NFL News and Notes Sunday 11/22

Week 11 NFL games

Browns (1-8) @ Lions (1-8)-- Cleveland star Cribbs got concussion on game's last play Monday, another nail in Mangini's coffin; Quinn was 0-7 on passes of 10+ yards. Browns scored five offensive TDs on 101 drives this year, with 43 3/outs and 25 turnovers. Detroit is no great shakes either; their only win is 19-14 over Redskins (+6) in Week 3- they're 0-1 as a fave. Under is 6-2 in last eight Cleveland games, 3-1 in last four Lion tilts. Browns' passing yardage the last five games: 22-106-81-74-74- they scored six or less points in six of their last eight games. NFC North home favorites are 1-5 vs spread in non-division games; AFC North road dogs are 4-3.

Bills (3-6) @ Jaguars (5-4)-- Buffalo fired Jauron Tuesday, then took half the day replacing him, so they're unplayable this week for sure; Bills allowed 72 points in last two games (six TDs/20 drives) after allowing total of 28 points (two TDs/40 drives) in three games before that. Four of last five Buffalo games stayed under the total; six of last eight Jaguar games went over. Jaguars won three of last four games, but they're 0-3 as favorite this year, winning at home by 20-3-3 points. Buffalo covered three of its four games as a road dog, losing away games by 1-28-24 points. AFC South home favorites are 3-6 vs spread; AFC East dogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road.

Steelers (6-3) @ Chiefs (2-7)-- Kansas City was unimpressive in winning at Oakland Sunday, now they've lost best WR Bowe for four weeks, they had been improving-- only once in last five games (4-1 vs spread) have they lost by more than six points. Chiefs are 0-4 at home (1-2 as home dog) losing by 11-3-6-30 points. Steelers were held without TD last week; they're 2-2 away from home, winning by 8-18 points (1-3 as road fave). Chief coach Haley is son of Dick Haley, who was Steelers' personnel director in their glory years of the 70's. Last three Pittsburgh games stayed under total. AFC North favorites are 6-5, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9, 4-3 at home.

Colts (9-0) @ Ravens (5-4)-- Undefeated Colts head back to city they bolted in dark of night 25 years ago; five of their nine wins are by four or less points, the last three by 4-3-1 points- they've actually been more impressive on road, winning by 4-21-22-36 points. Baltimore allowed total of 24 points in its last three games (three TDs/32 drives) but their offense was awful Monday- they have two TDs on last 21 drives, and have total of nine first half points in their last four games. Four of last five Raven games stayed under total. AFC South road teams are 8-4 vs spread out of their division. AFC North home teams are 5-5. Indy rushing yardage in last three games: 61-72-91. Not so good.

Falcons (5-4) @ Giants (5-4)-- Two skidding teams collide here; Atlanta is 1-3 in last four games, losing last three road games by 16-8-9 points- they're 1-4 on road with only win 45-10 at Candlestick (1-3 as road dog). Giants lost last four games before the bye, allowing 33.3 ppg (18 TDs on last 48 drives). Last four Falcon games and six of nine Giant games went over total. Giants are 3-4 as a favorite, 1-3 at home. Atlanta ran ball for 161-181-176 yards in last three games, but loss of Turner (ankle) hurts rushing attack. Giants allowed double figure second half points in seven of nine games. NFC South underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 4-5 on road. NFC East favorites are 10-10, 6-5 at home.

49ers (4-5) @ Packers (5-4)-- Both teams snapped losing skids last week with strong defensive efforts; Niners lost four of last five games; they're 0-5 when they allow more than 16 points, 4-0 when they don't- they are 3-0-1 as a road dog, losing away games by 3-3-4 points. Packers lost two of last three games, but are 3-2 as home favorite, with wins by 6-26-10 points- they held four of last five opponents under 280 total yards. AFC West road underdogs are 8-2 against spread; NFC North home favorites are 1-5. Rodgers has been sacked 16 times in last three games. Green Bay is 5-0 when it allows 17 or less pts, 0-4 if they allow 30+. 49ers average 19.8 ppg on the road.

Seahawks (3-6) @ Vikings (8-1)-- Seattle was outscored 67-13 in second half of last four games; they had 14-0 lead in Arizona last week, couldn't cover as an 8-point dog, much less win- they're 0-4 as road underdog, losing games on foreign soil by 13-17-21-11 points. Vikings are 1-2-1 as a home favorite, with home wins by 3-7-2-17. NFC West dogs are 9-6, 8-2 on road. Favorites from NFC North are 9-3, 6-2 at home. Hasselbeck threw seven INTs in his last two games; he's been sacked 14 times in his last four. Five of eight Viking wins are by 12+ points. Last three Seattle games, five of last seven Minnesota games went over the total.

Redskins (3-6) @ Cowboys (6-3)-- Dallas had four-game win streak snapped by Packers last week; they've allowed nine sacks, had total of just 137 yards on ground last two weeks, so offensive line is struggling. Four of Redskins' last five visits to Dallas were decided by five or less points (dogs 4-1 vs spread); Washington is 5-3 in last eight series games, they lost four of last five games overall, are 2-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 6-5-3-14 points (they are the only team to lose to Lions). NFC East home favorites are 0-4 vs spread in division tilts. Three of four Dallas home games went over total; six of last eight Redskin games stayed under.

Saints (9-0) @ Buccaneers (1-8)-- New Orleans failed to cover last three games since their wild comeback in Miami (won 46-34 after trailing 24-6); Saints are 3-1 as road favorite, winning away games by 26-20-12-5 points. Bucs came off bye playing better, beating Packers, barely losing in Miami- they scored five TDs on last 26 drives, after three TDs on last 56 drives before the bye. Tampa is 3-6 vs spread as a dog in '09, 1-3 at home. Favorites are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Saints' run defense is struggling, allowing 154.4 yards per game over their last four games, which is why they're struggling to put teams away. Both teams saw four of their last five games go over total.

Cardinals (6-3) @ Rams (1-8)-- St Louis is first team in NFL history to play three consecutive home games against unbeaten teams, now NFC champs come to town, with their QB a St Louis icon. Arizona plays better on road- they're 4-0 on road, winning by 14-24-7-20 points (they were underdog in all four of those games). Redbirds outscored last five foes 69-26 in second half. Rams are trying hard, getting better, but they're talent-shy; only one of their five WRs was on team when season started. Four of Rams' last five games, Arizona's last three games went over total. Underdog is 7-2 vs spread in Cardinals games this season, with Redbirds 2-3 against the spread as a favorite.

Jets (4-5) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Jersey (+3.5) won first meeting 16-9 in Week 2, outscoring Pats 13-0 in second half, holding Brady to 4.9 yards/pass, but now Jets are 1-5 in last six games and allowed 30-24 points in last two games after giving up 17 or less points in five of first seven games. Interesting to see how New England bounces back after losing 35-34 in last minute at Indy last week, especially after head coach's ill-fated gamble helped cause the defeat. Patriots gained 619-414-432-477 yards in last four games; think they'll even score with a mouthy Jet squad that has lost its swagger. Four of last five Jet games went over the total. Underdogs are 6-0 vs spread in AFC East divisional games.

Bengals (7-2) @ Raiders (2-7)-- Huge trap game for Bengals after beating the Steelers last week; only two of Cincinnati's wins are by more than 7 points. Cincy is 0-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they're 4-0 on road, but wins are by 7-3-3-6 points. Raiders lost three in row, six of last seven, as average of 8.5 ppg in last eight games (five TDs on 93 drives). Oakland is 4-4 as an underdog this year, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 4-20-38-6 pts. AFC North favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 8-9 vs spread, 4-3 at home. Under is 6-2 in Oakland's last eight games, 3-1-1 in last five Bengal contests. Cincy allowed 29 points in last three games.

Chargers (5-4) @ Broncos (6-3)-- Denver lost last three games after 6-0 start; not sure how Orton's ankle is, but it better be healthy, since backup is Simms (was 3-13 for 13 yards, INT at Washington). Broncos won first meeting with Bolts, running kick and punt back for TD in 34-23 win, outscoring Chargers 17-3 in second half (SD also ran kick back for TD in that game). Under is 7-2 in Denver games this season. Home team is 1-6 vs spread in AFC West games this season. San Diego ties for first place with win; they've won four games in row, scoring 28.3 ppg- they're also 3-1 on road, 1-1 as a dog. Red flag for the Broncos is that, in last three games, they allowed 125-173-174 rush yards.

Eagles (5-4) @ Bears (4-5)-- McNabb comes home after passing for 433 yards in loss at San Diego where Philly ran out of time on last drive, but Eagles lost last two games, are 2-2 on road, 0-4 when they score 23 or less points. Bears lost four of last five games; in three night games this season, Cutler threw 11 INTs in 12 quarters. Last three teams Bears beat are Seahawks-Lions-Browns, not exactly great wins. Chicago threw 99 passes, ran ball 113 times in last two games, terrible balance. NFC East favorites are 10-10 vs spread, 5-6 on road. NFC North underdogs are 4-6 vs spread, but 4-0 at home. Seven of nine Philly games went over total.

Monday, November 23

Titans (3-6) @ Texans (5-4)-- Much like McNabb, Vince Young comes home, but he is on roll, leading Titans to three straight wins, scoring 38.3 ppg (nine TDs on last 31 drives with one turnover) after they had no TDs on 22 drives with seven turnovers in Collins' last two starts. Underdogs are 6-2 vs spread in AFC South games so far this season. Texans had bye last week; they've won three of last four games, are 2-2 at home. Texans (+7) won first meeting 34-31 in Nashville, despite being outrushed 240-63; Schaub was 25-39/357 passing, averaging 9.2 yards/attempt. Under is 4-1-1 in last six Houston games, 2-6 in last eight Titan tilts.

Total Talk - Week 11
By Chris David

Week 10 Recap

The scoreboard operator was working hard last week, as the ‘over’ prevailed with a 9-6 record. Five the six that went ‘under’ the number also cashed first-half ‘under’ tickets for players too. The lone exception was the Kansas City-Oakland matchup out West, which saw the Chiefs own a 13-10 lead at the break. Like clockwork, the Raiders were blanked in the final 30 minutes, and lost 16-10. For the second straight week and third time this season, the Monday Night Football showdown went ‘under’ the number. On the year, the ‘over’ stands at 76-68-2 (53%).

Next week is Thanksgiving, which has three games on the docket:

Green Bay at Detroit
Oakland at Dallas
N.Y. Giants at Denver

On paper, most would probably agree that all three of these contests wouldn't be classified as shootouts.

Fifty-Plus

The Saints and Buccaneers clash at Raymond James Stadium on Sunday and the oddsmakers opened the total at 51. The line seems fair, considering New Orleans is averaging a league-best 36.8 PPG, and its defense has added seven scores through nine games as well. Plus, the Saints face a Tampa defense that is ranked second worst in scoring (28.4 PPG).

After starting the year strong defensively, the Saints have surrendered 27, 34, 27, 20 and 23 points in the last five games. Tampa Bay isn't an offensive juggernaut by any means but it has posted 38 and 23 in the last two weeks, and Raheem Morris' defense is very opportunistic as well.

Even though the statistics on paper can justify an 'over' play, gamblers should be weary of the 50-spot the books posted. So far this year, there have been seven games that featured totals of 50 points or more and the 'under' has gone 5-2 (71%) in those contests. New Orleans has been featured in four of those games and the totals went 2-2.

We're still a week away, but the Saints host the Patriots in Week 12 on MNF and the total is expected to be the highest of the year. "That total should come out between 51 and 53 and we're expecting heavy 'over' betting that could push it up as high as 54 or 55," said betED.com Sportsbook Manager Randy Scott.

Perfect at Home

As the second-half of the regular season continues, total players can start to identify trends for certain clubs on either the road or at home. After 10 weeks, three teams have seen all of their games go 'under' or 'over' at home.

Jacksonville has watched the 'over' go 4-0 at home this year. This Sunday, Buffalo visits the Sunshine State with a new coach, Perry Fewell. The Bills will start Ryan Fitzpatrick (240 yards, 2 INTs) behind center and he's been horrible this year. The 'under' has gone 2-0 in both of his starts. Looking the four home games for the Jaguars, the first two were clear-cut 'over' tickets against Arizona (17-31) and Tennessee (37-17) but the last two against the Rams (23-20) and Chiefs (24-21) were sweat shops. The Bills have seen the 'under' go 3-2 on the road. The number (43) seems a little high, considering these two have played the last three years and the totals were 35.5, 37 and 37.

It's easy to sit here and knock St. Louis for its 0-4 record at home this year but you have to look at its schedule. Could anybody else have done better against the Packers (17-36), Vikings (10-38), Colts (6-42) and Saints (23-28)? The results have produced an 'over' record of 4-0 and it could be 5-0 when Arizona comes to town on Sunday. The Cardinals have played better on the road (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) this year and the recent meetings are scary. Arizona has put up 34, 34, 48, 34 and 34 in the last five versus the Rams. The 'over' has only gone 3-2 during this stretch because St. Louis has had trouble matching points. Will the trend continue?

The Denver Broncos have surrendered 30, 28 and 27 points in their last three games but the defense is still only giving up 16.8 PPG on the season, which is ranked fourth in the NFL. At home, the number dips slightly to 15.3 PPG and could be lower if they didn't give up 21 points to Pittsburgh in a MNF loss on Nov. 9. We note this game because the Steelers were the first team all year to score on the Broncos at home in the second-half. Despite Pitt's outburst, the 'under' still cashed. On the year, the 'under' is now 4-0 from Invesco Field at Mile High. This week, some books put up a tentative number of 42 against the Chargers but that could dip because Denver QB Kyle Orton might not suit up. Six of the last seven in this series has gone 'over' the total, including their first meeting this season on Oct. 19, which saw three special teams touchdowns help the cause.

MNF Shootout in Houston?

The Texans and Titans have been known to light up the scoreboard whenever they tangle and their first go 'round on Sept. 20 this season proved that. Houston captured a 34-31 decision over Tennessee and the game was 'over' by halftime (24-24). Six of the last seven in this series has gone 'over' the number and it appears the oddsmakers have adjusted accordingly for this week (48).

Houston was known as a solid 'over' play last year but this season has been different. The Texans have watched the 'under' go 6-3 and surprisingly the team has only put more than 30 points on one occasion, the aforementioned win over the Titans.

The Titans' offense struggled during their 0-6 start, yet the team has posted 30, 34 and 41 in three games with Vince Young behind center. The gun slinger has been anything but one, yet he's been smart (1 INT) with the football and elusive (1 Sack) during this run. Chris Johnson deserves all the credit for Tennessee's explosion. The running back has totaled 631 yards and 6 TDs over the last three.

The 'under' has cashed in two straight under the MNF lights, but the 'over' is still 8-3 on the season.

Fearless Predictions:

Last week talked about how we’re getting close and unfortunately I couldn’t have been more wrong. The Best Bets fell to 9-9 (-90) on the season and we couldn’t even cash a teaser. That mark fell to 2-7 (-500) and is really making us believe that teasers are sucker bets or perhaps we just suck. Based on one-unit plays, we’re down $590 and the second-half of the season is dwindling. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Jets-Patriots 45

Best Under: Jaguars-Bills 42.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Jets-Patriots 36
Under Jaguars-Bills 49.5
Under Saints-Buccaneers 60

vegasinsider.com

Trend Setters - Week 11
By Kevin Rogers

Now that we've hit the second half of the NFL season, more tangible facts are coming to light regarding most of the league. This week, we'll take a look at five games that own plenty of valuable trends, including the AFC showdown in Baltimore between the Ravens and Colts.

Colts (-1, 44) at Ravens

Indianapolis remains one of the two unbeaten teams in the NFL at 9-0, after squeaking by New England last week, 35-34. The Ravens, meanwhile, are still alive in the AFC Wild Card race following their Monday night shutout of the Browns.

The Colts have owned the Ravens recently, winning each of the last six meetings, dating back to 2002. In fact, Indianapolis outscored Baltimore by an average of 14.6 ppg in those six victories, including a 31-3 blowout last season. The Colts have struggled off a close win, going 1-6 ATS on the road since 1998 off a 1-3 point victory. However, over the last six seasons, the Colts are 7-3 to the 'over' coming off a 1-3 point triumph.

The Ravens have fared well under John Harbaugh off a SU win, going 12-5 ATS since the start of last season. Baltimore has burned tickets following a solid defensive effort, compiling a 1-5 ATS mark since 2001 after allowing three points or less in its last game.

Falcons at Giants (-6½, 46)

New York returns from the bye, as the Giants try to snap a four-game skid. Things were rosy for Tom Coughlin's team at 5-0, but the wheels have fallen off the wagon with an 0-4 SU/ATS skid. The Falcons, meanwhile, have dropped four of five games away from the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta is a solid 6-0 ATS the last six on the road off a SU road loss, including a cover at New Orleans three weeks ago. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 9-4 ATS against an opponent off a non-division game.

The Giants were pointspread gold each of the last two seasons, and even through the first five games, but New York has taken a severe nose-dive. The G-Men are just 2-4-1 ATS the last seven games as a home favorite, including the losses to the Cardinals and Chargers.

Browns at Lions (-3½, 38½)

This may be one of the biggest dog games the entire season, possibly passing the St. Louis/Detroit matchup three weeks ago at Ford Field. However, if it's on the board, there's a chance to cash in, even if it's a pair of teams with two combined wins.

The Lions were favored in the Rams game, but St. Louis won that game as a road underdog. Detroit is coming off a 27-10 loss at Minnesota, which actually sets up well for Jim Schwartz's team. The Lions are 8-3 ATS the last 11 games after scoring ten points or less in their previous contest. Detroit has struggled at home against the AFC, going 3-6 ATS the last nine, including an 0-2 ATS mark last season.

Not surprising, but the Browns are in several play-against spots this week. Cleveland is in non-cover mode the week before they take on their Ohio brethren, Cincinnati. The Browns are 1-9 ATS the last five seasons prior to a matchup with the Bengals, including a blowout loss at Baltimore in Week 3. Cleveland was shut out Monday against the Ravens, and is 3-7 ATS after a game in which they scored seven points or less.

Redskins at Cowboys (-11, 41½)

Washington picked up only its third victory of the season on Sunday, rallying to beat Denver at home. Dallas stubbed its toe in Green Bay, falling to the Packers, 17-7. The Cowboys still own first place in the NFC East, facing the Redskins for the first time this season.

The Cowboys have been profitable as a home favorite since the end of last season, going 7-2 ATS, including a 3-1 ATS mark in '09. Dallas does own several negative trends, however, in this contest. In Wade Phillips' career, the Cowboys' head coach is 1-9 ATS against division opponents off a SU underdog win. Despite beating the Eagles two weeks ago on Sunday night, Dallas is just 3-9 ATS the last 12 games against NFC East opponents.

The Redskins are 2-2-1 ATS as an underdog this season, which is thankfully better than the 0-4 ATS mark when laying points. Under Jim Zorn, the Redskins are 2-8 ATS against an opponent that scored 15 points or less in their last game.

Cardinals (-9, 47) at Rams

Arizona is slowly pulling away in the NFC West, after finishing off a season sweep of Seattle last Sunday. The Cards sit atop the division at 6-3, while winning all four of their road games. The Rams did pick up a cover this past week in a five-point loss to undefeated New Orleans, but St. Louis is just 1-8 this season.

The Cardinals have capitalized off a SU win under Ken Whisenhunt, going 11-6 ATS the last 17 following a victory. Arizona is also coming off a high-scoring game, which plays into its favor. The Cards are 12-1 ATS dating back to last season off a contest in which 50 or more points were scored.

The Rams may have covered last week, but St. Louis is still a good 'fade' play. The Rams are 4-11 ATS the last 15 at home against divisional opponents, while putting up a 3-8 ATS mark the last 11 games as a home underdog of at least seven points.

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Eagles at Bears
By Brian Edwards

The NFC wild-card hunt is becoming more interesting each week. Our combatants for Sunday night – Chicago and Philadelphia – are two of six clubs vying for a pair of playoff spots that are separated by just one game.

The Eagles, Giants, Falcons and Packers each own 5-4 ledgers, while the Bears and 49ers are sitting at 4-5 going into Week 11. Carolina isn’t dead yet with a 4-6 mark, although its home loss to Miami on Thursday was costly.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Philadelphia (5-4 straight up, 5-4 against the spread) as a three-point favorite with a total of 45. As of Saturday afternoon, most spots still had the Eagles at three but with a double-juice price (minus-120). Therefore, gamblers backing the Bears plus three were doing so at even-money (risking $100 to win $100).

Chicago (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is plus-140 on the money line (risk $100 to win $140).

Andy Reid’s team has suddenly dropped back-to-back games and three of its last four, including last week’s 31-23 loss at San Diego as a one-point underdog. Donovan McNabb completed 35-of-55 passes for 450 yards with two touchdowns and one interception.

But the Eagles had no running game whatsoever, as evidenced by a 56/13 pass-to-run ratio on 69 offensive snaps. Even worse, Brian Westbrook suffered his second concussion in less than a month, leaving his status for the rest of the season in limbo. Westrook is definitely “out” this week.

Jason Avant had eight receptions for 156 yards against the Chargers. Meanwhile, DeSean Jackson hauled in eight catches for 91 yards, while rookie WR Jeremy Maclin had six receptions for 76 yards and one TD.

The Bears come into this spot with a couple of extra days’ rest after losing 10-6 at San Francisco last Thursday. The 49ers took the cash as 3 ½-point home ‘chalk.’

Jay Cutler had an abysmal performance, throwing five interceptions to bring his touchdown-interception ratio for the season to a mediocre 14/17. The Vandy product leads the NFL in interceptions and two of his picks at San Francisco came deep in the red zone.

Lovie Smith’s team has played well at home this year, compiling a 3-1 record both SU and ATS. However, Arizona came to Soldier Field two weeks ago and captured a 41-21 win as a one-point road underdog. Regardless of the venue, Chicago has lost four of its last five games after getting out to a 3-1 start.

Philadelphia is 2-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year. The Eagles have lost both road assignments out West to San Diego and Oakland, but they won and covered at Washington (27-17) and at Carolina (38-10).

For the season, McNabb has connected on 60.1 percent of his passes for 1,685 yards with a 12/4 TD-INT ratio. TE Brent Celek has become McNabb’s favorite target, hauling in 46 catches for 533 yards and five TDs. WR DeSean Jackson is a threat to go the distance on any given touch, bringing down 34 receptions for 621 yards and four TDs for an 18.3 yard-per-catch average. Jackson also has seven rushes for 115 yards and one TD, in addition to an 85-yard punt return for a score.

Maclin is also enjoying a stellar rookie year. The first-round pick from out of Missouri has 31 catches for 413 yards and four TDs. With Westbrook out, another rookie first-round pick, LeSean McCoy, will now handle the bulk of the rushing load. McCoy has a team-high 353 rushing yards and two TDs with a 4.1 YPC average.

Chicago placed RB Garrett Wolfe on injured reserve this week with a kidney injury. Wolfe, a third-down back, was second on the team in rushing yards with 120. Matt Forte is the club’s leading rusher with 482 yards and three TDs. However, his 3.4 YPC average is very pedestrian and the Bears have problems punching the ball in the end zone from the red zone all year. Part of that falls on Forte, who had a pair of red-zone fumbles in a loss at Atlanta and has been unable to return to the form he demonstrated as a rookie in 2008.

Devin Hester is no longer the special-teams dynamo he was a few years back, but he has developed into Cutler’s go-to target. Hester has a team-high 48 catches for 596 yards and three TDs. Earl Bennett, Cutler’s former teammate at Vandy, has 35 receptions for 454 yards but no TDs.

This is the third straight season in which these teams have met in the regular season. The Bears have won both previous encounters, including a 24-20 win last year as three-point home underdogs. In 2007. Chicago won a 19-16 decision at Philadelphia as a 5½-point road puppy.

The ‘over’ has been a major money maker for the Eagles this year, going 7-2 overall and 3-1 in their road games. Meanwhile, the ‘under’ has gone 5-4 overall for the Bears, 2-2 in their home outings.

The Bears are 6-5 ATS as home ‘dogs during Smith’s six-year tenure. They have only been home ‘dogs once this year, beating Pittsburgh 17-14 as three-point puppies. Meanwhile, the Eagles are 2-1 ATS as road favorites in 2009. Dating back to 2005, though, they are just 10-11 ATS as road ‘chalk.’

NBC will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.

vegasinsider.com.

What Bettors Need to Know: Eagles at Bears
By TERRY MASSEY

This is no rematch of the infamous "Fog Bowl,'' although that would explain Bears QB Jay Cutler's recent bout with night blindness.

The "Fish Bowl'' may be more like it with Cutler coming off a five-interception performance and Eagles QB Donovan McNabb returning to play in his hometown.

But unlike the 1988 playoff game, when a fog bank rolled in off of Lake Michigan and kept even the players from seeing the game, these Eagles (5-4) and Bears (4-5) are in danger of missing the playoffs altogether, so it's a bit of a must-win for both sides.

Line movement

This line has held steady at the Eagles -3 with most books offering up -110 juice.

True to their straight-up records, the Eagles are 5-4 ATS this season while the Bears are 4-5 ATS. Coincidentally, both teams have covered in every game they have won.

The total has held steady at 45 since opening. The Eagles have hit the over in seven of their nine games this season.

Injury report

Eagles RB Brian Westbrook will not play after suffering his second concussion in the past three games. Also out for Philly is WR Kevin Curtis (knee) LB Akeem Jordan (Knee) and S Quintin Demps (ankle). CB Sheldon Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

The Bears will be without LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) and RB Garrett Wolfe (kidney), while TE Desmond Clark (neck) and S Kevin Payne (back) are doubtful.

Weather or not

The weather is better than one might expect for a November night game at Soldier Field with the temperature in the low-50s at kickoff and down into the low-40s by game's end.

There is a slight chance of rain but the wind is expected to be light at about 6 mph out of the east in the Windy City.

Prime-time picks

Cutler's knack for throwing interceptions this season is well documented, especially since 11 of them have come in his three prime-time performances.

Cutler cemented that statistic with his five picks against the 49ers last Thursday, but he has had 10 days to recover while the Eagles are coming off a cross-country loss at the Chargers Sunday.

At least this will be a familiar trip for McNabb, who is 3-1 straight up against his hometown team at Soldier Field. He played only briefly as a rookie in a 1999 win but led the Eagles to a pair of victories before time ran out on him in last year's loss.

An interesting side bet: Which QB will receive the highest cheer-to-boo ratio from the Chicago fans?

Running on empty

Two teams traditionally known for their balanced offensive attacks have become one-sided in favor of the passing game this season.

While both teams rank in the Top 10 in passing, they are near the bottom of the league in rushing.

The Eagles rank 23rd, but those numbers include the use of Westbrook, who won't be available for this game. He accounted for all but one yard of his team's rushing total against the Chargers. The Eagles will rely on rookie LeSean McCoy to get the ground game going.

The Bears have fallen all the way to 30th, which may explain why there's been so much pressure on Cutler's arm. Running back Matt Forte has been disappointing after a strong rookie season and he won't have his backup in Wolfe available for the game.

D-Day for Jay?

If you're looking for the key matchup or a key mismatch, the Eagles' defensive strengths happen to be the Bears' most glaring weaknesses.

The Eagles’ defense ranks tied for second in both interceptions (15) and sacks (29), meaning they should be able to get pressure on Cutler and they know what to do when he makes a mistake.

Many of Cutler's 17 interceptions are the result of a lack of protection so expect the Eagles to throw the kitchen sink at him.

Trendy solutions

The Bears were 15-0 straight up against the Eagles at home until McNabb's rookie season in 1999. The Eagles made it three in a row at Soldier Field before last year's 24-20 loss.

The Bears are 0-3 ATS in primetime games this season, but all of those games were on the road against solid teams - Green Bay, Atlanta and San Francisco.

The Eagles are 2-0 ATS on the road this season when they stay in the same time zone, but 0-2 ATS when they travel outside of it.

Will certain NFL teams bounce back in Week 11?
By Doug Upstone

Last week saw a number of professionals football teams lose or play poorly. The New England Patriots are the case study for this week, having to overcome an excruciating loss and arguably coachs miscalculation. Coaches Rex Ryan and Josh McDaniels have gone from looking like the next Vince Lombardi to Rich Kotite in just weeks, as their teams seek a win. Atlantas season is going the wrong direction and the Giants have not won Oct.11. Dallas went from being to team on the move in the NFC to almost being shutout, how will they respond against division foe. The Colts and Ravens were beatable last week, and go head to head trying to get back in groove of playing best football.

Indianapolis at Baltimore

After rallying to top the Patriots Sunday night, Indianapolis perfect record is still intact, having now set its sights on home field advantage in the playoffs. The Colts (9-0, 5-4 ATS) begin a two-game road trip in Baltimore, looking to extend a 7-1-1 ATS stretch on the road. The average score in this seasons four wins has been 32.7-12.0. Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS) comes in off the Monday night game in Cleveland, and is riding a stretch of 10-3 ATS in its previous 13 as hosts. Only three of those games were as the home underdog however, and the Ravens are 2-1 SU and ATS in those. The Colts have won six straight games in this series, including three over the last two seasons, and are 5-1 ATS in that span. Indy has scored 26 points per game on the vaunted Ravens defense in those contests.

Keys to the Game

This isnt the same Baltimore defense from earlier in the decade and Peyton Manning has stayed away from trouble and picked the Ravens apart. Nobody ever runs really well on Baltimores defense, as noted by 3.5 yards per carry (3rd), however using Joseph Addai to keep the Ravens off-balance in the run and passing game opens up other possibilities. Indianapolis is 6-0 ATS in road games off a home win and no-cover as a favorite and will look to stop Ravens run game and make Joe Flacco a pocket passer, whose been sacked 20 times.

The Ravens will be without LB Terrell Suggs, which means DC Greg Mattison has to be innovative to create doubt or hesitation in Mannings mind. The blueprint has been out there, run the ball on the Colts and take advantage of all scoring opportunities to limit the Indianapolis offense. With three distinctly different running backs, find the one that troubles the Colts defense the most. The Birds are 12-2 ATS after allowing 100 or less passing yards in their last game and have to bracket TE Dallas Clark, taking away one of Mannings favorite targets.

Atlanta at N.Y. Giants

New York (5-4 SU&ATS) has had two weeks to sit and dwell on what has become a four-game losing streak, and another setback against Atlanta in Week 11 would mark the longest skid since 2004, Tom Coughlins first year with the team. It would also mark the fifth straight home loss to the Falcons, both SU and ATS. The Giants are still in the hunt in the NFC East, owning a win over the division leading Cowboys already, but are facing a schedule which features five out of seven games against bonafide playoff contenders. They are just 2-4 SU and 2-3-1 ATS coming out of the bye week under Coughlin. Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) plays its second straight road game after losing at Carolina, before heading home for its next three contests. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS as underdogs in November vs. opponent off back-to-back losses.

Keys to the Game

Atlanta knew coming into the season they had a few defensive deficiencies, but they would have never guessed they would be ranked 25th against the run and 28th against the pass. This week they have to beat the Giants at the point of attack and disguise coverages to protect corners. With no Michael Turner, Jason Snelling and possibly Jerious Norwood have to be effective, especially for third down runs and in the red zone. The Falcons are 11-27 ATS vs. good offensive teams scoring 24 or more points a game in the second half of season and need the Matty Ice from last season and earlier this campaign and not the one that has 10 interceptions in last five games.

With Atlantas poor run defense, the Giants should bludgeon the Birds for four quarters in a test of manhood, a Coughlin specialty. The New York run defense has been up and down and not having to face Turner, who was hitting his stride, should be a big help. The G-Men are 14-5 ATS after playing a game at home over the last three seasons, in part because defensive line has been able to create constant pressure on the quarterback. This is imperative against Atlanta with a weakened secondary.

Washington at Dallas

Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS) returns home after a two-game road trip with the NFC East Division lead in hand and getting ready to face Washington and Oakland, a pair of teams that have combined for five wins in 2009. Dallas is 14-3 SU and 11-6 ATS when hosting Washington since 1992, but overall the series has been dominated by underdogs, 14-9 SU and 18-5 ATS in the last 23 meetings. The Cowboys have struggled to cover in the heavy favorite role under Wade Phillips, despite sparkling 8-0 SU record as double-digit chalk, they are just 3-5 ATS. They are also just 7-15 ATS in previous divisional games, including 3-8 ATS at home. Dallas is 6-3 ATS after losing in Green Bay. The Redskins (2-7 ATS) are 3-6 after upsetting Denver at home last Sunday, and have covered the Vegas number in just three of their last 17 games overall.

Keys to the Game

This is a winnable game if Washington plays intelligently. On defense, they are among the best in winning first down and have to maintain that edge, forcing Dallas to throw. In passing situations, bombard the Cowboys tackles, with Mark Colombo out and Flozell Adams looking like he could be timed with hour glass in pass drop-backs last week. The Washington secondary cant suckered into being out of position by double moves and pump fakes. The Skins are 9-1 ATS vs. passing teams averaging 260 or more passing yards a game after the midpoint of the season. On offense, keep honest down and distances like they did last week and Jason Campbell has to throw with same confidence and readiness as he showed when pressured by the Broncos.

Coach Wade Phillips receives plenty of heat; however he didnt pick the offensive coordinator and Jason Garrett has run the Dallas offense like he has the Patriots team of 2007, as the running backs have taken 30 handoffs in last two contests. Dallas is second to Tennessee in yards per carry at 5.1, run the ball! The fact is Tony Romo is a far more effective quarterback with a running game and the passing game opens up for the Boys when they commit. Santana Moss could be headed to the Hall of Fame if he played against everyone else like he does against Dallas. The Cowboys move to 10-1 ATS after a double digit loss if they put the clamps in Moss.

N.Y. Jets at New England

The budding rivalry between the Jets and Patriots picked up some intensity in Week 2 when New York won at home. This time around, its New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS) that gets to play the role as host. The light switch might have gone on for the Patriots in that 16-9 loss, as since that point, theyve gone on a tear, 5-2 SU & ATS while scoring 33 points per game. Still, it will be interesting to see their reaction after the meltdown loss to the Colts. New England will be looking to stem the tide of 3-9 ATS record at home when hosting the Jets. As a divisional host, Belichicks team is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as well. The Jets (4-5 ATS) are 4-5 after losing to Jacksonville, and three of their losses have come in divisional play. Dating back to mid-07, New York is 5-1 ATS on the road vs. AFC East rivals.

Keys to the Game

Mark Sanchez has regressed at various points this season and wont see the same vanilla defense he faced the last time he saw the Patriots uniforms. The old adage of players needing to make plays falls directly into Sanchezs lap. The Jets are 16-7-1 ATS as division away dogs and have to attempt to win the battle of field position, be it by special teams or forcing turnovers. Wes Welker missed the first matchup, he must be contained or the schwarmerei about the Jets will continue.

Laurence Maroney's fumble near the goal line was important play last week and he played little after the miscue. The New England running game wasnt the same afterwards, which helped fuel the Colts comeback. Maroney or some Patriots running back has to carry the pigskin and allow them to control the line of scrimmage. Welker is so important to New Englands passing game, since he opens up the other levels. If the former Texas Tech star has eight or more catches, Pats cruise. No matter what has been said, the Patriots defense has been slighted by their head coach. Its up to the players and defensive coaches to rebuild confidence and make stops, preferably three and outs, which bring back the mojo. New England is 26-10 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent

San Diego at Denver

For the second straight season, San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) let Denver (6-3 SU&ATS) out to a comfortable lead in the AFC West Division. Once again, the Chargers have reeled the Broncos back in, and have pulled even as the teams prepare to meet on Sunday. Denver owns a head-to-head victory in San Diego already, so another victory could go a long way to clinching a first division crown since 2005. Of late though, it is the Chargers who have been playing well in their trips to Mile High, having covered three straight while posting 2-1 record. If you recall last years meeting, the Broncos prevailed in a one-point game gift wrapped by referee Ed Hochulis botched fumble call. That game will surely be reflected on this week, as will Denvers 1-8 ATS record at home vs. AFC West foes since 2006. The straight up is 21-1-4 against the spread.

Keys to the Game

It appears Chris Simms will get the start for Denver, who looked rustier than a 1974 Chevy Vega. Though coach McDaniels has assured the game plan wont change with Simms, hes going to have to be more accurate on passes 15 or more yards down the field to take advantage of his talented receivers and keep San Diego from crowding the line of scrimmage. The offense line has to start taking charge again. Denver averaged 132 yards rushing in six-game winning streak and 71yards per contest in last three losses. The offense has to start controlling the clock again with the defense wearing out. The Broncos are 4-13 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better and to reverse that trend they have to do what they did the first matchup, get to Phillip Rivers.

In the first game, San Diego lost the special teams battle with two Eddie Royal kick returns and the offensive line could not keep Rivers in vertical position. Both of these elements have to be addressed, especially against angry and desperate home team. The Chargers are 13-3 ATS after two or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons and the defense cant get lazy. Last week against Eagles in their comeback and previous game with Denver, the secondary and linebackers took terrible angles in surrendering too many yards after the catch. If San Diego tackles effectively, they might be one first place all by themselves at the end of the day.

Cleveland (1-8, 3-6 ATS) at Detroit (1-8, 2-6-1 ATS)

Two of the worst teams in NFL square off when the offensively challenged Browns travel to Ford Field to face the continually struggling Lions.

On Monday night, Cleveland fell flat against Baltimore in a 16-0 home loss as a 10½-point underdog. The Browns kept the game scoreless in the first half, then gave up all 16 points in the third quarter, including a Brady Quinn INT returned for a score. Cleveland has just five offensive touchdowns this year (three passing, two rushing), and none of the Browns’ running backs have reached paydirt through nine games. The Browns are averaging a league-worst 8.7 ppg.

Detroit has been slightly more competitive, losing to Minnesota 27-10 Sunday but getting the push as a huge 17-point road pup to snap a three-game ATS skid. The Lions have lost six in a row (1-4-1 ATS), and they are allowing a league-worst 29.3 ppg while scoring just 15.9 ppg (26th). QB Matthew Stafford, the No. 1 overall draft pick, is looking very much like a rookie, with six TDs more than offset by 12 INTs.

These teams have met each of the past eight preseasons, but haven’t played a meaningful game since October 2005, when Detroit scored a 13-10 win as a three-point road pup.

The Browns carry positive ATS streaks of 7-2-1 as a pup of 3½ to 10 points, 5-0 as a road ‘dog of the same price and 12-2 in roadies against teams with a losing home mark, but they are on ATS slides of 3-11-1 overall, 0-3-1 in November, 1-8-1 after a non-cover, 2-10-1 after a SU loss and 2-6 on the highway. The Lions carry negative ATS trends of 0-3-1 overall, 3-10 at Ford Field, 5-15-1 in November, 16-35-1 as a chalk and 2-5-1 as a home favorite, but they are 6-3-1 ATS in their last 10 hosting the AFC.

The under for Cleveland is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-1-1 on the road (all as a pup), 4-0 in November and 19-7-2 against losing teams. The under for Detroit is on runs of 5-1 at home and 5-2 after a SU loss, but the over for the Lions is on stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 in November and 8-3 as a chalk of 3½ to 10.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Buffalo (3-6, 4-5 ATS) at Jacksonville (5-4, 4-5 ATS)

The Bills, who fired coach Dick Jauron on Tuesday, hit the road under interim coach Perry Fewell for a meeting with the Jaguars at Jacksonville Municipal Stadium.

Buffalo was tied with Tennessee at 17 after three quarters last week, then gave up 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points in a 41-17 loss as a nine-point road ‘dog, precipitating Jauron’s dismissal. The Bills, averaging just 15.6 ppg (28th), have scored 17 points or less in six of their last seven outings, including four games of 10 points or less.

Jacksonville got a field goal in the final seconds to edge the Jets 24-22 Sunday as a 6½-point road underdog, winning SU for the third time in four games while also snapping a four-game ATS slide. Behind star RB Maurice Jones-Drew, the Jaguars have the NFL’s sixth-best rushing attack (140.1 ypg). Drew ran for 123 yards and a TD against New York, and over the past four games, he’s churned out 530 yards and seven TDs, averaging 132.5 ypg in that stretch.

These teams have squared off each of the past five years, alternating SU and ATS wins over that stretch, with Buffalo taking a 20-16 road win as a four-point pup in September 2008. The Bills are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the underdog is also on a 5-2 ATS run. The SU winner is on a 9-0 ATS tear in this rivalry, and the road team is 6-3 ATS in that span.

The Bills are in ATS funks of 2-5 overall, 1-8-1 in November, 1-4 against the AFC and 3-10 against winning teams, though they’ve gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight roadies and are on a 6-1 ATS swing against non-division foes. The Jaguars are on a bundle of ATS slides, including 1-4 overall, 2-10 at home, 1-11 laying points, 0-8 as a home chalk, 0-4 against losing teams, 3-8 after a SU win and 4-11 outside the AFC South.

The under has hit in four of the last five for Buffalo, but the Bills are on “over” runs of 6-2 on the highway, 6-2 after a SU loss and 5-2 as a road pup. The over for Jacksonville is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 5-0 at home, 8-2-2 in November and 12-3-2 with the Jags favored.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Pittsburgh (6-3, 3-6 ATS) at Kansas City (2-7, 4-5 ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers look to rebound from their lowest offensive output of the year when they travel to Arrowhead Stadium to face the dismal Chiefs.

Pittsburgh mustered just four Jeff Reed field goals Sunday against Cincinnati, losing 18-12 as a 6½-point home favorite. The loss snapped a five-game win streak (3-2 ATS) for the Steelers, who had put up at least 27 ppg during that surge. Despite the lack of offense against the Bengals, Pittsburgh’s defense remains among the league’s best, allowing just 277.4 ypg (second) and 17.4 ppg (sixth), and the Steelers field the league’s best run-stopping unit (69.3 ypg).

Kansas City earned a 16-10 victory over hapless Oakland last week as a one-point road pup, cashing for the fourth time in its last five games (2-3 SU). The Chiefs continue to field one of the NFL’s weakest scoring offenses, averaging just 15.8 ppg (27th), and they’re gaining just 266.6 ypg, which leads only the Raiders and Browns, respectively.

Pittsburgh is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Kansas City, including a 45-7 blowout home win giving 6½ points in October 2006, the most recent contest. The SU winner is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 clashes (7-0-1 ATS last eight).

The Steelers are stuck in ATS ruts of 3-7 overall (all as a favorite), 1-5 on the road (also all as a chalk) and 2-6-1 in roadies against teams with a losing home record, and they are on a 2-6 ATS dive as a non-division double-digit chalk. The Chiefs’ current 4-1 ATS surge has all come from the underdog role, and they are on a 6-2 ATS uptick catching double digits. However, they carry negative ATS streaks of 4-13 at home (1-4 last five), 2-5 as an Arrowhead pup, 2-5 in the AFC and 4-9 against winning teams.

Pittsburgh is on “over” stretches of 16-7 within the AFC, 5-2 as a road favorite and 4-1 laying 3½ to 10 points on the highway. Likewise, K.C. is on “over” runs of 4-1-2 at home and 15-5-2 as a home pup, and in this rivalry, the total has gone high in the last four clashes.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH and OVER

Indianapolis (9-0, 5-4 ATS) at Baltimore (5-4, 6-3 ATS)

The red-hot Colts aim to remain one of two unbeaten teams in the NFL when they take on the Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium.

Indianapolis overcame a 31-17 fourth-quarter deficit Sunday night to claim a 35-34 victory over New England as a two-point home chalk, the team’s 18th straight regular-season SU victory. The Colts benefited greatly from Patriots coach Bill Belichick’s blown fourth-down decision late in the fourth quarter, easily driving 30 yards for the winning TD. Indy sports the NFL’s third-best offense at 401.1 ypg, with QB Peyton Manning leading the No. 1 passing attack (315.1 ypg), and the Colts are fourth in scoring at 28 ppg.

Indianapolis remains No. 1 in scoring defense (15.8 ppg), despite the Pats putting up 34 points.

Baltimore claimed a lackluster 16-0 victory at Cleveland on Monday, scoring two TDs within 17 seconds in the third quarter (the second on a pick-six) to cover as a 10½-point favorite. Prior to that, the Ravens had been on a 1-4 SU skid (2-3 ATS). With the shutout, Baltimore now sports the seventh-best defense in yards allowed (302.8) and is fifth in scoring defense (17.1 ppg). Offensively, the Ravens are a 13th in total yards (348.9) and 11th in scoring (24.7).

Indianapolis is on a 6-0 SU tear (5-1 ATS) in this rivalry, including a 31-3 rout last year as a four-point home chalk. The Colts have cashed in the last five contests, winning all by at least nine points and three of them by 17 or more. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the SU winner is 8-2 ATS in the last 10 clashes.

The Colts are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four November starts and 2-7 ATS in their last nine against winning teams, but they carry positive pointspread streaks of 5-2-1 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1-1 as a road chalk and 26-9-1 in non-division roadies. The Ravens, meanwhile, are on a bundle of ATS upswings, including 21-8 overall, 4-1 at home, 4-1 in November, 7-3 getting points and 31-12 in non-division home games.

The under for Indy is on runs of 4-1 in November and 8-3 against AFC foes, and the under for Baltimore is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 at M&T, 4-0 against the AFC and 5-0 at home versus teams with a winning road record. And in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings. That said, the over is 18-7-1 in the Ravens’ last 26 starts as a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS and UNDER

Atlanta (5-4, 6-3 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-4, 4-5 ATS)

Two teams in need of a victory in order to get back in the playoff race meet up when the freefalling Giants play host to the Falcons in East Rutherford, N.J.

New York, which had its bye last week, got out of the gate with five straight wins (4-1 ATS), but has since dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including a 21-20 setback to the Chargers as a five-point home chalk two weeks ago. The Giants have dropped two in a row at home SU and ATS, as they tumbled to Arizona two weeks before the San Diego loss. After averaging 30.2 ppg in its first five outings, New York has managed just 20.3 ppg during its losing skid, while allowing 33.3 ppg, including 40 to Philadelphia and a whopping 48 to New Orleans.

Atlanta was 4-1 SU and ATS through five weeks, but has lost three of four (2-2 ATS) after falling to Carolina 28-19 Sunday as a one-point road favorite. The Falcons are averaging 24.5 ppg during the slide (24.6 ppg for the year), but they are giving up points at a more rapid pace, yielding 29.3 ppg. Furthermore, all three losses were on the road – 37-21 at Dallas, 35-27 at New Orleans and last week’s setback in Charlotte.

New York has won and covered in the last two clashes in this rivalry, after a 3-0 SU and ATS run by Atlanta. Most recently, the Giants rolled 31-10 on the road laying 4½ points in October 2007. The SU winner is on a 7-0 ATS roll, all as the visitor, and the Falcons are 4-0 ATS on their last four trips to face New York.

Along with their current 0-4 ATS skid, the Giants are on pointspread declines of 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 2-6-1 after the bye, 0-4 against winning teams and 0-4-1 after a SU loss, though they still maintain positive ATS streaks of 39-13-3 within the NFC and 15-6 as a non-division favorite. The Falcons are on spread-covering streaks of 10-1 after a SU loss, 9-2 after a non-cover, 4-1 in November and 5-2 against NFC foes.

New York is on “under” stretches of 12-4 after a bye week and 9-4 coming off a SU loss, but the over is 5-2-1 in its last eight November outings. Atlanta is on a bundle of “over” runs, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 on the highway, 4-1 as a road pup, 4-1 against winning teams, 12-3 after a SU loss and 11-4 after an ATS loss. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last six meetings (5-0-1).

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS

San Francisco (4-5, 6-2-1 ATS) at Green Bay (5-4 SU and ATS)

The Packers, looking to inject themselves back into the NFC playoff chase, are home at Lambeau Field for the third time in four weeks when they take on the 49ers.

Green Bay put up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs and didn’t let Dallas into the end zone until the final minute of a 17-7 home win as a three-point underdog Sunday, snapping a two-game SU and ATS skid. The Packers are eighth in total yards this year (366.2 ypg) and tied for seventh in scoring (25.8 ppg), bolstered primarily by the top turnover margin in the NFL, at plus-13. The Pack had two fumble recoveries and an INT against the Cowboys, while committing no turnovers.

San Francisco held off Chicago for a 10-6 home victory on Thursday, Nov. 12, to narrowly cover as a 3½-point home chalk and end a four-game SU purge (1-2-1 ATS). The 49ers picked off Jay Cutler five times, and the last one came in the end zone with the Bears in the red zone. San Fran is among the league’s least-effective offenses, averaging just 277.9 ypg (27th) and 20.4 ppg (21st), though the defense is only yielding 20 ppg (11th).

Green Bay has won six in a row SU in this rivalry (5-1 ATS), going 4-0 SU and ATS in the last four clashes, including a 30-19 victory as a four-point road pup in December 2006, the most recent meeting. The Packers are also on a 4-0 ATS run against the Niners in Green Bay, and the SU winner is on a 7-1-1 ATS roll.

The Packers are on a handful of pointspread purges, including 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 after a SU win, 1-4 in November, 2-5 as a home favorite and 2-5 hosting non-division teams. On the flip side, the 49ers are on ATS tears of 9-3-2 overall, 6-0-1 getting points, 5-0-1 as a non-division ‘dog, 3-0-1 on the road, 6-1-1 against winning teams and 6-2 in November.

Green Bay is on a bundle of “over” streaks, including 23-10-1 overall, 21-5 after a spread-cover, 18-5 after a SU win, 20-6-1 against NFC opponents, 17-6 laying points and 11-4 as a home chalk. Conversely, the under for San Fran is on stretches of 5-2 from the underdog role, 4-1 with the Niners getting 3½ to 10 points and 5-2 on the highway.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY

Seattle (3-6 SU and ATS) at Minnesota (8-1, 5-3-1 ATS)

The Vikings, who have bounced back nicely from their only loss of the year, aim to keep rolling when they take on the return to the Metrodome to face the Seahawks, who are still searching for their first road win of 2009.

Minnesota coasted past Detroit 27-10 Sunday for its second consecutive win since its 27-17 loss at Pittsburgh, though it had to settle for a push against the dismal Lions as an overwhelming 17-point home chalk. The Vikings are racking up 30.1 ppg, second only to the Saints (36.8 ppg), while gaining 369.1 ypg (seventh). Minnesota also sports a high-pressure defense, leading the league in sacks at 34.

Seattle bolted out to a 14-0 lead on the road against the defending NFC champion Cardinals last week, but couldn’t make it stand up in a 31-20 loss as a nine-point ‘dog, getting outscored 14-3 in the fourth quarter. The Seahawks have been held to 20 points or less in six of their last eight games, losing those six contests SU and ATS.

These NFC rivals’ last meaningful meeting came in October 2006, with Minnesota rolling 31-13 as a six-point road pup. Also, the SU winner has covered in six straight contests between these squads.

Despite their lofty SU record, the Vikings are on ATS dips of 1-5-1 at the dome, 1-4-1 as a home chalk, 1-10-1 laying more than 10 points and 5-13-1 following a SU win. Still, they have positive ATS trends of 3-0-1 in November, 3-0-1 in conference games and 4-1-1 against losing teams. The Seahawks, meanwhile, are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight starts and are on further ATS slides of 0-5 on the highway, 0-6 getting points, 0-5 against winning teams, 1-5 in the NFC and 9-23 in non-division road games.

The over for Minnesota is on streaks of 5-2 overall, 4-1 against the NFC, 4-1 with the Vikes a chalk and 7-2 in November, and the over for Seattle is on tears of 5-2 overall, 4-0 with the Seahawks a pup, 4-1-1 on the road, 5-1-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA and OVER

Washington (3-6 SU and ATS) at Dallas (6-3, 5-4 ATS)

The Cowboys look to rebound from a sluggish road performance when they return to their palatial new stadium for an NFC East clash with the hated Redskins.

Dallas didn’t get on the scoreboard until the final minute of Sunday’s game at Green Bay, losing 17-7 as a three-point favorite to halt a four-game winning streak (3-1 ATS). It was a rare low-scoring effort for the Cowboys, who have netted 20 points or more in all but two games this year and have scored 26 or more five times. Dallas is fourth in the league at 390.4 total ypg, and defensively, the Pokes are giving up just 18.8 ppg (eighth).

Washington knocked off Denver 27-17 last week as a 3½-point home pup, ending a four-game SU slide and a three-game ATS skid. It was the highest scoring output of the season by far for the Redskins, who hadn’t broken 17 points in eight previous attempts. Even with that, though, Washington is averaging just 15.6 ppg (tied for 28th), and they are minus-6 in turnover margin (29th).

Dallas edged Washington 14-10 last November as a one-point road favorite, ending a 4-0 ATS run (3-1 SU) by the Redskins in this rivalry. The underdog is 20-7 ATS in the last 27 meetings, and the SU winner is 9-1 ATS in the last 10 contests.

The Cowboys are a meager 3-9 ATS in their last 12 division starts and 1-4 ATS in their last five laying more than 10 points, but they are otherwise on ATS surges of 7-2 at home, 12-3 in November (5-1 last six), 4-1 against losing teams and 5-2 after a non-cover. The Redskins carry almost nothing but negative ATS trends, including 4-11-2 overall, 2-5-1 against the NFC, 1-5-1 in November and 2-6 against winning teams, but they are on a 6-1 ATS run as a division road pup.

The over has hit in four of Dallas’ last five home games (all from the favorite’s role), and the under is 5-1 in Washington’s last six getting points. But the under is a lengthy 47-23-3 in the Cowboys’ last 73 games against losing teams, and for the Redskins, the under is on runs of 15-5-1 overall, 6-1-1 after a SU win, 7-3 inside the division, 10-4-1 against the NFC and 5-2 in November.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

New Orleans (9-0, 6-3 ATS) at Tampa Bay (1-8, 3-6 ATS)

The high-flying Saints try to remain unbeaten against the league doormat Buccaneers in a meeting of NFC South rivals at Raymond James Stadium.

New Orleans held off St. Louis 28-23 in a much tougher game than expected, failing to cover as a hefty 14-point road chalk Sunday, and the Saints have now dropped three straight games ATS. QB Drew Brees leads the NFL’s No. 1 offense in both total yards (426.1 ypg) and scoring (36.8 ppg), nearly seven points per game ahead of the second-place Vikings (30.1). The defense has the Saints at fifth in turnover margin (plus-6), with 17 INTs (five returned for TDs) and eight fumble recoveries (two for TDs).

Tampa Bay followed up its first victory of the Raheem Morris era with a 25-23 loss at Miami on Sunday, though it covered as a 10-point ‘dog to cash for the second straight week, after its 38-28 home upset of Green Bay. Despite two better performances the past two weeks, the Bucs are still 28th in total offense (276.2 ypg) and 25th in scoring (17.4 ppg), and defensively, they stand 29th in total yards allowed (379.2 ypg) and 31st in points allowed (28.4 ppg), ahead of only Detroit.

New Orleans cashed in both meetings between these two last year (1-1 SU), stemming a 5-1 ATS run by Tampa in this rivalry (4-2 SU). The Bucs won the most recent clash 23-20 last November, though the Saints covered as a 3½-point road pup. The underdog is on a 10-4 ATS run in the last 14 meetings, but the road team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12, and New Orleans is 5-2 ATS on its last seven trips to Tampa.

Other than a 2-5 ATS mark in their last seven division starts, the Saints are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 11-4-1 overall, 6-1-1 in roadies, 11-3 laying points, 5-1 as a road chalk and 6-2 as a division road chalk. The Buccaneers have cashed in four of their last five November starts (2-0 ATS this month), but they are on a 1-12 SU freefall (4-9 ATS) and are on additional ATS plunges of 3-8 overall, 1-7 at Raymond James, 2-8 after a SU loss, 1-5 as a home pup and 2-5 against winning teams.

New Orleans is on “over” tears of 21-8-1 overall, 18-7-1 giving points, 15-5 as a road chalk, 19-7 following a SU win, 7-3 against NFC South foes and 36-17-1 within the conference. Likewise, Tampa is on “over” runs of 4-1 overall (all as a ‘dog), 5-2 at home, 10-4 as a home pup and 7-3 after a SU loss, though the under for the Bucs is 8-3 in their last 11 against winning teams.

Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER

Arizona (6-3 SU and ATS) at St. Louis (1-8, 4-5 ATS)

The defending NFC champion Cardinals, on the move again after a 1-2 start to the season, look to win their fifth straight road game when they take on the lowly division rival Rams at the Edward Jones Dome.

Arizona overcame a 14-0 deficit en route to a 31-20 home victory over Seattle last week as a nine-point favorite, winning and cashing for the second straight week and moving to 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six outings to take control of the NFC West. The Cards still aren’t running the ball well (84.2 ypg, 31st), but QB Kurt Warner has the passing game gaining 271 ypg (fifth), and the 38-year-old has seven TDs, no INTs and just one sack in his last two starts.

St. Louis gave unbeaten New Orleans a run before losing 28-23, easily covering as an overwhelming 14-point home pup. Relatively speaking, it was an offensive outburst for the Rams, who had scored more than 17 points just once all season prior to Sunday and had been held to 10 points or less five times. St. Louis is still averaging a meager 11.1 ppg, ahead of only the Raiders and Browns, while allowing 27.7 ppg (29th).

Arizona has won and covered three straight in this NFC West rivalry, by an average final score of 38.7-14, including a 34-13 rout last November in St. Louis giving three points and a 34-10 beatdown at home in December laying 14. The Cards are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in the last five in the Gateway City, though the underdog is on an 8-3 ATS roll. Also, the SU winner is 8-1 ATS in the last nine contests.

Along with their current 5-1 ATS surge, the Cardinals are 4-0 SU and ATS on the road this year and are on further pointspread hot streaks of 5-0 on the highway, 5-1 in the division, 5-1 against losing teams, 8-2 against the NFC, 7-2 after either a SU or an ATS win and 11-5 as a chalk. On the flip side, the Rams are on spread-covering slides of 7-18 at the home dome, 7-17 after a SU loss, 6-16 against winning teams, 7-19 inside the NFC West and 4-12 as a home pup. St. Louis is also a putrid 1-18 SU (8-11 ATS) in its last 19 games.

The over for Arizona is on a boatload of rolls, including 35-16 overall, 5-0 in November, 21-7 after a SU win, 22-8 after a spread-cover, 37-14 against losing teams and 40-18 on the road. The over for St. Louis is on upswings of 4-1 overall, 4-0 at home (all as a pup) and 4-1 against winning teams, but the under is 4-0-1 in the Rams’ last five division tilts. Finally, the total has gone high in five of the last seven St. Louis meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER

N.Y. Jets (4-5 SU and ATS) at New England (6-3, 5-4 ATS)

The Patriots, looking to rebound from one of the most talked-about fourth-down decisions ever, take on the struggling Jets at Gillette Stadium.

New England had a 17-point fourth-quarter lead at Indianapolis on Sunday night and let it all get away in a 35-34 loss, though it covered as a two-point underdog. Leading 34-28 with about two minutes left, Bill Belichick opted to go for it on fourth-and-2 from his own 28 in hopes of sealing the win, and after the play narrowly failed, the Colts easily drove the short distance for the game-winning score.

The loss ended a three-game win streak (2-1 ATS) for the Pats, but short of Belichick’s decision, it was a solid night, as they rolled up 477 yards on one of the league’s top defenses. New England is second in the league in total offense (416.8 ypg) and third in scoring (28.8 ppg), while allowing just 304.6 ypg (eighth) and 16.7 ppg (third).

New York scored just three points in the second half last week and lost to Jacksonville 24-22 on a field goal in the waning seconds, also failing as a 6½-point home chalk. After a 4-0 SU and ATS start, the Jets are mired in a 1-5 SU and ATS plunge, with the only victory coming on the road against the hapless Raiders (38-0). On the positive side, the Jets field the NFL’s No. 1 rushing attack, averaging 170.1 ypg.

New York dropped New England 16-9 in Week 2 as a 3½-point home ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS win in this rivalry. The Jets are 9-3-1 ATS in the last 13 contests in Foxborough, and the road team is on a 19-6-1 ATS roll, though New England is 9-4-1 ATS in the last 14 meetings overall.

The Patriots are on a 1-10 ATS freefall laying more than 10 points at home and are on a 3-8 ATS purge as a division home chalk, but they sport positive ATS streaks of 20-5-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 against losing teams. The Jets are on a 5-1 ATS run as an underdog, but along with their current 1-5 ATS skid, they are on spread-covering slides of 1-7 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 1-5 in the AFC East and 1-4 in conference play.

The over for New England is on streaks of 6-2 at home (all as a favorite) and 4-1 in November, but the under is 5-2 in the Pats’ last seven as a favorite and 8-3-1 with them giving more than 10 points. For New York, the over is on runs of 4-1 overall, 6-0-1 in November, 5-1 against the AFC and 7-3 after a SU loss, but the under is on stretches of 7-3-1 with the Jets a pup, 4-0 with them getting more than 10 on the road and 9-4-1 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND

Cincinnati (7-2, 6-3 ATS) at Oakland (2-7, 4-5 ATS)

The streaking Bengals, all alone atop the AFC North, travel to the West Coast to take on the hapless Raiders at the Coliseum.

Cincinnati held defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh to just four field goals last week, springing an 18-12 upset as a 6½-point road pup, the third straight win and cover for the Bengals. Cincy has held those three foes – Chicago, Baltimore, then the Steelers -- to 12 points or less and now fields the league’s No. 2 scoring defense, allowing just 16.3 ppg.

Oakland lost to Kansas City 16-10 as a one-point home chalk for its third consecutive SU setback (1-2 ATS). The Raiders have now been held to 16 points or less in eight straight games, including five outings of 10 points or less. Not surprisingly, that puts them at 31st in the league in scoring, at a dismal 9.8 ppg, and Oakland holds that same spot in total offense, averaging a minuscule 222 ypg.

The Raiders’ woeful offensive effort finally led coach Tom Cable to bench former No. 1 overall draft pick JaMarcus Russell in favor of Bruce Gradkowski for the remainder of the season. Russell has just two TD passes against nine INTs, along with five lost fumbles.

These teams have met just twice this decade, splitting those games SU and ATS, with the home team winning in each case. Most recently, Cincinnati coasted 27-10 giving 10½ points in December 2006.

The Bengals have struggled as a favorite, shouldering ATS slides in that role of 1-6 overall, 1-6 on the road, 1-10 laying more than 10 points and 0-4 on the road at that same price, and they are also on a 5-11 ATS slide versus losing teams. However, Cincy still carries positive ATS streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-1 on the highway, 7-3 after a SU win, 18-7-1 in November and 6-3 as a non-division road favorite.

The Raiders have struggled regardless of role, as they are on ATS skids of 2-5 overall, 15-37-1 at the Coliseum, 9-21 as a home ‘dog and 6-14 in non-division home games.

Cincinnati sports “under” streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 10-3 after a spread-cover, 6-1 as a chalk and 5-1-1 against losing teams. Likewise, the under for Oakland is on rolls of 6-2 overall, 8-3 at home, 5-1 against the AFC, 15-5-1 in November and 40-16-2 against winning teams. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

San Diego (6-3, 4-5 ATS) at Denver (6-3 SU and ATS)

The reeling Broncos, once the toast of the league at 6-0 SU and ATS, take on the surging Chargers in a key AFC West battle at Invesco Field at Mile High.

Denver tumbled to lowly Washington 27-17 Sunday as a 3½-point road favorite, losing SU and ATS for the third straight week. The Broncos have mustered just 34 total points in those three losses, while giving up 85 points as all three opponents scored 27 or more. Denver is averaging just 18.6 ppg (24th), putting more pressure on its defense, which had been at the top of the league and still sits fourth in points allowed (16.8 ppg) and fifth in yards allowed (292.2 ypg).

QB Kyle Orton (foot) was hurt on the final play of the first half against the Redskins and missed practice all week. Orton will be a game-time decision, and if he can’t go, verteran Chris Simms would get his first start since 2006.

San Diego held off San Diego 31-23 Sunday as a one-point home chalk for its fourth win in a row (3-1 ATS), erasing what had been a three-game deficit to Denver in the division. The Chargers are having no trouble scoring, putting up 26.3 ppg on the year (sixth), paced by QB Philip Rivers and the seventh-best passing game (259.8 ypg). However, despite the presence of LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles, the Bolts are dead last in rushing, at just 75.1 ypg.

Denver dropped San Diego 34-23 as a 3½-point road pup last month, outscoring the Chargers 17-3 in the second half. Prior to that, though, this rivalry belonged to the Chargers, as they were on a 5-0-1 ATS roll (5-1 SU). The favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings, and the SU winner is on a 7-0-1 ATS tear.

The Broncos are on ATS plunges of 0-4 after a SU loss, 7-22 after a non-cover, 1-4 in November, 5-14-1 in the division (2-7 at home) and 7-18-1 at Invesco, but they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference contests. The Chargers are on a 22-10-4 ATS run in the AFC West (6-3 ATS on the road), but they carry negative pointspread streaks of 1-4 after a spread-cover, 2-5 after a SU win and 2-6 against the AFC.

The under for Denver is on stretches of 7-2 overall, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams and 6-1 against AFC foes, but the Broncos also hold “over” streaks of 11-4 inside the division, 15-4-2 after SU loss and 19-6-2 after an ATS setback. The Chargers, meanwhile, are on a bundle of “over” runs, including 9-4-2 overall, 4-1-2 in the division, 4-1 against winning teams, 8-3 after a SU win and 19-7-3 on the highway.

Furthermore, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Philadelphia (5-4 SU and ATS) at Chicago (4-5 SU and ATS)

Two teams looking to get back into the NFC playoff chase square off when the Eagles head to Soldier Field for a prime-time contest against the Bears.

Philadelphia fell to San Diego 31-23 last week as a one-point road ‘dog for its second consecutive SU and ATS setback. The Eagles are fifth in the league in scoring at 26.9 ppg, although they are just 12th in total yards (352.2 ypg). The big key for Philly has been turnovers, as it has posted a plus-10 margin, second in the league behind only Green Bay (plus-13). QB Donovan McNabb has avoided turnovers, tossing 12 TDs passes and just four INTs, and he’s lost just one fumble.

Chicago played the Thursday game last week, coming up short in a 10-6 loss at San Francisco as a 3½-point underdog, losing SU and ATS for the second straight week. QB Jay Cutler killed his team with five INTs, and he now has a league-worst 17 INTs on the year to put the Bears at minus-5 in turnover margin (27th). Chicago is middle-of-the-pack offensively, averaging 334.3 ypg (18th) and 20.7 ppg (20th), while allowing 313.8 ypg (10th) and 22.3 ppg (19th).

Chicago is on a 2-0 SU and ATS uptick in this rivalry, winning and cashing each of the past two seasons, including a 24-20 home win in September 2008 as a three-point pup. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven clashes, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in that stretch.

Despite their setbacks the past two weeks, the Eagles remain on ATS surges of 5-1 after either a SU or ATS loss, 4-1 against losing teams and 12-5 in conference action, but they are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven November starts and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 as a road chalk of three or less.

The Bears sport positive ATS streaks of 4-1 as a home pup, 12-5 after a SU loss and 11-5 getting three or less at home, though they shoulder negative pointspread trends of 1-4 overall, 1-7 as a ‘dog, 1-6-1 against winning teams and 2-6 in November.

The over has been the play for Philadelphia, as it is on tears of 8-2 overall, 6-0 after a SU loss, 7-0 after a non-cover, 6-1 against the NFC and 4-1 on the road. Chicago is on “over” runs of 22-10 at Soldier Field and 31-15-1 against NFC opponents, but the under for the Bears is on upswings of 4-0 from the underdog role, 6-1 after a SU loss and 7-2 after an ATS defeat.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Texans look for sweep
By AllStar.com

At the start of the season this figured to be a matchup of two of the AFC’s best teams. We now know better, but this is still should be a good game. The Titans have won three straight, and feel like they are back on track. Houston is a different story. On paper they have the talent to play with any team in the league, but have had a hard time keeping momentum. The Texans have told us they believe they have to win this game to keep their playoff hopes alive. Look for a steady dose of Steve Slaton and Andre Johnson to control the clock, and keep the red hot Chris Johnson off the field.

Quarterback:
We are not ready to put Vince Young in the Hall Of Fame, but there is no question the Titans have responded to the decision to put him in the lineup. We still wonder why the decision had to come from Owner Bud (the finger) Adams instead of Jeff Fisher. Young’s numbers are not overwhelming (2 TD’s/2 Int’s 86RTG) but opposing teams understand that he is a different kind of weapon then Kerry Collins. We would like to see him stretch the field by throwing deep in order to open up the running game for Johnson.

Matt Schaub brings 17 touchdown passes into the game, but he also brings nine picks. The problem with Schaub all year has been his decision making, and the fact the he continues to try to force throws, which has led to some untimely turnovers. His main weapon is still Andre Johnson, but the Texans were devastated by the loss of TE Owen Daniels who led the team with five TD catches. Schaub had a monster game against the Titans in Week 2 throwing for more than 350 yards. We don’t see those kinds of numbers again against a healthy Titans secondary.

Running Back
It is too bad the Titans have struggled as much as they have in ‘09, because it has kept Chris Johnson from getting the kind of press he deserves. Johnson has been a monster as proven by the fact he became the first back in NFL history to have a 90+ rushing TD, 50+ rushing TD, and 60+ receiving TD in the same game. Since the Titans are keeping Vince Young on a short leash, we expect a steady dose of Johnson. It is tough to argue the game plan since Johnson averages more than six yards per carry. Lyn Dale White has become the forgotten man for the Titans in Johnson’s breakout year with just 59 carries, and 1TD to this point.

For the Texans Steve Slaton continues to be listed as the No. 1 back on the depth chart, but his five fumbles are making that a week to week decision for Head Coach Gary Kubiak. The rushing game for Houston has not been very good, and Slaton and Ryan Moats need to step up in order to take the pressure of Schaub. Moats has been impressive in limited duty. He has as many rushing TD’s as Slaton in half the carries, and averages a yard more per carry then Slaton. For a team that is fighting for its playoff hopes, it may be the time to give Moats more chances, especially against a Titans run defense that has a knack of giving up big plays.

Wide Receiver:
None of the names listed at WR for the Titans are guys that should start thinking about their speeches at Canton anytime soon. We have never been able to figure out why Jeff Fisher settles for guys like Nate Washington instead of going out in free agency or in the draft and getting a legit No. 1. Look at the best teams in the league, and they all have a legit threat for the passing game. It is no surprise that Chris Johnson leads the team with 30 catches. Washington is second with 25, but our point is confirmed when you read that Washington needs one TD catch for a new career high of six.

On the other side of the ball, Andre Johnson is one of the league’s best. He has 4 100 yard games already in ‘09, and has a history of pounding the Titans. Johnson is looking for his third straight 100+ game vs. the Titans, and has averaged 178 in his past two against Tennessee. With the season ending injury to Daniels, and Slaton’s problems holding on to the football, it would not be a surprise to see Johnson get plenty of looks. He will be matched up against one of the league’s best in Cortland Finnegan, but if history repeats itself, it could be a big night for the ESPN the Magazine cover boy.

Defense/Special Teams:
The Titans defense which has been brutal most of the year has started to show signs of life during the three-game win streak. Last week against the Bills, the Titans had two sacks, three tackles for a loss, and four QB hits. The bigger number that stands out is in the turnover department. In the six Tennessee losses, the Titans were -10 in turnover margin. During the win streak, the Titans are +7 with three INT returns for TD’s in the last two games. This could be a factor Monday night if Schaub again tries to force the issue in the passing game.

If you are the Texans, you will see on simple message written on the chalkboard during all defensive meetings this week…”Stop Chris Johnson and we win the Game”. If only it was that simple. Johnson has been the key weapon during the Titans resurgence averaging more than 165 yards rushing PER GAME, not to mention the fact he added 100 yard receiving against the Bills. The Texans will load the box and force Young to beat them with his arm which may contain Johnson rushing the ball, but how the Texans defend him coming out of the backfield will be a major concern.

Key Injuries:
HOU-TE Owen Daniels/knee-(out)

Betting Trends:
Titans are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record
Titans are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the AFC South
Texans are 4-0 ATS in their last four games against the AFC South
The OVER is 4-0 in the Titans last four games
The OVER is 6-1 in the last seven meetings between the two teams
The UNDERDOG is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the two teams

Eagles, Bears ready for SNF
By AllStar.com

Sunday night’s match up, the Philadelphia Eagles (5-4) and the Chicago Bears (4-5) features two teams fighting for their post-season lives.

Neither team was projected to have a difficult time reaching the post season, but with the Eagles playing the NFC and the Bears in the NFC North, all of sudden the playoffs aren’t a sure thing.

The Eagles chances of making the post-season took a hit last week, when they fell to the Chargers 31-23, but more importantly when offensive weapon Brian Westbrook suffered his second concussion of the season.

Without Westbrook the Eagles will have to rely heavily on Donovan McNabb and rookie LeSean McCoy against the Bears.

Last week against the Chargers, McNabb threw for a season-high 450 yards while completing 35 of 55 passes. As well as the offense played, McNabb had trouble getting the Eagled from the red zone to the end zone. Philadelphia was stopped four times in the red zone, setting for David Akers field goals and eventually an eight-point loss.

“When you have those opportunities to score we have to pound it in there,” McNabb said.

Despite the consecutive losses to the Cowboys at home and the Chargers on the road, McNabb and the Eagles are still in contention for a playoff spot, trailing NFC East-leading Dallas by one game.

With Westbrook out, McCoy will take over as the Eagles primary running back threat. The rookie leads the Eagles with 353 yards and two touchdowns. “I just want to help out the offense as much as possible,” McCoy, the 21st pick in the second round of the 2009 draft, said. “I never really expected to play a big role like this. But I got drafted for a reason. I have my chance, my opportunity and I have to make the best of it.”

As much as the Eagles need and want this win, they can’t take a chance relying on McCoy too much. Philadelphia will have to sink or swim with McNabb.

“This is a game that we need to win,” McNabb told the Eagles’ official Web site. “That’s the way I’m approaching it and that’s the way the other guys are approaching it as well.”

Speaking of quarterbacks, the Bears (4-5) have expected a lot more than they received, from first-year, Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler.

Last week against the 49ers, Cutler threw a career-high five interceptions in Chicago’s 10-6 loss at San Francisco. The Bears outgained the 49ers 134 yards but had to settle for two field goals.

Last season with Denver, Cutler, who threw 18 interceptions, this season in Chicago, he already has a league-leading 17.

The Bears coaching staff isn’t putting all the blame on Cutler. “It’s different in each one,” offensive coordinator Ron Turner said. “I look at three of them - and I’m not blaming anyone else, I’m just making a point it’s a team game. I couldn’t really say, ‘Jay, you need to do something different on those plays.’”

Cutler has been forced to carry the offense because of a struggling running game. Chicago is 30th in the NFL at 85.2 yards rushing per game. If fingers are going to get pointed, they should be directed towards second year running back Matt Forte. In his rookie season, Forte ran for 1,238 yards but in this season he’s been held to 482 yards.

The Bears still believe a playoff berth as a wild-card team is possible. They understand with a 4-game lead, the Vikings all but have the division wrapped up but to make it to the post-season they’ll have to play better down the stretch.

“We have no room for any more losses,” defensive tackle Tommie Harris. “If you lose, you’re going to be hoping another team loses so you can get in. You don’t want to do that. … It is basically in our hands right now. We have to do a better job and everybody has to step up.”

The Bears have won the last two meetings against the Eagles, including a 24-20 victory at home last season.

INJURIES:

BEARS:
SS – Al Afalva - Shoulder - probable
OL – Orlando Pace - Concussion - probable
S – Kevin Payne - Back - doubtful
TE – Desmond Clark - Neck - doubtful
C – Olin Kreutz - Back - probable

EAGLES:
Brian Westbrook - Concussion - expected to miss game.
Quintin Demps - Ankle - expected to miss game
Sheldon Brown - Hamstring - doubtful for game

BETTING TRENDS:
The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a team with a losing record
The Bears are 1-7 ATS in their last eight games as an UNDERDOG
The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games
The OVER is 6-1 in the Eagles last seven games against the NFC
The OVER is 22-10 in the Bears last 32 home games
The UNDERDOG is 6-1 ATS in the last seven games between the two teams

Tips and Trends

Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens

Colts (-1.5, O/U 44.5): The Colts remain a perfect 9-0 SU after their great game against the Patriots last week. The Colts are also a perfect 4-0 on the road both SU and ATS. QB Peyton Manning has been unstoppable this season, as he's thrown for more than 300 YDS in 8 of 9 games this season. The Colts offensive line has done a great job protecting Manning, as he's only been sacked 8 times in 9 games. The Colts still allow a league low 15.8 points per game. Despite injuries to several starters, the Colts defense will continue to keep points off the scoreboard.

Colts are 4-0 ATS last 4 road games.
Under is 5-1 last 6 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (finger) is probable.
DB Bob Sanders (bicep) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Ravens: The Ravens are fighting for a playoff berth at 5-4 SU on the season. The Ravens have only won 2 of their past 6 games SU. QB Joe Flacco has struggled a bit of late, as he's only thrown for more than 200 YDS in 1 of his past 5 games. In fact, 4 of the past 5 games the offense of the Ravens has gained less than 300 total YDS. Defensively, the Ravens continue to be the Ravens. Opponents have only scored 24 PTS against the Ravens over the past 3 games. The Ravens have lost their last 5 Sunday games after playing on Monday Night Football the week before.

Ravens are 7-3 ATS last 10 games as an underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 home games.

Key Injuries - DE Haloti Ngata (ankle) is probable.
TE Todd Heap (chest) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Philadelphia Eagles at Chicago Bears

Eagles (-3, O/U 45): Philadelphia is likely to come into tonight desperate considering they have lost their past 2 games. The Eagles are 2-2 on the road both SU and ATS. When the Eagles are successful at running the football, they win games. They're only averaging 60 YDS rushing in their 4 defeats. RB LeSean McCoy will need to play well considering Westbrook isn't playing. This Eagles defense has 16 INTs this year, and will be looking to pressure Jay Cutler into more mistakes. On the road, the Eagles need to win the turnover battle to win this game.

Eagles are 5-1 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is out.
CB Sheldon Brown (hamstring) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 30 (Side of the Day)

Bears: Chicago comes into the national spotlight tonight struggling, having lost 4 of their past 5 games SU. The Bears struggled the last time they were at home too, losing badly to the Cardinals. Prior to that game, the Bears were 3-0 at home both SU and ATS. QB Jay Cutler has been a turnover machine, as he has 17 INTs on the season. The good news is that he only has 2 INTs at home against 7 TDs. His QB rating at home is more than 30 points higher at home. The Bears will look to get RB Matt Forte and the running game going, as they've rushed for fewer than 85 YDS in 4 of the past 5 games. This Bears defense needs to play well and inspire this team at home. The Bears have struggled on defense, allowing more than 40 PTS in 2 of their past 4 games.

Bears are 4-1 last 5 games as a home underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - C Olin Kreutz (back) is probable.
CB Zackary Bowman (abdominal) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21