NFL Week 10 Games
Bengals (2-6) @ Colts (5-3) - Short work week, short (2-hour) road trip for Cincy squad that’s lost its last five games, allowing average of 27 ppg. Indy won last six series games by average score of 35-19; Bengals’ last series was in ’97. Colts are 3-0 as home favorite this year, winning by 24-10-13 points Cincy is 1-3 on road in ’10, 0-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-3-7 points (only win was in rain at Carolina)- they allowed 10-7 points in their only two wins. Since 2001, Colts are just 15-23 vs. spread in game following a loss, but they’re 2-0 in that role this year. In their last three games, Cincy opponents started eight of 35 drives in Bengal territory. Four of last five Bengal games went over total.
Texans (4-4) @ Jaguars (4-4) - Texans allowed 31 ppg in last four games, have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points, 0-4 if they don’t. Houston lost last three visits here by 37-17/30-27ot/23-18 scores, as home side won five of last six series games, with average total of 54.0. Texans lost three of last four games and trailed by 10 with 5:00 left in game they won- they’re 2-1 on road, with average total in those three games, 53.0. Houston is 8-4 in last 12 games as underdog of 3 or less points. Jags have only played two games decided by less than 10 points. Home favorites in divisional games are 6-14 vs spread in NFL this year. This is first time since Week 1 that Jacksonville is favored.
Jets (6-2) @ Browns (3-5) - Mangini faces his old team week after he beat mentor Belichick; he has few former Jets on his team now. Rex Ryan’s brother is Browns’ DC. Jets are 4-0 on road, with last two wins coming in dramatic fashion late in game. Red flag for Jets—no takeaways in last two games (-5 TO’s, still +5 for season). Browns beat Saints/Pats in last two games after 1-5 start; they’re 4-2-1 vs. spread as underdog this year. Since 2007, Browns are 10-6 as a home dog. Cleveland won three of four series games, with all four games decided by 7 or less points. Six of last seven Jet games, five of last six Cleveland games went over total. League-wide, home dogs are 13-10-3 vs. spread in non-divisional games.
Titans (5-3) @ Dolphins (5-3) - Moss makes Tennessee debut for team that scored 31.5 ppg in last four games (3-1), but is missing top WR Britt (hamstring). Titans are 3-1 on road this year, losing only at San Diego after Britt/Young both got hurt- they’re 22-12-1 vs. spread in last 35 road games. Miami is woeful 16-41 vs spread in last 57 home games; they’re 0-3 at home this year, losing by 8-27-1 point, allowing 31.7 ppg. Tennessee scored 29+ points in all five wins; they’re 0-3 if they score less than 29. Miami has only five takeaways in last five games (-7), giving up three defensive TDs and a kick return for TD. Four of last five Titan games went over total; three of last four Miami games stayed under. Pennington getting first start of year for Miami.
Vikings (3-5) @ Bears (5-3) - Home side won six of last seven series games; Vikings are 1-8 in last nine visits here, losing in OT LY (last win here, 34-31 in ’07). Average total in last four series games, 62.3. Minnesota is 0-4 on road this year, losing by 5-9-4-10 points, giving up 28.3 ppg in last three away games (gave up seven TDs on 18 drives in last two). Both teams have already played five games decided by 5 or less points. Underdog is 6-1-1 vs. spread in Chicago games this year; Bears lost last two home games (Seattle/Redskins)- they’re 5-1 if they score 19+ points. Home teams are 16-21-1 vs. spread (23-15 SU) in divisional games so far this season. Five of last six Chicago games stayed under total; last five Minnesota games went over.
Lions (2-6) @ Bills (0-8) - Detroit QB Stafford is out (shoulder); looks like 2nd-stringer Hill will get nod for improving Lion squad that lost last 24 road games SU but is 7-1 vs spread this year overall, covering last five games. Lions are 3-1 as road dog this year- they scored 44-37 points in their wins, scored 20+ in four of six losses. Winless Buffalo is favored after losing last three games by FG each; they’ve converted 32 of last 56 on 3rd down (57.1%), but turned ball over eight times (-5) in those games. Bills are 4-7 vs. spread in last 11 games as a home favorite. Home team won last four series games, with Lions losing last two visits here, 22-13/24-17. Last five Detroit games went over the total. Lions were only team to lose to 1-15 Rams LY.
Panthers (1-7) @ Buccaneers (5-3) - NFC South home teams are 0-6 vs spread (2-4 SU) in divisional games this year. Carolina won six of last seven visits here, in series where road team is 8-4 in last 12 meetings. Tampa Bay (+3) won first meeting 20-7 in Charlotte back in Week 2, with three takeaways (+3) and four sacks. Panther QB Moore (shoulder) is out for year, so up to rookies Clausen/Pike to move ball enough to win battle for field position (-19/-8 in last two games). Bucs are 5-3 despite being dog in six of eight games; they’re 0-1-1 as favorite in ’10, winning those two games by 1-3 points- the win at Carolina is their only win this year by more than a FG. Six of last seven Panther games stayed under the total.
Chiefs (5-3) @ Broncos (2-6) - Chiefs’ 44-24 win here LY ended 0-8 skid at Invesco, in series where home side is still 12-3. KC is 1-3 on road, losing last three- their last two games both went OT. Four of their last seven games overall were decided by four or less points. Broncos lost last five games, allowing 34.5 ppg in last four; since starting LY 6-0, Denver is now 4-16 in last 20 games- they’ve given up 17 TDs on 45 drives over last four games, and allowed 14+ second half points in six of last seven games. Chiefs are 1-3 if they allow more than 14 points; they had 228+ rushing yards in three of last four games. This is just second time since 2007 that Chiefs are road favorite. Over is 6-2 in Denver games, 3-1 in Chiefs’ last four contests.
Cowboys (1-7) @ Giants (6-2) - Woeful Dallas changed head coaches Monday; it means they’ve got new defensive guru but same offensive one, as Garrett is interim coach. Problem is, they’ve got same ragtag OL protecting 38-year old Kitna. Cowboys lost last five games, giving up 41-35-45 points in last three (!4 TDs on last 35 drives)- they’re 1-2 as road dog this year, with road losses by 6-3-38 points. Giants (+3) outrushed Pokes 200-35 three weeks ago in 41-35 road win; they’ve won five games in row (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 36 ppg in last four wins. Methodical Giants ran ball for 167-200-197 yards in last three games. Giants are 5-3 vs spread in last eight tries as double digit favorite. Last five Dallas games, last three Giant tilts all stayed under total.
Rams (4-4) @ 49ers (2-6) - Niners are 8-2 in last ten series games, winning six of last eight played here, but don’t see gritty Rams (6-1-1 vs. spread, only one loss by more than 4 points) as 6-point dog to disappointing 49er squad that’s using former 3rd-stringer Smith as starting QB. (Rams have three LBs who are former Buckeyes, just like Smith). SF is 2-6 despite being favored in six of first eight games; they’re 1-2 at home (only win 17-9 vs. Raiders), 2-4 vs. spread as favorite. Rams held four of last five opponents under 90 yards rushing, but Bradford still looking for first road win (0-3, scored 14-6-17 points (four TDs on 30 drives)). Lions are only team this season to score more than 17 points against the Rams. Six of eight St Louis games stayed under the total.
Seahawks (4-4) @ Cardinals (3-5) - Seattle got outscored 74-10 in last two games, as numerous roster moves have failed to patch holes on both lines. Seahawks lost last four visits to desert, by 6-3-13-11 points, with average total in those games, 49.3. Arizona (+7) lost 22-10 at Seattle three weeks ago, turning ball over five times, completing just 12-33 passes, converting 2 of 12 on 3rd down. Seahawks are 1-3 on road under Carroll, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 17-17-30 points (won 23-20 at Chicago). Arizona is 0-3 since its bye, giving up 29 ppg; they’re 0-2-1 as favorite this year, 2-1 at home (all three games went over). Only once in last seven games have Cardinals averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt. Six of last seven Arizona games went over the total.
Patriots (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2) - No team has run ball for more than 75 yards vs. Steelers this year, will be up to Brady to move ball thru air here, but only once in last five games have Pats averaged more than 5.7 yards/pass attempt, which isn’t very good- they miss deep threat Moss provided. You think of Pittsburgh as running team, but in last five games, they haven’t run ball for more than 121 yards; they hung on for dear life vs. Bengals Monday night when they couldn’t run out clock on ground. NE won four of last five visits here, but this is first time here since ’05. Pitt is 2-1 at home this year, 1-1 as home favorite; this is just second home game this year for Big Ben. Pats scored 14 points in both their losses. Over is 3-1 in last four Steeler games, 6-2 in Patriot games.
Eagles (5-3) @ Redskins (4-4) - McNabb won 17-12 in his return to Philly (+5) in Week 4, but completed just 8-19 passes in doing so (Skins ran ball for 169 yards); now, after he got benched at end of loss in their last game, questions have arisen as to how much faith Team Shanahan has in #5. Vick got hurt in first meeting, now he’s healthy; Eagles are 3-1 on road, scoring 27.3 ppg and they had 4th quarter lead in game they lost. Philly won eight of last ten visits here- they’re 2-3 as favorite this year. Redskins are 1-2 at home, with all three games decided by three points. Shanahan is 7-1 in last eight post-bye games, but Redskins are 1-4 vs. spread in last five as post-bye underdog. Last four Eagle games all went over the total.
Week 10 AFC Matchups
By Kevin Rogers
Four teams in the AFC own 6-2 records going into Thursday night and are on the fast track to the playoffs. Two of them hook up in the Sunday night showdown in Pittsburgh when the Steelers host the Patriots. The Ravens have a tough test in Atlanta on Thursday, while the Jets head to Cleveland on Sunday. Is there an opportunity for any other AFC teams to make waves in the playoff picture with eight games to go? We'll take a look at the five AFC contests beginning with the surprising team based in Northern Ohio.
Jets (-3, 37½) at Browns
Cleveland began the season as a lost cause inside a difficult AFC North, but the Browns are starting to make headlines the last few weeks with blowout wins over the Saints and Patriots. The Browns try to run their winning streak to three when the Jets come to town, as New York escaped Detroit with an overtime victory.
The Jets needed a late rally to force overtime, but failed to cover as five-point road favorites. New York has finished 'over' the total in all six victories, while going 'under' in both losses to the Packers and Ravens. The Jets are making their first trip to Cleveland since 2006, when Eric Mangini coached in New York, as the Browns' head man faces his old team for the first time since getting fired in 2008.
The Browns have turned into a solid 'over' play since consecutive 'unders' to start the season. Cleveland has cashed five of six 'overs,' while going 4-2 ATS the last six games as an underdog. Since Colt McCoy has taken under center for the Browns, Cleveland is 2-1 SU/ATS, as the former Texas Longhorn has led this team to 64 points the last two weeks.
Bengals at Colts (-7, 47)
Cincinnati was dealt another devastating loss on Monday night by falling short in a 27-21 setback to Pittsburgh. The Bengals are in the cellar of the AFC North at 2-6 as things don't get easier this week with a trip to Indianapolis. The Colts are still dinged up offensively with a myriad of injuries, but Indianapolis starts the day tied atop the AFC South at 5-3.
The Bengals were an outstanding play as an underdog when they won the division last season, covering seven of nine games. This season has been a different story as the Bengals own a 1-3 SU/ATS mark when receiving points. Four of five games in Cincinnati's current five-game skid have finished 'over' the total, while the defense has allowed at least 22 points in each of these losses.
To think the Colts will automatically bounce back after losing at Philadelphia last week isn't strong reasoning. Since 2006, Indianapolis is just 4-9 ATS coming off a SU defeat, but two of those wins have come this season against the Giants and Chiefs. The Colts have alternated 'overs' and 'unders' each of the last seven games, fresh off an 'over' of 46 ½ against the Eagles last Sunday.
Titans (-2, 43) at Dolphins
Both teams have shaken things up recently with former Marshall teammates getting thrown into this week's storyline. Randy Moss will make his Titans' debut after he was picked up off waivers during the bye week, hoping to bolster a beat-up Tennessee receiving corpse. Moss' quarterback with the Thundering Herd, Chad Pennington, has been thrust into the starting role this week for the Dolphins as he replaces the ineffective Chad Henne.
The Titans look to rebound after losing late at San Diego two weeks ago, 33-25 as six-point road 'dogs. Tennessee's offense has been impressive even with the revolving door of Vince Young and Kerry Collins at quarterback as this team has put up 25 points or more in six of eight games. The Titans find ways to cover as road favorites by compiling an 8-4 ATS mark since 2007 when laying points on the highway.
Pennington hasn't played since a season-ending shoulder injury in the third game of 2009. He takes over for Henne, as the ex-Michigan quarterback has thrown 10 interceptions, while the Dolphins have reached the end zone just three times in the last three weeks. Pennington led the NFL in completion percentage (67%) in his marvelous 2008 season in which the Dolphins finished 11-5 and captured the AFC East title. Miami is 0-3 SU at home, while owning a 2-9 ATS ledger at Sun Life Stadium against non-division opponents under Tony Sparano.
Texans at Jaguars (-1½, 50)
A pair of 4-4 teams that are basically in a must-win situation lock horns in Jacksonville. Houston has dropped four of six games since a 2-0 start as the Texans try to avenge a sweep by the Jaguars last season. Jacksonville is fresh off the bye week after its annihilation of Dallas two weeks ago, 35-17 as 6 ½-point underdogs.
The Jags have shown signs of life offensively by tallying at least 31 points in three of four victories, which is good news against a Texans' defense allowing 28.3 ppg this season (tied for 29th alongside Jacksonville). The 'over' has translated nicely for Jacksonville by hitting in six of eight games, while Houston is 5-3 to the 'over.'
Jacksonville grabbed both meetings last season as an underdog, as the Jags are 3-0 the last three home matchups with the Texans. Houston is just 1-5 ATS the previous six games, while going 2-8 ATS under Gary Kubiak in the first of consecutive road games (Texans battle the Jets next week).
Chiefs at Broncos
Kansas City leads the AFC West halfway through the season at 5-3, but the Chiefs should be sitting at 6-2 after blowing numerous opportunities in last week's overtime loss at Oakland. Denver returns to play in the United States following a deflating defeat in London to San Francisco as the Broncos try to improve on a dreadful 2-6 record.
The Broncos fell short in a 24-20 home loss to the Jets in mid-October, which seemed like Denver could hang with some of the big dogs in the AFC. Things fell apart at the seams the next week when the Broncos were beat down by the Raiders, 59-14. Following the London loss to the Niners, Denver looks to improve on a 5-14-1 ATS ledger at Invesco Field since 2008. Josh McDaniels' Broncos began last season at 6-0 SU/ATS, but are just 4-14 SU and 5-13 ATS the past 18 games.
The Chiefs' top-ranked rushing offense was limited to 104 yards in the Oakland loss, 75 yards below their season average. This can be a good week for Kansas City to bounce back against a Denver run defense that is allowing 154.6 yards/game, which ranks 31st in the NFL. Todd Haley's squad has won only one of four road games, but the Chiefs have been right there in all three defeats at Indianapolis, Houston, and Oakland.
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NFL poolies cheat sheet: Week 10
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-3)
Why Lions cover: Buffalo will be without second leading receiver and top punt returner Roscoe Parrish as well as linebacker Andra Davis who is out for the year with a shoulder injury.
Why Bills cover: Their last three games have all been narrow losses. Shaun Hill will quarterback the Lions in Matthew Stafford's absence and does so coming off a fractured forearm.
Total (43): The over is 5-0 in the Lions' last five games.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3)
Why Jets cover: They have won seven consecutive road games straight up. Their running game could be problematic for Cleveland's 22nd ranked defense.
Why Browns cover: They are coming off huge upsets of the Saints and Patriots. Colt McCoy is completing 67.6 percent of his passes and Peyton Hillis has been punishing opponents on the ground.
Total (37.5): The over is 5-0 in the Jets' last five road games and 5-1 in the Browns' last six games overall.
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
Why Panthers cover: They're 13-6 ATS in their last 19 meetings and 5-2 ATS in their last seven games in Tampa Bay.
Why Buccaneers cover: With Matt Moore injured again, either Jimmy Clausen or Tony Pike will quarterback the Panthers. Mike Goodson will start at running back with both DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart out.
Total (36.5): The over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Tampa Bay.
Cincinnati Bengals at Indianapolis Colts (-7)
Why Bengals cover: Indianapolis still has multiple injuries on both side of the ball. Wideout Terrell Owens has been a huge part of the Bengals’ offense over the last five games (618 yards, seven touchdowns).
Why Colts cover: The Bengals are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings in Indianapolis.
Total (47): The over is 5-1 in the Bengals' last six road games and 4-1 in their last five games overall.
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1)
Why Titans cover: Randy Moss' presence should make it easier for Chris Johnson to run. Their opportunistic defense should prove troublesome for a Miami team that is prone to turning over the ball.
Why Dolphins cover: Vince Young is still battling an ankle injury and has barely practiced the past couple of weeks. Chad Pennington will replace Chad Henne at quarterback to try and jumpstart the offense.
Total (43): The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 5-0 in the last five meetings in Miami.
Minnesota at Chicago (+1)
Why Vikings cover: They have the defensive front to put pressure on Jay Cutler who often holds onto the ball too long or forces it into double coverage.
Why Bears cover: The Vikings are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Chicago. Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (41): The over is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1)
Why Texans cover: They're 11-5 ATS in their last 16 meetings. The underdog is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings between these two sides.
Why Jaguars cover: They have won three consecutive home games straight up against Houston and quarterback David Garrard is 5-2 straight up against them in his career. Matt Schaub is dealing with a rib injury.
Total (50): The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Jacksonville.
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (+1)
Why Chiefs cover: Their potent rushing attack should have no problem with a Broncos defense that is allowing 154.6 yards per game on the ground.
Why Broncos cover: They are 15-6 straight up coming off a bye week.
Total (42.5): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6)
Why Rams cover: Their revamped defense is often overlooked due to Sam Bradford's impressive rookie season. They have the NFC's fourth best defense and are holding opponents 97.8 rushing yards and 17.6 points per game.
Why 49ers cover: The Rams are 8-20-2 ATS in their last 30 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five contests in San Francisco.
Total (38): The under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings and 5-2 in the last seven games in San Francisco.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Why Seahawks cover: Matt Hasselbeck is over his concussion and will start at quarterback this week.
Why Cardinals cover: The Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Cards and 0-4 ATS in their last four trips to Arizona. The home team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.
Total (41): The over is 9-4 in the last 13 games between these two teams and 6-0 in the last six in Arizona.
Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-13.5)
Why Cowboys cover: Highly-respected Jason Garrett finally gets to show what he can do as the head coach of an NFL team. DeMarcus Ware has eight sacks in his last seven games against New York.
Why Giants cover: The Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the G-Men and 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games visiting the Giants.
Total (45.5): The over is 4-1 in the last five series meetings and 3-0-1 in the last four games in New York.
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5)
Why Patriots cover: They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against the Steelers and 5-1 ATS in their last six at Pittsburgh. The road team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings and the underdog is 8-2 ATS.
Why Steelers cover: Without Randy Moss, Tom Brady's completion percentage has dropped almost 12 points and his quarterback rating has plummeted 25 points. He is also getting sacked more due to teams stacking the line of scrimmage.
Total (45): The over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Pittsburgh.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3)
Why Eagles cover: They're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings in Washington. The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings.
Why Redskins cover: Donovan McNabb beat his old in Week 4 at Philadelphia as 5-point underdogs and will be even more motivated now that his current coach is questioning his conditioning and play calling.
Total (42.5): The under is 9-4-1 in the last 14 meetings and 5-2-2 in the last nine meetings in Washington.
Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David
Week 9 Recap
Most gambling enthusiasts following the NFL this season know very well that the underdogs have been cashing often at the betting counter. While those pups have been hurting the public’s bankroll, some bettors have been earning their coin back with ‘over’ tickets. On the season, the ‘over’ has gone 72-56-2 (56%) and that includes last week’s 10-3 performance. Plus the primetime games on Sunday (6-4) have leaned toward the ‘over.’ And totals have been steady on Monday (5-5) as well, even though a couple of those winners were lucky.
We’re starting to see more divisional games as the season progresses, eight this week, plus the all important weather factor will start to kick in as well. Will they help the pendulum swing back?
After watching Thursday’s game between Atlanta and Baltimore, it makes you wonder if you’ll ever see an ‘under’ again. The Falcons led 10-0 after two quarters and 13-7 heading into the fourth before the two teams combined for 27 points. Atlanta won 26-21 and the 47 points jumped ‘over’ the closing number of 44.
There are four teams on bye this week with Green Bay, Oakland, New Orleans and San Diego catching rest, which leaves us with 13 total opportunities.
Home-Away Tendencies
With everybody playing half of their 16 games, we’re starting to see some nice trends develop for clubs at home and on the road. Let’s take a closer look.
New York Jets: Rex Ryan’s team has watched the ‘over’ go 6-2 on the season, which includes a 4-0 mark on the road. New York heads to Cleveland this Sunday with an offense that has averaged 29 points per game on the road.
Arizona: The Cardinals have also seen six of their first eight games go ‘over’ and all three of the games at home have been ‘over’ winners too. Seattle heads to town and both these teams have had a knack of scoring defensive and special teams touchdowns, which help ‘over’ tickets. The total was hovering around 40 points, but has jumped up to 42 at some outfits.
Miami: The Dolphins have lost all three of their home games and all three have gone ‘over’ this season. The quarterback switch to Chad Pennington might keep things under control against Tennessee this weekend, but the Fins have also allowed 31, 41 and 23 in those home setbacks. And in case you’re wondering, the Titans have put up 25-plus in all four of their road affairs this season.
Cincinnati: The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the Bengals’ road tilts this season, due to a defense that has surrendered 26.8 PPG in those affairs. The only decent showing the unit had was back in a win at Carolina (20-7), and that’s because they had a rookie quarterback behind center. This week, Cincinnati faces Indianapolis and some guy named Peyton Manning.
Divisional Trends – Quick Hitters
Houston-Jacksonville: The ‘over’ is on a 4-2 roll in the last six between these two. Also, Houston (5-3) and Jacksonville (6-2) have both been ‘over’ teams but this week’s total (49.5) is the highest on the board.
Minnesota-Chicago: Even though most would believe that this NFC North matchup is a defensive battle, the ‘over’ has gone 6-3-1 in the last 10 encounters.
Carolina-Tampa Bay: The Bucs beat the Panthers 20-7 in Week 2, and the ‘under’ was never in doubt. Carolina has busted 20 points once all year, which is why you have a total of 37.
Kansas City-Denver: Five of the last six in this series have flown ‘over’ the total, including a pair of shootouts (44-24, 44-13) last season.
St. Louis-San Francisco: The ‘under’ has been the clear-cut look here, with seven of the last eight failing to eclipse the closing number. The Rams put up a total of six points in two outings against San Francisco last season.
Seattle-Arizona: This pair played a few weeks ago as the Seahawks captured a 22-10 home win over the Cardinals. The 32 points never threatened the closing number (40.5) and it’s hard to see these backup quarterbacks doing the same, but fans in Arizona (see above) have witnessed some high-scoring affairs so far.
Dallas-N.Y. Giants: New York held off Dallas 41-35 in a MNF affair on Oct. 25. The game went ‘over’ easily and the oddsmakers are expecting more of the same with another 45-point total posted this week. Four of the last five in this series have been ‘over’ winners.
Philadelphia-Washington: (See below)
Under the Lights
Washington and Philadelphia renew their rivalry on Monday when the pair meets for the second time this season. Donovan McNabb returned to his former digs in a Redskins uniform on Oct. 13 as his teammates escaped with a 17-12 win. Even though the closing number (44) was never threatened, it looked like it could’ve been after Washington jumped out to a 14-0 lead after one and held a 17-6 lead at the break. After Philadelphia QB Michael Vick went down with a rib injury, backup Kevin Kolb managed to put up nine points the rest of the way.
Vick is ready to go this week and he’s playing with a ton of confidence these days, yet the total is a couple points lower at 42. Washington is rested off the bye week, but the offense (19.4 PPG) has looked shaky at times this season. They did put up 27 and 24 against the Texans and Colts respectively in D.C. and some pundits would argue that the Eagles defense isn’t that strong this season and comparable to those units. Philadelphia has actually played well on the road from an offensive standpoint, posting 35, 28, 27 and 19. And the aforementioned defense we talked about, has given up 24-plus in three of those affairs, including 30-plus twice.
Including the earlier matchup this season, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4-1 in the last 10 encounters.
Fearless Predictions
Last Monday we hit the system play on the ‘over’ between the Steelers and Bengals, and we urge you to stay abreast with it as the season progresses. By drilling the Best Bet last week, we now stand at 4-3 (+70) on the year with the top plays. No Three-Team Teaser play last weekend but that ledger is still up too (2-1, +100). On the season, the bankroll (+170) is building and we’re looking to keep it going again here.
Best Over: Arizona-Seattle 41.5
Best Under: Dallas-New York Giants 45.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under Dallas-New York Giants 54.5
Under St. Louis-San Francisco 47
Over Arizona-Seattle 32.5
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NFL Week 10's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By SCOTT COOLEY
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (+1, 43)
Randy Moss vs. Dolphins secondary
With a stud like Chris Johnson in the backfield, the Titans haven’t needed much of a passing game. But their opponent this week, along with the acquisition of a future Hall of Fame receiver, may dictate a few more deep balls.
Miami has allowed a minimum of 260 passing yards in three of its last four games. Opposing quarterbacks have posted two-touchdown performances in three straight games against the Dolphins and the secondary has surrendered 12 scores through the air this season against just five interceptions.
Tony Sparano felt his team needed a change in that unit so Miami cut Jason Allen, who had started the first seven games this year, and picked up veteran Al Harris after Green Bay let him go.
Whichever Titans quarterback is under center this weekend, you can bet he will be looking for Randy Moss downfield. In his last six games versus the Dolphins, Moss has hauled in nine touchdown grabs and averaged 89.2 yards per outing. Against Miami last year, Vince Young tossed three scores with 264 passing yards.
Detroit Lions at Buffalo Bills (-3, 44.5)
Lions pass defense vs. Bills spread offense
Detroit gives up more than 230 passing yards per game which ranks 22nd in the NFL. The Lions allowed Mark Sanchez to throw for a gaudy 336 yards during last Sunday’s loss.
It’s clear that Chan Gailey isn’t going to get away from the spread offense in Buffalo. Over their last four outings, the Bills have thrown the ball 172 times and run it just 106 times. That included a 51-18 pass-run ratio last week versus Chicago.
Ryan Fitzpatrick has certainly provided the “spark” Gailey was looking for and the Harvard grad isn’t afraid to sling it around. In six starts this season, Fitzpatrick is averaging nearly 250 passing yards and 2.2 touchdowns per contest. He has a legitimate go-to guy now in Steve Johnson who has six scores in the last six games.
New York Jets at Cleveland Browns (+3, 37.5)
Jets defense vs. Browns offense
The Browns have pulled off miraculous wins the past two weeks with gadget plays and hard-nosed running by Peyton Hillis.
The sledding this weekend will be much tougher against a New York defense that ranks third in scoring defense and fourth in rush defense. The Jets have only allowed one opponent this season to eclipse the 20-point mark and that came against Miami in Week 3.
The best way for the Browns to move the chains Sunday is to throw the ball with their rookie signal caller. Cleveland has thrown just six touchdown passes all season and ranks 28th in pass attempts. Despite two 30-point outbursts the last two games, the Browns are still 25th in the NFL in scoring (19.0 ppg) and yardage (306.0 ypg).
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 37)
Panthers skill positions vs. NFL defense
Tampa Bay has a young and aggressive defense that has produced 18 takeaways this season including 14 interceptions. Defending the run has been a problem for this unit but there might not be much of a challenge against an NCAA-caliber Carolina team Sunday.
Rookie Jimmy Clausen will be starting under center and appearing in his seventh game this season. He carries a 48.0 passer rating, and in relief of Matt Moore last week completed 8 of his 18 pass attempts for 47 yards and an interception. Clausen’s small stature limits his vision over the offensive and defensive lines.
The Panthers will be without DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart for this contest. The team’s third-string tailback, Tyrell Sutton, is also expected to miss the game because of injury. That leaves second-year player Mike Goodson to carry the backfield load.
And to compound matters for this offense that ranks last in the league in scoring (11.0 ppg) and yardage (244.4 ypg), its best playmaker is just going through the motions. Steve Smith and a few other veterans appear as if they have cashed in their chips for the season.
Tips and Trends
Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins
TITANS: (-1, O/U 43) Tennessee has made headlines with the addition of WR Randy Moss. The Titans are 5-3 SU this season, with each loss being a 1 possession loss. With the addition of Moss, this Titans offense becomes that much more dynamic. Tennessee is 3-2 ATS as the listed favorite this season. RB Chris Johnson is hoping that teams will start to respect their passing game, which would open up some holes for him. Johnson has rushed for 721 YDS and 8 TD's this season. When WR Kenny Britt gets healthy, this offense will be filled with game breakers. The Titans are only allowing opponents to score 18.8 PPG this year, 9th best in the NFL. Tennessee has 13 INT's this year, 3rd best in the league. This will be the 4th time in 5 games that the Titans have played on the road. The Titans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November. Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. The Titans are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the AFC. Tennessee is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Titans are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-2 last 9 games played on grass.
Key Injuries - QB Vince Young (achilles) is probable.
Projected Score: 24
DOLPHINS: Miami has made a QB switch today, as they are going to QB Chad Pennington. Pennington is a great presence and overall leader of a team, that simply won't beat himself. One can imagine that the Dolphins will look to run the ball even more, and to focus on the short passing game as a result. The Dolphins are 0-3 SU on the road this year, so the pressure is mounting on them to get it done. Miami is 4-4 SU and 5-3 ATS overall this season. The Dolphins are scoring just 17.9 PPG this season, 5th worst in the NFL. Miami has only played 1 home game since October 4th, so the fans will be excited for tonight's contest. Miami lost last year to the Titans in OT, so revenge is on their minds. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. Miami is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following an ATS loss. The Dolphins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played in November.
Dolphins are 9-2 ATS last 11 games as an underdog.
Over is 10-4 last 14 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - DB Reshad Jones (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 17
New England Patriots at Pittsburgh Steelers
PATRIOTS: New England is coming off their worst performance of the season, a classic example of looking ahead. Certainly the Patriots took the Browns for granted, and they paid the price. Despite that loss, New England is still 6-2 SU. The Patriots are 4-3-1 ATS on the year, including 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. New England has played 2 games as the listed underdog this year, and won ultimately won each game SU. The Patriots are also playing on the road for the 2nd consecutive week, the first time that's happened this season. New England is averaging 27.4 PPG this season, 2nd best in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is the unquestioned leader of this offense. Brady has thrown for more than 1,800 YDS and 14 TD's this season. Where the Patriots struggle the most is on defense. New England is allowing opponents 23.5 PPG and 386.5 YPG this season. This will only be the 3rd time in 6 seasons that these two proud franchises have met. The Patriots are 3-1-2 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog. New England is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record. New England is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in November.
Patriots are 1-4 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Key Injuries - S Patrick Chung (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
STEELERS: (-4.5, O/U 45) Pittsburgh is coming off a Monday Night win on the road in Cincinnati. The Steelers are working on a short week in yet another primetime setting. Pittsburgh has plenty of experience, as this is a veteran team accustomed to the bright lights. The Steelers are 2-2 ATS this season as a single digit favorite. The Pittsburgh fans will be excited to see their team in action, considering they've been on the road for their past 3 contests. This Steelers offense is starting to heat up as they get all their players accustomed to each other. QB Ben Roethlisberger leads an offense that is averaging 21.8 PPG this year. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 700 YDS and 7 TD's this season. Pittsburgh is allowing an NFL low 15.8 PPG this season. Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU this season, including 2-1 SU at home. The Steelers are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 PTS. Pittsburgh is 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass. The Steelers are 2-5-1 ATS against a team with a winning record. Pittsburgh is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game. Pittsburgh is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home favorite.
Steelers are 5-2 ATS last 7 games played in November.
Over is 5-2 last 7 games when playing on a Sunday following a Monday night game.
Key Injuries - TE Heath Miller (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)