Underachieving Favorites
By Kevin Rogers
There are no road favorites in the NFL this week, but the theme for the Week 8 card is the number of below .500 home favorites. Five clubs that have two wins or less are laying points, which begs the question if they are overlooked teams or sucker bets. We'll take a look at this quintet, starting with the rematch of Super Bowl XXIV at London's Wembley Stadium between two struggling clubs.
Broncos vs. Niners (-1, 42) - 1:00 PM EST
Two teams that were expected to do more at this point travel overseas in hopes of finding a victory in London. The Niners lost to previously winless Carolina last week, the third defeat for San Francisco this season as a road favorite. The cellar-dwellers of the NFC West have changed out one Smith (Alex) for another (Troy) at quarterback as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State will get the start this Sunday.
The Broncos won't be let off the hook for probably the most embarrassing loss all season in the NFL, allowing 59 points to the inconsistent Raiders in a 45-point home setback. Denver had to be feeling like it was turning the corner following a last-minute loss to the Jets, but Josh McDaniels' squad is just 5-12 ATS since starting 6-0 last season. The Broncos have been the league's best 'over' team, cashing it in six of seven games.
The Niners are 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU as a favorite this season, including outright losses to the Seahawks, Chiefs, Panthers, and Eagles. San Francisco has lost four games by three points or less, while scoring 20 points or less five times this season. Both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in rushing offense, but the Niners will look to slow down Denver's ineffective ground game that is averaging just 68.4 yards/game.
Jaguars at Cowboys (-6½, 42½) - 1:00 PM EST
Dallas was in big trouble before Monday night's 41-35 home defeat to New York, sending the Cowboys down to 1-5. Wade Phillips' team found themselves in hot water when Tony Romo broke his left collarbone in the second quarter, as the Cowboys squandered a 20-7 lead with the Giants scoring 31 unanswered points in one span. Dallas looks to turn things around when another struggling club in Jacksonville invades Cowboys Stadium.
The Jags have lost two straight in ugly fashion following consecutive wins over the Colts and Bills. Jacksonville will get David Garrard back under center after missing the Kansas City loss with a concussion. The Jags are 4-10 ATS since November 2008 as a road underdog, including a 1-5 ATS run since a last-minute victory over the Jets last season.
The Cowboys are 0-4 SU/ATS as a favorite, including three losses at home. However, Dallas has bounced back nicely following a poor defensive performance as the Cowboys own a 9-0 ATS mark since 2005 after allowing 35 points or more in their last game. Dallas had outgained each of its first five opponents before allowing New York to rack up 497 yards, including 200 yards on the ground.
Redskins at Lions (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
Washington is listed as an underdog for the seventh time this season, but the Redskins keep finding a way to cash following last Sunday's 17-14 victory at Chicago. Mike Shanahan's team is 4-2-1 ATS, while being involved in six games decided by six points or less. The Lions come in off the bye week going for their second straight home victory after dumping the Rams, 44-6 in Week 5.
Detroit has been great to backers this season from a pointspread standpoint by covering five of six games. The only ATS defeat came at Minnesota in Week 3 as the Lions fell short of a cover by losing 24-10 as 13-point 'dogs. Being listed as a favorite is very rare for Detroit, who is 3-7-1 ATS since 2006, including the blowout victory of St. Louis as three-point 'chalk.'
The Redskins have been outgained in all seven games, but have found a way to hang around thanks to their defense allowing 14 or less points in three of their last four contests. Washington was knocked off at Ford Field last season as 6 ½-point road favorites, falling to Detroit, 19-14, as the Lions snapped a 19-game losing streak dating back to 2007.
Dolphins at Bengals (-2, 43½)- 1:00 PM EST
Miami is still seething after the disputed Ben Roethlisberger fumble in a 23-22 home loss to Pittsburgh. Following Big Ben's fumble, the ball was placed at the one-yard line resulting in a field goal, even though the officials weren't sure who recovered the ball in the end zone. Despite the Dolphins covering as three-point 'dogs, Miami sits at 3-3 as it heads north to Cincinnati to take on the struggling Bengals.
Cincinnati rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 25-24 lead at Atlanta last Sunday, but the Falcons scored 15 unanswered points to win the game, 39-32. The Bengals look to snap a three-game skid, as Marvin Lewis' team is 0-7 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite. To make matters worse for the Bengals, Cincinnati is 3-15-1 ATS as home 'chalk' under Lewis after allowing 20 points or more, including the Week 5 setback to Tampa Bay.
The Dolphins continue to be an odd team to figure out, winning all three road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Under Tony Sparano, Miami is 12-3 ATS as an away underdog, including the victories over the Packers and Vikings. The secondary will be tested against Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, as the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for seven touchdowns and one interception the last four games.
Titans at Chargers (-3½, 44½) - 4:15 PM EST
The defending AFC West champions have fallen to 2-5 out of the gate and it doesn't look like the Chargers are getting up. San Diego suffered its first home loss of the season with a 23-20 setback to New England, despite limiting the Patriots to 179 yards. The Chargers have outgained opponents in six of seven games, but the inability to score touchdowns in big spots has put this team in last place of the AFC West.
On the flip side, the Titans continue to impress with three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in each victory. There is no reason to underestimate Tennessee, who has tallied 29 points or more five times, even though Kerry Collins and Vince Young have shared time at quarterback. The Titans have taken care of business in two opportunities as an underdog with victories at the Giants and Cowboys, despite getting outgained by at least 190 yards in each game.
The Bolts have normally started slow under Norv Turner, but with November looming, this team needs victories. San Diego sits 2 ½ games behind Kansas City in the division race, as the Chargers have covered just two of seven games this season. The Chargers are 8-5 ATS in Turner's three-year tenure at home off a loss, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.
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