Saturday's Gridiron Battles
By Judd Hall
Week 3 of the NFL’s preseason schedule is up and running with nine games on the schedule for Saturday. We’ll open up with a battle between possible playoff teams in Baltimore. Then make our way to Houston for a Lone Star State showdown before a battle in the bay.
Giants at Ravens (-4½, 38) – 7:30 p.m. EDT
The Giants looked like one of the teams to beat last season after opening the year with five straight wins. That was just a mirage as they stumbled to a 3-8 mark in the final 15 games to miss out on the postseason party.
In only two preseason games, New York has mirrored the 2009 campaign. They looked sharp in its 31-16 “road” win over the Jets, following it up with a subpar performance in a 24-17 home loss to the Steelers last Saturday night. To be fair, the tilt against Pittsburgh was without both Eli Manning and Jim Sorgi.
The G-Men have also seen some bumps and bruises in the exhibitions as well. All Manning could hear was calliope music after not telling the rest of the team he was changing a play early against the Jets. That miscue caused him to lose his helmet, leading to a three-inch gash on his forehead. That forced him to miss last week’s game altogether. Same thing goes for Sorgi, who played well in the opener (8-of-15, 146 yards, 2 touchdowns). But he suffered a shoulder injury at the end of the preseason opener that will keep him out until at least the first week of the regular season.
Everything couldn’t be better for the Ravens. They improved its middle-of-the-pack receiving corp with Anquan Boldin and Donte Stallworth. Baltimore’s new duo has accounted for five catches and 106 yards. Needless to say this has made Joe Flacco’s job a little easier.
These two teams have seen stark contrasts in how they handle the preseason for total players. New York has cashed the ‘over’ in both of its games, while the ‘under’ is 2-0 for Baltimore.
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The Ravens have been a strong home team during John Harbaugh’s tenure as coach during recent preseason tilts, having gone 3-0 straight up and 2-1 against the spread. The ‘under’ is a fantastic 5-1 in these tilts as well.
While that info might lead you to take Baltimore, there is some info to know. The recent preseason history between these two teams has seen the visitors go 5-2 SU and ATS, with the ‘over’ holding a slight 4-3 advantage.
Cowboys at Texans (-3, 40½) – 8:00 p.m. EDT, CBS
Expectations are high in the Lone Star State when it comes to football.
The Cowboys know that their home stadium will play host to Super Bowl XLV. The only question that remains for them is if they will be the first team to play the game on their home field. Preseason football isn’t much of a gauge, but the 2-1 record has to make fans and bettors alike happy with their chances.
Dallas hasn’t shown much in the way of its offensive gameplan during the exhibition. The ‘Boys are 29th in the preseason on the attack, averaging 251.3 yards per game. And Tony Romo has completed just 46 percent of his passes so far, tossing a pick and a touchdown in limited play. That will change on both offense and defense for the Cowboys as Wade Phillips has stated that the starters will be playing into the third quarter.
Houston finally looks like it will finally get to the playoffs after posting its first 9-7 record in 2009 under Gary Kubiak. Matt Schaub has picked up where he left off last year with his passing prowess. In limited play, Michael Vick’s former backup has gone 13-of-16 for 195 yards and a touchdown through the air. Schaub’s extended play on Saturday night will no doubt help an offense that hasn’t done much on third down in the preseason, converting just 6 of the Texans’ 22 chances.
These two teams have been on opposite sides of the spectrum when it comes to the totals: Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 3-0, while the ‘over’ has hit in both preseason tests for the Texans.
One thing that bettors should keep an eye on is that the Cowboys are 2-5 SU and ATS in their seven road preseason tests under Phillips. The ‘over’ has gone 5-2 in that stretch as well.
49ers at Raiders (-1, 36) – 9:00 p.m. EDT
Is there a reason to be optimistic in the Bay Area? Still a little too soon to tell, but things are looking up.
San Francisco comes into this game having won both of its preseason tilts both SU and ATS. Although that cover as 3½-point home favorites last Sunday in a 15-10 win over Minnesota was a gift backers of the 49ers.
For the 49ers’ Alex Smith, he’s just happy to have Jimmy Raye running the offense. Doesn’t sound like much but this is the first time the QB from Utah has had the same offensive coordinator for two straight years. It hasn’t looked like the familiarity has helped as Smith has completed 54.5 percent of his passes for 125 yards and one pick.
One of the bigger positives of this preseason has been the play of Anthony Dixon. All the rookie out of Mississippi State has done is run for 154 yards and two scores on 41 carries.
Oakland has enjoyed the preseason with its new QB Jason Campbell, but they also found a suitable backup to him. Kyle Boller has taken advantage of injuries to Bruce Gradkowski and Charlie Frye with the extra snaps at camp. The result has been Boller completing 19-of-30 passes for 203 yards and tosses one touchdown.
Tom Cable has had the Raiders ready and willing to help out bettors as they’re 4-3 SU and 5-2 ATS in the preseason. The ‘over’ has also gone 5-2 in these games as well.
This head-to-head battle has been decidedly tilted to the home clubs. Home teams have gone 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS. Gamblers that fancy totals should note that the ‘over’ has hit in three of the last four meetings.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Saturday's NFL Preseason Action
By SCOTT COOLEY
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 38)
Lions head coach Jim Schwartz has outlined his Week 3 preseason gameplan and would like for his starters to play into the third quarter of Saturday’s game.
"I'm not 100 percent set on it," Schwartz said. "There'll be some exceptions in there, but for the most part I'd like to be able to do that."
Matthew Stafford and the other first-teamers played four series against Denver last week, which spanned over the first two quarters. Shaun Hill backed him up in the second half before Drew Stanton came in for Detroit’s final two possessions.
Jake Delhomme and the Browns starters played the first half of last Saturday’s game versus the Rams. Seneca Wallace also got some reps with the first-stringers during the third quarter before giving way to Colt McCoy and Brett Ratliff in the fourth.
McCoy didn’t complete a pass during his two, three-and-out series and many have speculated that he’s on the roster bubble. Mangini said that Delhomme and Wallace would see the majority of playing time Saturday while McCoy and Ratliff will split time in the fourth preseason game.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills (+3, 35)
It’s not even the regular season yet and Terrell Owens has initiated a war of words. T.O. placed a target on his back after dubbing himself “Batman” and joining forces with Chad Ochocinco (Robin) in Cincinnati.
"For this week, address us (the secondary) by Mr. Freeze,” Bills cornerback Drayton Florence said. “We're just going to go out and try to shut them down."
Bettors must be aware that this will be the Bengals’ fourth preseason contest after playing in the Hall of Fame Game. That may mean the starters won’t be on the field as long as expected. Last week, Carson Palmer and the starters played through the first half (seven series) before J.T. O’Sullivan saw action in the third quarter and then Jordan Palmer in the final frame.
The Bills will again be thin in the backfield as Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch recover from injuries but rookie C.J. Spiller shined in his starting role last Thursday. Buffalo will be without linebacker Reggie Torbor for three weeks.
New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (-4, 37.5)
This line was off the board until Thursday because the playing status of Eli Manning hadn’t been confirmed. He has deemed himself ready to play but there has been no official word from the Giants. Backup quarterback Jim Sorgi will miss the game with a shoulder injury.
Sportsbooks opened the spread anywhere from 3.5 to 7 in favor of the Ravens but that has since settled at 4. Cornerback Aaron Ross, safety Michael Johnson, wide receiver Ramses Barden, center Shaun O’Hara and running back D.J. Ware will not play for New York.
The Ravens are 2-0 ATS this year and 5-1 ATS in their last six preseason games. Bettors can reach back to a John Harbaugh quote from the first week as the source of the team’s success.
“You can lose all four preseason games and go out and win a Super Bowl. My guess is that’s been done before,” Harbaugh said. “But we sure rather win. I’d rather get the feel of winning. So we’re going to try to win them all. That’s our goal.”
Harbaugh had his starters play one possession into the second half of Baltimore’s third preseason game last year.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3, 36.5)
The Bucs surfaced as 1.5-point favorites for this game but the injury to Josh Freeman has moved the spread upward. Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback will miss the remainder of the preseason after fracturing the tip of his right thumb.
Josh Johnson started four games for Tampa Bay last season and will assume the starting role. The team went 0-4 in those games. Rudy Carpenter will serve as the backup under center and the Bucs resigned Jevan Snead as insurance. It hasn’t been pretty, but Tampa Bay is 2-0 ATS this preseason.
Jacksonville has yielded 28 and 27 points in their two preseason outings with both games sailing over the total by an average of 19.7 points.
Jack Del Rio had his regulars play the entire first half of last year’s Week 3 preseason contest.
Rain has battered Florida for the past few weeks and there is a 50-60 percent chance of precipitation leading up to this game. Forecasts have projected a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms Saturday night.
Tennessee Titans at Carolina Panthers (-3, 36.5)
The Titans looked dominant in Monday night’s preseason win over Arizona but will have to deal with a short turnaround as well as travel this week.
Vince Young and most of Tennessee’s starters played four offensive possessions Monday. Chris Johnson only appeared in one series.
In Week 3 of the preseason last year, Jeff Fisher’s regulars didn’t even play through the first half but it was technically the fourth exhibition because the Titans also played in the Hall of Fame Game. Fisher holds a career 4-9 record in Week 3 preseason games.
Carolina has scored a total of 15 points in two preseason contests and to no surprise is 0-2 ATS. Matt Moore and the starting offense haven’t posted a touchdown to date and that unit only managed 45 yards on 33 first-half plays during a 9-3 loss to the Jets last weekend.
The Panthers are 0-7 in their last seven preseason contests. John Fox had his starters play a full three quarters in last year’s Week 3 game.
Seattle Seahawks at Minnesota Vikings (-5, 38)
Brad Childress had planned on giving Brett Favre around 10 snaps in Sunday’s game versus San Francisco but that plan was adjusted after he took a hard-knock sack. Favre took four snaps and completed one pass for 13 yards before exiting.
Last year, Favre missed Minnesota’s first preseason game, played sparingly in the second and then logged one possession into the second half of Week 3. Tarvaris Jackson will serve as the backup this week but Sage Rosenfels could see the majority of action during the second half as rumors continue to swirl that he is being showcased as trade bait.
Sidney Rice was never going to play in this game but after undergoing hip surgery that will keep him out half the season, forcing the Vikings to sign veteran Javon Walker as insurance. They also recently traded for former Dolphin Greg Camarillo.
The Seahawks were dealt a major blow when their sixth-overall pick, offensive tackle Russell Okung, sustained a high-ankle sprain last Saturday. He will miss the remainder of the preseason and possibly more.
Matt Hasselbeck appeared in all five series during the first half last weekend. Charlie Whitehurst was under center for the third and fourth quarters. Justin Forsett started the game at tailback but Leon Washington looked better than Forsett and Julius Jones and practiced with the first team all week. Seattle is 0-2 ATS in the preseason.
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans (-3, 40.5)
This game total has been bet up two points since opening at 38.5. The Cowboys played to the over in four preseason games last year but all three of their 2010 contests have gone under.
Tony Romo and the starters amassed a total of 49 yards during four, first-half possessions last weekend. Jon Kitna was under center in the third quarter before giving way to Stephen McGee.
Dallas will be without a myriad of regulars Saturday including offensive linemen Marc Columbo and Kyle Kosier, safety Gerald Sensabaugh, defensive end Marcus Spears and linebacker Keith Brooking. Thin at the tight end position, Martellus Bennett is expected to return for this game.
The Texans have moved spreads in their favor for both preseason games thus far but they lost and failed to cover the number in both.
Houston’s defense was nonexistent last Saturday when the Saints hung 28 first-half points on them. Brian Cushing is playing in the preseason but the team is still very thin in the linebacker corps. Xavier Adibi and Danny Clark are not expected to play this week while Darryl Sharpton has swollen knee, but Gary Kubiak said he should play.
“We’ve got some issues, especially at the linebacker position,” Kubiak said. “We’re really down on numbers, especially at that position.”
Matt Schaub and Dan Orlovsky will be the two-man rotation at quarterback Saturday. Kubiak had Schaub play for the first half in last year’s Week 3 preseason game but some of the starters, including Steve Slaton, saw three quarters of action.
Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-3.5, 36.5)
Ken Whisenhunt announced Thursday that Derek Anderson will start the game but the quarterback position battle between he and Matt Leinart is still ongoing. The plan is that Leinart will come off the bench late in the second quarter and play into the second half.
Leinart played in three series Monday night, all three-and-outs, while Anderson led the offense to a field goal during his five possessions. Whisenhunt had his starters play the first two quarters of their Week 3 preseason game a year ago.
The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven preseason games and have to deal with the shortened-week factor as well as travel from Tennessee, back to Arizona and then to Chicago.
Mike Martz said the Bears’ offense has appeared “dysfunctional at times” this preseason because that’s how it’s supposed to look. He added that the playbook has barely opened as the offense is still experimenting with different things.
Lovie Smith had his starters play the first half of last year’s Week 3 preseason contest. Safety Josh Bullocks, who has been sidelined with a quad injury, is expected to return for this game.
San Francisco 49ers at Oakland Raiders (-1, 36)
The Battle of the Bay will feature two unbeaten teams straight up and against the spread. Since 2003, the winner of this rivalry has flip-flopped every year, so history suggests Oakland will win after the Niners took the game 21-20 last preseason.
But early money didn’t follow the trend as this spread has dropped from an opener of 2.5. San Francisco hasn’t covered the spread against the Raiders in the last two meetings.
When asked about starters’ playing time, Oakland head coach Tom Cable said, “We’ll treat this week more like how a normal game week would be.”
Jason Campbell has played the entire first half of each of the preseason games thus far, so he should go at least that long. Last year in Week 3, Cable had his starters play midway through the third quarter.
After missing the first two preseason contests, Mike Singletary suggested that Frank Gore will play this week. Singletary also said that Vernon Davis was day-to-day but that Michael Crabtree will suit up and play about a quarter.
Last year during Week 3, Singletary had his starters play one possession into the third quarter.
Eli Manning returns to action against Ravens
By: StatFox
Eli Manning is expected to play after missing the last game due to suffering a cut on his forehead, which required 12 stitches. With backup Jim Sorgi also out of action in the Giants’ 24-17 loss to the Steelers, Rhett Bomar took all of the snaps, completing half of his 26 attempts for 167 yards and an INT. The G-men rushed the ball successfully, gaining 129 yards on 30 attempts (4.3 yards per carry). Ahmad Bradshaw and Andre Brown each found the end zone.
The Ravens have allowed a total of 15 points in their two preseason wins. Joe Flacco and backup Marc Bulger have posted nearly identical stat lines. Flacco is 17-28 for 192 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, while Bulger is 18-28 for 197 yards without a TD or INT. After uncharacteristically struggling on the ground (61 yards) in their opener, the Ravens churned out 143 yards and a pair of TD on 29 carries (4.9 yards per carry) in game two at Washington.
The Ravens are 2-0 straight up and ATS so far this preseason. FoxSheets show that this favors the Giants. Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (BALTIMORE) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in August games. (50-24 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*).
Tips and Trends
Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions
BROWNS: Cleveland has played in 2 very close games, winning impressively on the road in Green Bay, and losing at home to the Rams. The loss to St. Louis stung a bit, simply because Cleveland had 113 more total yards than the Rams did. The last time these two teams met, the teams combined for 75 PTS, with the Lions winning 38-37. Cleveland will look to QB Jake Delhomme to exact some revenge on the Lions, as he's been surprisingly productive this preseason. Delhomme has thrown for 193 YDS and a TD for a QB Rating of 116.1 this preseason. Proven backup QB Seneca Wallace has also been solid, as he had 3 TD's this preseason with a QB Rating of 95.3. Just like the Lions, the Cleveland defense has allowed an average of 21.5 PPG in their 2 preseason games thus far. Against the Lions, the Browns are shorthanded at RG, with injuries and dismissals. Highly touted QB Colt McCoy is also fighting for a roster spot, although he looks like he's on the outside looking in.
Cleveland is 1-1 both SU and ATS this preseason.
Key Injuries - DB Chris Roberson (ankle) is out.
Projected Score: 17
LIONS: (-2.5, O/U 38) Detroit has had a very productive preseason, despite being a pedestrian 1-1 so far. The Lions have played both of their preseason games on the road, yet they've been able have more yards than their opposition in both games. QB's Matthew Stafford and Shaun Hill have both been solid, as both have QB Ratings over 90. Stafford has throw for 191 YDS and 2 TD's, against a lone INT. Defensively, the Lions have given up an average of 21.5 PPG in their 2 preseason games this year. Considering their overall struggles of the past few years, it's no surprise that the Lions are bringing in talented players who failed with other teams. Head coach Jim Schwartz has voiced his displeasure with his 2nd team defense, as well as the punting coverage units. At home, the Lions will look to build momentum with their 2nd win in 3 preseason games this season.
Detroit is 1-1 both SU and ATS this preseason.
Key Injuries - K Jason Hanson (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)
Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans
COWBOYS: Dallas will be playing their final preseason game of the year, so it's very questionable how much playing time the 1st units will get. Dallas is coming off a great road win in San Diego, as they were able to outlast the Chargers 16-14. All 3 preseason games for Dallas have been low scoring, with no side scoring more than 17 PTS in the 3 games total. To no surprise, all 3 games went Under the posted total. The Cowboys are a bit concerned with their offense, as they averaged less than 14 PPG this preseason. Star QB Tony Romo only threw for 141 YDS this preseason, with a QB Rating of only 58.8. On the other side of the ball, the Dallas defense has been superb during the preseason. The Cowboys have only allowed 38 PTS in their 3 preseason games this year. CB Terrance Newman has been especially solid, earning rave reviews from fellow teammates and from the coaching staff this preseason.
Dallas is 2-1 both SU and ATS this preseason. WR Dez Bryant (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 13
TEXANS: (-3, O/U 40.5) Houston has been one of the more disappointing teams this preseason, as they've lost both of their games both SU and ATS. Houston lost to both Arizona and New Orleans, two tough NFC teams. Finally at home, Houston will look to put their best foot forward tonight in the most important preseason game of the year. Houston has been working hard on changing their identify on offense, looking to run the football far more this year. Unfortunately, Houston has had 3 critical fumbles this preseason, a cause for concern after all the fumbles they had last year. QB Matt Schaub is the leader of this team, and he's been stellar this preseason. Schaub has thrown for 195 YDS this preseason, while completing better than 80% of his passes for a QB Rating of 138.3. Defensively, the Texans need to improve in a hurry as they've given up 57 PTS in 2 games thus far.
Houston is 0-2 both SU and ATS this preseason.
Key Injuries - LB Xavier Adibi (groin) is out.
Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)