Week 4 Home Underdogs
By Kevin Rogers
The home underdogs have come through at a solid rate through the first three weeks of the NFL season, hitting at a 63% clip (12-7-1 ATS). Week 3 was the first week in which betting the 'dogs was not a profitable venture, going 3-4 ATS with the Chiefs, Rams, and Bears coming through in SU fashion. What's in store for Week 4 home underdogs? Let's take a look at the five clubs looking to bark loudly this Sunday.
Bengals (-3, 37) at Browns
The battle of Ohio takes place in Cleveland as Eric Mangini's squad searches for their first win of the season. The Browns came up short once again in a 24-17 setback at Baltimore, but Cleveland managed to cover as 12-point 'dogs. The Bengals vaulted above the .500 mark with a 20-7 victory at Carolina, the first cover as a favorite for Cincinnati since the regular season finale against Kansas City in 2008.
Cleveland has failed to break the 17-point mark in any of its three defeats, but showed some improvement in the ground game thanks to a 144-yard effort from Peyton Hillis. The problem is the Browns' secondary was unable to slow down Anquan Boldin, who hauled in three touchdown catches for Baltimore. Now, Cleveland has to slow down both Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens this Sunday, who combined for 79 yards against Carolina.
The Bengals have not be a solid favorite since the start of 2009 (1-9 ATS), but Cincinnati improved to 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS inside division play over this span following the Week 2 win over Baltimore. Cincinnati's defense faces another unproven quarterback this week in Seneca Wallace after silencing Jimmy Clausen last Sunday, who threw for 188 yards and an interception.
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS the last five games at home, including a pair of covers last season as underdogs against San Diego and Pittsburgh (as double-digit 'dogs). The Browns have been good in the back-end of division games since 2005, owning a 6-2 ATS mark.
Jets (-5, 36½) at Bills
Things have turned around quickly for Rex Ryan's bunch after a one-point loss in the season opener to the Ravens. New York rebounded with consecutive division victories over New England and Miami, while Mark Sanchez has not thrown an interception in those wins. The Bills finally busted out from an offensive standpoint, but fell short in a 38-30 shootout loss to the Patriots.
Following a 2-4 SU/ATS ledger against the AFC East last season, the Jets have covered both division games, while finishing 'over' the total with 59 combined points the last two weeks. The Jets failed in the 'chalk' role against the Ravens, but last season's AFC runner-up was 3-1 SU/ATS when laying points on the road in 2009, including a victory in Toronto over the Bills. New York did take care of its business against some of the league's bottom-feeders, winning road contests over Tampa Bay, Buffalo, and Oakland.
The change at quarterback for the Bills benefited the offense after Ryan Fitzpatrick threw for 247 yards and two touchdowns against New England. Buffalo broke the 30-point mark on the road for the first time since December 2008 at Denver, while improving to 6-3 ATS the last nine games as an away underdog. On the flip side, the Bills have been a horrible home 'dog, cashing just once in the last seven opportunities since 2007.
Seahawks (-1, 39½) at Rams
These two NFC West squads are coming off home underdog victories last week as Seattle goes for its 11th straight win over St. Louis. The Seahawks pulled off its second victory in the home 'dog role with a 27-20 triumph over the Chargers last Sunday. The Rams broke through the win column for only the second time in the last 29 games with a 30-16 victory over the Redskins.
Steven Jackson is listed as questionable for the Rams after suffering a groin strain against Washington, but the St. Louis offense overcame the injury with 365 yards. The Rams will try to snap a 15-game skid against division opponents as St. Louis dropped the season opener to Arizona, 17-13. The defense has played well through the first three weeks, holding each opponent to 17 points or less, resulting in a 2-1 record to the 'under.'
The Seahawks picked up a pair of kickoff returns for touchdowns from Leon Washington in the San Diego win, despite getting outgained by 247 yards. Seattle is 2-11 SU in its previous 13 road contests, but the two victories are against St. Louis. The Seahawks are own a 2-10 SU/ATS mark since 2007 on the road following a home victory.
Texans (-3½, 43) at Raiders
Houston stumbled last week as a home favorite in a 27-13 defeat to Dallas, as the Texans travel to the Black Hole to battle the 1-2 Raiders. Oakland was on the doorstep of a second straight victory, but Sebastian Janikowski's field goal at the gun sailed wide in a 24-23 loss at Arizona. The Raiders did manage to cover in the defeat, after going 0-2 ATS the first two weeks.
The Texans pushed as a road favorite in the Week 2 comeback victory at Washington, rallying from a 17-point deficit. Houston's luck ran out against its cross-state rivals last week, being held out of the end zone for the first 58 minutes until a mop-up touchdown by Kevin Walter. The Texans are just 1-4 SU on the road off a home loss under Gary Kubiak, including favorite defeats at Atlanta ('07) and Jacksonville ('09).
Oakland's offense has picked up since the change to Bruce Gradkowski at quarterback, racking up 364 yards at Arizona. The Raiders are 6-6 ATS under Tom Cable as a home underdog, including several solid SU wins last season over the Eagles and Bengals. The last time the Texans invaded the East Bay, Houston was dealt a 27-16 setback in 2008, as the Raiders cashed easily as seven-point 'dogs.
Colts (-7½, 46½) at Jaguars
Indianapolis has rebounded from its opening week loss at Houston by racking up two solid offensive efforts in wins over the Giants and Broncos. The Colts will look to keep the Jaguars down when the two AFC South rivals hook up in Jacksonville.
The Jags have been embarrassed in each of the last two weeks, getting outscored 66-16 in lopsided defeats to the Chargers and Eagles. Jacksonville squeaked by Denver in the opener, but Jack Del Rio's team is just 4-14 ATS the last 18 games at home.
The Colts own an 8-2 mark the previous 10 meetings against Jacksonville, but the Jags have managed five covers in this span. Indianapolis has claimed each of the last three meetings in North Florida, while covering the spread each time.
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NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 4
By SHAWN HARTLEN
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+4.5)
Why Jets cover: Buffalo cut ties with Trent Edwards and handed the job to Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has a career quarterback rating of 68.6 percent. New York is fourth in the league in rush defense, so a lot will be riding on Fitzpatrick to score through the air.
Why Bills cover: The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. The underdog is 20-8 ATS in their last 28 meetings. Darrelle Revis is questionable to suit up again this week.
Total (37): Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1)
Why Ravens cover: The road team is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The underdog is 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Steelers cover: Charlie Batch is capable of leading the offense with Ben Roethlisberger out and Pittsburgh is 4-0 straight up at home against Baltimore under Mike Tomlin.
Total (34.5): Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in Pittsburgh.
Seattle Seahawks at St. Louis Rams (+1.5)
Why Seahawks cover: They are 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Steven Jackson is dealing with a strained groin.
Why Rams cover: St. Louis is coming off a big upset victory over the Redskins on Sunday and have played both of their previous two opponents close. They have also held all three to under 17 points.
Total (38.5): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings in St. Louis.
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (-7)
Why 49ers cover: The underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings. Mike Singletary has promoted Mike Johnson as offensive coordinator, who he says has a better understanding of what the team is trying to accomplish on offense.
Why Falcons cover: The combination of Jason Snelling and Michael Turner could run all over a San Francisco defense that is allowing over 111 yards on the ground per game.
Total (41.5): Unless the 49ers figure out how to get into the end zone, there might be only one team putting up points.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+3)
Why Bengals cover: They are 5-2 straight up at Cleveland under coach Marvin Lewis. The Browns have yet to score more than 17 points in a game this season.
Why Browns cover: The underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Peyton Hillis has been given the starting running back job after punishing Baltimore last week with 144 yards rushing.
Total (38): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Cleveland.
Denver Broncos at Tennessee Titans (-6.5)
Why Broncos cover: They have a run defense that is good enough to slow down Chris Johnson and a high-powered passing game that can move the ball downfield in a hurry.
Why Titans cover: They own the NFL's seventh-best defense and should have no problem shutting down the Broncos run game which ranks 30th in the league.
Total (41.5): Denver has struggled to get into the end zone and the Titans have only allowed two offensive touchdowns in their three games.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-13.5)
Why Panthers cover: They are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings in New Orleans. Road team is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Pierre Thomas is dealing with an ankle injury.
Why Saints cover: They brought in John Carney to fix their field goal kicking woes. Panthers' rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen is struggling to complete passes and turning the ball over at an alarming rate.
Total (45): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-14.5)
Why Lions cover: They have been able to keep games close with tough opponents this season. Green Bay has struggled to run the ball since Ryan Grant's season ending injury in Week 1.
Why Packers cover: The Lions are 1-7 ATS in their last eight meetings and 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 meetings in Green Bay. Detroit is likely to be without both Matthew Stafford and Jahvid Best.
Total (45.5): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Green Bay.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (+3.5)
Why Texans cover: They are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Oakland has a hard time stopping the run, which bodes well for Arian Foster, who is averaging 135 yards on the ground per game.
Why Raiders cover: Andre Johnson will be a game-time decision for the Texans with an ankle injury he re-aggravated last week. If he can't go, Oakland's star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha will be free to roam and create chaos elsewhere.
Total (44): Houston has the offense to put up big numbers and a defense that hasn't held an opponent under 24-points.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+7)
Why Colts cover: They are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Jacksonville. Road team is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings.
Why Jaguars cover: Indy is banged up at linebacker and with Bob Sanders still out, Maurice Jones-Drew could have a big day running the ball and making catches out of the backfield.
Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Jacksonville.
Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
Why Redskins cover: They are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Philadelphia. The road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Donovan McNabb will be poised to play well in his return to Philadelphia.
Why Eagles cover: Michael Vick and wide receiver DeSean Jackson are really clicking. Washington is coming off back-to-back losses in which it gave up 30 points in each contest.
Total (43): Philadelphia is scoring at will and Washington can't stop anyone.
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. The road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Beanie Wells returned last week and should take some of the pressure off Derek Anderson.
Why Chargers cover: Anquan Boldin is putting up big numbers in Baltimore and now Steve Breaston will join fellow wide receiver Early Doucet (groin) on the sidelines with an knee injury. Arizona's passing game was bad before they got hurt.
Total (46): San Diego's NFL-best offense should have no problem against the Cardinals' 26th-ranked defense.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4)
Why Bears cover: The road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. They have the NFL's best run defense which will pressure Eli Manning, who has struggled with interceptions, to beat them through the air.
Why Giants cover: Chicago doesn't run the ball very well. If they can't establish a running game early on, the Giants' pass rushers could tee off on Jay Cutler and force him into costly turnovers.
Total (44): Both teams have a knack for throwing the ball. That could mean lots of time on the clock for putting up points.
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+1)
Why Patriots cover: They have the offense to score with anyone. Wes Welker owns his former team, accumulating 371 receiving yards in his last three meetings with Miami.
Why Dolphins cover: The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings. New England's defense can't stop anyone and is allowing over 27 points per game and has had trouble defending the Wildcat formation in the past.
Total (45): New England's offense is potent and its defense is porous. Both teams could score easily.
NFL Week 4's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By SCOTT COOLEY
Arizona Cardinals at San Diego Chargers (-9, 45.5)
Arizona kick returners vs. San Diego kick coverage
The Chargers are off to a slow start, again, but their 1-2 record could easily be unblemished if the kick coverage wasn’t awful. San Diego gave up kickoff return touchdowns of 101 and 99 yards to Leon Washington last week. In the season opener, Dexter McCluster ripped off a 94-yard punt return for a score.
Norv Turner’s coverage unit has allowed 424 kickoff return yards and 204 punt return yards—by far the most in the league in each category. Opponents’ average starting position after a kickoff is the 37-yard line. A few starting veterans volunteered to move to the kick coverage team this week and Turner said changes would be made.
“We have issues to address in our coverage teams,” he said. “We have some young guys that need to grow up, and while they’re getting ready to grow up, we need to put some guys in there that have done it so we don’t have the issue.”
The Cardinals rank third in kickoff return yardage, averaging 27.1 per attempt. LaRod Stephens-Howling is licking his chops after taking a kick back 102 yards for a score last Sunday.
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+5, 36.5)
Dustin Keller vs. Buffalo pass defense
There haven’t been many bright spots in Buffalo this season and covering opposing tight ends has been a dark cloud.
Last week, the Bills allowed New England rookie tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez to combine for 108 yards and a touchdown on nine catches. In Week 2, Jermichael Finley posted 103 receiving yards during the Green Bay slaughtering. And in the season opener, Miami tight end Anthony Fasano averaged 15.3 yards per reception with a long of 21 yards.
Sunday, the Bills will face the hottest tight end in the league not named Antonio Gates. Dustin Keller has hauled in 13 balls for 213 yards and three touchdowns over the past two weeks. Keller possesses the perfect combination of speed and size or as Damien Woody put it, "Dustin's just a matchup nightmare because he's a hybrid guy."
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9, 46)
Indianapolis pass offense vs. Jacksonville pass defense
The Jaguars secondary is susceptible to giving up big plays. Last Sunday against Philadelphia, that unit yielded touchdowns of 61 and 45 yards to DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin. Malcolm Floyd cashed in on the weak link the week before with a 54-yard touchdown grab. In the season opener, a trio of Denver receivers registered catches of 25 yards or more.
The Colts have connected on three scoring plays of 20 yards or more this season including a 50-yarder by Dallas Clark and a 73-yarder to Austin Collie. Indianapolis ranks third in the NFL in passing at 331.3 yards per game while the Jags are ranked 29th in pass defense (289.0 ypg). Jacksonville has surrendered the most passing touchdowns in the league with 7.
Jacksonville cornerback Derek Cox was benched for the second straight week against Philly but his replacement, David Jones, hasn’t fared much better. There may not be better options and that’s not a good thing for Jack Del Rio and the Jags.
Houston Texans at Oakland Raiders (+3.5, 43.5)
Houston defense vs. Oakland defense
This isn’t a head-to-head mismatch, but the Raiders have looked far superior to Houston defensively through three games of the season.
The Texans rank 31st in total defense, allowing an average of 423.7 yards per game. The pass defense is the worst in the NFL while giving up nearly 370 yards per outing. Houston’s run defense has been pretty good but that’s because teams don’t need to run the ball when they can throw on the secondary all day. The most glaring statistic for this unit is that it hasn’t forced a turnover all season.
Oakland currently ranks third in the league in total defense and second in pass defense (127.7 ypg). The rush defense has been suspect at times (much like last year) but it did hold Steven Jackson to 75 yards in Week 2. The Raiders have registered five takeaways in 2010.
NFL Total Bias: Week 4 Over/Under Selections
By RYAN STETSON
"Never heard of him before in my life. I know who he is now."
That was Baltimore Ravens linebacker Terrell Suggs Monday morning on the Dan Patrick Show, talking about Cleveland running back Peyton Hillis, after the 6-foot-2, 250-pound wrecking ball smashed through the Ravens for 144 rushing yards and a touchdown while chipping in another 36 receiving yards.
Let’s just hope for the Baltimore coaching staff’s sake that Suggs had at least been alerted to Hillis’ 4.5 yards per carry average and two touchdowns through the first two weeks of the season. Now, maybe Suggs was just playing around. Maybe he knew of Hillis, but didn’t know that he was capable of that.
Either way, if he had even managed to glance at a highlight show leading up to Week 3’s game he would have seen Hillis looking like Mike Alstott with an extra gear, running downhill every time he touched the ball, carrying Chiefs and Buccaneers on his back.
I know I did – that’s why he was starting for my fantasy team. But the thing is, I wasn’t hoping for much. I figured that with Cleveland starting its backup quarterback and the Ravens allowing just 25 points through two weeks, I might get a lucky and Hillis would pick up a goal-line score. So I got a lot more than I bargained for - which was great for my fantasy team, but not so great for my weekend wagers.
Baltimore’s total indifference to Hillis helped the Browns hang around in a 24-17 loss, putting the game over the 36.5 total. There’s nothing more frustrating than one team taking another for granted and screwing up your wager. Maybe I’m a little more sensitive because I couldn’t pick a winner for the life of me anyway last week – 0-3 in this column and I don’t even want to talk about my pointspread picks.
I guess the moral of the story is watch out for these letdown spots. They can pop up at any time – even in an NFC North division battle.
Damn you, Ravens.
Chicago Bears at New York Giants (-4, 44)
After the way Julius Peppers and the Chicago Bears got after Aaron Rodgers last week, I’m seriously concerned for Eli Manning’s well being this week. Giants tackles David Diehl and Kareem MacKenzie have blown six blocks combined over the first three games of the season, three of which lead to fumbles by Manning against the Colts.
Lovie Smith isn’t messing around with his defensive line this season. He benched former Pro-Bowler Tommie Harris last week and got some great pressure from the front four against the Packers. Even if the Giants managed to tighten up their line, they could be without wideout Marion Manningham and will have to content with Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs flying around the secondary.
Pick: Under
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-13.5, 44)
Bad spot here for the Panthers, coming into the Superdome against a Saints team coming off a frustrating overtime loss to the Atlanta Falcons. I think Drew Brees is going to put on an air show in this one. Lance Moore is stepping up with Reggie Bush out and even though it looks like running back Pierre Thomas will be a game-time decision with his ankle injury, it shouldn’t matter much against the Panthers.
New Orleans has played over the total in two of their three games so far and we haven’t seen anything close to the Saints’ best offensive effort.
Pick: Over
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (1, 46.5)
Patriots are pretty much a throw-only club at this point with their stable of mediocre running backs banged up and that’s not necessarily a bad thing the way they’re drawing up their passing plays. They’re getting the ball out quickly when they need to and Brady’s taking his deep shots when they’re there.
But look out for the Dolphins. Miami’s defense is quick enough to create chaos in the backfield (just ask Brett Favre) and should be able to force a couple of turnovers.
There is always a lot of weird stuff going on with these Pats-Dolphins games and while I hate taking the under in most Pats games, I think it’ll be a scrap that stays below the number.
Pick: Under
NFL Pointspread and Total Moves: Week 4
By Blake Edwards
Broncos at Titans (-6.5, 44)
Line movement: Titans opened at 6.5 and we haven't moved off that number. We've seen a major move on our total though. We opened 41.5 and we're now dealing 44. We moved from 41.5 to 42.5 after booking sharp action on the over. We moved from 42.5 to 43 because the public was also betting this game over. With nearly 80 percent of the action on the over, plus sharp action on the over, we're now dealing 44 on this game. That's a solid 2.5 point move off our opening number.
Comments: The rational for the over action is the lack of a running game for the Broncos. They can't pound the ground and have looked great with their passing game (ranked No. 1 in passing offense). Also, the Broncos defense has been suspect at best. In its only road game, Denver gave up 24 points to a Jacksonville team that has scored only 16 points in its other two games.
Ravens at Steelers (-2.5, 34.5)
Line movement: We opened this game Steelers -1.5, went down to -1 before sharp money pounded the Steelers, which pushed us up to -2.5.
Comments: The Ravens are 0-4 their last four trips to Pittsburgh and 1-8 in their last nine in Steel City. Another factor for this line movement is the health of Ravens RB Ray Rice, who hurt his knee last week and while he's listed probable, he's certainly not 100 percent.
Bengals (-3, 37) at Browns
Line movement: We opened the Bengals -3 (-120) but we're currently dealing 3 flat. While we've seen more action on the Bengals in this game, we took a sharp bet on the Browns at +3 (even). Even though we've seen 65 percent of the action bet on the Bengals, we're more than comfortable with our current position.
Comments: The Bengals went 6-0 vs. the AFC North last year and already beat the Ravens in Week 2 of this season, making them 7-0 straight up vs. AFC North opponents. While the Bengals swept the Browns last year, the Browns were competitive and covered both games.
Lions at Packers (-14, 45.5)
Line Movement: We opened the Packers a 14.5 point favorite against the hapless Lions. No question, we were expecting Packer money in this game as they've attracted heavy money in every game they've played so far this season. With early action on the Lions, we've moved this game down to 14 and since moving to 14 we've seen very good two-way action.
Comments: I'm surprised money has shown up on the Lions. They'll be playing their third game without their starting QB Matt Stafford and their rookie sensation RB Jahvid Best was hurt last game. He's listed as probable but he saw limited practice time and didn't finish the game last week. I think his injury is more significant than people realize.
Panthers at Saints (-13.5, 44.5)
Line movement: We opened the Saints 13.5 and have not moved off our opening number. Very limited action on this game so far which is a bit surprising considering the Saints are a very public team. It’s been pretty even on the action we have booked on this one.
Comments: The Panthers have played the Saints tough, going 3-0-1 ATS in their last four games. Also, Saints QB Drew Brees tweaked his knee and will be wearing a brace for the first time all season.
49ers at Falcons (-6.5, 42.5)
Line movement: We opened the Falcons -7 and our first bet was on the dog. We went to 6.5 and have been going back and forth between Falcons -7 and -6.5 all week. We've booked this game very even and as long as it doesn't land 7, we should make money.
Comments: I think it's a real bad spot for both teams. The Falcons are off a monster win on the road vs. the Super Bowl Champs. It was a divisional win and again, a big win for this Falcon team. Could be a let down spot for them. The 49ers are playing back to back road games and we've got a West Coast team traveling east and playing an early 1:00 ET start time. This is a very popular teaser bet and the Falcons are tied to just about every teaser bet we've written so far.
Seahawks (-2, 40) at Rams
Line Movement: We opened this game Seahawks -1.5 and initial action was on the Rams so we went to Seahawks -1. Since going to -1, we've seen mostly Seahawk money come in on this game. Friday we went back to Seahawks -1.5 and Saturday morning we went to Seahawks -2.
Comments: We've been very aggressive moving this game because of the unknown status of Rams RB Steven Jackson. Jackson is officially listed as questionable. Every report I've read tells me he's a game-time decision. I don't know how anyone could bet this game without knowing his status, with that said that's why we've been moving this number more aggressively than usual.
Jets (-6.5, 36.5) at Bills
Line movement: Jets opened -5 and so far all the money bet on this game has been bet on the Jets. It's by far our most one-sided game going into Sunday. Over 90 percent of the action is on the road favorite and we've moved this number to 6.5 strictly because the action on the Jets is getting overwhelming.
Comments: I think sharp money is just waiting to bet this game, letting the public pound this game up to 6.5 and then take Bills, who, don’t forget, held their own in their only home game this season.
Colts (-7, 46) at Jaguars
Line movement: There’s been a ton of line movement early in the week on this game. We opened Colts -9 (+100) but eventually went to 8 flat, which is essentially the same number. We booked pretty much even action at Colts -8 but we did take some sharp action on the Jags and went to 7.5 and eventually to 7. Since going to Colts -7 we've seen mostly Colts action at that number. Sixty-five percent of the action is on the Colts and I suspect we'll be going back to 7.5 at some point.
Comments: While the Jags have been awful their last two games, they always seem to play the Colts tough and with the Jags at 1-2 this season, this is pretty much a must win game for this team.
Texans (-3 -125, 43.5) at Raiders
Line movement: We opened the Texans as solid 3.5-point road favorites. We eventually dropped down to Texans -3 (-120) and we've seen nothing but Houston money since. Roughly 85 percent of the money is on the Texans and we've gone to -3 (-125) as a result.
Comments: Even though we're very one-sided on this game, there is very little volume so far. It's probably the least bet game of the day so far.
Cardinals at Chargers (-9, 46)
Line movement: Chargers opened -8 and we've seen nothing but Charger money in this game. We went to 8.5 and we're now dealing Chargers -9. Ninety percent of the early action is on the favorite
Comments: I could see us closing this game Chargers -10. I believe this is more or less a bet-against-the-Cardinals play and not necessarily a bet "on" the Chargers.
Redskins at Eagles (-5.5, 43)
Line movement: Eagles opened 6.5 and we took an early sharp bet on the visiting Redskins. We went to 6 and have gone to 5.5, but I believe we'll be going back to 6 at some point on Sunday. Over 60 percent of the action is on the Eagles.
Comments: We all know the storyline with this game, Donovan McNabb return to Philadelphia. While McNabb and his counterpart Michael Vick are going to garner all the headlines, I think the story of this game is going to come down to who plays better defense.
Bears at Giants (-3.5, 44)
Line movement: Giants opened -3 and sharp money laid the field goal. We went to 3.5, then 4 before going back to 3.5 on what is pretty much a must-win situation for the Giants. They're 1-2 and can't afford to go 1-3. While sharp money is backing the Giants, the public is betting on the 3-0 Bears. Roughly 70 percent of the action is on the dog in this one.
Comments: It also looks like a very difficult spot for the Bears. Chicago is coming off a big home win over NFC North rival Packers. They're working on a short week and have to travel and take on a desperate Giants team.
Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 3 Recap
For the second straight week, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 mark. We didn’t see the scoreboard get lit up that hard but the numbers were kind of short and sometimes there is no room for error with these totals. After four weeks of play, the ‘under’ holds a slight 24-22-2 edge on the season. Four teams on bye this week, with Dallas, Kansas City, Minnesota and Tampa Bay taking the hiatus.
Bad Beat of the Week
The Chiefs-49ers matchup was a doozy and one that some gamblers will be replaying over and over (no pun intended). The total closed at 38 and the game looked like a clear-cut ‘under’ winner with Kansas City holding a 10-3 lead at the break. The Chiefs put together three-touchdown drives in the second and led 31-3 with less than two minutes to play, and that’s when the fun began. KC was content on running the clock out but for whatever reason, San Francisco head coach Mike Singeltary decided to call not one but two timeouts. Down 28, are you serious? Let me say that again, are you serious? Sure enough, the Chiefs get stuffed on a fourth-and-three and the Niners take over with 1:31 left. Go check out the play-by-play and get a good chuckle. Keep in mind fellow bettors, for everybody who had the ‘under’ there was somebody who had the ‘over’ too and half of them probably didn’t even see the events unfold.
Higher and Higher
Totals of 45 or higher have watched the ‘under’ go 6-4 on the season and it could easily be 8-2 to the ‘under’ if it wasn’t for the last two New Orleans results, both of those contests going ‘over’ at the end with game-winning field goals. In Week 4, we have three more games with the dreaded number of 45 or higher and surprisingly, New Orleans isn’t playing in any of them.
Detroit at Green Bay (45.5): The Lions have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 and the Packers have seen all three of their games go ‘under’ the number, yet we have a high total. Green Bay was held in check during its lost to Chicago (17-20) on Monday but the offense still put up close to 400 yards. The series has watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 in the last six meetings but will Detroit be able to match scores with Green Bay. Sure the Lions put up 32 at home against the Eagles, but only 14 and 10 in their two road games. It shows you that playing backup quarterbacks on the road can be dangerous – at times.
Arizona at San Diego (46): Even though Arizona is 2-1, it could easily be 0-3. The Cardinals put up 24 points last week, but the offense only managed 227 total yards and one touchdown came on a kickoff return. The loss of Kurt Warner at QB and WR Anquan Boldin has taken all of the consistency out of an attack that was once feared. San Diego’s offense has taken a step back as well, with key losses and injuries, but it still has the potential to bust the 30-point plateau on a weekly basis. The question is if you take the chance this Sunday. Both clubs have seen their last two contests go ‘over’ the number.
New England at Miami (46.5): See below
Divisional Trends to Watch
Baltimore at Pittsburgh: The ‘over’ has gone 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings, including the last five encounters played at Heinz Field. Keep in mind the Steelers are allowing 11 PPG, while the Ravens have surrendered 13.7 PPG.
Cincinnati at Cleveland: The ‘under’ is on a 4-1 run in this series. After giving up 38 points (2 TDs via special teams) to New England in Week 1, the Bengals have only allowed 10 and 7 the past two weeks, both victories.
Carolina at New Orleans: Last year, the ‘under went 2-0 but the one number was super-high (51.5) and it just missed (30-20), plus the Saints rested their starters in the other contest (23-10).
Seattle at St. Louis: The ‘over’ has cashed in three of the last four meetings. Make a note that 14 of the Seahawks’ 27 points against the Chargers in Week 3 came on kickoff returns and the 31-spot at home against San Francisco was aided with short tracks via turnovers.
N.Y. Jets at Buffalo: It’s been a vice versa series lately. Last year, the ‘under’ went 2-0. In 2008, the ‘over’ cashed in both outings. Then we witnessed two low-scoring affairs in 2007 which was offset by two ‘over’ tickets in 2006. If you’re into these weird trends, then go ‘over’ on Sunday and when the two play in New York later in the season.
Washington at Philadelphia: Another little back and forth game in this matchup, with the ‘over’ going 2-0 last year, but the ‘under’ prevailed to a 2-0 mark in 2008. Two differing gunslingers (McNabb & Vick) so past history should be taken lightly here.
Under the Lights
The Dolphins will be showcased for the second straight week in a nationally televised battle, this time around on Monday against New England. Miami fell to the N.Y. Jets 31-23 last Sunday in an unexpected shootout, at least by the oddsmakers. The total closed at 35 ½ and the combined 54 points easily shot ‘over’ the number by the start of the fourth quarter.
This Monday, the total is hovering between 46 and 47 points and some pundits believe the Dolphins should be able to score some points and why shouldn’t they? The Patriots have surrendered 24, 28 and 30 points in three weeks, all resulting in ‘over’ tickets. Fortunately, New England has QB Tom Brady and a load of offensive talent, which has translated into 38, 14 and 38 points. The Dolphins made the Jets’ Mark Sanchez look great last week and comparing him to Brady is insulting. You figure both teams will get four to five scores on the board, just a matter if you get sixes.
Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘under’ the number and the trend on MNF this year has been all about the ‘under’ and the underdog too. Since the line is nearly a pick ‘em, this could be the first primetime showdown on MNF that sees some serious points posted.
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NFL Week 4 Analysis
Broncos (1-2) @ Titans (2-1) - Denver making just second trip to Tennessee; they won here 37-16 back in '04, but are 1-2 so far in '10, with faves covering all three games- they lost only road game 24-17 at Jacksonville. Broncos didn't have a takeaway in either loss, but had four in their win- they're allowing 84.3 rushing yards/game. Titans ran ball for 205-161 yards in their wins, 46 in loss to Steelers. Road team won all three Tennessee games. Titans are 9-6 as home favorite since '08. Broncos are 7-11 as road dog since '07, 5-9 in last 14 games as non-divisional dog. AFC South faves are 5-2 vs spread in non-division tilts.
Ravens (2-1) @ Steelers (3-0) - Last game without Big Ben for Steelers, who allowed opponents only two TDs on 36 drives so far this year, and have run the ball for 150 ypg with three different QBs playing. Steelers won four of last five series games, as Ravens lost last four visits here by 31-3-9-3 points. This is third road game in four weeks for Ravens, who allowed only two TDs on 33 drives, with 11 3/outs, but in three games, Baltimore started only one drive in enemy territory, while foes started nine in their half of field. Ravens held firt three opponents to 2.6/4,4/5.0 yards per pass attempt. Steelers are going to try to run ball. Home favorites are 1-6 vs spread in divisional games.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3) - Cincy is 9-2 in last 11 series games, winning four of last five played here (won 23-20 in OT here LY); after getting crushed in Foxboro, Bengals forced eight turnovers (+6) in last two games, giving up two TDs on 26 drives (12 3/outs). Browns have been outscored 23-7 so far in second half this year- they led two of three games at half. Cleveland ran ball or 173 yards in Baltimore last week, so they're not horrible, but it hasn't shown itself in win column yet. Browns need to move chains better; they've gone 15 drives where they didn't get a first down, compared to nine for opponents. Home underdogs are 7-1-1 vs spread in divisional games so far this year.
Lions (0-3) @ Packers (3-0) - Green Bay on short week after loss in Chicago late Monday night, but they've won nine in row vs Detroit; Lions lost 19 in a row in Wisconsin, losing last four by average score of 27-11. (Last time Lions won in Wisconsin, Brett Favre was a rookie with the Falcons). Lions are 2-7-1 in last ten games as road underdog, losing away games this year 19-14/24-10, both against divisional foes. Pack are 6-1 as double digit favorite since '02, are 13-9-1 as home favorite since '06. Lions are 3-8-1 in last 12 games as double digit underdog. Green Bay swept LY's series, 26-0/34-12. All three Packer games this season stayed under the total.
Panthers (0-3) @ Saints (2-1) - Champs let one slip away last week, missing a 29-yard FG in OT, now they face 0-3 Carolina team that lost first three games, all by exactly 13 points, but Panthers are 7-1 in last eight visits to Louisiana (lost 30-20 (+12) LY), covering last five. Carolina is 7-2 in last nine games vs New Orleans, but rookie QB Clausen struggled last week, completing a single pass in first half. Saints are now 2-7 as home favorite in divisional games since 2007; they're 2-6 as double digit favorite since 2001. Even before losing last week, Saints had won first two games by only 5-3 points, and that was with NO winning field position battle in every game, by 7-11-7 yards.
49ers (0-3) @ Falcons (2-1) - Winless Niners sacked OC Raye during week, so no one to blame now but players; third road game in four weeks for SF, with a second trip in row east of Mississippi- they lost first two road games 31-6 at Seattle, 31-10 at KC, giving up seven TDs on 23 drives. Niners are already -5 in turnovers, lost field position battle by 3-11-14 yards. Atlanta got big win in Superdome last week; since not scoring TD in Week 1, they've scored eight in last two games, seven on drives of 70+ yards. Falcons ran ball for 221-202 in last two games. Niners allowed 207 rush yards last week, after giving up 127 yards on ground in first two games combined. NFC South teams are just 1-5-2 vs spread outside their division so far this year.
Seahawks (2-1) @ Rams (1-2) - Seattle is 10-0 in this series since Rams won a road playoff game in '04 (both teams were 8-8). Bradford got first NFL win last week, this is chance for Rams to end truly dreadful streak in division play (0-15 SU vs NFC West rivals since Week 11 of '07, 4-14-1 vs spread last 3+ years). OL opened up enough holes so St Louis ran for 133 yards last week, even with Jackson not playing in second half. Home team is 3-0 in Seahawk games so far; Hawks lost 11 of last 13 road games, but both wins were here. Seattle's three TDs last week came on two kick returns and 41-yard drive, so offense isn't clicking yet. Huge game in Spagnuolo's rebuilding plan.
Jets (2-1) @ Bills (0-3) - Huge trap game for Jets, after primetime win in Miami last week, with Favre coming to Swamp next Monday night; Gang Green won three of last four series games- they’re 2-4 in last six visits here (beat Bills in Toronto LY). Jets scored seven TDs on 19 drives in last two games, with no turnovers and Sanchez averaged 6.1/9.1 yards/pass attempt. Bills cut Opening Day starting QB Edwards; what happens if Fitzpatrick gets hurt? They allowed 72 points in last two games (nine TDs on 19 drives), giving up 8.8 YPA in both games. Home underdogs are 7-1-1 in divisional games so far this season, but hard to endorse Buffalo here, against Jet squad that has shown it can run ball (132.7 ypg) and now pass it.
Colts (2-1) @ Jaguars (1-2) - Indy is 14-4 in series, but only once in last eight visits here have Colts won by more than 8 points (29-7 in ’07, -3 off bye); Colts on road for third time in four weeks- they scored seven TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games by 24-14 points. Jaguars are home for third time in four games; they lost last two games by 25 points each, scoring one TD on 22 drives; signing former Bill QB Edwards puts cloud over Garrard’s head, especially after his 13-30/54 passing day in 28-3 loss last week. Indy scoring 29.7 peg despite converting just 14-37 (37.8%) on 3rd down; they usually do better than that. Colts are 12-4 in last 16 games as road favorite; Jags are 3-5 as home dog since 2007.
Texans (2-1) @ Raiders (1-2) - Houston gets mulligan for losing to desperate Cowboys last week, but if they’re playoff team, they win this game, vs disappointed bunch of Raiders who had Arizona beat last week, but lost when Janikowski choked on game-winning 32-yard FG at gun. Texans won four of five series games, taking two of three here; none of the four wins were by less than 7 points. Not sure if Gradkowski can exploit Texan defense that has only one takeaway in three games, allowing 7.1/9.8/9.5 YPA in last game before they get star LB Cushing back. In their history, Texans are just 1-4-1 as road favorite, though they’re 5-2 SU in last seven road games. Oakland ran ball for 147 ypg in first three games; last two games were decided by total of 3 points.
Cardinals (2-1) @ Chargers (1-2) - San Diego off to usual sputtering start, allowing two kick returns for TDs last week; they’ve lost battle of field position all three games, by 9-5-11 yards, making it harder for prolific QB Rivers (755 passing yards last two games). Chargers are 8-3 in series, winning five of six played here; they’re 18-12-1 as home favorite since 2006. Arizona’s two wins are by total of five points; they lost 41-7 in only road game, and have given up 354 rushing yards in last two games. Bolts have nine offensive TDs, have allowed only four, but are still 1-2; only one of four TDs they allowed came on drive longer than 53 yards. No faith in Anderson to play well on road; Redbirds are just 10-34 (29.4%) on 3rd down conversions.
Bears (3-0) @ Giants (1-2) - Chicago only unbeaten left in NFC, travelling on short week after Monday night rivalry win; road team won last seven series games, with Bears winning last three visits here. Chicago’s last loss to Giants here was 31-3 in playoff game 20 years ago. Bears only have one turnover in last two games (+4), after turning it over four times in opener; they covered (+7) at Dallas in Week 2, after going 1-8-1 as road underdog last two years. Giants are -5 in turnovers last two games (outscored 67-24) with only one takeaway; if you don’t force turnovers vs. Martz Madness, Bears will score 20+ points- they scored 47 points in last two games despite going just 4-20 on 3rd down conversions. Giants are 3-6 vs. spread in last nine games as home favorite.
Redskins (1-2) @ Eagles (2-1) - McNabb returns to Philly to face team he led for decade; emotional night for him. Rivals split last 10 series games, with season series being swept in four of last five years. Redskins are 3-2 in last five visits here, but gave up 30 points in losing last two weeks, blowing 20-7 halftime lead over Texans, then getting pushed around some in last week’s upset loss at St Louis- they’ve been outscored 46-13 in second half so far this year. Philly scored 63 points in winning last two games behind mobile QB Vick (268 rush yards, 11-27 on 3rd down, no turnovers). Eagles are 9-5 as home favorite since 2008, but are just 1-6 since ’07 as home favorite in division games. Washington is 4-1-1 vs. spread in last six games as a road underdog.
Patriots (2-1) @ Dolphins (2-1) - Pats are 1-5 in last six road games, allowing 27.8 ppg; New England is 10-5 in last 15 series games, 4-3 in last seven visits here. if Sanchez averaged 9.1 YPA vs. Miami defense last week, what will Brady/Moss do? Patriots allowed 24-28-30 points in first three games (six TDs, nine FGs on 27 drives). Pats scored 38 points in both wins, 14 in their loss; only one of their TD drives is less than 72 yards. NE is now 1-6-1 vs. spread in last eight divisional games; Miami is 7-2 in their last nine. Dolphins lost field position battle in all three games, have yet to start drive in enemy territory. Patriots were 16-25 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-11 in loss. Miami allowing 35.8% of 3rd down plays to succeed. All three Patriot games went over the total.
Tips and Trends
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
RAVENS: Baltimore will be playing their 3rd road game in 4 games this season, with all 3 road contests against teams with a winning record. The Ravens are 2-1 SU and 1-2 ATS so far this season. The Ravens have struggled offensively this year, scoring more than 10 PTS only once this year. Outside of WR Anquan Boldin, the rest of the offensive stars for Baltimore are having slow starts to the season. RB Ray Rice has only 270 total yards this season, and has been held scoreless as well. QB Joe Flacco has more INT's than TD's this year, 5 and 4 respectively. 3 of those TD's passes have been thrown to Boldin. Boldin has been a huge acquisition for the Ravens, as the team finally has a legit, impact receiver. Defense still rules the day for the Ravens, as Ray Lewis and company are the face of this franchise. Baltimore is allowing less than 14 PPG this season, quite impressive considering the amount of road games they've played. The Ravens have only allowed an average of 116.7 passing YPG, the best in the NFL. Baltimore has plenty of revenge on their minds, as they lost 2 of the 3 meetings SU last season.
Ravens are 2-6-1 ATS last 9 games against the AFC.
Under is 7-1-1 last 9 road games.
Key Injuries - DL Terrance Cody (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)
STEELERS: (-1.5, O/U 34.5) Pittsburgh is one of the few remaining undefeated teams in the NFL. Certainly this team has outperformed the expectations placed on them without the services of QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers are one resilient team though, and they are the perfect example of how one player isn't bigger than the team. The Steelers are a perfect 3-0 ATS this year, with 2 of those games coming as the listed underdog. Pittsburgh is being led by their defense, as they have yet to allow more than 13 PTS to any of their opponents. Allowing only 11 PPG is always going to lead to a successful season. The Steelers rush defense is only allowing 59 YPG, 3rd fewest in the NFL this season. Offensively, RB Rashard Mendenhall has led the way for Pittsburgh. Mendenhall has rushed for for more than 110 YPG this season, including 2 TD's. The QB carousel has been filled with veterans, with Charlie Batch taking the latest turn. Batch was excellent against Tampa Bay, throwing for 3 TD's and having a QB rating over 100. The Steelers won 2 of the 3 meetings SU last year against the Ravens, and didn't lose ATS either.
Steelers are 3-8 ATS last 11 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 18-7-1 last 26 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - NT Chris Hoke (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 13
Chicago Bears at New York Giants
BEARS: Chicago is one of the biggest surprises in the NFL this year, as they are one of the only undefeated teams left at 3-0 SU. The Bears are playing like the teams of their past, winning with defense and special teams play. The Bears have been the listed underdog in 2 of their 3 games, making their undefeated record that much more impressive. Chicago is coming off an emotional win on MNF last week, so they are playing on a short week tonight. QB Jay Cutler has been impressive to start this season by throwing for 870 YDS, the 5th most in the NFL. The ultimate success for Cutler is his touchdown to INT ration, which is at 6-2 so far this season. Offensive Mike Martz has done an amazing job with this offense, transforming them into an efficient passing offense. RB Matt Forte is having a strong start to this season, as he has more than 300 total yards and 3 TD's. Defensively, the Bears are only allowing 39.7 rushing YPG, by far the fewest in the NFL. Besides stopping the run, Chicago has been very opportunistic in causing turnovers as well. The Bears are 3-8 ATS in their past 11 road games overall.
Bears are 1-8-1 ATS last 10 games as a road underdog.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Key Injuries - DB Major Wright (hamstring) is out.
Projected Score: 24
GIANTS: (-3.5, O/U 43.5) New York is flat out struggling, as they are facing intense scrutiny from the New York media. The Giants are 1-2 both SU and ATS this season. Back to back blowout SU losses have many people wondering whether or not Coach Coughlin has lost his team. New York is looking to avoid their worst start to the season since 1997. Considering this team has started the past 2 seasons 4-0 SU, their start this season makes their organization and fans feel that the world is coming to an end. The Giants have 10 turnovers this season, the 2nd most in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has 6 interceptions this year, tied for the most in the NFL. Besides the INT's, Manning has completed 65% of his passes for 810 YDS. RB Ahmad Bradshaw has taken over sole responsibility for the rushing attack, as he has 250 rushing YDS this year with 2 TD's. Defensively, the Giants are allowing 28.3 PPG, 3rd worst in the NFL. The Giants have lost their past 5 games at home SU to the Bears, so there is plenty of revenge on the minds of New York. The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past 9 games against a team with a winning record.
Giants are 3-9 ATS last 12 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games against the NFC.
Key Injuries - C Shaun O'Hara (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)