NFL News and Notes Sunday 1/10

BALTIMORE (9 - 7) at NEW ENGLAND (10 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 129-98 ATS (+21.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 82-58 ATS (+18.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 57-34 ATS (+19.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
BALTIMORE is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 1-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

GREEN BAY (11 - 5) at ARIZONA (10 - 6)

Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
GREEN BAY is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
GREEN BAY is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC West division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BALTIMORE vs. NEW ENGLAND
Baltimore is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
New England is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore
New England is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

GREEN BAY vs. ARIZONA
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Green Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 games
Arizona is 9-4 SU in its last 13 games

Baltimore at New England

Baltimore
6-1 Under off road game
0-3 ATS at New England

New England
17-6 Under in playoff games
11-5 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Green Bay at Arizona

Green Bay
11-4-1 ATS this season
6-0 ATS vs. NFC West

Arizona
4-0 Under as a home favorite of 7 points or less
5-1 Under revenging home loss by 21+ points

Ravens at Patriots
By Kevin Rogers

The early kickoff on the Sunday slate of Wild Card football involves an intriguing matchup in Foxboro between the Patriots and Ravens. New England returns to the playoffs after missing last season despite an 11-5 record. The Pats finished one game worse than last year's mark, but Bill Belichick's team ruled at home, winning all eight games at Gillette Stadium.

The Ravens needed a Week 17 victory at Oakland to clinch a playoff berth, as John Harbaugh's squad finished a roller-coaster season at 9-7. Baltimore began the season 3-0 SU/ATS, while tallying at least 30 points in each game. The Ravens then took a step back with three straight losses against eventual division champions in New England, Cincinnati, and Minnesota. Baltimore alternated wins and losses each of the next six weeks, but finished strong with three wins in its final four contests.

New England held off Baltimore in Week 4 at home, 27-21 as one-point 'chalk.' Both Tom Brady (258 yards, TD) and Joe Flacco (264 yards, 2 TD) played well, but the difference was a Brady to Randy Moss touchdown strike that put the game away for the Pats.

The big story stemming from New England's Week 17 setback at Houston was the loss of the league's leader in receptions, Wes Welker, to a torn ACL and MCL in his knee. Welker is obviously out for the playoffs, but the Pats will definitely miss his 123 receptions and 1,348 yards. Rookie wideout Julian Edelman will take Welker's place, as the former Kent State standout caught ten passes for 103 yards last Sunday following Welker's injury.

The Patriots ranked third in the league in total offense (397.3 yards/game), but yet that did not translate into a ton of 'overs.' New England finished 'under' the total in ten of 16 games, but six of those 'unders' came away from Foxboro. Baltimore started the season with 'overs' in four of its first six games, but concluded with 'unders' in seven of the final ten contests.

Belichick and Brady are nearly automatic in the playoffs at home, putting together an 8-0 SU mark. Covering the points has not been as easy, going 4-3-1 ATS, however, two of those non-covers came as favorites of nearly two touchdowns. In the Belichick/Brady era, the Pats are 14-3 SU and 8-8-1 ATS in the postseason, but have failed to cash each of the last four dating back to 2006.

This is the third appearance for the Ravens in the postseason over the last four years, with Baltimore making a run all the way to the AFC Title game last season. In Harbaugh's debut as head coach in the playoffs, Baltimore won at Miami, 27-9 as four-point road favorites. The Ravens followed that up with a 13-10 road victory at top-seeded Tennessee as three-point 'dogs in the divisional playoffs. Baltimore's dream ended in the AFC Championship game with a 23-14 loss at Pittsburgh, falling as six-point 'dogs.

In the Harbaugh tenure, the Ravens are 13-1 SU and 12-2 ATS playing a team that is coming off a loss. Granted, five of the wins this season in that spot came against non-playoff teams. The only victory this season under these circumstances came at home against the Steelers, 23-20 in overtime, as Pittsburgh played without QB Ben Roethlisberger.

VI capper Joe Nelson feels the Patriots have been tested plenty this season, and being at home is advantageous, "New England's losses all came against quality opponents that were in the playoff race, while all five defeats came on the road as New England went 8-0 at home along with Minnesota as the only teams to go undefeated at home. The Ravens and Jets were the only playoff teams that New England defeated, but the overall schedule rated as one of the toughest in the league."

On the flip side, Nelson points out the Ravens' struggles against playoff-type teams, "Baltimore beat San Diego early in the season, but the Ravens have not done much against quality teams since. Baltimore only lost to playoff teams and Pittsburgh, but this is also a team that failed in several big games and struggled to beat Oakland with a playoff spot on the line last week. This will be the third straight week on the road for the Ravens playing the final two regular season games on the road, including West Coast travel last week, making this a very tough situation."

This will be a difficult task for Baltimore to duplicate last season's playoff success, "The Ravens were a strong rushing team and also had a few big games in the air, but winning in New England in the playoffs will be a very tough task. The injury to Welker certainly stings for the Patriots on offense, but the maligned New England defense was very tough at home, allowing less than ten points per game in the last five home contests. There are more question marks for New England this season than in most years but this is still the team to beat in the AFC," Nelson says.

Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED says 70% of the early action came on the Ravens, "This game has the bettors stumped due to the season-ending injury Welker sustained last week. The Pats are a big-time public favorite, but now the bettors aren't sure now one way or the other how their team will do without their best wideout."

The Patriots opened as 3½-point favorites, but according to Scott, there has been very little movement, "The line hasn't budged since the opening number. There is a bit more point spread money on the Ravens, but the Patriots are taking majority of the teaser action (95%) bringing the line to +2½ or better. The total is only getting teaser action at this point, as 'under' 49 or better is the play."

New England is currently listed as 3½-point favorites, with the total set at 43 in most spots. The game kicks off Sunday afternoon at 1:00 PM EST, and will be nationally televised on CBS.

vegasinsider.com

Green Bay at Arizona
By Brian Edwards

The first weekend of the NFL Playoffs will wrap up late Sunday afternoon in Phoenix, as the red-hot Packers return to the desert to try to duplicate what they did in a somewhat meaningless performance last Sunday.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Arizona (10-6 straight up, 9-7 against the spread) as a three-point favorite at an even-money price, with the total starting at 48½. During the course of the week as it has become more clear that Arizona wide receiver Anquan Boldin is very iffy for this contest, the number has moved dramatically.

In fact, as of early Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Green Bay (11-5 SU, 11-4-1 ATS) adjusted to the short ‘chalk.’ Most spots had the Packers favored by one with the total down to 47½.

Mike McCarthy’s team comes into the playoffs as the NFC’s hottest team. The Pack has won seven of its eight games since a stunning loss at Tampa Bay. The only loss during this surge came on the final play of the game at Pittsburgh. Most importantly, Green Bay owns a 7-0-1 ledger versus the number over this stretch.

These teams met at the University of Phoenix Stadium last week, as the Packers dealt out woodshed treatment in a 33-7 win as three-point road underdogs. The 40 combined points stayed ‘under’ the 42-point total.

We should mention that Ken Whisenhunt opted to play Kurt Warner for just a few series, as he completed 4-of-6 passes for 31 yards without a touchdown or interception. Aaron Rodgers continued his stellar play, connecting on 21-of-26 throws for 235 yards and one touchdown without being picked off.

Since the loss to the Bucs, Rodgers has an incredible 14/2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He has not been picked off in seven of the eight games, as the lone interceptions came in a 27-14 home win over Baltimore.

Rodgers has been nothing short of sensational in his second full season as a starter. The California product has completed 64.7 percent of his passes for 4,434 yards with a 30/7 TD-INT ratio. Although he got knocked around quite a bit when the offensive line was struggling earlier this year, Rodgers once again started all 16 games, showing the toughness of a certain predecessor at Lambeau Field.

Rodgers has two of the NFL’s most reliable wideouts in Greg Jennings and Donald Driver. Jennings had 68 receptions for 1,113 and four touchdowns during the regular season, while Driver hauled in 70 catches for 1,061 yards and six scores.

The ground game was key to Green Bay’s run to the NFC Championship Game two seasons ago when RB Ryan Grant was a rookie. Likewise, the lack of a ground attack was the Pack’s Achilles’ heel in 2008. But Grant has re-emerged in 2009, rushing 282 times for 1,253 yards and 11 touchdowns. That’s good for a 4.2 yards-per-carry average.

The trend in the NFL has been for the Super Bowl runner-up to have a hangover the following season and miss the playoffs. Think about the Pats in ’08, the Bears in ’07, the Panthers in ’04, the Raiders in ’03, etc., etc., etc. However, this didn’t apply to the Cardinals, who lost a heartbreaker to the Steelers in the final minute of Super Bowl XLIII.

Although they played in the weakest division in football, we still have to credit Arizona for getting to the postseason and once again, it has a chance to get on a roll. For bettors thinking along those lines, the Packers are Cardinals, at least to me, seem to offer the most value at the future book as the postseason begins.

“We have Green Bay with 16/1 odds to win the Super Bowl, while Arizona is at 18/1,” BoDog Sportsbook Manager Richard Gardner said on Thurdsay’s edition of the Power Hours. “That may seem odd since this week’s game is at Arizona and basically a pick ‘em, but our players at BoDog are obviously buying into Aaron Rodgers and the hot streak the Packers have been on here recently.”

There were several key injuries coming out of last week’s contest. Green Bay CB Charles Woodson, who has enjoyed a marvelous season, sustained a shoulder bruise, but he returned to practice at full speed Thursday and is listed as “probable.”

Arizona CB Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie has a knee contusion that limited him in practice this week, but he has been upgraded to “probable.” But Boldin remains “questionable.” He hasn’t practiced all week and is considered a game-time decision.

Boldin’s potential absence would be a huge loss. He had 85 receptions for 1,029 yards and five TDs during the regular season. Larry Fitzgerald had 97 catches for 1,019 yards and 13 TDs. Warner, who made 15 starts but left two of those rather early, threw for 3,758 yards with a 27/14 TD-INT ratio.

Arizona’s ground attack has been improved with the dismissal of Edgerrin James and the addition of Beanie Wells from out of Ohio St. as a late first-round pick. Wells and Tim Hightower have combined to rush for 1,391 yards and 15 TDs. Wells is averaging 4.5 YPC, while Hightower is gaining 4.2 YPC.

For whatever reasons, Arizona has played its best football on the road this year. In fact, the Cards are just 4-4 both SU and ATS at home. On the other hand, Green Bay has thrived on the road with a 5-3 SU record and a 6-2 ATS mark.

“This is Green Bay’s third trip to Phoenix this year,” Bruce Marshall of The Gold Sheet said. “The Packers went out to the desert in the preseason and last week. I’ve watched both of those games and maybe I shouldn’t even consider the preseason one but in both contests when first-stringers were on the field, Aaron Rodgers just toyed with Arizona’s defense.

“The thing that’s bothered the Packers, particularly early in the year, is pass rush on Rodgers. But Arizona doesn’t get great pressure on opposing QBs, especially not from off the edge. And if you give Rodgers time to throw, this guy is murder.”

The ‘under’ is a lucrative 11-5 overall for Arizona, 6-2 in its home games. Regardless of the venue, the Cardinals have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 in their last seven games. Meanwhile, Green Bay has watched its totals go 8-8 overall, 4-4 in its road assignments.

Kickoff is scheduled for 4:40 p.m. Eastern on Fox.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

During McCarthy’s four-year tenure, Green Bay owns a 22-10 ATS record in 32 road games.

The Cardinals have been home underdogs six times on Whisenhunt’s watch dating back to the start of the 2007 campaign. They are 5-1 ATS in those six games, including this year’s 30-17 win over Minnesota as 3½-point home puppies.

Tom Brady has started many home playoff games during his brilliant career. The Pats have never lost when he’s been under center in those contests.

If Dallas win at Philadelphia and therefore sends the Arizona-Green Bay winner to New Orleans, I like the Pack-Cards winner to win outright at the Superdome next week.

Leftover comments from Marshall of the Gold Sheet about the Cardinals: “I just don’t know if this team can catch lightning in a bottle two years in a row. They are in big trouble against Green Bay.”

Also from Marshall: “I think Dallas and Green Bay are the two best teams in the NFC right now. If you’re thinking about a parlay, those could be your two teams this weekend.”

vegasinsider.com

What Bettors Need to Know: Ravens at Patriots
By RICKY DIMON

The team that won the Super Bowl in the first full season of the recently-concluded decade will face the undisputed team of the decade as the Ravens and Patriots square off in Foxboro on Sunday afternoon.

Baltimore (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) won three of its last four games to sneak into the playoffs as the AFC’s sixth and final seed.

New England (10-6, 7-7-2 ATS) showed few signs of its former dominant self throughout the season, but the team still captured the AFC East without much difficulty.

Line movement

The Patriots opened as 3.5-point favorites at most betting sites and the line has been firmly entrenched in a 1-point range between -3 and -4. The total opened at 43 and never moved.

Fox-brrrrrr-o

The weather forecast calls for a high of 25 degrees in Foxboro on Sunday, which is supposed to be the coldest day of the entire upcoming week. Complete sun is expected with no chance of rain, while the wind could blow up to 18 mph.

Injury report

The Ravens have no new injuries to report. On the defensive side of the ball, Ed Reed (groin), Tavares Gooden (groin), and Haloti Ngata (ankle) were limited earlier in the week, but they all practiced in full Thursday and are good to go.

For the Patriots, the news is nowhere near as good. Wes Welker tore both the ACL and MCL in his left knee and will be out for the playoffs. Guard Dan Connolly, listed as questionable, has been unable to practice this week and is unlikely to play.

New England will at least have Randy Moss and Vince Wilfork at its disposal Sunday. Moss was a no-show at Thursday practice, but by all accounts his minor knee problem is a non-issue.

The young and the Wes-less

It won’t be easy for New England to make up for the loss of Welker (123 catches, 1348 yards, 4 TDs). Tom Brady—and everyone else—knows it.

“You can't replace him, there's no doubt about that,” Brady explained to the media. “He is everything you ask for. Everyone I think in different areas has to pick it up. We all have to do more. I think that's the commitment we have to make to one another.”

While it will be up to the entire team to help fill the void, rookie receiver Julian Edelman (37 catches, 359 yards, 1 TD) is expected to start opposite Randy Moss. Edelman stepped in last Sunday after Welker went down in the first quarter and caught 10 passes for 103 yards.

“He comes in and he has kind of the same chemistry as Wes Welker has,” Baltimore linebacker Ray Lewis said of Edelman. “So we just have to understand to come and play the New England Patriots in totality.”

Prior engagement

The Patriots have already played host to Baltimore once this season, on October 4. They handed the Ravens their first loss in the form of a 27-21 victory, as Brady passed for 258 yards and one touchdown while adding another score on the ground.

Ray Rice racked up 103 rushing yards for the Ravens, but they needed a defense touchdown from Dwan Edwards midway through the third quarter just to keep it close.

Strength versus strength

The Patriots are third in the NFL in total offense at 397.3 yards per game, just barely trailing New Orleans and Dallas. The Ravens are in third in the NFL in total defense allowing only 300.5 yards per game.

Even though Baltimore boasts a strong pass defense and won’t have to deal with Welker, it needs Lewis, Terrell Suggs, and Trevor Pryce to put pressure on Brady in order to slow down the New England offense.

Trending topics

The home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings between the two teams. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six against the Patriots and 0-3-1 ATS in its last four visits to Gillette Stadium.

The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last eight playoff road games. However, they were 1-3-1 ATS in their last five road games of the regular season and they are 0-4 ATS in their last four against teams with winning SU records.

New England is 5-2 ATS in its last seven home games, but the team is 0-4 ATS in its last four playoff outings.

The under is 4-0-1 in the Ravens last five road games, 6-1-1 in their last eight against the AFC, and 4-1 in their last five playoff games. The under is 3-0-1 in the Patriots last four home games, 11-2-1 in their last 14 home playoff contests, and 5-1-1 in their last seven games overall.

What Bettors Need to Know: Packers at Cardinals
By JON KUIPERIJ

A week after closing out the regular season against each other, the Packers and Cardinals meet again Sunday in Tempe for a much more meaningful contest.

Green Bay routed the Cards 33-7 at University of Phoenix Stadium last week in a game that had no playoff implications for either team. Packers coach Mike McCarthy chose to play quarterback Aaron Rodgers and many other starters through three quarters, while Arizona coach Ken Whisenhunt played his Cards a little closer to the vest by pulling Kurt Warner in the first quarter.

Line movement

The Green Bay-Arizona matchup has drawn the biggest line movement of the four playoff games this weekend. The Cardinals were originally favored by 2.5 points, but Green Bay moved to a 1-point favorite in some spots Saturday. The original total of 48 moved to 47 almost immediately.

Injury report

Whisenhunt might be wishing he pulled some of his other star players as quickly as he yanked Kurt Warner last week. Receiver Anquan Boldin (ankle), cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie (knee) and defensive end Calais Campbell (thumb) all went down with injuries Sunday and they are all listed as questionable for this weekend. Rodgers-Cromartie and Campbell both practiced during the week, but Boldin did not and will be a game-time decision.

"I'm doing everything within my power to make sure I'm on the field Sunday," Boldin told reporters Friday. "If I'm not able to go, trust me, it won't be anything I didn't do."

The Packers also didn't escape the regular-season finale unscathed. Pro Bowl cornerback Charles Woodson, who returned an interception for a touchdown earlier in the game, strained his shoulder before halftime. He is probable for Sunday, however.

"I'll be fine," Woodson said. "I could've gone back in if I had to."

Safety Derrick Martin (ankle) and defensive tackle Johnny Jolly (foot) are the only Packers listed as questionable on the injury report.

Super Bowl hangover

History isn't on the Cardinals’ side as they begin defense of their NFC championship.

No team that lost the Super Bowl has returned to the big game since the Bills made four straight losing appearances in the early 1990s.

Arizona at least managed to make the playoffs this year, something the previous two Super Bowl losers - the Patriots and Bears - failed to do the following season.

Mr. Rodgers' neighbourhood

Neither game was significant in the standings, but Rodgers has already shredded the Arizona secondary twice this season in Tempe.

The Cal product threw for 258 yards and three touchdowns as the Packers rolled up 38 first-half points against the Cards in their final preseason game last fall. Rodgers then completed 21-of-26 passes for 235 yards and a score in last week's shortened outing.

Rodgers, who is making his playoff debut, isn't putting much stock in his previous performances against the Cards.

"It's going to be a different game for sure," he said. "They're going to play way different on defense. We're going to play different on offense."

The line is fine

Don't be fooled by the fact that Green Bay led the league in most sacks allowed.

After allowing Rodgers to be sacked 25 times in the first five games of the year, the Packers' offensive line improved its play dramatically as the season went along. In fact, Rodgers was sacked only seven times in the last six games of the season.

Protecting Rodgers will be crucial for the Packers Sunday against the Cardinals' pass rush, which recorded the sixth-most sacks in the NFL.

Trends

Both teams enter the playoffs on strong runs against the spread. The Packers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games against the NFC, 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass and 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 road games overall. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in its last four playoff games, 6-1 ATS in its last seven January contests and 13-5 in its last 18 games on grass.

The over has cashed in 22 of the Pack's past 32 games against the NFC, but six of Arizona's last seven home games have gone under the total.

Baltimore (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) at New England (10-6, 8-7-1 ATS)

The third-seeded Patriots return to the postseason after a one-year hiatus, playing host to the Ravens in a wild-card clash at Gillette Stadium.

New England was steady throughout the season, losing consecutive games only once – at Miami and at New Orleans – and putting together a late 3-0 SU surge (2-1 ATS) to clinch the AFC East title. In a meaningless regular-season finale at Houston last Sunday, the Pats led 27-13 early in the fourth quarter before allowing the Texans to rally, with New England ultimately falling 34-27 as a seven-point underdog.

The much bigger loss, though, was that of standout WR Wes Welker, who tore up his left knee and is out for the playoffs. Welker posted a league-best 123 receptions for 1,348 yards (second) despite essentially playing just 13 games.

Baltimore, which reached the AFC title game last year, was inconsistent much of this season. The Ravens got out of the gate 3-0 SU and ATS, then dropped three in a row (1-2 ATS) as part of a 3-6 SU and ATS nosedive that nearly knocked them out of playoff contention. Baltimore bounced back by winning three of its last four (2-1-1 ATS), including a 21-13 victory at Oakland laying 10 points Sunday in the regular-season finale – a must-win in order to punch its playoff ticket.

The Patriots are a superb 14-3 in the playoffs over the last decade, including three Super Bowl victories, and they fell just short of a fourth in their last postseason contest – the 17-14 loss to the Giants two years ago as an overwhelming 12-point favorite. New England missed the playoffs last year, despite going 11-5 SU and playing all but one quarter without Brady.

The Ravens rode the wild card to the AFC title game last year, beating Miami and Tennessee SU and ATS on the road before falling to eventual Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-14 as a six-point road pup. Baltimore is 6-2 ATS in its last eight playoff roadies and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight as a road pup of three or less, but it also shoulders negative ATS streaks of 2-7 in January, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-3-1 on the highway, 1-4-1 after a SU win and 0-3-1 against the AFC.

These teams just met in October, with New England hanging on for the 27-21 home win as a one-point chalk. The Patriots are 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four clashes, and the home team is 4-0 ATS in that stretch.

The Patriots sport one of the league’s top offenses, averaging 397.3 ypg – trailing only New Orleans and Dallas, respectively – and 26.7 ppg (sixth). Not surprisingly, QB Tom Brady is the catalyst, as he returned after missing all of last season with a knee injury and threw for 4,398 yards (fifth) with 28 TDs and 13 INTs as he guided the NFL’s third-best passing attack (277.2 ypg). New England also rates among the top scoring defenses, allowing just 17.8 ppg (fifth) on 320.2 ypg (11th).

The Ravens averaged 351.2 ypg (13th), including the fifth-best running attack at 137.5 ypg, led by RB Ray Rice’s 1,339 rushing yards (5.3 ypc, 7 TDs). Baltimore put up 24.4 ppg on the year (ninth), but did so in rather inconsistent fashion. The Ravens scored 30 points or more seven times and 21 points or less in their other nine starts, including five outings of 16 points or less.

Defense, not surprisingly, was Baltimore’s bread and butter, ranking third in both total yards allowed (300.5 ypg) and points allowed (16.3). The Ravens also boasted a plus-10 turnover margin, fourth-best in the NFL.

The Pats have failed to cover in their last four playoff starts and are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four January contests, but they are on positive ATS streaks of 21-7-1 following a SU loss, 9-4-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home (all as a chalk).

The under is on a bundle of runs for New England, including 5-1-1 overall, 6-2-1 in the playoffs, 11-2-1 in home playoff contests and 6-0-1 with the Pats a chalk. Baltimore, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 7-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 on the road, 4-0 in wild-card games, 4-1 in the playoffs and 6-1-1 against AFC opponents. That said, the over is 8-3-2 in the Ravens’ last 13 outings as a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and UNDER

Green Bay (11-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-6, 9-7 ATS)

In the third playoff contest of the weekend featuring opponents that also met last week, the surging Packers return to University of Phoenix Stadium to take on the defending NFC champion Cardinals.

Green Bay was 4-4 SU and ATS at the season’s midpoint, capped by a stunning 38-28 upset loss to previously winless Tampa Bay as a hefty 9½-point road favorite in its eighth game. However, the Packers bounced back big time, going a standout 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS in the second half, with the only setback coming in a wild, last-play-of-the-game 37-36 shootout loss at Pittsburgh as a 2½-point pup. Last week, despite having little to play for, the Pack played their starters much of the way and rolled to a 33-7 road win over the Cards as a three-point pup.

Arizona was content with getting the No. 4 seed as the NFC West champion, pulling QB Kurt Warner early in last Sunday’s blowout loss to Green Bay. The Cardinals got out of the gate 1-2 SU and ATS this season, then went on a 6-1 SU tear as part of a 9-3 overall SU run (8-4 ATS) to easily claim the division championship despite losing twice to NFC West foe San Francisco.

The Packers missed the playoffs last year, following a run to the NFC title game two years ago in Brett Favre’s final season with the franchise. That January, Green Bay drubbed Seattle 42-20 as a nine-point chalk in the divisional round and was a 7½-point home favorite in the NFC final against the Giants, but the Packers were upended 23-20 in overtime, and New York went on to upset New England in the Super Bowl.

Last season, the Cardinals made the playoffs for the first time since 1998 and rode the bid all the way to their first Super Bowl. Arizona topped Atlanta at home, Carolina on the road, then returned home for the AFC title game and beat Philadelphia 32-25 as 3½-point underdog. The ride ended in a riveting Super Bowl, though the Cards lost 27-23 to Pittsburgh as a 6½-point ‘dog, capping a perfect 4-0 ATS postseason.

Green Bay is 6-1 SU (5-2 ATS) in the last seven clashes with Arizona, including 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five meetings. The Packers also played in Arizona in Week 3 of this preseason and jumped out to a 38-10 halftime lead with the starters on the field en route to a 44-37 win. The SU winner has cashed in five straight regular-season meetings in this rivalry and seven of the last eight.

The Packers piled up 379.1 ypg this season (sixth), including 261.2 ypg passing on the arm of QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 4,434 yards and 30 TDs against just seven INTs. In fact, hanging on to the ball – and forcing it out of opponents’ hands – was key all year for Green Bay, which led the NFL with a whopping plus-24 turnover margin, nine ahead of second-place Philadelphia. That helped Mike McCarthy’s troops average 28.8 ppg (third). About the only negative: Rodgers was sacked an eye-popping 50 times, tied with Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger for the most in the league. Still, most of those takedowns came early in the season, as Rodgers was sacked just five times in the last six games.

Green Bay also fielded the No. 2 total defense (284.4 ypg) and No. 1 rushing defense (83.3 ypg), while ranking seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg). CB Charles Woodson tied for the league lead with nine INTs, and although he left last week’s game in Arizona with a shoulder injury, he will play today.

The Cardinals were a middling 14th in total offense in the regular season, averaging 344.4 ypg, including just 93.4 ypg on the ground (28th). That put much of the offensive burden on the veteran Warner (3,753 passing yards, 26 TDs, 14 INTs). WR Larry Fitzgerald, who was brilliant in the playoffs last year, was the chief target, with 1,092 yards and 13 TDs.

The turnover bug also plagued Arizona this year, as it finished with a minus-7 margin, 24th in the league, making it the only playoff team with a negative turnover margin. The Cardinals were middle-of-the-pack defensively, giving up 346.4 ypg (20th) and 20.3 ppg (tied for 14th).

Green Bay is 2-5 SU and ATS in its last seven postseason tilts and is 1-3-1 ATS in its last five wild-card contests, but the Packers’ ATS streaks are all positive from there, including 33-16-2 overall, 5-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 5-0-1 against the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and a sturdy 20-7-1 on the highway. In addition, the Packers were the best team in the NFL at the betting window this year.

The Cards are on a handful of positive spread-covering upswings, including 6-1 in January, 5-1 after a non-cover, 4-1 following a SU loss, 7-2 against winning teams and 5-1 coming off a double-digit home loss.

The over for Green Bay is on surges of 24-8 after a spread-cover, 22-9-1 within the NFC and 12-5 in roadies against teams with a winning home record, and the total has gone high in four of Arizona’s last five playoff starts. But the Cardinals are on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-2 at home, 5-1 versus the NFC and 4-1 against winning teams. Finally, last week’s blowout fell just short of the 42-point total, giving the under a 3-2 mark in the last five meetings between these clubs going back to 2000.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Week Wild Card Weekend

Ravens @ Patriots-- Baltimore (+2) lost 27-21 here back in Week 4, in game where Ravens had twice as much penalty yardage (85-41) as Patriots, with a roughing-passer penalty one of big calls of game. Ravens complained long and loud about it after game; now they get chance at revenge. Baltimore was 3-5 on road this year; this is also their third consecutive away game. Huge injury for New England is Welker's knee injury; their defensive coordinator was taken to hospital during Houston game last week-- not sure of his status for this. Pats are 8-0 at home this year. Five of last six New England games stayed under the total, just like eight of last ten Baltimore games did.

Packers @ Cardinals-- Green Bay won seven of last eight games, losing by a point in Pittsburgh on last play of game, when Big Ben threw for 503 yards in bizarre game; Packers crushed Arizona here LW, but once Minnesota lost, the Cardinals used passive gameplan and yanked Warner very early. Arizona won all three of its home playoff games; they were just 4-4 at home this year. Not sure about Boldin's leg injuries, which are potential problem. Six of last seven Redbird games stayed under the total. Packers have 39 TDs on their last 122 drives over the last 11 games, as Rodgers has proven to be more than an able replacement for Favre. Pack held eight of last nine foes under 82 rush yards.

Brady-Bunch
By SportsPic

The New England Patriots (10-6, 7-7-2 ATS) despite being a perfect 8-0 (5-3) in Foxboro defeating visitors by 18.3 PPG have a tough one in store with Brady nursing a rib injury along with a broken finger on his throwing hand and Welker in street clothes. Patriots haven't been involved in many Wild-Card rounds (2-1 SU/ATS) the past eleven years but come in a sparkling 14-4 (8-9-1 ATS) last eighteen in second season including a near perfect 10-1 (5-5-1 ATS) in front of the home crowd. Meanwhile, Ravens (9-7, 8-7-1 ATS) who did not qualify for the postseason until the final week of the regular season are 0-5 (1-4 ATS) all-time against the Patriots, including a 27-21 loss at New England in week-four. Road-soft Ravens (3-5, 3-4-1 ATS) are 3-1 SU & ATS in this round the past eleven seasons including a perfect 2-0 SU & ATS on the highway. Total players should note the 'Under' is 8-2-1 in Patriots last 11 playoff games at home and that Ravens enter 7-3-1 'Under' in it's last eleven second season games.