Sunday Night Football: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
By JOSH NAGEL
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-4.5, 46.5)
Line: The Packers opened as 3-point home favorites and the total opened at 43. The line has moved to -3.5 and the total is 46.5 at most sports books. Oddsmakers have told Covers.com that most of the sharp money has come in on the Bears, but that the public favors the Packers.
Weather: The weather is expected to be 56 degrees at game time or higher with humidity around 60 percent. There is a 10-percent chance of precipitation, and a 5 mph wind coming in from the southeast.
Cutler gets the hype, Rodgers has been hot
Although this nationally televised, prime-time affair will mark the debut of quarterback acquisition Jay Cutler, his counterpart in Green Bay has Packers fans and local media anticipating a breakout year.
Aaron Rodgers has operated with much less fanfare than Cutler, but there’s a decent chance he had the best preseason of any NFL quarterback. Rodgers completed more than 70 percent of his throws with six touchdowns against zero interceptions.
“I think it tells you that I was very prepared, I took care of my body this off-season and wanted to put myself in a good situation in training camp to have the kind of preseason that I did,” Rodgers told the media. “Other than that, I think it tells us that our offense has some confidence right now, but we’re going to have to carry that over.”
Rodgers has avoided the off-field controversy that has dogged Cutler. He managed to stay out of the limelight while the Brett Favre drama swirled around Green Bay last season and went on to a fine debut season as an NFL starting quarterback.
Rodgers threw for more than 4,000 yards and had 28 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. Cutler threw for more than 4,500 yards and earned a Pro Bowl spot. But the new Chicago quarterback is just 17-20 as an NFL starter and comes to the Windy City with some questions surrounding his character after his run-ins with new coach Josh McDaniels forced his trade out of Denver.
Looking to get defensive
Defense has long been the hallmark of the Chicago Bears, but it was perhaps their weakest link last year. Green Bay’s failures on defense also cost the Packers several close games.
Both teams take new approaches this season to fix contrasting problems. The Bears were a Top-5 run defense but had the league’s 30th ranked pass defense and registered just 28 sacks. The Packers were solid against the pass but were among the league’s worst at stopping the run, allowing 131 yards per game.
Bear coach Lovie Smith took matters into his own hands by taking over the defense in the offseason. He got a little help by bringing in former Detroit Lions head coach Rod Marinelli, a longtime defensive specialist, to help shore up the defensive line.
The Packers brought in the well-traveled Dom Capers, a former head coach of the Carolina Panthers and Houston Texans, to install a 3-4 defense. Green Bay had been running a standard 4-3. Packers coach Mike McCarthy told the media he has been pleased with the results thus far. The Packers’ first team gave up just 13 points in 13 possessions in the exhibition season.
“I felt coming out of the off-season program that our players had a pretty good grasp of our defensive scheme when we left here in June, and it showed up in training camp,” McCarthy told reporters.
Coaches on the hot seat?
There’s nothing quite like speculation about a coach’s job security before the first kickoff takes place. But both Smith and McCarthy have had their share of criticism.
The coaches have each shown up on numerous “hot seat” lists in the NFC, with the implication that another down season could cost them their jobs. Of course, the same can be said about every coach in the NFC North with exception of Detroit’s Jim Schwartz, who is bound to be given a little time to clean up the mess he inherited.
McCarthy earned a little slack by leading the Packers to the NFC title game in his first season, but it stands to reason that the Packers faithful won’t tolerate too many more 6-10 campaigns.
Smith similarly earned a little bit of a cushion by leading the Bears to a Super Bowl berth, but a third straight season without a playoff spot is certain to put his job at risk.
Trends
Both teams won at home last season in this divisional rivalry, with the Packers winning 37-3 on their home turf and the Bears winning 20-17 in Chicago. The Packers got the money in both games, covering easily at home and sneaking inside the 4-point spread at Chicago.
The under is 7-2 in Chicago’s last nine road games but the over is 9-2 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as a home favorite. The road team is 13-6-1 ATS in the past 20 games between the two rivals.
Dallas at Tampa Bay
The Cowboys, coming off a disappointing end to the 2008 season, kick things off by traveling to Raymond James Stadium to take on the Buccaneers, who are now led by 34-year-old coach Raheem Morris.
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Dallas dropped its last two regular-season games, including a 44-6 beatdown as a 2½-point pup at Philadelphia in the finale that cost the team a playoff berth, finishing with a 9-7 SU record (7-9 ATS). Despite missing three midseason games due to injury, QB Tony Romo had a productive year, passing for 3,448 yards, with 26 TDs and 14 INTs, but the Cowboys finished 18th in the league in scoring at 22.6 ppg, while gaining 344.5 ypg (13th).
The Pokes finished eighth in the league in total defense (294.3 ypg), but they gave up 22.8 ppg (20th).
Tampa Bay (9-7 SU, 7-8-1 ATS in 2008) was 9-3 through 12 games last year, then went on an 0-4 SU skid (1-3 ATS), including a 31-24 home setback to lowly Oakland as an 11-point chalk to end the season and cost coach Jon Gruden his job. The Bucs QB Jeff Garcia (11 starts, 2,712 yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs) was not retained by Tampa, which will now turn to Byron Leftwich as the starter. Leftwich, who started for three-plus seasons to open his career in Jacksonville, spent last season as a backup with the Super Bowl-champion Steelers.
The Bucs finished ninth in total defense (306.1 ypg) and 10th total defense (20.2 ppg), and the offense was 14th in the league at 341 ypg, generating 22.6 ppg (19th). Morris hired offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski in the spring, but fired him last week after a lackluster preseason.
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Dallas has covered in three of the last four meetings in this rivalry (2-2 SU), dating to 2001. Last year, the Cowboys earned a 13-9 home win as a one-point chalk in a game Romo sat out. The home team is on a 5-0 ATS run, and the favorite is 4-1 ATS during that stretch.
The Cowboys are on ATS upticks of 7-2 in September, 5-1 laying points and 4-1 in NFC games, but they are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games. The Bucs are on pointspread runs of 17-5-1 as a home pup and 6-1 in September, though they are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-4 overall and 1-4 at home, and they’ve cashed in just one of their last five season openers.
The over for Dallas is on tears of 17-8-2 on the road, 5-1 in season openers and 7-3-1 in September, and the total has gone high in four of Tampa Bay’s last five as a home ‘dog. However, the under for the Bucs is on stretches of 5-1 to open the season and 6-2 against the NFC, and the total has stayed low in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
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ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS
Detroit at New Orleans
The Lions, coming off their NFL record-setting winless campaign, hope to begin the turnaround when they travel to the Superdome to face the high-octane Saints.
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Detroit went a dismal 0-16 SU in 2008, though it was a more middling 7-9 ATS, cashing in three of its last four games. The lousy season got GM Matt Millen and coach Rod Marinelli fired, and Jim Schwartz has taken over as coach after previously guiding the Titans’ defense. No. 1 overall draft pick Matt Stafford won the starting QB job over veteran Daunte Culpepper, and the former Georgia standout will try to resurrect an offense that finished 27th in points (16.8) and 30th in yards (268.2) last year.
The Lions’ defense was even worse in ’08, allowing a whopping 404.4 ypg and 32.3 ppg – both league worsts.
New Orleans had a prolific offense last season behind QB Drew Brees, but that was only enough for an 8-8 SU record (10-5-1 ATS). Brees threw for 5,069 yards (34 TDs, 17 INTs), falling just short of Dan Marino’s all-time NFL record (5,084), but the Saints were inconsistent all year, alternating wins and losses over the last five games and winning two in a row just once in ’08.
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The offense, not surprisingly, led the NFL in yards (410.7) and points (28.9), but the defense allowed 339.5 ypg (23rd) and 24.6 ppg (26th), and New Orleans finished minus-4 in turnover ratio.
New Orleans’ biggest rout last year was a 42-7 victory at Detroit as a 7-point favorite in Week 16. Brees lit it up by going 30 of 40 for 351 yards and two TDs to snap a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Lions in this rivalry. The underdog had covered in four straight meetings before New Orleans’ rout last year.
The Saints are on spread-covering streaks of 5-1-1 overall, 5-0 giving points, 4-1 at home and 4-1-1 against NFC foes, and New Orleans went 6-1 ATS as a chalk last year (4-1 ATS as a home chalk). The Lions, despite their dismal SU record last season, went 6-2 ATS on the highway, covering in their last six roadies (all as an underdog). They are on further ATS surges of 5-1 in season openers and 13-3 as a road pup of more than 10 points.
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The under has hit in five of New Orleans’ last six season debuts, but the “over” trends take off from there for the Saints, including 15-5-1 overall, 11-1-1 at home, 20-6-1 in conference play and 12-4-1 as a favorite. Likewise, the over for Detroit is on tears of 16-5-1 overall, 19-7 on the road and 20-8-1 with the Lions an underdog.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Jacksonville at Indianapolis
The Colts, who lost coach Tony Dungy to retirement, open the Jim Caldwell era by immediately jumping into division play with an AFC South contest against the Jaguars at Lucas Oil Stadium.
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Indianapolis went a solid 12-4 SU (8-8 ATS) in 2008, but had to settle for the wild card after finishing second in the division to the 13-3 Titans. That proved fatal in the first round of the playoffs, with the Colts forced to travel to San Diego to face the Chargers, who at 8-8 still won the AFC West and the automatic home playoff game. Indy was sent packing in a 23-17 overtime loss as a 1½-point favorite.
QB Peyton Manning had a typical year, completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 4,002 yards, with 27 TDs and 12 INTs, but Indianapolis finished a mediocre 15th in total offense (335.5 ypg) and 13th in scoring (23.6 ppg), primarily due to a rushing attack that finished 31st (79.6 ypg). Indy finished seventh in scoring defense (18.6 ppg) and 11th total defense (310.9 ypg).
Jacksonville followed its 2007 divisional playoff run with a 2008, going 5-11 SU (4-12 ATS), including a 1-6 SU and ATS freefall to close the campaign. QB David Garrard, who had 18 TDs and just three picks in 2007, came back down to earth with 15 TDs against 13 INTs while throwing for 3,620 yards last year, and he was sacked 42 times. The Jags mustered just 18.9 ppg (24th) and 319.1 ypg (20th). On defense, Jacksonville finished 17th in ypg (330.9) and 21st in points allowed (22.9).
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These two teams split their 2008 meetings, with the visitor winning and covering each time, as Jacksonville notched a 23-21 road win getting four points in September, and Indianapolis prevailed 31-24 in Jacksonville as a 5½-point chalk in December. In fact, the road team has covered in the last four clashes, and the Jags are on a 4-1 ATS run in Indy.
The Colts have cashed in four of their last six season openers and are on a 14-6-1 ATS tear in September, but they are mired in ATS funks of 2-6 at home, 3-7 laying points in Indy and 5-11 inside the AFC South. The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 season debuts, but they are on pointspread declines of 0-6 in the AFC, 0-4 in division play, 1-5 as a ‘dog and 1-4 on the road.
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For Indianapolis, the under is on runs of 5-2 overall, 4-0 in season openers and 9-4 in September, and the under for Jacksonville is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 6-1 as a pup and 4-1-1 on the road. However, the over is 5-1 in the Colts’ last six division games, and the total has cleared the posted price in four of the last five meetings in this rivalry, including the last three in a row.
ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE
N.Y. Jets at Houston
The Jets unveil rookie starting quarterback Mark Sanchez when they invade Reliant Stadium to open the season against the Texans.
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New York went 9-7 SU (7-9 ATS) last year, blowing an 8-3 SU start behind QB Brett Favre by finishing the year on a 1-4 SU skid, failing to cover in all five games. Eric Mangini was subsequently fired, and Rex Ryan, the longtime Ravens defensive coordinator, was hired to take his place. Favre then went through his retired/unretired routine and the Jets traded up on draft day and grabbed Sanchez with the fifth overall pick in the draft. The former USC star beat out Kellen Clemens for the starting job to lead an offense that last year finished ninth in ppg (25.3) and 16th in ypg (331.7), with the league’s ninth-best rushing attack (125.2 ypg).
Sanchez will be the first rookie QB to start on opening day for the Jets since 1960, and the youngster has never played in a dome, nor has New York since Week 15 of the 2006 season. On the other side of the ball, the Jets finished 16th in total defense (329.4 ypg) and 15th in scoring defense (22.2).
Houston went on a 5-1 SU and 6-1 ATS tear to end the season, falling just short of its first-ever winning season, ending up at 8-8 SU and ATS. QB Matt Schaub missed five games due to injuries, but he started in six victories, including the last three, finishing with 3,043 yards (15 TDs, 10 INTs).
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Houston was third in the league in total offense (382.1 ypg), paced by the fourth-best passing attack (266.7 ypg), but that only translated to 22.9 ppg (17th). The Texans finished 22nd in total defense (336.6 ypg) and 27th in scoring defense (24.6 ppg), and the Texans had a minus-10 turnover differential.
These teams have met three times, with the Jets winning and covering all three, including a 26-11 home win as a 4½-point chalk in 2006. New York won 19-14 giving three points in 2003 in the only previous contest held in Houston.
The Jets are on a 6-1 ATS run as a road pup, but along with their current 0-5 ATS slide, they are on a 5-14 ATS purge as a non-division road ‘dog. The Texans are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 at Reliant (4-1 ATS in their last five) and are 4-1 ATS in their last five against AFC foes, but they’ve cashed in just one of their last five season openers.
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The over for New York is on streaks of 5-1-1 in conference play and 8-3-1 in September, and the over for Houston is on upticks of 6-0 in September and 5-2 with the Texans a home favorite. However, the under was the play in five of the Texans’ last six games of the 2008 campaign.
ATS ADVANTAGE: HOUSTON
Minnesota at Cleveland
The Vikings open the Brett Favre era with a non-conference road contest when they take on the Browns and new coach Eric Mangini, who was Favre’s coach last year with the New York Jets.
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Minnesota won the NFC North last year, going 10-6 SU (6-10 ATS) before being dealt a 26-14 loss to the Eagles as a three-point home underdog in the wild-card playoff round. Tarvaris Jackson started the last four games at QB for the Vikings, who then went out in the offseason and acquired Sage Rosenfels from the Texans. Not impressed by either of them, Minnesota ultimately got Favre to come out of retirement a second time, signing him in August.
Favre completed 65.7 percent of his passes last year for 3,472 yards and got the Jets out to a 9-3 record, but he fell apart with injury issues over the final four games, throwing eight INTs and just two TDs as New York fell out of the playoff picture. He finished with 22 TDs and 22 INTs. Still, Minnesota felt he was an upgrade for the offense, which finished 17th in yards (330.9) and 12th in points (23.7), mostly on the back of superstar RB Adrian Peterson (league-leading 1,760 rushing yards, 10 TDs).
The Vikes’ defense was solid as usual in ’08, allowing an average of 292.4 yards (sixth) and 20.8 points (13th).
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Cleveland finished at the bottom of the AFC North at 4-12 (7-9 ATS), with coach Romeo Crennel getting fired and Mangini – fired after the Jets’ collapse – taking over. The new coach this week finally picked Brady Quinn over Derek Anderson as his starting QB, though both passers had injury issues late last season. Cleveland ended 2008 on a six-game losing streak (1-5 ATS).
The Browns’ offense finished 31st in the league last year at 249.1 ypg and tied for 30th in averaging a paltry 14.5 ppg. The defense was 26th in ypg (356.5) and 16th in ppg (21.9).
These teams have met just once this decade in regular-season play, a 24-12 Minnesota home win as a 4½-point chalk in 2005.
The Vikings have cashed in five of their last seven Week 1 games, but they are on ATS downfalls of 6-14 overall (1-4 last five), 1-4 in September and 3-8 as a favorite, and they are in a 2-6 ATS rut as a road chalk. The Browns are on positive ATS streaks of 4-1-1 as a home pup and 5-2 in September, but they are on a 1-4 ATS skid at home and have failed to cash in their last four Week 1 contests. In fact, Cleveland is 1-9 SU and 2-8 ATS in its last 10 season openers.
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The over is 6-2 in Minnesota’s last eight roadies, but the under for the Vikes is on rolls of 4-1 overall, 5-0-1 as a road chalk and 7-3-1 in September. The under has hit in 15 of Cleveland’s last 21 (4-1-1 last six)l, 8-3 at home and 5-1 in season openers.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Denver at Cincinnati
The overhauled Broncos, who fell apart down the stretch and missed the playoffs last year, hit the road for their season opener against the Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium.
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Denver failed to win or cover in its last three games, blowing a three-game lead to the Chargers in the AFC West while finishing 8-8 SU and 4-11-1 ATS, the second-worst spread-covering record in the league. With that came the firing of longtime coach Mike Shanahan and the hiring of 33-year-old Josh McDaniels, a former Patriots assistant. Then, following weeks of turmoil, McDaniels traded Pro Bowl QB Jay Cutler to the Bears for Kyle Orton, who last year had 15 starts and threw for 2,972 yards, with 18 TDs and 12 INTs.
Orton, nursing a preseason index-finger injury, is still expected to start for the Broncos, who behind Cutler (4,526 passing yards, 25 TDs, 18 INTs) had the league’s No. 2 offense at 395.8 ypg. Denver wasn’t nearly as proficient at scoring, finishing 16th at 23.1 ppg, and the defense allowed a porous 374.6 ypg (29th) and 28.0 ppg (30th). The Broncos also finished a league-worst 32nd in turnover margin, at minus-17.
Cincinnati went 4-11-1 SU (7-9 ATS) in 2008 in another injury riddled year for QB Carson Palmer, who missed the last 12 games with an elbow injury, but the Bengals finished on a 3-0 SU and ATS run. Palmer (731 passing yards, 3 TDs, 4 INTs last year) was coming off a solid season, completing 64.9 percent of his passes in 2007 for a career-best 4,131 yards, with 26 TDs and 20 INTs. Last year, Cincy finished dead last in scoring (12.8 ppg) and total offense (245.4 ypg).
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The Bengals were more respectable on the other side of the ball, finishing 12th in total defense (325.5 ypg) and 14th in scoring defense (22.8 ppg).
Denver is 3-2 SU in the last five meetings in this rivalry, but Cincinnati – as an underdog in all five games – cashed in four of them, most recently in a 24-23 road loss getting three points in 2006.
The Broncos have been one of the worst teams at the betting window the past few years, going 14-34 ATS in Shanahan’s last 48 games, and they are on additional pointspread downturns of 1-6-1 in September, 7-21-1 against the AFC and 6-14 on the highway. The Bengals, meanwhile, are in pointspread ruts of 2-7 as a favorite and 3-9 in conference play, but they also carry positive ATS streaks of 4-1 at home and 9-4 in September.
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The over for Denver is on tears of 24-11-2 overall, 7-0 in September, 10-3-2 with the Broncos as a ‘dog and 10-4-1 on the road. On the flip side, the under for Cincinnati is on rolls of 4-0 overall, 8-2-1 at home and 4-0 as a chalk.
ATS ADVANTAGE: CINCINNATI
Philadelphia at Carolina
Two NFC playoff teams from last year get together when the Eagles take flight to Charlotte for a clash with the Panthers at Bank of America Stadium.
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Philadelphia went 9-6-1 SU (10-6 ATS) in the regular season last year to earn a wild-card bid, then reached the NFC title game before falling short to Arizona 32-25 as a 3½-point road chalk. QB Donovan McNabb had one of his best years, completing 60.4 percent of his passes for a career-high 3,916 yards, with 23 TDs and 11 INTs in the regular season, and he added 892 yards in three playoff games (5 TDs, 4 INTs).
The Eagles were sixth in scoring (26.0 ppg) and ninth in total yards (350.5) in 2008, and they also fielded the league’s third-best defense (274.3 ypg) and were fourth in points allowed (18.1).
Carolina won the NFC South, going 12-4 SU (9-5-2 ATS), tying the Giants for the conference’s best regular-season mark to get a first-round playoff bye. But like the Eagles, the Panthers’ season ended at the hands of the Cardinals in a 33-13 blowout as an overwhelming 10-point home favorite in the divisional round.
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QB Jake Delhomme (3,288 yards, 15 TDs, 12 INTs) had a fair year for a squad that finished 10th in scoring (25.9 ppg) and 10th in total yards (349.7 ypg), but Carolina’s running game was the key, finishing third at 152.3 ypg. RB DeAngelo Williams rushed for 1,515 yards (third) and a league-high 18 TDs. The Panthers’ defense was merely average, yielding 331.2 ypg (18th) and 20.6 ppg (12th).
These two teams have met four times this decade in games that count, with Philly going 3-1 SU and ATS, most recently winning 27-24 as a three-point home pup in 2006. The SU winner cashed in all four games, and the underdog went 3-1 ATS.
The Eagles finished last year on a 6-2 SU and ATS run, including 4-1 SU and ATS to secure the playoff bid, and they are on further pointspread streaks of 8-3 against the NFC and 12-5 on the road. The Panthers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 home games, but they are on a 1-4 ATS skid as an underdog.
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The under for Philadelphia is on rolls of 4-0 in Week 1, 4-1 on the road and 41-17-5 with the Eagles favored, and the under for Carolina is on stretches of 11-2 in Week 1, 12-4 at home, 4-0 as a home ‘dog and 22-8-2 in September. However, the total has gone high in six of Carolina’s last eight overall.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Kansas City at Baltimore
The Ravens, coming off an appearance in the AFC title game, begin their quest to take it a step farther when they take on the Chiefs at M&T Bank Stadium.
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Baltimore went 11-5 SU to finish just behind rival Pittsburgh in the NFC North, securing a wild-card berth, and the Ravens tied for the league’s best pointspread mark at 12-4 ATS. After SU and ATS playoff road wins over Miami and Tennessee, Baltimore earned its third meeting of the season with the Steelers and lost for a third time, 23-14, as a six-point road pup.
QB Joe Flacco had a steady, if not spectacular, rookie season passing for 2,971 yards (14 TDs, 12 INTs), but the Ravens rode the run to offensive success, finishing fourth in the league at 148.5 ypg, with Le’Ron McClain and Willis McGahee combining for 1,573 yards and 17 TDs. Baltimore also fielded a typically stout defense, finishing second in total yards (261.1) and third in points allowed (15.2).
Kansas City is coming off a dismal 2-14 campaign (8-8 ATS) that led to Herm Edwards’ firing and the hiring of former Patriots front-office guru Scott Pioli as GM and ex-Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley as coach. Pioli made a deal to obtain QB Matt Cassel – who stepped in more than adequately for injured Tom Brady in New England last year – in a quest to begin revamping an offense that finished 24th in ypg (308.7) and 26th in ppg (18.2).
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The Chiefs’ defense was even worse, finishing second-to-last in total yards allowed (393.2) and 29th in points allowed (27.5). And though the games didn’t count, K.C. went 0-4 SU and ATS in the preseason, with Haley firing offensive coordinator Chan Gailey in the process. Cassel (MCL sprain) will be a game-time decision today, and if he can’t go, the start will go to Brodie Croyle (0-7 SU, 3-4 ATS last year as the starter).
Kansas City is on a 3-1 SU and ATS run in this rivalry, but Baltimore took the most recent meeting with a 20-10 road win as a three-point pup in 2006. The visitor cashed in all four of those contests.
The Ravens are on a bundle of spread-covering streaks, including 4-1 overall, 4-1 at home, 7-1 as a favorite, 8-2 against AFC foes and 13-4 as a non-division home chalk, though they’ve gone just 2-5 ATS in their last seven Week 1 tilts. The Chiefs, despite their putrid SU mark last year, are on pointspread upticks of 11-4 on the road (4-1 last five) and 8-0 as a double-digit pup.
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The under for Baltimore is on surges of 5-2 overall, 9-2 in season openers and 4-0 with the Ravens favored, and the under for Kansas City is on rolls of 14-5 on the highway (4-0 last four), 12-3 in September and 4-0 in Week 1.
ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE and UNDER
Miami at Atlanta
Two surprise playoff teams from last season aim to show their success wasn’t a fluke when the Falcons play host to the Dolphins at the Georgia Dome.
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Atlanta, which was 4-12 SU in 2007, went 11-5 SU (9-6-1 ATS) last year to earn a wild card, taking second in the NFC South behind Carolina. QB Matt Ryan’s won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors, but his year ended in the playoff opener, with the Falcons falling 30-24 to Arizona as a 1½-point road underdog. Ryan (61.1 completion percentage, 3,440 yards, 16 TDs, 11 INTs) and RB Michael Turner (1,699 yards, 17 TDs, 4.5 ypc) led an offense that finished sixth in total yards (361.2) and 10th in points (24.4) in coach Mike Smith’s first year.
Atlanta finished 24th in total defense (348.2 ypg) but 11th in scoring defense (20.3 ppg).
Miami went from a dismal 1-15 SU in 2007 to AFC East champs at 11-5 (8-8 ATS) in coach Tony Sparano’s first season, going 9-1 SU (5-5 ATS) to finish the regular season. However, like Atlanta, the Dolphins’ postseason was short-lived as they lost to visiting Baltimore 27-9 getting 3½ points in the wild-card round. QB Chad Pennington had a great first year in South Beach, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 3,653 yards, with 19 TDs against just seven INTs, as Miami averaged 345.6 ypg (12th) and 21.6 ppg (21st).
Defensively, the Dolphins allowed 329 ypg (15th) and finished ninth in points allowed (19.8 ppg).
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These teams have met twice in the regular season this decade, with both notching a win and Atlanta going 1-0-1 ATS, having posted a 17-10 road victory in 2005 as a two-point favorite.
The Falcons have cashed in nine of their last 11 season openers, and they are on further ATS rolls of 13-5 in non-conference affairs and 6-3 at home, but they failed to cover in four of their last five to end the year. The Dolphins are on ATS runs of 6-1 on the highway, 6-2 as a pup and 5-0 as a road pup, but they carry negative ATS streaks of 1-4-1 in Week 1, 0-3-1 in road openers, 1-7-2 in September and 1-6-1 against the NFC.
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The over is 9-3 in Atlanta’s last 12 at home and 5-1 in Miami’s last six September starts, but the under is on stretches of 4-1 in Week 1 for Atlanta, 9-4 with the Falcons favored, 5-1 overall for Miami and 4-1 for the Dolphins on the road.
ATS ADVANTAGE: ATLANTA
St. Louis at Seattle
A battle of NFC West rivals, both coming off poor seasons, takes place at Qwest Field when the Seahawks open the Jim Mora era against the Rams and new coach Steve Spagnuolo.
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Seattle, without starting QB Matt Hasselbeck (back, knee) for nine games, went 4-12 SU (7-8-1 ATS) and needed to win two of their last three just to do that after losing six in a row in the middle of the campaign. Hasselbeck struggled when he did play, completing just 52.2 percent of his passes for 1,216 yards, with 5 TDs offset by 10 INTs, and the Seahawks’ offense averaged just 274.1 ypg (28th) and 18.4 ppg (25th). Hasselbeck is back and healthy for 2009.
With Seattle’s offense lacking, the defense took a beating in ’08, giving up 378 ypg (30th) and 24.5 ppg (25th), and the Seahawks finished minus-7 in turnover differential.
The Rams fared even worse last year, going 2-14 SU (6-10 ATS), dropping their last 10 in a row (4-6 ATS). QB Marc Bulger started 15 games but put up paltry numbers, throwing for just 2,720 yards, with 11 TDs and 13 INTs, and star RB Steven Jackson missed four games, though he still had 1,042 rushing yards (4.1 ypc) and seven TDs. The Rams were 27th in ypg (287.2) and tied for 30th in ppg (14.5).
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Defensively, only Detroit gave up more points than St. Louis, which surrendered 29.5 ppg and 371.9 ypg (28th).
Seattle has claimed eight in a row in this rivalry (6-2 ATS), winning and cashing in both matchups last season. In September, the Seahawks rolled 37-13 as a nine-point home chalk, and they eked out a 23-20 road win in December laying one point. Seattle has covered the last four from the favorite’s role against St. Louis.
Mora was with Seattle last year as the coach-in-waiting under Mike Holmgren, while St. Louis fired Scott Linehan early last season and in January hired Spagnuolo, who had been the Giants’ defensive coordinator.
The Seahawks are on ATS surges of 9-4-1 at home, 8-3 in division play and 7-2 as a chalk, but they are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 season openers. The Rams, meanwhile, are on nothing but negative pointspread streaks, including 6-13 overall, 4-10 against the NFC, 6-20-1 in September, 1-7 in the division and 1-7-1 in Week 1.
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The over hit in both games last year between these two, and the over for Seattle is on runs of 5-1-1 inside the division and 5-1-1 with the Seahawks a home favorite. However, the under is 6-2-1 in Seattle’s last nine overall and 4-1 in its last five at Qwest, and the under for St. Louis is on rolls of 4-1-1 overall, 7-1 in Week 1 and 8-3 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE
Washington at N.Y. Giants
The Giants, who bowed out of the playoffs early last year following their stunning Super Bowl victory to cap 2007, open the 2009 campaign for the second year in a row at home and against the NFC East rival Redskins in East Rutherford, N.J.
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Following its Super Bowl upset of the Patriots, New York got out to an 11-1 SU start (10-2 ATS) last year before losing three of its last four, though it still won the division at 12-4 SU and tied for the league’s best ATS mark, also 12-4. The top-seeded Giants got a first-round bye, then fell flat to Philadelphia 23-11 as a four-point home chalk in the divisional round.
QB Eli Manning, without key threat Plaxico Burress later in the year, finished with 3,238 passing yards and had 21 TDs and just 10 picks. He was boosted by the league’s best running attack (157.4 ypg, 5.0 ypc), with Brandon Jacobs (1,089 yards, 15 TDs, 5.0 ypc) and Derrick Ward (1,025 yards, 5.6 ypc) both cracking 1,000 yards, though Ward has moved on to the Buccaneers. New York finished tied for third in scoring (26.7 ppg) and seventh in total offense (355.9 ypg), to go with fifth in total defense (292.0) and fifth in scoring defense (18.4 ppg).
Washington jumped out of the gate with a 6-2 SU start (5-3 ATS), then went 2-6 SU (1-5-2 ATS) in the second half to finish out of the playoffs at 8-8 (6-8-2 ATS). QB Jason Campbell (3,245 yards passing, 13 TDs, 6 INTs) had a mediocre year as the ‘Skins relied on RB Clinton Portis (1,487 yards, 9 TDs, 4.3 ypc) for an offense that netted 320 ypg (19th) and just 16.6 ppg (28th).
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Washington’s defense was its strength a season ago, finishing fourth in total yards (288.8 ypg) and sixth in points allowed (18.5 ppg).
The Giants are 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six clashes in this rivalry, winning and covering both meetings last year, with a 16-7 season-opening victory as a 4½-point home favorite and a 23-7 November road win laying 3½. The chalk is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings, and New York has covered four of the last five at home. However, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five battles.
The Giants carry nothing but positive ATS trends, including 20-6 overall, 4-1 in September, 6-2 giving points and 37-16-2 against NFC opponents. The Redskins, meanwhile, are on a 5-1 ATS roll as a division road ‘dog, but they are in pointspread ruts of 1-5-2 overall and 2-7-2 in Week 1.
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In this rivalry, the total has stayed low in the last four meetings overall and five of the last six. In addition, the under for New York is on upticks of 5-1 overall and 4-0 in division play, and the under for Washington is on tears of 10-1-1 overall, 6-0 in season openers, 4-0 in the NFC East and 11-4-1 in September.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. GIANTS and UNDER
San Francisco at Arizona
The defending NFC champion Cardinals open 2009 with a division contest against the 49ers at University of Phoenix Stadium.
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Arizona went just 9-7 SU and ATS last season, but that was enough to win a weak NFC West, and the Cardinals got hot from there, going 3-0 SU and ATS with wins over Atlanta (home), Carolina (road) and Philadelphia (home) in the NFC title game to reach its first-ever Super Bowl. Arizona gave Pittsburgh all it could handle in the championship contest, losing 27-23 but cashing as a 6½-point pup.
QB Kurt Warner had a huge regular season (67.1 completion percentage, 4,583 yards, 30 TDs, 14 INTs) and was equally solid in the four-game playoff run (68.1 completion percentage, 1,147 yards, 11 TDs, 3 INTs). Arizona tied for the third-best scoring attack (26.7 ppg) and averaged 365.8 ypg (fourth). Defensively, the Cards allowed 26.6 ppg (28th) and 331.5 ypg (19th).
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San Francisco won four of its last five (3-1-1 ATS) to finish 7-9 SU (7-8-1 ATS), with coach Mike Nolan fired in midseason and replaced by Mike Singletary. QB Shaun Hill started the last eight games and passed for 2,046 yards with 13 TDs and eight INTs, and RB Frank Gore had 1,036 yards and six TDs for an offense that finished 23rd in total yards (311.1) and 22nd in ppg (21.2). The Niners’ defense yielded 326 ypg (13th) and 23.8 ppg (23rd).
Arizona won both meetings last year in this rivalry, splitting the cash after failing to cover in a 29-24 home victory as a 9½-point home chalk on a Monday night in mid-November. In fact, the road team is on a 7-0 ATS tear, and the 49ers are 4-1 ATS on their last five trips to the desert. The underdog has cashed in five of the last six contests.
The Cards are on positive ATS runs of 5-0 overall, 4-0 at home, 6-1 in division play and 9-2 as a favorite. The 49ers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight outings and are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a pup, but they’ve gone just 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine games against NFC foes.
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The over for Arizona is on hot streaks of 36-16 overall, 21-7 at home and 42-19 in conference action, and the over for San Francisco is on runs of 5-1 against NFC foes and 4-1 in division play. Finally, the over has been the play in eight of the last 11 clashes overall in this rivalry, including five in a row at Arizona.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
Chicago at Green Bay
The Bears, having finally acquired a legitimate franchise quarterback in Jay Cutler, hit the highway for an NFC North clash with the rival Packers at Lambeau Field.
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Chicago needed three wins in its final four games – including two in overtime -- just to finish above .500 last year at 9-7 SU (6-8-2 ATS). Cutler takes over for Kyle Orton, sent to Denver as part of the trade, and the Bears’ new QB finished third in passing last year with 4,526 yards with 25 TDs and 18 INTs. Cutler has an outstanding RB Matt Forte, who rushed for 1,238 yards (seventh) and eight TDs as a rookie.
The Bears averaged 295.9 ypg (26th) and scored 23.4 ppg (tied for 14th) on offense, while giving up 334.7 ypg (21st) and 21.9 ppg (tied for 16th).
Green Bay finished 2008 on a 1-5 SU and ATS slide, going 6-10 SU (8-8 ATS) in its first year without Brett Favre. However, QB Aaron Rodgers made big strides in his first season as a starter, passing for 4,038 yards with 28 TDs against 13 INTs, and RB Ryan Grant rushed for 1,203 yards despite missing two games. The Pack finished fifth in scoring (26.2 ppg) and eighth in total yards (351.1 ypg). Defensively, Green Bay was 20th in yards allowed (334.3) and 22nd in points surrendered (23.8).
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Green Bay cashed in both clashes last year in this rivalry (1-1 SU), routing Chicago 37-3 at home as a 3½-point chalk in November, then losing 20-17 in overtime in December as a four-point road ‘dog. The Packers are 11-5-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings, but the visitor is on a 13-6-1 ATS run, and the underdog has covered in four of the last five matchups.
The Bears carry a bundle of negative ATS trends, including 2-6-1 overall, 2-6-1 in September, 0-4 in the NFC North, 0-4 getting points and 1-4 on the road. And along with their current 1-5 ATS slide, the Packers are in pointspread ruts of 0-4 as a favorite and 2-5 at home, but they’ve gone 7-2 ATS in their last nine September starts and 6-1 ATS in their last seven division games.
The under for Chicago is on rolls of 5-0 in Week 1 and 7-2 on the highway, but the over is 28-12-1 in the Bears’ last 41 conference contests. The over for Green Bay is on stretches of 19-7-1 overall, 6-1 in September, 13-3 as a chalk, 7-2 in division play and 10-3 at Lambeau.
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Finally, both of last year’s contests went under the posted price.
ATS ADVANTAGE: GREEN BAY
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Tips and Trends
Washington Redskins at New York Giants
Redskins: To those who favor taking an NFL ‘dog getting around a touchdown with a low-scoring total, the Redskins are a prime candidate. The Redskins had a top-five defense last year allowing 288 yards per game and added star run-stuffer Albert Haynesworth and rookie pass rusher Bryan Orapako. Washington opened 6-2, but closed just 8-8 after that hot start as its offense finished 28th in points scored averaging 16.6 per game. The Redskins are counting on veterans Clinton Portis, who rushed for 1,487 yards, and wideout Santana Moss, who had 1,044 receiving yards. Improvement is needed from quarterback Jason Campbell, who should be better playing in coach Jim Zorn’s system a second season. He threw 13 touchdown passes last season. The under has come in the past six times these teams have played at Giants Stadium. The underdog, however, has covered only twice in the past nine meetings.
The Redskins are 2-7-2 ATS in their last 11 games during Week 1.
The Under is 10-1-1 in Washington’s last 12 games overall.
Key Injuries - None
PROJECTED SCORE: 16 (Side of the Day)
Giants (-6.5, O/U 37): Brandon Jacobs spearheads a Giants ground attack that led the NFL in rushing last season. Jacobs ran for 1,089 yards and scored 15 touchdowns. Speedy third-year back Ahmad Bradshaw will spell Jacobs. The key for the Giants is building up their passing attack minus Plaxico Burress. New York averaged 29.9 points with Burress and 18.2 points after he was suspended, while dropping four of its last five games, including a home playoff loss to the Eagles. Eli Manning is looking for a No. 1 go-to wide receiver among his largely inexperienced wideouts to replace Burress so he can stretch defenses and keep them from stacking the line against the run. The Giants have a fierce pass rush. It has been fortified with the return of star defensive end Osi Umenyiora. New York’s secondary, however, remains a concern. New York is 20-6 against the spread in its last 26.
The Giants are 37-16-2 ATS in their last 55 games against NFC opponents.
Key Injuries - Cornerback Aaron Ross (leg) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 21
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
Bears: Having gone through an NFC-high 11 different starting quarterbacks during the past nine years, the Bears finally hope they found a franchise one in Jay Cutler. He set a Denver franchise record with 384 completion and 4,526 yards passing last year, throwing for 300 or more yards eight times. By comparison, Kyle Orton threw for more than 300 yards just once for Chicago in 2008. The Bears ranked 26th in total yards and were out-gained by an average of 39 yards per game during 2008. The Bears’ defense has slipped since their Super Bowl appearance three years ago. Chicago ranked third-from-the-bottom in pass defense last season giving up 241 yards through the air per contest. Cornerback Charles Tillman is coming off back surgery and may not play. The Bears are 2-7 against the number as a road underdog in the price range of 3 ½ to 10 points.
The Under has cashed in 7 of Chicago’s last nine road contests.
Key Injuries - Cornerback Charles Tillman (back) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Packers (-4, O/U 46.5): Aaron Rodgers ran the Packers’ offense to near perfection during preseason and is poised to attack a vulnerable Bears secondary. Green Bay outscored their preseason foes, 92-58, when its first-string offense was on the field. Rodgers had a near perfect quarterback rating of 147.9. The Packers never punted during preseason when their first-string unit played. Chicago allowed starting quarterbacks to complete better than 80 percent of their throws in preseason. Green Bay’s starting defense also shined during exhibition forcing 13 turnovers, while making the conversion to a 3-4 alignment. The Bears last saw this type of defense in the NFC North in 1994. Green Bay finished four games below .500 last season, but out-gained opponents by 17 yards per game. The Packers are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven NFC North contests. They have covered seven of their last nine games in September.
The Over has cashed in 10 of Green Bay’s previous 13 home games.
Key Injuries - Running back Brandon Jackson (ankle) is doubtful.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26 (UNDER - Total of the Day)