Plethora of 2-2 Teams
By Kevin Rogers
The first quarter of the NFL season is in the books as 28 of 32 teams have played four games so far. It's been tough to separate the great teams from the mediocre ones as only one club, Kansas City, is undefeated at 3-0. Thirteen teams sit at 2-2 through four weeks as the reigning AFC Champion Colts own the same record as the Rams, who finished with just one win last season. Let's take a look at the seven 2-2 teams with early kickoffs and if they can get over that .500 hump.
Chiefs at Colts (-8, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
Kansas City has been the biggest surprise in the NFL after winning its first three games. The Chiefs return from the bye week to battle a Colts' squad that is coming off its second road divisional loss at Jacksonville. After Indianapolis fell at Houston the opening week, the Colts responded with a 38-14 thrashing of the Giants.
The Colts will try to repeat that effort against a Chiefs' team that hasn't allowed more than 14 points in a game. Kansas City has been a short underdog in each victory, as the Chiefs' passing game lit up the Niners thanks to Matt Cassel's 250 yards and three touchdown tosses. Indianapolis will have to slow down Kansas City's running game after the Colts have allowed over 420 yards on the ground in losses at Houston and Jacksonville.
The Chiefs are 6-3 ATS as a road underdog under Todd Haley, including covers in six of their last seven opportunities in this spot. The Colts own a 5-3 ATS mark since the start of last season as a home favorite of six points or more, while going 9-4 ATS since January 2007 at home against non-division opponents in the AFC.
Broncos at Ravens (-7, 39) - 1:00 PM EST
Denver heads back out east for the third time this season as the Broncos go for their first two-game winning streak since last November. The Broncos battle the 3-1 Ravens, who needed a last-minute touchdown to knock off the previously unbeaten Steelers. Baltimore's offense has struggled to get in the end zone consistently through the first month, scoring 17 points or less in three games.
For as much as the Ravens' offense has struggled at times, the defense has shouldered the load by not allowing more than 17 points in a game this season. Baltimore has hit the 'under' in three games, but is 0-2 ATS when laying points. Even though the Ravens didn't cover as double-digit favorites against the Browns, Baltimore is 10-4 ATS in the John Harbaugh era as home 'chalk.'
Denver's Kyle Orton is surprisingly atop the yardage leaderboard among quarterbacks, throwing for 1419 yards. The Broncos have needed to make up for running back Knowshon Moreno's injury, forcing Denver to air it out. The problem has been consistency through four games, as the Broncos have scored 17 or less in two losses, but 26 or more in two victories. Since covering its first four games to start last season, Denver is just 3-7 ATS the last 10 games as an underdog.
Packers (-2½, 44) at Redskins - 1:00 PM EST
Green Bay allowed 431 yards in a 28-26 victory over Detroit, holding the Lions to four field goals in the second half. Two of Green Bay's wins are against a pair of teams that are a combined 0-8 (Lions and Bills), as the Pack hits the highway to the Nation's Capital. The Redskins are one of three 2-2 NFC East squads, looking to capitalize off last week's 17-12 road underdog win over the Eagles.
The Packers can throw the ball all over the field, but after the loss of Ryan Grant, the running game has taken a huge hit. Since rushing for 132 yards in the season opener at Philadelphia, the Packers haven't run for over 92 yards in a game in any of their last three contests. Green Bay owns a solid 7-2 ATS record the last four seasons as a road favorite off a win, but one of those losses came in Week 3 at Chicago.
The Redskins have won twice outright as an underdog against the Cowboys and Eagles, while pushing as three-point 'dogs in an overtime loss to the Texans. Washington's offense will be without Clinton Portis, who suffered a groin injury against Philadelphia and is expected to miss four to six weeks. The Redskins have been outgained in each game, but have limited Dallas and Philadelphia to 19 combined points in two wins.
Jaguars (-1, 41) at Bills - 1:00 PM EST
Jacksonville pulled off the biggest shocker last week with Josh Scobee's field goal at the gun as the Jags knocked off the Colts as substantial home underdogs. The Bills remained winless after getting blown out at home by the Jets, Buffalo's third loss to a 3-1 team. Chan Gailey's team tries to get in the win column for the first time this season as the Bills parted ways with former first-round pick Marshawn Lynch this week, trading the running back to Seattle.
The Jags haven't been a solid play since the start of last season on the road off a home win, owning a 1-5 ATS mark. Both teams have been outgained in each game this season, while Jacksonville has allowed 28 points or more in each of its last three contests. This is Jacksonville's first trip to Orchard Park since 2006, as the Jags have beaten the Bills in two of the previous three meetings.
The Bills' offense has failed to produce, putting up 14 points or less in three of four losses, while allowing 34 points or more in each of the last three weeks. Buffalo has tallied less than 17 points in 10 of its last 14 games dating back to last season, resulting in eight 'unders.'
Bucs at Bengals (-6½, 38) - 1:00 PM EST
Cincinnati may have plenty of big names on offense, but the Bengals slipped on a banana peel last week in Northern Ohio with a loss to previously winless Cleveland. The Bengals return home to host another non-playoff team from a year ago when the Bucs come off the bye and invade Paul Brown Stadium.
Tampa Bay crashed back down to Earth with its blowout loss to Pittsburgh following wins over Cleveland and Carolina. The Bucs will improve eventually, but the offense needs to pick up after scoring 17 points or less in two of three games. Tampa Bay has covered five of its last six games as a road 'dog dating back to last November, including the Week 2 victory at Carolina.
Cincinnati owns a dreadful 1-9 ATS mark the last 10 opportunities as a favorite, including last week's defeat at Cleveland as 1 ½-point 'chalk.' The Bengals are 6-3-1 SU the previous 10 home games against NFC opponents since 2005, but have covered just four times.
Giants at Texans (-3, 47½) - 1:00 PM EST
New York plays its third AFC South opponent in four weeks as the Giants make their first trip to Houston since 2002. The Giants knocked out Jay Cutler in last Sunday's 17-3 victory over the Bears, sacking the quarterback nine times before he left the game with a concussion. That win struck some life into New York, who had dropped double-digit decisions the previous two weeks to Indianapolis and Tennessee.
With the Colts, Titans, and Jaguars all at 2-2, the Texans sit atop the AFC South with a 3-1 mark following last week's road triumph at Oakland. Houston was able to put up over 30 points for the third time this season, as its top receiver Andre Johnson missed the Raiders game with an ankle injury. The Texans have been a terrific 'over' play, hitting three times as the defense has given up at least 24 points in each game.
For the exception of a strong second half against Carolina, the Giants' offense has struggled to put up points by scoring 17 or less in each of the past three games. New York has compiled a 14-7 ATS mark since 2006 as a road underdog, while the Giants lost in their only opportunity in this role at Indianapolis.
Rams at Lions (-3, 43) - 1:00 PM EST
The only win St. Louis picked up last season was at Ford Field, 17-10 over Detroit. Things have changed for the positive this season under rookie Sam Bradford as the Rams have doubled their win total after a Week 4 blowout of Seattle. The Rams play only their second road game of the season as they head to the Motor City to battle the winless Lions.
St. Louis is 5-2 ATS the last seven games as a single-digit road underdog, including a Week 2 cover as three-point 'dogs at Oakland. The Rams are winning with defense, limiting opponents to 17 points or less in all four games, resulting in three 'unders.'
Detroit has turned into a good pointspread play despite its 0-4 mark, covering three times. The Lions outgained the Packers by 170 yards last week, but their inability to get in the end zone resulted in Detroit's 20th straight loss in the state of Wisconsin. Being listed as a favorite is not favorable for Lions' backers, as Detroit is 2-7-1 ATS when laying points since 2006.
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NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 5
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Why Jaguars cover: Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The Bills are still unsure who their quarterback should be. Ryan Fitzpatrick is on a short leash.
Why Bills cover: In 17 road games since the start of the 2008 season, David Garrard has thrown only 11 touchdown passes while being intercepted 17 times.
Total (41): One team has a quarterback that doesn't play well on the road, the other has a quarterback that doesn't play well at all. This could be a snoozer.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-9)
Why Chiefs cover: They are winning with a run game that ranks third in the NFL and a run defense that is holding opponents to only 75 yards on the ground per game.
Why Colts cover: The Chiefs are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Total (44): Kansas City struggles to stop opponents through the air and Indianapolis struggles to stop opponents on the ground. Both defenses will have their weaknesses exposed.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7)
Why Buccaneers cover: They have won five consecutive games straight up at Cincinnati, which is having a hard time running the ball with Cedric Benson. He is averaging only 3.3 yard per attempt this season.
Why Bengals cover: The Buccaneers offense in only putting up 16.7 points per game, which ranks 25th in the league.
Total (38): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins (+3)
Why Packers cover: They're 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Clinton Portis is out with a groin injury.
Why Redskins cover: Linebacker Nick Barnett and safety Nick Collins might be out for a Green Bay defense that is already allowing and NFC-high 5.2 yards per carry.
Total (44): Aaron Rodgers should have no problem posting points against a Redskins defense that is allowing 305 passing yards per game.
St. Louis Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)
Why Rams cover: Sam Bradford is the real deal and will get to test a Lions defense that is allowing 26.5 points per game.
Why Lions cover: With three losses by a combined 10 points, Detroit has played almost everyone close this season.
Total (43): Neither team has a very good defense. If the offenses get rolling they could surpass the posted total.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (+1.5)
Why Bears cover: Carolina will be without leading receiver Steve Smith, who suffered an ankle injury last week.
Why Panthers cover: The Bears, who will be without quarterback Jay Cutler due to a concussion, are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (35): Under is 9-2 in the Panthers' last 11 games and 9-3 in the Bears' last 12 games.
New York Giants at Houston Texans (-3)
Why Giants cover: With both Andre Johnson (ankle) and Jacoby Jones (calf) questionable for Sunday, the Giants will be able to focus more on trying to stop Arian Foster and the Texans' powerful run game.
Why Texans cover: They will get Rookie of the Year linebacker Brian Cushing back from his suspension for testing positive for performance enhancing drugs.
Total (47.5): Both of these teams can put up points in a hurry.
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Why Broncos cover: Their offense leads the NFL in passing yards while Baltimore is struggling to run the ball, averaging just over 80 yards per game.
Why Ravens cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Broncos are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in Baltimore.
Total (39.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns (+3)
Why Falcons cover: They ranks sixth in the NFL in total offense and are holding opponents to only 15 points per game.
Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis is taking pressure off the passing game and allowing the Browns to control the clock. In his last two games, he has amassed 246 rushing yards and two touchdowns.
Total (41): Under is 8-2 in the Falcons' last 10 games.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)
Why Saints cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. The Cardinals will start undrafted rookie free agent Max Hall at quarterback.
Why Cardinals cover: New Orleans has suffered multiple injuries to their secondary and running backs. The Saints are only averaging 19.8 points per game this season.
Total (46.5): Over is 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Why Titans cover: Chris Johnson has had his most productive games against teams that employ a 3-4 defense, like Dallas.
Why Cowboys cover: Tennessee plays undisciplined and is tied atop the NFL with 37 penalties for a league-high 344 yards.
Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the Titans' last four road games and 11-3 in the Cowboys last 14 games overall.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+5.5)
Why Chargers cover: They're 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings in Oakland. Favorite is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Oakland will be without the NFL's third leading rusher, Darren McFadden because of a hamstring injury.
Why Raiders cover: They have one of the best pass defenses in the league. They could keep this game close by limiting Philip Rivers and Co. through the air and making the Chargers move downfield via the run game.
Total (44.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers (-3)
Why Eagles cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Alex Smith has been terrible this season and is already in danger of losing his job as the Niners' starting quarterback.
Why 49ers cover: LeSean McCoy and Michael Vick are out with injured ribs and the Eagles' offense is much more conservative with Kevin Kolb behind center.
Total (38): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Minnesota Vikings at New York Jets (-4.5)
Why Vikings cover: The addition of Randy Moss gives Brett Favre a legitimate big-play threat, that will draw double teams and prevent opposing defenses from stacking the box to stop Adrian Peterson.
Why Jets cover: Santonio Holmes will return from his suspension and give Mark Sanchez a wide receiver who can stretch the field and create mismatches in the end zone.
Total (37.5): Over is 4-1 in the Vikings' last five games and 4-1 in the Jets' last five games.
Gridiron Angles - Week 5
By Vince Akins
Buccaneers at Bengals - The Buccaneers is 9-0 ATS (15.7 ppg) since October 13, 1996 when they lost by 21+ last game on normal rest. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since October 05, 2003 after playing on the road versus the Browns. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since December 22, 2002 at home the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 10, 1989 as a 7+ favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Buccaneers are 8-0-1 OU (14.1 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog the week after their bye. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-9.6 ppg) since December 02, 2001 after playing on the road versus the Browns. The Bengals are 0-6 OU (-10.7 ppg) since October 22, 2006 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week.
Jaguars at Bills - The Jaguars are 0-12-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since December 19, 1999 when their game went over by 10+ points last game and the total was at least 40.5. The Bills are 0-7 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since October 15, 2000 as a favorite the week after in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Bills are 6-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since October 20, 2002 when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The League is 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since September 27, 2009 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Bills are 7-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30.
Falcons at Browns - The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Browns are 10-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 18, 2005 as a dog when their ats margin increased over each of their past two games. The Browns are 9-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since September 22, 2002 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents. The Falcons are 0-7 OU (-5.5 ppg) since December 02, 2001 the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-8.0 ppg) since October 18, 1992 within 3 of pick at home after playing at home as a dog.
Saints at Cardinals - The Saints are 0-9 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since December 06, 2009 after playing as a favorite. The Saints are 6-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since November 20, 2005 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 24, 2005 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing. The Cardinals are 10-0 OU (15.6 ppg) since October 12, 2003 as a dog the week after a loss in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.
Chiefs at Colts - Teams are 9-0 ATS since 2008 when they allowed 10+ points less than expecte before a bye last week. The Colts are 0-7 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since October 29, 1995 as a 7+ favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Colts are 0-6 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since December 03, 2000 when they lost 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Colts are 0-8 OU (-11.6 ppg) since November 25, 2004 when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.
Titans at Cowboys - The Titans are 0-12 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since November 5, 2000 when they committed 10+ penalties last week and were up after three quarters. The League is 0-9 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since November 04, 2007 as a road dog the week before playing on Monday Night on the road. The Titans are 0-8 ATS (-20.9 ppg) since November 23, 2008 when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-21.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 0-10 ATS (-11.1 ppg) since November 11, 1993 when they were tied at the end of the first quarter last game and went on to cover by at least 14 points.
Eagles at 49ers - The Eagles are 6-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since September 24, 2000 within 3 of pick on the road when they lost 1-3 points last week. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 15, 2007 at home versus any team with more wins. The Eagles are 9-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 8-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since November 26, 2006 on the road after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The 49ers are 8-0-1 OU (8.9 ppg) since September 14, 1997 as a home favorite after playing on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games.
Rams at Lions - The Rams are 11-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) when they covered by 14+ points last game on normal rest. The Lions are 0-9-1 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since November 10, 1991 as a favorite after playing on the road as a TD+ dog. The Rams are 7-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since December 27, 1998 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since November 04, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 6-0 OU (15.5 ppg) since October 09, 2005 as a home favorite after a straight up loss.
Bears at Panthers - The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since December 04, 1995 within 3 of pick on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Bears are 6-0-1 ATS (10.2 ppg) since November 19, 2006 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins. The Panthers are 12-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since October 15, 1995 when they covered by at least a TD last week with 28 minutes of possession time or fewer. The Panthers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 15, 1995 within 3 of pick at home after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since December 22, 2007 when their dps was negative in their last two games. The League is 13-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 02, 2007 within 3 of pick on the road after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. The Bears are 0-8-2 OU (-8.7 ppg) since December 10, 1995 as a favorite the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road. The Panthers are 0-8 OU (-8.2 ppg) since December 21, 2003 at home when their dps was negative in their last two games.
Chargers at Raiders - The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 14, 1993 as a favorite when they are 500 after a straight up win. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (6.5 ppg) since December 10, 1989 on the road the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The Raiders are 7-0 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Raiders are 8-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 as a dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date.
Broncos at Ravens - The Broncos are 9-0-2 ATS (9.2 ppg) since October 18, 1992 as a dog when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (13.3 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a home favorite when they won by 1-3 points last week. The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-7.1 ppg) since December 07, 2008 as a favorite after a straight up win. The Broncos are 0-6 OU (-6.8 ppg) since November 24, 1991 on the road after a straight up win on the road as a dog.
Packers at Redskins - The Packers are 10-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 01, 1997 the week after a straight up win in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties. The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a road favorite versus any team with fewer wins, after a straight up win at home. The League is 0-10 OU (-9.8 ppg) since September 27, 2009 as a dog when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The Redskins are 0-6 OU (-5.2 ppg) since October 16, 1994 as a dog the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average.
Giants at Texans - The Giants are 8-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.1 ppg) since October 24, 1999 when they are 500 after a straight up win at home. The Giants are 7-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 03, 2006 the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 6-0 OU (17.1 ppg) since September 20, 2009 as a dog. The Texans are 8-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since November 19, 2006 when their completion percentage decreased in each of their last two games.
Vikings at Jets - The Vikings are 0-9 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since December 05, 2004 on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Jets are 0-9 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since October 03, 1993 at home when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 14, 2007 at home after playing on the road in each of the previous two weeks. The Vikings are 9-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since October 06, 1991 on the road when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Jets are 0-6-1 OU (-9.6 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a favorite when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win.
NFL Week 5 Analysis
Broncos (2-2) @ Ravens (3-1) - Stats can drive you nuts; Ravens are 10-4 as home favorite since ’08, are a ridiculous 27-6-1 as non-divisional HF since 2000, but are 2-9 vs spread the week after playing Steelers the last five years. Home team won seven of last eight series games; Broncos lost last four visits here by average score of 28-9. Ravens (-7) have worst turnover margin in NFL, but have best 3rd down defense (12-51, 23.5%). Denver has run ball for just 55 yards/game. Hosts allowed only four TDs on 43 drives, forcing 17 3/outs; three of the four TDs they gave up came on drives of 83+ yards, so they make you earn it. Average total in last four series games, 26.8. Denver is 4-3 as road underdog under McDaniels.
Jaguars (2-2) @ Bills (0-4) - Huge trap game for Jags, who upset Colts last week, have home Monday nighter with Titans on deck; they scored 24-31 points in wins, 13-3 in losses. Buffalo allowed 34-38-38 points in last three games (14 TDs on 32 drives), giving up 200-273 rushing yards last two weeks. Bills are 5-12-1 vs. spread in last 18 home games. Jags got waxed 38-13 by Chargers in only road game so far; they lost last four road games by combined score of 106-40. Bills are 12-46 on 3rd down (30th in NFL), have -5 turnover ratio (T28th). Visitors are 6-4 in series, with four of last five meetings decided by 4 or less points. Three of four Jaguar games went over total. Tough to endorse Buffalo in any scenario where they’re not getting points.
Chiefs (3-0) @ Colts (2-2) -My 84-year old dad asks, “How can a 2-2 team be giving a 3-0 team 8.5 points?” Fair question, but Indy played three of first four games on road- they crushed a good Giant team 38-14 in only home game so far, but are still just 6-10 as home favorite since start of ’08 season. Colts allowed 257-174 rushing yards in their two losses, 120-47 in their wins. Chiefs ran ball for 135-140-207 yards in first three wins, and allowed only five TDs on 38 opponents’ drives so far- they also didn’t score an offensive TD in only road game (16-14 win at Browns), but are 15-9 as road underdog since 2007. Colts are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last four played here by 4-8-15-3 points. Elements of Patriot-Colt rivalry at work here (Crennel/Weis Chief coordinators).
Rams (2-2) @ Lions (0-4) - St Louis was 1-15 last year; their lone win (17-10, +3.5) came here. Rams are 1-13 in last 14 road games, 10-14 as road dog since ’07- they’ve only allowed four offensive TDs on 47 opponent drives, and could run ball well vs Lion defense that allowed 162-183-92 rushing yards in last three games. Both teams are much improved in 2010, but only Rams have wins to show for it. Detroit outgained Packers 431-261 in Lambeau last week, but Woodson’s pick-6 allowed Pack to hold Lions off at end. Lions’ three losses are by 5-3-2 points. Rams outscored last two opponents 26-3 in second half; they’ve yet to trail (3-0-1) at halftime this year. Lions’ only two second half TDs came in last 5:00, when they trailed Eagles 35-17, getting backdoor cover. Detroit is 3-5-1 as home favorite since 2006.
Falcons (3-1) @ Browns (1-3) - Atlanta split pair of OT road games so far, then stole win at gun vs. 49ers last week; they didn’t score TD in only previous grass game (L9-15 at Pittsburgh) but are 14-7 vs spread when playing AFC team last 5+ years. AFC leads NFC 11-6 so far this season. Browns ran ball for 173-116 yards in splitting couple of tough division games last two weeks; they allowed 8.0/9.6 yards/pass attempt to Ravens/Bengals (Owens had 200+ receiving yards by himself last week) but not sure Falcons have explosive WRs to exploit that weakness. Birds are best when running ball (221-202 rushing yards in Weeks 2-3, 58-98 in Week 1 loss and last week’s escape). Atlanta outscored opponents 36-10 in second half of last three wins.
Buccaneers (2-1) @ Bengals (2-2) - Bengals played three of first four games on road; underdog is 17-3 vs spread in their last 20 home games (Cincy is 1-9 in last 10 games as home favorite). Bengals allowed 10-7 points in its two wins, 38-23 in two losses, with winner of turnover battle 4-0 in their games (they forced four turnovers in each win). Since 1995, Tampa Bay is 5-0 as underdog in game following its bye, winning last three SU by average score of 29-16. Bucs won last five series games, with three of wins by 3 or less points, but this is their first visit here since ’02. Bucs picked off pair of passes in each of their first three games. NFC South teams are 1-6-2 vs spread in non-divisional games so far in ’10, 0-3 as underdogs. Since 2005, Bengals are, however, 5-1 as favorite week after playing rival Cleveland.
Bears (3-1) @ Panthers (0-4) - Not sure what to make of collapse in Chicago’s pass protection (nine sacks in first half) Sunday night; Cutler either has concussion or he begged out of tough spot-- neither option is good. Winless Panthers have lame duck coach, rookie QB; they’re 6-23 on 3rd games in Clausen’s two starts, and were outscored 34-14 in first half of last three games. Home team won four of five series games; Bears lost both visits here, 24-14/20-17. Chicago ranks dead last in 3rd down conversions (10-47), scoring only one first half TD in last two games. 0-4 teams don’t have much home field advantage, but Bears have run ball for just 38-77-59 yards in last three games. Last three Carolina games, three of four Chicago games stayed under.
Packers (3-1) @ Redskins (2-2) - Washington defense won two games for them; Skins scored 13-17 points in their wins, completing less than half its passes both games- they allowed 30 points in both losses. Green Bay is 9-4 as road favorite since ’07; their last two games were decided by total of five points- Pack won 28-26 last week despite being outgained 431-261 by Lions. Packers are moving chains (20-43 on 3rd down, 5th in NFL), Redskins aren’t (11-44, 31st), which is why Skins lost field position battle in three of four games. Green Bay won last four series games by average score of 28-9, but this is just their second visit here since ’79. NFC East teams are 4-7 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Three of four Green Bay games stayed under the total.
Giants (2-2) @ Texans (3-1) - Houston gets star LB Cushing back here, opposing Giant team that scored 14-10-17 points in last three games, but beat Bears last week on strength of vicious pass rush (nine sacks in first half). Big Blue turned ball over 3+ times in each of first four games; hard to win that way. In their two wins, Giants started 9 of 26 drives in enemy territory; in their losses, 0 of 22. Houston opponents started only three of 41 drives on the Texan side of the field. These teams are 1-2 in NFL in running plays of 20+ yards (NJ 9, Hst 7); Texans lead NFL in rushing offense (172 ypg) are second in rush defense (70 ypg)- they missed Cushing, allowing 25.5 ppg in his absence. Home team won both series meetings (14-10 NJ/16-14 Hst).
Saints (3-1) @ Cardinals (2-2) - New Orleans routed Redbirds 45-14 on way to Super Bowl LY, but struggled on offense in first four games this year, scoring only 8 TDs on 38 drives, running ball for 73 ypg (30th in NFL). Arizona has a severe QB problem, averaging 4.3 or less ypp in each of last three games. Undrafted rookie Hall played most of game under center last week; Cardinal QB’s were sacked nine times in Atlanta. All four Saint games were decided by five or less points, with NO’s three wins by 5-3-2 points. Home team won five of last six series games; Saints are 4-2 in last six visits here, but haven’t been here since ’04. NFC West underdogs are 6-3 vs. spread in non-division games, 4-0 at home. Last three Arizona games went over total.
Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3) - San Diego won last 13 series games, with 11 of 13 by 7+ points; they won last six visits here, with four of last five wins by 10+; Bolts lead NFL in total yardage on both offense and defense, yet they’re 2-2, losing road games where they outgained foes by 192-247 yards. Oakland has improved, but missed FG at end of Arizona game cost them 2-2 start. Texans/Titans both ran ball for 200+ yards in wins over Raiders; interesting to see if Chargers (132.3 rushing ypg) can do similar damage. Oakland had 33 penalties in first three games, only two last week, but Houston ran ball down their throat in second half. Only TD San Diego gave up last week came on a defensive score. Over is 3-1 in first four games for both teams.
Titans (2-2) @ Cowboys (1-2) - Dallas is 14-4 vs spread in game following its last 18 byes, covering last five; they're 11-2 as a favorite coming off their bye. Tennessee is 13-6-1 as road underdog since '06; they ran ball for 205-161 yds in their wins, 46-121 in losses, and won only road game, beating Giants 29-10. Penalties been problem for Jeff Fisher; Titans have 29 penalties for 263 yards in last three games. Dallas gave up 89-38-124 rushing yards first three games. Pokes are 13-10 as favorites at home since 2007, but lost home opener this year to Bears. Could be lot of punts, as teams ranked 2-3 in 3rd down defense. Titan foes started eight drives in Tennessee territory in two Titan losses, only one in their two wins.
Eagles (2-2) @ 49ers (0-4) - Kolb gets first road start for Eagle team that has nine TDs on 24 drives on road, three TDs on 21 home drives, with road team winning all four Philly games. Niners played hearts out in Atlanta last week, leading for over 53:00, but couldn't finish job- they're 6-3-1 as home favorite last two seasons, but winless in 2010, and two games behind other three teams in NFC West. Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in non-division games involving NFC West teams (NFC West teams 0-2 as favorite). Eagles are 8-3 as road dog since '06- since 2000, they're 13-7 as a road dog in non-divisional games. Dogs are 31-15 vs spread last three weeks; here you have an 0-4 team favored over a 2-2 club. NFC East teams are 4-8 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Vikings (1-2) @ Jets (3-1) - Favre used Jets as conduit to Minnesota couple years ago, playing one half-hearted season in Jersey; now he adds Moss as an offensive threat, but how much of playbook can he learn this quick? Jets won seven of eight series games, winning all four played here by average of 19-11. Favre is personally 8-1 SU in game following his last nine byes; Vikes are 17-3 in game following last 20 byes, winning seven of last eight (5-2 as underdog in post-bye games). Jets' +8 turnover ratio leads NFL; they scored 32.3 ppg in three-game win streak (all vs division opponents), with 12 TDs on 32 drives. This is first outdoor game for Viking squad that is 13-38 on 3rd down, with seven turnovers in last two games (-2).
Tips and Trends
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
CHARGERS: (-6, O/U 44.5) San Diego has been an enigma this year, alternating outstanding performances with dismal performances. It's no secret that the home/road splits of this Chargers team are stark contrasts of each other. The Chargers are 2-2 both SU and ATS this season. San Diego will look to win their 1st road game of the year s well as consecutive games this season. San Diego is averaging 28.3 PPG, the most points in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers is the clear leader of this Chargers team, and he's putting up the numbers to prove it. Rivers has thrown for more than 1,300 YDS with 9 TD's this year, 3rd and 2nd respectively in the NFL. RB's Mike Tolbert and Ryan Matthews have done a good job leading the Chargers on the ground, as they average the 10th best rushing attack in the league at 140 YPG. Defensively, the Chargers are only allowing 17.8 PPG, with no team scoring more than 21 PTS against them. The Chiefs were the team to put up 21 PTS, and that was almost exclusively based on the special teams prowess of the Chiefs. Without question, the San Diego special teams have been the weakest link of this team. The Chargers are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games in October.
Chargers are 2-7 ATS last 9 games as a road favorite.
Over is 5-1 last 6 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - LB Shawne Merriman (calf) is questionable.
Projected Score: 23
RAIDERS: Oakland is 1-3 both SU and ATS this season, and all is not well in Raider land. While Oakland has struggled mightily over the past few years, there is no question that more was expected of this specific team this year. In every game but their season opener, the Raiders have been involved in one possession outcomes. Revenge will clearly be on the minds of the Raiders today, as they've lost the past 13 contests against San Diego. Oakland has scored 23 and 24 PTS the past 2 weeks, thanks to a powerful rushing attack. The Raiders are averaging 140 rushing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. RB Darren McFadden has been the biggest reason for their running game, but with him now hurt it will be up to Michael Bush to carry the load. New starting QB Bruce Gradkowski has done an admirable job making the Raiders competitive in his short time as the starter. Defensively, Oakland has has huge problems stopping the run while being amongst the best in the NFL against the pass. The Raiders are ranked 31st in the NFL against the run, while ranking 3rd against the pass this season. The Raiders are 11-23 ATS in their last 34 games as a home underdog. Raiders are 15-36 ATS in their last 51 home games. Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games in October.
Raiders are 7-1 ATS last 8 games following an ATS loss.
Under is 4-1 last 5 games against the AFC West.
Key Injuries - WR Louis Murphy (collarbone) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)
Philadelphia Eagles at San Francisco 49ers
EAGLES: Philadelphia is the most publicized 2-2 SU team in NFL history. The QB situation with both Michael Vick and Kevin Kolb, as well as the offseason dismissal of Donovan McNabb have kept the press on this team constantly. Vick was injured in their last game, so Kolb will get the start tonight. The Eagles are only 1-3 ATS this season, as they've been the listed favorite in 3 of their 4 games thus far. Surprisingly enough, Philadelphia is 2-0 SU on the road this year, a trend they hope continues tonight. The Eagles are ranked 11th in the NFL both with their rushing and passing attack this year. Losing Vick will certainly hurt the rushing game for the Eagles, as they are also dealing with an injury to starting RB LeSean McCoy. Defensively, Philadelphia must become better at stopping the run, as they are allowing the 28th most yards in the NFL on the ground at 138.8 YPG. The Eagles are giving up an average of 19.8 PPG this season. The Eagles are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 PTS. Philadelphia is 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC.
Eagles are 11-4 ATS last 15 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - RB LeSean McCoy (ribs) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
49ERS: (-3.5, O/U 38) San Francisco was expected to challenge the elite teams in the NFL, as they were a sleeper candidate to in the NFC. The 49ers would love to start their season over, as they are a horrendous 0-4 SU so far. San Francisco's latest loss might be their most heartbreaking, as they fell 14-16 SU in Atlanta. Tonight will mark only their 2nd home game of the season, with their first coming in a primetime setting against New Orleans on MNF. The 49ers have scored 14 PTS or fewer in 3 of their 4 games so far this year. Nearly the entire offense of San Francisco has underperformed this season, a big reason for a coaching change involving the Offensive Coordinator. QB Alex Smith has thrown for 920 YDS, with 3 TD's and 7 INT's this year. The supposed vaunted defense of San Francisco was expected to be great too, and they have allowed 25.8 PPG, 6th worst in the NFL. The Niners have their next 2 games at home, and in both situations they will be the listed favorite. The 49ers are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. San Francisco is 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
49ers are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 home games.
Under is 10-4 last 14 games following a SU loss.
Key Injuries - LB Manny Lawson (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (OVER-Total of the Day)
Where The Action Is: NFL Week 5 Line Moves
By Greg Sindall
Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens
Opening line: Baltimore -7, 39
Current line: Baltimore -7, 39.5
Nearly 58 percent of the side action is on the Ravens, while 55 percent of the action on the total is on Over. Sharp action came in on Over when the line briefly dipped to 38.5.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills
Opening line: Pick’em, 41
Current line: Jacksonville -1.5, 41
Early sharp action moved the line to Jacksonville -1. The public hopped on and with 80 percent of the total action on the Jags, the line now sits at -1.5. Close to 58 percent of the money is on Over.
Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
Opening line: Indianapolis -9, 44
Current line: Indianapolis -8, 45.5
Sharp action came in early on Kansas City +9, but the Colts are still a public team and the public does not believe Peyton Manning will lose two straight, especially coming home. About 60 percent of the total action is on Indy. As you can tell by the line movement, everybody is expecting a shootout with 90 percent of the action on Over.
St Louis Rams at Detroit Lions
Opening line: Detroit -3, 43
Current line: -3, 42.5
Split action on the game with 55 percent of the money on the home team. When games are indoors, people expect scoring so it’s not surprising to see 88 percent of the action on Over.
Atlanta Falcons at Cleveland Browns
Opening line: Atlanta -3 -115, 41.5
Current line: Atlanta -3 -120, 41.5
The sharps and public are in strong agreement with 92 percent of the action on Atlanta. As is often the case when so much money is on a favorite, 70 percent of the action on the total is on Over.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals
Opening line: Cincinnati -6.5, 38
Current line: Cincinnati -6.5, 38
About 78 percent of the side action is on the Bengals, while sharp action and 80 percent of the overall action on the total is on Over.
Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers
Opening line: Chicago -3, 36
Current line: Carolina -1.5, 33.5
Sharp action came in on Carolina as underdogs while Jay Cutler’s status was still questionable. With both Cutler and Steve Smith injured, early sharp action also came in on the Under. About 35.5. 58 percent of the overall action is on Chicago and 61 percent of the overall action on the total is on Over, mostly at 33.5.
Green Bay Packers at Washington Redskins
Opening line: Green Bay -2.5, 44
Current line: Green Bay -2.5, 45.5
With Clinton Portis out and Donovan McNabb a bit banged up, it is not surprising to see 88 percent of the action on the Packers, who are also the Super Bowl favorites. Sharp action on this game is on Over 44. The public agrees as the Over has seen 84 percent of the total action so far.
New York Giants at Houston Texans
Opening line: Houston -3, 47.5
Current line: Houston -3, 47.5
Thinking the Texans are not getting enough respect yet, both sharp and public money (79 percent) is on Houston. 63 percent of the action on the total is on Under.
New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals
Opening line: New Orleans -7, 46.5
Current line: New Orleans -7, 44.5
When you have Drew Brees versus an undrafted rookie QB, it is not surprising to see that 92 percent of the action is on the Saints. With so much money on the favorite, 62 percent of the action on the total is naturally on Over.
San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders
Opening line: San Diego -6, 44.5
Current line: San Diego -6.5, 45
Sharps jumped on the Chargers at -6 early, causing a quick move to -6.5. Around 90 percent of the total action is on San Diego, mostly at -6.5. The Over is seeing most of the action on the total at 77 percent.
Tennessee Titans at Dallas Cowboys
Opening line: Dallas -6.5, 42
Current line: Dallas -7, 42.5
Total action on the side is dead even but the sharps are taking Tennessee and the points. An overwhelming 87 percent of the action on the total is on Over.
Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David
Week 4 Recap
After watching the ‘under’ go 10-4-2 in Week 1, total players have seen the ‘over’ prevail in the last three weeks, including an 8-6 mark last weekend. With a quarter of the regular season in the books, the ‘over/under’ on the season stands at 30-30-2.
Are the numbers too short? Or perhaps the offensive schemes are starting to click? Either way, make a note that there were three games with totals of 37 or less in Week 4 and the ‘over’ produced a 2-1 record in those contests. Gamblers have four battles to handicap with numbers of 38 ½ or less this week, with the Chicago-Carolina (33) matchup listed as the lowest.
Once again four teams will be off this weekend, with the Patriots, Dolphins, Steelers and Seahawks on bye. And of this quartet, ‘over’ players don’t have the opportunity to keep banging New England this week, who is the only team to see all four of its games climb ‘over’ the number.
Non-Divisional Matchups
The AFC West battle between the Chargers and Raiders is the lone divisional matchup on the board this week, which leaves us with 13 matchups that don’t have much head-to-head history to analyze. However, VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence has some nice situational trends in Week 5.
Cleveland’s last nine matchups against the NFC South have gone ‘under’ the number, including its Week 1 loss at Tampa Bay (14-17), which had a total of 37. This week, the Falcons head to Ohio and the total is hovering around 40 points, which is the highest ‘over/under’ the Browns have seen this season. And Mr. Lawrence has an extra tightner on this game with Atlanta, who has seen the ‘under’ go 9-0 in its last nine battles as a non-division road favorite.
Another contest that has great non-divisional trends toward the ‘under’ is between Green Bay and Washington. The Packers have watched the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine encounters against NFC East foes, which includes a 27-20 win at Philadelphia in Week 1, which barely slid ‘under’ the closing number of 47 ½. And at the same time, the Redskins have seen the ‘under’ go 7-2 in their last nine battles versus foes from the NFC North. This line has been back and forth between 44 and 45 all week and could close higher come kickoff. The Packers have shown the ability to move the ball and score (26.5 PPG) but the same cannot be said for the ‘Skins. One stat that makes this writer worry about Washington is its third-down conversion rate of 25 percent, which is the second-worst in the league.
Lawrence has also provided us with a weekly game trend, which is pretty strong for the Titans-Cowboys showdown. Over the last five seasons, Tennessee has watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 in its fifth game. And, Dallas has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its fourth game over the past eight seasons. The ‘Boys are off the bye week and their offense (18 PPG) hasn’t been strong even though the yardage (391 YPG) has been compiled. On the other hand, Tennessee has managed to average 24.5 PPG, while only posting 285.5 YPG, which is ranked 27th in the league. The ‘over/under’ is 42.
Bye Trends from ML
# Kansas City has seen the ‘over’ go 5-1 in its last six after the bye
# Minnesota has seen the ‘over’ go 9-3 in its last 12 after the bye
# Baltimore has seen the ‘under’ go 8-3 in its last 11 before the bye
# Arizona has seen the ‘over’ go 6-1 in its last seven before the bye
# Carolina has seen the ‘under’ go 6-2 in its last eight before the bye
Under the Lights
The Giants defeated the Bears 17-3 in a snooze-fest on Sunday Night and the combined 20 points never threatened the closing number of 44. Then on Monday Night Football, it looked liked déjà vu all over again as Miami led New England 7-6 after the first 30 minutes. Sure enough, the Patriots put up a 35-point second-half and coasted to a 41-14 victory with the help of some great special teams and defensive scores. Most outfits closed the total at 48 ½.
Philadelphia at San Francisco: If there was ever a more difficult game to handicap from a side and total perspective, this could be it. Seriously, how do you pick the Eagles on the road (2-2) with Kevin Kolb at QB? At the same time, can you back QB Alex Smith and the 49ers (0-4) at home off an awful loss? That’s why we look at the total and it’s on the key number of 38 and we just might see a 21-17 or 24-14 final too. Even though the club has only played one home game, the 49ers have looked bad with Smith under center. And the Eagles haven’t shown much when Kolb has been on the field either. Historically, the ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six in this series, plus the Eagles have lit up the scoreboard for 40, 38 and 38 in their last three trips to San Francisco. Can Kolb and company keep those trends rolling?
Minnesota at N.Y. Jets: You could make a case that every game on MNF should’ve gone ‘under’ this season, if it wasn’t for last week’s results and the Week 2 contest between New Orleans and San Francisco. Bettors playing first-half ‘under’ tickets have steamrolled their way to a 5-0 mark, and the second-half ‘under’ has gone 3-2 as well, with the two losers going to the aforementioned outcomes.
This week, we head to New York as the Vikings and Jets close Week 5. A lot of big-play guys will be on the field for both sides, yet the total is still low (39). You do have two solid defensive clubs matching up, but that could create short tracks and decent field position for each team. New York struggled in its Week 1 loss to Baltimore (9-10) but has since put up 28, 31 and 38 points during its three-game winning streak, all ‘over’ winners too.
On the other side of the field is Minnesota, who has watched the ‘under’ cash in all three of its games this season. QB Brett Favre and the offense (14.3 PPG) aren’t clicking at all but some feel the acquisition of WR Randy Moss will help spread the field. Despite the slow start, the defense (12.7 PPG, 276.3 YPG) has been nasty albeit against a struggling Saints squad, an inconsistent Dolphins offense (who scored a defensive TD against Minny), and a Lions team without Matthew Stafford.
What happens when a strong rested defense meets a red-hot offense? More often than not, the defense wins.
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