Underachieving Favorites
By Kevin Rogers
There are no road favorites in the NFL this week, but the theme for the Week 8 card is the number of below .500 home favorites. Five clubs that have two wins or less are laying points, which begs the question if they are overlooked teams or sucker bets. We'll take a look at this quintet, starting with the rematch of Super Bowl XXIV at London's Wembley Stadium between two struggling clubs.
Broncos vs. Niners (-1, 42) - 1:00 PM EST
Two teams that were expected to do more at this point travel overseas in hopes of finding a victory in London. The Niners lost to previously winless Carolina last week, the third defeat for San Francisco this season as a road favorite. The cellar-dwellers of the NFC West have changed out one Smith (Alex) for another (Troy) at quarterback as the former Heisman Trophy winner from Ohio State will get the start this Sunday.
The Broncos won't be let off the hook for probably the most embarrassing loss all season in the NFL, allowing 59 points to the inconsistent Raiders in a 45-point home setback. Denver had to be feeling like it was turning the corner following a last-minute loss to the Jets, but Josh McDaniels' squad is just 5-12 ATS since starting 6-0 last season. The Broncos have been the league's best 'over' team, cashing it in six of seven games.
The Niners are 0-5 ATS and 1-4 SU as a favorite this season, including outright losses to the Seahawks, Chiefs, Panthers, and Eagles. San Francisco has lost four games by three points or less, while scoring 20 points or less five times this season. Both teams rank in the bottom six of the league in rushing offense, but the Niners will look to slow down Denver's ineffective ground game that is averaging just 68.4 yards/game.
Jaguars at Cowboys (-6½, 42½) - 1:00 PM EST
Dallas was in big trouble before Monday night's 41-35 home defeat to New York, sending the Cowboys down to 1-5. Wade Phillips' team found themselves in hot water when Tony Romo broke his left collarbone in the second quarter, as the Cowboys squandered a 20-7 lead with the Giants scoring 31 unanswered points in one span. Dallas looks to turn things around when another struggling club in Jacksonville invades Cowboys Stadium.
The Jags have lost two straight in ugly fashion following consecutive wins over the Colts and Bills. Jacksonville will get David Garrard back under center after missing the Kansas City loss with a concussion. The Jags are 4-10 ATS since November 2008 as a road underdog, including a 1-5 ATS run since a last-minute victory over the Jets last season.
The Cowboys are 0-4 SU/ATS as a favorite, including three losses at home. However, Dallas has bounced back nicely following a poor defensive performance as the Cowboys own a 9-0 ATS mark since 2005 after allowing 35 points or more in their last game. Dallas had outgained each of its first five opponents before allowing New York to rack up 497 yards, including 200 yards on the ground.
Redskins at Lions (-3, 45) - 1:00 PM EST
Washington is listed as an underdog for the seventh time this season, but the Redskins keep finding a way to cash following last Sunday's 17-14 victory at Chicago. Mike Shanahan's team is 4-2-1 ATS, while being involved in six games decided by six points or less. The Lions come in off the bye week going for their second straight home victory after dumping the Rams, 44-6 in Week 5.
Detroit has been great to backers this season from a pointspread standpoint by covering five of six games. The only ATS defeat came at Minnesota in Week 3 as the Lions fell short of a cover by losing 24-10 as 13-point 'dogs. Being listed as a favorite is very rare for Detroit, who is 3-7-1 ATS since 2006, including the blowout victory of St. Louis as three-point 'chalk.'
The Redskins have been outgained in all seven games, but have found a way to hang around thanks to their defense allowing 14 or less points in three of their last four contests. Washington was knocked off at Ford Field last season as 6 ½-point road favorites, falling to Detroit, 19-14, as the Lions snapped a 19-game losing streak dating back to 2007.
Dolphins at Bengals (-2, 43½)- 1:00 PM EST
Miami is still seething after the disputed Ben Roethlisberger fumble in a 23-22 home loss to Pittsburgh. Following Big Ben's fumble, the ball was placed at the one-yard line resulting in a field goal, even though the officials weren't sure who recovered the ball in the end zone. Despite the Dolphins covering as three-point 'dogs, Miami sits at 3-3 as it heads north to Cincinnati to take on the struggling Bengals.
Cincinnati rallied from a 24-3 deficit to take a 25-24 lead at Atlanta last Sunday, but the Falcons scored 15 unanswered points to win the game, 39-32. The Bengals look to snap a three-game skid, as Marvin Lewis' team is 0-7 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite. To make matters worse for the Bengals, Cincinnati is 3-15-1 ATS as home 'chalk' under Lewis after allowing 20 points or more, including the Week 5 setback to Tampa Bay.
The Dolphins continue to be an odd team to figure out, winning all three road games at Green Bay, Minnesota, and Buffalo. Under Tony Sparano, Miami is 12-3 ATS as an away underdog, including the victories over the Packers and Vikings. The secondary will be tested against Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens, as the Dolphins have allowed opposing quarterbacks to throw for seven touchdowns and one interception the last four games.
Titans at Chargers (-3½, 44½) - 4:15 PM EST
The defending AFC West champions have fallen to 2-5 out of the gate and it doesn't look like the Chargers are getting up. San Diego suffered its first home loss of the season with a 23-20 setback to New England, despite limiting the Patriots to 179 yards. The Chargers have outgained opponents in six of seven games, but the inability to score touchdowns in big spots has put this team in last place of the AFC West.
On the flip side, the Titans continue to impress with three straight wins, while scoring at least 30 points in each victory. There is no reason to underestimate Tennessee, who has tallied 29 points or more five times, even though Kerry Collins and Vince Young have shared time at quarterback. The Titans have taken care of business in two opportunities as an underdog with victories at the Giants and Cowboys, despite getting outgained by at least 190 yards in each game.
The Bolts have normally started slow under Norv Turner, but with November looming, this team needs victories. San Diego sits 2 ½ games behind Kansas City in the division race, as the Chargers have covered just two of seven games this season. The Chargers are 8-5 ATS in Turner's three-year tenure at home off a loss, including a 2-1 ATS mark this season.
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NFL Poolies Cheat Sheet: Week 8
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5)
Why Bills cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Kansas City.
Why Chiefs cover: Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones head the league's top-ranked rushing attack against a Buffalo team that has the NFL's worst rush defense.
Total (44.5): Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings in Kansas City.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5)
Why Jaguars cover: The underdog is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Tony Romo is out for Dallas with a fractured left clavicle. David Garrard is expected to return from his concussion.
Why Cowboys cover: They could exploit a Jaguars run defense that has allowed almost 500 yards on the ground in their last three games. Jacksonville will be without right tackle Eben Britton who has a torn labrum.
Total (42.5): Over is 4-0 in the Jaguars' last four road games and 4-0 in the Cowboys' last four home games.
Carolina Panthers at St. Louis Rams (-3)
Why Panthers cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings in St. Louis.
Why Rams cover: Carolina's run game could struggle mightily with DeAngelo Williams battling a foot injury and Jonathan Stewart having a disappointing season.
Total (37): Under is 5-1 in the Rams' last six home games and 4-1 in the Panthers' last five games overall.
Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bearcats (-2.5)
Why Dolphins cover: They are 3-0 straight up and ATS on the road this season. Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown should have success against a Bengals defense that has yet to return to its 2009 form and is ranked 22nd in run defense.
Why Bengals cover: Miami's anaemic offense is only averaging 18.5 points be game and could find it hard to keep pace with Cincinnati's eighth ranked offense if it becomes a shootout.
Total (43.5): Under is 4-1 in the Dolphins' last five road games.
Washington Redskins at Detroit Lions (-1)
Why Redskins cover: Donovan McNabb has a higher passer rating (137.9) against Detroit than any other opponent. Ryan Torain has rushed for 335 yards and three scores since replacing injured Clinton Portis at tailback.
Why Lions cover: The home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings. They will get quarterback Matthew Stafford back from his shoulder injury.
Total (44): Under is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings and 3-0-2 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
Denver Broncos vs. San Francisco 49ers (-1)
Why Broncos cover: Troy Smith, who has a total of 13 pass attempts in the last two years, will start at quarterback for the Niners due to Alex Smith's shoulder injury.
Why 49ers cover: Denver's pathetic run defense is allowing 156 yards per game, including 328 to Oakland last week, and will have a hard time containing Frank Gore, who has been on fire.
Total (41.5): Over is 11-1 in the Broncos' last 12 games.
Green Bay Packers at New York Jets (-6)
Why Packers cover: Their secondary could get a big boost with the return of both strong safety Atari Bigby and cornerback Al Harris.
Why Jets cover: They have won three in a row over straight up over the Packers. Darrelle Revis' is finally back to 100 percent after his hamstring injury.
Total (42.5): Over is 5-0 in the Jets' last five games.
Tennessee Titans at San Diego Chargers (-3.5)
Why Titans cover: San Diego's sputtering offense could be without receivers Malcom Floyd and Legedu Naanee, who both have hamstring injuries.
Why Chargers cover: The Titans are 0-6 ATS in their last six meetings. Vince Young has knee and ankle injuries and Kerry Collins has a torn tendon in a finger on his throwing hand. Whoever starts at quarterback for the Titans will not be 100 percent.
Total (44): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Why Buccaneers cover: Max Hall has a concussion, Derek Anderson has been terrible and Arizona doesn't have any better options at quarterback.
Why Cardinals cover: Receiver Steve Breaston could return from his knee injury to boost the passing game. Despite their winning record, Tampa Bay has trouble getting the ball into the end zone and is only averaging 16.3 points per game.
Total (39.5): Under is 5-1 in the Buccaneers' last six road games and 11-2 in their last 13 games overall.
Minnesota Vikings at New England Patriots (-5.5)
Why Vikings cover: New England could be without defensive back and star special-teams player Pat Chung, who suffered a knee injury Sunday. Randy Moss knows the offensive playbook of the Patriots, which could play in the Vikings' favor.
Why Patriots cover: Brett Favre is having the worst season of his career and will be hobbled by fractures in his surgically repaired ankle, if he suits up at all.
Total (44): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Seattle Seahawks at Oakland Raiders (-1)
Why Seahawks cover: They are undefeated since trading for Marshawn Lynch who has sparked an otherwise stagnant Seattle ground game. He could roll against Oakland's 28th ranked rush defense.
Why Raiders cover: The Seahawks are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings in Oakland.
Total (41.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Pittsburgh Steelers at New Orleans Saints (+1)
Why Steelers cover: The Saints are still hampered by multiple injuries to their secondary and backfield.
Why Saints cover: Pittsburgh's feared defense took a major blow when defensive end Aaron Smith was lost indefinitely with a torn triceps. With Brett Keisel and linebacker LaMarr Woodley also banged up, New Orleans could move the ball downfield with ease.
Total (43.5): Over is 5-2 in the Steelers' last seven road games and 18-8-1 in the Saints' last 27 home games.
Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
Why Texans cover: The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. They will get left tackle Duane Brown back from suspension. Indianapolis' passing game is sure to suffer with both Austin Collie and Dallas Clark out with injuries.
Why Colts cover: With DeMeco Ryans out for the season, Houston's NFL-worst defense will have to juggle their linebackers and will move Brian Cushing from the strong side to the middle.
Total (49.5): Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Indianapolis.
NFL Week 8 Games
Broncos (2-5) vs. 49ers (1-6) (@ London) - Two disappointing teams cross pond to showcase the NFL. Since starting last year 6-0, Broncos are now 4-13 in last 17 games- they were down 38-0 at home to Oakland last week, less than a minute into 2nd quarter. 49ers have 31 penalties for 292 yards in last three games; their only win came in rain against Raider team that just blitzed Denver. Teams split 12 series games, with average total in last six, 51.8. NFC West teams are 10-8 vs. spread in non-division games, 4-6 on road; AFC West teams are 9-12, 4-7 on road. Niners are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine games vs AFC teams, but 3-14-3 in last 20 games where spread was 3 or less points. Six of seven Denver games went over the total.
Jaguars (3-4) @ Cowboys (1-6) - Kitna gets first start since ’08 here, subbing for injured Romo, with untested McGee only backup as this is written. Cowboys are a trainwreck, losing last three games, allowing 33 ppg (11 TDs on 35 drives; they’re 0-3 at home and 0-4 SU when favored this year. Jaguars were outscored 72-23 in losing last two games; all four of their losses are by 22+ points- they allowed 26+ points in each of last six games. NFC East teams are 4-6 as non-divisional favorites; AFC south road dogs are 3-2 outside the division. Home side won three of four series games, with average total 42.3; Jags lost two of three visits here, with losses by 4-2 points. Over is 5-2 in Jacksonville games, 4-1 in last five Dallas games.
Redskins (4-3) @ Lions (1-5) - Washington’s last three games were all decided by 3 points; only one of their games this year was decided by more than 6 points- underdogs are 5-1-1 in Redskin games this year, with dog winning SU in all three Washington road games. Detroit was outscored 51-17 in losing its two post-bye games under Schwartz; they’re 5-1 vs spread in ’10, 1-0 as favorite, crushing Rams 44-6, same Ram team that beat the Redskins. Detroit is 3-4 in last seven series games, after losing previous 22 games to Redskins; Skins are 2-3 in last five visits here, as home side won 10 of last 12 series games. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Four of last five Detroit games went over total; three of last four Redskin games stayed under.
Packers (4-3) @ Jets (5-1) - Well-rested Jets won five games in row before bye, scoring 30 ppg (16 TDs, 12 FGs on 57 drives); now they face Packer squad whose last four games were all decided by 4 or less points, and are coming off emotional primetime home game vs rival Vikings. All three Green Bay losses this year are by 3 points. Pack allowed 150-196 rushing yards in last two games, good news for Jets, who run ball for average of 150.7 yards/game. Rodgers wasn’t sacked by Vikings, after he’d been sacked nine times in previous two games. Jets are 8-2 in series, winning last two 42-17/38-10- they won all four games played here by 25-2-3-25 points. NFC North underdogs are 4-2-1 vs spread outside the division. Last five Jet games went over the total.
Panthers (1-5) @ Rams (3-4) - Rams are 3-0 if they average more than 5.0 yards/pass attempt, 0-4 if they don’t; four of six Panther opponents averaged over 5.0 ypa. St Louis is favored for first time since Week 13 in ’07; they’ve won last three home games (Redskins-Seahawks-Chargers), holding those teams to 9-44 on 3rd down, but have been unproductive (too conservative) in second half of last three games, outscored 46-3. Carolina got first win last week with Moore back at QB; they’re 0-2 on road, losing 31-18 at Giants (+7), 16-14 at Saints (+13). Panthers are even in turnovers last three games, after being -10 in first three- they’ve been outscored 61-27 in first half of last five games. Under is 5-2 in Ram games this year, 4-1 in last five Carolina games.
Dolphins (3-3) @ Bengals (2-4) - Miami is 3-0 on road ( Vikings-Packers-Bills), 0-3 at home (Jets-Pats-Steelers); four of their six games were decided by five or less points, with last two decided by total of 4 points (dogs covered their last five games). Bengals lost last three games, allowing 28.7 ppg (nine TD’s on 32 drives); since 2007, they’re 3-7 as favorite of 3 or less points. Miami is 11-7 vs spread in last 18 games where spread was 3 or less points. In last two games, Fish have only one TD on five red zone drives. Cincy won last two series meetings, after losing 13 of previous 16; their last loss to Miami was 10 years ago. Last three Cincinnati games and three of last four Miami games all went over the total.
Bills (0-6) @ Chiefs (4-2) - Buffalo led 24-10 in 1st half, outgained Ravens 506-364 last week, but came up empty after turning ball over in OT for 4th time in game; they’re 2-1 as road dog this year (9-6 since 2008), losing away games 34-7 (+13) in Green Bay, 38-30 (+14) in Foxboro, 37-34 in OT (+13)in Baltimore. In last two road games, Bills have six TD’s, five FG’s on 21 drives, which ain’t bad. Home team won 10 of last 13 series games, with Buffalo winning last three, taking 54-31/16-10 decisions the last two years. Chiefs are 3-0 at home, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TD’s on 34 drives); they covered as home favorite last week, after being 0-6-1 as HF since start of ’07 season. Last four Buffalo games and three of last four Chief games went over the total.
Titans (5-2) @ Chargers (2-5) - Resourceful Tennessee won last three games, scoring 34-30-37 points, scoring last 27 points vs Philly last week (won 37-19), even with backup QB Collins playing whole game; they’ve had 2+ takeaways in each of their five wins, one in each loss. Chargers are nothing if not self-destructive, turning ball over 17 times in last six games (-8 in last three). Bolts lost last three games, allowing 26 ppg. Titans are 3-0 on road with wins at Giants-Dallas-Jags. San Diego has won last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 11+ points. Titans lost last four visits here by average score of 28-12. Chargers are 9-14-1 in last 24 games as single digit fave. Three of last four Tennessee games went over the total.
Buccaneers (4-2) @ Cardinals (3-3) - Home team won last four series games, with Bucs losing last two visits here, 13-9/12-7; average total in last seven series games is 24.6 (19.5 in last four played here). Tampa Bay allowed 38-31 points in its two losses; they were down 17-3 at half last week, rallied at home to beat Rams- they’re 2-0 on road, beating Panthers (20-7, +3), Bengals (24-21, +7). Bucs gave up average of 180.8 rushing yards/game in last four games, so Beanie Wells could have big day, taking heat off whichever overmatched QB Redbirds use. Arizona had four takeaways in two of its three wins (Oakland missed chip shot FG for win at gun of other win). Bucs were outscored 72-19 in first half of their last four games. Four of last five Arizona games went over.
Seahawks (4-2) @ Raiders (3-4) - You can tell early with Seattle; they were outscored 27-3 in first half of their two losses, outscored other foes 48-19 before halftime. 3rd down defense has also been a key; their foes were 21-36 on 3rd down in Seattle’s two losses, 9-53 in their four wins. Oakland is 18-44 (40.9%) on 3rd down in their three home games. Raiders led 38-0 in first minute of 2nd quarter last week in Denver, they’re 2-1 at home, failing to cover only try as favorite (0-11 as home favorite since Week 7 in ’05). Home side won last nine series games in what used to be division rivalry; Seattle lost last five visits here by average of 16 points. Seattle scored 22+ points in its four wins, allowing four TD’s on 48 drives, 31-20 in its losses.
Vikings (2-4) @ Patriots (5-1) - Favre has two breaks in ankle, unproductive Jackson would get start at QB for Vikings if #4 can’t go, in what is Moss’ return to Foxboro, after he talked his way out of town. Patriots won last four games, scoring 31.3 ppg- they’re 3-0 at home (1-1-1 as home fave), scoring average of 33 ppg (10 TD’s, five FG on 31 drives. Vikings have 8 TD’s on 32 drives in last three games (had 5 of 33 in first three), but they don’t have sack in last two games (foes 15-28 on 3rd down). Home team won six of eight series games, with Vikings 2-4 in six visits here. AFC East teams are 8-3-1 vs spread in non-division games (2-2-1 as home favorite); NFC North teams are 4-2-1 as an underdog in non-divisional games. Last three Minnesota games went over the total.
Steelers (5-1) @ Saints (4-3) - Super Bowl champs allowed 27-30-30 points in three losses, 22 or less in four wins; offense has coughed ball up 11 times in the losses, with four of the 11 being run back for TD’s (they’ve had 3 turnovers in four wins). Saints expected to get Bush back for this, making offense more diverse, but Steelers allowing just 63.8 rushing yards/game this season. This is first of only three Steeler games on carpet this year. Pitt is 14-8 vs spread in last 22 games vs NFC teams. Saints were +5 in turnovers in first two games, are -10 since, and have only one INT in last five games. Four of last six games in infrequently-played series were decided by 4 or less points, with average total in last three, 60.3. Three of last four Steeler games went over the total.
Texans (4-2) @ Colts (4-2) - First rematch of season has Indy trying to avenge 34-24 loss in Week 1, just Texans’ second win in 17 series games; Houston is 0-8 here, losing 33-27/20-17 in last two visits. Houston had 257 rushing yards in opener, converting 6-11 on 3rd down as they scored four TD’s on nine drives. Both teams had bye last week; Texans are 1-4 in last five post-bye games, Colts won/covered their last five, but season-ending injury to TE Clark (wrist) will hamper Indy aerial attack, which had 419 yards in opener. Home favorites in divisional games are just 4-13 vs spread this season. Indy is 2-0 as home favorite this year (won 38-14/19-9 vs. two first-place teams). Texans are 2-0 on road, winning at Washington/Oakland. Average total in Texans’ last seven visits here is 53.9.
Over last six weeks, underdogs are 52-34 (60.5%) against the spread.
Over is 53-35 (60.2%) over the same time period
Total Talk - Week 8
By Chris David
Week 7 Recap
Did you know that last week was the highest per game scoring average (52.6) in the NFL since 1983? Sure enough, the ‘over’ went 10-4 last week and a lot of those outcomes were pretty easy. On the season the ‘over’ now stands at 57-45-2 (55%) and you wonder if the offenses are that good or are the defensive units that bad? It’s been a wacky season as far as side betting goes and the same can be said about totals too. Seriously, who would’ve thought Oakland would put up a 59 spot? As opposed to four teams on bye this week, we’ll have six clubs (Atlanta, Chicago, Cleveland, N.Y. Giants, Philadelphia, Baltimore) getting a day off so that’s one less game to wager on.
Bad Beats
Philadelphia at Tennessee: Thanks to Kenny Britt and a defensive touchdown, the Titans put up 27 unanswered points in the fourth quarter. The Eagles did lead 19-3, but Tennessee won 37-19. Bettors with the Tennessee-Over parlay weren’t expecting that winner, right?
Cleveland at New Orleans: It was 20-3 entering the fourth quarter, with the Browns leading too. Then we had a 24-point explosion, with Drew Brees adding a meaningless seven points on the board for the Saints late in the game. And 17 of Cleveland’s points came from defensive touchdowns and a great fake punt play that set up a short field goal.
San Francisco at Carolina: It was a low number (36.5), and the game was tied 13-13 in the fourth. However, two big plays (another pick six score) by each team knotted the game at 20 before Carolina got its first win (23-20) on a John Kasey field goal.
Home and Away Tendencies
As we near the midway point of the season, gamblers can start to see trends develop with clubs at home and on the road. Here are a few to digest for this weekend.
Miami at Cincinnati: The Dolphins have seen all three of their road contest go ‘under.’
Dallas vs. Jacksonville: All three of the Cowboys home games have gone ‘over’ the number, plus the Jaguars have given up 38, 26 and 42 in their three road affairs, all resulting in ‘over’ tickets too.
Detroit vs. Washington: The Lions have only played twice at Ford Field this year, but they put up 32 and 44 in those games. The ‘over’ cashed in both.
Arizona vs. Tampa Bay: The ‘over’ has gone 2-0 in the Cardinals two home contest
St. Louis vs. Carolina: Rams coach Steve Spagnuolo is known for his defensive approach and it’s shown at home. St. Louis has surrendered 16, 3 and 17 at home this season, all three were wins and all three ‘under’ tickets too.
Lookin’ at London
Why the NFL heads overseas is always debatable but they do and this year’s matchup between the Broncos (2-5) and 49ers (1-6) is one the league offices are probably regretting right about now. You can still bet on it and bet on the total too. This will be the fourth installment from London’s Wembley Stadium and two of the first three encounters went ‘under’ the number.
2007 - New York Giants 13 Miami 10 (Under 48)
2008 - New Orleans 37 San Diego 32 (Over 45.5)
2009 - New England 35 Tampa Bay 7 (Under 45)
The total between San Francisco and Denver is hovering around 42 points and you can make arguments both for the ‘over’ or the ‘under.’ The Broncos’ defense was embarrassed last week to Oakland but they’re facing a San Francisco attack that has trouble scoring. Total bettors following Denver this season and last are aware that 11 of the last 12 have been ‘over’ winners.
Under the Lights
Finally, the MNF affair last week was a good old fashioned shootout as the Giants defeated the Cowboys 41-35 on the road. New York led 24-20 at the break, helping the first-half ‘over’ cash for the first time all season in the primetime slot. On the season, the total stands at 4-4 after eight contests.
We have all the possibilities for another shootout this week, with Houston and Indianapolis squaring off for the second time this season. The Texans snapped a six-game losing streak to the Colts in Week 1 when it posted an emphatic 34-24 victory at home. What was even more impressive is that Houston put up those numbers with its ground attack. Running back Arian Foster (231 yards, 3 TDs) led the charge against Indy most would expect to see him get plenty of touches again this week, which could make the clock tick, tick and tick more. Indianapolis has the potential to light up anybody but the squad has been decimated by injuries on the offensive side of the ball. Will that matter in this primetime spot.
The combined 58 points in the Week 1 affair easily jumped the closing number of 47 ½ and it should be noted that nine of the last 10 head-to-head meetings have gone ‘over’ as well.
Monday’s number is hovering around 50 and playing the ‘under’ in high totals of this nature have been solid bets in the past. But keep in mind that both the Texans (4-2) and Colts (4-2) have been solid ‘over’ wagers to gamblers this season as well.
Fearless Predictions
After a 1-1 week, the Best Bets (1-3) dropped us deeper into the red. And after watching the Raiders (see above) explode, my Three-Team Teaser (1-1) wouldn’t have covered with an extra 30 points. On the season, the deficit is growing and up to $230. Let’s try this again folks…gulp.
Best Over: Vikings-Patriots 44
Best Under: Bills-Chiefs 46
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Vikings-Patriots 35
Under Panthers-Rams 46
Under Bills-Chiefs 55
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Steelers at Saints: What Bettors Need to Know
In a city in which the hangover has become part of its lore, the local pro football team is enduring a head-splitting one.
The defending champion Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints will be looking to shake off its season-long malaise when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night at the Louisiana Superdome.
WAKE UP CALL
A stunning home loss (30-17) to the Cleveland Browns as 13-point faves last week, coming off a wretched performance two weeks earlier in a 30-20 defeat at Arizona, have ratcheted up the "what's wrong" questions with the Saints (4-3).
Many observers are attributing New Orleans' struggles to a Super Bowl hangover, a notion that gains added relevance with the Steelers coming to town.
Pittsburgh won Super Bowl titles following the 2005 and 2008 seasons, and on both occasions failed to land a spot in the playoffs the following year.
That's the path the Saints are currently stumbling down - and a visit by the Steelers doesn't bode well for a reversal of the home team’s fortunes.
“We knew that this journey was not going to be easy going through this season, and we knew that we would have peaks and valleys," Saints quarterback Drew Brees told ESPN.com. “We just happen to be in one of those valleys. It feels like we’ve been in it for a while and we all want to get out of it."
BACK ON TOP
Pittsburgh (5-1) sits atop the AFC North and is tied with the New England Patriots for the best record in football. That the Steelers have started off so well with quarterback Ben Roethlisberger sitting out the first four games due to a league-mandated suspension speaks volumes to their level of play.
Defense again is in vogue in the Steel City, with Pittsburgh allowing an NFL-low 82 points through six games.
Having Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu healthy has been an enormous factor for the defense, which lost defensive end Aaron Smith for an indefinite period with a torn triceps suffered in last week's 23-22 win in Miami.
The one positive the Saints can glean from facing the Steelers is that their defense is especially stingy against the run, allowing a league-low 63.7 yards per game.
New Orleans’ rushing attack has been a non-factor for much of the season, with injuries to running backs Pierre Thomas and Reggie Bush playing major factors.
COLD BREES
Saints quarterback Drew Brees is still piling up numbers – he’s third in the league with 2,029 yards and has tossed an NFL-high 14 touchdowns – but he’s been intercepted 10 times already, one short of his entire season total from 2009.
Brees went to the air 56 times and was picked off four times in last week’s stunning loss to Cleveland. Two of those interceptions were brought back for touchdowns by Browns linebacker David Bowens.
The reigning Super Bowl MVP needs to get untracked against a Pittsburgh defense that is vulnerable through the air, ranking 24th in the league by allowing an average of 235.7 yards per game.
ALL ABOUT THE BENJAMINS
Brees’ counterpart looks like he hasn’t missed a snap this season. Roethlisberger has thrown for 559 yards with five touchdowns and one interception in his first two games.
The Steelers got a break last week when Roethlisberger fumbled into the end zone late in the game vs. the Dolphins. The play, originally ruled a touchdown, was overturned on replay but officials could not decipher who recovered the ball.
Pittsburgh maintained possession and Jeff Reed kicked a go-ahead field goal with 2:26 remaining to keep the Steelers unbeaten on the road at 3-0.
Despite some questionable decisions under pressure with the ball, Roethlisberger is the league's best quarterback when blitzed, according to ESPN's Stats and Information. Big Ben owns a 140.1 passer rating when defenses send an extra attacker his way, something Saints defensive coordinator Gregg Williams likes to do often.
INJURIES
The Steelers defense will be missing its two starting defensive ends against the Saints. Aaron Smith (triceps) and Brett Keisel (hamstring) are both intregal parts to Pittsburgh's dominating run defense and will be missed.
For the Saints Reggie Bush will not return from his fibula injury this week. Tailback Pierre Thomas also remains on the shelf.
Cornerback Jabari Greer (shoulder) is doubtful and co-starter Tracy Porter (knee) is questionable.
TRENDS
The Steelers are 6-0 against the spread in their last six games as road underdogs.
The Saints are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 games coming off a straight up loss.
New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
The over is 5-2 in Pittsburgh's last seven road games.