NFL News and Notes Sunday 11/21

Gridiron Angles - Week 11
By Vince Akins

Bills at Bengals – The League is 11-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since October 11, 2009 as a road dog the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Bills are 7-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 15, 1991 on the road when they won by 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Bills are 0-6-1 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 18, 2007 versus any team with more wins, after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since September 27, 1998 the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards as a TD+ dog. The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a home favorite. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 after a straight up win. The Bengals are 0-9 OU (-10.3 ppg) since December 10, 2006 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road.

Cardinals at Chiefs – The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (14.2 ppg) since January 02, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 05, 1989 as a home favorite the week after in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-7.1 ppg) since October 10, 1999 as a favorite when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road before playing at home in each of the next two weeks. The Cardinals are 12-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since November 06, 2005 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 06, 2005 the week after a loss in which they had at least 300 yards passing.

Lions at Cowboys – The Lions are 6-0 ATS (4.9 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a 7+ dog when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 22, 1998 as a home favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (6.3 ppg) since October 12, 2003 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a favorite the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards on the road. The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Lions are 8-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since November 11, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (16.4 ppg) since October 23, 2006 at home versus any team with the same record.

Giants at Eagles – The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (9.3 ppg) since October 08, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since September 21, 1992 after a straight up loss at home versus the Cowboys. The Eagles are 0-7 ATS (-13.0 ppg) since October 06, 2002 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Giants are 8-0 OU (16.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Eagles are 11-0 OU (12.7 ppg) since November 14, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after playing on the road.

Buccaneers at 49ers – The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-15.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 18, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 6-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 17, 1989 as a home favorite when they won by 1-3 points last week against a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since November 26, 1995 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The 49ers are 7-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since October 14, 2002 after playing at home versus the Rams.

Browns at Jaguars – The Browns are 7-0 ATS (10.7 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a dog the week after at home in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a home favorite versus any team with fewer wins. The Browns are 6-0 OU (14.5 ppg) since October 07, 2007 on the road when their dps was positive in their last two games. The Jaguars are 10-0 OU (13.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 as a favorite the week after in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.

Texans at Jets – The Texans are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since November 13, 2005 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Texans are 6-0 ATS (10.3 ppg) since December 26, 2004 as a road 7+ dog after playing on the road. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since October 26, 2008 as a favorite when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

Ravens at Panthers – The Panthers are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 06, 1998 as a home 7+ dog after playing as a dog. The League is 11-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 2009 on the road the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Panthers are 0-11 OU (-10.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 after playing the Buccaneers. The Panthers are 0-7 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a 7+ dog after playing on the road.

Colts at Patriots – The Colts are 9-0-1 ATS (4.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 04, 2000 within 3 of pick after playing as a dog. The Patriots are 8-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since October 20, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 0-9 OU (-9.9 ppg) since September 13, 1992 after their opponent played the Steelers. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (5.2 ppg) since September 19, 1999 within 3 of pick when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Falcons at Rams – The Falcons are 6-0-2 ATS (10.1 ppg) since September 15, 1991 within 3 of pick the week after in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 8-0 ATS (5.1 ppg) since October 23, 2005 the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-14.3 ppg) since October 27, 1991 as a dog after a loss on the road in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Falcons are 0-10 OU (-8.8 ppg) since December 29, 2002 as a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Rams are 6-0 OU (15.1 ppg) since November 16, 1997 at home the week after a straight up loss in which they committed 100+ yards of penalties.

Seahawks at Saints – The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 20, 2005 on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Seahawks are 0-10 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-7 ATS (-15.0 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 11, 1992 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Saints are 0-6 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since December 15, 2002 at home when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Seahawks are 12-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog versus any team with more wins after a straight up win. The Seahawks are 9-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 10, 1989 as a road 7+ dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak.

Raiders at Steelers – The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 02, 2003 the week after their bye. The Steelers are 9-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since October 29, 1995 at home the week after at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since November 11, 2007 as a favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-6 OU (-6.2 ppg) since October 03, 1993 as a road dog the week after their bye. The Steelers are 8-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since October 29, 2001 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 55% completions season-to-date. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.5 ppg) since December 15, 2002 as a 7+ favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.

Redskins at Titans – The Titans are 8-0 ATS (10.0 ppg) since November 17, 2002 at home the week after in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 ATS (10.2 ppg) since October 01, 2000 at home the week after on the road in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 6-0 OU (14.1 ppg) since October 31, 2004 at home when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Packers at Vikings – The Packers are 6-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since September 10, 1995 within 3 of pick at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (16.9 ppg) since November 15, 2009 at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Packers are 8-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since January 04, 2004 when they won and covered their last three games. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a home dog versus any team with more wins, after a straight up loss.

Broncos at Chargers – The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 23, 2003 the week after scoring 34+ points at home. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (11.1 ppg) since December 13, 1992 as a dog after playing at home as a dog. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 28, 2007 at home when they won and covered their last two games. The Broncos are 0-8 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Broncos are 7-0 OU (14.8 ppg) since December 17, 1994 as a 7+ dog when facing a team that has averaged fewer than four punts per game season-to-date.

Week 11 Home 'Chalk'
By Kevin Rogers

As we inch closer towards Thanksgiving, the playoff races are tightening up around the NFL heading into Week 11. However, there are several teams that have struggled to cover numbers at home on a consistent basis this season. We'll highlight four of these clubs, as well as one home underdog that continues to get disrespected by the oddsmakers.

Raiders at Steelers

Even though it may not seem like a huge deal now, it's amazing to think that Oakland is the team in this matchup that is leading its division, and not Pittsburgh. The Raiders are tied for the lead in the AFC West with the Chiefs at 5-4, but Oakland is riding a three-game winning streak heading into Heinz Field. The Steelers, meanwhile, try to put an embarrassing home performance against the Patriots behind them.

Pittsburgh's vaunted defense allowed 453 yards to New England in a 39-26 home loss as 4 ½-point favorites. The Pats stuck the Steelers in a 23-3 hole before Pittsburgh scored some late touchdowns to make the final more respectable. Following a 3-0 ATS start, the Steelers are just 2-4 ATS, while three of those losses have come since Ben Roethlisberger's return to the lineup. The 'over' has turned into a profitable play with Big Ben by hitting in four of his five starts.

The Raiders are the hottest ATS team in the league by covering five consecutive games, including four straight in the role of an underdog. Oakland's defense has stepped up after a shaky start by limiting its last four opponents to 54 points combined. Three of Oakland's four road games have finished 'over' the total, as Tom Cable's team dropped 59 points at Denver in their last highway contest in Week 7. The Raiders go for their second straight win at Heinz Field after knocking off the Steelers last season as 14 ½-point underdogs, 27-24.

Texans at Jets

Two teams going in opposite directions meet at the new Meadowlands as Houston looks to put a halt to a three-game skid. The Texans fell short on a Hail Mary pass in a 31-24 loss at Jacksonville, the fifth straight non-cover for Gary Kubiak's team. The Jets keep finding ways to win by picking up their second consecutive road overtime triumph with a 26-20 victory at Cleveland last week as 3 ½-point favorites.

New York received nearly identical pass plays in overtime the last two weeks from Mark Sanchez to Santonio Holmes, but the former Ohio State standout broke loose for a touchdown against the Browns to get a fortunate front-door cover. The Jets are undefeated on the road, while both losses have come at their new home as 'chalk' against the Ravens and Packers. New York has hit the 'over' in all seven victories, while the 'under' cashed in both losses.

The Texans can't stop anybody on defense, allowing at least 24 points in all nine games. Houston's offense is still strong, but inconsistent as the Texans have scored one touchdown or less in a half in each of its last five contests. The Jets have owned this series since Houston's arrival into the league in 2002, winning and covering all four matchups. New York won Sanchez's debut at Reliant Stadium last season, 24-7 as the Jets outgained the Texans, 462-183 in the yards department.

Lions at Cowboys

Dallas has a long way to go to get back into the NFC East race, but the Cowboys will take a 33-20 trouncing of the Giants last week for just their second win of the season. Jason Garrett's team returns to "The House that Jerry Jones Financed" when the Cowboys go for consecutive wins for the first time in 2010 against the Lions.

Detroit is close to turning the corner, but somehow can't finish the job as the Lions lost their fourth game by less than three points at Buffalo last week. The Lions are a strong ATS play this season at 7-2, while not being able to stave off the Bears and Jets late. The one consistent element for Detroit is the ability to nail 'overs,' doing so in five of the last six games.

The Cowboys are a disappointing 0-5 ATS when laying points this season, while owning an 0-4 SU/ATS mark at home. Playing at Cowboys Stadium isn't helping the Dallas defense, which has allowed at least 27 points in all four home defeats. With the ineptitude of the defense (and the quick resurgence of the offense last week), the Cowboys are riding a six-game 'over' streak.

Bills at Bengals

Two teams that are a combined 3-15 SU and 7-10-1 ATS meet in Cincinnati as the Bills go for their second straight victory. Buffalo edged Detroit last week to finally break through the win column after eight straight losses to start the season, while Cincinnati couldn't shake an early deficit in a 23-17 loss at Indianapolis.

The Bengals aren't a great play when laying points, compiling a 1-10 ATS mark since the start of last season. The only cover came in a Week 3 triumph over lowly Carolina as three-point 'chalk,' 20-7. For all the weapons that the Cincinnati offense possesses, the Bengals have scored over 21 points just twice this season, both coming in losses at New England and Atlanta.

Despite the inability to win through the first eight games prior to the Detroit victory, Buffalo hung tough in three-point losses to Baltimore, Kansas City, and Chicago (2-0-1 ATS). One big key is the massive improvement on the defensive side of the ball for Chan Gailey's club, who has allowed 16.5 ppg the last three contests after giving up at least 34 points in each of the previous five defeats.

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

When will the ‘over’ run come to a stop? Bookmakers have been cleaning up with the underdogs cashing this season but the ‘over’ tickets have lessened the blow to the betting public. Week 9 watched the ‘over’ go 10-3 and Week 10 wasn’t much different, as the ‘over’ put out an 11-3 mark. And if you look at the three ‘under’ tickets, the only clear-cut winner was Buffalo’s 14-12 decision over Detroit. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at an eye opening 83-59-2 (58%). Will things balance out? We asked that question to VegasInsider.com handicapper and total expert Paul Bovi.

He responded, “There are several theories behind the trend including those that feel that defensive players have been taken out of their games due to the hefty fines that have been levied as a result of the questionable hits that have garnered an unprecedented level of attention as compared to years' past. That said, less than stellar defenses are certainly a contributing factor as are blowouts, the latter making for an onslaught of meaningless touchdowns as was the case last week with three games.”

“Philadelphia-Washington, Pittsburgh-New England and Denver-Kansas City saw combined scores of 87, 65 and 78 points. Whatever the reason, the cure for these high totals will undoubtedly be high totals. Lines makers will eventually make the proper adjustments and the public will continue to buy in until the pendulum swings in the other direction. That's a certainty.”

After watching Chicago blank Miami 16-0 on Thursday, the first total of the week sided with the ‘under.’ With no teams on bye in Week 11, bettors will have 15 more totals to wager on the rest of the weekend.

Non-Divisional Battles

VI’s Paul Bovi mentioned above that totals might balance out due to higher numbers and weather, but another factor is familiarity. The last three weeks of the regular season are loaded with divisional battles, with hopes of creating meaningful games. Perhaps that’s when the low-scoring affairs will come through. Until then, let’s look at a handful of non-divisional contests and some key notes on each.

Oakland at Pittsburgh: The Raiders have played four games on the road and three of them have gone ‘over’ the number. Pittsburgh was once known for its defense, but the unit has given up 22, 20, 21 and 39 points in the last four. The ‘over’ is 3-1 during this run.

Houston at N.Y. Jets: New York has been a crazy ‘over’ team on the road (5-0) but the totals have gone 2-2 at home. Meanwhile, the Texans have allowed 28 PPG away from home. The ‘over’ has gone 3-1 in the four instances for Houston and the one ‘under’ came with a 50-point total at Indy.

Baltimore at Carolina: Every game this week has a number over 40, except this matchup. The Ravens have watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 on the road and the one winner was the Bad Beat ‘over’ ticket at Atlanta on Oct. 11. Carolina has scored over 20 points once and they’re starting a guy at quarterback, Brian St. Pierre, who just got signed. This writer advises a team total ‘under’ on the Panthers as well.

Arizona at Kansas City: The Chiefs and Cardinals have a total of 44 and while both defensive units had shown weakness, neither offense is very consistent. Look at Arizona, who has put 17, 7, 10, 10 and 24 on the road. Could be a blowout and the point-spread (KC -9) says so but you wonder if the Cards can score in this spot.

Seattle at New Orleans: Last year, the Saints-Over combination was money in the bank for gamblers. But guess what? It hasn’t hit this year. Will this be the week? Off the bye, with the expected return of Reggie Bush, some bettors might be ready to pull the trigger here. Prior to last week’s 36-point outburst at Arizona, Seattle averaged 10.8 PPG in the previous four road games. Dare we say a 38-9 win by the Saints?

Under the Lights

MNF heads to the West Coast this weekend as Denver and San Diego meet in an important AFC clash, especially with Kansas City and Oakland holding a tight lead on the division. Does that mean we’re going to get a tight affair tonight with each coach being a little more conservative? The total is hovering around 50 points and playing ‘over’ tickets this high in divisional games is always dangerous. However, both Denver (6-2-1) and San Diego (6-3) have been solid ‘over’ plays this season. Plus, they like to air it out and that obviously increases the opportunity for big plays on both sides of the ball. Six of the last eight in this series have been ‘over’ winners, so the tendency for high-scoring affairs is there. Plus, San Diego is off the bye so it should be ready to go for this matchup. Last week, Denver played after a week off and they dropped 49 on the scoreboard. Will we see that again?

Last Monday was the easiest ‘over’ ticket of the regular season, with Philadelphia putting up 45 at the break against Washington. It’s doubtful you’ll see that happen again, but the books have been taking a beating with the ‘over’ in primetime games this season. We mentioned that Thursday’s affair between the Bears and Fins went ‘under’ but was that due to the matchup?

Fearless Predictions

We split the Best Bets last week, winning with the Arizona-Seattle ‘over’ and losing with the Cowboys-Giants ‘under.’ On the season, we’re 5-4 (+60) in that department. Fortunately, we did hit our three-team teaser again and on the year, we’re 3-1 (+200). The bankroll is still in the black (+260) and we’re looking for another sweep this weekend.

Best Over: Seattle-New Orleans 44

Best Under: Baltimore-Carolina 37.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Seattle-New Orleans 35
Under N.Y. Giants-Philadelphia 57.5
Under Baltimore-Carolina 46.5

vegasinsider.com

Week 11's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By SCOTT COOLEY

Oakland Raiders at Pittsburgh Steelers (-7, 41.5)

Raiders pass rush vs. Steelers O-line

If the Steelers offensive line doesn’t heal quickly Ben Roethlisberger is going to get dropped more times than he did last season (50). That unit lost left tackle Max Starks for the year and left guard Chris Kemoeatu will miss another game or two.

The effects of the injuries were felt last week when the Patriots sacked Big Ben five times. The inexperienced line failed to pick up blitzes and has now yielded 12 takedowns over the last four games.

Richard Seymour and his pass-rushing crew are wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks. They’ve recorded 15 sacks during their three-game winning streak and are tied for second-most in the league with 27. Don’t forget the Raiders upset Pittsburgh on the road last season as 14.5-point underdogs.

Houston Texans at New York Jets (-7, 45.5)

Texans pass defense vs. Jets pass offense

When it looked like the Texans pass defense couldn't get any worse, it blew an opportunity for overtime on the last play of the game versus Jacksonville. Glover Quin did exactly what he was coached to do and then Mike Thomas got an early Christmas present.

New York has been getting away from the run game, which could be its ultimate demise, but there won’t be any need to ground and pound this week. Houston allows more than 300 yards per contest through the air—the NFL’s worst mark—and has surrendered a total of 22 passing touchdowns against just five interceptions.

Six receivers have eclipsed the 100-yard barrier versus the Texans secondary this season. Santonio Holmes has caught fire over the last two games and had a walk-off touchdown reception last week, so he could be poised for a big Sunday.

Washington Redskins at Tennessee Titans (-7, 44)

Donovan McNabb vs. Titans defense

The five-year $78 million contract extension Donovan McNabb signed last week might not be worth the paper it’s printed on after this contest.

McNabb has been anything but a franchise quarterback in recent weeks. He’s had 17 completions in each of his last three outings and thrown six picks and four scores in that stretch. His rating of 75.2 is the third-lowest among starting quarterbacks and he works behind a poor offensive line.

Tennessee’s defensive line has registered the second-most sacks (27) in the NFL. Jeff Fisher subs out D-linemen with frequency so they stay fresh and exert maximum effort on every down. The Titans defense as a whole has 20 takeaways this year including 14 interceptions.

Buffalo Bills at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44)

Bills motivation vs. Bengals motivation

Two teams were under the motivation microscope last week. The Cowboys responded and the Bengals did not.

Prior to the game versus the Colts, Chad Ochocinco said on his reality show that Cincinnati had dug itself into a hole it could not climb out of. On the same segment his partner in crime stated that the Bungles were the laughingstock of the league. These guys might be more concerned with their celebrity status than winning football games.

On the other side of this matchup, no one has questioned the Bills’ effort, even when they were 0-8. Veteran Reggie Torbor has been on a few teams in his career that have quit but protests this Buffalo squad works hard each and every week. Ryan Fitzpatrick has some extra motivation playing against the team he spent two seasons with.

"No, it's not just another game for me," Fitzpatrick said. "It definitely means a lot to be going against the guys that I played with for a couple of years."

Colts at Patriots: What Bettors Need to Know

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-4, 50)

The New England Patriots turned in their finest performance of the season a week ago with a lopsided victory in Pittsburgh.

Their reward? A visit from Peyton Manning and the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday.

One of the league's best non-division rivalries will resume for the eighth consecutive season, highlighted by the marquee quarterback matchup between four-time league MVP Manning and three-time Super Bowl winner Tom Brady.

Matchup History

After struggling against the Patriots for much of the early part of his career, Manning has had the upper hand in the rivalry in recent years as the Colts have won four of the past five matchups.

That includes last season's stunning 35-34 victory in Indianapolis, when the Colts roared back from a 17-point fourth-quarter deficit and capitalized on a stunning gamble by New England coach Bill Belichick, who went for it on fourth-and-2 deep in his own territory with just over two minutes to play.

Manning and the Colts are 4-1-1 against the spread versus the Patriots since 2005.

“They (the Pats) are a good team, arguably playing as well as anybody and it’s a tough place to play,” Colts coach Jim Caldwell told reporters. “It’s always been a huge rivalry because both teams have been playing well whenever we’ve met, so there’s a lot at stake.”

Injury Report

Manning has led the injury-riddled Colts (6-3) to four wins in the last five games to move atop the AFC South with a one-game lead over Tennessee and Jacksonville.

Manning was without two of his best weapons in tight end Dallas Clark and wide receiver Austin Collie as well as running backs Joseph Addai and Mike Hart. Clark is lost for the season, Addai and Hart are expected to miss and Austin Collie looks like he’ll be a game-day decision.

Clark had great success in the past gashing the middle of the Patriots' secondary, and Manning will likely look to continue to feed his replacement, Jacob Tamme, who has 24 receptions and two touchdowns in the last three games.

New England is relatively healthy with safety Patrick Chung as its only questionable starter.

Back To Business

The Patriots rebounded from a 20-point loss to Cleveland and dominated in all phases in their win over Pittsburgh, blitzing often and sacking quarterback Ben Roethlisberger five times.

They are likely to employ a similar strategy against Manning, who has been sacked 12 times – more than his 2009 season total – including five in the last two weeks.

Brady threw for a season-high 350 yards and three touchdowns – all to rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski – in carving up the Pittsburgh secondary.

Pound The Ground

New England will to establish its ground game against the Colts, who have the 27th-rated rushing defense in the NFL. It will also keep Manning from attacking New England’s 30th-ranked pass defense.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 87 yards on 18 carries last week and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, but he also has had three games in which he rushed for 24 yards or less.

As mentioned, the Colts are missing starting running back Joseph Addai, which means Donald Brown will get the start in the backfield. He finished with 69 rushing yards and a touchdown in Indy’s win over Cincy but he’s averaging just 3.3 yards per carry this season.

Home And Away

The Patriots have scored a league-high 258 points and are 4-0 at home, but their suspect defense has surrendered at least 20 points in seven of their nine games.

Brady can make history Sunday when he goes for his 25th consecutive home win, which would tie Brett Favre for the longest streak in NFL annals.

Indy is 2-3 (2-2-1 ATS) on the road this season and is surrendering 25.6 points in its five away games compared to just 14.3 points at home.

Line Moves

Oddsmakers opened Pats -3 but the line has been bet up to Colts +4. The total opened at 50 got bet down to 49 but is back at 50 or 50.5 at most shops.

Trends

The Colts are 9-1-2 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record and 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs.

The Pats are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games overall but just 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning record.

NFL Betting Preview: Indianapolis vs New England
By Jeff Mattingly

Indianapolis arrives in Foxborough with a 6-3 record and a banged up football team to take on the first-place New England Patriots. "They are a good football team, arguably playing as well as anybody and it's a tough place to play," said Colts head coach Jim Caldwell. "It's always been a huge rivalry because both teams have been playing well whenever we've met, so there's a lot at stake." The past five meetings in the series have been decided by seven points or less, with quarterback Peyton Manning winning five of the last six. Indianapolis is 6-2 ATS as an underdog over the last three years and 3-0 ATS this season when playing against a team with a winning record.

The Colts hold a one-game lead over Tennessee and Jacksonville in the AFC South standings despite being decimated with injuries. Manning is without the services of tight end Dallas Clark and wide receivers Austin Collie and Anthony Gonzalez. "Every Sunday is about surviving," said Reggie Wayne. "Every game is going to be tough, no matter who we have out there." In his last six games against New England (including postseason play), Manning has completed 140 of 220 passes for 1,802 yards, 13 touchdowns and six interceptions.

New England is nearly impossible to beat at home and has won 24 regular-season games in a row at Gillette Stadium. The Patriots are also coming off an impressive 39-26 win at Pittsburgh last Sunday night, as quarterback Tom Brady threw for a season-high 350 yards and three touchdowns. "We made big plays when we needed to make them," said Brady. "It's an exciting game for us in this locker room." At New England, the Patriots are 24-12 in this series, but have lost their last two games to the Colts at home. The team is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points.

The Patriots have had no problems scoring points in this series, putting up 20 or more points against the Colts in 19 of their last 21 meetings. Brady was 29-of-42 for 375 yards and three touchdowns in last year's 35-34 loss at Lucas Oil Stadium, a game in which his team led by 17 points going into the fourth quarter. Expect wide receiver Wes Welker to play a key role in this big-time contest, after having a season-high 89 receiving yards last week. His eight catches versus the Steelers also matched the eight grabs he had in the season opener.

Bettors are likely to back the Colts due to their 12-4-2 ATS mark in road games, while the Patriots are 37-18-1 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points.

NFL Betting Preview: Oakland at Pittsburgh
By Jeff Mattingly

Oakland travels to Heinz Field in Pittsburgh this week to take on the Steelers in a 2010 regular season Week 11 match up. The Raiders currently lead the AFC Western division and will need o play a physical game to pull of an upset this week. "We're playing a physical opponent, a team that likes to throw the ball but has the ability to run it, a team that prides themselves on stopping the run and likes to rush the passer," said head coach Tom Cable. Don't expect this team to be intimidated in Sunday's atmosphere against a hungry home team, as it came away with a 27-24 win in Pittsburgh last season. The team is 3-2 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points and 11-6 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record.

The Raiders offense will be facing a defense that leads the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (63.2) and will need to find safety Troy Polamalu before every snap. "He's all over the place," said quarterback Jason Campbell. "He's all over the field. He's been that way his entire career." On the other side of the ball, Oakland's defense ranks second in the NFL in passing defense, which may prove useful in containing Pittsburgh quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. The unit has surrendered just 236 yards per game during their winning streak.

Pittsburgh needs this game in a big way after suffering its worst loss at Heinz Field since December 24, 2006, when dropping a 39-26 contest to the New England Patriots last week. "You can't start dredging up things from the past," said safety Ryan Clark. "This is one night, and one night we need to get better from." The Steelers own an 8-10 record all-time against the Raiders, including a 4-5 mark at home. It will be important for the league's best rush defense to contain Oakland running back Darren McFadden, who leads the NFL with 108.1 rushing yards per game. The team is 0-4 ATS this season when playing a team with a winning record.

The Steelers may become dependent on Roethlisberger in this contest and he leads the NFL with 1,304 passing yards since Week 6. Pittsburgh is dealing with a growling list of injuries that includes many on the offensive line that has caused problems for the rushing attack. Head coach Mike Tomlin has also changed some things up this week, having his players in full pads in a Wednesday practice for the first time since early in the season.

Bettors may back the Raiders due to their 8-2 ATS mark in Week 11 games, while the Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a double-digit loss at home.

Tips and Trends

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

PACKERS: (-3, O/U 44) Green Bay has won their past 3 games heading into tonight, yet are also coming off their bye week. Time and time again we've seen teams that were successful going into their bye week coming out a bit sluggish after their time off. The Packers are 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS overall this season. As great as this Packers offense is, their defense doesn't get the same credit. Green Bay is only allowing 15.9 PPG this year, 2nd best in the NFL. Green Bay is tied for the NFL lead with 28 sacks this year. The Packers are averaging nearly 25 PPG this season, 9th best in football. QB Aaron Rodgers is having an MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for 2,300 YDS and 15 TD's while completing better than 63% of his passes. The Packers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games played in November. Green Bay is 7-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. The Packers are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Packers are 22-10-1 ATS in their last 33 road games. The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite up to a field goal.

Packers are 18-8 ATS last 26 games against the NFC North.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games as a road favorite.

Key Injuries - WR Donald Driver (quad) is questionable.

Projected Score: 21

VIKINGS: Minnesota gets their opportunity for revenge tonight, as they have already lost to the Packers this season. The Vikings lost 24-28 SU to the Packers less than a month ago. Minnesota has been a disappointment all year long, as they are just 3-6 SU on the season. The Vikings are also only 2-7 ATS this year, with both ATS wins coming at home. The Vikings are averaging just 18.8 PPG this year, 7th worst in the NFL. QB Brett Favre has struggled this year and is banged up. Favre has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS, but has 16 INT's against only 10 TD's. RB Adrian Peterson has rushed for 908 YDS this season, 2nd most in the NFL. Defensively, Minnesota has allowed each of their past 4 opponents to score at least 24 PTS. The Vikings are allowing 21.7 PPG for the entire season. Minnesota is 0-5 ATS as the listed underdog this season. The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games against a team with a winning road record. Minnesota is 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 home games overall. The Vikings are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. Minnesota is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog. The Vikings are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall.

Vikings are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as the listed underdog.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Sidney Rice (hip) is questionable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles

GIANTS: New York had won 5 consecutive games before losing in shocking fashion at home last week to Dallas. The Giants were embarrassed 20-33 SU, and want nothing more than to get right back on the field. New York is 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS overall this season. The Giants are 3-1 both SU and ATS overall on the road this season. New York is averaging 26.2 PPG this year, 6th best in the NFL. QB Eli Manning has thrown for nearly 2,500 YDS this season, including 19 TD's. RB Ahman Bradshaw has been brilliant this year, rushing for 838 YDS and 5 TD's. WR Hakeem Nicks is having a breakout season in his own right, with 735 receiving YDS and 9 TD's this season. New York is allowing 21.4 PPG this year. The Giants are effective on defense because of their intimidation factor, as their pass rushers have injured numerous QB's this year. The Giants are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a double-digit loss at home. New York is 21-7 ATS in their last 28 road games. The Giants are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU loss. New York is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games played on grass. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Giants are 12-4 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games against the NFC East.

Key Injuries - TE Kevin Boss (abdominal) is probable.

Projected Score: 23 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

EAGLES: (-3, O/U 48.5) Philadelphia has quickly become one of the favorites to challenge for the Super Bowl this year. QB Michael Vick is a huge reason for the Eagles success this season, both on the field and with ratings. There is no doubting that Vick brings instant excitement to the field and to the television screen. The Eagles are 6-3 SU and 4-5 ATS overall this season. Philadelphia is 2-2 SU and 1-3 ATS in home game this year. Vick leads an offense that is averaging 28.6 PPG, 2nd best in the NFL. Philadelphia is 1 of 3 teams that is averaging more than 400 YPG this season. Vick leads the entire NFL with a 115.1 QB Rating this year. Defensively, the Eagles are allowing 23.2 PPG, but that statistic is a bit misleading. Plenty of points have been scored against the Eagles in garbage time. The Eagles have been a big play defense all year long, something they hope to continue as they inch near the playoffs. The Eagles are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game. Philadelphia is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Philadelphia is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite. The Eagles are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against the NFC East. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.

Eagles are 7-1 ATS last 8 games as a favorite up to a field goal.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games played on grass.

Key Injuries - DB Ellis Hobbs (hip) is out.

Projected Score: 21