What Bettors Need to Know: Saturday's NFL Preseason Action
By SCOTT COOLEY
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-3, 33.5)
Sharp money has moved the spread for this game to as high as 3.5 after opening at 1.5. There are a lot of factors swinging the line but perhaps none more important than the ultimate preseason element—quarterback rotation.
Chad Henne is entering his first season as a starting quarterback and will be followed by Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington and Pat White. White is the only quarterback without an NFL start while the other three combine for 104. Tampa Bay will trot out Josh Freeman (9 starts), Josh Johnson (4 starts) and Rudy Carpenter (0 starts).
Bucs head coach Raheem Morris said that his starters will get “about 12 snaps apiece” or a “series or so.” Morris went 1-3 SU and ATS last preseason while Tony Sparano has a 7-1 career record.
Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3, 33.5)
Ben Roethlisberger is eligible to play in this game but Mike Tomlin is trying to sell tickets and won’t say if he will.
"We're going to make you come to the stadium to check that out," Tomlin said.
Some are speculating that Big Ben won’t appear because Tomlin has said that the starters will only play eight to 12 snaps. Byron Leftwich will be the starter in Week 1 so he could eat up all of that time with the first team. Dennis Dixon, who nearly beat the Ravens in his lone career start last year, is expected to play most of the game. Charlie Batch will see some time in the fourth.
Safety Louis Delmas will not play for Detroit as well as linebacker DeAndre Levy, defensive end Jared DeVries and kicker Jason Hanson. Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill and Drew Stanton will be the quarterback rotation.
In his first preseason as a head coach, Jim Schwartz led the Lions to a 3-1 record in 2009. Tomlin is 10-3 in the preseason since he took over in 2007.
Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 33)
As injury prone as Matt Schaub is, don’t expect him to be on the field long in this game. Gary Kubiak has said that backup Dan Orlovsky will see the majority of snaps in the preseason opener.
"He needs to play a bunch," Kubiak told reporters. "For backup quarterbacks, preseason is their season. I want to take a look at J.D. (John David Booty); he will play. But obviously, Dan is going to play a great deal."
Houston’s running back spot is up for grabs so Steve Slaton, Arian Foster and rookie Ben Tate should all see significant reps. The Texans could be more apt to kick lengthy field goals with Kris Brown and Neil Rackers battling for the starting job.
After sustaining a rib injury it’s unclear whether or not Beanie Wells will run for Arizona. Ken Whisenhunt said that even if he’s the least bit sore there would be no reason to play him.
Matt Leinart and Derek Anderson should see more than just a few series each as neither has run away with the quarterback job during training camp. The Cardinals went 0-4 in the preseason last year and Whisenhunt holds a 2-10 career record.
Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (-1.5, 31.5)
This preseason line has remained steady despite news about Percy Harvin’s recurring migraines. He will likely be on the sidelines for this contest and Sidney Rice is still injured, or holding out, or both. Cedric Griffin and E.J. Henderson are also unlikely to play.
With Brett Favre still wavering about his retirement decision, Tarvaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels will see most of the first-half action. The two have 21 career starts between them and know the offensive system well. Rookie Joe Webb will be the third quarterback in the rotation.
Albert Young is listed as the No. 2 back on the official depth chart behind Adrian Peterson but he, Toby Gerhart and Ryan Moats are all vying for that spot so motivation levels should be high throughout the game.
While Rams fans will be eager to see their franchise quarterback, A.J. Feeley will get the starting nod under center before Sam Bradford enters the game, but Steve Spagnuolo said both will work with the first team offense. Keith Null, who posted a 49.9 rating in four starts last year, will be the third quarterback while rookie Thaddeus Lewis will handle mop-up duty.
Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 34)
Browns coach Eric Mangini has stated that all four of his quarterbacks are likely to play one quarter each. Jake Delhomme will start with Seneca Wallace relieving him. The second half will feature Colt McCoy and Brett Ratliff, but which will appear first is still up in the air.
Rookie running back Montario Hardesty will miss the game as well as Cleveland starting linebacker D'Qwell Jackson, who has a strained pectoral muscle.
Mike McCarthy isn’t expected to play his starters more than a few series. The quarterback rotation will be Aaron Rodgers, Matt Flynn (who many are high on this training camp), Noah Shephard and Graham Harrell.
Linebacker Clay Matthews will not play in the game as well as cornerback Al Harris, safety Atari Bigby and rookie running back James Starks.
There is a 40 percent chance of rain with morning thunderstorms expected in the area Saturday.
Chicago Bears at San Diego Chargers (-3, 33.5)
The Chargers do not have a left tackle right now. Marcus McNeill is the incumbent starter but he’s holding out, backup Brandon Dombrowski has a groin injury, Tra Thomas is recovering from knee surgery and fourth-stringer Nick Richmond will go under the knife soon.
That leaves second-string right tackle Tyronne Green to man the position until someone returns. San Diego may not be looking to drop back Philip Rivers too often in this contest. Shawne Merriman and Vincent Jackson will also miss the game due to holdouts.
Mike Martz could be looking to do some damage in the opener with his new offense in hopes of getting fans excited. He has said that with his complex system he “would imagine that they may do a little bit more than one series” with the starters.
Martz added that he is anxious to see how his second and third-string quarterbacks, Caleb Hanie and Dan LeFevour, handle the pressure since neither has much experience.
Tennessee Titans at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 33.5)
Possibly bucking his normal preseason routine, a few local media outlets are reporting that Jeff Fisher is toying with the idea of playing his starters (except Chris Johnson) a full quarter because he hasn’t been pleased with training camp performance.
The Titans starting defense is going to take a hit with Cortland Finnegan, Vince Fuller and rookie Derrick Morgan expected to miss the game. The quarterback rotation will be Vince Young, Kerry Collins, Chris Simms and Rusty Smith. Collins will get the least amount of work.
Plenty of preseason bettors like to back head coaches in their first year with a team because they have something to prove. Pete Carroll has announced that Matt Hasselbeck is the starter and will be quickly relieved by Charlie Whitehurst, then J.P. Losman and Mike Reilly.
The running back job is wide open at Camp Carroll (like many other positions) so Justin Forsett, Julius Jones and Quinton Ganther will be going all out. Leon Washington is also in the mix but is not expected to play as he continues to recover from a leg injury.
Saturday Preseason Tips
By Kevin Rogers
The first full NFL preseason card provides bettors with seven games to wager on as plenty of back-ups will see substantial playing time in the openers. We'll detail the key contests as a plethora of young quarterbacks look to make their mark on Saturday. Let's start in the Sunshine State with a battle of two squads trying to get over the hump this season.
Buccaneers at Dolphins (-3 ½, 33 ½) - 7:00 PM EST
Miami made one of the biggest splashes in the offseason with its acquisition of Pro Bowl WR Brandon Marshall from Denver to bolster the receiving corps. The Dolphins finished last season with a 7-9 mark, as they look to get back to the postseason after claiming the AFC East crown in 2008. The Bucs, meanwhile, scored the third-fewest points in the NFL last season en route to a 3-13 record.
Tampa Bay played better down the stretch, winning two of the final three games, while owning a 5-4 ATS ledger the last nine contests. The merry-go-round of quarterbacks eventually stopped on 2009 first-round pick Josh Freeman, who started each of the last nine games. The former Kansas State QB may not play past the first series, according to head coach Raheem Morris. The Bucs cashed the 'under' in seven straight games to wrap up the 2009 season, as the Tampa Bay offense scored 10 points or less four times in that span.
These clubs are no strangers to one another in the preseason, meeting each August since 2000. The 'under' has hit in eight of the previous 10 preseason matchups, including a 10-6 victory by the Dolphins at Raymond James Stadium last season. Tony Sparano has been a friend to preseason backers of the Dolphins, owning a 6-1-1 ATS mark, while cashing the 'under' in seven of eight opportunities.
Lions at Steelers (-3, 33 ½) - 7:30 PM EST
Detroit and Pittsburgh both have different quarterback questions heading into the season, as the two teams meet in the preseason for the first time since 2004. Last year's top pick Matthew Stafford enters his second season as the signal-caller for the Lions, while Ben Roethlisberger will miss the first six games of the regular season after getting suspended for violating the league's personal conduct policy.
Steelers' head coach Mike Tomlin has yet to indicate how much Big Ben will play in Saturday's opener, but Tomlin expects starters to take between eight and 12 snaps. On the flip side, the second overall pick from April's draft, Ndamukong Suh will make his Detroit debut on the defensive line. No word on long Stafford will play, but rookie RB Jahvid Best will start in place of the injured Kevin Smith.
Pittsburgh owns a 7-6 ATS preseason record under Tomlin, while cashing in three of four preseason games in 2009. The Lions have won only two regular season games the last two seasons, but Detroit is a solid 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in the preseason since 2008.
Browns at Packers (-2 ½, 34) - 8:00 PM EST
Green Bay looks to make that next step this season after getting eliminated in overtime at Arizona of last season's first round of the playoffs. Cleveland, meanwhile, attempts to rebuild after a 5-11 campaign, starting with Mike Holmgren taking over team president. The Browns finished last season with four straight wins, but there are plenty of new faces competing for the open quarterback job with both Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn out of town.
Cleveland signed Jake Delhomme from Carolina, while acquiring Seneca Wallace from Seattle and drafting former University of Texas star Colt McCoy. The Browns were actually one of the best ATS teams in the league last season, covering the final seven games, while going 10-6 ATS overall. Cleveland looks to bounce back after losing twice to Green Bay last season, including a 17-0 setback at Lambeau Field last August as three-point underdogs.
The Green Bay starters are expected to play about 20 snaps, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The Packers rushed for 230 yards against the Browns in last season's preseason opener, while Rodgers connected with Donald Driver on a 53-yard touchdown strike. Under Mike McCarthy, the Packers are just 8-8 ATS in the preseason, but are 12-4 to the 'over' since his arrival in 2006.
Vikings at Rams (-2, 31 ½) - 8:00 PM EST
The Brett Favre saga continues in Minnesota if he will return this season or ultimately retire. Despite this drama, the game must be played as the defending NFC North champs head south to St. Louis to battle a Rams' club who finished a dreadful 1-15 last season.
The Vikings can seemingly plug Favre back into the fray on September 9 when Minnesota visits New Orleans for the season opener. The Rams don't have that luxury, as April's top draft pick, Sam Bradford prepares for his NFL debut. The former Heisman Trophy winner will not start, as A.J. Feely will start for St. Louis, with Bradford finishing up the first half.
Minnesota owns a profitable 10-6 ATS in the preseason in Brad Childress' four seasons, while hitting the 'under' in three of four preseason openers. Despite St. Louis' struggles in the regular season the last two years (3-29), the Rams own a 5-3 SU/ATS preseason ledger.
Texans (-1 ½, 33) at Cardinals - 8:00 PM EST
Life after Kurt Warner begins for Arizona, as it looks to make the playoffs for the third straight season. The man who was supposed to be the future for the Cardinals when he was drafted in 2006 gets his opportunity now with Matt Leinart assuming the controls of the Arizona offense. Houston is coming off its first winning season in its eight-year franchise history, but the Texans have yet to make the postseason.
Leinart is likely to start Saturday's game, with Derek Anderson seeing plenty of time in the first half. There is no word how long Matt Schaub will play for the Texans, while ex-Lion Dan Orlovsky is expected to get extended snaps for Houston. The Texans are 9-5-2 ATS under Gary Kubiak in the preseason, but just 1-3-2 ATS as a favorite.
Arizona has not been a smart play in the preseason with Ken Whisenhunt on the sidelines, as the Cardinals own a 3-9 ATS mark since 2007. The Cards scored 10 points or less in three of four preseason contests last season, while Arizona is 0-6 SU at home in the preseason under Whisenhunt.
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Preseason News & Notes, Quarterback Rotations, and Key Player Injuries
Vikings vs. Rams
The Minnesota Vikings may get great inspiration at the scheduled miracle return of LB E.J. Henderson. He is coming back from a gruesome fractured left femur injury, which was considered career threatening.
Percy Harvin is out for the Nordic Explorers. The star WR continues to have migraine headache issues. Two Pro Bowlers Adrian Peterson and Sidney Rice have also missed significant camp time because of mystery injuries. Rice is definitely out. Bernard Berrian and Jaymar Johnson get the starts at WR.
Rams star RB Steven Jackson will see very little if any time tonight and throughout the preseason. There is a three-say competition for the backup: Kenneth Darby, Chris Ogbonnaya, and Keith Toston.
It marks the debut of Rams QB Sam Bradford, but he will be the No. 2 behind journeyman AJ Feeley. Feeley will play two or so series and Bradford may play into the third quarter.
St. Louis is very thin at CB with Ron Bartell and a bunch of nobodies. They are furthermore weakened by injuries.
Browns vs. Packers
The Cleveland Browns have a revamped QB rotation with Jake Delhomme the starter, followed by Seneca Wallace and rookie Colt McCoy. The rookie from Texas should she significant playing time in the second half. Brett Ratliff may see mop-up duty.
Cleveland’s secondary is a work in progress. Eric Wright just got hurt and is questionable. First round pick Joe Haden has gotten mixed reviews in training camp thus far.
Titans vs. Seahawks
Tennessee is very thin at TE. Starter William Hayes is doubtful. Top draft pick Derrick Morgan is also likely out and Jacob Ford has missed several practices with a hip flexor. T Jason Jones has been playing a few snaps at DE.
The Titans starters will be in for 12-15 plays. Vince Young starts at QB, but Chris Simms and Rusty Smith will see a lot of time. Kerry Collins may not play at all.
For Seattle, QB Matt Hasselbeck isn’t expected to play more than a series—certainly two at the most. He will give way to Charlie Whitehurst, who will play a lot, then followed by J.P. Losman says Mike Godsey of OffshoreInsiders.com
Seattle is very thinned at LB because of injuries. Two recent signings, guys not even expected to make the team, will be forced into action: Alvin Bowen and Tyjuan Hagler. Big position battle for the Birds is at WR.
Lions vs. Steelers
Detroit is very thin on the OL and RG Stephen Peterman is questionable. S Louis Delmas is out for the Lions. He played in 15 games making 94 tackles last season.
Ben Roethlisberger is eligible to play in NFLX. He may see some time with the first team. Also expected to play at QB for the Steelers at QB is Byron Leftwich, Charlie Batch, and Dennis Dixon. Starters will play 8-12 snaps.
For Detroit, it’s Matthew Stafford, Shaun Hill, and Drew Stanton. They will be without RB Kevin Smith, who rushed for 747 yards last year and TE Brandon Pettigrew, who had 30 catches last year.
Texas vs. Cardinals
Of course Arizona will have a new starting QB with the retirement of Kurt Warner. Biblical bust Matt Leinart continues to struggle and presumed backup, former Browns starter Derek Anderson may make a run at the top spot.
Leinart will play the first quarter. Derek Anderson will take over, but the offensive line is expected to play into the second quarter. Conversely, the defense may not play as much.
For Houston, backup Dan Orlovsky will get the most snaps at QB says Bob Warner of Lines-Maker.com. He will play about two quarters
John David Booty will also play as starter Matt Schaub won’t play much. “More than a series for Schaub would be a shock,” says Warner.
Despite their regular season success, the Redbirds is 2-10 straight up under Ken Whisenhunt.
For bettors who like position battles, the Texans have a big one at RB. Arizona will have a lot of crowd support as the game is sold out.
Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
Tampa starters will play about 12-15 snaps. Colt McCoy and Josh Freeman will each get 12-15 snaps at QB.
It’s the first year as starting QB for Dolphins Chad Henne. He will be followed in the rotation by Tyler Thigpen, Chad Pennington, and Pat White. Thigpen and White may each play more than a quarter.
Thigpen has been horrible in practice, throwing a lot of interceptions reports Brian Kayma of ScoresOddsPicks.com
Tampa is without TE Kellen Winslow, CB Aquib Talib, CB Myron Lewis, among others.
Bears vs. Chargers
Chicago starters could play as much as the entire first half tonight said coach Lovie Smith.
LB Shawne Merriman is out having just ended his holdout. WR Vincent Jackson and LT Marcus McNeil are holdouts, making San Diego is very thin at LT. Merriman’s backup Larry English is doubtful. RB Darren Sproles is out while LT Tra Thomas, and LB Larry English are also out.
Chicago has a revamped offensive line and has struggled greatly against 3-4 defenses in the past. They’ve been practicing against a 4-3.