MNF - Colts at Dolphins
By Chris David
Monday Night Football heads to South Florida this week as Miami (0-1 straight up, 0-1 against the spread) hosts Indianapolis (1-0 SU, 0-1 ATS) in a primetime showdown from Land Shark Stadium.
The Colts didn’t look pretty in their 14-12 victory against the Jaguars last Sunday but they did enough to get head coach Jim Caldwell his first win. Peyton Manning (301 yards) was picked off in the endzone on the Colts’ first drive but he was efficient (28-of-38) for the most part.
Wide receiver Reggie Wayne (10 catches, 162 yards) became the main option for Manning after Anthony Gonzalez (knee) was hurt early in the game. The former Ohio State standout is expected to be missed for two to eight weeks, so the club recently signed Hank Baskett, who was let go by Philadelphia earlier in the week. Even though the Colts’ offense only posted 14 points and they failed to cover as 6 ½-point home favorites, gamblers should be aware they only punted twice and they did turn the ball over twice in the redzone. And, Adam Vinatieri missed a makeable field goal too. The Colts’ new blitz-happy defense held Jacksonville to 228 total yards and constantly pressured QB David Garrard throughout the day.
Miami’s performance last week against Atlanta was sloppy and it resulted in a 19-7 road loss. The Dolphins’ offense (259 yards) struggled from start to finish, and failed to convert on third downs (4-of-11) throughout the game. Plus, the attack had four costly turnovers and four penalties as well. Defensively, the Dolphins did great against the run (68 yards) but QB Matt Ryan (229 yards, 2 TDs) diced up the unit and actually missed putting up bigger numbers.
The Dolphins’ secondary will be tested again this week, in particular a pair of rookies in Vontae Davis and Sean Smith. Even though Manning will be shorthanded without Gonzalez, tight end Dallas Clark could roam the middle freely like the Falcons’ Tony Gonzalez (5 catches, 73 yards) did last Sunday.
Oddsmakers at betED.com opened Indianapolis as a three-point road favorite and the ‘over/under’ at 42. The line has held steady even though a couple outfits are making gamblers pay $1.20 (Bet $120 to win $100) on the Colts -3.
According to VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence and his database (1980-2008), the Colts have gone 10-8 ATS under the Monday Night Lights, which includes a 2-0 mark as a road favorite.
Even though the Dolphins will be playing their first home game on Monday Night Football since Dec. 25, 2006, the team used to be a regular in the primetime slot. Miami’s record versus the number is a less than stellar 25-28 ATS. However, the club have shined as home ‘dogs on MNF, boasting an 8-3 ledger ATS.
The last meeting between these two teams came in Week 17 of the 2006 season, when Indianapolis beat Miami 27-22 but failed to cover as a nine-point home favorite. This setback for the Fins also marked the end of the Nick Saban era in South Florida.
Tony Sparano is the new chief in South Florida and his 11-5 regular season mark in 2008 was surprising to many. A lot of his club’s success last year can be attributed to their turnover ratio of plus-17, which was the best in the league. As mentioned above, they lost the turnover battle (4-0) in last Sunday’s setback to Atlanta. Even more amazing, they only turned the ball over 13 times last year.
Another key strength of Sparano’s team last year was its ability to win on the road (6-2). We mention that because four of the Dolphins’ six losses in 2008 came at home. Miami was listed as a home underdog four times last year and they produced a dismal 1-3 record both SU and ATS.
Indianapolis went 6-3 SU on the road last year but was only 2-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Four of the last five between the two teams have gone ‘over’ the total but some experts don’t believe you’ll see fireworks on Monday. Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet said, “Indy's offense will not have an easy time establishing the run in Miami, and it's worth noting that aggressive 3-4 alignments such as the Dolphins' have often given Manning fits.”
“The trends show that Miami is on an 8-2 ‘under’ run its last 10 at home, and with the "Wildcat" not fooling defenses anymore, we can't see Chad Pennington and Miami's often pedestrian, chew-the-clock offensive attack breaking many big plays.”
The schedule makers haven’t treated Indianapolis kindly in the first month of the season. After this game, the Colts must regroup and head to the desert for a battle against Arizona on just six days rest. You don’t want to call this a must-win for Miami but a sense of urgency is needed considering the team heads to San Diego next Sunday.
ESPN will be providing national coverage of this game at 8:30 p.m. EDT.
2009 Monday Night Football Trends - Weekly Schedule
# The favorites have gone 2-0 SU on MNF this year
# The underdogs have gone 2-0 ATS on MNF
# The ‘over’ has gone 2-0
# The first half has watched the ‘under’ and the underdog go 2-0
# The home team is 1-1
vegasinsider.com
What bettors need to know: Colts at Dolphins
By MATT JOSEPHS
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins (+3, 42)
Turnover story
Miami had a +17 turnover ratio last season which led the league and contributed to its run to the playoffs. This year the Dolphins are off to a bad start after fumbling three times and losing another on an interception against an average Atlanta defensive unit.
Holding the Line
Indianapolis has the horses to put pressure on Chad Pennington with Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis on the edges. Atlanta was able to get four sacks primarily against Miami second year OT Jake Long.
On the flip side, a lot of attention is being put on Colts LT Charlie Johnson who returned to practice on Friday after dealing with a back injury. Johnson managed to overtake third-year tackle Tony Ugoh, who had started there the past two seasons. Indy managed only 71 yards on 31 rushing attempts last week.
Help wanted
The Colts offense lost a valuable cog last week with Anthony Gonzalez going down with a knee injury. Hank Baskett was brought in to attempt to take the place of the former Ohio State wideout. Baskett was never higher than third or fourth on the depth chart while with the Eagles.
Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie will also attempt to fill the void, with the two combining for only nine career receptions in the NFL. Luckily for Indy, Peyton Manning still has Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark. Wayne had 10 receptions in a 14-12 win over the Jaguars while Clark has caught the most touchdowns at the tight end position since 2007.
Monday night magic
The Dolphins have not been on Monday Night Football since November of 2007 when they lost 3-0 at Pittsburgh in a game that could’ve cure the worst case of insomnia. The current Dolphins are excited for their opportunity to showcase this year’s team.
"Monday night is one of the few regular-season games that mimic a playoff-style atmosphere, playoff tempo,'' quarterback Chad Pennington said. "It is always special to play on Monday nights.''
The Colts are used to the extra attention. They’ve played a MNF game every year since 1999.
Trends
The Dolphins are 1-5 over the past three seasons against the spread as a home underdog of three points or less. Miami has failed to cover in 13 of its last 16 games home games.
Indianapolis is 5-2 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the past three seasons. They’ve been in 15 MNF games since 1992 and are 10-5 in those games.
Nine of the 12 games played in Miami between these two teams have gone over the total since 1992.
Line Movement
The Colts opened up at -3.5 but the line has fallen to -3 at many places. The total opened up at 43 and has slowly dipped down to 42.
Weather
The weather may be a factor in this game. There’s a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms with the wind going east at 12 mph. The temperature will be 88 degrees and balmy.
Indianapolis (1-0, 0-1 ATS) at Miami (0-1 SU and ATS)
The Dolphins look to bounce back from a mistake-filled season-opening loss at Atlanta when they welcome Peyton Manning and the Colts to Land Shark Stadium.
Indianapolis held off the Jaguars 14-12 in new coach Jim Caldwell’s debut, but failed to cover as a 6½-point home favorite. Manning (28-for-39, 294 yards, one TD, one INT) had a typical solid outing, but the Colts managed just 71 rushing yards on 31 carries. On the bright side, the Indy defense limited the Jags to 228 total yards (114 rushing, 114 passing).
The Colts lost starting WR Anthony Gonzalez to a knee injury against Jacksonville and he’ll miss several weeks. Also, defensive leader Bob Sanders, who didn’t play last week, has been ruled out again for this contest.
Miami committed four turnovers, including three lost fumbles, which led to 10 Falcons points in last week’s 19-7 loss as a four-point road underdog. The Dolphins trailed 19-0 before getting a garbage fourth-quarter touchdown pass from Chad Pennington (21-for-29 for 176 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) to Ricky Williams with 3:29 to play. The Miami offense produced just 259 total yards, but the defense stuffed RB Michael Turner and the Falcons ground attack, allowing just 68 rushing yards on 27 carries.
These teams last met on New Year’s Eve 2006, when the Colts edged the Dolphins 27-22, but failed to cash as a nine-point home favorite. Although Indy has won the last two in this series, Miami is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS six meetings this decade. Also, the underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last nine head-to-head clashes and the visitor is 8-2 ATS in the last 10.
The Colts have cashed in five of their last six on Monday Night Football, and they’re 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 when laying three points or less on the road. Conversely, Indianapolis is in ATS funks of 2-6-1 overall as a favorite and 2-5 in September.
Miami carries nothing but negative ATS trends, including 3-7 overall, 6-17 at home since 2006 (2-7 last year), 1-8-2 in September, 1-4 as a home ‘dog, 1-7-1 when catching three points or less in South Beach and 1-8-2 in September. The Fish have also failed to cover in Week 2 each of the last four years.
For Indianapolis, the under is on runs of 6-2 overall, 10-4 in September, 6-1 in AFC play and 5-2 in Week 2 action. Also, the Dolphins carry “under” streaks of 6-1 overall dating to last season, 8-2 at home, 10-2 in Week 2, 6-2 against the AFC and 4-0 as an underdog. However, the over is 11-5 in Miami’s last 16 Monday night appearances, and four of the last five Colts-Dolphins battles have topped the total.
Finally, the underdog cashed in both Monday night games in Week 1, and both soared over the total. Going back to the start of last season, the over is 13-4-1 in Monday Night Football.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS
Gametimepicks.com
Colts favored with short-handed offense on Monday
By Doug Upstone
Former divisional rivals will square off on Monday night football when Miami hosts Indianapolis. The teams havent met since 2006 and quarterback Peyton Manning, who works and studies as diligently as any player in the game, is being thrown into an uncomfortable situation. Manning was already starting the season without one of his mainstays, Marvin Harrison, now will be without Anthony Gonzalez who replaced him in the starting lineup.
Gonzalez, will be out of the lineup for at least two weeks and as many as two months due to sprained right knee ligaments suffered last week against Jacksonville. That means Manning will be throwing to unfamiliar targets Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie.
At home in the opener, the Colts thoroughly outplayed the Jaguars, outgaining them 365-228 in total yards, but won just 14-12. Indianapolis is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games coming off a win and no-cover spot.
Miamis key strength last season was ability to play mistake-free football, the question arises after going from 1-15 to 11-5 division champions in one season, are they possibly somewhere in between after turning the ball over four times last week. It should be noted the Dolphins started 0-2 last season and is 8-4 SU & 9-3 ATS against the Colts.
Indianapolis is a three-point favorite with a total of 42 at BetUS.com and theyll face a Miami team that is 6-9 and awful 3-12 ATS at home during the regular season the last two seasons, which will be looking to snap a three-game SU & ATS skid in home openers. The Colts are 15-5 OVER off a close home win by three points or less and the Fins are 9-1 OVER off a road loss.
Indianapolis covers if they can force Miami to continue to make turnovers. Defensive ends Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are noted for disrupting the quarterback and with an immobile target like Chad Pennington, could raise a great deal of havoc. It might be time to bag the stretch running play in the Colts offense. Manning seems to have a more difficult getting the ball to the backs and the offensive line hasnt been able to sustain the blocks long enough for Joseph Addai and Donald Brown to hit the holes. The runners appear better as one-cut-and-go backs. The Indy defense will see a true wildcat offense for the first time and must contain whatever elements and wrinkles the Dolphins might have in store. The Colts are 9-1 SU & 6-3-1 ATS in its September road assignments and 15-8 ATS road chalk of three-points or less.
Miami covers if the offensive line establishes itself. Last week top pick T Jake Long was whipped repeatedly by Atlantas defense ends, in allowing two sacks and getting no push in the running game. The Colts front is better than the Falcons, meaning the Dolphins have to run the ball to set up play-action passes by Pennington and specialty packages. Miamis back seven has to cover up Reggie Wayne and Dallas Clark, making Manning throw to receivers hes unfamiliar with or dump-offs to running backs for short gains. Smack Addai early, since his enthusiasm for taking shots has waned since his rookie season. The Fins are 7-3 ATS taking on winning teams.
The matchup marks the very first Monday Night football game that was played on this exact date in 1970.
Monday Night Angles - Road favorites like the Colts are 13-3 ATS when favored by three to four points the last seven years. Indianapolis is 6-1 ATS vs. non-division opponents, while Miami is 8-3 ATS as a home dog dating back 29 years.
Monday Night Light's
By SportsPic
The defending AFC East Champion Miami Dolphins hope to avoid an 0-2 start when they host perennial AFC powerhouse Colts at Land Shark Stadium Monday night. Fish off a sloppy start to the 2009 campaign getting smacked 19-7 in the Georgia Dome have now lost thirteen of it's last seventeen in September with a cash draining 3-11-3 mark at the betting window. Despite the impressive turn-around last season Fish remain backyards duds going 7-16-1 ATS the past three seasons including 0-3 (0-2-1 ATS) in openers. If Dolphins do a better job of protecting the football, take advantage of Colts inability to contain ground attacks with a steady dose of Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams they could quiet skeptics. Meanwhile, Colts not overly impressive in their first on the field defeating pesky Jaguars 14-12 but losing the loot as 6.5 point favorites have moved their record to 26-11 (21-15-1 ATS) in September and will enter a strong 13-5 (11-6-1 ATS) on the highway the first month of play. Colts 6-3 ATS off a win vs a divisional opponent, 15-8 ATS as road favorites of three or less have been tough cookies under Monday Night Light's winning seven of eight cashing six of those contest (6-2 ATS).
Week 2 Betting Preview
By Lenny Del Genio
Indianapolis (-3) at Miami (42): This is the Monday nighter. After leading the league in TO differential last regular season, the Dolphins have now coughed it up nine times in the last two games. The news keeps getting worse as the Colts have covered seven straight games as a road favorite vs. a non-division opponent. Miami is an awful 3-13 ATS in home games overall, 0-9 ATS at home off an Under and 0-3 ATS in home openers. We told you that the Dolphins were due for a drop off in ’09.
Tips and Trends
Indianapolis Colts at Miami Dolphins
Ravens (-3, O/U 42): The Colts are going for their 11th consecutive regular-season victory. Led by Peyton Manning, the Colts are used to prime time. They have covered the past five times they’ve been a Monday night favorite of two or more points and have won seven of their past eight Monday night games. Indianapolis also is 7-0 against the number as non-division road chalk in September. Indianapolis is 18-3 straight-up during September since 2003. The Colts limited Jacksonville to 228 yards in posting a 14-12 victory last week despite not having star safety Bob Sanders, who remains out. Manning was 28-of-38 passing for 301 yards against the Jaguars while frequently targeting star wideout Reggie Wayne, who hauled in 10 balls for 162 yards and a touchdown. The Colts, though, lost No. 2 wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez meaning second-year pro Pierre Garcon and rookie Austin Collie are in line for increased playing time.
The Colts are 10-4 to the Under in their past 14 September games.
The road team is 8-2 ATS during the past 10 head-to-head meetings.
Key Injuries - Safety Bob Sanders (knee) is out.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is out.
Offensive tackle Charlie Johnson (back) is questionable.
Cornerback Jerraud Powers (groin) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23
Dolphins: Miami hasn’t played on Monday night since Christmas of 2006. The Dolphins’ revamped 3-4 defense held the Falcons to 68 yards on the ground last week and less than 300 yards of offense. However, the Dolphins committed four turnovers and lost 19-7 to the Falcons. The Colts have had problems with aggressive 3-4 defenses in the past. The key for the Dolphins is their running attack spearheaded by Ronnie Brown. Miami wants to play ball control to keep three-time Most Valuable Player Peyton Manning off the field. The Dolphins have lost and failed to cover in their first home game during each of the past three seasons. They also have failed to cover in their second game each of the past four years. Miami is 16-35-1 against the spread in its last 52 home contests. The Dolphins are 1-8-2 against the spread in their past 11 September games.
The Dolphins are 10-2 to the under in Week 2 the past 12 years.
The underdog in this series has covered 8 of the last nine times.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Akin Ayodele (back) is questionable.
Defensive end Matt Roth (groin) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (OVER - Total of the Day)