NFL News and Notes Sunday 11/28

Week 12 Showdowns
By Kevin Rogers
VegasInsider.com

The Thanksgiving weekend wraps up with several stellar matchups on Sunday as four games feature contests with both teams owning at least 6-4 records. The surprising Buccaneers look to keep rolling on the road at Baltimore, while the Falcons and Packers do battle at the Georgia Dome. We'll start with the suddenly struggling Giants hosting the streaking Jaguars at the new Meadowlands.

Jaguars at Giants (-7, 44½)

Three weeks ago, New York looked like the class of the NFC and Jacksonville was struggling to stay at the .500 mark. Now, the Jaguars are the hotter team out of the two with both squads meeting in New Jersey with identical 6-4 records in an important interconference game.

The Giants stubbed their toe in consecutive division losses to the Cowboys and Eagles. New York made a change at running back with Ahmad Bradshaw getting demoted in favor of Brandon Jacobs for Sunday due to Bradshaw's fumbling problems. To make matter worse, the Giants lost another big-play weapon with Hakeem Nicks sitting out three weeks following a left leg injury. New York's defense is having issues now by allowing at least 27 points in three of the last four games, while giving up seven points to Charlie Whitehurst and the Seahawks in Week 10.

The Jags are turning into the NFL's new cardiac kids with back-to-back last minute wins over the Texans and Browns to creep back into the AFC playoff race. David Garrard has thrown eight touchdowns and three interceptions in the last three victories, even though all three picks came against Cleveland. With the explosion of the offense, that has translated into 'overs' in the last four games for Jacksonville. The Jags aren't in a great spot here, compiling a 2-4 SU/ATS record since the start of last season on the road off a victory.

Packers at Falcons (-2, 47½)

Two of the top clubs in the NFC hook up for a key contest in Atlanta as the 7-3 Packers take on the 8-2 Falcons. Atlanta has New Orleans and Tampa Bay breathing down its neck in the NFC South, while Green Bay enters the day tied with Chicago atop the NFC North.

The Falcons cruised past the Rams last Sunday as short road favorites, the fourth straight win for Mike Smith's team. Atlanta has been a winning machine at the Georgia Dome when Matt Ryan starts at quarterback, compiling an 18-1 SU mark. Playing as a home favorite of four points or less since 2008 has been nearly a flawless proposition for the Falcons, going 6-0 ATS. The 'over' is on a five-game run for Atlanta, but all five have seen totals between 43 and 44½.

The Packers are rolling at the moment with four straight wins after consecutive overtime setbacks to the Redskins and Dolphins. Green Bay has overcome numerous injuries to climb back to the top of the NFC North, while allowing 10 combined points in the last three victories. Since Mike McCarthy's arrival in 2006, the Packers are 15-7 ATS as a road underdog, including the 9-0 shutout of the Jets as a 6½-point 'dog.

Buccaneers at Ravens (-7½, 41½)

One of these teams in not surprised to be 7-3 at this point, but the other probably didn't anticipate a 7-3 record after a 3-13 campaign last season. The remarkable turnaround for Tampa Bay has put the Bucs not only in the NFC playoff race, but also for the NFC South title. The Ravens, meanwhile, are fighting it out with the Steelers atop the AFC North after a blowout victory of the woeful Panthers last Sunday.

Tampa Bay has compiled a 5-0 ATS mark when receiving points on the road this season, while going 9-1 ATS since last November as an away underdog. The Bucs may not dazzle in any of the major offensive categories, but they have benefited backers with a 7-3 ATS ledger this season. The looming question heading into Sunday's matchup is whether or not Tampa Bay can compete with the big boys as all three of its losses have come against Pittsburgh, New Orleans, and Atlanta.

Baltimore is 2-2 ATS this season when laying at least eight points, but have failed to cover twice at home as long favorites against Buffalo and Cleveland. Following a slow start offensively through the first four games, the Ravens have scored at least 26 points in four of the last six games. Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore owns a 12-5 ATS record as a home favorite since 2008.

Eagles (-3½, 42) at Bears

Philadelphia continues to impress with Michael Vick's resurgence as the 7-3 Eagles visit Soldier Field to take on the 7-3 Bears. Chicago comes into this contest with a couple extra days of preparation after the 16-0 shutout at Miami last Thursday. The Eagles are rolling with three straight wins, including Sunday's triumph over the Giants, 27-17 as three-point favorites.

Andy Reid's club is 4-1 on the highway with the lone blemish coming with Vick injured in a 37-19 defeat at Tennessee in Week 7. The 'under' against the Giants halted a five-game 'over' streak for the Eagles, who have tallied at least 26 points in all five games that Vick has played wire-to-wire.

Chicago is also on a three-game winning streak, while cashing the 'under' in all three victories. Lovie Smith's defense has stepped up by allowing a combined 32 points during the hot streak, as the Bears continue to lead the league in 'unders' with eight in 10 games. Chicago has been money when getting points this season, cashing in four of five contests as an underdog.

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Week 12 Games

Vikings (3-7) @ Redskins (5-5) - Frazier’s first game as interim coach; expect team to play much harder for him than they did for despised Childress. Vikings lost four of last five games, and trailed by 14 with 5:00 left in the win; they’re 0-5 on road, 0-4-1 vs spread as underdog and even though they’ve got one of best RB’s in NFL, they’ve run ball for only 81 ypg over last three games. Redskins allowed 16 or less points in their five wins, 27+ in all five losses; they’re 5-2 in games decided by six or less points, but also lost three of last four at home. Skins allowed 260-151 rushing yards in their last two games. NFC North dogs are 8-4-1, 6-4-1 on road. NFC East favorites are 6-8, 4-6 at home. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Viking games.

Jaguars (6-4) @ Giants (6-4) - Jaguars scored 35-31-24 points in winning last three games, last two in dramatic fashion at home, but when they lose, they lose big; all four of their losses are by 22+ points. Front-running nitwits in Big Apple media doubt that Tom Coughlin can coach? Dude was Jaguars’ first head coach; after going 4-12 the first year, Jags went 45-19 in Years 2-5. He’s won Super Bowl with Giants, but naysayers point out his teams have been sagging in second half of recent years. Giants are -6 in turnovers this year (-10 in losses, +4 in wins); they allowed 27+ points in all four losses. Big Blue is 2-3 as home favorite, with wins by 13-14-8 points. Over is 6-1 in Jags’ last seven games, 4-1 in Giants’ last five. AFC South road dogs are 7-3 vs. spread.

Steelers (7-3) @ Bills (2-8) - Pittsburgh is only three-hour ride from Buffalo; expect to see lot of black/gold in crowd for this game. Improving Bills won last two games, after losing three in row by FG each; its been seven weeks since Buffalo lost a game by more than 7 points- they’re 4-1-1 vs. spread in last six games as underdog. Bills ran ball for 151-141 yards last two weeks, after averaging 108 ypg in first eight; they’re 2-2 if they don’t lose turnover battle (losses by 5-10 points). Steelers averaging 24.8 ppg since Big Ben came back, after scoring less than 20 in three of four games he missed- they converted 18 of 40 (45%) of 3rd downs in last three games. Only teams to beat Steelers are Pats-Ravens-Saints; NFL’s elite. Pitt is 4-3 as a favorite this season.

Titans (5-5) @ Texans (4-6) - Tennessee drafted Houston native Vince Young in part to tweak Houstonians, figuring he would haunt division rivals for 10+ years; now Young isn’t even welcome in Titans’ practice facility, and Titans have 3rd-stringer Rusty Smith (played at Florida Atlantic) under center, with awful Chris Simms in reserve, vs. Texans squad that is 0-4 since its bye, allowing 30 ppg with consecutive heartbreaking, last-second losses. Houston hasn’t held anyone under 24 points all season; they’re 1-3-1 as favorite this year. Tennessee lost its last three games, getting outscored 47-19 in second half. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games. Over is 5-2 in Titans’ last seven games, 4-1 in Texans’ last five.

Panthers (1-9) @ Browns (3-7) - Not often a team loses when +5 in turnovers (something like 42-2 this year) but Browns pulled it off last week. Carolina’s greatest moment was when Jake Delhomme led them to NFC title; now Delhomme will start against his old team if gimpy rookie McCoy (ankle) can’t go. Panthers are terrible, covering only one of their nine losses; bad teams have almost no home field advantage (1-3 as home underdog). Browns lost only time they were favored this year (16-14 to Chiefs in Week 2); they lost last two games in gut-wrenching fashion, after beating Saints/Patriots before that. Carolina won all three series games by 14-7-8 points, winning two visits here, 31-17/17-6. Last five Cleveland games went over the total.

Buccaneers (7-3) @ Ravens (7-3) - Fourth road game in five weeks for Tampa team that won four of last five games (4-0 vs spread last four), and is 5-2 vs. spread as dog this year; their 2010 losses are by 25-25-6 points. Bucs are 4-0 in games decided by less than six points. Ravens won six of last eight games, are 4-0 at home (2-2 as home fave) winning by 7-14-3-16 points. AFC North favorites are 6-7 vs. spread, 3-6 at home; NFC South underdogs are 4-6, 3-3 on road. Bucs won two of three series games, winning 25-0 in last visit here; average series total is 28.0. Three of last four games for both teams went over total. Ravens host arch-rival Steelers last week, making this trap game for them. Bucs allowed one TD on 22 drives (seven 3/outs) over last two games.

Eagles (7-3) @ Bears (7-3) - Both teams are 3-0 since their bye, with Eagles scoring 37.3 ppg (11 TDs on 33 drives), while Bears allowed just 10.7 ppg (gave up one TD on 21 drives in last two games). Eagles are 4-1 on road, and led in 4th quarter of only loss (@ Titans); they’ve run ball for 201 ypg over last three games. Bears allowed total of 155 yards on 54 rushes in last three games, a stat that will be sorely tested with elusive Vick on other side of ball. Philly is 6-2 in last eight series games, winning five of last six played here (former QB McNabb is from Chicago). Average total in last six series games is 30.5. Five of last six Philly games went over total; under is 6-1-1 in last eight Chicago games. Bears are 4-1 against spread as an underdog this year.

Packers (7-3) @ Falcons (8-2) - To me, these are two best teams in NFC. Road team won four of last five series games; Pack lost four of last five visits to Atlanta, but this is just their second visit here in last 18 years. Well-coached Falcons won eight of last nine games (lost 31-17 @ Philly), scoring 31.5 ppg during 4-game win streak, during which they’ve converted on 36 of 64 (56.3%) of 3rd down plays. Packers allowed only one TD on 31 drives in last three games, outscoring foes 85-10; they’re 3-2 on road. All three Pack losses this year are by 3 points. Atlanta is 5-0 at home, with last four home wins all by 7 or less points; they’re 5-3 vs spread as favorite. Eagles have 12 takeaways (+10) in last four games. Last five Falcon games all went over the total.

Dolphins (5-5) @ Raiders (5-5) - Thigpen’s first ’10 start didn’t go well, as Fish gained just 187 yards and never got inside Chicago red zone in 16-0 loss, but they had three extra days to prep for this, which could help (Falcons/ Ravens both covered last week, after playing Thursday game week before). Dolphins are 4-1 if they allow 17 or less points, 1-4 if they don’t. Raiders are 4-1 at home (2-1 as home fave), scoring 30.3 ppg in last three home games. Fish are 4-1 on road, losing only at Miami. Dolphins are 9-3 in last dozen series games, winning four of last five played here, but their last visit here was in ’05. AFC West home favorites are 7-3 vs. spread; AFC East road underdogs are 8-2. All five Miami road games stayed under total.

Chiefs (6-4) @ Seahawks (5-5) - Chiefs are 1-4 on road, losing last four while allowing 31.5 ppg; they’re 6-1 if they allow 20 or less points. Seattle lost three of last four games, allowing 15 TDs on 45 drives; with five losses by 15+ points, only time they look like 1st-place squad is when you look at NFL standings. Hawks have only four TDs on last 21 trips to red zone (12 FGs, 3.05 ppp). Home side won six of last seven series games, with Chiefs losing four of last five visits here, but this is their first visit since 2002. AFC West teams are 5-9 vs. spread in non-division road games. NFC West home teams are 7-6, with underdogs 9-4 vs spread in those games. Last three Kansas City games, five of last six Seahawks games went over the total.

Rams (4-6) @ Broncos (3-7) - Denver got crushed in San Diego Monday night, has now lost 15 of last 20 games for first time since 1972. Home side won last seven series games; Rams lost last three visits here by 11-21-7 points, with last Mile High win back in ’79. Broncos are 2-3 at home, with average total in those games 56.0- they’re 1-1 as favorite. Rams are 0-4 on road, but three of those losses are by 3 or less points; this is first of three straight road games for Rams, so they better figure out how to win on road, or they’ll fall out of contention, even in awful NFC West. In two games since their bye, Rams are just 3-24 on 3rd down, as teams are clamping down on Amendola, and no other receiver has stepped up to make plays. Over is 7-3 in Denver games this season.

Chargers (5-5) @ Colts (6-4) - Surging San Diego won four of last five in series, beating Indy in both ‘07/’08 playoffs; Chargers won six of last eight visits here. Bolts won last three games overall, scoring 33-29-35 points (13 TDs on 31 drives); their +10 advantage in field position Monday was only second time this year they had edge there, so they must’ve worked on special teams during bye week. Colts are 4-0 at home, scoring 27.5 ppg; they’re -7 in turnovers in their four losses, +10 in wins. San Diego has only two takeaways in its last six games (-10). Colts lack balance on offense, running for just 62-76-71 yards in last three games. Chargers are underdog for first time this season. Last three Indy home games stayed under total.

49ers (3-7) @ Cardinals (3-7) - Arizona is 0-5 since its bye, giving up 33 ppg in last four games; they lost last two home games, have 21 penalties in last two games and lost field position battle in last three games, by 17-13-5 yards. 49ers are 0-4 in true road games (won at neutral London site), losing by 25-21-2-3 points- they’re 1-6 when they score less than 23 points. Arizona has only four offensive TDs on 34 drives in last three games, during which opponents started eight drives in Cardinal territory, while Arizona started only one on enemy grounds. Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West games this season. Niners converted just 3-23 on 3rd down in last two games; they’re 4-3 in last seven visits here. Eight of last nine Cardinal games went over total.

Gridiron Angles - Week 12
By Vince Akins

Eagles at Bears - The Eagles are 10-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since January 13, 2007 after a divisional game which they held the ball more than their opponent. The Bears are 0-7-1 ATS (-13.9 ppg) since November 24, 1991 when they won by double digits in each of the past two weeks. The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since January 15, 2006 when facing a team that has an average takeaway margin of at least +1 per game, season-to-date. The Eagles are 8-0-1 OU (8.2 ppg) since October 15, 2006 within 3 of pick vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Bears are 0-6 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.

Steelers at Bills - The Steelers are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since January 2006 when they scored at least 35 points last game and covered by at least a TD. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since November 15, 1993 versus the Bills. The Steelers are 0-7-1 ATS (-4.9 ppg) since September 18, 2006 as a road favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Steelers are 0-6-1 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since October 22, 2006 on the road the week after scoring 34+ points. The Bills are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.0 ppg) since September 21, 2008 at home after a straight up win. The Steelers are 10-0 OU (13.4 ppg) since December 24, 1989 as a road favorite the week after at home in which they had at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (9.8 ppg) since January 08, 2006 after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average at home. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-12.9 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Bills are 0-6 OU (-14.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 at home after a straight up win.

Rams at Broncos - The Rams are 0-6 ATS (-19.4 ppg) since December 16, 2007 as a dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since October 13, 2002 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (-21.2 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

Panthers at Browns -The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (13.6 ppg) since December 24, 2006 when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The Panthers are 0-6 ATS (-8.7 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Browns are 13-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 16, 2003 after a game where the total was at least 42.5 and they gave up more points than expected. The Browns are 0-8 OU (-14.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 versus any team with fewer wins. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-9.4 ppg) since September 15, 1991 at home when their opponent is off two 7+ losses.

Chargers at Colts - The Chargers are 7-0-2 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 09, 2003 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Colts are 7-0-2 ATS (8.9 ppg) since September 26, 1999 within 3 of pick after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average. The Colts are 6-0 ATS (5.3 ppg) since November 02, 2003 within 3 of pick when they get a team off a Monday Night game. The Chargers are 6-0-1 OU (6.3 ppg) since December 03, 1995 the week after playing on Monday Night Football against a divisional opponent. The Colts are 0-7-1 OU (-12.9 ppg) since December 09, 1990 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week against a non-divisional opponent.

Packers at Falcons - The Packers are 12-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since October 14, 2001 as a dog the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Packers are 10-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 24, 1989 when they swept a team last week on the road. The Packers are 8-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since December 24, 2004 on the road when facing a team that has forced an average of fewer than four punts per game season-to-date. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 13, 2005 as a dog when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last two games. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since November 17, 2002 as a favorite when they had a positive takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 23, 2008 when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak.

Jaguars at Giants - The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS (15.6 ppg) since December 16, 2001 as a dog after a win in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Giants are 0-7 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since September 22, 1991 as a home 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since November 24, 2002 on the road after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.

Dolphins at Raiders - The Dolphins are 0-11 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a favorite after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a favorite versus any team with the same record. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a favorite when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since December 24, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Raiders are 8-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a dog the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-13.9 ppg) since October 17, 2004 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-7 OU (-9.1 ppg) since November 12, 2006 at home after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Raiders are 0-6 OU (-8.3 ppg) since November 15, 1998 as a home dog when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak.

Buccaneers at Ravens - The Buccaneers are 9-0 ATS (15.5 ppg) since December 06, 1999 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Ravens are 0-10 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since November 8, 2009 when they controlled the ball for at least 32 minutes last game. The Ravens are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since October 27, 1996 as a 7+ favorite versus any team with the same record. The Ravens are 7-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since October 14, 2007 as a 7+ favorite after a straight up win. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (12.4 ppg) since December 26, 1999 at home when they won by 21+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Buccaneers are 0-8 OU (-9.1 ppg) since September 14, 2003 after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Ravens are 0-6 OU (-10.4 ppg) since November 26, 2006 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak.

Vikings at Redskins - The Vikings are 9-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since November 19, 2001 after a Sunday game where they lost by at least 21 points. The Vikings are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 03, 1996 within 3 of pick after playing at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Redskins are 0-10 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since October 03, 1999 at home versus any team with fewer wins, after a straight up win. The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-10.1 ppg) since December 02, 2001 as a favorite after a road game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a home favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a dog after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-10.6 ppg) since December 30, 2007 as a home favorite. The Redskins are 7-0 OU (5.6 ppg) since December 23, 2001 within 3 of pick when they lost their last two home games.

Chiefs at Seahawks - The Chiefs are 0-9 ATS (-7.6 ppg) since September 13, 1998 on the road after a straight up win at home as a TD+ favorite. The Chiefs are 8-0-1 ATS (7.2 ppg) since October 31, 2004 within 3 of pick off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since September 27, 1998 as a road favorite between home games. The Seahawks are 12-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since November 22, 1992 when they were a double-digit dog last game and trailed after the first quarter. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (16.5 ppg) since December 17, 1989 within 3 of pick the week after as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Seahawks are 0-11-1 OU (-5.3 ppg) since November 13, 2005 when they allowed at least 100 more yards passing last week than their season-to-date average.

Titans at Texans - The Texans are 0-12-2 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since January 2006 when they scored more than expected in a game which went over by at least 10 points last game. The Titans are 7-0-1 OU (16.6 ppg) since October 29, 2001 on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last three games. The Titans are 0-6 OU (-12.4 ppg) since January 03, 2004 on the road after playing at home as a TD+ favorite. The Texans are 8-0 OU (13.1 ppg) since December 24, 2006 at home after a straight up loss as a dog.

49ers at Cardinals - The 49ers are 11-0-1 ATS (6.8 ppg) since November 10, 2008 when they allowed 21+ points last game on a Sunday. The 49ers are 8-0-1 ATS (13.7 ppg) since December 17, 1990 as a favorite vs a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football. The 49ers are 0-6 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since November 14, 1999 within 3 of pick after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Cardinals are 14-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since October 14, 1990 within 3 of pick at home when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Cardinals are 8-0-1 ATS (9.8 ppg) since October 02, 2005 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (9.9 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a home dog after a straight up loss. The 49ers are 0-11 OU (-9.6 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 8-0-1 OU (14.7 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Cardinals are 12-0-1 OU (9.0 ppg) since November 06, 2005 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Cardinals are 0-9-1 OU (-7.6 ppg) since November 05, 2000 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent.

Total Talk - Week 12
By Chris David

Week 11 Recap

After watching the ‘over’ go 19-6 in the two previous weeks, the bookmakers caught a little reprieve in Week 11 as the totals produced an 8-8 ledger. More importantly for the suits behind the betting counter, all three of the primetime games on national television went ‘under’ the number. On the season, the ‘over’ still owns a 91-67-2 (58%) record and that number increased after Thanksgiving Day. The Patriots almost hit the ‘over’ themselves during their 45-21 win over the Lions in the afternoon matinee. Then, the Cowboys and Saints exploded for 31 second-half points to help cash the second ‘over’ ticket of the day. Fortunately for the books, the Jets and Bengals combined for 36 points late, which never threatened the closing number of 43 ½ points.

Bad Beats

This section could and should become a weekly installment and it seems like all we talk about is how a game should’ve stayed ‘under’ yet it went ‘over.’ In Week 11, this instance happened not once but twice and it was all about big plays on offense and defense.

Baltimore and Carolina had a low total (37.5) listed, yet the Ravens held a commanding 20-6 lead heading into the fourth quarter and it’s fair to say the game was on pace to go ‘over’ but the way it happened was comical. Baltimore outscored the Panthers 17-7 in the final quarter with the points coming from two pick-sixes and an 88-yard touchdown pass.

The Jaguars have been an ‘over’ team this season and the streak continued in Week 11 against Cleveland albeit very luckily. Jacksonville led 10-7 at the break but trailed 17-10 with less than five minutes left in the game. The Jags knotted it up and then Cleveland came down and took a 20-17 lead a minute later. Keep in mind that the total opened 43 ½ on this matchup and closed at 43. Sure enough, the Jags and Maurice Jones Drew went 77 yards in four plays to take a 24-20 lead and eventual victory. Oh yeah, the game went ‘over’ too.

Five at Four

Personally, I wish the NFL had a staggered schedule with games starting at 1:00, 1:30, 2:00 and then 4:00 and 4:30 ET, which would allow us gamblers time to digest, enjoy the action and then press our bets or more often than not chase. Fortunately, our wish has sort of come through in Week 12 with six battles set for 1:00 ET before a five-pack at 4:00 ET. Let’s take a closer look at the handful of evening battles that could face the all-important weather factor.

Miami at Oakland: The Dolphins have watched all five of their road games go ‘under’ this and the offense just put up a bagel last week against Chicago (0-16), plus the injuries are piling up. Even though the Raiders have put up 23 or more in four of their five home games, they’ve been aided by special teams and defensive scores. Reports have QB Tyler Thigpen listed as the starter for Miami but Chad Henne could see action as well. More importantly, Dolphins wide receiver Brandon Marshall is expected to miss action.

Kansas City at Seattle: This non-conference affair has a pretty high number (44.5) but both teams have shown the ability to score and get scored upon this season. The Seahawks have given up 33 or more in three of their last four and who could forget the 49 the Chiefs gave up two weeks ago to Denver. Kansas City has averaged 30 PPG in its last two games to offset the glaring weakness on the defensive side of the ball but the same can’t be said for Seattle. Pete Carroll and company did put up 36 against Arizona on the road two weeks ago, however they’ve been stifled to 3, 7 and 19 points in the other three previous affairs. Which offense shows up in the Great Northwest this week?

Tampa Bay at Baltimore: The Ravens have always been known for their defense but this year’s squad has a potent offense. The unit has put up 20-plus points in their last six games and they’ve eclipsed the 30-point barrier three times during this stretch, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-2. The defense (17.8 PPG) is still legit and they have the ability to create points, just 14 last week against Carolina. It’s safe to say that the Buccaneers have been the biggest surprise this season and what’s impressive about the team is their play on the road. Tampa has gone 4-1 this year and it’s put up 20-plus on the scoreboard in all five of those games. Dare we say six? If they do, then another ‘over’ ticket is doable. Bettors can shop on this total, with numbers ranging from 41 to 42.5.

Philadelphia at Chicago: Something has to give in this matchup. The Eagles have seen the ‘over’ go 4-1 but the Bears have watched the ‘under’ go 4-1 at Soldier Field. Michael Vick and Philadelphia’s explosive attack was somewhat held in check last week to the Giants but they still managed to put up 27, granted 10 came late in the fourth. Still, hard to ignore an offense (28.4 PPG, 399 YPG) that is ranked second in points and total offense. The Bears offense is anything but a juggernaut and the defense (14.6 PPG) has been great this season. Then again, they haven’t faced a potent offense like the Eagles and the total of 42 points is the highest the Bears have seen in the last six weeks.

St. Louis at Denver: The Rams have had trouble scoring on the road (14.3 PPG) this season but Denver’s defense (28.7 PPG) is ranked 31st in points allowed. And it’s no surprise that Denver likes to air it out, which has helped the ‘over’ go 4-1 at Mile High this season. High number (44.5) here and some gamblers might be hesitant to back Rams’ rookie quarterback Sam Bradford on the road. In four games outside of St. Louis, the team has put up 14, 6, 17 and 20.

Turn off the Lights

It’s uncommon to see low totals on Monday but that’s the case this week when San Francisco and Arizona meet in the desert. The books opened up with a number of 39 ½ and it’s hovering around 40 points. Two other times this season, the MNF contest had a total lower than this and it was in two games played by the Jets. The first happening in Week 1 versus Baltimore, which stayed ‘under’ and then in Week 6 versus Minnesota, which also should’ve went ‘under’ but a 40-point barrage in the second-half watched the game go ‘over.’

Breaking down this matchup, it’s hard to justify an ‘over’ wager with neither San Francisco (16 PPG) or Arizona (18.8 PPG) showing any muscle on offense. On the road, the 49ers have only managed 12.5 PPG, yet the ‘over’ has gone 2-1-1, due to a defense that has surrendered 25.3 PPG. Speaking of weak defensive units, Arizona has allowed 29.3 PPG at home and the ‘over’ has cashed in all four of its games at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Three of the last four in this series have gone ‘under’ and that includes both affairs during the regular season last year. What’s more impressive about the two contests in 2009 is that San Francisco won both games and Arizona’s offense led by QB Kurt Warner was stifled to nine and 16 points in the losses. Can Derek Anderson do better?

Fearless Predictions

Once again, we split the Best Bets last week, winning with the Seattle-New Orleans ‘over’ and losing with the Ravens-Panthers ‘under.’ On the season, we’re 6-5 (+50) in that department. Unfortunately, we didn’t hit our three-team teaser because of the late scores by the Ravens defense. On the year, we’re 3-2 (+100) with the novelty wagers. The bankroll is still in the black (+150) and we did manage to pick up $90 on the holiday card and we were close to a 3-0 sweep but the Saints and Cowboys decided to explode in the second half. While we just missed, we could’ve lost some cash if Dallas makes the late field goal. That’s gambling and hopefully we catch some bounces on Sunday to increase the bankroll (+240).

Best Over: Tennessee-Houston 45.5

Best Under: Miami-Oakland 38

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Under Miami-Oakland 47
Under Cleveland-Carolina 37.5
Over Tennessee-Houston 36.5

vegasinsider.com

Betting Preview: Green Bay at Atlanta
By: Jeff Mattingly

Green Bay is tied atop the NFC North Division with Chicago and knows how important this game is in regards to playoff positioning. “It’s a game we are looking forward to and it’s a big-time challenge,” said Packers head coach Mike McCarthy. “Atlanta is playing very well.” The Packers should come in with plenty of confidence knowing that quarterback Aaron Rodgers has won five consecutive November games and has 13 touchdowns with no interceptions in those outings. He threw for 301 yards and a career-high four touchdowns in last Sunday’s 31-3 win at Minnesota. “We’re right where we want to be,” Rodgers commented. The team is 6-4 ATS on the season.

The Packers come in riding a wave of confidence after picking up a season sweep of the Vikings for the first time since 2007 and improving the team’s record to 4-1 under McCarthy in games immediately following the bye. Sunday’s victory also improved Green Bay to 3-1 in division play this season and 20-8 in NFC North games under the current head coach. The team holds a slight advantage in the all-time series, possessing a 13-12 edge, while this contest will be the second part of a stretch where the Packers will play four road games in five weeks.

Atlanta has the NFC’s best record and owns a half-tame lead over the New Orleans Saints in the South Division. The Falcons are winners of eight of their last nine games, averaging 31.5 points during its current four-game winning streak, which is shared with the Packers as the longest current streak in the NFL. “We’ve been efficient offensively the past four or five weeks,” quarterback Matt Ryan said. “Going forward, that’s kind of a recipe for success. You become difficult to beat.” He’s been exactly that at the Georgia Dome, posting an 18-1 all-time record, including winning 14 straight starts. The team is 2-0 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less.

The last meeting between these two teams was in 2008, a 27-24 Falcons victory in Green Bay. The game’s winner has flip-flopped each time the two teams have squared off, dating back to 1995. A huge matchup in this contest will be Atlanta’s offensive line that has yielded just 15 sacks on the year against a ferocious Green Bay defense that ranks fourth in the league with 29 sacks. “Our tight ends are also involved in that protection, as well as our running backs,” said head coach Mike Smith. “That is a very cohesive unit up front.”

Bettors will likely back the Packers due to their 6-1-1 ATS mark on field turf, while the Falcons are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

Tips and Trends

Green Bay Packers at Atlanta Falcons

PACKERS: Green Bay has won their past 4 games SU, with their most dominant performance coming in their most recent game. The Packers drilled the Brett Favre led Vikings, winning 31-3 SU. Green Bay is 7-3 SU, and widely considered a threat to win the Super Bowl this year. The Packers are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this season. Green Bay has only been the listed underdog once this season, a SU road win against the Jets. QB Aaron Rodgers has been outstanding this year, throwing for more than 2,600 YDS and 19 TD's. WR Greg Jennings has more than 700 receiving YDS and 9 TD's this year for the Packers. Green Bay has surprised people with their defensive pressure this year. The Packers have a relentless pass rush that has been dominating opposing offenses all season long. Green Bay is allowing just 14.6 PPG, tied for the NFL best. The Packers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall. Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games played in November. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games played on fieldturf. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Packers are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Packers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 games against the NFC.

Packers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as a road underdog.
Under is 4-0 last 4 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - S Atari Bigby (hamstring) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 24

FALCONS: (-1, O/U 47.5) Atlanta has the best record in the NFC at 8-2 SU. The Falcons can't relax though, because they are playing in arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Atlanta is coming off a great performance, a 34-17 SU road win over the Rams. Atlanta is dominant at home yet again this year, going 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS. Today's game represents the lowest opening line that Atlanta has faced this season. QB Matt Ryan has really emerged as the leader of this Falcons offense this year. Ryan has thrown for more than 2,500 YDS, as well as 18 TD's against 5 INT's this season. Atlanta is averaging 25.6 PPG this year, 6th best in the NFL. Only 3 opponents have scored more than 21 PTS against the Falcons this year. Atlanta is allowing just 19.2 PPG this s year, 7th best in the league. The Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. Atlanta is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played on fieldturf. The Falcons are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite. Atlanta is 5-2 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played in November.

Falcons are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-1 last 5 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - DE John Abraham (groin) is questionable.

Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)