NFL Week 11 Games
Raiders (5-4) @ Steelers (6-3) - Oakland upset Steelers as 10-point dogs here LY; they’re 3-2 in last five series games, splitting last four visits here. Raiders won last three games before bye, scoring 38.3 ppg, outscoring teams 67-20 in second half, running ball for 226 ypg; they’ve allowed only six TDs on 53 drives in last four games, forcing 26 3/outs. Pitt defense allowed 12 ppg in first five games (five TDs on 55 drives), 25.5 in last four (nine TDs/45 drives). Penalties don’t kill; in their 3-game win streak, Raiders have been penalized 36 times for 339 yards. Over is 5-2 in last seven Raider games, 4-1 in Steeler games since Big Ben came back.
Texans (4-5) @ Jets (7-2) - Horrific Houston defense allowed 30.8 ppg in 1-4 skid over last five games, allowing 18 TDs on last 49 drives; letting Jaguars go 64 yards on two plays in 0:08 to win game last week was ugly. Texans are 0-4 vs Jets, losing two visits here 29-7/26-11- they’re 1-3 as underdog this year, 0-2 on road. Jets won seven of last eight games, but last three wins are by 4-3-3 points; last week, they became first-ever team to win OT road games in consecutive weeks—they allowed 9-10 points in their two losses, so teams that beat them shut Sanchez down. Over is 7-1 in last eight Jet games, 6-3 in Houston games, 3-1 in their road tilts.
Ravens (6-3) @ Panthers (1-8) - Baltimore had three extra days to prepare after tough loss in Atlanta last week; Carolina has three rookies at QB; Clausen had concussion next week, so Pike could get nod here, vs Raven defense that hasn’t been as good as past years, allowing 2+ TDs in six of last seven games. Ravens are 0-3 vs. Carolina, losing last two games by combined total of five points, but teams haven’t met since ’06. Seven of nine Baltimore games were decided by 7 or less points. Seven of eight Panther losses were by 10+ points. Under is 4-1 in Baltimore road games, 6-2 in last eight Panther games.
Redskins (4-5) @ Titans (5-4) - Interesting to see how Skins respond on short week after Monday night debacle; they were first home team in NFL history to trail 28-0 in first quarter!!! Washington allowed 14 or less points in all four of its wins, 27+ in all five losses. Titan QB Collins (ankle) is out for few weeks, so if Young were to get hurt again, untested rookie Rusty Smith (played at FAU) would see first NFL action; either that, or they’d just run Wildcat the whole game. Redskins split only two visits here, with last one eight years ago. Over is 5-1 in Titans’ last six games, 3-1 in last four Washington games.
Lions (2-7) @ Cowboys (2-7) - Detroit lost to 0-8 Buffalo last week, year after they lost to 0-7 Rams, but they’re still an amazing 8-1 vs spread this year, covering last six games- they’re 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 5-14-2-8-2 points (24-10 loss at Minnesota was their only non-cover this year). Cowboys looked like new team with their new coach last week, but with champ Saints visiting on Turkey Day next week, could a 2-7 team possibly look past this game? Dallas has still allowed average of 33.2 ppg in last six games. Cowboys won four of last five series games, with three of four wins by 10+ points; Lions actually split their last four visits here.
Packers (6-3) @ Vikings (3-6) - Minnesota outrushed Pack 196-84 in first meeting, but lost 28-24 in Lambeau (+2.5), as Rodgers averaged 8.4 yards/pass attempt. Pack allowed only one TD on 21 drives (ten 3/outs) in two wins since then, and should be fresh coming off bye. Capers’ defense has 10 takeaways in last three games, while offense hasn’t turned it over in last two games (+7). Minnesota allowed 21+ points in last six games, losing three of last four (11 giveaways, -6), and they trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win. All four Green Bay road games stayed under total (average total, 30.5), but over is 5-0-1 in Vikings’ last six games (average total, 47.2).
Bills (1-8) @ Bengals (2-7) - Buffalo is 9-0 in this series since losing playoff game in Queen City 22 years ago; they won last three visits here, by 13-16-10 points. Bengals lost last six games, and were favored in three of them; they’re 1-3 at home (beat Ravens 15-10), 1-3 as favorite, 1-1 at home- they’re 0-7 when they give up more than 10 points. Last four Buffalo games were all decided by 3 or less points, after they had lost previous four games by 10+ points each. Last three Buffalo games stayed under total. Average total in last three series games is 56.0. Not sure how you could justify laying 5.5 points with team that hasn’t won in seven weeks.
Browns (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4) - Cleveland beat Jags in each of last two years, both by 23-17 scores; Browns won last three visits here, in series where road team won five of last six meetings. Improved Browns lost to 7-2 Jets in OT last week, after beating Saints/Patriots before that, but they’re just 1-3 on road, scoring 13.7 ppg in three losses. Jags won last two games- they scored 31+ points in last four wins, and are 0-4 when they score less than 24. Cleveland is 3-0 with positive turnover ratio, 0-3 without it. Jags won field position battle in seven of nine games, and found a way to win on last play last week. Over is 6-1 in Browns’ last seven games, 7-2 in Jaguar games this season.
Cardinals (3-6) @ Chiefs (5-4) - Chief coach Todd Haley vs team he helped get to Super Bowl as OC two years ago. Arizona is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30.8 ppg (allowed nine TDs on 36 drives in last three games); they lost last four road games, by average score of 34-13- they had two TD lead with 5:00 left in last road game, but Favre bailed Vikings out. Chiefs are 4-0 at home (1-1 as home favorite) winning by 7-21-22-3 points. KC won four of last five series games; Redbirds are 0-3-1 here, losing by 24-10-49 points, but last visit was in ’02. Seven of last eight Cardinal games, four of last five Chief games went over.
Seahawks (5-4) @ Saints (6-3) - Seattle scored 14 or less points in its losses, 22+ in its wins; Saints held three or less foes to 10 or less points. Seahawk QB Hasselbeck expected to play with broken bone in left wrist. Hawks are 2-3 on road, with losses by 17-17-30 points; they’re 4-3 as an underdog, 2-2 on road. Saints should be fresh after bye; they outscored last four opponents 62-23 in second half, and allowed only one TD on 23 drives in last two games. NO is 3-5-1 vs. spread as favorite, 1-3-1 at home, with wins by 5-2-10 points. All four Seattle losses are by 17+ points. Teams split ten series meetings (2-2 here), with last meeting in ’07.
Falcons (7-2) @ Rams (4-5) - Atlanta won last three games, scoring 31.3 ppg (11 TDs on 29 drives); they’re 1-2 (0-3 vs. spread) when scoring less than 20 points (only win 16-14 over 49ers). St Louis won its last four home games, allowing 11.5 ppg (gave up four TDs on 45 drives), but offense is having trouble in second half (Rams outscored 66-23 in second half of last five games). Atlanta is 2-2 on road with two OT games; they’re 4-3 as favorites, 1-1 on road. Falcons lost last five visits here, with last win here in ’98, when Tony Banks was Rams’ QB. Last four Atlanta games went over total; under is 4-1 in Rams’ home games.
Buccaneers (6-3) @ 49ers (3-6) - Home team won last seven series games, with Tampa Bay losing last eight visits here; Bucs are 1-11 on Candlestick Point, with only win vs 1-15 Niners back in 1980; teams split last six meetings, with average total of 31.5 in those six. Insertion of Troy Smith at QB has sparked 49ers, who won last two games, scoring 24-23 points, but fact is they’re just 5-24 on 3rd down in Smith’s two starts. Niners’ +6 turnover ratio (7-1) in last four games has been big help. Four of six Tampa wins have been by three or less points, as Freeman has proven to be clutch player (converted 13-23 on 3rd down in last two games). Over is 5-2 in Bucs’ last seven games.
Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (7-2) - Indy won four of last five games, Patriots six of last seven. Colt offense is banged-up; their only offensive TD vs Bengals last week came on 25-yard drive after a fumble. Patriots are 4-0 at home (2-1-1 as home favorite), with three wins by 10+ points. Indy covered only Game as dog this year (L24-26 @ Philly, +3). Indy won five of last six series games, with last four all decided by 4 or less points; Colts won last two visits here (last visit in ’06), 40-21/27-20. Average total in last six series games is 54.3; over is 4-1 in Colt road games, 7-2 in New England games this year. Brady was held to 14 points in each of his losses. Colts allowed 24+ in four of five road games. Seems like these teams play in Week 10 every year.
Giants (6-3) @ Eagles (6-3) - Big Blue was rolling along on 5-game win streak until Dallas upset them 33-20 last week, with 38-year old backup QB Kitna throwing for 14.1 yards/attempt. Eagles won four of last five games, as Vick is playing better than he ever has. Philly ran ball for 455 yards in last two games, gaining 994 yards; they’ve won field position battle in last four games. Giants offense has gained 497-487-480 total yards in last three games, even though they had two OL starters out last week. Philly won last four series games, three of which were in Swamp; Giants are 4-2 in last six visits here, but lost 40-17 in LY’s visits, only home win in last six series games.
Broncos (3-6) @ Chargers (4-5) - Bolts won six of last eight series games, but lost 34-23 at home to Denver LY, as Broncos raced out to 6-0 record—they’re 5-14 since then. In their last three games, wildly erratic Broncos have led 35-0 in 2nd quarter and trailed 35-0 in 2nd. Overall, they’ve lost four of last five games, are 2-5 as an underdog, with road losses by 7-14-8 points. Denver is 0-6 if they score less than 26 points. Chargers scored 33-29 points in winning last two games before their bye- they’re 3-1 as home favorite, with wins by 25-31-8 points (lost at home to NE). With Chiefs losing last two games, AFC West race is wide open. Average total in last four series games is 60.5.