NFL Week 9 Games
Jets (5-2) @ Lions (2-5) - Gang Green allowed 9-10 points in its two losses, failing to score offensive TD in either game; they’re 5-1 as road favorite under Ryan, winning away games this year by 31-23/38-14/24-20 scores. Detroit is 6-1 vs. spread this year, covering last four; they’re 2-1 at home, losing to Eagles by 3 (trailed by 15 late), beating Rams 44-6, Redskins 37-25 (scored 17 points in last 4:32). Lions scored four TDs last week, but longest drive of the four was 52 yards; they had 13-yard edge in field position. Detroit allowed 24+ points in five of last six games. AFC East favorites are 4-3-1 vs. spread in non-divisional games, 1-0 on road; NFC North underdogs are 5-3-1, 1-0 at home. Five of last six games for both sides went over the total.
Bears (4-3) @ Bills (0-7) - Winless Buffalo played heart out on road last two weeks, losing at tail end of OT to Ravens/Chiefs, two first place teams; they’re 0-3 at home, losing by 5-24-10 points, giving up 29.7 ppg (10 TD’s/34 drives). Bills converted 22-40 on 3rd down, but were -3 in turnovers; Fitzpatrick got his NFL start in St Louis when Martz was coach, so Bears could have insight on him. Chicago lost last two games, both at home by FG each; since 1993, Bears are 2-6 vs. spread as favorite coming off a bye. Chicago is 2-1 on road, losing 17-3 at Jets (gave up 10 sacks), beating Dallas/Carolina (combined 1-13). Since start of ’08 season, Buffalo is 1-6-1 vs. spread as a home underdog. Four of last five Buffalo games went over total; four of last five Bear games stayed under.
Chargers (3-5) @ Texans (4-3) - San Diego is 3-0 in series, winning 27-20 in only visit here, in 2004; Bolts had fifth punt blocked last week, leading to early safety- they’re 0-4 on road, losing by combined total of 18 points despite being favored in all four games (Bolts have been favored in every ’10 game). Short work week for Houston team that is 2-2 at home, losing to Dallas/Giants; winning side scored 27+ points in all four games. Texans are 4-4 in game following their last eight losses to nemesis Colts- they allowed 34-31-30 points in last three games overall, and haven’t had a takeaway in four of their seven games this year. San Diego is 3-9 in last dozen games as road favorite. Five of last seven San Diego games went over the total.
Saints (5-3) @ Panthers (1-6) - New Orleans (-13.5) escaped with 16-14 win in Carolina’s visit to Superdome in Week 4; Saints had 383-251 edge in yardage, but had only one TD (three FGs) in five trips in Carolina red zone. Panthers haven’t been swept in this season series since 2001, winning three of last four series games played here. Carolina is 2-3 as underdog, 1-3 SU at home, losing by 13-13-17 points (scored 7-7-6); they scored 14 or less points in each of last five losses. Saints allowed 27-30-30 points in their three losses; they were -2/-3/-4 in turnovers in those three games. Home underdogs are 11-4-1 vs. spread in divisional games so far this season, but home teams are 0-4 vs. spread in NFC South tilts so far in 2010.
Cardinals (3-4) @ Vikings (2-5) - Larry Fitzgerald returns home with Arizona squad lacking competent QB play; they’ve turned ball over 3+ times in six of seven games this year (-9 in turnovers for year), with 14 giveaways in four road games. Arizona is 0-3 as road dog this season, losing away games by 34-31-12 points (won road opener as favorite in St Louis). Viking soap opera rambles on with Moss getting fired this week; Favre is playing hurt, and team is 2-1 at home- they’re 0-4 when scoring less than 24 points. Minnesota lost 30-17 in desert LY, their third loss in last 12 series games; Redbirds lost last five visits here, with their last win back in ’97. Last four Minnesota games all went over the total, as did four of last five Cardinal games.
Buccaneers (5-2) @ Falcons (5-2) - Unlikely battle for first in NFC South; Home side won four of last five series games, with average total in last eight meetings, 30.1. Bucs lost last two visits here, 13-10ot/20-17. Four of Tampa Bay’s five wins are by 3 or less points, and they’ve won last five road games, with defense scoring three TD’s in last two games on foreign soil. Atlanta is 4-2 in game following its last six byes, covering three of last four as post-bye favorite. Falcons are 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite) winning by 34-2-7 points, while scoring 32 ppg. Bucs have been plus in turnovers in five of seven games, even in the other two. Home favorites are 5-13 vs. spread in divisional games this season, 0-3 in NFC South games.
Dolphins (4-3) @ Ravens (5-2) - Miami is 4-0 on road (underdog in last three), 0-3 at home, which explains low spread. Fish are on road for third time in four weeks; they didn’t allow second half TD in either of last two games. Dogs covered their last six games overall. Ravens split pair of OT games before their bye; they’re 3-0 at home (2-1 as home favorite, winning home games by 7-14-3 points (1-2 as home favorite). Baltimore covered its last five games as a post-bye favorite; they beat Miami twice in ’08, including 27-9 playoff win. AFC East road underdogs are 6-1 in non-divisional games; AFC North home favorites are 1-4. All four Miami road games stayed under the total. All three Baltimore home games went over.
Patriots (6-1) @ Browns (2-5) - Belichick was 37-45 as coach of old Browns before they moved away. Patriots won two of last three visits here, winning by 12-27 points. NE won last five games (3-0-1 vs. spread in last four); they’re 2-1 on road, losing to Jets, winning by 27 at Miami, 3 at San Diego- they’re 1-4-1 vs. spread in last six games as road favorite. Cleveland split last four games after 0-3 start; they scored 17 or less points in all five losses, 23-30 in their wins. Pats’ last four foes all scored 20 or less points. Favorites are 9-0 vs. spread in Cleveland’s post-bye games; Browns are 0-5 as post-bye underdog, also losing five of last six games to Patriots, with four of five losses by 11+ points (last two were 34-17/42-15). Over is 5-2 in Patriot games, 4-1 in last five Cleveland contests.
Chiefs (5-2) @ Raiders (4-4) - Home side lost last seven games in this rivalry, with teams splitting last six, after Chiefs won previous eight; KC won last seven visits here, with six of the seven wins by 7 or less points. Chiefs are 4-1 as underdog this year, 2-1 as road dog, winning at Houston, but losing 19-9 at Indy (Colts didn’t score TD until last 5:00), 35-31 at Houston (Chiefs led by 10 in 4th quarter). KC hasn’t turned ball over in last three games (+4). Oakland is 3-1 at home, 1-1 as home favorite, allowing 18.8 ppg at home- they had 328-239 rushing yards in last two games, as Bush/McFadden rushing tandem proving to be very productive. Oakland allowed only four TD’s on foes’ last 48 drives. Average total in last eight series games is 28.9; average in last four played here, 27.5.
Giants (5-2) @ Seahawks (4-3) - Home side won last nine series games; Giants lost last four visits here, by 5-2-3-12 points- their last win in Seattle was in 1981, but Big Blue was on roll before bye, winning last four games, scoring 34.3 ppg in last three (13 TD’s on 38 drives). Jersey ran ball for 163.3 ypg in last four games, but they’ve also turned ball over 3+ times in five of seven game- they’re 4-0 with even/positive turnover ratio, with all four wins by 8+ points . Seattle is 3-0 at home, allowing just 8.7 ppg in wins over 49ers-Chargers-Cardinals (combined record, 8-14). NFC West home underdogs are 5-0 vs. spread in non-divisional games. NFC East favorites are 4-7, 1-2 on foreign soil. Three of last four Seattle games stayed under the total.
Colts (5-2) @ Eagles (4-3) - Banged-up Indy travelling on short work week after tough divisional win, so letdown here likely, even on national TV, vs. Philly squad coming off bye. Eagles scored 27+ points in all four wins, 20-12-19 in losses; curious to see if Kolb/Vick gets start under center. Colts won last four series games, all by 22+ points; they won four of last five visits here, with last two by 44-17/35-13 margins, but last visit here was in ’02. Indy is 2-2 on road, losing by 10 at Houston, 3 at Jacksonville (allowed 34-31 points in losses); they’re 5-0 when allowing less than 31 points. This is first time Colts have been underdog in 2010; since 2006, they’re 7-3 as single digit dog- since ’01, they’re 6-0-1 vs. spread when an underdog of 3 or less points.
Cowboys (1-6) @ Packers (5-3) - Dallas is a disaster, losing last four games while allowing 34.5 ppg (16 TD’s on 46 drives); having 38-year old backup Kitna under center ain’t helping any. Green Bay has much-needed bye after this game; before last week’s 9-0 win in Swamp, their previous five games had been decided by 4 or less points. Pack is 2-2 as home fave this year (14-11-1 since ’06)- their only win this year by more than 7 points was 34-7 in Week 2 over winless Bills. Home side won 12 of last 13 games in this series, with Dallas 1-6 at Lambeau Field (only win in ’08—they were also 3-2 in five games in Milwaukee). Six of eight Packer games stayed under total, but last four Dallas games went over.
Steelers (5-2) @ Bengals (2-5) - Monday night home dogs a traditional money-maker, and home dogs in divisional games are 11-4-1 this year. Nasty bit of scheduling has Steelers playing third straight week on road, historical soft spot in NFL, especially with last two in primetime. Pitt’s 23-20 loss here LY was their first in last nine visits, as Bengals swept season series. Steelers scored 14-10 points in their two losses- they allowed 22-20 points in last two games, after giving up just 12 ppg in first five games of year. Cincy lost last four games, allowing 27 ppg; they gave up 10-7 points in their two wins, 22+ in their five losses. No one has run ball for more than 75 yards against Steelers this year. Three of last four Bengal games went over the total.
NFL Tech Trends - Week 9
By Bruce Marshall
CHICAGO vs. BUFFALO (at Toronto)... Bills have lost and failed to cover their Toronto game the past two years. Counting those losses at Rogers Centre, Bills 3-12 vs. line last 15 as host. Buffalo also "over" 4-1 last 5 TY. Lovie 2-1 SU and vs. line away TY. Tech edge-Bears, based on recent trends.
SAN DIEGO at HOUSTON... Norv 0-4 SU and vs. line away TY. Kubiak, however, no covers last 3 at home TY, and just 3-8 vs. line last 11 as host. Norv "over" 19-10 last 29 on board. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on Norv "totals" trends.
NEW ORLEANS at CAROLINA… Saints failed to cover last 4 and 6 of last 7 in series. Panthers "under’ 20-8 at Charlotte since ‘07, and "unders" 5-1 last 6 and 9-2 last 11 in series. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.
ARIZONA at MINNESOTA... Cards no wins or covers last 3 away TY, losses by 34, 31, and 12 points. Cards now 1-6 vs. line last 7 on road. Vikes 8-3 as home chalk since LY and 4-0 as DD chalk that span. Tech edge-Vikings, based on team trends.
TAMPA BAY at ATLANTA... Note "unders" last four and six of last eight in series. Bucs have also covered last 3 at Georgia Dome and 5 of last 6 in series. But Falcs have covered 8 of last 11 at home. Bucs 8-3 vs. line since LY on road for Raheem Morris. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Bucs, based on series trends.
NY JETS at DETROIT... Lions 6-1 vs. line TY. Lions "over" 5-2 TY. Jets "over" 9-3 last 12 since late LY. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
MIAMI at BALTIMORE... Sparano 15-4 vs. line last 19 on road. Sparano also "under" 10-3 last 13 away. Interestingly, Ravens "over" first 3 as host TY. Tech edge-Dolphins and "under," based on Sparano road and "totals" marks.
NEW ENGLAND at CLEVELAND... Browns 10-3-1 last 14 on board (3-3-1 TY) and Mangini 8-2-1 last 11 as dog. Tech edge-Browns, based on team trends.
NY GIANTS at SEATTLE... Pete Carroll 3-0 SU and vs. line at Qwest Field TY, now 10-3 last 13 vs. line as host. Giants "over’ 15-7 since LY and "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Tech edge-Seahawks and "over," based on Giants "totals" trends.
KANSAS CITY at OAKLAND... Chiefs have won and covered last 7 and 8 of last 9 at Oakland. Part of overall road trend in series (8-0 last 8, 13-0-1 last 14 since 2002!). Last 4 and 9 of last 10 "under" in series. Tech edge-Chiefs and "under," based on series trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at PHILADELPHIA... If dog, note Andy Reid just 2-6 in role since LY. He’s 1-3 as rare home dog since ‘07. Birds also "over" 11-4 last 15 at home (though "under" 1-2 TY). Colts "over" 6-1 last 7 as visitor. Tech edge-"Over" and Colts, based on "totals" and team trends.
DALLAS at GREEN BAY... Dallas 1-7 last 8 on board since late LY, if dog note Wade Phillips 4-7 in role since ‘07. Dallas "under" 10-5 last 15 away. Tech edge-slight to Pack and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (Monday, November 8)... Bengals won and covered both meetings LY after Steelers had won and covered previous five. Steelers were also 7-0-1 vs. line previous 8 at Paul Brown Stadium. Marvin Lewis just 4-8 vs. line at home since LY and "under" 10-4 last 14 as host. Tech edge-Steelers and "under," based on extended series and "totals" trends.
Total Trends to Watch
By Bruce Marshall
When the NFL season approaches its midway point, we always like to review team "totals" trends. By this point in the season, we usually have an idea if trends from past have endured into the current campaign, while allowing current-year patterns to develop. Some teams have more illuminating trends than others, but almost every team has a "totals" angle or two worth review. Following is a team-by-team rundown of "totals" trends to watch.
Arizona... Cards have mostly been an "over" team since 2004 (66-42 "over" that span). The current Cards, even minus QB Kurt Warner, are trending "over" again (5-2 TY), and the Big Red especially have been shaded to the "over" when home at U of P Stadium (27-12 last 39).
Atlanta... On the fast and dry track of the Georgia Dome, Falcons have mostly been an "over" team at home the past several seasons, with the notable exception of 2009, when Atlanta went "under" 2-6 as host (and also closed the season with six straight "unders" overall). Falcs "over" 2-1 in early going this season at home, and excluding ‘09, they’re "over" 23-12 their last 35 as host.
Baltimore... Ravens haven’t been the sort of "under" play their reputation suggests, especially this season at home where they’re "over" 3-0 thus far. They are 2-1 "under" away this season and now 9-5 "under" their last 14 on road, although since HC John Harbaugh arrived in ‘08, they’re evenly split 12-12 between "overs" and "unders" away.
Buffalo... Bills had been flashing some "over" tendencies after recent switch at QB to Ryan Fitzpatrick, going "over" four straight prior to last week’s "under" vs. Chiefs.
Carolina... Pronounced "under" trends have continued in Charlotte (3-1 "under" TY at home, 32-15 last 47 as host since late 2004). Panthers also "under" 16-8 last 24 overall.
Chicago... Interestingly, since QB Jay Cutler arrived LY, Bears have been mostly "under" (15-8 that span, 14-8 in games Cutler starts).
Cincinnati... Bengals continue to trend "under" at home, now 2-1 this season and 21-9 last 30 at Paul Brown Stadium since late ‘06.
Cleveland... Browns have had 12 of their last 15 "totals" posted at less than 40, which partly explains mild "over" results lately (8-6 last 14, including last four on road). Note Cleveland was "under" 14 of the last 21 in Romeo Crennel’s regime that ended after 2008.
Dallas...Cowboys have been a back-and-forth "totals" team under HC Wade Phillips; their latest trend is "over" last 4 overall and last 5 at home.
Denver... Despite barely missing the "over" last week in London vs. the 49ers, Broncos are "over" 12 of their last 14 since late last season, and "over" last 7 as visitor.
Detroit... The now-lively Lions are "over" 8 of their last 11 since late ‘09 and "over" their last five at Ford Field.
Green Bay... Note the recent departure from Pack’s "over" form, which was 32-19 from 2007-09; in 2010, Green Bay is "under" 6-2 TY after last week’s yawner vs. the Jets.
Houston... Although Texans were "under" 10-6 LY, they’ve mostly been "over" the past few years ("over" 36-24 in the 60 games prior to ‘09, and "over" 4-2 TY prior to facing Colts last Monday).
Indianapolis... Nothing too consistent lately save "overs" in 6 of last 7 as visitor.
Jacksonville... Jags trending "over" lately (7-2 last 9 since late ‘09).
Kansas City... Mostly "over" at Arrowhead (18-9 last 27, though only 2-2 this season).
Miami... Dolphins has kept form lately, continuing recent "over" trends at home (now 10-1 last 11) and "under" on road (13-4 last 17).
Minnesota... With Viking "totals" usually posted in the mid 40s, no surprise that Minnesota is "under" 7-2 its last 9 at home.
New England... Bill Belichick entered 2010 exactly split between "overs" and "unders" since 2005 (44-44). Recent highlighted trend has been 8-3 "under" last 11 away.
New Orleans... With "totals" usually in mid-to-high 40s, Saints not "over" as much as most would imagine lately (they’re "under" 14-12 since last season). Also "under" 6 of last 7 vs. this week’s foe Carolina.
New York Giants... One of the most-pronounced "over" trenders lately, G-Men "over" 15-7 since 2009. Note "overs" last 7 vs. NFC East foes.
New York Jets... Recent string of five straight "overs" ended in last week’s defensive battle vs. Pack, but Rex Ryan’s Jets still "over" 9 of last 12 since late LY.
Oakland... Note "unders" in 9 of last 10 vs. Chiefs, who visit the Coliseum this week.
Philadelphia... Birds mostly trending "over" lately (15-9 last 24), and "over" 11 -4 last 15 at the Linc.
Pittsburgh... Steelers have trended "over" at Heinz Field for much of this decade ("over" 51-28 last 79 since early in the ‘01 season), although that hasn’t been as pronounced since HC Mike Tomlin arrived in ‘07 (just 16-14 since). Steelers also "over" 9-4 last 13 away.
St. Louis... The "Sam Bradford Rams" are "under" 6-2 TY, with St. Louis now "under" 9 of its last 11 since late ‘09.
San Diego... "Over" 19-10 last 29 since late ‘08, including "over" 10-4 last 14 at Qualcomm Stadium.
San Francisco... Niners entered 2010 "under" 15-6-1 their last 22 for HC Mike Singletary, although they’re "over" 4-3 TY.
Seattle... Seahawks definitely trending "under" lately at Qwest Field (12-4-1 last 17 as host), though just 1-1-1 "under" at home in early days of new HC Pete Carroll’s regime.
Tampa Bay... Mostly "under" (14-9) since HC Raheem Morris arrived LY, more so at home ("under" 8-4 since ‘09).
Tennessee... Definite "over" trends lately at LP Field (3-1 TY, 13-5-1 last 19). Note 9-1 "under" last 10 vs. Indy, on deck December 9 and January 2.
Washington... Extended "under" trend at FedEx Field (18-10 since ‘07), though they’ve split four between "over" and "under" at home for new HC Mike Shanahan.
Week 9 Road Chalk
By Kevin Rogers
The favorites fared well last week in the NFL, covering nine of 13 games in Week 8. With nearly half of the regular season over, the teams that are making it known that they are playoff teams are separating themselves from clubs that won't be qualifying for the postseason. This Sunday, there are five road favorites in the early kickoffs that seem like huge public plays. We'll take a look at these contests, starting with two old friends getting together for a reunion of sorts in northern Ohio.
Patriots (-4½, 44) at Browns
The AFC needs to look out because those pesky New England Patriots own the best record in the NFL at 6-1. The Pats are coming off a victory in the Randy Moss bowl over the Vikings last Sunday, 28-18, covering as six-point favorites. New England takes its act to Cleveland to battle a Browns' team that is primed for another upset.
Former Bill Belichick assistant Eric Mangini faces the Patriots for the first time since winning in Foxboro, 34-31 as head coach of the Jets in 2008. Mangini has kept the Browns afloat this season despite a 2-5 record, but Cleveland is feeling good about themselves after a shocking 30-17 victory as 12-point road underdogs at New Orleans two weeks ago. The Browns have been outgained in each of their last six games, while Cleveland is down to its third starting quarterback with rookie Colt McCoy under center.
The Patriots are on fire since a second-half meltdown to the Jets in Week 2, running off five consecutive wins. New England is 2-2-1 ATS as a favorite, as its last two road victories came as underdogs at San Diego and Miami. The Patriots are lacking big-play threats offensively, but the three-time champions are averaging 29 ppg, while going 'over' the total in five of seven games this season.
Jets (-4, 41½) at Lions
Detroit is slowly getting things together following an 0-4 start by winning two of its last three games. The Lions look to pull a nice upset this week as the 5-2 Jets invade Ford Field for the first time since 2002. New York tries to rebound after becoming the first team to get shut out in the NFL this season following an ugly 9-0 home defeat to Green Bay.
The Jets have allowed 19 points in losses to the Ravens and Packers, but the offense dried up with just nine combined points. New York has hit the 'over' in all five victories, while the 'under' has cashed in both defeats. The Jets are 5-2 ATS this season, including road favorite victories at Buffalo and Denver.
The Lions are the best ATS team in the league through the first two months by covering six of seven games. Detroit is 3-0 ATS at home, while coming off high-scoring efforts in wins over Washington and St. Louis (40.5 ppg). The 'over' has been a great play for Jim Schwartz's Lions recently, hitting in four straight games, while the defense has allowed 25 points or more three times in this span.
Bears (-3, 40½) vs. Bills
Buffalo is going to try to get a victory outside the United States as the Bills play their annual contest in Toronto against the rested Bears. Chicago begins Week 9 just one-half game behind Green Bay in the NFC North with a 4-3 mark, but the Bears are coming off consecutive home losses to the Seahawks and Redskins.
The Bills are a dreadful 0-7, but it's not for a lack of effort. Buffalo has fallen on the road in overtime each of the last two weeks at Baltimore and Kansas City, as the Bills managed a cover as underdogs each time. Chan Gailey's team is close to getting in the win column, but the defense needs to duplicate the effort against the Chiefs when Buffalo allowed a season-low 13 points. Prior to the Kansas City loss, the Bills gave up at least 34 points in each of their previous four games, all 'overs.'
The Bears began the season at 3-0, but a 1-3 run by Lovie Smith's squad has pushed this team back into the middle of the pack in the NFC. Chicago has failed to cover all three opportunities as a favorite, as the Bears are favored on the road for the first time since a 37-23 win as four-point 'chalk' at Detroit in the final week of last season. Thanks to the inconsistency of Jay Cutler and the Bears' offense, the Bears are 5-2 to the 'under,' while holding opponents to 17 points or less five times.
Saints (-6½, 41) at Panthers
The reigning Super Bowl champs have been as up-and-down as any team in the NFL this season, coming off a 20-10 home victory over the Steelers last Sunday night. Is this the week that New Orleans stubs their toe at 1-6 Carolina? The Saints have lost to the Browns and Cardinals this season of at least touchdown favorites, while going 3-5 ATS.
New Orleans needed a late field goal to stave off Carolina, 16-14 at the Superdome in Week 4 as the Panthers cashed as 12 ½-point underdogs. The Panthers have managed to cover in seven of the last eight meetings with the Saints, while Carolina is 2-0 the last two home matchups with New Orleans. Five of Carolina's last six games have finished 'under' the total, as the Panthers have scored 14 points or less five times this season.
The Saints have alternated wins and losses in each of the last seven games, but has outgained each of their opponents in the previous five contests. The defense has allowed 14 points or less four times, but has given up 27 points or more in all three losses. The 'under' is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Charlotte, while the Saints have 18 or less three times in this span.
Chargers (-3, 50) at Texans
San Diego's victory over Tennessee last week may be the spark this Chargers' team needs to get back into the AFC West race. That statement seemed ridiculous in the offseason, but the Chiefs and Raiders are pushing the Chargers for the division title, while San Diego has lost to each of its rivals already on the road. The Bolts head down to Texas to battle a Houston team that looks to rebound off a Monday night setback at Indianapolis.
Philip Rivers is torching defenses this season by throwing for a league-best 2649 yards, but San Diego has lost all four games as a road favorite this season at Kansas City, Seattle, Oakland, and St. Louis. The Bolts are making only their second visit to Reliant Stadium, as San Diego beat Houston, 27-20 in the season opener of the 2004 season.
The Texans have been a tough team to figure out this season, as Houston has alternated wins and losses in each of its last six games. Gary Kubiak's team is listed as an underdog for only the third time this season, coming off a home-and-home split against Indianapolis. The Texans' defense will be tested against this powerful San Diego offense, as Houston has allowed at least 24 points in each game this season.
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NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 9
New York Jets at Detroit Lions (+4)
Why Jets cover: LaDainian Tomlinson and the Jets third-ranked rushing attack should have no problem carving up a Lions defense that is allowing 130.4 yards per game on the ground.
Why Lions cover: Matthew Stafford was impressive in his first game back from injury. Mark Sanchez is struggling and coming off a game in which the Jets failed to register a point.
Total (41.5): The over is 4-0 in the Jets' last four road games and 5-0 in the Lions' last five home games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-9)
Why Buccaneers cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games in Atlanta. The road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Falcons cover: They could get starting cornerback Dunta Robinson back from the concussion he suffered in Week 6. Matt Ryan has won his last 12 starts at home.
Total (45.5): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens (-5.5)
Why Dolphins cover: The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and so is the road team. The Ravens have allowed an average of 318.7 yards through the air in their past three games.
Why Ravens cover: They’re 7-1 straight up after their bye since 2002. Last week's bye allowed their banged up receivers to heal, including Donte' Stallworth who will make his season debut after missing eight weeks with a broken foot.
Total (40.5): The over is 5-1 in the Ravens' last six home games.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns (+5.5)
Why Patriots cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Two-time Pro Bowl guard Logan Mankins has returned from his holdout, and could help open holes for the Patriots' rushing attack.
Why Browns cover: New England's inexperienced defense is ranked 28th in the NFL and could wear down against Peyton Hillis' punishing style of running.
Total (44.5): The over is 4-1 in the Browns' last five games and 7-2 in the Patriots' last nine.
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-9)
Why Cardinals cover: The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. With Randy Moss gone, Percy Harvin questionable with an ankle injury and Sidney Rice not ready to return, it looks like Bernard Berrian and Greg Camarillo will be Brett Favre's starting wide receivers on Sunday. Ouch.
Why Vikings cover: Derek Anderson, who has thrown seven interceptions and only four touchdowns while compiling a meager 62.8 quarterback rating, will get the start for Arizona.
Total (41): The over is 4-0 in the Vikings' last four games and 5-1 in the Cardinals' last six games.
Chicago Bears at Buffalo Bills (+2.5)
Why Bears cover: Buffalo has been unable to stop anyone on the ground this season and have allowed four of their last five opponents to reach the 200-yard mark, including 274 to Kansas City last week.
Why Bills cover: The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Until Mike Martz decides to incorporate the run into his offensive scheme, teams will continue to blitz Jay Cutler or sit back in coverage and pick him off.
Total (41): Both teams rank near the bottom of the league in points per game.
San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans (+3)
Why Chargers cover: Philip Rivers leads the NFL with 2,649 passing yards and Houston ranks last in the league against the pass, allowing almost 300 yards per game.
Why Texans cover: San Diego is 0-4 straight up and ATS on the road this season and averages 13.5 points per game less away from home.
Total (50.5): This could turn into a shootout with both teams capable of putting up points in a hurry.
New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (+6.5)
Why Saints cover: Matt Moore has thrown 10 interceptions in five games and Carolina ranks last in the league in total offense at 271.0 yards and 12.1 points per game.
Why Panthers cover: The Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against Carolina.
Total (41): The under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings and 7-0 in the last seven games in Carolina.
New York Giants at Seattle Seahawks (+5.5)
Why Giants cover: They have knocked five quarterbacks out of games this season and Matt Hasselbeck, who was sacked eight times last week, is already battling a concussion. If he can't go, Charlie Whitehurst could make his first NFL start. Either way, it should be a long day for whoever takes the snaps for Seattle.
Why Seahawks cover: Eli Manning leads the league with 11 interceptions and the Giants are third in the NFL with 19 giveaways.
Total (41): The over is 4-1 in the Giants' last five road games.
Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)
Why Colts cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Why Eagles cover: Joseph Addai is out and both Donald Brown (hamstring) and Mike Hart (ankle) are suffering from injuries that will hamper their running ability if they can play. Deep threat DeSean Jackson has passed his concussion tests and could suit up on Sunday along with Michael Vick and Jason Peters.
Total (47): The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at Oakland Raiders (-2.5)
Why Chiefs cover: They're 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings in Oakland. The road team is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 meetings. The underdog is 6-0 ATS in their last six meetings. Oakland is likely to be without leading receiver Zach Miller (foot) and cover corner Nnamdi Asomugha (ankle).
Why Raiders cover: Oakland has gone 4-0 ATS and is averaging 34 points per game since Jason Campbell took over for the injured Bruce Gradkowski in Week 5.
Total (41): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 5-0 in the last five games in Oakland.
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers (-9)
Why Cowboys cover: Jon Kitna had a big game last week (along with some bad luck) and is a capable replacement for Tony Romo. Green Bay is still bitten by the injury bug on both sides of the ball.
Why Packers cover: The home team is 8-1 ATS in their last nine meetings and the favorite is 7-2 ATS over the same stretch.
Total (44): The under is 5-1 in the Cowboys' last six road games and 6-2 in the Packers' last eight games overall.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Reds (+4.5)
Why Steelers cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine meetings in Cincinnati. The road team is 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.
Why Bengals cover: Their secondary will get a big boost from the return of defensive backs Roy Williams and Johnathan Joseph.
Total (41.5): The under is 5-2 in the Steelers' last seven Monday Night Football games and 6-2 in the Bengals' last eight home games.
Vegas Money Moves - Week 9
By Micah Roberts
One of the larger line movements of the week in the NFL was the New York Giants moving from an opener of 5 ½-points to -7 at Seattle on the basis of Matt Hasselbeck being out with a head injury. Moving into the starting assignment will be Charlie Whitehurst, you know good old Charlie, the one that has never thrown an NFL pass in the regular season. The Charlie who held the clip board for the Chargers for the last four years sporting a mullet with a Chargers baseball cap on.
Matt Hasselbeck isn’t the greatest quarterback in the league, but he’s been pretty good in home games this season. The difference of only 1 ½ points between Hasselbeck and Whitehurst seems a quite low, especially when the untested quarterback has to face the Giants front four which has knocked out five quarterbacks this season. A few sports books I talked to said the number was already built in for an injured Hasselbeck and the move came from some bets and an air adjustment on confirmation that Hasselbeck was indeed out.
To be fair to Whitehurst, since he is such an unknown, he did look pretty good in the Seahawks final pre-season game. He started at Oakland and threw for 210 yards and a touchdown in a 27-24 loss. But that is pre-season, a completely different realm we’re talking about now. He’s had all week to practice with the first string and knows the playbook well, but he’s also had all week to watch lots of film and see what the Giants lineman can do all by themselves, without blitzes. It probably doesn't make him rest any easier watching the film of five quarterbacks knocked out either.
It looks to me like there is some value with the Giants here laying a touchdown.
The Chargers (3-5) were one of the Sharp plays last week at home against a good Titans squad and they are on them again this week. San Diego goes back on the road, where despite losing all four of their road games this season they were installed as a 1-point favorite at Houston. On Tuesday and Wednesday, Chargers money started coming in and pushed the number to -2 ½ and -3 (+105). The Texans (4-3) missed an opportunity last week at Indianapolis and have been a hard team to figure out, but it's hard to find the logic in the Chargers move other than the fact that the Chargers always go a run at this point of the year after struggling early. The Texans don’t have any injuries to speak of, other than WR Andre Johnson being moved from questionable to probable.
The Patriots opened 5 ½-point favorites at Cleveland and has been against to 4 ½. The Browns are coming off a bye following their huge win at New Orleans while the Patriots have the best record in football. The Sharps were the first to hit this one as well.
The Saints, meanwhile, come off a big win in the Superdome against the Steelers, a win the team really needed to prove to themselves they are still a very good football team after losing to the Browns. They opened 7-point favorites at Carolina and have been bet against dropping the line -6 ½. To show how drastically the rating and perception of the Saints have changed, The Saints were -13 at home against the Panthers in week 4, a game the Saints barely won 16-14. Many bettors who play the favorites keep waiting for the Saints team from last year to reappear. They thought they were back after scoring 31 points at Tampa Bay in week 6, but that remains their highest output of the season. The last two weeks, the Saints have scored only 17 and 20 points and are 3-5 against the spread this season. It’s tough taking a very bad team with the Panthers, but the Saints have been prone to playing to their opponents’ level all season.
The Colts, fresh off their Monday night, win get no love in Philly this week as the Eagles opened up a 1-point favorite and have been bet up to -3 (EV). Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson are both going to play which makes them come in fully loaded, but I still can’t get over what Kerry Collins and Kenny Britt did to the Eagles defense two weeks ago. Britt went for 225 yards and three touchdowns in a track meet against the Eagles secondary. What’s Peyton Manning going to do to them? He gets Austin Collie back this week and has another weapon in Anthony Gonzalez back with one game under his belt. Can Michael Vick just turn it on again after being out so long?
Derek Anderson was named the starting quarterback for Arizona in their game at Minnesota this week. The Vikings opened as a 9-point favorite and are currently sitting at -7 ½, but the moves came from bets and not just occurances from the past week forcing adjustments. Randy Moss is gone and Anderson was named the starter Monday. The combination of the two may have been what the Sharps were looking at when they forced the move taking +9, +8 1/2 & +8. That, and also that the Viking just aren't good to be laying a touchdown or more to anyone.
The Dolphins are 4-0 on the road and travel to Baltimore where the Ravens were installed a 6-point favorite. Dolphins money has come in dropping the line a half-point to -5 ½.
The Steelers got a little action for their Monday night game at the train wreck in Cincinnati opening as a 5 ½-point favorite and moving to -6. We know the Bengals have talent, but they might be the worst coached team in football outside of the Cowboys. Because the game is in prime time and the spotlight is on Cincinnati, we might actually see players like Chad Ochocinco and Terrell Owens step up big because limelight seems to be the only thing that gets those two going.
One of the games that has been virtually untouched looks to be one of the better matchups of the week based on their records. The Buccaneers (5-2) visit the Falcons (5-2) for the right to take control of their division. The Falcons opened as 9-point favorites and it hasn‘t moved. The Falcons have kind of gone under the radar but have been one of the more consistent teams in the league, only losing at Philadelphia and Pittsburgh.
Not to take anything away from what Tampa Bay has done, because it has been an amazing run, but their record has come at the expense of the Browns, Panthers, Bengals, Rams and Cardinals and they were all very close games. The two teams they played that are good teams wiped them out convincingly, Pittsburgh 38-13 and New Orleans 31-6. On the season, they have allowed 27 more points scored on them than they have scored themselves. Yes, they are 5-2, but it looks like another beat down coming.
Had this been last year, the small money would have already helped propel this game to double-digits based on their performances this year. A few books have told me that they actually have more tickets wagered on the Buccaneers than the Falcons, which is insane and shows the current state the small bettors are in .So what looks to be an easy win by a favorite is now treated with apprehension and caution. The underdogs are rolling this year and it’s playing with bettors minds. This was the first game on the board I liked and I didn’t care what the spread was. I feel pretty comfortable about seeing a 17-point route.
NFL Betting Preview: San Diego Chargers at Houston Texans
By: Jeff Mattingly
San Diego has been one of the best second-half of the season teams in the NFL over the past four seasons and will put that to the test on Sunday afternoon in Houston. Chargers head coach Norv Turner is on the hot seat each week with a fan base with high expectations, but he definitely has a huge fan in the front office. "The man is an outstanding head coach," said general manager A.J. Smith. The team set a franchise record by going 7-1 on the road last season, but would be 0-5 with a loss for the first time since their 1-15 season in 2000. San Diego will look to win back-to-back games for the first time this season and head into a bye week just a game under .500. The squad is 16-3 ATS versus AFC South opponents.
The Chargers coaching staff knows they are facing a dangerous opponent on Sunday and the defense will need to lead the team to victory. "You put on their tapes and it looks like a highlight film," said Turner. "They run the ball, they've got great play-action, their receivers are playing at a real high level." Offensively, quarterback Philip Rivers is leading the NFL with 2,649 passing yards and is on pace to break Dan Marino's single-season record of 5,084. He's likely to enjoy another big day going against a defense that is last against the pass, giving up 299.4. yards a game. One of his favorite targets, tight end Antonio Gates is slowed by three different injuries and could be out this afternoon.
Houston has captured three consecutive home games against AFC opponents and will need to utilize star wide receiver Andre Johnson to prove victorious versus the Chargers. The former Miami Hurricanes star leads the NFL with 3,738 receiving yards since 2008. He knows his team can ill-afford a bad start like they suffered in their Monday Night loss to Indianapolis. "The first half we didn't play the type of football we normally play," he commented. "We never really got into a rhythm in the first half because I think everybody was taking turns making mistakes." Houston had scored 30 or more points in four of its first six games, but rank 31st in the NFL in points scored in the first half with 50 compared to a league-leading 120 in the second. The team is 18-19 ATS over the last three years.
The Texans have never beaten the Chargers in franchise history, dropping all three games, including a 27-20 loss at Reliant Stadium in 2004. Houston has the 32nd-ranked defense and tied with Philadelphia for the worst red-zone defense. If defensive end Mario Willams and the rest of the defensive front are unable to get pressure on Rivers, it's likely going to be a long day for the home team.
Bettors may elect to back the Chargers due to their 5-1 ATS mark as a road favorite of 0.5 to 3 points, while the Texans are 8-2 ATS as a home underdog.
SNF - Dallas at Green Bay
By Chris David
Sunday Night Football visits Lambeau Field for the second time in the last three weeks, as Green Bay (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) and Dallas (1-6 SU, 1-6 ATS) battle in the primetime slot. The Packers and Cowboys both entered the 2010 season as serious contenders to claim the NFC and Super Bowl XLV but after eight weeks of action, we have two clubs going in opposite directions.
Let’s start with the good, Green Bay. After losing two straight overtime games to the Redskins (13-16) on the road and the Dolphins (20-23) at home, Mike McCarthy’s team answered the bell not once but twice. The Packers knocked off Minnesota 28-24 two weeks ago at home and followed that up with an even more impressive victory against the Jets last Sunday.
Green Bay blanked New York 9-0 for its first road shutout in close to 20 years. The win wasn’t pretty by any means and the credit goes to kicker Mason Crosby, who accounted for all the scoring, and the defense. The unit did give up 360 yards but they forced three turnovers and made key stops at the right time.
Even though quarterback Aaron Rodgers (44%, 170 yards) had his worst performance of the season, things could change this weekend when Dallas visits.
The Cowboys suffered their fourth straight loss last Sunday after they were embarrassed at home to Jacksonville, 35-17. Dallas made Jaguars QB David Garrard (5 total TDs) look like the best player in the league in the loss.
Surprisingly, Dallas outgained Jacksonville (415-387) in the loss but like most outcomes in football, the game was decided by turnovers. Jon Kitna was 34-of-49 for 379 yards but he was picked off four times and three of them could’ve been catches.
Head coach Wade Phillips summed it up best by this team’s performance. “I’m distraught, to say the least,” Phillips said. “I’ve got talented players and I’m not getting them to play well enough. To me, that’s the root of the problem.”
As a gambler, do you believe Phillips? Or is Dallas done and they’re actually not that good? Even though the Cowboys have no shot at the playoffs, these are pros and most would believe that they’ll show up just for the pride factor I mean we’ve seen the winless 0-7 Bills come close to winning the past two weeks, right?
And if you toss out last week’s 18-point embarrassment, all of the other five losses were by seven or less. Sure, Tony Romo (collar bone) was at quarterback but is there that much of a drop off to Kitna? Former Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White believes there is a huge difference with the veteran behind center for Dallas and he made a major adjustment in his weekly NFL Rankings.
Some books had Green Bay listed as high as a nine-point favorite in the middle of the week but the number is hovering around 7 as of Sunday morning. The Packers have gone 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this season and the only double-digit victory (34-7) came in Week 2 against the aforementioned Buffalo squad.
Is Green Bay that good to cover this spot at home, especially off two emotional and sort of surprising wins? Certainly seems like a fair question and if you look inside the numbers, VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence will tell you that the wrong team is favored.
Lawrence explained, “It’s not often you’ll find teams in this league that own both the better offense and the better defense at this stage of the season taking more than a touchdown. Confounding the matters at hand, a quick scan of the three common opponents faced by both teams finds the Cowboys owning 75 yards per game in the stats. Even more perplexing is an examination of Green Bay’s current condition as they’ve been outgained in four of its previous five games. Granted, Dallas is as dysfunctional as any team in the league but the stats don’t lie and they are stacked heavily in the Cowboys favor tonight.”
Total players could be scratching their head on this matchup since the Packers have watched the ‘under’ go 6-2, yet the ‘over’ has produced a 5-2 ledger for the Cowboys. The number is hovering around 45 ½ points and the difference could come down to sixes instead of threes, which usually is in most totals.
Dallas has won two of the last three head-to-head meetings, but Green Bay did capture a 17-7 decision last year at home. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 during this stretch.
Besides Romo being ‘out’ for Dallas, neither team has any significant injuries. The weather reports have temperatures listed in the mid-forties with little wind or precipitation expected.
Kickoff is slated for 8:20 p.m. EST, with NBC providing national coverage.
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
Miami Dolphins at Baltimore Ravens
DOLPHINS: Miami is 4-3 SU this season, yet it's the way they've gone about acquiring that record that is so unique. The Dolphins have won every road game they've played this season, while losing each home contest this year. In fact, Miami is the 5th team in NFL history to start the season 0-3 SU at home and 4-0 SU on the road this year. Miami is 5-2 ATS this season, including 4-0 ATS on the road. The Dolphins are only averaging 19 PPG, near the bottom in scoring this season. Surprisingly, Miami is only 16th in the NFL in rushing at 111 YPG this year. RB's Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown have combined for only 700 YDS rushing and 2 TD's this season. Defensively, the Dolphins are starting to play better compared with how poorly they started the season. Miami has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 2 seasons to the Ravens by double figures. The Dolphins have outgained 4 of their past 5 opponents in total yards. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog between 3.5 and 10 points. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. Miami is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Dolphins are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games. Miami is 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Dolphins are 13-3 ATS last 16 games as a road underdog.
Under is 5-0 last 5 games on fieldturf.
Key Injuries - LB Channing Crowder (thumb) is questionable.
Projected Score: 14
RAVENS: (-5.5, O/U 40.5) Baltimore is right in the thick of things in the AFC, as they are a solid 5-2 SU, with both losses coming by a combined 8 PTS. The Ravens are coming off their bye week, which has proven to be successful over the years. Baltimore is 7-1 SU in the game following their bye week since 2002. Under Coach Harbaugh, the Ravens are 2-0 after the bye week, winning by an average of 20 PPG in those specific contests. Baltimore is 3-0 SU at home this year, but only 1-2 ATS. Baltimore is averaging 21.3 PPG this season, and the Ravens appear ready to improve on that number. QB Joe Flacco has thrown for 5 TD's in his past 2 games, and has a QB Rating more than 110 in each of those games. Defensively, the Ravens are 7th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing 18.4 PPG. This proud defense is showing signs of age, as they've given up a combined 57 PTS in the past 2 games combined. The Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Baltimore is 43-19-1 ATS in their last 63 games as a home favorite. The Ravens are 11-3-2 ATS in their last 16 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Ravens are 7-2 ATS last 9 games following a bye week.
Under is 6-0 last 6 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - WR Derrick Mason (finger) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)
Dallas Cowboys at Green Bay Packers
COWBOYS: Who in their right mind would have ever thought that in Week 9 of the season that Dallas would only have 1 SU win? Dallas is 1-6 both SU and ATS this season, easily the most disappointing team in the NFL. The most puzzling factor of the Cowboys 1-6 SU record is the fact that they have gained more total yards than each of their opponent but 1 this year. QB Jon Kitna is actually doing a fine job of filling in for injured star QB Tony Romo. The rushing attack of the Cowboys is to be blamed this year, because it's been nearly nonexistent. Dallas is averaging 80.9 rushing YPG this year, 2nd worst in the NFL. Defensively, the Cowboys have really fallen off the map, as it appears they aren't even putting forth the effort necessary to win in the NFL. The Cowboys are allowing 26.7 PPG this season, 6th worst in football. Dallas lost last year to the Packers 7-17 SU, so they would like nothing more than to derail the Super Bowl hopes of the Packers tonight. The Cowboys are 13-4 ATS in their last 17 games played in November. Dallas is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss. Dallas is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points. The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 against the NFC.
Cowboys are 4-1 ATS last 5 games following a double-digit loss at home.
Under is 5-1 last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record.
Key Injuries - CB Terence Newman (ribs) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
PACKERS: (-8, O/U 44) Green Bay is coming off an impressive road win over the New York Yets, and hope to keep that momentum going tonight. With a win tonight, Green Bay will have their first 3 game winning streak of the season. The Packers are 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS overall this season. Green Bay is really hoping to play well offensively tonight, as they've only scored more than 20 PTS once in their past 4 games overall. With a strong offensive performance tonight, it's unlikely the makeshift Dallas offense can keep up. Green Bay is averaging 22 PPG this season, thanks to the QB play of Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has thrown for more than 2,000 YDS this season while completing better than 61% of his passes, including 12 TD's. The biggest surprise of the season for Green Bay has been their defense. The Packers are 4th in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 17 PPG this year. Green Bay has a fierce pass rush that has 24 sacks on the season, tied for 3rd best in the NFL. The Packers are 6-1-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Green Bay is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game. The Packers are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win. Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Packers are 7-3-1 ATS last 11 games following a SU win.
Over is 15-7 last 22 games as a home favorite.
Key Injuries - CB Al Harris (knee) is questionable.
Projected Score: 31 (OVER-Total of the Day)