Total Talk - Week 6
By Chris David
Week 5 Recap
The fifth installment of the NFL saw the totals come to a 7-7 stalemate. There were a handful of close calls that could’ve adjusted the number in either direction. The ‘over’ also cashed on Monday Night Football (see below) battle between the Dolphins and Jets thanks to a 35-point barrage in the final 15 minutes. After five weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 40-36 (53%). Looking ahead, another four teams (Dolphins, Colts, Cowboys, 49ers) are on bye this week, which gives 14 games to wager on.
Divisional Trends
Six games have divisional foes squaring off for the first time this year.
Cleveland at Pittsburgh: Prior to six straight ‘over’ tickets, the Browns and Steelers watched both games go ‘under’ the number in 2008. Cleveland isn’t great by any stretch but not a lot of teams start the season with four of the first six on the road. The first three away from home have gone ‘under’ for Cleveland. Pitt has seen its last three games go ‘over’ the total.
Carolina at Tampa Bay: Both teams have had trouble scoring this year, which is why the total is hovering at 39 points. Unfortunately, we have nothing solid to focus on in this matchup, with the total going 4-4 in the last eight.
Detroit at Green Bay: Five of the last four have easily hit the ‘over’ in this series and we mean easily too folks. The Lions have given up 45 and 48 in their two road games this weekend and the Packers are rested. Detroit is banged up on offense and it might have trouble matching points in this spot.
Arizona at Seattle: Oddsmakers usually set the numbers higher in this series but the ‘over’ has gone 6-2 in the last eight meetings. The Cardinals have only played one road game this year and it went ‘over.’ Seattle has seen the ‘under’ go 2-1 at home.
Buffalo at N.Y. Jets: Six of the last eight have gone ‘over’ including both contests last year. Some bad weather in the Northeast expected which could hinder any chance of fireworks. The Bills have had issues on offense and the Jets’ defense was humbled last week at Miami. Time to bounce back?
Denver at San Diego: The ‘over’ has cashed in five of the last six encounters. See below for more insight on this game.
The Afternoon Unders
If you’ve read the past Total Talk columns, then you’re aware of the ‘under’ run for the 4:00 ET NFL games. After five weeks, we can’t put a pulse on it. I’d be guessing if I said it had something to do with the late start or even the travel factor, but the sportsbooks have been happy with the low-scoring affairs. So far, the ‘under’ has produced a 14-6 (70%) ledger in the late games and that includes last week’s 3-1 mark. Surprisingly, the lowest total in the four games was on the Atlanta-San Francisco (39.5) battle and that cashed by halftime. The other three games were very close to going ‘over’ as well, which could make gamblers decide if this is the week to bet the ‘over’ tickets or do you ride the ‘under’ trend?
For now, be sure to stay abreast with the WEATHER UPDATES for the two games on the East Coast before you run to the counter. Also, be careful with the Raiders. Two minutes into the game and you’ll probably be cursing quarterback JaMarcus Russell.
Monday Night Madness
The Dolphins stopped the Jets 31-27 last Monday and the 58 points easily jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 36. It doesn’t happen very often in the NFL but the two teams busted out for 35 points in the fourth quarter, which has become a common trend this year. In Week 1, the Buffalo-New England and San Diego-Oakland affairs both saw 22 and 24 points posted respectively in the final 15 minutes. Even the Green Bay-Minnesota contest in Week 4 needed 11 in the last stanza to help the ‘over’ cash. Wins are wins but we still haven’t seen that wire-to-wire shootout yet under the lights, which makes us wonder if and when it will happen?
For the third straight week on MNF, we have a divisional matchup and this one is a tough contest to gauge, especially from a total perspective. Denver heads to San Diego and while nobody expected the Broncos to be leading the AFC West with a 5-0 record, the club’s perfect ledger (5-0) against the ‘under’ has me more perplexed.
Is the Denver defense that good? The unit is ranked first in points allowed (8.6) and second in yards (252). They force turnovers (11) and they know how to get to the quarterback (16 sacks). Offensively, the team does nothing special yet they make plays when they have to. It’s hard to see this group ever putting up 30 points, which is what they could need this week against the Chargers. In the last six meetings between the two teams, San Diego has posted 52, 38, 23, 41, 48 and 35 for an average of 39.5 PPG.
My suggestions, find a team total on the Chargers and don’t be surprised to see a blitzkrieg happen early and often!
Fearless Predictions
Those playing along last week witnessed a tough split as the Steelers-Lions game went ‘over’ and the Eagles-Bucs failed to stay ‘under’ the number. The teaser got a little scary in the Philadelphia game but still cashed for the second straight week. On the year, the totals now stand at 5-3 (+170) and the teasers are 2-2 (0). Based on one-unit plays, we’re in up $170 and have cashed three straight weeks in a row. Was that sentence the jinx? As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Best Over: Cardinals-Seahawks (46.5)
This matchup has been a steady ‘over’ play and we’re not going to shy away here. The Cardinals and Seahawks have both been suspect on defense this year and they like to air it out, which are just two key factors for a high-scoring affair. Seattle’s defensive numbers look good on paper, but that’s just due to a pair of shutouts. We expect both teams to get a minimum of five scores each and it will be a matter of converting touchdowns rather than field goals. Look for more six-spots in this one folks.
Best Under: Browns-Steelers (38)
Cleveland has had trouble scoring against anybody this year and surprisingly, the defense is the strength of the team. Last week, they held Buffalo to 3 points but two weeks prior they did a solid job against Cincinnati as well. Mangini knows he’s not going to win a shootout since he doesn’t have the offensive horses. Pittsburgh’s attack has been solid but we expect them to pound the rock here and it could be flat with a look-ahead game against Minnesota looming. The Steelers’ defense has given up 20-plus in three straight and most would expect that number to improve here. Tomlin’s team could be flat and vanilla in this spot, considering a big game versus Minnesota is on deck.
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Cardinals-Seahawks 37.5
Under Browns-Steelers 47
Over Rams-Jaguars 34
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SNF - Bears at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
Past the Giants and Saints playing Sunday afternoon, the Bears and Falcons is the second best matchup on the Week 6 NFL card. Both Chicago and Atlanta are 3-1 out of the gate, while both are looking to sneak into the elite status of the NFC.
This game features two of the better young quarterbacks in the league, Jay Cutler and Matt Ryan, while a pair of dynamic running backs take center-stage, Matt Forte and Michael Turner. Following Cutler’s four interception performance in the opener at Green Bay, the former Broncos quarterback has tossed just one interception in the last three games, all Chicago victories. In the three wins over the Steelers, Seahawks, and Lions, Cutler has thrown seven touchdown passes.
Ryan has been equally impressive, tossing seven touchdowns passes and only two interceptions, while compiling nearly 1000 yards through four games. Ryan’s worst game came at New England, Atlanta’s lone loss on the season. The ex-BC signal-caller was held to 199 yards passing and no touchdowns in a 26-10 setback.
Following a 65-yard performance against the Dolphins in the season opener, Turner has scored five touchdowns the last three games. The Falcons running back found the end zone three times at San Francisco this past week, his third career game with at least three touchdowns. Turner faces a Bears defense that ranks ninth in the league in rushing defense, allowing 93.5 yards/game.
Forte was held in check the first three contests, not gaining more than 66 yards in the team’s 2-1 start. Forte blew up against the Lions, putting up 121 yards and a touchdown to help Chicago to its third victory. Atlanta ranks in the bottom ten of the league in rushing defense, yielding 127 yards/game, as the Falcons were fortunate not to face the injured Frank Gore last week in San Francisco.
Interestingly, the Bears have outgained only one opponent through four games, and that came in the opening week loss at Green Bay. On the flip side, Chicago has been outgained in all their of their victories, as the Bears put up less than 300 yards, but scored 48 points against Detroit before the bye.
The Bears' defense is taking a bit of hit without the services of Pro Bowl linebacker Brian Urlacher, who suffered a season-ending wrist injury against the Packers. Chicago allowed 346 total yards to Seneca Wallace and the Seahawks, then 398 total yards to Matthew Stafford and the Lions.
The Falcons finally busted out offensively last week at San Francisco, tallying 477 yards in a 45-10 pounding of the 49ers. The game was not only a big confidence-booster to the offense, but also to star wideout Roddy White. The former UAB wide receiver was limited to 119 yards the first three games before exploding for 210 yards and two touchdowns against San Francisco.
Atlanta is still trying to find consistency on both sides of the ball, putting up 281 yards against Miami and 257 at New England. However, the Falcons amassed 371 yards against Carolina, then had the huge output at San Francisco, as one can argue Atlanta had their better offensive performances against better defenses.
This will be the first primetime stage for the Falcons since a Monday Night contest on December 10, 2007. Go back into the memory vault, and you'll distinctly remember that game. The Falcons were blown out at home against the Saints, as hours later Bobby Petrino announced his sudden resignation as head coach, then was chanting, "Pig Suey," in Arkansas as the head man of the Razorbacks.
The Bears and Falcons played to a classic finish last season at the Georgia Dome in Week 6. The game was a field-goal fest in the first half, as Atlanta led 9-3 at the intermission. The Falcons even owned a nine-point lead in the final quarter thanks to a Ryan-to-White three-yard hookup. The Bears pulled ahead with 17 seconds remaining, as Kyle Orton hit Rashied Davis in the corner of the end zone to give Chicago the win. Or so the Bears thought.
Amazingly, the Falcons took the kickoff to their own 44, then Ryan connected with Michael Jenkins right in from of the Atlanta sidelines with one second left. Jason Elam booted a 48-yard game-winning field goal to give Atlanta the 22-20 victory in one of the most talked-about finishes of last season.
VI capper Bruce Marshall isn't 100% sold on the Falcons yet, "I might be one of the few that is still skeptical about the Falcons, which is a very hard thing to say after they destroyed the 49ers last week. No knocks at all on Ryan and that offense, but I still think this defense could be a problem, especially versus the run."
Marshall points out that the Falcons haven't been great in the run-stopping department, "New England pushed them around pretty good a few weeks ago, they don't have Grady Jackson as a run stuffer in the middle like a year ago, and Ole Miss rookie DT Peria Jerry is now out with injury. The Falcons also rank low in rush defense stats, which is a concern. This stop unit lost a lot (including Jackson) in free agency, and though they brought in some reinforcements, something tells me teams are going to be able to run on these guys."
The Falcons can definitely score with all of its skill position players, but Cutler still has capable targets, according to Marshall, "You get the feeling that the Bears are going to be involved in a lot of close games this season, and Cutler is already beginning to make a difference. Devin Hester and Earl Bennett are evolving into decent targets for the Vandy man, whose rocket arm is allowing the Bear offense to stretch the field like it couldn't dream of doing with its other QB's the past few years."
Randy Scott, the sportsbook manager at BetED.com says early money came in on Chicago. "The game opened at Falcons -3.5, -105. Since then, it's move off that key half point to -3, -120. Not because of the action, but to conserve market value. No one is using -3.5 right now."
As far as where the money is going now, Scott says there is no advantage either way, "The action is split, but the heavy public betting on this game hasn't started yet so it's hard to say at this point which direction it'll go. I anticipate the Falcons to get majority of the action. The key number of three in this game is considered absolute. Meaning, by moving it off either way creates more value than we are willing to give up."
The Falcons are currently listed as a three-point favorite, but in most spots you would have to lay $1.25 on Atlanta. The total, which hasn't received the same attention as the side, sits at 45 ½, but may jump to 46 by game-time.
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NFL cheat sheet: Week 6
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Houston Texans at Cincinnati Bengals (-4.5)
Why Texans cover: In two career games against the Bengals, Matt Schaub has completed 85 percent of his passes with three touchdowns. All five of Cincy's games have come down to the wire.
Why Bengals cover: They’ve won three of last four meetings. They’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. RB Cedric Benson has been dominant this season and faces a poor Texans' rush defense.
Total (45): Under is 4-1 in Texans' last five road games and 9-3-1 in Bengals' last 13 home games.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-13.5)
Why Lions cover: Daunte Culpepper (282 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) played well against a tough Steelers team and will start again if Matthew Stafford can't go. Green Bay has allowed the most sacks in the NFL. Road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two clubs.
Why Packers cover: They’ve won 15 of last 17 meetings. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Green Bay. Detroit is likely to be without stud receiver Calvin Johnson.
Total (48): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
St. Louis Rams at Jacksonville Jaguars (-10)
Why Rams cover: They’ve won both previous meetings. They get Marc Bulger back from his shoulder injury. Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.
Why Jaguars cover: Tory Holt will be energized to play against his former team. Maurice Jones-Drew gets to face the league's 23rd ranked rush defense. Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Total (41.5): Under is 4-1 in Rams' last five road games and 7-3-1 in their last 11 games overall.
Baltimore Ravens at Minnesota Vikings (-3)
Why Ravens cover: They’ve won two of three meetings. Joe Flacco has won six of his last eight road starts, throwing for 1,712 yards with 13 scores along the way. Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Minnesota's rookie standout wideout Percy Harvin is questionable with a shoulder injury.
Why Vikings cover: Baltimore is prone to taking too many penalties, particularly at key moments. Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (43.5): Over is 8-2-1 in Ravens' last 11 road games and 4-1 in Vikings' last five games overall.
New York Giants at New Orleans Saints (-3)
Why Giants cover: Have won four of past six meetings. Have the defense to pressure Drew Brees and slow New Orleans' potent offense. Saints could be without Pierre Thomas who was limited in practice this week due to an injured ankle.
Why Saints cover: Eli Manning is still hobbled by a foot injury. New York could be without leading rusher Ahmad Bradshaw who has been dealing with a nagging ankle injury. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Total (47.5): Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings.
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-14)
Why Browns cover: Steelers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. AFC's fifth-ranked pass defense could hamper the Steelers' aerial attack.
Why Steelers cover: They’ve won 11 consecutive meetings and will get Willie Parker and Troy Polamalu back from injuries. Favorite is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings. Browns are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh and 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings overall. Cleveland has scored six or fewer points in three of its last four games.
Total (38): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Pittsburgh.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3)
Why Panthers cover: They’re 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Jake Delhomme has defeated the Bucs in eight of his 10 career starts against them. Josh Johnson (57.1 rating) has not been the answer for Tampa Bay's quarterback woes. Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Buccaneers cover: Panthers are 0-5 ATS in their last five games. Running backs Cadillac Williams and Derrick Ward could expose Carolina's 30th ranked rush defense.
Total (40): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Tampa Bay.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (-6.5)
Why Chiefs cover: Have won six of seven all-time meetings. Washington has been dealing with a patchwork offensive line that has limited their ability to move the ball. Redskins are 2-8-3 ATS in their last 13 games and 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games.
Why Redskins cover: Chiefs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Larry Johnson (2.4 yards per carry, zero TDs) has been terrible, forcing the Chiefs to rely too heavily on the passing game.
Total (37.5): Under is 16-5-2 in Redskins' last 23 home games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (+14)
Why Eagles cover: Are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games and 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games. JaMarcus Russell has struggled with decision making, accuracy and can't hold onto the ball. The Eagles defense should eat him alive. Oakland's offense has failed to reach 200 yards in four consecutive games.
Why Raiders cover: They resigned Langston Walker to help patch up offensive line. All-Pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha could shut down DeSean Jackson and force Donovan McNabb to dump off to his tight ends and running backs.
Total (40.5): Over is 5-0 in Eagles' last five games.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3)
Why Cardinals cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Have the NFL's best rush defense. Seattle's banged up offensive line could have a hard time keeping rickety Matt Hasselbeck off his back. Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin have averaged close to 100 yards receiving each in their last five games against the Seahawks.
Why Seahawks cover: Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. T.J. Houshmandzadeh is starting to emerge as the offensive threat he was signed to be. Seattle has picked off Kurt Warner 11 times in its last five games against him.
Total (47.5): Over is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-9.5)
Why Titans cover: Patriots are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games. New England could be without left tackle Matt Light. Pats running back Fred Taylor is out and his replacements are averaging just over three yards per carry.
Why Patriots cover: They’ve won four of last five meeting. Titans are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Kerry Collins is on the verge of losing his starting job. Tom Brady will face a decimated Titans' secondary that will now be without defensive back Nick Harper.
Total (43.5): Over is 5-1 in Patriots' last six home games.
Buffalo at New York Jets (-10)
Why Bills cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New York. After an impressive start, the Jets’ defense has struggled, allowing 758 total yards the past two games. Underdog is 19-7 ATS in the last 26 meetings. Road team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.
Why Jets cover: Buffalo is averaging only 6.6 points per game since Week 2. Braylon Edwards (64 yards, TD) was dynamic in his Jets' debut and continued to impress in practice this week.
Total (38): Over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3)
Why Bears cover: Have won eight of the last 10 meetings. Are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Jay Cutler (7 TDs, 1 INT) has been incredible in leading Chicago to three straight victories. Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
Why Falcons cover: They’re 10-1 in their last 11 games at the Georgia Dome. Chicago has struggled to run the ball this season and have the league's 27th ranked rushing game. Matt Ryan lit up the Bears for 310 yards and a TD in his only game against them.
Total (46): Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Atlanta.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-4)
Why Broncos cover: They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games. WR Brandon Marshall has four scores and 222 yards receiving in his last three games after beginning the season in his coach's doghouse. Former SD sack machine Shawne Merriman has been non-existent this season and is feuding with the team's GM. Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Why Chargers cover: Have won five of last six meetings. Philip Rivers is 4-0 all-time in Monday nighters with a 106.9 passer rating to boot. Favorite is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Home team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Broncos are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in San Diego.
Total (44): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Week 6 NFL Mismatches
By DAVID JONES
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots (-9.5, 43)
Tom Brady vs. Tennessee's pass defense
While New England quarterback Tom Brady hasn't approached his stellar 2007 form, he is still directing the NFL's sixth-best passing offense. The air attack should be able to impose its will on a battered and bruised Titans defense.
Tennessee is next to last in passing defense and the club's secondary isn't healthy heading into the contest. Safety Chris Hope is the only healthy starter in the defensive backfield for the Titans. The other three starters are either questionable or doubtful to play on Sunday due to injuries.
The situational matchup also should lead to a productive day for Brady and Company.
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 46.5)
Seattle's third-down defense vs. Arizona's third-down offense
The Seahawks defense has already pitched a couple of shutouts at home this season. The club's third-down defense is playing a key role. Seattle is sixth in the NFL in the category, with opposing offenses converting just over 32 percent of their third downs. The Jaguars went 2-of-13 on third-down tries in last week's defeat at Seattle.
The Cardinals one-dimensional offense has caused some problems in third down situations. Arizona is last in the conference in rushing and third-down conversion percentage (26.1).
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-13, 47.5)
Detroit's third-down offense vs. Green Bay's third-down defense
This matchup could enable Detroit to keep the Green Bay offense on the sidelines for a few more minutes on Sunday. The Lions lead the NFC in third-down conversions with 36 and are seventh in the NFL in percentage at 45 percent.
Detroit's ability to keep the ball will be a little more difficult this week. Top receiver Calvin Johnson is doubtful to play due to a knee injury.
The defense of new Green Bay coordinator Dom Capers hasn't been able to get off the field in critical situations so far this season. The Packers defense is 28th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 43.9.
Kansas City Chiefs at Washington Redskins (-6, 37)
Washington’s pass defense vs. Kansas City's pass offense
With all of the controversy surrounding the Redskins coaching staff and offense, the Washington defense has been overlooked this season.
The Redskins are third in the NFL in passing defense. They face a Kansas City passing game that is 29th in the league. With running back Larry Johnson being held to just 2.4 yards per carry, the Chiefs have been forced to pass the ball in some predictable situations for the defense. The lack of an elite receiver presents a further challenge for quarterback Matt Cassel.
Denver Broncos at San Diego Chargers (-3.5, 44)
Denver's rush units vs. San Diego's rush units
The ability to control the line of scrimmage is one of the most fundamental aspects of football. This concept has played a major role in Denver's perfect 5-0 start. The Broncos are in the top six in the NFL in rushing offense and defense.
Denver's running game won't be at full strength on Monday night. Correll Buckhalter is doubtful for the contest due to an ankle injury.
In contrast, the Chargers haven't been able to control things up front on either side of the ball. San Diego is 27th in the league in rushing defense while ranking dead last in the NFL in rushing offense. A banged up LaDainian Tomlinson has been limited to just 20 carries this season but his 3.5 yards per carry average is a far cry from his glory days a few years ago.
What Bettors Need To Know: Bears at Falcons
By Sean Murphy
Line movement
The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites, and that’s where the line has stayed at most books.
If you’re looking to back the home side, you should still be able to find flat -3 at several outlets.
The total has held steady at 45.5, but will likely rise to 46 or even 46.5 leading up to kickoff as the money continues to pour in on the over.
Battle of 3-1 teams
Both the Bears and Falcons check in sporting 3-1 records and both have already enjoyed their bye weeks.
Atlanta has defeated the Dolphins, Panthers and 49ers. Its lone loss came at the hands of the Patriots in New England.
Chicago’s three wins have come against the Steelers, Seahawks and Lions.
Not only are both teams 3-1 SU, but they’ve also cashed in at a 3-1 ATS clip as well.
Added muscle
The Bears defensive line is playing great this season, something many people are crediting to the arrival of Rod Marinelli. The former Lions head coach is back in his element teaching d-linemen how to be their best.
Marinelli gained another asset to his group when the Bears traded for defensive end Gaines Adams. The former Top 5 pick never really found a comfort zone with Tampa Bay, but Marinelli Adams will be a great addition to Chicago’s defense.
“Athletically, talent-wise and movement-wise, he’s special,” Marinelli told the Bears team website. “He’s got the skills and the tools to be outstanding. But that’s not the issue. The issue is getting him to play outstanding, and that just starts with day-to-day work at practice.”
Adams is expected to be in Atlanta and available for the Bears. Chicago is already one of the best teams at getting to the quarterback with 14 sacks in four games.
Run Forte, run
It’s no secret that the best way to beat the Falcons is to run the ball down their throats.
Atlanta has been ineffective defending the run, allowing 127 rush yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush. In its lone loss, the club was torched by the Patriots for 168 yards on 39 attempts.
The Bears have done a nice job moving the football on the ground, but have leaned more heavily on their passing attack.
Chicago averages just 91.2 rush yard per game with a 3.8 average per carry.
Bears RB Matt Forte is coming off a huge performance against the Lions. He ran for 121 yards and a touchdown on just 12 carries. Chicago backers should hope their team dials up more plays for the second-year back.
In Ryan we trust
Matt Ryan continues to evolve into one of the most reliable quarterbacks in the NFL.
He is just shy of the 1,000-yard mark already and has thrown seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions, good for a 102.9 QB rating.
Ryan abused the 49ers secondary last week, but should find the going a little tougher against a Bears defense that allows just 5.9 yards per pass play.
In last year’s matchup with the Bears, Ryan threw for 301 yards and a touchdown, leading his Falcons to a 22-20 victory.
The Falcons signal caller doesn’t feel that result holds any weight this week.
“It was a big win, but that’s done. That was last year,” Ryan said. “They’re a different football team this year. We’re just doing what we can to get ready to play.”
Trends and things
The Bears are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 October games. They haven’t fared well as a road underdog, going 0-4-1 ATS in their last five opportunities.
The under is 8-3 in the Bears’ last 11 road games and 24-9-1 in their last 34 games as a road underdog of a field goal or less.
The Falcons have been an excellent bet at the Georgia Dome, already 2-0 SU and ATS this season, and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as hosts.
The over is 10-4 in the Falcons last 14 home games, but the under is 34-16-2 in their last 52 games following a SU victory.
Last year’s matchup here in Atlanta played just a single point under the posted total of 43, with the Falcons covering as 3-point underdogs.
Revenge in play
By SportsPic
Think Chicago Bears (3-1, 3-1 ATS) have forgotten last years week-6 encounter in the Georgia Dome holding a 20-19 lead with 17 seconds remaining but walking off at the wrong end of a 22-20 decision after a 26-yard Matt Ryan pass that set up a last second Jason Elam field goal ? No way, the revenge factor will be in play Sunday Night for this years battle with Falcons (3-1, 3-1 ATS). Bears ridding the rocket right arm of QB Jay Cutlers have won three straight games following a season-opening loss to Green Bay with the most recent victory being a 48-24 rout of Detroit prior to last week's bye. Although Bears are just 2-5 both SU & ATS last seven in enemy venues the improvement in the pass rush (14 sacks) along with it's sturdy play against the run (93.5 RYG) gives them a fighting chance. Yep, Falcons got its dangerous offense firing on all cylinders last week in San Francisco destroying 49ers 45-10 behind Ryan's 329 passing yards, 2 TD's, Michael Turner's 97 rushing yards 3 TD's. Yep, Falcons have been tough hosts in the Georgia Dome with Ryan taking snaps going 9-1 (7-3 ATS) including 19-7, 28-20 victories over Dolphins, Panthers this season. However, the lone set-back came to a Cutler-lead Denver squad in week-11 last November. Consider Chicago knowing Bears are 9-2 ATS on the highway with revenge vs the conference, 7-1-1 ATS as 3.5 or more point dogs with revenge, 5-1 ATS away after a bye. As always best of luck.
Week 6 NFL games
Chiefs (0-5) @ Redskins (2-3)-- Washington has yet to play team with win; they've also yet to score more than 17 points in a game, blowing 17-2 lead at Carolina last week. Skins are 0-2 as home favorite this year, scoring 25 points in narrow wins over Rams (9-7), Bucs (16-13). 0-5 Chiefs are playing fourth straight NFC East foe; last week was their first cover of year, taking Cowboys to OT before losing 26-20. NFC East favorites are 8-5 vs spread in its non-divisional games, 4-2 at home. AFC West road underdogs are 1-5. Last four Redskins games stayed under total-- last three Kansas City games went over.
Texans (2-3) @ Bengals (4-1)-- Cincinnati won last four games, sweeping its AFC North rivals last three weeks, with all three wins by FG each. Concern over Palmer's hand-- he was handing off lefty most of 4th quarter vs Ravens, but Bengals are on roll, with Benson leading NFL in rushing- they've run ball for average of 136.8 ypg in last four games. Houston crushed Cincy 35-6 LY in game that Texans had +3 turnover ratio. Texans rallied from 21-0 deficit at the half to tie Arizona last week but threw pick-6 for TD in last 3:00, then didn't score with ball on 1-yard line in last 1:00. Over is 3-1 Bengals' last four games.
Browns (1-4) @ Steelers (3-2)-- Pitt won last ten series games, covering four of last five played here (average win in last five at Heinz, 31-16). Home faves in division games are 7-9 this season, 1-6 in AFC. After losing first three tilts by 14-21-31 points, Browns split a pair of 3-point decisions last two weeks, though they were 2-17/22 passing in 6-3 win in Buffalo, ugly numbers. Pitt has been outscored 68-44 in second half of games this year, forcing only two turnovers in four games Polamalu missed (he is practicing this week). Steelers are 1-4 vs spread this season, winning home games 13-10 (Tenn), 38-28 (SD).
Ravens (3-2) @ Vikings (5-0)-- Unbeaten, well-balanced Minnesota has yet to score less than 27 points, winning home games 27-24/30-23, but they're run for less than 100 yards in last three games, as teams forcing Favre to beat them and he has, passing for 283-271-288 yards last three games. Ravens lost last two games, they ran ball for 99 ypg in losses, 156.7 in wins. Minnesota is allowing 96 ypg on ground, with 129 (@ Detroit) most they've allowed. AFC North teams are 5-7 vs the spread in non-league games, 3-2 as road underdogs. NFC North teams are 7-3, but 0-2 as home favorites. Ravens scored defensive TD in each of last two games.
Rams (0-5) @ Jaguars (2-3)-- Hapless Rams were -3 in turnovers in each of last three games; they lead NFL in penalties, fumbles lost and are on 15-game losing streak- they've been outscored 80-10 in second half of games, but they did gain 400 yards with 27 first downs vs Minnesota last week, fumbling ball away twice on Viking 2-yard line. Boller has concussion, Bulger has shoulder issues, so St Louis has issues at QB, and other places. Jaguars are very erratic; underdog is 4-1 vs spread in their games (0-1 as favorite). Three of last four St Louis games went over. Longtime Ram WR Holt is in first year with Jags.
Giants (5-0) @ Saints (4-0)-- Subplots include Manning going home to play (this is his first game in Superdome), Shockey facing former team, but this is also battle of unbeatens, potential NFC title game preview. Saints are off bye, none of their four wins are by less than 14 points; only one of their four foes has gained more than 244 yards, so Brees-led offense has protected leads and been more balanced (164.3 rushing ypg this year) than previous Saint outfits. Giants played stiffs last three weeks, running ball for 226-156-220 yards, in games they led by combined score of 62-10 at halftimes. Home favorites are 19-13 vs spread in non-divisional games.
Panthers (1-3) @ Buccaneers (0-5)-- Both teams are struggling, with Carolina having trailed 17-2 in its only win, while Bucs are winless, with only one loss by less than 13 points. Panthers won four of last five visits here, losing 27-3 LY; they're 7-3 in last ten series games, with six of seven wins by 8+ points. Bucs' young QB Johnson has shown mobility, but averaged just 4.0/4.1 ypp in his two starts. Tampa Bay was outscored 51-16 in scond half of its last four games. Bucs haven't had their bye yet, Carolina had theirs two weeks ago, edge Panthers. Home underdogs are 7-3 vs spread in divisional games this season.
Lions (1-4) @ Packers (2-2)-- Health of Green Bay offensive line an issue after Rodgers was sacked 20 times in four games; bye week may have helped. Lions lost nine of last ten in series, losing last five visits here by 3-3-8-21-10 points. Road team is 7-3 vs spread in last 10 series games. Culpepper was 23-37/225 passing in 28-20 home loss to Steelers, Lions' first loss by less than 14 points; it isn't known whether he or Stafford goes here. Packers allowed 15-17 points in their wins, 31-30 in losses- they're 2-1 as a favorite in '09, with its last three games going over total. Detroit allowed 93 points in two road games this year.
Eagles (3-1) @ Raiders (0-5)-- Hard to know lot about Philly teams whose Ws are over Panthers-Chiefs-Bucs, but we know Oakland is non-competitive, with losses in last three games by 20-23-37 points, as behind the scenes soap opera involving head coach and his assault charge hangs over team's head. Philly wins are by 28-20-19 points; this is their first road game since Week 1. Favorites are 4-0 vs spread in their games. Raiders dropped back to pass 19 times last week, were sacked six times, with only 64 net yards. All four Eagle games went over the total, but three of last four Oakland games stayed under. NFC East faves are 7-5 vs spread in non-divisional games, 3-3 as road favorites.
Cardinals (2-2) @ Seahawks (2-3)-- Has team ever been 2-3 with two shutouts before? Home team won eight of last ten series games, with Arizona 1-4 in last five visits here, losing by 3-25-11-21 points. Seattle was outscored 69-36 in five halves Hasselbeck missed- they outscored opponents 79-13 in the five he played. Redbirds been pass-happy last two games, throwing it 97 times, with 28 rushes for 68 yards; they're just 12-46 on 3rd down this year, very poor. Seattle averaged 7.8/7.6 ypp in its three wins, 5.2 or less in its losses. Arizona allowed 10.8/7.4 ypp in its last two games. Three of last four Arizona games stayed under total.
Bills (1-4) @ Jets (3-2)-- Underdog is 9-1 in last ten series games; only once in last those ten games has home side won by more than five points; road team is 4-2 in last six SU. Buffalo is 2-3 in last five visits here, with losses by 2-4-4 points. Jets lost last two games, both on road, including emotional 31-27 loss in Miami late Monday night- they allowed 153-151 rushing yards in last two games, with only one takeaway. Bills scored just 20 points in last three games (three TDs/15 3-outs/35 drives) as rumors are popping up that Jauron's job is in jeopardy. Jets won both their home games by seven points (16-9/24-17).
Titans (0-5) @ Patriots (3-2)-- Winless Tennessee allowed 31+ points in three of last four games, losing last two by 20-22 points; they've lost field position by average of 15 yards/game. 14 of 61 opponent drives have started in Titans' territory. Patriots are 3-0 at home, winning by 1-16-6 pts; they're 2-1 as home favorite. Pats were outscored 13-0 in the second half in both losses, both road games they led at half. Titan opponents are completing 71.5% of passes this season, are 14-27 on 3rd down last two games. AFC East home faves are 4-1 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South road underdogs are just 2-3.
Bears (3-1) @ Falcons (3-1)-- Too early to tell about either team; Chicago won last three games before its bye, but two of their wins were vs Seattle's #2 QB and the Lions; so far this year, Bears outscored opponents 68-24 in 2nd half of games-- in last couple games, they started nine of 22 drives in enemy territory. Atlanta won its two home games 19-7/28-20, covering both as home favorite, but in last two games before its bye, Falcons allowed 440-445 yards, so their defense has issues-- it looked better in last week's 45-10 win at Candlestick. NFC North teams are 7-3 vs spread out of division; AFC South faves are 5-1.
Monday, October 19
Broncos (5-0) @ Chargers (2-2)-- Huge game for San Diego, which falls three games behind surprising Denver in AFC West if they lose here. Broncos lost last three visits here, 48-20/23-3/52-21, but are on serious roll in '09, winning all five games, three in game's last minute- they were underdog in three of five wins. Banged-up Chargers have yet to be ahead at the half; they gave up 31-38 points in their losses, 20-13 in wins- they're rumored to be shopping Shawne Merriman before next week's trade deadline. Bolts are 1-2 as favorite in '09. All five Denver games stayed under total. Both San Diego wins stayed under total; their two losses both went over.
Tips and Trends
Buffalo Bills at New York Jets
Bills: The 1-4 Bills are at their lowest point off a 6-3 home loss to Cleveland last week. This marked Buffalo’s 12th loss in its last 15 games. The Bills have covered four of their past five road games. Despite having Terrell Owens and Lee Evans at wide receiver, Buffalo has scored only 20 points in its last three games. The Bills rank 25th in passing yards. Buffalo’s offensive line has not played well. Rookie offensive tackle Jamon Meredith is scheduled to make his first start. Trent Edwards is completing 58 percent of his pass, most being short throws. The Bills’ banged-up defense should be helped by the return of safety Donte Whitner and linebacker Paul Posluszny. The underdog has covered 19 of the last 27 times in this series. The Bills have covered in four of their last five road meetings versus the Jets.
The Over has cashed the past 4 times the Bills have been a road underdog.
Buffalo is 2-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record.
Offensive tackle Jonathan Scott (ankle) is doubtful.
Linebacker Kawika Mitchell (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 13
Jets (-9.5, O/U 36.5): The Jets aren’t in a great situational spot playing on a short week after losing at Miami on Monday night in the final six seconds, 31-27. Quarterback Mark Sanchez is in the running for Rookie of the Year honors, but the Jets rank 24th in total offense and 28th in passing. Sanchez probably will be missing his favorite target, injured wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery, who leads the team with 24 receptions for 360 yards. Braylon Edwards, though, will be playing in his second game for New York after being acquired from Cleveland. The Jets rank eighth in scoring defense, total defense and pass defense. The Jets play a 3-4 defense. Buffalo has lost 11 in a row to teams using that defensive formation. New York is 5-15-1 against the spread in its last 21 October games. The Jets are 1-6 their past seven as a favorite.
The Jets are 7-3-1 over in their last 11 AFC games.
The Over is 6-2-1 the past nine times these teams have met.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23 (Side of the Day)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons
Bears: The Bears are trying to win four in a row for the first time since 2006. This is a huge revenge game for them. Chicago rallied from a nine-point fourth quarter deficit to take the lead against Atlanta with 11 second left last year, but ended up losing when Jason Elam kicked a 48-yard field goal as time expired. The Bears were idle last week so they should be fresh. Jay Cutler has played much better since throwing a career-worst four interceptions opening week against Green Bay. Cutler has thrown seven touchdown passes with one interception since then. Chicago, though, ranks just 27th in rushing averaging 91.5 yards on the ground. The Bears have covered 11 of their last 15 games in October. They have failed to cover five of their last seven away matchups. The Bears are 30-13-1 to the over in their last 44 games versus NFC teams.
Chicago is 2-11 ATS in its last 13 games during Week 6.
The Under has cashed 8 of the last 11 times the Bears have been on the road.
Linebacker Brian Urlacher (wrist) is out.
Linebacker Hunter Hillenmeyer (ribs) is doubtful.
Linebacker Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) is probable.
Wide receiver Devin Hester (shoulder) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
Falcons (-3, O/U 45.5): The Falcons are 10-1 in the Georgia Dome in their last 11 home games. They’ve gone 8-3 against the spread in those games. Atlanta has won five in a row at home. The Bears have yet to play on a carpet field this season. The Falcons thumped San Francisco, 45-10, on the road last week with Matt Ryan throwing a career-high 329 yards and two touchdowns to Roddy White, who had a team-record 210 receiving yards. Atlanta amassed 477 total yards on offense, its highest mark since 2002. The Falcons, however, are 2-8-1 against the spread in their last 11 games following a straight-up victory of more than 14 points. The Falcons need to tighten up their run defense, where they rank 24th. Atlanta ranks fourth in scoring defense, yielding 15.8 points per game. The over has cashed in 10 of the Falcons’ last 14 games at the Georgia Dome.
The Under is 34-16-2 in the Falcons’ last 52 games following a straight-up victory.
The two teams have gone Under in their past five meetings.
Key Injuries - None.
PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)