NFL Tech Trends - Week 17
By Bruce Marshall
OAKLAND at KANSAS CITY...Odd series visitor dynamics were finally altered in earlier 23-20 Raiders win, which stopped Chiefs’ 9-game cover streak at Oakland. Now action switches to Arrowhead, where Raiders are 6-0-1 vs. line in last seven visits. Last four meetings at KC also "under." Raiders-back-and-forth with covers on road TY, by that pattern due for a "W" here. Tech edge-"Under" and Raiders, based on series trends.
MIAMI at NEW ENGLAND...Curiously, Miami has played very well at Foxborough lately, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five visits in a visitor-oriented series (road team 8-2-1 vs. number last 11 meetings). Of course, Dolphins have continued their solid road play this season, now 6-1 SU and vs. number, and 17-5 vs. spread last 22 away from home under Sparano. Belichick "over" 8 of last 9 in 2010. Tech edge-Dolphins and "over," based on team and series trends.
TENNESSEE at INDIANAPOLIS...Titans broke 3-game spread losing streak vs. Indy with the backdoor of all covers Dec. 9 at Nashville. That one also went "over" after 8 of previous 9 had gone "under" in this AFC South series. Titans have also dropped last four vs. spread on road TY after covering first three as visitor in 2010. Indy needed a last-minute onside kick return TD vs. Jags to break recent 3-game spread losing streak and give Colts their first cover at Lucas Oil Stadium in last four tries in 2010. Indy "under" 4-3 at home this season. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON...Houston has won SU in its last four closing-week games, all victories by 7 or more. Texans also 6-2 all-time at home vs. number against Jags, although Kubiak just 2-9 vs. number last 11 TY. Jags, who won first meeting on deflected Hail Mary, now "over" 5 of last 7 vs. Houston (first meeting also "over"), and both of these teams "over" 10-5 this season. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Texans, based on "totals" and series trends.
PITTSBURGH at CLEVELAND...Brownies have covered last two meetings vs. Steelers in Cleveland, although Mangini just 1-6 vs. spread last 7 on board in 2010. Steel just 2-3 vs. line as visitor since Big Ben returned in October, and Tomlin also "under" 5-1 last 6 TY after Dec. 23 win over Panthers. Brownies also "under" last four TY. Tech edge-"Under," based on "totals" trends.
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE...Bengals have given Ravens fits lately, winning and covering last three meetings. Five of last six in series "under" as well. John Harbaugh just 6-7 vs. spread last 13 as host, although Cincy just 2-5 vs. line away TY, and 3-8 vs. number last 11 as visitor. Tech edge-"Under" and Ravens, based on "totals" and Bengals’ road trends.
MINNESOTA at DETROIT...Lions now 12-3 vs. line in 2010 and 6-1 vs. points at Ford Field, although Detroit lost and failed to cover at Minnesota back on Sept. 26. Meanwhile, Lions also "over" 7-1-1 last 9 at home since late ‘09. Tech edge-Lions and slight to "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
NY GIANTS at WASHINGTON...G-Men 5-0 SU, 4-0-1 vs. line last 5 in series, and 7-1-1 vs. spread last 9 vs. Skins. NY has also won and covered last four visits to FedEx Field. Tech edge-Giants, based on series and team trends.
CHICAGO at GREEN BAY...Green Bay has won its reg.-season finale seven years running, with 6-1 spread mark in those games. Pack had won and covered last 4 in series prior to bitter 20-17 loss at Chicago back on Sept. 27. Note last five "under" in series. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Pack, based on "totals" and team trends.
DALLAS at PHILADELPHIA...Birds broke 3-game losing streak to Cowboys in win at Dallas Dec. 12, but Cowboys have still covered last four meetings. Note Dallas now "over" last 12 this season after Cards game and Andy Reid "over" 10-5 in 2010, and Birds 22-11 "over" last 33 on board. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at NY JETS...Jets have only covered 1 of last 4 at home TY, while Bills on 6-3-1 spread run. Bills have also covered 5 of last 6 on road TY, and have surprisingly covered last 4 as series visitor. Road team 8-1 vs. line last 9 in series. Jets also "over" 11-4 TY and 15-5 last 20 since late ‘09. Tech edge-Bills and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
CAROLINA at ATLANTA...Panthers have lost and failed to cover their last two at Georgia Dome, and Carolina just 2-5 vs. line on road TY. Falcons 10-4 vs. line at home since ‘09. John Fox swan song? Tech edge-Falcons, based on team trends.
TAMPA BAY at NEW ORLEANS...Bucs very inside-out this season, poor vs. line at home but 6-1 vs. spread away, now 8-1 last 9 vs. number on road and 10-2 last 12 away since mid ‘09. Saints have covered 4 of last 5 in series, however. Raheem Morris "under" last 3 on road TY. Tech edge-Bucs, based on recent road mark.
ST. LOUIS at SEATTLE...NFC West on line! Rams broke 4-game lose and cover streak vs. Seahawks with 20-3 win back on Oct. 3. Rams 10-4 vs. line last 14 TY and 5-2 vs. spread away in 2010. Seahawks' former strong home trends fading, now 1-3 vs. line last 4 at Qwest Field. Tech edge-Rams, based on team trends.
ARIZONA at SAN FRANCISCO...49ers have won and covered last three series meetings, but SF just 2-4 vs. spread at Stick TY. Meanwhile, Cards only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on road TY. Tech edge-49ers, based on team trends.
SAN DIEGO at DENVER...Six of last nine "over" in series. Broncos "over" 10-5 TY and 16-5 last 21 dating to late ‘09. Denver 4-8 vs. line last 12 at Invesco Field since mid ‘09. Norv 6-2 SU and vs. line last 8 TY, and 24-11-1 vs. number from Week 8 of reg. season since ‘07. Tech edge-Norv and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
Week 17 Technical Angles
By: Michael Alexander
I have said it many times in the past that successful handicapping is more than just looking at numbers and tracking trends. A truely successful handicapper is one that not only looks at the numbers but takes into account any and all other variables that pertain to the game, whether they be matchup angles, injuries, weather, rest, etc. However, that is not to discredit the NFL Picks technical angles on any given Sunday. In fact, blindly using technical angles for your NFL Picks over the last five weeks has yielded some excellent results. Going into this Week 17 the technical angle NFL Picks are 10-5 the L5 weeks. So, without any further scolding as to why handicapping NFL picks is more than just numbers, let's take a look at Week 17 technical angle NFL Picks:
Chicago vs Green Bay
CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
PLAY ON GREEN BAY
Jacksonville vs Houston
HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
PLAY ON HOUSTON
Miami vs New England
MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
PLAY ON MIAMI
NFL Betting: Week 17 Betting Preview - Playoff Races
It's the final week of the NFL regular season, and sadly, Jim Sorgi will not be playing. Peyton Manning's former backup with the Indianapolis Colts is now property of the New York Giants and on injured reserve, but we'll always remember Sorgi as the guy who got to play for Indianapolis in Week 17 while Manning and the first unit rested up for the playoffs. The Colts won't have that luxury this year – neither will the Giants, for that matter, which means handicappers can expect some market stability with their football betting lines.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans
The Saints (11-4 SU, 7-8 ATS) clinched a playoff spot Monday night by upsetting the Atlanta Falcons (–2) at the Georgia Dome, but now is not the time for the defending champions to take it easy. New Orleans can still overtake 12-3 Atlanta for the NFC South title, although it's highly unlikely the Falcons will lose at home to the 2-13 Carolina Panthers. The Buccaneers (9-6 SU, 9-5-1 ATS) need a win here to earn a Wild Card berth, plus losses by the Giants and the Green Bay Packers. New Orleans crushed Tampa Bay 31-6 in Week 6 as 5.5-point road chalk.
N.Y. Giants at Washington
The NFC East is always about drama. The Giants (9-6 SU, 7-8 ATS) are trying to salvage a Wild Card after losing their last two games SU and ATS, starting with that befuddling 38-31 comeback by the Philadelphia Eagles (+3 away). New York needs the Packers to lose on Sunday to get into the playoffs – the Tampa Bay result doesn't matter. Washington is out of the picture at 6-9 SU and 7-6-2 ATS, but the ‘Skins have covered back-to-back games with Rex Grossman as the starter in place of Donovan McNabb. Our NFL odds at press time had the Giants laying four points in Washington. Mostly clear skies are in the forecast with temperatures around 40 degrees.
Chicago at Green Bay
The Packers (9-6 SU and ATS) have first dibs on the No. 6 seed in the NFC after beating the Giants 45-17 last week as 3-point home faves. In other words, win and they're in. The Pack will remain at Lambeau Field to take on the NFC North rival Chicago Bears (11-4 SU, 8-6-1 ATS), who have clinched the division title and the No. 2 seed in the conference, therefore giving them the bye in the first round. The weather should be suitably cold in Green Bay – near 15 degrees – but skies will be mostly sunny. The Bears (+3) won this matchup 20-17 back in Week 3 at Soldier Field.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
A late-season surge has put the Colts (9-6 SU, 8-6-1 ATS) in position to win the AFC South title, but the 8-7 Jacksonville Jaguars can spoil the party with a win and an Indianapolis loss. The Titans (6-9 SU, 7-8 ATS) are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS since Vince Young was taken out of the starting QB role, but they did get the matador cover in a 30-28 loss to the Colts (–3 away) in Week 15. The Titans may have run out of gas, though, after last week's 34-14 beating at the hands of the Kansas City Chiefs (–4 at home). The Colts are 10-point favorites as we go to press with even juice.
St. Louis at Seattle
Whichever team wins this game will claim the NFC West crown and go on to the playoffs. The Seahawks (6-9 SU and ATS) went into their Week 16 game against Tampa Bay knowing that it didn't matter if they won or lost – which gave them the opportunity to pull a Sorgi and insert Charlie Whitehurst in place of Matt Hasselbeck (strained left hip) during the first quarter. This is an injury that has been bugging Hasselbeck all year; it's uncertain who will start for Seattle this week, but that could just be a case of gamesmanship on coach Pete Carroll's part. The Rams (7-8 SU, 10-5 ATS) are on the verge of the playoffs thanks in part to rookie QB Sam Bradford (18 TDs, 14 INTs), but more to an improved defense in their second year under coach Steve Spagnuolo. St. Louis dropped Seattle 20-3 as a 1.5-point home dog in Week 4.
Week 17 Technical Angles
By: Michael Alexander
I have said it many times in the past that successful handicapping is more than just looking at numbers and tracking trends. A truely successful handicapper is one that not only looks at the numbers but takes into account any and all other variables that pertain to the game, whether they be matchup angles, injuries, weather, rest, etc. However, that is not to discredit the NFL Picks technical angles on any given Sunday. In fact, blindly using technical angles for your NFL Picks over the last five weeks has yielded some excellent results. Going into this Week 17 the technical angle NFL Picks are 10-5 the L5 weeks. So, without any further scolding as to why handicapping NFL picks is more than just numbers, let's take a look at Week 17 technical angle NFL Picks:
Chicago vs Green Bay
CHICAGO is 2-16 ATS (-15.6 Units) after scoring 25 points or more in 2 straight games since 1992.
PLAY ON GREEN BAY
Jacksonville vs Houston
HOUSTON is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in home games revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points since 1992.
PLAY ON HOUSTON
Miami vs New England
MIAMI is 8-0 ATS (+8 Units) in road games vs. good passing teams with a completion pct. of 61% or better. over the last 3 seasons.
PLAY ON MIAMI
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 17
By Shawn Hartlen
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-8)
Why Buccaneers cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in New Orleans. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Saints cover: With the No. 1 seed in the NFC still up for grabs, New Orleans will trot out their regulars against a banged-up Buccaneers squad that they throttled 31-6 in Week 6.
Total (48): Under is 4-0 in their last four meetings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
Why Bengals cover: They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Ravens cover: Joe Flacco has been almost flawless at home this year. In seven games, he has thrown 13 touchdowns and only one interception.
Total (43): Under is 5-1 in their last six meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Baltimore.
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-14.5)
Why Panthers cover: They totaled 212 yards on the ground in their last meeting, the most allowed by Atlanta this season.
Why Falcons cover: The Panthers are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Atlanta. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They still haven’t clinched the top seed in the NFC and could fall as far as No. 5 if they lose.
Total (41): Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings and 5-1 in their last six meetings in Atlanta.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Why Steelers cover: They're 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 meetings. Peyton Hillis has been the Browns' main offensive weapon but he has slowed down considerably in recent weeks and no goes up against the league's top run defense.
Why Browns cover: They knocked their divisional rivals out of the playoff hunt with a big upset in Week 17 last season and will be fired up to do prevent them from capturing the AFC North title this year.
Total (37): Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
Why Vikings cover: They're 7-2-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Detroit.
Why Lions cover: They are 6-4 ATS in games that quarterback Shaun Hill plays and average 24.5 points per game in his starts.
Total (42): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-1 in their last five meetings in Detroit.
Oakland Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
Why Raiders cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Kansas City. The road team is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Chiefs cover: Coach Todd Haley said he doesn't plan to rest any of his starters even though Sunday's game is meaningless.
Total (43.5): Under is 9-2 in the last 11 meetings and 4-1 in their last five meetings in Kansas City.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-1)
Why Bills cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in New York. The underdog is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Jets cover: Despite having clinched a playoff berth, head coach Rex Ryan is leaning towards starting Mark Sanchez Sunday in order to keep his momentum going into the playoffs.
Total (39.5): Under is 6-3 in their last nine meetings in Buffalo.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-3.5)
Why Dolphins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New England. The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Patriots cover: Historically, Bill Belichick doesn't rest his starters even when they have the top seed in the AFC locked up. Expect New England's big guns to be on the field Sunday - at least until they have a big enough lead to take a seat on the bench.
Total (43.5): Over is 8-1 in New England's last nine games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (+2.5)
Why Jaguars cover: Houston has the worst secondary in the league, allowing opposing quarterbacks to post a whopping 100.7 quarterback rating against them, and are the only team in the NFL to allow a QB rating over 100.
Why Texans cover: Jacksonville will be without top offensive weapons Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard. Trent Edwards and Rashad Jennings will start in their place.
Total (49.5): Over is 5-2 in their last seven meetings.
San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (+3.5)
Why Chargers cover: They're 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and 3-0-3 ATS in their last six meetings in Denver. The Broncos' already porous defense could be without star cornerback Champ Bailey, who suffered a heel injury last week.
Why Broncos cover: In his two starts, Tim Tebow has accounted for 551 yards of total offense, four touchdowns and only one turnover. He will continue to make his case to be Denver's starting quarterback in 2011.
Total (47.5): Over is 14-6 in Denver's last 20 games and 4-2 in San Diego's last six games on the road.
Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5)
Why Cardinals cover: They are 2-1 ATS and straight up since John Skelton took over as the starting quarterback and are averaging 27.3 points per game in his starts.
Why 49ers cover: The Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and just fired head coach Mike Singletary, leaving interim coach Jim Tomsula to lead the team in the finale of a disappointing season.
Total (38): Under is 4-1 in their last five meetings in San Francisco.
New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+4)
Why Giants cover: They're 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Washington. The favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The road team is 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. New York is still alive in the playoff race, but needs to win and Green Bay to lose to Chicago.
Why Redskins cover: They are 2-0 ATS and averaging 25 points per game since Rex Grossman took over as the starting quarterback from Donovan McNabb. The Giants have multiple injuries, including receiver Hakeem Nicks and center Shaun O'Hara.
Total (44): Over is 7-2 in their last nine meetings in Washington.
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Why Bears cover: They beat Green Bay 20-17 in Week 3 as 3-point underdogs and will be pumped to clinch a first-round bye with a win while possibly knocking the Packers out of the playoff picture.
Why Packers cover: The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. Aaron Rodgers showed no signs of his concussion last week, throwing for 404 yards and four touchdowns against the Giants' sixth-ranked defense.
Total (41.5): Under is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-10)
Why Titans cover: Kerry Collins torched the Colts 20th-ranked defense for 244 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions when Tennessee covered as a 3-point underdog in Week 14.
Why Colts cover: The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Indianapolis. The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (47.5): Under is 9-2 in their last 11 meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-12)
Why Cowboys cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Their defense picked off Michael Vick twice and held him to only 16 yards rushing as Dallas covered in Week 14 as a 3.5-point underdogs. Vick is reportedly expected to sit out Week 17.
Why Eagles cover: Cowboys third-string quarterback Stephen McGee might get his first NFL start with Jon Kitna battling an oblique injury and could struggle against the NFC's sixth best defense. Philadelphia can secure the No. 2 seed in the AFC with a win.
Total (48): Over is 4-1 in their last five meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks (+2.5)
Why Rams cover: With Matt Hasselbeck banged up and unlikely to play and their running game non-existent, Seattle could have trouble moving the ball on offense. The Seahawks have also lost three straight games heading into Week 17.
Why Seahawks cover: The Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Seattle. The Seahawks can steal the NFC West title with a win at home.
Total (41.5): Under is 4-2 in their last six meetings in Seattle.
Week 17 Late Kickoffs
December 30, 2010
By Kevin Rogers
We've made it to the final week of the NFL's regular season with several playoff seedings up for grabs. It's a full card on Sunday with no Monday night game and for the first time ever, all games in Week 17 will involve divisional matchups. The NFC West title is up in the air as the Seahawks battle the Rams at Qwest Field, while the NFC South and AFC North championships have not been decided yet. We'll start in the AFC South as the Colts are one win away from their seventh division title in the last eight years.
Titans at Colts (-9½, 48)
Indianapolis is turning it on at the right time with three straight victories as the Colts sit on the doorstep of another division championship. The final hurdle for Peyton Manning's Colts is to knock off Tennessee for the second time this month to ensure a trip back to the postseason. The Titans have struggled over the last two months by losing seven of their past eight games.
The Colts' offense is getting healthier after the return of running back Joseph Addai in last Sunday's 31-26 victory at Oakland, the fourth consecutive game Indianapolis has broken the 30-point mark (resulting in four straight 'overs'). The running game has struggled all season for the Colts, but they rushed for 191 yards against the Raiders, including 98 from former Super Bowl hero Dominic Rhodes. Indianapolis owns an 11-2 SU and 8-5 ATS ledger since the start of last season at home following a win.
Tennessee is crawling to the finish line following an impressive 5-2 start, with the only victory in the last eight games coming over struggling Houston in Week 15. The Titans managed a late cover against the Colts in a 30-28 home loss as three-point underdogs in Week 14, but Tennessee is 0-4 SU/ATS the last four games as a road 'dog since a 3-0 ATS start on the highway.
Jaguars at Texans (-2½, 46)
Jacksonville needs help to win the division and that doesn't even involve Indianapolis necessarily. The Jags will have to beat the Texans and the Colts to fall to Tennessee, but quarterback David Garrard is out with a finger injury, further complicating Jacksonville's chances. Also, leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew is listed as doubtful with a knee injury that kept him out of last week's detrimental home overtime loss to the underachieving Redskins.
Houston is in no happy mood this week after blowing a 17-0 halftime lead in a 24-23 setback at Denver last week, the ninth loss in the previous 10 games for Gary Kubiak's team. The beleaguered head coach may be roaming the sidelines for the final time in Houston after failing to make the postseason once again following preseason aspirations to play January football. The Texans haven't helped backers at home with a dreadful 2-5 ATS mark at Reliant Stadium, while going 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS against division foes since 2009.
The Jaguars were dealt a huge blow with the setback to Washington in Week 16, but with Garrard and Jones-Drew sidelined, the division title hopes rest in the hands of former Bills' quarterback Trent Edwards. The ex-Stanford standout will be making his first start for Jacksonville after Todd Bouman played in place of Garrard in the Week 9 blowout loss at Kansas City. This game has the makings of a high-scoring affair as Jacksonville is 6-1 to the 'over,' while facing the league's worst pass defense.
Bears at Packers (-10, 41½)
These two NFC North rivals have completely different motivating factors heading into this matchup at Lambeau Field. Chicago is guaranteed a first-round bye following Philadelphia's loss to Minnesota on Tuesday, while Green Bay needs a victory to clinch the final Wild Card spot. The Packers blew out the Giants last Sunday to stay alive in the playoff race with a 45-17 victory as three-point favorites.
The Bears rallied past the Packers back in Week 3 at Soldier Field, 20-17, one of six Green Bay losses by four points or fewer. Despite the lack of running game, Mike McCarthy's club has managed to score plenty of points at home as the Packers are 5-2 to the 'over' at Lambeau this season. Since 2006, Green Bay owns an 8-6 ATS mark at home against division opponents, while going 5-2 ATS as a home double-digit favorite in this span.
The Bears will know by kickoff if they have an opportunity to get home-field advantage throughout the playoffs by virtue of Atlanta losing to 2-13 Carolina at home. Assuming the Falcons take care of business, Chicago may sit many of its regular starters to avoid injury with two weeks off until its first playoff game in the second round. The Bears have compiled a 5-2 ATS ledger as an underdog this season, while winning all but one road game in seven tries.
Giants (-4, 44½) at Redskins
The wheels have fallen off the wagon of Tom Coughlin's Giants following consecutive losses to the Eagles and Packers the last two weeks. New York needs some help to get back to the postseason, but the first task is to knock off its division rival Washington on the road. The Redskins' offense has seen a bit of spark under Rex Grossman, picking up covers on the highway the last two weeks, including an outright overtime shocker of the Jaguars as seven-point 'dogs.
New York chased out Washington at the new Meadowlands, 31-7 in Week 13 as seven-point favorites thanks to four rushing touchdowns. The Giants are just 2-3 SU/ATS against division foes this season, but own an 8-3 ATS mark on the road inside the NFC East since 2008. New York's defense needs to step up in this spot after allowing 83 points the last two games, including 73 points in the past five quarters.
The Redskins aren't going anywhere and may be parting ways with Donovan McNabb, but Washington is showing some signs of life the last two weeks. Washington rallied to tie Dallas late, even though the Cowboys won the game with a field goal in the final minutes. Last week's triumph at Jacksonville still gives Mike Shanahan's team a shot at a 7-9 season if it can beat the Giants on Sunday. For the exception of the 59-28 setback suffered to the Eagles, the other four home losses by the Redskins have come by four points or less.
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Week 17 NFL Games
Raiders (7-8) @ Chiefs (10-5) - Road team won seven of last eight series games, with Oakland winning last three visits here; Raiders could become first NFL team ever to go 6-0 in division and still miss playoffs- they beat Chiefs 23-20 in OT in Week 9, in flagfest where there were 27 accepted penalties for 240 yards. Chiefs clinched division last week, have playoff game next week but are expected to play their regulars here. KC won five of last six games, is 7-0 at home, 3-2 as home favorite. Oakland is 2-5 on road, 3-4 as road dog, losing away games by 25-1-8-32-7 points. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games, 4-3 if favored. Four of last five Raider games went over; three of last four KC games stayed under.
Dolphins (7-8) @ Patriots (13-2) - New England generally plays its guys no matter what, but cautioned advised, since they’re dead here if they decide to rest Brady (Welker tore knee up in similarly meaningless game LY). Dolphins are 6-1 on road, 1-7 at home; their only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore (+5); they’re 5-1 as road underdog. Fish lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 10-21-10 points. Patriots blocked FG for TD, ran kick back for TD, were +4 in turnovers and had defensive score in 41-14 rout of Dolphins (+1) in Miami back in Week 4. AFC East home teams are 2-8 vs. spread in divisional games this year, 1-5 if favored. Eight of last nine Patriot games went over total; six of last nine Miami games stayed under. Pats are +22 in turnovers the last seven games.
Titans (6-9) @ Colts (9-6) - Indy clinches AFC South with win here, against team that lost seven of last eight games, amid reported locker room divide over QB/coach rift. Tennessee lost six of last seven visits here, losing last two years, 23-0/27-17; they lost last four road games by combined score of 116-56 after winning first three road games this season. Colts won last three games, scored 30+ points in last four behind QB Manning. Indy is 4-3 as home favorite this year, winning home games by 24-10-13-6-10 points (lost to Chargers/ Cowboys). Five of last six Indy games went over total, as did Titans’ last three games. AFC South home teams are 8-2 vs spread in divisional games this season, 5-1 if favored.
Giants (9-6)@ Redskins (6-9) - Gutcheck time for Jersey squad that allowed 73 points in last 68:00, blowing 31-10 lead to Eagles, then getting waxed at Lambeau last week. Giants won five in row, eight of last nine series games, taking last four visits here by 6-7-16-33 points, but they’ve also turned ball over 41 times, six more than anyone else in NFL. Giants are 4-3 on road, 2-0 as road favorites; they’re 8-0 when they give up 20 or less points. 1-6 when they give up more. Redskins snapped 4-game skid with OT win in Jacksonville last week; their last three games were all decided by 3 or less points. If Packers beat Bears (games are at same time), Big Blue is done. Five of last six Redskin games stayed under total. Underdogs are 7-3 vs. spread in NFC East divisional games this year.
Jaguars (8-7) @ Texans (5-10) - Jax needs win and Titan upset in Indy to claim AFC South title. Home side won six of last seven series games, with Jags losing three of last four visits here- they won first series meeting this year 31-24 (-1.5) at home, outrushing Texans 165-81, outgaining them by 96 yards in a game where they had 10-yard edge in average field position. Houston lost eight of last nine games after 4-2 start; they blew 17-0 halftime lead last week to QB making his second career start. Only team Texans held under 24 points all year was Tennessee when they started 3rd-string QB, who making first (and likely last) NFL start. Home teams are 8-2 vs. spread in AFC South divisional games, 3-1 as home dogs. Six of last eight Texan games went over total.
Steelers (11-4) @ Browns (5-10) - Pitt is 13-1 in last 14 series games, but did lose 13-6 here LY , ending streak of 8 straight wins on Lake Erie; Steelers need win here to wrap up AFC North title and first round bye. Pitt won 28-10 at home (-14) in first series meeting, Big Ben’s first game back from suspension- he averaged 9.8 yards/pass attempt while Browns sacked Delhomme five times. Cleveland lost last three games by 7-2-10 points, scoring average of 11 peg (3 TDs on last 26 drives)- they’re 3-4 at home, with four of the seven decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Steelers won five of last six games, are 6-1 on road, but their last four road wins were all by 6 or less points- they’re 2-2 as road favorites. AFC North underdogs are 5-5 vs. spread, 2-2 at home.
Bengals (4-11) @ Ravens (11-4) - Not many 4-11 clubs can boast of two two-game win streaks, but Cincy can; they allowed total of just 123 rushing yards in beating Browns/Chargers last two weeks, and Palmer averaged 9.1/12.6 ypa, doing better with Owens/Johnson not playing. Ravens (-2) lost 15-10 at Cincy in Week 2, as Flacco was 17-39 passing with four picks (-4 TO ratio), but they’ve won/covered last three games overall, scoring 28 ppg (8 TDs on last 30 drives). Only way this game matters is if Browns upset Steelers, then Ravens would be playing for division title and a bye. Baltimore is 3-4 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3-16-7-6 points (lost to Steelers at home). Bengals’ last three road games stayed under the total.
Bills (4-11) @ Jets (10-5) - Gang Green is pretty much locked into #6 seed here; how much will they play ailing players, since they have playoff game next week? Jets (-5) won 38-14 in Buffalo back in Week 4, running ball for 273 yards, outgaining Bills by 221 yards- they had 13-yard edge in field position, starting three of 13 drives in Buffalo territory. Bills are 4-3 in last seven games after 0-8 start- they covered five of last six true road games, and won three of last four visits here. Jets lost three of last four games, losing 38-34 in Chicago last week when Bears scored four TDs on drives of less than 50 yards, but at least they scored three TDs, after one TD in 31-drive slump. Seven of last nine Buffalo games stayed under total, but 11 of last 14 Jet games went over.
Vikings (6-9) @ Lions (5-10) - Minnesota travels on very short week (played in Philly Tuesday) to face Lion squad they beat 24-10 (-11) back in Week 3, one of only three Detroit non-covers this season. Vikings outrushed Lions 183-63 in sloppy game (both teams had 3 turnovers, Vikes had 12 penalties/100 yards). Detroit is 12-3 vs. spread this year, winning last three SU, after going 4-40 SU in previous 44 games. Minnesota is 16-1 in last 17 series games, winning 7 of last 8 here- they won 20-16/27-13 in last two visits here. Not sure of motivation for Minnesota after playing three primetime games in three different cities in last three weeks. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Detroit games. Home teams are 6-4 vs. spread in NFC North divisional games, 4-2 as home dogs.
Bears (11-4) @ Packers (9-6) - Green Bay needs win to clinch Wild Card; Bears clinched first round bye Tuesday, so this game is meaningless to them, other than being rivalry game. Packers (-3) lost 20-17 in Week 3 at Chicago, getting whistled for 18 penalties, 152 yards- they outgained Bears by 103 yards, still lost. Rodgers came back last week as Pack spanked Giants- GB is 6-1 at home, 5-2 as home favorite, with home wins by 27-2-4-38-18-28 points. Bears are now 7-1 since their bye (only loss to 13-2 Patriots); they scored 78 points in last two games (8 TDs on last 24 drives). Average total in last four series games is 36. Last five Chicago games went over total, as have three of last four green Bay games. Pack wins this game, Giants/Bucs games become meaningless for them.
Cowboys (5-10) @ Eagles (10-5) - Philly has playoff game next week, could rest injured guys here, against team they beat 30-27 three weeks ago (-4), outrushing Dallas 171-110, averaging 9.2 ypa. Eagle defense allowed 24+ points in each of last five games (17 TDs on last 55 drives). Philly is just 4-3 at home, with three of four wins by 10+ points. Cowboys are scoring 31.3 ppg since Garrett became HC, after scoring 20.1 when Phillips was in charge- not sure if Kitna is good to go here after getting banged up vs. Cardinals. If he can’t go, backup McGee makes first NFL start. He was pretty good in relief in close loss at Arizona last week. Underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this year, 5-2 on road. Last 12 Dallas games went over the total, as did nine of last 11 Philly games.
Panthers (2-13) @ Falcons (12-3) - Atlanta needs this game to clinch #1 seed in NFC after tough loss Monday; they whacked Carolina 31-10 (-7) three weeks ago, running ball for 212 yards, holding Panthers to 2.7 ypa. Falcons are 4-3 as home favorite, with only one home win by more than 7 points. Panthers lost last two visits here, 45-28/28-20; they’re 2-5 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17-24 points. Carolina played last Thursday, so they had four more days than Atlanta to prepare for this, but coaches are probably looking for new jobs too, since new regime will be coming in after season. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year; home favorites are 1-5. Last three Carolina games stayed under the total.
Buccaneers (9-6) @ Saints (11-4) - Bucs can still make playoffs if they win and Packers/Giants lose; game doesn’t matter to Saints unless Carolina somehow upsets the Falcons. New Orleans (-5.5) crushed the Bucs 31-6 back in Week 6, outrushing Tampa 212-42, holding Bucs to 4.9 ypa. Saints had short week after Monday night win in rivalry game; they covered last three home games, winning by 10-15-18 points. Tampa is 2-3 in last five games, but none of the losses were by more than seven points; they’re 6-3 as an underdog this year, 6-0 on road, losing away games by 6-7 points- they’re 5-2 SU on road. Home teams are 1-9 vs spread in NFC South games, 1-5 if favored. Last three Buccaneer games stayed under the total.
Cardinals (5-10) @ 49ers (5-10) - 49ers (-1.5) won first meeting 27-6 on road, outrushing Arizona 261-13; game was actually on Monday Night Football, some fine scheduling there. Niners put Singletary out of his misery Sunday night, so now assistant coaches are scrambling for jobs, probably taking time away for prep for this. Arizona is +7 in turnovers in Skelton’s three starts, with home side winning all three games. Cardinals lost last six road games after opening season with win in St Louis; they’re 1-5 as road dog, losing away games by Home teams are 6-3-1 vs. spread in NFC West divisional games, 3-2 if they’re favored. 49ers are 3-3 at home, with wins by 8-3-19 points. Over is 9-4 in last thirteen Arizona games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four contests.
Chargers (8-7) @ Broncos (4-11) - Rookie QB Tebow rallied Denver from a 17-0 halftime deficit to nip Texans 24-23 last week, ending their 5-game skid, but question lingers, how do you get shut out for a half by Houston? Broncos (+9.5) lost 35-14 in first meeting at San Diego six weeks ago, getting outrushed 147-63, converting just 1-12 on 3rd down. Underachieving Chargers got KO’d from playoff race last week, so full effort here is no guarantee, especially after dismal loss in Cincinnati last week. San Diego is just 2-5 on road, winning 36-14 at Indy, 29-23 at Houston- its not often an 8-7 team was underdog only once all season. AFC West home teams are 7-3 vs. spread in divisional games, 3-0 as home dogs. Five of last six Charger games stayed under total.
Rams (7-8) @ Seahawks (6-9) - Winner gets NFC West title; Rams advance in case of a tie, thanks to 20-3 home win (+2) vs Seattle in Week 4; St Louis had 17-yard edge in field position in that game, as Seahawks went 3/out on half its 12 drives, but conservative Rams scored only 13 points on five red zone trips. Health of Seattle QB Hasselbeck is big here, as backup Whitehurst hasn’t shown much in limited action. Not only is Seattle 6-9, but all nine losses are by 15+ points- they’ve lost last three games and seven of last nine- they’re 4-3 at home though (lost three of last four). St Louis is 2-5 on road, 2-1 in last three; they’re 6-2 when allowing 17 or less points, 1-6 when allowing more. Last eight Seattle games went over total; three of last four Ram games stayed under. Well-coached Rams are 3-1 as a favorite this season.
Where the action is: NFL Week 17 Lines Moves
The final week of the NFL regular season is an oddsmaker’s worst nightmare. The questions surrounding player availability and team motivation delay lines for as long as they can, and when the odds do come out, bettors jump all over any spread they see as weak.
That makes for some very drastic line moves in Week 17. Here are the most notable:
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints – Open: -8 Move: -9.5 Move: -7.5
This spread is about as stable as a drunk girl with a busted heel on New Year’s Eve. The line was immediately bet up to 9.5 before bettors bought back the Bucs, who have a long shot at the postseason, dropping it close to a field goal. New Orleans is locked into a playoff spot but can claim home-field advantage through the playoffs with a victory Sunday.
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets – Open: -3 Move: Pick
This spread opened as high as -3 in favor of the Jets last Sunday and has come all the way down to a pick’em with a lot of bettors expecting a half-hearted effort from New York, what with its playoff spot etched in stone. Buffalo is going to give backup QB Brian Brohm a kick at the can while Jets pivot Mark Sanchez will at least start Sunday’s game.
Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots – Open: -1.5 Move: -4.5
This spread opened with the public expecting Patriots head coach Bill Belichick to rest his starters in the season finale, having already locked up to the top spot in the AFC. But, as football bettors have come to know, Belichick loves to keep everyone guessing and has this line rising to 4.5. His starters say they want to play, which is about par for the course (no one is going to say, “Give me the week off”), but there is still that uneasy feeling that Belichick may call off the dogs in Week 17.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans – Open: +2.5 Move -3
This spread has flipped, with the news that Jacksonville will be without RB Maurice Jones-Drew and QB David Garrard in Week 17. Add to that, Houston should be motivated to end on a high note after falling short of the playoffs – again. Head coach Gary Kubiak was assured he will keep his job, which is a lot of pressure off the team in the season finale.
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -8.5 Move: -10 Move: -9.5
The Colts aren’t used to giving a crap about Week 17. They’re usually planning for the postseason and sitting starters in the season finale. This year, Indianapolis has a lot riding on Week 17’s matchup with the Titans – namely the AFC South crown. The Colts can also grab the No. 3 seed in the AFC if they win and Kansas City loses Sunday. Bettors pumped this line to the key number of 10, the bought back Tennessee at a discount price.
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks – Open: +1.5 Move: +3
It seems bettors don’t respect a team that can go 6-9 and still have a shot at the postseason in Week 17. Seattle can win the NFC West crown and punch a playoff ticket with a win over the Rams at home. However, the Seahawks’ losing skid isn’t sitting well with bettors, taking this line to a field goal. Seattle will also go with Charlie Whitehurst at QB, which is another reason why the money is fading the home side.
Tips and Trends
New York Giants at Washington Redskins
GIANTS: (-4, O/U 44.5) New York has their backs up against the wall, as they must beat Washington and get alot of help in order to make the playoffs. It's been a rollercoaster ride for the Giants this season, as they've reached highs and lows numerous times. If the Giants fail to make the playoffs, it's likely that Coach Coughlin won't be back. New York is 9-6 SU and 7-8 ATS overall this season. The Giants are 4-3 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Giants are 4-3 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. QB Eli Manning has thrown for more than 3,750 YDS this season, including 30 TD's. Unfortunately, he's throwing 24 INT's this year, including 7 in his past 3 contests. New York averages 141 rushing YPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. New York is allowing 22.2 PPG this season, including 38 and 45 PTS in their past 2 games respectively. The Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in Week 17. New York is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Giants are 27-11 ATS in their last 38 road games. New York is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Giants are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall. New York is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games played on grass. The Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss.
Giants are 11-3 ATS last 14 games as a road favorite.
Over is 9-2 last 11 games against the NFC East.
Key Injuries - WR Hakeem Nicks (toe) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)
REDSKINS: Washington has revenge on their mind, considering they lost 7-31 SU less than a month ago. The Redskins are looking to play spoilers, as they want to make sure a division rival doesn't make the playoffs. Washington is 6-9 SU and 7-6-2 ATS overall this season. The Redskins are just 2-5 SU and 2-3-2 ATS at home this year. Washington has been the listed underdog in each home game they've played this season. The lone consistent offensive threat for the Redskins this year has been WR Santana Moss. Moss has 84 receptions for more than 1,000 YDS and 6 TD's this season. Defensively, Washington is allowing 24 PPG this year. The Redskins are allowing 262 YPG passing this year, 2nd most in the NFL. The Redskins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Washington is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points. The Redskins are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Washington is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC. The Redskins are 0-2-2 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Redskins are 7-16-1 ATS last 24 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - LB Brian Orakpo (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
St. Louis Rams at Seattle Seahawks
RAMS: (-2.5, O/U 43) St. Louis has grown up quickly, and they can punch their ticket to the playoffs with a win tonight. The Rams are 7-8 SU and 10-5 ATS overall this season. League officials would probably prefer the Rams win this game, therefore saving facing from the prospect of a team with a losing record making the playoffs. The Rams are 2-5 SU and 5-2 ATS on the road this year. Today will mark just the 2nd time this season the Rams are the listed favorite on the road. QB Sam Bradford has been amazing this year, both with his passing prowess but also his ability to lead his team. Bradford has thrown for more than 3,350 YDS this year, including 17 TD's. RB Steven Jackson has nearly 1,200 YDS rushing this year, including 6 TD's. Defensively, the Rams have an underrated defense. St. Louis is allowing just 20.8 PPG this season. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road favorite. St. Louis is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against the NFC West. The Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. St. Louis is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall. The Rams are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in Week 17.
Rams are 6-0 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Under is 9-1 last 10 games as a road favorite up to a field goal.
Key Injuries - LB David Nixon (hand) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
SEAHAWKS: Seattle is playing at home in the final week for an opportunity to win the division and make the playoffs. Few would have thought that the Seahawks would be just 6-9 both SU and ATS in the process. Seattle has plenty of revenge tonight, as they lost earlier this season to the Rams 3-20 SU. The Seahawks are 4-3 both SU and ATS at home this year. Seattle has had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game they've played this season. Seattle relies on their QB play offensively, because they have the worst rushing attack in the NFL. It's uncertain as of press time whether Matt Hasselback or Charlie Whitehurst makes the home start. Seattle is allowing 26.7 PPG this year, 5th worst in the NFL. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a losing road record. Seattle is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in January. The Seahawks are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC West. Seattle is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. Seattle is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Seahawks are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games overall.
Key Injuries - QB Matt Hasselback (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)