Vikings at 49ers: What Bettors Need to Know
By STEVE MERRIL
OPENING LINE AND WEATHER
Oddsmakers opened San Francisco as a 3-point home favorite earlier this week on Monday and the line dropped to -2.5 by Saturday morning. The over/under opened at 34.5 and has risen to 35 in some locations.
The weather looks fantastic on Sunday evening in San Francisco with the temperature in the low 60s with a light wind (9 mph) and a zero percent chance of rain.
INJURY UPDATE
Brett Favre has returned to the Vikings, but Minnesota is still shorthanded at the wide receiver position. Receiver and punt returner Percy Harvin is out indefinitely while wideout Sidney Rice is currently on the physically unable to perform list with a hip injury.
The defense is still missing middle linebacker E.J. Henderson and cornerback Cedric Griffin who are both out of the preseason and questionable for the regular season opener at New Orleans on Sept. 9.
San Francisco will probably be without WR Michael Crabtree who is doubtful with a neck injury and star TE Vernon Davis is also doubtful with a knee injury. The team is short at running back after the sudden and unexpected retirement of Glen Coffee last week.
FAVRE ATTACK
Guess who’s back? After reversing his retirement for the umpteenth time, Brett Favre returns to quarterback the Minnesota Vikings this season. And he’s suiting right up, as he is expected to start Sunday night’s game against San Francisco.
Despite missing over three weeks of training camp, head coach Brad Childress plans on playing Favre a couple of series after watching him workout over the last couple of days.
“I think he's doing a good job of rounding into form,” Childress said. “He has been throwing the football, there is no question about that. Just conditioning his legs. He's versed in our system and our calls.”
NO RESPECT
After the Favre soap opera played out during the week, numerous stories were written that the Vikings, as a team, have little to no respect for Childress. This issue came to light last season when he and Favre had a heated argument on the sidelines after Childress pulled the quarterback from a game to rest.
And when recently asked if his players respect him, Childress responded with this: “You can ask Brett about that. You don't like it but you deal with it. You sit at the top, everybody knows who they are shooting at. So they can say whatever they want to say and make an argument for it.”
That sounds like a man who knows he’s not respected by his players. And now that Favre is back in the mix, it will be interesting to see which direction the Vikings head going forward. They were impressive in their 28-7 win last week in St. Louis, but that was pre-Favre return.
Keep an eye on the coach-QB relationship over the next few weeks as it may go a long way in deciding how the Vikings season plays out.
SOLID ROTATION
San Francisco has one of the better preseason quarterback rotations in the league. Starter Alex Smith leads the way and his backup is journeyman David Carr who has started plenty of games in the NFL. Carr was ultra impressive in the 49ers 37-17 waxing of the Colts in Indianapolis. He completed 9-of-11 for 98 yards and a touchdown.
This week, third stringer Nate Davis is expected to see the majority of action under center. Davis was good in preseason games last year, and he played well against the Colts last week as he completed 5 of his 6 passes for 84 yards. Head coach Mike Singletary calls Davis “a work in progress” so his performance on Sunday night against more experienced defensive players will tell us a lot about Davis’ future in the NFL.
Favre, Vikings take on San Fran
By Judd Hall
Praise the Lord and pass the ammunition, Brett Favre has decided to grace us with his presence once more.
Favre confirmed late last week that he will be back with the Vikings this season. And proving that he has a great sense of timing, he’ll return to the field on NBC’s Sunday Night Football at San Francisco.
Gamblers have kept a keen eye to the line of this game as news started to roll in about everyone’s favorite flip-flopper. The 49ers were installed as three-point home favorites for this contest with a total of 34. They pushed up to 3 ½-points almost immediately after the release of the line. However, news of Favre’s return has helped push the Niners down to 2 ½-point faves. The public even pushed the total around, bumping it up to 35.
For all of those wondering, Brad Childress has confirmed that Favre will start on Sunday night. He’s going to play at least two series against, leaving Tavaris Jackson and Sage Rosenfels to handle the rest of the contest.
While fans might want to see No. 4 for longer than the first quarter, bettors can’t complain with the backups. The duo of Jackson and Rosenfels helped propel Minnesota to a 28-7 win as a 2 ½-point road pup against the Rams. Jackson was alright in his brief time on the field in completing 2 of his 4 passes for 11 yards. Rosenfels, on the other hand, was out to impress by connecting on 23 of 34 attempts for 310 yards and three touchdowns.
The Vikings were almost stingy on defense against St. Louis, holding them to just 150 yards. And that doesn’t take into account that they sacked Rams quarterbacks six times for a loss of 35 yards.
San Francisco didn’t have any problems against the Colts last Sunday as they picked up a decisive 37-17 win as a four-point road favorite in its preseason opener.
The QB play wasn’t all that stellar amongst Alex Smith, David Carr and Nate Davis. That trio completed 17 of 26 passes for 219 yards and one score. Anthony Dixon proved to be a quality pickup out of Mississippi State after rushing for 103 yards and a touchdown on 21 carries.
The 49ers’ defense did yield 235 yards to Indy last Sunday afternoon. However, they were better in some big stat categories. San Fran let the Colts covert just four of their 14 third-downs at Lucas Oil Stadium. Plus, they picked off four passes from Indianapolis passers, with Reggie Smith running one of them 91 yards back to the house.
If the Childress Era in Minneapolis has done anything more than have a Gerald McRaney look-alike, it’s his record as a preseason pup. The Vikings have gone 5-3 straight up as road pups since Childress took control of the team in 2006. For our purposes though, Minny has gone a solid 6-2 against the spread.
Mike Singletary guided his club to a 2-0 SU mark in both of their games as home favorites in the preseason in 2009, but failed to cover the number on either occasion. Since 2007, San Fran has gone 3-2 SU and 1-4 ATS as a home “chalk.”
Random Preseason Thoughts…
Home teams have enjoyed a lot of good fortunes so far this preseason, going 12-4 SU and 9-7 ATS through Friday’s Eagles-Bengals clash. Gamblers looking to take favorites only have seen them post a 12-6 SU and 9-9 ATS mark in that same time frame. The only sure-fire wager for us to take advantage of is the ‘over’ as it’s gone 11-7.
I’ll be the first to tell you that I don’t have anywhere near the football acumen of Colts GM Bill Polian. That being said, what the hell is he doing with Curtis Painter as Peyton Manning’s backup? Painter could throw the ball like nobody’s business at Purdue (Joe Tiller had one heck of a system). Yet he barely could beat ranked teams them. The former Boilermaker has done little to make me believe he can play at this level in preseason and late regular season work. God help the Colts if Manning goes down because they’re toast with Painter under center.
Betting on football is about as good as it gets for many of us. Watching preseason football, however, is like sitting through a kindergarten graduation ceremony…you want the kids/players to feel special, but you and everyone else know that it’s a waste of time. I fail to see any reason to keep four games on the exhibition slate; two tests sounds about right to me. Unfortunately that setup won’t happen until the NFL sets up for an 18-game regular season. Please make that happen!
Perhaps it’s the degenerate in me but I enjoyed being able to bet on and watch a game live at 7:00 a.m. during the World Cup. That’s leading into a chance to do more of the same thing this winter with the Barclay’s Premier League going on first thing in the morning to lead into college football on Saturday and the NFL on Sunday. Not a bad way to start making money on the weekend.
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Tips and Trends
Minnesota Vikings at San Francisco 49ers
VIKINGS: Minnesota dominated St. Louis in their first preseason game, ultimately winning by 21 points. The Vikings defense was dynamic, holding the Rams offense to no points throughout the game. In fact, the Vikings defense was so dominant that they held the Rams to only 150 total yards. QB Sage Rosenfels was dynamic in his last outing, throwing for 310 YDS and 3 TD's. WR Garrett Mills caught 4 passes for 106 YDS and a TD against the Rams. The Vikings offense had a clean game, as they didn't have a single turnover against the Rams. Minnesota has made waves across the NFL this week, with the reemergence of QB Brett Favre. All eyes will be on the old ballslinger tonight, as he is expected to make his debut tonight. Favre has said he expects to play, and to play quite well. With Favre in the fold, the Vikings are a Super Bowl contender. Wiseguys will be watching to see how Rosenfels handles the demotion after his wonderful Week 1 performance.
Vikings beat the St. Louis Rams 28-7 in their first preseason game.
Key Injuries -LB E.J. Henderson (leg) is questionable.
Projected Score: 13
49ERS: (-2.5, O/U 35) San Francisco simply drilled Indianapolis in their first preseason game, scoring 37 points and winning by 20 points. During one stretch of the game, the 49ers scored 34 consecutive points. San Francisco has taken on the persona of their head coach Mike Singletary, where each and every play matters. Coach Singletary demands nothing but the finest efforts from his players, and they have been rewarding him during this specific preseason. Backup QB's David Carr and Nate Davis combined to throw for 180 YDS while completing 14 of their 17 passes. RB Anthony Dixon rushed for 103 YDS and a TD amongst 21 rushing attempts. Defensively, the 49ers forced 4 Indianapolis turnovers in the dominating San Francisco win.
49ers beat the Indianapolis Colts 37-17 in their first preseason game.
Key Injuries - LB Scott McKillop (knee) is out.
Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)