Lone Star Tussle
By Kevin Rogers
The primetime lights will shine on Cowboys Stadium for the second straight week, as 1-1 Dallas hosts winless Carolina. Jerry Jones' billion-dollar playground in Arlington had over 100,000 fans watch last Sunday night's 33-31 setback to the Giants, the debut of Dallas' brand-new stadium.
Since the departure of the outspoken Terrell Owens to Buffalo in the offseason, the question surrounding the Cowboys was, "Who will Tony Romo throw to?" That question was answered the opening week against Tampa Bay, as the Cowboys QB connected on three touchdown passes of at least 40 yards to three different receivers. Romo threw for 353 yards and no interceptions in a 34-21 victory over the Bucs, silencing the critics for a week, while the Cowboys covered as 4 ½-point road favorites.
The criticism was taking a smoke break for the week, as it came back in full force last Sunday night with Romo throwing three interceptions in the two-point loss to the Giants. Dallas failed to cover as three-point home 'chalk,' staying ahead of the number for only six minutes in the game when Romo scampered for a three-yard score to give the Cowboys a 24-20 lead. Wade Phillips' squad was able to control the ground game, rushing for 250 yards, but the quarterback duel was won by Eli Manning, who threw for 203 more yards than Romo, and came out with the important division victory.
Carolina, meanwhile, is in a funk. Not because of their 0-2 record, but throw in the 0-4 preseason, and the devastating loss in the divisional playoffs to the Cardinals. By that count, John Fox's team last celebrated a victory over the Saints at the Superdome in Week 17 last season.
The Panthers have lost to two playoff teams from a season ago so far, falling to the Eagles and Falcons. The manner in which Carolina lost was different in the two contests. Jake Delhomme completed 11 passes against Philadelphia; unfortunately, four were to players in Eagles' uniforms. All told, the Panthers committed seven turnovers in the opener, despite allowing less than 300 yards to Philadelphia. Carolina was defeated in its division debut last week at Atlanta, 28-20, not being able to cover as six-point underdogs. Delhomme improved mightily from the week before, throwing for over 300 yards with just one interception, but it was not enough for a victory.
For the third straight week, the Panthers, who won the NFC South last season, will be listed as 'dogs. The last time that happened was Week 16 in 2007, when the Panthers coincidentally hosted the Cowboys (Dallas won 20-13, but failed to cover as 10 ½-point road 'chalk'). Fox was known as a great road 'dog play his first five seasons with the 'Cats, going 22-7-1 ATS from 2002-06. Since the start of the 2007 season, the Panthers are just 5-8 ATS when receiving points on the road.
Cowboys' running back Marion Barber is listed as 'questionable' with a strained quad, suffered in the loss to the Giants. If Barber can't go, look for a steady diet of Felix Jones and Tashard Choice to get a bulk of the carries.
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com, says the Panthers are receiving most of the attention from the betting public. "Monday's game is getting majority underdog action, as approximately 92% is on Carolina, which opened at +9 ½. We have since moved the line down to 8 ½," says Scott. The total, which is 16-3-1 to the 'over' since the start of last season on Monday Night, is getting wagered on by the public as well. Scott notes, "The total is receiving approximately 90% of the action on the 'over.' Due to wise action on the 'over,' we have moved that line up from 46 to 47 ½."
VI capper Bruce Marshall feels the 'over' is the right play as far as the total is concerned. "It was only one game, but Delhomme looked to get back in the groove somewhat in the later going at Atlanta after that wretched performance against the Eagles. Mostly, however, I like the "over" because the brisk pace of the Dallas games thus far," Marshall comments. "Tony Romo will be looking to vindicate himself for last week's mistakes, but it nonetheless looks as if the Cowboys have some real pop in their attack, even minus Terrell Owens," Marshall concludes.
The Panthers have hit the 'over' in nine of their last ten games against NFC opponents, with the lone 'under' cashing in the playoff loss to the Cardinals. Marshall points to the defensive side of the ball for Carolina's problems keeping the opposition out of the end zone. "It was not an easy offseason with Julius Peppers' contract problems and the switch at defensive coordinator. Moreover, the Panthers didn't really upgrade themselves too much in free agency, and this no longer looks to be a stout defensive team. These teams are also well 'over' in each of their first two games, and I see the pattern continuing on Monday night at Arlington," Marshall says.
This is the first trip for the Panthers to Dallas since the 2003 season when the Cowboys won a 24-20 decision as three-point home favorites. Dallas has claimed each of the last three meetings in Charlotte, with the last meeting coming in 2007.
The Cowboys are just 1-5 ATS on Monday Night since 2005, with the lone ATS win coming as underdogs at Philadelphia in a 21-20 victory in '05. The Panthers are 2-3 ATS under the Monday Night lights in the Fox era, dating back to '02.
The Cowboys are currently listed as 8½-point favorites in most shops, with the total set at 47½.
VegasInsider.com
What bettors need to know: Panthers at Cowboys
By MATT JOSEPHS
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys (-9, 47.5)
Banged up
Both teams are going to be missing valuable pieces. Carolina is expected to be without linebacker Na’il Diggs (ribs), fullback Brad Hoover (back), strong safety Chris Harris (knee) and defensive end Everette Brown (ankle).
The Panthers defense has allowed almost 320 yards of offense in their two games. Carolina’s allowing 168 yards per game on the ground and has only two sacks.
Barber shop may be closed
Dallas’ injury list isn’t as long but it features running back Marion Barber, who is dealing with a thigh injury. He was listed as a limited participant in practice but coaches say they won’t make the final decision on him until kickoff. Coach Wade Phillips says if he does play, Phillips won’t limit his carries.
Felix Jones and Tashard Choice would replace Marion if he can’t go. Both have proven themselves capable of producing big plays.
The Cowboys are first in the league in rushing and are averaging seven yards per carry. Their offensive line has allowed just one sack against the Giants and Buccaneers. Julius Peppers will have his work cut out for him if he wants to get to Tony Romo.
Quarterback quandary
Both Tony Romo and Jake Delhomme have been struggling mightily this season. Romo’s spotlight is a lot bigger especially since his failures were magnified on Sunday night football last week. He had three interceptions and was only 13 of 29 for 127 yards in a loss to the Giants.
The Panthers have allowed the third least amount of yards through the air this season and have two interceptions.
Jake Delhomme bounced back a little bit last week throwing for 308 yards and only one interception. That’s an improvement over his Week 1 performance where he threw four interceptions and had a quarterback rating of 14.7.
Delhomme has won three of his last four Monday night starts and will be facing a Cowboys secondary that has been gashed for 303 yards per game through the air. Dallas hasn’t registered a sack, interception or fumble recovery yet this season.
Trends
Dallas and Carolina have met 10 times since 1992 with the Cowboys winning seven of the meetings but covering only four. Six of the 10 games have gone over the total. Carolina has actually covered two of its last four games in Dallas.
Carolina has won its only Monday night game in the past three years and is 4-1 coming off a loss to a division rival. So far this season the Panthers have failed to cover the spread in both of their games. The over is also 2-0 in Carolina’s two games this season.
Dallas is 7-3 against the spread in September but has failed to cover its last two Monday night games. Both of those MNF contests went over the total as have both of Dallas games this season.
Line Movement
The game opened with a total of 45 points which escalated as high as 48 but has settled at 47.5 in most books.
Dallas was installed a 10-point favorite with the spread slowly falling to 8.5 at most places.
Weather
It will be a hot evening in Dallas on Monday. The temperature will be around 80 degrees with a light wind at 10 mph heading north. Of course Dallas could shut the roof and turn on the air conditioning.
Carolina (0-2 SU and ATS) at Dallas (1-1 SU and ATS)
The Panthers face a tough task if they are to avoid starting 0-3 for the first time since 1998, as they head to the new Cowboys Stadium to take on Dallas.
Carolina fell 28-20 in Atlanta last week as a six-point underdog after a Week 1 blowout home loss to the Eagles, 38-10 as a one-point pup. The Panthers rank 30th in the league in points-allowed (33 per game), and the defense has registered just two sacks while yielding 168 rushing yards per game through the first two weeks. Offensively, QB Jake Delhomme threw four INTs and lost a fumble in the season-opening loss to the Eagles, but rebounded and played well in Atlanta, throwing for 308 yards and a TD. However, his interception with 2½ minutes left ended the Panthers’ comeback hopes.
Dallas lost a thriller to the Giants a week ago, falling 33-31 as a three-point home favorite, when New York kicker Lawrence Tynes nailed a 37-yarder as time expired to ruin the Cowboys first regular-season game in the new $1.15 billion Cowboys Stadium. Dallas rushed for a 251 yards, but QB Tony Romo was a disaster, completing just 13 of 29 passes for 127 yards with one TD and three INTs, all of which resulted New York touchdowns. Overall, the Cowboys had four turnovers that led to 24 points for the Giants.
Romo’s put up his lowest passing yardage total and second-lowest passer rating (29.6) of his career as a starter. Meanwhile, Dallas’ defense has given up 877 yards in the first two games, third worst in the NFL, and the Cowboys are the only team yet to record a sack or force a turnover.
The Cowboys have won seven straight regular-season games (4-2-1 ATS) over Carolina, but lost to the Panthers in their January 2004 playoff matchup 29-10 as a three-point underdog in Carolina.
The Panthers are on ATS downfalls of 1-6 as an underdog (1-5 as a road pup), 1-4 vs. NFC teams and 4-9-1 in September. Dallas has failed to cash in four straight Monday night games, but otherwise is on positive ATS runs of 6-2 as a favorite, 8-3 in September, 5-2 against NFC squads and 17-8-1 following a SU loss.
Under the lights on Monday, Carolina is 15-9 SU (15-8-1 ATS) all-time, while the Cowboys are 37-28 SU (28-36-1 ATS).
Other than the Panthers 22-10-2 “under” run in September, both these teams have been nailing “over” tickets lately. Carolina is on “over” runs of 8-2 overall, 9-1 vs. NFC teams, 5-0 after an ATS loss and 4-0 as a road underdog. Dallas is on a plethora of “over” streaks that include 4-0 overall, 7-1 in Week 3, 7-2-1 on Monday and 4-1 in September. The “over” has also been the play in four of the last five in this series.
Finally, all three Monday night contests this season have topped the posted total, and the over is 14-4-1 in Monday Night Football since the start of last season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Gametimepicks.com
Panthers need win at Dallas
By AllStar.com
It's only Week 3, but both the Dallas Cowboys and Carolina Panthers feel like they need a win to turn their seasons around. Both teams have lost tough games and haven’t looked particularly sharp this season.
The Cowboys (1-1) try to bounce back from a last-second loss Monday night when they host a Carolina Panthers team seeking its first victory of the 2009 season.
Carolina (0-2) won the NFC South last season with a 12-4 record but is in danger of opening with three consecutive losses for the first time since dropping a franchise-worst seven in a row to start the 1998 season.
Cowboys running back Marion Barber who is battling a quad injury, missed Sunday’s walk-through, and looks to be DOUBTFUL for Monday night. The Boys will use the two headed monster approach with Tashard Choice and the electric Felix Jones rotating series.
Offense: The Dallas Cowboys are ranked 2nd on offense, averaging 420 yards per game. The Cowboys are averaging 184.5 yards rushing and 235.5 yards passing so far this season. The Carolina Panthers are ranked 22nd on offense, averaging 304.5 yards per game. The Panthers are averaging 115 yards rushing and 189.5 yards passing so far this season.
Quarterbacks: Tony Romo's poor performance last week was one of the biggest reasons for Dallas' defeat. He completed 13 of 29 passes for 127 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions, all of which resulted in New York touchdowns. Romo had a passer rating of 29.6 and the 127 yards was the second-lowest of his career. In week 1 against Tampa Romo passed for a career-high 353 yards with three touchdowns and no turnovers while posting a 140.6 rating, fourth-best in his career.
Advertisement
Jake Delhomme was the one receiving most of the blame after the opener. Delhomme threw four interceptions and lost a fumble in a 38-10 loss to Philadelphia but played much better against Atlanta. He threw for 308 yards and a touchdown, but his interception with 3 minutes remaining in the Red Zone with his team down eight ended the comeback bid. Delhomme has one touchdown pass this season to TE Dante Rosario.
Running Backs: The Cowboys could be without Marion Barber recovering from a quadriceps injury. Barber had 18 carries for 124 yards with a 2-yard touchdown, the first in new Cowboys Stadium, but got hurt on a 35-yard run in the fourth quarter. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice are capable tailbacks. The Cowboys rushed for 251 yards against the Giants. Barber and Felix Jones had 124 and 96 yards, respectively.
Jonathan Stewart has been more of a threat to Williams' job security due to an injury-plagued preseason. In spite of that, Williams has gotten consistent goal-line work. The Cowboys have looked miserable defensively through two weeks, so keep riding the Williams bandwagon. Stewart claims to be 90% from a nagging Achilles. The situation is right for the 2008 version of the Williams/Stewart duo to break out on Monday Night. Dallas will try and blitz and pressure Delhomme and the Cowboys give up 184 yards a game on the ground setting up a potentially big night for the Carolina running backs.
Wide Receivers: Roy Williams had only one catch for 18 yards against the Giants due to double coverage. Romo rarely looked his direction. Williams only had four passes thrown in his direction Williams, Crayton and Austin Miles all have to become more involved in the offense. For Carolina Steve Smith and Moose Muhammad are both averaging over 11 yards per catch but neither player has scored a touchdown in 2009.
Defense: Dallas has had little luck slowing down either of its first two opponents, allowing 877 yards the third-worst in the NFL. The Cowboys have been unable to put much pressure on the quarterback, owning the only defense that has yet to force a turnover or record a sack. Last season, Dallas had NFL-best 59 sacks.
The Panthers have two sacks and are 30th in the league in scoring defense, allowing an average of 33.0 points per game. Julius Peppers this season's highest-paid NFL player, was limited to two tackles against the Falcons and is being criticized for the team's poor play. Linebacker Na’il Diggs is out of Monday’s game and DE Everett Brown and SS Chris Harris are doubtful. DT Louis Leonard was lost for the year in week two.
Defensive coordinator Ron Meeks likes to play two-deep zones with limited blitzing. To make that work, the front four must bring pressure. That is not happening and Tony Romo has enough weapons to carve up this defense if the Panthers bring limited pressure.
Dallas leads the all-time regular season series with Carolina, 7-1, winning seven straight since the Panthers notched their only such win against the Cowboys at Texas Stadium in 1997. Dallas was a 20-13 road winner at Bank of America Stadium in the last such meeting, during the 2007 season. Carolina is 0-3 in Dallas since the '97 triumph.
At home the Cowboys are averaging 31.0 scoring, and holding teams to 33.0 points scored on defense. The Carolina Panthers are 0-1 while on the road this season, and 0-2 against NFC opponents. On the road, the Panthers are averaging 20.0 scoring, and holding teams to 28.0 points scored on defense.
Betting Trends:
Carolina is 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as an underdog
Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last four games on Monday Night Football
The OVER is 5-0 in Carolina’s last five road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Dallas’s last four games
Monday Night Light's
By SportsPic
The Cowboys and Tony Romo play host to Jake Delhomme's Carolina Panthers in the Monday Night'r. Romo completing just 13-of-29 passes for 127 yards, one TD, three interceptions in a loss to the Giants last Sunday looks to rebound against a struggling Panther squad limping into Big D with 28 and 8 point losses to Eagles, Falcons behind Delhomme's 55.2% (32-of-58) completion rate chucking one TD, five interceptions over the two game span. 'The Boys' have won seven straight regular season games over the Panthers cashing four of the contests (4-2-1 ATS) however, this one could be closer than most expect. Not suggesting Dallas drops two straight at it's new billion dollar digs, but Cowboys 'D' shredded for 438.5 yards/game (303 PYG, 135.5 RYG) opens the door for Delhomme/Smith to get on track in the passing department, DeAngelo Williams to get his share on the ground giving Panthers a shot at keeping it within striking distance. Cowboys possibly being without top play maker Marion Barber due to a quadriceps injury also hurts their chances at covering the 9.5 point spot. Keep in mind, the first batch of BYES starts next week and Panthers 6-1 ATS on the highway before a BYE are one of four teams heading into a rest week. [Road Dogs Before Bye].
Tips and Trends
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
Panthers: The 0-2 Panthers haven’t started a season with three straight losses since 1998. So this already becomes a crucial game for Carolina considering only three teams that started 0-3 have made the playoffs since 1990 when the NFL expanded the playoff field to 12. Carolina’s defense has noticeably slipped allowing 28 or more points in seven of their last nine games. The Panthers are giving up 33 points this season and have just two sacks. Quarterback Jake Delhomme has committed 12 turnovers in his last three games. Steve Smith remains a premier deep threat, though, and the Panthers are 28-15-1 against the spread as a road underdog under John Fox. They are 34-20-1 against the spread as a ‘dog under Fox. The Panthers have a good track record of bouncing back from a loss covering eight of the past 10 times following a defeat.
The Over has cashed in 8 of Carolina’s past 10 games.
The Panthers are 4-9-1 ATS in September.
Key Injuries - Linebacker Na’il Diggs (ribs) is out.
Safety Chris Harris (knee) is doubtful.
Defensive end Everette Brown (ankle) is doubtful.
Fullback Brad Hoover (back) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
Cowboys (-9, O/U 48): Dallas has defeated Carolina seven straight times during the regular season with the last victory occurring in 2007. Quarterback Tony Romo is looking to bounce back after having one of his worst games ever last week in a home loss to the Giants. Romo was just 13-for-29 for 127 yards and a touchdown with three interceptions. Romo is going to have to play better because Dallas’ defense has allowed 877 yards, third-worst in the NFL through Week 2. Dallas led the NFL in sacks last season with 59, but is the only defense that has yet to record a sack or force a turnover this year. The Cowboys are 0-6 against the spread at home after playing the Giants and 0-4 against the number during their last four Monday night appearances. Star running back Marion Barber may be held out because of a quad injury.
The Under is 15-6 in the Cowboys’ last 21 home games versus an opponent with a losing road record.
Dallas is 17-8-1 ATS following a defeat.
Key Injuries - Marion Barber (quad) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 29 (OVER - Total of the Day)