Week 14 Games
Giants (8-4) @ Vikings (5-7) - Minnesota 2-0 with Frazier as interim coach, allowing 13.5 ppg (forced 10 3/outs on 21 drives), but they won last week despite throwing four INTs (had five takeaways), which doesn’t happen much. Vikings won last four in series, including 44-7 debacle LY. Manning hasn’t been sacked in last five games; Giants were held to 20 or less points in all four losses- they’re 7-0 if they score more than 20 points. Minnesota had allowed 24+ points in five straight games before coaching change was made- is noticeable that team plays harder with Childress gone. NFC North underdogs are 9-6-1 vs spread in non-divisional games. Over is 6-2-1 in last nine Viking games, but 0-3 in Giants’ last three.
Raiders (6-6) @ Jaguars (7-5) - Jags won four of last five games (5-0 vs spread), running ball for average of 184.6 ypg; they’ve won three of four games vs Oakland, winning last three meetings by average score of 27-9. Raiders lost 49-11 in only visit here, in ’07. Jaguars are 3-0 as a favorite this year, winning by 7-7-4 points; this is first time all year they’ve been favored by more than 2 points. Only one of Oakland’s six losses was by less than 7 points; they’re 3-3 as road dog, but were outscored 44-10 in second half of last three games. AFC south home favorites are 6-8 out of division; AFC West road underdogs are 5-7. Three of last four Jaguar home games went over total.
Bengals (2-10) @ Steelers (9-3) - Roethlisberger had broken nose operated on during week, is expected to play here. Pitt (-5.5) hung on to beat Bengals 27-21 in Week 9 Monday nighter, their 13th win in last 18 series games, but Cincy is 3-2 SU in last five visits here. Steelers won last three games overall, allowing 9.7 ppg (two TDs on 33 drives); they’re 3-2 at home, winning by 6-18-32 points (2-2 as home favorite). Bengals haven’t won since baseball season, losing last nine games- they’re 1-3 as a road underdog, losing away games by 14-3-7-6-16 points. Dogs are 5-2 vs spread in AFC North divisional games this year. Last three Steeler games stayed under total. In last three games, Bengals allowed 79 2nd half points in 90:00. Not good.
Patriots (10-2) @ Bears (9-3) - Bears are 6-1 SU this year when an underdog. Short week and travel for NE squad off resounding 45-3 win in rivalry game Monday, their 4th win in row; Pats scored 40 ppg in those four wins (16 TDs/41 drives)- they were held to 14 in each of their losses. Chicago is 5-0 since its bye, allowing just 15.6 ppg (8 TDs on 50 drives); they’re getting balance on offense (123 RY/game) with only five giveaways during win streak. Teams are 8-1 vs spread the week after playing Detroit. Favorites are 3-5 vs spread the week after playing the Jets. Last six Patriot games went over total, as have five of their six road games. Patriots are 5-1 vs Chicago since 46-10 loss in Super Bowl XX.
Browns (5-7) @ Bills (2-10) - Dating back to ’09, Cleveland is 9-7 in last 16 games, 4-2 in last six; they won last three games in Lake Erie rivalry by 8-2-3 points, winning by unlikely 8-0/6-3 scores. Browns won last two weeks by combined total of 4 points; they’re +11 in turnovers over last six games (were -4 before that). Bills are 4-2-1 vs. spread in last seven games, with only one loss by more than 3 points in that stretch. Worst thing they did last week was KO Favre; Vikings played harder with Jackson at QB. Hillis could have big day against Buffalo defense that allowed 206-210 rushing yards in last two games. Bills were outscored 75-21 in first half of last three games. Home teams are 0-3 the week after playing Minnesota (were favored in all three). Six of last seven Cleveland games went over total.
Packers (9-3) @ Detroit (2-10) - Lions outgained Pack 431-261 in 28-26 loss at Lambeau (+14) in Week 4, but 13 penalties, three turnovers (+1) cost them 10th straight series loss (six of seven by 10+ points). Green Bay won last four visits here by 7-11-23-22 points. Pack won five of last six games, with last three wins all by 18+ points; they’re 3-3 on road, 2-2 as road favorite. Detroit is 9-3 vs spread this year, with six of 10 losses by 5 or less points; they’re 3-1 as home dog, losing home games by 3-3-16-4 points (beat Rams/Redskins), but they’ve been outscored 73-19 in second half of their last three games. Teams are just 2-6 week after playing 49ers. Eight of last nine Detroit games went over the total.
Falcons (10-2) @ Panthers (1-11) - Carolina lost its last six games (1-5 vs spread); they’re 1-3 as home underdog, losing last two home games by combined score of 71-16. Hard to win without a competent QB. Falcons won last six games, covered last four, but only one of the six wins was by more than 7 points; they’re 7-3 as favorite this year, 3-1 on road. Home side won last five series games; Falcons lost last two visits here. Four of last five series totals in Charlotte were 33 or less. Home teams are 1-7 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games; home dogs are 0-3. Six of last seven Falcon games went over total, as did last four Carolina games. Nine of Panthers’ 11 losses are by 10+ points.
Buccaneers (7-5) @ Redskins (5-7) - Tampa Bay is 4-1 in games decided by 4 or less points, Redskins are 4-3 in games decided by 5 or less. Skins are -8 in turnovers last four games, with only three takeaways. Suspension of Haynesworth could hurt; they’re allowing 50 more rushing yards per game in games he sat out. Home side won five of last six series games, with all six decided by 6 or less points; Washington lost four of last five games, scoring 13 ppg in last three (3 TD’s on 35 drives). Bucs are 7-0 vs teams with .500 or worse records, 0-5 vs winning teams; they’re 4-2 on road, losing at Atlanta-Baltimore. NFC South road favorites are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Last three Redskin games stayed under the total.
Rams (6-6) @ Saints (9-3) - Defending champs are hot, winning last five games (4-1 vs. spread), scoring 33 ppg in last four games (15 TDs on last 41 drives); Saints are 4-2 at home, 2-3-1 as home faves, winning by 5-2-10-15 points at home (lost to Falcons/Browns). Rams held eight of 12 foes to 18 or less points; they’re 1-3 in other four games, losing by 38-3-17 points, but are also 4-1 as road dogs. Third week in row on road for St Louis team that is 0-2 against teams with winning records this year (17-18 at Bucs, 17-34 vs Falcons- they’re 2-1 vs teams with .500 records); Rams won last two weeks on road- they’ve only turned ball over twice in last five games (+6). NFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs. spread in non-divisional games. Saints’ last three games went over total.
Dolphins (6-6) @ Jets (9-3) - Jets got whacked 45-3 Monday night, ending 4-game win streak; they were held without TD in all three losses. Gang Green is 2-3 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 14-9-3-16 points (lost to Ravens/Packers). Dolphins are 5-1 on road, 4-1 as road dog; only road loss was 26-10 at Baltimore. Miami won three of last four series games, after losing previous eight; average total in their last three visits here, 51.7. Jets (+2) won first matchup this year 31-23 in Week 3, as Sanchez averaged 9.1 ypa and Jets converted 6-11 on 3rd down. Home sides are 2-5 vs. spread in AFC East divisional games. Nine of last eleven Jet games went over total, but Jets haven’t scored first half TD in either of their last two games.
Seahawks (6-6) @ 49ers (4-8) - Clueless Niners apparently fired their DB coach this week, and also changed QB’s again, as Alex Smith will start this game; they got crushed 31-6 (-3) at Seattle in season opener, converting just 1-15 on 3rd down, going 3/out on 6 of 11 drives. Seattle won five of last seven visits here, with three of last four totals at this site 34 or less. 49ers are 3-6 as favorite this year, 1-3 at home; they’re 2-3 at Candlestick, beating Oakland 17-9, Rams 23-20 in OT. Seahawks lost four of last six games; they’re 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dog, losing away games by 17-17-30-15 points (won at Chicago/Arizona). Underdogs are 5-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Last five Seattle games went over the total.
Broncos (3-9) @ Cardinals (3-9) - Not lot to choose from here; Denver just fired its coach- they’ve lost seven of last eight games, are 5-17 in last 22 games overall. Arizona lost its last seven games, is starting Fordham rookie Skelton here; he has strong arm, but is very raw. Cardinals lost last four home games, allowing 30 ppg; they’ve gone 3/out on 18 of last 34 drives at home, and didn’t score TD in last two games (21 drives). Denver lost its last four road games by average of 12 points. NFC West home underdogs are 5-3 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West favorites are 9-7, 2-2 on road. Teams are 2-7 (4-2 vs spread as dogs) week after playing the Rams; favorites are 2-0-1 week after playing the Chiefs. Seven of last ten Arizona games went over the total.
Chiefs (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6) - Favorites are 0-7 vs spread week after playing Oakland. Chiefs won last three games, running ball for average of 204.7 ypg; they’re just 2-4 on road, winning 16-14 in Cleveland (+3), 42-24 in Seattle (-1.5) but they did beat San Diego 21-14 in season opener (+4.5), despite being outgained by 192 yards. KC ran punt back for TD in that game, their first series win in last six tries. KC lost five of last six visits here, with only one of losses by less than 7 points. Chargers had 4-game win streak snapped last week; they’re 4-2 at home, with all four wins by 8+ points (4-2 as HF). Underdogs are 6-2 vs. spread in AFC West divisional games. Last three Charger games stayed under total, but six of last eight Chief games went over. Chiefs' starting QB Cassel had an appendectomy Wednesday, most likely it was an emergency. Trust me-- from someone who has had one of these, he is not playing in San Diego Sunday. Backup Croyle is 0-9 as an NFL starter.
Eagles (8-4) @ Cowboys (4-8) - Seven of last eight Eagle games went over total, as did last nine Dallas games. Cowboys are 3-1 under Garrett (4-0 vs spread), losing to Saints by FG, so they’re playing with more energy since coaching change; Pokes were 3-0 vs Philly LY, winning by average score of 26-10. Home team won five of last six series games, as Eagles lost last three visits here. Philly is 4-1 since its bye, but banged-up defense allowed 55 points in last two games (8 TDs on 19 drives)- they’ve scored 26+ points in all five games since their bye (4-1). Road team is 10-0-1 vs spread in game involving team that played Colts the previous week; home teams are 1-4 SU, 0-4-1 vs spread week after playing Indy, allowing 32.6 ppg.
Ravens (8-4) @ Texans (5-7) - Baltimore has to be smarting after losing pivotal game to Steelers last week on sack/fumble with 3:14 left when they had 10-6 lead and the ball, but Ravens are 3-0 in game following a loss this year, winning by 7-3-24 points (1-2 as favorite in those games). Baltimore is just 3-3 on road, with five of six games decided by 5 or less points. Houston can score, putting up 20+ points in nine of 12 games, but they’re 3-3 at home, and allowed 30+ points in seven of last eight games (shut Titans out when 3rd-stringer Smith played QB). AFC South underdogs are 8-6 vs spread in non-division games, 0-2 at home. AFC North favorites are 6-11, 3-2 on road. Four of last five Houston games went over total. Ravens won all three series games, by 4-1-28 points.
Betting Week 14
By Bodog
The Denver Broncos may have finally hit on that winning formula: Fire your coach. Josh McDaniels was let go after less than two seasons, the last straw coming Sunday when the Broncos lost 10-6 to the Kansas City Chiefs – although Denver did put up a good fight as a 9-point puppy. Both the Dallas Cowboys (Wade Phillips) and the Minnesota Vikings (Brad Childress) won and covered after firing their coaches earlier this year. The Broncos have a very good chance of doing the same this week in Glendale, one of five stops on this week’s football betting preview.
N.Y. Giants at Minnesota
The story, as usual, is about Brett Favre. He’s expected to suit up despite suffering a sprained SC joint in his shoulder against the Buffalo Bills (+5 away). Tarvaris Jackson played most of that game and won 38-14 as Minnesota improved to 2-0 SU and ATS under interim coach Leslie Frazier. But how will the Vikings do against a real opponent? All five of their victories this year are against losing teams, while the Giants are living large at 8-4 SU (6-6 ATS), powered by one of the most fearsome pass defenses in the NFL. Favre (10 TDs, 18 INTs, 21 sacks) might not have anything left to sprain after this contest.
Denver at Arizona
McDaniels is a wizard when it comes to offense, but the Broncos are without a doubt one of the worst defensive teams in the league. That’s partly because of injuries and partly because McDaniels let defensive coordinator Mike Nolan leave for Miami during the offseason. Running backs coach Eric Studesville takes over as interim coach this week. He might not have the expertise to fix the defense, but the Broncos probably won’t be tested much by the Cardinals (3-9 SU and ATS). They might have to rush rookie QB John Skelton into duty with Derek Anderson (concussion) still under evaluation and Max Hall (dislocated shoulder) on injured reserve. Watch for fresh NFL odds as this situation is resolved.
Philadelphia at Dallas
The Cowboys (4-8 SU, 5-7 ATS) have covered all four of their games with Jason Garrett as their interim coach, winning three times – including last week in overtime against the Colts (–5.5 at home). Jon Kitna has seven TD passes and just two picks during this span, and Garrett has allowed Tashard Choice (4.2 yards per carry) to take his rightful place ahead of Marion Barber (3.1 yards) on the depth chart. The Cowboys are getting the full 3.5 points against the Eagles (8-4 SU, 6-6 ATS), who are 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four games. The OVER is a combined 18-6 for these two NFC East rivals.
Week 14 Division Matchups
By Kevin Rogers
As the regular season winds down over the next four weeks, the frequency of division matchups increases with six contests on Sunday afternoon. The Jets look to bounce back from Monday's embarrassing loss to the Patriots as the Dolphins invade the new Meadowlands, while the Packers and Falcons try to avoid getting tripped up on the road. We'll start at Heinz Field as Pittsburgh attempts for its third 10-win season in four years under Mike Tomlin.
Bengals at Steelers (-8½, 39½)
Pittsburgh rallied late on Sunday night to knock off Baltimore in a huge divisional win to grab a one-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. The Steelers look to capitalize off that victory as they dysfunctional Bengals head to western Pennsylvania. Cincinnati threw away another game in the fourth quarter with a 34-30 loss to New Orleans.
The Steelers begin a three-game homestand at Heinz Field, as Pittsburgh is 3-2 SU/ATS at home with losses to Baltimore and New England. Pittsburgh owns a 2-5 ATS mark since the start of 2009 as a favorite of eight points or more, but is 4-2 ATS as home 'chalk' of seven points or more since 2007. The Steelers look for the season sweep over the Bengals after a 27-21 Monday night victory at Paul Brown Stadium in Week 9 as five-point favorites.
The Bengals are riding a nine-game losing streak since a 2-1 start, while going 'over' the total six times in this cold stretch. Cincinnati has dropped six games by seven points or less, including three on the road. The Bengals have managed covers as 6 ½-point 'dogs to the Saints and Colts, but Marvin Lewis' squad is just 3-5 ATS when receiving points this season.
Packers (-6½, 46½) at Lions
Green Bay is right in the middle of a loaded NFC playoff race at 8-4, sitting within two games of Chicago, Atlanta, New Orleans, N.Y. Giants, and Philadelphia. Unfortunately, one of these teams will not qualify for the postseason as the NFC West will take up one of the spots. The Packers go for their sixth win in seven tries as they make trip to Ford Field to battle the 2-10 Lions.
Detroit picked up a cover as five-point home underdogs in a 24-20 loss to Chicago last Sunday, improving the Lions to 8-4 ATS. The Lions have lost five straight games, but are in involved in wild games with 'overs' in eight of the last nine contests. Winning at home in this series has been a tough task as the Lions have lost each of the previous four meetings with the Packers at Ford Field since 2006.
Despite sitting one game behind Chicago in the NFC North, Green Bay's four losses have come by three points each, including three defeats on the final play of the game. The offense has been dynamic even though feature running back Ryan Grant was placed on IR after the opening week victory at Philadelphia. The Packers have tallied 31 points or more in three of the last four weeks, as they have covered five of the last six games. Something will have to give in the totals department as Green Bay is a perfect 6-0 to the 'under' on the road, while Detroit is 6-0 to the 'over' at home.
Falcons (-7½, 42) at Panthers
The top team in the NFC looks to stay hot, facing the worst team in the league as Atlanta heads to Carolina. The Falcons rallied for a 28-24 victory at Tampa Bay last week to pick up the crucial tiebreaker and third division victory. The Panthers squandered an early 14-0 lead in a 31-14 at Seattle, the eighth time Carolina has been held to 14 points or less.
Atlanta owns the inside track for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs, which would be the first occurrence in franchise history. Both of Atlanta's losses this season have come on the road at Pittsburgh and Philadelphia, while covering three of four games as away favorites. The Falcons have been a strong 'over' play of late, cashing in six of their previous seven contests. Matt Ryan is winless in two trips to Charlotte, with the Falcons losing the two games by a combined score of 52-28.
The Panthers can't get out of their own way as they have compiled a 1-11 record, while covering just three times. Carolina's offense ranks at the bottom of the league with 12 ppg, as the Panthers have been held to single-digits four times at home. John Fox's team has one realistic shot at a win the rest of the season, hosting the 3-9 Cardinals next week.
Seahawks at 49ers (-5½, 41½)
The NFC West race will likely come down to the end, but that doesn't make it an exciting finish. St. Louis and Seattle enter Sunday's action at 6-6, while San Francisco is still technically hanging around at 4-8 with games left against the co-division leaders. The Niners will be looking to avenge an opening week loss at Qwest Field, while the Seahawks attempt to win back-to-back games for the second time this season.
San Francisco has flipped out one Smith (Troy) for another (Alex) at quarterback as the top pick of the 2005 draft is back under center for the Niners. Alex Smith hasn't started since a Week 7 overtime loss at Carolina, while going 1-6 as a starter this season. The Niners are again without running back Frank Gore, as San Francisco is 0-4 ATS as a favorite at Candlestick Park.
Seattle rallied for a 17-point victory over Carolina last Sunday to climb back to .500, but the road doesn't get easier the next three weeks with games against Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and St. Louis. The best play for the Seahawks recently has been the 'over,' hitting in five straight games. The only concern for Seattle this week is 0-9 SU/ATS mark the Seahawks have compiled since 2008 on the road off a win.
Dolphins at Jets (-5½, 40)
New York hopes to put Monday's massacre at New England behind them as the Jets return home to host the Dolphins. The 42-point loss by the Jets was their worst since a 45-3 setback to the Dolphins in 1986, as Rex Ryan's club tries to pull off a season sweep of Miami. The 'Fins have been the ultimate road/home dichotomy with a 5-1 record on the highway, compared to a 1-5 mark at Sun Life Stadium.
The Jets haven't lost back-to-back games all season, but are just 2-4 ATS the last six games. Three of their four wins since the bye week have come in the final minute of regulation or in overtime, all against teams that sit at .500 or below. New York held off Miami, 31-23 as a one-point road favorite in Week 3, as Mark Sanchez tossed three touchdown passes.
The Dolphins are as inconsistent as anybody by going 4-0 SU/ATS following a loss since a Week 4 Monday night defeat to the Patriots. Miami's road success is very odd for a team sitting at 6-6, but Tony Sparano is 13-4 ATS as an away underdog since arriving with the Dolphins in 2008. The Dolphins are expected to get wide receiver Brandon Marshall back in the lineup on Sunday after missing the last two games with a hamstring injury.
Chiefs at Chargers (-7, 46½)
It's a must-win spot for San Diego after the Bolts were run out at home by the Raiders last Sunday, 28-13 as 12 ½-point favorites. The Chargers look to improve on a 1-3 record inside the AFC West as the potentially short-handed Chiefs head to Southern California. Kansas City sits atop the division at 8-4, but the Chiefs try to avoid a third road divisional defeat.
Matt Cassel is listed as questionable for this Sunday after getting an appendectomy on Wednesday, possibly meaning that either Tyler Palko or Brodie Croyle will get the start at quarterback for the Chiefs. The one thing Kansas City can exploit is a San Diego rush defense that allowed 251 yards to Oakland, as the Chiefs are averaging a league-best 175 yards a game. The Chiefs are 2-4 ATS the last six weeks after failing to cover in a 10-6 victory over the Broncos as nine-point 'chalk.'
The Chargers fell short in a 21-14 loss at Arrowhead Stadium in the Monday night opener, even though San Diego outgained Kansas City by nearly 200 yards. San Diego is still a strong December team despite the Oakland loss, going 18-1 SU overall and 6-3-1 ATS at home since 2006. The Chargers have not been swept by the Chiefs since 2003, back when Drew Brees was the starting quarterback for San Diego.
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NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 14
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (+7.5)
Why Falcons cover: Carolina is last in the league in scoring and starting quarterback Jimmy Clausen ranks near the bottom of the NFL in many major passing categories, including passing yards and completion percentage.
Why Panthers cover: Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (42.5): Under is 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Carolina.
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-9)
Why Bengals cover: Pittsburgh's offense is banged up. Ben Roethlisberger will play with a face shield after having surgery to repair a broken nose while tight end Heath Miller is out with a concussion and right tackle Flozell Adams is unlikely to play due to an ankle injury. They also lost punter Daniel Sepelveda for the season last week.
Why Steelers cover: The favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. The Bengals are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings
Total (39.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Pittsburgh.
New York Giants at Vikings Minnesota (+1)
Why Giants cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. They could get receivers Hakeem Nicks and Steve Smith back from injury.
Why Vikings cover: They are 2-0 straight up and ATS since Leslie Frazier took over as head coach from the fired Brad Childress. Eli Manning has thrown two touchdowns and nine interceptions in four career starts against Minnesota.
Total (43): Over is 5-2 in the Giants' last seven road games and 5-2 in their last seven games overall.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (+6.5)
Why Packers cover: They're 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Detroit. The favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Lions cover: They covered by 12.5-points against the Packers in Week 4. Green Bay's defense took another blow by losing defensive end Cullen Jenkins to a calf injury and possibly Charles Woodson with a sprained ankle.
Total (47): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Detroit.
Oakland Raiders at Jacksonville Jaguars (-4.5)
Why Raiders cover: Oakland is coming off an upset of San Diego and has a 4-2 ATS mark on the road this season.
Why Jaguars cover: The favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (43): Over is 5-1 in the Jaguars' last six games.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Washington Redskins (+1)
Why Buccaneers cover: They're 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Washington already has the NFL's worst defense and will be without defensive tackle Albert Haynesworth, who was suspended for the season this week.
Why Redskins cover: Tampa Bay will be without cornerback Aqib Talib, who was tied for second in the league with six interceptions, due to a torn hip tendon that will cost him the remainder of the season.
Total (41): Under is 7-3 in the Buccaneers' last 10 road games and 13-6 in their last 19 games overall.
Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-1)
Why Browns cover: Buffalo's offensive line is banged up and their defense is allowing a league-high 170.9 yards per game on the ground this season.
Why Bills cover: Cleveland will start Jake Delhomme, who is averaging 6.1 yards per completion with two touchdowns and six interception while amassing a meager 65.6 percent quarterback rating this season.
Total (39.5): Over is 4-1 in the Browns' last five road games and 6-1 in their last seven games overall.
St. Louis Rams at New Orleans Saints (-9.5)
Why Rams cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New Orleans. The road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Saints cover: Chris Ivory has sparked the Saints' run game by rushing for 254 yards and five touchdowns in the last three games. He gets to test a Rams' defense that is allowing 4.5 yards per carry to opposing backs.
Total (47): Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
Why Seahawks cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. The underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why 49ers cover: They will reinsert Alex Smith at quarterback, who they say knows the playbook better than Troy Smith and allows them to make easier in-game adjustments. Seattle could be without two of their top wide receivers with Mike Williams and Ben Obomanu both battling injuries.
Total (41.5): Under is 6-2-1 in the last nine meetings.
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-5.5)
Why Dolphins cover: The road team is 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight meetings. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. New York's secondary has been decimated by injuries.
Why Jets cover: Quarterback Chad Henne's inconsistent play is just one reason Miami is one of the lowest scoring teams in the AFC, averaging only 17.9 points per game.
Total (41): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Denver Broncos at Arizona Cardinals (+5.5)
Why Broncos cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. With Derek Anderson battling a concussion and Max Hall out for the season, unproven quarterback John Skelton will likely start for Arizona on Sunday.
Why Cardinals cover: The Broncos have the league's second-worst rush defense and with Arizona's quarterback situation up in the air, expect a heavy dose of the run game to take pressure off whomever takes the snaps on Sunday. Denver is coming off a dramatic week in which the team fired head coach Josh McDaniels.
Total (42): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
Kansas City Chiefs at San Diego Chargers (-7)
Why Chiefs cover: Their rush game averages an NFL-best 175.2 yards per game and gets to face a San Diego defense that allowed the Raiders to run for 251 yards last week.
Why Chargers cover: The Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in San Diego. Matt Cassel will miss this game after undergoing an appendectomy Wednesday.
Total (46.5): Over is 4-0 in the Chiefs' last four road games.
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears (+3)
Why Patriots cover: They have the best offense in the league and have had no problem putting up big points against tough defenses like Miami, Pittsburgh and the Jets.
Why Bears cover: They have been protecting the football on offense and playing solid defense during their five-game winning streak (3-1-1 ATS). The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
Total (41): Over is 12-2 in the Patriots' last 14 games.
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (+3.5)
Why Eagles cover: Cornerback Asante Samuel and defensive end Juqua Parker are expected to return from injury. Michael Vick faces the league's 28th ranked pass defense.
Why Cowboys cover: They are 4-0 ATS and averaging 33.3 points per game since offensive coordinator Jason Garrett took over as head coach from Wade Phillips.
Total (50.5): Over is 4-0 in the Eagles' last four road games and 7-0 in the Cowboys' last seven home games.
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans (+3)
Why Ravens cover: Their defense is holding opponents to only 16.8 points per game while Houston's defense has been terrible all season and is seemingly getting worse.
Why Texans cover: Baltimore's offensive line has had trouble protecting Joe Flacco, who has been sacked 11 times in their last three games.
Total (45.5): Over is 4-1 in the Texans' last five games.
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions NFL Betting Preview
By Jeff Mattingly
Green Bay travels to Detroit for its final divisional road game of the year against the Lions and it also serves as the first of back-to-back road contests for the team. The Packers are also looking to win a franchise-record 11th straight over the Lions on Sunday, but coach Mike McCarthy is simply focused on getting his team to the 10-win mark. “Like Mike likes to say, we really can’t think about the postseason until you win 10,” quarterback Aaron Rodgers stated. “So the immediate goal is going to Detroit and getting the win.” The squad’s current 10-game win streak over Sunday’s opponent is the longest in the series in over 50 years, dating back to Detroit’s 11-game winning streak from 1949-54. Green Bay is 2-0 ATS this year as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points.
The Packers have placed a great emphasis on winning divisional games under McCarthy, posting a 20-8 mark against NFC North opponents, which is the third-best such mark in the NFL behind only San Diego (21-7) and New England (21-7). Green Bay has also been very successful in playing games indoors, recording a 10-4 record since the start of the 2006 season. The offense has averaged 378.3 yards of total offense and 30.4 points in 14 dome games over that span compared to 356.1 yards per game and 24.1 points per game in outdoor contests. Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 5-0 in his career against Detroit.
Detroit welcomes a divisional opponent to Ford Field for the second consecutive week and will look to even up the season series, dropping the first contest 28-26 at Lambeau Field. The Lions know that their defense will be key in possibly producing an upset on Sunday afternoon. “The key is the quarterback and their two marquee receivers, but they have enough offensive personnel that if you concentrate too much on any of those guys, the other guys can make you pay,” said coach Jim Schwartz. The stop unit has allowed Rodgers to complete 70.4 percent of his passes for 1,523 yards and 14 touchdowns in five games against him. Detroit is 5-1 ATS in home games this season.
The Lions are viewed as an up-and-coming squad and have been decimated by injuries, as quarterback Drew Stanton will be making his second straight start. The former Michigan State Spartan played relatively well in last week’s 24-20 loss to Chicago, but the offense gained just 49 yards in the second half. “We need to do a better job of finishing games,” said Schwartz. Detroit has lost six games by five or fewer points on the year.
Bettors may be quick to back the Packers due to their 23-11-1 ATS mark on the road, while the Lions are 4-9 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 to 10 points.
Gridiron Angles - Week 14
By Vince Akins
Patriots at Bears - The Bears are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since December 26, 1999 as a dog the week after a straight up win in which their completion percentage was at least ten points higher than their season-to-date average. The Bears are 0-9 OU (-5.3 ppg) since November 16, 1997 as a home dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Bears are 7-0 OU (12.4 ppg) since October 22, 1995 the week before playing on Monday Night on the road.
Browns at Bills - The Browns are 9-0-1 ATS (5.2 ppg) since January 1, 2006 when they punted 8+ times last game. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since September 08, 1991 within 3 of pick on the road the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (4.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Bills are 11-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since October 09, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-17.1 ppg) since November 25, 2001 versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win on the road. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-13.6 ppg) since November 12, 2006 the week after a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers.
Broncos at Cardinals - The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-19.3 ppg) since November 22, 2001 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Broncos are 0-7-1 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 31, 2004 versus any team with the same record, after playing on the road. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-19.1 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Cardinals are 7-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since October 17, 1993 within 3 of pick when they lost and failed to cover their last three games. The Broncos are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since October 02, 2005 when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 11, 2007 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.
Chiefs at Chargers - The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since December 17, 2000 as a dog vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent. The Chargers are 6-0 ATS (11.2 ppg) since September 24, 1989 at home after a home game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Chiefs are 9-0 OU (12.6 ppg) since September 24, 2000 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average at home. The Chargers are 0-7 OU (-9.4 ppg) since October 29, 1989 vs a team they lost to as a favorite in their first match-up.
Eagles at Cowboys - The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (14.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 the week after a game in which they allowed at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since November 22, 1990 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-8.4 ppg) since October 29, 2000 at home the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 7-0 OU (15.9 ppg) since September 09, 1991 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Seahawks at 49ers - The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-11.0 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-11 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since December 16, 2007 after a straight up win at home. The 49ers are 8-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 21, 2008 at home between away games. The Seahawks are 7-0 OU (9.2 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a road dog after a win in which they were losing at the half. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-12.2 ppg) since October 07, 2007 at home the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays as a dog.
Raiders at Jaguars - The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-16.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 when they led by 14+ at half last game and covered by at least a TD. The Jaguars are 0-6 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since September 28, 2008 as a home favorite after playing as a dog. The Raiders are 7-0 OU (12.0 ppg) since September 15, 2002 on the road when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Jaguars are 8-0 OU (8.9 ppg) since November 05, 2006 the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 8-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a home favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Dolphins at Jets - The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since December 23, 2007 when facing a divisional opponent that has a better record. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS (-5.8 ppg) since October 16, 2005 on the road the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. The Jets are 0-6 ATS (-9.4 ppg) since December 07, 2003 vs a team they beat as a dog in their first match-up. The Jets are 0-6-1 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since December 10, 2006 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent.
Packers at Lions - The Packers are 7-0 ATS (13.0 ppg) since September 24, 2006 on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Lions are 6-0-1 ATS (6.3 ppg) since December 02, 2001 when they got swept last week at home as a dog. The Lions are 0-7 OU (-6.4 ppg) since October 25, 1998 as a home dog vs a divisional opponent with non-divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
Falcons at Panthers - The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-24.8 ppg) since September 01, 1996 as a road favorite when facing a divisional opponent for the first time of the season. The Panthers are 0-8 ATS (-10.6 ppg) since December 2006, when they led at half last game and failed to cover. The Panthers are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since October 07, 2001 after a loss as a dog against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the half. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-8.7 ppg) since November 21, 2004 on the road off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Falcons are 0-6 OU (-14.5 ppg) since November 06, 2005 on the road when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Panthers are 0-7-1 OU (-9.5 ppg) since November 19, 2006 at home when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date.
Buccaneers at Redskins - The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-8.5 ppg) since December 08, 2002 as a home favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Redskins are 0-7 ATS (-10.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a home favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since December 05, 2004 as a favorite versus any team with more wins. The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-10.6 ppg) since December 30, 2007 as a home favorite.
Rams at Saints - The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-14.0 ppg) since September 23, 2007 as a dog the week after in which they had at least 3 fewer penalties than their season-to-date average. The Rams are 0-8 ATS (-13.9 ppg) since September 23, 2001 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Saints are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since October 27, 2002 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 ppg) since October 29, 1989 as a 7+ favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. The Saints are 7-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since September 11, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35.
Bengals at Steelers - The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since November 09, 2003 as a home 7+ favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Steelers are 6-0 ATS (9.4 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-9.8 ppg) since October 08, 1995 on the road the week after in which they benefited from 100+ yards of penalties. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since October 29, 2001 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent before playing at home.
Giants at Vikings - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (13.4 ppg) since December 22, 2002 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since December 04, 2005 within 3 of pick after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Vikings are 12-0 ATS (13.5 ppg) since November 25, 1990 within 3 of pick at home when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-11 ATS (-13.7 ppg) since November 24, 1991 when they won by 14+ last game and had less than two sacks. The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since October 28, 2001 within 3 of pick when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Vikings are 8-0 ATS (14.6 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 9-0 OU (10.2 ppg) since October 21, 2007 when they won by 21+ points last week. The Giants are 8-0 OU (12.5 ppg) since November 09, 2008 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Vikings are 0-9 OU (-10.2 ppg) since October 31, 1999 as a favorite when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (6.0 ppg) since September 25, 2005 at home when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Vikings are 0-6 OU (-7.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a favorite the week after scoring 34+ points at home.
Ravens at Texans - The Ravens are 9-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Ravens are 6-0-2 ATS (9.4 ppg) since November 22, 1998 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Ravens are 9-0 OU (14.9 ppg) since November 10, 1996 after a loss at home in which they were winning at the half. The Texans are 9-0 OU (11.3 ppg) since December 18, 2005 within 3 of pick at home after a straight up loss.
Total Talk - Week 14
By Chris David
Week 13 Recap
The ‘over’ went 9-7 last week, boosting the season total to 107-83-2 (56%). And Thursday’s game between the Colts and Titans went ‘over’ the number, so the sportsbooks are in the hole once again. With just four weeks of action left, the main theme for this week and probably the rest of the season will be weather. Snow, rain and gusty conditions are on tap and we’re finally starting to see totals listed under 40 or less. Stay abreast with the WEATHER UPDATES here.
System Play
Over Saints-Rams - Check out Page 21 of the Football Forecast.
It’s already 1-0 this season and we have three opportunities next week as well.
Second Go ‘Round
Three divisional games take place this week where the first meeting sailed ‘over’ the number. Will it be a déjà vu weekend or should we go the other way and play ‘under’ the number?
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh: The Steelers held off the Bengals 27-21 on a MNF affair in early October. Horrible weather expected here and the number should continue to dip. Four of the last five have gone ‘over’ the number but none of those contests were played in December.
Green Bay at Detroit: The Packers held off the Lions 28-24 in Week 4 at home and now they’ll play at Ford Field, which is known to have high scoring affairs (6-0 to the ‘over’). The Lions will go with Drew Stanton at QB again and that’s always an iffy situation. Plus, Green Bay’s defense is getting a lot better as the season goes, surrendering 9.2 points per game in the last five.
Miami at N.Y. Jets: Bad weather expected in New Jersey with lots of rain. Despite the forecast, it’s hard to ignore the fact that the ‘over’ has cashed in three straight in this series, including the Jets 31-23 road win over the Dolphins on Sept. 26. New York only mustered up three points in a loss to New England last Monday, but they averaged 26.3 PPG in the previous four. Miami’s offense has been inconsistent all season and it was evident in last week’s home loss to Cleveland (10-13).
Over-Easy
Have gamblers “Missed the Boat” on a pair of ‘over’ teams? The Patriots and Cowboys have both watched 10 of their 12 games go ‘over’ the number this season. Does the tide turn this Sunday?
New England at Chicago: This could be the week that the Pats see the ‘under’ come rolling in and a handful of sharp bettors have a nice middle opportunity. The number opened offshore at 44 and has dipped as low as 37 ½ at some outfits. The weather is expected to be rough, possible snow showers and gusty winds. Even though Chicago has watched its last two games go ‘over’ the total, the ‘under’ started the season with an 8-2 run. The Bears are allowing 16 PPG at Soldier Field this season but they’ll be facing a New England attack that posted 39, 31, 45 and 45 points the last four weeks.
Dallas vs. Philadelphia: This is the highest total (51) on the board and it’s hard to make a case for the ‘under’ here. The Eagles (23.4 PPG) and Cowboys (28 PPG) have both been lit up defensively, plus they have the playmakers on offense to score quickly. The Cowboys have scored 33, 35, 27 and 38 points since the coaching change in “Big D.” And Philadelphia has put up 26 points or more in five of six on the road, which has helped the ‘over’ go 5-1 for the Birds. Last season, the two regular season meetings saw the total 1-1.
Under the Lights
Baltimore and Houston conclude the Week 14 festivities on Monday from Reliant Stadium. This particular matchup has a total hovering between 45 and 46 points, but that number will likely go up with public money. The Ravens’ offense (21.7 PPG) has the talent to put up points, yet that hasn’t been the case lately. The unit has scored a combined 30 points the last two weeks albeit against quality defensive stoppers in the Bucs and Steelers. This Monday, QB Joe Flacco and the Ravens face the Texans, who are allowing 26.8 PPG. Every opponent except for one has managed to put up at least 24 points on Houston this season and the lone team to not accomplish the feat was Tennessee, who had a third-string QB behind the controls. While the Texans defense is atrocious, the offense quickly makes you forget about it. Houston is averaging 24 PPG and the attack will be tested against a Baltimore defense (15.9 PPG) that has ripped up weaker teams on the road. Except for losses to the Patriots (23) and Falcons (26), the Ravens have given up 15 or less in the other four road affairs, which has produced a 4-2 ‘under’ record.
Fearless Predictions
Alright folks…we’re back! The Best Bets swept the board last week, bringing us to 8-7 (+30) on the season. And the three-team teaser didn’t even need the points. That number stands at 4-3 (+100), which puts us into the black on the season (+130). Four weeks before the playoffs and we’re looking to stay hot. Let’s do this!
Best Over: Rams-Saints 47
Best Under: Browns-Bills 39.5
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over Rams-Saints 38
Under Browns-Bills 48.5
Under Bengals-Steelers 49.5
vegasinsider.com
Tips and Trends
New England Patriots at Chicago Bears
PATRIOTS: (-3, O/U 41) New England is coming off their finest regular season performance in quite some time, a dominating 45-3 SU win over the Jets. New England is 10-2 SU, tied with the Atlanta for the best record in the entire NFL. The Patriots have lost both of their games this year on the road, where they are 4-2 SU. The Patriots are 7-4-1 ATS this year, including 4-2 ATS on the road. Hew England is 4-3-1 ATS as a favorite less than 7 PTS this season. QB Tom Brady is on the short list for NFL MVP this year. Brady has thrown for more than 3,000 YDS this year, along with 27 TD's against only 4 INT's. Brady leads all NFL Quarterbacks with a 109.5 QB Rating this season. New England is averaging 31.6 PPG this year, easily the most in the NFL. The Patriots are coming off their best performance of the season, and they will need to play another outstanding game to beat the gritty Bears on the road tonight. The Patriots are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. New England is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. The Patriots are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall. The Patriots are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. New England is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Patriots are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
Over is 12-2 in Patriots last 14 games overall.
Key Injuries - G Stephen Neal (shoulder) is out.
Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
BEARS: Chicago simply keeps winning, despite so many experts trying to predict their demise. The Bears are 9-3 SU, the 2nd best record in the NFC. Chicago has a 1 game lead over Green Bay in the NFC North. The Bears have won their past 5 games SU, alternating both great offensive and defensive performances. Chicago is 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS at home this season. The Bears are 2-0 both SU and ATS as the listed home underdog this year. Chicago is averaging just 300 YPG this year, 4th fewest in the NFL. Despite this, QB Jay Cutler has thrown for more than 2,500 YDS and 17 TD's this year, against 10 INT's. RB Matt Forte has more than 1,100 total YDS this season, along with 8 TD's. Chicago has played outstanding defense all season long, allowing just 16 PPG, 3rd best in the NFL. The Bears are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on grass. The Bears are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog. Chicago is 3-8-1 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss. The Bears are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games played in December.
Bears are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as the listed underdog.
Under is 11-3 last 14 games played on grass.
Key Injuries - LB Pisa Tinoisamoa (knee) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 14
Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys
EAGLES: (-3.5 O/U 50.5) Philadelphia has won 4 of their past 5 games, and QB Michael Vick appears to be on his way to NFL MVP and the Pro Bowl. Vick has accumulated more than 2,700 total YDS in his time as starting QB, along with 21 TD's. Since Vick became starter, the Eagles have arguably the most dangerous offense in the NFL. Philadelphia is averaging 28.7 PPG and 400 YPG, 2nd and 1st respectively in the NFL. The Eagles have scored at least 26 PTS in each of their past 5 games. The Eagles are 8-4 SU and 6-6 ATS overall this year. The Eagles are 4-2 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season. Philadelphia has revenge on their minds, as they've lost the past 3 games both SU and ATS to Dallas. The Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played in December. Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against the NFC. Philadelphia is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against a team with a losing home record. The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Eagles are 6-2 ATS last 8 games as a road favorite.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games overall.
Key Injuries - CB Asante Samuel (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 24
COWBOYS: Dallas has won 3 of their past 4 games SU, and remain the most dangerous 4-8 SU team in the NFL. The Cowboys have responded to the coaching change, and are finally playing up to their talent base. The Cowboys beat the Peyton Manning led Colts on the road as a 5.5 underdog in their most recent game. Dallas is 5-7 ATS this year, including 4-2 ATS as the listed underdog. The Cowboys are just 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS at home this year. Dallas is averaging 24.5 PPG this year, 10th best in the NFL. QB Jon Kitna has done a masterful job leading the Cowboys this year, as he's completed 65% of his passes with 11 TD's. 4 different WR's have more 4 or more TD's this year, led by Dez Bryant and his 6 TD's. The Cowboys have given up 65 PTS in their past 2 games combined, but that was against top ranked offenses Indianapolis and New Orleans. The Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played on fieldturf. Dallas is 17-4 ATS in their last 21 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Dallas is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games played in December.
Cowboys are 4-0 ATS last 4 games overall.
Over is 8-3 last 11 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - TE Jason Witten (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)