NFL News and Notes Sunday 10/25

NFL: Betting Guide - Streaks, Notes, Trends!
By SportsPic

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders

Jets, darlings of the NFL opening the season (3-0, 3-0 ATS) have seen their star QB Marc Sanchez play like a true rookie the past three weeks hitting just 45.0% of his passes (36-of-80) for 429 total yards 1 TD and 8 picks in losses to Saints, Dolphins and most recently lowly Bills. Meanwhile, Raiders and their sputtering QB JaMarcus Russell chucking 2 more picks this week upset Eagles 13-9. Russell hitting 45.6% of his passes (68-of-149) with 2 TD's 6 interceptions sets this up as one ugly matchup. The expected 6-points on the home duds looks interesting knowing Raiders are 8-2 (6-2-1 ATS) hosting Jets and that New York is 3-11-1 ATS as favorites of eight or less including 1-5 ATS on the road and are 0-5 ATS L2Y's vs AFC West opponents. Note: home dogs of 4 to 6 points are 5-2 ATS this season

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants

Taken behind the woodshed this past weekend in New Orleans the New York Giants return to the comfort of Giants Stadium looking to bounce back against visiting Arizona Cardinals. Giants have ideal conditions on their side, G-Men are 10-2 (7-4-1 ATS) hosting NFC West opponents and we find Cardinals 1-15 (5-11 ATS) on the highway vs NFC East squads, 4-16 (5-14-1 ATS) on the road in October and a dreadful 6-28 (14-20 ATS) playing teams from in the Eastern Time Zone.

NFL Week 7 NFL Games

Chargers (2-3) @ Chiefs (1-4)-- Disappointing San Diego travelling off short work week after damaging 34-23 home loss to Denver; Bolts allowed 30+ in all three of their losses- they've yet to run ball for more than 77 yards in a game this season. Chiefs got first win last without scoring TD at Redskins; they're +5 in turnovers last three games, but have only three first half touchdowns in six games. Chargers are 3-2 in last five visits here (three of five decided by 3 or less points); they beat Chiefs twice LY, both times by a point. Three of last four games for both teams went over the total. Home teams are 1-3 vs spread in AFC West games.

Colts (5-0) @ Rams (0-6)-- Been full year since Rams last won, not lotta hope here for winless St Louis club thats been outscored 96-20 in second half so far this year-- if they allowed 492 yards to Jaguars (166 running, 326 passing) it'll be long day vs Manning coming off bye. Colts scored 31-34-31 points in last three games, converted 16 of last 27 on third down and covered four games in a row, scoring 15 TDs on 39 drives with only seven FG tries, so they're puttng ball in end zone when they get close. Rams allowed 36-38 points in first two home games (GB-Minn). Three of last four St Louis games went over the total.

Bears (3-2) @ Bengals (4-2)-- Cincy won four of last five games, but Houston burned them for 385 passing yards in upset loss last week. Bears scored 15-14 points in their losses, averaged 30 ppg in their wins- no one has averaged six yards/pass attempt against Chicago this year. Bears scored once in four trips to Atlanta red zone last week, deciding factor in 21-14 loss. Bengals ran ball for average of 126.8 ypg in their wins, 86-83 in losses. NFC teams are 10-8 vs the AFC this year. Over is 3-1-1 in last five Bengal games. Favorites are 6-0 vs spread in NFC North teams' non-divisional games, with NFC North teams 0-2 as road dogs.

Packers (3-2) @ Browns (1-5)-- Flu is sweeping thru Browns; even trainer is ill, with temp near 103 on Wednesday. Cleveland covered its last three games but scored 14 or less points in four of last five-- they've yet to hold club under 140 rushing yards. Green Bay converted 13 of last 25 on third down. Packers have Minnesota coming to Lambeau next week for rematch, could be looking ahead to that. AFC North teams are 6-8 vs spread outside their division, 4-3 as dogs, 1-0 as home dogs. NFC North road favorites are 4-0 against the spread in their non-division games. Three of last four Packer games went over the total.

Vikings (6-0) @ Steelers (4-2)-- Minnesota averages 31.5 ppg; no one has held them under 27 points- Vikes scored 20 TDs on 65 drives, trying only 13 FGs. Still, Viking defense allowed three TDs in 4:58 of 4th quarter vs Ravens week ago, and would have lost if Baltimore made last-second FG. Steelers won last three games, scoring 38-28-27 points- they've scored 12 TDs on their last 29 drives. Last four Pittsburgh games went over total, thanks to Pitt allowing TD on defense/special teams in each of the four games- five of six Minnesota tilts also went over. Steelers are -5 in turnovers, have yet to be plus in an '09 game.

Patriots (4-2) vs Buccaneers (0-6) (@ London)-- Bucs are winless and just 1-5 vs spread, losing away games by 13-3-19 points. Second time in three years NFL sends winless team overseas; Bucs had kick return for TD, defensive TD at home last week, still lost to Carolina. Patriots won three of last four games; they led Titans 45-0 at half last week. We've said before that only way faves lose game like this is to turn ball over; Patriots have two giveaways in last four games (+8 TO ratio). Neutral site and distractions that go with it probably are help to underdog-- hapless '07 Dolphins lost 13-10 here to Giants, who went on to win Super Bowl that season.

49ers (3-2) @ Texans (3-3)-- San Fran is 3-0 vs NFC West rivals, 0-2 against everyone else, losing 27-24 at Minnesota on last-second pass. Houston scored 21+ points in each of its last five games, but hasn't won back/back games yet; they held last three opponents to 45-44-46 rushing yards, but they're 0-3 this year when they score less than 28 points. AFC South home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC West road dogs are 4-1. 49ers covered four of five games but got waxed 45-10 at home by Falcons in last game before their bye; they're 1-1 on road-- two games were decided by total of 7 points.

Bills (2-4) @ Panthers (2-3)-- Carolina has six TDs on 21 drives in winning its last two games, after scoring four TDs on 33 drives in losing first three- they get back to .500 with win here vs Buffalo team starting backup QB. Buffalo is first NFL team since 1944 to win game when they allowed 318+ yards in that game- they scored total of 36 points in last four games, with only four TDs on 49 drives. AFC East underdogs are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games-- NFC South favorites are 7-1, 5-1 at home. Carolina ran ball for 267 yards last week and got road win despite lousy day for Delhomme (9-17/55 with a pick-6).

Saints (5-0) @ Dolphins (2-3)-- Miami had first shot at signing Brees when he left Chargers but previous regime passed; good thing for unbeaten Saints, who have 18 TDs on 58 drives this year in winning games by 18-26-20-14-21 pts. NO averages 38.4 ppg, 37.5 on road. Dolphins scored 38-31 points in pair of wins before their bye, running ball for 250-151 yards; they'll test Saint defense that held four of five foes under 90 rushing yards (fifth team, Jets, ran for 132 yards). Miami's wins were vs Bills-Jets, division rivals; question is can they stop high powered, well balanced Saints who have yet to run for less than 133 yards. New Orleans defense has 15 takeaways in five games (+9).

Jets (3-3) @ Raiders (2-4)-- Not sure what to make of Jets' squad that lost its last three games after 3-0 start; loss of Jenkins cripples run defense that had given up average of 143 yards/game last four weeks anyway. Sanchez passed for less than 4.5 yards/attempt in three of last four games, but weather figures to be better in NoCal than it was in Jersey last week. Raiders scored 13 points or less in each of last five games, but won two of them, holding Chiefs/Eagles to 10-9 points. Jets ran ball for 318 yards but lost last week, first team to do that since 1944. AFC West home teams are 6-2 in non-divisional home tilts.

Falcons (4-1) @ Cowboys (3-2)-- In their four wins, Atlanta converted 47.2% of 3rd downs (25-53); in their one loss, they were 2-9- they scored nine TDs on 23 drives in last two games, and Ryan hasn't been sacked in last four games. NFC South underdogs are 2-7 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-4 on road. NFC east home favorites are 4-3. Dallas was shaky before bye, needing OT to escape KC with a win. Cowboys averaged 12.3/6.8/9.9 ypp in their wins, 4.4/ 5.1 in losses. Falcons held four of five opponents under 7.0 ypp. Dallas is 1-3 vs spread in last four games. Falcons split two games as underdog. NFC South road dogs are 2-4 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 4-3.

Cardinals (3-2) @ Giants (5-1)-- Arizona scored 31-27 points in winning both its road games, averaging 8.3/6.3 ypp; in their three wins, Cards led at half by scores of 24-3/21-0/17-3. In losses, they trailed 13-6/21-3. Not sure what to make of Giant defense that allowed 11.6 ypa last week in Superdome. Giants haven't picked off pass in their last three games. Only good teams Giants have played (Dallas/NO) scored 31-48 points against them. NFC West road dogs are 4-1 vs spread. NFC East home favorites are 4-3. Five of six Giant games went over the total; four of five Arizona games stayed under. Giants beat the Cardinals 37-29 in deserrt LY; Redbirds ran ball just 15 times for 23 yards.

Monday, October 26

Eagles (3-2) @ Redskins (2-4)-- Visitor is 6-4 in series, with Eagles 3-2 in last five visits here, winning by 3-2-8 points. Underdogs covered five of last six in series, four of five in this site. Redskins in freefall, with change in playcallers and Coach Zorn on chopping block; they average 13.2 ppg and this is just the second decent team (Giants) they've played. Eagles lost in Oakland last week, a terrible loss, first game they played that was decided by less than 19 points. In two games since their bye, Philly is just 6-26 on third down. Redskins are averaging 10.3 ppg at home. Four of five Eagles games went over the total.

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 7
By SHAWN HARTLEN

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3)

Why 49ers cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They’ll get RB Frank Gore back from injury and rookie first-round pick Michael Crabtree will make his debut. Stifling run defense should have no problem shutting down a Houston club averaging only 77.3 yards on the ground per game.

Why Texans cover: They’re 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games. Houston QB Matt Schaub is on fire averaging over 325 yards passing with 14 TDs in his last five games. Meanwhile SF QB Shaun Hill has been sacked seven times in his last two games.

Total (44.5): Under is 4-1 in 49ers' last five road games and 9-3 in Texans' last 12 games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5)

Why Chargers cover: They’ve won four of the past five meetings. Chiefs are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 home games. Philip Rivers torched the Chiefs last season, throwing for 662 yards and four TDs in two meetings.

Why Chiefs cover: They’re coming off their first win of the season and have been getting better each week. Underdog is 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings. Chargers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings and 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Kansas City. San Diego's run game ranks last in the league.

Total (44): Over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs' last six home games and 5-1 in Chargers' last six games overall.

Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams (+13)

Why Colts cover: They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four games and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight road games. Peyton Manning spreads the ball around making it hard to key on one player. Rams already poor passing game could be without top receiver Donnie Avery who has a hip injury.

Why Rams cover: RB Steven Jackson gained 127 yards and a TD in their last meeting and could roll up yardage against an Indy team allowing over four yards per carry. Under is 5-2 in Colts' last seven games and 5-2 in their last seven road games.

Total (45.5): The over is 4-1 in the Colts last five games against a team under .500.

New England Patriots at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+14.5)

Why Patriots cover: They’re 36-17-1 ATS in their last 54 road games. They’ve won four of six meetings. Buccaneers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games. Pats are coming off a 59-point effort and face a team allowing 28 points per game.

Why Buccaneers cover: New England hasn't faced a QB this season with Josh Johnson's scrambling ability. With both Sammy Morris and Fred Taylor out, the Patriots will be missing two key parts of their running attack.

Total (45): Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers' last five home games and 9-4 in Patriots' last 13 games overall.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)

Why Vikings cover: They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four road games. Steelers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games. Pittsburgh has trouble protecting the ball and is prone to turnovers. Minny held Ben Roethlisberger to 149 yards passing in the last meeting.

Why Steelers cover: They’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games. Second ranked passing attack is departure from smash-mouth teams of recent years and lets Pittsburgh put up points faster. Vikings are likely to be without star cornerback Antoine Winfield who has a foot injury.

Total (44.5): Over is 4-0 in each of the Vikings' and Steelers' last four games.

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+7)

Why Packers cover: Are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 road games. Browns are 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games. Aaron Rodgers could dismantle the league's 23rd-ranked pass defense. Derek Anderson is averaging only 138 yards passing in three starts since replacing Brady Quinn at QB. He has also turned the ball over five times in those games.

Why Browns cover: Green Bay's offensive line has allowed a league high 25 sacks. Packers are banged up at running back. RB Jamal Lewis ran for 105 yards and a score in his last game against Green Bay.

Total (44.5): Over is 21-8-1 in Packers' last 30 games.

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-7)

Why Bills cover: They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six road games. They’ve won three of four meetings. Panthers are 1-5 ATS in their last six games. Carolina receiver Steve Smith was pouting after last week's win telling The Charlotte Observer, "I'm no longer an asset to this team."

Why Panthers cover: They’re 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. Ryan Fitzpatrick (career 66.1 rating) will start for injured Trent Edwards at quarterback for Buffalo. DE Julius Peppers has been dominant the last few weeks and faces a shaky Bills offensive line. Buffalo has had trouble getting stud receivers Terrell Owens and Lee Evans involved.

Total (37.5): Over is 5-1 in Bills' last six road games and 9-4 in Panthers' last 13 games overall.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+6)

Why Jets cover: The combo of Leon Washington and Thomas Jones could carve up the Raiders' 28th-ranked rush defense. Oakland's best player, cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, is coping with an eye injury that has blurred his vision. Jets defense will attack an Oakland offensive line that has been decimated by injuries.

Why Raiders cover: Home team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland. Jets receivers Braylon Edwards (quad) and Jerricho Cotchery (hamstring) are dealing with leg injuries that could affect their explosiveness. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has thrown eight interceptions in his last three games. Jets will be without four-time Pro Bowl NT Kris Jenkins.

Total (35): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4)

Why Falcons cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games. Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games. Sack specialist John Abraham could torment a banged up Dallas offensive line. WR Roddy White lit up the Cowboys for 105 receiving yards through the air in their last meeting.

Why Cowboys cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven home games. They’ve won four of past six meetings. They’ve moved speedster Miles Austin into the starting lineup to better complement Roy Williams. Atlanta lost starting corner Brian Williams to a season-ending knee injury last week.

Total (47): Under is 38-16-1 in Falcons' last 55 road games.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (+6)

Why Saints cover: They’re 5-0-1 ATS in their last six road games and 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games overall. Underrated running game keeping defenses honest and allows for Drew Brees to complete a high percentage of his passes for big plays downfield.

Why Dolphins cover: They’ve won three of last five meetings. They’re averaging 177 yards per game on the ground largely due to the success of the Wildcat offense. That could help keep Saints offense watching from the sidelines.

Total (47): Over is 18-7-1 in Saints' last 26 games.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)

Why Bears cover: Defense will be ramped up to stop WR Chad Ochocinco who has been taunting them on Twitter this week. Cincy will be without top pass rusher Antwan Odom who was lost for the season with a torn Achilles' tendon. Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games as a favorite.

Why Bengals cover: They’ve won last four meetings. Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Chicago's run game has sputtered all season and Matt Forte has had trouble protecting the ball. Rejuvenated running back Cedric Benson will be looking for revenge against the team that gave up on him.

Total (42): Under is 4-1 in Bengals' last five home games and 9-3 in Bears' last 12 road games.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-7)

Why Cardinals cover: They’re 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall. Frustrated tailback Brandon Jacobs will have a hard time against the league's top-rated run defense.

Why Giants cover: They’ve won six of last eight meetings. They’re 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games. Cards could be without Pro Bowl wideout Anquan Boldin because of an ankle injury. Arizona's inability to run the ball will let Giants defense tee off on immobile Kurt Warner. Eli Manning has thrown five touchdowns in his last two games against Arizona.

Total (46): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+7)

Why Eagles cover: Redskins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine home games. Washington will hand offensive play calling duties to Sherm Lewis who has only been with the team for two weeks. QB Jason Campbell starts this week despite being pulled last week for the equally ineffective Todd Collins.

Why Redskins cover: Eagles are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Washington and 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine meetings overall. Third-ranked pass defense could hamper Donovan McNabb who is coming off a disappointing loss to the Raiders. Road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings

Total (37.5): Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings and 5-1-2 in the last eight meetings in Washington.

Upset Alert in South Beach?
By The Prez

The New Orleans Saints looked like the NFL’s best team last weekend in a 48-27 win over the then-unbeaten New York Giants. But the Saints are a different team indoors, and that’s why they will lose this week in their first regular-season game in South Florida in 29 years.

Miami is currently a six-point dog.

I am well aware the Saints have scored on every opening drive this season and won every game by 14 points or more and have yet to trail. Also know that the Saints matched their season-high total of points Sunday against the same Giants defense that entered the game rated No. 1 overall in the NFL and No. 1 against the pass. I also know that New Orleans is plus-9 in turnover margin and has 15 takeaways to lead the league.

But suddenly the 2009 Dolphins look very much like the 2008 version only better because new starting QB Chad Henne gives Miami an actual downfield passing threat that Chad Pennington never could.

And the Fins are a very good home team. Their one loss was a game in which they dominated the Colts but Peyton Manning worked his late magic. The past two weeks, a 38-10 win over Buffalo and a 31-27 victory over the Jets, the offensive line has been dominating. Against the Bills, Miami ran for 250 yards and didn’t turn the ball over (a staple of the 2008 team). Against the Jets, Miami rushed for 150 (the Wildcat formation netted Miami 110) and Henne had his best game so far. And, again, no turnovers for the Dolphins.

A strong run game puts Miami in short third downs, which is vital for a young QB like Henne. So far, the Dolphins have the league's highest third-down conversion percentage when there are 2 or fewer yards to go for a first down, converting on 17 of 20. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will help keep Drew Brees off the field.

On defense, Miami has been very good against the run so far. To beat the Saints you have to shut down the running game and make this team one-dimensional with Brees passing every down. The Saints are fourth in the NFL in rushing, averaging 159.6 yards per game.

Getting a pass rush will be vital for the Fins, especially because Miami’s secondary has surrendered 11 passing plays of 25 yards or more in five games. An inconsistent pass rush has contributed to an AFC-high 8.4 yards an attempt and 14.1 yards a completion vs. Miami. But star pass rusher Joey Porter practiced on Wednesday fully for the first time in a month and is ready to go.

Many of the Fins got healthy because they had last week off to prepare for this high-powered Saint offense. The Fins are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six following a bye, for what that’s worth. Last year they beat a good San Diego team following the bye.

Here’s one rare stat that favors Miami: The Saints are third-from-last in the NFL in kickoff return yards allowed, so perhaps the Fins’ Ted Ginn Jr. takes one back.

Most of the numbers – the Saints are 9-0 ATS in their past nine as a favorite of 3.5-10 – point toward New Orleans. But call this one a gut feeling and the fact that Miami is rested and really needs this more. Fins win by a field goal.

San Diego (2-3, 1-4 ATS) at Kansas City (1-5, 2-4 ATS)

The Chiefs, fresh off their first victory under new coach Todd Haley, play host to the struggling Chargers at Arrowhead Stadium.

San Diego scored just three second-half points Monday night in a 34-23 home loss to Denver as a 3½-point favorite. The Chargers’ offense is a middling 14th in the league in total yards (341.6 ypg), though QB Philip Rivers and the passing game rate fifth at 284 ypg. The rushing game behind slumping LaDainian Tomlinson continues to struggle, with San Diego tied for last with Arizona at just 57.6 rushing ypg., and the Chargers are allowing 27.2 ppg (28th).

Kansas City dropped Washington 14-6 as a 6½-point road underdog Sunday to finally crack the win column after losing nine in a row (3-6 ATS) dating to last season. However, the Chiefs are still 30th in the league in total offense at just 259.7 yards per game, and they’re getting outscored by an average of just over a TD per game, at 24-16.3.

Kansas City is 5-2 ATS (3-4 SU) in the last seven meetings with San Diego, losing both of last year’s contests in this AFC West rivalry, but cashing in both games that went down to the final minute, including a 22-21 home loss as a six-point pup in December. The underdog is 11-4-1 ATS in the last 16 clashes, and K.C. is 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs are 5-1 ATS in their last six AFC West contests and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following a spread-cover, but they remain on ATS slides of 2-6 overall, 4-12 at home and 2-5 as a ‘dog. Despite Monday’s loss to Denver, the Chargers are a solid 21-9-4 ATS in their last 34 AFC West outings and 6-3 ATS in their last nine as a division road chalk, but they are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall (all against the AFC), 1-4 on the road, 3-8 as a favorite and 0-4 as a road chalk.

Kansas City is on “over” runs of 4-1-1 at home and 15-5-1 as a home pup, and the over for San Diego is on runs of 5-1 overall (4-1 this year), 4-0-1 in division play, 19-6-2 on the highway and 5-1-1 with the Chargers favored on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Indianapolis (5-0, 4-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-6, 2-4 ATS)

The Colts take their unbeaten record to the Edward Jones Dome for a non-conference contest with the Rams, who are still seeking their first win under new coach Steve Spagnuolo.

Indianapolis is coming off its bye week after rolling Tennessee 31-9 as a three-point road chalk two Sundays ago, winning its 14th consecutive regular-season game (9-4-1 ATS). QB Peyton Manning has cracked the 300-yard barrier in passing yards in all five games this year, and he’s averaging 329 ypg with 12 TD passes against just four INTs for the league’s third-best offense in total yards (404.8 ypg).

St. Louis nearly notched its first win of the year, taking Jacksonville to overtime before losing 23-20 as a healthy 9½-point ‘dog, the team’s 16th consecutive defeat (6-10 ATS). The Rams set a season-high for points scored in the defeat, marking just the second time they’ve put up more than 10 points this year. St. Louis continues to be the league’s lowest-scoring squad at a dismal 9.0 ppg.

These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with each going 1-1 SU and ATS and the home team winning and covering each time. Most recently, Indy rolled 45-28 as a 13½-point favorite in October 2005.

The Colts are 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on ATS rolls of 4-0 overall, 4-0 against losing teams, 6-1-1 on the road, 9-2 in October, 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 after a spread cover and 12-4 on the road versus NFC foes. The Rams, meanwhile, have nothing but negative ATS trends, including 8-17 overall, 3-9 at the dome, 3-12 as a home pup, 3-10 catching more than 10 points and 5-15 against winning teams.

The under for Indianapolis is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against losing teams and 5-2 on the road, while the over for St. Louis is on stretches of 18-5 at home versus teams with a winning road record, 11-5-1 with the Rams as a home ‘dog and 15-7 in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS

Green Bay (3-2 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (1-5, 3-3 ATS)

The Packers hit the road for the third time in four games when they head to Ohio to take on the struggling Browns.

Green Bay came off a bye and blanked Detroit 26-0 as an overwhelming 14-point home favorite Sunday, bouncing back from its 30-23 road loss to Minnesota. QB Aaron Rodgers, who threw for 358 yards and a pair of TDs against the Lions, leads an offense that is putting up 26 ppg (eighth), and with the shutout last week, the Pack’s defense is tied for ninth, allowing 18.6 ppg.

Cleveland failed to string together consecutive wins last week, losing to defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 27-14, though it narrowly covered as a 14-point underdog. The Browns continue to have difficulty scoring, netting just 11.5 ppg (30th). Also, QB Derek Anderson has been brutal the past two weeks, following his 2-for-17 effort and 23 passing yards at Buffalo with a 9-for-24 showing and just 122 passing yards against the Steelers. He has eight turnovers (six INTs, two lost fumbles) against just two TDs.

The squads have split two meaningful meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with Cleveland earning a 26-24 road upset as a six-point underdog in September 2005.

The Packers have followed their last four spread-covers with ATS losses, but they are otherwise on pointspread upswings of 15-6-1 on the highway, 8-3 as a road chalk and 6-0-1 as a non-division road favorite. The Browns, who have cashed the past three weeks, are on spread-covering runs of 8-0 in October and 7-1-1 catching 3½ to 10 points, though they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 3-8-1 overall, 1-5-1 at home, 2-7-1 after a SU loss, 2-5-1 against winning teams and 3-6 as a non-division home ‘dog.

The over for Green Bay is on tears of 21-8-1 overall, 18-7-2 in roadies, 44-20-2 against losing teams, 15-5 laying points and 19-7-1 with the Pack favored on the highway. The over is 7-3-1 in Cleveland’s last 11 as a home pup of 3½ to 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER

Minnesota (6-0, 4-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (4-2, 1-5 ATS)

The Vikings, one of only two 6-0 teams in the league, step outside the NFC to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers at Heinz Field.

Minnesota blew a 17-3 third-quarter lead to Baltimore last week, giving up three fourth-quarter TDs, before escaping with a 33-31 victory in failing to cover as a three-point home chalk. The Vikings, with 40-year-old QB Brett Favre and star RB Adrian Peterson leading the way, have scored 27 points or more every week, averaging 31.5 ppg, which trails only the Saints. Also, the defense, though allowing 20.2 ppg (18th), has helped the Vikes post a plus-8 turnover margin, tied for the NFL’s second-best mark.

Pittsburgh rolled past Cleveland 27-14 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a lofty 14-point home favorite and is now 1-6 ATS dating to its Super Bowl victory over Arizona. The Steelers are averaging 403.7 ypg (fifth), including the second-best passing attack at 296.7 ypg, but that’s only converting into 23.3 ppg (14th), partially due to a minus-four turnover margin. Pittsburgh is allowing 18.7 ppg (11th).

Pittsburgh has won both its meetings this decade with Minnesota, going 1-1 ATS as it cashed in an 18-3 road as a 4½-point favorite in December 2005.

The Vikings have covered in their last four road outings, but they are on ATS skids of 1-5 against winning teams, 5-12 after a SU win and 2-6-1 in non-conference roadies.

The Steelers’ current 1-6 ATS dive has all come from the favorite’s role, and they are on an 0-5 ATS purge following a SU win, but they maintain positive pointspread streaks of 7-2 against winning teams, 6-2 at home, 20-7 as a home favorite of 3½ to 10 points and 25-11-1 in October. Pittsburgh also has cashed in eight of its last 11 non-conference home games.

Minnesota is on “over” tears of 4-0 overall, 4-0 in October, 8-3-1 on the road and 7-1 as a road pup, and the over for Pittsburgh is on surges of 4-0 overall, 41-17-2 at home, 5-0 against winning teams and 5-1 in October.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER

New England (4-2, 3-3 ATS) vs. Tampa Bay (0-6, 1-5 ATS)
(at London)

The Patriots, coming off the most lopsided NFL win in more than three decades, head to Wembley Stadium to take on the winless Buccaneers in the league’s annual game in London.

New England pinned a 59-0 beatdown on Tennessee last week laying 9½ points at home, the biggest NFL blowout since the Rams’ 59-0 win over the Falcons in 1976. The Patriots scored 35 second-quarter points – all on passes from Tom Brady, who finished with six TD throws, tying his own franchise record. The Pats are putting up 404.7 ypg (fourth) and 27.2 ppg (seventh), and Brady is leading a passing attack that nets 288.3 ypg (fourth).

Tampa Bay fell to Carolina 28-21 Sunday as a three-point home pup, dropping its 10th consecutive game SU (2-8 ATS). The woeful Bucs are averaging 14.8 ppg (27th) and 277.7 ypg (28th), while allowing 28 ppg (29th) and 370.2 ypg (27th). Second-year QB Josh Johnson has started the past three games and has been sacked 10 times in that stretch and thrown five INTs (against three TDs). He’s also fumbled a whopping seven times in the last two games (five against Carolina), though only one was recovered by the defense.

These squads haven’t met since December 2005, when New England rolled 28-0 as a six-point home favorite.

The Patriots are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 giving more than 10 points, and they are on further ATS skids of 4-10 after a spread-cover and 6-14 after a SU win. However, they are on pointspread rolls of 36-17-1 on the highway, 17-7 as a road favorite, 21-7-1 in October and 13-7-1 against the NFC. The Buccaneers, an underdog in every game so far this year, are on pointspread freefalls of 1-7 overall, 5-11 catching points, 1-4 against winning teams and 1-6 against the AFC.

The over for New England is on sprees of 9-4 overall, 5-0 with the Pats laying 10½ or more and 7-3-1 in October, and the over is 6-2 in Tampa Bay’s last eight overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND and OVER

San Francisco (3-2, 4-1 ATS) at Houston (3-3 SU and ATS)

The 49ers hope a bye week will help them recover from a blowout loss when they head to Reliant Stadium to take on the Texans.

San Francisco had last week off after getting belted by Atlanta 45-10 as a one-point home favorite two weeks ago, the 49ers’ first ATS setback of the season. The 49ers are putting up just 267 total ypg (29th), though they’re tied for 15th in scoring (22.4 ppg), and Mike Singletary’s defense – despite the ugly outing versus the Falcons – is allowing just 19.6 ppg (tied for 12th).

San Francisco RB Frank Gore, who missed the last 2½ games with injury, is expected to return today, while first-round draft pick Michael Crabtree, who ended his holdout two weeks ago, is likely to start at wide receiver.

Houston upset Cincinnati 28-17 Sunday as a four-point road underdog, continuing its season-long trend of alternating SU and ATS wins and losses. QB Matt Schaub, who went off for 392 passing yards and four TDs against the Bengals, has thrown for 763 yards and seven TDs in his past two starts, with just two INTs on 90 attempts. For the year, Schaub has a league-best 14 TDs and five picks.

These teams have met only once before, with San Francisco notching a 20-17 overtime win as a one-point home favorite to cap the 2005 regular season.

The 49ers are on ATS dips of 0-6 as an underdog of three points or less, 1-7 in October and 7-17 in non-division road games, but they also carry several positive ATS streaks, including 4-1-1 overall, 5-0 as a pup, 4-0 as a road ‘dog and 9-1-1 after a SU loss of more than 14 points. The inconsistent Texans are 0-4 ATS both after their last four SU wins and their last four spread-covers, and they are on a 3-9 ATS decline in October, but they’ve cashed in four straight against winning teams and are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 overall.

San Francisco is on “under” runs of 7-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 on the highway, though the total has gone high in 10 of their last 13 October contests. The under for Houston is on stretches of 9-3 overall, 4-0 in October, 7-1 after a spread-cover and 6-1 after a SU win, but the over is 20-7 in the Texans’ last 27 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

N.Y. Jets (3-3 SU and ATS) at Oakland (2-4, 3-3 ATS)

The Jets, who started out 3-0 SU and ATS but haven’t won or covered since, hope to end their slide with the cross-country trek to the Oakland Coliseum to face the Raiders.

New York is coming off a stunning 16-13 overtime home loss to Buffalo as a 9½-point favorite, a setback that came on the heels of consecutive SU and ATS road losses to New Orleans and Miami. During the Jets’ three-game slump, rookie QB Mark Sanchez has just one TD pass against an eye-popping eight INTs, including five in the loss to Buffalo. He now has a dozen turnovers (10 INTs, 2 lost fumbles) against just five TDs for the year.

The dismal Raiders snapped a three-game SU and ATS skid with a shocking 13-9 upset of Philadelphia as a 14-point home ‘dog last Sunday. QB JaMarcus (17 of 28, 224 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) was a bit more serviceable than he had been through the first five games of the year, but he’s still leading an offense that is last in the league in total yards (213.8 ypg) and 31st in scoring (10.3 ppg).

These two squads met last October, also in Oakland, with the Raiders netting a 16-13 overtime win as a three-point pup to end a 3-0 SU run (2-0-1 ATS) by New York in this rivalry. The home team is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and Oakland is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five contests at the Coliseum.

The Jets are on a bevy of ATS purges, including 3-8 overall, 0-6 after a SU loss, 0-6 after a non-cover, 1-7 as a favorite, 0-4 as a road chalk, 1-5 against losing teams and 5-16-1 in October. Likewise, the Raiders are mired in pointspread funks of 15-35-1 at home, 9-20 as a home pup and 9-20 in October.

The under is on streaks for New York of 6-2 overall, 4-1 on the highway and 5-1 as a road favorite, and the under for Oakland is on surges of 4-1 overall, 7-2 at home, 10-2 in October and 4-1 with the Raiders getting points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Buffalo (2-4, 3-3 ATS) at Carolina (2-3, 1-4 ATS)

The Panthers aim to push their modest winning streak to three games when they play host to the Bills at Bank of American Stadium.

Carolina dropped Tampa Bay 28-21 Sunday as a three-point road chalk to beat the spread for the first time this season and halt a five-game ATS slide overall. After opening the season with losses to three playoff teams from last year, the Panthers have gotten a break with games against Washington and Tampa. QB Jake Delhomme was still dicey in both wins, totaling two TD passes against three INTs and just 246 total passing yards. He now has 12 turnovers (10 INTs, 2 lost fumbles) and four TDs for the season.

Buffalo, coming off an ugly 6-3 upset home loss to Cleveland, bounced back with a 16-13 overtime victory over the Jets as a hefty 9½-point road pup, despite losing QB Trent Edwards to a concussion in the second quarter. The Bills picked off six passes, including five from New York rookie QB Mark Sanchez, yet they’re still minus-2 for the season in turnover margin. Buffalo is averaging just 15.5 ppg (26th) and 291.2 ypg (25th), while allowing 21.5 ppg (20th) and 352.5 ypg (21st). Also, Buffalo surrendered a whopping 318 rushing yards to the Jets a week ago.

Ryan Fitzpatrick will start for the Bills this week as Edwards has been declared out. Last week in New York, Fitzpatrick was 10 of 25 for 116 yards with one TD and one INT.

Carolina has cashed in both meetings this decade with Buffalo, going 1-1 SU, including a 13-9 victory as a 3½-point road favorite in the most recent clash in November 2005.

The Panthers are on ATS skids of 1-5 overall, 2-5 at home and 8-16 as a non-division home favorite, but they are 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 as a favorite and 4-1 ATS in their last five against losing teams. The Bills have now covered in five of their last six roadies and are on a 25-9-1 ATS roll against losing teams, but they are on pointspread slides of 0-5 after a SU win and 2-6 following a spread-cover.

Carolina has topped the total in nine of its last 13 overall, but it is also on “under” streaks of 13-5 at home, 17-7 as a home favorite and 7-2 in October. The over has been the play in five of Buffalo’s last six road games, but the under for the Bills is on stretches of 4-0 after a SU win, 4-1 in October and 22-8 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CAROLINA

Chicago (3-2 SU and ATS) at Cincinnati (4-2, 3-3 ATS)

Two teams looking to bounce back from Week 6 losses get together when the Bears head to Paul Brown Stadium for a non-conference game against the Bengals.

Chicago fell short to Atlanta 21-14 Sunday night as a four-point road ‘dog, ending a three-game SU and ATS winning streak after its season-opening loss to Green Bay. Despite the addition of QB Jay Cutler, the Bears are middle-of-the-pack offensively so far, averaging 318.8 ypg (19th) and 23.8 ppg (13th). The defense has also been slightly above-average, yielding 306.2 ypg (13th) and 19.8 ppg (tie 15th).

After its surprising start to the season, Cincinnati was dealt a 28-17 home upset by Houston as a four-point chalk, ending a four-game SU surge (3-1 ATS) that followed the Bengals’ stunning Week 1 loss to Denver. Cincinnati’s above-average record isn’t really mirrored by its stats so far, as it is averaging 19.7 ppg (tie 20th) while also allowing 19.7 ppg (14th), and the Bengals are also giving up 351.7 ypg (19th).

Cincinnati and Chicago have split two meetings this decade both SU and ATS, with the road team winning and covering both times. Most recently, Cincinnati rolled 24-7 giving three points in September 2005.

The Bears are on ATS dips of 1-4 on the road, 1-6 as an underdog, 0-5-1 as a road pup and 2-8-1 as a non-conference ‘dog, but they’ve gone 11-5 ATS in their last 16 October outings, 5-1 ATS in their last six after a SU loss and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 when coming off a pointspread setback. The Bengals, meanwhile, are on ATS dives of 1-6 as a favorite (all at home), 3-9-2 as a home chalk of three points or less and 16-33-2 in October, though they’ve covered in six of their last nine overall.

Chicago is on “under” tears of 9-3 on the highway, 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after an ATS defeat and 36-17-2 as a road pup, and Cincinnati is on “under” rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-1 at home and 6-0 as a home favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

New Orleans (5-0 SU and ATS) at Miami (2-3 SU and ATS)

The Saints take their high-octane offense to LandShark Stadium for a date with the Dolphins, who come off a bye looking to build on their two-game SU and ATS win streak.

New Orleans blasted the previously undefeated Giants 48-27 last Sunday, easily covering as a 3½-point favorite at the Superdome. QB Drew Brees continues to lead the NFL’s most prolific offense, which is averaging 430 ypg game and a whopping 38.4 ppg, seven points more than any other team in the league. The Saints also sport a top-10 defense, ranking ninth in both scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and total defense (301.2 ypg).

Miami bested the Jets 31-27 two Mondays ago as a three-point home ‘dog, following up on its 38-10 home blowout of Buffalo as a one-point chalk. The Dolphins, with Chad Henne now at QB after Chad Pennington suffered a season-ending injury in Week 3, have put up 69 points over their last two games after scoring just 43 in their first three outings combined. They’ve been bolstered by the league’s best rushing attack (177 ypg), paced by RB Ronnie Brown, who has averaged 100 ypg the last four weeks.

These teams just met Sept. 3 in the preseason, with Miami winning the meaningless affair 10-7 as a three-point road pup. However, they haven’t met in the regular season since October 2005, when Miami rolled 21-6 giving 2½ points on the road, the only regular-season clash this decade.

The Saints are on a plethora of spread-covering streaks, including 15-5-1 overall, 5-0-1 on the road, 4-0 against losing teams, 17-5 as a favorite and 6-1 as a non-division road chalk. The Dolphins are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six following the bye and 6-1 ATS in their last eight October outings, but they are on ATS declines of 15-36-1 at home, 1-4 as a ‘dog and 2-5 as a home pup, and they’ve failed to cash in their last six starts against NFC opponents.

The over is on tears for New Orleans of 18-7-1 overall, 15-6-1 with the Saints favored, 13-5 as a road chalk and 7-3 against losing teams. On the flip side, the under for Miami is on rolls of 11-5 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 5-2 coming off the bye and 5-2 as a pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS

Atlanta (4-1 SU and ATS) at Dallas (3-2, 2-3 ATS)

Second-year QB Matt Ryan leads the Falcons into new Dallas Cowboys Stadium for a clash with Tony Romo and the Cowboys.

Atlanta topped Chicago 21-14 last Sunday night as a four-point home favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week. The Falcons, who have allowed 20 points or less in all four of their wins this year, are yielding an average of 15.4 ppg, fourth-best in the league, despite giving up 359.2 ypg (24th). Much of Atlanta’s defensive success is due to a plus-5 turnover margin (seventh). Meanwhile, Atlanta is 10th in the league in scoring at 24.6 ppg.

Dallas took last week off after escaping Kansas City with a 26-20 overtime victory, failing to cover as a seven-point road chalk. The Cowboys, who have alternated SU wins and losses this year, sport the NFL’s second-most-productive offense at 420.4 ypg, and they’re scoring just a tick less than Atlanta at 24.4 ppg. Dallas’ assortment of running backs (Marion Barber, Felix Jones and Tashard Choice) has the squad averaging 161 rushing ypg, third-best in the league.

Dallas beat Atlanta 38-28 in December 2006 as a 3½-point road favorite, ending a modest 2-0 SU and ATS run by the Falcons in this rivalry to account for the only three meetings between these teams over the past eight years.

The Falcons are on ATS upswings of 5-1 in October, 11-5 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points and 7-3 as a non-division road ‘dog. The Cowboys are on pointspread runs of 4-1 following the bye, 6-2 against the NFC, 5-2 at home and 8-2 as a non-division home chalk, but they’ve failed to cash in their last four games against winning teams and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 1-5 in October and 1-4 after a SU win.

Atlanta carries “under” streaks of 38-16-1 on the highway, 35-16-2 after a SU win, 4-0 catching 3½ to 10 points and 6-2 in October, and the under is 12-2-2 in Dallas’ last 16 starts following a bye. However, the over for the Cowboys is on runs of 5-2 overall, 11-4 in October and 7-1 with as a favorite of 3½ to 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA

Arizona (3-2 SU and ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-1, 4-2 ATS)

The past two NFC champions collide at the Meadowlands when the Cardinals make the long trip to the East Coast to take on the Giants in a prime-time showdown.

New York was dealt its first loss of the year in blowout fashion last week, falling to New Orleans 48-27 as a 3½-point underdog. Eli Manning had his worst outing of the season (14 of 31, 178 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, 1 lost fumble), but New York’s defense was the bigger issue, getting pushed around after allowing 17 points or less in four of its first five games. The Giants are averaging 402 ypg (sixth), including 147.7 on the ground (fifth), while scoring 29.7 ppg (third) and allowing 19.8 ppg (17th).

Arizona ripped Seattle 27-3 as a three-point road underdog last week for its second straight win and cover. The Cardinals haven’t run the ball well at all, as they are tied for last in the league with the Chargers at a paltry 57.6 rushing ypg, but Kurt Warner has the passing game clicking off 280.2 ypg, which is No. 1 in the NFC and fifth overall. Arizona’s defense yields 324.8 ypg (17th) but just 18.4 ppg (eighth).

New York has won and covered the last two clashes in this rivalry, including a 37-29 road victory last November as a three-point favorite. Prior to that, Arizona had won and covered three straight meetings.

Despite last week’s meltdown in New Orleans, the Giants are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 33-17-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home, 7-1-1 after a non-cover, 7-2-1 after a SU loss, 17-5 against winning teams, 18-7 as a favorite and 7-2 as a non-division home chalk. The Cardinals are also on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 8-2 overall, 6-2 on the highway, 6-0 in October, 5-0 as a ‘dog and 5-1 against the NFC. However, Arizona is in a 11-23 ATS freefall as a non-division road pup.

The over for New York is on stretches of 4-1-1 overall and 11-5-1 at the Meadowlands, and the over for Arizona is on surges of 39-17 on the road, 16-5 in October, 40-14 with the Cards as a ‘dog and 20-8 against winning teams. However, the under has hit in four of Arizona’s first five games this year, including the last three in row.

Finally, last year’s meeting between these teams sailed over the posted price of 48, but the total has still stayed low in six of the last eight clashes overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER

Gametimepicks.com

Arch-City Blowout!
By SportsPic

Talk about two squads going in opposite direction. At one end you have Colts 5-0 (4-1 ATS) opening the campaign and winners of fourteen consecutive regular season games (9-4-1 ATS). At the other end, the Rams are 0-6 out the gate (2-4 ATS) and losers of 33 of their last 38 on the field (13-25 ATS). As close as a mismatch as could be. But, do we lay the expected two touchdowns knowing what happened to Eagles last week and that laying Double Digits on a road squad has not been profitable the past ten years (20-23-1 ATS) ? You bet we do. Can't see Rams sporting the leagues worst offense (9.0 PPG) along with a 27th ranked pass defense (252.0 PYG) keeping this one close enough to cover. Manning as sharp as he's ever been and the likes of Reggie Wayne (459 yds, 4 TD), Dallas Clark (441 yds, 2 TD), Pierre Garcon (216 yds 2 TD), Austin Collie (228 yds, 3 TD) consistently getting open Peyton shreds the Rams 'D'. Consider these trends, Colts are 5-2 ATS as DD road favorites, 3-0 ATS on the highway after a bye week. Let's not forget, Colts don't let up after pounding an opponent (beat Titans 31-9) they're 10-1 ATS off road win by 21+ points. As always best of luck.

Sunday's Key NFL Line Moves
By Randy Scott

San Diego Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (+4.5, 44)

Opening Line: -4, 43.5

Where the early action is: 94 percent - Chargers

Comments: It will be interesting to see if the Chargers can finally be written off as grossly overrated this year. The Chargers are going to have to dig deep to come out with a win in KC and that’s what everyone expects, but they don’t play well in Arrowhead. The Chargers are getting some serious backing this week and that’s bringing the line up, we expect that to continue and may go as high at 6. We give the Chargers moderate odds to win the game outright, but we warn caution laying the 4.5-point spread.

Fact: The Chiefs have a total of nine interceptions in Phillip River’s six career starts versus Kansas City

Indianapolis Colts at St. Louis Rams (+14, 45)

Opening Line: -13, 46

Where the early action is: 91 percent - Colts

Comments: All Colts action, all week long and we don’t expect that to change Sunday. The line opened -13 and was immediately hit by the public. This is rare, because usually the public waits until Sunday to get their bets in. But there is no doubt in anyone’s mind the Rams suck and the Colts don’t. It was a quick and easy decision to move the line up to the key number 14. We expect -14.5 to show up sometime.

Fact: 93-20—Point differential of opponents to Rams in the second half this season. Rams have been outscored 32-7 in the first quarter, 38-3 in the third quarter and 55-17 in the fourth quarter.

Chicago Bears at Cincinnati Bengals (PK, 42.5)

Opening Line: CIN -1 (-120), 43.5

Wise Action: Bears +1

Where the early action is: 65 percent - Bears

Comments: The opening line reflected the Bengals owning a slight home field advantage, but the wise guys don’t see it that way. Betting the Bears +1 brought the line to a pick’em. This is set up to end Bears being the favorite by game time. Usually, when the wise guys bet on a very short underdog - the favorite will change sides.

Fact: The Bears defense has only allowed 4.75 yards per play this season, sixth best in the NFL

Green Bay Packers at Cleveland Browns (+9, 41)

Opening Line: -7, 42.5

Where the early action is: 98 percent – Packers

Comments: This will be another huge decision for the books. No one is backing the Browns in this spot and it’s hard not to agree with that. The Packers are in a perfect spot here to easily walk into Cleveland and walk out unharmed with the win.

Cleveland is in a world of hurt right now. The Browns should be winless this season and the team now has more key injuries than ever. Also this week, to make it even harder on the Browns, the flu bug has hit their locker room. That bit of news shot the line up from -7 to -9

This will be great game for the Packers to hone their skills for the huge rematch versus the Viking in Lambeau Field next week.

There isn’t much here that says Cleveland can cover this spread on their own, perhaps the Packers will help us with that.

Fact: Packer’s defense has been outstanding; stopping 14 consecutive third-down plays for a first down.

Minnesota Vikings at Pittsburgh Steelers (-5.5, 46)

Opening Line: -3.5, 45.5

Wise Action: Steelers -3.5, Over 45.5

Where the early action is: 60 percent - Vikings

Comments: Wise action hit the Steelers early this week moving the opening number two points. This line could go to six considering the Viking’s pass defense ranks 24th in the NFL and the Steelers are rolling on offence averaging 296 yards per game. INJ: Vikings CB- Antoine Winfield is out; which will only help Ben Roethlisberger complete passes.

The Vikings are looking for their seventh consecutive road victory here. Although the Vikings are very lucky to be undefeated, they have outscored their opponents 51-10 in the fourth quarter this season.

This will be an ironman test for the Vikings; teams that face back-to-back defenses of this caliber (Ravens last week) usually come up short.

Fact: Pittsburgh hasn’t allowed a 100-yard rusher in 28 straight games.

New England Patriots vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+15, 44)

Opening Line: -14, 45

Where the early action is: 95 percent - Patriots

Comments: Another automatic fade play against Tampa Bay by the bettors, that's easy considering who they are playing this week. The action is guaranteed to stay this lop-sided. That should bump the number up some more to combat an abundance of teaser action.

The odds Tampa Bay will win this game are astronomical and the point-spread isn’t doing a good job splitting the action. The fear here is Tampa Bay might not score a touchdown against the Patriots.

The Patriots will run the ball against a very poor TB defense and do nothing but eat up time. The total has already moved down a point and could drop even more by game time.

Fact: Since 2005, Tom Brady is 13-0 against the NFC

San Francisco 49ers at Houston Texans (-3 -120, 44)

Opening Line: -3, 44

Where the early action is: 85 percent - Texans

Comments: Last week the bettors won big by backing Houston as a road underdog in Cincinnati and this week they are jumping back on. The line looks stuck on the number 3. Additional juice is the only movement thus far. We expect the pointspread to move off of the 3 by game time. The Texans have been outstanding against the run giving up a total of 135 yards in their last three games. San Francisco will indeed have Frank Gore back but that doesn’t scare anyone, the Texans easily shut down Cincinnati’s league leading rusher Cedric Benson last week. If the 49ers don’t get pressure on Texans QB Matt Schaub they could end up with exactly the same problem they had versus the Falcons two weeks ago in a 45-10 home loss.

San Francisco WR- Michael Crabtree will be making his first NFL start.

Fact: The 49ers rank second in the NFL in yards allowed per rushing attempt with 3.3 yards.

New York Jets at Oakland Raiders (+6, 34.5)

Opening Line: -6, 35

Where the early action is: 80 percent - Jets

Comments: Both teams have something major to prove this week. The Jets are coming off a brutal loss to the lowly Bills where we saw Mark Sanchez throw five interceptions, that’s one less than the Jets single-game record. And the Raiders have to prove their huge upset win against the Eagles last week was no fluke. This is a tough one to get a read, the Jets should get the job done but we warn caution, Sanchez is in a major funk and the Raiders are recharged playing back-to-back home games.

Fact: Oakland currently ranks 27th in rushing defense.

Buffalo Bills at Carolina Panthers (-6.5, 36.5)

Opening Line: -7, 37.5

Wise Action: Under 37.5

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Panthers

Comments: Bills QB Trent Edwards (concussion) is listed as doubtful, so that means Ryan Fitzpatrick gets the call this week. Fitzpatrick got the job done last week coming off the sidelines in the second quarter and leading a come from behind win over the Jets in overtime. He’s had all week to prepare this start, so he should be ready to go. The poor play of Edwards this season and Fitzpatrick’s NFL experience makes this an upgrade at the QB position for Buffalo. This will be a new Buffalo offence we haven’t seen this season, they have the weapons to do some damage. They could take Carolina by surprise.

Carolina will run the ball against this poor run defense team. The Bills own the league’s worst run defense, on average allowing 181 yards on the ground. That’s a big average to shore up against the two headed monster Carolina has in DeAngelo Williams and Jon Stewart.

Under is the wise bet here, and the total is still good to follow at 36.5.

Fact: Williams and Smith each topped 100 yards last week versus Tampa Bay.

New Orleans Saints at Miami Dolphins (-6.5, 47.5)

Opening Line: -7, 46.5

Where the early action is: 97 percent - Saints

Comments: The Saints are 100 percent winners ATS this season and the bettors aren’t about to jump off the Saints money wagon versus Miami. We expect the action to stay one-sided. Miami has won two games in a row and is well rested for this game coming off the bye week. That’s the reason for the line to be moved off of the key number 7. The heavy one-sided action will bump the line back on 7 by game time.

One way Miami can keep the Saints from scoring their average 38 points per game is to kill the clock every time it gets the ball. We expect the Dolphins to run the wildcat often and should keep this game close, but if they lose their grip, don’t expect much to change in regards to the Saints dominating offense scoring a ton of points again this week.

Fact: Miami leads the regular-season series history 6-3

Atlanta Falcons at Dallas Cowboys (-4, 47.5)

Opening Line: -3, 47

Wise Action: Cowboys -3

Where the early action is: 69 percent - Cowboys

Comments: The big bettors are jumping on the Cowboys this week. That will help balance the action because the public likes Atlanta a bit more than the Cowboys this season. This is a must win game for Dallas, a poor showing here could mean some big changes coming from up top. The stats say Dallas wins at home, but not by 4. We give the Falcons decent odd to cover the four points this one and we will be looking to keep the line as low as possible.

Fact: The Falcons have given up zero sacks in the last four games.

Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants (-7, 46)

Opening Line: -7, 46.5

Where the early action is: 70 percent – Giants

Comments: The Giants get the popular opinion here because they are highly ranked and have covered four out of six spreads this season. That’s enough to keep the backers coming.

The number is painted Giants -7 and looks poised to stay that way right up to game time.

As good as Arizona looked last week in Seattle, the Cardinals simply do not play well at the Meadowlands. In fact, the last time they won in that stadium was in 1999. However, No one is really sure what’s going to take place in this game. The Cardinals’ defense was outstanding last week and for right now they aren’t a one-dimensional team anymore. The Cards should give the Giants all they can handle this week. We give the Giants big odds to come out with the win, but on the other side, give Arizona moderate odds to cover 7.

Fact: Eli Manning has only 22 completions in the past two games.

What Bettors Need to Know: Cardinals at Giants
By VICTOR RYAN

Still No. 1

Drew Brees and the Saints blitzed the Giants No. 1 pass defense last week for 369 yards and four touchdowns and yet the G-Men remain No. 1 in defense. While that shows how dominant the Giants pass defense was through the first five games, they now face the league’s No. 6 passer in Kurt Warner in an intriguing matchup of the last two NFC champions.

Warner was 32-of-41 for 276 yards and two touchdowns in the Cardinals 27-3 dismantling of the Seahawks last week. All-Pro wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald had a breakout performance as well, with 13 catches for 100 yards. Warner this season -- like Brees last week -- has done an excellent job using all the weapons at his disposal.

“Kurt Warner is having a real good year,” Giants coach Tom Coughlin told the Associated Press. “He is throwing the ball very well. All four receivers are involved. The tight end is involved. The backs – Tim Hightower is the third-leading receiver. They have excellent distribution. The numbers are spread around real good.”

The Giants defense will have to rebound from last week’s debacle in which they gave up 34 points in the first half and 493 yards for the game. A major culprit was the lack of a pass rush. The Giants did not record a sack after getting 15 during their 5-0 start.

“We just made some mistakes that we can’t make, especially when you’re playing a team of that caliber,” cornerback Corey Webster said. “So we take the film, we take the whipping that they issued out, and we go back to start working hard and compete.”

The Arizona aerial attack could be hindered this week as wide receiver Anquan Boldin is listed as questionable because of an ankle injury. If he does not play, Steve Breaston would into the No. 2 receiver spot.

Gaining ground

The Cardinals lead the league in rushing defense with 59.6 yards a game, but are dead last in pass defense with 273.2 yards a game.

The Giants are unquestionably a run-first offense and it will be interesting to see if the Cardinals lofty rush rating is simply a mirage. Consider that four of the five Cardinals’ opponents rank 22nd or worse in rushing offense and two of those teams are 28th or worse.

If the Cardinals run defense holds up, Eli Manning and No. 1 receiver Steve Smith will be expected to do the heavy lifting. Smith is tied for the league lead with 41 receptions and has 525 yards to top the NFC.

“We’re going to put him in some different spots and do different things with him,” Manning said about Smith. “He is doing a good job of everywhere he goes, running routes, catching the ball and getting open. We just have to keep doing that with him and all the receivers.”

Injuries

In addition to Boldin, the only other significant injury news for the Cardinals is running back Chris “Beanie” Wells being listed as questionable with a hip injury. As for the Giants, defensive tackle Chris Canty (calf), cornerback Aaron Ross (hamstring) and linebacker Michael Boley (knee) have all been ruled out. Right tackle Kareem McKenzie is questionable because of a groin injury.

Line Movement

The Giants opened as 6.5-point favorites and the line has been moved to -7 virtually everywhere. The total opened at 46.5 and has been moved to 46 at most betting shops.

Weather

The forecast for East Rutherford calls for partly cloudy skies and a low of 42 degrees. Winds will be coming out of the northwest at 10 miles per hour.

Head-to-Head

Manning threw for 240 yards and three touchdowns in the Giants’ 37-29 win as 3-point road favorites vs. the Cardinals last November. The Cardinals, which historically have struggled when traveling east, have lost seven of their last eight road games against the Giants.

Trends

The under is 6-2 in the last eight head-to-head meeting…Arizona is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games overall…The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last five games as underdogs…New York is 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine home games.

Giants, Cardinals in primetime
By Judd Hall

The Cardinals were just minutes shy of winning last February’s Super Bowl, but came up short. Arizona (3-2 straight up, against the spread) then found itself in the spot of trying to make the postseason after losing the big game: a feat last accomplished by the Seattle Seahawks in 2007.

Arizona will get its chance to prove that they have what it takes to make its second straight playoff run since Gerald Ford was president by taking on the Giants at 8:30 p.m. EDT on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

There is reason to believe that the Cards will be back in the postseason after what we’ve seen out of them over the last two weeks.

Ken Whisenhunt’s crew was able to use a goal line stand to hold off the Texans’ comeback bid for a 28-21 win as six-point home favorites on Oct. 18. Arizona’s defense has stepped up in a big way this season, ranking eighth in scoring defense (18.4 points per game) and tops in stopping the run (59.6 rushing yards per game). Last year, the Cardinals were giving up 110.3 YPG on the ground and teams were scoring 26.6 PPG.

Last Sunday, Kurt Warner completed 32 of his 41 passes for 276 yards and a pair of touchdowns as the Cards dominated Seattle as three-point road pups 27-3. And Arizona’s defense absolutely manhandled the Seahawks by not allowing them to convert any of their 11 third downs. They also sacked Matt Hasselbeck five times for a total of 40 yards.

New York (5-1 SU, 4-2 ATS) enters this game with something to prove after getting smacked down last weekend against the Saints as a three-point road underdog, 48-27. The Giants couldn’t find any rhythm on offense, converting three of their 10 third downs.

Eli Manning was playing in his own personal Hell by completing only 14 of his 31 passes for 178 yards with one pick and one score. To give you an idea of how bad it was for Manning, he completed back-to-back passes just three times against New Orleans.

The Giants’ running game didn’t do anything to help out either by gaining a paltry 84 yards against the Saints. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs had just 17 carries combined. Bradshaw normally has 11.3 carries per game, while Jacobs handles the ball 17.8 times per game this season.

While New York couldn’t make any ground by running the ball, its defense failed to hold down the Saints’ rushing game. New Orleans picked up 133 yards last weekend. This shouldn’t surprise anyone as the Giants also gave up 251 yards on the ground to Dallas in Week 2. All told, the G-men have given up 110.3 YPG this season. Compare that to last year when they were allowing 95.8 YPG.

What bodes well for the Giants is the fact that Arizona rarely runs the ball. The Cards are dead last in the NFL with 19.8 carriers per game so far this year for an average of 57.6 YPG on the ground. That’s right, the Rams, Buccaneers and Titans are having more success than the defending NFC champs at running the ball.

This game does mean a lot to both sides, but a victory carries more weight for Arizona right now. The Cardinals are currently tied with San Francisco for the lead in the NFC West. And the odds are very good that only one of those two teams will get a ticket to the postseason. New York is currently sporting a 1 ½-game lead on the Cowboys and one-game spread on the Eagles in the NFC East right now.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened the line for this game with the Giants as 6 ½-point home favorites with the total of 48. Bodog, like many other sportsbooks, have now set New York as a seven-point home “chalk” with the total moving down to 46. You’re getting great value to take the Cardinals to get the outright win on a plus-260 (risk $100 to win $260).

Arizona has come through as a road pup this year, going 3-0 SU and ATS. The ‘under’ has hit in two of those three. The Cards are just 1-2 SU when listed as road underdogs after winning outright as a road pup the week before, but a stellar 3-0 ATS.

Home teams in the NFL this season that are seven-point favorites or more are 21-4 SU, but 15-10 ATS.

Over the last three seasons, New York is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when a seven-point home fave. The ‘over’ is 6-3 for the Giants in those matchups.

The favorites have been paying off recently on Sunday Night Football as they’ve covered the spread in three straight games. The ‘under’ has been the right wager for NBC’s showcase tilt by going 5-2.

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Line Moves for Week 7
By Judd Hall

No matter how much we see of something cash in one week, it always seems be balanced out the following Sunday in the NFL. Two weeks back there were five favorites of 9 ½-points or better. Those faves posted a 4-1 record both straight up and against the spread.

Last week wasn’t nearly as surprising with six heavy favorites on the board, all of them getting heavy action from the public. Luckily for the betting shops, balance was restored to the force last weekend. Week 6 of the season saw the big favorites go 4-2 SU, which is to be expected. But the sportsbooks feasted on “chalk eaters” as the faves went 2-4 ATS.

We’re seeing a return to normality this week in the NFL with just three teams being favored by at least nine-points. There isn’t any argument about the faves this week as Indianapolis (-13 at St. Louis), Green Bay (-9 at Cleveland) and New England (-15 versus Tampa Bay in London) are all playing lesser opponents.

This Sunday’s marquee matchup comes with the unbeaten Vikings making the trip to Western Pennsylvania for a showdown with the defending champion Steelers. The public was fairly even in their betting pattern on this game since coming out with Pittsburgh as a 3 ½-point home favorite. Now it is currently up to 5 ½ at most betting parlors.

Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, is going to be very busy with this matchup. “Last Sunday, we opened this game up at Pittsburgh -3 ½. This will be one of our high volume games, and by keeping the favorite a bit lower in this match will help create two-way action. Minnesota has been by far our bettors most popular team, balancing Vikings games has been near impossible. This week we are looking to get off lop-sided Vikings action.”

Some people might also think that Minnesota should get a little more respect since they’re unbeaten. Mr. Scott helps put some perspective on the Vikes’ hot start. “This line doesn't reflect their perfect record, had their wins be more convincing this line would be 3 points or less.” That makes complete sense when you consider that Brett Favre’s crew beat the 49ers and Ravens by the grace of God.

While that line makes sense, some were surprised by the Chargers being only favored by four-points at Kansas City. VegasInsider.com” expert handicapper Marc Lawrence thinks the Bolts are right where they should be. “For openers the Chargers take to the division road with one less day to prepare off the Monday night game. They have covered the spread in only one game this season and head coach Norv Turner is a notoriously slow starter. Both games against the Chiefs last year resulted in one-point victories for San Diego.”

Randy Scott gives us some clarity on San Diego’s short number. “The Bolts are banged up on defense, and playing in Arrowhead is one of the tougher places to play. The home team here is just coming off their first win of the season, a road win. The Chiefs are expected to step up for this game. They've played SD tough in recent meetings.”

Could this game be considering this as a trap for gamblers to get caught in? “Looking to attract San Diego action may seem like a trap, but this line shouldn't be at -6 anyway. So -4.5, -5 and -5.5 are the parameters for this game.”

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Total Talk - Week 7
By Chris David

Week 6 Recap

For the second consecutive week, the totals posted a 7-7 mark. There is a reason why they play 60 minutes in football folks and total bettors witnessed that in a quartet of games. Contests between the Jags-Rams, Ravens-Vikings and Bucs-Panthers were all on great paces to stay ‘under’ the number. That was before they saw 27, 35 and 47 posted respectively in the second halves of those games. It works both ways and people who had the ‘over’ on the Houston-Cincinnati tilt witnessed 31 points in the first half and then 14 in the third. Unfortunately, the two teams combined for a bagel in the fourth and the combined 45 barely slipped ‘under’ the closing number of 46.5. After six weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 47-43 (52%).

Looking ahead, six teams (Ravens, Broncos, Lions, Jaguars, Seahawks, Titans) instead of four will be on bye this week, which means we only have 13 games to wager on. Ten of the three games on tap this week are non-divisional, which doesn’t help with past history.

London Looming

The NFL heads to the United Kingdom this weekend as New England and Tampa Bay meet at Wembley Stadium in London. This will be the third straight year that the city will host a game and the first two battles were competitive. The Giants defeated the Dolphins 13-10 in 2007 and the Saints held off the Chargers 37-32 last year. Looking at the outcomes, it’s easy to guess that the total went 1-1. The weather and surface has always been big in this matchup, since London gets a ton of rain. Currently, clear skies with temperatures in the sixties are expected for Sunday.

As far as the matchup goes, New England is coming off a 59-point effort in a snowstorm last Sunday against Tennessee. Will the Patriots come close to that effort again? Hard to tell but we do know the Bucs’ defense is giving 28 PPG. The key will most likely be the Tampa Bay offense (14.8 PPG) which can’t do much behind quarterback Josh Johnson. Carolina ran wild against the Bucs last week and most would expect the Pats to do the same on Sunday. If Tampa wants to stay in this game, it will have to keep Tom Brady and company off the field, which is easier being said than done. Oddsmakers at betED.com opened the total at 45 for this battle overseas.

The Afternoon Unders

Once again folks, the ‘under’ trend in the late afternoon games continued to steamroll the betting public. Week 6 watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 and ironically, the only game that went ‘over’ was the Patriots-Titans battle that was played in a snowstorm. Plus, Tennessee was shut out. How often does that happen? After last week, the ‘under’ is 17-7 (71%) in the 4:00 ET matchups. There are five contests that will be played in the late session this week and what’s different about this set is that four of them will be played in the Eastern or Central time zones. Only the Raiders-Jets matchup is on the West Coast.

Sunday Night Shootout?

The Cardinals and the Giants go head-to-head on Sunday Night Football this week and oddsmakers have the total hovering between 46 and 47 points. Last year, the Cardinals saw the ‘over’ go 11-5 in the regular season, plus 3-1 in the postseason. Things have changed in the desert for the Cardinals this year, especially on defense. Arizona has been stout against the run (59.6 YPG) and its offense hasn’t been cranking just yet, which has produced a 4-1 ‘under’ mark.

The G-Men have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 so far, which has been helped by an offense averaging 29.7 PPG. The defense is still ranked first in total yards and first against the pass too, which is Arizona’s strength. The number is high and the fireworks could be hindered for this matchup. Another thing to note is the season trends on SNF, which has watched the ‘under’ produce a solid 5-2 (71%) record.

Monday Night Madness

The ‘over’ on MNF improved to 6-1 (86%) after last week’s shootout in the Denver-San Diego (34-23) matchup, which was helped with three special team touchdowns. This Monday, Philadelphia heads to Washington for a NFC East battle and something has to give here. The Eagles have watched the ‘over’ go 4-1 while the ‘under’ has gone 5-1 in Washington’s first six games.

Books have posted a low total (37.5) and head oddsmaker Randy Scott of betED.com talks about the number. “The public believes that Washington has had so many issues scoring this year plus the Eagles’ offense looked anemic in Oakland last week. This total is really based on recent stats, but we know two-way action is coming because everyone bets these games. Holding a solid number is more the practice, than the practice of heading action off on the less popular games,” explained Scott.

Six of the last eight have gone ‘under’ the number and more importantly, six saw the outcome decided by single digits. Tight games are a perfect recipe for ‘under’ plays.

We know the Redskins aren’t the best team but they have been competitive albeit against lesser competition. The four losses were by 6, 5, 3, and 6. Washington’s defense gave up 23 in Week 1 to the Giants (defensive touchdown) but it’s held the last five opponents to 14.6 PPG.

Fearless Predictions

All we can say about last week is ouch. No need to rehash, you can check out the losses in last week’s column but let’s just say we would play them again if we had too. On the year, the totals have come to 5-5 (-50) and the teasers are 2-3 (-100). Based on one-unit plays, we’re in the hole for $150 after five weeks. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Falcons-Cowboys (47.5)

The number is a little high but one thing you look for when betting an ‘over’ is capable quarterbacks that can move the chains consistently. Matt Ryan and Tony Romo both can do so and we expect them to on Sunday. The Falcons were exposed by the Bears last week and if it wasn’t for turnovers, Chicago puts up an easy 21 points, perhaps more. Dallas enters this game with an extra week to prepare and the offense should be ready to roll. In its last game against the Chiefs, the Cowboys attack put up over 500 yards but was hindered by three turnovers and 13 penalties. If each team gets 12 possessions, don’t be surprised to see 4-5 scores by each team in this one.

Best Under: Saints-Dolphins (47)

It takes a lot to fade a New Orleans offense that has shown it’s capable of eclipsing this total itself but the situation fits for a low-scoring affair. Two teams have been able to curb New Orleans this year, Buffalo and N.Y. Jets, and they both come from the AFC East. This could be a coincidence but these teams are known to knock heads and the Dolphins are no different. Miami knows Chad Henne doesn’t have enough bullets to keep up with Drew Brees so it will more than likely run, run and run some more. The Saints’ defense has been formidable this year but the “Wildcat” formation hasn’t been slowed down at all. A late game in South Florida has a 40% chance of precipitation, which should make the game even uglier. All three Miami games have gone ‘over’ at home but two of them saw a ton of points needed in the last 15 minutes. An extra week to prepare should help the Fins get ready for New Orleans, who might still be celebrating after its win over the Giants. Another tight game but this one dips under.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Falcons-Cowboys Over 38.5
Saints-Dolphins Under 56
Bills-Panthers Under 46

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Bengals, Bears set for battle
By AllStar.com

Not many people would have picked this game at the start of the season to be a marquee matchup in week 7, but the new and improved Bengals have changed that in a hurry. The return of Carson Palmer, the rebirth of Cedric Benson, and an exciting defense have people in Cincy excited again. You can’t say the same for the fans in “The Windy City.” Changes were made in the offseason that were expected to not only win the NFC North, but also to make a run at the Super Bowl. We still like the Bears, especially when you see teams like Cleveland, St Louis, and Detroit are still on the schedule.

Quarterbacks:
Jay Cutler came to Chicago with a cannon arm, and a bit of an attitude which reminded Bears fans of a guy named Jim McMahon. We like Cutler’s skills, but he hasn’t been that great early on. Cutler comes into the game with an ugly QB rating of 86.9, and his 10/7 TD-INT ratio is very average. Cutler lacks a true go to guy, and had been hoping either Brandon Marshall or Terrell Owens would find their way to the Chicago. The biggest problem for Cutler so far has been his 3 picks in the red zone that must improve against a speedy Bengals D.

Fast Fact: Cutler is 13-0 in games when he has a QB ratio of 100+

If you just look at Carson Palmer’s numbers (8TD’s, 7 INT’s 78.3Ratio) it wouldn’t come close to telling you the true story. Yes the numbers are ugly, but ask anybody inside that locker room, and to a man they tell you Palmer is the leader of this team. He will be under a steady rush (Bears 10 sacks in 5 games/Bengals 11 allowed in 6) so he will need to make better decisions faster. Chad Ochocinco is still the main weapon Palmer will need help from his other receivers if the Bengals hope to improve to 5-2.
FF: Palmer has at least 1 TD pass in 5 straight

Running Backs:
We can’t quite figure out what the problem is with Matt Forte. Forte who exploded on the scene in 2008, has been average at best in 09. Averaging just 60 yards a game, and having reached the end zone just once in five games, Forte needs to get back to form if the Bears are going to make a run at the playoffs. Backup Adrian Peterson is doubtful for this game with a knee injury.

In the offseason when asked to make a prediction about his team, QB Carson Palmer said he expected big things out of Cedric Benson. Most people laughed, because it’s the Bengals who have not been good, and Benson, who looked like his career was over after leaving the Bears. Maybe the lesson learned should be, when a quiet guy like Palmer makes a bold statement, don’t laugh it off. Benson has 531 yards rushing, and has scored 4 TD’s. The Bears are solid against the run, but we like Benson to have another nice day.

FF: When Benson has 20+ carries, he averages 98 yards, and his teams are 9-1-1

Wide Receivers:
We like the mix of receivers Cutler has to choose from. Devin Hester may not be at the top of the WR rankings, but his 14 yard average per catch, and 2 TD’s have made the coaches happy. Look for the Bears to use the wildcat in order to get Hester the ball more often here then he has so far. TE Greg Olsen quietly is becoming one of the better Tight Ends in the NFC, and Cutler has gone to him often when a first down is needed. Our pick for a big game though is Johnny Knox. We talked to guys in Chicago this week, and they love the rookie. His route running is impressive, and the Bengals secondary has had some rough moments. If Forte continues to struggle, Cutler will rely on Olsen and Knox to keep the Bears in the game.

FF: Knox is the first Bears Rookie since Walter Payton in 1975 to score a TD in four straight.

Chad Ochocinco may be annoying to some fans, but you cannot deny he is a quality receiver. Ocho is also tough as nails as he proved two weeks ago jumping up after a brutal hit by Ray Lewis. We are not sure how big a factor he will be in this game since the Bears will have outstanding CB Charles Tillman covering him. From what we have been told, the game plan is simple. Palmer expects a steady rush, and plenty of blitz packages, so the running game must be established early to allow guys like Ochocinco, and Andre Caldwell a chance to make plays. Chris Henry has been sick, and will be a game time decision.

FF: Ochocinco is 2nd in the NFL with 9031 receiving yards since 02 trailing only Torry Holt

Defense
The Bears are again one of the best teams on defense in the league allowing just less than 300 yds a game in total offense. We like the trade they made to get Gaines Adams from Tampa for a mid round pick. Adams, who has had 6 sacks each of the last two years, will be used to slow down Cedric Benson, and also has the wheels to blow by Cincinnati’s struggling offensive line and get to Palmer. The Bears do not blitz often, but that should change as they try to force Palmer out of the pocket.

We have asked coaches, broadcasters, and scouts to explain why Rey Maualuga dropped to the second round of the draft, and we keep hearing the same thing. “There is a story that scared teams away.” If that is true, and if the story ever comes out, nobody knows. What we do know is Maualuga has been terrific in his rookie season. One concern may be his ability to cover the Tight End, and that could come into play Sunday. Even with the loss of sack master Antwan Smith, we look for the Bengals to blitz Cutler, and show pressure packages. The knock on Cutler has always been his poor decisions when defenders are in his face, and the Bengals will hope to keep that trend going.

FF: Bengals are 7-2 in their past nine games.

Injuries:

CHI: LB- Pisa Tinoisamoa (out) DT-Tommie Harris/knee RB-Adrian Peterson/knee (doubtful)

Cincy: T-Andre Smith& DE Antwan Odom (out) S-Roy Williams/forearm(doubtful) WR-Chris Henry/illness (questionable)

Betting Trends:

Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games
The UNDER is 9-3 in the Bears last 12 road games
The UNDER is 4-1 in the Bengals last five home games

Cards fly into New York
By AllStar.com

Finally, the Arizona Cardinals are looking like the team that rolled through the playoffs to the Super Bowl, just in time for a Sunday night prime-time match up with the New York Giants.

Arizona’s dominating 27-3 victory in Seattle on Sunday marked the first time this season the inconsistent Cardinals have put together a complete game.

The Giants are coming off a disastrous performance in New Orleans; the Giants defense put no pressure on Drew Brees and didn’t blitz much. It wasn't the attacking, pressure-filled team they usually see, expect that to change with 38 year old Kurt Warner and the Arizona Cardinals coming to town.

The full-touchdown spread seems a bit high at first glance but there are few reasons to back the underdog Cardinals against the Giants on Sunday night in the Meadowlands. The last time these teams met, Nov. 23 of last year in Arizona, Eli Manning out dueled Kurt Warner in New York's 37-29 road win last Nov. 23 as he completed 26 of 33 passes for 240 yards and three touchdowns. Warner was 32 of 52 for 351 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Even in their Super Bowl season, at home, the Cardinals couldn’t handle Big Blue. Kurt Warner has looked terrible in the Cards two defeats this season.

Quarterbacks:
The best way to keep down the Cardinals' offense is to keep it off the field. The Giants can play keep-away better than anyone with their dominating rushing attack. They piled 207 yards rushing on the Ravens, who came in as the NFL's No. 1 run defense, and have three consecutive 200-yard rushing games. Eli Manning has limited his turnovers this season and is getting a nice feel for his group of young receivers. Look for Coughlin to try and establish the run and keep Warner and crew on the sidelines. The Cardinals have given up a ton of big plays this season if that is the case Sunday, this will be over early for the Cards.

Kurt Warner dissected Seattle last week. The 38-year-old quarterback completed 32 of 41 for 276 yards and two touchdowns, with one interception. Warner threw to Larry Fitzgerald 15 times, and the All-Pro receiver caught 13 of them, tying a career best. Warner is having a good year getting all four receivers involved including the tight end and Tim Hightower is the third leading receiver on the team. Warner's offensive line has been shaky at times this season. He has been sacked 10 times in five games and seven of those sacks came in Arizona's two losses. Warner will be challenged by the Giants' pass rush and a hostile stadium on Sunday.

Running Backs:
Brandon Jacobs ran for 33 yards on seven carries against New Orleans. His 4.7-yards-per-carry average was his highest of the season. Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw have yet to have a break out game this season and the Cards defense is No. 1 against the rush in the NFL so look for Eli to be spreading the ball around through the air if the running game cannot be established early for the Giants. The Giants rush for 147 yards per game in 2009 and the Cards give up 59.6 ypg. rushing this season something has to give.

Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells have had a horrible season. The Cards rank dead last (tied with S.D.) in rushing in the NFL with a 2.9 ypc. average. The Cards average only 19 rushing attempts per game by far the lowest in the NFL. No. 1 draft pick Beanie Wells is taking the course of so many Ohio State Running Backs before him in the NFL, he was either used up in Columbus or he doesn’t quite have the heart for the NFL. Either way, Wells is a bust in 2009 and the balance the Cards envisioned when they drafted him is out the window. It will be Warner to Boldin, Fitzgerald and Breaston all season long.

Wide Receivers:
Anquan Boldin and Larry Fitzgerald have combined for 16 touchdowns and 129 receptions. Fitzgerald, Boldin, Breaston are simply the best receiving corp. in the NFL. Boldin, as usual, is banged up coming in to the game but he always seems to get on the field and he always seems to make an impact. Breaston is hobbled by a shaky knee.

Steve Smith, Mario Manningham and Hakeem Nicks are the surprise receiving corp. of the NFL. Smith (41-525-4) and Manningham (24-392-4) both have 4 touchdown receptions and Nicks has a 19.8 ypc average and 3 touchdowns. This is a very solid young group of young receivers who may one day soon command the respect of Fitzgerald, Boldin and Breaston.

Defense:
The Giants defense was torched last week by Drew Brees and the Saints, they would love to redeem themselves against the Cardinals. That will not be easy, the receiving tandem Arizona has of Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston is perhaps the best in the league, though Boldin has been hampered by an ankle injury and Breaston by a knee injury. Kurt Warner is more of a “quick strike Kurt Warner in 2009”. Warner is averaging 2.9 seconds per play in getting release of the ball on pass plays. This will make it nearly impossible for the vaunted Giant front four to get at Warner in spite of the Cards shaky offensive line.

The Cardinals are No. 1 in the NFL this season in rushing defense, and that they are giving up fewer points per game (18.4) than the Giants (19.8), who after the Saints debacle still somehow are No. 1 total defense. But in these three meaningful games this season they gave up a total of 124 points. The Cardinals in Prime Time on the road will have their hands full this week.

Special Teams:
Domenik Hixon made a huge impact in his first game back from knee injury. Nixon had 230 yards on seven kick returns He also added 51 yards on a pair of punt returns and caught three passes for 22 yards.

Neil Rackers is a very solid 7-8 in field goals this season. Lawrence Tynes is 15-18 in field goals this season.

Keys to the Game:
Penalties have hurt the Cardinals the past three weeks. Their margin for error will be narrow against the Giants, because they won't have many opportunities on offense. False starts, holding calls and other penalties will make moving the ball even more difficult.

The Cardinals have given up a lot of big plays, mostly because of missed tackles. If they do that against the Giants, the game will be over early. The Cardinals must show gap discipline and tackle the runner when they have a chance.

Both teams must convert touchdowns in the Red Zone. Both teams have been settling for too many field goals when they get in the Red Zone.

Injury Update for Saturday October 24th :

DT Chris Canty, Michael Boley and Aaron Ross are out this week.

Kareem McKenzie (groin) is listed as questionable. Anquan Boldin and Beanie Wells are listed as questionable

RB Ahmad Bradshaw returned to practice Friday and is probable.

Betting Trends:

The Cardinals are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games
The Cardinals are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games
The Giants are 17-5 ATS against a team with a winning record
The Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last nine home games
The UNDER is 6-2 in the last eight games between the two teams