NFL News and Notes Sunday 1/3

Trend Setters - Week 17
By Kevin Rogers

One of the tougher weeks to handicap football is Week 17 with all the uncertainty of starters' playing time. In spite of that challenge, there are still plenty of profitable trends that can help bettors cash going into the postseason.

Giants at Vikings (-9, 47½)

Minnesota has struggled mightily down the stretch, dropping three of its past four. The Vikings return home to host the eliminated Giants, as Minnesota tries to lock up a first-round bye in the NFC playoffs. New York, meanwhile, looks to put an embarrassing performance against Carolina behind them.

Tom Coughlin's team has several strong numbers supporting them, including a 9-2 ATS mark the last 11 games as a road underdog. Also, the Giants are 9-5 ATS under Coughlin after allowing 35 or more points in their last game.

The Vikings have been solid as home favorites this season, compiling a 4-2-1 ATS mark. Minnesota has failed to cover each of the last two weeks, but it actually works in the Vikings' favor. Brad Childress' squad is 5-2 ATS since 2007 off consecutive ATS losses.

Coming off the loss to the Bears on Monday Night doesn't bode well for the Vikings. Minnesota is 0-11 ATS since 2003 as favorites off a SU favorite defeat, as this situation was in play against Chicago, with the Vikes failing to win as nine-point road favorites.

Niners (-7, 40½) at Rams

San Francisco tries to complete an 8-8 season, and their final hurdle is to beat the 1-14 Rams in St. Louis. The Niners have alternated wins and losses each of the last eight games, coming off the 20-6 victory over the Lions.

Sunday's game in St. Louis marks only the third time since 2004 that San Francisco will be listed as a road favorite. The Niners are 0-2 ATS in that role, including a last-second loss as one-point 'chalk' at Seattle in early December.

San Francisco has owned St. Louis over the years, putting together an 8-2 ATS mark the last ten meetings with the Rams. The Niners slammed the Rams, 35-0, in early October at Candlestick Park. Mike Singletary's group has played plenty of low-scoring affairs over the last five weeks, compiling five straight 'unders.'

The Rams can't get out of their own way, as evidenced by just one victory this season. St. Louis has covered several big numbers this season against New Orleans, Houston, and Indianapolis at home, but smaller numbers are a different story. The Rams are 4-10 ATS the last 14 games as a single-digit home underdog.

Falcons (-2½, 41½) at Bucs

Both Atlanta and Tampa Bay are each riding two-game winning streaks, looking to finish the season on a solid note. The Bucs went cross-country and thrashed the Seahawks, followed by a huge overtime upset of the Saints last week. The Falcons are getting healthy a bit too late, as Matt Ryan has led Atlanta to victories over the Jets and Bills the last two weeks.

Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 0-7 ATS and 1-6 SU off back-to-back SU wins. Atlanta has struggled at Raymond James Stadium over the years, possessing a 1-4 SU ledger at Tampa Bay the last five seasons.

The Bucs are only 1-6 ATS at home this season, with five of the losses coming by double-digits. Both these clubs have been riding nice 'under' streaks, with the Falcons going 'under' in five straight games and the Bucs finishing 'under' in six consecutive contests.

Eagles at Cowboys (-3, 47)

The NFC East title is on the line in Arlington, as the winner claims the division championship. There is still a shot the victorious squad can clinch a first-round bye in the NFC Playoffs, so at least one game on Sunday will have substantial meaning for both teams.

The Cowboys won at Philadelphia back in Week 9, marking the eighth cover in the last ten meetings by the underdog in this series. In spite of the loss, the Eagles are 5-2 ATS the previous seven matchups against the Cowboys, including the 44-6 beatdown of Dallas to end last season. Andy Reid's team is 5-2 ATS this season on the road, while going 10-3 ATS as a road underdog since 2006.

Dallas has struggled in the role of a short favorite, compiling a 2-5 ATS mark when laying 5 ½ points or less this season. The Cowboys have played better in December, but can't cover the finale to save themselves. Dallas is 0-6 ATS the last six seasons in Week 17, but has played at home only twice in this stretch.

Packers at Cardinals (-3½, 44)

Green Bay and Arizona may very well be playing a warm-up this week, as there is a very good chance these two clubs can meet in the Wild Card round. The Packers and Cardinals each share a 10-5 record, but Green Bay comes in winners of six of its past seven.

Mike McCarthy's team is 13-7 ATS as a road underdog in his tenure, but owns a 1-1 ATS mark this season in that role. This hot streak by the Packers has helped Green Bay backers, going 6-0-1 ATS, with the push coming in a six-point victory over the Niners.

The Cardinals are coming off a blowout win over the Rams, as the NFC West division is Arizona's for the second straight season. The Cards possess a strong 8-4 ATS mark under Ken Whisenhunt as a home favorite of a touchdown or less.

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Total Talk - Week 17
By Chris David

Week 16 Recap

Week 16 started and ended with two shootouts, but the ‘under’ still went 9-7. Nine of the 32 teams in action scored 30-plus points or more but nine more also put up 10 or less. Monday Night Football saw the ‘over’ cash for the second straight week, which helped the ‘over’ close with a 10-6 season mark. On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 127-109-3 (54%).

Final Stanza

Handicapping Week 17 is comparable to the preseason. The playoff scenarios often have teams resting, which could be good or bad for total players. Since nobody but the coaches know who’s going to play, it’s often a crapshoot. With that being said, we’re going to look at every game this week with some quick hitters on what we expect to happen in the final installment.

1:00 p.m. EST Games

Indianapolis at Buffalo: The Colts have seen the ‘over’ go 3-0 in games against AFC foes this year but it’s hard to imagine any points being posted in this one, especially with the Colts resting players. Look for Peyton Manning to get 1 to 2 series then pack it in. The Bills haven’t been able to light up the scoreboard all season, evidenced by their 10-5 ‘under’ record.

New Orleans at Carolina: Another game where nobody knows what New Orleans head coach Sean Payton will do in this spot. His team has dropped back-to-back games but they earned the No. 1 seed in the NFC despite the setbacks. Will Drew Brees play a quarter, perhaps the first half? Carolina has found a little spark behind QB Matt Moore but he won’t have Steve Smith and possibly the dangerous duo (Williams & Stewart) in the backfield either. Seven of the last nine in this series has gone ‘under’ the total.

Jacksonville at Cleveland: The Jaguars have given up 70 points in their last two games, while the Browns have posted 64 over the same stretch. Jacksonville hasn’t been able to score (12.9 PPG) on the road this year, which has helped produce a 5-2 ‘under’ mark. And the ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in Cleveland’s last five home games.

Chicago at Detroit: The Bears have put up 48, 27 and 34 points in their last three meetings against the Lions. However, Chicago has been held to 15 or less in six of their seven road games this year. This has been an ‘over’ series (6-2 L8) lately but so many injuries could hamper the scoreboard from getting lit up, especially with Stanton or Culpepper standing behind center for the Lions.

New England at Houston: The Patriots (11-4) and Texans (10-5) have both been golden for ‘under’ players this year. New England has already locked in the third or fourth seed in the AFC, while Houston has an outside shot to reach the playoffs. If you’re betting the ‘over’ here, you’re hoping Tom Brady plays more than a half, which is asking a lot.

Pittsburgh at Miami: The Dolphins have seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 at home this year and that could easily be 7-0. Miami has gotten away from the “Wildcat” due to injuries which means more passing. Pittsburgh has been airing it out often this year too, which always helps ‘over’ tickets. The weather in South Florida could be chilly on Sunday but the opportunities for a high-scoring affair should be aligned.

N.Y. Giants at Minnesota: The G-Men have watched the ‘over’ go 11-4, which is the highest percentage of all 32 teams. A little surprising too, since New York was known for its defense but that’s not the case this year. New York has been eliminated from the playoffs but the Vikings can be as high as the No. 2 seed in the NFC or as low as the No. 4. They need this game a lot, which could lead to a conservative game plan. These two clubs played in Week 17 last year and Minnesota earned a 20-19 decision at home.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay: The Falcons (5-0 L5) and Buccaneers (6-0 L6) have both been on solid ‘under’ runs entering this matchup. Five of the last seven in this series have been low-scoring battles, including the first meeting (20-17) this year.

San Francisco at St. Louis: If you bet the ‘over’ in this game and cash it fairly easily, then shoot me a copy of your ticket and I’ll gladly buy you a drink at a Las Vegas Sportsbook of your choice!

4:15 p.m. EST Games

Green Bay at Arizona: Since there is a great shot of these two teams squaring off next week in the Wild Card round, I would expect a very vanilla game being played in the desert. The total of 44 seems a tad high.

Philadelphia at Dallas: The Eagles need a win to clinch the second seed in the NFC while Dallas can clinch the No. 2 with a win and some help. Both teams will be going full tilt unless the game gets out of hand late. The Cowboys stopped the Birds 20-16 in Philadelphia on Nov. 8 and the closing number of 50 was never threatened, yet the line has only dipped to 48 for this encounter.

Kansas City at Denver: How are the Broncos going to move the chains without WR Brandon Marshall? I don’t know either but the total keeps getting lower and I’d have to agree with the public here. Even though the ‘over’ is on a 4-1 run in this series, I can’t see Denver coming close to the 44 points they dropped on the Chiefs in their first meeting this season.

Baltimore at Oakland: If the Ravens beat the Raiders, they go dancing to the playoffs. Oakland’s defense has played well at home when it’s coming off a loss. Combine that trend with the fact that they cannot score and it seems like a doable ‘under’ play. Plus, the Ravens are averaging 14.3 PPG in their last four on the road and all of those games have gone ‘under’ the number as well.

Washington at San Diego: The Redskins’ offense was on a bit of a roll but 12 points in the last two weeks have quickly erased whatever run you may remember. San Diego could probably go ‘over’ this week’s total (39) by itself but don’t expect the AFC’s second-seed to go full blast in this meaningless game.

Tennessee at Seattle: Tough one to handicap here, for both the side and the total. Seattle has dropped three in a row, giving up 35.3 PPG while doing so. And the Titans have posted 20 points or more in seven of their last nine. Will Seattle step up in its final home game or get pasted again? Jim Mora’s team is only averaging 17.8 PPG in the Great Northwest, which has produced a 5-2 ‘under’ ledger.

Sunday Night Football

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets: The Bengals can do no better than the third seed and no worse than the fourth in the AFC, while the Jets can earn a playoff spot with a victory in this game. New York’s defense (15.7 PPG, 263 YPG) is ranked first in the league in total yards. Will Cincinnati play its starters? The Bengals do have a legit defense so that should keep this game competitive for a bit. Low number (35) says it all here, plus gamblers following the SNF game this year should note that the ‘under’ has gone 11-5 in this spot.

Fearless Predictions

We came to close to another 3-0 sweep last week but the Panthers decided to put up a season-high 41 points on the Giants. We hoped to come close to even but unfortunately the season is definitely ending in the "Red". On the year, the Best Bets are 16-15-1 (-50) and our teasers are now 4-11-1 (-700). The deficit is -740 after 16 fearless efforts. Let’s try to finish up with the broom swinging in our direction. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Titans-Seahawks 45

Best Under: Colts-Bills 34.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Titans-Seahawks 36
Under Colts-Bills 43.5
Over Steelers-Dolphins 36.5

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Handicapping Week 17
The Gold Sheet

FINAL WEEK...PROCEED WITH CAUTION!

In many respects, the last week of the NFL regular season is different than the 16 pro football weekends that precede it. Not that it should cause handicappers to go into a state of panic. Indeed, adherence to traditional forecasting principles (such as identifying strengths and weaknesses of each side, fundamental matchups, personnel situations, psychological and technical considerations) is recommended as always.

But we might suggest altering the usual recipe just a bit for this week.

That's because the last week of the NFL season often will more resemble the preseason than a normal regular-season weekend. Much like handicapping exhibition games, we suggest paying extra attention to personnel developments and lineup moves, especially involving quarterbacks (most announced in advance), leading up to the games. Keep in mind that several Week 17 contests will have no bearing on the standings or playoff picture. And it's often the playoff-bound teams, especially those that can't improve their postseason seeding prospects, who experiment the most as they attempt to avoid extra any injuries of consequence before the knockout rounds commence.

But here is where it often gets tricky, and when a "working knowledge" of the teams often comes in handy. How will a squad respond if its backup QB is taking the snaps, often surrounded by other reserves getting a rare chance to perform? Even if a team isn't compelled to win, will it still focus on victory, or will care little about the much-discussed (and arguably overrated) "momentum" heading into the playoffs?

Unfortunately, recent history doesn't provide a clear road map of what to expect in the final regular-season week. A year ago, many playoff-bound teams, as usual, rested several starters (including QBs) in Week 17 action, with mixed results. Tennessee, assured on the AFC's top seed entering the final week of the regular season, subbed liberally in a meaningless game at Indianapolis (with Vince Young, by the way, going almost the whole way at QB in place of then-starter Kerry Collins). The playoff-bound Colts also took things easy, but responded better to the situation, with Jim Sorgi filling in effectively for a resting Peyton Manning in a 23-0 win. On the other hand, the Giants, already assured of the top seed in the NFC, took a slightly different approach in their final regular-season game at Minnesota, a game in which the Vikings, favored by 7 points, needed to win the NFC North. Tom Coughlin kept Giants starters on the field a bit longer than expected, although by the 4th quarter the G-Men were fielding mostly reserves. Nonetheless, they fought to the finish, when the Vikings needed a 50-yard FG by PK Ryan Longwell in the final seconds to secure a 20-19 win and the NFC North title.

Examples abound in all directions over the past few years. Back in the final regular-season week of the 2005 campaign, Denver, assured of the 2nd seed in the AFC, limited starting QB Jake Plummer's snaps and went with backup Bradlee Van Pelt the entire 2nd half, yet was still sharp and focused when winning 23-7 at San Diego. Jacksonville, locked into the 5th seed in the AFC, subbed liberally and played little-used QB Quinn Gray extensively, yet still whipped Tennessee, 40-13. On the other hand, Chicago low-keyed it at Minnesota and was whipped by the Vikings, 34-10. And 2005 NFC top seed Seattle also didn't risk QB Matt Hasselbeck for more than a couple of series in its 23-17 loss at Green Bay (in which HC Mike Holmgren's well-advertised lineup moves caused a dramatic point-spread shift, the Seahawks ending up a decided underdog and earning a point-spread push at Lambeau Field).

The mention of dramatic point-spread shifts (such as that 2005 Seahawks-Packers game) brings up another interesting Week 17 factor-must-win games don't necessarily mean must-wager games. Examples abound over the years, including the aforementioned Giants-Vikings game last season, when New York had nothing to play and the spread mushroomed in Minnesota's direction before. The Vikes, as mentioned above, didn't cover. And who could forget the final day of the 2003 season, when the Vikings needed a win in their season finale at going-nowhere Arizona to win the NFC North. But not only did Minnesota fail to cover as a 7 1/2-point favorite, it lost the game outright, 18-17, on a pair of Cardinal TDs in the final minutes, including an incredible 28-yard, 4th-down TD pass from Josh McCown to Nathan Poole to win the game with 4 seconds to play. Meanwhile, Green Bay, needing to win the same day over playoff-bound Denver to stay alive, easily handled the 9 1/2-point spread over the disinterested Broncos to advance to the postseason.

Caution, then, might be suggested before blindly laying whatever the point-spread with "must-win" teams such as the Jets and Ravens this week, facing supposedly disinterested foes.

Arizona's effort six years ago this weekend vs. the Vikings offers another example of Week 17 dynamics-don't automatically assume a team doesn't care about winning a game. This is especially true of non-playoff bound squads which would seem to have little to play for in the final week (such as the Lions a year ago). Except for the fact that pro football is the livelihood for the players, and future employment depends upon their performance. That's why we've rarely subscribed to the "lose to get a higher draft choice" argument we hear every season. Coaches of such lower-rung teams are rarely motivated to lose another game and put their own jobs in further jeopardy. And rest assured that players on a losing team could care less about next season's high draft choices who might take their place on the squad. Indeed, there are probably more examples of losing teams winning down the stretch, and thus worsening their draft position the following spring, than vice versa. Look no further than 2005, when San Francisco was in "pole position" for the number one draft choice entering the last two weeks of the season, only to beat the Rams and Texans and slide down to the 6th position in the draft. In the past, we can recall sides such as the 1968 Eagles winning twice late in the season and denying themselves a chance to draft the ballyhooed O.J. Simpson (who ended up with the Bills), and the 1988 Packers winning an otherwise meaningless regular-season finale at Arizona, allowing the Cowboys to draft Troy Aikman with the first pick instead.

Bad teams can often find various ways to beat themselves. But it's never because they're not trying to win. The front office might have different ideas, but rest assured one of the last things on a player's mind is being on a team that's "first on the clock" for next spring's draft!

Week 17 Need to Know Facts and Betting Info
By Doug Upstone

This is the final week for sports bettors in the NFL to take one last look at a full card before next September. There are meaningful matchups, potentially interesting contests and other games that are about as intriguing as watching "Cougar-Town". Let's take one last ride and go through all the relevant betting information for the final week of the NFL season.

Playoff Picture

* The NFC playoff teams are set, it just a matter of who plays who. New Orleans is top seed and Philadelphia is second seed if they win at Dallas. However, if the Cowboys win, there are two ways they could end up with second seed, two ways Minnesota could be second seed and one way Arizona could jump from fourth to second seed. For the wild card, Green Bay is presently fifth seed, but with a loss in the desert, probably falls to six seed. The Eagles will be either a second, fifth or sixth seed.

* The AFC wild picture is more muddled, just not at the top; Indianapolis and San Diego are essentially off this week and next (more on that in a moment). If New England wins at Houston, they are third seed, but slip to fourth if they lose and Cincinnati wins later Sunday night. If Baltimore and the New York Jets win, they are the last two playoff teams in the AFC, if they lose; suddenly the Rubik's Cube is easier to figure out.

Real Life or Football

* Though football can sometimes feel like life or death, here is further proof it is not. Imagine your company is on pace for record year 10 months into your fiscal and the national sales manager decides to take his key sales people off the road for a couple of weeks during the last two months and let less qualified sales staff handle accounts. The national sales manager's reasoning is that the company already had a very successful year and company strategists have created bonus plans for the first quarter of the next year if it is a record first quarter. Here's the kicker, the CEO and president agree with NSM. And the Indianapolis Colts are wondering why they've been criticized for not going after 16-0 season.

Week 17 Angles

* Teams off exactly three ATS losses are 8-17 ATS the last week of the regular season.( Jacksonville - Seattle)

* Teams off three or more spread losses are 23-7 UNDER in the last week of the regular season. (New Orleans)

* In the last week of the regular season, home favorites of three or fewer points are 18-10 ATS. (Cleveland - Dallas- Arizona)

* In Week 17, home underdogs off an away game are 4-11 ATS. (Detroit- Oakland - Seattle -Note these same clubs are also 11-21 ATS off a loss which each suffered)

* Teams that have played Over three times or more coming into the final game of the regular season are 6-1 ATS and 6-1 OVER. (N.Y. Giants - Denver)

* Teams that have played Under exactly three straight games are 7-3 OVER to conclude the season. (New Orleans - Dallas)

* Teams that have played Under four or more games in a row are 23-13 OVER in final contest ( San Francisco- Buffalo- Tampa Bay- Atlanta -New England)

* The Indianapolis Colts are 4-14 ATS in regular season finales.

* The New England Patriots are 18-6 ATS in their last regular season game.

* The Oakland Raiders are dismal 5-17 ATS in their final regular season contest.

Killer NFL Systems

* Play On all teams like Philadelphia when the line is +3 to -3, revenging a loss against opponent, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%) in the second half of the season. Over the last ten seasons, this system is 27-3 ATS, 90 percent.

* Play On a non-conference home teams like San Diego off SU road win in their final game of the season. In the last nine years this system is 12-4, 75 percent.

Super Duper Trends

* Seattle is 0-8 ATS as an underdog this season, losing by 19.9 points per game.

* Arizona is 8-0 ATS vs. good passing teams averaging seven or more passing yards per attempt over the last two seasons winning by 9.9 points per contest.

* Baltimore is 9-0 ATS playing against a team with a losing record since last season, destroying them by 23 points per game.

* Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS on the road in 2009. (Be careful here, however)

* The SU winner of Philadelphia and Dallas is 31-5-1 ATS.

Slippery Slope Situations

* The Green Bay at Arizona contest is one of the three potential matchups for the first week of the playoffs next weekend. Arizona has more to play for since they could move up in seeding; however by game time they will know what they are playing for with Minnesota decision in. In truth, Green Bay could probably care less if they face the Cardinals or Vikings since they are on the road either way. Going into the game, coach Mike McCarthy has to figure its back to the desert and expect vanilla pudding game plans for both squads and a challenging wager any way you want to look at it.

* Cincinnati at New York Jets is about what happens with New England. If the Patriots win, it's an exhibition game for the Bengals, if not it's up to the coaches to figure out what a three seed is worth to them. The Flyboys have to go all out or go home.

* The Eagles and Cowboys have to give maximum effort with division crown and potentially No. 2 seed on the line. Both teams are playing their best football of the season and with the way New Orleans and Minnesota are struggling, it is not a stretch to surmise the winner of this game could well be the NFC representative for the Super Bowl.

* Bill Belichick has always been intent on winning every game, but the fact remains New England has a home playoff game next week and to get to the Super Bowl they will have to probably defeat San Diego and Indianapolis on the road, thus, which order they would play them has little bearing to them. Houston still has ample motivation, the playoffs are still a possibility, first-ever winning season on the line and creating buzz for next year, plus closing with four-game winning streak, though lamenting 1-5 and 2-4 ATS record in division.

Indianapolis (14-1, 10-5 ATS) at Buffalo (5-10, 7-8 ATS)

The Colts, coming off their first loss of the season, wrap up regular-season play with a trip to Ralph Wilson Stadium to face the Bills in one of several meaningless Week 17 contests.

Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell controversially pulled QB Peyton Manning and other top starters while holding a 15-10 lead in the third quarter of last week’s home game against the Jets. The Colts went on to lose 29-15 as a three-point favorite. Along with halting their 23-game regular-season win streak, the loss also snapped the Colts’ 5-0 ATS surge. Indy has nothing to play for this week, having already secured home-field advantage for the AFC playoffs.

Buffalo has dropped three of its last four games SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 31-3 setback as a nine-point underdog at Atlanta. The Bills have scored 16 points or less in all four games, and they are averaging just 15.2 ppg for the season (29th), along with just 265.3 ypg (30th). However, they’re big favorites this week, with the Colts unlikely to use their first-stringers for long, if at all.

Indianapolis is 6-0 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this decade against Buffalo, most recently winning 17-12 in November 2006, but failing to cash as a hefty 12-point home chalk. The favorite is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests.

The Colts are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss, but they are otherwise riding positive ATS streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 6-0 against losing teams and 18-7-1 on the highway. Conversely, the Bills are on ATS skids of 0-4 in January, 1-5 in regular-season finales and 4-11 against winning teams.

The over is on runs for Indianapolis of 4-1 overall and 5-2 against losing teams, but the under for the Colts is on stretches of 9-2 in Week 17 and 6-2 in January. The under for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against winning teams, 5-1 at home and 4-1 against AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last eight meetings overall and is on a 4-0 run in Buffalo.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

New Orleans (13-2, 8-7 ATS) at Carolina (7-8, 8-7 ATS)

The suddenly struggling Saints cap the regular season with a stern road test against the revitalized Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.

New Orleans followed its home loss to Dallas two weeks ago with a stunning 20-17 overtime defeat to lowly Tampa Bay as a 14-point home chalk last week. Despite that, with Minnesota losing on Monday night at Chicago, the Saints have clinched home field throughout the NFC playoffs and therefore have nothing on the line against the Panthers. In fact, coach Sean Payton said QB Drew Brees will sit this game out, leaving veteran backup Mark Brunell to run the offense.

Carolina blasted the Giants right out of the NFC postseason picture with a 41-9 road bashing Sunday, marking the second straight week the Panthers have won and cashed as a nine-point underdog. Two weeks ago, they ripped the Vikings 26-7 at home, and they’ve now cashed in four straight games (3-1 SU). QB Matt Moore has six TDs and no INTs the past two games, totally outplaying Brett Favre and Eli Manning, respectively, and his efforts could mark the end of the injured Jake Delhomme’s Carolina career.

Carolina is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this NFC South rivalry (4-2 SU), cashing in each of the last three meetings. Last month, New Orleans won 30-20, but the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. In fact, the road team is 16-5 ATS in the last 21 clashes, with New Orleans on a 6-1 ATS streak in Charlotte. The one loss came in a 30-7 blowout last season as a three-point ‘dog.

The Saints are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 roadies and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 following a SU setback, but they are mired in ATS ruts of 0-4 overall, 0-4 in Week 17, 0-6 in January, 1-5 in division play and 1-4 against losing teams. On the flip side, the Panthers are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in season finales, 6-0 against winning teams, 7-0 against the NFC and 4-0 inside the division.

The over has hit in New Orleans’ last four regular-season finales and is on runs for Carolina of 6-2 in the NFC South and 9-4 in January. However, the under is on streaks for the Saints of 5-1 overall, 4-0 in division action and 4-0 after a non-cover, and the Panthers are on “under” surges of 5-1 overall, 5-1 at home, 4-1 after a SU win and 6-2 coming off an ATS win. Finally, in this rivalry, the under is on tears of 8-2 overall and 6-0 at Bank of America Stadium.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA and UNDER

Jacksonville (7-8, 5-10 ATS) at Cleveland (4-11, 9-6 ATS)

The Jaguars, who amazingly still have some long-shot scenarios in which they’d make the playoffs, head to the chill of Cleveland Municipal Stadium to take on the surging Browns.

Jacksonville got hammered at New England 35-7 last week catching 9½ points for its third consecutive SU and ATS loss, putting it all but on the brink of postseason elimination. RB Maurice Jones-Drew (1,309 rushing yards, 15 TDs) is the league’s fifth-leading rusher and is second in rushing TDs, but the Jags have little more than that, averaging just 18.2 ppg (23rd). QB David Garrard is questionable for this contest.

Cleveland dropped Oakland 23-9 as a three-point home chalk Sunday and has now surprisingly strung together three consecutive SU wins to go with six straight spread-covers. Even with the recent success, the Browns are still dead last in total offense (257.5 ypg) and 30th in scoring (14.8 ppg), and they’re allowing a league-worst 393.4 ypg.

Cleveland sprung a 23-17 road upset on Jacksonville in October 2008 as a seven-point pup, and these teams have alternated SU and ATS victories over the last six clashes, with the road team winning and cashing five straight times. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in this rivalry, and the SU winner has covered in seven consecutive meetings.

The Jaguars are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 8-20 overall, 1-6 against losing teams, 2-6 after a non-cover, 1-4 after a SU loss, 1-4 on the road and 2-5 as a pup. The Browns, meanwhile, are in a 1-4 ATS rut as a home chalk – with last week’s effort marking the lone win – but along with their current 6-0 ATS tear, they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-0 against the AFC, 4-0 against losing teams, 10-4 following a SU win and 5-2 in regular-season finales.

Jacksonville is on “under” sprees of 5-1 overall, 8-2 on the highway, 9-2 as a road pup and 4-1 against losing teams. Similarly, Cleveland is on “under” runs of 6-0-1 in Week 17, 9-2 against losing teams, 4-1 at home, 8-2 as a chalk and 9-4 in conference action.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Chicago (6-9, 5-10 ATS) at Detroit (2-13, 4-9-2 ATS)

Two teams playing out the string get together when the Bears resume their NFC North rivalry with the Lions at Ford Field.

Chicago upset Minnesota 36-30 in overtime as a nine-point home pup Monday night, halting a season-killing 1-6 SU and 0-7 ATS freefall, as QB Jay Cutler finally had his TD passes (4) outnumber his INTs (1). Detroit, meanwhile, lost to San Francisco 20-6 Sunday but got the push as a 14-point road ‘dog for its fifth consecutive loss (2-2-1 ATS). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, the Lions are an abysmal 3-36 SU and 12-25-2 ATS.

Chicago has won three in a row (2-1 ATS) against Detroit, including a 48-24 bashing as a 9½-point home chalk on Oct. 4. However, the underdog is still 8-3-1 ATS in the last 11 clashes between these longtime rivals.

Despite last week’s stunning upset, the Bears are on a myriad of ATS skids, including 1-7 overall, 0-5 in roadies, 1-7 against the NFC, 1-6 in Week 17 and 2-7 within the division. The Lions have cashed in six of their last eight season-enders, but they are on ATS declines of 2-6-2 overall, 0-4-1 in the NFC North, 4-12 at Ford Field and 4-9 as a home underdog.

The over has hit in Chicago’s last seven January starts, but the under of the Bears is on runs of 6-1 overall, 5-1 against the NFC, 4-1 on the road and 7-2 against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on upturns of 4-1 in the division, 4-1 in January and 5-2 with the squad a home pup, but the Lions are on “over” streaks of 4-0 in Week 17 and 9-3 against losing teams.

Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings, but the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight matchups in Detroit.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CHICAGO

New England (10-5, 8-7 ATS) at Houston (8-7, 7-7-1 ATS)

The Texans, one of a bundle of AFC teams clinging to wild-card playoff hopes this weekend, return to Reliant Stadium after a two-game road swing to take on the Patriots, who have already clinched the AFC East.

Houston, which needs to win and get a lot of help to reach the postseason for the first time ever, dropped Miami 27-20 last week as a one-point road pup for its third consecutive SU win (2-1 ATS), which followed a four-game slide (1-3 ATS). The Texans are thriving on the arm of QB Matt Schaub, who leads the NFL’s No. 2 passing attack (290.6 ypg). A victory today would give Houston its first winning season.

New England ripped Jacksonville 35-7 Sunday for its third straight victory as well, easily covering as a 9½-point home chalk. However, the Patriots have little to play for this week, as they will take either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the playoffs. They are expected to rest their starters, including QB Tom Brady, and the Texans are a heavy favorite.

These squads have met just twice, with New England going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, the Pats rolled 40-7 as a 13-point home favorite in December 2006. Prior to that, Houston lost 23-20 at home in November 2003, but covered as a 5½-point pup.

The Texans are on a 1-6-1 ATS purge following a spread-cover, but they are on ATS runs of 5-2-1 against winning teams and 3-1-1 after a SU win. The Patriots have gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 regular-season finales, but they are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five starts as a road ‘dog.

The under carries the day for both these teams. Houston is on “under” tears of 15-5-1 overall, 5-0 with the Texans favored, 6-1-1 against AFC foes and 10-2 after a spread-cover, though Gary Kubiak’s troops are on a 20-8 “over” surge against winning teams. For New England, the under is on streaks of 5-0-1 overall, 7-1 on the road, 6-1 after a SU win and 5-0 after a spread-cover.

ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON and UNDER

Pittsburgh (8-7, 4-10-1 ATS) at Miami (7-8, 8-7 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers, who must win and get some help to reach the playoffs, travel to LandShark Stadium for a clash with the Dolphins, who also still harbor very slim playoff hopes.

Pittsburgh edged Baltimore 23-20 to get the push as a three-point home chalk for its second consecutive SU win, following a five-game slide. The Steelers have cashed just once in their last seven games (1-5-1 ATS). Pittsburgh fields the No. 5 total defense (305.5 ypg), while allowing 20 ppg (tied for 12th), while the offense averages 369.2 ypg (ninth) and outscores opponents by less than a field goal per game (22.5 ppg, tied for 14th).

Miami dramatically hindered its playoff prospects last week, falling behind Houston 27-0 in the second quarter and having its rally fall short in a 27-20 loss as a one-point home favorite. It was the Dolphins’ second straight loss and ended a three-game ATS uptick. Miami has been hurt by a minus-7 turnover margin and a defense giving up 24 ppg, both rating 25th, but the running game has been a big positive, ranking fourth at 142.1 ypg despite losing RB Ronnie Brown to a season-ending injury several weeks ago.

Pittsburgh has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 3-0 yawner as an overwhelming 16-point home chalk in a game played in a quagmire in November 2007. The SU winner is 7-1 ATS in the last eight contests.

The Steelers have covered in their last six January games, but they are on ATS dips of 0-3-1 overall, 0-6 against losing teams, 0-5-1 laying points, 2-7 on the road and 0-7 as a road chalk. The Dolphins are just 15-38-1 ATS in their last 54 at Land Shark, though they carry positive ATS streaks of 6-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 after a spread-cover, 4-0 against winning teams, 4-1 in Week 17 and 7-2 in conference action.

Pittsburgh is on “over” rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 4-1 against losing teams, 17-5 in January and 7-3 in Week 17, and the over for Miami is on stretches of 8-1 in season finales and 5-1-1 at home. But the under is on a 3-0-1 run for the Steelers following a SU win and is 4-1 in the Dolphins’ last five as a pup. Plus, in this rivalry, the under is on a 4-1-1 surge and is 3-0-1 in the last four Miami meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MIAMI

N.Y. Giants (8-7, 6-9 ATS) at Minnesota (11-4, 8-6-1 ATS)

The Vikings, fighting for the No. 2 seed and a first-round playoff bye, face the Giants, who fell apart over the last 10 games and are no longer in playoff contention as they travel to the Metrodome.

Minnesota has dropped two in a row SU and ATS, as a nine-point road favorite in both cases. Following a 26-7 blowout loss at Carolina, the Vikes trailed Chicago 23-6 Monday night, rallied to force overtime, then lost 36-30 when an Adrian Peterson fumble led to Jay Cutler’s fourth TD pass of the game. Three weeks ago, Minnesota sported a top-10 scoring defense, allowing just 18.7 ppg. After giving up 62 points the past two weeks, the Vikings have dropped to 14th at 20.3 ppg.

Still, the Brett Favre-led offense is among the league’s best, averaging 28.4 ppg (fifth) and 372.5 ypg (eighth). Also, Minnesota is a perfect 7-0 in the dome this season (4-2-1 ATS), but it needs a victory and an Eagles loss at Dallas to secure the No. 2 seed.

New York’s playoff hopes were shot down in a humiliating 41-9 loss to Carolina as a nine-point home favorite in its last game at Giants Stadium, as the Giants and Jets will move next door to a new stadium next season. New York started the season 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS), but they haven’t put together back-to-back wins since then. After the hot start, the Giants dumped four in a row SU and ATS, then alternated SU wins and losses over their last six games (2-4 ATS).

These teams have met nine times in the past 10 years, with Minnesota going 5-4 SU (4-5 ATS). The Vikings won the last three in a row (2-1 ATS) after a three-game SU and ATS run by New York, and the SU winner is on an 8-1 ATS tear. Most recently, Minnesota eked out a 20-19 home win, but New York cashed as a seven-point road pup in last year’s regular-season finale.

Furthermore, in this rivalry, the Giants are on a 4-0 ATS run at the Metrodome, the underdog has cashed five straight times, and the road team is on a 6-0 ATS roll.

The Vikings are on a modest 3-0-1 ATS run at home, and they are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a SU loss, but they shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 1-8-1 in Week 17, 2-5 in January and 3-7 against winning teams. The Giants are on ATS plunges of 2-8 overall, 1-7 against winning teams and 2-5-1 following either a SU or an ATS setback. However, they are on ATS sprees of 20-6 on the highway, 10-2 as a road underdog, 5-0 in Week 17 and 4-1 in January.

The over for New York is on surges of 4-0 overall, 6-0 against the NFC, 4-0 with the Giants a ‘dog and 5-1 in regular-season finales, though the under has hit in five of the Giants’ last six January outings. The under for Minnesota is on several upswings, including 6-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a chalk), 6-1-1 in January, 6-1 with the Vikes favored, 5-1 within the NFC and 7-3-1 in Week 17.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS

San Francisco (7-8, 8-4-3 ATS) at St. Louis (1-14, 7-8 ATS)

The 49ers have nothing to play for other than avoiding a losing season when they travel to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the hapless Rams.

San Francisco cashed in its first four games while going 3-1 SU, but despite a pair of wins over the defending NFC champion Cardinals this year, the Niners won’t make the playoffs. They have alternated SU wins and losses over their last eight games (3-3-2 ATS), beating Detroit 20-6 last week and pushing as a 14-point home chalk.

St. Louis fell to Arizona 31-10 as an overwhelming 16-point road pup Sunday for its seventh straight loss (4-3 ATS), and the Rams are a meager 1-24 SU (11-14 ATS) in their last 25 games.

San Francisco has won the last three meetings in this rivalry (2-1 ATS) and is 8-2 ATS (7-3 SU) in the last 10 clashes. The Niners are 4-1-1 ATS on their last six visits to St. Louis, but the underdog is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 contests between these two.

The 49ers are on positive ATS stretches of 11-5-4 overall, 5-0-3 after a non-cover and 4-1 in the NFC West, though they’re also in ATS ruts of 0-6-1 as a road chalk and 2-6-1 against losing teams. Similarly, the Rams are a mixed bag at the betting window, with ATS upticks of 4-0 after a non-cover and 4-1 in Week 17, and ATS downfalls of 9-19 at home, 7-20 in NFC West action and 14-29 following a SU loss.

The over is 5-2 in St. Louis’ last seven home games and 6-1 in its last seven Week 17 starts, but the under is on a 6-1-1 run for the Rams in division play. Furthermore, the under for San Fran is on rolls of 5-0 overall, 5-0 with the Niners a road chalk, 6-0 in the NFC West, 4-1 against losing teams and 7-3 on the highway. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six of the last seven meetings overall and four of the last five in St. Louis.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Atlanta (8-7, 10-5 ATS) at Tampa Bay (3-12, 6-9 ATS)

Two more teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Buccaneers play host to the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium.

Tampa Bay pulled off one of the season’s biggest upsets Sunday, shocking New Orleans 20-17 in overtime as a 14-point road ‘dog to win and cover for the second straight week. Prior to those two wins, the Bucs were just 1-12 SU and 4-9 ATS.

Atlanta, looking for back-to-back winning seasons for the first time in team history, ripped Buffalo 31-3 last week as a nine-point home chalk and has now won two in a row SU and three in a row ATS. But the Falcons will miss the postseason after getting in as a wild card last year.

Tampa Bay is on a 5-0 ATS spree (3-2 SU) in this NFC South rivalry, though Atlanta earned SU wins in the last two meetings, including a 20-17 home victory laying 12 points on Nov. 29. The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last seven matchups.

Despite their efforts the past two weeks, the Buccaneers are on ATS slides of 1-9 at home, 1-7 as a home ‘dog, 1-6 catching three points or less, 1-5 in regular-season finales and 2-5 after a spread-cover. The Falcons are on ATS runs of 5-2 as a chalk and 4-1 giving three points or less on the road, but they’ve gone just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 January games.

The under has hit in five of the last seven meetings in this rivalry, and Tampa Bay is on “under” rolls of 6-0 overall, 5-0 in the conference, 4-0 inside the division, 6-0 with the Bucs getting points and 10-3 against winning teams. Likewise, Atlanta is on “under” surges of 5-0 overall, 6-1 as a road chalk and 35-17-2 following a SU win, but the Falcons also sport “over” streaks of 5-1 in roadies and 9-4 against NFC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA

Philadelphia (11-4, 9-6 ATS) at Dallas (10-5, 8-7 ATS)

The Eagles look to wrap up the NFC East and the No. 2 seed when they travel to the Lone Star State to battle the Cowboys, who can also still win the division and possibly get the No. 2 seed, as well.

Philadelphia has peeled off six consecutive victories (4-2 ATS), holding off Denver on Sunday for a 30-27 home decision, though it failed to cash as a seven-point chalk. The Eagles have had no problem scoring during their current tear, putting up 24 points or more in all six games, including 30 or more three times. Philly is averaging 28.6 ppg for the season (third), aided greatly by a sterling plus-15 turnover margin (second).

Dallas dropped its first two games this month, continuing a trend of poor Decembers, but has since bounced back with a pair of road victories. One week after upsetting previously unbeaten New Orleans, the Pokes topped Washington 17-0 as a seven-point road favorite Sunday night. Dallas’ offense is averaging 394.4 ypg (third), but is more middle-of-the-pack in scoring at 22.5 ppg (tied for 14th).

The winner of this contest clinches the NFC East title, and Philadelphia will get the first-round playoff bye with a victory. Dallas needs a win and losses by Minnesota and Arizona to clinch the No. 2 seed.

These division rivals have split SU wins over the past six meetings, with Philadelphia going 4-2 ATS in that stretch, though Dallas notched a 20-16 road win as a three-point pup on Nov. 8, ending a 3-0 ATS surge by the Eagles. The road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes, Philly is 4-1 ATS on its last five trips to the Big D, and the underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll.

The Eagles have failed to cover in four of their last five Week 17 starts, but they are otherwise on pointspread tears of 7-1 after an ATS loss, 4-1 on the road, 20-8 in conference play, 5-2 inside the division and 38-18-2 as an underdog. The Cowboys are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 NFC outings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven following a SU win, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-6 in Week 17, 1-6 in January and 4-11 in the NFC East.

Philadelphia is on a handful of “over” sprees, including 11-5 overall, 4-1 in division action, 22-6 getting points, 7-2 after an ATS setback and 6-2 against winning teams. On the flip side, Dallas is on “under” stretches of 7-1 overall, 5-1 within the NFC, 5-1 laying points and 4-1 following a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA

Green Bay (10-5, 10-4-1 ATS) at Arizona (10-5, 9-6 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Cardinals, currently the No. 4 seed as NFC West champs but still with an outside chance to get to No. 2, take on the wild-card-bound Packers at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona thumped St. Louis 31-10 as a hefty 16-point home chalk Sunday, winning for the second consecutive week while halting a two-game ATS hiccup. The Cardinals are 10th in the league in scoring, at 24.5 ppg, and they had just one turnover while forcing four against the Rams after committing a whopping 10 turnovers in their previous two games. Arizona is also allowing just 19.5 ppg (10th).

Green Bay is among the league’s hottest teams, having won six of its last seven, with the only loss a 37-36 setback as a 2½-point pup at Pittsburgh two weeks ago, a game the Steelers won on the final play of the game. Last week, the Packers rolled Seattle 48-10 as a heavy 13½-point home chalk to cover for the fifth straight time. Green Bay is averaging 381.3 ypg and 28.5 ppg, both fourth in the league, and the Pack have a whopping plus-22 turnover margin, tops in the league by seven.

Despite their current hot streak, the Packers will get either the fifth or sixth seed for the NFC playoffs.

These clubs have had four meaningful meetings this decade, with Green Bay going 3-1 SU and ATS, including a 31-14 victory as a four-point home favorite in October 2006. The SU winner covered in all four contests.

The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 14-6 overall, 6-0 in regular-season finales, 6-0 in January, 7-1 against winning teams, 4-1 at home and 9-4 following a SU win. Likewise, the Packers are on ATS rolls of 6-0-1 overall, 4-0-1 after either a SU or an ATS win, 4-1-1 in Week 17, 19-7-1 on the highway, 7-2 as an underdog and 11-4-1 as a road pup.

The under for Arizona is on stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-2 after a spread-cover, 5-2 at home and 4-1 in NFC play, though the over is 19-7 in the Cards’ last 26 games against winning teams. The over for Green Bay is on surges of 13-6-1 in roadies, 4-1 with the Pack a road pup, 24-7 following a spread-cover, 22-8-1 in conference action and 20-8 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Kansas City (3-12, 6-9 ATS) at Denver (8-7, 9-6 ATS)

The Broncos, now a long shot to make the playoffs, wrap up the regular season against the lowly division rival Chiefs at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Denver rallied from a 27-10 third-quarter deficit Sunday at Philadelphia, but ultimately lost 30-27 as a seven-point pup. It was the first Broncos game this season – and in fact the first in their last 18 overall – that the SU winner didn’t cover. Denver continues to rank among the league’s best defenses, allowing 301.1 ypg (fifth) and 18.7 ppg (eighth), but the Broncos are averaging just 20.1 ppg (tied for 19th). Denver busted out of the gate with six straight wins under first-year coach Josh McDaniels, but now needs to win today and get a lot of help to qualify for the postseason.

Kansas City has dropped five consecutive games (1-4 ATS), including a 17-10 loss last week at Cincinnati, though it covered as a hefty 13-point underdog. The Chiefs are near the bottom of the pack in total offense (288.5 ypg, 28th) and scoring (16.7 ppg, 25th), and their defense is no better, yielding 379.9 ypg and 26.7 ppg, both 30th in the league.

Denver has won four of the last five in this rivalry (3-2 ATS), rolling to a 44-13 road rout four weeks ago as a six-point chalk. The Broncos are 6-2 ATS in the last eight home clashes with Kansas City, and the home team is 12-5-1 ATS in the last 18 meetings. Also, the SU winner is on an 8-2 ATS run.

The Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine starts following a spread-cover, but they are on several negative ATS streaks, including 8-20-1 at Invesco, 7-22-1 laying points, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 6-16-1 in the AFC West and 2-6 following a SU loss. The Chiefs are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall, 1-4 in the division and 2-6 in January, though they are 4-1 ATS in their last five roadies (all as a pup) and are 10-2 ATS in their last dozen catching more than 10 points.

The under is 6-1 in Denver’s last seven home games, but the over is on runs for the Broncos of 4-0 overall, 5-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in January, 13-5 in AFC West action and 18-7-2 following a SU loss. For Kansas City, the under has hit in seven of its last eight Week 17 games and is on a 4-1 surge in January, but the over is 4-1-1 in the Chiefs’ last six against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Baltimore (8-7, 8-6-1 ATS) at Oakland (5-10, 7-8 ATS)

The Ravens, who are in a win-and-you’re-in playoff situation, make the long trek to the West Coast to face the inconsistent Raiders at the Coliseum.

Baltimore fell to Pittsburgh 23-20 last week, getting a push as a three-point road pup in a game that ended its modest two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Ravens are averaging 24.7 ppg for the year, but they’ve scored 20 points or less in six of their last eight games. Picking up the slack is a defense that’s second in the league in points allowed, at a meager 16.5 per game, and third in total yards allowed (298.9 ypg).

Oakland has pulled off a few upsets this year, beating Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Denver – all playoff-bound or in playoff contention – but the Raiders have also lost their share of games against league doormats. That was the case last week, when Oakland fell 23-9 as a three-point ‘dog at Cleveland. The Raiders have alternated SU wins and losses over their last seven games, and alternated ATS wins and losses over their last 11.

Baltimore is 8-1 SU and ATS in the last nine clashes with Oakland, but only four of those meetings came in the last 10 years, with the Ravens going 3-1 SU and ATS. Last year, Baltimore rolled 29-10 as a nine-point home chalk. The Ravens are 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings, as is the home team, and the SU winner has cashed in the last 10 matchups dating to 1986 with the Ravens were the Browns.

The Ravens are on ATS rolls of 19-9-1 overall, 11-0 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 13-4 laying points, but they’ve gone just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 as a road chalk and are on a 2-6 ATS slide in January. The Raiders are on pointspread dives of 1-5 in Week 17, 16-38-1 at the Coliseum and 10-22 as a home pup, but they also sport positive ATS streaks of 5-0 after a non-cover, 5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against winning teams.

Baltimore is on “under” tears of 6-2-1 overall, 3-0-1 on the road, 5-1-1 within the AFC, 4-1 against losing teams, 10-3 laying points and 12-4-2 as a road chalk. The under is also 41-19-2 in Oakland’s last 62 game against winning teams, and in this rivalry, the under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and UNDER

Washington (4-11, 7-8 ATS) at San Diego (12-3, 8-7 ATS)

The Chargers, winners of 10 straight and having already clinched the No. 2 AFC playoff seed, close out the regular season against the Redskins at Qualcomm Stadium.

San Diego ripped Tennessee 42-17 in a Christmas night contest last week as a three-point road ‘dog, improving to 7-3 ATS during its 10-game SU run. The Chargers have nothing to play for this week, but coach Norv Turner has indicated that his healthy starters – including QB Philip Rivers – will play, though he didn’t specific for how long.

Washington is playing out the string, having lost five of its last six and nine of its last 11, including a 17-0 home setback to Dallas last Sunday night as a seven-point underdog. The Redskins average just 16.4 ppg (26th) and 310.6 ypg (23rd), and they’ll try to avoid their third losing streak of three or more games this year in Sunday’s finale.

In two meetings this decade, San Diego is 2-0 SU and ATS against Washington, most recently winning 23-17 in overtime in November 2005 as a 3½-point road chalk.

The Chargers are on nothing but positive ATS streaks, including 6-2 overall, 4-1 in January and 21-7 laying 3½ to 10 points at home. The Redskins have cashed in five of their last seven games and are on a 4-1 ATS run on the road, but they are 3-8-2 ATS in their last dozen coming off an ATS setback.

The over for San Diego is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home and 4-1 as a chalk, and the over for Washington is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-2 as a pup and 6-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN DIEGO

Tennessee (7-8, 6-9 ATS) at Seattle (5-10 SU and ATS)

Two teams with nothing on the line but pride wrap up the season when the Titans head to the Pacific Northwest for a non-conference contest with the Seahawks at Qwest Field.

Tennessee, which rebounded from an 0-6 SU start this season (1-5 ATS), had its slim playoff hopes halted in a 42-17 blowout home loss to San Diego as a three-point chalk last week. It was the Titans’ fourth ATS setback in their last five games. About all Tennessee has to play for this week is trying to get stud RB Chris Johnson a 2,000-yard rushing season. Johnson has 1,872 yards (5.8 ypc), more than 500 yards ahead of second-place Steven Jackson (1,353).

Seattle also got belted last Sunday, losing 48-10 at Green Bay as a 13½-point underdog for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback – by a combined total score of 96-24.

These teams last met in 2005, with Seattle notching a 28-24 road win, but Tennessee covered as a seven-point ‘dog. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

The Titans are on a 10-3 ATS run against losing teams and are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk, but along with their current 1-4 ATS skid, they are on pointspread purges of 2-7 after an ATS loss, 2-6 after a SU setback, 3-8 laying points and 3-7-1 in January. The Seahawks have covered in five of their last seven against losing teams, but they are on ATS plunges of 4-10 overall and 1-9 as an underdog.

Tennessee sports “over” streaks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 as a favorite and 39-19-1 following a SU loss, and the over is 7-3-1 in Seattle’s last 11 following a SU loss and 7-3 in its last 10 after an ATS defeat. However, the under for Seattle is on runs of 4-1 at Qwest and 6-2 with the Seahawks a home pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Cincinnati (10-5, 7-8 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (8-7 SU and ATS)

The Bengals, already assured of either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the AFC playoffs, face a Jets squad that must win in order to reach the postseason.

Cincinnati snapped a two-game SU skid with a 17-10 home victory over Kansas City on Sunday, but it fell well short as a 13-point chalk, its fifth ATS setback in the last six games. Regardless of the outcome against the Jets, the Bengals will have a home game on wild-card weekend, so coach Marvin Lewis might look to limit his starters.

New York got a big break at previously unbeaten Indianapolis last week, posting a 29-15 win as a three-point road pup, after Colts coach Jim Caldwell opted to pull his stars in the third quarter while leading 15-10. The Jets have rebounded from a 1-6 SU and ATS nosedive, going 4-1 SU and ATS in their last five games to gain control of their own destiny in the race for the playoffs.

These teams have met each of the last two seasons, splitting SU and ATS, with the home team winning and covering each time. In October 2007, Cincy won 38-31 as a six-point chalk, and in October 2008, New York won 26-14 giving 9½ points.

Despite their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Bengals still carry positive ATS streaks of 9-1 as an underdog, 5-1 as a road pup and 7-1 against winning teams. The Jets have gone 1-4 SU and ATS in their last five home games (all as a chalk), but along with their current 4-1 ATS run, they’ve gone 9-4 ATS in their last 13 Week 17 outings.

The SU winner has cashed in all 15 games for the Jets this year and is on a 17-0 overall run, and the underdog is 14-1 in the Bengals’ 15 outings this year.

Cincinnati, with one of the league’s top defenses yielding just 16.9 ppg (fifth), is on “under” rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 after a SU win, 6-2 in the AFC, 9-3 in regular-season finales and 5-2 as a pup. Similarly, New York is on “under” runs of 4-1-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-1 after either a SU or an ATS win and 3-1-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS and UNDER

Betting Week 17
By Bodog

You wouldn’t know it, but the final week of the NFL’s regular season is one most special times of the year. Most teams have not a lot left to play for as they’re either already eliminated from the playoffs or have their spot in the postseason locked up. That means teams will most likely rest up, while others will desperately be trying to get into the playoffs in their final shot of the year. Every Week 17 matchup has to be framed in these terms before a sharp bet can be made.

Since the teams still in contention have no reason to lay down, they’ll be much easier to handicap. We’ll focus on said teams in this week’s betting preview.

Pittsburgh at Miami

The defending champion Steelers are still alive at 8-7 (4-10-1 ATS), beating Green Bay (-2.5) and Baltimore (-3) at home despite not helping the bettors that backed them to cover. But at least two of the other four teams in the AFC Wild Card hunt at 8-7 will have to lose for Pittsburgh to make the postseason. And because of tiebreakers, it has to be the right combination of losers, like the Texans and Ravens. It could definitely happen.

The situation is much grimmer for the Dolphins at 7-8 (8-7 ATS). They not only need to win on Sunday, but have to have the Texans, Ravens, Jets and Jaguars all lose. Houston and Jacksonville both start at 1:00 p.m., so there will be some scoreboard watching at Dolphin Stadium. This is a tough spot for a beaten-up Miami squad that saw both RG Justin Smiley and RT Vernon Carey knocked out of last week’s loss to Houston (+1). Their status for Week 17 remains uncertain. But Pittsburgh has its own key injuries (WR Hines Ward, SS Troy Polamalu), enough to keep this matchup off the NFL odds board as we went to press.

Philadelphia at Dallas

We know the identities of all six teams involved in the NFC playoffs; two of them are the Eagles (11-4 SU, 9-6 ATS) and Cowboys (10-5 SU, 8-7 ATS) from the NFC East. What we don’t know who will get the other first-round by in the NFC playoffs. Philadelphia is in control of the No. 2 seed and the week off that goes with it. The Cowboys can still win the division by beating Philly, but they also need both Minnesota and Arizona to lose if they want to avoid playing a Wild Card game. The Vikings play the New York Giants at 1:00 p.m.

The Cowboys are priced as 3-point favorites with a total of 47.5. When these two teams met at the Linc in Week 9, it was Dallas as a +3 dog walking away with a 20-16 victory, led by Tony Romo throwing for over 300 yards against one of the best pass defenses in the league. The Cowboys are better suited for defending the run, yet they still managed to pick Donovan McNabb off twice. That result might be hard to duplicate, although the Cowboys won’t have to contend with reliable C Jamaal Jackson, who went on injured reserve Tuesday with a torn ACL. Nick Cole will fill in at a relatively small 6-foot and 350 pounds.

Cincinnati at N.Y. Jets

The Jets (8-7 SU and ATS) have a pretty simple route to the playoffs: win and they’re in. The Bengals (10-5 SU, 7-8 ATS) just might gift-wrap that victory for New York after already clinching the AFC North. The same two teams would meet in the playoffs if the Jets win on Sunday, and while they have the best defense in the league according to efficiency, Mark Sanchez (12 TDs, 20 INTs) is having a very inconsistent rookie season. Keep in mind also that New York was losing to the Colts last week before Peyton Manning and the rest of the Indy starters were pulled from the game.

The Bengals could still move up to the No. 3 seed in the AFC depending on what happens in the afternoon, but the apparent value of intentionally losing to the Jets is enough to make New York a 10-point home favorite with a very low total of 35 points. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in the last five games for each side in this matchup; temperatures at Giants Stadium are expected in the low 20s for game time.

Week 17 NFL games

Sunday, January 3

Colts (14-1) @ Bills (5-10)-- Indy blew perfect season last week by pulling its starters with 15-10 lead in 3rd quarter, so doubt they try too hard here, in the meaningless finale. Hideous weather in western NY has total down to 32.5; if you thought Curtis Painter was awful at home vs Jets last week, wait until you see him on frozen tundra. Bills lost six of last eight games. scoring three TDs on last 45 drives (22 3/outs)- they're 2-5 at home, beating Tampa/Miami. Buffalo is just 14 of last 66 on 3rd down, 2-4-1 vs the spread as an underdog. Nine of last 11 Buffalo games stayed under total. Key question is how long Manning plays; I'm thinking not too long.

Saints (13-2) @ Panthers (5-8)-- Brees is #3 QB here, so Saints are mailing it in since they already have home field wrapped up thru NFC playoffs; they're 7-0 on road, with three of last four road wins by five or less points. Carolina won three of last four games, allowing five TDs on last 55 drives- they're 18 of last 32 on 3rd down. Saints scored 45 offensive TDs, 17 FGs in first 11 games, but in last four, scored only 10 TDs with nine FGAs, so lot of people nervous on Bourbon Street. Panthers covered seven of last nine games, have turnover ratio of +12 in last four. Saints won first matchup 30-20 five weeks ago, but Carolina had 182 rushing yards. Under is 5-1 in last six games for both sides.

Jaguars (7-8) @ Browns (4-11)-- Cleveland won last three games, covered last six; they didn't allow offensive TD in last two home games (24 drives); they've run ball for 685 yards in last three games, good for cold weather. Jaguars lost four of last five games, covered two of last nine; they're 2-5 on road, allowing 18 TDs on last 56 road drives, nine in last 16 drives overall. Jags covered one of last six as an underdog. Cleveland scored five TDs, tried six FGs on last 23 drives, major improvement. AFC South road teams are 10-7 vs spread; AFC North home teams are 9-10. Under is 5-1 in Jags' last six games, 4-1 in Browns' last five home contests.

Eagles (11-4) @ Cowboys (10-5)-- Winner takes NFC East; if Giants upset Vikings, Eagles are playing for bye next week, while Dallas would need more help to get that bye if they win. Cowboys won first meeting 20-16, forcing Eagles to start five of 10 drives 80+ yards from end zone (13-tard edge in FP). Cowboys won five of last six home games (Giants/Chargers beat them at home this year); they're 5-0 allowing less than 17 points, 5-5 otherwise. Eagles won last six games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three road games (10 TDs on their last 31 road drives)- they outscored last three opponents 70-27 in first half. NFC East home favorites are 0-6 against the spread in divisional games this year.

Bears (6-9) @ Lions (2-13)-- Huge trap game for Chicago after emotional OT win vs Vikings Monday night, just their second win in last eight games (1-7 vs spread); they crushed Lions 48-24 (-10) first meeting, outrushing Detroit 151-90, running kick back for TD (game was 21-21 at the half). Lions lost last five games, four by 10+ points; they're 2-5 at home, but 3-2 as a home underdog. Detroit scored only two offensive TDs on last 37 drives. Bears lost last five road games, scoring two TDs on last 41 road drives. Six of last seven Chicago games stayed under total. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in Bears' road games. Home underdogs are 1-3 vs spread in NFC North games this season.

Patriots (10-5) @ Texans (8-7)-- Brady said to be playing, which means other Patriots will too, but game means little to Pats, while Houston still has outside shot at playoff spot and can have first-ever winning season. Both teams won last three games, Patriots by combined score of 107-28- they allowed only 3 TDs on last 29 drives. Houston averaged 9.4/9.2/8.8 yards/pass attempt in last three games, but they're just 3-4 at home. Patriots are just 1-5 in true away games, winning at Buffalo. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Texan games, 5-0 in Patriots' last five contests. AFC South home favorites are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 8-6.

Steelers (8-7) @ Dolphins (7-8)-- Pitt won last four games by combined total of four points, after losing five games before that; they're 2-5 on road, beating Denver/Detroit. Steelers ran ball for average of just 62.8 yards/game last three weeks- they;ve become finesse team, un-Steerlike. Miami lost last two games by 3-7 points, getting outscored 44-9 in first half of those games, then falling short in comeback bids; they allowed 8.1+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games. Over is 7-3-2 in last dozen Miami games, 3-1 in Steelers' last four contests. Underdog is 6-0-1 vs spread in Steelers' last seven games; Pitt needs win plus help to get into playoffs and defend their championship.

Giants (8-7) @ Vikings (11-4)-- Minnesota is playing for bye next week; New Jersey is playing for pride. Giants are 3-7 in last 10 games after 5-0 start; they allowed 20 TDs on last 61 drives, lost three of last four on road, with losses all by 20+ points. Vikings are 7-0 at home, 4-2-1 as home favorite; their last four home wins are all by 17+ points. Giants are minus-7 in turnovers in their last five games, turning it over 13 times, but still scored 31+ points in three of last four games. Last four Giant games went over; six of last seven Minnesota tilts stayed under. NFC North home favorites are 5-8 vs spread, NFC East away underdogs are 2-3 in non-divisional games.

Bengals (10-5) @ Jets (8-7)-- Win and in for Jets; game means very little for Bengals; gametime temp expected to be 18- Sanchez threw one TD, eight INTs in first two cold weather games (none of his 16 college starts were colder than 55 degrees). Bengals didn't have anyone named to Pro Bowl though- Jets had three or four guys. Just have feeling Cincinnati won't go in tank in rare chance to play on national TV and impress future voters. Jets won four of last five, but scored only seven TDs on last 68 drives; they ran ball for 181.3 yds/game in last four weeks. Bengals lost last five times they allowed more than 14; they are 6-1 vs spread as dog. Underdogs are 13-1 vs spread in Cincinnati games.

49ers (7-8) @ Rams (1-14)-- Singletary trying for non-losing season; St Louis benefits from a loss, clinching 1st pick in draft (Nebraska defensive stud Suh). 49ers won first meeting 35-0 in Week 4 (-9), holding Rams to 177 yards and nine FDs, but game was scoreless until fluke TD on muffed punt just before half. Home teams are 8-3 vs spread in NFC West games (home dogs 2-1). San Francisco changed kickers for this game; Niners lost last six road games (10 for 67 on 3rd down), with five losses by six or less points- they're 4-2-1 as a fave this season. Rams lost last seven games, are 5-3 vs spread in last eight; they covered three of last four home games, losing by 5-8-10-3. St Louis is 14-29 on 3rd down last two games, as 3rd-string QB Null is a slight improvement.

Falcons (8-7) @ Buccaneers (3-12)-- Atlanta win or tie clinches consecutive winning seasons for first time in 44-year history of franchise; Falcons allowed one TD on 23 drives in winning last two games (10-7/31-3); they're 2-5 away from home (beat 49ers/Jets). Atlanta won first meeting 20-17 (-12); Redman was sacked six times by Bucs. Good sign for Tampa; they won last couple of games, outscoring foes 38-0 in second half (were outscored 43-6 in first half of last three contests). Home teams just 4-6 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Last five Falcon games, last six Buc games all stayed under total. Bucs are 1-5 at home, with four losses by 13 or more points.

Packers (10-5) @ Cardinals (10-5)-- Arizona playing for bye if Minnesota gets upset by Giants; otherwise, its Leinart Time and glorified preseason game as Flynn expected to play for Packers. These teams could play each other again next weekend in playoffs. Green Bay won six of last seven games, losing only at Heinz when Big Ben passed for 503 yards; they've scored 22 TDs on last 68 drives, have to consider themselves playoff-ready. Pack is 4-3 on road, but best team they've beaten on road is Chicago. Redbirds won last three at home, scoring 31-30-31 points (11 TDs on last 35 home drives); they scored eight TDs in last nine red zone drives. Five of last six Green Bay tilts went under.

Chiefs (3-12) @ Broncos (8-7)-- Denver has internal issues, as Marshall and Scheffler benched in game that could still decide playoff spot; Broncos won first meeting 44-13 at Arrowhead in Week 13 (-4.5), running for 254 yards in game where Cassel averaged just 2.8 yards/pass attempt. Home teams are just 2-9 vs spread in AFC West divisional games. Chiefs not ending season well, allowing 235 rushing yards/game in last four weeks; they've been outscored in second half of last five games 86-38 and have 13 giveaways in last five games. KC is 6-4 vs spread in last 10 games as underdog. Denver is 2-6 in last eight games, 4-3 SU at home, with only two wins by more than seven points.

Ravens (8-7) @ Raiders (5-11)-- Baltimore in playoffs with win; they're 1-5 in last six road games (won at Cleveland), but 6-3 vs spread as favorite. Ravens have six wins by 14+ points. Oakland is 5-1 vs spread in game following its last six losses, but seven of their last nine losses are by 14+ points. Raiders are 2-5 at home, with three losses by 20+ points- they've had 45 penalties for 376 yards in last four games. Seven of last nine Baltimore games stayed under total; three of last four Raider games went over. AFC North road favorites are 1-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West home dogs are 7-4. Baltimore has had more penalty yardage than its opponents in 11 of 15 games this season.

Redskins (4-11) @ Chargers (12-3)-- Game means nothing to San Diego, so Rivers will make cameo; Volek will play most of game. Redskins just played national TV games with rivals Giants/Cowboys, don't figure to have interest in this one, especially with franchise cleaning house next week. Washington was outscored 38-0 in first half of last two games, but they're 5-2 vs spread on the road, 4-1 as road dogs. Only once this year have Redskins lost by more than 6 points on road. Over is 7-2 in last nine Washington games, 4-1 in San Diego's last five games. NFC East road underdogs are 2-3 vs spread in non-divsional games. Chargers won last 10 games, covered six of last eight.

Titans (7-8) @ Seahawks (5-10)-- Tennessee can finish .500 after 0-6 disaster at start of season; they're also trying to get Johnson to 2,000 rushing yards and as far up record charts as possible. Three of last four Titan wins are by exactly three points- their last three games all went over total. Seattle was outscored in last three games by combined score of 106-24- they're 0-8 as underdog in '09, as favorites are 12-2 vs spread in Seattle games this season. Despite success in second half of season, Titans are still 2-5 on road (beat 49ers/Jets), 0-1 as road favorite. Effort or lack thereof is why I like Tennessee in this game; they'll be out to get Johnson some records. Seattle doesn't figure to resist much.

Tips and Trends

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Eagles: Philadelphia is playing their best football of the season, having won 6 consecutive games SU in route to an 11-4 SU record. The Eagles are 5-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. The Eagles are 1-2 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Philadelphia has scored at least 27 PTS over their last 5 games. For the entire season, the Eagles are 3rd in the NFL in scoring at 28.6 PPG. QB Donovan McNabb is looking to play better against Dallas, as he had his lowest QB rating of the season against the Cowboys in Week 9. WRs DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin have combined for 112 receptions and 13 TDs this season. The young WR duo are gamebreakers, as they stretch out opposing defensive coverages. The Eagles have played good defense on the road, as only 2 of their 7 opponents have scored more than 20 PTS against them. The Eagles are 4th in the NFL in both INTs and sacks this season.

Eagles are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - S Quintin Demps (ankle) is probable.
QB Michael Vick (quad) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (Side of the Day)

Cowboys (-3, O/U 47): The NFC East title goes to the winner of this game today. The Cowboys have already beaten the Eagles SU this season as 3 point underdogs in Philadelphia. Dallas is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS at home this season. The Cowboys are 4-6 ATS as a single digit favorite this year. The Cowboys offense moves the ball up and down the field at will, averaging 394 YPG, which is 3rd most in the NFL. Unfortunately for them, 14 teams average more PPG than Dallas and their 22.5 PPG. QB Tony Romo has thrown for more than 4,150 YDS with 24 TDs against 8 INTs on the season. WR Miles Austin continues to be one of the best WRs in football, as he has at least 90 YDS receiving in 4 of his past 5 games with 4 TDs. The Cowboys defense is coming off a shutout of the Redskins and have only allowed 2 teams to score more than 21 PTS against them all season long.

Cowboys are 1-6 ATS last 7 games in January.
Under is 7-1 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - S Pat Watkins (knee) is questionable.
T Marc Colombo (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21

New England Patriots at Houston Texans

Patriots: This game is absolutely meaningless for the Patriots, as they are locked in their playoff seeding since winning the AFC East last week. Because of this factor, the Patriots are likely to limit minutes to nearly all starters. The Patriots have won 3 straight games coming into today, limiting all 3 opponents to 10 PTS or fewer. New England has won only 1 true road game this season, going 1-5 SU and 1-4-1 ATS on the season. This will be the 3rd time this season the Patriots have been the listed underdog, losing both games SU and not winning either game ATS. QB Tom Brady has thrown for more than 4,200 YDS with 28 TDs this season while completing better than 65% of his passes. WR Wes Welker has been arguably the best WR in football, with 122 receptions for 1,336 YDS, both of which rank him in the top 2 in the NFL. The Patriots defense is only allowing 16.7 PPG, which is the 3rd best in the NFL.

Patriots are 8-2 ATS last 10 games in Week 17.
Under is 7-1 last 8 road games.

Key Injuries - DT Vince Wilfork (elbow) is questionable.
T Nick Kaczur (head) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Texans (-8, O/U 46): Houston will come out extremely motivated today, as they have an outside chance of making the playoffs for the 1st time in franchise history with a win. The Texans have won 3 consecutive games SU to keep their playoff hopes alive. Houston has not played well at home, as they are only 3-4 SU and 2-4-1 ATS on the season. The Texans are only 3-5-1 as the listed favorite this year. QB Matt Schaub leads the entire NFL in passing yards with 4,467. His main target is WR Andre Johnson, who has caught an NFL high 1,504 receiving YDS making this duo the best pass catching duo in the game. This Texans offense averages nearly 380 YPG, which is the 5th most in the NFL. Defensively, the Texans are playing their best stretch of football as they've held 3 straight opponents to 20 PTS or less.

Texans are 14-5 ATS last 19 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Under is 10-2 last 12 games following a ATS win.

Key Injuries - RB Steve Slaton (neck) is out.
DB Eugene Wilson (toe) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

SNF - Bengals at Jets
By Kevin Rogers

The final game of the NFL regular season is also the last contest ever at the Meadowlands when the Jets host the Bengals. There will plenty of interest in this game with the sixth and final AFC playoff berth on the line. Cincinnati has the AFC North title wrapped up, but the Bengals' seeding is still in question heading into this game.

The Jets seemed out of the playoff race following a Week 15 home loss to the Falcons. New York was bundled up with five other teams at 7-7, with games against two division leaders to conclude the season. The Jets were the benefactor of the undefeated Colts pulling their starters in the third quarter of New York's 29-15 victory last Sunday in Indianapolis. The Colts' brass was criticized for not only denying their team a shot to finish the regular season 16-0, but keeping the door open for the Jets to qualify for the postseason.

The same situation will likely come up again this Sunday with the Bengals trying to rest a majority of their starters, including quarterback Carson Palmer. Cincinnati slipped past Kansas City at home last Sunday, as the Bengals finished the regular season 0-7 ATS as a favorite. Luckily for Marvin Lewis' squad, they are an underdog this week, but obviously the circumstances dictate the long number.

Rex Ryan's team began the season as one of the league's best stories, winning their first three games. The Jets proceeded to go on a 1-6 SU/ATS run, with the lone victory coming in the Mark Sanchez "hot dog" game in Oakland back in Week 7. New York has managed to take control the last five weeks, responding with a 4-1 SU/ATS stretch to position themselves for a playoff berth.

The Jets have been very and up and down when laying points this season, compiling a 5-5 ATS record. New York is a money-burning 1-3 ATS as a favorite of at least 5 ½ points, while going 1-4 ATS since last October as a touchdown 'chalk' or higher.

The running game has lifted the Jets all season long, leading the league with nearly 167 yards a contest on the ground. The Bengals are not far behind, ranking sixth in the rushing department at 132.3 yards/game. It helps when each team possesses a top ten running back in the league, with New York's Thomas Jones racking up 1324 yards and 12 touchdowns, while Cincinnati's Cedric Benson has piled up a career-best 1251 yards.

The defenses aren't bad either, with the Jets ranking first and the Bengals placing fourth in total defense. However, that has not made these two clubs automatic 'under' plays. Cincinnati has finished 'under' the total in nine of 15 games, but the majority of those 'unders' have come at home (six of eight). The Jets have seen the 'under' hit in eight of 15 contests, including three straight 'unders' cashing with the total listed at 37 ½ or less.

The Bengals will be thrilled that Giants Stadium is closing, as Cincinnati is 0-5 SU the last five meetings in New Jersey dating back to 1992. Granted that time frame is skewed since we're including the horrible Cincinnati teams of the 1990's, but the Bengals did fall to the Jets last season, 26-14. New York covered as 9½-point favorites, however, that was at the height of the Brett Favre renaissance with the Jets, while Palmer missed the game due to injury.

VI capper Joe Nelson says that in spite of the Bengals resting starters, their defense can keep the game close, "Going on the road could be a tough way to close out the year, but the Bengals defense will make it hard to cover a near double-digit spread that could inflate even further. The Jets win and they're in, but that is rarely the slam-dunk situation it is expected to be, especially taking a turnover prone rookie QB into a big game against a quality defense. The Bengals can still play for the #3 spot in the AFC which has some importance and this does not look like a team that will lie down and surrender in this situation."

Nelson feels the Jets will count on their bread-and-butter rushing attack, "New York is not a team that can score a lot of points and with a ball control offense this should be a lower scoring game, magnifying the very large spread. The Bengals may lift some key players to get ready for next week's game, but this should still be a competitive effort and a game that is likely decided by less than a touchdown either way."

Randy Scott, the sportsbook director at BetED says it's a tough task to book games the final week of the season, "This is a very difficult time of year to hold a number. Situations can change dramatically, the books use a reactionary approach to the money coming in and moving the line. You'll see numerous changes to the pointspread right up until game time in an attempt to slow down heavy one-way action."

The early action according to Scott is on the favored Jets, with the wise action on the 'under' and New York.

The Jets are currently listed as 9½-point home favorites, with the total listed at 34 at most shops. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and will be televised nationally on NBC.

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