NFL News and Notes Saturday 1/16

ARIZONA (11 - 6) at NEW ORLEANS (13 - 3)

Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
ARIZONA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as an underdog this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 43-65 ATS (-28.5 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BALTIMORE (10 - 7) at INDIANAPOLIS (14 - 2)

Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

ARIZONA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Arizona is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games
Arizona is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Arizona
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Arizona

BALTIMORE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 6 games on the road
Indianapolis is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Arizona at New Orleans

Arizona
6-0 ATS as an underdog
13-2 ATS if 50+ points were scored last game

New Orleans
11-25 ATS at home off loss by 10 or more
6-0 Under at home off ATS loss

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Baltimore
31-15 ATS off a road win
12-4 ATS off an Over

Indianapolis
4-12 ATS off BB losses by 10 or more
8-0 Under in Saturday games

What Bettors Need To Know: Cardinals at Saints
By PATRICK GARBIN

In the NFL divisional playoffs, the Cardinals and Saints meet in New Orleans for only the 11th time ever (Saints 6-4 straight up); the victor will face the winner of the Cowboys-Vikings on Jan. 24 for the NFC championship.

In a game perceived as a high-scoring affair, Arizona enters coming off a long, emotional playoff win only six days prior while New Orleans is well rested, clinching its spot in the postseason weeks ago.

Line movement

New Orleans opened as a 7-point favorite; the line has not moved whatsoever. The total opened at 56.5 and has increased only slightly by a half point.

The betting public is overwhelmingly favoring the Arizona money line (+240), which is being wagered almost 20 times more than the other side.

Significant injuries/suspensions

Cardinals wide receiver Anquan Boldin, who suffered both knee and ankle injuries, is a game-time decision according to coach Ken Whisenhunt. Boldin finished the regular season second on the team in receiving just behind Pro-Bowler Larry Fitzgerald.

On Tuesday, Boldin said he was “definitely” optimistic about playing against the Saints.

If Boldin isn’t able to go Saturday, Arizona appears to be in good shape without him. Since the start of last season, the Cardinals are 17-13 SU and averaging approximately 24 points per game with Boldin in the lineup and curiously 6-1 SU and averaging nearly 34 without him.

No dome-field advantage

The Louisiana Superdome has the reputation for being one of the loudest and most hostile environments in the NFL. However, the Saints are only 59-82 ATS (41.8 percent) at home since 1992, including 4-4 this year.

Maybe more telling, New Orleans has hosted five playoff games in its history, winning just two and covering only one.

The Cardinals have proven not to be intimidated when playing on the road or in an underdog role. Dating back to last season’s playoffs, Arizona is 8-2 SU and a perfect 10-0 ATS as an underdog, playing seven of the 10 games away from home.

Turnovers

New Orleans was second in the NFL in turnovers gained (39) and third in turnover margin (+11). Safety Darren Sharper leads the Saints with nine interceptions—three have been returned for touchdowns. His 376 interception return yards are a single-season NFL record.

"I've played against [Arizona quarterback] Kurt [Warner] a couple of times. I know what he likes to do," said Sharper.

Although it committed only one turnover in last week’s 51-45 victory over Green Bay, Arizona was next to last this season in turnover giveaways (36) and the only playoff team of the 12 with a negative-turnover margin.

Tuckered out team

The Cardinals’ stop unit, which ranked 20th in the league in total defense during the regular season, allowed 493 yards last week, including more than 300 passing in the second half alone.

Saints quarterback Drew Brees completed more than 70 percent of his passes this year for 4,388 yards and 34 touchdowns while his passer rating was the seventh highest in NFL history in a single season.

While Arizona is coming off a short week, Brees hasn’t appeared in a game since two days after Christmas. One cannot help to think that the Cardinals could be emotionally and physically spent, especially when facing a quarterback with the ability of Brees.

Key matchup

Warner was fourth in the NFL in passing rating this season when opposing defenses blitzed. More notably, he was sacked less than six percent of the time in these situations.

Spearheaded by Will Smith (13 sacks in ’09), Anthony Hargrove (five), and Bobby McCray (filling in for injured Charles Grant), the Saints, as they’ve done all season, will attempt to apply pressure on Warner.

If successful, New Orleans should force Warner into turning the ball over; however, he may instead be able to sit comfortably in the pocket, as he did against Green Bay, and pick the Saints apart.

Trends

Arizona is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games and the under is 11-6 in its 2009-10 season.

New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games and the under is 7-2 in its last nine games.

Since the NFL shifted from a 10 to a 12-team playoff format in 2002, playoff teams coming off a bye are 7-9 SU and 4-12 ATS; the last four consecutive seasons, at least two of the four home teams in the divisional playoffs have lost.

What Bettors Need To Know: Ravens at Colts
By ADAM THOMPSON

One of the league’s perennially prolific offenses faces one of the top defensive units of the last decade when the Indianapolis Colts host the Baltimore Ravens in a AFC playoff semifinal Saturday.

Line changes

The opening line of Indy -7 has gone down to -6.5 on most boards, while the total of 44 points has remained unchanged.

Welcome to Thunder Dome

Mother Nature will not be a factor inside the Colts’ Lucas Oil Stadium. As far as playing indoors goes, Indianapolis went 7-1 at home and didn’t play indoors on the road, while Baltimore’s lone game inside was a 33-31 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 18.

The Ravens are 0-4 inside the RCA Dome and Lucas Oil Stadium and have lost seven straight games to Indianapolis heading into the weekend.

"It's all about finishing against Indianapolis," Ravens receiver Mark Clayton told CBS. "Finishing means doing the little things and we haven't done that when we've played them. But just because we've lost to them before doesn't mean anything. We have great leadership and we're confident."

Run the ball, stop the run

If running the ball and stopping the run are the keys to postseason success, then the Colts are in trouble. Indy ranks dead last in rushing yards (80.9 per game) and is 25th in stopping the ground game, at 126.5.

"You've got to understand that in this offense you've got to pass first, run second. We know that," running back Joseph Addai told the Indianapolis Star. "I feel in the right situations we can run the ball."

If owning the ground is the key, Baltimore was made for this. The Ravens have the fifth-best rushing game in the NFL (137.9 per game) and the fifth-best rush defense (93.2). Against the Patriots, Baltimore totaled 234 yards rushing including scoring a 83-yard rushing touchdown on the first play from scrimmage.

"I was certainly watching the game on TV, and saw Rice's run," Colts quarterback Peyton Manning told the media. "You felt like that really sent a jolt through their team and their defense fed off that."

Peyton’s place

The Colts haven’t needed much of a run game with the second-best passing attack in the league (281.6), led by four-time MVP Peyton Manning, who threw for 4,500 yards and 33 touchdowns. Indianapolis still hasn’t lost a game this season in which Manning wasn’t pulled.

Wideout Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark each caught 100 passes this year. Baltimore has been trying to get aging linebacker Ray Lewis, 34, off the field during passing downs. But the Colts will pass in any situation, which could open up some mismatches. That could mean a big day for Clark in the middle of the field.

Pass deficient

As usual, Baltimore is led by a punishing defense that ranked in the Top 10 in every major statistical category. And while the rushing game has been strong, led by the one-two punch of Ray Rice (1,339 yards, seven TD) and Willis McGahee (544 yds, 13 TD), the passing game, headed by quarterback Joe Flacco, ranks 18th (213.3 ypg).

In last week’s 33-14 win at New England, Flacco completed just four passes for 34 yards with an interception and finished with a quarterback rating of 10.0 (the Ravens rushed for 234 yards).

"I don't care. If we win, we win," Flacco told USA Today of his limited action versus New England. " … Quarterbacks like to throw the ball and do it that way, but it doesn't matter. … C'mon, we were up 24 points after the first quarter.

"You really think we're going to throw the ball 30 times? I don't think so."

Flacco has been nursing a sore hip and quadriceps, but insists it will not limit him Saturday and is not listed on the injury report.

First half the key?

Because of the different styles and strengths of the two teams, whichever team jumps out to a first-half lead could have a big edge.

While halftime trends are difficult to prove in regards to the Colts – they were 14-0 in games that the starters played throughout – they are clear in regards to the Ravens.

When Baltimore leads at halftime, it is 9-1. When the Ravens trail at halftime, they are 0-5. They’re 1-1 if the game is tied at the half.

Injury report

Baltimore’s stellar tight end, Todd Heap, was listed as questionable after suffering back spasms against New England Sunday. No other major players are listed on the injury report. Coach John Harbaugh indicated Heap would likely play, but would not be 100 percent.

Amazingly, Baltimore has 12 players who have been lost for the season. Six of those were knocked out in November or later. Staring tackle Jared Gaither (ankle) is expected to play.

Other notes

These two teams met in Baltimore Nov. 22, with Indy earning a 17-15 win. The Ravens’ points came on five field goals.

Indy is 0-3 in playoff games following a bye week.

Trends

Baltimore is 7-2 ATS in its last nine playoff road games.

The under is 6-2 in Baltimore’s last nine games against AFC opponents and the under is 6-2 in Indianapolis’ last eight playoff games.

Indy is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games.

Arizona at New Orleans Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone

After surviving Green Bay in the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history, the defending NFC champion Cardinals will head to The Big Easy. This first divisional playoff game has all the makings of spectacular offensive display, with two of the game's most dynamic offenses and skilled quarterbacks going head-to-head.

Arizona (11-6, 9-7 ATS) is coming off an amazing offensive game. Led by Kurt Warner completing 29 of 33 passes for 379 yards and five touchdowns, the Cardinals were able to survive against Green Bay. This was the second time the future Hall of Famer had more touchdown then incompletions (in 1999 he was 20 for 23 with five TD passes against San Francisco when playing with St. Louis) in his career.

The Cardinals are the most offbeat team in the NFL that wins division titles. When coach Ken Whistenhunts squad has nothing to play for, they resemble many of the Cardinals teams of the past, playing inept football. While most experts and former football players say no team can just flip the switch and play at their peak, Arizona has confounded everyone the last two years and done just that in registering 8-1 ATS record when playing against a top-level team with win percentage of 75 percent or higher.

In the past, Arizona was among the most meager of traveling teams, however they are 7-2 and 5-3-1 ATS in last nine road trips, allowing 17 points per contest. Their defense was shredded last week by Aaron Rodgers and the Pack, but they are 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.5 or more yards play in their previous game over the last two seasons.

New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS) after winning their first 13 games of the season, lost their last three and have a similar curiosity factor as Conan OBrien as people want to see what the Saints will do next. Drew Brees was on his way to MVP season, but trailed off in the second half as opposing teams looked to take away the run and force New Orleans into more obvious passing situations and blitzed Brees more accordingly.

Historically, the Saints havent handled adversity well with 8-19 ATS in home games after two or more consecutive losses against the spread. Coach Sean Payton believes this team is better prepared for this spot, since they are 11-4 SU and 9-5-1 ATS at the Super Dome the last two seasons and has scored 32.1 points per game.

New Orleans has to be encouraged going against the Cardinals defense, since their receivers are at least as deep and talented as Green Bays and Arizona has weaknesses beyond its main three players in the secondary. The Saints big play offense is 15-4 ATS when they gain eight or more net passing yards per attempt.

Betus.com installed New Orleans as a touchdown favorite with total of 57 points, the highest such playoff figure dating back to at least 1988. Teams that have lost their last two games against the spread during the regular season are 13-5 ATS this round (this will include the Colts also) and the Saints are 6-0 ATS off a road loss over the last two seasons. New Orleans is 6-0 UNDER at home after one or more spread losses.

Arizona is one two teams this weekend that drew the short straw, having to play a rested team on just six days rest and loses even more time playing the latter game last week and having to travel East. Look for the Cardinals to test the Saints soft run defense with Beanie Wells to open up the passing game. Expect Warner to try and hit big play early to help build team confidence. The Cards secondary has to have better idea scheme-wise and take correct angles for tackling purposes. The defensive line cant let Brees stand in the pocket, otherwise these birds are cooked. Arizona is 6-0 ATS as an underdog and 8-2 UNDER after one or more wins this season.

New Orleans has to do what Arizona did last week, start fast and hope defense can hold up. Their offense turned uncharacteristically sluggish in November and December, especially early in games and this team needs a shot of confidence from the get-go. Coach Payton has to get Arizona defense off-balance like last week and keep them guessing. With Saints expected to be as healthy as theyve been in a month, Reggie Bush and Robert Meachem are real keys against team that is 4-1 and 5-0 ATS in the postseason since last year.

Baltimore at Indianapolis Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone

The AFC's #1 seed is in action on Saturday evening, and hoping to snap out of a losing funk. The Colts won their first 14 games before losing the final two amidst a controversy of deciding to rest starters. While most players and coaches agree Indianapolis head man Jim Caldwell did the right thing in looking at the broader view of trying to get to another Super Bowl, he has left himself wide open for criticism if they would falter against Baltimore.

Defensively, Peyton Manning and Colts know the Ravens first order of business is to take away the run, which is not a big deal for them since they only average 81 yards per game on the ground anyway. This Indianapolis team can't abandon the run entirely, seeking to keep average of around 23 carries per game. Where the offensive line really has to perform is in the passing game, protecting Manning against the blitzes he will face. They will have no excuse after the way Baltimore started at New England, slugging them in the mouth and the Patriots not responding. The Colts won 14 games, had 10-6 ATS mark and should know exactly what to do.

The Ravens (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) didn't lose seven games by accident, they have very definable weaknesses. The Colts figure to attack Baltimore on the perimeter, since their corners are not strong at keeping coverage, particularly on deeper patterns where they have to turn and run with receivers. Indy will experiment in the first quarter with Dallas Clark. If Baltimore decides to utilize Ed Reed in more single coverage on Clark, that opens the rest of the field for Manning to attack their greatest deficiency. If instead they let linebackers and a strong safety try and guard Clark, he's too much of mismatch, which the Colts can exploit.

The Indianapolis defense cannot let Baltimore dictate tempo. Coach John Harbaugh has determined the best way for his team to win and it is as basic as it gets, blocking and tackling. If the Ravens three-headed running monster is in second or third and short continually, Baltimore sends Indy packing in first playoff game for the four time in five years and raises postseason mark to 9-3 SU and ATS. The blue-clad Colts are 13-5 and ugly 6-12 ATS in last 18 home assignments.

Baltimore can pull the upset, but they must stay in character and hit a few big plays. The Ravens have lost seven straight to Indianapolis, covering the spread only once, which included Nov. 22, 17-15 defeat as one-point home underdog. The Birds have manufactured just 11.6 points per game against Indy's defense in this stretch. That means Joe Flacco has to hit deep passes or Ray Rice has to bust a long run or two. If Baltimore offensive can set the tempo, they move to 13-4 ATS in road games after gaining 150 or less passing yards in two straight times.

Sportbet.com has the Ravens catching six points with total of 44. For many bettors Baltimore looks to be the play, given their strong defense and tough-minded attitude. While those are admirable qualities, remember teams that won as road underdogs in the Wild Card round are 3-8 ATS in next outing. Similar to Arizona, Ray Lewis' squad had just six days off and is playing their fourth consecutive road game. When does the well run dry?

Lewis and the defense will have to be lucky and good. They will have to disguise coverage's and hopefully make Manning a bit anxious, blitzing on early downs and keeping eight men in coverage on passing downs. Baltimore is 13-2 ATS when they allow 50 to 75 rushing yards and 10-1 ATS when they rush for 125 or more yards.

In the teams last eight meetings when the total is in the 40's, the UNDER is 6-2.

Arizona (11-6, 10-7 ATS) at New Orleans (13-3, 8-8 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Cardinals travel to the Big Easy to take on the top-seeded Saints at the Superdome to open the divisional playoff round.

Arizona won a wild-card shootout with Green Bay on Sunday, claiming a 51-45 victory in overtime as a 2½-point home underdog in the highest-scoring playoff game in NFL history. The Cardinals blew leads of 17-0 in the first quarter and 31-10 in the third quarter, but QB Kurt Warner had perhaps the game of his career, going 29 of 33 for 379 yards, throwing more TD passes (5) than incompletions. Ironically enough, the game was won when Arizona linebacker Karlos Dansby grabbed an Aaron Rodgers fumble and ran it in for the TD.

New Orleans was perfect through 13 games this year (8-5 ATS), winning and covering the first six weeks, en route to wrapping up the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs. However, the Saints finished on an 0-3 SU and ATS skid. Their unbeaten season was spoiled in a 24-17 loss to Dallas a 7½-point home favorite, followed by a shocking 20-17 home setback to lowly Tampa Bay as a whopping 14-point underdog. In the regular-season finale, with nothing to play for, New Orleans again lost 23-10 catching 10 points at Carolina.

Arizona made the postseason as the NFC West champion (fourth seed) for the second straight year, after a nine-year playoff absence. The Cardinals rode last year’s playoff berth all the way to their first Super Bowl appearance before falling to Pittsburgh 27-23 as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason. With last week’s winning effort, coach Ken Whisenhunt is now 5-0 ATS in the playoffs.

New Orleans is back in the playoffs after a two-year drought. The Saints made a run at the Super Bowl following the 2006 regular season, topping Philadelphia 27-24 at home as a 5½-point chalk in the divisional round before getting ripped in chilly Chicago 39-14 getting 2½ points in the NFC Championship Game.

These teams have met in three meaningful games the past 10 years, with New Orleans going 2-1 SU and ATS, and all three tilts were decided by at least a TD. Most recently, the Saints won 31-24 giving four points at home in December 2007. The Saints are 4-1 ATS (3-2 SU) in the last five clashes, and the SU winner is 7-1-1 ATS in the last nine meetings (3-0 SU and ATS last three).

The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs. The Redbirds averaged 23.4 ppg (11th). In last week’s shootout, though, Arizona blew up for a whopping 531 yards, adding 156 rushing yards to Warner’s aerial assault.

The turnover bug plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin (24th in the league), making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th), and last week gave up an eye-popping 493 yards to the Packers, with Rodgers carving them up for 422 passing yards and four TDs. But Arizona – playing the team with the by far the best turnover margin in the league – ironically won the turnover battle 2-1, which in the end was the difference.

Despite its lackluster regular-season finish, New Orleans led the league in total offense (403.8 ypg) and scoring (31.9 ppg). In fact, the Saints scored 30 points or more nine times in the first 13 games and had seven games of 35 points or more, including four in the 40s. QB Drew Brees engineered a passing attack that averaged 272.2 ypg (fourth), as he threw for 4,388 yards and a league-leading 34 TDs, against just 11 INTs.

Brees was also the top rated QB (109.6), completing 70.6 percent of his passes, and four Saints finished with at least 550 yards receiving, paced by Marques Colston (1,074 yards, 9 TDs). Defensively, New Orleans was not quite as sharp, allowing 357.8 ypg (25th) and 21.3 ppg (20th), though the Saints posted a plus-11 turnover margin, third-best in the NFL.

The Cardinals are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 15-7 overall, the aforementioned 5-0 in the playoffs, 7-0 on Saturday, 23-9 as an underdog, 6-0 as a road pup, 7-1 in January and 8-2 against winning teams. All that said, Super Bowl losers are on an 11-18-2 ATS purge in playoff games the following season, despite the Cards’ win and cover last week.

The Saints are on ATS upticks of 9-2 following a SU loss, 10-3 laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 as a home chalk of that same price, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-5 overall (all versus NFC teams), 0-4 as a favorite, 0-4 in January, 0-4 on Saturday and 1-4 at home (all as a chalk).

Arizona is on “over” rolls of 5-1 in the postseason, 38-14 as a road pup, 4-1 as a playoff ‘dog and 20-8 against winning teams, but the total has stayed low in six of its last eight overall (with last week’s shootout obviously sailing high). The under is on further runs for the Cards of 5-0 after a SU win, 4-0 after a spread-cover and 5-2 on the highway.

The over is 3-0-1 in New Orleans’ last four playoff games and 47-23-2 in its last 72 starts against winning teams, but the Saints sport “under” runs of 4-0 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 laying points and 5-0 after a non-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Baltimore (10-7, 9-7-1 ATS) at Indianapolis (14-2, 10-6 ATS)

The top-seeded Colts and league MVP Peyton Manning return to action after their first-round bye, taking on the wild-card Ravens at Lucas Oil Stadium.

Baltimore, the No. 6 seed in the AFC, went on the road and plastered third-seeded New England last week, scoring 24 first-quarter points on the way to a 33-14 victory as a 3½-point pup. The Ravens ran for a whopping 234 yards, including an 83-yard TD jaunt by RB Ray Rice on the game’s first play from scrimmage. Baltimore also forced four Tom Brady turnovers (3 INTs, 1 fumble) while committing two, as it improved to 5-1 SU (4-1-1 ATS) in its last six games.

Indianapolis ripped off wins in its first 14 games (10-4 ATS) before rookie coach Jim Caldwell inexplicably let off the gas in the second half against the New York Jets on Dec. 27. Caldwell pulled Manning, among other starters, while leading 15-10 in the third quarter, and the Colts ultimately lost 29-15 as a three-point home favorite. In a meaningless Week 17 tilt in the snow at Buffalo, Indy got drubbed 30-7 as a nine-point underdog, with starters seeing limited if any action.

The Ravens are in the playoffs for a second straight year and are on a familiar tack. They rode the No. 6 seed all the way to the AFC title game last season before losing at Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point ‘dog.

The Colts are in the playoffs for the eight consecutive year, winning the Super Bowl after the 2006 regular season, but bowing out against San Diego in their playoff opener each of the past two seasons. In the divisional round two years ago against the Chargers, Indy lost 28-24 as a whopping 10½-point home favorite, and as a wild-card last year, the Colts went to San Diego and fell 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point road chalk.

These squads met Nov. 22 in regular-season action, with Indianapolis squeaking out a 17-15 victory as a one-point road favorite. The Ravens were in position for a chip-shot game-winning field-goal attempt until QB Joe Flacco threw an interception in the red zone. The Colts are riding a six-game SU and ATS winning streak against Baltimore dating to 2004, with five of those wins coming by nine points or more. Only two of those six contests were in Indy, including the Colts’ 31-3 pasting as a four-point chalk in October 2008. The favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six contests, and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.

During Indianapolis’ 2006 run to the Super Bowl title, it beat Baltimore 15-6 as a four-point road pup in the divisional round. With Manning at QB, the Colts are on a 7-0 SU tear (6-1 ATS) against Baltimore, dating to 2002.

The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th) in the regular season, including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.

Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, as it ranked third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 regular-season turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL. With last week’s effort, Baltimore improved to plus-12 for the year.

Behind the NFL’s second-best passing attack (282.2 ypg), Indy averaged 363.1 total ypg (ninth) and 26 ppg (seventh). Manning, who won his fourth MVP award this year, threw for exactly 4,500 yards and had 33 TDs, against 16 INTs, with five players recording 47 or more catches. WR Reggie Wayne (100 catches, 1,264 yards, 10 TDs) and All-Pro TE Dallas Clark (100 catches, 1,106 yards, 10 TDs) led the way.

Indianapolis allowed 339.2 ypg (18th), but that translated into just 19.2 ppg (ninth), and the Colts had a nominal plus-2 turnover margin.

The Ravens currently shoulder negative ATS streaks of 1-4 against winning teams, 3-7 in January and 4-12 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re also riding positive ATS runs of 3-1-1 overall, 7-2 in playoff roadies, 13-6-1 after a spread-cover and 15-7-1 following a SU win.

Perhaps most telling, though, is that under coach John Harbaugh, Baltimore is a superb 14-1 SU and 13-2 ATS against teams coming off a SU loss – including 10-0 ATS in that situation when the Ravens are coming off a SU win.

Likewise, the Colts are a mixed bag at the betting window, going 0-4 ATS in their last four outings following a SU loss and 1-4 ATS in their last five after a pointspread defeat. In addition, since 2005, home teams who had a bye entering the divisional round are just 4-12 ATS, and Manning is 0-2 SU and ATS at home in the playoffs after a bye week. Still, the Colts carry positive pointspread streaks of 10-5 overall, 3-1 against winning teams and 5-2 as a chalk.

The over is 18-7-2 in the Ravens’ last 27 games as a pup and 5-1-1 in their last seven as a road ‘dog, including last week’s contest, which cleared the 43½-point posted price, and the over is on stretches for the Colts of 4-0 overall and 4-1 when laying points.

However, the under for Baltimore is on rolls of 7-3-1 overall, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-0-1 after a spread-cover, 5-1 on Saturday and 4-1-1 after a SU win. The under has also hit in six straight Saturday games for Indianapolis and is 6-2 in its last eight playoff starts and 5-2 in its last seven divisional-round games. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven clashes, with the November contest in Baltimore falling well short of the 44-point price.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Divisional Playoff Weekend

Saturday, January 16

Cardinals @ Saints-- Total of 57 is highest NFL playoff total in last 20 years, as offense figures to rule here. Saints lost last three games, twice at home after 13-0 start, but down time had to make defense healthier. Arizona is 6-2 away from home, with both losses on grass (Titans/49ers); Cardinals are 11-1 when they score more than 17 points. Saints held four of 16 opponents to 17 or less points this season- they failed to cover last four tries as favorite, and allowed 499 rushing yards in last three games, which kept Brees' offense off the field. Arizona is 5-0-1 against the spread as an underdog this season. Saints' got their first-ever playoff win here against Warner and '00 Rams, 31-28.

Ravens @ Colts-- Ravens were #6 seed LY, knocked top-seeded Titans out of playoffs in same scenario; Baltimore won four of last five games after waxing Patriots in Foxboro last week- they lost 17-15 at home to Colts back in Week 11 (+1.5). Ravens got inside Indy 20-yard line four times, scored six poiints, as Baltimore tried six FGs in game they didn't score TD in. Lot of pressure on Colts here after they eschewed run at perfect season to rest starters. Half the Colts' 14 wins were by four or less points; they're 3-5 as home favorite; they scored 15 TDs on 38 drives in last four games they gave 100% effort to win.

Tips and Trends

Arizona Cardinals at New Orleans Saints

Cardinals: Arizona comes off the highest scoring playoff game in NFL history. QB Kurt Warner has stated this is his last playoff run, and so far he's responded exceptionally well. Warner is 9-3 SU all time in the playoffs. Including the playoffs, the Cardinals are 11-6 SU and 10-7 ATS this year. The Cardinals are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS on the road this season. Arizona is an impressive 6-1 SU as the listed underdog this season, including a perfect ATS record of 7-0. The Cardinals have scored 30 PTS or more in 4 of their past 6 games. Warner threw for more than 3,750 YDS with 26 TDs against 14 INTs this season. RBs Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower are often overlooked, but they combined for over 1,375 rushing YDS with 15 TDS this year. Speaking of tandems, WR's Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin each had 1,000 receiving YDS this season. Defensively, Arizona has given up at least 24 PTS in 4 of their past 5 games.

Cardinals are 6-0 ATS last 6 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - WR Anquan Boldin (ankle) is questionable.
T Mike Gandy (hernia) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Saints (-7, O/U 57): While New Orleans is coming off their bye week, the Saints legitimately face more questions than the Cardinals do entering today. The Saints raced out to a 13-0 SU record before losing their final 3 games of the season. QB Drew Brees led an offense that was by far the best in the NFL with 31.9 PPG. However, this Saints offense was held to 17 PTS or fewer in each of their last 3 games. Brees threw for nearly 4,400 YDS while completing more than 70% of his passes this season. 4 different receivers had more than 500 YDS receiving this year, led my WR Marques Colston. Colston had nearly 1,075 receiving YDS with 9 TDs. In total, 8 different players caught multiple TD passes. The Saints lost their final 5 games ATS to finish at 8-8 ATS this year. New Orleans finished 4-4 ATS at home this season. New Orleans was 6-2 ATS as a single digit favorite this season.

Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - S Darren Sharper (knee) is probable.
CB Malcolm Jenkins (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 28 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Baltimore Ravens at Indianapolis Colts

Ravens: Baltimore is starting to consider themselves a team of destiny. The Ravens had to win 3 of their final 4 games SU just to qualify for the playoffs. They dominated the Patriots in their Wild Card game to the tune of 33-14 on the road. Baltimore has used their running game to carry them of late, rushing for more than 1,000 YDS in their past 5 games on 5.5 YPC. RB Ray Rice had over 2,000 total YDS from scrimmage this year, with 1,339 coming on the ground. Rice and fellow RB Willis McGahee combined for 22 TDs this season. LB Ray Lewis defies age, as he is still the emotional leader of this Ravens defense. The Ravens have held 4 of their past 5 opponents to 14 PTS or fewer. The Ravens were 9-7 SU and 8-7-1 ATS this season. Including the playoffs, the Ravens are 4-4-1 ATS away from home this year. Baltimore is also 3-3-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season including their playoff game last week.

Ravens are 7-2 ATS last 9 playoff road games.
Over is 4-1 last 5 playoff games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Key Injuries - T Jared Gaither (ankle) is probable.
TE Todd Heap (leg) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Colts (-6.5, O/U 44): The Colts had an impressive 14-2 SU record this season, but questions still remain about them. Most notably is the fact that this team hasn't played a meaningful game for nearly a month. The Colts and QB Peyton had to be happy to see the Ravens as their playoff opponent considering they've won 7 consecutive games against them. Manning threw for exactly 4,500 YDS this season, with 33 TDs against 16 INTs. The Colts had the 2nd best passing offense in the NFL, averaging 282 YPG this season. Along with their 14-2 SU record, the Colts were 10-5-1 ATS this season. Indianapolis was 7-1 SU and 3-4-1 ATS at home this year. The Colts were 7-2-1 ATS as a touchdown or less favorite this season. The Colts limited their opposition to only 19.2 PPG, the 8th best in the league. The Colts struggled with stopping the run, as they allowed nearly 127 rushing YPG this season.

Colts are 2-5 ATS last 7 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

Key Injuries - DE Keyunta Dawson (knee) is probable.
T Ryan Diem (elbow) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)