NFL News and Notes Sunday 10/24

Week 7 Games

Steelers (4-1) @ Dolphins (3-2) - Home team is 0-5 in Miami games, with Fish losing 31-23/41-14 in pair of divisional home games, allowing six TDs on 17 drives, with no takeaways (-5). Steelers won last four series games by average score of 18-11; they’ve won five of last seven visits here (after losing first six visits to Miami). Pitt averaged 9.5 ypa in Big Ben’s return last week, converting 7-14 on 3rd down; they had averaged 6.04 in four games Ben missed, converting 14-49 (28.6%) on 3rd down. In five games, Fish have yet to start drive in enemy territory; opponents have eight, scoring 20 points. Steelers are 8-14 as road favorite since 2006. Miami is 5-9 as a home dog since 2007.

Bengals (2-3) @ Falcons (4-2) - Cincy is 2-9 vs spread (1-4-1 SU) in game following its last six byes; they’re 3-8-1 vs spread last 12 times they were a post-bye underdog- they’re making only second visit in last 20 years to Atlanta, where Falcons are 2-0 (winning 41-7/16-14) this year. Birds are 11-4-1 as home favorite since ’07. Atlanta is 7-2 vs spread in game before its last nine byes; they allowed only two TDs on 19 drives in two home games, but Eagles’ 10.7 ypa last week is red flag. Falcons are just 15-43 on 3rd down last three games (were 26-51 in first three). NFC South teams are just 2-5-1 vs. spread this year as favorite in non-divisional games; AFC North teams are 6-4-2 vs spread outside their division, 3-2-2 as a dog.

Jaguars (3-3) @ Chiefs (3-3) - Jaguars have losses by 25-25-27 points, but won other three games, scoring average of 30.3 ppg; Garrard had concussion Monday night, am guessing Edwards starts here- there was no #3 QB Monday, so they’ll probably re-sign former #3 QB Nall as backup. Jags averaged 7.4+ ypa in three wins, 6.3/1.4/4.6 in losses; last week in Houston was first time this year Chiefs allowed more than 7.1 ypa. KC forced 11 3/outs on 25 dirves in winning first two home games, allowing 12 ppg. Road trip on short week after dismal performance by Jags Monday night; they’re 6-2 overall vs Chiefs, with four of last five wins by 6 or less points. KC scored 30—35 in their two series wins, averaged 14.3 peg in six losses.

Eagles (4-2) @ Titans (4-2) - Tennessee off solid win Monday night; they’ve scored 29+ points in all four wins, 11-20 in losses; Philly held three of last four opponents to 17 or less points (gave up seven TDs on 45 drives). Titans lost last two home games, to Pitt/Denver; they’re 9-7 as home favorite last 2+ years. Eagles are 3-0 on road, scoring 30 ppg (11 TDs on 36 drives)- they averaged 10.7 ypa vs Falcons last week, but explosive WR Jackson probably out for this (concussion). Eagles won 40-26/34-14 in its pre-bye games last two years. Titans are +11 in turnovers in four wins (12-1), -7 in two losses (2-9). Philly had positive turnover ratio in five of six games. AFC South teams are just 4-6-2 vs spread at home in non-divisional home games this year.

Redskins (3-3) @ Bears (4-2) - Bears were 6-14 on 3rd down in season opener vs. Lions; since then, they’re unspeakably bad 7-60 (11.7%) on 3rd down, 3-40 last three games. Chicago QB’s been sacked 19 times last three games, with only three TDs on last 42 drives, as Cutler shows inability/unwillingless to make quick dumpoff passes to beat blitz that are essential in running Martz Madness. Washington is 11-3 in last 14 series games, winning five of last six played here; average total in last three games is 26.3. Skins scored 16.5 ppg in splitting pair of road games; five of their six games were decided by 6 or less points, with underdogs 4-0-2 vs spread in their games. NFC North teams are 8-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games.

Browns (1-5) @ Saints (4-2) - All six Cleveland games have been within six points at half, with Browns leading four of six, but they’ve been outscored 68-27 in second half of games, losing road games by 3-7-18 points (1-1-1 as road dog this year, 6-4-1 in last 11 as road dog). Road team won all three series games; Browns won 21-16/24-15 in previous visits here. Saints are 0-2-1 as home fave this year, scoring 14-24-16 points (six TDs on 27 home drives); in their two losses, they had three TDs, three FGs on eight red zone drives (six TDs, five FGs on 14 red zone drives in their wins). Browns’ QB McCoy was respectable in NFL debut last week, but They’ve still turned ball over three times in each of last two games, and few teams can win doing that. NFC South teams just 2-5-2 vs. spread as non-divisional favorite.

Bills (0-5) @ Ravens (4-2) - You watch Edwards play QB For Jags Monday night and you wonder how a winless team can just cut him; Bills have been terrible this year, giving up 34-38-38-36 points in last four games, allowing 17 TDs on 42 drives. They even lost by 10 at home to Jags when they were +3 in turnovers- that doesn’t happen much. You’d think they’d have shot at Ravens taking them lightly, but doubtful with former Bill McGehee running ball for angry Raven team that lost tough OT game in Foxboro last week. Only one of four Baltimore wins this year is by more than seven points. Average total in last four series games is 27.0, with home side winning last three; Baltimore just 2-6 vs. spread in last eight pre-bye games (1-3 as favorite). Bills are 4-1 SU in last five post-bye games (5-2-1 as post-bye dog since ’95).

|49ers (1-5) @ Panthers (0-5) - These two are combined 1-10, but were favored in six of the 11 games. Carolina going back to Moore at QB after scoring 8.5 ppg in last four games (four TDs on 47 drives); they’ve won six of last eight games vs. 49ers, with average total in last three 52.0. Niners got first win at home in rain last week; they’re 0-3 on road this year, scoring 6-10-14 points, and 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorite since 2002. Panthers lost last two games despite being positive in TO’s both games; they’re 0-3 at home, scoring 7-7-6 points- since ’06, they’re 4-6 as a home dog. NFC West teams are 1-3 as non-divisional favorites; NFC South teams are 3-9-2 against the spread in non-divisional games, 1-4 if an underdog.

Rams (3-3) @ Bucs (3-2) - St Louis has trailed at half just once this year, but they’ve lost last five road games overall, scoring just 9.2 ppg; they’ve been outscored 34-3 in second half of last two games. Jackson needs big day against Buc defense that in last three games gave up average of 187.3 rushing yards/week. Bucs are 3-0 if they score 17+ points; they were held to 13/6 in losses- they don’t have a sack in last three games, so Bradford should have time to hit his newest WR, 6-5 Alexander. Bucs were outscored 55-13 in first half of last three games. In three wins, Rams averaged 6.1/6.4/5.4 ypa- they were held under five yards/pass attempt in all three losses. Since start of ’07 season, Rams are 10-15 as road dogs; they’re 1-1 on road this year.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Seahawks (3-2) - Battle for first in better-than-advertised NFC West. Arizona won six of last seven series games, winning last four, the last three by 11+ points; Redbirds won last two visits here, 27-20/26-3, but they lost last two road games 41-7/41-10 after winning road opener at St Louis. Seahawks won both home games, 31-6 over 49ers, 27-20 over Chargers. In last two games, Arizona has four TDs, but three of them were scored by defense, and fourth came on 2-yard drive where it took three plays to score (on fumble recovery by an OL). Undrafted rookie QB Hall gets first road start here; Arizona averaged 4.6 ypa or less in each of last four games, giving up 13 sacks in last two games. Over is 4-0 in Cardinals’ last four games, 3-1 in Seattle’s last four.

Patriots (4-1) @ Chargers (2-4) - Schizophrenic San Diego is 0-4 on road, but won its two home games 38-13/41-10, scoring 10 TDs on 20 drives; they’re 2-4 despite being favored by 4.5+ points in every game so far- they’ve got nine takeaways (+5) n their two wins, two (-8) in their losses. Patriots are 1-1 on road, but needed TDs on INT, kick return and blocked FG to pull away in Miami (first NFL team to score TDs that way in same game). First road game without star WR Moss—could they be looking ahead to Vikings’ (and Moss’s) visit to Foxboro next week? Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, with teams splitting last six after Pats had won previous 10. Since 2003, Bolts are 27-16-2 as home favorite, Patriots 15-5-1 as road underdogs. Four of five New England games went over the total.

Raiders (2-4) @ Broncos (2-4) - Raiders are 10-2 as road underdog in division games last four years. Should be noted that home favorites in divisional games off to dreadful 2-11 start vs spread this year. Road team won last four games in this rivalry, with Raiders winning last two visits here, after losing 11 of previous 13. Since racing to 6-0 start LY, Denver is 4-12 in its last 16 games, losing in last 1:30 last week on long pass interference penalty when Jets had 4th-and-7 and appeared dead. Broncos did cover only time they were favored this year; they’re now 5-19-1 as home favorite since start of ’06 season. Only one of four Raider losses is by more than eight points; they’re 0-3 on road, though—Janikowski’s missed FG at end of Arizona game is going to haunt them at season’s end.

Vikings (2-3) @ Packers (3-3) - Favre Bowl III finds Packers just second team in last 5+ years to play consecutive weeks in OT (’07 Jets played consecutive OT games, but had their bye week in between the two games). LY Steelers split consecutive road games in OT, then came home and lost to Oakland as 14-point favorites. Vikings swept Pack LY, 30-23/38-26; they’re 0-2 on road this year, losing 14-9 (+5) in Superdome, 29-20 (+4) to Jets, going 3/out on 11 of 23 drives. Key variables here are whether Packer LB Matthews will be healthy enough to torment now-immobile Favre into hurried throws, and how much of playbook has Moss digested. Last four Packer games were all decided by 2-3 points, with dog covering all four. Five of six Green Bay games stayed under total.

Giants (4-2) @ Cowboys (1-4) - These celebration penalties are a problem for Dallas; in their last three losses, they lost field position battle by 13-15-19 yards, which is a lot!!! Dallas lost four of last five series games; average total in last nine series tilts is surprisingly high 51.8. Over their last 12 visits here, Giants went LWLWLWLWLWLW, so if that holds, Dallas wins. Immature Cowboys got another 15-yard penalty after a TD last week, then allowed kick return for TD to open second half, last time they led in game- they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 30.5 ppg. Giants won last three games, allowing just 11 ppg (three TDs on 38 drives); over last 20 years, they’re 4-2 vs. spread as a pre-bye dog. Giants have eight takeaways in their last three games (+2).

Gridiron Angles - Week 7
By Vince Akins

Redskins at Bears - The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 01, 2006 when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since November 05, 2006 as a home favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Bears are 7-0 OU (15.4 ppg) since October 12, 1997 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Bears are 0-7 OU (-10.6 ppg) since November 16, 2008 versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss.

Raiders at Broncos - The Raiders are 0-9-1 ATS (-12.3 ppg) since October 17, 2004 when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Raiders are 0-6 ATS (-5.9 ppg) since October 24, 2004 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since January 22, 2006 at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since January 22, 2006 as a home favorite after playing at home. The Broncos are 9-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since October 30, 2005 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog.

Rams at Buccaneers - The Rams are 9-0-1 ATS (8.0 ppg) since October 8, 2006 when they won against a non-divisional opponent last game. The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since November 25, 1991 within 3 of pick when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 10-0-1 ATS (15.1 ppg) since October 13, 1996 when they lost by 21+ last game, one normal rest. The Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since December 21, 2008 at home after playing as a dog. The Buccaneers are 7-0 ATS (15.0 ppg) since December 23, 2001 within 3 of pick when they are one game above 500. The Buccaneers are 0-6 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 25, 2009 after a straight up loss.

Patriots at Chargers - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since October 27, 1991 as a dog the week after playing an overtime game. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (17.4 ppg) since October 20, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (8.3 ppg) since January 02, 2000 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed an average of fewer than 275 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Patriots are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since September 10, 1995 as a dog after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Chargers are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 28, 1997 within 3 of pick when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

Jaguars at Chiefs - The Chiefs are 0-7-1 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 19, 2006 as a home favorite after a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since October 07, 2007 at home when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 04, 2007 as a favorite. The Chiefs are 0-10 OU (-7.2 ppg) since September 28, 1992 after a loss against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-9.4 ppg) since December 17, 2005 the week after scoring more than 24 points and losing.

Steelers at Dolphins - The Steelers are 0-12 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since September 30, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The League is 0-8-1 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since December 07, 2008 as a road favorite after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.3 ppg) since September 18, 2006 as a road favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Dolphins are 0-13 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since December 15, 2003 at home after playing on the road when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Dolphins are 0-9-1 OU (-10.2 ppg) since September 20, 1992 at home when they are one game above 500 after a straight up win.

Bengals at Falcons - The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since September 21, 1997 on the road the week after their bye. The Falcons are 9-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when they lost by 7+ last game. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since October 31, 2004 the week after as a dog in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Falcons are 0-7 OU (-4.4 ppg) since November 29, 1992 as a home favorite when their dps was negative in their last three games. The Falcons are 7-0 OU (14.0 ppg) since December 15, 2002 the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average.

49ers at Panthers - The 49ers are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 03, 1996 on the road the week after a win in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 11, 2001 after a win against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half. The Panthers are 9-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since Secember 24, 1995 when they trailed by 14+ after one quarter on normal rest last game. The 49ers are 0-12 OU (-7.3 ppg) since December 03, 1989 as a road favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Bills at Ravens - The Bills are 8-0 ATS (13.2 ppg) since December 20, 1992 as a road dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The Bills are 8-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. Teams are 10-0 ATS (15.2 ppg) since January 2000 when they went to OT with the Patriots last game. The Ravens are 0-9 OU (-10.4 ppg) since December 31, 2006 when they won their last two home games. The Ravens are 0-7 OU (-9.8 ppg) since December 31, 2006 after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.

Browns at Saints - The Browns are 9-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when they threw for 250+ yards last game. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 16, 2007 when their DPA was negative on the road last game. The Saints are 7-0-1 ATS (13.4 ppg) since November 16, 2008 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Saints are 7-0-2 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 16, 2008 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-4.9 ppg) since November 08, 1992 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-14.7 ppg) since September 22, 1991 as a road dog the week before their bye. The Browns are 0-6 OU (-15.8 ppg) since November 30, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Saints are 8-0 OU (22.1 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a favorite the week after a game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays.

Cardinals at Seahawks - The Cardinals are 0-8 ATS (-6.5 ppg) since December 1999 when they trailed at half last game and won by 7+. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since September 07, 2008 vs a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Seahawks are 0-13 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since December 18, 2005 when they covered by a TD+ last game and committed 0 or 1 turnovers. The Cardinals are 13-0 OU (14.7 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a road dog when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (18.8 ppg) since November 26, 2006 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date.

Eagles at Titans - The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since November 10, 2003 as a road dog when they won and covered their last two games. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 26, 1993 when they get a team off a Monday Night game. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since November 25, 2002 as a road dog the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Titans are 0-9-1 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since January 19, 2003 when they had more than normal rest last game and it wasn't on a Sunday. The Eagles are 10-0-1 OU (10.5 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent. The Titans are 11-0-1 OU (11.3 ppg) since October 31, 1999 within 3 of pick at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

Vikings at Packers - The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (12.9 ppg) since November 11, 1990 on the road the week after a straight up win in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 0-7-2 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since January 16, 2005 as a road dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a road dog when they lost their last two road games.

Giants at Cowboys - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (17.1 ppg) since September 21, 1992 when they scored 21+ points and failed to cover by less than three points last game. The Cowboys are 10-0-1 ATS (7.4 ppg) since November 02, 2003 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since September 15, 1997 at home vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-13.4 ppg) since November 28, 1996 as a favorite when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. The Cowboys are 0-7 OU (-8.1 ppg) since September 24, 1989 the week after as a dog in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 0-6 OU (-12.2 ppg) since December 30, 2007 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

NFL Tech Trends - Week 7
By Bruce Marshall

PITTSBURGH at MIAMI... Interestingly, the road team has covered in Miami’s first five games TY (Dolphins 0-2 at home). Miami now 6-20 vs. line at home since late ‘06 (5-14 for Sparano). Dolphins also "over" 9-1 last 10 at home. Steelers have won and covered first two on road TY. Tech edge-Steelers and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CINCINNATI at ATLANTA... Cincy just 10-16 vs. line away since ‘07. Falcons 14-8 vs. number since start of 2009 season. Atlanta also "under" 7-3 last 10 at Georgia Dome. Tech edge-Falcons and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at KANSAS CITY... Even after loss on Monday vs. Titans, Jags have made a bit of a recovery this season, now 3-3 vs. line after 5-11 a year ago and 9-23 the previous two seasons. Jags also "over" 5-2 since late LY. Chiefs also improved with 4-1 spread marks. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on recent Jags "totals" trends.

PHILADELPHIA at TENNESSEE... Birds have won SU their first 3 away TY (2-1 vs. line) and lost their first two at home. Note Andy Reid was 0-3 as road dog LY, but even so, counting last week’s cover at SF, Philly 11-4 last 15 in role. Titans just 4-8 last 12 as home chalk. Also "over’ 12-6 last 18 at LP Field. Tech edge-Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

WASHINGTON at CHICAGO... Lovie "under" first two at Solider Field TY, now "under" 8-3 last 11 as host. Bears just 5-10 as home chalk since ‘07 (0-1m TY). Tech edge-"Under," based on Bears home "totals" trends.

CLEVELAND at NEW ORLEANS... Saints 5-13-1 last 19 on board since mid ‘09. Browns 6-2-1 vs. line last 8 on road, and Brownies "under" 14-7-1 last 22 away since late ‘07. Tech edge-Browns and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

BUFFALO at BALTIMORE... Bills 1-4 vs. line TY. John Harbaugh 11-4 as home chalk. Baltimore "over" first 2 at home TY but "under" 4-2 overall, and "under" 20-11 last 31 on board. Tech edge-Ravens and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

SAN FRANCISCO at CAROLINA... Panthers no covers yet at home (0-3). John Fox "under" first three at home TY and 9-2 last 11 at home, and "under" 20-7 at Charlotte since ‘07. Tech edge-49ers and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at TAMPA BAY... Bucs 1-9-1 vs. line at home for Raheem Morris, also "under" 14-8 overall since Morris arrived LY. Rams have covered 4 of last 5, all as dog, TY, and "under" 7-3 away since Spagnuolo arrived LY. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ARIZONA at SEATTLE... Seattle 2-0 SU and vs. line a home, 1-2 SU and vs. line away. Seahawks actually 9-3 vs. line last 12 as host. Cards, though, have won and covered last 4 and 6 of last 7 in series. Whisenhunt 1-2 as dog TY but 11-3 last 14 in role. Tech edge-slight to Cards, based on Whisenhunt dog mark.

NEW ENGLAND at SAN DIEGO... Belichick only 8-7 as dog since ‘05. Norv 2-0 SU and vs. line at home TY, also "over" first two and "over" 9-4 last 13 as host. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.

OAKLAND at DENVER... This has turned into a very odd visitor-oriented series the past two years, with road team winning and covering all four meetings since ‘08. In fact, Raiders have covered last 4 at Denver. Broncos also "over" 5-1 TY and10-1 last 11 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over" and Raiders, based on series and "totals" trends.

MINNESOTA at GREEN BAY... Vikings won and covered both meetings with Favre LY after Pack had covered previous 4. Last four "over" in series. Pack only 6-7 vs. line last 12 as host. Tech edge-slight to Vikings and "over," based on recent series trends.

NY GIANTS at DALLAS (Monday, October 25)...Giants won and covered both meetings LY and 4 of last 5 in series. Last 2 and 5 of last 7 "over" in series. Wade Phillips 0-2 vs. line at home TY, also "over" first 2 as host. Giants "over" 6-3 on road since LY and "over" 14-7 last 21 overall. Tech edge-"Over" and Giants, based on "totals" and team trends.

Tips and Trends

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

PATRIOTS: New England is coming off their best game of the season, a 23-20 SU win over Baltimore. As a result of that win, New England stands 4-1 SU on the season. The Patriots are clearly playing with a chip on their shoulder, as they feel they are a bit underrated this year, especially without star WR Randy Moss. From an ATS standpoint, that simply isn't the case though, as they are only 2-2-1 this year. The Patriots will be playing their 3rd road game of the season today, as they have gone 1-1 both SU and ATS thus far. QB Tom Brady will need to be on point today, because points are sure to be put on the scoreboard. Without a legit running game, the Patriots have struggled to score points on the road this season. Regardless, New England is averaging an NFL high 30.8 PPG. Brady has thrown for 1,200 YDS this year, including 10 TD's against 4 INT's. Brady has plenty of receiving threats, including the addition of WR Deion Branch. Branch had 9 receptions for 98 YDS and a TD in his first game back with the Patriots last week. Defensively, the Patriots are still amongst the worst in the NFL. New England is allowing 23.2 PPG and 383 YPG overall this year. New England is 13-6-3 ATS in their last 22 games as a road underdog.

Patriots are 1-4 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Over is 13-6 last 19 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Fred Taylor (toe) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

CHARGERS: (-3, O/U 48) San Diego might be the easiest team to predict in the NFL. When San Diego is at home you back them, and when they are on the road you fade them. Whether it's SU or ATS, the facts are simple. San Diego is 2-4 both SU and ATS, undefeated at home and winless on the road this year. Coach Turner has to be on the hot seat, as clearly San Diego is far more talented than their 2-4 record would indicate. QB Phillip Rivers is putting up huge offensive numbers, all for not. Rivers has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this season, the only QB in the NFL over 2,000 YDS. Rivers leads an offense that is averaging 26.2 PPG this year, 5th best in the NFL. Defensively, San Diego has slipped up over the past 2 weeks. San Diego has allowed St. Louis and Oakland combine for 55 points. The Chargers special teams have been arguably the worst in football. Time and time again this unit has let down the whole team, and cost them a victory. The Chargers are 6-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. San Diego is 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 home games against a team with a winning road record. The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games in October.

Chargers are 6-1 ATS last 7 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (ankle) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (SIDE of the Day)

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers

VIKINGS: Minnesota is coming off a big win over Dallas, a game that many considered a must win situation. The Vikings are 2-3 both SU and ATS overall this season. Minnesota will have to play their most complete game of the season today if they are to beat an emotional situation in Green Bay. The Vikings players will all have to rally around QB Brett Favre. Favre has really struggled this season, both on the field and away from it. RB Adrian Peterson can certainly help his team out with a big rushing performance today. Peterson leads the league with 110.6 rushing YPG this season. He's only scored 4 TD's this season, and Minnesota is certainly counting on that to change. The Vikings are led by their defense, a unit that is only allowing 18.7 PPG this year. Minnesota defends the pass well, as they only allow 192 passing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. Against the highly aggressive Packers aerial attack, the Vikings pass defense will be severely tested. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the NFC. Minnesota is 3-11-2 ATS in their last 16 games as a road underdog up to a field goal. The Vikings are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass.

Vikings are 1-5 ATS last 6 road games overall.
Under is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 23

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44) Green Bay is 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS overall this season, losing all 3 games by exactly 3 points. The Packers have lost back to back games, both of which happened in overtime. Tonight's game against the Vikings will represent the first time this season the Packers won't be a double digit favorite at home. Motivation isn't likely to be an issue tonight, as Green Bay welcomes Brett Favre back home. The Vikings beat Green Bay both meetings last year, so revenge is certainly at the forefront for the Packers. QB Aaron Rodgers will need to have a big game tonight, and he's more than capable. Rodgers has thrown for 1,546 YDS this season, along with 10 TD's in leading this offense. Since the injury to RB Ryan Grant, the Packers have become even more dependent on their passing attack. Defensively, only 1 team has scored more than 20 PTS against Green Bay in regulation. Overall, the Packers are allowing 18.7 PPG, a stat they would love to improve on against their bitter nemesis. The Packers are 5-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. The Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as the listed favorite. Green Bay is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on grass.

Packers are 17-8 ATS last 25 games against the NFC North.
Over is 9-3 last 12 home games against a team with a losing road record.

Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)

NFL Week 8 Weather Report

You know it’s almost winter when the weather gets nasty. And with the football season almost at the midway mark, NFL teams are dealing with some less-than-perfect playing conditions this Sunday. Here’s a look at how the Week 8 weather can impact your bets:

Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears (-3, 40)

The Windy City could be the soggy city with the forecasts calling for possible thundershowers Sunday afternoon. There is a 50 percent chance of precipitation with game-time temperatures dropping into the mid 60s. There will also be a 14-mph breeze blowing south straight down the field. Both teams depend on the pass, which could be grounded by the slick footing, wet footballs and blowing winds.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans (-3, 42.5)

The skies should be mostly clear in Nashville but it could get a bit blustery. Winds between 15 and 20 mph will screech southwest from corner to corner, keeping quarterbacks Kevin Kolb and Vince Young or Kerry Collins (depending on Young’s injuries) fighting the breeze all game. The rain isn’t supposed to roll into Tennessee until later in the evening.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins (+3, 41)

Things should be fine come the 1 p.m. ET kickoff, but will get worse as the game goes on. The forecast in Miami is calling for isolated thunderstorms starting around 3 p.m. ET. While the game-time temps will be in the mid 80s, there might be a 17-mph wind blowing out of the East, across the field. With the weather getting worse in the second half, perhaps a look at the second-half total would be a sharp play after two quarters.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 39.5)

Would you expect anything less than rain in Seattle? The forecast is calling for the wet stuff to hit along with the 4:05 p.m. ET kickoff. And not only will it be very loud and uncomfortable at Qwest Field, but it will be cold and windy, with game-time temps falling into the low 50s with wind reaching up to 20 mph. The Seahawks are 2-0 SU and ATS at home this season while the Cardinals will be playing in the exact opposite of desert weather, far from their weather-control domed home in Arizona.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-3, 48)

I shit you not – it could actually rain in San Diego Sunday. The city is notorious for fantastic football weather, but our editors would deliver a helmet-to-helmet hit if we didn’t mention the possibility of the Chargers playing in the muck at home. The forecast is calling for cloudy skies with a chance of rain later on in the day. With this game starting just after 4 p.m. ET, that weather could come into play in the fourth quarter - perfect time for the Pats to pull out a late cover on the road.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos (-8, 42.5)

We’ll admit it, we had our fingers crossed that there might be snow in the Week 8 forecast. Denver won’t deliver the white stuff this Sunday but will subject the warm-weather Raiders to game-time temps dipping into the low 50s while a 12-mpg wind chills Invesco Field. Oakland is 0-3 (1-2 ATS) on the road this season but has covered in six of the last eight games with Denver.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 44)

Brett Favre isn’t the only one paying a visit to the Lambeau faithful. The late-October weather comes to Wisconsin, bringing with it scattered thundershowers, 13-mph winds and temperatures that could fall into low 50s by the time this NFC North war is said and done. The Vikes aren’t afraid of the cold weather, beating the Packers at Lambeau last November. But that rain could make passing difficult, as it did for Favre when Minnesota took on the New Jets in a wet and wild Monday night game two weeks ago.

NFL Week 7's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By SCOTT COOLEY

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens (-13, 40)

Bills run defense vs. Ravens run offense

Chan Gailey stampeded into Buffalo thinking he could fix the franchise’s problems with the whisk of a magic wand. Five weeks later, some of the changes he attempted to make are being disposed of.

The Bills ran a 4-3 defense for many years but Gailey implemented a 3-4. Most of the personnel on his lineup had never run that scheme so they had to adapt to new techniques and positioning. After getting shredded for more than 200 rushing yards the last three games, Gailey has been experimenting with the old 4-3 defense.

"We felt like we need to get some bigger people on the field to help us in that respect," he said. "So, to be honest with you, it's not a shift of philosophy. It's a shift in necessity."

Buffalo is giving up 182.4 rushing yards per game—the worst mark in the league by almost 30 yards. The run defense is allowing nearly five yards per carry and has surrendered seven touchdowns this season.

Baltimore is getting back into its run-first groove. Ray Rice has led the NFL in offensive touches for two straight weeks which has the Ravens averaging better than 110 yards per game.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 40.5)

Max Hall vs. Qwest Field

Some people may not make much of home-field advantage in the NFL, but the 12th Man in Seattle really does give the Seahawks an added edge.

“You definitely have that you-against-the-world feeling when you go on the field,” Larry Fitzgerald said. “It’s the loudest stadium you’ll play in.”

In 2005, the Qwest crowd noise aided in 11 false starts by the Giants offense. Since the stadium opened in 2002, Arizona has committed 18 false starts including three in last year’s contest.

Max Hall was able to knock off New Orleans in his first NFL start but playing on the road poses an entirely new challenge. A rookie quarterback is going to get harassed, abused and exposed at Qwest Field so mistakes could be aplenty Sunday.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers (-3, 47)

Patriots defense vs. Chargers offense

The Chargers have been the most Jekyll-and-Hyde team when it comes to playing on the road or at home. They’ve dropped all four of their road games in 2010 but have won decisively inside the cozy confines of Qualcomm.

At home, San Diego has outscored its opposition 79-23. The offense averaged 448.0 yards in those games while converting six of its eight red-zone opportunities.

Despite their porous record and sluggish start, the Chargers rank first in the league in total offense (432.7 ypg) and fifth in scoring (26.2 ppg). Phillip Rivers is letting it fly this season, posting more than 315 yards a game through the air.

The Patriots are ranked 29th against the pass this year, allowing 273.4 yards per game and 11 touchdowns. They are giving up more than 23 points an outing while ranking 30th in total defense (383.0 ypg).

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-13, 43.5)

Browns pass defense vs. Saints pass offense

Cleveland spent a lot of time and money during the offseason to boost its secondary. The investment hasn’t returned dividends.

The Browns allow nearly 230 yards per game through the air which ranks 21st in the NFL. They’ve surrendered 11 passing touchdowns while only nabbing four interceptions. Eric Wright and Sheldon Brown have been so ineffective rookie Joe Haden has been thrust into more playing time than anticipated.

New Orleans finally discovered its ground game last week after rushing for 212 yards against the Buccaneers. A balanced attack will only help open up things for Drew Brees and the fifth-ranked passing offense (270.2 ypg).

"We just know the importance of the run game and obviously the success that allowed us to have last year," Brees said. "You can't be one-dimensional in this league."

Where The Action Is: NFL Week 7 Line Moves
By Greg Sindall

Pittsburgh Steelers at Miami Dolphins

Opening line: Pittsburgh -3 -105, 40
Current line: Pittsburgh -3 -120, 41

An overwhelming 86 percent of the action is on the Steelers, while 67 percent of the action on the total is on over.

Cincinnati Bengals at Atlanta Falcons

Opening line: Atlanta -4, 42.5
Current line: Atlanta -3.5, 43

Early sharp money on the over caused the line to move a half point and the over has also taken 88 percent of the total action. Sixty-two percent of the action on the side is on Atlanta.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

Opening line: Jacksonville -9.5, 37.5
Current line: Jacksonville -9.5, 37.5

This line did not open until late in the week because we were waiting to see who would start at QB for the Jags. With Jacksonville starting a third stringer at quarterback, early money has come in on the Chiefs (69 percent). With so much money on a large favorite, 78 percent of the action on the total is naturally on over.

Philadelphia Eagles at Tennessee Titans

Opening line: Tennessee -3, 43
Current line: Tennessee -3 +100, 42.5

Sharp money on the Eagles caused the price on the side to be adjusted slightly, but overall action is relatively split with the Titans taking 55 percent of the money so far. Eighty-six percent of the money on the total is on over.

Washington Redskins at Chicago Bears

Opening line: Chicago -3 +100, 40
Current line: Chicago -3 +105, 40

Sharp money and 78 percent of the total action is on Washington, mostly at +3 -120. Bettors are expecting scoring in this game as 72 percent of the action is on over.

Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints

Opening line: New Orleans -13.5, 43.5
Current line: New Orleans -13.5, 43

Nobody is giving the Browns a chance as both sharp and public action is on the Saints to cover the big number (72 percent). The over has taken 63% of the action so far.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Opening line: Baltimore -13.5, 37.5
Current line: Baltimore -13.5, 40.5

The Bills are one of the public’s favorite teams to fade and this week is no different as 82 percent of the action is on Baltimore. Sharp money came in on the over early causing the line to move and 66 percent of the total action is on over.

San Francisco 49ers at Carolina Panthers

Opening line: San Francisco -3, 34.5
Current line: San Francisco -3, 35.5

Carolina is one of the few teams the 49ers could be road favorites against. Most people think the Panthers will remain winless as 81 percent of the action is on San Francisco. Sharp action came in on over early in the week moving the line and 73 percent of the overall action is on over, mostly at 35.5.

St. Louis Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Opening line: Tampa Bay -2.5, 38
Current line: Tampa Bay -3, 38

Most of the sharp money is on the Bucs at -2.5 but they only have 58 percent of the total action so far. Action on the total is one-sided with 83 percent on over.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks

Opening line: Seattle -5, 40.5
Current line: Seattle -6.5, 40

Fifty-eight percent of the action is on Seattle and most of the sharp money is on the Seahawks at -6. Eighty percent of the money on the total is on over.

New England Patriots at San Diego Chargers

Opening line: San Diego -3, 48
Current line: San Diego -2, 47.5

Early sharp money on New England moved the line off the key number and the public has been following suit as 86 percent of the overall action is on the Patriots. The public expects a shootout as 78 percent of the action is on the over.

Oakland Raiders at Denver Broncos

Opening line: Denver -7.5, -41.5
Current line: Denver -8, 42.5

Action on the side is dead even with 50 percent on each side, but sharp money on the Broncos moved the line a half point. The over is seeing 70 percent of the money which caused the line to move up a full point.

Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David

Week 6 Recap

The ‘over’ produced another winning week with an 8-6 ledger. On the season, the ‘over’ has improved to 47-41-2 (53%). Even though the scoreboard operator has been working extra lately, some bettors have had their string of luck and we’ve touched on a couple games in our “Bad Beats” section. Don’t be surprised to see the ‘under’ bounce back this weekend, especially when you look at the bye clubs. Detroit (24.3 PPG), Indianapolis (27.2 PPG), Houston (25.5 PPG) and the New York Jets (26.5 PPG) are all ranked high in points per games and all will be enjoying the break.

Bad Beats of the Week

Detroit-N.Y. Giants: Two words – Jason Hansen. Not only did his kick in the first half cash ‘over’ tickets but his late field goal helped ‘over’ backers again too. And both of them were 50-yarders as well. It’s really a shame that this guy plays in Detroit.

Pittsburgh-Cleveland: The Steelers led 7-3 at halftime and 14-3 after three quarters. Up 21-10 with just under two minutes left, Cleveland rookie QB Colt McCoy tossed an interception deep in territory and Pitt was content on running out the clock. Hard to question head coach Eric Mangini for calling timeouts since he was down two scores but Pitt tossing a touchdown pass on third-down was a tad surprising. Pitt not only covered the spread (13.5) but the 28-10 final jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 37.

Seattle-Chicago: Even though this game has a combined 27 points at the break, the game slowed down big-time in the second as Seattle held a 23-13 late. The Seahawks couldn’t run out the clock late and when you punt 10 times in a game, sooner or later the Bears’ Devin Hester will get you and he did with an 83-yard scamper late in the fourth quarter. The late seven helped the combined 43 points slid ‘over’ the closing number of 37 ½.

‘Over’ in the Afternoon

In last week’s installment of TT, we touched on the crazy ‘over’ run in the late games. Prior to Week 6, the ‘over’ had gone 13-6-1 in the 20 late afternoon games and that number is 13-4 if you take out Week 1’s results. Last Sunday, all three of the afternoon games were on pace to go ‘under’ after the first 30 minutes but that changed quickly. Sure enough, the ‘over’ chasers were rewarded as the Jets-Broncos tilt saw 27 points in the second half and the Cowboys-Vikings contest had 24 points posted in the last two quarters. San Francisco’s 17-9 win over Oakland never threatened the closing number of 41. This Sunday, bettors will be given another three-pack to analyze and all three have numbers of 40 or higher.

Arizona at Seattle: The Cardinals (4-1) and Seahawks (3-1-1) have both been solid ‘over’ wagers this season, plus this series has been nothing but shootouts over (7-3) the past 10 meetings. It should be noted that this week’s total (40.5) is much lower than any of the previous encounters just mentioned, which tells you that these attacks aren’t as potent as they once were.

New England at San Diego: Similar to the above matchup, the Patriots (4-1) and Chargers (4-2) have helped ‘over’ bettors cash often this season, even though both teams watched the ‘under’ cash in their Week 6 contests. The Chargers have put up 38 and 41 in their two homes games this season, both of those games easily going ‘over’ the number.

Oakland at Denver: Once again we have another matchup with two ‘over’ teams in the Raiders (4-2) and Broncos (5-1). Oakland’s quarterback situation could limit this meeting, but Denver’s ability to pass the ball lately with Kyle Orton has opened up some eyes. The last four head-to-head matchups between the two have watched the ‘over/under’ go 2-2.

‘Under’ the Lights

Does anybody remember the ‘over’ run last year on Monday Night Football? It started out with an 8-1 run through the first nine weeks and then it tempered for the remainder of the season. This year, the ‘under’ holds a 4-3 record after seven weeks but you can make a serious argument that the ‘under’ should be 7-0. If you ask any first-half total bettors, they’ll be the first to tell you that the ‘under’ is 7-0 on MNF this season. Will that trend continue this weekend in Dallas when the Cowboys and Giants tangle? Make a note that last season, the Giants won a pair of shootouts (31-24, 33-31) over the Cowboys.

Fearless Predictions

Well, somebody is laughing to the bank and it’s not me. The Best Bets (0-2) started out poorly but the Lions-Giants outcome was tough to stomach (see above). Still we hit the Three-Team Teaser (1-0), so the deficit on the season is only $120. Lock and load folks, I’m sweeping this week.

Best Over: Browns-Saints 43

Best Under: Steelers-Dolphins 41

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Browns-Saints 34
Under Steelers-Dolphins 50
Under Raiders-Broncos 51 1/2

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