NFL News and Notes Sunday 12/27

Trend Setters - Week 16
By Kevin Rogers

The regular season has only two weeks left, but the action is still heavy around the NFL. The Week 16 card showcases all but three games involving teams in playoff contention. In this week's version of Trend Setters, we'll feature five contests, including the Giants trying to get back in the NFC playoffs.

Panthers at Giants (-7, 42)

The last time these two teams met up was in Week 16 last season, as New York rallied past Carolina in overtime, 34-28, to secure the top seed in the NFC. Both the Giants and Panthers lost their initial playoff game, but this season New York is the only team in Sunday's matchup still alive for the postseason.

The Giants own an 8-6 record, however, they have won only three of their last nine games. New York is coming off a 45-12 demolishing of Washington on Monday night, but Tom Coughlin's team is in a 'fade' spot according to several situations. The Giants are 0-3 SU/ATS the last three games following a win, while compiling an 0-4 ATS the last four contests as a favorite of at least 4 ½ points.

The Panthers are not scoring a ton of points with Matt Moore at quarterback in place of the injured Jake Delhomme. However, Carolina has covered all three games since Delhomme has been out, while the Panthers are riding a streak of five consecutive 'unders.' John Fox's team has been a solid play over the last two months, covering six of the last eight games. The underdog role has profited nicely, with the Panthers going 5-1 ATS the last six when receiving points.

Bills at Falcons (-9, 41)

Atlanta returns to the friendly confines of the Georgia Dome after pulling out a 10-7 victory over the Jets last week to even its mark at 7-7. The Falcons had plenty of promise to begin the season, but will not return to the postseason after qualifying last season. Buffalo, meanwhile, is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS under interim head coach Perry Fewell, while covering on the road at Jacksonville and Kansas City.

The Falcons went on a nice streak of 'overs' in October and early November, hitting five straight. But since then, Atlanta is in the midst of four consecutive 'unders,' which also coincides with QB Matt Ryan missing nearly three games. Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 3-1 ATS and 4-0 SU at home following a road win.

The Bills are riding a solid 'under' run, finishing 'under' the total in nine of the last 12 games. Buffalo has cashed four of six times this season as a road underdog, while going 6-2 ATS the last eight in that role.

Buccaneers at Saints (-14, 49½)

New Orleans is in an unfamiliar role this week when it hosts lowly Tampa Bay. The Saints are coming off a loss for the first time this season, falling to the Cowboys, 24-17 last Saturday. The Bucs are actually off a win for just the second time in 2009, as Tampa Bay slapped down Seattle, 24-7.

The Saints have struggled as a favorite of at least a touchdown recently, going 1-6 ATS the last seven. Sean Payton's team is only 2-15 ATS the last 17 games as a favorite of at least seven points against division foes. However, New Orleans has been nearly automatic off a defeat, compiling a 9-1 ATS mark since 2007.

Tampa Bay doesn't score many points, but they also haven't allowed a ton of points over the last month. The Bucs have seen the 'under' cash in five straight games, while Tampa Bay has scored a touchdown or less three times in this span. Raheem Morris' squad is a strong 3-1 ATS as a road underdog of at least 9 ½ points this season, with three of the games being decided by three points or less.

Rams at Cardinals (-14, 43½)

For the second straight season, the Cardinals wrapped up the NFC West title, as Arizona plays host to struggling St. Louis. The Rams managed a home cover in last week's loss to the Texans, dropping the worst team in football to 1-13.

St. Louis is currently riding a six-game losing skid, but five of those defeats have come by ten points or less. The Rams have managed to cash four of the last six as an away underdog, but are 0-6 ATS the last six on the road against division opponents.

The Cardinals have owned the Rams the last two seasons at University of Phoenix Stadium, beating St. Louis by a combined score of 82-29. Arizona hasn't been as fortunate in the role of a huge favorite under Ken Whisenhunt, putting together a 2-6 ATS mark when laying at least 9 ½ points.

Lions at 49ers (-12, 41½)

This game isn't the most intriguing on the board, but there are several solid trends when the Lions travel to Candlestick Park to battle the Niners. San Francisco returns home after falling at Philadelphia, but the non-cover actually bodes well for the Niners this week.

Since Mike Singletary took over as coach in San Francisco last October, the Niners have not lost consecutive games ATS. San Francisco is 13-7-3 ATS under Singletary, but is just 5-5-1 ATS when laying points.

Detroit was fantastic in its 0-16 season as double-digit underdogs, but the Lions are only 3-6 ATS when receiving at least ten points. The Lions are 1-5-1 ATS as a road 'dog of at least 9 ½ points, with four of the losses coming by margins of 18, 24, 26, and 45 points.

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Total Talk - Week 16
By Chris David

Week 15 Recap

Finally, we saw the scoreboard get lit up for the first time in four weeks. After watching the ‘under’ go 33-14-1 (70%) in the previous three installments, the total wound up going 8-8 last week. Of the eight winning ‘over’ tickets, seven of them cashed easily with 50 points or more posted on the board. On the year, the ‘under’ stands at 118-102-3 (54%).

Like any other professional sport, handicapping the final weeks of a season is often considered a crapshoot when it comes to picking sides. The same could be said for totals too, since it’s tough to gauge minutes for both starters and backups.

We did look back at the last three seasons in the NFL and tallied up the total numbers for the past two weeks. The ‘over’ has produced a 55-40-1 (58%) ledger during this span and quite frankly, there is no rhyme or reason behind it.

Can anybody top 50?

We’ve been tracking totals of 50-plus points all season long and those following along know that the ‘under’ has gone 9-2 in games where the total was listed at 50 or higher. The Saints have been featured in eight of the 11 contests and the ‘under’ has produced a 6-2 mark on the year.

Once again, New Orleans will face another 50-point total when it hosts Tampa Bay on Sunday. A few offshore outfits have dropped the number to 49.5 but we still believe the number to close at or above 50 by kickoff.

Gamblers chasing the Saints-Over parlay haven’t seen that combination cash in eight straight weeks. New Orleans started the year on a 6-0 ATS run and then the oddsmakers adjusted with double-digit spreads galore and the aforementioned 50-plus totals.

Since the hot start, the Saints are 2-6 ATS and the ‘under’ has gone 5-3. New Orleans blasted Tampa Bay 38-7 on Nov. 22 from Raymond James Stadium and the combined 45 points snuck ‘under’ the closing number of 51. The Bucs actually led 7-0 in this game but their offense (219 yards) couldn’t do anything and rookie quarterback Josh Freeman coughed up the rock four times (3 INTs).

The Bucs and Saints have watched the ‘under’ go 2-0 in their last two encounters, which includes the meeting in November. Prior to this mini-run, the ‘over’ did cash in six consecutive outings but make a note that the highest-scoring game in that run only saw a combined 50 points.

Traveling Woes

Some clubs have been able to muster up points on the road, while others haven’t this year. Usually when you can’t score consistently, it produces a lot ‘under’ tickets and that’s been the case. We’re going to look at a quartet of teams that are traveling this weekend and all four have been golden ‘under’ plays on the road.

Jacksonville at New England (43.5): The Jaguars will be playing their first road game in four weeks when they visit Gillette Stadium on Sunday for a battle against New England. Jacksonville has watched the ‘under’ go 4-2 this year on the road, largely due to the team’s offensive numbers (13.8 PPG). The Patriots’ defense is giving up an average of 17.4 PPG on the road this season but that number has dropped to 13.7 PPG in their seven home games. Combined these numbers with New England’s 7-1 ‘under’ run and we could be seeing another low-scoring affair in this matchup.

N.Y. Jets at Indianapolis (40.5): New York’s offense (22.6 PPG) has been pretty decent on the road but its defense (15.6 PPG) is even better. Even though New York gave up 31 to the Dolphins and Patriots in two games away from home, the Jets have held their other five opponents to an average of 9.4 PPG. The Colts’ offense (28.1 PPG) is one of the best in the league but gamblers might be hesitant backing a club that could rest some starters, including QB Peyton Manning.

St. Louis at Arizona (43.5): If you’ve been following the NFL, then it’s safe to say that you know St. Louis’s offense (11.4 PPG) cannot score at all, especially on the road (8.6 PPG). The Rams have seen the ‘under’ go 5-2 in the Rams’ road contests and the two ‘over’ tickets were very lucky. One game went into overtime and the other tilt saw the Titans put up 47 points in the other matchup. This week, they head to the desert and the ‘under’ has gone 3-0 in the last three meetings. More importantly, St. Louis has scored 10, 19, 16 and 17 in its last four trips to Arizona. The Rams team total this week is hovering between 13 and 14 points, and all signs point to an ‘under’ play.

Houston at Miami (45): When it comes to betting on totals, something has to give in this matchup. The Texans have seen the ‘under’ go 6-1 on the road, but the Dolphins have watched the ‘over’ go 5-1 at Land Shark Stadium. Houston has averaged 23.6 PPG outside of Texas but the totals have been jacked up that a couple of the games have been near misses. Surprisingly, Houston’s defense (20.3 PPG) has been better on the road, which doesn’t help ‘over’ tickets. Miami has put up 22 points or more in every home game and has eclipsed the 30-point plateau on three occasions. The Dolphins haven’t used the “Wildcat” formation as much with Ronnie Brown going on IR, which has led quarterback Chad Henne to air it out early and often. This will be the fourth meeting in the last four years between the two clubs. The ‘under’ has gone 2-1 during this span.

Indoor Fireworks Not Allowed

Nine out of 32 teams in the NFL play in a dome or a dome with a retractable roof. In past seasons, it’s been known that the game speeds up on the indoor turf. However, that hasn’t been the case this year. Only the Rams have seen the ‘over’ (5-2) cash more than the ‘under’ at home and that’s largely due to their defensive efforts (29.7 PPG) from Edward Jones Dome.

Four of the nine clubs will be hosting teams this weekend and we touched on the Saints, Cardinals and Colts above, which leaves us with the Falcons. Ironically, Atlanta has the best ‘under’ mark at 5-2 of all the teams that play indoors.

The Falcons host the Bills on Sunday and the oddsmakers at betED.com have posted a total of 41 points. Looking at the first seven games played at the Georgia Dome this year, every total except one has been listed higher than 41 points. Buffalo does enter this game banged up and reports have said that third-string quarterback Brian Brohm (former Louisville standout) will be making his first start. Brohm does have weapons on the outside but so did Ryan Fitzpatrick and Trent Edwards. The Bills have seen four of their last five games go ‘under’ the number and the lone ‘over’ happened when the offense exploded for 24 points in the final quarter of a 31-14 win over Miami on Nov. 29.

Trend players should note that Atlanta has seen the ‘under’ go 3-0 in all three of its meetings against the AFC East (Dolphins, Patriots, Jets), and the Bills have watched the ‘under’ go 2-1 in their three against teams from the NFC South (Bucs, Saints, Panthers).

MNF in the Windy City

The six-game ‘under’ streak was quickly stopped last Monday when the Giants ripped the Redskins 45-12 on the road. The combined 57 points easily surpassed the closing number of 44. Including this winning ticket, the ‘over’ is now 9-6 under the lights this season.

This week’s matchup will be at Soldier Field when Minnesota and Chicago knock heads for the second time this season. The Vikings pounded the Bears 36-10 at home on Nov. 29 in a game that featured four field goals and a missed extra point. The total was 47 and ‘under’ players caught a fortunate winning ticket.

Minnesota and Chicago both enter this contest with identical 7-1 ‘under’ runs. The Vikings’ offense has shown the ability to put up points but the Bears have been running in mud lately. Chicago has averaged 12.3 PPG in its last six games and if you look at the season log for the club, you’ll see that the Bears only exploded against the Browns (30), Lions (48) and Seahawks (25).

The total is sitting at 41.

Fearless Predictions

It doesn’t happen, but a 3-0 mark was posted in this section last week and fairly easily too. On the year, the Best Bets are 15-14-1 (-40) and our teasers are now 4-10-1 (-600). The deficit is down to -640 after last week’s sweep. Hopefully, we can pull out the broom again. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Texans-Dolphins 45

Best Under: Panthers-Giants 42.5

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Under Browns-Raiders 47.5
Over Dolphins-Texans 37
Under Panthers-Giants 49.5

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Final NFL Two Weeks – What usually happens?
By: Steve Makinen - StatFox

The last two regular season weeks of the NFL season usually present similar situations from year to year. Some teams will be in the spoiler role, some will be looking to wrap up playoff spots, while others are usually in the more favorable spot of considering whether or not to rest starters because they have already accomplished some of their goals. You’ll hear the phrases “meaningless game” or “must-win” thrown about regularly. But what happens in these types of games? Is there any point where lines get over- or underinflated so much where all value is gone? Are there any other specific things to consider from a betting perspective. Read on as I take a look at the recent history of the last two weeks of the NFL’s regular season.

Overall Betting Numbers

Here are some of the general results concerning home/road, underdog/favorite, over/under, etc in Weeks 16 & 17 of the last 10 seasons:

Home teams are just 184-130 SU & 152-154-9 ATS (49.7%) in the last two regular season weeks since ’99.

Double-digit home favorites actually make for a good bet at this point in the season, 24-16 ATS (60%) over the L10 seasons.

Double-digit home underdogs are also a profitable wager in Weeks 16 & 17, 2-6 SU but 6-2 ATS (75%) since ’99.

In general, playing any road favorite at this time of year has not proven a sound strategy, 43-57-3 ATS (43%).

The best line range to back road teams in Weeks 16 & 17 has proven to be +3 to +6.5, as these mid-sized road dogs are 63-33-4 ATS (65.6%) over the L10 seasons.

OVER’s hold a slight edge on UNDER’s when it comes to the last two weeks of the NFL regular season since ’99, 159-153-2 (51.0%).

Strangely, the lower the total has been posted in these late season games, the greater the chance of it going OVER. Totals of 34 or less have netted 14 OVER’s, 8 UNDER’s, (63.6%).

It seems that based upon some of the distinct trends we have seen already that there is some promise for generating even more profitable numbers based upon specific situations. Let’s dig into those now.

Type of Game

Breaking the database up into Conference, Non-Conference, and Division games, I was able to obtain these results:

In Week 16 & 17 games matching two non-divisional conference foes over the last 10 seasons, home teams were 46-48-2 ATS (48.9%). On totals in these games, OVER’s held a 54-41 (56.8%) edge.

In these same games matching AFC vs. NFC foes, the home teams were significantly better, 41-26-1 ATS (61.2%). Results on totals were split right down the middle, 34 OVER’s, 34 UNDER’s.

In divisional games in the last two weeks of the NFL regular season since ’99, home teams struggled to cover the number, 66-80-5 ATS (45.2%). The UNDER held a 78-71-2 edge on totals (52.3%).

There are some clear discrepancies when it comes to familiarity of an opponent in late season games and chances for success. Later on, I’ll combine some of these more potent numbers to see if we can’t generate some reliable late season systems to move forward with in the final two weeks of the ’09 season.

Quality of Teams

Obviously the quality of the teams involved in a late season NFL game has a major influence on the pointspread for that particular game. How does each team record affect the ability to cover that number? Perhaps these tidbits will provide an idea:

Home teams with 11 or more wins in a Week 16 or 17 game are 28-14 ATS (66.7%) since ‘99

Home teams with 6-10 wins in a Week 16 or 17 game are just 71-100-4 ATS (41.5%) over the L10 seasons.

Home teams with between 3-5 wins heading into a Week 16 or 17 game have proven dangerous, 47-30-3 ATS (61.0%).

Don’t waste your time with home teams that have won just two or fewer games heading into games in the last two weeks, 6-10 ATS (37.5%).

Road teams with 11 or more wins in a Week 16 or 17 game are an ugly 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%) since ‘99

Road teams with 6-10 wins in a Week 16 or 17 game have proven to be highly profitable, 97-78-5 ATS (56.1%) over the L10 seasons.

Road teams with between 3-5 wins heading into a Week 16 or 17 game haven’t proven as dangerous as similar home teams, 33-38-1 ATS (46.5%).

Road teams that have won just two or fewer games heading into games in the last two weeks actually own a 7-6 ATS (37.5%) record over the L10 seasons.

How does it work out when comparing the two teams’ records? As you’ll see below, simply backing the team with the lesser record has proven a sound strategy (161-124-7 ATS, 56.5%) late in the season.

When the home team has had a better record than the road team in a Week 16 or 17 game, that host is just 61-78-1 ATS (43.9%) over the L10 seasons.

When the road team has had the better record in Week 16-17 games since ’99, that visitor is just 63-83-6 ATS (43.2%).

The margin of wins between teams has made a big difference as well. When home teams boast four or more wins than their road opponent in Week 16 & 17 games, they are 40-27 ATS (59.7%) since ’99. When they are only 3-games or fewer better than the road foe, the record drops dramatically, 21-51 ATS (29.2%).

In general, it is not a good idea to bet a road team with more wins than their home opponent in Week 16 & 17 games, but when that margin is 5-wins or fewer, their record is a bankroll sinking 44-65 ATS (40.3%).

Extracting Theoretical PPG Lines

Using a simple formula to determine the expected amount of points scored by each team, and then applying 3.5 points for home field advantage, you can create a theoretical pointspread. To determine how many points each team is expected to score, simply take their PPG Scored plus their opponent’s PPG Allowed and divide it by two. Compare the home & road expectations and generate the line. I have done this for all of the Week 16 & 17 games over the last decade and compared the THEORETICAL LINE to the ACTUAL LINE. We are looking for discrepancies and whether or not this “overpricing” produces any trends we can use to profit from in ’09. It is assumed that the higher the difference between the two lines, the more oddsmakers have adjusted for what’s at stake in the game. Take a look:

When the Actual line shows value on the home team when compared to the Theoretical Line, that host is 95-76-3 ATS (55.6%) in Week 16 & 17 games since ’99.

When the Actual line shows value on the road team when compared to the Theoretical Line shows, that visitor is 74-53-5 ATS (58.3%) in Week 16 & 17 games since ’99.

You’ll find the most powerful angle when the Actual Pointspread is OVERPRICED by 8-points or more when compared to our Theoretical Line. In such case, you’ll want to fade the team it is showing value on, as they are just 2-11 ATS since ’99 in Weeks 16 & 17. These are typically the games in which teams are resting players or in “must-win” scenarios. Note that all but one of these opportunities occurred in Week 17.

Do yourself a favor and calculate the Theoretical Lines before submitting your wagers over the next two weeks. Be sure to remember to apply the 3.5-point home field advantage. Unless the margin between the Theoretical and Actual lines exceeds 8-points, take the value the oddsmakers are giving you.

Studying Line Moves

Typically at this time of year, a lot of wagering volume will be taken in at various offshore, Las Vegas, and local establishments. This is due not only because of the fact that the season is winding down, but because bettors believe they know all there is to know about teams by now. Because of this, the last two weeks of the regular season are a good time to follow track how lines are moving off of their opening positions. In general, bettors have proven to be sharper at this time of the year than at earlier points. Take a look at the results of line movements over the last 10 seasons;

In Week 16 & 17 games that have seen the opening line move towards the home team on the final line, bettors are 71-65-3 ATS (52.2%).

In these same games that have seen bettors move the opening line towards the road team, they are 59-54-3 ATS (52.2%).

In Week 16 & 17 games that have seen the opening line move towards the home team on the final line by 2-points or more, bettors are 31-19-1 ATS (62.0%).

In these same games that have seen bettors move the opening line towards the road team by 2-points or more, they are 15-20-1 ATS (42.9%).

On totals, in Week 16 & 17 games in which bettors have favored the over by moving the posted total in that direction, they are 40-43-1 (48.2%).

In those same games where bettors have moved the total towards the under by forcing the posted number to drop throughout the week, they are 84-96 (46.7%).

On totals, in Week 16 & 17 games in which bettors have favored the over by moving the posted total in that direction by 2-points or more, they are 5-14 (26.3%).

In those same games where bettors have moved the total towards the under by forcing the posted number to drop 2-points or more throughout the week, they are 39-39-1 (50.0%).

It’s apparent that bettors are fairly astute at this time of the year on sides, whether it means high percentages of players are forcing the line moves, or it is sharps getting in early and causing the changes. They aren’t quite as strong on totals though. Keep in mind though that many of these games are affected by weather, and a total that might look good on Monday may not be quite as attractive by Sunday as weather forecasts influence betting patterns.

Summary

So far we know to do the following win Weeks 16 & 17:

1) Play home teams in double-digit pointspread games
2) Play road teams as +3 to +6.5 dogs
3) Play home teams in NFC vs. AFC intra-conference clashes
4) Play road teams in divisional games
5) Fade home teams w/ between 6 & 10 wins on the season and three or fewer more wins than their opponent
6) Follow the theoretical line value given by oddsmakers

What happens when we combine some of these variables? Can we come up with one “ultimate angle”? How about this?

Play on Road Underdogs on +3 to +6.5 points in Divisional Games when they have three or fewer less wins than their Home Opponent and the Theoretical Line is showing value on the visitor. (7-0 ATS, 100% since ’99 in Weeks 16 & 17)

While that is a fairly narrow focus and may not even arise in 2009, the six fundamentals listed above should give you a headstart on making these final two weeks of the regular season profitable. Good luck!

Betting the NFL for Week 16
By Doug Upstone

On the next to last weekend of the NFL regular season, several teams are looking to wrap-up division titles; enhance postseason positions or inch closer to making the playoffs. The Cincinnati Bengals can win first AFC Central crown in three years with triumph over collapsing Kansas City. New England returns to the top of the AFC East with a win, but against a much tougher opponent in Jacksonville, who has faint playoff hopes. Baltimore sends Pittsburgh packing with a win and enhances wild card possibilities. Philadelphia still could leap into No. 2 seed by winning and Minnesota turmoil continuing. Denver's in a tough spot at Philly and can't afford to mess up with a thousand 7-7 AFC teams chasing them. The Giants have win last two games and hope division partners can dump Dallas.

Kansas City at Cincinnati

For the Bengals, it's time for closure. They played their best game since mid-October in final second's loss to San Diego last Sunday after losing teammate Chris Henry. On Tuesday, the team attended Henry's funeral and what is sure to be emotional scene at Paul Brown Stadium; Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS) can make it a celebration of his life by being division champions. Besides the fact that Cincinnati is 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite, there is little to suggest that coach Marvin Lewis' team won't get the job done here. They own a 4-2 ATS edge vs. the Chiefs, home teams have won and covered four of the last five, and Kansas City hasn't beaten a team with a winning record on the road since 2006. This series also shows a significant Under trend, 5-1 in the previous six.

Keys to the Game-

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) pulled off the rare feat of failing to win or cover three straight home games and ends the season on the road. The Chiefs best offensive weapon is Jamal Charles, don't give up on him because of his big play capabilities. Quarterback Matt Cassel's completion percentage (54.6) would be three to four percent higher if his receivers didn't lead the NFL in drops. Tapes show 75-80 percent of drops have been on receivers on throws touched and not turned into completions. Catch the ball! In Cincinnati games this season, the underdog is 13-1 ATS and the defensive front seven better do a better job than the 286 yards they allowed to Jerome Harrison or this gets ugly.

With the Bengals wanting to run the ball, the Chiefs 31st ranked run defense is the perfect compliment to Cedric Benson and Larry Johnson toting the pigskin. Do you think coach Lewis will want to give the fired up Johnson a few extra carries vs. his old team, me too. Cincy is 4-1 SU and ATS off a loss this season and will expect its defensive line to collapse K.C. running game and make Cassel throw before he wants against solid corners Leon Hall and Johnathan Joseph.

Carolina at N.Y. Giants

Props to former coach and CBS commentator Bill Cowher, who correctly predicted the Giants would be sharp and ready to play at Washington, which they were in ripping the Redskins 45-12. Toss out the Turkey Day tumble in Denver and Eli Manning has led an offense that has averaged 37 points per contest in four of last five games. New York (8-6, 7-7 ATS) is 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more in two straight games. Carolina is just 6-8 (7-7 ATS) after winning 12 games a season ago and will likely be looking for another quarterback next season. The Panthers impressive 26-7 mauling of Minnesota has them at 40-20 ATS all-time in December. They are also 21-10 ATS as a road dog of seven points or less under coach John Fox. Favorites have won and covered four of the last five series meetings, and four of those also went OVER the total.

Keys to the Game-

Coach Fox's backside is clearly on the hot seat and he will lean on familiar formula in attempt to upset New York. His two-headed monster of DeAngelo Williams and James Stewart need to have a minimum of 30 carries, setting up QB Matt Moore to take deep shots downfield to Steve Smith. Carolina has to bring a few defense wrinkles like they had for the Vikings last week and give Manning at least time for pause. The Panthers are +8 in turnover margin the last three weeks and are 7-0 ATS after three consecutive games with a turnover margin of +2 or better. Keep Julius Peppers motor on high and let his single-handily disrupt Giants offense.

Though Manning has been shaper than a Ginzu knife, the Carolina secondary has been like pickpocket with eight interceptions in the last month. When Eli is feeling it, he's fearless in trying to thread the needle; he'll have to be slightly more cautious vs. this secondary. Coach Tom Coughlin doesn't have to watch tape on Carolina to know their game plan; he just has to have his defense execute to thwart them. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS off a road win the last three years and have to add help if T Dave Diehl struggles with Peppers.

Jacksonville at New England

New England looks to wrap up the AFC East while putting to rest any playoff hopes the Jaguars might still boast. It certainly hasn't been the season as expected for the Patriots (6-7-1 ATS), but they are still 9-5 and figure to be a team that few will want to match up with in the playoffs. They are 7-0 SU and 4-3 ATS at Gillette Stadium, so a win and division title here would ensure a first round home playoff game. Under Bill Belichick, New England boasts a 14-3 SU and 13-4 ATS record in the last two weeks of the regular season. For the 7-7 Jaguars (5-9 ATS), this is a critical contest in which they are trying to improve on a 1-5 ATS skid in December/January road games. Jacksonville has never won in New England, going 0-5 and 2-3 ATS while being outscored by a 27-13 margin.

Keys to the Game-

Jacksonville has lost consecutive home games, to lose control of postseason destiny. Though the playoff picture is far from rosy, a win and Denver and Baltimore losses (certainly a possibility) brings them right smack in the middle of the AFC picture with winnable game at Cleveland to follow. The Jaguars don't have any burners to test beatable Patriots secondary, that means get the ball in the hands of Maurice-Jones Drew every way imaginable. That forces New England to be preoccupied with stopping him and opens the field for others. Everyone knows Tom Brady will pass, however the Pats have made attempt to be much more balanced running the ball. Since surrendering 305 yards on the ground to Tennessee, the Jags have conceded 78.5 YPG via the run. It is imperative Jacksonville defenders tackle well or they will be hurt by Patriots receivers after the catch and fall to 1-11 ATS off a division battle.

Defenses have taken to bracketing Wes Welker and Randy Moss and forcing Tom Brady to look elsewhere to throw the ball. He's been somewhat reluctant to do so and thrown un-Brady like passes for interceptions the last month, especially in the red zone. On the presumption the other pass receivers can get open, a half dozen early completions forces defenses to adjust and makes New England more explosive. The Pats found a pass rush last week with six sacks and Jacksonville is 5-16 SU when David Garrard is taken down three or more times the last three seasons. With the Pats 34-16 ATS as a 3.5 to 10-point favorite, all eyes of MJD and make Garrard a pocket passer.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

After meeting in the AFC title game a year ago at Heinz Field, the most the Ravens and Steelers are hoping for now is a chance at the wildcard spot. A loss would be catastrophic to both. Pittsburgh (4-10 ATS) is 7-7 after ending its five-game losing skid by beating Green Bay on the game's final play, but finishes its schedule vs. two playoff hopefuls. Baltimore is 8-6 SU and ATS, but plays its last two games on the road, where it is just 2-4 (3-3 ATS) in '09. This will be the second meeting of the season between these AFC North foes, with the Ravens having won the first, 20-17 in overtime, in a game where the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger. Pittsburgh is just 1-4 SU & ATS in division games this year. Eight of the last nine physical battles these teams have played in Pittsburgh surprisingly went OVER the total. The visiting team is 15-5-1 ATS in this series.

Keys to the Game -

Second year starter Joe Flacco has rebounded from mid-season slump and has been far more accurate the last five weeks, except for Monday night date in Wisconsin. With Steelers secondary cheapjack, Flacco will have chances to light up Pittsburgh down the field like many have with no Troy Polamalu. Offensive tackles Jared Gaither and Michael Oher have to play great and control free-lancing linebackers from limiting Flacco's time in the pocket. Baltimore is not as prolific defensively as in the past, but they still can play very well within the parameters of certain scores as 15-4 ATS record proves when the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last two seasons.

The importance of Polamalu is shown in deep balls. During Super Bowl season, only two passes were completed for 40 or more yards, in 2009, nine such plays have been made. The safeties have to be in better position as the ball heads towards receiver's hands. How about the offensive line lending a hand and giving Robert Mendenhall someplace to run and not have Big Ben have to throw so many times and take all those hits. The Steelers are 12-2 ATS in home games after gaining 300 or more passing yards in last game, but just 3-10 ATS as favorites.

Denver at Philadelphia

After taking care of San Francisco, the Eagles (9-5 ATS) continue to roll and hope to wrap the NFC East title with a win here vs. Denver. Anything but however, could set up a winner take all matchup with the Cowboys next week in Arlington. Philly has won five straight games to move to 10-4 on the season, producing 32.5 points per game during that stretch. The Eagles' Week 17 win over the Cowboys snapped a five-game ATS losing streak in home finales. After the shocking loss to Oakland, this game is even more important to Denver (8-6 SU & ATS), who can keep control of its wildcard destiny with a win. The Broncos are on a 1-4 SU and ATS skid when visiting NFC foes, including a 23-17 loss in Washington in Week 10. The home team is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak in this AFC/NFC series.

Keys to the Game-

Denver is 22nd against the run and has become increasingly susceptible to cut-back runs. With Brian Westbrook reportedly ready to return, the Broncos have to protect the backside more diligently. The Denver defense coaches have to create schemes to free up Elvis Dumervil to chase Donovan McNabb. In the Broncos eight wins, Dumervil had 13 sacks, in the five losses, just two. Without disruption, Denver falls to 2-11 ATS vs. passing teams with a completion percentage of 61 percent or better. To upset the Eagles, the Denver offense has to do better than 35.7 percent on third down (23rd) and not settling for field goal attempts.

The Eagles commitment to the run has lead to five-game win streak. They have average 115.2 yards a contest on over 28 carries. Prior to OC Marty Mornhinweg change in philosophy, Philadelphia had six less carries a game. This has opened the field even further for big play specialists like DeSean Jackson. Though Denver is second against the pass and has Champ Bailey, watch for Philly to have Jackson line-up in the slot several times and put him in motion to keep Bailey and Denver secondary off guard. McNabb scorched the 49ers last week for 306 yards passing and the Eagles are a high-flying 13-3 ATS after accumulating 250 yards thru the air. Like most quarterbacks, Kyle Orton doesn't like defenders in his face when throwing, expect Philadelphia to work the A-gaps hard with line stunts and blitzes.

Week 16 NFL Games

Seahawks (5-9) @ Packers (9-5)-- Green Bay had five-game win streak ended by last-second Roethlisberger TD pass last week; Packers won four of its last five home games- they're 4-3 vs spread as home favorite. Pack held last seven opponents under 100 rushing yards (average of 67.7 ypg); Rodgers has been sacked only seven times in last five games (41 times in first nine). Seahawks lost last two games 34-7/24-7; eight of their nine losses are by 11+ pts, with Seattle 0-6 as road underdog this year. Four of last five Seattle games, three of last four Packer games stayed under the total. NFC North home favorites are 4-8 against spread.

Raiders (5-9) @ Browns (3-11)-- Oakland (0-4) was outscored 115-23 in four games that followed its first four wins; this is fourth road game in five weeks for Raider team that won its last two road games, and is 3-2 in last five games. Browns covered last five games, winning last two 13-6/41-34; Cribbs ran two kicks back for TDs last week. Browns ran ball for 212.3 ypg last three weeks, with Harrison for 286 last week, 3rd-best in NFL history. Unsure what effect Holmgren hiring will have on team rest of year. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs spread in non-division tilts. AFC North home favorites are 7-6 vs spread. Four of last five Oakland games went over the total.

Chiefs (3-11) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Toughest of weeks for Bengal squad that had to go to Louisiana for Henry's funeral Tuesday; Cincy lost last two games but won last four home games, allowing 12.3 ppg (five TDs on 41 drives)- they're 0-4 vs spread as home favorite this year. Underdogs covered 12 of 13 Bengal games, with one pick 'em. Chiefs lost last four games (0-4 vs spread) by 29-31-6-7 points, allowing average of 36 ppg (12 TDs on 46 drives). Four of last five Chief games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under. AFC West road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread. AFC North favorites are 8-10 vs spread, 7-6 at home.

Bills (5-9) @ Falcons (7-7)-- Brohm gets first NFL start at QB against Falcon team that needs two more wins to have back/back winning years for first time in franchise history. Bills are 3-4 on road, 4-1 as road underdog, losing away games by 1-28-24-3 points- only twice in seven road games has Buffalo lost by more than a FG. Atlanta is 2-4 in last six games, losing last two at home, both with Redman at QB- they're 4-2 vs spread as favorite, 4-1 at home. NFC South favorites are 10-7 vs spread, 7-5 at home. AFC East underdogs are 7-9 vs spread, 7-5 on road. Last four Atlanta games, eight of last ten Buffalo tilts stayed under the total.

Texans (7-7) @ Dolphins (7-7)-- Elimination game in crowded AFC Wild Card race. Houston is 6-2 outside its division, winning last five non-divisional tilts; they're 4-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdog (only non-cover was a 28-21 loss at Arizona, when they tied game 21-all after being down 21-0 at half'). Miami is 4-2 at home, but is favored at home for just second time this year- Dolphins' last three games were all decided by four or less points. Texans outscored last three opponents 31-6 in second half. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 this season. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. Six of Houston's last seven games stayed under the total.

Panthers (6-8) @ Giants (8-6)-- Big Blue needs two wins and help to get into playoffs; they scored 31-38-45 points in last three games (13 TDs on last 31 drives), are 2-3 in last five home games, 1-4 as home favorite, with home wins by 6-37-3-7 points. This is likely Giants' last game in this stadium. Carolina coach Fox could very well be Giants' defensive coordinator next year; Panther defense allowed four TDs on last 45 drives. Carolina is 2-5 on road, 3-3 as a road dog, losing away games by 8-14-10-11-10 points. NFC South road dogs are 8-6 against spread; NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Carolina's last five games all stayed under the total.

Buccaneers (2-12) @ Saints (13-1)-- Unlikely results last week, with Saints losing, Bucs winning. Saints are 4-3 as home favorite, with four home wins by 14+ points. New Orleans won first meeting 38-7 in Week 11; Saints had 183 passing yards, 187 rushing with four takeaways (+4). Bucs had scored three TDs on last 48 drives before upsetting Seahawks 24-7 last week; they're 4-4 as road underdog, losing away games by 13-3-19-28-2-3-10 points. NFC North home favorites are 2-3 vs spread in division games. Four of last five Saint tilts, last five Tampa Bay games stayed under the total. Saints need to win here to stay ahead of Vikings in race for home field thru NFC playoffs.

Jaguars (7-7) @ Patriots (9-5)-- Jags lost three of last four games; too bad they lost twice to Colts by total of six points- they're 3-3 as road dog, losing away games by 2-41-17-17 points (won at Texans/Jets). New England won all seven home games- they're 4-3 as home favorite, winning home games by 1-16-6-59- 10-17-10 points. Four of last five Jaguar games, last four Patriot games stayed under total. AFC East home favorites are 6-5 against spread. AFC South road underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. Patriots are 2-4 if they allow 20+ points, 7-1 if they allow less. Jaguars scored 20+ twice in their last five games. This game is way more important to Jacksonville, whose season depends in it.

Ravens (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Pitt snapped five-game skid with unlikely win last week, scoring on last play of game for 37-36 win (Big Ben passed for 503 yards). Steelers lost 20-17 at Baltimore in Week 12 (-7), in game Big Ben was out for (backup Dixon was 12-26/145 passing). Ravens are 2-4 on road, with wins at Chargers/Browns- they're 2-3 vs spread as the dog. Baltimore won its last two games 48-3/31-7, but foes were doormats Chicago/Detroit. Seven of last eight Baltimore games stayed under total. Underdogs are 8-2 vs spread in AFC North games this season. This is the pivotal game of weekend in playoff race; Steeler win creates wild scenario going into Week 17.

Broncos (8-6) @ Eagles (10-4)-- Red-hot Philly won last five games (4-1 vs spread), with last three wins by 27-7-14 points; they've won five of last six home games, are 3-2 as home favorite, winning home games by 20-19-23-3-14 points. Denver needs wins to stay in front of pack in Wild Card chase; they're 2-6 in last eight games, losing last two games 28-16/20-19- they're 2-2 as road dog, with road losses by 23-10-12 points. AFC West road dogs are 6-8 vs the spread. NFC East home favorites are 8-7. Bronco DB Dawkins is one of all-time great Eagle players; he returns to Linc here. Five of seven Eagle road tilts went over the total.

Rams (1-13) @ Cardinals (9-5)-- Playoff-bound Arizona was killing Rams at half in first meeting 21-3, but Warner sat out second half (concussion) and it got close late, with Rams throwing pass into end zone on last play to try and tie game (Arizona won 21-13, -9). St Louis lost last six games (5-2 vs spread in last seven); they're 4-3 as road underdog, losing away games by 28-2-35-3-8-40 points. Cardinals clinched division title, could still move up to #3 seed for playoffs; they're 2-3 as home favorite, winning by 7-11-13 points (3-3 SU at home). Home favorites are 4-2 vs spread in NFC West games. Four of the last five Arizona games stayed under the total.

Lions (2-12) @ 49ers (6-8)-- QB Stanton gets first start for Lions; he played second half vs Arizona last week, when Detroit rallied from 17-0 deficit to tie Redbirds before losing 31-24. Lions are 1-5-1 as road underdog, losing on road by 18-24-26-12-17-10-45 points- they lost last four games overall, allowing an average of 34 ppg (allowed 10 TDs on last 25 drives). 49ers are 4-2 as favorite this year, winning home games by 13-35-4-17-5 points, losing to Falcons and Cardinals at Candlestick. NFC North road dogs are 2-8 vs spread outside of its division; NFC West home favorites are 5-5. Three of 49ers' last four games stayed under the total.

Jets (7-7) @ Colts (14-0)-- No idea how long Manning, other starters playing here, but fact that they've had 10 days since last game has to increase chances of their playing longer here. Jets had 3-game win streak snapped with an ugly home loss to Falcons last week; they're 4-3 on road, 1-2 as road dog, losing by 14 at Saints, 4 at Miami, 17 at Patriots. Jet defense allowed just two TDs on last 48 drives, but facing high-powered Colts (15 TDs on last 38 drives) is a major step up in class. Indy is 3-4 as home favorite, winning its home games by 2-17-4-3-1-10-12 points. AFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-division games. Last four Jet games stayed under total.

Cowboys (9-5) @ Redskins (4-10)-- Washington had covered five games in a row before 45-12 debacle vs Giants Monday night; Redskins are 3-4 at home, beating Rams/Bucs/Denver- they're 6-3 vs spread as underdog, 2-2 at home. Dallas could miss playoffs if they slip up, Giants win twice; they beat Skins 7-6 in first meeting (-10) in Week 11 running ball for 153 yards but not scoring until 2:41 was left in game. Dallas is 4-3 on road; they're 1-3 as road favorite, winning away games by 13-6-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Underdogs are 8-2 against spread in NFC East games, 2-2 at home. Seven of last eight Washington games went over the total. Six of last seven Dallas games stayed under.

Monday, December 28

Vikings (11-3) @ Bears (5-9)-- Minnesota lost last two road games by 13-19 points (three TDs on last 23 road drives); they've allowed 27.3 ppg their last four road games (1-3). Vikings waxed Chicago 36-10 four weeks ago (-10.5), outrushing Bears 159-43, converting 12-18 on 3rd down (Favre was 32-48/378 passing). Cutler has been awful at night, Bears have been terrible since its bye, losing eight of last ten games (0-7 vs spread last seven games)- they're 1-7 vs spread as underdog this year, losing home games by 20-4-7 points (4-3 SU). Favorites are 7-2-1 vs spread in NFC North games, 3-0 on road. Last six tilts for both teams stayed under the total.

NFL Week 16 Weather Report

Seattle Seahawks at Green Bay Packers

It’s perfect football weather in Wisconsin – which means snow and lots of it. The forecast is calling for snow showers and temperatures in the 20s at Lambeau Field. The Seahawks are used to bad weather, but playing in the snow is different from playing in the rain.

Jacksonville Jaguars at New England Patriots

This isn’t the Sunshine State. Jacksonville finds itself in a winter rain storm in New England. The forecast is calling for rain and temperatures to dip to low 40s. The sloppy turf at Gillette Stadium could make running tough for Maurice Jones-Drew. Tom Brady and the boys seem to relish playing in weather like this.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cincinnati Bengals

The forecast is calling for snow showers in Ohio Sunday afternoon. Adding to the slick surfaces will be a 13-mph wind blowing WSW from corner to corner, chilling the field into the low 30s. The snow should make running slick and the wind could carry a couple passes off their mark. The under 40 points is looking very tempting.

Oakland Raiders at Cleveland Browns

For a game this bad, you would only expect the weather to match the talent. While the Raiders and Browns stink it up on the field, Mother Nature does her worst with snow, cold and wind. Flurries and a 12-mph breeze will drop the temperature in Cleveland Stadium into the low 20s come Sunday afternoon.

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Even California can’t escape the bad weather this weekend. The forecast in San Francisco is calling for rain Sunday afternoon. The Lions are used to the dry confines of Ford Field and the trip to the West Coast could have Detroit feeling a little soggy. The Niners have played under the total in four straight games.

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears

They don’t call it the Windy City for nothing. The early forecast in Chicago calls for strong 23-mph winds ripping through Soldier Field Monday night. Temperatures will fall into the low 30s, taking some of the punch out of each team’s passing attack. Brett Favre may find himself handing the ball off to Adrian Peterson more than looking down field.

Seattle (5-9 SU and ATS) at Green Bay (9-5, 9-4-1 ATS)

The Packers, looking to solidify their wild-card spot in the NFC playoffs, return home from a two-game road swing to face the struggling Seahawks at Lambeau Field.

Green Bay lost a wild contest at Pittsburgh 37-36 last Sunday on a Ben Roethlisberger TD pass as time expired, ending the Packers’ five-game SU run. But the Packers cashed as a 2½-point pup, moving to 5-0-1 ATS in their last six games. Green Bay is putting up 378.8 ypg (fifth) and 27.1 ppg (seventh), and over the last six games, QB Aaron Rodgers has tossed 12 TDs against just two INTs – and both picks came in a 27-14 win over Baltimore.

Seattle got drubbed for the second straight week, this time at home by one of the worst teams in the league in a 24-7 loss to Tampa Bay as a 6½-point favorite, following a 34-7 beatdown at Houston as a seven-point pup. The Seahawks are 2-4 SU and ATS in their last six games, getting held to 20 points or less five times in that stretch, and they are averaging just 18.4 ppg (22nd) while allowing 23.2 ppg (23rd).

Green Bay has won and covered the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 27-17 road decision catching one point in October of last season. Nine months earlier in the divisional playoffs, the Pack rumbled to a 42-20 blowout home as a nine-point chalk. Green Bay is 2-0-2 ATS in the last four clashes.

The Packers are just 2-10-2 ATS in their last 14 as a home chalk of more than 10 points, but they are on a bevy of positive pointspread streaks, including the aforementioned 5-0-1 overall, 3-0-1 laying points, 3-0-1 against losing teams, 4-1 after a SU loss and 4-1 in December. On the flip side, the Seahawks are on ATS dives of 4-9 overall, 1-7 in roadies, 0-8 catching points on the road, 0-6 against winning teams and 3-7 in conference action.

The over for Green Bay is on tears of 23-7 after a spread-cover, 21-8-1 against NFC opponents, 12-5 as a home chalk and a lengthy 47-23-2 against losing teams. And in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1). However, Seattle is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall and 4-1-1 in December.

ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY

Oakland (5-9, 7-7 ATS) at Cleveland (3-11, 8-6 ATS)

The Browns pursue a surprising third straight victory when they play host to the Raiders, who have posted three big upsets in the past five weeks.

Cleveland outlasted Kansas City 41-34 Sunday in a shootout as a one-point road pup, winning SU for the second week in a row and cashing for the fifth straight week. Despite the Browns’ recent uptick, they are still 30th in the league in scoring (14.2 ppg) and 31st in total yards (255.8 ypg), and their turnover margin of minus-14 is the worst in the league.

QB Brady Quinn (right foot) is done for the season, so Derek Anderson will return to the starting role for Cleveland.

Oakland shocked Denver with a last-minute TD to claim a 20-19 road win as an overwhelming 13½-point ‘dog – two weeks after a road upset of Pittsburgh, and four weeks after a home win over first-place Cincinnati. However, the Raiders have been inconsistent at best all year, following up all four of their previous wins with double-digit losses (0-4 ATS). Oakland remains dead last in total offense (253.1 ypg) and 31st in scoring (12.5 ppg).

These teams have met five times this decade, with Cleveland covering in the last four (3-1 SU). Most recently, Oakland won 26-24, but fell short as a three-point home favorite in 2007. The SU winner is 4-1 ATS in the last five contests.

Along with their current 5-0 ATS surge, the Browns are on pointspread rolls of 4-0 against the AFC, 10-4 against losing teams and 9-4 following a SU win, but they are also in an 0-4 ATS rut in the rare role of favorite, and they’ve gone just 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 home games. The Raiders have cashed in four of their last five in conference action, though they are on ATS declines of 0-5 after a spread-cover, 0-4 after a SU win, 4-20-2 as a pup of three points or less, 16-37-1 against losing teams and 18-38 in December.

Cleveland is on “under” stretches of 8-2 against losing teams, 7-2 laying points, 12-4 as a home chalk and 10-3-1 in December, and the under for Oakland is on streaks of 5-1-1 against losing teams and 9-3 with the Raiders getting three points or less. However, the over for Tom Cable’s troops is on runs of 4-1 overall (all as a pup), 4-0 in December and 7-3 after a SU win.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Kansas City (3-11, 5-9 ATS) at Cincinnati (9-5, 7-7 ATS)

The Bengals will try to snap a two-game skid and clinch the AFC North crown when they tackle the lowly Chiefs at Paul Brown Stadium.

Cincinnati, playing three days after the death of wideout Chris Henry, gave San Diego all it could handle before losing 27-24, giving up a 52-yard field goal in the final seconds. But the Bengals covered as a 6½-point road pup, snapping a four-game ATS skid (2-2 SU). Cincy’s defense rates fifth in yards allowed (300.5) and is tied for third in points allowed (17.4 ppg), helping compensate for a mediocre offense that’s netting just 20.6 ppg (17th).

Kansas City has dropped four in a row SU and ATS, including Sunday’s 41-34 home loss to Cleveland as a one-point chalk. It was the Chiefs’ highest scoring output of the season, but they are still averaging just 17.1 ppg (26th), having been held to 16 points or less nine times. Plus, K.C.’s defense is giving up the second-most points in the NFL (27.4 ppg).

These teams met in the regular-season finale last year, also in Cincinnati, with the Bengals winning 16-6 as a three-point favorite. In fact, they’ve met each of the past four seasons, alternating SU and ATS wins, with the SU winner going 4-0 ATS. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes.

The underdog has covered in 13 of Cincy’s 14 games this year, and the Bengals come into this one on ATS slides of 1-4 overall, 0-5 against losing teams and 7-20-1 as a favorite (0-4 as a home chalk), but they are on a 4-1 ATS upswing coming off a SU loss. The Chiefs are on a 9-2 ATS run as a ‘dog of more than 10 points, but they’re otherwise on a bevy of pointspread dives, including the aforementioned 0-4 overall, 0-5 in December, 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after a non-cover and 4-9 following a SU loss.

Cincinnati is on a bundle of “under” tears, including 5-2 overall, 18-7-1 at home, 8-0 as a home favorite, 13-3 in December and 7-2-1 against losing teams, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry. Conversely, the over for Kansas City is on sprees of 4-1 overall, 4-0-1 against winning teams, 5-1-1 after a non-cover and 7-3-2 with the Chiefs a pup.

ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI

Buffalo (5-9, 7-6-1 ATS) at Atlanta (7-7, 9-5 ATS)

Two teams playing for nothing but pride get together when the Falcons face the Bills in a non-conference contest at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan hit tight end Tony Gonzalez with a short TD pass on fourth down to rally past the Jets 10-7 last week as a 5½-point road ‘dog, covering for the second straight week and ending what proved to be a season-killing 1-4 SU slide. The Falcons, who went 11-5 SU last year and reached the playoffs as a wild card, have numbers befitting tehir mediocre record, averaging 22.3 ppg (16th) and 332.8 ypg (18th), while allowing 22.3 ppg (20th) and 371.3 ypg (28th).

Buffalo lost to New England 17-10 Sunday at home to get a push as a seven-point home underdog. The Bills (3-1-1 ATS last five games) have now alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games. Buffalo is averaging a meager 16.1 ppg (28th), scoring less than that nine times this year, while averaging 271.5 ypg (30th).

In two meetings with Buffalo this decade, Atlanta is 2-0 SU and 1-0-1 ATS, including a 24-16 road win getting three points in September 2005.

The Falcons are on pointspread runs of 5-2 at home, 4-1 as a Georgia Dome chalk and 4-0 giving 3½ to 10 points, though they’ve gone 1-4 ATS in their last five starts following a SU win. The Bills sport a handful of positive ATS streaks, including 8-2 in roadies, 6-2 as a road pup and 4-1 following a SU loss.

The under for Atlanta is on surges of 4-0 overall, 5-1 in December and 4-1 at the dome, and Buffalo is on “under” rolls of 8-2 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-1 on the highway and 6-2 with the Bills a ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA and UNDER

Houston (7-7, 6-7-1 ATS), at Miami (7-7, 8-6 ATS)

The Texans travel to LandShark Stadium to take on the Dolphins in a battle of two teams clinging by their fingernails to stay in the AFC postseason picture.

Houston barely held off a dismal St. Louis squad 16-13 Sunday, falling far short as a 14-point road chalk. The Texans have followed up a four-game losing skid (1-3 ATS) with back-to-back wins to remain alive in the wild-card race. QB Matt Schaub (25 TD passes, 13 INTs) paces the No. 2 passing offense (291.4 ypg), and the Texans average 377.4 total ypg (seventh) and 23.4 ppg (11th). The defense is fair, ranking 12th in total yards allowed (322.7 ypg) while giving up 20.4 ppg (14th).

Miami’s 4-1 SU run to get into playoff contention ended with a 27-24 overtime loss at Tennessee last week, though it cashed as a 4½-point ‘dog. The Dolphins, on a 3-0 ATS uptick, sport the NFL’s fourth-best running attack (148 ypg) for an offense netting 22.6 ppg (14th), but their defense rates 18th in total yards allowed (341.4 ypg) and 24th in points allowed (23.8 ppg). Miami also has a minus-7 turnover margin (25th).

These teams have met each of the last three years and four times overall dating to 2003, with Houston going 4-0 SU and 2-2 ATS. Miami covered in the past two meetings, including last year’s 29-28 loss as a three-point road pup. The visitor is 3-1 ATS in those four contests, and the underdog has cashed in all four games.

The Texans are in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 2-5-1 following a SU win, but they are on spread-covering rolls of 7-2 getting points, 6-1 as a road pup and 17-8 in December. The Dolphins are on ATS surges of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in December and 7-1 within the AFC, but they are 15-37-1 ATS in their last 53 games at Land Shark and 7-24 ATS in their last 31 as a favorite.

Houston is on “under” runs of 6-1 overall, 6-0 on the highway, 5-1 as a road pup, 7-1 in December and 9-2 after a SU win, and the under is 5-2 in Miami’s last seven December games. The over for Miami is on rolls of 5-1 at home, 11-4 following a SU loss and 4-0 with the Dolphins favored.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Carolina (6-8, 7-7) at N.Y. Giants (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS)

The Giants, scrambling to keep their playoff hopes alive, take on the upset-minded Panthers at the Meadowlands.

New York, on the outside looking in for the postseason at the moment, hammered Washington 45-12 Monday night as a three-point road chalk and has alternated SU wins and losses over its last six games (2-4 ATS). The Giants have a disparate defense, allowing just 306.8 ypg (seventh) but also giving up 24.4 ppg (26th). Prior to shutting down the Redskins on Monday, New York had allowed at least 21 points in nine straight games, with four of those teams scoring 30 or more. Meanwhile, the Giants’ offense is averaging 382.7 ypg (fifth) and 27.6 ppg (sixth).

Carolina upended Minnesota 26-7 as a heavy nine-point home underdog Sunday night to cover for the third straight week. The victory ended a string of four games in which the Panthers scored 17 points or less, but they still average just 17.9 ppg (24th) and 325.3 ypg (20th), while the defense allows 20.6 ppg (16th.) and 323.1 ypg (13th).

New York has won and covered in the last two meetings in this rivalry, including a 34-28 overtime victory as a 3½-point home chalk last December, a game that decided the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in the playoffs. The SU winner is 5-0 ATS in the last five clashes, and the chalk is on a 4-1 ATS run.

Despite Monday’s rout, the Giants remain on a handful of negative ATS streaks, including 2-7 overall, 1-5 laying points, 1-4 at home and 2-5 within the NFC, though they are also on pointspread upticks of 5-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in December, 19-7 after a SU win and 23-9 following a spread cover. The Panthers sport positive ATS runs of 6-2 overall, 5-0 against winning teams, 6-0 against NFC foes, 5-1 as a pup and 4-1 on the road, and they are 39-19-1 ATS in their last 59 December games.

The over for New York is on tears of 4-1 overall, 5-0 in the NFC, 4-1 in December, 6-2-1 against losing teams and 5-2 at the Meadowlands. On the flip side, the under for Carolina is on stretches of 5-0 overall, 4-0 after a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 4-1 with the Panthers a road pup. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last five meetings.

ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS

Tampa Bay (2-12, 5-9 ATS) at New Orleans (13-1, 8-6 ATS)

The Saints, looking to bounce back from their first loss of the year, take on the dismal division rival Buccaneers at the Superdome.

New Orleans’ rally came up short in a 24-17 Saturday night loss to Dallas as a 7½-point home favorite, ending the Saints’ chances at a perfect season while also giving them their third straight ATS setback. New Orleans, averaging 35.8 ppg prior to last week, failed to score at least 24 points for the first time all year. However, it still leads the NFL at 34.5 ppg and 419.6 ypg. The Saints lost the turnover battle 3-0 against the Cowboys, yet are still third in the league with a plus-13 margin.

Tampa Bay scored a dominating road upset last week for just its second win of the year, routing Seattle 24-7 catching 6½ points to end a five-game SU skid (2-3 ATS). Despite that scoring “outburst,” the Bucs are still averaging just 15.3 ppg and 282.5 ypg, rating 29th in the league in both categories, while giving up 25.9 ppg (29th) and 365.4 ypg (26th).

New Orleans is on a 3-0 ATS surge in this rivalry (2-1 SU), including a 38-7 blowout as a 10½-point home chalk on Nov. 22, giving the SU winner a 5-1 ATS mark in the last six clashes. However, Tampa is 5-1 ATS on its last six trips to the dome, and the road team is on a 10-3 ATS tear in the last 13 matchups.

The Saints have struggled at the betting window lately, shouldering negative ATS streaks of 2-6 overall (all as a chalk), 0-4 in December, 1-6 inside the conference and 1-4 in the NFC South. However, they’ve been an excellent bounce-back team, going 11-1 ATS in their last dozen following a SU loss, and they are on a 7-3 ATS run as a home chalk.

Tampa Bay, meanwhile, is on ATS purges of 5-11 overall, 1-5 after a spread-cover, 1-4 in December and 2-5 in division play, and the Bucs are just 2-16 SU (6-12 ATS) in their last 18 games, dating to last season.

New Orleans has stayed under the total in four of its last five (all as a favorite), but it remains on “over” runs of 10-3 in December, 14-5-1 in the Big Easy and 19-7-1 in NFC action. Also, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last eight meetings. Conversely, the under for Tampa Bay is on streaks of 5-0 overall (all as a pup), 4-1 in the NFC South and 9-3 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ORLEANS and OVER

Jacksonville (7-7, 5-9 ATS) at New England (9-5, 6-7-1 ATS)

The Patriots aim to wrap up the AFC East and stay in contention for the No. 3 seed when they meet the Jaguars at Gillette Stadium.

New England topped Buffalo 17-10 to get a push as a seven-point road chalk Sunday, winning for the second straight week while ending a three-game ATS hiccup. The Patriots are still eighth in the league in scoring (26.1 ppg), but they’ve put up 21 points or less in four straight games, after scoring 25 or more in eight of their first 10 outings. New England is No. 2 in total offense (398.3 ypg), and the defense allows 314.9 ypg (10th) and just 17.4 ppg (tied for third).

Jacksonville is on an untimely two-game SU and ATS skid, though it still harbors the best playoff hopes among the six AFC teams tied at 7-7. In a Thursday night home shootout last week with unbeaten Indianapolis, the Jags lost 35-31 as a 3½-point ‘dog, falling to 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four starts. Jacksonville is averaging 341.6 ypg (15th) and netting just 19 ppg (21st).

New England has won three in a row in this rivalry (2-1 ATS), including a 31-20 divisional playoff victory two seasons ago, though Jacksonville covered as a 13½-point road pup. The Pats are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, and the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run.

The Patriots are on ATS upswings of 34-16-1 laying 3½ to 10 points and 4-0 at home as a chalk of the same price. The Jaguars are on several pointspread skids, including 2-8 overall, 0-4 against winning teams, 1-4 in December, 3-8 after a SU loss, 2-5 after a non-cover and 2-5 in the AFC.

New England is on “under” streaks of 4-0-1 overall, 4-0 in December, 5-0-1 laying points, 5-1 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. Similarly, Jacksonville is on “under” runs of 4-1 overall, 7-2 in roadies, 8-2 as a road pup and 6-2 in December, though the over for the Jags is on upturns of 5-1 after a SU loss and 13-5-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW ENGLAND

Baltimore (8-6 SU and ATS) at Pittsburgh (7-7, 4-10 ATS)

The Ravens make the trip to Heinz Field to meet the bitter rival Steelers, with both participants in last year’s AFC title game fighting to gain a spot in the AFC playoffs this time around.

Baltimore has posted two straight blowout home wins the past two weeks, albeit against Detroit and Chicago, respectively. On Sunday, the Ravens rolled 31-7 as a 10½-point favorite, following a 48-3 beatdown of the Lions laying 14 points. After five straight games of scoring 20 points or less, Baltimore has its offense back on track and is averaging 25 ppg for the year (ninth), while allowing just 16.1 ppg, second only to the Jets’ 15.8 ppg.

Pittsburgh outlasted Green Bay 37-36 as a 2½-point home chalk on a Ben Roethlisberger-to-Mike Wallace TD pass as time expired. It was a win the defending Super Bowl champion Steelers desperately needed after an 0-5 SU freefall, though they failed to cover for the third straight week. Roethlisberger threw for an outrageous career-best 503 yards, going 29 of 46 with three TDs and no INTs.

This matchup features two of the league’s better defenses, with Baltimore yielding 299.8 ypg (fourth) and Pittsburgh allowing 304.2 ypg (sixth). Four weeks ago, the Ravens edged the Steelers 20-17 in overtime, going off as a nine-point chalk due to Roethlisberger sitting out with concussion symptoms.

The Steelers have covered the last three in this rivalry, including a 23-14 home win giving six points in the AFC title game last year. The underdog is on a 4-1 ATS run in the last five meetings.

The Ravens are on spread-covering surges of 19-9 overall, 6-1 as a road pup of up to three points, 4-1 in December and 13-6 after a spread-cover, but they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven AFC North games and are 1-4 ATS in their last five following a SU win. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 against winning teams, but they are otherwise on ATS dives of 1-5 overall, 0-5 laying points, 1-4 at home (all as a chalk), 3-13 giving three or less at Heinz, 1-4 in division play and 2-6 after a SU win.

The under for Baltimore is on stretches of 6-2 overall, 5-1 in the AFC and 4-1 in the division, but the over is on an 8-2-1 tear with the Ravens a road ‘dog. Furthermore, the over for Pittsburgh is on a boatload of rolls, including 4-1 overall, 50-22-1 at home, 20-7 laying three points or less and 19-8 against AFC opposition. Finally, in this heated rivalry, the total has gone high in six of the last seven clashes overall and five straight at Heinz Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

St. Louis (1-13, 7-7 ATS) at Arizona (9-5, 8-6 ATS)

The defending conference champion Cardinals, who have already clinched their second straight NFC West but who still have a shot at the No. 3 playoff seed, take on the lowly Rams at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona held off another dismal team last week, beating Detroit 31-24 but coming up way short as an overwhelming 14-point chalk in failing to cash for the second straight game. The Cardinals, who have alternated SU wins and losses over their last five games, have 10 turnovers over their past two games (three last week) and are at a minus-8 margin for the season (26th). Still, they are 10th in the league in scoring at 24.1 ppg.

St. Louis gave Houston a scare Sunday, losing 16-13 as a hefty 14-point home underdog for its sixth consecutive SU loss (4-2 ATS). The Rams’ problem is an inability to score averaging a league-worst 11.4 ppg, and the effort against the Titans marked the eighth time they’ve been held to 13 points or less this season. The Rams are also allowing 26.9 ppg (30th).

Arizona has won six in a row against St. Louis (4-2 ATS), including a 21-13 road victory Nov. 22, though the Rams covered as a 9½-point pup to halt a 3-0 ATS run by the Cardinals in this rivalry. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five clashes, and the underdog is on a 9-3 ATS roll.

The Cardinals are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a chalk, but the ATS streaks turn upward from there, including 13-6 overall, 4-1 after a pointspread defeat and 7-3 at home. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games (all as a pup) and are on a pair of 4-1 ATS runs – in conference play and in December – but they are on a 1-23 SU freefall (11-13 ATS), and they carry negative ATS streaks of 7-19 in the NFC West and 7-16 against winning teams.

In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings at Arizona. In addition, the under for the Cards is on stretches of 4-1 overall, 4-1 in division action and 6-2 after a SU win, and the under for St. Louis is on runs of 5-1-1 in the division and 5-2 on the road. That said, the over is 14-5 in Arizona’s last 19 at home, 15-4 in its last 19 in December and 38-17 in the Cardinals’ last 55 games against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA

Detroit (2-12, 4-9-1 ATS) at San Francisco (6-8, 8-4-2 ATS)

The 49ers, who have fallen apart since getting off to a 3-1 start, take on the woeful Lions at Candlestick Park in a meeting of two teams playing out the string.

San Francisco has alternated SU wins and losses over the past seven weeks (3-3-1 ATS), falling 27-13 at Philadelphia last week as a seven-point pup. The Niners have beaten the defending NFC champion Cardinals twice this year, and their defense is allowing just 19.2 ppg (eighth). But their offense is 28th in total yards (286.6 ypg) and tied for 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg).

Detroit rallied from a 17-0 deficit to give Arizona a game Sunday, ultimately losing 31-24 but covering as a heavy 14-point home ‘dog. The Lions have dropped four in a row (2-2 ATS), and their defense continues to be porous, allowing 31.2 ppg and 396.1 ypg, both the worst marks in the league. The offense is netting just 16.6 ppg (27th) and 296.1 ypg (25th). Dating to the middle of the 2007 season, Detroit is a meager 3-35 SU (12-25-1 ATS).

San Francisco is on a 6-0 SU tear in this rivalry (4-1-1 ATS), most recently rolling 31-13 at home as a five-point chalk in September 2008. The Niners are also 3-1-1 ATS in the last five meetings at Candlestick.

The 49ers sport positive pointspread streaks of 11-5-3 overall, 5-0-2 after a non-cover, 6-1-1 following a SU loss, 7-2-1 at the ‘Stick and 16-7 laying more than 10 points, though they’ve also gone 2-6 ATS in their last eight against losing teams. The Lions are 15-6-1 ATS in their last 22 starts catching more than 10 points, but they are on numerous ATS slides, including 2-6-1 overall, 1-5-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 6-19-1 after a spread-cover.

San Francisco is on “under” streaks of 4-0 overall, 7-1 in December, 8-2 after a SU loss, 4-1 in NFC contests and 5-2 at home, and in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in six straight meetings overall, with five of those contests played at Candlestick. Detroit, meanwhile, is on “over” rolls of 23-9 on the highway, 9-3 as a road ‘dog, 11-3 in December, 11-2-1 after a non-cover and 5-1 against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO

Denver (8-6 SU and ATS) at Philadelphia (10-4, 9-5 ATS)

The streaking Eagles, who still have a shot at the No. 2 seed in the NFC playoffs, gear up for a non-conference contest with the inconsistent Broncos at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia dropped San Francisco 27-13 as a seven-point home chalk Sunday for its fifth consecutive SU victory (4-1 ATS). The Eagles, who can clinch the NFC East with a victory today, have scored 24 points or more in all five games, moving into the No. 2 slot in the NFL at 28.5 ppg for the year, behind only high-octane New Orleans (34.5 ppg). Philly forced four turnovers last week, an area that has been key all season, as the Eagles now hold a turnover margin of plus-17, one behind league-leading Green Bay.

Denver imploded against Oakland last week, giving up a last-minute TD in a 20-19 home loss as an overwhelming 14-point favorite to severely hamper its playoff prospects. The Broncos have had one of the better defenses in the league all year, allowing 294.4 ypg (third) and 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth), but their offense hasn’t taken advantage. Against Oakland, Denver (19.6 ppg) settled for four field goals, blowing a first-and-goal from the 2-yard line late in the game.

These teams have met just once this decade, with Denver plowing to a 49-21 rout as a four-point home chalk in October 2005.

The Eagles are on nothing but positive ATS runs, including 4-1 overall (all as a favorite), 4-0 in December, 7-3 at home and 6-2 laying points at the Linc. On the flip side, the Broncos are on ATS purges of 2-6 overall, 1-4 getting points, 1-6 in December, 1-6 after a SU loss and 8-24 after a pointspread setback. Also, the SU winner has cashed in all 17 straight Denver games.

The over for Philadelphia is on streaks of 8-2-1 at home, 6-2-1 with the Eagles a home chalk and 5-2 against winning teams, and the over for Denver is on rolls of 5-0 in December, 4-1 on the road, 16-6-2 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 after a non-cover. However, the under for the Broncos is on a 6-1 stretch against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA and OVER

N.Y. Jets (7-7 SU and ATS) at Indianapolis (14-0, 10-4 ATS)

The Colts aim to continue their run toward a perfect season with a Lucas Oil Stadium contest against the Jets, who must win to keep their slim playoff hopes alive.

Indianapolis edged Jacksonville 35-31 as a 3½-point road favorite in the Thursday contest last week, with the winning score coming on a 65-yard TD pass from Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne. The Colts, who have cashed in five straight games, are fourth in the NFL in total offense (383.3 ypg) and fifth in scoring (28.1 ppg). Manning leads the league with 4,213 passing yards, and he’s tied with Drew Brees atop the TD passing list with 33 (15 INTs). Indy is also fifth in scoring defense (17.7 ppg).

New York hindered its bid to make the playoffs with a 10-7 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday as a 5½-point chalk, ending a three-game SU and ATS surge. The Jets field the No. 1 total defense (262.8 ypg) and the No. 1 scoring defense (15.8 ppg), and they have the NFL’s top rushing attack (164.1 ypg). However, they are just 18th in scoring (20.1 ppg), and rookie QB Mark Sanchez has 20 INTs on the year, against just 12 TDs.

These teams last met in October 2006, with Indianapolis winning 31-28 on the road, and New York covering as a 7½-point pup. Indy is 3-1-1 ATS in the last five home meetings with the Jets, the home team is on a 7-2-2 ATS roll, and the favorite is 5-2-2 ATS in the last nine clashes. Also, the SU winner is on a 6-1 ATS run in this rivalry.

The Colts have won 23 consecutive regular-season games, going 15-8 ATS in that stretch, and they are 5-0 ATS in their last five December starts. Their current 5-0 ATS run has all come from the favorite’s role. The Jets are on a 7-3 ATS spurt as a road ‘dog, but they are on ATS skids of 1-4 against winning teams, 2-8 after either a SU or an ATS loss, 2-6 in December and 2-5 within the AFC.

In addition, the SU winner has covered in New York’s last 16 games, dating to last December.

New York is on a bundle of “under” runs, including 4-0-1 overall, 6-2-1 on the highway, 3-0-1 as a pup, 3-0-1 against winning teams and 20-8-2 in December. But in this rivalry, the total has gone high in four of the last six meetings (4-1-1).

ATS ADVANTAGE: INDIANAPOLIS

Dallas (9-5, 7-7 ATS) at Washington (4-10, 7-7 ATS)

The Cowboys, who control their playoff destiny and still have a shot at the NFC East title, travel to FedEx Field for a division battle with the reeling Redskins.

Dallas dealt New Orleans its first loss of the year, posting a 24-17 road victory last Saturday as a 7½-point underdog for just its fifth SU win and third ATS win in its last 15 December games. The Cowboys sport the third-most-productive offense in the league, at 394.5 ypg, though they’ve generated just 22.9 ppg (12th) from those yards. Defensively, the Pokes are middle-of-the pack in allowing 329.9 ypg (15th), but they’re giving up just 17.9 ppg (tied for sixth).

Coach Jim Zorn almost assuredly sealed his fate as the soon-to-be-ex Washington coach in a humiliating 45-12 Monday night loss to the Giants as a three-point home pup. Zorn called for a fake field out of a wild formation at the end of the first half, leading to an INT, and the Redskins had their five-game ATS winning streak snapped. Washington is averaging 317.9 ypg (23rd) and just 17.6 ppg (25th).

Dallas needed a late fourth-quarter TD to sneak out a sloppy 7-6 home victory over Washington five weeks ago, falling far short as an 11-point chalk. The Redskins are 7-2 ATS (5-4 SU) in the last nine clashes in this rivalry (5-1 ATS last six), and the underdog is on a 21-7 ATS spree. However, Dallas has gone 8-3 ATS on its last 11 trips to D.C., and the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.

The Cowboys are 5-2 ATS in their last seven starts against losing teams, but the ATS streaks head downward from there, including 3-12 in December, 4-9 on the road, 1-4 as a chalk and 0-4 as a road chalk. The Redskins have cashed in just three of their last 13 at FedEx, but they sport positive pointspread streaks of 5-1 overall, 4-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 against winning teams and 4-1 as a pup.

The under for Dallas is on tears of 6-1 overall, 4-1 in the NFC, 4-1 with the Pokes favored, 7-3 in December and a lengthy 49-23-3 against losing teams. Also, in this rivalry, the under is 5-2-1 in the last eight meetings in Washington. On the flip side, the Redskins are on a plethora of “over” streaks, including 4-0 overall, 4-0 in December, 4-0 at home, 6-1 getting points, 6-1 against winning teams and 4-1 in the NFC East.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS

SNF - Cowboys at Redskins
By Chris David

VegasInsider.com handicapper Marc Lawrence has often said, “A team is never as bad as it looks in a blowout loss and the same can be said for a winning club in their victory.”

We mention Lawrence’s comments because they apply to this week’s finale on Sunday Night between Dallas (9-5 straight up, 7-7 against the spread) and Washington (4-10 SU, 7-7 ATS) from FedEx Field.

The Cowboys silenced some of their critics last Saturday by handing New Orleans its first loss of the season with a 24-17 road victory. Prior to the big win, Dallas was known for choking in the final month of the year, evidenced by its 3-7 record in December with Wade Phillips as head coach. Even without Phillips on the sidelines, the Cowboys have gone 18-33 in December since 1996.

Was the win over the Saints last week the turning point for the ‘Boys or just a tease to all the fans of America’s team.

While Dallas thrived in its Week 15 primetime appearance, the Redskins failed miserably in front of a national audience. Washington was handed its worst setback of the season on Monday when the N.Y. Giants ripped off a 45-12 road win.

The loss came after the organization named Bruce Allen the new general manager. The writing has been on the wall for head coach Jim Zorn since the first month of the season and players are expecting a big shakeup in the offseason.

"This is an audition. These last couple of games is an audition," cornerback DeAngelo Hall said. "Bruce Allen pretty much got a head start on evaluating talent. If he looks at what he saw (Monday), he’ll scrap this whole thing."

After Dallas’ win on Saturday, the opening number listed the Cowboys as four-point road favorites against the Redskins. However, the line has now jumped to seven after Washington was annihilated last week on MNF.

Have the Redskins packed it in? Can they stop the recent momentum coming out of Dallas? The betting public believes Dallas is the play but gamblers should be made aware of a few tidbits before running to the counter and asking for a Cowboy ticket.

“It’s fair to say that Washington gave up last Monday after falling behind 24-0 early in the second quarter but this team has been competitive the entire season,” explained VegasInsider.com handicapper Kevin Rogers.

Rogers makes a good point in terms of the Redskins’ efforts. In Washington’s nine other setbacks, the average loss came by 5.8 points per game and the worst setback at home was by 10 points to Philadelphia.

“Another reason not to write off Washington is the divisional matchup factor. These teams are familiar with each other and I understand the Giants knew the Redskins too but it’s rare to see double-digit losses in back-to-back weeks. The public perception believes that the Cowboys are back and the ‘Skins stink. However, don’t forget that Washington should’ve beaten Dallas in their first encounter this season,” added Rogers.

The game Rogers is talking about happened in Week 12 from Dallas. The Cowboys sneaked out a 7-6 victory over the Redskins but didn’t come close to covering the 11-point spread. The defensive slugfest could’ve been put away by Washington late in the game. Unfortunately for the Redskins, kicker Shaun Suisham botched two field-goal attempts in the loss, including a 50-yard miss with 4:52 remaining that would’ve given Washington a 9-0 lead. After the miss, Dallas marched down the field and took the lead on a Tony Romo 10-yard TD pass to Patrick Crayton.

Suisham was cut two weeks later after he had another chance to put away a team, this time New Orleans, who came back to beat Washington in overtime.

Ironically, the Cowboys have also had kicker issues this year. They recently cut Nick Folk this past Monday after he posted a miserable seven misses in his last 11 attempts. Sure enough, Dallas replaced Folk this week with Suisham, who will look to get back on track against the team that cut him.

The Cowboys are hoping the game won’t come to a necessary kick but that depends on Dallas and more importantly Romo. The gunslinger has taken his share of knocks but he’s tossed eight touchdowns and no interceptions in the last four games.

Romo and his troops will be facing a Washington defense that started the season with promise but it’s hurting lately. In the last four games, the ‘Skins have allowed an average of 29.5 PPG. Only the Rams (7), Buccaneers (13) and Chiefs (14) were held under the 20-point plateau at FedEx Field this year and it’s safe to say we won’t be calling any of those three a juggernaut anytime soon.

Washington does have some current trends on its side heading into Sunday. First, the Cowboys haven’t swept a regular season series from the Redskins since 2004. After that sweep, Washington has gone 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS in the rivalry.

Another angle to look at for the ‘Skins is the SNF season trend. There have been 15 games played in the NBC slot and the underdogs have boasted a 10-4-1 ATS mark, which includes seven outright victories. Last Sunday, most pundits expected to Minnesota to handle Carolina rather easily but the Panthers captured a 26-7 victory as a home ‘dog.

Total players should note that something has to give in this matchup. The Redskins have watched the ‘over’ 7-1 in their last eight games, while the Cowboys have seen the ‘under’ cash in six of the previous seven. The total is hovering between 41 and 42 points and the ‘under’ is 3-1 in the last four head-to-head battles between the two teams.

vegasinsider.com

Toothless Tigers
By SportsPic

The Detroit Lions deserve every single one of the thirteen points being spotted when they head to Candlestick Park for a week-16 clash with 49ers. Lions 3-35 (11-26-1 ATS) since week-ten of the 2007 campaign including 0-19 (7-11-1 ATS) on the highway where they've been outscored 30.6 to 16.2 won't be showing an improvement in the won-loss column and will suffer a 20th consecutive road defeat. Yep, 49ers have been inconsistent but Mike Singletary's troops will play hard knowing they still have a chance at avoiding a seventh consecutive losing season by beating Lions this week, Rams in the finally. Lay the lumber, 49ers are 8-2 (7-2-1 ATS) last ten in front of the home crowd, have destroyed Lions by 15.3 points per game the past eight as host in the series (8-0, 5-2-1 ATS) and have won 12-of-14 encounters (9-4-1 ATS). Other trends of interest: 49ers are 11-5-3 ATS last nineteen overall, Lions 6-19-1 ATS after an ATS win.

Tips and Trends

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers

Ravens: Baltimore controls its own fate in making the playoffs this year. They are 8-6 SU on the season, having won 3 of their past 4 games SU. The Ravens have already beaten the Steelers this year 20-17 as 9 point favorites. The Ravens are 2-4 SU and 3-3 ATS on the road this season. The Ravens are also 2-3 ATS this season as the listed underdog. Baltimore has scored 79 PTS over their past 2 games to get back on track offensively. QB Joe Flacco is coming off a career game in his own right, and has over 3,300 passing YDS this season. RB Ray Rice has been a revelation this year, as he has nearly 1,800 YDS from scrimmage this year. The Ravens average 25 PPG, the 9th most in the NFL. This Ravens defense is still a force, as they've held 7 of their past 8 opponents to 17 PTS or fewer. Baltimore is 2nd in the NFL allowing only 16.1 PPG. This defense has also forced 15 turnovers over their past 5 games.

Key Injuries - Ravens are 6-1 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.
Over is 7-1 last 8 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - S Ed Reed (knee) is questionable.
T Jared Gaither (foot) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 20

Steelers (-3, O/U 42): Technically, the Steelers are still in the hunt for a Wild Card berth into the playoffs. The Steelers are coming off a win to get to 7-7 SU on the year. The Steelers are only 4-10 ATS this year, including losing 5 of their last 6 ATS. Pittsburgh is only 2-5 ATS this year at home. QB Ben Roethlisberger threw for over 500 YDS in his last game, and has nearly 3,850 YDS passing for the season with twice as many TDs as INTs. WRs Hines Ward and Santonio Holmes have each gone over 1,000 YDS receiving for the season, combining for 9 TDs. This Steelers offense averages 22.5 PPG for the season. Defensively, the Steelers appear to be wearing down as they've given up 27 PTS or more in 3 of their past 5 games. The Steelers defense has been particularly vulnerable in the 4th quarter, as they've given up 121 4th quarter points, the 2nd most in the NFL.

Steelers are 0-5 ATS last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 10-1 last 11 games as a home favorite up to a field goal.

Key Injuries - WR Hines Ward (hamstring) is questionable.
S Troy Polamalu (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 27 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins

Cowboys (-7, O/U 42): Despite a roller coaster season, the Cowboys can win the NFC East if they win their remaining 2 games. The Cowboys are coming off their best game of the season, an improbable win against the undefeated Saints in New Orleans. Dallas is 9-5 SU on the year, including a road record of 4-3 SU. Dallas faced the Redskins just over a month ago, and squeeked out a 7-6 victory at home as 11 point favorites. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS as the road favorite. QB Tony Romo has been playing great over his past 4 games, throwing 8 TDs against no INTs with a QB Rating of 111.9. WR Miles Austin is 2nd in the NFC in both receiving YDS and TD's this year, as he's enjoyed a breakout season. Defensively, Dallas is only allowing 17.9 PPG, which is 7th in the NFL. They held the Saints to a season low 17 PTS in their most recent game.

Cowboys are 0-4 ATS last 4 games as a road favorite.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games overall.

Key Injuries - TE Martellus Bennett (concussion) is questionable.
S Pat Watkins (knee) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Redskins: Is there a better 4-10 SU team in the NFL? Washington is coming off a blowout SU loss, yet have still covered 5 of their last 6 games. The Redskins are 3-4 SU at home, with an ATS record of 2-5. Washington is 5-3-1 ATS as an underdog this season. including 2-2 ATS as a home underdog. The Redskins are in the process of getting their offense back on track, scoring 24 PTS or more in 3 of their last 4 games. QB Jason Campbell has 8 TD passes over his past 4 games against 5 INTs. Washington has struggled running the football since RB Clinton Portis went out with a head injury. The Redskins have been held under 100 rushing yards in 4 of their last 5 games. Washington has given up nearly 30 PPG over their past 4 games. This defense is wearing down, and that is a huge reason why the Redskins have played to the over in 7 of their past 8 games.

Redskins are 5-0 ATS last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 14 points.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog.

Key Injuries - DE Andre Carter (bicep) is probable.
WR Devin Thomas (ankle) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (Side of the Day)