MNF - Jets at Dolphins
By Kevin Rogers
When the Jets and Dolphins hooked up the final week of the 2008 regular season, Brett Favre and Chad Pennington anchored their respective teams for a shot at the AFC East title. Miami came out with a 24-17 road victory, knocking New York out of the playoffs, and propelling the Dolphins to their first AFC East title since 2000. Things have changed in many different facets as the two teams meet up again Monday night in Miami.
Favre has moved off to Minnesota, while Pennington is out for the season with a right shoulder injury suffered at San Diego. Also, Rex Ryan is the man patrolling the sidelines in place of Eric Mangini, who was fired days after the Jets' late season meltdown. Ryan's defensive philosophy brought over from his days as the defensive coordinator of the Ravens has paid dividends through the first month at his new job.
The Jets are 3-1 out of the gate, thanks to strong defensive efforts in each contest. New York has allowed only three offensive touchdowns this season, while facing four teams that rank in the top half of the league in yards per game. Only one team, New Orleans, has eclipsed the 300-yard plateau against New York, despite scoring only one offensive touchdown (the Saints tallied two defensive touchdowns).
Rookie Mark Sanchez is leading the Jets' offensive attack, which until last week, limited turnovers. The Jets equaled their turnover amount from the first three weeks combined in the New Orleans loss, giving the ball away four times against the Saints. Sanchez has thrown for less than 175 yards in each of the last three games after a 272-yard effort in the opening week win at Houston, 24-7. Sanchez will be helped out at wide receiver, as the Jets acquired Braylon Edwards from the Browns on Wednesday to bolster the passing game.
The Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing after four weeks, thanks to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams anchoring the attack. This isn't all attributed to the "Wildcat" offense in which Brown stands in shotgun formation, but it has proven to be a success so far. The running game has been good to the Dolphins also on the defensive side, ranking second in the league in rushing defense, allowing 61 yards/game.
Miami faced one of the more difficult schedules to begin the season, facing three playoff teams from a season ago, the Falcons, Colts, and Chargers. The Dolphins started the season not only 0-3 straight-up, but 0-3 against the spread. Miami was held below 300 yards in total offense in losses at Atlanta and San Diego, but accumulated massive rushing stats in the two home games against the Colts and Bills. The Fins rushed for 239 yards against Indianapolis in a 27-23 loss, while compiling 250 yards on the ground in a 38-10 blowout of Buffalo last week.
Chad Henne will be making only his second career start on Monday, in place of the injured Pennington. The learning curve is sped up by about a season, as Henne was expected to be the starter when Pennington would potentially retire, or not be re-signed by Miami. Henne was put in a tough spot at San Diego, despite the Dolphins leading, 6-3. The Chargers eventually took the lead on a Philip Rivers' touchdown run, then sealed the game with an Eric Weddle interception return for a touchdown off Henne for a 23-13 victory. Henne finished the San Diego game completing 10 of 19 passes for 92 yards and the one interception.
Henne's numbers improved against Buffalo, throwing for 115 yards, including a touchdown pass to rookie receiver Brian Hartline. The game plan against the Bills wasn't terribly difficult, as the Dolphins concentrated on running the ball versus a defense that allowing over 220 yards on the ground against New Orleans the week prior.
VI capper Bruce Marshall sees a low-scoring affair at Landshark Stadium, "Defenses should dominate in what should be a slower-paced game. Henne didn't have to do much in his first start last week. We doubt the Miami running game is going to do much versus the Jets' active front seven, so Henne will be forced to make more happen than a week ago." On the opposite side, Marshall says the Jets' rookie signal-caller won't be in for a picnic, "Sanchez might not find the going much easier for the Jets, but the dominant platoon in this game appears to be the Jets' defense. We prefer the Jets and would take a good look at the 'under' as well."
The Jets have owned this series over the years, going 8-2 SU the last ten meetings, while posting an 8-1-1 ATS mark. The Dolphins are 3-8 ATS at home, including a 1-4 ATS record as a home 'dog under Tony Sparano. Since 2004, Miami is 4-12 ATS at home off a SU victory, including a 1-5 ATS mark last season.
Monday Night Football has been the place to light up the scoreboard dating back to the start of last season, with the 'over' hitting in 18 of 23 games (with one push). Monday's total of 36 is the second-lowest in this span, with the 34 ½ between Baltimore and Pittsburgh in Week 4 last season being the lowest.
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager of BetEd.com says the road team is seeing plenty of the money go their way, "The Jets are currently the popular team, more so since they traded for Braylon Edwards earlier this week. The Jets have been a public favorite since Week 2 and this game is no exception. The action is heavily one-sided with the Jets holding over 90% of the early bets."
Thanks to the large amounts of money wagered on the Jets, Scott moved the line, "We've adjusted the 'vig' towards the favored Jets. We aren't sure how much of an impact Edwards will make his first game out, so the line does not reflect the trade - just the money wagered. We will only move the spread and juice along with the incoming volume."
The Jets are listed as two-point road favorites in most spots, with the total set at 36.
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What Bettors Need to Know: New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
By Covers.com
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 36)
Line movement
Oddsmakers opened this AFC East tilt with the home side getting a point, but the betting public has pushed the line up to +2.5 since. The total opened at 36, then bounced up to 37 at most shops. It has settled back to 36 since.
Weather
It should be a perfect night for Monday Night Football at Land Shark Stadium. The temperature is expected to be around 85 degrees with only a 10 percent chance of precipitation.
Remember me?
Jets head coach Rex Ryan knows a thing or two about stopping the Dolphins offense. He helped the Ravens force six turnovers and limit Miami to just 22 points in two meetings last season as Baltimore’s defensive coordinator.
Miami sees a lot of similarities to Baltimore’s defense last year and Ryan’s group in New York.
“They’re running all the same stuff that we saw twice last year,” Dolphins running back Patrick Cobbs told the New York Daily News. “That’s probably the best advantage we have is that we saw it twice last year.”
Gang Green has allowed just three offensive touchdowns in four games this season.
Ryan also gets outside linebacker Calvin Pace, who the head coach calls his best pass rusher, back from a four-game suspension.
On the receiving end
There are mixed opinions on whether newly acquired receiver Braylon Edwards will have a big impact on Monday’s game. The Jets traded for the former Cleveland playmaker at the beginning of the week and noise out of New York says Edwards will start against the Fish.
“We expect him to be starting Monday night,” Ryan told reporters. “We’re fortunate he’s played in similar systems. Hopefully he can get up to speed, and if we have to have a wristband [with the plays on it] with him, we will.”
While the Dolphins respect Edwards’ talents, they’re not sure Edwards will pose much of a threat so soon after the trade.
“You have to also take into perspective that he’s new, he’s coming in and he really doesn’t know the offense like that,” Fish DB Sean Smith said. “So I’m not expecting to see him for four quarters like an every-down receiver.”
The importance of Edwards performing well in his first game with his new team was augmented when Jets No. 1 receiver Jerricho Cothchery missed practice this week.
Cothchery made the trip to Miami but he’s still considered questionable. Don’t forget either that New York sent its No. 2 receiver (Chansi Stuckey) to Cleveland in the Edwards trade.
Trash talk
The week started off with a bang when Dolphins linebacker Channing Crowder told reporters what he thought off Jets running back Leon Washington.
“We do not like each other,” Crowder, who’s played against Washington regularly since college. “I hated him. I hate him now.”
Washington responded by instructing the press to relay this message: “I eat clam chowder for breakfast.”
Gross.
Let’s hope Mark Sanchez is bringing his earmuffs because Crowder also promises to cuss out the rookie starting quarterback.
Trends
The Jets are on a remarkable ATS (against the spread) run versus their divisional rival. New York has covered the number in nine of the last 10 matchups against the Dolphins.
Of course the one ATS win for the Fish came in the two sides’ most recent meeting, a 24-17 road win for Miami last December.
The trend gets even better if you look deeper into the two teams’ series history. The Jets are 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings.
The under is 3-1 for the Jets this season and 7-3 in Miami’s last 10 games dating back to last year.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins
The fans at Land Shark Stadium will be treated to a game between the New York Jets and the Miami Dolphins when they take their seats on Monday.
Oddsmakers currently have the Jets listed as 3-point favorites versus the Dolphins, while the game's total is sitting at 36½.
Jerricho Cotchery hauled in five balls for 71 yards for New York in its 24-10 loss to New Orleans in Week 4.
New Orleans covered as 6.5-point home favorites, while the teams played UNDER the 48-point total listed by oddsmakers.
Ronnie Brown rushed for 115 yards on 20 carries with two touchdowns, as the Dolphins cruised past the Bills 38-10 in Week 4.
Miami cashed as 1-point home underdogs, while the game played OVER the 37.5-point total set by sportsbooks.
Team records:
New York: 3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS
Miami: 1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After being outgained are 5-5
When playing within the division are 6-4
Miami most recently:
When playing in October are 3-7
When playing on grass are 6-4
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing within the division are 5-5
A few trends to consider:
NY Jets are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Miami
NY Jets are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Miami's last 15 games
Miami is 10-5 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Next up:
NY Jets home to Buffalo, Sunday, October 18
Miami home to New Orleans, Sunday, October 25
NY JETS (3 - 1) at MIAMI (1 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 38-22 ATS (+13.8 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 2-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 3-1 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS at MIAMI
NY JETS: 38-22 ATS Away vs. division
MIAMI: 4-14 ATS in home games
NY JETS vs. MIAMI
NY Jets are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games
Miami is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Miami is 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets
N.Y. Jets (3-1 SU and ATS) at Miami (1-3 SU and ATS)
After suffering the first loss of his career, Jets’ rookie QB Mark Sanchez will try to get back on the winning track with they visit Land Shark Stadium for an AFC East showdown with the Dolphins.
New York fell 24-10 in New Orleans last weekend, coming up short as a 7½-point underdog, ending a three-game SU and ATS win streak to open the season. Sanchez had a rough outing, completing just 14-of-27 throws for 138 yards with no touchdowns and three INTs, one of which was returned for a score. For the season, Sanchez is completing 57 percent of his throws for 744 yards with four TDs and five INTs.
Miami broke into the win column last weekend with a 38-10 blowout home win over the Bills, easily cashing as a one-point chalk. After scoring just 43 points through the first three games of the season, the Dolphins had a breakout game versus Buffalo, rushing for 251 yards and picking off Buffalo QB Trent Edwards three times, with one returned for a score. Miami QB Chad Henne, in his first career start, was 14-for-22 through the air for 115 yards and one touchdown.
The Dolphins snapped a five-game losing streak to New York with a 24-17 road win in the regular-season finale last December, cashing as a three-point road ‘dog, a victory that clinched the AFC East title for Miami and ended the Jets’ playoff hopes. Despite that result, the Jets have dominated this rivalry of late, going 20-5-2 ATS in the last 27 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 visits to South Beach. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five series matchups with the road team 4-0-1 ATS in those five.
New York has cashed in seven of its last 10 as a road favorite of up to three points, but it is on ATS slides of 1-8 in October, 0-4 following a SU loss, 1-5 as a road favorite and 1-4 in Week 5 games. Miami is 5-1 ATS in its last six October outings and 5-1 in its last six against AFC East teams, but otherwise the Dolphins carry negative pointspread numbers of 1-4 dating to last season, 14-36-1 at home, 0-4 as a ‘dog, 1-5 as a home ‘dog and 2-8 following a win of more than 14 points.
On Monday night, New York is 17-22 SU (20-28-1 ATS) while Miami is 38-34 SU (39-32-1 ATS). But on the road on Monday night, the Jets are 7-15 SU (11-11 ATS) while the Dolphins are 32-18 at home (29-21 ATS) in this prime-time contest, including a 27-23 loss to Indianapolis as three-point home pup in Week 2.
The Jets have gone over the posted number in four of their last five Monday games, but otherwise they’re on “under” streaks of 5-1 overall, 5-0 as a road favorite, 4-1 in October and 5-2-1 against AFC East rivals. The Dolphins have gone over the total in 12 of 17 Monday games, but they’ve stayed “under” the total in 11 of 15 overall, five of six as a ‘dog, seven of eight in Week 5 and six straight following a spread-cover.
Finally, the over is 4-1 in Monday night contests this season.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER
Don't Ground Jets
By SportsPic
Jets fearsome defense stopped the Saints twice on fourth-and-short and held Brees to 190 yards passing, no touchdowns yet New York suffered it's first defeat. Saints own 'D' schooled rookie QB Mark Sanchez sacking the pivot four times, picking him off three times in a 24-10 victory. Don't ground Jets and their pilot just yet, they have an easy flight coming up. Although Jets run stop unit (100.3 RYG) will be tested by Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams keep in mind Jets held the pair to a combined 82 RYG average in two meetings last season. A great spot for Jets, they're 21-7 (22-5-1 ATS) on the highway stuffing the opponents ground game (<100 RYG). As for the rookie QB, bounce back time, Sanchez and his crew should do a number against Miami's secondary shredded for 238.5 passing yards/game. Jets have enjoyed success against rival Dolphins winning 8-of-10 with an 8-1-1 mark at the betting window. A deeper dive shows Jets an awesome 8-3 as visitor in the series with a near perfect 10-1 mark against-the-oddsmaker. As for Monday Night Light's, Jets are 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) vs Dolphins.
Tips and Trends
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins
Jets (-1, O/U 36): The combination of new coach Rex Ryan, rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez and the No. 4 ranked defense in the NFL helped the Jets win their first three games. But now the Jets are on the road for a second straight week following their first loss, 24-10, at New Orleans. The Jets held the potent Saints’ offense to 10 points, but Sanchez was picked off three times. New York has failed to cover in eight of its last nine October games. The Jets also are 4-11-1 against the spread when facing a team with a losing record. New York will have standout linebacker Calvin Pace available for the first time this season following an end to his four-game suspension. Newly acquired wide receiver Braylon Edwards will be in uniform, too, giving Sanchez a dangerous deep threat. The Jets have covered 10 of their last 11 at Miami.
The Under has cashed in 5 of New York’s past six games.
The Jets have gone Under during their last 4 road contests.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is questionable.
Cornerback Lito Sheppard (quad) is doubtful.
Cornerback Donald Strickland (ankle) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (Side of the Day)
Dolphins: Miami finally broke through in the win column for the first time in four games, blowing out Buffalo 38-10 at home last Sunday. The game marked Chad Henne’s first NFL start. Henne is replacing the injured Chad Pennington, out for the season. Henne was sacked six times in the win. Miami rushed for 250 yards in the victory. The Dolphins lead the NFL in rushing, averaging 183.5 yards per game on the ground. Ronnie Brown entered Week 5 ranked No. 3 in the NFL in rushing. Miami frequently uses a wildcat formation, a formation in which they have yet to throw a pass. The Dolphins have covered only 28 percent of their last 51 home games going 14-36-1 against the spread. The Dolphins have failed to cover nine of the past 10 in this series. They are 0-6 against the number the last six times they’ve hosted the Jets.
The Under is 11-4 in Miami’s last 15 games.
The Dolphins are 1-5 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - Quarterback Chad Pennington (shoulder) is out.
Linebacker Joey Porter (hamstring) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17