NFL News and Notes Sunday 9/19

NFL Week 2's Biggest Betting Mismatches
By SCOTT COOLEY

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-5, 48)

New York rush offense vs. Indianapolis rush defense

The Colts rush defense—which has had major problems in the past and ranked 24th in the NFL last year (126.5 ypg)—allowed Texans running back Arian Foster to rumble for 231 yards and three scores last week. Now that unit must cope with the loss of one of its top run-stoppers in safety Bob Sanders who suffered a torn biceps in Week 1.

Tom Coughlin said before the season that New York will recommit itself to the run after a major dropoff last year. The tandem of Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs led the league in rushing in 2008 but injuries slowed its production last season.

"Coaches said we're going to get back to running the ball this year, and the backs are really excited about it," Bradshaw said. "The running game will be good."

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+6, 41.5)

Philadelphia takeaway vs. Detroit giveaway

Eagles defensive coordinator Sean McDermott loves to dial up the blitz just like his predecessor and mentor—the late Jim Johnson. That aggressive approach produced 33 takeaways last season and Philadelphia finished second in the NFC with a +15 turnover margin.

In his rookie season, Matt Stafford contributed to Detroit’s league-high 32 interceptions. Couple that with nine fumbles last year and the cowardly Lions finished last in the NFL with a -18 turnover ratio.

Philadelphia picked off a polished Aaron Rodgers twice last week so this defensive unit should be able to feast on the weak arm of Shaun Hill. Constant blitz packages pressuring an immobile quarterback could also create some short fields for the Eagles.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3, 38.5)

New England pass offense vs. Antonio Cromartie/Kyle Wilson

We’re not even going to mention the name of that shutdown corner that just got paid because Tom Brady would be stupid to throw the ball in his direction. The other side of the Jets’ secondary can be exploited however.

Last week, Rex Ryan was incessant with blitzing Baltimore so Joe Flacco just started tossing the ball up in the direction of Antonio Cromartie or Kyle Wilson. The Ravens were rewarded with some long receptions and defensive yellow flags.

If Wilson is left on an island again New England’s wideouts are going to absolutely abuse the rookie. Cromartie is a high risk/high reward type of gambling corner and that never seems to work out against a prolific passing offense like the Pats.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-3.5, 39)

Tampa Bay pass offense vs. Carolina pass defense

Bucs quarterback Josh Freeman was self-admittedly rusty last Sunday after only having limited practice reps for a week because of a broken thumb. He ended up delivering the game-winning touchdown pass against Cleveland but missed a wide open Mike Williams for a touchdown and a myriad of other receivers. Freeman finished the contest with 182 yards through the air.

The rookie Williams is really the only receiving threat on a Tampa Bay squad that ranked 24th in passing last season with 18 touchdowns against 29 interceptions.

Carolina finished 2009 fourth in pass defense (191.0 ypg), allowing just 14 touchdowns against 22 interceptions. That unit absolutely shut down the Buccaneers in two meetings last season.

In the first game, Tampa totaled 121 passing yards with an interception. In the second attempt, Raheem Morris decided to let his rookie fling it around. Freeman completed 23 of 44 attempts for 315 yards but threw five interceptions and zero touchdowns during the 16-6 loss.

Gridiron Angles - Week 2
By Vince Akins

Ravens at Bengals - The Ravens are 8-0 ATS (13.1 ppg) since December 31, 2006 off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The League is 8-0 ATS (5.2 ppg) since October 11, 2009 on the road the week after scoring fewer than 17 points and winning. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-9.9 ppg) since November 21, 2004 as a home dog when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is greater than 30.

Seahawks at Broncos - The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-11.5 ppg) since November 23, 2003 as a dog when they covered by 10+ points last week. The Seahawks are 0-9 ATS (-12.4 ppg) since November 27, 2008 as a road dog.

Chiefs at Browns - The Chiefs are 9-0-1 ATS (9.1 ppg) since December 05, 2004 on the road when facing a team that has averaged less than 28 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Chiefs are 7-0-1 ATS (7.6 ppg) since October 31, 2004 within 3 of pick off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week. The Browns are 10-0-1 ATS (4.2 ppg) since October 12, 2003 at home when they stopped their opponent on at least 10 third downs last game. The Browns are 9-0-1 ATS (10.1 ppg) since September 13, 1993 at home when facing an undefeated team after week 1.

Jaguars at Chargers - The Jaguars are 11-0 ATS (11.0 ppg) since September 26, 2004 as a dog after never having a goal to go last game. The Chargers are 0-8 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 20, 1998 at home when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a divisional opponent.

Giants at Colts - The Giants are 8-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since October 03, 2004 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Colts are 9-0 ATS (16.4 ppg) when they trailed a divisional opponent by at least a TD after three quarters last game.

Bears at Cowboys - The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since November 16, 2008 as a road dog. The Bears are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.2 ppg) since December 11, 2005 as a dog after a straight up win as a favorite. The Cowboys are 0-12 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 10, 1995 when they had 24+ first downs last game and no more than one sack. The Cowboys are 7-0-1 ATS (9.2 ppg) since October 09, 1994 as a home 7+ favorite when facing a team that has benefited from an average of at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. . The Bears are 0-17 OU (-8.5 ppg) since October 1999 as a 6+ dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.89 yards per carry season-to-date.

Cardinals at Falcons - The Falcons are 0-7 ATS (-7.9 ppg) since December 10, 2007 when facing a team that has passed the ball on at least 60% of their offensive plays, season-to-date. The Falcons are 7-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since October 24, 2005 as a home favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Cardinals are 11-0 OU (8.1 ppg) since November 17, 2002 on the road the week after a game in which they committed at least four turnovers.

Patriots at Jets - The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS (11.3 ppg) since November 02, 2008 versus any team with fewer wins. after a straight up win. The Jets are 8-0-1 ATS (10.8 ppg) since September 17, 1995 at home after a straight up loss at home. The Jets are 0-7-1 ATS (-10.0 ppg) since December 26, 2004 at home vs a divisional opponent before playing on the road. The Patriots are 0-9 OU (-9.2 ppg) since October 10, 1999 within 3 of pick when facing a team that has forced an average of at least six punts per game season-to-date.

Eagles at Lions - The League is 9-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) since December 04, 2005 as a road favorite versus any team with the same record, after a straight up loss at home. The Lions are 0-8 ATS (-15.6 ppg) since December 07, 2003 at home when they play on the road in each of the next two weeks. The Lions are 0-8 ATS (-14.5 ppg) since November 06, 2005 when one game under 500. The League is 7-0 ATS (11.6 ppg) since November 22, 2009 as a dog the week after a loss in which they punted at least eight times. The Eagles are 0-8-1 OU (-8.2 ppg) since November 04, 2001 as a road favorite when they are facing a team that has allowed at least 12 yards per completion season-to-date.

Bills at Packers - The Bills are 0-11 ATS (-10.5 ppg) since November 23, 1997 when they faced Miami last game as an underdog. The Packers are 0-8 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since October 8, 1995 when they led by double-digits at the end of the third quarter last game and finished with a positive turnover margin. The Packers are 10-0 OU (18.9 ppg) since September 16, 2007 off a SU and ATS win last week vs a team that is off a SU and ATS loss last week.

Buccaneers at Panthers - The Buccaneers are 0-8 ATS (-14.4 ppg) since October 20, 1996 within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they did not have the lead after any of the first three quarters. The Buccaneers are 0-7 ATS (-16.6 ppg) since October 20, 1996 within 3 of pick on the road after a win in which they were losing at the end of the third quarter. The Panthers are 9-0-1 ATS (12.7 ppg) since October 15, 1995 within 3 of pick at home after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Panthers are 7-0 ATS (15.9 ppg) since November 01, 2009 versus any team with more wins.

Rams at Raiders - The Raiders are 0-11 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since November 27, 2005 as a favorite. The Raiders are 0-9 ATS (-10.9 ppg) since October 20, 2002 at home when they allowed at least at least three first downs via penalty last game. The Raiders are 0-8-1 ATS (-6.1 ppg) since September 14, 2003 when one game under 500 after playing on the road. The Rams are 7-0 OU (10.6 ppg) since October 22, 1989 the week after a loss in which they benefited from at least four turnovers. The Raiders are 13-0-1 OU (12.8 ppg) since September 14, 1997 as a favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing on the road against a non-divisional opponent.

Texans at Redskins - The Texans are 0-7 ATS (-7.4 ppg) since October 10, 2004 when facing a team that has allowed an average of at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Redskins are 0-8-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since December 16, 2001 within 3 of pick after a straight up win as a dog. The Redskins are 7-0 ATS (10.4 ppg) since September 08, 1996 within 3 of pick when facing an undefeated team after week 1. The Redskins are 0-7 OU (-7.5 ppg) since December 02, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date.

Steelers at Titans - The Titans are 9-0 ATS (8.8 ppg) since December 22, 2002 when they covered by double-digits last week while throwing for less than 150 yards. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-7.8 ppg) since October 22, 2006 on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 11, 2007 when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date.

Dolphins at Vikings - The Dolphins are 9-0 ATS (6.2 ppg) since December 23, 2007 as a road dog after a straight up win. The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (13.9 ppg) since October 13, 1996 as a dog when facing a team that has averaged at least six punts per game season-to-date. The Vikings are 7-0 ATS (16.4 ppg) since October 24, 1999 as a favorite versus any team with more wins, after a straight up loss on the road.

Saints at 49ers - The Saints are 9-0 ATS (16.8 ppg) since December 10, 2006 on the road vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home. The 49ers are 7-0 ATS (12.3 ppg) since September 21, 2008 at home between away games. The 49ers are 7-0-1 ATS (7.9 ppg) since November 10, 2008 as a dog when facing a team that has completed at least 65% of their passes season-to-date. The Saints are 13-0 OU (11.8 ppg) since November 17, 1991 on the road the week after a win at home in which their dps was negative. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-12.5 ppg) since December 14, 2006 when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week. The 49ers are 0-8 OU (-15.3 ppg) since October 2005 as a dog when they lost by 20+ points last week.

Total Talk - Week 2
By Chris David

Week 1 Recap

Some experts like to believe that defensive units are ahead of the offense early in the season and while it’s too unpredictable to tell at times, that was the certainly the case in Week 1. Only five teams busted the 30-point barrier and only an additional five posted 20-plus or more. With all of the low-scoring affairs, the ‘under’ wound up going 10-4-2 and more importantly, all three of the primetime nationally televised games went ‘under’ as well. So you know the sportsbooks were smiling even though the money went the other direction with the pair of pushes.

Will we see the scoreboard operator be putting in overtime come Week 2 or are we looking at another round of defensive slugfests? Let’s take a closer look at what’s on tap and point out some key numbers.

Misleading Stats

If you don’t have the time to watch the games, then do yourself a favor and review the box scores and drive charts of every game before you look at the final score. Statistics don’t lie and there are some Week 1 performances that should be evaluated further.

Kansas City – The Chiefs scored 21 points against the Chargers while only putting up 197 total yards. The offense had one big rushing touchdown, was fortunate to get another possession started on the Bolts’ 12-yard line and they had a 94-yard punt return touchdown. They won by seven, but the defense gave up 389 total yards.

Indianapolis – Peyton Manning and the offense did their job last week, putting up 463 yards against the Texans but they only had four scores (3 TDs, 1 FG). Some untimely penalties and a key fumble kept points off the board.

Seattle – The Seahawks only had one legit drive in Week 1 against San Francisco, which led to a touchdown. The other 24 points were set up on short tracks, plus a defensive touchdown was added as well. The 49ers outyarded (263-242) and controlled the clock but turnovers killed the visitor in this one.

Divisional Battles

Due to the NFL placing an importance on divisional contests late in the season, we’re going to see a lot of non-divisional matchups take place early, which is the case in Week 2. Only two out of 16 games this week feature divisional opponents. Let’s take a closer look at the pair.

Baltimore at Cincinnati – Last season, the ‘under’ easily went 2-0 in the head-to-head meetings and that’s no coincidence. All of the last five meetings have never seen more than 37 combined points posted on the scoreboard. This week’s number is 40 and if the trends continue, then this looks easy. However, both clubs possess some weapons behind center with the Ravens’ Joe Flacco and Bengals’ Carson Palmer. Baltimore only put up 10 points last week but it had opportunities to post more, but two turnovers cost themselves points. Cincinnati was diced up by the Patriots and they gave up 14 points to their defense and special teams too. One of the keys to slowing down the game is moving the ball and running the clock, and both these squads have proven ground games as well.

New England at N.Y. Jets – The number on this game opened at 40 at two big offshore outfits and now sits at 38 1/2, but since this is the marquee late-afternoon game on Sunday, the public market could push it back up. Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘under’ the total and the Patriots have only allowed the Jets to score more than 17 points just twice in the last 15 meetings. New England put up 38 points against Cincinnati in Week 1, 14 coming from the defense and special teams. Despite those two touchdowns, the offense was four for seven on offensive possessions and the team missed two field goals. The Jets’ attack could only muster up three field goals in a 10-9 loss to Baltimore. They posted 176 yards and were a pathetic 1-of-11 on third-down conversions. QB Mark Sanchez looked handcuffed or he had no confidence in going deep at all. Most would expect New York to play the field position game and keep the Pats’ offense off the field. If that happens, then one would think that another low-scoring affair is possible.

Under the Lights

As we mentioned above, all three games on the big stage last week went ‘under’ the total, including the Saints 14-9 victory over the Vikings last Thursday. The combined 23 points never threatened the closing total of 49 and now New Orleans is back in the spotlight this week, this time on the road.

New Orleans heads to San Francisco for the first of four games against NFC West opponents this year. It’s still early to tell if the Saints’ juggernaut is anything like last year, but some warning signs might be on the horizon. During its championship run, New Orleans was held under 14 points once and that came in Week 17 to Carolina (10-23) when they didn’t play the starters.

The number on this week’s game against the 49ers is hovering between 44 and 45. San Francisco is coming off an embarrassing 31-6 setback at Seattle, which saw the offense put up 263 total yards and the offense was 1-of-15 on third downs. When you toss in eight penalties, a few drops and two interceptions, it’s not surprising that you only mustered up a half-dozen points. The Seahawks didn’t do anything spectacular on offense (242 yards) except capitalize on the 49ers’ mistakes, plus their defense added seven on a pick to the house.

The 49ers watched the ‘under’ go 6-2 at home last year, due to a solid defense and ability to milk the clock with Frank Gore. If New Orleans gets ahead, it’s hard to believe San Francisco sticking with Gore but stranger things have happened, especially with Alex Smith at quarterback.

New Orleans played twice on MNF last year and they watched the total hold steady at 1-1. On the road in 2009, the Saints saw the number draw even (4-4) again as well. But they only had one total listed as low as the number for this battle.

vegasinsider.com

NFL Tech Trends - Week 2
By Bruce Marshall

KANSAS CITY at CLEVELAND...Although KC opened smartly with a win and cover at home vs. San Diego, Chiefs were better vs. line on road (5-3) than at home (2-6) LY, and are 16-8 vs. line away (all as dog) since ‘07. Browns 10-5 as chalk for Romeo Crennel and Eric Mangini since ‘07. Tech edge-slight to Chiefs, based on extended road mark.

BUFFALO at GREEN BAY...Bills "under" 12-6 last 18 since late ‘08. Pack 34-17 vs. line since late ‘06, also "over" 32-20 since ‘07. Tech edge-Pack, based on team trends.

BALTIMORE at CINCINNATI...Teams have taken turns sweeping one another the past three seasons, if pattern continues this will be Ravens’ year. If Cincy chalk note 0-8 mark in role LY and 4-17 last 21 since late ‘06. Marvin Lewis also "under" 18-8 last 26 at Paul Brown Stadium. "Unders" 5-2 last 7 in series. Tech edge-Ravens, especially if dog, and slight to "under" based on team and "totals" trends.

PITTSBURGH at TENNESSEE...Titans have covered last 2 years vs. Steel and are also "over" 11-4-1 last 16 as host. Tomlin 7-2 as dog with Steel and Pittsburgh "over" 8-4 last 12 away. Tech edge-"Over" and slight to Steel, based on "totals" and team trends.

PHILADELPHIA at DETROIT...Andy Reid 4-1 as road chalk LY and 8-4 laying 7 points or more since ‘07. Lions 8-15 vs. line at home since ‘07. Lions also "over" 12-6-1 last 19 at Ford Field. Tech edge-slight to Eagles and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.

CHICAGO at DALLAS...Wade Phillips now 10-4 his last 14 as home chalk. Meanwhile, Lovie Smith just 3-10 vs. number last 13 on road, 0-5 as road dog LY, 4-11 in role since ‘07. Tech edge-Cowboys, based on team trends.

TAMPA BAY at CAROLINA...Carolina has won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 meetings. Panthers also "under" 17-7 since ‘07 at Charlotte. Raheem Morris "under" 11-6 since LY. Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.

ARIZONA at ATLANTA...Whisenhunt 7-1 as dog LY and now 10-1 last 11 in role. Falcs, however, were 6-2 as chalk LY (5-1 in role at home). Atlanta also "under" 6-2 at Georgia Dome LY, and Cards were "under" 11-5 in reg. season LY). Tech edge-"Under" and slight to Cards, based on team trends.

MIAMI at MINNESOTA...Vikes 6-2 vs. line at home LY, all as chalk. Sparano, however, 11-4 vs. line last 15 away from home. He’s also "under" 9-4 last 13 away. Tech edge-slight to Dolphins and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

ST. LOUIS at OAKLAND...Raiders 0-6 as chalk since ‘07, 0-11 last 11 in role. Rams "under" 18-9 last 27 away. Tech edge-Rams and "under," based on team, and "totals" trends.

SEATTLE at DENVER...Seahawks 1-8 last 9 vs. line away and 8-17 last 25 as visitor. Josh McDaniels was 3-3 as chalk LY but Broncos had been real chalk underachievers in the later Shanahan years (just 6-23 in Shan’s last 29 as chalk with Broncos). Seattle "over" 7-3 last 10 away. Tech edge-slight to "over," based on Seahawk "totals" trend.

HOUSTON at WASHINGTON...Interesting Kubiak vs. Shanahan, Kubiak won previous meeting 31-13 in ‘07. Kubiak 8-4 vs. line his last 12 on road, although Texans just 1-4 as road chalk since '07. Prior to wild win and cover in Dallas opener, Skins were just 3-11 vs. line their last 14 as host for Jim Zorn, and Shanahan had a 4-17 home spread mark his last 21 as host in Denver. Skins also "under" 20-9 last 29 at home. Tech edge-Texans and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

JACKSONVILLE at SAN DIEGO...Del Rio just 3-8 vs. number last 11 away (all as dog). Previous solid Del Rio dog mark has been waning lately. But Norv’s early-season numbers nothing to get excited about (Bolts 5-9-1 vs. line first 5 games of season since ‘07). Tech edge-slight to Chargers, based on recent Jag spread woes.

NEW ENGLAND at NY JETS...Teams have split SU the past 2 years and split the season series vs. spread the past four years. Belichick actually 9-6 vs. line away since ‘08 and "under" 7-2 last 9 away. Tech edge-slight to Patriots and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.

NY GIANTS at INDIANAPOLIS...Coughlin is 14-5 his last 19 as dog since late ‘06, 11-4 as dog on road. Indy just 11-13 as home chalk since ‘07. Tech edge-Giants, based on team trends.

NEW ORLEANS at SAN FRANCISCO...Singletary "under" 15-6-1 last 22 and 49ers 7-1 last 8 as dog, also 7-2-1 vs. line their last 10 as host. Singletary 14-7-1 last 22 on board (though 0-1 in 2010). Tech edge-49ers and "under," based on Singletary trends.

NFL Game 2 Golden Situation
By Tom Stryker

The first week of NFL action is in the books. Considering the home teams went 12-4 SU and 10-4-2 ATS, there's a pretty good chance that most of you found your way into the profit zone last weekend. Regardless of whether you made or lost money, the NFL moves forward and now you're forced to look at another 16 intriguing games.

So what do you do in game two? My database goes all the way back to 1980 and I looked at a number of different sets. For example: Road teams off road wins, road teams off home losses, home teams off blowout home wins and even home teams off crushing road losses. After hours of intense research, I discovered only one real area that provided us with serious reward potential. It is important to note that this game two situation requires that both teams be playing their second regular season game. Take a look.

Since 1980, game two hosts have struggled a touch posting a soft 197-226-13 ATS record. Surprisingly, teams that enter off a straight up loss have done much worse notching a dismal 94-126-5 ATS mark. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take a game two team at home coming off a straight up loss thinking that they would bounce back after losing their season opener. That's exactly what you don't want to do!

With our 94-126-5 ATS situation in hand, this system gets much worse if we bring in our opponent hungry and off a straight up loss as well. Since 1980, game two home teams in a "lose-lose" set (that is both teams enter off straight up losses) are a miserable 36-65-3 ATS. For the most part, the general public would always knee-jerk to a home team coming off a straight up loss especially early in the season. The linemaker knows that and he often brings this host in inflated and overpriced.

There are a couple of additional tighteners that can be applied to this general system that really make it pop. First, with the 36-65-3 ATS base in play, this situation crashes to a stunning 18-44 ATS provided this is a non-division game. Anytime two division teams do battle the importance of the game and the emotion involved is always greater. Early season division losses hurt the most and home teams enter with a much more intense focus. We were able to remove a mediocre 18-21-3 ATS mark from this system by eliminating division contests!

Second, provided our "play against" team did not lose by 20 points or more last, this awesome angle tightens up to a profitable 14-40 ATS! Blowout losses have a history of either making technical situations very good or very bad. In this case, we were able to eliminate a 4-4 ATS record from this system by taking out teams that got rocked by 20 points or more last.

Fortunately for us, there is one home team that is locked into this general system and the host also applies to both tighteners. Last Sunday, Detroit dropped its season opener at Chicago by six points and the Lions now must tackle an NFC East Philadelphia team that lost by seven in its own backyard to Green Bay.

There is one additional tightener that applies to this system that holds a stunning 0-21 ATS record (YES it does apply to the Lions) but that will remain for my eyes only. Good luck with the Green Birds on Sunday! I'll be back next week with another money-making technical situation for your arsenal.

Giants at Colts: What Bettors Need to Know
By RICKY DIMON

The second installment of the Manning Bowl is set for primetime; the Giants and Colts will square off for the first time in four years on Sunday night.

Peyton got the best of Eli in September of 2006 and Indianapolis went on to win the Super Bowl that season. The Colts are looking for similar good fortune to regain some momentum following a 34-24 loss at Houston in Week 1. The Giants are bidding for a 2-0 start following a 31-18 home victory over Carolina.

LINE MOVEMENT

The line opened with the Colts as 5.5-point favorites at most betting sites and it has stayed consistent within a one-point range between 4.5 and 5.5 over the past week. The total opened at 47.5 and has slowly made its way up to 48.5.

INJURY REPORT

It’s early in the season but injuries could be major factor on Sunday night. The Giants are listing both defensive end Osi Umenyiora and wide receiver Hakeem Nicks as questionable. Umenyiora has had some minor knee swelling and Nicks, who caught three touchdowns last week, is dealing with an ankle problem. Coach Tom Coughlin says both players will be game-time decisions.

Maybe even more crucial to New York’s success—considering the prolific passing attack of its Week 2 opponent—is the availability of safety Aaron Ross, who missed the season opener with a foot injury. Ross, however, is listed as probable on the injury report and expected to play.

The news is not particularly good for the Colts. Safety Bob Sanders is out indefinitely with a bicep injury and wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez will miss Sunday’s game due to a high ankle sprain. Linebacker Gary Brackett (back) and defensive lineman Robert Mathis (ankle) are listed as questionable and sat out Friday’s practice, although they were able to practice earlier in the week.

NOT ON THE INJURY REPORT BUT....

SB Nation Indianapolis Colts blog Stampede Blue is reporting that a credible source tells them Peyton Manning’s neck is giving him some problems. The injury isn’t something that’s going to keep Manning off the field. He owns the longest consecutive start streak after Brett Favre, so you know the guy’s a gamer.

Manning isn’t on the injury report but he did have surgery on his neck this past offseason. We’re not in the habit of reporting rumors, but we’ve worked a bit with the operators of Stampede Blue and we thought it was worthwhile mentioning.

You can read the complete blog post on Manning’s injury here.

PRIOR ENGAGEMENTS

In Manning Bowl I on September 10, 2006, Peyton’s Colts went on the road and edged Eli’s Giants 26-21.

Eli finished with slightly more impressive stats (20-for-34, 247 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT), but his primary weapons back then—and in that game—were since-departed Tiki Barber, Plaxico Burress, and Jeremy Shockey.

Peyton went 25-for-41 for 276 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Indy’s rushing attack was non-existent in the game, but now-retired Marvin Harrison hauled in nine passes for 113 yards and Dallas Clark—still around—made the touchdown catch.

The Giants and Colts have met only twice in the last eight years and three times in the last 11 years. Interestingly, the road team is both 3-0 SU and 3-0 ATS in the past three meetings, which took place in 1999, 2002, and 2006.

GROUNDED

Something’s gotta give when an Indianapolis defense, that got torched by Arian Foster and the Texans, goes up against a New York rushing attack that failed to do much against Carolina.

Foster ran all over the Colts in Week 1, racking up 231 yards--the most ever against the Colts--and three touchdowns. For the Giants, Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs ran for a combined 120 yards, only eight of which came prior to a clock-eating second half. Take away two of those runs for a combined 61 yards and the numbers would have been ghastly.

“I think you'd have to certainly take that approach,” said Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell when asked if he thought the Giants would try to exploit his team's run defense in the aftermath of Week 1. “If they look at the film they're certainly going to think, ‘We should be able to run the ball on these guys.’”

But New York knows that the Colts will be especially eager to get back on track. “After a week like that, we know they're going to concentrate more on the run than they probably ever did,” Jacobs explained. “You can't go out there sleeping on them and think that they're just going to lie down again and let you have your way with them.”

ALL IS FE-WELL ON DEFENSE

On the other side of the ball, the Giants were close to dominant last week against Carolina. They limited the Panthers to 89 rushing yards, forced three fumbles (recovering two), made three interceptions and knocked starting quarterback Matt Moore out of the game.

Not a bad debut for new defensive coordinator Perry Fewell.

“He's definitely an enthusiastic guy,” noted defensive end Mathias Kiwanuka. “A lot has been said about that. But his knowledge of the game, his love and his passion for it, it definitely bleeds into every part of this team, not just the defense.”

Fewell used aggressive packages when the Panthers were forced into passing situations, but New York will continue to emphasize stopping the run first.

“Everybody is hungry out there,” added tackle Barry Cofield. “We've got to stop the run and that's a sense of pride. Sacking the quarterback is like our dessert. It's like a treat.”

TRENDING TOPICS

Despite covering last week’s spread against the Panthers, New York is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games dating back to the 2009 season. Indianapolis 1-5 ATS in its last six games following an SU loss.

Both teams were solid on fieldturf last season. The Giants are 7-1 ATS in their past eight games on the surface and the Colts are 4-1-1 ATS in their past six.

The over is 6-0 in New York’s last six overall and 6-2 in Indianapolis’ last eight overall. The over is also 4-1-1 in New York’s last six road games.

Where The Action Is: NFL Week 2 Line Moves
By Greg Sindall

Kansas City at Cleveland

Opening line: Cleveland -2.5, 38
Current line: Cleveland -2.5, 39

Injuries caused this line to bounce around throughout the week dropping as low as Cleveland -1, but has settled back on the opener. After beating the Chargers in Week 1, it is not surprising to see 81 percent of the action is on Kansas City, mostly at +2.5. While action on the total is evenly split, sharp action is on Over 39.

Buffalo at Green Bay

Opening line: Green Bay -13.5, 43
Current line: Green Bay -13.5, 43

Good teams should easily beat bad teams at home. Both sharp and public money is on Green Bay (90 percent). With so much money backing a large favorite, it is not surprising to see that 57 percent of the action on the total is on the Over.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Opening line: Baltimore -1.5, 40
Current line: Baltimore -3, 39.5

The sharps and the public are in agreement with the Ravens taking 69 percent of the action, mostly at Baltimore -2.5. Likely in reaction to the Ravens’ incredible defensive effort in Week 1, 69 percent of the action on the total is on the Under.

Pittsburgh at Tennessee

Opening line: Tennessee -5.5, 37.5
Current line: Tennessee -5.5 -115, 37

Bettors do not have much faith in the Steelers with Dennis Dixon running the show. As a result, Tennessee is seeing 74 percent of the side action. Sharp action is also heavily on the side of the Titans. Nearly 57 percent of the action on the total is on the Under, mostly at 37.

Philadelphia at Detroit

Opening line: Philadelphia -3.5, 41
Current line: Philadelphia -7, 41.5

Early in the week, there was some uncertainty surrounding who would start at QB for the Eagles. Early sharp action on the Eagles shifted the line to -4.5 and then -5. Once it was announced that Michael Vick would be starting, the line jumped to Philadelphia -6.5. With 87 percent of the side action on the Eagles, the line now sits at -7. The Over is taking slightly more action at 53 percent.

Chicago at Dallas

Opening line: Dallas -8.5, 41
Current line: Dallas -7.5, 40.5

Sharp action came in early on the Bears at +8.5 causing the line to move. Dallas is a public team so the Cowboys are still seeing most of the overall action at 62 percent. The Over is seeing 61 percent of the action on the total.

Tampa Bay at Carolina

Opening line: Carolina -3 -125, 39
Current line: Carolina -3.5, 39

Bettors will be going against the Bucs all year, so it is not surprising to see that Carolina is taking 78 percent of the action on the side, mostly at -3.5. People are not expecting much scoring in this game with the Under taking an overwhelming 84 percent of the action.

Arizona at Atlanta

Opening line: Atlanta -7, 42.5
Current line: Atlanta -7, 43

Most of the sharp action and 68 percent of the total action is on Atlanta at -7. Action on the total is even with the Under seeing slightly more at 53 percent.

Miami at Minnesota

Opening line: Minnesota -6, 40
Current line: Minnesota -6 -105, 39.5

Sharps seem to think the Vikings are a bit overvalued and have been favoring Miami at +6. The public loves Brett Favre and expects him to bounce back at home. Consequently, Minnesota is taking 78 percent of the action on the side. Almost 57 percent of the action on the total is on Over 39.5.

St. Louis at Oakland

Opening line: Oakland -4.5, 37.5
Current line: Oakland -3.5, 37.5

People cannot seem to figure out which team is worse with action at exactly 50 percent on both sides. There was some early sharp money on the Rams at +4.5. Action on the total is also evenly split as well.

Seattle at Denver

Opening line: Denver -3.5, 40
Current line: Denver -3.5, 40

Possibly in reaction to its lopsided win in Week 1, the public are backing Seattle with 62 percent of the total side action on the Seahawks. Sharp money is on Over 40 and the public agrees with the Over taking 79 percent of the total action.

Houston at Washington

Opening line: Houston -3 +105, 44.5
Current line: Houston -3, 43.5

After watching Arian Foster lead the Texans to a big Week 1 win over the Colts, the public are on the Houston bandwagon with 78 percent of the side action. The sharps seem to be favoring the home dog backing Washington at +3. Around 61 percent of the action on the total is on Under, mostly at 44.

Jacksonville at San Diego

Opening line: San Diego -8, 45
Current line: San Diego -7, 45

Total action on the side is evenly split. Knowing the Chargers’ history early in the season, sharp money came in early on the Jags, mostly at +7.5 which caused the line to move. Action on the total is pretty even with the Over seeing slightly more at 52 percent.

New England at N.Y. Jets

Opening line: New England -1.5, 39
Current line: New England -3 -120, 38.5

In reaction to both the Patriots’ great performance and the Jets’ terrible performance in Week 1, sharp and public money is heavily on the Patriots side at 89 percent causing the big shift in the line. The Over is taking slightly more action at 53 percent.

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 2
By Shawn Hartlen

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (+1)

Why Ravens cover: Their defense dominated in Week 1 holding Mark Sanchez to 74 passing yards while Cincinnati's was terrible, giving up 38 points to the Patriots.

Why Bengals cover: Ravens are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings and 1-4 ATS in their last five trips to Cincinnati.

Total (40): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Miami Dolphins at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Why Dolphins cover: Their solid defense and aggressive rushing attack take control of the tempo of games and keep opposing offenses off the field.

Why Vikings cover: Brett Favre had a 120.7 passer rating in home games last year, helping the Vikings go undefeated at the Metrodome.

Total (39.5): Under is 5-1 in the Vikings' last six home games.

Chicago Bears at Dallas Cowboys (-9)

Why Bears cover: Matt Forte (201 total yards, 2 TDs last week) seems to have taken on the Marshall Faulk role in Mike Martz's offense. Their defense held the Lions to 168 yards, while forcing three turnovers and notching two sacks.

Why Cowboys cover: Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Their offensive line could get a big boost with the returns of right tackle Marc Colombo and left guard Kyle Kosier.

Total (40.5): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions (+5.5)

Why Eagles cover: They're 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings. Shaun Hill will replace the injured Matthew Stafford at quarterback for Detroit. Michael Vick looked good in place of injured Kevin Kolb.

Why Lions cover: Their new-look defense forced four fumbles against the Bears in Week 1 while Philadelphia had trouble holding on to the ball, fumbling three times vs. GB.

Total (41): With both teams using back-up quarterbacks, expect a heavy dose of the ground game.

Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons (-6.5)

Why Cardinals cover: Beanie Wells is expected to suit up after missing last week's contest.

Why Falcons cover: Matt Ryan is 13-1 straight up at home throughout his career. Arizona lost in each of its last four visits to Atlanta.

Total (43): Over is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns (-1)

Why Chiefs cover: Jake Delhomme was his usual unspectacular self last week, completing only 54 percent of his passes and throwing two interceptions. This week he has an ankle injury to contend with.

Why Browns cover: Matt Cassel has yet to prove that he is the go-to-guy at quarterback for the Chiefs. RB Jerome Harrison racked up 286 yards rushing last year vs. Kansas City.

Total (38.5): Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Buffalo Bills at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Why Bills cover: Green Bay will be without leading rusher Ryan Grant (ankle) who was lost for the season last week.

Why Packers cover: Buffalo's offense (166 yards) could not move that ball through the air or on the ground in the team’s opener against Miami. Green Bay's defense forced three fumbles and accumulated five sacks versus Philadelphia.

Total (43): The Bills struggle to score and Green bay has a good defense.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans (-5)

Why Steelers cover: Underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings. Chris Johnson could struggle against a Pittsburgh defense that has held him to under 70 yards rushing in both previous meetings, and limited Michael Turner to 42 yards last week.

Why Titans cover: The Steelers are banged up on both sides of the ball with nose tackle Casey Hampton (hamstring) and left tackle Max Starks (ankle) possibly out.

Total (37): Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Tennessee.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers

Why Buccaneers cover: Panthers QB Matt Moore suffered a concussion last week against the Giants and will have to be medically cleared before he can play Sunday. Rookie Jimmy Clausen will start if Moore can't go.

Why Panthers cover: Buccaneers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. the Panthers and 2-7 ATS in their last nine trips to Carolina.

Total : Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Carolina.

St. Louis Rams at Oakland Raiders (-3.5)

Why Rams cover: Oakland’s offensive line had trouble protecting the quarterback in the opening weekend allowing four sacks while the Raiders’ defensive line gave up 205 yards rushing.

Why Raiders cover: Sam Bradford had 55 pass attempts and three interceptions last week. That's just too much to ask from a first year quarterback, especially when you have Steven Jackson to lean on in the backfield.

Total (37.5): Bradford will have a hard time against Nnamdi Asomugha and the Raiders pass defense. Points could be at premium.

Seattle Seahawks at Denver Broncos (-3.5)

Why Seahawks cover: Denver's offensive line has struggled to protect Kyle Orton while Seattle's already charged defense will welcome linebacker Leroy Hill back from suspension.

Why Broncos cover: The Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in their last nine road games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games on grass.

Total (40): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings and 5-1 in the last six stays in Denver.

Houston Texans at Washington Redskins (+2.5)

Why Texans cover: Matt Schaub only attempted 17 passes in Week 1 because Arian Foster (231 yards rushing, 3 TDs) tore up a Colts defense that was focused on stopping the pass. The Texans will be hard to defend this season if Foster can continue to keep opposing defenses honest.

Why Redskins cover: They have won both prior meetings with Houston by a total of 16-points each time.

Total (43.5): Under is 9-1-1 in the Texans' last 11 road games and 12-4 in the Redskins' last 16 home games.

Jacksonville Jaguars at San Diego Chargers (-8)

Why Jaguars cover: San Diego's offense - without LT Marcus McNeill and WR Vincent Jackson, sputtered last week against the lowly Chiefs.

Why Chargers cover: The Jags’ offense doesn't have the big play ability to match up with San Diego if Jacksonville are forced to come from behind.

Total (45.5): Until San Diego fills the holes on its offense, don't expect big numbers like in previous years.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+1)

Why Patriots cover: They're 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings vs. the Jets and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in New York vs. Gang Green. Road team is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 meetings. New York is without defensive tackle Kris Jenkins who is gone for the season with a torn ACL.

Why Jets cover: LaDainian Tomlinson averages over 108 rush yards in five career games against New England and is expected to be a bigger part of the offense in Week 2. Darrelle Revis held Randy Moss to just 58 yards and a touchdown in two meetings last year.

Total (38): Under is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings.

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts (-5)

Why Giants cover: Indianapolis safety Bob Sanders (biceps) is injured again and their run defense is just not the same without him. Ahmad Bradshaw and Brandon Jacobs could have a field day, like Arian Foster.

Why Colts cover: New York's rookie punter Matt Dodge struggled in his debut. If he can't pin the Colts in their own zone, Peyton Manning and company could put up points in bunches.

Total (48): These teams could blow up the scoreboard, especially with family bragging rights on the line.

New Orleans Saints at San Francisco 49ers (+5)

Why Saints cover: They're 10-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings and 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in San Francisco. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

Why 49ers cover: Last year's playoff hero Garrett Hartley was shaky in the opener, missing two field goals.

Total (44): Over is 3-1-1 in the last five meetings and 6-0 in the last six games in San Francisco.

Handicapping trends favor Eagles over Lions
By: Brian Graham

It was a rough season opener for both the Eagles and Lions, who not only lost their games, but also lost their starting quarterbacks.

Eagles QB Kevin Kolb suffered a concussion on a hit from Clay Matthews Jr. and will likely be sidelined at least one game. He and LB Stewart Bradley, who also suffered a concussion, must pass an evaluation process before they are cleared to play. If Kolb doesn’t suit up Sunday, he will be replaced by Michael Vick, who filled in admirably for Kolb in Philly’s loss to Green Bay. Vick completed 16-of-24 passes for 175 yards and touchdown and added 103 rushing yards on Sunday. He should have similar success against a weak Lions defense.

The injury news is much worse for two key Eagles, whose seasons are already over. Pro Bowl FB Leonard Weaver (knee) and center Jamaal Jackson (triceps) both suffered season-ending injuries in the loss to Green Bay.

Matthew Stafford was knocked out of Detroit’s loss to Chicago due to a shoulder injury he sustained on a Julius Peppers sack. Lions coach Jim Schwartz announced that the injured right shoulder will not require surgery, but he is definitely out for Sunday. Shaun Hill (9-19, 88 yds, 0 TD, 1 INT vs. Chicago) will start under center for the Lions. Hill has had a serviceable career with a 61.2% completion rate, 23 TD and 12 INT in 20 games.

FoxSheets shows a couple of Super Situations trends siding with Philly, which is a 3.5-point favorite in this game.

Play Against - Home teams (DETROIT) - off a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses. (91-43 since 1983.) (67.9%, +43.7 units. Rating = 3*).

Play On - Favorites (PHILADELPHIA) - first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses. (55-22 since 1983.) (71.4%, +30.8 units. Rating = 3*).

Tips and Trends

Pittsburgh Steelers at Tennessee Titans

STEELERS: Pittsburgh had a huge win in Week 1, arguably the most important win of any team in the NFL. The Steelers have stated how important it was for them to start the season no worse than 2-2 SU during the suspension of QB Ben Roethlisberger. The first step has been completed, as they beat the the Falcons at home 15-9 SU as the listed underdog. RB Rashard Mendenhall had the game winning TD, as he broke a few tackles and rushed 50 YDS to the promise land. Coach Mike Tomlin is likely to feature the running game even more in Tennessee, as QB Dennis Dixon will be making a tough road start. Unfortunately for the Steelers, the Titans have bottled up the their rushing game, limiting them to 109 YDS over their past 48 rushing attempts. Pittsburgh has also found the going tough in Tennessee, winning only once in their 7 games played in Tennessee. The Steelers are on the road again next week at Tampa Bay before heading home to face the Ravens before their Week 5 bye. Pittsburgh is 2-8-1 in their past 11 games played during Week 2 of the regular season.

Steelers are 3-7 ATS last 10 road games.
Over is 4-1 last 5 road games against a team with a winning home record.

Key Injuries - NT Casey Hampton (hamstring) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 13

TITANS: (-5.5, O/U 38) Tennessee is very happy to start off 1-0 SU this year, after their horrible start to last season. Tennessee is a talented team flying under the radar a bit this year, as they are only a few years removed from being a dominant team. QB Vince Young and Offensive Player of the Year RB Chris Johnson still feel they are dominant, and they are out to prove to everyone that fact. Johnson rushed for 142 YDS last week against the Raiders, helping them ultimately win 38-13 SU. Coach Fisher is likely to have a great gameplan for the Steelers, as he's personally seen great success against the Steelers at home. Fisher will have to put the ball in Young's hands more often today, as the Steelers defense has only allowed 3 100 yard rushers since 2006. The Titans have a chance to get to 2-0 SU without having to face QB Ben Roethlisberger. The Titans really need to win this game SU because 3 of their next 4 contests are on the road. Tennessee is 3-7 ATS in their past 10 Week 2 games.

Titans are 10-2 ATS last 12 games in September.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Key Injuries - LB David Thornton (hip) is out.

Projected Score: 20 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

New York Giants at Indianapolis Colts

GIANTS: It's Manning vs. Manning, and NBS is the clear cut winner. QB Eli Manning gets a second chance at beating his brother QB Peyton Manning. The Giants lost the first Manning Bowl, 21-26 on September 10, 2006. New York is coming off a convincing 21-18 SU win over Carolina as -5.5 favorites in Week 1. The Giants were able to outgain the Panters by 131 YDS in their opener, with Manning leading the way. Manning threw for 263 YDS in Week 1, and had 3 TD passes to WR Hakeem Nicks. Nicks only had 4 catches in total in the opener, with 3 of them coming as TD's. Defensively, the Giants were dominant against Carolina as they forced 5 turnovers. They had 3 INT's alone, and will be excited to face a likely pass happy Peyton Manning offense tonight. Conerback Terrell Thomas had a dynamite game, deflecting 4 passes and catching an INT. New York is 3-0-1 in their past 4 September games overall. The Giants are also 7-1 in their past 8 games played on Fieldturf. After tonight's game in Indianapolis, the Giants have 3 of their next 4 games at home.

Giants are 23-8 ATS last 31 road games.
Over is 6-0 last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Key Injuries - WR Hakeem Nicks (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 27 (SIDE of the Day)

COLTS: (-5.5, O/U 48) For a team that is used to winning in the regular season, losing a season opener can be shocking. For Indianapolis, it's as if the sky is falling on this team. The Colts lost 24-34 SU to the Texans as the listed favorite. Indianpolis was dominated at the line of scrimmage, both offensively and defensively. The Colts offensive line is in shambles, and it showed with QB Peyton Manning being harassed constantly against Houston. Defensively, the Colts allowed the Texans to run for a franchise record 257 YDS. Making matters worse for the Colts was the injury to star safety Bob Sanders. Sanders is a physical playmaker who is the heart and soul of this Colts defense. It appears now more than ever that age has caught up to to Indianapolis. The Colts are still dangerous though with Manning at the helm, as he threw for 433 YDS despite the poor play around him in the opener. Indianapolis hasn't started off the season 0-2 SU since 1998, Manning's rookie season. The Colts are 5-1-1 in their past 7 games against a team with a winning record. Indianapolis is also 5-2 ATS in their past 7 Week 2 games.

Colts are 1-5 ATS last 6 games following a SU loss.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games overall.

Key Injuries - T Ryan Diem (neck) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24