28 after a non-cover and 15 of 21 after a straight-up loss, but they are on “under” stretches of 6-1 overall, 8-1 at home and 4-1 as an underdog. In this series, the “over” has been the play in five of the last six overall.
Finally, the “over” is 19-5-1 in Monday Night Football games dating back to last season (8-1 this year).
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Broncos, Steelers ready for MNF
By Judd Hall
Respect is a funny thing. Everybody wants respect, but not everyone wants to work for it. Perhaps it’s because it takes so long to attain that from someone else. Even worse is that a team can lose that respect as quickly as losing its first game of the season.
The Broncos needed to start the season with six consecutive to get some love by the media and the public alike. Yet it all was washed away for Denver (6-1 straight up, against the spread) last Sunday in a 30-7 loss to the Ravens as a four-point road underdog.
Denver will attempt to get that respect back as they play host to the Steelers on ESPN’s Monday Night Football at 8:30 p.m. EST.
One group that isn’t giving the Broncos much love this weekend is the sportsbooks. Pittsburgh (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) is listed as a three-point road “chalk” with a total of 40.
Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, says that game against the Ravens played into this week’s spread. “Losing to Baltimore did come into play for this week’s game, but not heavily. They would still have been underdogs but the line might be shortened up because of the Broncos’ record.”
If you look at the Broncos’ offensive stats alone, then you can understand where Scott and other betting shops are coming from. Denver is 20th in the NFL in scoring offense (20.0 points per game), 17th in passing offense (231.0 yards per game) and 11th in running the ball (123.1 YPG).
Kyle Orton has been a fantastic game manager for Denver so far this season. He’s 12th among all quarterbacks with a 95.5 rating for the season. Orton also has touchdown-to-interception ratio this season of 9:1…No other starting signal caller in the NFL that has played at least seven games can lay claim to that number.
Something else about Orton that we should note is that he’s not been asked too many times to lead this team to a win this year. Out of his nine touchdown strikes, only four of them have come in the final quarter of play. In those four scores, only two were to take the lead. And one of those game winning scores from Orton came on a lucky tip pass to Brandon Stokley in the season opener against the Bengals.
Denver doesn’t have to ask too much of its offense thanks to a defense that has been smothering this year. The Broncos have the second best scoring defense in the league (13.7 PPG), eighth against the pass (180.6 YPG) and third defending the run (86.1 YPG). The Broncos are also having success in reaching the quarterback as they’ve picked up 23 sacks this season.
The Broncos will need their defense to keep up the strong play if they want to take down Pittsburgh. The Steelers have played much better as of late, winning four straight decisions after dropping their second and third games of the season.
One of the reasons for Pittsburgh’s success has been taking the ball to the air, and not the trenches. The defending champs are averaging 295.4 passing YPG in 2009 to rank third in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger makes this passing attack run as he is completing 70.4 percent of his passes for 2,062 yards and 11 touchdowns. What “Big Ben” is also good at doing is taking sacks; he’s been dropped for a loss 20 times this season, to keep on paces for at least 40 sacks for the fourth straight season.
The Steelers are still dominant as a stopping unit, which shouldn’t shock anyone. They are seventh in scoring defense (18.4 PPG) and second overall against the run (80.3 YPG). Yet the secondary has been hit up a lot more than they’re used to this season. Pittsburgh has allowed 214.4 passing YPG in 2009: they were the best pass defense in 2008, surrendering 156.9 YPG through the air. Mike Tomlin’s defense also has more interceptions (20) than passing touchdowns allowed (12).
This game means the world to the Steelers as they are right in the thick of the AFC North hunt. Last year, they only had to face up with the Ravens for the divisional title. Now they get to fight with Cincinnati, as well as Baltimore to win the division and, at the very least, a playoff berth.
You never want to say a team can afford to lose a game, but Denver’s world doesn’t implode should they suffer a setback on Monday night. A loss for the Broncos will keep them in first place, but by only one game against the Chargers.
The Broncos shouldn’t feel like they’re in a strange spot here since they’ve been a home pup twice already this season, winning outright both times. That will no doubt make them a strong money line play for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130). Randy Scott says you should expect numbers like that anymore. “You will see money lines that don't seem to add up to the pointspread. That's because the players are heavy on the dog moneyline and heavy on the favorite pointspread.”
Pittsburgh has not fared too well as a road favorite over the last two seasons. They’ve gone 7-7 SU in that spot, but a paltry 4-10 ATS for our concerns. Yet the “chalk” has gone 4-2 ATS in the last six games on Monday night this season.
Adding more fuel to that fire is the fact Denver is 3-0 SU and ATS in its last three Monday Night Football games that they were a home underdog.
Monday Night Football has been an ‘over’ extravaganza this season, going 7-1 through eight weeks of play. That looks to be the right trend to play this week as eight of the last 10 head-to-head meetings between the Broncos and Steelers have seen the ‘over’ cash tickets.
vegasinsider.com
PITTSBURGH (5 - 2) at DENVER (6 - 1)
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DENVER is 39-20 ATS (+17.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 1-0 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH vs. DENVER
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games when playing Denver
Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 games at home
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
PITTSBURGH at DENVER
PITTSBURGH: 6-1 Over vs. Denver
DENVER: 10-2 ATS as home underdog
What Bettors Need to Know: Steelers at Broncos
By VICTOR RYAN
Monday night lights
The Steelers (5-2 SU, 2-5 ATS) enter this riding a four-game winning streak and have had two weeks to prepare for Denver following their bye. The Broncos (6-1 straight up and against the spread) are coming off their first loss of the season, a 30-7 pasting at the hands of the Baltimore Ravens.
The Steelers have recovered nicely from their 1-2 start and are tied atop the AFC North standings with the Cincinnati Bengals. They handed the Vikings their first loss of the season two weeks ago.
"We've put ourselves in a good position to go into this bye, but November, December, that's where the real teams start to separate themselves," Steelers defensive end Brett Keisel told the Associated Press. "Hopefully, if we're a real team around here, we can continue this win streak."
The Broncos defense, a key factor in the team’s undefeated start, is coming off its worse performance of the season. Denver is third in rushing defense with 86.1 yards a game, but gave up a season-high 125 to the Ravens.
"Anytime you have a game like this, it forces you to look in a mirror," Broncos’ head coach Josh McDaniel said. "Hopefully we can find out just as much about one another ... through the adversity of a loss as you can through six wins."
Law Dog
Defensive back Ty Law came out of “semi-retirement” this week and signed with the Broncos. The five-time Pro Bowler said he is expecting to contribute in the Broncos nickel package this week.
“They’re trying to get me ready to play this week in a limited fashion,” Law told ESPN.com. “I did it last year.”
Law joined the Jets at the midway point of last season.
Law and the rest of the Broncos defensive backfield, which now features five players over 30 years old (Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, Renaldo Hill and Brian Dawkins are the others), will be facing a Steelers’ receiving group that features three players averaging over 14 yards a catch.
“I’m just going to kind of wing it and go out and do the best I can,” Law said. “But right now they’re just shoving a lot down my throat because the terminology is totally different.”
Injuries
The Steelers defense, which hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in its last 25 regular season contests and leads the league in rushing defense at 76.6 yards a game, is expected to be without three starters this week: defensive end Travis Kirschke, linebacker Lawrence Timmons and safety Ryan Clark.
The Broncos come into this virtually at full strength, though third-year right tackle Ryan Harris is not expected to play because of a toe injury. He will be replaced by Tyler Polumbus, who will be making his first NFL start.
"We always give (Tyler) plenty of reps in practice. He handled himself well in the preseason," Broncos first-year coach Josh McDaniels said. "We'll expect him to go in there and play well."
Line movement
The Steelers opened as 3-point road favorites. The line currently sits anywhere from +1 to +4.5 depending on where you look. The total opened at 39 and has been moved to 40 virtually everywhere.
Weather
The forecast in Denver calls for mostly clear skies with temperatures in the mid-40s. Winds will be coming from the southwest at seven mph.
Trends
The Steelers are 8-2 ATS vs. teams with a winning record and 1-5 ATS in their last six games following a win. They’re also 0-5 ATS in their last five road games
The Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall and 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog. Denver is 4-1 ATS in its last five games vs. teams with a winning record.
The over is 4-1 in the Steelers’ last five games overall.
The under is 8-1 in the Broncos’ last nine home games and 6-1 in the Broncos’ last seven games overall.
Head to head: The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings while the underdog is 4-0 in the last four meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings
Broncos, Steelers on MNF
By AllStar.com
Pittsburgh goes for its fifth straight victory Monday night, when it looks to snap a three-game losing streak to a Denver Broncos club trying to bounce back from its first defeat of the season. Since opening the season 1-2, the Steelers (5-2) have gone undefeated to give themselves a legitimate shot to win a third straight AFC North title. They need a win to keep pace with Cincinnati who took care of the Ravens on Sunday.
The Denver Broncos are trying to bounce back from its first defeat of the season. The Broncos appeared intimidated against the Ravens and they got punched in the mouth at Baltimore 30-7. The AFC North physical style of play of the Steelers and Ravens is not the best match for the Broncos. But back at home, on Monday Night Football refocused after their first loss of the season, the Broncos should play better. They have beaten New England and Dallas at home already in close games, and this one could be similar.
Offense:
Ben Roethlisberger, third in the NFL with 2,062 passing yards, threw his 11th touchdown of the season last week against Minnesota. No quarterback has been more effective off the play-action fake than Roethlisberger. He has a perfect 158.3 quarterback rating, completing 25 of 29 passes for five touchdowns and no interceptions. The Running game led by Rashard Mendenhall who has a team-high 418 yards and four scores and veteran Fast Willie Parker missed practice time this week due to a fever, but is expected to play. Pittsburgh has a physical offensive line and looks to pound the ball and let Big Ben work the play action pass to perfection. Big Ben is one of the best in the no huddle, four receiver spread offense and if the pressure gets to be too much look for the Steelers to go to the no huddle. Antonio Holmes has become the Steelers big play wide receiver especially late in the no huddle offense.
Kyle Orton runs a pretty efficient offense, but Orton struggled last week. He threw for only 152 yards and could never get his offensive troops going. The Broncos entered Ravens territory only three times. The Broncos pass protection last week was not very good. That does not bode well against a Pittsburgh defense that is starting to show some of the tendencies it exhibited last season when it led the NFL in fewest points allowed, yards and passing yards and was second in sacks and fewest yards rushing. Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckholter and the running game will also try to get untracked against the Steelers after a less-than-stellar effort in Baltimore that yielded just 66 yards on the ground. The Broncos have done an outstanding job on the offensive line this season, allowing just 11 sacks on the year including two last week, though there will be a change up front for the foreseeable future. Right tackle Ryan Harris is out with two dislocated toes, second-year-pro Tyler Polumbus will make his first career start this week. The Broncos are 11th in NFL rushing offense (123.1 yards per game), 16th in passing offense (221.4 yards per game). Orton averaged just 6.6 yards per completion against the Ravens last Sunday, and most of his passes are short passes with the yardage accumulated by yards after the catch by Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Jabar Gaffney or to the running backs in the flat.
Defense:
The Broncos defense is currently ranked first in the NFL. The Broncos are led by outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil. The ultra quick Dumervil is second in the NFL in sacks with 10. Dumervil is short (5'11?) and very strong, with a non-stop motor. The Broncos' defense is looking to rebound from its worst effort of the season. Denver ranks third in the NFL in rushing defense at 86.1 yards per game, but surrendered a season-high 125 to the Ravens. Given the Steelers' affinity for throwing the football, pressure will be on cornerbacks Champ Bailey, Jack Williams, and rookie Alphonso Smith to handle the Steelers receivers, with safeties Brian Dawkins and Renaldo Hill lending support. Dawkins and Hill combined for 15 tackles in Baltimore. Denver linebackers D.J. Williams and Andra Davis combined for 20 tackles against the Ravens, and lead the unit that ranks third against the run.
The Steelers' defense scored twice in the fourth quarter against the Vikings on a 77-yard fumble return by linebacker Lamar Woodley and Keyaron Fox’s 82-yard interception return with one minute remaining. Pittsburgh had four sacks last week and held Adrian Peterson to 89 yards rushing. The Steelers haven't allowed a 100-yard rusher in their last 25 regular-season contests, lead the league in run defense at 76.6 yards per game. Free safety Ryan Clark is unlikely to play due to a rare sickle-cell trait that is aggravated at high altitudes. He is likely to be replaced this week by Tyrone Carter with Troy Polamalu taking his normal role at strong safety and cornerbacks Ike Taylor and William Gay taking on primary responsibility for slowing Marshall and Royal. Nose Tackle Casey Hampton blocks up the middle allowing James Farrior and Lawrence Timmons working behind him to make the tackles. Farrior posted a team-high 15 tackles and a sack against Minnesota.
Key Points:
Pittsburgh has struggled on the road this year, losing two of three, with that one victory a pretty narrow decision against woeful Detroit. The Steelers have come up short in their last five on the road ATS.
The Broncos have won and covered in their first three home games, including triumphs over Dallas and New England, who have both gone on to bigger and better things. Denver has cashed four straight as home dogs.
Pittsburgh has been a bust on Monday night, failing in five of seven ATS. The Steelers are a dismal 6-20-1 as favorites of up to three points. They have ‘covered’ eight of their last 10 against teams on the plus side of the ledger.
The Broncos have ended on the low side in eight of their last nine games at home.
The Steelers have gone ‘over’ in five of six as road chalk and in 16 of 21 versus conference competition.
Denver, which leads the all-time series 13-6-1, has won nine of 12 overall versus Pittsburgh.
Betting Trends:
Steelers are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games Steelers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on Monday Night Football Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games as a home underdog The OVER is 4-1 in the Steelers last five games The UNDER is 8-1 in the Broncos last nine home games
Injury Report:
Broncos
Peyton Hillis RB Not Injury Related Did Not Participate In Practice Jack Williams CB Illness Full Participation in Practice Ryan Harris T Toe Did Not Participate In Practice Out Ryan Mc Bean DE Knee Did Not Participate In Practice Out Josh Barrett S Hamstring Full Participation in Practice Probable David Bruton S Groin Full Participation in Practice Probable
Steelers
Travis Kirshke DE Calf Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Lawrence Timmons LB Ankle Did Not Participate In Practice Doubtful Ryan Clark S Illness Full Participation in Practice Questionable
MNF
A huge Monday Night showdown in the AFC as the defending champion Pittsburgh Steelers (5-2) take on the Denver Broncos (6-1) at INVESCO Field at Mile High. Pittsburgh off its bye enters 0-3 ATS on the road this season and is just 3-22 against-the-number the past twenty-five as 3.5 or less point favorites including 2-10 ATS on the highway. Pittsburgh with a history of playing 'sub-par' regular season football in Denver (2-6, 4-4 ATS) comes in 4-5 SU & ATS away in MNF, 4-4 SU & ATS away after a week of rest. Denver is off its first loss of the season are 3-0 ATS at home this year, 5-1 ATS last six taking points in front of the home crowd including a 31-28 win/cover last time Steelers came calling. Broncos 8-1 SU at home vs AFC North opponents are 8-4 (6-5-1 ATS) home under Monday Night Light's.
Week 9 NFL games
Steelers (5-2) @ Broncos (6-1)-- Denver has only two takeaways in last three games, after 10 in first four; Broncos are 3-0 at home, winning by 21-7-3 pts, with wins over Dallas/Patriots. Pitt won last four games after 1-2 start, scoring 30 ppg (13 TD/38 drives); they're just 1-2 on road, winning 28-20 at Detroit, losing at Chicago, Cincy. Steelers allowed TD on offense/special teams in their last five games. AFC North favorites are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 0-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 6-8, 4-2 at home. Six of seven Denver games stayed under the total; four of last five Steeler games went over. Average total in last three series games is 53.7.
Monday Night Delight a Mile High
By Doug Upstone
AFC powers Pittsburgh and Denver collide in what figures to be one of the better Monday night games in what has been an entertaining season. The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers are 5-2 after their bye week, off a tremendous high after getting past previously undefeated Minnesota. Ben Roethlisberger may be putting up some crazy passing stats in 2009, but it was heroic defensive efforts by LaMarr Woodley and Keyaron Fox that did the Vikings in.
The current four-game win streak has witnessed the Steelers (2-5 ATS) get their vaunted running game back on track (126.2 vs. 81 YPG the first three games), although no other back has scored besides Rashard Mendenhall. While head coach Mike Tomlin has received the usual contributions from Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes, tight end Heath Miller has gotten off to one of the best years of his five-year career, snatching 40 balls for 353 yards and four touchdowns. They will be looking to extend a run of 29-11 ATS when playing against teams with a 75 percent or higher winning percentage.
Defensively, the extra week off can only help the recently-healed Troy Polamalu, who made six tackles and had two passes defended in last contest, after recording only two stops the previous week versus Cleveland. There has also been no Super Bowl hangover from linebacker James Harrison, who is second on the team in tackles (41) and tops in sacks with eight. Unfortunately, Pittsburgh is 1-2 and 0-3 ATS on the road and has now dropped five straight games against the number away from home.
The stellar play of Kyle Orton has made the breakup of Jay Cutler and Denver look like one of those month-long high school flings and not some heavily invested marriage. And while the permanently scowled Cutler deals with throwing to subpar Bears receivers, Orton has his team sitting pretty atop the AFC West with room to spare.
Now, all the preseason predictions of a 5-11 season have faded into the thin Rocky air, as the Broncos (6-1 ATS) have the inside track to locking down a division crown and possibly a first-round bye in the postseason. Thats because Orton has kept it simple in a 6-1 start, and his nine touchdowns and one interception reflect it. Denver is 6-1 ATS against AFC teams playing with rest.
Denvers winning ways have also kept receiver Brandon Marshall quiet and happy after preseason antics to try to orchestrate trip out of town. Instead, fans have witnessed some game-altering performances in home underdog wins over Dallas and New England, with huge touchdown catches. The Broncos are perfect 3-0 SU & ATS at home, having outscored opponents by a 21.3-11.0 margin.
One would also be remiss not to mention the NFLs top total defense and the exploits of linebacker Elvis Dumervil, who has already posted 10 sacks.
BetUS.com established Denver as three-point home underdogs and the number has stuck all week. The Broncos are 10-2 ATS as a home team catching and with the total at 40, are 6-0 UNDER versus good offensive teams averaging 350 or more yards per game. The Steelers are 6-19 ATS as a road favorite of three points or less and 13-5 OVER against conference opponents over the last two seasons. In this head-to-head series, dogs have covered four straight and six of the last seven meetings have gone OVER.
The Steelers cover if Roethlisberger stays patient against very strong and fundamentally sound Denver D. The Broncos secondary can lock up receivers in man coverage, placing greater emphasis on using TE Miller. The normally reliable Denver offensive line had all kinds of problems with Baltimore blitzes last week, which should give Pittsburgh confidence they can get to Orton. Pitt is -3 in turnover margin, improve that number on Monday and victory ensues.
The Broncos cover if Orton does a better job in recognizing the blitz. Though last week he didnt make a lot of obvious mistakes, the check downs were too often in the three-to-five yard range. Coach Josh McDaniels and Orton have to be able to hit receivers moving forward for additional gains. When McDaniels was at New England, they would spread the Steelers defense throwing deep to expand zone and come underneath on crossing routes, with additional room created. Pass catchers Marshall, Eddie Royal and Tony Scheffler are capable of creating such an attack. Expect Denver to play games to free up Dumervil, to use his explosive quickness against Big Ben, who will hold the ball.
System Play - Play On road teams where the line is +3 to -3, having won four out of their last five games, taking the field in November. (36-12 ATS, L12Y)
Tips and Trends
Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos
Steelers (-3, O/U 40): Steelers come off their bye week at 5-2 SU, while only 2-5 ATS. Steelers are 0-3 ATS on the road this season, all as favorites. QB Ben Roethlisberger is 3rd in the NFL with over 2,050 passing yards, including 11 TD's. RB Rashard Mendenhall has 418 yards rushing and four TD's this season, leading the Steelers ground game. Defensively, the Steelers haven't allowed a 100 YD rusher in 25 regular season games. This Steelers rushing defense is only allowing 77 YPG, best in the NFL.
Steelers are 0-5 ATS in last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
Key Injuries - LB Lawrence Timmons (ankle) is questionable.
FS Ryan Clark (sickness) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Broncos: Denver comes off it's first defeat of the season, and will be looking for redemption. This Broncos team is 6-1 ATS this season, including two outright wins as exactly 3 point home underdogs. This Broncos defense is spectacular, as they are 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense at 13.7 PPG. Also, they are 3rd in the NFL in rushing defense. The Broncos have outscored their opponents 64-33 in 3 home games this season. On offense, QB Kyle Orton and WR Brandon Marshall will look to hook up early and often. Rookie RB Knowshon Moreno will likely struggle to run the football, so it's up to Orton and Marshall to lead the way.
Broncos are 4-0 ATS last 4 games as a home underdog.
Under is 8-1 last 9 home games.
Key Injuries - RT Ryan Harris (toe) is out.
DE Ryan McBean (knee) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)