Week 16 Games
Cowboys (5-9) @ Cardinals (4-10) - Dallas now 4-2 (5-1 vs spread) under Garrett, scoring 32.2 ppg; they scored only 20.1 ppg before Phillips got canned- is Garrett trying little harder now that he’s head coach? Home side won nine of last ten series games; Dallas lost five of last six visits to desert, falling 30-24 in OT in last visit, in ’08. Arizona lost eight of last nine games; they’re 3-4 at home, with losses by 3-18-21-13 points. Redbirds were +3/+5 in turnovers last two games they won. Last four Cowboy games were all decided by 3 points; Dallas is 1-6 vs spread as favorite this year, 0-1 on road; they’re 3-3 SU on road, winning by 14-13-3 points (won at Giants/Colts). NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread, 2-2 on road. NFC West home dogs are 6-4. Last 11 Dallas games went over the total.
Giants (9-5) @ Packers (9-5) - Huge game with #6 seed in NFC up for grabs; how do Giants bounce back from last week’s debacle, blowing 31-10 lead at home in last 8:00 in pivotal division rivalry game? First series meeting since Giants won NFC title game in OT here three years ago; road team won last five series games-- Giants won last two visits here. Packers lost last two games, both by 4 points; they’re 5-1 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning by 27-2-4-38-18 points (lost to Miami in OT). Giants are 4-2 on road, 2-2 as underdog; all four of their losses are by 7+ points. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. Four of last five Giant games stayed under total. Does Rodgers come back for Packers, and if so, how effective is he?
Lions (4-10) @ Dolphins (7-7) - Detroit is 11-3 vs spread this year, 5-2 as road dog, losing away games by 5-14-8-2-16 points; they broke 3-year road losing streak in Tampa last week, now visit Miami squad that is 1-6 at home this year (6-1 on road). Dolphins are 0-5 as home favorite this year; dogs covered all seven of their home games, with Fish scoring 0-10-14 points in last three home tilts. Lions are 2-7 in series, losing all four visits here by average score of 36-20. This is only 4th grass game of year for Lions, who lost by 5-2 points, and won by 3 in OT in three previous games on grass. AFC East home favorites are just 5-9-1 vs spread in non-division games. NFC North road dogs are 9-5-1. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 Detroit games, 2-6 in last eight Miami games.
Redskins (5-9) @ Jaguars (8-6) - How will host Jags bounce back from another disappointment at hands of Colts, who now win AFC South by beating Raiders/Titans in last two games? Grossman played well enough in Dallas last week (25-43/286), but odd way they’ve shunned McNabb points to fractured team. Inexperienced Beck expected to see some time at QB here, for Skin squad that is in sandwich between rivals Dallas/Giants, and is 4-2 as road dog, losing away games by 14-12-24-3 points (won at Philly/Chicago). Jags are 8-6 despite being favored only four times all year; they’re 5-2 in last seven games, 4-0 vs spread as favorite. Over is 6-2 in Jags’ last eight games, 1-4 in Redskins’ last five. Redskins won three of four series meetings, splitting pair here.
49ers (5-9) @ Rams (6-8) - Niners won last five series games, taking 23-20 OT flagfest (26 accepted penalties) in Candlestick (-6) in Week 10, when Rams couldn’t hold late lead (SF got 1st down after having 3rd-and-32 on game-tying drive). Starting with that game, Rams are 22 for last 85 on 3rd down (25.9%); failure to move chains, improve field position has put too much strain on defense. Rams are 4-3 at home, 2-1 as favorite, but they haven’t scored first half TD in last three games; hopefully return of injured TE Hoomanawanui will help- he was last active in Denver, when they scored 36 points. 49ers are 1-6 in true road games, even losing at 2-14 Carolina. St Louis has thinnest of leads in NFC West; Niners are still alive with win here.
Seahawks (6-8) @ Buccaneers (8-6) - Seattle is still tied for first in NFC West, even though all eight of its losses are by 15+ points; Seahawks are 2-4 as road underdogs this year. Bucs lost three of last four games, with last three decided by total of 8 points- they’re 1-2-2 vs as a favorite. Tampa needs Packers to beat Giants and win here to tie for Wild Card slot; they’re just 3-4 at home, winning by 3-1-15 points. Seattle threw eight INTs in last three games; they’re minus-10 in turnovers last four games. In their last two games, Bucs have no TDs, four FGs on five trips to red zone. Seahawks won four of five visits here; average total in last seven series meetings is 23.7. That said, Seattle’s last seven games this year went over total. NFC West road underdogs are 6-11 outside the division.
Patriots (10-4) @ Bills (4-10) - Pats clinch NFC East with win here or Jet loss in Chicago; they’ve won 14 in row vs Buffalo, taking last six here by 14-28-22-46-13-7 points. NE won first meeting this year 38-30 (-14) in Week 3, running ball for 200 yards, but Buffalo averaged 8.3 yards/pass attempts in that game, their 3rd-best mark this year. Bills are 4-2 in last six games after 0-8 start; they’re 6-2-1 vs. spread in last nine games overall, outscoring last five foes 68-20 in second half. Patriots scored 31+ points in each of last six games, winning last three on road by 13-21-29 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in AFC East divisional games. Last eight New England games went over total; under is 6-2 in Buffalo’s last eight games.
Ravens (10-4) @ Browns (5-9) - Anytime Ravens (formerly Browns) return to Cleveland, there’s venom in air; they beat Cleveland 24-17 (-10.5) in first meeting, despite Browns running ball for 173 yards (2nd-highest total of year), in their 5th straight series loss. Ravens are 7-4 on Lake Erie, winning last two years, 37-27/16-0. Last four Raven games have been very close; they’re 4-3 on road, winning last two away games 37-13/34-28. Last six Cleveland games were all decided by 7 or less points; Browns are 5-6-1 as underdogs, 2-2 at home, losing home games by 2-10-6 points. League-wide, home dogs are 18-12-1 vs spread in divisional games, 2-1 in AFC North. Browns’ last three games all stayed under the total.
Jets (10-4) @ Bears (10-4) - Rex Ryan against team his dad helped win Super Bowl 25 years ago; Bears clinched division with win Monday night, but are in scrap with Eagles for #2 seed and first-round bye, which is big- they’ve won six of last seven games, but are just 4-3 at home, 0-3 as home favorites. Chicago outscored last three opponents 40-13 in second half. Jets are pretty much locked into Wild Card, but haven’t clinched yet; they’re 6-1 on road, with all seven road games going over total. Chicago is 6-3 in series, 3-2 in games played here. NFC North home favorites are 8-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East road underdogs are 10-3. Five of last seven Jet games went over the total, as have last four Chicago games.
Titans (6-8) @ Chiefs (9-5) - Road team won last three series games; Chiefs split only two visits here, with last one back in ’04. Titans snapped 6-game skid last week; they’ve lost last three road games by 8-12-20 points, after starting season 3-0 on road. Chiefs got Cassel back under center last week; they’ve won last four games he played, and are 6-0 at home, 2-2 as home favorite, with wins by 7-21-22-3-18-4 points. KC needs to keep winning to stay step ahead of San Diego in AFC West, while Titans technically are still alive in their division; Fisher is using OC Heimerdinger (cancer) as an inspiration of how not to quit. Despite undergoing chemo, Heimerdinger hasn’t missed one day of work since he was diagnosed with cancer.
Colts (8-6) @ Raiders (7-7) - Oakland is 5-0 in its division, 2-7 outside it; they’re 5-2 at home, losing to Texans by 7, Dolphins by 16. Colts scored 35-30-34 points last three weeks, as prolific Manning continues to amaze; after tossing 11 INTs in 3-game stretch, Colts haven’t turned ball over last two weeks, can now win AFC South if they win this game and beat Titans at home next week. Raiders want to pound ball; they’ve run it for 251-153-264 yards in last three games, scoring average of 32.7 ppg. Colts allowed 24+ points in six of seven road games; they’re 3-4 on road, 1-3-1 as road favorite. AFC West underdogs are 7-11 vs spread in non-divisional games, 1-3 at home. AFC South favorites are 9-9-2, 2-1-2 on road. Four of last five Indy games went over the total.
Texans (5-9) @ Broncos (3-11) - Both sides sinking here; Texans lost last three games, allowing 33 ppg (gave up 11 TDs on last 30 drives), outscored 65-20 in first half of those games- they’ve lost last five road games. Denver lost last five games (1-4 vs. spread), converting just 10 of last 60 on 3rd down; they’re 2-4 at home, but did score 82 points in last two home games. League-wide, home underdogs in non-divisional games are 18-19-3. Six of last seven Texan games went over total, as did three of last four Bronco games. Houston coach Kubiak came to Texans from Broncos, could he be returning as Denver HC if Houston fires him? First home start for Tebow, who did OK in starting debut last week. Not much to choose from on either side, except maybe the over. Check weather.
Chargers (8-6) @ Bengals (3-11) - San Diego needs two wins and a KC loss to make playoffs; they’ve won six of last seven games, scoring 29+ points in wins- they allowed only one TD on last 18 drives with 10 3/outs. Since halftime of loss to Raiders, they’ve outscored opponents 75-14 in last 10 quarters. Bengals snapped 10-game skid last week, running ball for 188 yards, their most this year by 39 yards. Cincy covered in only two of 11 losses this year, even though six of its 11 losses are by 7 or less points- they’re 3-5 as an underdog, 2-1 at home. AFC West favorites are 10-8, 2-3 on road. AFC North underdogs are 8-9-2. 3-2 at home. Last five Charger games, three of last four Bengal games stayed under total.
Vikings (5-9) @ Eagles (10-4) - America is clamoring for more Joe Webb, so NBC flexed out of Charger-Bengal game into this, probably hoping Favre would play, which he won’t. Minnesota lost last two games by combined score of 61-17; over last six games, they’ve been outscored 70-27 in second half, a sign of team in tank. Vikings are 1-5-1 vs. spread as an underdog this year. Eagles are off pair of NFC East wins with Cowboy rematch on deck; they’re 4-2 at home, 3-2 as home fave, with home wins by 14-2-10-10 points. NFC East favorites are 7-10 vs spread outside the division, 5-8 at home; NFC North underdogs are 11-7-1, 9-5-1 on road. Nine of last ten Eagle games went over total. Given chance to hammer Vikings, Reid probably will, seeing as they fired his buddy Childress.
Saints (10-4) @ Falcons (12-2) - Defending champs have four losses; they were -2/-3/-4/-2 in turnovers in those games. Atlanta (+4) upset Saints 27-24 in Week 3, running ball for 202 yards, but allowing 8.9 yards/pass attempt; underrated Falcons won last eight games, covered last six- they just won/covered three in row on road, not easy to do. Atlanta is 6-0 at home, 4-2 as home favorite, winning home tilts by 34-2-7-6-5-3 points. Saints had 6-game win streak snapped last week, but they’ve also allowed 27+ points in three of last four games; they’re 5-2 on road. Falcons haven’t lost a fumble in their last seven games. Over is 7-2 in last nine Falcon games, 4-1 in last five Saint tilts. Home team is just 1-8 vs. spread in NFC south divisional games, with home favorites 1-4.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 16
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5)
Why Cowboys cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. the Cards. Arizona's defense ranks near the bottom of the league and could be without linebacker Joey Porter who has a triceps injury.
Why Cardinals cover: Larry Fitzgerald has become the focus of the offense again with John Skelton at quarterback and is averaging 33 yards more per game with the rookie under center.
Total (45): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
Detroit Lions at Miami Dolphins (-3.5)
Why Lions cover: They are coming off huge back-to-back wins over tough conference opponents and are expected to get quarterback Shaun Hill back from injury.
Why Dolphins cover: Detroit's playmakers are banged up and Miami boasts the NFL's fourth best defense. The Lions are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games against the Dolphins.
Total (41.5): The over is 3-1-1 in the Lions’ last five road games and 10-4-1 in the Dolphins' last 15 home games.
San Francisco 49ers at St. Louis Rams (-1.5)
Why 49ers cover: They're 9-3 ATS in their last 12 against the Rams and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven trips to St. Louis.
Why Rams cover: San Francisco will go back to Troy Smith at quarterback. In five games with him under center the Niners were 2-3 ATS and averaged 18-points per game.
Total (39.5): The under is 7-2 in the last nine meetings and 4-0 in the last four in St. Louis.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles (-14)
Why Vikings cover: They have a strong defense that could slow down Philadelphia's potent offensive attack and give their offense enough room to cover the two-touchdown spread.
Why Eagles cover: The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five games against the Eagles. Minnesota is likely to start rookie Joe Webb at quarterback and could be without Pro Bowl RB Adrian Peterson who has injuries to his thigh and knee.
Total (44): The over is 4-0 in the Eagles' last four games.
New York Jets at Chicago Bears (-1)
Why Jets cover: They are 11-4 straight up on the road under coach Rex Ryan. The Jets defense will look to abuse one of the weaker offensive lines in football.
Why Bears cover: The forecast for Sunday in Chicago is cold and windy with flurries, which isn't promising for Jets QB Mark Sanchez. Meanwhile Jets wideout Santonio Holmes is dealing with a turf toe injury.
Total (36.5): The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between these two teams.
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (+9)
Why Patriots cover: They're 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with the Bills and 6-0 ATS in their last six trips to Buffalo. The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings these two AFC East rivals.
Why Bills cover: Look for Buffalo to take a page out of Green Bay's book last week and attempt to control the time of possession with a heavy dose of Fred Jackson on the ground against New England's 28th ranked defense.
Total (44): The under is 17-6 in the last 23 meetings and 9-3 in the last 12 games in Buffalo.
Seattle Seahawks at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6)
Why Seahawks cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in Tampa Bay. The road team is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
Why Buccaneers cover: Seattle will stick with Matt Hasselbeck at quarterback even though he’s turned the ball over a whopping 13 times in his last four games.
Total (43.5): The under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings between these two teams and 4-0 in the last four games in Tampa Bay.
Washington Redskins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-7)
Why Redskins cover: Rex Grossman (322 yards, 4 TDs, 2 INTs) played well in place of Donovan McNabb last week. Jags Pro Bowl RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been hampered by a knee injury and was held to 46 yards on the ground by the Colts' 28th ranked rush defense last week.
Why Jaguars cover: Washington is allowing almost 135 yards per game on the ground and will be without linemen Maake Kemoeatu and Phillip Daniels this week.
Total (45): The over is 7-1 in the Jaguars' last eight games.
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-5)
Why Titans cover: The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings between these two teams. The Titans’ run defense has been phenomenal lately and could pose problems for the Chiefs' top-ranked rush attack.
Why Chiefs cover: They are allowing a league-low 12.2 points per game at home this season.
Total (42): The over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
Why Ravens cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings with Cleveland. After shocking the NFL with wins against New Orleans and New England, Cleveland has come crashing back to reality with losses against Cincinnati and Buffalo.
Why Browns cover: Peyton Hillis totaled 180 yards from scrimmage with a touchdown against Baltimore in Week 3, and helped Cleveland cover as 12-point underdogs.
Total (39.5): The under is 4-1-2 in the last seven meetings in Cleveland.
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders (+3)
Why Colts cover: Oakland's star cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha is dealing with a sore ankle. Peyton Manning is protecting the ball and the offense has become more balanced with 242 yards rushing on 56 carries in the last two games.
Why Raiders cover: They average over 150 yards per game on the ground and Indianapolis allows 135 yards rushing per game. The Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against Oakland.
Total (47.5): The over is 4-0-1 in Indy’s last five contests.
Houston Texans at Denver Broncos (+2.5)
Why Texans cover: Arian Foster has shaken off injuries and will start on Sunday against a Denver run defense that is allowing 158.4 rushing yards per game.
Why Broncos cover: Tim Tebow showcased his versatility in his first NFL start last week with touchdowns both rushing and passing without turning the ball over. Now gets he faces the NFL's worst pass defense.
Total (48.5): The over is 4-0 in the Texans' last four road games and 4-0 in the Broncos' last four home games.
New York Giants at Green Bay Packers (-3)
Why Giants cover: The road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. The G-Men are the best in the NFL at getting to the quarterback and will look to pressure Aaron Rodgers who is recovering from a concussion.
Why Packers cover: Eli Manning leads the league with 20 interceptions and could struggle against Green Bay's third-ranked pass defense.
Total (43): The over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings between these two clubs.
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (+9)
Why Chargers cover: The road team is 4-0 ATS in their last four matchups. Cincy WR Chad Ochocinco will only play half of the game due to bone spurs in his ankle, if he suits up at all.
Why Bengals cover: San Diego's offense could be without running back Ryan Mathews (ankle), tight end Antonio Gates (foot), and receivers Malcom Floyd (hamstring) and Patrick Crayton (wrist).
Total (44): The over is 6-0-2 in the last eight meetings and 3-0-1 in the last four matchups in Cincinnati.
New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2)
Why Saints cover: Drew Brees has thrown for 1,256 yards with 13 touchdowns and only one interception in his last four Monday Night games.
Why Falcons cover: The Saints are 1-4 ATS in their last five games against the Falcons. Atlanta quarterback Matt Ryan is 19-1 in 20 career starts at home.
Gridiron Trends - Week 16
By Vince Akins
Cowboys at Cardinals - The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-9.8 ppg) since October 10, 1999 when they won last week while benefiting from a takeaway margin of at least +2 as a TD+ favorite. The Cowboys are 0-7 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since December 06, 1992 as a road favorite after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a road favorite when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks. The Cowboys are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since December 09, 2007 on the road when they won their last two road games. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 the week after on the road as a dog in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Cowboys are 9-0 OU (12.3 ppg) since September 15, 2003 on the road when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-9-1 OU (-11.6 ppg) since September 17, 1995 as a road favorite after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since October 29, 2000 vs a non-divisional opponent when they faced divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. The Cardinals are 0-6 OU (-9.8 ppg) since November 22, 1992 as a home dog when their passing yards increased in each of the last two weeks.
Jets at Bears - The Jets are 9-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Bears are 0-7 ATS (-9.3 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a favorite when they had at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks. The Bears are 0-6-1 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since October 16, 2006 when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week as a favorite. The Bears are 9-0 OU (11.2 ppg) since October 28, 2001 as a home favorite when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Bears are 6-0 OU (10.0 ppg) since November 05, 2006 at home the week after a game in which they benefited from at least four turnovers.
Chargers at Bengals - The Bengals are 0-7 ATS (-13.4 ppg) since December 18, 2006 after a straight up win at home as a favorite. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (5.4 ppg) since November 30, 1997 when they got revenge last week at home. The Bengals are 0-6 ATS (-10.3 ppg) since September 29, 2002 as a home dog when their opponent is off two 10+ wins. The Chargers are 9-0 OU (15.3 ppg) since September 11, 2005 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a divisional opponent. The Bengals are 0-8 OU (-6.4 ppg) since October 08, 2000 at home when they rushed for at least 50 yards more last week than their season-to-date average.
Patriots at Bills - The Patriots are 9-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since October 30, 2006 on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Patriots are 8-0-1 ATS (10.0 ppg) since September 19, 2004 as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (18.1 ppg) since December 27, 2003 as a 7+ favorite when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Patriots are 9-0 OU (16.9 ppg) since November 07, 2004 on the road the week after as a favorite in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 7-0 OU (16.7 ppg) since December 17, 2006 when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Bills are 0-7 OU (-13.7 ppg) since November 30, 2008 at home after a straight up win.
Texans at Broncos - The Texans are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.4 ppg) since October 10, 2004 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Texans are 7-0 ATS (8.0 ppg) since September 26, 2004 on the road the week after on the road in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Texans are 7-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since December 03, 2006 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The Broncos are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since December 24, 1994 at home the week after on the road in which they allowed at least 100 more yards of offense than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since September 17, 2006 when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Broncos are 7-0 ATS (10.9 ppg) since December 17, 1995 when they got swept last week. The Broncos are 0-7 ATS (-23.0 ppg) since September 28, 2008 when their opponent is on a 3+ game losing streak. The Texans are 0-8 OU (-11.1 ppg) since December 08, 2002 on the road the week after as a dog in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 7-0-1 OU (10.3 ppg) since October 18, 1992 within 3 of pick at home when their rushing yards decreased in each of the last two weeks. The Broncos are 6-0 OU (14.6 ppg) since January 09, 2005 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date.
Ravens at Browns - The Ravens are 0-8 ATS (-6.6 ppg) since December 19, 2004 on the road when their ats mrgin increased over each of their past two games. The Browns are 0-10 ATS (-11.3 ppg) since November 10, 1991 as a dog when they allowed revenge last week. The Browns are 8-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since November 18, 2001 the week after a loss in which they committed no turnovers. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (5.6 ppg) since January 01, 2006 as a home dog off a SU and ATS loss last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS win last week.
Seahawks at Buccaneers - The Buccaneers are 0-8-2 ATS (-8.9 ppg) since December 20, 2003 as a favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 150+ yards rushing. The Buccaneers are 0-6 ATS (-8.8 ppg) since September 18, 1994 as a home favorite when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date.
Titans at Chiefs - The Titans are 8-0 ATS (15.1 ppg) since October 26, 1997 as a road dog when they were up by at least a TD at the half and won by double-digits last week. The Titans are 7-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since December 29, 2002 on the road when they covered by 10+ points last week against a divisional opponent. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (9.8 ppg) since December 13, 2004 as a favorite when on a 1 game SU and ATS winning streak. The Titans are 6-0 OU (10.8 ppg) since November 08, 1998 as a dog vs a non-divisional opponent between divisional opponents. The Titans are 6-0 OU (12.8 ppg) since September 25, 2005 as a dog after a win in which they sacked the opposing quarterback at least 4 times.
Lions at Dolphins - The Lions are 0-8 ATS (-12.0 ppg) since September 23, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since September 19, 1993 on the road after a win against a non-divisional opponent in which they were losing at the half. The Dolphins are 0-9 ATS (-9.1 ppg) since November 06, 2005 at home when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Dolphins are 7-0-1 ATS (14.7 ppg) since October 24, 2004 when they had a negative takeaway margin in each of their last three games. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS (-17.2 ppg) since October 22, 2006 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Lions are 10-0 OU (12.1 ppg) since October 29, 1989 on the road when they have had a negative dpa in each of their last three games. The Lions are 7-0 OU (18.1 ppg) since October 14, 1990 on the road after a straight up win on the road as a dog. The Dolphins are 7-0 OU (11.6 ppg) since December 20, 2004 at home when they lost 1-3 points last week.
Vikings at Eagles - The Vikings are 6-0 ATS (12.5 ppg) since November 14, 1993 as a dog when on a 2 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Eagles are 7-0 ATS (8.6 ppg) since September 07, 2008 as a home 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Vikings are 9-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since November 19, 2006 after a loss in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Eagles are 0-9 OU (-9.3 ppg) since October 31, 2004 as a home favorite the week after scoring 34+ points. The Eagles are 0-8 OU (-9.9 ppg) since December 16, 1990 as a 7+ favorite when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games.
Redskins at Jaguars - The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since December 13, 1998 as a dog when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date. The Jaguars are 0-8 ATS (-11.2 ppg) since September 14, 2008 when on a 1 game SU and ATS losing streak. The Redskins are 0-10 OU (-8.6 ppg) since October 13, 1997 as a dog the week after on the road in which they had at least three fewer minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (9.4 ppg) since October 01, 2006 as a favorite after a straight up loss as a dog.
Giants at Packers - The Giants are 9-0 ATS (10.8 ppg) since December 30, 2006 on the road after playing when the line was within 3 of pick'em. The Giants are 9-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since October 15, 2006 within 3 of pick on the road vs a non-divisional opponent. The Packers are 7-0 OU (11.9 ppg) since December 12, 1999 the week after on the road in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average.
Colts at Raiders - The Colts are 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since October 29, 2006 within 3 of pick the week after a win in which their dpa was positive. The Raiders are 0-10 ATS (-12.2 ppg) since December 24, 1994 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Raiders are 0-7 ATS (-13.3 ppg) since October 20, 2002 after playing as a TD+ favorite. The Raiders are 8-0 OU (7.3 ppg) since October 05, 2003 after a straight up win at home as a favorite.
49ers at Rams - The 49ers are 0-8-1 ATS (-13.6 ppg) since November 15, 1998 within 3 of pick on the road vs a divisional opponent before playing at home. The Rams are 0-9 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-8.5 ppg) since January 06, 2002 on the road when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The 49ers are 6-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since December 31, 2006 when their completion percentage increased in each of their last two games. The Rams are 8-0 OU (10.5 ppg) since October 09, 2005 at home when their ats margin decreased over each of their past two games. The Rams are 0-7-1 OU (-7.4 ppg) since November 13, 2005 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a divisional opponent.
Saints at Falcons - The Saints are 7-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since November 20, 2005 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Saints are 8-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after a straight up loss on the road. The Saints are 6-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since November 25, 2007 after playing as a dog. The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-10.7 ppg) since October 09, 2005 when they won by 7+ points in each of the last two weeks. The Saints are 8-0 OU (7.1 ppg) since November 08, 1998 as a road dog after a straight up loss on the road. The Falcons are 0-8-1 OU (-8.8 ppg) since October 13, 1996 within 3 of pick at home when their opponent is playing in at least their second straight road game.
Week 16 Showdowns
By Kevin Rogers
With Christmas in the rear-view mirror, NFL teams on the cusp of the playoffs need to tighten up for a final push. There are five key games on Sunday that will give us a clearer picture of the postseason, including several major contests in the NFC. The Giants and Packers play in a virtual elimination game, while the Bears look to step closer towards a first-round bye with a win over the Jets. We'll start with a battle in the AFC at Arrowhead Stadium as the Chiefs try for their 10th victory of the season.
Titans at Chiefs (-5, 42½)
Kansas City is on the doorstep of winning its first AFC West title since 2003, as Todd Haley's squad will clinch with a victory and Chargers' loss. The Chiefs haven't lost at home yet this season as the Titans attempt to play the role of spoilers. Tennessee snapped a six-game losing streak with a blowout win over Houston, as the Titans try to salvage a lost season.
The Chiefs' offense got back on track with Matt Cassel under center in last Sunday's 27-13 triumph at St. Louis as short road 'dogs. Kansas City owns a 2-4 ATS mark the last six games as a favorite, even though the Chiefs are a perfect 6-0 at home. The 'under' is a strong play at Arrowhead, hitting in four of six tries for the Chiefs.
The Titans have won each of the last two meetings in Western Missouri as road 'chalk' in 2007 and 2008. Tennessee seemed to be falling apart at the seams prior to a 31-14 thrashing of Houston last week, the second straight cover for Jeff Fisher's team. The Titans have lost each of their last three games as road underdogs, while going 2-5 ATS overall the past seven weeks.
Niners at Rams (-2½, 39½)
Going east in the Show-Me-State, two below .500 squads duke it out in the mediocre NFC West as San Francisco goes for the season sweep of St. Louis. The Niners amazingly still have a great opportunity to claim the division title with victories in the final two weeks over the Rams and Cardinals, in spite of a potential 7-9 record.
The Rams have made tremendous strides following a 1-15 campaign in 2009 by winning six games this season. St. Louis is falling apart at the wrong time following consecutive losses to New Orleans and Kansas City, but the Rams are 9-5 ATS this season. The offense has seen its share of ups and downs under Sam Bradford, scoring 20 points or fewer in 12 games after last week's 13-point effort.
San Francisco has made another change at quarterback by going back to former Heisman winner Troy Smith after two weeks with Alex Smith under center. The Niners were rolled at San Diego last Thursday, 34-7 as 10-point underdogs, the sixth loss in seven road contests. Since an 0-5 start, Mike Singletary's club hasn't lost back-to-back games, but is 2-5 ATS away from Candlestick Park. The Niners knocked off the Rams in overtime, 23-20 in Week 10, but failed to cover as 4½-point favorites.
Jets at Bears (-1, 36½)
A pair of 10-4 teams hooks up at Soldier Field with different clinching scenarios on the line. Chicago has already wrapped up the NFC North title with last Monday's blowout at Minnesota, but the Bears can grab a first-round bye with a win over the Jets and losses by the Giants and Eagles. New York controls its own playoff destiny with a victory at Chicago or a loss by either Indianapolis or Jacksonville.
The news all week surrounding the Jets (besides Rex Ryan's love of feet) revolved around the status of Mark Sanchez's throwing shoulder. The ex-USC standout's condition took this game off the board at several places, but Sanchez was upgraded to probable on Friday. The Jets picked up their sixth road win in seven tries following last week's 22-17 upset of the Steelers as 3½-point underdogs.
The Bears bounced back nicely from a 29-point home setback to the Patriots in Week 13 to dice up the struggling Vikings last Monday, 40-14. Following four straight 'unders,' Chicago has cashed four consecutive 'overs' after easily eclipsing the total of 34 by themselves at Minnesota. The Bears are just 1-3 ATS as a home favorite this season, while the four teams Chicago was laying points against all have less than six victories in 2010.
Colts (-3, 47) at Raiders
Indianapolis isn't going away just yet in the AFC South thanks to back-to-back divisional victories over Tennessee and Jacksonville. The Colts enter Sunday's action tied with the Jags atop the division at 8-6, as Jim Caldwell's club will clinch the AFC South with wins in the final two weeks. The first task is going out to the Black Hole to battle a feisty Raiders club that is still alive in the AFC West at 7-7.
The Colts are expecting Joseph Addai to return to the lineup after the running back missed the last eight games with a shoulder injury. Indianapolis' offense has clicked the last three weeks by scoring at least 30 points in each game, including a 34-point spot in a 10-point season-saving victory over Jacksonville. The high-scoring affairs have benefited 'over' backers by cashing easily in each of the last three games.
The Raiders have been a tough team to figure out at times this season, but the following stat tells us a lot. Oakland is a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS within the division after years of struggle inside the AFC West, while going just 2-7 SU and 3-6 ATS against teams outside the division. Darren McFadden has paced the league's second-best running game this season as the Raiders face a Colts' defense that allows 135 yards/game. Since a 17-9 loss at San Francisco in Week 6, Oakland is 5-3 to the 'over' the last eight games.
Giants at Packers (-3, 43)
The loser of this game will not play meaningful football in January as the Giants can clinch a playoff spot with a victory at Lambeau Field. The Packers seemed like they were on their way to possibly winning the NFC North two weeks ago, but consecutive losses to the Lions and Patriots and the concussion to Aaron Rodgers has damaged Green Bay's hopes to a playoff run.
Rodgers has been cleared to play this week, as the Packers have lost all six games this season by four points or less. Green Bay has taken care of its business against weaker competition at home, beating five teams that own records of .500 or worse. The Packers score plenty of points at Lambeau Field, averaging 31.5 ppg in six home contests, translating into a 4-2 'over' mark.
The meltdown at the Meadowlands last week will either be an aberration or a season-defining setback for Tom Coughlin's team in a 38-31 loss to the Eagles. The Giants blew a 31-10 lead with eight minutes remaining, which would have been New York's fourth straight victory. Now, the Giants will likely have to settle on a Wild Card berth after falling to 3-5 ATS at home thanks to the Philadelphia defeat. New York will try to knock out Green Bay like it did in the 2008 NFC Title Game with a 23-20 overtime victory en route to a Super Bowl championship.
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Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David
Week 15 Recap
The ‘over’ train continued it season-long dominance last weekend with a 10-6 (63%) mark. Gamblers leaning toward high-scoring affairs could’ve netted an easy $340 (1000-660) by playing one-unit on every ‘over’ ticket. And when you look at what the ‘over’ has done all season – 124-97-3 (56%) – you could have close to 17 units (12,400-10,760) in your bankroll. The two primetime games on Sunday and Monday both went ‘over’ again, but the Thursday night battle between San Diego and San Francisco stayed ‘under.’ This week, Pittsburgh kept the early low-scoring trend going with a 27-3 win over Carolina as the combined 30 points slipped ‘under’ the number 33.
System Play Recaps
Any sports bettor will tell you that hitting 60 percent is a great number, and it’s much higher than most of the production you’ll see in the handicapping industry. With that being said, the Totals System we informed you about posted a solid 3-2 (60%) mark this year. Once again, read Page 21 of the Football Forecast and you’ll see some proven systems that can help you with your handicapping.
Lucky No. 13
Is this the week that Dallas and New England finally see their games go ‘under’ the total? Both teams have watched the ‘over’ go 12-2 on the season and they’ve been helping the betting public bury the books. What’s even crazier is that the games haven’t been tough. No sweat shops, no late-minute scores. These winners have been as black and white as can be. With so many meaningless games late in the season, gamblers might want to pass rather than chase. The Cowboys visit the Cardinals on Saturday evening, while the Patriots head to Buffalo. Both teams are facing totals of 45 and 44 ½ respectively.
Moon Under Miami
It’s well known that the Dolphins have had trouble winning at home (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) this season and the blame could be pointed on the defense, but lately it’s been the offense's fault. And when you don’t produce points, you see a lot of low-scoring affairs which create ‘under’ tickets. Miami saw its first four home games go ‘over’ as the club averaged a respectable 22 PPG. During that same span, the defense allowed an eye opening 28.5 PPG. In the last three games at Sun Life Stadium, that same defensive unit has given up an average of 15.3 PPG while the offense has put up an average of 8 PPG. Detroit visits South Beach this Sunday and it has watched the ‘over’ go 9-5 in the first 14 games. The Lions offense isn't spectacular by any means and they’ve been using second and third-string quarterbacks for the majority of the season. On the road this season, Detroit is averaging 17.7 PPG. The total is hovering around 42 points and this writer finds it hard to see either team come close to 20.
4 O’clock High
We’re well aware that the books have been getting pounded with ‘over’ tickets all season but the adjustments seem a little much, especially when you look at the handful of late-afternoon games. All of the numbers are listed at 43 or higher and weather could play a factor in a few of these contests. Let’s take a look at the matchups.
San Diego at Cincinnati: After playing three straight at home and heading into this matchup with rest, most would believe San Diego will come close to its offensive average (27.7). However, Cincinnati has given up and even though it won last week over Cleveland (19-17), the offense used the ground game. The weather isn’t going to be nice in Ohio for this one, plus a couple playmakers will be ‘out’ of action. San Diego won’t have tight end Antonio Gates (knee) and Cincinnati will be without wide receiver Terrell Owens (knee). The total on this game did open at 44 ½ and its sitting at 43 as of Saturday. Don’t be surprised to see more of a drop here.
Houston at Denver: The way Houston (27.6 PPG) and Denver (29.6 PPG) give up points, the total of 49 ½ might be considered too low for some. Except for a shutout against the Titans (20-0) and their third-stringer quarterback, Houston has given up 24 points or more in every game. The only thing that might make you weary of playing the shootout is Denver’s offense under rookie QB Tim Tebow. He put up 23 points last week (2 TDs, 3 FGs) in his first start but can he duplicate that effort? The play could be on Houston’s team total over, which is 26 ½ points at most outfits.
Indianapolis at Oakland: Two teams still trying to make the playoffs meet in a non-divisional showdown and this one has the making of the shootout based on current form. Indy has watched the ‘over’ go 6-1 on the road this and its defense has been horrible lately, giving up 31.4 PPG in the last five. Fortunately, the offense has QB Peyton Manning and they’re averaging 27.7 PPG. Oakland has played much better offensively at home (25.2 PPG) and that’s resulted in a 5-2 ‘over’ ledger. The total (48) seems a tad high for two teams that like to take their time, but the Raiders have been putting up some big scoring plays lately. Will we se more of the same here?
N.Y. Giants at Green Bay: The G-Men and Packers both have their backs up against the wall in this spot and the loser could be eliminated from the playoffs. New York (38) and Green Bay (31) both lost heartbreakers last week and both defensive units were exposed late by the Eagles and Patriots respectively. Prior to those outcomes, New York had given up a total of 10 points in its last two games. And Green Bay was even better, surrendering 53 combined points in the previous six games. Which units will line up on Sunday? The temperatures will be low and the wind could force both units to run, which usually speeds up the clock. Does this total of 43 in late December at Lambeau Field seem too high?
Seattle at Tampa Bay: Another total that could have you scratching your head is the 44-spot listed between Seattle and Tampa Bay. Even though the Seahawks have seen the ‘over’ cash in seven straight and go 10-3-1 on the season, the winning tickets are due to its horrendous defense (25.9 PPG). Now they travel cross-country to face a Tampa Bay team that isn’t exactly a juggernaut (20 PPG). The unit is still being run by a young gun slinger in Josh Freeman, plus head coach Raheem Morris might keep this game tight due to the playoff possibilities for the Buccaneers.
Fearless Predictions
Sometimes you win with the hook, sometimes it gets you! Last week, we went 2-0 in our Best Bets and both games won by a half-point. The Lions edged the Buccaneers 23-20, which stayed ‘under’ 43 ½ points for some players and the Titans ran over the Texans 31-17, which barely went ‘over’ the closing number of 47 ½. On the season, the Best Bets are 11-8 (+220). And the three-team teaser did cash again, which pushes that number up to 6-3 (+200). The overall bankroll is hovering around four units (+420) and we’re looking forward to this week too.
Best Over: San Francisco-St. Louis 39.5
Best Under: San Diego-Cincinnati 43.5
Three-Team Total Teaser
Over San Francisco-St. Louis 30.5
Under San Diego-Cincinnati 52.5
Under New England-Buffalo 53.5
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Tips and Trends
Indianapolis Colts at Oakland Raiders
COLTS: (-3, O/U 47) Indianapolis has won their past 2 games to get to 8-6 SU, which just happens to be tied for their division lead. The AFC South has been a difficult division this year, arguably the toughest division in the NFL. Besides being 8-6 SU, the Colts are also 7-6-1 ATS this year. Indianapolis is 3-4 SU and 3-3-1 ATS on the road this season. The Colts have but 1 win ATS as the listed road favorite this year. QB Peyton Manning has thrown for more than 4,250 YDS this season, the most of any QB in the NFL. To no surprise, the Colts average just under 300 YPG passing this season, best in the NFL. As a team, Indianapolis is averaging 27.2 PPG, 4th best in the league. This Colts defense continues to give up points, as they've allowed each of their last 3 opponents to score at least 24 PTS. The Colts are 13-5-2 ATS in their last 20 road games. Indianapolis is 34-15-3 ATS in their last 52 games following a SU win. The Colts are 11-5-2 ATS in their last 18 games played on grass. Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite.
Colts are 8-3 ATS last 11 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games played in December.
Key Injuries - RB Joseph Addai (shoulder) is probable.
Projected Score: 30 (OVER-Total of the Day)
RAIDERS: Oakland is 15 weeks into the NFL season, and they don't have a losing record. Things are looking up for the Raiders, as this is clearly a team on the rise. The Raiders are 7-7 SU and 8-6 ATS overall this season. Oakland is 5-2 SU and 4-3 ATS in home games this season, including 2-1 ATS as the listed home underdog. The Raiders have an elite rushing attack, as they average 157.5 YPG on the ground, 2nd most in the NFL. RB Darren McFadden has rushed for more than 1,100 YDS this season, including 7 TD's. Oakland is averaging 25.2 PPG this year, 9th best in the NFL. Defensively, the Raiders have allowed 4 of their past 5 opponents to score at least 23 PTS. The Raiders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Oakland is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall. The Raiders are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. Oakland is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following an ATS win. The Raiders are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games played in December.
Raiders are 5-0 ATS last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
Over is 6-1 last 7 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - DE Richard Seymour (hamstring) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27
San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals
CHARGERS: (-7.5, O/U 43) San Diego needs some help in order to make the playoffs. The Chargers need to win their remaining 2 games, while they hope for Kansas City to lose one of their last two contests. San Diego is 8-6 both SU and ATS this year, as they've had the same exact result both SU and ATS in each game. The Chargers are 2-4 SU and ATS on the road this year. San Diego is 0-2 ATS as a road favorite of a TD or more this season. The Chargers are averaging 27.7 PPG this year, 3rd most in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers has been amazing this year, throwing for more than 4,100 YDS and 29 TD's this year. Rivers is without question a candidate for NFL MVP this year. Defensively, the Chargers are allowing under 260 YPG, the best in the NFL. San Diego will try to make the Bengals as one dimensional as possible tonight. The Chargers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. San Diego is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as the listed favorite. San Diego is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the AFC. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU win. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win. The Chargers are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Chargers are 12-4 ATS last 16 games played in December.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as the listed favorite.
Key Injuries - TE Antonio Gates (foot) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 23
BENGALS: Only 1 team has a worse record in the entire NFL than Cincinnati. The Bengals are 3-11 SU and 5-9 ATS overall this season. Cincinnati is 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS at home this year. The Bengals are 2-2 ATS as the listed home underdog this season. QB Carson Palmer has had an up and down season, with 21 TD's against 18 INT's this year. RB Cendric Benson has rushed for more than 1,000 YDS and 7 TD's this year. The Bengals are averaging 20.1 PPG this year, while allowing 25.9 PPG. However, the Bengals have been lively on defense over the past 2 weeks, as they've played with passion. The Bengals are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as the listed home underdog. Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS against a team with a winning record. The Bengals are 6-16 ATS in their last 22 games overall. The Bengals are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against the AFC. Cincinnati is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS win. The Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win. Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bengals are 3-8 ATS 11 home games.
Under is 16-5 last 21 games played in December.
Key Injuries - WR Chad OchoCinco (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20 (SIDE of the Day)