NFL News and Notes Sunday 11/15

NFL Week 10 - Betting Desperate Teams
By Doug Upstone

This week starts the second half of the season and already certain teams have games that could send their year one way or another. Currently, .500 teams Jacksonville and the Jets have seven teams ahead of them in the AFC, which means the loser of this contest could have dicey situation making the playoffs. Cincinnati is tied with Pittsburgh, but key injuries are mounting, an upset effort keeps mojo moving forward. Carolina played well at New Orleans, but a loss to Atlanta makes them 3-6, looking at 6-1 finish for playoff redemption. Both Philadelphia and San Diego are chasing division leaders and will want to keep pace, however somebody loses. Green Bays season starting to go the way of Richard Heene (Balloon Dad) and needs upset of Dallas to turn year around.

Jacksonville at New York Jets

The Jets last played two weeks ago and held the Dolphins to just 104 yards of total offense. That incredible defensive performance is little consolation to head coach Rex Ryan however, as his team lost 30-25, to fall back to 4-4. During the bye week, Ryan described his feeling as sick about the first half, figuring his team was better suited for 6-2. As a result, he gave his players six days off to rest up for this contest with Jacksonville. New York (4-4 ATS) has done well coming out of the bye, going 6-1 SU and 7-0 ATS in their last seven post-bye week games. They are also 12-1 UNDER the total in post-bye week games since 1997. However, the Jaguars (3-5 ATS) have the edge in the recent matchups, going 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS. Coach Jack Del Rios team is also 4-4 after beating Kansas City.

Keys to the Game

Jacksonville went back to 4-3 defense after Tennessee racked up 305 yards on the ground against 3-4 scheme. This becomes important now, since the Jets lead the NFL in rushing at 177.6 yards per game. This is huge key on the road, since that means Mark Sanchez would have to beat them with the pass. Sanchez has coughed up eight fumbles, thus applying pressure and getting him rattled is tantamount. The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS as underdog vs. opponent off a favorite loss and David Garrard has to make wise choices against talented New York secondary and cannot become incogitant.

Coach Ryan hopes the extra week helped clear Sanchezs boggled brain and he returns as sharp as he started the year. The former USC star should benefit of not seeing extreme pressure, as the Jags are dead last in the NFL in sacks with eight. The defenses top priority is containing Maurice Jones-Drew, who has more moves than a street dancer. Keep Mr. Hyphen in check and attack Garrard, who like Sanchez will leave the pigskin on the field. The Flyboys are 13-2 ATS at the Meadowlands off a home loss.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

The AFC North race figures to be a slugfest the rest of the way, with all three top teams within striking distance of one another. The winners of the head-to-head battles figure to gain the upper hand. Prior to the first meeting of 2009 between these teams, the winner in this series was usually Pittsburgh (6-2, 5-3 ATS), who had gone 26-9 SU and 22-12 ATS vs. Cincy since 1992. The Bengals turned the tables though in Week 3, pulling out a 23-20 upset at home in the final minute as a three-point underdog. The Steelers will look to avenge that defeat and extend a 10-game home winning streak on Sunday. They are 7-3 ATS in that span, allowing just 14.1 points per game. The Bengals (6-2, 5-3 ATS) are off the home win over Baltimore, and boast 12-2 ATS record after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half under Marvin Lewis.

Keys to the Game

Cincinnati lost receiver Chris Henry who was important cog in Bengals passing game. This places greater emphasis in RB Cedric Benson who is quickly becoming a complete back with ability to do everything. The Bengals are tied for seventh is sacks at 21 and the D-Line has to disrupt Ben Roethlisberger, while maintaining lane control so he doesnt leave the pocket. Its a misconception at the moment that the Steelers are punishing offense. Their passing game ranks 5th, with the running game a pedestrian 15th. Cincy should play Cover 3 defense and have secondary break on balls instead of outside man-up coverage. An upset allows Bengals time to find replacements for injured and gains what amounts to two-game lead in division. Cincy is on 7-0 ATS run as dog.

Pittsburgh has not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 30 straight games including the playoffs, no reason to figure theyll concede one in this spot. Lock up Benson and dont let him matter in the passing game. The Steelers defense was not clicking in Week 3 defeat to Bengals, it is now. Attack Carson Palmer, who just lost short-crossing route companion Henry, make him look elsewhere, with potential miscues to follow. Pitt is 30-11 ATS playing against teams with .750 or higher win percentage and will want to establish Rashard Mendenhall, whose 5.7 yards per carry in last five games is second only to Titans Chris Johnson (6.7).

Atlanta at Carolina

With New Orleans running away from the rest of the NFC South, Atlanta and Carolina have had to readjust their goals for 2009. The Falcons (6-2 ATS) are still in the wild card picture at 5-3, but face a difficult two-game road swing starting with this matchup. Carolina is 3-5 after losing to the Saints, but has a second half schedule loaded with five home games. That may or may not be of benefit, as the Panthers (3-5 ATS) have yet to cover a spread at home, with 1-2 SU & 0-3 ATS record. This will be Carolinas first divisional home game of 2009, after going 3-0 ATS in that scenario a year ago. This will be a revenge spot for the Panthers and they are 20-8 ATS avenging a same season loss. Including 28-20 win in Week 2, Atlanta holds a 16-7 SU and 14-8-1 ATS edge vs. Carolina since 1998.

Keys to the Game

This division conflict also matters to Atlanta a great deal, as with a win they are no worse than top NFC wild card team moving forward. Matt Ryan is in the first slump of his young career. Hes had two games passing under 175 yards in last three and the other one he completed less than 50 percent of attempts. His team needs him particularly on the division road. The Carolina running has found its stride the last several weeks and the Birds are 26th against the run. The defensive line has to create penetration, with linebackers staying clean to make tackles. RB Michael Turner has regained his form with 317 yards rushing in last two games. Keep him busy and the turf-playing Falcons fly to 15-6 ATS on real grass.

Coach John Fox, time to geek it up. It mattered when Jake Delhomme threw four picks against Philadelphia in opener. This team is in serious need of attitude adjustment. Playing conservative and losing is worse than going all out to get the ball to Steve Smith 10 or more times. The running game will be even more dangerous if Atlanta understands you will throw the ball down the field to Smith and others. On defense, run more games up front; force your players to give more (they can) and go after Falcons with passion, something missing all season. The Panthers 20-7 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points, make it happen.

Philadelphia at San Diego

One week after getting help from San Diego, the Eagles face the Chargers, some 3000 miles across the country. Philadelphia (5-3 ATS) wasnt able to fully capitalize on the Giants falling, losing to Dallas and surrendering the NFC East lead. Now, at 5-3, the schedule really turns on HC Andy Reids team, with four road games in the next five weeks, all against playoff contending teams. Fortunately, Philly is 33-15 ATS as a road underdog under Reid, and 30-17 ATS vs. good offensive teams gaining 350 yards per game or more. This will be Reids first ever trip to San Diego with the Eagles. The Chargers (3-5 ATS) are also 5-3 after last weeks one-point win in New York, and face another date with Denver following this tilt. Under Norv Turner, they are 3-6 ATS vs. the NFC, 2-2 SU and ATS at home.

Keys to the Game

For coach Reids presumed genius on offense, hes had a couple stinky showings this season. Last week, he earned Fs in trying to get the ball to his most threatening weapon DeSean Jackson, who had two catches for 29 yards. Run receiver screens, put him motion, just finds ways for Jackson to touch the ball, hes a quick six waiting to happen. The San Diego run defense has improved the last month, however is still 26th overall. Test the middle with running game. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last three seasons, in part due to fast starts. This is a team with deficiencies in tight games (1-8-1 SU in their past 10 games decided by seven points or less, 1-9 ATS) and has to score early and keep adding.

It is not a coincidence that the improved health of Shawne Merriman has helped the defense. In their last four games, the San Diego defense has surrendered 144.5 yards per game via the pass (Oakland helped a great deal), best in the NFL, jumping them to fourth overall. That matter against Philadelphia since the Chargers are stellar at the corners and improving at safety and they have benefitted with increased pressure on opposing QBs. This game is worth viewing just because the Eagles bring continual blitzes and Philip Rivers throws the deepest routes in the league. Who wins this battle could decide winner. Bolts feed on emotion and are 12-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins since 2007.

Dallas at Green Bay

When Brett Favre was with the Packers, they struggled vs. the Cowboys in Dallas. At home though, it was a much different story. In fact, in the overall series, home teams owned a 9-0 SU and ATS edge from 1994 to 2007. Still, the home opportunities were few and far between for Green Bay. Now, with Aaron Rodgers at the helm, the 4-4 SU and ATS Packers will be looking to avenge a loss when they host Dallas for the second straight year. The Cowboys (5-3 ATS) won the 2008 game, 27-16, manhandling the Packers defensive front for 217 yards rushing. They are atop the NFC East at 6-2 after winning at Philly. Green Bay is 2-4 vs. NFC East foes under Mike McCarthy, while the Cowboys are 3-19 ATS in road games after covering the spread in three out of their last four games. Ten of the last 12 overall meetings between these teams went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game

If Dallas can win first down on defense, they are on their way to seventh win of the season. The Green Bay offensive line cant protect Rodgers and second year starter hangs on to the ball like its a good luck charm. The Green Bay run defense is ninth (91.1 YPG), but it is better when teams try to run wide. Pound away at the middle with Marion Barber, than work him and others outside. The Cowboys are 9-4 ATS as favorites and they will improve that record if they do better than .500 on possessions inside the red zone that leads to touchdowns and not field goals.

Barber is still recovering from quad injury and has lacked burst. Green Bays defense has to make him take a step east or west to reduce his effectiveness. Rodgers has to use his University of California education and start being smarter in releasing the ball quicker. The Dallas defense doesnt like being on the field, throw underneath stuff to move the chains and utilize Ryan Grant in the one-cut and drive running game. The Pack is 10-1 ATS in home games vs. teams outscoring opponents by six or more points per game in the second half of the season. They have two winnable games after this and will have extended rest before Monday home game against Baltimore. A win vs. Dallas could start three-game winning and who knows.

Week 10 NFL games

Jaguars (4-4) @ Jets (4-4)-- Gang Green lost four of last five games before the bye; they covered the game after their last seven byes. Jets are 0-3 when they allow more than 17 points; they're 2-3 as favorite, 1-2 at home. Jags are 1-3 on road, losing by 2-41-17 points; they're 3-2 as underdog, 2-2 on the road- Jags scored 17 or less points in their losses, 23+ in their wins. AFC East favorites are 7-2 vs spread, 5-1 at home. Jax ran ball for 166-217-173 yards in last three games. AFC South road teams are 7-4 vs spread in non-division games. Five of last seven Jaguar games stayed under total; three of last four Jet games went over. Last three Jet losses are all by five or less points.

Broncos (6-2) @ Redskins (2-6)-- Denver had everything go for it before bye, but scored one lone offensive TD on 21 drives in two games since, losing by 23-18 points. This is cross country trip on short week with San Diego rivalry game on deck for Denver. Dysfunctional Washington lost its last four games, scoring average of 10 ppg; only teams they've beaten this year are Rams/Bucs, two teams with one win each. NFC East underdogs are 1-3 vs spread in non-division games. Denver covered six of last nine road games; Skins are 0-10-1 vs spread in last 11 games vs AFC. Five of last seven Washington games stayed under the total.

Bengals (6-2) @ Steelers (6-2)-- Game for first place in AFC North, where the underdog is 5-1 vs spread in division games. Cincy won first meeting 23-20 at home, rallying from 13-3 halftime deficit to win in last minute- they held three of last four opponents to 14 or less points. Steelers won Monday night game in Denver, their fifth win in a row; they're 4-0 at home, winning by 3-4-13-10 points (1-3 as HF). Bengals lost last two visits here by 14-17 points; this is their first road game in five weeks. Odd stats: Steelers have allowed a TD on offense/special teams in their last six games, and Steeler opponents started 4 drives in Pittsburgh territory, but didn't score on any of the four.

Bills (3-5) @ Titans (2-6)-- Tennessee hasn't turned ball over (+6) in Young's two starts, winning both after 16-turnover 0-6 start with Collins at QB (-10). After scoring total of 43 points in four losses before their bye, Titans scored 30-34 in last two games, running ball for 305/152 yards. Bills won last two on road, allowing two TDs on 28 drives to Jets/Panthers, but they gave up 318 rushing yards to Jets (first team to win allowing that many rushing yards since 1944). AFC East underdogs are 2-7 vs spread in non-division games, 2-3 on road. AFC South home faves are 2-5. Last four Buffalo games stayed under total; five of last seven Titan games stayed under.

Lions (1-7) @ Vikings (7-1)-- Minnesota (-10) won first meeting 27-13 back in Week 2, as Vikings had 18-yard edge in field position, outscoring Lions 20-3 in second half. Lions lost last five visits here by average score of 26-14 (2-3 vs spread). Detroit is 0-4 on road, losing by 18-24-26-12 points (0-4 vs spread, three of four went over). Vikings are 3-0 at home, with no wins by more than seven points (1-2 as HF). Detroit lost field position in last seven games by an average of 14 yards; they scored four TDs on 42 drives over last four games. Five of last six Minnesota games went over. Favorite is 4-1 vs spread in NFC North games this year.

Saints (8-0) @ Rams (1-7)-- New Orleans defense scored five TDs in last five games, as if their offense wasn't potent enough. Saints scored 39.8 ppg in last four games; they're 3-0 on road this year, winning by 26-20-12 points. Saints covered 10 of last 13 as road favorite; Rams are 3-7 vs spread as double digit dog; they're 0-3 at home this year, losing by 19-28-36 points, but they did get first win in last game, at Detroit. St Louis scored just four TDs on their last 50 drives, but offensive line is getting better- Rams ran ball for 155-150 yards in last two games. NFC South favorites are 9-2 vs spread, 3-0 out of division; NFC West home dogs are 0-4.

Falcons (5-3) @ Panthers (3-5)-- Atlanta (-6) beat Carolina 28-20 in Week 2, as Panthers started six of nine drives 80+ yards from end zone; Falcons had an 11-yard edge in field position, but Carolina outgained them 440-371 for game. Falcons lost three of four road games, winning 45-10 at SF. Teams split their last four meetings here, with average total in those games 30.5. Panthers lost two of three home games, beating Redskins 20-17 in game they were down at half, 10-2. Carolina is 3-2 in last five games, and had 14-0 lead at Saints last week, so they're playing better of late. Home teams are 1-3 in NFC Ssouth division games. Four of last five Falcon games went over total.

Buccaneers (1-7) @ Dolphins (3-5)-- Miami is 3-2 in last five games, but only one of wins is by more than five points; they're favored for first time in 2009. Fish scored 30+ points in four of last five games (15 TDs on last 53 drives, with only six FG tries). Bucs got first win last week, but used special teams, turnovers to score 24 points in last 12:54 of game- they allowed average of 181 rushing yards over last three games. Miami is just 3-16 vs spread as home fave against non-divisional opponent. NFC South underdogs are 4-9 outside their division, 3-5 on road. AFC East favorites are 7-2, 5-1 at home. Four of the last five Miami games went over total, as did three of Bucs' last four games.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Raiders (2-6)-- Oakland (+3) won 13-10 at Arrowhead back in Week 2, despite being outgained 409-166; they were +2 in turnovers, held the Chiefs without TD in two red zone trips. Raiders scored total of 58 points in last seven games; they're 0-6 when they allow more than 10 points. Chiefs are 2-2 as road dog, with only win at Washington; new WR Chambers scored two TDs in last 3:00 for late cover at Jacksonville last week, giving Cassel hope he has a go-to receiver. Home side is 1-5 vs spread in AFC West games this year. Five of last seven Oakland games stayed under total; over is 4-1-1 in Chiefs' last six games. In last six games, Raiders were outscored 52-9 in second half.

Seahawks (3-5) @ Cardinals (5-3)-- Arizona (+3) won 27-3 at Seattle in Week 6, grabbing 14-0 lead before Hasselbeck ever took field; Cardinals outgained Seahawks 344-128, sacked QB five times. Seattle lost last three visits here by 6-3-13 points. Redbirds have been a lot better on road this year, losing three of four at home, blowing 21-0 halftime lead in only home win. NFC West home favorites are 3-2 vs spread. Seattle is 2-5 in last seven games, rallying to beat Lions at home last week, after trailing 17-0; they're 0-3 on road, with losses by 13-17-21 points. In last three games, Seattle has run ball total of 51 times for 148 yards. Cardinals won four of five games since their bye.

Eagles (5-3) @ Chargers (5-3)-- San Diego won last three games, scoring 27.3 ppg, with Rivers leading last minute drive to win at Swamp last week; Bolts are 2-2 at home; they allowed 31-38-34 points in their losses, average of 15.2 ppg in their wins. Philly just played all three NFC East rivals; they're 2-1 on road, winning at Panthers/Redskins, with an upset loss in Oakland. Philly has only two TDs on last six red zone drives, over last four games; Chargers have six TDs on last seven red zone drives. NFC East road teams are 5-6 vs spread out of their divsion, 1-2 as road dog; AFC West home favorites are 1-2. Six of eight Philly games went over total.

Cowboys (6-2) @ Packers (4-4)-- Slumping Green Bay allowed 38 points in each of last two games, losing at previously winless Bucs last week; they lost to Dallas last two years, by 10-11 points. Natives are restless in Cheesetown, as three of Pack's four wins are Lions-Rams-Browns. Cowboys won their last four games; they're 3-1 on road, losing at Denver, winning other three games by 13-6-4 points. Green Bay is -24 in sacks this year (37-13). Five of the last seven Packer games, three of last four Cowboy games went over total. NFC East favorites are 10-9 vs spread, 6-5 on road. NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 3-0 at home. Cowboys are in a Eagle/Redskin sandwich.

Patriots (6-2) @ Colts (8-0)-- Unbeaten home team only laying 3? Half of the Indy wins are by four or less points; opponents are 33-58 on 3rd down-- it is important to move chains, keep Manning off field and far away from end zone when he is on field. Patriots are 17-36 on 3rd down in last three games, but are 0-2 on road, losing at Jets/Broncos, with neutral field win over winless Bucs in London. Colts won four of last five series games since '05; they've allowed an average of 10.5 ppg in last six games overall (seven TDs/65 drives). Colts are 1-3 as home favorite, winning at home by 2-17-4-3 points. NFC East dogs are 2-7 vs spread, 2-3 on road.

Monday, November 16

Ravens (4-4) @ Browns (1-7)-- Hideous Cleveland likely to go back to Quinn at QB this week, after they scored total of 29 points in last four games (two TDs on last 43 drives). Browns (+13.5) got squashed 34-3 in Baltimore back in Week 3 (outgained 479-186), as Ravens averaged 8.9 ypp and had TO ratio of +3. Ravens lost four of last five games; they're 3-2 as favorite, with wins by 14-5-31-23 points. Three of last four Baltimore games, five of Browns' last seven games stayed under total. Ravens won here 37-27 LY, after losing three of previous four visits to this site. Underdogs are 5-1 vs spread in AFC North games this season, with Browns' loss in Baltimore the only setback

Total Talk - Week 10
By Chris David

Week 9 Recap

Another 13 NFL games are in the books and the outcomes were tight again, with the ‘under’ posting a 7-6 record in the ninth week. There were a few close calls that could’ve swayed the pendulum the other way and one bad beat that should never have happened. On the year, the ‘over’ stands at 67-62-1 (52%).

New Orleans stopped Carolina 30-20 in a high-scoring affair, but the total fell just short of the closing number (51.5). The Saints have been an ‘over’ machine at home and this one could’ve cashed if the Panthers showed up in the second half. Instead, they put up 3 points and they had three shots to score from the two-yard-line at the end of the game as well. Ouch.

The Patriots and Dolphins combined for 768 yards and 43 first downs, which resulted in nine scores. Unfortunately, the pair kicked five field goals, four coming from New England . The Pats earned a 27-17 decision but the 44 points fell ‘under’ the number (47). If you add four to one of those five kicks, the ‘over’ tickets cash.

While the first two were tough to stomach, the ultimate Bad Total Beat was the Chiefs-Jaguars battle. With Jacksonville leading 17-6 late in the fourth quarter, it appeared that Kansas City conceded another victory. The Chiefs punted with seven minutes left on the clock but the Jags got a big return back to the KC 21-yard line. Five plays later, MJD barrels in for a TD. The Chiefs get the ball back and are going with their hurry-up offense but it’s ineffective until Matt Cassel connects with his new teammate, Chris Chambers, on a 54-yard TD strike. Did we mention it was 3rd and 19? Now trailing 24-13, KC kicks the onside and recovers. Eight passes later, Cassel finds Chamber again and then they get the 2-point conversion too. The total closed at 41 ½ points and ‘under’ players probably aren’t too happy of me rehashing.

Looking ahead, we have 13 games this weekend since the Giants and Texans are the only clubs on bye. The 49ers edge the Bears 10-6 on Thursday, so the first game of the week went ‘under’ the number already.

Must-Win spots?

Since we’re kicking off the second-half of the season in Week 10, certain teams are already behind the 8-ball. If these clubs can’t get something going quickly in the final eight games, their postseason chances could be bleak. Assuming the teams and their coaches know this, most would expect a conservative style, right? Usually that means running the football, playing good defense and not making mistakes. If all three of those things happen, more often than not you’re getting a low-scoring affair, which translates into ‘under’ tickets. Below are some clubs with their backs up against the wall.

Jacksonville (4-4) at N.Y. Jets (4-4): Did you know that Jacksonville has been outscored this year, yet they’re still sitting at .500? Did you also know that the Jags have been held to 13 points or less in three of their four road games this year? The Jets’ defense has given up 26 points in the last three games and they should be ready to go after the bye week. The total has gone 2-2 at Giants Stadium this year.

Denver (6-2) at Washington: We feel the Broncos are in a must-win spot because of their schedule, which features upcoming games versus the Chargers and Giants at home before road tests at the Chiefs and Colts. Denver can’t score at all and that was evident in Monday’s 28-10 loss to Pittsburgh , which saw the offense put up three points. The Redskins put defense first because the play-calling is horrendous and Jason Campbell can’t do squat either. The ‘over/under’ is sitting around 37, which tells you a lot.

Tampa Bay at Miami (3-5): This total (43) is tough to gauge because both the Dolphins and Bucs have seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 in their first eight. Still, you have two rookie QB going head-to-head, which can be good or bad. Tampa ’s season was over when they got rid of Gruden so this game means so much more for Miami , and the schedule sets up nicely for the Fins. You would think head coach Tony Sparano will look to ground-and-pound the Bucs and finally get a good effort from his defense, which has given up 27, 46, 25 and 27 in the last four.

Seattle (3-5) at Arizona (5-3)

More on this game below…

Dallas at Green Bay (4-4)

The Packers could make it into the NFC playoffs with a 9-7 record but it winning the division from Minnesota (7-1) would be impossible with a loss here today. Green Bay gets Dallas this week, then San Francisco at home before a Thanksgiving affair at Detroit. Three straight wins and a 7-4 record looks doable but the defense needs to step up and it hasn’t all year. Four times the team has surrendered 30-plus and the other four teams the went under that mark couldn’t score in a brothel with a fistful of money. The number (47.5) is high and Packer backers know their team can’t win in a shootout.

Second Go ‘Round

Kansas City at Oakland: Will this be the meeting the Chiefs and Raiders go ‘over’ the number? Eight of the last nine in this series has gone ‘under’ the total with the lone ‘over’ happening on Nov. 25, 2007 when Oakland escaped Kansas City with a 20-17 win. The number on that game was 34.5. For this Sunday, it’s the lowest on the board at 36.5. The Raiders or Chiefs have both had trouble throwing the football and they haven’t had much success running either this year. KC is the only team in the league not to have a rushing touchdown and they just cut their RB (Larry Johnson). Anything can happen in the NFL but it would be surprising to see one of these two bust a 20-spot in this one.

Seattle at Arizona: In the previous four seasons, the Cardinals and Seahawks have always seen at least one game go ‘over’ the total. In the first meeting on Oct. 18, the Cardinals blasted the Seahawks 27-3 and the combined 30 points never threatened the closing total of 46. The total for this week (46.5) is comparable and while Arizona has been known to put up points, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 at home. The Seahawks defense has given up 23, 34 and 38 on the road this year, which has produced a 2-1 ‘over’ mark. The last four games between the two teams in the desert have gone ‘over’ the number. Dare we say five?

UNDER the Lights -- AGAIN?

We expected last week’s MFN battle between Pittsburgh and Denver to be defensive oriented and it was. Even though a free 14 points were tossed on the board courtesy of defensive touchdowns, the combined 38 points fell short of the 41 ½-point closing total.

The ‘over’ on MNF now stand at 8-2 (80%) on the year and this week’s matchup between the Ravens and Browns from Cleveland features the second lowest total we’ve seen all year in the primetime slot.

Brady Quinn will get the start for Cleveland, who is averaging 9.8 PPG, tied for second worst in the league. Baltimore (25.8 PPG) does have the ability to score but it was handcuffed to seven points in Cincinnati last weekend. The Browns have given up 34, 23 and 31 in their three games at home this year.

Baltimore pasted Cleveland 34-3 at home on Sept. 27, which helped the ‘under’ cash tickets -- barely. Prior to this game, the ‘over’ was on a 4-0-1 run in the head-to-head meetings.

Fearless Predictions

It’s been a back and forth season and we’re getting closer each week. On the season, the Best Bets are 9-7 (+130) but the teasers have absolutely burned the bankroll with a 2-6 (-400) record. Based on one-unit plays, we’re down $270 but a sweep would get us into the BLACK. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Lions-Vikings 47

Teams playing with rest this year have lit up the scoreboard and we expect Minnesota to do so in this spot on Sunday. The Vikings have seen all three of their home games go ‘over’ plus the Lions’ defense has been horrendous on the road (37.8 PPG). The Vikings beat the Lions 27-13 in Week 2 on the road and that game was slow from the start. Expect a similar outcome but with a lot more points.

Best Under: Buccaneers-Dolphins 43

This number is just too high for a pair of inconsistent offenses that are led by rookie quarterbacks. The Dolphins need this game and we expect the defense to tighten up at home. Look for a running focus from them and watch the clock tick away all day. The Bucs’ offense has put up 13, 14, and 7 in their last three games outside Tampa. Miami has played in a lot of games that featured defensive and special team TDs. Barring another barrage from those units, this one stays ‘under’ easily.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over 38 Lions-Vikings
Over 40 Patriots-Colts
Under 52 Bucs-Dolphins

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Late Game Tips
By Judd Hall

I’m sure there are more than a few of you fine folks out there that are waiting to watch the Patriots and Colts on Sunday Night Football. But there is plenty of action to whet your appetite on the gridiron. There are two late games in specific that can potentially alter the playoff chase. Let’s take a look.

Eagles at Chargers

Before last Sunday’s game with the Cowboys, Philadelphia (5-3 straight up, against the spread) was getting a lot of respect from the public. After losing 20-16 to Dallas as three-point home favorites, however, has made a lot of people wonder if the Eagles are for real.

The thing people should be asking is if the Eagles will remember how to run the ball. Philly gained just 89 yards on the ground last week against the ‘Boys. This is a unit that averages 111.3 rushing yards per game this season. That ineffective ground game played a direct role in the fact that Philadelphia converted just four of its 12 third-downs last week.

To be fair to Philly, they most likely would have had better luck at keeping drives alive with Brian Westbrook in the backfield. Westbrook has sat out the last two games due to a concussion. Current reports state that he practiced on Friday afternoon and will be in the lineup.

Will Westbrook’s availability play a factor in the line for this game? Most betting shops have installed the Chargers as 1 ½-point home favorites against Philly with a total of 47. “Yes, right now his status is listed as questionable. If he indeed plays, you can count on the odds changing to a pick ‘em,” says betED’s Randy Scott.

That line is a lot closer than what most people expected in part to how San Diego (5-3 SU, 3-5 ATS) finished its game in the Meadowlands. The Chargers appeared to be dead to rights when Philip Rivers was picked off deep in their own territory by New York while down 17-14 with just over three minutes to go. The Giants were only able to get three-points on that pick, leaving the door wide open for the Bolts. Rivers took advantage of a soft New York defense by completing six of eight passes, culminating in an 18-yard touchdown strike to Vincent Jackson to win 21-20.

The Chargers enter the second half of their season with a three-game winning streak, but there are some things to consider. First of all, San Diego is just 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS at Qualcomm Stadium this year. Philadelphia is 2-1 SU and ATS on the road this season.

The home team has had some great success in the last seven meetings, as evidenced by going to 6-1 SU but just 3-3-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 5-2 during that time.

A fun little trend to know about is the Eagles are 3-4 SU and 5-2 ATS when playing as a road team coming off of a loss to an NFC East opponent since 2000.

Cowboys at Packers

Things are going pretty well in Dallas (6-2 SU, ATS) right now. The Cowboys have won four straight matches, covering in three of them. Their most recent triumph came against Philly last week in a 20-16 decision. Now all of the ‘Boys are sitting alone at the top of the NFC East.

A big part of the Cowboys’ success has been Tony Romo. The Dallas signal caller completed 21 of his 34 passes for 307 yards and a touchdown against the Eagles last week. Over his last four starts, Romo has connected on 62.4 percent of his passes for 1,225 yards and has a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 9:1.

As good as Dallas’ offense has been, its defense has showed that it can help keep the team in games. The Cowboys’ stopping unit is allowing just 19.0 points per game this season to rank seventh in the NFL. That’s a surprising stat considering this team is allowing the opposition to score on 58.8 percent of their trips to the red zone; only six other clubs have given up more red zone scores that the Cowboys.

Luckily for the ‘Boys they’re facing a team that is doing its best John Denver impression with Green Bay (4-4 SU, ATS). It has been a rough November for the Packers as they’ve lost both games, both SU and ATS. You can’t blame Aaron Rodgers for the woes. The Cal product has completed 23 of his last 76 passes for 553 yards and five touchdowns. Unfortunately his offensive line has surrendered 12 sacks in the past two weeks. That won’t cut it against a defense like Dallas, which has 20 sacks on the season.

Most sportsbooks have installed the Cowboys as three-point road favorites with a total of 48. That line might seem a little small to some, but betED’s Randy Scott explains that the Pack have a special advantage. “The Packers always get more respect playing in Lambeau than most teams playing at home. And they are definitely having trouble protecting their QB. But this line represents a better performance from the Packers at home, it's up to the bettors to believe it or not. This line is already taking heavy action on the favorite. If it stays that way, then it will move up.”

Green Bay may not be all that great a wager on the frozen tundra right now since they’re 2-2 SU and ATS. Plus, Dallas is 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS in its four road tests of 2009.

This series has been extremely one-side over the years as the Cowboys are 8-2 SU and ATS since 1994. Bettors have been able to expect big scores out of these two clubs when they meet as the ‘over’ is 8-2 during that stretch.

I mentioned earlier that the Packers have lost both of their games this month SU and ATS. Well, when they have suffered back-to-back ATS setbacks, they are 3-5 SU and 5-2-1 ATS.

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Jacksonville (4-4, 3-5 ATS) at N.Y. Jets (4-4 SU and ATS)

The slumping Jets look to get their season back on track when they welcome the Jaguars to the Meadowlands.

New York, coming off its bye, fell to Miami for the second time this year in a 30-25 setback two Sundays ago as a 3½-point home favorite, dropping to 1-4 SU and ATS in its last five games after a 3-0 SU and ATS start. The Jets still boast the NFL’s No. 1 rushing game, at a whopping 177.6 ypg, but the passing game is 27th (164.5 ypg). Defensively, New York is a solid second in total yards allowed (273.4 ypg) and fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg).

Jacksonville held off Kansas City 24-21 Sunday, but fell short of covering as a seven-point home chalk in suffering its fourth straight ATS setback. The Jags are averaging 361 ypg, good for ninth in the league, but they are scoring just 19.6 ppg, which stands 21st. Meanwhile, they are giving up 362 ypg (23rd) and 24.8 ppg (24th).

Jacksonville is on a 5-0 ATS tear (4-1 SU) in this rivalry, including a 41-0 rout as a seven-point home favorite in October 2006, the most recent meeting.

Along with their current 1-4 ATS slide, the Jets are stuck in pointspread ruts of 2-5 at home, 2-8 laying points, 1-5 as a home chalk, 1-6 after a SU loss and 1-6 after a non-cover. However, they are on a 7-0 ATS tear following the bye week. The SU winner has also cashed in New York’s last 10 games. The Jaguars are on several negative ATS streaks, including 2-5 on the road, 3-8 against AFC opponents, 0-4 in November and 4-10 outside the AFC South.

The under is 9-1 in New York’s last 10 starts after the bye, but the over for the Jets is on stretches of 5-0-1 in November, 6-2 with New York a home favorite and 4-1 against the AFC. The over is 5-2 in Jacksonville’s last seven overall and 7-2-2 in its last nine November outings, but the Jags are on “under” runs of 6-1 on the highway, 9-3 getting points and 7-1 as a road pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. JETS

Denver (6-2 SU and ATS) at Washington (2-6 SU and ATS)

The Broncos, aiming to rebound from a two-game skid, head to the East Coast for a non-conference contest with the dismal Redskins at FedEx Field.

Denver got drubbed Monday night by Pittsburgh 28-10 as a three-point home pup, losing and failing to cover in blowout fashion for the second straight week, following a 30-7 loss at Baltimore. The Broncos’ offense sits at 19th in total yards (331.8 ypg) and 22nd in scoring at just 18.8 ppg, totaling just 10 points the past two weeks as it failed to find the end zone. Denver is still third in both yards allowed (280.2 ypg) and points allowed (15.5 ppg), despite getting outscored 58-17 the past two weeks.

Washington lost to Atlanta 31-17 Sunday as a nine-point road ‘dog, its fourth consecutive SU defeat and third straight ATS setback. The Redskins haven’t scored more than 17 points all season, averaging just 14.1 ppg (29th), hindered greatly by a minus-9 turnover margin, also 29th in the league. Washington will be without RB Clinton Portis this week (concussion).

These teams have met just twice this decade in regular-season play, with Washington going 2-0 ATS (1-1 SU). Most recently, Denver won 21-19 in October 2005, with the Redskins cashing as a seven-point road pup. Also, the road team is on a 4-0 ATS run in this rivalry.

Although the Broncos are 6-2 ATS this year and 6-3 ATS in their last nine roadies, they remain on a bundle of pointspread slides, including 6-20-1 as a chalk, 2-14 laying 3½ to 10 points, 3-13-1 against losing teams, 2-6 after a SU loss and 7-21 after a non-cover. The SU winner has covered in 11 straight for Denver. Like the Broncs, the Redskins are on ATS plunges of 3-11-2 overall, 0-4 at home, 0-5-1 in November and 1-6 against winning teams, and Washington is on an 0-10-1 ATS nosedive against AFC opponents.

Denver is on “under” rolls of 7-1 overall, 7-1 laying points and 4-1 in November, though the over for the Broncs is 15-5-2 in their last 22 following a SU loss and 18-6-2 in their last 26 after a non-cover. The under for Washington is on streaks of 18-7-1 overall, 10-1 at FedEx, 5-1 in November, 9-3 after a SU loss and 9-3-1 after a pointspread setback.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Cincinnati (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Pittsburgh (6-2, 3-5 ATS)

The upstart Bengals travel to Heinz Field to take on the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers in a battle for first place in the AFC North.

For the second time this year, Cincinnati knocked off Baltimore, notching a 17-7 home victory Sunday as a three-point ‘dog to win and cash for the second straight game. The Bengals have held six of their eight opponents this year to 20 points or less, and they stand fifth in the league in allowing just 16.9 ppg. Cincy’s offense is averaging 348.8 ypg (12th), paced by the ninth-best run game (130 ypg). RB Cedric Benson’s 837 rushing yards are good for second in the league.

Pittsburgh had a big second half Monday night in blowing out Denver 28-10 as a three-point road chalk for its fifth straight victory (3-2 ATS). The Steelers are fielding the NFL’s fifth-best offense (382 ypg) and are also fifth in passing (266.8 ypg) and 13th in scoring (24.4 ppg). Pittsburgh also has the No. 5 defense at 284.9 ypg and is yielding just 17.4 ppg (sixth).

Cincinnati dropped Pittsburgh 23-20 as a 3½-point home pup in September, ending a five-game SU and ATS roll by the Steelers in this rivalry. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the road team is on an 11-4-1 ATS roll.

The Bengals are on ATS streaks of 8-3 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 7-0 as a pup, 8-3 as a road ‘dog, 4-1 inside the division and 17-7-1 in November. The Steelers are on positive pointspread runs of 7-2 at home (all as a chalk), 5-1 against winning teams and 5-2 in the AFC North, though they are also on a 2-5 ATS skid following a SU win.

The under for Cincy is on stretches of 8-2 after a SU win, 9-3 after a spread-cover, 7-2 against the AFC and 23-9 as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points. On the flip side, the over Pittsburgh is on sprees of 48-21-2 at Heinz Field, 6-2 in division play, 16-6 in the AFC and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in three straight overall and six of the last seven in Pittsburgh.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Buffalo (3-5, 4-4 ATS) at Tennessee (2-6, 3-5 ATS)

The Titans, riding a two-game SU and ATS winning streak after starting out 0-6 (1-5 ATS), aim to make it three in a row when they take on the Bills at LP Field.

Tennessee, bolstered by a late INT return for a TD, beat San Francisco 34-27 as a 4½-point road underdog Sunday. After being held to 17 points or less in five of its first six games, including a 59-0 beatdown at New England three games ago, the Titans have put up 64 points over the past two weeks. The big difference has been star RB Chris Johnson, who leads the league with 959 rushing yards after putting up 491 yards and four TDs over the past three games. Tennessee now has the NFL’s second-best rushing attack, at 161 ypg.

Buffalo took last week off after getting belted 31-10 at home by Houston as a 3½-point ‘dog, ending a two-game SU and ATS uptick. The Bills haven’t scored more than 20 points in their last six games, including five starts of 16 points or less, and they stand 28th in the NFL at 15.4 ppg on the year. Buffalo is averaging just 264.8 ypg (29th).

Tennessee is 5-1 SU (4-2 ATS) in the last six meaningful games between these two teams. Most recently, Tennessee squeaked out a 30-29 road victory as a 5½-point pup in December 2006. The SU winner is 5-1 ATS in the last six clashes.

The Titans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven overall, 1-5 ATS in their last six as a chalk and 3-7 ATS in their last 10 as a non-division home favorite, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 5-1 in November, 12-4 coming off a SU win and 8-3 against losing teams. The Bills, meanwhile, are on pointspread upswings of 6-1 on the highway, 26-9-1 against losing teams and 5-2 as a non-division road pup, but they are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine November starts.

The under is on an 18-8-1 tear with Tennessee coming off a SU win, but the over has hit in five of the Titans’ last seven games overall. The under for Buffalo is on runs of 4-0 overall, 5-0 following a double-digit home loss and 13-3 with the Bills catching 3½ to 10 points. That said, the over is 5-2 in Buffalo’s last seven road games.

ATS ADVANTAGE: TENNESSEE

Detroit (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Minnesota (7-1, 5-3 ATS)

The Vikings, already running away with the NFC Central, return from their bye week to face the Lions at the Metrodome.

Minnesota dispatched Green Bay for the second time this year two weeks ago, posting a 38-26 victory as a 3½-point road underdog to end a two-game ATS hiccup (1-1 SU). The Vikings have rolled up 27 points or more in all but one game this year – their 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh three weeks ago – and are averaging 30.5 ppg, second only to New Orleans.

Detroit held a 17-0 lead at Seattle last week before falling apart and ultimately losing 32-20, failing to cover as an 11-point pup when rookie QB Matthew Stafford threw the last of his five INTs and had it returned 61 yards for a TD in the waning seconds. The Lions are allowing 29.6 ppg, second-worst in the league, while averaging a meager 16.6 ppg (26th).

Minnesota has won four in a row (2-2 ATS) in this divisional rivalry, including a 27-13 road win as a 10-point chalk on Sept. 20. The Vikings are 6-2-1 ATS in the last nine clashes, and the favorite is also 6-2-1 ATS in that stretch.

The Vikings are on ATS upswings of 6-1 following a bye, 4-1 against losing teams, 4-1 in NFC North action and 6-2 in November, but they also shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 5-13 after a SU win, 3-8 after a spread-cover, 1-5 at home and 1-11 laying more than 10 points.

The Lions are on a 13-4 ATS roll as a pup of more than 10, but they are on a 1-24 SU nosedive (9-16 ATS) dating to late in the 2007 season, and they are on further ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 0-4 in November, 2-5 getting points and 8-17-1 against the NFC North.

The total has gone low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams, but the “over” trends take over for both teams from there. The over for Minnesota is on tears of 5-1 overall, 4-0 with the Vikes favored, 7-1 in November and 12-3-1 after the bye, and the over for Detroit is on surges of 20-9-1 overall, 7-1 in November, 22-7 on the road, 18-7-1 against winning teams and 20-6 getting more than 10 points.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER

New Orleans (8-0, 6-2 ATS) at St. Louis (1-7, 3-5 ATS)

The Saints bring the NFL’s best record and best offense to the Edward Jones Dome for a meeting with the Rams, who are coming off their first victory in more than a year.

New Orleans overcame an early 14-0 deficit to Carolina in posting a 30-20 victory Sunday, though it fell just short as a 12½-point home chalk for its second straight ATS setback after cashing in its first six games. QB Drew Brees leads an offense that is rolling up NFL bests of 426.9 ypg and 37.9 ppg, more than seven points better than any other team in the league. The Saints are outscoring their opponents by an average of 17 ppg.

St. Louis, which had its bye last week, topped Detroit 17-10 as a 3½-point road ‘dog, giving new coach Steve Spagnuolo his first win and snapping a 17-game losing streak (6-11 ATS). That said, the Rams are still dead last in the NFL in scoring (9.6 ppg) and 26th in total yards (287.6 ypg), while allowing 27.6 ppg (29th) and 373.4 ypg (28th).

St. Louis is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four meetings of this rivalry, including a 37-29 road upset in November 2007 as a 10-point pup. The visitor has cashed in four of the last five contests.

The Saints carry numerous positive pointspread streaks, including 11-3-1 overall, 6-0-1 on the road, 13-3 giving points, 5-0 as a road chalk, 6-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams. The Rams are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering slides of 6-18 at the home dome, 3-12 as a home ‘dog, 3-11 catching more than 10 points, 9-23 against winning teams and 6-14 in the NFC.

New Orleans is on “over” surges of 20-8-1 overall, 16-5 after a SU win, 17-7-1 as a favorite and 14-5 laying points on the road. The over for St. Louis is on runs of 9-4 after the bye and 3-1-1 at home, though the under for the Rams is 6-1 in their last seven after a SU win and 6-2 in their last eight November outings. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in five of the last six clashes overall and six of the last seven in St. Louis.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER

Atlanta (5-3, 6-2 ATS) at Carolina (3-5 SU and ATS)

The Falcons hit the road for the third time in four weeks when they head north to Bank of America Stadium for an NFC South battle with the Panthers.

Atlanta beat Washington 31-17 Sunday as a healthy nine-point home favorite, ending a two-game SU skid while covering for the second straight week. The Falcons’ defense is allowing 369.9 ypg (24th), but they are holding opponents to just 20.8 ppg (12th). Atlanta is averaging 25.2 ppg (11th), paced by running back Michael Turner (720 yards, 10 TDs, 4.6 ypc), who is seventh in the league in rushing yards.

Carolina wasted a huge day by RB DeAngelo Williams (21 carries, 149 yards, 2 TDs), blowing an early 14-0 lead and losing to New Orleans 30-20 last Sunday, though the Panthers covered as a 12½-point road ‘dog. Williams appears to be hitting his stride, having run for 548 yards and five TDs over the past four games, including three games of 149 yards or better. The Panthers have the league’s third-best running game (153 ypg), but they are still just 21st in total yards (325.1 ypg) and are averaging just 18.5 ppg (tie 23rd).

Atlanta has won and covered in three of the past four meetings in this divisional rivalry, including a 28-20 home win in September as a six-point favorite. The SU winner has cashed in the last nine clashes, the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run, and the Falcons are 15-7-4 ATS in the last 26 contests.

The Falcons sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 as a chalk, 4-0 giving three points or less, 4-0 in November and 5-1 against losing teams, though they are 1-4 ATS in their last five division roadies. The Panthers have covered in four of their last five NFC South starts, but they are on pointspread skids of 0-4 at home, 3-7 as a pup and 2-5 as a home ‘dog.

The over for Atlanta is on runs of 4-1 overall, 5-1 in the division, 7-1 in the NFC and 7-3 against losing teams, and the over for Carolina is on streaks of 5-1 in the division, 11-4 in the NFC, 7-3 against winning teams and 6-2 with the Panthers a ‘dog. However, the under is on upswings of 38-18-1 on the road for Atlanta, 6-0 with the Falcons a road favorite, 4-1 at home for Carolina and 4-1 with the Panthers a home pup.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 12 of the last 14 meetings in Charlotte.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Tampa Bay (1-7, 2-6 ATS) at Miami (3-5, 4-4 ATS)

The Buccaneers, who finally cracked the win column last week, look to make it two in a row with the short trip south to LandShark Stadium to face the Dolphins.

Tampa Bay, with rookie QB Josh Freeman making his first start, scored 21 straight fourth-quarter points to clinch Sunday’s 38-28 victory over Green Bay as a 9½-point home underdog, giving new coach Raheem Morris his first career win. Freeman was just 14 of 31 for a modest 205 yards, but he threw three TDs against one INT, including a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes as the Bucs rallied from a 28-17 deficit and ended an 11-game regular-season losing streak.

Tampa still sits a lowly 28th in total offense (273.1 ypg) and 25th in scoring (16.8 ppg), while allowing 379.9 ypg (29th) and 28.9 ppg (30th).

Miami fell to New England 37-27 last week, eking out a pointspread cover as a 10½-point road pup to cash for the fourth time in five games, after opening the season 0-3 SU and ATS. The Wildcat offense has the Dolphins fourth in the league in rushing (150.9 ypg), yet they are just 23rd in total offense (309 ypg). Miami is also in the bottom half defensively, allowing 341.4 ypg (22nd) and 25.5 ppg (26th).

These teams meet every year in the preseason, but they’ve had just one regular-season meeting this decade, with Tampa winning 27-13 as a 4½-point home chalk in October 2005.

The Buccaneers, who were on an 11-game SU slide (2-9 ATS) prior to last week’s win, are 6-2 ATS in their last eight November games, but they are on ATS dips of 2-8 overall, 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-8 against losing teams, 2-6 as an underdog and 2-11 in non-conference road games. Likewise, the Dolphins are stuck in ATS ruts of 14-36-1 at home, 7-18-1 against losing teams, 7-22 as a favorite, 0-6 against the NFC and 3-16 as a non-division home chalk.

The over for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 7-3 overall, 12-2 against losing teams and 11-4 on the road, and the over for Miami is on runs of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at LandShark and 10-3 after a SU loss.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Kansas City (1-7, 3-5 ATS) at Oakland (2-6, 4-4 ATS)

Two traditional AFC West rivals square off, though neither squad has much to play for at the season’s midway point when the Chiefs head west to the Coliseum to face the Raiders.

Kansas City’s fourth-quarter rally fell short at Jacksonville last week, losing 24-21, but its two fourth-quarter TDs help the team cover as a seven-point road ‘dog. It marked the Chiefs’ highest point total since their season-opening 38-24 loss at Baltimore, as they are averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th) with an offense that rates 30th in total yards (257.8 ypg).

Oakland had its bye last week after a 24-16 road loss to San Diego, though it covered as an overwhelming 16-point pup. Like the Chiefs, that was the Raiders’ highest scoring output since Week 1, with an offense that makes K.C. look prolific by comparison. Oakland is averaging a dismal 9.8 ppg, tied for 30th with Cleveland and leading only the Rams (9.6 ppg). The Raiders are also last in total offense (215.8 ypg).

Oakland is 3-1 SU and ATS in the last four clashes in this rivalry, including a 13-10 road victory as a one-point underdog on Sept. 20. Kansas City has cashed on its last six trips to the Coliseum, the SU winner has cashed in eight of the last nine meetings overall (including the last six in a row), the road team is on an 18-7-1 ATS roll and the underdog has covered in the last five contests.

The Chiefs are on a 13-6 ATS tear on the highway and are 5-2 ATS in their last seven division games, but they are also on ATS skids of 3-7 overall and 1-5 against AFC foes, and dating to the 2008 season opener, K.C. is a pathetic 3-21 SU (11-13 ATS). The Raiders, meanwhile, are on a bundle of spread-covering slides, including 15-36-1 at home, 16-35-1 against losing teams, 5-18 as a favorite and 0-9 as a home chalk, and they’re 0-6 SU and ATS the last six years after the bye.

In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in eight of the last nine matchups overall and four in a row at Oakland. Furthermore, the under for Kansas City is on runs of 4-1-1 in division play and 8-2-1 against losing teams, and the under for Oakland is on sprees of 5-2 overall, 6-1 after the bye, 5-1-1 in the division, 12-3-1 in November and 7-3 at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Seattle (3-5 SU and ATS) at Arizona (5-3 SU and ATS)

The defending NFC champion Cardinals, coming off yet another road win, return to University of Phoenix Stadium looking to sweep the season series from the NFC West rival Seahawks.

Arizona punished Chicago 41-21 Sunday as a one-point road ‘dog, improving to 4-0 SU and ATS on the highway this season. The home field has been a problem, though, as the Cards are 1-3 SU and ATS in Glendale, including a 34-21 loss to Carolina as a heavy 10-point chalk two weeks ago. QB Kurt Warner threw five INTs against Carolina, but bounced back with five TDs against Chicago.

Despite Warner’s erratic play, Arizona still has the NFL’s eighth-best passing attack (262.4 ypg), but its running game – even after netting a whopping 182 yards against the Bears – still stands 31st at just 79.5 ypg.

Seattle got a pick-six in the waning seconds against Detroit to post a 32-20 win and cover as an 11-point home chalk Sunday, rallying from an early 17-0 deficit and halting a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Seahawks haven’t been able to string together two good games all year, following their season-opening 28-0 rout of St. Louis with three losses in which they scored 19 points or less, then totaling just 20 points in two losses following a 41-0 home rout of Jacksonville.

Arizona pelted Seattle 27-3 four weeks ago as a three-point road pup and has now won and cashed in five of the last six clashes in this rivalry, including the last three in a row. The Cards are on a 4-1 ATS run at home against the Seahawks, and the host is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests. Also, the SU winner has cashed nine straight times.

The Cardinals are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in the division, 4-1 against losing teams, 7-2 in the NFC, 6-2 after a SU win and 6-2 after a pointspread victory. Conversely, the Seahawks are on pointspread purges of 2-5 overall, 2-9 after a SU win, 4-10 after an ATS win, 0-4 on the road, 0-5 as an underdog and 0-4 against winning teams. Plus, Seattle is on an 0-5 SU and ATS dive in road games following a SU win.

The over has been the play in this rivalry lately, hitting in eight of the last 11 overall and five in a row in Phoenix. Additionally, the over for Arizona is on a boatload of runs, including 34-16 overall, 4-0 in November, 13-4 at home, 9-4 with the Cards a home chalk and 20-7 after a SU win. For Seattle, the over is on streaks of 4-1 from the underdog role and 9-4 with the ‘Hawks a road pup, though the under for the Seahawks is on upticks of 4-1-1 in division play and 6-2 in November.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER

Philadelphia (5-3 SU and ATS) at San Diego (5-3, 3-5 ATS)

The surging Chargers go after their fourth straight victory in a non-conference clash with the Eagles at Qualcomm Stadium.

San Diego stunned the Giants with an 80-yard drive that ended on a Philip Rivers-to-Vincent Jackson TD pass with 21 seconds left last Sunday, securing a 21-20 road victory as a five-point road underdog. The Chargers are a middling 17th in total offense (335.4 ypg), but they are scoring 25.8 ppg (ninth), led by the seventh-best passing attack (265.8 ypg). Rivers has 14 TD throws against just six INTs.

Philadelphia tumbled to Dallas 20-16 as a three-point home favorite Sunday night, getting held under 22 points for just the second time this season while ending a two-game SU and ATS run. Like San Diego, the Eagles are in the middle of the league offensively (338.5 ypg, 15th), but they score at a healthy rate, averaging 27.4 ppg (fourth), and they’ve been bolstered by a plus-11 turnover margin, which is No. 1 in the NFL.

These squads have met just twice this decade, both at Philadelphia, with the Eagles going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS. Most recently, Philly won 20-17 in October 2005, but San Diego cashed as a 4½-point pup.

The Chargers are on a 6-2 ATS run at home against teams with a winning road mark, but they are otherwise in pointspread declines of 4-9 as a favorite, 0-4 after a spread-cover and 1-5 following a SU win, and they are also just 3-7 ATS in their last 10 against NFC foes. The Eagles, despite last week’s debacle against Dallas, are on ATS tears of 11-5 overall, 14-6 on the road, 8-1 as a road pup and 5-0 after both a SU loss and an ATS setback.

The under has hit in six straight November games for San Diego and is 7-3-1 in its last 11 at Qualcomm, but the over for the Bolts is on surges of 5-2 against winning teams, 5-2-2 from the favorite’s role, 5-2 after a spread-cover and 7-3 following a SU win. Philadelphia is on “over” runs of 7-2 overall, 5-0 after a SU loss, 6-0 after a non-cover, 21-6 getting points and 26-12-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Dallas (6-2, 5-3 ATS) at Green Bay (4-4 SU and ATS)

The Packers, already in desperation mode for wins just eight games into the season, renew their longtime rivalry with the streaking Cowboys at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay blew a 28-17 fourth-quarter lead against previously winless Tampa Bay, allowing the final 21 points of the game in a 38-28 road loss Sunday as a 9½-point chalk, its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Packers have given up 38 points in both those losses, after holding four of their first six opponents to 21 points or less.

Still, Green Bay has the NFL’s fourth-best total defense (282.9 ypg) and is allowing 21.5 ppg (17th), and QB Aaron Rodgers (16 TDs, five INTs) has been solid most of the time. The problem is that Rodgers has already been sacked an NFL-high 37 times this year, 10 more than anyone else in the league.

Dallas scored a mild upset at Philadelphia on Sunday, winning 20-16 as a three-point pup for its fourth consecutive SU victory and third straight spread-cover. The Cowboys are third in total offense (404.5 ypg) and tied for fifth in scoring offense (27.1 ppg), and although they stand 20th in total defense (336.5 ypg), they’re only giving up 19 ppg (seventh). In fact, they’ve held their last six opponents to three TDs or less.

These rivals met each of the past two seasons, with Dallas going 2-0 SU and ATS, including a 27-16 win as a three-point road chalk in September 2008. The Cowboys are 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings, and the home team and the chalk are both 7-1 ATS in that same stretch.

The Packers have failed to cover in four straight November games and are on further ATS skids of 2-5 at home and 1-5 in non-division home games, though they still carry positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a non-cover, 5-2 getting points and 7-3 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points. The Cowboys are on ATS runs of 4-0 in conference games, 12-2 in November, 9-4 as a chalk and 4-1-1 laying three or less on the road, but despite last week’s win in Philly, they remain only 3-7 ATS in their last 10 away games.

Green Bay is on several “over” tears, including 23-9-1 overall, 4-0 in November, 20-5-1 in the NFC, 10-4 against winning teams and 12-5 at Lambeau. Similarly, the over for Dallas is on stretches of 7-3 overall, 6-2 with the Pokes favored and 15-6-2 with the Cowboys a road chalk. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five contests.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY and OVER

New England (6-2, 4-4 ATS) at Indianapolis (8-0, 5-3 ATS)

The undefeated Colts play host to the perennial power Patriots at Lucas Oil Stadium in a prime-time showdown featuring two of the NFL’s top teams this decade.

Indianapolis fended off Houston 20-17 at home last week, falling short as a 7½-point favorite for its second straight ATS loss. Peyton Manning (16 TDs, 5 INTs, 2,545 yards) leads an offense that is putting up 400.4 total ypg (fourth), including a league-leading 315 yards through the air, and Indy is tied for fifth in scoring (27.1 ppg). Also, despite having numerous injuries on defense, particularly in the secondary, the Colts stand eighth in yards allowed (303.4 ypg) and are No. 1 in points allowed (13.5 ppg), while also sporting a plus-7 turnover margin (fifth).

New England dropped Miami 27-17 Sunday, winning its third straight game but coming up just short of cashing as a 10½-point home chalk. The Pats are third in the league in scoring (28.1 ppg) and second in total offense (409.2 ypg), with QB Tom Brady (16 TDs, five INTs) engineering a passing game that is second only to the Colts, averaging 295 ypg. The Patriots are also second only to Indy in points allowed, at a stifling 14.4 per game, while yielding 291.8 ypg (seventh), and they have a plus-8 turnover margin (tied for third).

These rivals have met nine times since 2003, including three times in the playoffs. Indianapolis is on a 4-1 SU and ATS surge, including an 18-15 home win last November in which it failed to cover as a 6½-point favorite. The Pats are 8-3 ATS on their last 11 trips to Indy, and the underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in the last 15 series clashes.

The Colts shoulder several negative ATS streaks, including 4-10 at home, 1-4 as a home favorite, 1-3-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a trio of 5-2 ATS upswings: overall, following a SU win and as a chalk of three points or less. The Patriots are 7-15 ATS in their last 22 games coming off a SU win, but the pointspread trends head upward from there, including 37-17-1 on the highway, 8-2 after a non-cover and 5-2 as an underdog (all on the road).

The under for Indianapolis is on rolls of 7-3 overall, 4-0 in November, 4-1 at home and 5-1 in conference action, and the under for New England is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 on the road, 4-1 after a SU win and 14-6 in November. That said, the over is on surges of 11-5 when the Pats are a ‘dog and 6-2 with New England getting up to three points on the highway.

Finally, three of the last four meetings in this rivalry have fallen short of the total, including the last two in a row.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER

True Test
By SportsPic

The unbeaten Colts (8-0, 5-3 ATS) behind Manning's 2545 yards 16 TD's scoring 27.1 points per game allowing a league best 13.5 PPG put up a seventeen game (10-7 ATS) regular season win streak that all started in week-9 last year when they defeated Patriots 18-15 but failed at the betting window as 6.5 point home favorites. Colts dominant in the first six (5-1 ATS) outscoring opponents 29.8 to 12.8 have struggled a bit the past two (0-2 ATS) managing just 19 points per contest while allowing 15.5 points/game. The Un-blemished Colts are just 1-3 ATS at Lucas Oil Stadium this season and 5-11 ATS last sixteen regular season games as hosts. Meanwhile, Patriots (6-2, 4-4 ATS) due to a rusty Tom Brady started the campaign slowly going 3-2 SU & ATS scoring 20.8 PPG allowing 18.2. Brady however has regained his form recently, throwing for 1,020 yards and 10 touchdowns during a three-game winning streak outscoring opponents 121-24 in the process. For years Patriots were Colts nemesis winning 26-of-35 meetings (25-8-2 ATS) but since 2005 the tables have turned with Colts knocking off Patriots in 4-of-5 (4-1 ATS) encounters. Interesting to note that Patriots are 5-1 ATS last six regular season in an underdog roll, 28-15 ATS this millennium including 21-12 ATS on the highway. So, will Colts shaky secondary with a pair of untested rookies keep Bill Belichick's troops honest ? Sportsbooks think so, they've pegged Manning and company -2.5 to -3 point favorites.

What Bettors Need to Know: Patriots at Colts
By VICTOR RYAN

It doesn’t get much bigger than this when it comes to the regular season.

This intriguing matchup figures to come down to which of these two potent offensive units can be slowed – at best.

Peyton Manning and the Colts have the league’s top passing attack with 315 yards a game, but the Patriots’ pass defense has been nearly as good. It is allowing just 179 yards a game through the air to rank third in the NFL in pass defense.

Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick kept it close to the vest when discussing defensive strategy this week, but did indicate there aren’t likely to be any major new wrinkles.

“We’re not going to go in here and install a new defense in the next couple of days,” Belichick told the Boston Herald. “I don’t think that would be a good way to defend one of the best offensive teams not only this year, but in the last decade and the history of pro football. You go with some things you’re comfortable doing, the defense is familiar with, the principles. You might give them a little different look, but you don’t want to be out there with everybody being hesitant and indecisive. You want to be confident and be able to play aggressively.”

New England is averaging 295 yards a game through the air and trails only the Colts in that category. The Colts have the league’s ninth-best pass defense having allowed an average of 195 yards a game and also lead the league in scoring defense by allowing just 13.5 points a game.

With that said, the Colts’ defense has been hit hard by injuries the last couple of weeks. They will be once again be without cornerback Marlin Jackson and strong safety Bob Sanders among others.

Pats’ receiver Randy Moss appears eligible for another big game. Moss, who has 49 catches for 712 yards and five touchdowns this season, will have a height advantage over the Colts smaller corners. He had nine catches for 145 yards and a touchdown in the Pats’ last win over the Colts in 2007.

Head-to-Head

The Colts have won four of the last five head-to-head matchups, including an 18-15 home win as 5-point favorites last November. These teams have played each other at least once in every season this decade, with the exception being in 2002.

Injuries

Starting center Dan Koppen, who suffered a knee injury last week vs. Miami, is among a handful of Patriots that are listed as questionable or doubtful this week.

On a positive note, tackle Matt Light, running back Sammy Morris and receiver Julian Edelman practiced for the first time in weeks and are all expected to be game-time decisions. Light and Morris are dealing with knee injuries while Edelman is recovering from a broken arm.

Jarvis Green, Fred Taylor and Brandon Tate are all out for the Patriots.

As for the Colts, receiver Austin Collie (upper body) and running back Donald Brown (shoulder), the Colts’ first-round draft pick this year, are listed as questionable. Brown and Collie both told the local media they are expecting to play.

Line movement

The Colts opened as 2.5-point home favorites. Depending on where you look, you can now get the Colts and lay anywhere from one to three points. The total opened at 50 and has moved to 49 virtually everywhere.

Trends

The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games as underdogs.
The Colts are…2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record…4-10 ATS in their last 14 home games…1-4 ATS in their last five games as home favorites.
The Under is…4-0 in the Patriots last four road games…4-1 in the Colts last five home games.
The underdog is 11-3-1 ATS in these teams last 15 meetings…the Patriots are 1-4 ATS in these teams last five meetings.

NFL Week 10's Biggest Line Moves
By Randy Scott

Jacksonville Jaguars at New York Jets (-7, 40.5)

Opening Line: -6.5, 40

Where the early action is: 80 percent - Jets

Comments: We should see a recharged Jets team coming off a much needed bye week. The Jets desperately need to get something going, after losing four of their last five games. Jacksonville can beat the really bad teams but not the mediocre teams. The Jaguars’ playoff hopes could end this week. The Jets should give the Jags all they can handle and more.

Fact: Only eight games between these two teams. Jacksonville leads the series history 5-2

Denver Broncos at Washington Redskins (+4, 37)

Opening Line: -3, 36

Where the early action is: 95 percent - Broncos

Comments: Before the bettors stop backing the Broncos for the rest of the season, they aren’t going to miss out on this matchup. Washington has lost four in a row and can’t score more than 17 points per game this season. The Broncos defense is too good for the Redskins offense. Expect the Broncos to unleash their very good blitz package. This line will grow.

Fact: This is their 11th regular-season meeting. Broncos lead 6-4

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 41.5)

Opening Line: -7, 42

Where the early action is: 50 – 50 split

Comments: The Steelers have won five in a row since their loss to the Bengals in Week 3. The Bengals have won six out of last seven and are undefeated in their division this season. This is very popular game to bet on this week. You can do a lot with the spread of 7 on both sides. The Bengals are taking majority money line and teaser action, while the Steelers straight bets and buy points balances it out. This is a very hard game to book, a close final score will most defiantly hurt.

Fact: The Steelers lead the series history 47-31 and are 26-13 at home.

Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (-7, 41)

Opening Line: -6.5, 41

Where the early action is: 90 percent - Titans

Comments: As bad as Tennessee has been this season, they’ve won two in a row and Vince Young isn’t turning the ball over. This is a game the Titans can run away with. The Bills are seriously banged up with 10 players on the injury reserve.

Fact: Tennessee RB-Chris Johnson leads the league in rushing.

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings (-17, 48)

Opening Line: -16.5, 48

Where the early action is: 68 percent - Vikings

Comments: Huge spread here, the only action Detroit is getting is in Teasers to bring the line up to +23 or more. This is a tough game to book because so much can be done with a spread like this backing both numbers. A close game will generate big wins for all Teaser bettors.

Fact: Detroit is second-to-last against the pass and 17th vs. the run

New Orleans Saints at St. Louis Rams (+14, 50)

Opening Line: -14, 50

Where the early action is: 98 percent - Saints

Comments: This game has the makings of being the biggest blowout of the season. Expect this line to seriously move up.

Fact: Saints are scoring almost 38 points per game; the Rams haven’t scored 38 points in their last three games combined.

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+1.5, 43.5)

Opening Line: -1.5, 44.5

Where the early action is: 96 percent - Falcons

Comments: No one is betting on the Panthers at home this week, regardless how many picks the Falcons QB Matt Ryan has recently thrown. Carolina QB Jake Delhomme has twice as many. That makes this a very low volume game. It’s a toss-up call in the eyes of the bookmakers and the heavy one-sided action is not going to bring this line up to the key number 3.

Fact: Falcons QB Matt Ryan has eight interceptions in the last four games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-10.5, 43)

Opening Line: -9.5, 44

Where the early action is: 70 percent - Dolphins

Comments: The Bucs snapped an 11 game losing streak last week by upsetting Green Bay at home as 10-point underdogs. They are getting zero respect for that and once again are double-digit dogs. Majority of the bettors agree with this line and are betting the Fish in just about every bet type available. We don’t expect this line to move up to -11.

Fact: The Bucs have won the last three meetings; their series history is 4-4

Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-1.5, 37)

Opening Line: -1.5, 36.5

Where the early action is: 71 percent - Raiders

Comments: There isn’t a lot of betting interest in this game. We think Oakland is due to buck a big stat against them in this matchup. The Chiefs have won six straight games in Oakland.

Fact: Larry Johnson, released by Kansas City, had 938 yards on 222 carries and 12 touchdowns in 10 games against the Raiders, averaging 4.2 yards per carry.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-9, 46.5)

Opening Line: -8, 47

Where the early action is: 80 percent – Cardinals

Comments: The Cardinals will be looking to shake off their season long home field jitters this week. They are 4-0 on the road but just 1-3 at home. This line has already moved up to a key number, we expect it to grow even more by game time. The bettors are backing the Cards every which way, Straight, Teasers and Buy Points. A close game is all the books are asking for in this one.

Fact: The Cardinals have a minus 10 turnover ratio at home this season.

Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers (pk, 47)

Opening Line: SD -1.5, 47.5

Where the early action is: 50 – 50 split

Comments: The Eagles have their top runner Brian Westbrook back this week in an almost must win situation for them. That’s what brought the line down to a pick. The Chargers are on a three-game win streak after narrowly beating the Giants on the road last week. The line represents a much better performance is expected from the Eagles this game, and now it’s up to the bettors to believe that will happen or not. This will be a heavily bet afternoon game and we expect the action to sway towards the Chargers. It won’t take much and this line will go back to the opener or even higher.

Fact: The Eagles have 22 takeaways this season, second most in the league.

Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (+3, 48)

Opening Line: -2.5, 47.5

Where the early action is: 97 percent - Cowboys

Comments: All Cowboys action in this one. Green Bay was officially exposed last week in its loss to the winless Buccaneers, showing its inability to protect QB Aaron Rodgers. Were they looking past the Bucs to this game? This will be a heavily-bet game, but very one sided. As heavy as the Cowboys’ action gets, don’t expect to see this line move up. There are whispers of this being a trap game for Dallas.

Fact: Cowboys WR Roy Williams is getting the ball right now. His five catches last week versus the Eagles were his most as a Cowboy.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (-2, 48)

Opening Line: -3, 50

Where the early action is: 75 percent - Patriots

Comments: A nationally-hyped game like this gets everyone betting. This will no doubt be our most bet on game this week. Balancing the action is easily achievable with two popular teams like this. The line can’t go back to -3 because the Patriots are just as popular as the Colts to win outright. This line could drop to a pick and still get solid two-way action. Teasers and buying points on both teams will be heavily played. A close game will hurt the books.

Fact: Colts QB Peyton Manning has thrown for 300 yards or more in seven games this season.

Tips and Trends

Philadelphia Eagles at San Diego Chargers

Eagles: Philadelphia makes the cross country trip to San Diego at 5-3 SU this season. This will be the Eagles 4th road game of the season. Eagles haven't allowed a team to score 20 PTS or more when on the road. Of the Eagles last 10 games decided by fewer than 10 points, they've only won once. This Eagles defense is second in the NFL in takeaways, forcing 22 turnovers. This Eagles rushing attack has rushed for more than 100 YDS just twice in its last 7 games. QB Donovan McNabb has been very streaky this year, and he's coming off his worst QB rating game of the season. McNabb has thrown for more than 200 YDS just once this season on the road.

Eagles are 8-2 ATS last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 21-6 last 27 games as an underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is probable.
CB Asante Samuel (neck) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Chargers (-1, O/U 47): San Diego is riding high after last weeks win on the road against the Giants. Chargers will look to win their 4th consecutive game. Chargers are 2-2 SU at home, but have only won 1 game ATS this year at home. The Chargers have the worst rushing offense in the NFL, at under 70 YPG. Luckily, the Chargers have QB Phillip Rivers (2,250 YDS passing, 15 TDs) who is a true team leader. In it's 3 game winning streak, the Chargers defense has accounted for 15 sacks, 5 in each game.

Chargers are 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a SU win.
Over is 7-3 last 10 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - C Nick Hardwick (ankle) is probable.
LB Kevin Burnett (leg) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts

Patriots: New England is playing their best football of the season right now. They have won 3 consecutive games SU, with their offense leading the way. QB Tom Brady has thrown for more than 1,000 YDS with 10 TDs during this 3 game winning streak. The Patriots are also running the ball well, having rushed for more than 100 YDS in its last 3 games. This is the 1st game this season the Patriots have been the underdog. This Patriots defense is 2nd in the NFL in scoring defense, at 14.4 PPG. The casual fan will be expecting instant offense, but in reality you have the two best scoring defenses in the NFL.

New England is 8-3 ATS last 11 meetings in Indianapolis.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games.

Key Injuries - T Matt Light (knee) is questionable.
S Brandon Meriweather (foot) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (Side of the Day)

Colts (-3, O/U 49.5): Indianapolis has won 17 consecutive regular season games entering today. QB Peyton Manning is having another MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for more than 300 YDS in 7 of 8 games. This Colts offense has put up big statistical numbers this year, but have only scored 38 PTS combined in the past two weeks. This Colts defense is often overlooked because of their offense, but not this year. The Colts defense leads the NFL in scoring defense, allowing only 13.5 PPG on the season. This defense does have numerous injuries entering the contest tonight.

Colts are 4-10 ATS last 14 home games.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games overall.

Key Injuries - RB Donald Brown (shoulder) is questionable.
DB Bob Sanders (bicep) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21