Saturday Divisional Playoffs
By Kevin Rogers
After three of four underdogs cashed during Wild Card weekend, the two Saturday games in the Divisional Playoffs employ short pointspreads heading into the second weekend of the NFL postseason. The Packers try for their second road win in as many weeks as Green Bay travels to Atlanta at night, but we'll begin in the Steel City with an AFC North showdown between two rivals playing the all-important round three.
Ravens at Steelers
It's a defensive battle made in heaven when Baltimore invades Heinz Field for the second time this season. The Ravens advanced to the second round for the third straight season following a 30-7 blowout of the Chiefs as three-point road favorites. Now the task for John Harbaugh's club is to knock off their division rivals, while avenging a Week 13 home loss to the Steelers.
Pittsburgh received a first-round bye and a home game in the second round thanks to a 41-9 thrashing of Cleveland in Week 17. The Steelers finished the season with wins in six of their last seven games, including a 13-10 comeback victory at Baltimore in early December on a Sunday night. The key play in that win was Troy Polamalu's sack of Joe Flacco late in the fourth quarter, setting up the Steelers deep in Ravens' territory. Pittsburgh would cash in with a Ben Roethlisberger touchdown pass to Isaac Redman with three minutes remaining to give the Steelers an outright victory as three-point underdogs.
The Ravens won their fifth straight contest with the Wild Card rout at Kansas City, including their fourth consecutive victory on the highway. Flacco put together his best playoff game in his short career with 265 yards passing and two touchdowns, while the Baltimore defense held the Chiefs to just 161 yards of offense. Kansas City turned the ball over three times and could never get leading receiver Dwayne Bowe involved, as the former LSU star was held without a catch.
Baltimore captured the first meeting this season in Western Pennsylvania with a 13-10 triumph back in Week 4. Roethlisberger was serving the final game of a four-game suspension, as the Steelers' offense stalled with Charlie Batch under center by accumulating 210 yards. Pittsburgh had an excellent chance to start 4-0 without Big Ben, but Flacco's late touchdown pass to T.J. Houshmandzadeh gave Baltimore the victory as two-point underdogs.
Pittsburgh finished the regular season at 5-3 SU/ATS at home, as all three losses came to the other three playoff teams remaining in the AFC. The closest defeat came to the Ravens, while falling by 13 to the Patriots (Week 10) and five to the Jets (Week 15). Polamalu is expected to play this week after missing two of the final three regular season games with an Achilles' injury.
There are no significant trends from a totals standpoint, but the Ravens have cashed the 'under' in six of nine road games this season. Pittsburgh went 5-3 to the 'under' in eight home contests, including five of seven 'unders' with the total set at 41 or less. Baltimore's defense has limited seven of the last 10 opponents to 13 points or less, with the 'under' hitting in six of those seven games.
The Steelers are listed as three-point favorites (even though you would have to pay $1.20 or $1.25 'juice'), but that number is moving up to 3½ at several books. The total remains at a steady 37 across the board, as snow is expected this weekend in Pittsburgh with temperatures in the low 30's. The game kicks off at 4:30 PM EST and will be televised nationally on CBS.
Packers at Falcons
The top-seed in the NFC takes the gridiron on Saturday night as Atlanta owns home-field advantage for the first time in franchise history when it hosts Green Bay. Matt Ryan looks for another first against the Packers - his first playoff victory as the Falcons are 0-1 in the former Boston College standout's only postseason game.
Green Bay advanced to this round after holding off Philadelphia, 21-16 on Sunday as one-point road underdogs. The Packers built an early 14-0 thanks to a pair of touchdown tosses by Aaron Rodgers, while unheralded rookie running back James Starks rushed for 123 yards. The Eagles rallied back to cut the deficit to five points in the final four minutes, but a late Michael Vick interception sealed the victory for Green Bay.
Mike McCarthy's club has basically been playing elimination games over the last three weeks after capturing home wins over the Giants and Bears to qualify for the postseason. The Packers will keep games close as all six losses are by four points or less. Unfortunately, that doesn't really apply for Saturday's contest at the Georgia Dome, as the line keeps dropping below a field goal.
The last meeting between these two teams was decided by three points when the Falcons knocked off the Packers in Atlanta, 20-17 in Week 12. This game came down to the wire as Rodgers tied things up with a 10-yard touchdown toss to Jordy Nelson, but Matt Bryant's field goal in the final seconds gave Atlanta a crucial victory. The Packers outgained the Falcons, 418-294, while Rodgers threw for 344 yards and ran in a touchdown.
The Falcons lost just three regular season games (all to playoff teams), as Atlanta finished the season with covers in seven of the final eight contests. As a favorite, the Falcons compiled a 10-4 ATS mark, while putting together a 7-2 ATS ledger as 'chalk' of six points or less.
Ryan's lone playoff appearance came in 2008 as the Falcons fell at Arizona, 30-24 in the Wild Card round as short underdogs. The Cards jumped out to a 14-3 lead after Kurt Warner threw a pair of long touchdowns, but the Falcons responded with two scores before the half to take a 17-14 advantage. Arizona outscored Atlanta, 16-2 in the second half to advance to the Divisional Playoffs en route to the Super Bowl.
The number from a totals standpoint that sticks out is Green Bay's 8-1 'under' mark on the road, including last week's 'under' at Philadelphia. Coincidentally, the lone 'over' cashed with Matt Flynn starting at quarterback in a 31-27 defeat at New England, while holding the other eight opponents to 20 points or less. Green Bay is listed as an underdog for just the fourth time this season, as the Packers own a 2-1 SU/ATS record when receiving points.
The Falcons are listed as 2 to 2½ point-favorites depending on where you shop, while there are several 1½ and 3's lingering out there. The total is set between 43½ and 44½, dropping down from the opening number of 45½. The game kicks off at 8:00 PM EDT from the Georgia Dome and will be televised nationally on FOX.
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NFL Playoff Betting: Ravens, Steelers Round 3
By: Michael Robinson
The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers will get to settle their brutal AFC North rivalry on the field when they kick off the divisional playoff round on Saturday afternoon.
Bookmaker.com has Pittsburgh as three-point home ‘chalk’ (minus 130) with a total of 36 ½-points. That’s easily the lowest total of the four weekend games.
Baltimore (13-4 straight-up, 9-7-1 against the spread) is coming off a dominant 30-7 win at Kansas City as three-point favorites. The Ravens trailed 7-3 before scoring a touchdown right before halftime. They then capitalized on four second-half turnovers for the blowout.
The Ravens appear to be peaking at the right time, winning five straight (4-1 ATS). They’re 6-3 SU and 6-2-1 ATS on the road this year.
Baltimore’s defense ranked third during the regular season in points allowed (16.9 PPG). The ‘D’ has allowed 10 points or less the last three games, helping the ‘under’ go 3-0. The ‘under’ is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last eight playoff games and 11-4-1 in its last 16 road tilts.
John Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS during wild-card weekend in his three years as coach. He’s 1-1 SU and ATS in the divisional round, losing at Indianapolis last year (20-3) and winning at Tennessee (13-10) two years ago. That 2008 playoff run ended at Pittsburgh in the AFC title game, 23-14 as six-point ‘dogs.
Pittsburgh (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) started the year in tumultuous fashion with Ben Roethlisberger’s four-game suspension. However, it went 3-1 SU with its quarterback out and took the AFC North tiebreaker over Baltimore with a better division record.
The Steelers have also played well down the stretch. They’re 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last seven, with the only SU loss to the NY Jets (22-17) on Dec. 19. They’re 5-3 SU and ATS at home, compared to 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS away.
Coach Mike Tomlin had to be rooting for a Kansas City win yesterday, but this matchup provides better drama. All four divisional round contests are rematches of games this season. The Jets and Patriots are another division tilt, whose bad blood may even surpass this AFC North showdown.
Pittsburgh and Baltimore split the two meetings this year, with the road team winning and ‘covering’ each time. Roethlisberger was still suspended for the Oct. 3 home game, with Charlie Batch getting the start. Baltimore’s Joe Flacco had 256 yards passing and threw the game-winning touchdown with 32 seconds left for a 17-14 win.
Roethlisberger did play Dec. 5 in Baltimore, turning the trick with a game-winning pass with under three minutes remaining (13-10 win). Flacco had a huge late fumble that led to the Pittsburgh score. He has a whopping 11 turnovers in his seven career games against Pittsburgh.
Flacco and Baltimore are 0-5 SU (1-3-1 ATS) in games against Roethlisberger, 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS) with ‘Big Ben’ out. Six of the seven games have been decided by four points or less, so it’s likely to come down to a big play by one of the quarterbacks.
Baltimore fans would feel a lot better about getting the running game going with Ray Rice. However, Baltimore averaged just 58 yards rushing in the two games against Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense (62.8 YPG). Pitt did slightly better at 69 YPG rushing.
Baltimore could get back linebacker Tavares Gooden (shoulder injury) and safety Tom Zbikowski (back), but the defense won’t be hurt much if both backups are out. Pittsburgh defensive end Aaron Smith (tricep) could return after being gone since October.
Kickoff from Heinz Field will be 1:30 p.m. (PT) on CBS. Early weather reports have it in the 20s with a few snow showers.
NFL Playoff Betting: Packers at Falcons
By: Stephen Nover
The Atlanta Falcons had the best record in the NFC, were idle last week and host Green Bay in a divisional round playoff game Saturday night.
Even with all that going, the Falcons are just two-point favorites against the Packers. The ‘over/under’ is 45½. Game time is 5 p.m. PT on FOX.
The Packers have gained tremendous respect the past three weeks beating the New York Giants, 45-17 as three-point home favorites, defeating Chicago 10-3 as 11-point home ‘chalk’ and getting past Philadelphia on the road this past Sunday, 21-16 as two-point underdogs.
Atlanta is 13-3. The Falcons are 20-2 at Georgia Dome with Matt Ryan as their starting quarterback. They are much healthier than Green Bay.
But the 11-6, sixth-seeded Packers are highly dangerous because quarterback Aaron Rodgers is hot and their well-coached defense under coordinator Dom Capers is playing at a high level despite multiple injuries.
Clay MatthewsRodgers had the third-highest passer rating, while ranking seventh in passing yards at 3,922 and throwing 28 touchdown passes. He has an eight-to-one touchdown-to-interception ratio in his last three games, including throwing for three scores against the Eagles. He could be highly effective playing on carpet inside Atlanta’s dome stadium.
Sparked by Rodgers and a defense that ranked second in fewest points allowed, Green Bay had a plus 148 scoring differential. This was second-best in the league next to New England. The Packers accomplished this despite having 15 players on injured reserve.
Green Bay is 25-12-1 ATS in its past 38 road contests and 15-5-1 ATS as a road ‘dog. But what makes the Packers really dangerous is they finally launched an effective ground game, something that had been missing all season.
Rookie James Stark rushed for 123 yards on 23 carries against the Eagles, achieving a season-high for a Packer runner. Now the Falcons have to worry about Rodgers’ play-action something they weren’t concerned with when the teams met at Georgia Dome on Nov. 28.
The Falcons won that game, 20-17, as 2 1/2-point favorites on a 47-yard field goal by Matt Bryant with nine seconds left. The combined 37 points went ‘under’ the 47½-point total.
The Packers never led in that game, but outgained the Falcons by 124 yards. Green Bay tied the Falcons with 56 seconds left on a 10-yard touchdown pass from Rodgers to Jordy Nelson.
Ryan had his fifth-best passer rating of the season at 107.9 against the Packers completing 24 of 28 passes for 197 yards and one touchdown. Michael Turner rushed for 110 yards on 23 carries with one touchdown.
Ryan has a 28-to-nine touchdown-to-interception ratio on the season. Roddy White led the league with 115 receptions, an Atlanta team record. The Falcons surrendered just 23 sacks, third-lowest in the league.
Since Mike Smith took over as head coach three seasons ago, the Falcons have won 20 of 24 home games. They have covered seven of the past eight times they’ve been favored.
Atlanta’s defense has shown improvement down the stretch recording 12 sacks with seven interceptions and giving up an average of only 185.6 yards per game during the last five games. The Falcons had eight of those sacks in two games against Carolina, which had the worst offense in the NFL and started overmatched rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen.
The Falcons have committed just seven turnovers in their last nine games.
The Packers ranked fifth in total defense and were sixth in takeaways with 32. Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams are one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL.
The Packers hadn’t won a road playoff game since Jan. 11, 1998 until defeating the Eagles.
The ‘under’ has cashed in eight of Green Bay’s past nine road games. The ‘over’ is 7-2-2 in Atlanta’s last 11 contests.
Saturday Divisional Playoff Preview
By: BoDog Sportsbook
Was Wild Card Weekend dramatic enough for you? We hope so, because Big Chalk is set to make a big comeback this week. The Divisional Playoffs have historically belonged to the favorites; as Bruce Marshall has already pointed out, faves are 97-42 SU and 71-65-3 ATS since 1975, and no fewer than 62 of those games have been decided by at least 14 points. That number includes three of last year's matchups – the New York Jets were the only dogs that didn't get taken to a nice farm upstate. However, Saturday's NFL betting lines are encouraging if you prefer a little drama to go with your football.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
"This is World War III to us. This is definitely Armageddon."
That's what Ravens LB Terrell Suggs had to say about this one. There is no love lost between these two AFC North adversaries. When they last met on December 5, Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger got his nose broken. But then he did what he usually does: beat Baltimore. Roethlisberger orchestrated the winning drive late in the fourth quarter of a 13-10 victory, improving to 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS in his last six starts against the Ravens (–3 at home). Baltimore won back in Week 4 when Charlie Batch was filling in for Big Ben. The Steelers (12-4 SU, 10-6 ATS) ended up winning the AFC North over the Ravens (12-4 SU, 8-7-1 ATS) thanks to a better division record.
Pittsburgh may be dominating this series, but the games themselves have been close for the most part. Each of the last four contests was decided by a field goal. Seven of the last eight were decided by less than a touchdown. The only exception was at the 2008-09 Divisional Playoffs, where rookie QB Joe Flacco threw three interceptions as the Ravens (+6) lost 23-14 at Heinz Field. The NFL lines at press time had Baltimore as a 3-point dog (+105). The Ravens are 18-7-2 ATS in their last 27 as road underdogs of a field goal or smaller; the Steelers are 7-21-1 ATS in their last 29 as small favorites.
Heinz Field might look more like Stalingrad than World War III. It's a winter wonderland this week in Pittsburgh, and Saturday's forecast calls for a 30 percent chance of more snow with temperatures dipping below freezing. Perfect football weather, in other words, for a ground war between two of the best defenses in the NFL. The total for this matchup is 37 points; the OVER is 9-1 in Pittsburgh's last 10 playoff games at home.
Green Bay at Atlanta
No weather concerns inside the Georgia Dome this week, but outside doesn't look anything like Atlanta. One of the worst storms in the city's history has left the streets covered in ice and slush. Tuesday's NBA game between the Atlanta Hawks and the Milwaukee Bucks had to be postponed. The Falcons (13-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) have been forced to take their practices indoors; however, things should heat up a bit by the weekend. We can only assume the Packers (10-6 SU, 9-7 ATS) will get into town all right.
This is a rematch of the Week 12 battle that saw the Falcons prevail 20-17 as 2.5-point home faves. The spread for Saturday is up to three points (+110), a very small adjustment considering Atlanta had the bye week to heal and prepare. The Packers have earned themselves some respect after beating the Philadelphia Eagles 21-16 on Wild Card Weekend. Green Bay (+1 away) was clearly superior on both sides of the ball against an Eagles team that had won seven of its last nine games. No surprise there; the Packers finished the regular season ranked No. 3 in the league in efficiency according to Football Outsiders, two spots ahead of the Eagles and five up on the Falcons.
And should we be that surprised by the performance of rookie RB James Starks (123 yards on 23 carries)? Green Bay's running attack has been undervalued for some time. The Packers ranked No. 11 in rushing efficiency, but in terms of pure rushing yards, they ranked No. 24. The Eagles and the Falcons are both average when it comes to run defense. So are the Packers, but Atlanta's running game has slipped considerably with Michael Turner picking up 4.1 yards per carry, the lowest of his seven years in the NFL. Atlanta is No. 27 overall this year in rushing efficiency. Good thing for the Falcons they're at home, where they're 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Divisional Round
By Shawn Hartlen
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5)
Why Ravens cover: The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four times these two division rivals have played. Both of their meetings this year resulted in 3-point outcomes, which bodes well for Baltimore. Their last meeting saw Ben Roethlisberger, who admittedly hates playing against Baltimore, come away with a broken nose courtesy of defensive tackle Haloti Ngata. Expect the Ravens to come after Big Ben again to try and force him out of the pocket and into the waiting clutches of their feared linebackers.
Why Steelers cover: They've had one more week to prepare and more importantly, one more week to rest. In a game that is expected to be as physical as it is low scoring, having a week of has given players like Troy Polamalu, Maurkice Pouncey, Bryant McFadden and Mewelde Moore a chance to recuperate from their late season injuries. Their defense was so good against the run during the season that the next best team (Chicago) allowed 27.3 yards more per game than the Steelers. If Baltimore can't get its ground game going, Joe Flacco could struggle to move the ball on his own, something that has happened to him in the past.
Total (37): Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Why Packers cover: The one thing they couldn't do well all season was run the ball. Suddenly, out of nowhere, in their wild card matchup against Philadelphia, rookie running back James Starks torched the Eagles for 123 yards on 23 carries. We already know that they have a great defense (they led the NFC with a plus-148 point differential) and have one of the games most feared passing attacks, but if the Packers can run the ball effectively from time to time, they might be the team to beat in the NFC.
Why Falcons cover: The Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last six matchups against the Falcons. In the Week 12 clash, Atlanta played a focused, controlled game that saw Matt Ryan complete 85 percent of his passes while Michael Turner pounded away on the ground for 110 yards. Atlanta’s defense was largely over-looked this season but held opponents to a respectable 18-points per game and could be the deciding factor in a game that is expected to go down to the wire.
Total (44): Under is 8-1 in the Packers' last nine road games.
Saturday Divisional Playoffs
Ravens (13-4) @ Steelers (12-4) - Steelers won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 in their last seven home games- they’re 10-0 when allowing 16 or less points, 2-4 when they allow more. Six of last seven series meetings were won by 4 or less points, with Pittsburgh winning five of seven; road team won both meetings this year, with Ravens letting sweep slip away when Flacco was sacked/fumbled in his own territory when Baltimore led 10-6 in last 4:00. Roethlisberger didn’t play in Week 4 game at Heinz Field, a 17-14 Baltimore win. Ravens won five in row since Week 13 loss (4-1 vs. spread), forcing 18 turnovers (+13). #2 seed in AFC lost first playoff game 3 of last 4 years.
Packers (11-6) @ Falcons (13-3) - Green Bay (+2.5) lost 20-17 in Atlanta in Week 12, despite Rodgers averaging 9.5 yards/pass attempt; Pack outgained Atlanta 418-295, but fumbled on Atlanta 1-yard line and scored only 17 points on four trips to red zone, while Falcons scored TDs on both its red zone trips. Packers' win at Philly last week was their first in last four road games. Since 1990, NFC #1 seeds are 18-2 in their first playoff game, but losses came in last three years. Atlanta is 7-1 at home this year, losing in Week 16 to Saints when New Orleans needed game lot more than Falcons- thats Atlanta's only loss in their last ten games. Green Bay is 2-3 on artificial turf this season.
Ravens at Steelers: What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: Round 3 of one of the most bitter and undoubtedly the most physical rivalries in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers split two meetings this season, with each winning on the other team’s field. No surprise there, since the past four regular season meetings have been decided by three points.
The Steelers have two factors in their favor: The home-field advantage and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has won his last six starts against the Ravens. The teams shared the AFC North Division title with 12-4 records, but Pittsburgh won the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. A trip to the AFC Championship Game awaits the winner, so expect the usual Saturday - a ferocious, hard-hitting game that likely will come down to the waning minutes.
TV: 4:30 p.m. EST, CBS
OPENING LINE: Steelers -3.5, O/U 37
WEATHER: Chance of snow showers with temperatures in the low-30s.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-4, 10-6 ATS): The Steelers rebounded from a 22-17 home loss to the New York Jets with dominating wins over Carolina (27-3) and at Cleveland (41-9) to close out the season. Pittsburgh won six of its final seven games, holding five opponents to 10 points or fewer. The Steelers struggled to find their offensive stride this side, no doubt hindered by the fact that Roethlisberger missed the first four games while serving a four-game suspension. Rashard Mendenhall ran for 1,273 yards and 13 TDs and speedster Mike Wallace is an emerging star at wide receiver. He had six 100-yard games, including three straight to close out the season. Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and always seems to figure out a way to beat the Ravens. Then there is the defense, which has a league-leading 48 sacks and hopes to have big-play safety Troy Polamalu healthy.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS): Baltimore enters Saturday’s showdown on a roll, riding a five-game winning streak that included a 30-7 dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs in last weekend’s Wildcard Round. The Ravens forced five turnovers by the Chiefs in winning for the seventh time in eight games. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. Baltimore has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 14 games, but neither have the Steelers, which could mean little running room for running back Ray Rice. Joe Flacco threw for 265 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He connected with tight end Todd Heap 10 times for 108 yards, but was also sacked four times. Flacco must be wary of Pittsburgh’s pass rush. His fourth-quarter fumble led to the winning score for the Steelers in the last meeting.
KEY PLAYERS: Pittsburgh’s defense is a completely different unit with Polamalu on the field. He has been dealing with an Achilles injury, but practiced fully Thursday. His sack of Flacco in Week 13 thwarted Baltimore’s chances of a season sweep and division title. Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley lead a strong pass rush. Harrison had 36.5 sacks in the past three seasons and Woodley has registered eight sacks in four postseason games. Roethlisberger is 8-2 all-time in the postseason and has not lost to the Ravens since Dec. 24, 2006.
Rice has been completely bottled up by Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense this season, managing just 52 yards in both meetings. However, he’s the only back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Steelers in the past 50 games. Rice needs to provide some semblance of a running game to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush from teeing off on Flacco. WR Anquan Boldin had five catches for 118 yards and a touchdown in the last game vs. the Steelers. He also had success against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary with eight catches for Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.
RECENT HISTORY: The teams split both regular season meetings in each of the last two seasons, but both Baltimore victories came with Roethlisberger out of the lineup.
KEY INJURIES: Ravens: C Matt Birk (knee), CB Chris Carr (thigh). Steelers: DE Aaron Smith (triceps), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen), S Troy Polamalu (ankle).
LAST WORD: A victory would allow Flacco to set the NFL record for road playoff wins by a quarterback with five. A win would send Pittsburgh to its 15th AFC Championship Game, surpassing Dallas (14) for the most appearances in a conference title game since 1970.
TRENDS:
- Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
Ravens at Steelers: What Bettors Need to Know
THE STORY: Round 3 of one of the most bitter and undoubtedly the most physical rivalries in the NFL. The Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers split two meetings this season, with each winning on the other team’s field. No surprise there, since the past four regular season meetings have been decided by three points.
The Steelers have two factors in their favor: The home-field advantage and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, who has won his last six starts against the Ravens. The teams shared the AFC North Division title with 12-4 records, but Pittsburgh won the tiebreaker by virtue of a better division record. A trip to the AFC Championship Game awaits the winner, so expect the usual Saturday - a ferocious, hard-hitting game that likely will come down to the waning minutes.
TV: 4:30 p.m. EST, CBS
OPENING LINE: Steelers -3.5, O/U 37
WEATHER: Chance of snow showers with temperatures in the low-30s.
ABOUT THE STEELERS (12-4, 10-6 ATS): The Steelers rebounded from a 22-17 home loss to the New York Jets with dominating wins over Carolina (27-3) and at Cleveland (41-9) to close out the season. Pittsburgh won six of its final seven games, holding five opponents to 10 points or fewer. The Steelers struggled to find their offensive stride this side, no doubt hindered by the fact that Roethlisberger missed the first four games while serving a four-game suspension. Rashard Mendenhall ran for 1,273 yards and 13 TDs and speedster Mike Wallace is an emerging star at wide receiver. He had six 100-yard games, including three straight to close out the season. Roethlisberger has two Super Bowl rings and always seems to figure out a way to beat the Ravens. Then there is the defense, which has a league-leading 48 sacks and hopes to have big-play safety Troy Polamalu healthy.
ABOUT THE RAVENS (13-4, 9-7-1 ATS): Baltimore enters Saturday’s showdown on a roll, riding a five-game winning streak that included a 30-7 dismantling of the Kansas City Chiefs in last weekend’s Wildcard Round. The Ravens forced five turnovers by the Chiefs in winning for the seventh time in eight games. They have held six of their last eight opponents to 13 points or fewer. Baltimore has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 14 games, but neither have the Steelers, which could mean little running room for running back Ray Rice. Joe Flacco threw for 265 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He connected with tight end Todd Heap 10 times for 108 yards, but was also sacked four times. Flacco must be wary of Pittsburgh’s pass rush. His fourth-quarter fumble led to the winning score for the Steelers in the last meeting.
KEY PLAYERS: Pittsburgh’s defense is a completely different unit with Polamalu on the field. He has been dealing with an Achilles injury, but practiced fully Thursday. His sack of Flacco in Week 13 thwarted Baltimore’s chances of a season sweep and division title. Outside linebackers James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley lead a strong pass rush. Harrison had 36.5 sacks in the past three seasons and Woodley has registered eight sacks in four postseason games. Roethlisberger is 8-2 all-time in the postseason and has not lost to the Ravens since Dec. 24, 2006.
Rice has been completely bottled up by Pittsburgh’s top-ranked run defense this season, managing just 52 yards in both meetings. However, he’s the only back to rush for more than 100 yards against the Steelers in the past 50 games. Rice needs to provide some semblance of a running game to keep Pittsburgh’s pass rush from teeing off on Flacco. WR Anquan Boldin had five catches for 118 yards and a touchdown in the last game vs. the Steelers. He also had success against Pittsburgh’s suspect secondary with eight catches for Arizona in Super Bowl XLIII.
RECENT HISTORY: The teams split both regular season meetings in each of the last two seasons, but both Baltimore victories came with Roethlisberger out of the lineup.
KEY INJURIES: Ravens: C Matt Birk (knee), CB Chris Carr (thigh). Steelers: DE Aaron Smith (triceps), CB Bryant McFadden (abdomen), S Troy Polamalu (ankle).
LAST WORD: A victory would allow Flacco to set the NFL record for road playoff wins by a quarterback with five. A win would send Pittsburgh to its 15th AFC Championship Game, surpassing Dallas (14) for the most appearances in a conference title game since 1970.
TRENDS:
- Over is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
- Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
- Underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
- Road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.