NFL Week 4
Raiders (1-2) @ Texans (1-2)-- Road team won Texans' first three games, as Houston lost both home tilts, 24-7/31-24, after losing goal-line fumble late in Jaguar loss- they struggle to stop the run, allowing 190-240-184 yards in first three games. Foes converted 50% on third down in first three games. Russell is horrible as Oakland's QB, completing 19 of 45 passes for just 141 yards the last two games. Raiders covered six of last nine as road underdog- they're 9-16 vs spread as non-division road dog since 2003. Texans won two of last three against the Raiders, with all three of those games played in Oakland.
Titans (0-3) @ Jaguars (1-2)-- Third road game in four weeks for a Tennessee squad that is 0-3 and desperate; they've outrushed foes 353-182, usually good indicator of success, but they turned ball over twice in kicking game last week, and have eight turnovers in three games (-3). Titans are also just 13-38 on third down, which contributes to them losing field position battle by 11-8-14 yards in three losses. Jags don't have much of home field edge- they're the only NFL team that won't sell out any of their home games. Road team is 6-4 in last ten series games. Titans 3-2 in last five visits here, winning last two, 13-10/24-14.
Ravens (3-0) @ Patriots (2-1)-- Red-hot Baltimore scored 38-31-34 points in first three wins, scoring 13 TDs on 32 drives; they've picked off six passes in last two games, have outrushed opponents 470-153, but they've played both Chiefs, Browns, two awful teams. Patriots ran ball for 168 yards vs Atlanta last week; they only have three takeaways (+1) and are really struggling in the red zone, with one TD, seven FGs on last RZ eight drives. They've converted 18 of 34 on 3rd down in their two wins, 5-15 in their loss. Pats are 14-18-1 in last 33 games as home favorite. Ravens covered six of last eight as underdogs.
Bengals (2-1) @ Browns (0-3)-- Can Bengals back up huge win vs Pitt with a win vs hapless Browns, who have one TD on 32 drives this year, outrushed 553-214 with a minus-7 turnover ratio? Cincy is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning three of last four here- they shut Browns out in last two wins here, lost 51-45 here in '07. Palmer makes huge difference for Bengals; they're 12-26 on 3rd down last two weeks, converted two 4th down plays on winning drive vs Steelers. Browns failed to cover last seven tries as single digit dog. Bengals are 1-5 as road favorite last two years; they're in a Steelers/Ravens sandwich.
Giants (3-0) @ Chiefs (0-3)-- Big Blue had glorified scrimmage in easy win at Tampa last week, have another one here, against KC club that is 7-36 on third down this year, losing first three games by 14-3-20 points. Upsets in games like this need turnovers by favorite- KC has only two takeaways so far in '09, Giants have no giveaways last two weeks. Chiefs are just 4-7 as home dog last two years; Giants are 12-4 in last 16 tries as road favorite, 9-3 in non-division games. Chiefs lost last seven at home- they're 4-10 in last 14 as non-divisional home dog. Third game in row on road for Big Blue, a historic NFL soft spot.
Lions (1-2) @ Bears (2-1)-- Detroit ended 19-game skid last week; they're 6-2 vs spread in last eight tries as road dog, but lost six of last eight series games, dropping three of last four here, losing by 32-27-4 points. Underdog covered four of last five series games here. Bears won last two games but they haven't run ball well this year (86-43-85 yards)- they haven't led at the half yet, but outscored foes 41-21 in second half. Since 2001, Lions are 7-19-2 vs spread in game after a win. Former Lion head coach Marinelli is an assistant with Bears. Detroit is 13-5 as a double digit dog, but 0-2 this year, losing by 18-14 points.
Bucs (0-3) @ Redskins (1-2)-- Washington lost to Lions last week after shaky 9-7 win vs Rams week before, so natives are restless, but Tampa is really bad, losing first three games by 13-13-24 points. Bucs were outrushed 244-85 last two weeks and now 2nd-year QB Johnson gets first NFL start in only second game action. Bucs are just 9-38 on 3rd down. Redskins are 5-11-1 as favorite at home since '06; they've been outscored 37-13 in first half, and have no TDs in first half of last two contests. Under is 12-2-1 in last fifteen Redskin games. Home side won four of last five series games, all decided by 7 or less points.
Seahawks (1-2) @ Colts (3-0)-- Indy off pair of primetime road wins, are just 2-6 in last eight games as home favorite, winning 14-12 in only '09 home game. Colts has big Monday night game at divisional rival Tennessee next week; they are 4-5 in last nine games as double digit fave, but 8-6 as non-divisional home fave. Seattle is live if Hasselbeck goes, off-limits if Wallace is QB- they're 8-14 as road dog since '04, 6-14-2 in last 22 games as non-divisional road dog. Bad news for Colts is pass rushing star Freeney is out. Manning is on top of game, averaging 12.3/10.8 ypp last two weeks; they're better without Harrison????
Jets (3-0) @ Saints (3-0)-- Two hot teams meet here; Jets have yet to give up more than 4.6 ypp this year, while Saints averaged 10.5/8.0/5.0 in first three games, while also running ball for 157-133-222 yards, so they're balanced more than previous years. NO won its first three games by 18-26-20 points- they've covered five of last six as home fave, but are just 6-10 as non-divisional home fave. Jets are 13-6 as road dog since '06; they are 9-14-1 vs the spread vs NFC teams since '03. Saints' WR Colston played college ball at Hofstra, where Jets used to train, but Jets didn't draft him. Over is 5-2 in last seven Saints' games.
Bills (1-2) @ Dolphins (0-3)-- Pennington is out for year, Henne gets his first NFL start vs Buffalo team that is 7-3 in last ten series games, but lost twice to Miami LY (25-16/16-3). Dolphins ran ball for 239-149 yards last two games, but haven't averaged 5.0 ypp yet- they have only one takeaway this year (-6). Saints ran ball down Buffalo's throat in 4th quarter last week (222 yards for game) would expect to see lot of Brown/Wildcat here. Buffalo is 6-3 as a road favorite since '04. Miami is 8-13 as home dog. Owens didn't catch pass in a game last week for first time in 12 years, expect Bills to get him involved early.
Rams (0-3) @ 49ers (2-1)-- Niners had brutal loss in Metrodome last week as Favre pulled game out with :02 left, but SF is much-improved team that is 6-2 in last eight series games, with only one win by more than seven points. Rams lost best WR Robinson last week, but got upgrade at QB when Bulger hurt his shoulder and Boller came in; they've been outscored 30-3 in second half, when defense gets worn down from being behind so much. Rams are 6-11 vs spread in last 17 games as road dog, 0-6 in last six division road games. Gore is out for 49ers, which hurts running game; they've only turned ball over twice in 2009.
Cowboys (2-1) @ Broncos (3-0)-- Road game on short work week for Dallas team missing two best RBs; despite that, Cowboys ran for 251-212 yards in last two games. Denver is off quickly, giving up 5.5 ppg (one TD/31 drives); after getting lucky in opener at Cincinnati, they crushed woeful teams the last two weeks, running ball for 401 yards. Cowboys are 10-7-1 as home favorite since '06, covering six of last seven as favorite of three points or less. Broncos are 3-1 as home dog this decade, 4-6 as dog of three or less points. Defending Romo this week is huge step up, after seeing Quinn/Russell in last two games.
Chargers (2-1) @ Steelers (1-2)-- Pitt not running ball as well this season (84.3 ypg this year); they lost last two games by FG each, failing to stop Bengals on pair of 4th down plays on final drive last week. Chargers are throwing it well with LY out (6.2/9.0/8.2 ypp) but they've also given up 148-130-149 yards on ground, so interesting to see if Pitt can keep ball away from Rivers. Steelers are 11-7 as home fave since '06, 9-6 in non-division games- they beat Bolts twice LY, 11-10/35-24. Chargers are 15-4-1 vs spread in last 20 games as a road dog, but lost 12 of last 14 to Steelers, with both wins coming in playoff games.
Monday, October 6
Packers (2-1) @ Vikings (3-0)-- Favre plays first game against team that made him famous; rivals split last eight series games, with two LY decided by total of six points. Vikings are 8-10 in last 18 games as home favorite, pulling out a dramatic win on last play last week, overcoming getting FG blocked for a TD. Pack is already +8 in turnovers, picking off seven passes- they allowed 151-149 yards on ground last two games, good news for Peterson, who was held under 100 last week. Vikes scored 34-27-27 points in first three games, taking all three games, despite trailing all three at halftime. Rodgers has been sacked 12 times in three games, not good.
NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 4
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-10.5)
Why Lions cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Underdog is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Detroit should have momentum from coming off its first win in 19 games.
Why Bears cover: They’ve won six of last eight meetings. Jay Cutler (483 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) has been much better since his miserable debut.
Total (38.5): Over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+4.5)
Why Bengals cover: They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six games. They’ve won seven of last nine meetings. Browns will start Derek Anderson who threw three picks after replacing the ineffective Brady Quinn last week. Cleveland's QB situation is a major weakness. Cedric Benson has really carried the running game for Cincy.
Why Browns cover: Underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Braylon Edwards has five receiving touchdowns in his last five games against the Bengals.
Total (38.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 8-2 in the last 10 dates in Cleveland.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5)
Why Raiders cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five road games. They’ve held Matt Schaub to 255 yards passing, zero TDs and one interception in two games against him. Underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.
Why Texans cover: They’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games. They’ve won three of last four meetings. With four fumbles in only 41 carries, running back Darren McFadden is prone to turning over the ball. Oakland is averaging a pathetic 12 points per game.
Total (41.5): Under is 8-3-1 in Raiders' last 12 games.
Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5)
Why Seahawks cover: They’ve won three of last four meetings. Seneca Wallace (261 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) played well last week against a tough Bears defense and will get the nod again. Colts are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 home games. Colts won't have defensive end Dwight Freeney who is out with a quad injury.
Why Colts cover: Finally got their ground game rolling last week and get to face a Seahawks team that is allowing almost 140 rushing yards per game. Peyton Manning is making up for missing Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez by spreading the ball around and keeping defenses on their toes.
Total (44): Under is 8-3-1 in Seahawks' last 12 games and 4-1 in Colts' last five games.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3)
Why Titans cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings in Jacksonville. NFL's second-ranked rush defense could limit Maurice Jones-Drew and make David Garrard shoulder the offensive load.
Why Jaguars cover: Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. Kerry Collins (69.9 rating) has struggled so far this season. With 187 yards receiving in the last two games, Mike Sims-Walker has become Garrard's go to guy.
Total (41): Under is 9-4 in the last 13 meetings in Jacksonville.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (+9.5)
Why Giants cover: They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. They’ve won six of last seven meetings. Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games. Chiefs' top receiving threat Dwayne Bowe not expected to play.
Why Chiefs cover: Held Eli Manning to 186 yards with one touchdown and one interception in their last meeting. New York is allowing an astounding 6.1 yards per rush. Look for a heavy dose of Larry Johnson.
Total (42.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at New England Patriots (-1)
Why Ravens cover: They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six road games and 18-5 ATS in their last 23 games overall. Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. Tom Brady has only completed 49 percent of his passes with one interception in two games against Baltimore.
Why Patriots cover: They’ve won all four previous meetings. AFC's third ranked defense will be first real test for second year QB Joe Flacco, who could struggle for the first time this season.
Total (44): Over is 4-1 in Patriots' last five home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (-7.5)
Why Buccaneers cover: They’ve won past three meetings. Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games and 1-7-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Skins look like they have given up already and coach Jim Zorn could be fired if they lose.
Why Redskins cover: Buccaneers are 0-5 ATS in the last five games. Underachieving defense could redeem itself against second year QB Josh Johnson, who is making his first NFL start.
Total (37.5): Home team is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+1)
Why Bills cover: They’re 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. They’ve won four of past six meetings. Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Bills get Marshawn Lynch back from suspension to complement super-sub Fred Jackson. Unproven Chad Henne will start at QB for Miami after Chad Pennington was lost for the season last week.
Why Dolphins cover: Terrell Owens has been a non-factor for Buffalo this season, and looks to be disgruntled after last week's poor offensive showing. Bills' secondary to be without both Leodis McKelvin and Donte Whitner, who are injured.
Total (36.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 5-2 in the last seven trips to Miami.
New York Jets at New Orleans Saints (-6.5)
Why Jets cover: They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog. Rex Ryan's Jets have the league's third ranked defense and could smother the Saints' high-flying offense. Mark Sanchez could pick apart New Orleans' suspect pass defense.
Why Saints cover: They’re 5-1 ATS in their last six home games and 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. They’ve won four of past six meetings. Drew Brees and the Saints' explosive passing game have really opened up the ground game, evidenced by a whopping 170 yards per game average.
Total (46): Over is 12-1-1 in Saints' last 14 home games.
Dallas Cowboys at Denver Broncos (+3)
Why Cowboys cover: Broncos are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games. League's third best offense will pose a challenge for a Denver defense that has yet to face a formidable offensive team.
Why Broncos cover: Have won past three meetings. Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games. Dallas could be without both Marion Barber and Felix Jones, which means Tashard Choice would handle the bulk of the rushing duties.
Total (42.5): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
Why Rams cover: Underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings. With offensive catalyst Frank Gore out, unproven rookie Glen Coffee will be the feature back for San Fran. Niners could be vulnerable coming of a game where they lost their top offensive player to injury.
Why 49ers cover: Have won six of past eight meetings. Rams are 2-7 ATS in their last nine meetings and 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco. St. Louis can't figure out how to score and is averaging only eight points per game.
Total (37.5): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
Why Chargers cover: Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Willie Parker is dealing with a turf toe injury. Philip Rivers (991 pass yards) has been making up for an anemic running attack.
Why Steelers cover: Have won six of past seven meetings. Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Pittsburgh. Darren Sproles (2.4 average) has struggled to replace the injured LaDainian Tomlinson.
Total (42): Over is 6-2 in Chargers' last eight games and 46-20-2 in Steelers' last 68 home games.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Twins (-3)
Why Packers cover: They’re 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Minnesota. Underdog is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 meetings. Road team is 11-3 ATS in the last 14 matchups. Could get starting OT Chad Clifton back from injury.
Why Vikings cover: Brett Favre will be pumped up to face his old team for the first time since leaving Green Bay. Adrian Peterson could destroy the Pack's 23rd-ranked rush defense. In two games against Minnesota, Aaron Rodgers has only passed for 337 yards with one TD and one interception.
Total (46): Over is 12-5-1 in the last 18 meetings and 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings in Minnesota.
Total Talk - Week 4
By Chris David
Week 3 Recap
After three weeks of action and 48 games being played, the totals have gone 24-24. The ‘under’ went 9-7 last week after the ‘over’ posted a 9-7 mark in Week 2. Investigating further, it seems like the oddsmakers have been over and underestimating the numbers through the first three weeks. In Week 3, six games closed with a total of 45 points or more. The ‘under’ went 5-1 in those contests. Meanwhile, seven games had a posted number of 40 or less and the ‘over’ cashed in five of them.
With four teams on bye this weekend and two less games on the docket, the numbers have been tempered a bit. Only two out of 14 tilts have a posted total of 45 or more but none are over 46. And five are less than 40, with none lower than 37. According to the VegasInsider.com STATS database, 28.6% of the total points scored in the NFL over the last four years (2005-2008) land between 37 and 45 points. Eight out of 48 or 16% of the games this year have fallen into that range, so you can see why the oddsmakers use the two numbers (37-45) as starting points.
Finding a Pattern
Three weeks isn’t the biggest sample size to define teams as either an ‘over’ or an ‘under’ squad and that’s evidenced in the ATS Rankings. Philadelphia is the only club to see the ‘over’ go 3-0 in all of its games and Denver is the lone squad to see the ‘under’ boast a 3-0 mark. The remaining 30 are either 1-2 or 2-1 in either direction. It might be better suited to wait another three games and the you should be able to identify what teams are accustomed to lighting up the scoreboard and which don’t, and hopefully before the oddsmakers do.
Offense or Defense
It’s known that a good defense will always beat a good offense any day of the week. With that being said, two non-conference games this week pit explosive attacks against solid defensive units. Before we delve into each matchup, gamblers should make a note that the 4:00 (ET) games or what I like to call the “chase” games haven’t helped the public this season. After 12 games, the ‘under’ has produced an 8-4 (67%) record. We mention that because both contests below will played in the second session on Sunday.
N.Y. Jets at New Orleans (45)
New Jets’ head coach Rex Ryan and his brash attitude have taken New York by storm and a large part of his success is dependent on an aggressive defense. The unit is ranked third in total yards (256) and has only given up two touchdowns in three games, both coming in last week’s 24-17 victory over Tennessee. N.Y. will find out how good the defense is this week against New Orleans and its league-best offense (438 YPG, 40 PPG). Quarterback Drew Brees (69.1 %, 841 yards, 9 TDs) is the leader of the attack but did you know the Saints have run (102 rushes) the ball more than they’ve tossed it (97 attempts)?
Ryan has to know his defense won’t be able to stymie New Orleans completely. Rather, he’s going to try to use his offense to keep the defense on the sides, which means run, run and run some more. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez has been catching a lot of press in the Big Apple but his 46.6 passer rating is the fourth lowest in the league. For those that believe New Orleans is an offensive-only squad, think again. The Saints’ defense has surrendered five touchdowns in three games, plus the group has been great on third downs (27.3%). The ‘over’ has gone 7-1-1 in the last nine games at the Superdome.
Dallas at Denver (42.5)
The Broncos boast the best defense in the league when it comes to total yards (214) and points (5.3), plus they’re tied for first in the league with 10 sacks. Head coach Josh McDaniel came to the Mile High City with a pedigree as an offensive coordinator with New England. So how is the unit so successful? When you play three teams that are ranked near the bottom of the league in total offense in Cincinnati (24), Cleveland (32) and Oakland (31), you better have the best unit in the league. It’s put up or shut up time on Sunday and even though the Broncos’ confidence is high, the Cowboys’ offense is the only unit that is averaging 190-plus YPG on the ground and through the air. Dallas is averaging 28.7 PPG, which is ranked fifth best in the NFL. The ‘over’ has gone 2-1 in their three games this year. The Cowboys and Broncos don’t meet annually, but the last five encounters between the two teams have gone ‘over.’
On the Road again!
It doesn’t happen often, not much at all but the Giants and Seahawks are the only two teams in the NFL this year that will have to endure three straight games on the road, with no break either.
New York will be finishing up its trip this Sunday when it visits Arrowhead Stadium for a battle against Kansas City. The Giants have looked sharp so far, spoiling the Cowboys opener 33-31 in Week 2 before dominating Tampa Bay 24-0 last Sunday.
The oddsmakers expect New York to return home unscathed, listing the G-Men as nine-point favorites. While researching this game with my VegasInsider.com colleague Kevin Rogers, he pointed out a solid total trend on teams playing three-straight on the road. It’s more geared toward the playoffs, but situations do arise in the regular season.
The last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the ‘over,’ including a perfect 5-0 mark last season.
In the five games last year, three were in the regular season and two in the playoffs:
Reg. Season - Baltimore 10 at N.Y. Giants 30: Over 39
Reg. Season - Houston 27 at Houston 30: Over 43
Reg. Season - Chicago 14 at Minnesota 34: Over 42
Playoffs - Philadelphia 25 at Arizona 32: Over 46.5
Playoffs - Baltimore 14 at Pittsburgh 23: Over 36
In case you’re wondering, we mentioned Seattle above and the final leg of its three-game road trip is on Nov. 29 at St. Louis. No system or trend is 100% guaranteed folks, but little tidbits like this will help your ‘capping down the road.
Monday Night Football
Finally, the bookmakers saw the ‘under’ cash on the primetime finale. The ‘over’ went 13-3-1 on Monday Night Football in 2008 and that carried over through the first three games this year with a perfect 3-0 run. After Dallas stifled Carolina 21-7 in Week 3, the ‘over’ stands at 3-1 under the lights.
In case you haven’t been watching ESPN this week, you should know by know that the MNF crew is heading to Minnesota for a NFC North battle between the Vikings and Packers. In the 2008 Week 1 opener on MNF from Lambeau Field, Green Bay held off Minnesota 24-19 and the combined 43 points slid ‘over’ the closing number of 37 ½. The second regular season meeting also went ‘over’ the total (44.5) as the Vikings edged the Packers 28-27 at home.
The numbers is hovering between 44 and 45 for this week and probably will jump with the public action. The Packers’ offense looked sharp last week in their 36-17 victory against St. Louis by posting seven scores (4 TDs) on 11 meaningful possessions. Minnesota is averaging 29.3 PPG, but the offense is only averaging 317.4 YPG. The Vikings have seen the ‘over’ go 2-1.
Fearless Predictions
After two weeks of tracking, the record stands at 2-2 (-$20) but my teasers (0-2, -$200) just can’t come through at all. Based on one-unit plays, we’re in the hole for $220 but the confidence is high as we approach Week 4. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!
Best Over – Seahawks-Colts (44)
This is a nice spot for Indianapolis to open up the offense (24 PPG, 408 YPG) against a ripe Seattle defense that looks good on paper (16 PPG, 314 YPG) due to its competition (Rams, 49ers, Bears). We’re aware that Seattle will be without QB Matt Hasselbeck, but backup Seneca Wallace is more than capable to move the chains. He did so last week, leading the Seahawks to five scores (4 FGs). And the team missed two chip shots too. The Bears’ defense isn’t great but the Colts’ unit will be without its best two players, Sanders and Freeney, and LB Gary Brackett is ‘questionable’ as well. The ‘over’ looks good but the team total on the Colts (27.5) looks even better. Play both and see you at the cashier!
Best Under – Rams-49ers (37.5)
The Packers moved the football up and down the field on the Rams last week for 36 points and we really don’t see the 49ers duplicating that performance, especially with RB Frank Gore expected to miss. Also ‘out’ for this week is St. Louis QB Marc Bulger, who will be replaced by Kyle Boller. I don’t expect him to get anything going against San Francisco’s defense, which is giving up 66.7 rushing yards per game and only 17.7 PPG. It also helps to know that five of the last six in this head-to-head battle has gone ‘under’ the number and fairly easily too.
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over 35 Colts-Seahawks
Under 46.5 Rams-49ers
Over 28 Buccaneers-Redskins
vegasinsider.com
Trend Setters - Week 4
By Kevin Rogers
As we look ahead to another week in the NFL, there are a number of solid trends to keep an eye on. With more scenarios unfolding three weeks into the season, not only will we give you trends on certain games, but also include situations with 3-0 and 0-3 teams.
First off, teams hosting 3-0 clubs the last five seasons are just 4-8 ATS, as the teams that qualify here are the Saints, Chiefs, and Patriots. Home teams that take on 0-3 clubs are 7-2 to the 'over' the last five seasons, as the Jaguars, Redskins, and 49ers qualify for this system. Away teams that travel to 3-0 clubs haven't fared well over the last five seasons, going 3-11 SU and 6-8 ATS. Teams that fall under this particular system are the Jets, Packers, and Seahawks.
Giants (-9, 42) at Chiefs - 1:00 PM EST
The Giants have looked strong out of the gate, starting 3-0, heading to 0-3 Kansas City. New York is laying plenty of points at Arrowhead, but that hasn't been a problem for the G-Men in the past. Since Tom Coughlin arrived in 2004, the Giants are 12-5 ATS as road favorites, while compiling a 29-14-1 ATS mark away from the Meadowlands.
This will be the third consecutive road contest for New York, following victories at Dallas and Tampa Bay. The last five seasons, teams playing their third straight road game are 19-8-2 to the 'over,' including a perfect 5-0 mark last season.
The Chiefs have been a horrible home play since 2007, going 4-12-1 ATS at Arrowhead. Despite all the personnel and coaching changes over the years, Kansas City has the cashed the 'over' in seven of the last nine home games against NFC opponents.
Lions at Bears (-10, 39) - 1:00 PM EST
The Bears have not been a profitable play under Lovie Smith when laying double-digits, going 1-6 ATS. The Lions have covered the last two meetings at Soldier Field, winning SU in 2007, while falling by four last season as 13-point underdogs.
Detroit is 10-3 ATS the last 13 games as double-digit 'dogs, including an 8-1 ATS mark if they are on the road. The lone loss came in Week 1 at New Orleans, losing 45-27 as two-touchdown underdogs.
Bengals (-5½, 38½) at Browns - 1:00 PM EST
The Browns continue to be the biggest circus in the league (even more than the Raiders) with all the changes at quarterback. Head coach Eric Mangini has decided to go with former Pro Bowler Derek Anderson at quarterback this week, replacing Brady Quinn after only two games. However, there is a fantastic trend that points to Cleveland this week.
The Browns are coming off a blowout loss at Baltimore, as home 'dogs off a road loss of at least 21 points are 26-13 ATS the last five seasons. If the home 'dog lost on the road by more than 28 points, the record improves to 14-5 ATS.
The Bengals are sky-high after victories over the Packers and Steelers as underdogs. Cincinnati is just 1-5 ATS the last two seasons as road 'chalk.' Even though Anderson has fallen hard following his Pro Bowl season of 2007, the Browns' QB threw for 328 yards and five touchdowns against Cincinnati in a 51-45 victory two seasons ago.
Packers at Vikings (-3½, 45½) - 8:30 PM EST (Monday)
The Brett Favre bowl happens on Monday night in Minneapolis, as the Hall of Fame quarterback takes on his former team for the first time. The Vikings come in at 3-0, while the Packers sit at 2-1, but Green Bay has been money in this spot.
Under Mike McCarthy, the Pack is 8-1 ATS on the road against division opponents, including a perfect 3-0 ATS mark at Minnesota. In fact, each of the last six meetings in Minnesota has been decided by less than seven points.
The Vikings are only 2-7-1 ATS the last two seasons off a home win, including an 0-5 ATS mark last season.
vegasinsider.com
Chargers head to Pitt
By AllStar.com
Quarterback: Philip Rivers continued to be a one man marching band with his performance last weekend against the Dolphins. While he won’t admit it, he has to be thrilled with the news Troy Polamalu will not play. Rivers continues to use all options, but his focal points are TE Antonio Gates, and Vincent Jackson. With LaDanian Tomlinson returning, Norv Turner will try to balance the offensive game plan.
Ben Roethlisberger has a nice completion ratio of 72%, but his 4 INT’s to 3TD’s are a concern. If Shawne Merriman is able to go, Big Ben will be under a steady rush all night. Chargers Safety Clinton Hart tells us the game plan is to keep Roethlisberger on the move in hopes of eliminating the deep ball. San Diego has not been effective covering the tight end, so Heath Miller should continue to see the ball thrown in his direction.
Running Back: While LaDanian Tomlinson may be the most popular player to ever wear the lightning bolt, there were plenty of questions about his decision to try and play this weekend. Tomlinson suffered a high ankle sprain in week 1, and with a bye next week, the thinking was (and is) he should sit out this game. HOWEVER, insiders insist this is LT’s last year in SD, and wonder if he is rushing back to showcase whatever skills he has left for the national audience. If he struggles, or re-injures the ankle, it will be seen as a selfish decision by Tomlinson. The return of starting RG Louis Vasquez should help.
Willie Parker is listed as doubtful with a toe injury, and Rashad Mendenhall has lost the confidence of his coaches, so Mewalde Moore with his 27 total yards rushing will be the main back for the Steelers. The champs average a meager 3.6 yards per carry, so it will be up to the guys that catch the ball to handle the heavy lifting.
Wide Receiver: With the absence of Polamalu, San Diego will show plenty of 3 and 4 wide sets to exploit one on one coverage. 6’5 Malcom Floyd continues to impress, and has made key catches. Vincent Jackson has emerged into a star, and Antonio Gates is healthy again. If Pittsburgh decides to blitz, Rivers will make the most of Polamalu’s absence by calling Gates number often.
With no running game to speak of, Hines Ward has been solid despite the 1-2 record. If Roethlisberger is given time in the pocket, we like the matchup of Santonio Holmes vs Antonio Cromartie. Cromartie seems to focus more on his twitter account then shutting down opposing Wide Receivers, and Holmes has the skills to make it a long night for Cromartie.
Defense: With pro bowl NT Jamal Williams out for the year, San Diego has struggled with run defense allowing an average of 4.4 yes per carry. That should improve this week due to the Steelers struggles running the ball. Shawne Merriman will be a game time decision. Inside Linebackers Stephen Cooper and Kevin Burnett have shown improvement each week, and Ron Rivera loves Burnett’s speed and toughness. Look for Burnett to shoot the gap in order to pressure Roethlisberger.
When we talked to people in Pittsburgh this week about the keys to the game, they surprised us. People within the Steelers organization feel strongly that Tyrone Carter can do the job in Polamalu’s absence.(We disagree, as proven by the 47 times we have mentioned his name) We have been told that the message given to the Steelers is pressure Rivers, and make a hobbled LaDanian Tomlinson beat you. The other key was for the Steelers to cut down on stupid penalties. Pittsburgh has Detroit and Cleveland next on the schedule, and believes a solid win against San Diego will help get them back on track.
Key Injuries:
Chargers:
LaDanian Tomlinson (ankle) PROBABLE, Shawne Merriman (groin) Game Time Decision, Luis Rivera (ankle) Probable
Pittsburgh:
Troy Polamalu/S-OUT (Knee)/ Willie Parker/RB-Doubtful (toe)
Betting Trends:
The Chargers are 14-5-3 in their last 22 as a road UNDERDOG
The Chargers are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 road games
The Steelers are -0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against the Chargers
The OVER is 6-2 in the Chargers last 8 games
The OVER is 14-5 in the Steelers last 19 against the AFC
Ravens look to stay unbeaten
By AllStar.com
Quarterbacks: Tom Brady has yet to look comfortable coming back from his knee injury a year ago. Scouts say he looks like he has lost confidence, and appears distracted. Brady showed signs of his old self last week against the Falcons connecting with Randy Moss 10 times. He will be under pressure from the Ravens, and will need to stand in the pocket if NE is going to have a chance. With his longest pass of the season only going for 36 yards, look for a lot of slant patterns called.
Joe Flacco continues to show no signs of a sophomore slump, with a strong QB rating of 101.5. He has shown good leadership skills, and has a healthy Todd Heap, and WR Derrick Mason as his top targets. It wouldn’t surprise us if Flacco spends a lot of time early handing the ball off, in order to set up the passing attack later on. With 4 Ravens in double digits in catches give credit to Flacco for being patient, and looking to his 2nd, and even 3rd options when needed.
Running backs: Laurence Maroney is listed as probable coming back from a thigh injury, but should be considered doubtful when it comes to his heart. Maroney continues to be a question mark in this league, and lacks the passion needed to be a big time back. Fred Taylor has carried the load so far for New England, but considering the Ravens D has not allowed a 100 yard rusher in 38 games, look for Old Man Fred to be limited at best.
For Baltimore, the three headed monster of Willis McGahee, Ray Rice, and fullback Le’ron McClain, has been cut back to two with Rice and McGahee getting the majority of the carries. McGahee has been solid with 5 TD’s in 3 games. He will continue to get first call in the red zone, with the hard charging Ray Rice eating up the clock.
Wide receivers: After dealing with back issues during the pre-season, Randy Moss had a bounce back game with 10 catches for 116 yards last week against the Falcons. With Wes Welker listed as questionable with a knee injury on Friday’s injury report, it will be up to Moss again on Sunday. While Moss has a respectable 26 catches, he has yet to see the end zone, and rumors will not go away that he is pouting, and could be back to his old ways if he doesn’t get a TD soon.
Derrick Mason shocked nobody when he announced his 3 week “retirement” was ending in late August, and nobody was happier then Joe Flacco. While Flacco has spread the ball around nicely, Mason continues to be his favorite target. New England has yet to record an INT through three games, so look for Mason, the (little too) flashy Kelly Washington, and Todd Heap to be busy.
Defense: If New England is going to make it 5 straight against the Ravens, it may fall on the massive shoulders of Defensive Tackle Vince Wilfork to lead the way. We expect Baltimore to try to establish the run early to control time of possession, and to take the pressure off of Flacco. New England’s new look defense has been impressive holding teams to under 17pts a game.
The Ravens fear no running back in the league, and that is not expected to change this week. With questions about Brady’s mobility, and ability to take a hit, new defensive coordinator Greg Mattison will turn all his weapons loose. Brady should expect many different looks, and a steady stream of blitzes from Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Jarrett Johnson.
KEY INJURIES:
Bal: None
NE: Wes Welker/WR-(knee) questionable
Betting Trends:
The Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last games against the AFC
The Ravens are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an UNDERDOG
The Patriots are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games
The OVER is 7-3 in the Ravens last 10 road games
The OVER is 4-1 in the Patriots last 5 home games
Oakland (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Houston (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Texans, who have already faltered twice at home, again take to the Reliant Stadium grass when they host the offensively challenged Raiders.
Houston went back-and-forth with winless Jacksonville on Sunday but managed just three points in the second half – on a third-quarter field goal – and lost 31-24 as a four-point home favorite. QB Matt Schaub (26 of 35, 300 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had his second straight solid start, but the Texans gave up 119 rushing yards and three TDs to RB Maurice Jones-Drew as the Jaguars racked up 184 yards on the ground.
Oakland got drubbed by Denver 23-3 as a one-point home pup Sunday, finishing with a paltry 137 total yards. QB JaMarcus Russell was dismal again, going 12-for-21 for just 61 yards while throwing two INTs, and the Raiders finished with just nine first downs. They also lost the turnover battle 3-1, had a 12½-minute deficit in time of possession and gave up 215 rushing yards.
Houston is 3-1 SU and ATS in four total meetings in this rivalry, though Oakland earned a 27-16 home upset as a seven-point ‘dog last December. The underdog has won and cashed in all four contests.
Despite the Texans’ 1-2 ATS start, they remain on pointspread runs of 7-3 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss and 4-1 after a non-cover, though they’ve gone just 1-8 ATS in their last nine October starts. The Raiders had a four-game ATS win streak halted last week versus Denver (all as an underdog) and are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games, but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 20-41-1 after a non-cover, 17-35-1 against losing teams and 8-18 in October.
The over for Houston is on rolls of 17-4-1 after a SU loss and 20-8-1 after an ATS setback, but the under has hit in five of the Texans’ last seven games against AFC foes. For Oakland, the under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall, 8-2-1 after a SU loss, 6-2-1 against the AFC and 7-3-1 as an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Tennessee (0-3, 1-2 ATS) at Jacksonville (1-2, 2-1 ATS)
The Titans, who led the NFL with a 13-3 mark in regular-season play last year, head to Jacksonville Municipal Stadium in dire need of a victory when they take on the division rival Jaguars.
Tennessee fought back from a 14-0 first-quarter deficit against the Jets to take a 17-14 lead, but couldn’t finish it off in a 24-17 road loss Sunday as a one-point pup. QB Kerry Collins (15 of 37, 170 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs) finished the game with 13 straight incompletions, and although the Titans outgained New York 286-229, they also had four turnovers, including two fumbles on special teams that led to two New York touchdowns.
Jacksonville upset Houston 31-24 as a four-point road pup Sunday, allowing just three second-half points to win for only the second time in its last 10 games (3-7 ATS), a skid dating to last November. QB David Garrard (18 of 30, 214 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) wasn’t flashy, but he protected the football, and RB Maurice Jones-Drew (23 carries, 119 yards, 3 TDs) had a big day, including a 61-yard TD jaunt in the second quarter and the game-winning TD early in the fourth. The Jags finished with 184 rushing yards.
Tennessee is 4-1 SU and ATS in the last five clashes in this AFC South rivalry, winning and covering in both meetings last year, including a 24-14 road victory laying one point in November. The Titans are 5-2 ATS on their last seven visits to Jacksonville, but the underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.
The Titans are on ATS skids of 1-4 overall and 0-4 giving points, but they remain on positive pointspread upticks of 7-2 against losing teams, 7-2 after a non-cover, 12-4 inside the division and 18-7 on the highway. The Jaguars are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 starts as a home pup, but they are otherwise stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall, 1-8 at home, 2-6 against the AFC and 2-6 against losing teams.
Tennessee is on “under” runs of 9-3 on the road, 4-1 as a road chalk and 6-0 with the Titans laying three points or less, and the under for Jacksonville is on streaks of 7-2 with the Jags getting points and 8-2 with Jack Del Rio’s troops installed as a home dog of three or less. Also, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in nine of the last 13 clashes in Jacksonville.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Baltimore (3-0 SU and ATS) at New England (2-1, 1-2 ATS)
The Ravens put their unbeaten mark on the line when they travel to Gillette Stadium for a battle with the Patriots.
Baltimore pounded overmatched Cleveland 34-3 Sunday and easily cashing as an overwhelming 13½-point home chalk, moving to 7-1 SU and ATS in its last eight dating to last December. QB Joe Flacco (25 of 35 for 342 yards, no INTs) had a huge day, including hurling a 72-yard TD pass to Derrick Mason. The Ravens’ defense posted four INTs in winning the turnover battle 4-1 and held the Browns to just 186 total yards, while Baltimore’s offense churned out 479 yards.
New England struggled a bit before scoring 10 fourth-quarter points to put away Atlanta 26-10 as a 4½-point home favorite Sunday. QB Tom Brady (25 of 42, 277 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) had a solid day, and veteran RB Fred Taylor (21 carries, 105 yards, 1 TD) came up big as the Pats outgained the Browns 445-257 in total yards.
These teams last met in December 2007, with New England rallying for a 27-24 road win en route to its unbeaten regular season. However, Baltimore easily covered as an eye-popping 19-point underdog to end a three-game ATS run by the Pats in this rivalry.
The Ravens are on nothing but positive pointspread runs, including 18-5 overall, 5-1 on the road, 6-1 against the AFC, 6-1 after a spread-cover, 13-3 after a SU win, 8-3 as a ‘dog and 5-0 catching three points or less. The Patriots are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 October affairs, but they are on ATS slides of 4-11 at home (all as a chalk), 5-13 after a SU win and 3-9 after a spread-cover.
The over for Baltimore is on tears of 7-2-1 on the highway and 6-1-1 with the Ravens as a road pup, while the over for New England is on upswings of 7-3 overall (all as a favorite), 4-1 at home and 5-2 in conference action.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE
Cincinnati (2-1 SU and ATS) at Cleveland (0-3 SU and ATS)
The Bengals, off to a surprising start, make the short instate trip to Cleveland Municipal Stadium to face the struggling Browns.
Cincinnati posted its second upset in as many weeks last Sunday, dumping defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home ‘dog, on the heels of an upset win at Green Bay as a nine-point pup. QB Carson Palmer (20 of 37, 183 yards, no INTs) had just one TD pass, but he made it count on a 4-yard strike to Andre Caldwell followed by a successful 2-point conversion with just 18 seconds remaining to give the Bengals the win despite being outgained 373-273 and having a nearly nine-minute deficit in time of possession.
Cleveland got hammered at Baltimore 34-3 Sunday as a 13½-point underdog, falling to 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games, as the Browns finished 2008 on a six-game slide. Brady Quinn passed for just 34 yards, with one INT, before getting yanked at halftime. Derek Anderson – who will start this week – relieved Quinn and threw three INTs in the second half while going 11 of 19 for 92 yards. The Browns got outgained 479-186 and lost the turnover battle 4-1.
These AFC North rivals have alternated SU and ATS wins over the past five meetings, with the visitor winning and cashing in both of last year’s contests, including the Bengals’ 14-0 December victory as a three-point ‘dog. The underdog is also on a 4-0 ATS run.
The Bengals are on ATS skids of 2-8 as a chalk, 4-10 against the AFC and 2-5 inside the division, but they currently sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall and 4-1 following a SU win. The Browns have cashed in their last five October starts, but the ATS streaks spiral downward from there, including 1-10-1 overall, 0-5-1 at home, 0-5 against winning teams, 0-6 as an underdog and 0-4 against AFC North rivals.
The under is on tears for Cincinnati of 5-2 overall, 5-0 with the Bengals favored and 4-0-1 against losing teams, and the under for Cleveland is on surges of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division and 4-1-1 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five clashes overall – including the last three in a row -- and eight of the last 10 in Cleveland.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
N.Y. Giants (3-0, 2-1 ATS), at Kansas City (0-3 SU and ATS)
The surging Giants look to remain unbeaten as they play their third straight road game, while the Chiefs continue to seek new coach Todd Haley’s first win in this non-conference clash at Arrowhead Stadium.
New York shut out Tampa Bay 24-0 Sunday laying six points, winning and covering on the road for a second consecutive week and improving to 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games. Eli Manning (14 of 21, 161 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient, letting Ahmad Bradshaw (14 carries, 104 yards) and Brandon Jacobs (26 carries, 92 yards, 1 TD) do the heavy lifting as the Giants rolled up 226 rushing yards. The Giants’ defense stole the show, though, holding the Bucs’ hapless offense to 86 yards and five first downs (all of which came in the final 1½ quarters).
Kansas City got pelted at Philadelphia 34-14 as a nine-point ‘dog, falling to 2-17 SU (8-11 ATS) in its last 19 games since the 2008 season opener. QB Matt Cassel threw for two TDs, with no INTs, but his 14-of-18 effort yielded just 90 yards, and the Chiefs finished with 196 total yards while allowing 420, including 327 through the air.
In two meaningful meetings this decade between these teams, New York has gone 2-0 SU and ATS, most recently prevailing 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk in December 2005.
The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 35-17-2 overall, a sterling 21-5 on the highway (12-2 last 14), 7-1 as a road chalk, 16-5-1 in October and 21-7 following an ATS win. On the flip side, the Chiefs are on ATS declines of 0-5 overall, 0-5 after a SU loss, 0-4 after a non-cover, 0-4 as a pup and 3-11 at Arrowhead.
New York is on “under” runs of 4-1 on the road, 5-0 after a spread-cover and 4-1 after a SU win, and the total has remained low in the last four meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, K.C. is on “over” tears of 6-2 at home and 7-1 as a home pup.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS
Detroit (1-2 SU and ATS) at Chicago (2-1 SU and ATS)
The Lions, coming off their first win since 2007, aim for two in a row when they travel to Soldier Field to face the Bears in an NFC North contest.
Detroit upset Washington 19-14 as a 6½-point home ‘dog Sunday, ending a 19-game losing skid (7-12 ATS) that dated to a 25-20 home win over Kansas City on Dec. 23, 2007. The Lions got out to a 13-0 lead and held on from there, with rookie QB Matthew Stafford (21 of 36, 241 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) leading a turnover-free offense that also got 101 rushing yards on 16 attempts from Kevin Smith. The Lions’ defense allowed just 65 rushing yards.
Chicago topped Seattle 25-19 as a one-point road chalk in Week 3, rallying from a 13-0 first-half deficit. QB Jay Cutler (21 of 27, 247 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid outing, connecting with Devin Hester on the winning 36-yard TD pass with two minutes remaining. It was an otherwise evenly played game, as the Bears finished with 318 yards and two turnovers while allowing 346 yards and forcing a pair of turnovers.
Detroit is 4-1 ATS (2-3 SU) in the last five clashes with Chicago, most recently cashing as a heavy 12½-point road pup in a 27-23 loss last November. The underdog is on an 8-2 ATS roll in this rivalry.
The Lions carry negative ATS streaks of 0-4 after a SU win, 1-5 after a spread-cover and 1-11 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. However, they have covered in six of their last seven road games, all from the underdog role, and they are on further ATS upswings of 4-1 in division play and 10-4-1 when catching double digits. The Bears are on a 10-4 ATS tear in October, but they are otherwise on pointspread skids of 0-5 against NFC North foes, 5-16-2 after a SU win and 4-10-1 as a home chalk.
The over for Detroit is on streaks of 17-7-1 overall, 20-6 on the highway, 10-2-1 against winning teams, 5-0 after a SU win and 9-1-1 after a spread-cover, and the over for Chicago is on rolls of 29-13-1 against the NFC and 17-5 with the Bears favored at home. Also, in this rivalry, the over is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Tampa Bay (0-3 SU and ATS) at Washington (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Buccaneers, still seeking their first win under new coach Raheem Morris, head to FedEx Field to take on the scuffling Redskins, who are coming off a humbling loss.
Tampa Bay got blanked by the Giants 24-0 Sunday as a six-point home pup, the team’s seventh consecutive defeat (1-6 ATS). The Bucs finished with an absolutely dismal 86 total yards and five first downs. Starting QB Byron Leftwich played into the fourth quarter, yet mustered just 22 passing yards on a 7-of-16 effort, with one INT. The Bucs’ defense yielded 397 yards, including 226 on the ground.
Second-year QB Josh Johnson replaced Leftwich against New York and has been named the starter for this game.
Washington allowed Detroit to snap its 19-game losing skid in a 19-14 setback as a 6½-point road favorite last Sunday. QB Jason Campbell (27 of 41, 340 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) finished with solid numbers, but the Redskins trailed 13-0 at halftime and couldn’t complete the comeback against a team that hadn’t won since 2007. Washington ran for just 64 yards while allowing 154, leading to a nearly 14-minute time-of-possession deficit.
Tampa Bay is 3-1 SU (2-1-1 ATS) in the last four meetings in this rivalry, including a 19-13 home win laying 3½ points in the most recent clash in November 2007. The home team is 7-3-1 ATS in the last 11 contests, and the favorite is on a 5-1-1 ATS roll.
The Buccaneers are on spread-covering slides of 0-5 overall, 1-7 against losing teams, 1-5 getting points, 1-4 against NFC foes and 4-8 as a non-division road pup. Likewise, the Redskins are on ATS dives of 1-7-3 overall, 1-6 at FedEx Field, 3-14-3 against losing teams and 0-4 as a home chalk.
Tampa Bay is on “over” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the road, 11-1 against losing teams and 12-4 following a double-digit home loss. Conversely, for Washington, the under is on stretches of 13-3-1 overall, 8-0 at home, 8-0-1 with the Redskins favored and 8-2-1 against NFC opponents.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
Seattle (1-2 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (3-0, 2-1 ATS)
The Colts put their unbeaten mark on the line when they play host to the Seahawks at Lucas Oil Stadium in a non-conference contest.
Indianapolis ripped defending NFC champion Arizona 31-10 Sunday night as a three-point road pup, winning and cashing for the second straight week on the road. QB Peyton Manning had a huge night, completing 24 of 35 passes for 375 yards and four TDs with one INT, and the Colts amassed a whopping 505 total yards while allowing 323. Indy also forced three turnovers – including a fumble at its own 5-yard line and an INT in the end zone.
Seattle fell to Chicago 25-19 as a one-point home pup Sunday, giving up a Jay Cutler-to-Devin Hester TD pass with two minutes remaining in a game it led 13-0 in the second quarter. QB Seneca Wallace, subbing for Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib), went 26 of 44 for 261 yards with one TD and one INT, but the Seahawks mustered just six second-half points – on a pair of fourth-quarter field goals from Olindo Mare, who also missed two makeable field goals.
Hasselbeck almost certainly will not play today.
Outside of preseason play, these teams have met just twice in the past nine years, with Indianapolis taking a 37-24 road win laying six points in October 2000, and Seattle winning 28-13 giving 10 points at home on Christmas Eve 2005 when the Colts rested several starters in what was a meaningless game for them.
The Colts are on a 3-8 ATS purge on their home field and are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 starts coming off a spread-cover, but they are on ATS upticks of 4-1-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 7-2 in October. The Seahawks are 8-3-1 ATS in their last dozen following a non-cover, but they are on a 6-21 ATS freefall in October and a 2-5-1 ATS skid against winning teams. Seattle is also 9-21 ATS in its last 30 non-division roadies.
The under is on runs of 8-3-1 overall for Seattle, 7-2 for the Seahawks against winning teams, 4-1 overall for Indy and 5-2 for the Colts at home.
ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER
N.Y. Jets (3-0 SU and ATS) at New Orleans (3-0 SU and ATS)
A battle of unbeatens takes place in the Big Easy when the surprising Jets square off against the high-octane Saints at the Superdome.
New York held off Tennessee 24-17 Sunday giving one point at home, staying perfect SU and ATS this year following a 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS skid that killed its 2008 season. Rookie QB Mark Sanchez (17 of 30, 171 yards, 2 passing TDs, 1 rushing TD, 1 INT) wasn’t flashy but did just enough for the Jets, including crashing into the end zone on a 14-yard TD run on the game’s opening possession. New York finished with just 229 total yards, while allowing 286, but it won the turnover battle 4-2, scoring two touchdowns off of two Tennessee special-teams fumbles
New Orleans bounced host Buffalo 27-7 laying 5½ points Sunday, holding the Bills scoreless in the second half. QB Drew Brees (16 of 29, 172 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) had a sub-par game by his standards, but the Saints rolled up 222 rushing yards, paced by RB Pierre Thomas (14 carries, 126 yards, 2 TDs), who averaged a whopping 9 yards per carry. New Orleans allowed just 243 total yards and had a seven-minute time-of-possession edge.
These teams have split two regular-season meetings this decade SU and ATS, with the road team winning and cashing each time. Most recently, New Orleans prevailed 21-19 as a 2½-point pup in November 2005.
The Jets are on pointspread surges of 5-0 as a ‘dog, 4-0 as a road pup, 6-1 after an ATS win, 7-2 after a SU win and 5-2 against winning teams. However, they also carry negative ATS streaks of 1-7 in October and 2-7 against the NFC on the road. The Saints are on an 8-1-1 ATS tear overall and sport additional positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 at home, 10-1 as a chalk, 7-0 laying 3½ to 10 points and 5-1 against AFC opponents.
For New York, the under is on upticks of 4-1 overall and 7-3-1 on the road. Meanwhile, the over for New Orleans is on rolls of 20-8-1 overall, 12-1-1 at the Superdome, 14-5-1 with the Saints favored and a lengthy 45-20-2 against winning teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER
Buffalo (1-2, 2-1 ATS) at Miami (0-3 SU and ATS)
A season after claiming the AFC East title, the Dolphins are still searching for their first win of the 2009 campaign, and if they get it today against the Bills at Land Shark Stadium, it will have to be with a new quarterback.
Miami lost to San Diego 23-13 as a 5½-point road underdog Sunday, and they lost QB Chad Pennington in the process. Pennington (8 of 12, 54 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) was unproductive before suffering a season-ending shoulder injury in the third quarter. Chad Henne (10 of 19, 92 yards 0 TDs, 1 INT) subbed for Pennington and now assumes the starting role. The Dolphins rushed for 149 yards last week and had a five-minute edge in time of possession, but Henne’s INT was returned for a TD that put the game away.
Buffalo had little for New Orleans on Sunday, losing 27-7 as a 5½-point home pup. QB Trent Edwards was 20 of 35 for a pedestrian 156 passing yards with no TDs and one INT. The Bills allowed the normally pass-happy Saints to rack up 222 rushing yards and a seven-minute time-of-possession advantage. Buffalo’s rushing attack should get a boost this week with the return of RB Marshawn Lynch, who sat out the first three games on suspension.
Miami won and covered in both meetings in this rivalry last year, including a 25-16 home victory laying one point in October. Prior to that, Buffalo was on a 7-1 SU and 7-0-1 ATS roll against the Dolphins.
The Dolphins are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 0-4 overall, 1-5 as a home ‘dog, 8-23-1 against losing teams, 8-21-2 within the AFC East and 15-36-1 in Miami. The Bills are 2-5 ATS in their last seven division starts, but they are on positive ATS runs 7-3 on the road (4-0 last four), 4-0 after a SU loss, 5-1 after a double-digit home loss and 25-7-1 against losing teams.
The over for Buffalo is on rolls of 4-0 on the road, 4-0 after a SU loss, 7-3-1 as a chalk and 6-2 as a road favorite. The under for Miami is on streaks of 4-1 overall, 5-1 with the Dolphins as a pup, 5-2 at home, 5-2 in division play and 7-3 against AFC foes. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings overall and five of the last seven in Miami.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BUFFALO and UNDER
St. Louis (0-3, 2-1 ATS) at San Francisco (2-1, 3-0 ATS)
The 49ers, coming off a gut-wrenching Week 3 loss, return home with a good chance to get back on track when they host the dismal Rams at Candlestick Park.
San Francisco had Minnesota on the ropes last Sunday before losing 24-20 as a seven-point road ‘dog on Brett Favre’s 32-yard TD toss to Greg Lewis with two seconds left in the game. QB Shaun Hill (15 of 25, 195 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was serviceable, but he likely missed star RB Frank Gore, who left the game after just one carry due to an ankle injury. The 49ers got outgained 377-246 and also gave up a 101-yard Percy Harvin kick return for a TD.
St. Louis’ struggles continued with a 36-17 home loss to Green Bay last Sunday as a 6½-point pup for its 13th consecutive defeat (5-8 ATS). QB Marc Bulger (3 of 4, 23 yards) left in the second quarter with a shoulder injury, and Kyle Boller (16 of 31, 164 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was fair as a substitute, boosted by Steven Jackson’s 117 rushing yards on 27 carries. But the Rams had three turnovers while forcing none.
Gore is expected to miss at least the next two games, while Bulger will serve as the Rams’ No. 3 quarterback if he dresses, meaning Boller will start
San Francisco won both its games last year against St. Louis, splitting the cash, including a 35-16 home victory as a seven-point chalk in November. The 49ers are 7-2 ATS in the last nine clashes overall and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings at The Stick, but the underdog has cashed in seven of the last nine clashes.
The Rams are on pointspread freefalls of 7-15 overall (all as an underdog), 5-13 against winning teams and 3-12 versus NFC West foes. The 49ers are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 October starts and 9-19-2 ATS in their last 30 from the favorite’s role, but they are on pointspread rolls of 8-2-1 overall, 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 in division play.
San Francisco is on “over” streaks of 10-4 as a favorite and 5-2 at home, but the under for the Niners is on stretches of 6-2 overall and 13-6 against NFC West rivals. St. Louis is on “under” runs of 6-2-1 overall, 4-1-1 in the division, 19-9 on the road and 13-6 with the Rams as a road pup. Also, the under has been the play in five of the last six meetings in this rivalry.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER
Dallas (2-1 SU and ATS) at Denver (3-0 SU and ATS)
The Broncos put their surprising unbeaten mark on the line at Invesco Field in a non-conference clash with the Cowboys.
Denver rolled over offensively challenged Oakland 23-3 Sunday as a one-point road favorite, winning and cashing for the third straight week after ending the 2008 campaign on streaks of 0-3 SU and 0-4 ATS. QB Kyle Orton (13 of 23, 157 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs) got plenty of help from RBs Correll Buckhalter (14 carries, 108 yards) and rookie Knowshon Moreno (21 carries, 90 yards, 1 TD) as the Broncos gashed the Raiders for 215 yards. Denver’s defense allowed just 137 total yards and has given up a total of 16 points (one touchdown) this season.
Dallas bounced back from its last-second home loss to the Giants by beating Carolina 21-7 Monday night as a heavy nine-point home chalk. QB Tony Romo (22 of 33, 255 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) led a turnover-free offense, and RBs Felix Jones and Tashard Choice combined for 176 rushing yards. But the Cowboys still needed Terence Newman’s 27-yard INT return for a TD to put the game away and cover the number.
These teams have met twice this decade in regular-season play, with Denver going 2-0 SU (1-1 ATS). In the most recent clash in November 2005, the Broncos won 24-21 in overtime as a two-point road favorite.
The Broncos have cashed in all three games this season and are on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a home ‘dog, but they remain on a bundle of negative ATS streaks, including 13-29-1 overall, 7-19-1 at Mile High, 6-17-1 after a SU win, 5-13 against winning teams and 3-9 against the NFC.
The Cowboys have failed to cover in five of their last seven roadies and are 1-4 ATS in their last five starts versus winning teams and 2-5 ATS in their last seven against AFC opponents. However, they are on ATS upswings of 7-2 as a favorite, 7-1-1 as a chalk of three or less and 4-0 as a road favorite of the same price.
The under for Denver is on tears of 10-4-1 overall (3-0 this year), 8-0 after a SU win and 6-1 at home, but the over is 10-4-2 in the Broncos’ last 16 starts as an underdog. The over for Dallas is on runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 after a SU victory, 7-2 in October, 5-2 on the road and 14-5-2 with the Cowboys favored on the highway. Finally, the last four meetings in this rivalry have cleared the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
San Diego (2-1, 1-2 ATS) at Pittsburgh (1-2, 0-3 ATS)
The Steelers, surprising losers of two in a row, look to regain their Super Bowl championship form when they host the Chargers in prime time at Heinz Field.
Pittsburgh stumbled at Cincinnati 23-20 Sunday giving 3½ points for its second consecutive SU and ATS loss, both from the favorite’s role. The Steelers led 20-9 entering the fourth quarter, but they gave up TD drives of 85 and 71 yards, with the Bengals getting the game-winning TD with just 18 seconds remaining. QB Ben Roethlisberger (22 of 31, 276 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) and RB Willie Parker (25 carries, 93 yards) helped Pittsburgh post a 373-273 yardage edge, and the Steelers had a more than nine-minute edge in time of possession.
San Diego topped Miami 23-13 as a 5½-point home favorite, covering for the first time this season. QB Philip Rivers paved the way, going 18 of 33 for 303 yards, with no TDs but also no INTs, and WR Vincent Jackson (5 catches, 120 yards) also had a big day. Defensively, the Chargers got an INT return for a TD from Eric Weddle to seal the victory, but still gave up 149 rushing yards. San Diego’s defense is surrendering 142.3 rushing yards per contest, but Pittsburgh’s running is only netting 66.3 ypg.
The Chargers were without star RB LaDainian Tomlinson (ankle), but he is expected back tonight..
These two squads met twice last year, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, both at home. In November, the Steelers squeaked out an ugly 11-10 win laying 4½ points – failing to cover when the officials mistakenly ruled a fumble return for a touchdown as non-advanceable. Then in the divisional playoff round, they won 35-24 as a 6½-point chalk.
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in the last eight clashes in this rivalry, with the favorite also 6-2 ATS in that span, and the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings in Pittsburgh. San Diego has also dropped 13 consecutive regular-season games at Pittsburgh.
Dating to their Super Bowl win, the Steelers have dropped four straight ATS decisions (all as a chalk), but they remain on pointspread rolls of 5-1 at home (all as a favorite), 6-2 against winning teams, 19-7 laying 3½ to 10 points and 24-9-1 in October. The Chargers are on positive ATS runs of 19-7-3 as a ‘dog, 10-2-1 catching 3½ to 10 points and 20-9-1 against the AFC, but they’ve cashed in just two of their last eight road games and are on a 2-6 ATS skid following a spread-cover.
The over for Pittsburgh is on tears of 46-20-2 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 14-5 against the AFC, and the over for San Diego is on streaks of 6-2 overall, 18-6-2 on the highway and 7-3-1 with the Chargers as a road pup. That said, the under has hit in three of the last four meetings between these two teams.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
GAMETIMEPICKS.COM
Week 4's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By VICTOR RYAN
New York Jets at New Orleans (-7.5, 45)
Mark Sanchez vs. New Orleans’ third-down defense
The Saints boast a Top-10 defense under new defensive coordinator Gregg Williams and part of that is the ability to clampdown on third down. New Orleans has allowed its opponents to convert on just 27.3 percent (12-for-44) of third downs, which is good for third in the NFL.
The Jets offense has certainly been adequate this season, as evidenced by their 3-0 record, but third-downs could pose a problem this week. The New Yorkers have converted just 37.9 percent of third downs to rank 19th in the NFL.
Jim Leonhard vs. New Orleans’ punt team
The Jets special teams have been excellent this season and the punt return unit has been no exception. Return man Jim Leonhard rank sixth in the league with 15.7 yards a return and now gets a Saints’ punt unit that has shown some vulnerability
Special teams coach Mike Westhoff has been praised this week in New York for the team’s special team success. In addition to the strong punt return team, the Jets are sixth in the league in starting position and fourth in kickoff defense.
"One of his strengths is game planning each week," said special teams ace Larry Izzo, who also played under Westhoff in Miami for a few years. "It's his understanding where we can take advantage of an opponent in any of the phases, whether it's a return or coverage, and how we can best handle them each week."
Leonhard has been dealing with a knee injury this week, but he practiced Friday and is expected to play. The Saints enter this with the 20th-ranked punt coverage unit.
San Diego Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, 43)
Darren Sproles vs. Pittsburgh’s run defense
It has been a challenge running between the tackles this season for Sproles and the Chargers. The diminutive one is averaging just 2.4 yards a carry as the Chargers feature back and as a team the Bolts rank 31st in rushing offense. Help could be on the way, though, as LaDainian Tomlinson practiced this week and could play after missing the previous two weeks.
Still, a stout Steelers’ run defense, especially at home, figures to be a major challenge for a Chargers’ offensive line that is reeling with injuries. Pittsburgh is holding opponents to just 76.7 yards a game on the ground, good for sixth in the NFL.
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (+1, 37)
Ronnie Brown vs. Buffalo’s rush defense
The Bills have been gouged for 117.3 yards a game on the ground and now get the league’s third-best running offense.
The 0-3 Dolphins are struggling as a team, but the ground game certainly resembles the division-winning Dolphins of a season ago. Brown is averaging 4.9 yards a carry and, as a team, the Dolphins rank third in the NFL with 161.3 yards a game. They figure to lean on the running game even more this week with the inexperienced Chad Henne getting the start at quarterback.
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-10, 39)
Johnny Knox vs. Lions’ kickoff team
Knox had big shoes to fill as the Bears’ main return man. And the rookie out of Abilene College has responded just fine. Knox is averaging 29.2-yards a return, which includes a long of 53, to rank fifth in the NFL. He’s facing a sub-par coverage unit for the Lions. Detroit has given up 24.5-yards a return to rank 22nd in the league.
Cincinnati Bengals at Cleveland Browns (+5.5, 38)
Quan Cosby vs. Cleveland punt team
Cosby has been a pleasant surprise for the Bengals. The rookie out of Texas is averaging 16.4 yards a return, which includes a 60-yard long, to rank fourth in the league. As a unit the Bengals rank third in punt return average.
“The thing about Quan is he gets the ball up the field…and the guys are really blocking,” said special teams coach Darrin Simmons.
The Browns rank 18th in net punting with 40.3 yards an attempt and are 28th in punt return yards allowed.
New York Giants at Kansas City Chiefs (+9, 42.5)
Matt Cassel vs. New York’s pass defense
Cassel was held to just 90 yards passing in the Chiefs loss to the Eagles last week and is now facing the No. 1 pass defense in the league.
Cassel has been constantly pressured behind a porous offensive line that has given up five sacks in the last two games. The Chiefs are averaging 164 yards a game through the air to rank 28th while the Giants defense is giving up just 124 yards a game via the pass to top the league.
Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9, 42.5)
Texans’ kickoff team vs. Raiders’ kickoff returners
Don’t count on the Raiders anemic offense to get much help from its return teams in this one. Oakland is averaging just 19.3 yards a kick return (fourth worst in the league) while Houston boasts the third-best kick coverage unit at just 18.9 yards a return.