Tech Trends - Week 15
By Bruce Marshall
SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO...Norv’s time of year, as Bolts 22-10-1 vs. line from 8th week in reg. season onward since ‘07. Norv 5-1 in role TY. Singletary, however, 9-2 his last 11 as dog (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Norv, based on team trends.
KANSAS CITY at ST. LOUIS... Despite loss at Saints, Rams have still covered 9 of last 12, including 4 of last 5 at Dome. Chiefs "over" their four of last five on road, and Rams "over" 3-2 last 5 after extended "under" spell for Spagnuolo prior (15-8-1 "under" previous 24). Tech edge-slight to Rams and "over, based on team and totals" trends.
HOUSTON at TENNESSEE... Titans got the back door of back door covers on Thursday vs. Colts, their first after 5 straight spread losses, but are still only 1-5 vs. line last 6 on board. Houston only 2-7 vs. number itself last 9 on board, but one of those was a 20-0 win over Titans (with Rusty Smith at QB). Kubiak has now also won and covered 3 of last 4 vs. Fisher after Titans had won and covered previous five meetings. Kubiak also "over" 11-4 last 15 since late LY. Tech edge-Texans and "over," based on team and Kubiak "totals" trends.
JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS... Interestingly, no team has swept both pointspread decisions any season between these two since the current AFC South wad formed in 2002, and these two were placed together. Jags won and covered first meeting TY. Jags, however, have covered last 3 and 5 of last 6 meetings at Indy in what had been a visitor-oriented series until the first game this season (road team had covered last 6). Colts no covers last 3 at home TY or 4 of last 5 overall after allowing Titans in the back door on Thursday. Del Rio has covered his last 6 games in ‘10. "Overs" 5 -1 last 6 meetings, Jags "over" 9-4 last 13 since late LY, Colts "over" 12-5 last 17 reg.-season games after 30-28 win at Tennessee. Tech edge-Jags and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
ARIZONA at CAROLINA... Panthers 0-2 as chalk TY and 1-6 vs. number as host TY. Cards "over" 8-4-1 TY and 10-4-1 last 14 since late ‘09, while Panthers "over" 4-0-1 last 5 after extended "under" run prior. Hard to believe this was an NFC playoff game just two years ago. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
CLEVELAND at CINCINNATI... Cincy 2-8 vs. line last 10 in 2010. Browns have covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Browns "over" 9-5 last 14 since late ‘09. Mangini 8-6-1 vs. line away for Browns since LY. If Marvin Lewis favored note 0-3 record in role at home TY, 0-9 as home chalk since ‘09. Tech edge-Browns and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
BUFFALO at MIAMI... Dolphins continue formful pattern, 2-4 vs. line at home TY, now 5-14 last 19 vs. spread as host for Sparano. Miami also "over" 11-3 last 14 as host. Sparano, however, is 4-1 SU and vs. line against Bills. Bills also "over" 4-1 as visitor TY. Tech edge-"Over" and Bills, based on Dolphins’ home trends.
PHILADELPHIA at NY GIANTS... Birds dominating lately, winning and covering last 5 meetings. Surprisingly, Andy Reid 0-2 as dog TY and 1-6 in role since LY in what was once a very good role for him. Reid "over" 9-4 TY and 21-10 last 31 on board since late ‘08. Coughlin "over" 17-11 since ‘09. Tech edge-Eagles and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.
WASHINGTON at DALLAS... Jerry Jones has covered five straight since Jason Garrett was promoted to HC role. Meanwhile, The Shan has lost 5 of last 6 TY (2-4 vs. line in those games). Skins have covered 6 of last 8 meetings, and last four "under" in series. Although Dallas "over" last 9 in 2010. Tech edge-Cowboys and "over," based on recent trends.
DETROIT at TAMPA BAY... Former NFC Central rivals. Bucs amazingly have covered just once at home TY (1-4-1) and are just 2-11-1 vs. number as host since Raheem Morris arrived LY. Lions surprising 10-3 vs. line this season, and "over" 11-5-1 last 17 since late LY. Tech edge-Lions and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.
NEW ORLEANS at BALTIMORE... Saints only 9-16-1 vs. points their last 26 on board. Surprisingly, Saints also just 2-7 vs. number last nine as reg.-season visitor. John Harbaugh "under" 11-6 last 17 at home. Tech edge-slight to Ravens and "under," based on team trends.
ATLANTA at SEATTLE... Pete Carroll 4-2 vs. line a home TY, and Seahawks 11-5 vs. spread last 16 at Qwest Field. Carroll also "over" 9-3-1 TY, but only 4-4 as dog. Atlanta has covered last 5 in 2010, 9-4 overall vs. line TY, and Mike Smith "over" 10-5-1 last 16 as visitor. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
DENVER at OAKLAND... Broncos destroyed by Raiders 59-14 in last meeting. Note, however, that road team has won and covered last 5 meetings, with Denver romping in last two at Coliseum. Now, though, they try with a third different coach in three years. Denver "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 14-4 last 18 on board. Broncos also just 7-16 their last 23 on board since mid ‘09. Raiders 2-2 as home chalk TY but 2-12 last 14 in role. Series "over" 5-2 last seven meetings. Tech edge-Broncos and "over," based on series and "totals" trends.
NY JETS at PITTSBURGH... Teams haven’t met since ‘07. Jets 2-5 vs. line last 7 TY, but 2-1 as dog and 7-4 as dog for Rex Ryan since LY. Steel 5-4 as chalk TY but just 9-15 last 24 in role. Steel home "over" trend has faded lately but Jets "over" 9-4 TY and "over" 13-5 last 18 since late ‘09. Tech edge-"Over," based on "totals" trends.
GREEN BAY at NEW ENGLAND... Once upon a time this was a Super Bowl matchup (SB XXXI). Note Pack’s 17-5 mark last 22 as dog since late ‘06 (1-1 in role TY). Belichick "over" 11-2 TY and 13-2 last 15 since late ‘09, though Pack "under" 9-4 TY. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Packers, based on "totals" and team trends.
CHICAGO at MINNESOTA... Bears 5-1 SU and 3-2-1 vs. line since bye week, Vikings 2-1 SU and vs. line for Leslie Frazier. Vikes 4-1 SU and vs. line last 5 as series host, but were beaten 27-13 at Chicago last month. Bears "under" 7-4-2 TY, 17-10-2 "under" since ‘09. Tech edge-Bears and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 15
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-5.5)
Why Bills cover: They are 6-1-1 ATS since their Week 6 bye and are averaging 26.8 points per game on the road during that stretch.
Why Dolphins cover: The Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Miami. The home team is 5-2-1 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two clubs.
Total (41): The over is 4-1 in the Bills' last five road games and 10-3-1 in the Dolphins' last 14 home games.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1)
Why Browns cover: They're 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in the last seven meetings. Colt McCoy, who’s much less turnover-prone than Jake Delhomme, is likely to return from his ankle injury.
Why Bengals cover: Quarterback Carson Palmer is 5-0 straight up at home against Cleveland during his career.
Total (40): The under is 4-1 in the last five times the Browns visited the Bengals.
Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
Why Lions cover: They're 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against the Bucs and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to Tampa Bay. The banged-up Bucs defense will be without Cody Grimm, Aqib Talib, Quincy Black and Gerald McCoy.
Why Buccaneers cover: The Lions typically struggle away from home and have only scored more than 20-points once in their last six games.
Total (42.5): The over is 8-2 in the Lions' last 10 games.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-4.5)
Why Jaguars cover: They're 5-1 ATS in their last six games at Indianapolis. The road team is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings in this series.
Why Colts cover: Peyton Manning, who is 13-5 straight up in his career against Jacksonville, will try and prevent the Jags from clinching the AFC South on his home turf.
Total (48.5): The over is 5-1 in the last six matchups between these two sides.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers (-2.5)
Why Cardinals cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games at Carolina. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups between these two sides while the road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Panthers cover: Last year they piled up 270 yards on the ground against Arizona and the Cards are allowing 143.3 yards per game rushing this season.
Total (38): Neither team is capable of moving the ball on offense. This could be a battle of field goal kickers.
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens (-1)
Why Saints cover: Baltimore has struggled to cover the spread at home this season. The Ravens once heralded rushing attack is only averaging 3.5 yards per carry this season.
Why Ravens cover: They tend to step up against powerful offensive teams, having covered against Houston, Pittsburgh and Denver this season.
Total (43.5): Baltimore’s defense is not what it once was and the Saints' offense is one of the best in the league.
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-2.5)
Why Eagles cover: They're 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the G-Men and 4-1 ATS in their last five trips to New York. The road team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 meetings.
Why Giants cover: They have the speed on defense to contain Michael Vick and enough offense to exploit an Eagles defense that is allowing close to 24-points per game.
Total (46): The under is 11-3 in the last 14 games in New York between these two division rivals.
Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams (+1)
Why Chiefs cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Matt Cassel is likely to return from his appendectomy.
Why Rams cover: Steven Jackson could rack up big yardage on the ground against a Kansas City defense that has allowed 368 yards rushing in their past two games.
Total (): The over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings between these two clubs.
Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6)
Why Redskins cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings and 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas. The underdog is 20-6 ATS in their last 26 meetings. The road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Cowboys cover: They are perfect ATS since Jason Garrett took over as the head coach and are averaging 26.3 points per game with Jon Kitna at quarterback.
Total (45): Washington and Dallas combined for just 17 points the last time they met and the under in 4-0 in the series’ last four contests.
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans (-1)
Why Texans cover: Underdog is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 matchups. Their only win in the last seven weeks was against Tennessee, who they shut out 20-0 as 5-point favorites.
Why Titans cover: Houston's already terrible defense will be without defensive end Mario Williams who was put on injured reserve this week with a sports hernia.
Total (47.5): The over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tennessee.
Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (+6)
Why Falcons cover: Matt Ryan is averaging almost 250 passing yards with 13 touchdowns during their seven-game winning streak while Matt Hasselbeck has thrown eight interceptions in his last three games.
Why Seahawks cover: The underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Atlanta hasn't won in Seattle since 1997.
Total (44.5): The over is 3-0-1 in the Falcons' last four road games and 4-1-1 in the Seahawks' last six home games.
New York Jets at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6)
Why Jets cover: Pittsburgh is dominant against the run but their 23rd ranked pass defense can be beat and the Jets have the wide receivers to do it.
Why Steelers cover: The home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Mark Sanchez continues to look overmatched at times and New York's offense has only managed nine points in their last two games combined.
Total (36): The under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-6.5)
Why Broncos cover: They're 5-2 ATS in their last seven games at Oakland. The underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last nine games between the two sides and the road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
Why Raiders cover: Kyle Orton has struggled mightily under interim coach Eric Studesville and now has a sore throwing arm.
Total (44): The over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (NA)
Why Packers cover: The road team is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings. Green Bay has allowed just 53 points over its last six games.
Why Patriots cover: Aaron Rodgers suffered his second concussion of the season last week and if he is unable to go, Matt Flynn will start at quarterback for Green Bay.
Total (NA): Under is 7-0 in the Packers' last seven road games.
Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1.5)
Why Bears cover: With both Brett Favre and Tarvaris Jackson injured, rookie Joe Webb is likely to start at quarterback for Minnesota.
Why Vikings cover: The Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games at Minnesota.
Total (NA): Neither team has a spectacular offense and with the Vikings down to a third-string quarterback, this game could play under.
Week 15 Showdowns
By Kevin Rogers
For the exception of the Patriots in the AFC East, the other seven division races are up for grabs heading into Sunday's Week 15 card in the NFL. Six afternoon contests have major playoff implications including the Ravens hosting the Saints, while the Jets try to end their two-game skid in Pittsburgh. We'll start with an AFC South showdown in Indianapolis as the Colts look to hang onto their playoff lives with a victory.
Jaguars at Colts (-5, 48½)
Indianapolis isn't dead yet in the AFC South, entering Sunday's matchup with Jacksonville just one game back of the Jaguars. Peyton Manning rebounded from three of the worst games of his career with a three-touchdown effort in a 30-28 victory at Tennessee last Thursday to move the Colts to 7-6. Jacksonville travels to Lucas Oil Stadium going for its sixth win in seven tries after last Sunday's wild 38-31 home triumph over Oakland.
The Colts will be looking to avenge a 31-28 setback at Jacksonville in Week 4 as seven-point road favorites. Indianapolis has struggled to cover the number at home the last three opportunities against Dallas, San Diego, and Cincinnati. Despite all the injuries offensively, the Colts have managed to hit the 'over' in three of the last four games with the lone non-'over' being a 'push' against the Chargers in a 36-14 loss.
The Jaguars have turned in one of the best ATS marks in the league at 9-4, while covering six straight games. Jacksonville has definitely flown under the radar, but the Jags are an impressive 8-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in games which quarterback David Garrard has played wire-to-wire. The 'over' is a strong 5-1 in Jacksonville's six road games, while going 6-1 to the 'over' the last seven games overall.
Eagles at Giants (-2½, 46)
The co-leaders of the NFC East meet for the second time in five weeks with the division title on the line. If Philadelphia can pull off the road victory, the Eagles will be in a prime spot to win their first NFC East title since 2006 as Andy Reid's team would own the head-to-head tiebreaker. On the flip side, if the Giants can grab this win, New York would still need to win both of its final games at Green Bay and Washington to at least secure a playoff spot.
The Eagles beat the Giants, 27-17 at Lincoln Financial Field in Week 11 as 3 ½-point favorites. Philadelphia intercepted Eli Manning three times, while holding the Giants to just 61 yards on the ground. The Eagles' offense has scored at least 26 points in each of the last six games since Michael Vick's return from a rib injury. The 'under' against the Giants was the only game that was not an 'over' during the last nine games for the Eagles.
The Giants have gone through a whirlwind travel week after traveling from New Jersey to Kansas City to Detroit thanks to the horrible weather in the Midwest. New York took care of business at Ford Field over Minnesota, 21-3, the second straight game the Giants have held the opponent to seven points or less. The Giants own a 1-3 ATS mark the last four games as a home favorite, while going 5-7 ATS at home against division opponents since 2007.
Chiefs (-2, 43½) at Rams
The I-70 battle takes place at the Edward Jones Dome as the Missouri rivals are each in desperate need of a win to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Chiefs will get Matt Cassel back under center after missing last week's 31-0 loss at San Diego following an appendectomy. The Rams also look to bounce back from a 31-13 setback at New Orleans, but St. Louis is still tied atop the NFC West with the Seahawks at 6-7.
These two teams have similar resumes, as each club beat San Diego at home as underdogs, while losing close decisions at Oakland. Kansas City's offense can't be any worse than the 67-yard effort in last week's whitewashing at San Diego. The four previous road contests have been shootouts for Todd Haley's squad, including a 42-24 thumping at Seattle as short 'chalk.' The Chiefs knocked off the Rams in St. Louis in its last regular season meeting in 2006 with a 31-17 victory as 2 ½-point 'dogs.
The Rams are a solid 4-2 SU/ATS at home this season, a significant upgrade from the 1-15 campaign of last season. St. Louis is a perfect 3-0 ATS off a non-cover, while playing only its second home game since the start of November. The Rams' defense has been touched up a bit over the last four games, allowing at least 31 points three times, including in losses to the Saints and Falcons.
Saints at Ravens (-1½, 43½)
New Orleans and Baltimore are each coming off big wins last week as the two veteran clubs hook up at M&T Stadium. The Saints remain one game back of the Falcons in the NFC West despite at 10-3 record, while the Ravens trail the Steelers by one game in the AFC North. The question is whether or not Baltimore can slow down New Orleans' explosive offense.
The Ravens' defense was cruising during the first half of Monday's night wild win over the Texans in overtime. However, Houston scored 21 points in the second half to tie the game at 28, while the Texans accumulated 489 yards of offense. Baltimore has allowed 13 points or less in each of its past three home games, all finishing 'under' the total.
Since the embarrassing home loss to Cleveland in Week 7, New Orleans has reeled off six consecutive victories. The offense has returned to its elite level by scoring at least 30 points in each of the last five games, but failed to cover as favorites at Dallas and Cincinnati. The Saints will be looking to avenge a 35-22 home loss to the Ravens in Drew Brees' first season in New Orleans back in 2006.
Falcons (-6, 45) at Seahawks
Atlanta has the inside track on home-field advantage inside the NFC with an 11-2 mark, as the Falcons play their third straight road game at Seattle. Amazingly, the Seahawks still have an opportunity to not only win the NFC West, but also to host a playoff game at Qwest Field. Seattle returns home after getting thumped at San Francisco, 40-21 as 4 ½-point underdogs to fall to 6-7.
The Falcons took care of business against another weak opponent last Sunday with a 31-14 victory at Carolina, the seventh straight win for Mike Smith's team. Atlanta has helped out backers by covering five consecutive games, all as a favorite. The key for the Falcons is beating below .500 teams, going 6-0 SU and 5-1 ATS against these clubs.
The Seahawks have seen plenty of ups and downs this season, but their most success has been at home with a 4-2 mark. The only consistency for Pete Carroll's squad is the six straight 'overs,' while allowing 14 points or less in three home games against San Francisco, Carolina, and Arizona. However, the story hasn't been the same against better competition by giving up an average of 34.3 ppg against the Chargers, Giants, and Chiefs.
Jets at Steelers (-6, 36)
New York has been a disaster offensively the last two weeks by scoring a meager nine points in lossess to New England and Miami. The Jets' road doesn't get easier as they head to Heinz Field to battle a Pittsburgh squad that is staring at a potential first-round bye in the playoffs. The Steelers' offense was held out of the end zone in a 23-7 home victory over the Bengals, as Pittsburgh's defense returned a pair of interceptions for touchdowns.
The Jets are 8-0 when it scores at least a touchdown, while going 0-4 when getting not reaching the end zone. For the exception of New England's trouncing of New York two weeks ago, the Jets' defense has allowed 20 points or less 10 times this season. Since the bye week, the Jets have compiled a 2-5 ATS mark, although they have been listed as an underdog only once in this stretch.
The Steelers' defense has given up a total of 36 points in the last four games, all wins and all 'unders.' Pittsburgh's three losses have come to Baltimore, New Orleans, and New England, but the Patriots' loss was the only game in which Mike Tomlin's team was blown out in. The Steelers are 0-4 ATS coming off a win and cover as a favorite and 1-6 ATS in this spot since 2009.
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Gridiron Angles - Week 15
By Vince Akins
Browns at Bengals - The Browns are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 on the road when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Browns are 0-7 ATS (-6.3 ppg) since October 30, 2005 on the road when their passing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since October 12, 1997 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a home favorite. The Bengals are 0-6-1 ATS (-12.9 ppg) since December 01, 2002 after playing on the road versus the Steelers. The Bengals are 0-10 OU (-11.7 ppg) since November 30, 2006 at home when they averaged more than 24 points per game in their last three home games. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (11.4 ppg) since October 01, 2000 at home the week after a game in which they had fewer than 50 yards rushing.
Lions at Buccaneers - The Lions are 0-9 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 14, 1999 on the road after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times. The Lions are 0-8-1 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since October 26, 2003 as a dog the week after at home in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS (-5.4 ppg) since October 28, 2007 when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Buccaneers are 0-6-1 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since December 28, 2008 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Lions are 7-0 OU (15.8 ppg) since November 24, 1996 as a road dog the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Lions are 7-0-1 OU (9.1 ppg) since September 17, 2000 the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning.
Jaguars at Colts - The Jaguars are 6-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since September 18, 2005 after a win as a favorite in which they were losing at the half. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.9 ppg) since October 19, 1997 as a road dog the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Jaguars are 7-0-1 OU (11.1 ppg) since October 16, 2005 on the road the week after a win in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Jaguars are 6-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since December 11, 2005 after a win in which they were losing at the half.
Redskins at Cowboys - The Cowboys are 7-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since November 09, 1997 as a home favorite after a loss in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since September 15, 1996 as a favorite versus any team with more wins after playing at home. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-12.1 ppg) since October 05, 2008 the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing.
Bills at Dolphins - The Dolphins are 0-10 ATS (-12.7 ppg) since November 19, 2000 as a home favorite the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 16, 2003 at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 06, 2005 at home when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Dolphins are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 16, 2003 as a home favorite when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Bills are 0-8 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 15, 1990 as a road dog the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing. The Bills are 0-6 OU (-13.4 ppg) since September 18, 2005 the week after a game in which they allowed fewer than 100 yards passing.
Eagles at Giants- The Eagles are 8-0-1 ATS (8.1 ppg) since October 01, 1995 as a road dog when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since October 08, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged less than 1.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Giants are 6-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since October 15, 2006 after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Eagles are 0-11-1 OU (-11.8 ppg) since October 02, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 7-0 OU (17.7 ppg) since November 25, 2002 as a dog versus any team with the same record after a straight up win. The Giants are 9-0-1 OU (7.3 ppg) since November 07, 2004 as a favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road.
Cardinals at Panthers - The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since September 28, 2003 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Cardinals are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since October 27, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (8.7 ppg) since November 13, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has completed less than 55% of their passes season-to-date. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since November 02, 1997 as a favorite after playing at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since October 10, 2004 as a road dog after playing at home as a dog. The Cardinals are 9-0 OU (8.3 ppg) since November 25, 2007 the week after scoring 34+ points. The Panthers are 0-9 OU (-6.9 ppg) since December 14, 2008 as a home favorite.
Broncos at Raiders - The Broncos are 0-10 ATS (-20.8 ppg) since November 22, 2001 when they passed for at least 100 fewer yards last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up loss. The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-6.0 ppg) since September 14, 2003 when one game under 500 after a straight up loss on the road. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-4.6 ppg) since October 24, 2004 at home when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since December 09, 2001 as a favorite the week after a loss in which they outgained their opponent. The Raiders are 0-8 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since November 27, 2005 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Broncos are 0-10 OU (-9.6 ppg) since October 23, 1994 vs a team they lost to in their first match-up while committing at least three turnovers. The Broncos are 7-0-1 OU (12.9 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road when their dps was negative in their last two games.
Chiefs at Rams - The Chiefs are 12-0-1 ATS (9.3 ppg) since December 24, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road the week after in which they attempted at least ten fewer rushes than their season-to-date average. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since December 03, 1995 on the road after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog. The Chiefs are 8-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since October 17, 1994 on the road the week after scoring fewer than 10 points on the road. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (6.7 ppg) since December 23, 2006 on the road after playing on the road as a dog. The Chiefs are 0-7 ATS (-5.6 ppg) since October 10, 1999 within 3 of pick after they scored at least 10 points fewer than their season-to-date average on the road. The Rams are 7-0 ATS (10.5 ppg) since September 27, 1992 as a home dog vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Rams are 0-7 ATS (-13.1 ppg) since December 24, 1995 when one game under 500 after game eight after a straight up loss. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-14.1 ppg) since October 01, 1995 on the road after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road. The Chiefs are 0-6 OU (-11.9 ppg) since November 30, 2008 within 3 of pick after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time.
Saints at Ravens - The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (12.1 ppg) since October 26, 2008 at home vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS (-3.3 ppg) since September 28, 2003 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is on a 3+ game winning streak. The Ravens are 0-8 OU (-11.6 ppg) since November 26, 2006 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Ravens are 6-0 OU (11.0 ppg) since November 30, 2003 within 3 of pick the week after scoring 34+ points.
Falcons at Seahawks - The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (6.9 ppg) since December 03, 1992 on the road when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average in a straight up win. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since October 22, 1995 as a home dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Seahawks are 7-0 ATS (5.9 ppg) since October 11, 1998 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Falcons are 0-9-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since November 21, 2004 on the road off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Falcons are 0-9 OU (-10.1 ppg) since November 30, 2003 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date.
Jets at Steelers - The Jets are 8-0 ATS (11.7 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Jets are 6-0 ATS (9.0 ppg) since January 01, 2006 as a dog after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 12, 2004 as a home favorite the week after a win in which their dps was negative. The Jets are 8-0 OU (10.7 ppg) since November 20, 1994 as a dog the week after a straight up loss in which they attempted at least ten more passes than their season-to-date average. The Steelers are 9-0 OU (10.9 ppg) since October 15, 2006 at home when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date.
Texans at Titans - The Texans are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since September 29, 2002 on the road when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Texans are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since January 01, 2006 on the road after playing at home as a dog. The Titans are 0-9 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since September 26, 2004 as a home favorite when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Texans are 0-6 OU (-12.0 ppg) since November 16, 2003 on the road the week after scoring more than 24 points and losing. The Texans are 6-0 OU (6.5 ppg) since September 24, 2006 when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Titans are 6-0 OU (15.0 ppg) since January 06, 2002 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Titans are 0-6-1 OU (-7.8 ppg) since December 03, 2006 when facing a team they lost to in their first match-up.
Packers at Patriots - The Packers are 6-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since September 29, 1991 on the road the week after a road game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 as a 7+ favorite when their dps was positive in their last three games. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since January 07, 2007 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week on the road.
Bears at Vikings - The Bears are 6-0 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 09, 1997 as a dog when they rushed for at least 50 yards fewer last week than their season-to-date average. The Bears are 6-0 ATS (8.9 ppg) since December 24, 2000 the week after a straight up loss as a dog in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Vikings are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since October 30, 2006 the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since December 18, 2005 at home when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Bears are 0-8 OU (-10.5 ppg) since November 16, 2008 versus any team with fewer wins after a straight up loss. The Vikings are 8-0 OU (9.3 ppg) since November 19, 2006 after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Vikings are 7-0 OU (21.9 ppg) since November 25, 1990 within 3 of pick the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times.
NFL Week 15's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By Scott Cooley
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 48.5)
Jaguars’ pass defense vs. Colts’ pass offense
There was a lot of talk that Peyton Manning’s “down” year would cost the Colts a playoff berth. After he pulled the team out of a three-game slide behind a 25-of-35, 319-yard, two-touchdown performance Thursday, those proclamations have become whispers.
Jacksonville’s secondary has improved since the beginning of the season but this unit still ranks 28th against the pass (258.3 ypg). The Jags allowed Jason Campbell to throw for 324 yards and two scores last week while only misfiring on nine of his 30 attempts.
Manning did all he could in the first matchup versus Jacksonville. He completed 33 of 46 passes for 352 yards and two scores against this defense in early October so he could be poised for another big day. Indy ranks first in passing among league leaders at 304.0 yards per game.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 40)
Browns’ pass offense vs. Bengals’ secondary
You may be thinking to yourself, “How in the world can the league’s 27th-ranked passing offense be a mismatch for any defensive backfield?” When a secondary is as maligned as the Bengals’ is right now, any professional quarterback and grouping of receivers should be able to exploit it.
After suffering a knee injury last week, Chinedum Ndukwe became Cincinnati’s eighth defensive back to be placed on injured reserve this year.
Marvin Lewis and his staff worked out a cavalcade of D-backs Tuesday, in hopes of finding an able body. The team penned cornerback Keiwan Ratliff to a deal coming off a season with the Florida Tuskers of the UFL.
"(There are) a lot of guys who weren't here and haven't spent any time here," Lewis said of the secondary. "You are paring things down. You are doing things that hopefully you don't make a big error on. That is the hard part for the defensive coaches right now. You have a lot of guys that really weren't looked at to be in those spots when the year started."
Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-6.5, 43)
Broncos’ run defense vs. Raiders’ run offense
The Cardinals rank 28th in the NFL in rushing. Here was Arizona’s stat line against the Broncos last week: 34 carries, 211 yards, 6.2 ypc, 3 TDs.
When Tim Hightower ripped off a 41-yard run the fourth quarter of that game, the on-air analyst said the Denver defenders simply quit tackling, and it was quite apparent.
The last time this defense allowed fewer than 120 yards on the ground was in Week 3 and that came against the Colts - the worst rushing team in the league. The Donkeys surrender more than 150 rushing yards per game.
Darren McFadden is coming off a 16-carry, 123-yard performance last week versus Jacksonville. When the Raiders rolled into Mile High and embarrassed the home team, 59-14, D-Mac posted 165 yards and a 10.3 yards-per-carry clip. As a team that day, Oakland racked up 328 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 52 carries.
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (N/A)
New England Patriots vs. Snow
Some teams respond well when playing in inclement weather, some do not.
During the Bill Belichick era in Foxboro, the Patriots are a perfect 10-0 in snow games. Our records only reach back to the first eight games of that streak but indicate the Pats are 7-0-1 at the wagering window. In the last three games played on the white powder, New England has defeated its opponent by final scores of 36-7, 59-0 and 47-7.
Tom Brady has thrown for no fewer than 369 yards in his last two snow games. He torched the Titans secondary last year when he completed 29 of 34 passes for 380 yards and six scores in blankets of snowfall. Even Matt Cassel became impervious to Jack Frost when he put on a Patriots uniform. Against Arizona in 2008, he threw for 345 yards and three touchdowns in a snow-filled rout.
Snow showers are the in the Foxboro forecast Sunday. The Packers may not have a chance even if Aaron Rodgers is playing.
Total Talk - Week 15
By Chris David
Week 14 Recap
Weather finally played a factor last week, yet the ‘under’ still only produced an 8-7-1 record. Some ‘under’ players may’ve earned a win in the Falcons 31-10 over the Panthers since the number was hovering closer to 42 points prior to kickoff. On the season, the ‘over’ stands at 114-91-3 (56%) but the first game of the week went ‘under’ as San Diego ripped San Francisco 34-7 (44.5) on Thursday. Is the pendulum finally swinging the other way? Along with the poor playing conditions, the divisional factor (see below) will come into play again this week.
System Play
If you don’t have time to read Page 21 of the Football Forecast and check out some great proven systems, we’ll give it to you in real simple terms. Bet the ‘over’ in any game that has a team playing its third straight game on the road. This season, it stands at 1-1 and that includes the ‘under’ winner between the Saints and Rams. Those following that game know it was on pace at halftime (21-6), but things happened and a total of 17 points in the second-half kept the game from eclipsing the closing number of 47.
This week, three battles feature teams playing their third straight road game. The system has been solid and based on the angles, anything less than a 2-1 mark would be disappointing.
Denver at Oakland
Atlanta at Seattle
Cleveland at Cincinnati
Divisional Duels
In Week 15, we have eight divisional battles slated and all of these games are the second showdown between the two clubs going head-to-head. Delving into the eight games further, we’ve got five situations where the two teams saw the first encounter go way ‘over’ the number or way ‘under’ the total. Will we see a reverse outcome on Sunday or the same versus, just like the first?
Houston at Tennessee: This is the classic flip-flop game when it comes to total betting and you often find yourself scratching your head. Houston blanked Tennessee 20-0 in the first meeting, never threating the closing total of 46. Now, the number this week comes out at 47 1/2. If you take away this shutout by the Texans, their defense has given up 24 points or more in ever game, plus they surrendered 30-plus in seven of their 13 outings. The Titans won’t have a backup quarterback playing this week and they showed some power last week with a 28-point spot against Indy albeit in a loss. Both sides have playmakers on offense but the ‘under’ is on a 3-1 run in this series.
Jacksonville at Indianapolis: The Jaguars edge the Colts 31-28 in a game that was knotted 14-14 at the half. The game slowed down a bit in the second half but finally jumped ‘over’ the closing total of 45 with two minutes left. Including this affair, five of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number. The Jags have been an ‘over’ team all season (8-3-2) and so has the Colts (8-5). This week’s total is hovering between 48 and 49 points, and the status of Jacksonville QB David Garrard is up in the air.
Buffalo at Miami: These two AFC East clubs met in Week 1 and the Dolphins stifled the Bills 15-10 on the road in an ugly game. Buffalo started Trent Edwards that day and he was awful. Since then, Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the starter and he’s slumping. In his last three weeks, the offense has put up 16, 14 and 13 points and the gunslinger has only been picked off twice and fumbled three times during this stretch. Miami watched the first four games go ‘over’ at home but they’ve been held to a combined 10 points the last two outings in South Florida, both losses. To go even deeper, the Fins have been held to 10 or less in four of the last six. Last season, both games went ‘over’ the number but in 2008, the pair of regular season battles stayed ‘under.’ Do we see another sweep this year?
Washington at Dallas: Another Week 1 matchup here as the Cowboys and Redskins tangle for the second go ‘round. This time however, we’ll have two backup quarterbacks going at it. Jon Kitna took over the duties for Dallas when Tony Romo got hurt and has done a solid job, helping the team score 27 or more in the last five games. The big shocker here is that Washington benched Donovan McNabb in favor of Rex Grossman. McNabb’s days are done in D.C. but that’s a whole other story. Grossman has 33 touchdowns and 36 interceptions in 31 career starts, which could help with a defensive score. Washington has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 on the road and its highest output was 25 points and that was aided by a special teams score. However, the number is high and even though Dallas (11-2) has been a crazy ‘over’ team this season, especially at home (7-0), it makes you wonder if this high-scoring run ends in the Lone Star State.
Denver at Oakland: The Raiders lit up the Broncos 59-14 in wire-to-wire fashion, opening up a 38-7 lead and halftime and coasting to the blowout victory. Oakland put up 508 yards and 29 first downs in the win and it exposed how bad Denver’s defense really is. The Broncos are giving up 28.9 PPG and only two of their opponents have been held to 14 or less. Oakland (8-5) has been an ‘over’ team but lately the offense has been back and forth. After being held to a combined 20 points to the Steelers and Dolphins, the Raiders fired back with 28 and 31 on the road against the Chargers and Jaguars respectively the last two weeks. We know Denver’s defense is garbage but the Broncos annoucned rookie quarterback Tim Tebow will be making his first start. The total is sitting at 43 and that says a lot based on the weak defensive squads lining up and the shootout in the first head-to-head meeting. The ‘over’ might look easy but the vice versa theory could work here in the second meeting.
Fearless Predictions
We had one easy winner last week and one tough loser. That’s the business and splits are like kissing your sister. On the season, the Best Bets are 9-8 (+20). The three-team teaser did cash again, fairly easily too, which pushes that number up to 5-3 (+200). With three weeks to play, the bankroll is +220. Hopefully, we can pull out the broom and get up five units.
Best Over: Houston-Tennessee 47.5
Best Under: Detroit-Tampa Bay 43.5
Three-Team Total Teaser
Over Houston-Tennessee 38.5
Under Detroit-Tampa Bay 52.5
Under Arizona-Carolina 47.5
vegasinsider.com
NFL Betting Preview: Kansas City Chiefs at St. Louis Rams
By: Jeff Mattingly
Kansas City will make the cross-state trek to renew its Governor’s Cup rivalry with the Rams when visiting the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday. The Chiefs will look to keep their record unblemished in games played in the Show-Me State, owning a 6-0 mark at Arrowhead Stadium. Obviously the main talk in practice this week is the availability of quarterback Matt Cassel, who missed last week after undergoing an emergency appendectomy on December 8. He returned to practice on Wednesday, but the team has yet to announce his availability for the upcoming contest. Head coach Todd Haley is still disappointed in the team’s 31-0 loss at San Diego last week. “From start to finish it was a team loss,” he stated. “Offensively, we never could get anything positive going.” Kansas City is 3-0 ATS versus NFC West opponents this year.
The Chiefs are still a game ahead of the Chargers in the AFC West standings and are poised to register double-digit wins for the first time since 2005. Kansas City has won nine straight games against NFC West opponents dating back to the 2002 season. In winning all three games versus the division this season, the team has won by an average margin of 34.7 to 15.7. In order to pick up the victory, Kansas City will likely lean heavily on its rushing attack that ranks first in the league in rushing (165.4 ypg) and fourth in yards per carry (4.83).
St. Louis returns home after playing three consecutive weeks on the road and is coming off a 31-13 blowout loss in New Orleans last week. The Rams are 6-7 on the season and are in control of their destiny in the NFC West Division. “What I did talk about a little bit today was getting ready for Sunday’s game,” said head coach Steve Spangnuolo. “It’s about extra rest. It’s about taking care of your body.” A key point in this week’s practice is improving on third down, as the offense was one-of-11 last week, while the defense allowed the Saints to convert on 11-of-16 chances. St. Louis is 3-0 ATS versus AFC West opponents.
The Rams will certainly focus on establishing a rushing attack against a Chiefs’ defense that allowed a season-worst 207 yards on the ground last week. Running back Stephen Jackson is a six-time 1,000-yard rusher and became the first player in NFL history to amass 85 rushing yards, 13 catches and 130 yards receiving in the same game against Kansas City. St. Louis is 4-2 at home this season after going 2-22 in front of its home fans over the previous three seasons.
Bettors will be interested in laying the Chiefs due to their 1-7 ATS mark in December, while the Rams are 9-19 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
NFL Betting Preview: Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots
By Jeff Mattingly
Green Bay is set to travel to New England for the first time since the 2002 season and will play its fourth prime-time game of the season. The Packers will face a daunting task of trying to hand the Patriots a home loss without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who was ruled out on Saturday with concussion symptoms. “We’ve got a lot of playmakers out there,” said backup quarterback Matt Flynn. “I know I’m not going to have to go out and make amazing plays.” He has attempted all of 46 passes in his three-year career, with 26 of those coming in relief of Rodgers in last week’s loss at Detroit. The team has always seemed to turn in on at the end of the year and has posted a 13-7 record in regular-season games in December/January.
The Packers have won their last two visits to New England by identical 28-10 scores, but haven’t played there since 2002. Green Bay has a tremendous record during this time of year as stated earlier in this writeup, but the New England Patriots are even more dominating, recording a 39-9 mark in the same two months since Bill Belichick took over as head coach in 2000. In order to pull off a signature upset, the team’s defense will need to turn it up even another notch, as it enters the week yielding a league-low 14.5 points per game. Outside linebacker Clay Matthews will need to create a ton of pressure up front and continue his strong play against AFC opponents, recording eight sacks in his last four such games.
New England will face the Green Bay Packers for the 10th time overall and ninth time in the regular season. The series is tied 4-4, with the Patriots being handed a 35-21 loss in Super Bowl XXXI by the Packers inside the Louisiana Superdome. It’s hard to imagine that the team will drop tonight’s contest against a dazed visitor, especially considering its posted a 34-5 record against NFC rivals during the regular season. The Patriots are also incredibly efficient in the month of December, owning the league’s best home record with 17 wins and only once loss since the start of the 2002 season. New England is 3-0 ATS versus NFC North division opponents.
The Patriots have scored at least 30 points without committing a turnover in each of their past five games to extend their NFL record. Much of that success is attributed to the remarkable play of three-time Super Bowl champion quarterback Tom Brady, who has earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors in back-to-back weeks this season against Detroit and New York. He has won 26 consecutive regular season games at Gillette Stadium and leads the NFL with 29 touchdown passes.
Bettors will be interested in backing the Packers due to their 8-3 ATS mark after a straight-up loss, while the Patriots are 3-14 ATS as a favorite of 10.5 or more points.
Tips and Trends
Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants
EAGLES: Philadelphia has won 5 of their past 6 games, and appear to be the team to beat in the NFC. The Eagles are 9-4 SU and 6-7 ATS overall this year. The Eagles are 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS on the road this year. The Eagles are 1-2 SU and ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Michael Vick is the likely league MVP this year, as he's been simply dynamic. Vick has a total of 24 TD's this year, against only 4 INT's. Besides a dynamic passing game, RB LeSean McCoy has rushed for 970 YDS and 7 TD's this season. The Eagles are averaging 28.8 PPG this year, 2nd best in the NFL. Defensively, Philadelphia has given up at least 24 PTS in each of their past 3 games. The Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss. Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played in December. The Eagles are 12-5 ATS in their last 17 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed road underdog. Philadelphia is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games played on fieldturf.
Eagles are 1-5 ATS last 6 games as an underdog.
Over is 8-1 last 9 games overall.
Key Injuries - WR DeSean Jackson (foot) is probable.
Projected Score: 27
GIANTS: (-3, O/U 46) New York has revenge on their minds, as they lost by double digits to Philadelphia earlier this season. The Giants are 9-4 SU and 7-6 ATS overall this year. New York is 5-2 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this season. First place in the NFC East is on the line for today's game. New York averages nearly 150 rushing YPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. RB's Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs have combined for more than 1,800 YDS and 16 TD's this season. The Giants are averaging 25.3 PPG this year, 7th best in the NFL. Defensively, New York has allowed just 7 and 3 PTS respectively in their past 2 games. The Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. New York is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played in December. The Giants are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 home games overall. New York is 4-10 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Giants are 3-8 ATS last 11 games as a home favorite.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games against the NFC East.
Key Injuries - DE Justin Tuck (ribs) is probable.
Projected Score: 28 (OVER-Total of the Day)
New Orleans Saints at Baltimore Ravens
SAINTS: New Orleans is one of the hottest teams in the NFl, as they've won their past 6 games SU. As a result, the Saints are 10-3 SU and 6-7 ATS overall this year. As great as the Saints have been this year, they still trail Atlanta in the NFC South standings. The Saints have played their best football away from home, where they are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS this season. New Orleans will be playing their first game of the season as the listed underdog tonight. The Saints are averaging 25.4 PPG this year, including 5 consecutive games scoring at least 30 PTS. QB Drew Brees has thrown for 3,855 YDS this season, with 28 TD's against 18 INT's. Brees has had amazing accuracy this season, as he's completing 69% of his passes this year. WR Marquis Colston has 921 receiving YDS and 7 TD's this year. Defensively, New Orleans is allowing just 18.5 PPG, 5th fewest in the league. The Saints are 4-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. New Orleans is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games. The Saints are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 games following a SU win. New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Saints are 1-6 ATS last 7 games played in December.
Over is 5-0 last 5 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Key Injuries - RB Chris Ivory (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
RAVENS: (-1, O/U 43.5) Baltimore is coming off an OT win over the Texans on Monday Night Football last week. The Ravens have had a short week to prepare for the defending Super Bowl champions. The Ravens are fighting for a playoff berth, as they are 9-4 SU this year. Baltimore is also 6-6-1 ATS overall this season. The Ravens are 5-1 SU and 2-4 ATS at home this season. WR Anquan Boldin had a team high 811 receiving YDS this season, along with 7 TD's. RB Ray Rice has rushed for nearly 900 YDS this season. For the year, the Ravens are averaging 22.6 PPG. Defensively, Baltimore is allowing just 17.6 PPG this season, 4th best in the NFL. This proud defense was exhausted last week in the 2nd half, so they will be anxious to make amends tonight. The Ravens are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. Baltimore is 12-4-2 ATS in their last 18 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. The Ravens are 44-21-1 ATS in their last 66 games as the listed home favorite. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on fieldturf.
Ravens are 1-7 ATS last 8 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Under is 15-3 last 18 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Key Injuries - TE Todd Heap (hamstring) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)