NFL News and Notes Sunday 9/13

Trend Setters - Week 1
By Kevin Rogers

Handicappers will tell you that past history is sometimes random events, while others think there is some validity towards trends. Each week during the NFL season, we'll update you on the trends to keep an eye out for that may be the deciding factor on a game that you're unsure about. This week, we'll take a look at a handful of matchups that you'd be surprised where the positive trends lie.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (1:00 PM EST)

The Jaguars have been a thorn in the Colts' side over the years, since the two teams were realigned in the AFC South in 2002. Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS the last seven trips to Indianapolis, including a 23-21 victory in 2008. The Colts have had major problems covering the spread against division opponents recently, going 5-11 ATS the last 16 games versus AFC South opponents. Indianapolis has also struggled in their new home, Lucas Oil Stadium, compiling a 3-5 ATS mark.

Jacksonville's long success in season openers has hit a bump in the road the last two years, losing straight-up and ATS in Week 1. Despite losses in those games, the Jags are 8-2 ATS the last ten season openers.

Detroit at New Orleans (1:00 PM EST)

The Lions go for their first win since 2007, following the 0-16 disaster in 2008. Detroit comes into New Orleans as substantial road underdogs, as top pick Matthew Stafford will get the start at quarterback for the Lions. Detroit was a solid play last season when getting double-digits, with the Lions finishing 7-1 ATS as underdogs of at least 10 points. Apparently, playing away from Ford Field was a good thing for Detroit in '08, with the Lions going 6-1 ATS as a road 'dog, losing just one game by more than 10 points.

The Saints actually turned things as home favorites last season, in Sean Payton's third campaign in New Orleans. The Saints were 3-11 ATS when laying points at the Superdome in Payton's first two seasons, but turned it around in '08 with a 5-1 ATS mark. However, Sunday's game against Detroit will be only the second time that New Orleans is laying double-digits in Payton's tenure (Saints fell to the Rams, 37-29 in 2007 as 10-point 'chalk').

Miami at Atlanta (1:00 PM EST)

The Dolphins and Falcons were both surprising teams last season, each finishing 11-5 and making the postseason. The target will be on each team's backs this season, as Miami starts off with a tough road, taking on Atlanta, Indianapolis, and San Diego out of the gate. The Dolphins were a terrible home play in 2008, going 2-7 ATS, including their first-round loss to the Ravens. Miami, however, was a tremendous play on the road, compiling a 6-2 ATS mark away from South Florida. Tony Sparano's team went 5-0 ATS the final five games they were listed as road 'dogs.

Atlanta, like Jacksonville, has been a strong team on opening day over the last decade, cashing eight of the last ten Week 1 contests. The Falcons are 11-5 ATS the last four seasons against AFC opponents, but just 4-4 ATS in this span at home.

San Francisco at Arizona (4:15 PM EST)

The Cardinals try to defend their NFC crown, hosting division rival San Francisco. The road team is 7-0 ATS the last seven meetings, while the Niners are 3-0 ATS at University of Phoenix Stadium. Mike Singletary's club covered four of its final five games as an underdog in 2008, including outright wins over the Bills and Jets.

Arizona finished a solid 5-2 ATS as a home favorite last season, while compiling an 8-5 ATS mark when laying points at home under Ken Whisenhunt. However, the Cards are just 4-7 ATS in Glendale when laying at least 3 ½ points.

vegasinsider.com

NFL Top Weekend Games
By Brobury Sports

The first weekend of the NFL season has finally arrived, and Brobury Sports is giving you the top trends and latest analysis.

Philadelphia (-1) at Carolina – Sunday 1 pm EST

Philadelphia is 1-7-1 ATS as a road favorite between .5-3 points
Carolina was 5-2-1 ATS at home in the regular season last year
Under is 12-4 in Carolina’s last 16 home games

Philly has moved from one-point underdogs to one-point ‘chalk’ even though they were 0-4 ATS in the preseason. Donovan McNabb will lead the offense for the first two games without the help of Mike Vick and the ‘Wildcat.’ The defense must prove it can win without coordinator Jim Johnson.

Carolina was 8-0 SU at home in the regular season last year, but all anyone remembers is the home playoff loss to Arizona. The Panthers were 0-4 both straight-up and ATS in the preseason and now have running back Jonathan Stewart and linebacker Jon Beason questionable for this game.

Washington (+6.5) at NY Giants – Sunday 4:15 pm EST

New York is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings between the teams
New York was 12-4 ATS in the regular season last year
Washington is 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games

Washington is predicted to be bottom-dwellers in the NFC East, but don’t fall asleep on this team. Quarterback Jason Campbell is looking much more comfortable in Coach Jim Zorn’s offense and the defense was already Top 5 before adding Albert Haynesworth. Zorn better hope it all comes together or he’ll be back in Seattle working at Starbucks.

New York has all the pieces in place for another Super Bowl run except number one receiver. There is plenty of talent at the position, but someone has to assume the role of jailed Plaxico Burress. If the Giants struggle early on, the pressure will mount on Eli Manning, especially with his new mammoth contract.

Chicago (+3.5) at Green Bay – Sunday 8:20 pm EST

Underdog is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
Green Bay is 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games
Chicago is 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games

Chicago quarterback Jay Cutler has been all that was advertised so far, but his current group of receivers can’t compare with those on Denver last year. Cutler actually had a better quarterback rating on the road last year (89.3) than at home (83.2), and he’ll need to play great in this tough Lambeau matchup.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers and the first team offense looked great when they played in the preseason. Can you say Brett Favre who? While that has Packers fans suddenly confident heading into Sunday night, the real key is how fast the defense responds to Dom Capers’ multiple-look 3-4 scheme.

Buffalo (+10.5) at New England – Monday 7 pm EST

New England is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams
New England is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games
Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in their last four Week 1 games

Buffalo is having its share of drama already, but its surprisingly not coming from wide receiver Terrell Owens. Offensive coordinator, Turk Schonert has been fired this preseason after an anemic showing for the first team offense. However, Coach Dick Jauron says the Bills will stick with the no-huddle offense.

New England continues its purge of veteran defensive players. The latest to go is Richard Seymour who was traded to Oakland for a 2011 number one pick. Coach Bill Belichick feels he can win with his revamped defense, but the QB position is thinner than an old Kate Moss photo with the un-drafted Brian Hoyer the only backup.

Chiefs @ Ravens-- Home team lost last three series games; Chiefs won their last three visits to this site, but this is whole new Chief team (new QB-coach-GM). KC covered seven of last nine when getting 7+ points, but they're 12-20 vs spread as single digit underdog since '05. Baltimore won last three home openers by 22-7-7 points; they're 23-6-1 vs spread as non-divisional home favorite since 2000 (only 13-10-1 vs divisional foes). Chiefs lost last three season openers by 13-17-7 points. Cassel is practicing with a knee brace after am injury in an exhibition game- when a team fires its offensive coordinator during camp, it can't be a good sign.

Eagles @ Panthers-- Philly lost first road game three of last four years, but they're 8-2 vs spread in last ten tries as road underdog (13-7 as road dog in non-divisional games this decade, 14-8-2 as dog of 3 or less pts). Eagles had injury issues on OL during camp. Carolina lost four of last five home openers, but are 9-5-1 vs spread in last 15 games as a favorite of three or less points. Under is 12-7-1 in Panthers' first four games the last five years. Lined moved from Carolina -1 to Philly -1, primarily due to Panthers' dreadful 0-4 showing in preseason games.

Broncos @ Bengals-- Denver had worst offseason in recent memory, as they downgraded at both head coach/QB. Broncos finished 27-30th in rush defense last two years; they're 6-10 as road dog the last three years, 11-14-1 in last 26 games as single digit dog. Bengals won four of last five home openers; they're 11-19-2 vs spread as a home favorite since 2001, 6-12-1 as single digit favorite the last three years. Cincinnati ranked 24-26-29th in rushing yardage the last three years.

Vikings @ Browns-- Favre played for Mangini with Jets LY; word was the two didn't get along very well. QB issues abound on both sides, with winner of Browns' QB derby still being kept a secret, like its a freaking military secret. Favre showed up August 18 and was anointed Vikings' savior, but is he ready to play a full game? Browns lost last four season openers, by 14-5-27-18 points, scoring just 11 ppg. Minnesota is 5-10-1 vs the spread in its games vs AFC teams last four years- they lost four of last five road openers, but were underdog in all five games.

Jets @ Texans-- Jersey Jets won last three series games by average score of 25-11; they covered 12 of last 18 as road dog, but are 5-14-1 vs spread in 19 games as non-divisional road dog. LY, Jets improved from 29th to 7th in rush defense, 26th to 7th in sacks, 19th to 9th in rushing offense LY, so why exctly did they change coaches? Texans are 16-16 last two years, despite -23 turnover ratio; if they protect ball better this season, they're solid playoff sleeper team. Texans lost four of last five openers.

Jaguars @ Colts-- Jax is 2-3 in last five visits here, but no losses were by more than seven points; Jags' season was messed up in opener LY when they lost two OL guys for year in first game- they finished 18th LY in rushing, their worst rank since 2001. Indy won four of last five openers, with wins by 14-7-19-31 points, but hard to overestimate loss of coach Dungy, a calming force. Colts having issues at LT, protecting Manning's blindside. Jaguars are 16-8-1 vs spread in last 25 games as a road dog.

Lions @ Saints-- Detroit went 0-16 LY, losing 42-7 at home to Saints late in season, game in which Brees was 30-40/351 passing in easy win; Lions are 31-97 SU this decade, but covered 13 of last 16 when getting double digit points- they're 15-13 as non-divisional dog on road the last six seasons. Saints were 4-1 as home fave LY after 4-14 mark previous four years- they're 0-2 as double digit favorite since '01, 5-10 as a home favorite in non-divisional games since '04. Lions lost three of last four road openers, with all three losses by 13+ points.

Cowboys @ Bucs-- A new coach, new QB for retooled Bucs, who also lost starting safety (suspension) for first four games. Tampa is 7-3-1 vs spread in last 11 games as home dog, 5-1-1 in non-divison games. Bucs are 6-8-2 vs spread in last 16 games as dog of three or less points. Dallas covered last six tries as road favorite of three or less points; they're 11-8 as road favorite since '03. Three of last four series totals were 22 or less. Leftwich got nod as starting QB, then Bucs traded McCown to Jaguars, after many had thought McCown outplayed Leftwich this summer. This was after Tampa Bay fired their offensive coordinator. Uh-oh.

49ers @ Cardinals-- Niners have 7th offensive coordinator in last seven years, 3rd OL coach in last three- they decided on Hill as starting QB, while NFC champ Cardinals have explosive offense back led by Warner with HC Wisenhunt now calling plays. Underdog is 4-0 vs spread in the 49ers' last four visits here, with teams splitting the games. Cardinals are 11-8 as home favorite since 2005, but just 5-9 in last 14 games as home favorite in NFC West games. Niners are 11-4-1 as divisional road dog.

Redskins @ Giants-- Big Blue covered first meeting in this twice-yearly series last five years, winning four of last five games played here, with wins by 6-28-16-9 points. Average total in last three series games played here was 25.7. Giants are hurting at WR, so they'll try to run ball down Redskins' throats-- Washington ranked 4th/8th in rush defense last two years. Skins covered five of last six as road dog in divisional games, but are 12-14 as single digit dog since '05. Giants are 19-11 as home faves. Former Giant QB Woodson is now on Redskin practice squad, no doubt Washington coaches are picking his brain.

Rams @ Seahawks-- Seattle won last eight series games, taking last four here by average score of 31-14 (3-1 vs spread); Hawks are 8-3 vs spread an an NFC West home fave since '05, 9-6 as home fave in all games the last two years. Rams lost last five road openers, getting outscored 62-6 last two years- they're 11-19 as road dog since '04, 15-27 vs spread as a single digit dog during that time. Both coaches are in first game with new team. Interesting to see if Rams are any better at stopping running game. Bulger hasn't played since breaking pinky on right hand last month.

Bears @ Packers-- Cutler makes Bear debut here, highest touted QB for Chicago since Luckman. 177th meeting in NFL's oldest rivalry-- Bears had won four in a row at Lambeau before the 37-3 debacle here last year. Chicago is 16-23-2 as road dog since '02, but 5-3-1 in division road games the last five years. Packers switched defenses with Capers the new DC; they're 8-6 as home favorite since 2006, 5-3 in NFC North games. Pack is just 2-3 SU in its last five home openers, winning last two by 3-5 pts.

Road Runner Angle
By SportsPic

In the NFL you win by running the ball and stopping the opposition from doing the same. Diving into our trusty database doing a vanilla query road teams winning the ground game last season were successful 67.6% of the time (72-34)

Since were concerned about a trip to the cash window determining the ATS win rate was more crucial to the analysis. To that end we found road teams were 77-25-4 ATS a 72.6% ROI.

Needing a bigger sample, a run through the data looking at ten years gleaned similar results. Road teams out-rushing opponents were 757-381 for a 66.4% winning clip in the record books with a profitable 788-307-43 (69.2%) mark at the betting window.

Not satisfied, an addition parameter picking out good road runners (>100 RYG) with good run stop units (<100 RYG) got the juices flowing, these road runners were a cash stuffing 484-131-23 for a 75.8% ROI.

One final run through the data yanking out -.5 to -4 road favorites who ran the ball 25 or more times we end with a staggering 24-4 (85.7%) record against-the-oddsmaker.

Makes Vikings who at this writing were -4.0 point road faves an interesting play. Vikings with perhaps the best running game in the league behind Adrian Peterson and backup Chester Taylor run an average 30+ times per game notching 140+ yards/game. They also have one heck of a good run stop unit (<100 RYG).

Streaks, Notes, Trends
By SportsPic

Detroit Lions at New Orleans Saints

Toothless Lions could have a good offense this year but a poor defensive line and secondary means they'll need to score a BIG BUNCH to get past Breese and company who put up 28.9 PPG last year on 311.1 passing, 99.6 rushing yards/game. It'll take Lions a few more before snapping the ugly 0-16 (7-9 ATS) mark suffered last year and the 1-23 (8-16 ATS) record endured past twenty-four regular season games. Not the least impressive on the highway going 5-27 (15-17 ATS) last four season Lions have their hands full. Sportsbooks have tagged Detroit +13 point underdogs despite Lions being 8-2 ATS the past two years taking double digits including 6-1 ATS on the road.

Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals

Things aren't looking good for dysfunctional Broncos and new head-coach Josh McDaniels. A slew of injuries, a bunch of unhappy players Denver looks to be in serious decline. Broncos one of the worst spread teams the past two seasons (9-22-1) are 4-9 ATS in their last thirteen as a road underdog, 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight in September. Meanwhile, Bengals with an improved defense, a healthy Carson Palmer with a deep receiving group in Ochocinco, Coles and Caldwell look to be headed in the right direction after a dismal 4-11-1 campaign. Bengals enter 11-3 ATS last fourteen vs the AFC West, 4-1 ATS last five vs Broncos.

NFL Afternoon Action
By Sportsbook.com

There are just three late afternoon games in the NFL, however, all are important in that teams are looking to get off to a fast start. Of course, when you’re betting, the games that mean more are the ones you have wagering tickets on. With that thought in mind, here’s is a look at each of the late afternoon contests to choose from. Be sure to read these key tidbits before hitting the confirm button on your wagers at Sportsbook.com.

SAN FRANCISCO at ARIZONA

The defending NFC champs start another run at it on Sunday when they host division-rival San Francisco. Arizona was a pleasant postseason surprise, turning a 9-7 regular season mark into a Super Bowl berth. In 2009, the Cardinals will have the target on their backs and be fighting the dogged record of the Super Bowl loser in the follow-up year. One of the main reasons for the success last year was their record in divisional play, 6-0 SU & 5-1 ATS. San Francisco has dreams of its own in the NFC West after winning five of its final seven games, riding the momentum of HC Mike Singletary taking over. This has been a very trendy head-to-head series, as the last five games have gone OVER the total, and the road team boasts a 4-3 SU & 7-0 ATS record in the L7.

WASHINGTON at NY GIANTS

Washington visited the Giants to kickoff the ’08 season and the hosts won 16-7 as 4-1/2 point favorites. That New York team was a defending champ, the ’09 version is a hungry club looking to avenge an early playoff ouster. The Giants were solid in ’08, going 12-5 SU & ATS while landing the NFC’s #1 seed in the playoffs. They have won five of the L6 games against the Redskins, both SU & ATS and are working on a stretch of four straight years with a winning ATS mark in divisional games. Washington is more of a victim of its division, coming off an 8-8 season in which they went UNDER the total in 12 of 15 games while scoring just 16.6 PPG, 28th most in the NFL. This series has been a big UNDER series in New York as well, eight of L9 meetings going that way.

When the Giants & Redskins opened the season a year ago in New York, the hosts were defending Super Bowl champions, yet only 4-1/2 point favorites in the game. They easily took care of business. Now, with what I deem to be a shrinking talent gap between the teams, the Giants are actually a bigger favorite to win in the ’09 opener. I don’t get it. The window of opportunity for success in the NFL is short. I believe the G-Men blew their chance a year ago. Take a look at this changeover system: Play Against - Any team (NY GIANTS) - solid team from last season - outscored opponents by 7 or more points/game. (70-37 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.4%, +29.3 units. Rating = 2*). I see a tight game coming here, one with all the intensity that a division rivalry brings. Regardless of who wins, take the points.

ST LOUIS at SEATTLE

All four teams in the NFC West Division are squaring off in Week 1, so the winners will get a leg up on the chase of the crown in ’09. Seattle and St. Louis, after dominating the division for most of the decade, both now find themselves in the role of chaser, trying to unseat Arizona. The Seahawks will host the Rams on Sunday, playing as a sizeable 7-point favorite despite having gone 4-12 a year ago. They have won four straight games in this head-to-head series, both SU & ATS. St. Louis hit rock bottom with a 2-14 mark in ’08, and has begun anew with former Giants DC Steve Spagnuolo as Head Coach. He hopes to reverse a trend that has seen the Rams start 0-4 SU & ATS in back-to-back seasons. They are also just 7-17 ATS in divisional play since ’04.

NFC North Opener
By Sportsbook.com

Sunday Night Football – Bears at Packers

After a full afternoon of football, don’t think for a minute the action is over and done with. There is still money to be made on Sunday night, as the Packers and Bears will square off from Lambeau Field in Green Bay. The hosts are a 3-1/2 point favorite and backed by nearly 70% of bettors at Sportsbook.com. Be sure to visit the BETTING TRENDS page for the latest breakdown, then click on the LIVE ODDS button to see all of the exciting prop wagers available for this rivalry contest. Now, more on the game…

Two fierce rivals will square off on Sunday night game when the Packers host the Bears in a NFC North dual. Green Bay, coming off a 6-10 season in which it set the record for most losses by four points or less (seven), is a 3-point favorite. QB Aaron Rodgers, off a big first season as starter, looked very sharp in the preseason, as did the defense, which switched from 4-3 to 3-4 under new DC Dom Capers. The Bears were 9-7 in ’08, but have high hopes from the acquisition of QB Jay Cutler. Strangely, the Chicago offense actually outperformed the defense last year though. Green Bay is 13-5 ATS in divisional play under Mike McCarthy. HC Lovie Smith’s team is on a 1-4 SU & ATS skid on the road, but visitors in this rivalry own a 13-7 SU & 13-6 ATS edge since ’99.

Who would’ve guessed Green Bay’s defense would struggle more than its offense in its first season without Brett Favre since 1992? The Packers allowed 380 points—tying their most in a season since 1986—and yielded an average of 28.1 per game in 10 defeats. Now they’re switching to a 3-4 under former Carolina and Houston head coach Dom Capers.

At least the defense’s finest performance of 2008 came against the hated Bears at Lambeau Field, the site of this year’s Sunday night opener. Chicago managed only nine first downs and 234 total yards in a 37-3 blowout victory in Week 11 for the Packers, who didn’t win again until they sealed Detroit’s winless season in the finale. The Bears turned the table on Green Bay in Week 16, winning 20-17, but also missed the playoffs thanks to a season-ending loss in Houston.

Someone often compared to Favre—Jay Cutler—was the biggest impact player to change uniforms during the offseason and makes his debut for the Bears after they gave up Kyle Orton and a pair of first-round draft picks to Denver to get him. Cutler, the 11th overall pick of the 2006 draft, gives Chicago great potential for its best air attack in decades. In his last of three seasons with the Broncos he passed for 4,526 yards, ranking third in the league, and 25 touchdowns with 18 interceptions. He has 54 career touchdowns in 37 starts and will be eager to show he was worth the price.

Cutler wouldn’t mind opening 2009 the way Aaron Rodgers did ’08. The latter became the first person not named Favre to start at quarterback for Green Bay in 254 games and scored the winning touchdown against Minnesota. Rodgers went on to throw for 4,038 yards and 28 touchdowns with 13 interceptions for a 93.8 rating.

Chicago’s pass defense has been a sore spot in each of the past two seasons. In 2008, only Seattle and San Diego gave up more yards through the air than the Bears, who did manage to rank tied for third in the NFL in interceptions with 22. A bright spot was Kevin Payne (88 tackles, four interceptions), who flourished in his first year as the starting strong safety.

PREDICTION

Green Bay has looked in a word, “super”, in the preseason, particularly QB Aaron Rodgers and the new 3-4 defense under DC Dom Capers. The Packers’ first units have looked ready for the regular season. I can’t say I’ve thought the same when watching the Bears. It’s quite obvious to me that they are still in the process of working QB Jay Cutler into the mix. Rodgers meanwhile, is quite comfortable in his now clearly defined role as leader of the Pack. He should have a field day against a Bears’ defense that ranked 30th against the pass in ’08. Add in the fact that HC Mike McCarthy’s teams have done very well in divisional play in his tenure. The bottom line is this: One team in this matchup looks much more prepared for the season to begin. At home and laying just 3-1/2-points, that seems like a no-brainer to me.

Favre, Vikes visit Browns
By AllStar.com

Brett Favre takes his latest team the Vikings into Cleveland to face his head coach of the New York Jets last season Eric Mangini. Mangini is back in Cleveland as the coach, 14 years after breaking into the NFL as a Belichick assistant on the Browns. Mangini has decided to start the season with Brady Quinn at quarterback but it appears the Browns will not have the horses to compete with a loaded Minnesota Viking team.

Quarterbacks:

To the surprise of nobody, Brett Favre is back in the NFL. The question is how much does the 39 year old Favre have left in the tank. He missed most of training camp, turns 40 on October 10th, and had surgery on his throwing arm in May. The good news is, he will not be expected to be the key to the offense, his role is more traffic cop then gunslinger. If Favre can stay healthy, he could be the missing ingredient for the Purple and Gold to be playing in late January. With a massive offensive line in front of him, and much more comfortable with this offense, look for Favre to have a solid 09 campaign.

On the Browns side, the guy (for now) is Brady Quinn. Mangini refused to say who the starter would be, but many team sources have confirmed that Quinn will be under center. For Quinn this will be start #4 since being drafted 22nd overall in 2007. Unlike Favre who has plenty of weapons, Quinn may have to win this game by himself. He no longer has TE Kellen Winslow, RB Jamal Lewis has slowed down to the point other teams are surprised he is still the main back, and WR Braylon Edwards failed his physical at the start of training camp. For the Browns to pull the upset Quinn is going to need to have a big game.

Running Backs:

In many cases, experience beats youth, but it is tough to make the argument here. Adrian Peterson is the key to the Vikings offense, and look for him to have a big game here. The Browns allowed 151.9 rushing yards a game last season, 28th in the League. Mangini hired well respected Defensive Coordinator Rob Ryan away from the Raiders, and he will have has hands full in week one trying to contain the league’s best back. Veteran Chester Taylor is Peterson’s back up, and would probably be the featured back for many teams in the league, including the Browns.

For the Browns, Ten-year vet Jamal Lewis has to show that he is still a capable back. It will be tough to do considering he has carried the ball an amazing 2400 times over the course of his career. James Davis who looks like a Lewis Clone will help lighten the load.

Wide Receivers:

Minnesota will count on Bernard Berrian to be Favre’s go to guy. Minnesota drafted Playmaker Percy Harvin out of Florida in the first round, and many league experts say he could be a rookie of the year candidate. Look for Harvin to lead the Vikings version of the Wildcat, and could also make plays on special teams as he will open the season as the teams return man. A sleeper to keep an eye on is sure handed tight end Visanthe Shiancoe. Favre has always enjoyed dropping the ball off to the Tight End, and that figures to be the case this year as well.

Braylon Edwards is the main offensive weapon for the Browns, and needs to bounce back from a disappointing 2008 which saw him drop a staggering 16 passes. Edwards was a pro bowl player in 2007, and has good speed which makes him dangerous in the slot. Reports out of Cleveland say Edwards is a man on a mission, which will be fine if he can keep his emotions in check. Mike Furrey, rookie Brian Robiskie, and journeyman tight end Steve Heiden round out the receivers.

Defense:

Minnesota got a huge break this week with the announcement that Pat and Kevin Williams will be available for the opener. Add in Jered Allen, Antoine Winfield, and the remaining members of a fast Minnesota defense, and you can see why Quinn will need to have a big day.

The Browns defense in 2008 was terrible defending the run allowing an average of more then 150 yards per game. Changes were made, and Coordinator Rob Ryan will bring an exciting brand of defense to Cleveland. Mangini brought former Jets playmakers Kenyon Coleman and Eric Barton with him to Cleveland to try to fix the problem. They will have one assignment on Sunday…Make Favre beat us, and figure out a way to contain Peterson. If not, it could be a long day in the dawg pound.

Special Teams:

There have not been too many areas where we have given the nod to the Browns, but that changes here. Joshua Cribbs is maybe the league’s best return man, and he will get a chance to shine against a shaky Vikings return team. Minnesota allowed 7 return TD’s last year. Percy Harvin will start the season returning Kickoffs for the Vikes.

Betting Trends:
Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games in Week 1.
Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games in Week 1.
Browns are 0-7-1 ATS in their last 8 games on grass.
Browns are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Browns are 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Browns last 6 games in Week 1.
Under is 5-0-1 in Vikings last 6 games as a road favorite.

Early Sunday Games
By Sportsbook.com

The opening Sunday of the 2009 NFL season features nine early kickoffs, each loaded with awesome wagering opportunities. Among the highlight games scheduled for 1:00 PM ET kickoffs are Miami-Atlanta, Philadelphia-Carolina, Jacksonville-Indianapolis, and Dallas-Tampa Bay. As always, check out all of the odds for each of these games at Sportsbook.com.

MIAMI at ATLANTA

Miami & Atlanta try to build on playoff seasons when they open the 2009 campaign in one the two inter-conference games scheduled for Week 1. Miami was the league’s biggest surprise in ’08, improving by 10-wins from ‘07. Oddsmakers don’t expect it to continue though, dropping the Dolphins’ regular season wins prop bet to 7.5 this fall. Perhaps that has something to due with the fact that the Fish had the best turnover ratio in the NFL. HC Tony Sparano’s team was 3-1 SU but 0-4 ATS vs. the NFC last year. Atlanta also experienced a meteoric rise, going from 4-12 to 11-5 behind new offensive weapons QB Matt Ryan & RB Michael Turner. Like the Dolphins however, the Falcons were beat in the wildcard round. In this h2h series, Atlanta has won four straight ATS.

PHILADELPHIA at CAROLINA

Top contenders in the NFC go head-to-head Sunday when Philadelphia visits Carolina. The Panthers are 1-point favorites, hoping to get off to a fast start and erase the memory of January’s embarrassing playoff loss. They rolled to a 12-4 regular season mark but were beaten 33-13 as a 10-point favorite vs. Arizona in the divisional round. Philadelphia also lost to the Cardinals a week later in the NFC title game, but has made several well received changes since in the offseason. The Eagles are 8-1 ATS as a road underdog over the last two seasons, and 33-15 ATS in that role under HC Andy Reid. They have won two straight in the h2h series, but haven’t visited Carolina since ’03. The Panthers were 5-3 ATS at home in ’08, their first winning mark since ‘02.

JACKSONVILLE at INDIANAPOLIS

There are seven divisional games scheduled for opening week in the NFL, perhaps none bigger than that in the AFC South between Indianapolis & Jacksonville. The AFC South is expected to be one of the most competitive divisions in football, and both the Colts and Jaguars boast playoff expectations. This has been a back-and-forth series as well, with road teams owning a 6-4 SU & 7-2-1 ATS record in the L10 h2h games. The last three games have been decided by a TD or less. Ironically, the pointspread for Sunday is set at Colts -7. They were just 3-8 ATS last year as favorites despite winning 12 games. Indy will begin a new era under Jim Caldwell, the former quarterback coach. The Jaguars are hoping to forget ‘08 after losing six of the L7 games, both SU & ATS.

DALLAS at TAMPA BAY

Dallas & Tampa Bay were 9-7 a year ago, but the teams don’t share similar aspirations for 2009. The Cowboys have re-tooled, the Bucs are rebuilding. HC Wade Phillips’ team moves on without WR Terrell Owens among others, but seems poised to make another charge at an NFC East title. In ’08, the Cowboys were outscored by 0.2 PPG and finished 7-9 ATS, including 3-5 ATS on the road. Dallas is a 3-point favorite, as Tampa has made massive change since January, having cut several recognizable veterans while turning to HC Raheem Morris to take over for John Gruden. As of presstime, Morris had yet to name his starting QB. In this series, home teams are on a run of 4-1 SU & 5-0 ATS. The Bucs are on a run of 27-6 UNDER the total in the first two weeks of the season.

Cutler, Rodgers do battle
By AllStar.com

A great NFC rivalry resumes Sunday Night in the first week of the 2009 NFL season as the new look Chicago Bears travel to Green Bay to play the Packers.

The story in this match-up is the quarterback position. Green Bay has Aaron Rodgers, who has one year experience under his belt, from taking over from Hall of Famer Brett Favre. The Bears on the other hand have a brand new car in the driveway and can’t wait to show off their shiny new asset in Jay Cutler.

With acquisition of Jay Cutler the Bears think they can make a return to the Super Bowl. Cutler becomes the 11th starting quarterback for the Bears since 2001. Last season with the Broncos, Cutler set franchise records with 384 completions, 616 attempts, 4,526 yards and eight games passing for 300 or more yards. By contrast, Orton passed for more than 300 yards just once last season with the Bears.

“He does some plays and does some things out there that I’ve never seen,” said Chicago running back Matt Forte, who set a franchise record for a rookie by rushing for 1,238 yards last season. “I’ve never had a quarterback like that. I’m just glad he’s here.”

Rodgers on the other hand is only the second quarterback to start a game for the Packers since 1992. After serving for three years as Brett Favre’s backup, Rodgers started all 16 games last season for Green Bay, which went 6-10.

Rodgers passed for 4,038 yards, 28 touchdowns and 13 interceptions, joining Kurt Warner(notes) in 1999 as the only two quarterbacks in NFL history to throw for at least 4,000 yards in the first season they started a game. He threw for 487 yards, four touchdowns and two interceptions in the two games against the Bears last season.

Chicago, which ranked 30th in pass defense in 2008 (241.2 yards per game), will be tested often by Rodgers.

The Packers defeated Chicago 37-3 at Lambeau Field on Nov. 16, but in the rematch at Soldier Field on Dec. 22, the Bears won 20-17 in overtime.

“It’s great for the rivalry,” Green Bay coach Mike McCarthy said.

Running back Ryan Grant, who enters his third season as the Packers’ primary running back, rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown on 25 carries in the win, but was limited to 61 yards on 25 attempts in the loss.

While Green Bay hopes Rodgers and Grant continue to develop, the Packers also need improvement from their defense in order to be successful.

Green Bay allowed an average of 28.5 points while losing five of its final six games. As a result, McCarthy fired nearly all of his defensive coaching staff and brought in veteran coordinator Dom Capers to install his version of the 3-4.

The Packers return almost all of last year’s defensive players. The team switched from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4. Expect the Packers to also play more zone coverage than in years past. Cornerbacks Al Harris and Charles Woodson are two of the best cover specialist in the league.

There won’t be much room for error against Chicago, which features a team with two of the best Tight Ends in the league in Greg Olson and Desmond Clark. Although Cutler has one of the strongest arms in the NFL, his primary targets will likely be Olsen, Clark and Forte, who caught a team-high 63 passes for 477 yards last season. Cutler is also hoping that Devin Hester will develop into a premier receiver. Last season with Kyle Orton, Hester was able to grab 51 receptions for a team-high 665 yards.

The Bears veteran defense is led by linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs. The Bears defense is always physical and these two studs will be instrumental in Chicago’s chances of reaching the Super Bowl.

Cutler said. “I’ve never been to the playoffs,” “I’ve never been to the Super Bowl. But it all starts Sunday. There’s that first one Sunday, and we’ll just go back and regroup. We’re looking forward to it. I think we have a great shot at it.”

TRENDS

Chicago
· Bears are 2-5-1 in their last 8 games as a road underdog.
· Bears are 3-8 in their last 11 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
· Bears are 2-6-1 in their last 9 games overall.
· Bears are 2-6-1in their last 9 games in September.

Green Bay
· Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 vs. NFC North.
· Packers are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games in September.
· Packers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games.
· Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on grass.
· Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite.
· Packers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
· Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite.

OU Trends

Chicago
· Under is 5-0 in Bears last 5 games in Week 1.
· Under is 7-2 in Bears last 9 road games.
· Under is 9-3-1 in Bears last 13 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
· Under is 11-4-1 in Bears last 16 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
· Over is 28-12-1 in Bears last 41 vs. NFC.

Green Bay
· Over is 6-1 in Packers last 7 games in September.
· Over is 9-2 in Packers last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Head to Head Trends

· Road team is 13-6-1in their last 20 meetings.
· Bears are 5-11-1 in their last 17 meetings.
· Underdog is 4-1 in their last 5 meetings.

Cutting-It
By SportsPic

Jay Cutler makes his official debut as a Chicago Bear when the strong-arm quarterback heads to Lambeau Field for a season-opening showdown vs Green Bay Packers. Although Cutler is off a 4,526-yard, 25-touchdown season and expectations are high in Chicago there is a big different this year, Cutler hasn't got the wide receivers he needs to operate at peak efficiency. On the other hand, Aaron Rodgers passing for 4,038 yards 28 touchdowns last year has far more weapons in the passing game (252.4 PYG) and could do serious damage against Bears thin secondary which surrendered the third-most passing yards (241.2 PYG) in the NFL last season. It's hard to overlook Green Bay knowing Packers were downright dominant in the preseason, with the first-team offense scoring touchdowns on nine of thirteen possessions and that Rodgers carved up Bears for 487 yards 4 TD's in two 08' encounters. Trends of interest: Packers 9-3 ATS vs a division opponent, 7-2 ATS L9 in September, Bears 2-6-1 ATS L7 in September, 1-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5 to 7.

Road Runner Angle
By SportsPic

In the NFL you win by running the ball and stopping the opposition from doing the same. Diving into our trusty database doing a vanilla query road teams winning the ground game last season were successful 67.6% of the time (72-34)

Since were concerned about a trip to the cash window determining the ATS win rate was more crucial to the analysis. To that end we found road teams were 77-25-4 ATS a 72.6% ROI.

Needing a bigger sample, a run through the data looking at ten years gleaned similar results. Road teams out-rushing opponents were 757-381 for a 66.4% winning clip in the record books with a profitable 788-307-43 (69.2%) mark at the betting window.

Not satisfied, an addition parameter picking out good road runners (>100 RYG) with good run stop units (<100 RYG) got the juices flowing, these road runners were a cash stuffing 484-131-23 for a 75.8% ROI.

One final run through the data yanking out -.5 to -4 road favorites who ran the ball 25 or more times we end with a staggering 24-4 (85.7%) record against-the-oddsmaker.

Makes Vikings who at this writing were -4.0 point road faves an interesting play. Vikings with perhaps the best running game in the league behind Adrian Peterson and backup Chester Taylor run an average 30+ times per game notching 140+ yards/game. They also have one heck of a good run stop unit (<100 RYG).

Defenses Rule in September
By SportsPic

Defenses are usually ahead of the offenses at the beginning of the NFL season. The numbers show that defense is generally ahead of the offense in the first month, with the 'Under' prevailing as the offenses work to get themselves in synch.

A dive into our trusty database confirms the thought. Since the 2000 campaign the O/U was 269-304-6 (52.5%) in all September games with the average combined score 41.4 PPG. Spitting out games by week confirmed the theory that offenses get better as time goes by. Using the same nine year sample we found Week-1 was 73-98-1 (56.9%) O/U with an average 40.3 PPG while Week-4 produced a 44-35-2 (43.2%) O/U mark with the average combined score being 43.8 PPG.

What really got the juices flowing was the next query looking at Week-1 games deemed to be high scoring and ones where books had set the O/U line at >44. The results, 12-28-1 O/U good enough to turn a nice profit 68.3% of the time if one had chosen to play all qualifying situations.

Impressive but the ROI with this 'Week-One Total System' improves greatly changing one qualifier, 'Play-Under' in any Week-1 contest where the total is set at =>46. This lucrative situation is 6-22-1 O/U for a sparkling 75.8% win ratio.

Keep in mind, JOE Q public likes the 'Over', oddsmakers adjusts accordingly and the astute player can profit nicely going against-the-grain. Good luck opening week with Pats/Bills (47) and/or Saints/Lions (49).

Bears at Packers
By Brian Edwards

Nothing like an old-school rivalry from the black-and-blue division to cap off the first Sunday of the 2009 NFL season. Check that, the oldest NFL rivalry is what we’ll get when Chicago and its new quarterback invade Lambeau Field to face Green Bay at 8:20 p.m. Eastern on NBC.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened the Packers as three-point favorites with a total of 44. As of late Saturday afternoon, most betting shops had Green Bay installed as a four-point home ‘chalk’ with the total at 46 or 46 ½. The Bears are plus-180 on the money line (risk $100 to win $180).

“I think four is cheap with the Packers,” veteran VegasInsider.com handicapper Alf Musketa said during Thursday’s edition of the Power Hours on VI Radio. “Everybody I know is betting on Green Bay. I don’t know one person that’s backing Chicago.”

Mike McCarthy’s team enters his fourth season looking to bounce back from a 6-10 campaign one year after being a play away from the Super Bowl. McCarthy and GM Ted Thompson certainly aren’t questioning their decision to go with Aaron Rodgers over the legendary franchise icon, Brett Favre.

The 10-loss year certainly isn’t the responsibility of Rodgers, but the psychological toll of the Favre Drama last August clearly took a toll on the Pack. The defense was gashed by injuries, running back Ryan Grant couldn’t duplicate his 2007 numbers and Green Bay lost seven games by four points or less.

Rodgers made all 16 starts despite suffering a shoulder injury in a Week 4 loss at Tampa Bay. He was outstanding from the get-go, completing 63.6 percent of his passes for 4,038 yards with a 28/13 touchdown-interception ratio and a 93.8 QB rating.

If preseason play is any indicator, Rodgers is poised for a monster campaign in 2009. He completed 71.1 percent of his throws with a 6/0 TD-INT ratio.

“Rodgers is now a top-flight quarterback,” said Musketa. “In most fantasy drafts, he was the third player taken behind only Drew Brees and Tom Brady. I wish I had him on my team.”

The Bears have been suffering from poor quarterback play for decades, as in all the way back to Sid Luckman in the 1940s. But that is expected to change after they executed a brilliant trade with Denver to get Jay Cutler.

The problem is: Who is he going to throw to? Keep your eye on Earl Bennett, who set all sorts of school and SEC records as a freshman at Vandy when he played for one season with Cutler.

Also, Lovie Smith is hoping for a big season out of tight end Greg Olsen, who had 54 receptions and five touchdowns in 2008. And there’s the potential, albeit still developing, that speedster Devin Hester will become an explosive wide receiver.

Cutler connected on 63.6 percent of his passes with a 2/1 TD-INT ratio during the preseason. He doesn’t have to do everything because the Bears have Matt Forte, who enjoyed an outstanding rookie year in 2008. Forte, a Tulane product, rushed for 1,238 yards and eight touchdowns.

Musketa isn’t sure about Forte’s offensive line, though. “The offensive line looks shaky at best. They’ve had some new additions there. I think Chicago is going to be better than last year with Cutler, but the Packers have looked nothing but sharp. I’m full steam ahead with the Pack.”

Chicago played five games as a road underdog in ’08, posting a 1-4 SU record and a 1-3-1 ATS mark. Likewise, the Packers compiled a mediocre 2-4 spread record as home favorites.

When Chicago came to Lambeau Field in mid-November of last season, Green Bay spanked the Bears 37-3 as a 3 ½-point home favorite. However, Smith’s team exacted revenge a month later with a 20-17 win at Soldier Field in overtime. The Packers did manage the spread cover in the Windy City as four-point road underdogs.

The ‘over’ went 9-7 overall for the Packers last year, 5-3 in their home games. The Bears watched the ‘’under’ go 8-7-1 overall, 5-2-1 in their road assignments.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Cutler threw for 300 yards or more eight times in 2008.

--The Bears ranked 30th of 32 NFL teams in pass defense last year.

--Musketa had this take on the Falcons being favored by four. “This number is off. I made Atlanta seven on a neutral field. I like the Falcons a lot this week.”

vegasinsider.com.