NFL News and Notes Sunday 11/8

Detroit (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at Seattle (2-5 SU and ATS)

The Lions, with just one victory in their last 24 games, head to the Pacific Northwest hoping to improve against the struggling Seahawks at Qwest Field.

Last week, Detroit went off as a favorite for the first time this year, but stumbled to a 17-10 home loss to winless St. Louis giving 3½ points. The Lions are averaging just 292.6 ypg and 16.1 ppg, rating 25th in the league in both categories, while their defense is giving up 369.6 ypg (23rd) and 29.3 ppg, a scoring total that is 31st in the league, ahead of only Tennessee (30.1 ppg).

Seattle was on the wrong end of a second straight blowout Sunday, losing at Dallas 38-17 as a 10-point ‘dog following a 27-3 home loss to Arizona as a three-point chalk. The Seahawks have been held to 19 points or less five times this year, losing all five games SU and ATS, and home-field advantage hasn’t really helped, as Seattle is 2-2 SU and ATS at Qwest.

Seattle has won both meetings (1-1 ATS) this decade with Detroit, including a less-than-scintillating 9-6 road win as a six-point favorite to open the 2006 season.

The Lions are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a non-cover, but they remain on ATS dives of 2-5 overall, 1-5 against NFC opponents and 3-7 in non-division roadies. On top of that, Detroit is just 1-23 SU and 9-15 ATS dating to the second-to-last week of 2007. The Seahawks, meanwhile, have failed to cover in five of their last six games, but they still carry positive ATS streaks of 11-5 laying points, 9-3 as a home chalk, 9-4 against losing teams and 10-5 as a non-division home favorite.

Detroit is on “over” streaks of 19-9-1 overall, 6-1 in November, 7-2 against losing teams and 21-7 on the road. Seattle is on “under” runs of 6-1 in November, 4-1 at home and 7-3-1 against NFC opponents.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

Tennessee (1-6, 2-5 ATS) at San Francisco (3-4, 5-1-1 ATS)

The Titans, who finally cracked the win column last week, will try to make it two in a row with a trip to Candlestick Park for a non-conference contest with the 49ers.

Tennessee dropped Jacksonville 30-13 as a three-point home favorite Sunday, ending an eight-game slide (1-7 ATs) dating to the last week of the 2008 regular-season for a team that went an NFL-best 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS last year before bowing out in the divisional playoff round. RB Chris Johnson went haywire with 24 carries for 228 yards and two TDs (89 and 52 yards) as the Titans rolled up 305 rushing yards.

Tennessee now sports the NFL’s second-best running attack (162.3 ypg), but it is getting outscored by two TDs per game in allowing a league-worst 30.1 ppg.

San Francisco hung with unbeaten Indianapolis last week, coming up short in an 18-14 road loss but easily cashing as a 13-point underdog. After a 3-1 SU start (4-0 ATS), the Niners have lost three in a row (1-1-1 ATS), averaging just 15 ppg during the skid, and they sit 27th in total offense this year at just 275.3 ypg.

Tennessee beat San Francisco 33-22 giving nine points at home in December 2005, the only meeting this decade between the two franchises.

The Titans are on pointspread skids of 1-5 overall and 1-5 in roadies, but they still sport positive ATS streaks of 15-7 as a pup, 8-1 getting 3½ to 10 points, 11-4 after a SU win, 7-3 against losing teams and 4-1 in November. The 49ers are on ATS upswings of 5-1-2 overall, 4-1-1 at home and 5-1 in November, but they are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 home starts laying 3½ to 10 points.

The under is on runs of 18-7-1 for Tennessee following a SU win, 5-1 for San Francisco after a SU loss and 9-4 for the Niners in November. However, the over is on surges of 4-1 for the Titans against losing teams and 11-4 with the 49ers a home chalk.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

San Diego (4-3, 2-5 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (5-3, 4-4 ATS)

The Giants hope to recover from a stunning three-game skid when they welcome the Chargers to the Meadowlands for a non-conference clash.

New York got blasted at Philadelphia on Sunday, trailing 30-7 by halftime in a 40-17 loss as a one-point favorite, losing and failing to cash for the third straight week after a 5-0 SU (4-1 ATS) start. During the skid, the Giants have allowed a whopping 37.3 ppg, while scoring just 19.3 ppg, and QB Eli Manning has seven turnovers (6 INTs, 1 fumble) against just three TD passes. New York still ranks fifth in total offense this year (386.9 ypg) and ninth in scoring (26.5 ppg), and its running attack is churning out 141.8 ypg (seventh).

San Diego has followed a 1-3 SU and ATS slide with a pair of SU victories (1-1 ATS), topping Oakland 24-16 last week but falling well short as a huge 16-point home chalk. Behind QB Philip Rivers, the Chargers have the NFL’s fourth-best passing attack (276.3 ypg), but they’ve been hindered all year by the league’s second-worst rushing game (74.7 ypg) and a defense susceptible to the run, giving up 132.1 ypg on the ground (27th).

In the lone meeting this decade between these teams, San Diego rolled 45-23 laying seven points at home in September 2005.

Despite their recent woes, the Giants remain on ATS tears of 33-16-2 overall, 5-1 in November, 9-4-1 as a chalk and 6-2 against the AFC, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against winning teams. The Chargers are on an 18-6-3 ATS tear as an underdog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 2-6 overall, 0-5 after a SU win, 3-7 on the highway and 3-10 in non-division road games.

The over is 3-1-1 in New York’s last five outings and 5-1-1 in the Giants last seven November tilts, and the over for San Diego is on several streaks, including 8-3-2 overall, 5-1 against winning teams, 4-1 after a SU win and 19-6-3 on the road.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and OVER

Dallas (5-2, 4-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (5-2 SU and ATS)

The Eagles and Cowboys both look to keep their current surges going when they meet at Lincoln Financial Field, with first place in the NFC East on the line.

Philadelphia ripped the Giants 40-17 Sunday as a one-point home underdog for its second straight win and cover. A huge key for the Eagles this season has been their penchant for forcing turnovers, as they are tied with Green Bay for the league lead with a plus-12 margin. That’s helped them rack up 29 ppg (third) despite being a middling 15th in total offense (344.4 ypg). Philly is also allowing 296.9 ypg (10th) and 19 ppg (eighth).

Dallas drilled Seattle 38-17 as a 10-point home favorite Sunday for its third consecutive victory (2-1 ATS). The Cowboys field the NFL’s second-best offense at 411.1 ypg, including a rushing attack that nets 147.6 ypg (sixth) and a passing game averaging 263.6 ypg (seventh). Dallas is just a pinch behind Philly in scoring at 28.1 ppg (tie for sixth), and the Pokes are giving up 19.4 ppg (10th).

Philadelphia is on a 5-1 ATS roll in this rivalry (3-2 SU), with the two teams splitting last year’s contests both SU and ATS. In the regular-season finale, the Eagles hammered the Cowboys 44-7 as a 2½-point home chalk to earn a playoff spot and deny Dallas a postseason berth. The underdog is on a 7-2 ATS run, and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.

The Eagles are on spread-covering streaks of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in division play, 6-1 at home, 5-0 as a home chalk and 6-2 against winning teams. The Cowboys have covered in four straight November starts and are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 NFC contests, but they also shoulder negative ATS streaks of 0-5 as a pup, 2-9 inside the division, 1-4 on the road and 1-4 against winning teams.

Philadelphia is on “over” tears of 7-1 overall, 7-0-1 at home, 6-0 in NFC action, 5-1 giving points and 26-11-1 against winning teams. Likewise, the over for Dallas is on binges of 7-2 overall, 19-9-2 on the highway, 5-1 against NFC foes and 8-3 in November. Finally, the over is on a 3-0-1 uptick in the last four series meetings in Philly.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Line Moves - Week 9
By Judd Hall

The betting shop’s long national nightmare is over! Two weeks ago, the sportsbooks suffered the single worst day they had ever seen with heavy favorites covering left and right. Last Sunday, the parlors were able to strike back a little with the “chalk” going 8-5 straight up, but only 5-8 against the spread.

This week we’ve got six teams on the board that are favored by at least nine-points. We’ve also six games where clubs are no higher than 4 ½-point favorites. Definitely a stark contrast between the quality of battles we’ll get to watch.

What’s even more surprising than the haves and have-nots in the NFL in terms of the spread this Sunday is stability. Only one game’s line moved more than one-point since the good folks at Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the line early in the week.

That one multi-point line that moved more than a point was between the Titans and 49ers. San Francisco was initially a six-point home favorite. But public perception of Tennessee’s win over the Jags has helped bring that spread down to its current line of four.

This recent spate of fairly sessile spreads made me wonder what the sportsbook would rather have: A lot of action on one side that fails to cover or have evenly spread money on both teams in a given game.

The sportsbook manager for betED, Randy Scott, helps us understand what the sportsbooks would rather have on a football Sunday. “Bookmaking is truly an art. Every book has it's different style of risk management. Some prefer to be virtually risk free by constantly adjusting their lines in an attempt to balance the action. And there are other books that look for quality one-sided decisions for a chance at a big return.”

“Most books start out by following the market numbers and monitor their incoming early action closely. The decision to move or not move a line is solely based on who is betting (wise guys) and the current market prices.” Scott concludes, “The art of bookmaking is in moving the lines in relation to the sharp bettors and market prices to maximize handle and create above theoretical returns with a favorable distribution of the action.”

One of those games with even action happens to be a big AFC North battle between the Ravens and Bengals. The Ravens won big last week against Denver 30-7 after three straight weeks of close defeats. Meanwhile, Cincinnati has come up with some good wins this year – including a 17-14 victory at Baltimore. Despite that road win over their rivals, the Bengals were initially 2 ½-point home pups.

“That's a very tricky line,” says Scott. “Expect that number to be adjusted. First criteria is; Over all Team strength (Power Rankings) then we use industry insight, then home field advantage is considered and finally it's the public perception that gets considered. Currently we have that game at Baltimore -2 (-120).”

Monday night’s scuffle between the Steelers and home standing Broncos is another close number for bettors to watch. Denver is listed as a three-point home underdog for this contest. That’s a little strange considering that the Broncos have only one loss on the books, which occurred last week and Pittsburgh isn’t nearly as strong as you’d think they should be.

Randy Scott says that the Broncos’ loss last week did affect this Monday’s line with Pittsburgh. So does the fact that Denver is 4-1 SU and ATS as a pup this season come into play for the oddsmakers? “Yes it does, but not heavily. They will still be underdogs but the line might be shortened because of their record,” explains Scott.

The plus side for gamblers is that you can take Denver on the money line for a plus-130 return (risk $100 to win $130). The sportsbooks make those shorter lines to offset the folks that just go and play the spread. “You will see money lines that don't seem to add up to the pointspread,” adds Scott. “That's because the players are heavy on the dog moneyline and heavy on the favorite pointspread.”

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Total Talk - Week 9
By Chris David

Week 8 Recap

As we enter the midway point of the year, we haven’t seen any serious league trends toward the ‘over’ or the ‘under’ so far. After eight weeks, the ‘over’ stands at 60-56-1 (52%) and that includes a 7-6 ‘under’ run in Week 8, which saw a little bit of everything. Seven of the 13 games played last week saw the final outcome decided by double digits. Of those decisions, the ‘over’ went 4-3.

Close calls usually dictate lower-scoring affairs, which in turn create ‘under’ winners. That was the case this past weekend as the ‘under’ went 4-2 in games decided by 10 or less. The two games that jumped ‘over’ were the Saints-Falcons battle on MNF and the Jets-Dolphins divisional clash.

The MNF ‘over’ run has been incredible (see below) this season and last so we won’t harp on that too much, but the AFC East rivalry between Miami and New York was tough to stomach for some, especially this writer. I played the ‘under’ based on an old vice versa (see last week’s TT) system with totals. With the score knotted at 3-3 after 30 minutes, it was time to relax with the kids for 90 minutes before the next session. Foolishly, I checked an update on my phone and saw 24-19 in the third, which just made me laugh.

Two things you cannot handicap in the NFL are turnovers and penalties but I’d like to add special team touchdowns after that loss. Six points at the half and 49 in the second. To think I lost a couple teasers with a number of 50.5 really stuck the knife deeper.

Round Two

Even though the Vice Versa total system lost on the Jets-Dolphins game last weekend, it did cash tickets with the Titans-Jaguars total. This week, we have another divisional matchup that fits the past history criteria but the number has gone up.

Cincinnati upset Baltimore 17-14 in on Oct. 11 as a 9 ½-point road underdog and the combined 31 points fell short of the 42-point closing total. Looking back at this contest, it’s easy to see that both teams left a lot of points off the board. Cincinnati and Baltimore both had multiple turnovers in the red zone plus one field goal was blocked.

The Bengals racked up 402 yards on the Ravens defense, which still gets a lot of undeserving hype according to VegasInsider.com handicapper Pat Hawkins. “The unit is a lot of older and even though they have some big names in Lewis and Reed, they’re not playing at the same level as last year. Teams have been able to go up and down the field on them and it’s fair to say that they’ve been more lucky than good this year,” said Hawkins.

Last year, the Ravens only gave up 20-plus points in five games. Through eight contests this season, the defense has allowed 24-plus point four times. Fortunately for Baltimore, the offense (28.4 PPG) has been stellar behind QB Joe Flacco.

In the 10 previous meetings, the total has gone 5-5. However, this week’s number of 43.5 is the highest total posted during this span, which tells me something.

Extra Week = Extra Points

The argument of rest vs. rust usually comes up with the bye week and the numbers posted this year have shown that the extra week has helped the offense. Twenty-four of the 32 clubs in the NFL have had their bye week already and 18 have played in games after the bye with six more on tap this weekend.

The scoring average for the 18 teams after the bye is an eye opening 26.6 PPG. We delved into the numbers a little further, took out the highest (Saints, 48) and lowest (Broncos, 7) and still came up with an average of 26.4 PPG.

So what does it mean in terms of totals? The ‘over’ has gone 9-9 in those games but that was helped by a 5-1 ‘under’ roll last weekend. Of those five winners, you can say it went 3-1 because the Ravens-Broncos and Jaguars-Titans matchups featured matchups between teams both off byes. So, let’s say the ‘over’ has gone 9-7 with bye teams.

This week, six clubs will look to keep the scoring trend going.

Cincinnati: The Bengals welcome the Ravens in an AFC North battle (see above).

Kansas City: The Chiefs’ offense under head coach Todd Haley has been anything but exciting this year. The offense (15 PPG) has looked awful under QB Matt Cassel but they will be playing a Jags’ defense (25.3 PPG) that has been suspect this year.

New England: After watching the Patriots put up 59 and 35 in their last two games, Tom Brady and company probably didn’t need the bye to get in gear. The offense is clicking right now and they face a Dolphins’ defense that has given up 27, 46 and 25 points in the last three and has a raw secondary.

Pittsburgh: The Steelers head to Denver on Monday Night Football (see below).

Tampa Bay: Rookie quarterback Josh Freeman will get his chance to lead an anemic offense (13.7 PPG) against a Packers’ defense (19.7 PPG) that has been opportunistic. The Bucs do have some weapons on offense, which makes you hope they don’t handcuff Freeman on Sunday.

Washington: The Jim Zorn days are winding down and nobody knows who’s calling the shots in D.C. anymore. Will the extra week help the Redskins? Washington hasn’t scored all year (13.7 PPG) and its third-down conversion (29.1%) rate is gross. Facing an Atlanta team that’s given up 16 PPG in its home games this year doesn’t look good for Zorn – again.

UNDER the Lights?

The ‘over’ on MNF has gone 8-1 (89%) this year but this week’s AFC showdown between Pittsburgh and Denver could make total players rethink their bets.

The Broncos have seen six of their seven games go ‘under’ the number this year and the lone game that did eclipse the closing total was their 34-23 win at San Diego on MNF. In case you forget, 21 of the 57 points posted came from special team touchdowns. If you take away the 34 in that game, Denver is only averaging 17.7 PPG.

Denver and Pittsburgh didn’t meet in the 2008 season but they squared off three times in the three previous years, which included a playoff game. In those three games, the ‘over’ has cashed in all three and very easily too. Plus the numbers (38, 36.5, 41) were in the same range as this week’s total of 39.5.

Baltimore exposed Denver last weekend and held them to 200 yards and seven points. It’s definitely safe to say that Pitt has the better defense too. The Steelers are ranked first against the run (76.6 YPG) and have had a knack of getting to the quarterback (21 sacks). Denver has been a good run-stopper (86.1 YPG) as well, plus they’ve tallied 23 sacks.

You might want to watch the first half of this game and then play the second-half ‘under’ considering Denver hasn’t allowed a second-half point in its three games from Invesco Field at Mile High this year.

Fearless Predictions

Shoulda, Coulda, Woulda…Anybody and everybody who bets always remember the losers more than the winners and that will never change. Last week’s Jets-Dolphins ‘under’ loser cost us some money in our teaser and prevented the $300 sweep. We hit the two totals, which pushes us to 8-6 (+140) on the year, but the teasers are 2-5 (-300). Bases on one-unit plays, we’re down $160 and we only have nine weeks to turn a profit for the postseason. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Dolphins-Patriots 47

Chad Henne and the Dolphins’ offense were humbled last week but since the former Michigan standout has started for Miami, the ‘over’ has gone 4-0. Now they face a Patriots’ defense that isn’t that great, so some points will be posted by the Fins but not as many as New England. Tom Brady and company have been on a roll lately and the rest should help them even more. In the last five seasons, the Pats have averaged 33.3 PPG after the bye week. If New England can convert TDs instead of FGs, don’t be surprised to see a 40-spot in this one.

Best Under: Steelers-Broncos 39.5

All things usually balance out in the long run and while the betting public has made serious cash on the MNF ‘over’ run, it ends this week in Colorado. Two great defenses will go head-to-head against two teams that need to run the football. Look for a tight game played to the buzzer with the winner claiming a 16-13 victory.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Dolphins-Patriots Over 38
Texans-Colts Over 39
Bengals-Ravens Over 34.5

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Early Division Battles
By Judd Hall

As we near the midway point of the season, divisional matchups take on even more meaning. Winning an intra-division contest can help get you a better seed in the playoffs, while losing can force you to make early tee times. There are two early games that have piqued my interest this week in the NFL. Let’s take a look at them.

Ravens at Bengals

First place in the AFC North is on the line when the Ravens head to the shores of the Ohio River to play Cincinnati (5-2 straight up, 4-3 against the spread) this weekend.

The Bengals are coming into this contest after an impressive 45-10 win over Chicago as two-point home pups. Carson Palmer seemingly couldn’t miss against the Bears’ secondary, completing 20 of 24 pass attempts for 233 yards and five touchdowns. Cedric Benson had a hell of an outing against his former team by rushing for 189 yards and a score on 37 carries.

Benson has been a major reason why Cincy has had such a turnaround this season. Last year, the Bengals were ranked 29th in the league with 95.0 rushing yards per game and the fewest touchdowns on the ground with six. Through seven fixtures in 2009, Cincinnati has scored six rushing touchdowns and ninth with 127.7 rushing YPG.

Cincinnati has also been great on the defensive side of the ball. They rank sixth in the NFL in scoring defense (18.3 points per game) and fifth in rushing defense (88.0). Antwan Odom has helped keep quarterback on their toes by picking up eight sacks this season.

Baltimore (4-3 SU, 5-2 ATS) is certainly feeling full of itself after knocking the Broncos from the ranks of the unbeaten in a 30-7 victory as a four-point home “chalk.” Ray Rice had a quality showing with 84 rushing yards and a touchdown on 23 carries. The Ravens’ defense was the true reason why they dominated Denver. The Broncs converted just three of their 13 third-downs and allowed 200 total yards.

The win over Denver snapped a three-game losing skid that the Ravens had been on, where they lost by a combined 14 points. That stretch includes a last minute 17-14 loss to the Bengals that was a tough pill to swallow.

Despite losing to Cincinnati at home, the Ravens are listed as three-point road favorites with a total of 43 ½.

“I think this is one of the toughest games on the board,” says VegasInsider.com expert handicapper Marc Lawrence. “Had Baltimore not beat Denver they would likely have been the underdog in this contest. The Bengals own four victories against teams with winning records and should benefit from a week of rest.”

“The bottom line is that the Ravens are favored because of the revenge factor - they lost to Cincinnati as 9 ½-point home favorites a month ago. A customary eight-point swing between games would bring them in at -1 ½. Add another 1 ½-points for the revenge and thus the line.”

Bodog’s Richard Gardner gives us his take on why the set the line as they did. “Players have been betting the Ravens all year, and this one of those games where we have to take in the bettor’s long term view of the two teams and the fact that some see it as a revenge game. We know bettors will expect a close game, but we know that bettors will see it as must win for the Ravens and bet who they consider to be the better team regardless of venue.”

This series has recently been the domain of the road team as the visitors are 3-1 SU, but just 2-2 ATS. The ‘under’ went 3-1 during that stretch as well.

What is good to know is that the Bengals have been good as home pups coming off of a bye as they’ve gone 3-2-1 SU and 4-2 in their last six games.

Texans at Colts

While the race for the AFC South doesn’t appear to be in doubt, this contest could be considered a slow changing of the guard. At least that’s one way to spin it.

Indianapolis (7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS) won its 16th consecutive regular season game last week, but had to earn it in an 18-14 decision over the 49ers as a 13-point home favorite. Peyton Manning may have connected on 31 of his 48 passes for 347 yards, but he looked out of sync for much of this game. Joseph Addai took care of the scoring as he tossed a 22-yard scoring pass to Reggie Wayne to take the lead in the fourth quarter.

Despite the close win last week, the Colts have been coldly effective on offense. They are averaging 28.1 PPG, while next to last in time of possession, averaging 29:36 per game.

Things didn’t look good for Houston (5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS) when they opened the season with they lost three of its first five decisions. The Texans have now won three straight games, covering the spread in two of those tilts.

The Texans had their way against Buffalo as 3 ½-point road faves in a 31-10 victory. Houston didn’t get into the end zone via the air, but did find pay dirt three times on the ground. What was surprising is that Steve Slaton wasn’t doing the scoring. Slaton was benched after he fumbled the ball away for the fifth time this year. His replacement, Ryan Moats, may have grabbed the starting job as he rushed 23 times for 126 yards and three scores.

All was not sunshine and lollipops for Gary Kubiak’s club last week. The Texans lost tight end Owen Daniels for the rest of the season. So does the loss of Daniels’ 519 receiving yards and five touchdowns factor into the sportsbooks into making Indy a 9 ½-point home “chalk?”

“The combination of the Owen Daniels injury and the fact that Indy's high powered offense sputtered definitely had an impact on the line dropping down from 10 ½,” says Gardner. “To most teams, a spread of 9 ½ would be big, but for Colts and the way they were playing prior to last week, this is a big deal, especially with 10 being a relevant number.”

Even though Houston has been team that was down in the dumps for much of its history, they’ve played the Colts tough. The Texans are 1-8 SU, but 5-4 ATS in their last nine head-to-head meetings with Indy. The ‘over’ is on an 8-0 run between these AFC South clubs.

Something else to keep in mind is that Indianapolis is that they are 13-2 SU, but just 5-9-1 ATS when listed as a 9 ½-point favorite over the last four seasons.

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NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 9

Washington Redskins at Atlanta Falcons (-10)

Why the Redskins cover: Their defense is one of the tops in the league allowing just 283 yards per contest which is good for fourth in the NFL. Owner Daniel Snyder is trying to light a fire beneath his team apologizing to fans for his team having “let everyone down.”

Why the Falcons cover: Atlanta is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 home games. Quarterback Matt Ryan will benefit from playing a Washington defense that has forced just three interceptions on the season. Running back Michael Turner showed signs of life last week rushing for 151 yards on just 20 carries and one touchdown.

Total (41): The under is 6-2-1 in Washington’s last nine away games. The over is 5-1 in the Falcons’ last six home games against a losing team.

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears (-3)

Why the Cardinals cover: Arizona is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games. The Cards are also 4-0 in their last four as a road dog, 6-0 in their last six as an underdog and 4-0 in their last four road games.

Why the Bears cover: Chicago is perfect at home this season posting a 3-0 ATS record. Jay Cutler sports a 91.6 QB rating at Soldier Field, compared to a 73.6 rating on the road. The Bears are averaging 121.3 rushing yards at home, including 170 last week against Cleveland. Arizona allowed a season-high 270 yards rushing vs. Carolina last week.

Total (44.5): Be sure to check the weather — the under is 4-1 the Bears last five home games.

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+3)

Why the Ravens cover: Baltimore is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games against AFC opponents and 16-5 in its last 21 games overall. The Ravens shredded Denver’s defense last week in a 30-7 trouncing. One of those losses came against the Bengals who defeated Baltimore 17-14 on Oct. 11. The Ravens should be out for blood.

Why the Bengals cover: Cincinnati is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 against the Ravens. The Bengals are holding opponents to just 88 yards rushing per game. Cincinnati is coming off a bye. Running back Cedric Benson is averaging over 100 rushing yards per game and torched the Ravens for 120 yards and a TD in the last matchup.

Total (43.5): The over is 5-2 the last seven meetings in Cincinnati.

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-9.5)

Why the Texans cover: This is the biggest game in the seven-year history of the Houston Texans. The Texans are 6-4 ATS in their last 10 games with the Colts. Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road and 4-1 ATS in the last five at Indianapolis.

Why the Colts cover: Peyton Manning is enjoying a remarkable campaign (2,227 yards, 71 percent completion percentage, 15 touchdown passes) which is a big reason the Colts are 5-2 ATS. The Colts are also 5-1 ATS following a straight-up win in their last six and 4-1 ATS following an ATS loss.

Total (48): The over is 8-0 in the last eight meetings between these two teams.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars (-6.5)

Why the Chiefs cover: Jacksonville is terribly inconsistent. Kansas City sports a 12-6 ATS record in its last 18 road games. Losing running back Larry Johnson could actually spark KC’s ground game.

Why the Jaguars cover: Jacksonville is 3-1 ATS versus the Chiefs in the last four meetings. The Chiefs are near the bottom of the league in rushing defense allowing 131 yards on the ground per game while Jacksonville is averaging 135.6 yards rushing.

Total (42): The total has gone over in five of Jacksonville’s last six home games.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+10)

Why the Packers cover: Green Bay should excel against a Tampa Bay team allowing 29 points per game. The Packers are 14-6-1 ATS in their last 21 games on the road. Aaron Rodgers has passed for 3122 yards on the road with 21 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.

Why the Buccaneers cover: Getting 10 points is a lot for any team at home, even for the Buccaneers. Rookie Josh Freeman will be handed the reins at quarterback for his first career start in hopes that he can give Tampa Bay the spark it needs. Tampa also has history on its side: The Buccaneers are 7-3-1 in their last 11 against Green Bay including 2-5 ATS in Tampa Bay.

Total (44): The Under is 4-1 the last five meetings in Tampa.

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots (-10.5)

Why the Dolphins cover: Miami has excelled in division play recently going 5-0 ATS against the AFC East. The Fish are also 7-0 in their last seven as a road dog of 10.5 points or greater. Ted Ginn Jr. returned two kickoffs for touchdowns last week against the Jets.

Why the Patriots cover: The Pats are 4-0 ATS in their last four against teams under .500 including 2-0 ATS this season. They’re also undefeated at home going 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS.

Total (46.5): Over is 6-1 in the Patriots’ last seven home games.

Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints (-13.5)

Why the Panthers cover: Carolina played turnover-free football last week in a 34-21 victory over Arizona. The ground game collected 270 yards. Drawing New Orleans off of a short week could do wonders for the Panthers. Carolina is 8-0 ATS in the last eight games played at New Orleans and 4-1 in the last five meetings overall.

Why the Saints cover: New Orleans is unstoppable on offense, but the defense is also playing well. Led by Darren Sharper’s seven interceptions, the Saints are leading the league with 16 picks. That’s trouble for a turnover-prone quarterback like Jake Delhomme. The Saints are 6-0 ATS their last six games following an ATS loss and are 4-1 ATS their last five are playing on Monday night.

Total (52): The over is 5-0 in the Panthers’ last five games against the NFC South.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks (-10)

Why the Lions cover: The Lions are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games after scoring less than 15 points. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson (knee) was back at practice in a limited capacity Wednesday after missing three weeks and could suit up Sunday.

Why the Seahawks cover: They are 4-1 ATS in their last five games after allowing 30 points or more. Detroit is giving up 29.3 points per game and 251 yards per game through the air.

Total (43): Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s last five home games.

San Diego Chargers at New York Giants (-4.5)

Why the Chargers cover: The Chargers have won two straight against the dregs of the AFC West (Kansas City and Oakland). That could give them some momentum against the slumping Giants. San Diego is 10-3-1 in its last 14 games as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.

Why the Giants cover: San Diego doesn’t always play well on the East Coast (0-6 SU, 1-5 ATS in last six regular season games). The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their last eight after allowing 30 points or more.

Total (47): Under is 10-1-1 in the Giants’ last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points in the previous game.

Tennessee Titans at San Francisco 49ers (-4)

Why the Titans cover: The quarterback change seemed to spark Tennessee’s offense. The Titans now boast big play threats on the ground with QB Vince Young and RB Chris Johnson sharing the backfield. The team’s secondary is almost completely recovered from a rash of injuries.

Why the 49ers cover: The 49ers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six contests at home, while Tennessee is still searching for its first road win of the season. San Francisco has been a tremendous bet all season. The club owns a 5-1-1 record against the spread.

Total (41): The total has gone over in six of San Francisco’s last nine games.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-3)

Why the Cowboys cover: The Cowboys are riding a three-game winning streak (2-1 ATS) and are 8-2 in their last 10 games against the NFC. Dallas’ pass rush is back after a slow start to the season. The club has dropped opposing QBs 11 times in the last three games.

Why the Eagles cover: Philadelphia is 3-0 ATS in the last three games against Dallas. The Eagles are 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven home games. Running back Brian Westbrook (concussion) will return to face Dallas on Sunday night.

Total (47.5): The over is 3-0-1 in the last three meetings at Philadelphia.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Denver Broncos (+3)

Why the Steelers cover: The Steelers are 7-3 SU in their last 10 road games while the Broncos are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. Pittsburgh is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games against teams with winning records.

Why the Broncos covered: The Broncos have surprised this year going 6-1 ATS. Denver’s improved defense could make things difficult for Pittsburgh’s pass-heavy offensive attack.

Total (39.5): The total has gone under in six of Denver’s last seven home games.

Week 9 NFL Betting Preview
By: Vernon Croy

We have passed the halfway point in the season and we've experienced a lot of highs and lows. Your favorite team has either established themselves as contenders or pretenders at this point and you pretty much know whether they have a shot at the playoffs by now. This has been one of the strangest seasons in recent memory with so many teams at the top of the league and so many teams in the cellar. The idea of parity in the league has apparently been thrown out the window at this point. There are multiple teams that are undefeated or have only one loss. There are also multiple teams that are yet to win or have only one victory. This should be an interesting last half of the season. Here is what to expect in the ninth week of the season.

Kansas City vs. Jacksonville (Jacksonville -6.5). This game features two teams that have been pretty bad so far this season. The Jags are favorites in this one, but this could be one of the most winnable games the Chiefs have had all year. The Chiefs managed to go on the road and win at Washington a few weeks back and this game is very similar. The Jags have already lost to the winless Titans and 41-0 to the Seahawks. There are definitely better games out there to watch this weekend.

Baltimore vs. Cincinnati (Baltimore -3). The Bengals have already managed to beat the Ravens once this season and they look to sweep them on the year. The Ravens are coming off of a big win against the undefeated Denver Broncos last week. Joe Flacco and Carson Palmer are both playing well this season and this should be an interesting battle at the quarterback position.

Houston vs. Indianapolis (Indianapolis -9). The Colts are still perfect and Peyton Manning is on pace to break Dan Marino's all-time record for passing yards in a season. The Colts are very good this year and should be considered Super Bowl contenders again. On the other side of the ball, the Texans have been great on offense this year. Matt Schaub has been one of the best quarterbacks in the league so far. The Texans have a big question mark in the running game after last weeks game. Their starter, Steve Slaton, was benched after his first carry of the game was a fumble. He was replaced by Ryan Moats who went on to score three touchdowns and rush for over 100 yards. It will be tough for them to decide who should get the majority of the carries.

Washington vs. Atlanta (Atlanta -10). The Falcons lost a tough game to the Saints last week on Monday night football. This game should be substantially easier for them as the Redskins are awful right now. They had the easiest schedule in the league during the first 7 games of the year and still only managed to win 2 games. The Falcons have a strong offense and it will be difficult for the Redskins to stop them the whole game.

Green Bay vs. Tampa Bay (Green Bay -9.5). Now that the Brett Favre/Green Bay saga is officially done for the year, the Packers can get back to focusing on winning again. The Bucs have been terrible this year and are currently winless on the season. Aaron Rodgers should easily pick apart the Bucs defense and Ryan Grant will have his way with them as well.

Arizona vs. Chicago (Chicago -3). Both teams have been a bit up and down on the season. The Cardinals have not been nearly as explosive on offense this season, however, their defense has improved. They are playing pretty good now and the Bears are not bad either. This should be one of the more entertaining games of the week.

Miami vs. New England (New England -10.5). This will be one of the most widely televised games of the week. The Patriots look to continue on their winning ways and the Dolphins try to get their season turned around. The Dolphins have played well but have had one of the most difficult schedules of any team. They played the Saints tough a few weeks ago and they will give the Patriots a good game with the Wildcat.

Detroit vs. Seattle (Seattle -10). The Lions allowed the winless Rams to get their first win of the season last week. They have played pretty badly again this year and the rebuilding project is going slowly. The Seahawks have looked up and down and lost to the Cowboys pretty handily last week. They should have an easier go of it this week against the lowly Lions.

Tennessee vs. San Francisco (San Francisco -4). The Niners took the undefeated Colts down to the wire last weekend and this week they are only four point favorites against a one win team. Such is life in the NFL. The Titans played better last week with Vince Young under center and they hope to continue the momentum against San Francisco.

San Diego vs. New York Giants (New York -5). The Giants have lost three in a row and look to be on a downward spiral. This week they get the inconsistent Chargers who have been playing well in recent weeks. The Chargers are always one of the most talented teams and usually find ways to lose. Therefore, this one is a toss up between two underachieving teams.

Dallas vs. Philadelphia (Philadelphia -3). The Dallas Cowboys have looked much better ever since they nearly lost in overtime to the Chiefs. They beat the Falcons and Seahawks pretty easily and this week they get a real test. The Eagles dismantled the Giants last week and this week they look to keep it going. Will we get to see the Eagles team that messed around and lost to the Raiders? Or will we see the team that destroyed the Giants last week? Only time will tell.

Pittsburgh vs. Denver (Pittsburgh -3). The Steelers and Broncos square off on Monday Night Football this week. The Broncos proved that they are not unbeatable last week in a blowout loss to the Ravens. The Steelers have played good lately and are the favorites going into this one. Looks like another classic Monday Night Football matchup.

Week 9 NFL games

Chiefs (1-6) @ Jaguars (3-4)-- No idea what to expect from an erratic Jax club that gave up 305 rushing yards in loss at 0-6 Titans last week; they're 0-2 vs spread as a favorite this year, and have been -2 in turnovers in each of their last three games. Chiefs are 1-2 as road underdog, losing 38-24 at Ravens, 34-14 at Philly, then winning at Washington. KC is just 28-58 passing last two games, and has scored total of just 33 first half points in 1-6 start. All three Jax home games went over the total; over is 3-1-1 in last five Kansas City games. AFC South home faves are 2-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West road underdogs are 2-6.

Ravens (4-3) @ Bengals (5-2)-- Emotional Bengals upset Ravens 17-14 (+9) in Baltimore four weeks ago, in first game after Coach Zimmer's wife died; they outgained Ravens 403-257, outrushed them 142-82. Ravens lost three of last four visits here, are 1-2 on road, with three games decided by total of 13 pts. Baltimore scored 30+ points in all four wins, scored 14-21-31 in losses; they scored six TDs on 22 drives in last two games. Bengals won five of last six games, but are just 2-2 at home, losing to Broncos, Texans. Over is 4-1-1 in last six Cincinnati games. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in AFC North games this season.

Texans (5-3) @ Colts (7-0)-- Indy won nine of last ten games vs Texans, with Houston losing last five visits here by 35-14-19-23-6 points. Texans won last three games, scoring 28-24-31 points (10 TDs/32 drives, eight 3/outs)- they ran ball for 186 yards in Buffalo last week, first time they've been over 120 in '09. Colts are 5-2 vs spread, 1-2 at home, winning by 2-17-4 points- they gave up total of 29 points in last three games (two TDs/32 drives), haven't turned ball over in last two games. Texans are 2-1 as an underdog this year. Under is 3-1-1 in Houston's last five games. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in AFC South games this season.

Redskins (2-5) @ Falcons (4-3)-- Dysfunctional Skins are 0-3 on road, with losses by 6-5-3 points; they don't have a loss by more than 10, are 2-1 as an underdog- they held four of last six opponents under 5.0 ypp, catch Falcons off Monday night rivalry game. Atlanta is 3-0 as home favorite, winning by 12-8-7 points; they gave up 26-37-35 points in losses, average of 12.8 in their wins. Redskins are 7 for last 35 on third down. Five of last six Washington games stayed under total, three of last four Falcon games went over. NFC East teams are 11-10 vs spread out of division, 1-2 as dog, 1-1 on road; NFC South home favorites are 5-2.

Packers (4-3) @ Buccaneers (0-7)-- Green Bay allowed 31-30-38 in its losses, average of 8.8 ppg in wins, with three wins by 19+ points. Pack (+1.5) lost 30-21 here LY, with only eight first downs; Bucs outrushed them 178-28, but winless Tampa already has five losses by 13+ points (1-6 vs spread). Packers are 4-2 vs spread as favorite, with road wins by 36-17 at St Louis, 31-3 over the Browns. Bucs haven't been inside opponents' 20-yard line in last couple games- they went 3/out on 29 of last 56 drives. NFC South underdogs are 3-9 vs spread in non-division games, 0-4 at home. NFC North favorites are 6-4 vs spread out of division, 5-0 on road.

Cardinals (4-3) @ Bears (4-3)-- Chicago is 3-0 at home, winning by 3-24-24 points (3-0 as favorite, 2-0 at home); they're 4-0 when scoring 17+ points, 0-3 if they don't. Third road game in four weeks for Arizona; Cardinals are 3-0 on road, scoring nine TDs on 36 drives; visitor is 6-1 vs spread in their '09 games- they've held only one team under 17 points this year. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under total. Last three Redbird opponents completed just 37-82 passes. Chicago is 1-3 when it scores less than 25 points. NFC North favorites are 6-4 vs spread out of division, 1-4 at home. NFC West underdogs are 7-6, 7-2 on the road.

Dolphins (3-4) @ Patriots (5-2)-- Visitor is 5-3 in last eight series games, with Miami winning here 38-13 LY in debut of Wildcat offense; last six series tilts were all decided by 20+ points. Dolphins won three of last four games- they blew 24-3 lead in only loss, but Jets outgained them 378-104 last week, with Fish winning on strength of two kick return TDs by Ginn and a defensive TD. None of Miami's four losses are by more than 12 points. Pats covered four of last five games, with positive turnover ratio in all five of the games. Last four Miami games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-1 vs spread in AFC East games this season.

Panthers (3-4) @ Saints (7-0)-- Carolina won last five visits here, winning the last two by combined total of five points; they've won three of last four games after a 0-3 start- three of their four losses are by 11+ points (1-3 as underdog, road losses by 8-14 points). Saints are 6-1 vs spread, failing to cover Monday for first time in '09- they're 3-1 as home favorite, winning by 18-14-21-8 pts. Panthers ran ball for 267-116-270 yards in last three games; they passed ball for average of 84 ypg in three wins, so if they can't run ball, Delhomme hasn't been able to carry his share of load. Saints allowed 137-161 rushing yards last two games, a red flag. Last three New Orleans games went over the total.

Lions (1-6) @ Seahawks (2-5)-- Seattle lost five of last six games, with four losses by 13+ points, hard to envision them laying double digits to any team, but Detroit lost at home to 0-17 Rams last week, is 0-3 as a road dog so far in '09, losing 45-27/48-24/26-0, allowing 13 TD, 8 FG on opponents' 33 drives. Lions scored one TD on 21 drives (nine 3/outs) in last two games. Three of four Seattle home games stayed under total. Last four Seahawk games were all decided by 17+ points, with Seattle 2-1 as a favorite. NFC West home faves are 2-3 vs spread in non-division games; NFC North underdogs are 3-4, 0-4 on road. Hard to be enthusiastic about either side in this game.

Titans (1-6) @ 49ers (3-4)-- Tennessee won first game last week; Young was 15-18/125 passing, Titans ran ball for 305 yards, third time this year they ran ball for 193+ yards. 49ers lost last three games after 3-0 start, but they held Colts to one TD on 12 drives in Indy, forcing four FG tries- their last couple games were decided by total of seven points. Tennessee is 1-3 as road dog in '09, with away losses by 3-7-20-59 points. Niners are 2-1 as a favorite. NFC West home favorites are 2-3 vs spread out of division; AFC South underdogs are 3-9 vs spread, 3-5 on road. Titans' last four games were all decided by 17+ points. Tennessee is 2-25 on third down in their last two games.

Chargers (4-3) @ Giants (5-3)-- Manning won't get any sympathy from team he refused to play for; Big Blue lost last three games, with Giants giving up an average of 38 ppg (15 TDs, only three FG attempts on 38 drives) in setbacks. Chargers crushed Giants 45-23 (-6) in 2005, in Eli's only previous meeting vs Bolts. Last three Giant opponents are 60-89/787 passing. San Diego scored 23 or more points in every game, with losses by 5-10-11 points; they're 0-1 as an underdog. AFC West underdogs are 6-8 vs spread out of division, 2-6 on road. NFC East home favorites are 6-4. Other than narrow win at Dallas, four clubs Giants beat have a combined record of 6-23.

Cowboys (5-2) @ Eagles (5-2)-- More diverse Dallas averaged 9.9/9.6/6.6 ypp in winning last three games, scoring 26-37-38 points (10 TDs/32 drives); they are underdog for first time this year. Philly won last three home games by 20-19-23 points. Teams split last eight in series, with Pokes losing here 44-6 last year in Week 17 tank job that knocked them out of playoffs. Eagles are 4-1 vs spread as favorite this year. Philly is +10 in turnovers last four games, taking ball away 12 times. Cowboys have 17 sacks in last five games. Six of seven Eagle games, five of seven Dallas contests went over total. Underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in NFC East games.

Monday, November 9

Steelers (5-2) @ Broncos (6-1)-- Denver has only two takeaways in last three games, after 10 in first four; Broncos are 3-0 at home, winning by 21-7-3 pts, with wins over Dallas/Patriots. Pitt won last four games after 1-2 start, scoring 30 ppg (13 TD/38 drives); they're just 1-2 on road, winning 28-20 at Detroit, losing at Chicago, Cincy. Steelers allowed TD on offense/special teams in their last five games. AFC North favorites are 5-5 vs spread outside its division, 0-2 on road. AFC West underdogs are 6-8, 4-2 at home. Six of seven Denver games stayed under the total; four of last five Steeler games went over. Average total in last three series games is 53.7.

What Bettors Need to Know

The Big payback?

The Dallas Cowboys will be seeking a bit of payback when these longstanding division rivals meet for the 100th time Sunday night with first-place on the line.

The Cowboys closed the 2008 season in Philadelphia with a wild card berth on the line and were promptly pummeled by the Eagles 44-6. Dallas had five turnovers in that one – three by quarterback Tony Romo – which included fumble returns for touchdowns of 73 and 96 yards.

"We just flat out got our tail whooped, man. No excuse or anything like that," receiver Patrick Clayton told the Cowboys' official website. "We went home and had to sulk and had to deal with that for the whole offseason."

The loss was the most lopsided in the history of the series.

"I think we all remember so much - I know I do and so many players on this team remember - how we left Philadelphia last year," owner Jerry Jones said.

Added head coach Wade Phillips, “The motivation is clear to me that this is a big game. Whoever wins this is at the halfway point of the season and in first place. To me, that’s as much motivation as you need. But if you need more, if that (44-6) sticks in your craw, use that too.”

On the move

Both teams enter this playing their best football of the season. The Cowboys (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) are riding a three-game win streak while the Eagles (5-2, 5-2) have reeled off two straight including a 40-17 spanking of the Giants last week, since their unexplainable loss to the Raiders in week five.

The Cowboys, which now boasts the league’s second-ranked offense, have scored 101 points during their winning streak while giving up just 19 points a game. Romo has posted 100-plus QB ratings in all three games and for the first time in his starting career and he has not been intercepted in three consecutive games.

“I’m seeing things. It’s as simple as that. I’m not throwing and hoping,” Romo told reporters.

A major catalyst in the Cowboys resurgence has been receiver Miles Austin, whose 482 receiving yards in his first three starts are the most by any player since 1970. He’s also scored at least one touchdown in each of those games with five in total.

The Cowboys’ defense has recorded 11 of its 17 sacks and five of its nine takeaways during the winning streak.

"Defensively, they're flying around," Eagles coach Andy Reid said. "They're blitzing from all over the place."

McNabb is coming off arguably his best game of the season against the Giants. The veteran signal caller went 17-of-23 for 240 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions. He has a seasonal quarterback rating of 103.2 - a mark he’s bettered just once in his career, in 2004 while leading the Eagles to the Super Bowl.

Action Jackson

DeSean Jackson continues to be the big-play guy for Philadelphia. He notched his sixth touchdown of 50 yards or more last Sunday, three shy of breaking the NFL single-season record.

"I've just been put in some great positions to score long touchdowns," Jackson said. "Whatever we need to do to make it work, that's what we're going to do. I want to keep winning, keep making plays and hopefully make it to the Super Bowl."

Speculation out of Dallas earlier in the week was that cornerback Terence Newman would shadow Jackson all game. The Cowboys used a similar strategy vs. Carolina earlier this year and it was effective. Newman followed Steve Smith all over the field and held him to four catches for 38 yards.

However, growing confidence in second-year cornerback Mike Jenkins could scrap the plan, though Phillips wouldn’t confirm or deny.

“That’s part of our game plan, so I’m really not going to go into that,” Phillips said. “I think Jenkins is playing better and better. Newman certainly is a talent and matched up well with (Smith). It depends on what you’re doing and what they’re doing.

On the mend

Running back Brian Westbrook, who did not play last week because of concussion symptoms, is listed as questionable but is expected to play. Westbrook practiced most of the week, but was held out Friday as a precaution. Reid said he thinks Westbrook “can contribute a bunch” this week and that he’s likely to lead the running back rotation with LeSean McCoy.

Line movement

The line opened with the Eagles as 3.5-point favorites and has moved to -3 virtually everywhere. The total has held solid at 49, though a few betting shops have upped it slightly to 49.5.

Weather

It should be a glorious fall day in Philadelphia as the forecast calls for sunny skies with a high of 66 degrees.

Trends

The Cowboys are: 0-5 ATS in their last five games as an underdog…1-4 ATS in their last five road games.

The Eagles are: 5-0 ATS in their last five games as a home favorite…6-1 ATS in their last seven home games…4-1 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.

The Over is: 7-2 in the Cowboys last nine games overall…7-1 in the Eagles last eight games overall.

Head-to-Head: The underdog is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings…the Cowboys are 1-5 ATS in their last six meeting.

Week 9 Weather Report

Arizona Cardinals at Chicago Bears

The game should be a pleasant 60 degrees at kickoff, but expect a stiff breeze in the Windy City. Weather.com is calling for a steady, 11-mph wind that could have an impact on both teams. Bears signal caller Jake Cutler has been anything but consistent this year and Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner was playing soft toss with defenders last week. This game will boil down to the Cardinals stiff run defense against a bounding Bears running game.

Detroit Lions at Seattle Seahawks

These teams should luck out and avoid any showers this weekend, but they can expect to play in at least a 10-mph wind that could bother both passing games. Lions quarterback Matt Stafford is still learning the pro game as a rookie and Seattle signal caller Matt Hasselbeck has been dinged up for weeks. If Seattle gets its ground game going, this one could get ugly quick.

Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The only thing that may shut down Green Bay’s passing game in this one is a 17-mph wind that could wreck havoc for a team reliant on the deep ball. Tampa Bay has one of the worst defenses in the league and anything that could limit the Packers would be huge to help them cover the spread and keep the total low.

Kansas City Chiefs at Jacksonville Jaguars

This game already figures to be ugly, but could be even worse than anticipated, as the forecast calls for a gusty 15-mph wind that could keep both teams passes grounded for most of the afternoon. The Jaguars' running game appeared to finally hit its stride last week, and if this turns into ground battle, the home team figures to have an edge in a low-scoring affair.

Up for Grabs
By SportsPic

A pivotal midseason clash between Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles takes place at Lincoln Financial Field Sunday night with the winner taking sole possession of the NFC East. Dallas enters 5-2 (4-3 ATS) highlighted by convincing defeats of Falcons (37-21) and Seahawks (38-17) in the most recent efforts. Eagles come into Sunday's tilt with an identical 5-2 (5-2 ATS) mark having pounded Giants 40-17 last week which followed a 27-17 verdict over lowly Redskins in week-7. Cowboys certainly head into the City of Brotherly Love motivated. The Eagles with a crushing 44-6 victory right here in the 2008 regular season finale not only knocked 'The Boys' off their horses but also knocked them out of the playoffs. Although this is a huge revenge game for Dallas history suggests the Cowboys and their backers could be in for a rough ride. Cowboys have lost 11-of-16 (4-11-1 ATS) meetings including 2-6 (3-5 ATS) the last eight trips into Philadelphia outscored 31.4 to 17.1. Cowboys have lost five straight in an underdog roll and are 1-9 ATS on the road off a cover as double-digit favorite. Spread-wise Birds fly in 12-2 ATS off division game, 11-1 ATS following a battle with G-Men, 6-1 ATS last seven as home favorites.

Tips and Trends

San Diego Chargers at New York Giants

Chargers: Have won back to back games for the first time this season, to get their record to 4-3 SU. Chargers have yet to win a game against a team with a winning record. RB LaDanian Tomlinson and RB Darren Sproles will look to run the ball effectively today, having combined to rush for more than 100 YDS last two games. Chargers defense has been better of late, as they've been able to pressure the opposing QB. LB Shawne Merriman appears to be quicker, as does LB Shaun Phillips. Chargers defense has given up a total of 23 points last two weeks. holding opponents under 225 total yards.

Chargers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games.
Chargers are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - LB Tim Dobbins (knee) is out.
LB Kevin Burnett (ankle) is questionable.
DT Ogemdi Nwagbuo (ankle) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Giants (-4.5, O/U 47.5): The Giants are reeling, having lost 3 straight games, 2 of which in blowout fashion. Their 5-0 record seems long ago. QB Eli Manning and the defense have been the primary culprits of their demise. Manning has 6 INT and thrown less than 250 YDS last 3 games. The Giants have been outscored 112-61 over that three game span, its defense giving up 1,172 yards in the stretch. Eli Manning will look to redeem himself against the team he spurned on Draft Day, as well as the player he was traded for in Philip Rivers.

Giants are 33-16-2 ATS last 51 games overall.
Under is 10-1-1 last 12 games after allowing more than 30 points their previous game.

Key Injuries - TE Kevin Boss (ankle) is probable.
RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot) is probable.
WR Mario Manningham (shoulder) is probable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24 (UNDER - Total of the Day)

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Cowboys: Cowboys are playing their best football of the season, as they have won 3 straight games. This will be the first time all season the Cowboys are an underdog. QB Tony Romo has been playing great lately, and hasn't thrown an INT in 3 games. Romo loves the month of November, as he's won 12 consecutive November starts. Romo throws to a cast of receivers. Last week, 10 different Cowboys caught a pass. Cowboys defense has stepped up of late, with 7 sacks and 5 forced turnovers. The Cowboys will attempt to keep the Eagles away from the big play, counting on CB Terence Newman to make plays.

Cowboys are 2-9 ATS last 11 vs. NFC East.
Cowboys are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - KR Allen Rossum (hamstring) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 23

Eagles (-3, O/U 49): Eagles welcome Dallas for their 100th series matchup. Eagles are 3-1 SU and ATS at home this year. Eagles offense has averaged 36 PPG in their home wins. All 4 home games have gone OVER the posted total. QB Donovan McNabb is healthy again, and leads a quick strike offense that has scored 17 touchdowns in 6 plays or less. WR DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin lead the dynamic receiving corps. Eagles defense will look to pressure QB Tony Romo into mistakes, as the Eagles lead the NFL in takeaways with 21.

Eagles are 5-0 ATS last 5 games as a home favorite.
Over is 6-0 last 6 versus the NFC.

Key Injuries - LB Chris Gocong (hamstring) is questionable.
RB Brian Westbrook (concussion) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 31 (Side of the Day)