NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 1 Betting Notes
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-10.5)
Why Bills cover: The addition of Terrell Owens gives Trent Edwards two dynamic receivers to stretch the field. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Fred Jackson played well in place of Marshawn Lynch last season and will start again while Lynch is suspended.
Why Patriots cover: Have won last 11 meetings. Tom Brady is back from last season's knee injury. Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in New England and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings overall.
Total (47 1/2): Under is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings in New England and 19-7 in the last 26 meetings overall.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+9)
Why Chargers cover: Have won last 11 meetings. Are 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Oakland and 11-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings overall. Favorite is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.
Why Raiders cover: Are 15-6 all-time at home on Monday Night Football. Chargers' continue to deal with Shawne Merriman's off-field distractions.
Total (43): Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
Streaks, Notes, Trends
By SportsPic
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Bills went 4-0 (3-1 ATS) last September but a repeat would a stretch. First-stringers produced just three points in five preseason games under their new no-huddle offense, QB Trent Edwards still developing seems gun-shy about throwing downfield, two rookies on the offensive line (Wood, Levitre) doesn't help the confidence, RB Marshawn Lynch is serving a three game suspension, this offense is a mess. New England Patriots bolstered by the return of Tom Brady should cruise in the opener. Keep in mind, Bills are 5-12 (9-8 ATS) on the road in September, Patriots have won eleven consecutive encouters with Bills cashing nine of the contests (9-2 ATS) and have won 16 of the past 18 meetings (13-5 ATS) outscoring Buffalo 24.7 to 10.9 in the process.
MNF Doubleheader
By Sportsbook.com
The NFL & ESPN continue their tradition with an opening week Monday night doubleheader. Both games are divisional battles. In the opener, New England hosts Buffalo as a double-digit favorite. In the nightcap, the Raiders welcome the Chargers and will be playing as near-10-point dogs at Sportsbook.com. In both cases, bettors love the favorites at Sportsbook.com. Read on for a brief look at both games then be sure to utilize the GAME MATCHUPS before hitting the confirm button on any wagers.
BUFFALO at NEW ENGLAND
The opening game of the MNF Week 1 doubleheader pits Buffalo & New England in a AFC East showdown. QB Tom Brady returns for the Patriots after missing all of last season while being hurt on opening day. He seems at full strength and oddsmakers have taken notice, making HC Bill Belichick’s team a 10-point favorite. The Patriots have had winning marks in divisional games every year this decade, including 4-2 ATS a year ago, when they missed a playoff berth despite going 11-5. Buffalo was 7-9 in ’08, including 0-6 SU & 1-5 ATS in AFC East play, but has brought WR Terrell Owens into the mix to lift an offense that was 22nd in passing yardage. New England is 10-2 SU & 8-3 ATS in its L12 hosting the Bills, and UNDER the Total is 16-4 in the L20 series meetings.
Prediction: New England by 16
SAN DIEGO at OAKLAND
Oakland’s 2008 season began with hope on a home Monday night divisional contest vs. Denver, only for that optimism to be squashed in a 41-14 rout. The Raiders hope history doesn’t repeat itself when they host San Diego to open this campaign. They come off a season in which they won five games, tying their most since 2002, including the final two. Oakland is a 6-1/2 point home dog, and needs to improve its home record of recent years, 13-33 ATS over the L6 seasons. They also need breakout performances from QB Jamarcus Russell & RB Darren McFadden, both recent high draft picks. San Diego meanwhile is the defending AFC West champ and a prohibitive favorite to return to that perch. The Chargers are 8-5 SU & 11-2 ATS in their L13 visits to Oakland.
Prediction: San Diego 23, Oakland 17
Bills at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers
The opening weekend of the NFL concludes Monday night with a pair of divisional games. The Patriots and Bills kick off at 7:00 PM EST from Gillette Stadium, as New England looks to regain its swagger from the 2007 season that saw Bill Belichick's team finish 16-0. However, the perfect season came to an abrupt halt with the shocking 17-14 loss to the Giants in the Super Bowl.
Things got worse in the opener of the 2008 campaign, as reigning MVP Tom Brady tore his ACL in the first half against the Chiefs. Brady's season was done, and for all intents and purposes, so was New England's. The Pats managed an 11-5 mark behind backup QB Matt Cassel, but finished shy of the postseason, as the Dolphins won the AFC East.
The Bills, meanwhile, made plenty of offseason headlines with the signing of the entertaining, but sometimes destructive Terrell Owens. Buffalo started last season on fire, going 4-0, then 5-1, but then lost eight of ten games to end the year. The Bills burned bettors with a 3-7 ATS mark to wrap up the season, including a 1-5 ATS record when laying points.
Buffalo ran the table inside the AFC East, but not in a positive manner. Dick Jauron's club finished 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS against division opponents, with the lone pointspread cover coming last December in a 31-27 loss at the Jets as an eight-point underdog. The Bills will be without starting running back Marshawn Lynch on Monday, serving the first game of a league-mandated three-game suspension.
The Pats and Bills played two low-scoring games in '08, with New England sweeping the series. The Patriots beat the Bills in Foxboro, 20-10, in Week 10 as 3½-point favorites. New England bounced Buffalo in Orchard Park the final week of the season, 13-0, as 5½-point 'chalk.' The Bills are 1-5 ATS and 0-6 SU in Jauron's three seasons against the Patriots.
Last season, the big ticket that was cashed on Monday nights was the 'over,' which hit 13 of 17 times, including each of the first seven weeks. There was not a huge advantage either way taking the home teams or favorites, as both finished with a 9-8 ATS mark.
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com, says that a healthy majority of the money is coming in on New England. "The line opened at -9½, and has moved all the way up to -10½, and it likely hasn't stopped moving up. I can see that line crossing -11 maybe as far as -13 by game-time. The total also jumped a point up from 46½ to 47½," Scott says.
Most books currently list the Patriots as an 11-point favorite, with the total set at 47½.
vegasinsider.com
Chargers at Raiders
By Judd Hall
This season marks the 50th anniversary of the American Football League, so it only makes sense that Week 1 would close between rivals of that upstart group. The Chargers invade Oakland to take on the Raiders in the 10:00 p.m. EDT game of ESPN’s Monday Night Football.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the line for this game in mid-June with the Chargers as 6½-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½. Over the past two months, sharp money and public perception helped push up the line to 9 ½ with a total of 43.
San Diego comes into the third season of the Norv Turner era with high expectations. It’s not everyday you’ll say that for a team that is coming off of an 8-8 campaign, but this team has the goods. After all, they went to the AFC Title Game in Turner’s first year at the helm.
One of the things that the Bolts didn’t have last year was the services of Shawne Merriman due to torn knee ligaments. He appears to be back at full strength (his choice in women not withstanding) now after logging four solo tackles during limited playing time in the preseason.
Merriman’s presence will no doubt help improve a defensive unit that gave up 349.9 yards per game during the 2008 season. Luckily for the Chargers, they’re getting a team that hasn’t been too impressive on offense.
The Raiders ranked 29th in the NFL last season with just 272.2 YPG gained last year. However, they ranked 10th in the league with 124.2 rushing YPG. VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Jamie Tursini believes this is how Oakland must play to stay in the game. “Of course, the Raiders need to play ball control with their three-headed monster of backs. Starter Darren McFadden, Justin Fargas, and Michael Bush represent which is arguably the deepest set of backs in the NFL. But JaMarcus Russell is the quarterback and he must not make any mistakes including hanging onto the ball too long.”
Tursini makes a great point when it comes to Russell. He had a decent sophomore campaign with 2,423 passing yards with 13 touchdowns to just eight interceptions. However, Russell was sacked 31 times which led to him fumbling the ball 12 times, losing possession on seven off those. Couple that knowledge with him going against a San Diego defense that has pulled down the QB 70 times over the last two years and you can determine that it’s going to be a tough day for Russell.
Defensively, there is nowhere else to go but up for Oakland’s defense. This unit surrendered 360.9 total YPG last season. And if the preseason can be any sort of indicator, then it won’t be a whole hell of a lot better as they allowed 386.0 YPG and 26.8 points per game.
Those numbers don’t bode well when you consider they’re taking on one of the more explosive offenses in football. The Chargers were second in scoring offense last season, averaging 27.4 points per game.
Philip Rivers anchors the Bolts’ attack under center after compiling 4,009 yards through the air and a touchdown-interception ratio of 34-11. It’s hard not to put up those numbers when you have players like Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates and LaDainian Tomlinson at your disposal. That trio accounted for 2,228 receiving yards and 16 scores.
The Chargers were just 2-2 straight up and 1-3 against the spread when posted as road favorites last season. Oakland wasn’t much better as a home pup, posting a 2-5 SU and ATS record in ’08.
The Raiders saw the ‘under’ go 5-3 at home last year, while San Diego saw the ‘over’ go 5-3 away Qualcomm Stadium.
This series has been extremely one-sided over the last five years as the Bolts have won 11 straight battles SU, covering the spread in 10 of those meetings. The ‘under’ is 6-2-1 in the last nine head-to-head meetings.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Monday NFL Doubleheader
By DAVID JONES
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-11, 47)
Offensive issues
Do the Bills (7-9 straight up, 7-9 against the spread in 2008) have enough offense to trade scores with the explosive Patriots? This is the primary concern for Buffalo entering their regular season opener after the struggles of the offense in the preseason.
In 15 offensive series, the first team offense was limited to just a field goal during exhibition action. The club promptly fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert at the end of the preseason.
Buffalo will stick with their new no-huddle offense on Monday, much to the chagrin of new wide out Terrell Owens. The controversial playmaker initially told Boston reporters he was not enjoying the hurry-up offense. He tried to downplay his comments afterwards.
“No, it’s all right, it just gets you a little winded, and for myself I haven’t really practiced much the last few preseason games so I’m still trying to get myself into shape and that’s coming around.”
The trade of All-Pro offensive tackle Jason Peters to the Eagles has left a void up front and the Bills also won’t have their top best running back with Marshawn Lynch serving the first of a three-game league suspension.
The offense will also be seeking to secure the ball better in 2009 after leading the conference in lost fumbles a year ago with 15.
It’s been such a long time
All eyeballs will be glued on Tom Brady’s every move Monday night. The three-time Super Bowl winner hasn’t played a down since the first half of the Pats’ first game last season. New England’s success in 2008 will largely depend on whether Brady can return to his 2007 MVP form, or close to it – especially with some many question marks on the defensive side of the ball.
Last week's controversial trade of defensive lineman Richard Seymour to the Raiders is just the latest example of the turnover in the defense. Mike Vrabel, Teddy Brushci, Rodney Harrison and Ellis Hobbs are also no longer with the Patriots. New England was tenth in the league in total defense in 2008.
“A lot of years of experience have walked out the door in the last couple years,” Brady told the Boston Globe over the weekend. “It’s kind of the evolution of it. The turnover we’ve had is significant. But coach (Bill) Belichick coaches us all the same way.”
Line movement
The Patriots opened as a 9.5-point favorite in the contest with a total of 46.5. New England is now an 11-point choice in the matchup.
Trends
Bill Belichick is 16-2 (13-5 ATS) against the Bills since becoming the head coach of the Patriots in 2000. New England has won the last 11 meetings in the series. The Patriots are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games (playoffs included). The under is 19-7 in the Bills/Patriots series since 1996.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+9.5, 43)
What to expect from LT?
While winning the AFC West for the fifth time in the last six years appears to be a forgone conclusion for the Chargers (8-8, 7-8-1 ATS in 2008) in 2009, their season will ultimately be defined in January.
On offense, the focus is on 30-year-old star runner LaDainian Tomlinson. After his rushing average dropped from 4.7 yards per carry in 2007 to 3.8 in 2008, there are questions about Tomlinson's ability to dominate again at a young man's position.
While LT could be on the decline, QB Phillip Rivers is just coming into his own after leading the NFL in quarterback rating in 2008.
Under pressure
SD’s defense (25th in NFL in total defense in 2008) is hoping that the return of linebacker Shawne Merriman will enable the unit to rebound in 2009. Despite registering 39.5 sacks in his first three years in the league, there are questions about his future in San Diego after last year's injury and his off-field antics.
More of the same?
The dysfunctional Raiders (5-11, 7-9 ATS in 2008) may have given their fans a preview of things to come in the most significant game of the preseason. In the traditional warm up game for the regular season, the Raiders entertained the Saints in Week 3 of the exhibition slate. Oakland's starters were promptly outscored (31-0) and outgained (344-60) in a brutal half of football.
The NFL's worst passing offense in 2008 isn't likely to be much better in 2009. QB JaMarcus Russell doesn't appear to be ready to live up to the expectations of being a first overall draft pick three years ago.
Rookie Darrius Heyward-Bey will improve a marginal group of receivers, but the offense will rely on the ground game in 2009. Second-year tailback Darren McFadden has supplanted Justin Fargas as the starter to begin the year.
“I just think everything he is in terms of being multiple, running the football and catching the football,” Raiders head coach Tom Cable told the San Francisco Chronicle.
After working out some personal issues, Seymour is expected to be on board in Oakland for the opener. The veteran duo of Seymour and Greg Ellis will be counted on to strengthen a defensive line that struggled to stop the run in 2008 (last in AFC in rushing defense).
The secondary, led by star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, should also benefit from an improved pass rush up front.
Line movement
San Diego opened as a touchdown favorite with a total of 44. The Chargers are now favored by 9.5 points while the over/under is down to 43.
Trends
The Chargers are 11-0 (10-1 ATS) in the last 11 meetings in the series. Oakland's 24-72 record since 2003 is the worst in the NFL.
Bills @ Patriots-- Brady's return biggest story as NE goes for 12th win in row in this division series; Bills lost last five visits here by average of 14 points with four of those five games staying under total. Bills are 7-2 vs spread in last nine tries as AFC East road dog, but are just 4-6 if they are getting 10+ points. Buffalo lost last five night games, allowing 31.8 ppg. Five of Patriots' last seven night games were decided by three pts. Pats are 4-8 as AFC East home fave, 7-10 as a double digit favorite. It is unclear how big a mess Buffalo has after firing OC Schonert last week.
Chargers @ Raiders-- San Diego won last 10 series games, taking last five visits here by average score of 27-13 (5-0 vs spread). Bolts are 31-16 as single digit favorite since '03- they won six of last seven night games; five of the six wins were by 19+ points. Raiders lost last 11 night games; last eight losses were all by 9+ points- they're 2-12 as AFC West home dog since 2003, and 20-35-1 as single digit dog in that period. Only once in this 0-10 series skid have Raiders lost to Chargers by less than seven.
Buffalo at New England
The Patriots will try to make it 12 straight wins over the Bills when Monday Night Football kicks off from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Mass.
Bill Belichick’s squad has dominated the Bills, winning 11 straight (9-2 ATS) by an average score of 29-9. The games were closer last season when the Patriots had Matt Cassel at QB instead of Tom Brady, but New England still prevailed 20-10 in Buffalo as a 3½-point favorite in November and then won 13-0 in the season-finale, covering as a 5½-point chalk. The last two times Brady faced the Bills was in the Patriots’ 16-0 campaign in 2007, and New England outscored Buffalo 94-17.
Buffalo opened the 2008 season 5-1 (4-2 ATS), but fell out of contention in a hurry, losing eight of its last 10 games (3-7 ATS). The Bills added outspoken WR Terrell Owens from the Cowboys in the offseason, but he only played in the Hall of Fame Game to kickoff the preseason and sat out the rest of the exhibition campaign with a foot injury.
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Turk Schonert on Sept. 4 after the first-team offense managed just three points in 15 preseason series and head coach Dick Jauron brought in former Bills’ QB Alex Van Pelt to coach the offense. One weapon the offense will be missing tonight is RB Marshawn Lynch, who is suspended the first three games after pleading guilty to a misdemeanor gun charge in March.
New England lost Brady to a season-ending knee injury in the first half of the 2008 opener against the Chiefs, yet the team rallied around Cassel and still managed to go 11-5 (9-7 ATS), falling just short of reaching the playoffs. Now Brady is back under center looking to recapture his form from 2007 when he tossed a record-setting 50 TD passes, led the Patriots to an unbeaten regular season and won the MVP.
Buffalo is on ATS slides of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against the AFC East, but the Bills are 4-1 ATS in their last five September contests and 4-0 ATS in their last four season openers. New England is on ATS runs of 4-1 on Monday nights and 36-16-1against AFC East opponents, but it is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 at home and 0-7 ATS in its last seven at home as a favorite of 10½ points or more.
The Bills have stayed under the posted total in 29 of 43 games as a road ‘dog, five of six season-openers and four of six against the AFC East. The Patriots have topped the total in six of seven overall, four of five against the AFC and nine of 12 season openers. Finally, the under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings in this series and 9-1 in the last 10 in Foxborough.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER
San Diego at Oakland
Like New England, the Chargers will also be looking to make it 12 straight wins over an opponent when they travel to Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum to battle the AFC West rival Raiders in the second game of a Monday night doubleheader.
San Diego finished 8-8 (7-8-1 ATS) in 2008, but won AFC West thanks to a four-game season-ending winning streak (3-1 ATS). In the playoffs, the Chargers beat the Colts 23-17 as a 1½-point home underdog in the wild-card round then went to Pittsburgh and lost 35-24 to the eventual Super Bowl champs in the divisional round as 6½-point ‘dogs.
The Chargers inked QB Philip Rivers to a long-term deal over the summer, coming off his career-best 2008 numbers that featured 4,009 yards passing, 34 TDs and an NFL-best 105.5 passer rating. RB LaDainian Tomlinson ran for a career-low 1,110 yards last season and 12 TDs, his lowest number of scores since his rookie campaign. Defensively, Norv Turner’s squad will be looking to improve on its No. 25 ranking from a season ago.
The Raiders have posted an NFL-worst 24-72 record since reaching the Super Bowl in January 2003. They have lost at least 11 games in a record six straight seasons, including last year’s 5-11 (7-9 ATS) mark. On the bright side, former top overall pick JaMarcus Russell had an 88.5 passer rating in his final seven starts last year, going 3-4 with seven TDs and four INTs.
Oakland has been the center of off-field controversy this year with head coach Tom Cable being investigated for allegedly assaulting defensive assistant coach Randy Hanson and newly acquired DL Richard Seymour failing to show up in Oakland after the trade a week ago. Seymour has said he will be in uniform tonight.
San Diego has beaten the Raiders 11 straight times (10-1 ATS) and scored a 28-18 win in northern California last season as a nine-point favorite, its seventh consecutive spread-cover in Oakland. In December in San Diego, the Chargers got an easy 34-7 victory as a 9½-point chalk, the 13th time in the last 16 meetings the favorite has cashed in this rivalry.
San Diego is on pointspread slides of 2-5 on the road, 2-5 as a favorite and 3-7 when laying 3½ to 10 points, but the Chargers are on ATS runs of 21-7-4 against division rivals and 19-7-1 against the AFC. Oakland is in several ATS ruts, including 17-35-1 at home, 7-19 as a home ‘dog, 0-7 on Mondays and 0-4 in season openers.
The Chargers have stayed below the posted total in seven of 11 against AFC teams and four of five on Mondays, but they’re otherwise on “over” runs of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road and 7-0 in September. The Raiders have topped the total in seven of eight September contests and four of five season openers, but they are on “under” streaks of 6-2-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 16-7-1 against the AFC West and 6-2 on Mondays. Finally, the “under” is 6-2-1 in the last nine Chargers-Raiders clashes.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Gametimepicks.com
Chargers at Raiders
By AllStar.com
It is a battle of polar opposites in the AFC West for the final game of week one. Former Raiders Coach Norv Turner will not admit it, but sources close to Turner say he takes great pleasure in pounding the Raiders. His chances to do so are greatly improved with the return of Shawne Merriman, and impact offensive weapons LaDainian Tomlinson, Antonio Gates, and Chris Chambers back healthy after an injury plagued 2008 campaign.
To say the Raiders are having a typical year would be a major understatement. With reports of Head Coach Tom Cable breaking the jaw of an assistant, the head scratching release of veterans Jeff Garcia and Lorenzo Neal, and trading a future number one pick for the aging Richard Seymour (who has yet to report to the team) The silver and black appear to be on their way to a seventh straight 11 loss season.
Quarterbacks:
The Chargers are feeling good about their future after locking up franchise quarterback Philip Rivers towards the end of camp. Rivers has been everything the team wanted and more. He has taken over as the leader of this team, and is not afraid to yell at teammates if he feels it is needed. In 2008 Rivers had a Dan Fouts like year throwing for more than 4,000 yards, and 34 TD’s to only 11 int’s. Coaches tell us he is under-rated in the league for his decision making skills. With questions about Tomlinson’s durability, look for Rivers to handle the transition from a run heavy offense to a more balanced “o” smoothly.
For the Raiders, the jury is still out on JaMarcus Russell. There is no question he has a big time arm; it just would be nice if he showed a work ethic to go with it. Last year’s numbers (2400 yards, 13 tds, 8 interceptions, and a QB rating of 77.1) would be bad for anybody, but they are a large blinking light when you remember Russell was the first pick in the 2007 draft. With San Diego expected to come after him with speed linebackers Shaun Phillips, Larry English, and the returning Merriman, Russell is going to have to make smart, quick decisions in order for the Raiders to have any chance of pulling the upset.
Running Backs:
Just two years ago LaDainian Tomlinson was the fair-haired boy of the Chargers, this spring there were questions if he would be back. Tomlinson swallowed his pride, re-structured his contract, and comes into the 2009 season with a large chip on his shoulder. When told by a local radio station that he was ranked no higher than sixth in rankings of running backs, he answered “If I felt I was not one of the top five backs in this league, I would retire.” That quote made for good radio, but it is hard to deny the questions about his durability heading into his tenth season. The Chargers have ended their past two seasons in playoff games that saw LT hurt, and unable to play. Most people assume this is Tomlinson’s last year in San Diego, and he plans on showing the league that he still has the skills to make him one of the top play makers in the game. He is backed up by the speedy Darren Sproles, and former Viking Michael Bennett who forced his way on to the roster with a strong camp.
When the Raiders released a depth chart at the start of training camp that had Darren McFadden listed as the third back behind Justin Fargas and Michael Bush, insiders around the league were stunned. How could the fourth pick of last year’s draft fallen so quick? Any questions were answered earlier this week when Coach Tom Cable announced that McFadden was his starter. McFadden was slowed by a turf toe injury in his rookie campaign, and only rushed for 499 yards. Look for a much better year in 09. The Raiders feel their best chance to win games is to control the clock. McFadden is expected to see time as a wideout to make room for Fargas and Bush, and don’t be surprised when he is under center in the wildcat formation.
Wide Receivers:
Antonio Gates, the Pro Bowl Tight End for the Chargers could not stop smiling on the third day of training camp. When asked what was going on, he replied “I forgot how good it feels to run pain-free!” That is good news for Charger fans, and very bad news for teams like the Raiders. Gates was one of many Charger players that tried to play through the pain in 2008, and while still putting up respectable numbers (60 catches, 700 yards, 8 TD’s) look for him to return to double digit TD’s this season. Vincent Jackson has developed into a solid deep threat after his 1000 yard effort last year. Veteran Chris Chambers had four touchdowns in San Diego’s first five games before an ankle injury slowed him down. He is back healthy, and in a contract year. He has the trust of Rivers, and will be one of his go to guys.
With Chaz Schilens sidelined with a broken foot, the spotlight will shine on first round pick Darrius Heyward-Bey. Oakland passed on Michael Crabtree (maybe a smart move in hindsight) to select Bey who has blinding speed, but questionable hands. Until Schilens is healthy, and Heyward-Bey gets his legs under him, look for JaMarcus Russell to find TE Zach Miller. Miller is a big guy with soft hands, who has a knack for making big catches. San Diego is weak at the strong safety position which could mean a big day for Miller.
Defense: San Diego comes into the 2009 season promising to be more aggressive under new Coordinator Ron Rivera. Rivera took over for Ted Cottrell midway through last season, and has gone back to basics. He will allow Merriman and Phillips to do what they do best, rush the QB. He got rid of Matt Wilhelm who most teammates felt was a nice guy, but too soft to play middle linebacker, and replaced him with Kevin Burnett from Dallas. When a member of Chargers front office was asked if there was a guy on the team that he didn’t like, it took less than 3 seconds for the staff member to answer “Burnett” when asked why, the answer was “He is always in a bad mood” That is good news for Rivera who needed some attitude in his group. Mix-in Pro-Bowl cornerbacks Quinton Jammer and Antonio Cromartie, and you can see why SD is picked by many to be in the Super Bowl.
Oakland doesn’t have many highlights on the defensive side of the ball, but they do have a gem in cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha who is considered the best shut down corner in the game. The Raiders are one of the few teams that still use a 4-3 defense. Last season Tackles Tommy Kelly and Gerard Warren struggled against the rush. In order to help them, Oakland brought in Greg Ellis from Dallas, and made the trade for Seymour. John Marshall replaces Rob Ryan as coordinator, and we have been told to look for a more disciplined defense. Kirk Morrison will continue to be the heart and soul of the unit from his middle linebacker position.
Special Teams:
This game features two of the league’s best punters in Mike Scifers from San Diego, and Shane Lechler from Oakland. San Diego put the franchise tag on RB/KR Darren Sproles who will look to prove he is worth his 6 million dollar salary by continuing to make plays in the return game. Bolts PK Nate Kaeding is solid, but has been known to miss an easy kick now and then. Sebastian Janikowski of the Raiders still has one of the strongest legs in the league, and could be counted on to score a majority of the team’s points
Betting Trends:
The Chargers are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 games against the Raiders
The Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games
The Raiders are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games on MNF
Monday Night Football: Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots:
Line: Patriots – 11
Over/Under: 46
Tom Brady is back as the Patriots’ starting quarterback after missing all of 2008, creating very high expectations for the 2009 season. At betrepublic, New England is the odds-on favorite to win the Super Bowl.
Bet Republic does not have the Patriots as their Super Bowl pick (check out all the NFL predictions for this season), but we fully understand why many have chosen them as their pick to win it all.
Pats’ head coach Bill Belichick has reloaded on both sides of the ball. The defense has lost six starters from last year including Tedy Bruschi, Junior Seau, Rodney Harrison, Ellis Hobbs, Mike Vrable and most recently Richard Seymour. The defense is younger and faster but lacks experience and leadership.
New England’s offense has all the pieces in place to dominate every game they play this coming season. The offense that terrorized the league in 2007 has most of its players back including the deadly wide receiving tandem of Randy Moss and Wes Welker. Belichick has added savvy veterans RB Fred Taylor, WR Joey Galloway and TE Chris Baker to the team giving the Patriots more firepower and versatility. The biggest question will be how to distribute the ball to everyone so that everyone feels involved.
The chief offensive concern will be whether Tom Brady and his surgically repaired knee can hold up all season. Defensive Coordinators will be looking to rush Brady as much as possible to test his mobility. If the offensive line gives Brady the time he needs then the numbers could be ridiculous.
Watch Monday Night Football show at sports betting TV. Sonny Palermo and guests give out their top NFL picks.
The Bills have the makings of a solid defense and pass rushers Aaron Schobel and rookie Aaron Maybin will need to apply pressure off the edge to try to disrupt Brady’s timing. DT Marcus Stroud played well in his first year with the Bills and demands a double-team much of the time. Linebackers Kawika Mitchell and Paul Posluszny are very active and sure tacklers. The secondary is young but very skilled featuring cornerback Leodis McKelvin and safeties Donte Whitner and Ko Simpson. Buffalo’s defense will need to play mistake free and aggressive to keep its offense in the game.
The Bills’ offense fell off the tracks last season after QB Trent Edwards was concussed in game five against the Cardinals. He wasn’t as sharp as he was in the first four games and looked tentative which led to a lot of indecision and poor execution. The lack of offense down the stretch forced the Bills to make one of the more daring offseason moves acquiring controversial wideout Terrell Owens.
Everyone knows what Owens can bring to the Bills on the field but it’s the off-field antics that are the concern. So far he has been a model of diplomacy but if the Bills falter all eyes will be watching for an Owens meltdown. His addition should give number one WR Lee Evans less double-teams, which should result in a career year for Evans. The two didn’t get on the field together in preseason so it’s hard to gauge how productive they will be as a receiving tandem.
Starting running back, Marshawn Lynch is suspended by the league for the first three games meaning that Fred Jackson will start in his place. Jackson ran for 136 yards on 26 carries in the second game against New England last season so he should feel comfortable going up against the Pats defense.
The Bills fired their Offensive Coordinator last week so it will be interesting to see how in-sync this unit will perform. The offensive line is the biggest question mark on the team and could be in for a long night.
New England’s defense is led upfront by NT Vince Wilfork who commands a double team giving New England’s new look group of linebackers opportunities to make plays. Last season’s Defensive Rookie of the Year Jerod Mayo is the new face of the defense and is a hitting machine. The Bills will look to exploit the young defense and Lee Evans could have a big night.
We think the Patriots start with a convincing win and look good to cover the pointspread
Monday Night Light's
By SportsPic
The San Diego Chargers will have a golden opportunity to get off to a much-needed strong start to the 2009 campaign on Monday night when they travel to meet the AFC West rival Oakland Raiders. This matchup has been all San Diego in recent years, with Bolts zapping Raiders eleven straight times covering ten of the contests with eight of those victories coming by double-digits. Shouldn’t prove to be any different this year. Defensively, Raiders have historically had trouble dealing with the Chargers' running game and this season with Tomlinson having played in preseason for the first time in recent memory he could inflict serious damage against Silver/Black who are in the midst of a 24-72 (34-61-1 ATS) free-fall including 15-33 (13-34-1 ATS) on home turf outscored 24.2 to 16.6. That said, it bears noting that if newly acquired defensive lineman Richard Seymour suits up it will help Oakland's long-standing problems against the run. Raiders not exactly money grabbers in week one (3-7-1 ATS) enter 0-6 SU & ATS in MNF since falling to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl in January 2003. Chargers with a solid 7-3 mark against the oddsmaker opening the season have won and covered their last three under the Monday Night Light's.
Tips and Trends
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Bills: The Bills have lost the last 11 times they’ve faced the Patriots, failing to cover nine of the 11. No NFL team has ever lost 12 straight regular-season games to an opponent. The Bills have never won at Gillette Stadium, losing eight consecutive times. Buffalo has managed just 33 points in its last five matchups versus New England, a puny average of 6.6 points per game. The Bills last beat New England in 2000. Quarterback Trent Edwards is playing behind a young, reconstructed line that failed to click during preseason. This, along with a failure of a no-huddle offense, contributed to the firing of offensive coordinator Turk Schonert. Terrell Owens missed the last three preseason games, but is ready to play. However, the Bills will be without suspended running back Marshawn Lynch. Buffalo is 3-7 against the spread in its last 10 overall games.
The Bills are 2-6 ATS in their last eight visits to New England.
Key Injuries - Running back Marshawn Lynch is suspended.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
Patriots (-10.5, O/U 47): Tom Brady is healthy again and the Patriots have added to their stable of running backs with veteran Fred Taylor. Brady has a number of dangerous weapons to throw to including Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Joey Galloway. The Patriots have won by an average score of 29-9 during their last 11 games versus Buffalo, all victories. New England, though, is just 3-10 against the spread in its last 13 home contests. The Patriots are breaking in new faces in their secondary, so they could be vulnerable to Terrell Owens and Lee Evans if the Bills can display an effective attack, something they failed to do during preseason when their first-string offense managed only three points in 15 series. The Patriots also no longer have mainstay linebackers Mike Vrabel and Tedy Bruschi along with star defensive lineman Richard Seymour, who was traded to the Raiders.
The Under has cashed 9 of the past 10 times the two teams have played in New England.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (UNDER - Total of the Day)
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Chargers (-10, O/U 43): The Raiders have been the Chargers’ favorite patsy. San Diego has won 11 in a row versus the Raiders, covering all but one time. The Chargers are 6-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last seven games at Oakland. LaDainian Tomlinson has been a big reason for this dominance. Tomlinson has rushed for 1,906 yards and scored 22 touchdowns in 16 games against Oakland. Tomlinson, though, is coming off a career-low in rushing yards with 1,110. Quarterback Philip Rivers broke Dan Fouts’ team record for touchdown passes last year with 34, while throwing for a career-best 4,009 yards. Except for cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders’ secondary is inexperienced and unproven. Rivers has a number of weapons to target, including Vincent Jackson, Chris Chambers and star tight end Antonio Gates. The Chargers are counting on a return to health of linebacker Shawne Merriman to bolster their 25th-ranked defense.
The Chargers are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games versus AFC teams.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)
Raiders: Since falling to Tampa Bay in the Super Bowl in January of 2003, the Raiders have compiled the worst mark in the NFL going 24-72. They have dropped at least 11 games in a record six consecutive years. Oakland enters this season going 3-3 in its last six regular-season games. However, the Raiders look to have problems again this season with an inaccurate quarterback, JaMarcus Russell, and well below-average wide receivers and a vulnerable secondary. The Raiders do have depth at running back with Darren McFadden, Michael Bush and Justin Fargas, along with athletic linebackers and newly-acquired star defensive lineman Richard Seymour. The Raiders have a vocal fan base, yet they are just 7-19 against the spread in their last 26 home contests. They have lost their past five home games to the Chargers by an average of 11.8 points. The under is 5-1 in Oakland’s last six home games.
Since 1997, Monday night division home underdogs of three or more points are 5-15 ATS.
Key Injuries - Running back Justin Fargas (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 16