Dallas Cowboys vs. Minnesota Vikings
The Dallas Cowboys and the Minnesota Vikings will both be trying to pick up a playoff win on Sunday when they battle at The Metrodome.
Oddsmakers currently have the Vikings listed as 3-point favorites versus the Cowboys, while the game's total is sitting at 46.
Tony Romo had a pair of touchdown passes to lead the Cowboys to a 34-14 first-round playoff win over the Eagles.
The Cowboys managed to cover the 3.5-point spread at home in that Wild Card matchup, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (45).
The Vikings defeated the Giants 44-7 as an 8-point favorite in Week 17. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (48).
Brett Favre passed for 316 yards with four touchdowns for Minnesota, while Sidney Rice caught six passes for 112 yards with two touchdowns.
Team records:
Dallas: 11-5 SU, 9-7 ATS
Minnesota: 12-4 SU, 9-6-1 ATS
Dallas most recently:
When playing in January are 3-7
When playing on turf are 8-2
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
Minnesota most recently:
When playing in January are 4-6
When playing on turf are 10-0
After outgaining opponent are 8-2
When playing outside the division are 7-3
A few trends to consider:
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home
New York Jets vs. San Diego Chargers
The New York Jets and the San Diego Chargers will both be trying to pick up a playoff win on Sunday when they battle at Qualcomm Stadium.
Oddsmakers currently have the Chargers listed as 8-point favorites versus the Jets, while the game's total is sitting at 42.
Shonn Greene ran for 135 yards and a touchdown to lead the Jets to a 24-14 first-round playoff win over the Bengals.
The Jets had been pegged as the 2.5-point road underdogs in that Wild Card matchup, while the combined score went OVER the day's posted total (34.5).
The Chargers defeated Washington 23-20 as a 3-point favorite in Week 17. The combined score went OVER the posted over/under total (39.5).
Billy Volek passed for 216 yards with a touchdown and an interception for San Diego and Malcolm Floyd caught nine passes for 140 yards in the win.
Team records:
New York: 9-7 SU, 9-7 ATS
San Diego: 13-3 SU, 8-7-1 ATS
New York most recently:
When playing in January are 5-5
When playing on grass are 5-5
After outgaining opponent are 7-3
When playing outside the division are 7-3
San Diego most recently:
When playing in January are 6-4
When playing on grass are 9-1
After outgaining opponent are 9-1
When playing outside the division are 8-2
A few trends to consider:
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games on the road
NY Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Diego is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
DALLAS (12 - 5) at MINNESOTA (12 - 4)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS (10 - 7) at SAN DIEGO (13 - 3)
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS vs. MINNESOTA
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
NY JETS vs. SAN DIEGO
NY Jets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games
NY Jets are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at home against NY Jets
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against NY Jets
Dallas at Minnesota
Dallas
5-1 ATS off home division win
6-1 Under off division game
Minnesota
17-5 Under as a home favorite of 3 points or less
0-7 ATS after allowing 150 or less passing yards
NY Jets at San Diego
NY Jets
21-9 Under off 3+ SU wins
3-10 ATS off BB wins by 10 or more
San Diego
19-8 ATS off an Over
17-5 ATS off BB SU wins
Dallas at Minnesota Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone
Earlier in the season, Minnesota was making an argument they were NFC's best team. Many football experts are now saying that title belongs to Dallas. That makes for an interesting backdrop for the teams' Sunday's divisional playoff.
After a 10-1 start, the Vikings (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS) closed 2-3 SU and ATS, with each loss suffered away from home. That won't be an issue this time around, playing in the pandemonium of the Metrodome where they were 8-0 and 5-2-1 ATS, winning by 17.2 points a game.
Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) has performed an exorcism of sorts, ending December and late season failures with four wins and covers in a row and winning a playoff game, ending unlucky 13-year drought. This has been especially important for coach Wade Phillips and Tony Romo, the two individuals most associated with the recent lack of success.
When the Minnesota front office stooped to modestly embarrassing levels to get the quarterback they wanted to win the division and hopefully lead them to a Super Bowl, this is what they envisioned to this point. Yes, Brett Favre's ego could fill all 10,000 lakes in the state of Minnesota, but he has held up his part of the bargain and the Vikings as a team hope to complete the task.
The Dallas defense has been dominating holding opponents to just 54.8 yards per game rushing in their last five contests. This places the burden on the Minnesota offensive line to create holes for Adrian Peterson to nick the Cowboys defense. If Peterson has running lanes, this opens up the play-action passing game and Favre can attack Dallas both short and long.
Favre has a lot of answers to bludgeon opposing teams. Throwing deep to Sidney Rice, short and medium to TE Visanthe Shiancoe and underneath to Percy Harvin with his game-changing explosiveness. Two weeks ago the full arsenal was on display against the Giants and the Vikes are 5-1 ATS after throwing for 250 or more yards. All of this is rendered useless if DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are hanging all over No.4 in purple.
The Dallas defense has had Tim Lincecum stuff the last four weeks, pitching two shutouts and conceding a mere 31 points. Besides the perimeter pressure, the Cowboys secondary has covered receivers like TMZ on Tiger Woods and nose tackle Jay Ratliff has run roughshod on the middle of opposing offenses. Dallas has covered last five contests after permitting 90 or less yards rushing.
Minnesota has not scored less than 27 points at its indoor home, while the Cowboys have only permitted the Giants to break 21-point barrier, which seems something has to give with Betonline.com having total of 45.5. Besides limiting scoring, Dallas has to limit Peterson, keeping his runs short and not allowing him to convert on third downs. A.P. lost a league high six fumbles; the Cowboys have to attack him and the ball, since they are 6-18 ATS in road games when they allow 22 to 28 points.
Minnesota is 30-16 ATS vs. excellent ball control teams, who keep the pigskin for 32 or more minutes a game. Their massive defensive tackles helped allow just 87 yards rushing (compared to opponents average of 113) and with Felix Jones providing home run potential out of the backfield, keeping the Cowboys ground attack in check is imperative. Antoine Winfield is not 100 percent, leaving others to corral Miles Austin, who is the big play threat the Cowboys need. This is where DE Jared Allen has to conquer Flozell Adams and make Romo make poor decisions.
The Vikings are well-rested and have more of the onus on them, being at home as three-point favorites and having to fulfill preseason expectations against a hot team. Minnesota is 4-14-1 ATS after allowing less than 15 points in last game and has not covered last four contests as field goal or less favorite. Dallas isn't the safest wager either, 5-9 ATS dressed as dogs in last 14 tries and 1-4 ATS as playoff club.
Oddsmakers actually opened this game at 48 and it has been drifting downward for apparently very good reason. The Cowboys are 11-1 UNDER on the road after leading their last two games by 10 or more points at the half (average score 33.7 total points) and the Vikings are 8-1 UNDER off a home win by 10 points or more. (Average score 41 total points)
N.Y. Jets at San Diego Betting Preview
By Doug Upstone
The San Diego Chargers have won 11 straight games and no team is hotter, particularly offensively, as they scored 20 or more points in every game. More than one prognosticator has the Bolts fulfilling long believed destiny of making the Super Bowl this season. In spite of modest playoff success the last couple of years, is Norv Turner really capable of leading this team to Miami?
The New York Jets (10-7 SU & ATS) don't believe so, especially after whipping Cincinnati 24-14 last week. While some would prefer to dismiss the Jets having won last two regular season games against unmotivated foes to sneak into the postseason, the fact remains they have won and covered six of seven (only loss late 10-7 defeat to Atlanta) and been impressive in doing so. In those triumphs, the Flyboys have beat the oddsmakers by 13.4 points per game. Without question, the Jets are the only remaining team in the playoffs where the quarterback position isn't the most important factor.
New York is 9-3 ATS as road underdog and according to coach Rex Ryan, are built for January football. The Jets were the top rushing team in the NFL during the regular season and didn't miss a beat at Cincinnati rushing for 171 yards last week. On defense, Ryan doesn't look to stop a portion of a team's offense; he wants to take EVERYTHING away.
Besides have talented players with aggressive style, Ryan is blessed with having CB Darrelle Revis. He is the best pure cover corner in football and faced a who's-who of pass catchers this season, with none having more than five catches for a max of 35 yards. Why would teams bother to throw at him, instead of avoiding him like teams do Oakland's Nnamdi Asomugha, they don't have choice really.
While most teams play a version of Cover 2 defense, it's not unusual for New York to play Cover 1 or 0, to create collapse the pocket, having faith Revis can stop top receiver and others in the secondary to guard for a shorter amount of time with opposing quarterback having to unload the ball quickly. The Jets are 6-3 SU and ATS on the road and last won in San Diego in the 2005 wildcard round, 20-17 as 6.5-point underdogs.
The Chargers (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) believe they have inherit advantages over New York and will be able to expound on them. San Diego is emotional club and feeds on own momentum, that is why are 13-4 ATS after three or more consecutive wins. Last week, the Bengals defense lacked the players to make Mark Sanchez uncomfortable, as he completed most of passes rolling out or on naked bootlegs. The Chargers bring pressures off the edges, which should keep Sanchez in the pocket and make him read the entire field, instead of sections.
Phillip Rivers is tall and strong and seldom affected by a tight pocket. San Diego has a roster of tall receivers. Turner will try and use his No. 1 receiver Vincent Jackson, who will probably draw Revis. Instead of wasting time throwing deep to him, watch for Turner to run slants, hoping Jackson can use big body and have Rivers throw the ball high to him.
If that is taken away, Malcolm Floyd and Legedu Naanee are monstrous targets for New York to combat and there's that other guy, oh yea, Antonio Gates who isn't too shabby for a Chargers club that is 15-6-1 ATS vs. teams with a winning road record.
Sportbet.com opened San Diego as nine-point chalk and most of the action has been on the Jets, now receiving seven points. New York's offensive line must control an athletic Chargers front seven that is below average battling it out in the trenches, allowing 4.4 yards per carry. Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got a game ball last week for scheme and play-calling and will need similar genius against the Bolts for the Jets to improve to 8-2 ATS vs. teams with winning home record.
The Chargers are 7-3-1 ATS in last 11 tilts and are the best screen team in football, with massive linemen and diminutive Darren Sproles hiding behind them before skittering away for big gains. He could well be the biggest difference in the last playoff game of the day.
What Bettors Need To Know: Cowboys at Vikings
By DAVE CAREY
Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo led Dallas to its first postseason victory since 1996 last week. Up next? Future Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre and the Minnesota Vikings in an NFC playoff semifinal on Sunday.
Line changes
The opening line of Minnesota -3 has gone down to -2.5, while the total of 46 also has dipped slightly to 45.5 with most books.
No home like Dome
The Vikings haven’t just been good at home this season – they have been virtually unbeatable. Minnesota is a sparkling, 8-0 SU and a solid 5-2-1 ATS in its own back yard this year. And a solid 14-1 SU and 8-6-1 ATS the past two seasons.
"As far as the success we've had at home, it's due to a bunch of things,” Minnesota center John Sullivan told the Star Tribune. “Crowd, comfort level, we have a good routine, especially playing Sunday noon games.”
But the Cowboys put up a fight on the road. Dallas is 5-3 SU and a respectable 4-4 ATS when it doesn’t sleep in its own beds the night before a game.
Under pressure
Any idiot knows that a quarterback facing a strong pass rush is more likely to commit costly turnovers than one who is able to have all day to find receivers. Don’t expect either Romo or Favre to have much time Sunday.
The Vikings have sacked opposing passers a league-high 48 times and have their rush led by stud defensive end Jared Allen, who is second in the league with 14.5 quarterback takedowns.
But Dallas also knows how to collapse the pocket.
The Cowboys led the league with 59 sacks last year and posted a solid 42 this season. The team is led by outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware, who has a team high-11 sacks.
"When we look at this team, the train of thought is, 'Hey, you got any tips for playing Dallas? Yeah, block [Spencer] and [Ware] and [Ratliff] first, and go on from there,'" Favre told the Associated Press. "Easier said than done."
Variety is the spice of life
Don’t expect the Vikings to be able to shut down Dallas’ attack by simply taking away tight end Jason Witten or stacking the line of scrimmage.
In four straight wins, Dallas has outscored opponents, 99-31. During that span, its 12 touchdowns have been scored by three running backs and five receivers. Romo’s ability to distribute the ball also has been a huge factor. The face of America’s Team completed 63.1 percent of his passes this season for 4,483 yards with 26 touchdowns against nine interceptions.
"It's problematic when all of the sudden you see Patrick Crayton catching balls on third down, then you see Tashard Choice getting a first down, then you see Roy (Williams)," Romo told the Associated Press. "It's tough, and that's part of what you try to do as an offense.”
Nowhere to run
This may come as a shock, but the Vikings have a very middling running game. The unit ranked a distant 12th during the regular season, averaging just 119.1 yards per game and just 4.1 yards per carry.
With a stud back like Adrian Peterson (1,389 yards, 18 TDs), this just can’t happen, especially against a Dallas defense that will be geared to attack the team’s passing game.
“Frankly, as offensive linemen, I don’t think we’ve given [Peterson] an opportunity to do that as much as he needs to do that the last couple of weeks,” Vikings left guard Steve Hutchinson told the Star Tribune. “We got a little bit back on track.”
Injury report
Dallas running back Marion Barber is probable to start against the Vikings despite aggravating a knee injury each of the past two weeks. He last just three carries last week and Felix Jones was a beast in his place, rushing for 148 yards and a score on 16 carries.
Other Notes
Dallas is 3-0 SU and ATS in the past three meetings against Minnesota.
Trends
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its past five road playoff games.
The under is 8-2 in Dallas past 10 games overall and is 6-2 in the past eight Minnesota games as well.
Minnesota is just 2-3 ATS in its past five games overall.
What Bettors Need To Know: Jets at Chargers
By RICKY DIMON
Two of the hottest teams in football will be going head-to-head when the Jets visit the Chargers Sunday afternoon. Combined, they have won an unbelievable 17 of their last 18 games.
New York (10-7, 10-7 ATS) won its last two games to just barely snag a playoff spot, then went into Cincinnati and handled the Bengals 24-14 last weekend. The Jets have won six of their last seven.
San Diego (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS) started the season 2-3 but is currently riding an incredible 11-game winning streak.
Line movement
The Chargers opened as 8 or 9-point favorites at most betting sites, but the line has since descended to just a touchdown. The total opened at 42.5 and rarely wavered outside of one-point range between 41.5 and 42.5.
Weather or not
Sunny skies and calm wins should be the order of the day for this one. Weather will not be a factor.
Injury report
If the Jets are looking good on the field, the Chargers are looking even better. Same goes for the injury report.
Linebacker Bart Scott was New York’s only player who did not fully participate in Friday’s practice. Despite an ankle injury, Scott is still listed as probable. Quarterback Mark Sanchez, RB Thomas Jones, LB David Harris and DE Shaun Ellis are all good to go.
San Diego is not only the hottest team in football, but also arguably the healthiest. The Chargers list just one player—punter Mike Scifres—on their injury report. Scifres (groin) was a full participant in Friday’s practice and he has been upgraded from questionable to probable.
Charged up
San Diego is eager to reverse what has been a disappointing playoff trend. After winning 10 straight games to earn a first-round bye in 2006, the Chargers lost their playoff opener at home to New England.
One season later they were riding an eight-game winning streak before losing to the Patriots in the AFC Championship. The Chargers managed to advance one round in last year’s playoffs, but after taking out Indianapolis, their five-game winning streak was halted by Pittsburgh.
If Shawne Merriman has anything to do with it, San Diego is not about to let the postseason pressure get in the way of yet another hot streak.
“We've been there before,” Merriman told reporters. “We've been the popular pick to win the Super Bowl before and haven't. Our whole mentality this year is completely different, in not looking too far ahead down the road. That's been the big key this year altogether, is not looking too far down the road.”
Merriman has the tough task of leading the Charger defense against a New York rushing attack that was No. 1 in the NFL in rushing, averaging 172.2 yards in 16 regular-season games.
A Rivers runs through it
Philip Rivers (317-for-486, 4254 yards, 28 TDs, nine INTs) is enjoying a second straight outstanding season, shredding defenses left and right. In his last eight games, he has thrown for 14 touchdowns and a mere three interceptions. The Chargers finished the regular season at No. 5 in the NFL in passing offense.
But something will have to give when San Diego and New York go head-to-head.
The Jets were the No. 1 overall defense this season (252.3 ypg) and tops against the pass as well (153.7 ypg). That is thanks in large to cornerback Darrelle Revis, who finished second in NFL Defensive Player of the Year voting and will go up against Chargers WR Vincent Jackson (68 rec., 1167 yds, nine TDs).
“I think they're the best defense we're going to play,” running back LaDanian Tomlinson told the media.
Trending topics
The Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games and they are 6-1 ATS in their last seven overall. They are 7-2 ATS in their last nine outings as underdogs and they are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 as road underdogs.
The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against teams with winning SU records and they are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last five playoff showdowns.
New York is 4-1 ATS in the last five head-to-head meetings between the two teams, but they have faced each other just once since 2005.
The over is 6-1-1 in the Jets’ last eight games against AFC competition. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers’last four against the AFC, 4-0 in their last five home outings, and 5-1 in their last six games overall.
San Diego (10-5-1 O/U) has been a strong over play this season, but the same cannot be said for New York (7-8-1 O/U).
Dallas (12-5, 10-7 ATS) at Minnesota (12-4, 9-6-1 ATS)
The No. 2 seed Vikings, fresh off a bye week and looking to ride aging QB Brett Favre to the Super Bowl, play host to the surging Cowboys at the Metrodome.
After finishing the regular season on a 3-0 SU and ATS surge that included back-to-back shutouts, Dallas ripped Philadelphia 34-14 in the wild-card round last week as a 3½-point home chalk – routing the Eagles for the second straight week at Cowboys Stadium. In winning their first playoff game in 13 years, the Pokes won the turnover battle 4-1, recovering three fumbles and getting an INT, and they outgained Philly 426-340, including gashing the Eagles D for 198 rushing yards.
RB Felix Jones had 16 carries for a whopping 148 yards, including a 73-yard TD jaunt, as he filled in for Marion Barber (knee), who had just three carries. Barber is probable to go today.
Minnesota went on a 10-1 SU tear to open the 2009 campaign (7-3-1 ATS), with Favre’s revived arm pacing the squad to 27 points or more in all 10 victories, including seven games of 30 points or more. The Vikes hit the skids in December, going on a 1-3 SU and ATS slide, including back-to-back upset road losses of 26-7 at Carolina and 36-30 at Chicago in overtime as heavy nine-point favorites in both games. However, in the regular-season finale two weeks ago, Minnesota pounded the Giants 44-7 at home, again laying nine points, to claim the No. 2 seed.
Minnesota won the NFC North for the second straight year, after a three-year playoff hiatus. However, last year’s postseason stay was a short one, as the Vikes tumbled 26-14 to Philadelphia as a three-point home underdog in the wild-card round. Dallas, meanwhile, got a huge monkey off its back last week, halting an 0-6 SU and 1-5 ATS postseason skid in notching its first playoff victory since the 1996 season.
These teams have been regular preseason opponents, meeting each of the past four summers. In games that count, Minnesota is on a 5-1 SU and ATS tear in this rivalry, though Dallas won the most recent clash 24-14 as a 9½-point home favorite in October 2007. The chalk has won and covered the last seven meetings, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five battles, and the Vikes have cashed in the last four clashes at their home dome.
In addition, Minny is on a 7-0 SU and ATS surge when installed as a pick or a favorite against Dallas. However, Favre has never defeated the Cowboys in his career.
The Cowboys have the league’s second-best total offense, racking up 399.4 ypg in regular-season play, behind only the Saints (403.8 ypg), but that has translated into just 22.6 ppg (14th). QB Tony Romo passed for 4,483 yards (third) with 26 TDs and just nine INTs in leading a passing attack that netted 267.9 ypg (sixth). Dallas was seventh in rushing (131.5 ypg), paced by Barber (932 yards, 7 TDs, 4.4 ypc).
Thanks to ending the regular season with consecutive shutouts, Dallas ranked second to the Jets in scoring defense (15.6 ppg) and was ninth in total defense (315.9 ypg). The Cowboys were fifth against the rush (90.5 ypg), and All-Pro linebacker DeMarcus Ware piled up a team-best 11 sacks. Including last week’s game, the Cowboys have held nine of their last 11 opponents to 17 points or fewer, going 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in those nine contests.
Favre, who turned 40 early in the season, paced the NFL’s fifth-best total offense (379.6 ypg), with the passing game netting 259.8 ypg (eighth). Favre threw for 4,202 yards (ninth) and had 33 TDs – tied for second with Peyton Manning – against just seven INTs, which tied for the second-lowest total among starting quarterbacks. WR Sidney Rice (84 catches, 1,316 yards, 8 TDs) was the main threat for a team that averaged 29.4 ppg, second only to New Orleans’ 31.9 ppg.
RB Adrian Peterson’s numbers were down this year, though he still gained All-Pro honors by finishing with 1,389 yards rushing and 18 TDs, along with 43 catches for another 436 yards.
Defensively, Minnesota allowed 305.5 ypg (sixth) and 19.5 ppg (10th), and ranked second against the run (87.1 ypg). The Vikings really made their mark by hounding quarterbacks, as they racked up a league-best 48 sacks, helping them post a plus-6 turnover margin (ninth). Jared Allen had 14½ sacks, the second-best total in the league.
The Cowboys have cashed in four straight overall, all within the NFC, and they are on further ATS rolls of 4-1 after a SU win, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 5-2 against winning teams. However, Dallas remains in ATS ruts of 2-5 in the postseason, 2-5 as a pup and 4-9 in January. Furthermore, the Pokes are 2-10 SU and 3-9 ATS in their last dozen road playoff games, including 1-6 SU and ATS following a postseason victory.
The Vikings went a perfect 8-0 SU (5-2-1 ATS) at home this season, including 5-0 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five at the Metrodome, with all five victories coming by at least 17 points. That said, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-3-1 after a spread-cover and 7-15-1 following a SU win.
Minnesota is on a bundle of “under” sprees, including 6-2 overall, 4-0-1 in the playoffs, 4-1 at home (all as a chalk), 6-2-1 in January, 6-2 laying points, 35-15-1 after a spread-cover and 34-16-1 following a SU win. Likewise, the under for Dallas is on surges of 8-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 4-1 in January, 6-2 against NFC foes and 5-2 with the Cowboys coming off a SU win. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and UNDER
N.Y. Jets (10-7 SU and ATS) at San Diego (13-3, 8-7-1 ATS)
The upstart Jets and rookie QB Mark Sanchez make the cross-country trek to Qualcomm Stadium to take on the red-hot Chargers.
New York dumped the Bengals two weeks in a row, rolling to a 37-0 home win as a 9½-point chalk to clinch a playoff berth in Week 17, then went to Cincinnati last week and posted a 24-14 victory over the AFC North champs in the wild-card round as a 2½-point road pup. Sanchez, who threw 20 INTs in the regular-season, was mistake-free for the third straight game last week, going an efficient 12 of 15 for 182 yards and a TD, and RB Shonn Greene racked up 135 yards and a TD on just 21 carries.
Jets leading rusher Thomas Jones, who had 1,402 regular-season yards, was limited by a knee injury, though he also had a TD run. The one negative last week: New York allowed Bengals RB Cedric Benson to pile up 169 rushing yards, including a 47-yard TD run.
San Diego carries an NFL-best 11-game winning streak (7-3-1 ATS) into the postseason, a run that came after a shaky 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS start to the season. In their regular-season finale two weeks ago, the Bolts went with reserves most of the way, but they put up 10 fourth-quarter points to pull out a 23-20 victory and get the push as a three-point home chalk. San Diego has scored 20 points or more in every game during their streak, with six games of 30 or more points, including two in the 40s.
The Jets are in the playoffs for the first time since the 2006 season, when they bowed out to New England 37-16 in the wild-card round catching 9½ points on the road. The Chargers, the AFC’s No. 2 seed, are in the playoffs for the fourth straight year as the AFC West champion. Last year, they knocked out Indianapolis 23-17 in overtime as a 1½-point home ‘dog in the wild-card round, then fell short at Pittsburgh 35-24 getting 6½ points in the divisional round.
These teams last met in September 2008 on a Monday night, with San Diego rumbling to a 48-29 rout as a nine-point home favorite, which ended a four-game ATS run (3-1 SU) by New York in this rivalry, dating to the 2002 season. In fact, in the wild-card round after the 2004 season, the Jets went to San Diego upended the Chargers 20-17 in overtime as a seven-point road pup. The SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes, and six of those games were decided by double digits.
New York rated a below-average 20th in total offense this year (321 ypg), and was slightly better at No. 17 in scoring (21.8 ppg). However, the Jets field the NFL’s most potent running attack, piling up 172.2 ypg. Jones trailed only the Titans’ Chris Johnson and the Rams’ Steven Jackson in rushing yards, and he also had 14 regular-season rushing touchdowns. Sanchez had 12 TDs passes, but his 20 INTs were second-most in the league, and he also fumbled 10 times, losing three. In his last three games, Sanchez has just the one TD pass thrown last week, but he hasn’t thrown a pick.
The Jets ranked No. 1 in scoring defense (14.8 ppg) and total defense (252.3 ypg), and they had the No. 1 pass defense (153.7 ypg) thanks largely to shutdown cornerback Darrelle Revis (6 INTs). But due to Sanchez’s rookie penchant for INTs, New York posted only a plus-1 turnover margin (17th). However, the Jets won the turnover battle last week, 2-1.
San Diego put up 360.1 ypg (10th) and 28.4 ppg (fourth) in the regular season, mostly on the arm of Philip Rivers, who threw for 4,254 yards (eighth) and 28 TDs (tied for sixth), with just nine INTs. WR Vincent Jackson (68 catches, 1,167 yards, 9 TDs, 17.2 ypc) was the top gainer, though TE Antonio Gates (79 catches, 1,157 yards, 8 TDs, 14.6 ypc) was close behind.
The vaunted ground attack of RBs LaDainian Tomlinson (730 yards, 12 TDs) and Darren Sproles (343 yards) never really materialized this year as the Chargers finished a lowly 31st in the league in rushing (88.9 ypg). They were outrushed in each of their last six games of the season.
The Bolts’ defense finished a middling 16th in allowing 327 ypg, but those yards netted just 20 ppg for the opponents (11th), much of that due to San Diego’s plus-8 turnover margin, which was the sixth-best mark in the league.
The Jets are on a 6-1 SU and ATS surge, and the SU winner has covered in all 17 of their games this year and 19 straight overall. New York is on further ATS rolls of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 against the AFC, 5-1 in January, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 7-2 as an underdog and 9-3 as a road ‘dog. The Jets are also on a 10-3 ATS playoff streak against non-division foes.
The Chargers also sport several positive ATS trends, including 6-2-1 overall, 4-0 after a non-cover, 4-1 in the postseason, 4-1 against winning teams, 4-1-1 in January and 6-2-1 following a SU win. In addition, coach Norv Turner is 6-1 ATS in the playoffs, including 3-0 SU and ATS at home.
The over for New York is on runs of 5-0 in January, 3-0-1 against winning teams, 6-1-1 within the AFC and 5-2-2 with the Jets a road pup. Likewise, the over for San Diego is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk) and 4-0 against the AFC, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.
However, the under has hit in San Diego’s last four home playoff affairs and is on additional runs for the Chargers of 5-2 overall in the postseason and 7-3 in January.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO
Divisional Playoff Weekend
Cowboys @ Vikings-- Dallas used win over 13-0 Saints in Superdome to shed December demons, then they beat Eagles twice in row- they've held their last four opponents to 10 for 46 on 3rd down conversions, with 15 sacks in those four wins. Last team to run for 100+ yards vs Pokes was Thanksgiving Day vs Raiders (124); only other team all year to run for more than 124 against Dallas was Tampa Bay (174) Opening Day. Vikings are 8-0 at home, with last five home wins all by 17+ points. NFC East road underdogs are 3-4 vs spread in non-divisional games. NFC North home favorites are 6-8 out of division.
Jets @ Chargers-- Two road teams today playing best defense of anyone still in playoffs; Jets held last seven opponents to 15 or less points- they're 1-6 if they allow more than 15 points. Chargers won last 11 games- they didn't score less than 20 points all season. San Diego's last loss was October 19, when they gave up KR and PR for TDs in 34-23 loss to Denver. Interesting to see if the Chargers challenge Revis down field with taller WR Jackson. This is first time since October 25 Jets are playing on grass; they're 4-2 vs spread as underdog this season. Partly cloudy skies, 63 degrees expected at kickoff. Historically this has been the round for favorites; yesterday was no exception.
Tips and Trends
Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings
Cowboys: Dallas is feeling pretty good about themselves after winning their 1st playoff game in 13 years last week. Dallas has won 4 straight games, with their offense playing a huge role in their success. Dallas has outscored their opponents 99-31 during their current winning streak. QB Tony Romo is doing a great job of getting the Cowboys in the end zone, as they've scored 12 TDs in their past 4 games. Gaining yards offensively hasn't been an issue this year, as the Cowboys finished the regular season 2nd in the NFL with 399 YPG. Romo threw for nearly 4,500 YDS this season with 27 TDs against 9 INTs. WR Miles Austin had a career year with 1,320 receiving YDS with 11 TDs this season. Dallas finished the season at 11-5 SU and 9-7 ATS. Dallas was 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS away from home this season. The Cowboys were 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year.
Cowboys are 1-4 ATS last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games overall.
Key Injuries - RB Marion Barber (knee) is probable.
T Marc Colombo (leg) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)
Vikings (-3, O/U 45.5): The Vikings finished the season at 12-4 SU, earning a bye thru the 1st round of the playoffs. That bye enabled this team to rest and get healthy, a welcome sight to QB Brett Favre and others. The rest was also notable for RB Adrian Peterson, as he was able to rest some nagging injuries. Peterson rushed for nearly 1,400 YDS this year, but hasn't had a 100 yard rushing game since Thanksgiving. The Vikings are 8-0 SU and 5-2-1 ATS this season at home. Minnesota has won each of their past 5 home games by at least 17 PTS. The Vikings are 4-5 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. Defensively, the Vikings finished 10th in the NFL allowing 19.5 PPG. They were 6th in the NFL in yards allowed, only allowing 305 YPG this year. The Vikings only allowed 87 rushing YPG, the 2nd best in the league. This Vikings defense is also capable of making the big play, as they led the NFL with 48 sacks this season.
Vikings are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Under is 17-4 last 21 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Key Injuries - NT Pat Williams (elbow) is questionable.
TE Visanthe Shiancoe (quadricep) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
New York Jets at San Diego Chargers
Jets: New York is looking for the same result they had the last time they visited San Diego in the playoffs. In 2005, the Jets beat San Diego in overtime in a complete stunner of a game. The Jets have won 6 of their past 7 games SU entering today. Including the playoffs, the Jets are 10-7 both SU and ATS this year. The Jets have had the same end result both SU and ATS in every game they've played this season. The Jets are 6-3 both SU and ATS on the road this year. New York was also 4-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Jets win games with defense, as they have the overall #1 defense in the NFL. New York has held 7 straight opponents to 15 PTS or fewer. New York is 1st in the league in both PPG allowed and YPG allowed (14.8 and 252) respectively. Offensively, the Jets have the best rushing attack in the NFL at 173 YPG. This rushing attack led by RB Thomas Jones takes pressure off of rookie QB Mark Sanchez.
Jets are 9-3 ATS last 12 games as a road underdog.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games in January.
Key Injuries - RB Thomas Jones (knee) is probable.
LB Bart Scott (ankle) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17
Chargers (-7, O/U 42): San Diego enters the playoffs as the hottest team in the NFL, as they have won 11 consecutive games ATS. The Chargers finished the regular season at 13-3 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. San Diego is 6-2 SU and 3-4-1 ATS at home this year. The Chargers were 4-3-1 as a single digit favorite this season. QB Philip Rivers has had an NFL MVP caliber type season, leading his offense to 28.4 PPG for the year. Rivers threw for more than 4,250 YDS with a completion percentage of 65%. Rivers also had 28 TDs to only 9 INTs this season with the 3rd best QB Rating in the NFL. Despite a prolific passing game, the Chargers only averaged 3.3 yards per rush this year which was the worst in the NFL. RB Ladainian Tomlinson was held under 1,000 rushing YDS this season for the 1st time in his career. Despite allowing teams to rush for nearly 120 YPG against them, the Chargers have had success in the past stopping the Jets running game.
Chargers are 4-1 ATS last 5 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - DE Jacques Cesaire (elbow) is probable.
P Mike Scifres (groin) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20 (UNDER - Total of the Day)