NFL News and Notes Saturday 12/25

Tech Trends - Week 16
By Bruce Marshall

DALLAS at ARIZONA... Cowboys 5-1 vs. line since Jason Garrett took over as HC, Cowboys also "over" last 11 in 2010. Cards only 2-5 vs. number at Glendale this season. Whisenhunt "over" 8-5-1 TY and 10-5-1 last 16 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over" and Cowboys, based on recent "totals" and team trends.

Week 16 Games

Cowboys (5-9) @ Cardinals (4-10) - Dallas now 4-2 (5-1 vs spread) under Garrett, scoring 32.2 ppg; they scored only 20.1 ppg before Phillips got canned- is Garrett trying little harder now that he’s head coach? Home side won nine of last ten series games; Dallas lost five of last six visits to desert, falling 30-24 in OT in last visit, in ’08. Arizona lost eight of last nine games; they’re 3-4 at home, with losses by 3-18-21-13 points. Redbirds were +3/+5 in turnovers last two games they won. Last four Cowboy games were all decided by 3 points; Dallas is 1-6 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they’re 3-3 SU on road, winning by 14-13-3 points (won at Giants/Colts). NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-2 on road. NFC West home dogs are 6-4. Last 11 Dallas games went over the total.

Gridiron Trends - Week 16
By Vince Akins

Cowboys at Cardinals - The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 10, 1999 when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 as a TD+ favorite. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since December 06, 1992 as a road favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a road favorite when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 09, 2007 on the road when they won their last two road games. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since September 15, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-9-1 OU (-11.6 ppg) since September 17, 1995 as a road favorite after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since October 29, 2000 vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. The Cardinals are 0-6 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a home dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.

Cowboys at Cardinals
By Kevin Rogers

The Christmas weekend in the NFL continues with a matchup in the desert between two reigning division champions who won't see the postseason again this January. The Cowboys have played well since Jason Garrett's promotion to head coach, winning four of six games to improve to 5-9. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have limped to a 4-10 campaign with a merry-go-round at the quarterback position.

Since Kurt Warner's retirement, the Cards have gone through Derek Anderson and Max Hall at quarterback through the first three months of the season. The results were dreadful, as the offense didn't go anywhere while Arizona fell to the bottom of the NFC West. The Cardinals have settled on ex-Fordham standout John Skelton to take the snaps, leading Arizona to a 1-1 record in his two starts.

Skelton paced the Cardinals to a 43-13 home victory over the Broncos in his debut back in Week 14 as four-point underdogs. The passing game wasn't spectacular by any stretch with just 143 yards by Skelton, but the Cards produced five field goals and a defensive touchdown to beat a struggling Denver squad. Arizona is who we thought they were in an ugly 19-12 loss the next week at Carolina, putting up 218 yards of offense against a Panthers' team that entered the game with just one victory.

The Cowboys have been one of the biggest disappointments this season in the NFL, but Dallas can finish the season at 7-9 with wins in its final two games. With a trip to Philadelphia lurking in Week 17, the Cowboys will be looking for their fourth road victory of the season this Saturday. Dallas has won each of its last two away contests over the Colts and Giants, while averaging 35.5 ppg in those victories.

The defense has hindered Dallas all season, allowing 30 points or more in each of the last four games. The 'over' is nearly an automatic play for the Cowboys, hitting in 11 straight games and 12 of 14 overall. The biggest problem for Dallas when Tony Romo broke his collarbone in Week 7 against the Giants was if Jon Kitna could save a floundering offense. That question was answered eventually, even though it took the firing of Wade Phillips to rev up the struggling Cowboys' offense.

Following poor performances against Jacksonville and Green Bay in which Dallas was outscored, 70-24, the Cowboys' offense has been one of the best in the league over the last six games by scoring 32.1 ppg. Kitna has tossed 11 touchdowns and four interceptions since Garrett's promotion, including a 305-yard effort in last Sunday's 33-30 victory over the Redskins. However, that non-cover against Washington snapped a five-game ATS winning streak for Dallas since the Week 10 upset of the Giants as 11 ½-point road 'dogs.

Cardinals' head coach Ken Whisenhunt had owned a ridiculous record with Warner under center at home off a loss, going 11-0 SU and 10-1 ATS from 2007-09. However, that number has taken a major turn this season with a 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS ledger, as Arizona will end the season not playing one home game off a win.

The ‘over’ has profited for the Cardinals, but is hitting at an 8-6 clip, as opposed to the propensity of ‘overs’ for Dallas. Five of Arizona’s seven home games have cashed the ‘over,’ with division losses to San Francisco and St. Louis finishing ‘under.’ In the last five weeks, the Cardinals are 4-1 to the ‘under,’ with the 34-point fourth quarter against Denver costing ‘under’ bettors their ticket.

The Cowboys are listed as seven-point favorites at most spots with several 6 ½-point numbers hanging out there. The total is set at 45 across the board, which should entice 'over' backers with Dallas' propensity for high-scoring affairs. The game will kick off at 7:30 PM EDT from Glendale and will be televised nationally on the NFL Network.

vegasinsider.com

NFL Odds: Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
By: Stephen Nover

It takes a lot to get eliminated from the NFC West before the final week.

But the Arizona Cardinals turned the trick losing to Carolina, 19-12, last Sunday as 2 ½-point road ‘dogs for their eighth loss in nine games.

Now the 4-10 Cardinals get to show some of the nation just how bad they are as they host Dallas Saturday at 4:30 p.m. PT on NFL Network.

It’s a Christmas Day matchup that held far more promise of being a key game before the season started. Instead the Cardinals are absolutely brutal to watch, while the Cowboys rank as one of the most disappointing teams of the season.

The oddsmakers certainly know how brutal the Cardinals are. They’ve installed the 5-9 Cowboys as 6½-point road favorites with the total at 45½.

Arizona ranks 31st in passing and 30th in rushing so it’s no surprise it rates 31st in total offense. The Cardinals are equally inept defensively giving up 26.4 points a game, which ranks 29th. They are 30th in run defense allowing 145.7 yards per contest on the ground.

It’s hard to believe less than two years ago the Cardinals were in the Super Bowl. Just goes to show how much Kurt Warner meant. He went dancing off to the stars and the Cardinals have danced off to oblivion with a succession of bad quarterbacks, the latest being fifth-round rookie John Skelton of Fordham.

Skelton is slated to make his third start after replacing injured Derek Anderson, who is sidelined with a concussion and had lost his job even if he were healthy. Skelton completed 17 of 33 passes for 196 yards and an interception against the Panthers. Like Anderson, he had accuracy problems missing wide open receivers. Skelton’s receivers haven’t helped as Arizona leads the league in dropped passes, according to research compiled by STATS LLC.

Dallas opened 1-7 costing Wade Phillips his job. The Cowboys are 4-2 and 5-1 ATS since Jason Garrett was named interim head coach.

Under Garrett, the Cowboys upset the New York Giants as 11½-point road ‘dogs and Indianapolis as 5½-point road ‘dogs while losing to Philadelphia and New Orleans before escaping Washington this past week, 33-30, as 9½-point home ‘chalk.’

The Cowboys nearly blew a 27-7 lead against the Redskins. Rex Grossman threw for 322 yards and four touchdowns against the Cowboys. The combined 63 points in the Redskins matchup flew ‘over’ the 43½-point total marking the 11th straight game Dallas has gone ‘over.’

The ‘over’ has cashed in 13 of Dallas’ last 16 games. The ‘over’ also has cashed in six of Arizona’s past eight home contests.

Tony Romo’s season officially came to an end this week when he was put on injured reserve with a broken collarbone. Jon Kitna, though, has filled in well accounting for 12 touchdowns in the last six games. The Cowboys are averaging 32.2 points per game during this time frame. Kitna was 25-for-37 for 305 yards and two touchdowns against Washington.

Dallas, however, has surrendered 30 or more points in its last four games. The Cowboys are giving up an average of 31.2 points per game during this span.

The teams last met in 2008 with the Cardinals, winning 30-24, as five-point home ‘dogs. The Cardinals have covered nine of the past 12 times they’ve been home underdogs.

Arizona is likely to be without linebacker Joey Porter, who suffered a right triceps injury against the Panthers. The Cardinals may also be without kick returner LaRod Stephens-Howling (hamstring) and wide receiver Early Doucet, both of whom are ‘questionable.’

Temperatures are expected to be in the 50s with no rain and two mph winds.

Cowboys at Cardinals: What Bettors Need to Know

The Arizona Cardinals were still in a playoff race as late as last week. The Dallas Cowboys have seemingly been out of it contention since September. All in all, just a great Christmas night present from the NFL to the fans.

NOT IN THE CARDS

The Cardinals’ problems began after a loss in the playoffs last season, when quarterback Kurt Warner decided to call it a remarkable career and retire before he turned into a less compelling version of Brett Favre.

There were reports before the season began and even a month into the campaign that former Arizona teammates were calling Warner trying to convince him to comeback.

Derek Anderson wasn’t able to get it done and neither was undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall, who managed one touchdown and six interceptions in parts of six games before finding his way onto injured reserve.

Enter rookie John Skelton, who has continued Arizona’s 2010 tradition of poor quarterback play by completing 46 percent of his passes without a touchdown in three games.

Skelton went 17 of 33 for 196 yards, an interception and a lost fumble in a 19-12 loss at Carolina last weekend.

Here’s a stat pack from the Arizona Republic sure to scare football fans:

Arizona quarterbacks have completed just 50.5 percent of their passes and have just eight TD passes so far this season. That’s pretty crazy when you consider the Cards have 10 return TDs.

COWBOY UP

Backup Dallas QB Jon Kitna has been better than expected while filling in for the injured Tony Romo. Kitna is doing the things a veteran backup is expected to do by throwing for 2,250 yards and 15 touchdowns in nine games.

Kitna’s play has led to success under interim coach Garrett, who was promoted after Wade Phillips was let go.

Dallas has gone 4-2 while scoring at least 27 points in all six games under Garrett. A couple of more wins to close out the season could prompt owner Jerry Jones to take the “interim” tag off Garrett’s nameplate.

DESPISING DALLAS

Cards starting QB John Skelton did not grow up rooting for the Cowboys despite being a Texas native. The rookie says he adopted his distaste for the Boys from his father but never really had a favorite team growing up.

“That was my team, yeah,” Skelton told reporters. “Whoever was against the Cowboys.”

TAKE MY FOOTBALL AWAY

Most people expected a decline in Dallas’ defense when former Wade Phillips was given the pink slip earlier this season. Phillips was not just the head coach but also the man directing the team’s defensive schemes.

Well, the Cowboys have been giving up a lot of points (27.3 since Phillips got the boot) but the unit has been contributing in other ways. Dallas has a league-high 16 takeaways in the last six weeks.

"As a staff, we've tried to create a heightened awareness of the turnover," interim defensive coordinator Paul Pasqualoni told the Dallas Morning News. "Clearly, the turnover is the biggest factor in this game for determining winning and losing. We're trying to make the guys aware that we'd like to go after the ball."

INJURY REPORT

The Cards probably won’t have Derek Anderson as the backup QB on Saturday. He’s listed as doubtful while he deals with his head injury, which means Richard Bartel will be Skelton’s backup.

Outside linebacker Joey Porter, who leads Arizona in sacks with five, has a strained wrist and is questionable. Also for the Cards, return specialist LaRod Stephens-Howling aggravated a hamstring pull and isn’t expected to play against the Cowboys.

Running back Marion Barber should make his return to Dallas’ lineup after missing the past four games due to sore calf. Receiver Roy Williams missed practice this week because of a groin injury and is listed as questionable for Saturday’s game.

TRENDS

The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five December games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.

The Cards are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as home underdogs and the Cowboys are 1-5 in their last six games as road favorites.

The over is 13-3 in Dallas’ last 16 games overall and 6-2 in Arizona’s last eight home games.

Tips and Trends

Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals

COWBOYS: (-7, O/U 45) Dallas will be trying to win consecutive games for just the 2nd time this season. The Cowboys are just 5-9 SU this season, but 4 of those wins have come in their past 6 games. Dallas is 5-9 SU and 6-8 ATS overall this season. Dallas is 3-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Tonight will mark just the 2nd time this year the Cowboys will be the listed road favorite. Offensively, Dallas has scored at least 27 PTS in each of their past 6 games. QB Jon Kitna has filled in admirably for Dallas, as he's throw for 2,250 and 15 TD's during his time as starter. TE Jason Witten has over 900 receiving YDS and 7 TD's this year for the Cowboys. Dallas is allowing 28.3 PPG this year, the 2nd most in the NFL. Against the anemic Cardinals offense, the Cowboys have a legitimate shot at a great game. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Dallas is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in December. The Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Saturday games. The Cowboys are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 road games against a team with a losing home record. Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Cowboys are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall. Over is 9-0 last 9 games against the NFC.

Key Injuries - WR Roy Williams (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

CARDINALS: Only 3 teams in the NFL have a worse record than Arizona. The Cardinals are 4-10 both SU and ATS this year. Arizona has been competitive at home this season, as they are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS. Arizona is 2-2 ATS as the listed home underdog this year. WR Larry Fitzgerald is the lone offensive threat for Arizona, as he's caught 78 balls for 986 YDS and 5 TD's this season. Arizona is averaging just 18.2 PPG, 6th fewest in the NFL. The Cardinals have held 2 of their past 3 opponents under 20 PTS. The Cardinals are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 Saturday games. Arizona is 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Cardinals are 2-5 ATS against a team with a losing record. Arizona is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. Arizona is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games against the NFC.

Cardinals are 9-3 ATS last 12 games as a home underdog.
Over is 6-2 last 8 home games.

Key Injuries - LB Joey Porter (tricep) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 17