NFL News and Notes Sunday 9/26

NFL Week 3 Handicapping Preview
By: Michael Hill

There are three double-digit favorites this weekend, and all three of them present handicappers with the same solid play. The FoxSheets make a compelling case to play AGAINST home favorites of 10.5 or more points versus division opponents off an upset loss as a favorite. That angle has proven to be successful in 42 of 56 occasions since 1983 (75%, +26.6 units. Rating = 3*). The games that meet this criteria in week three are Cleveland at Baltimore, Buffalo at New England, and Detroit at Minnesota.

Another strong angle for the upcoming weekend is a play AGAINST home teams coming off of a road loss, in the first month of the season, after closing out the previous season with two or more straight losses. This FoxSheets special has performed as follows: 92-46 since 1983 (66.7%, +41.4 units. Rating = 3*). This applies to San Diego at Seattle, Tennessee at New York Giants, Washington at St. Louis, and Philadelphia at Jacksonville. This situation is an even greater opportunity in games in which the line is +3 to –3 (42-12 since 1983.) (77.8%, +28.8 units. Rating = 4*). This further supports playing against the Giants and Jaguars.

As if the above information wasn’t enough ammo to put you onto Tennessee this week, the FoxSheets show that the Titans have performed very well against the NFC under Jeff Fisher. Fisher is 33-15 ATS (+16.5 Units) in non-conference games as the coach of Tennessee. The average score has been Tennessee 25.2, Opponent 19.8 - (Rating = 2*).

After going 5-3 both ATS and SU in week one, the success of home underdogs ATS continued in week two, with Cincinnati and the New York Jets winning their games outright as well. The five home ‘dogs in week two went 4-0-1 ATS (2-3 SU), with Washington’s crushing overtime loss to Houston the only blemish. For the season, that makes it 9-3-1 ATS and 7-6 SU. There are no less than seven such opportunities in Week 3: Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay, Cincinnati at Carolina, Washington at St. Louis, Philadelphia at Jacksonville, Indianapolis at Denver, San Diego at Seattle, and Green Bay at Chicago.

Of all this week’s home underdogs, Carolina looks to have the most evidence in its favor in the FoxSheets. Under head coach John Fox, the Panthers are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite as the coach of Carolina. The average score was Carolina 22.8, Opponent 17.3 - (Rating = 3*). On the flip side, the Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons. The average score was CINCINNATI 16.8, OPPONENT 16.8 - (Rating = 3*).

Keep an eye on a pair of games in which the line has moved to one side despite the other side taking more of the action. “Smart money” opportunities such as these have paid off on a number of occasions so far this season, including Kansas City’s outright win over San Diego in Week 1 and Pittsburgh’s upset victory over Tennessee in Week 2.

Minnesota opened as a 10-point favorite at home against Detroit. While the Lions have taken a vast majority of the early money, the line has jumped to Minnesota –11. Last season, the Vikings soundly defeated the Lions in both of their meetings, posting a 27-10 win in Minnesota and a 27-13 victory in Detroit. Similarly, Arizona has gone from a –4 to –4.5 home favorite against Oakland, despite the fact that the Raiders have attracted about 60 percent of the action thus far. If Detroit and Oakland continue to take more of the action, but the lines do not drop, the “smart money” is likely to follow Minnesota and Arizona.

NFL Week 3 Analysis

Titans (1-1) @ Giants (1-1) - After two weeks, 16 of 32 NFL teams are 1-1, eight are 0-2, eight are 2-0. First road game for Titan club that is 12-6-1 as road dog since 2006, and 20-7-1 vs NFC teams since '03. QB Young got benched in second half last week, in game where Titans turned ball over seven times after Pitt ran opening kick back for TD. Tennessee was just 2-6 vs spread last year in game following a loss (Giants were 2-5). Giants trailed both '10 games at the half; they're 12-14 as home favorite since '06. NFC East teams are already 1-5 vs spread in non-divisional games. AFC South teams are 4-2.

Bills (0-2) @ Patriots (1-1) - Underdogs are 8-1 vs spread in divisional games so far this season, but home side was underdog in seven of nine (home faves are 0-2 in divisional games). Patriots are 18-1 in last 19 series games, winning last 13 in row, but none of last four wins were by more than 13 points. Bills lost last nine visits here, with four of last five losses by 10 or less points. Pats didn't score in second half last week, have been outscored 39-14 in 2nd half of first two games- since '06, they're 9-13 as double digit favorite. Buffalo is 9-2 as road underdog in divisional games, since 2005.

Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (1-1) - Over last 10 years, Ravens are 41-18-2 as a home favorite, 10-3 last two years. Baltimore defense didn't allow TD on first 24 drives in first two games, but did allow eight FGs; Flacco is just 37-77 as a passer so far- Raven offense has seven turnovers (-6) already. Cleveland led 14-10 at half in both games so far, then didn't score in second half either game, losing by 3-2 points. Ravens covered six of last seven as double digit favorite, Browns are 5-7 in last dozen as double digit dog. Ravens won last four series games by average score of 28-10, beating Browns 24-3/16-0 last season.

Steelers (2-0) @ Buccaneers (2-0) - AFC teams were 5-1 vs NFC squads last week, are 6-2 this year. Pitt starting #4 QB Batch, with former #2 Leftwich in reserve. Bucs have six takeaways (+4) in 2-0 start; they've outscored first two opponents 13-0 in second half- they're 13-31 on 3rd down, moving chains well enough to win field position battle (+13/+9 in average starting field position). Steelers ran opening kick back for TD last week, then sat on lead, gaining 127 total yards in Nashville (only 21 passing). Bucs are 1-7 as home dog last two years. Since 2006, Steelers are 8-14 vs spread as a road favorite. Bucs are 6-2 in game before their bye the last eight years.

Bengals (1-1) @ Panthers (0-2) - Took two games for Carolina to switch to rookie QB Clausen (7-13/59 yards last week) as starter. Panthers are 15-10-1 as home dog since 2000, but 5-7 vs spread vs AFC teams since '07, 4-8-1 as dog of 3 or less points since '06. Bengals didn't score TD in last week's win vs division rival Ravens, and haven't scored first half TD yet in 2010. Carolina is 13-9 vs spread in game following its last 22 losses; Bengals are 8-12 vs spread in game after last 20 wins. Cincy is 3-6 as favorite of 3 or less points since '07, 1-5 as road favorite in non-divisional games since 2--6.

Falcons (1-1) @ Saints (2-0) - Short week for 2-0 Saints, who've run ball for only 129 yards on 49 carries in two games, and are now without Bush for 6-8 weeks (broken leg). Saints won seven of last eight in series, including last three by 4-8-3 points- average total in last five games is 53.4. Falcons lost last six games in Superdome (they beat Saints in San Antonio in '05)- they're 16-10 as road underdog since '06, but since 2000, are just 29-38-3 vs spread in the game following a loss. Since 2001, Saints are just 3-15 as home favorite in divisional games, but 12-5 vs spread in last 17 games as a single digit favorite.

49ers (0-2) @ Chiefs (2-0) - Short week, long travel for 49er squad that since 2002, is just 2-7-1 vs spread as road favorite, but is 6-1-2 vs spread in games after their last nine losses. Niners have six turnovers (-5) in two games; its not often an NFL team loses when they're +4 in turnovers, like 49ers were against Saints Monday. Chiefs are 7-11 as home dog since '07, 5-8-1 vs spread as dog of 3 or less points- they've gained just 13.8 yards/point so far, thanks to TD's on punt return/defense in first two games. 49ers lost last meeting here 41-0 in '06. Chiefs lost game before their bye in four of last five years.

Lions (0-2) @ Vikings (0-2) - Minnesota is 19-2 in last 21 series games, taking last five by average score of 26-12; Lions lost last 12 visits here, with only one of last five losses here by less than 9 points. Vikings have two TDs, turned it over five times in 21 drives; their offense was outscored by Miami defense last week. Minnesota is 6-3 in last nine games as home fave. Lions are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as double digit dog; since '06, they're 7-11-1 as road dog vs divisional opponents. Since '03, Vikings are 17-11 vs spread as home fave vs NFC North foes. Detroit lost first two games, but only by 5-3 points.

Cowboys (0-2) @ Texans (2-0) - Dallas desperate for win after 0-2 start with bye looming; Cowboys are 6-1 in pre-bye game last seven years (3-0 as fave). Houston allowed 419/403 passing yards in first two games, so no excuse for Romo not to have big day; Dallas has two TD's, FG on its five red zone trips. Pokes ran ball only 42 times out of 142 plays in first two games, but seeing as how Houston struggled with pass defense, hard to see Cowboys running ball more here. Texans scored 44 2nd-half points in two games, rallying from down 20-7 last week to nip Redskins in OT. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in games outside division. NFC East underdogs are 0-3.

Redskins (1-1) @ Rams (0-2) - Washington DC Haslett was Rams interim HC in '08. Skins are 7-3 in last ten series games, with last three decided either by 2 points or in OT; they're 4-1 in last five visits to this site. First road game for Washington team that hasn't turned ball over yet (+2). Rams are 7-14-1 as a home dog since '07; they've been dog in last 19 home games, but led first two games this year at half, before being outscored 20-10 in second half. Skins have only 107 rushing yards in two games. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside its division. NFC East teams are 1-5 vs spread outside its own division.

Eagles (1-1) @ Jaguars (1-1) - Jags won all three series games; Philly lost two visits here, 38-21/28-25. Vick gets another start after 21-34/247 performance in Eagles' 35-32 (led 35-17 with 5:00 left) win last week at Detroit. Jags are 10-5 as home dog since 2005; they've allowed seven TDs in two games, three of which were on drives less than 60 yards. Philly has 312 rushing yards in its two games (Vick ran ball 8 times for 37 yards last week). Eagles are 5-2 in last seven games as road favorite, but since 2002, 12-20 vs spread when playing AFC teams. AFC South teams are 4-2 vs spread in non-divsional games.

Colts (1-1) @ Broncos (1-1) - Indy won last four series games by average of 37-23; they're 9-3 as road favorite since '08- since '01, they're 17-7-1 as a road fave in non-divisional games. Broncos were outrushed 243-154 in first couple games, with favorite covering both. Denver is 6-3 as home dog since '02. AFC South favorites are 4-1 vs spread in non-division games. Indy won two of last three visits here, with both wins by a FG. League-wide, home dogs are 3-2 this season in non-divisional games. Colt defense allowed 377 rushing yards in first two games- they allowed 13 points in first half, 35 after halftime.

Chargers (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1) - Seattle backup QB Whitehurst was with San Diego last couple years; his knowledge could help here, vs Charger club that is is 3-6 as road fave since '08; they lost five of last six games to former division rival Seahawks, with last five in series all decided by 3 or less points. Bolts lost five of last seven visits here. Seattle is 6-3 as home underdog since '06, 8-13-1 as single digit underdog. NFC West teams are 0-4 SU outside their own weak division. AFC teams are 6-2 vs NFC this year. Seattle rush defense has only allowed 114 yards on 57 carries in its two games so far this season.

Raiders (1-1) @ Cardinals (1-1) - Gradkowski gets start at QB for Oakland as result of his rallying Raiders in second half last week; Oakland won both of its trips to Arizona, but last one was in '02. Cards have serious QB issues; they're 40-74 for 415 passing yards in two games, with seven turnovers (-2), and are 5-21 on third down conversions. Raiders have only two offensive TDs so far, but have kicked five FGs. This is home opener for Arizona squad that is 13-11 as home favorite since '05; Raiders are 3-14 vs spread in NFC games since '06. Redbirds have run ball 34 times out of 112 plays; they need better balance.

Jets (1-1) @ Dolphins (2-0) - Home opener for Miami squad that is 2-0 so far this year, allowing two TDs on foes' 23 drives, holding Edwards/Favre to 3.1/ 5.3 yards/attempt, but Fish are 5-24 as a home favorite since '03. Miami won last three series games, with home side losing four of last five. Jets won three of last four visits here- their WR Edwards is expected to play despite his DUI arrest earlier this week. First road game for Gang Green squad that is 14-8 as road dog since '06; in two games this year, Jets outscored opponents 21-3 and have outrushed opponents 252-101. Can Sanchez hit big plays on the road?

Packers (2-0) @ Bears (2-0) - Home side won four of last five Chicago-Green Bay games; Packers are 2-3 in last five visits here, with average total in those games 34.6. Bears have six takeaways in two games (+2); when Martz offense doesn't turn ball over, they score points. Chicago is only NFL team to average 9+ yards/pass attempt in both of its first two games. Bears are 14-10 as home dog since 2002, 4-1 as divisional home dog since '04; Packers are 9-3 as a road favorite since 2007. So far this season, home underdogs in divisional games are 6-1 against the spread. Bear defense allowed 56 yards in 41 rushes in first two games this season, but their offense converted just 7 of 25 on third down.

NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By Shawn Hartlen

San Francisco at Kansas City (+3)

Why 49ers cover: Kansas City has not won consecutive home games since the 2006-07 season. So far, the Niners have one of the league's best defenses while the Chiefs have one of the league's worst offenses.

Why Chiefs cover: San Francisco hasn't won in three trips to Arrowhead Stadium since 1982. The 49ers have committed six turnovers in the first two games.

Total (36.5): This total is low for two teams that have multiple weapons on offense.

Cincinnati at Carolina (+3)

Why Bengals cover: Rookie Jimmy Clausen will replace ineffective Matt Moore at quarterback for Carolina. Cincinnati is holding opposing pivots to a 67.8 quarterback rating.

Why Panthers cover: Carson Palmer's lack of arm strength has him averaging only six yards per completion. The Bengals will have to run the ball to win and Carolina is limiting opponents to three yards per carry.

Total (38.5): These teams have combined for five touchdowns in four games. Enough said.

Cleveland at Baltimore (-10.5)

Why Browns cover: Joe Flacco has been terrible to start the season committing six turnovers in two games, including five interceptions.

Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Browns are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings and 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings in Baltimore.

Total (37.5): Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.

Detroit at Minnesota (-10.5)

Why Lions cover: Brett Favre has only completed 58 percent of his passes while being picked off four times in his first two games. With Percy Harvin banged up and suffering from migraines again, Minnesota's aerial attack appears to be their biggest weakness.

Why Vikings cover: Lions are 2-6-2 ATS in their last 10 meetings and 1-3-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Minnesota.

Total (41.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Tennessee at N.Y. Giants (-3)

Why Titans cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Chris Johnson is a monster on the road averaging 98.7 rushing yards per game for his career.

Why Giants cover: Vince Young was pulled last week after struggling with turnovers for the second straight game and the Giants have a knack for pressuring the quarterback.

Total (43): This should be a clock control game with the running backs taking center stage.

Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (+1)

Why Steelers cover: The Buccaneers have struggled to run the ball so far this season. Pittsburgh has only allowed 52 yards per game on the ground and held Chris Johnson to just 34 yards last week. Tampa Bay will be without starting free safety Tanard Jackson who has been suspended for violating the league’s substance abuse policy.

Why Buccaneers cover: Pittsburgh has problems at quarterback. Dennis Dixon is out and Byron Leftwich is coming off a knee injury. Charlie Batch will get the nod Sunday.

Total (33.5): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-4.5)

Why Falcons cover: New Orleans will be without Reggie Bush, who suffered a fractured leg on Monday night. The Saints had trouble with Frank Gore Monday and will have to face Atlanta's fourth-ranked rush offense.

Why Saints cover: Drew Brees owns Atlanta. Since coming over from San Diego he has completed 74 percent of his passes without committing a turnover while going 7-1 straight up against the Falcons.

Total (49.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Buffalo at New England (-13.5)

Why Bills cover: The Patriots will be without their most targeted running back, Kevin Faulk, who is a key contributor out of the backfield and valuable blocker on passing downs.

Why Patriots cover: Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings. After only two weeks Buffalo will replace Trent Edwards at quarterback with Ryan Fitzpatrick who tallied a pitiful 69.7 passer rating last season.

Total (42.5): Under is 19-7 in the last 26 meetings and 9-2 in the last 11 meetings in New England.

Dallas at Houston (-3)

Why Cowboys cover: Matt Schaub's blindside will be exposed with left tackle Duane Brown suspended for violating the league's policy on performance enhancing substances. DeMarcus Ware could disrupt the passing attack more than usual.

Why Texans cover: Houston has two wins. One of them came via a huge rushing game from Arian Foster, the other from Schaub's 497 passing yard performance last week. The Texans are hard to defend and can beat you in multiple ways.

Total (47): This game has big numbers written all over it.

Washington at St. Louis (+3.5)

Why Redskins cover: They're 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in St. Louis. Road team is 7-2 ATS in their last nine meetings.

Why Rams cover: Washington is having trouble running the ball while the Rams' Steven Jackson has totaled 482 yards in his last three games against them.

Total (38): Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

Philadelphia at Jacksonville (+3)

Why Eagles cover: In under two games of action, Michael Vick has accounted for almost 600 yards and three touchdowns. Andy Reid will stick with him at quarterback even though Kevin Kolb has been medically cleared to play.

Why Jaguars cover: They're 12-2 straight up at home against NFC opponents under Jack Del Rio. David Garrard traditionally plays much better in Jacksonville.

Total (44.5): Both teams' defenses rank in the bottom quarter of the league.

San Diego at Seattle (+5.5)

Why Chargers cover: Matt Hasselbeck is averaging just over 200 passing yards per game and has thrown four interceptions during that span. He may not have much left in the tank.

Why Seahawks cover: Chargers are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four meetings. The underdog is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Running back Ryan Matthews has a high ankle sprain for San Diego.

Total (44): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.

Indianapolis at Denver (+6)

Why Colts cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Favorite is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Peyton Manning could pick apart a Denver secondary that could be without cornerbacks Champ Bailey (heel) and Andre Goodman (thigh).

Why Broncos cover: The addition of Tim Tebow may have sparked quarterback Kyle Orton, who is averaging over 300 yards passing per game this season with a 103.9 passer rating.

Total (48): Over is 6-0 in the last six meetings.

Oakland at Arizona (-4)

Why Raiders cover: They are 3-0 straight up all-time on the road against the Cardinals. They are third in the league averaging 154.5 rushing yards per game and Arizona is allowing the third most rushing yards in the NFL.

Why Cardinals cover: Bruce Gradkowski will quarterback the Raiders replacing Jason Campbell who is being benched. Tim Hightower has played well as the feature running back with Beanie Wells out.

Total (39.5): Derek Anderson and Gradkowski are the quarterbacks. If anyone scores, it will be on the ground.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (-1)

Why Jets cover: Jets are 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 meetings and 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Miami. Underdog is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Why Dolphins cover: Darrelle Revis is out with a hamstring injury so Brandon Marshall won't have to matchup against the shutdown cornerback. Center Nick Mangold is also questionable for New York with a shoulder injury.

Total (34.5): Both offenses have been inconsistent and both defenses are good. Looks like a low-scoring affair.

Green Bay at Chicago (+3)

Why Packers cover: They're 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Chicago.

Why Bears cover: Mike Martz has done wonders for Jay Cutler and Chicago's offense is third in the NFL because of it. They're defense has been fantastic as well, giving the team a chance to win on both sides of the ball.

Total (46): Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings and 4-1 in the last five meetings in Chicago.

NFL Action - Week 3
By Bodog

Week 3 Betting Preview

You have to keep on your toes when you bet on the NFL. Things will change from week to week, like the underdogs going 10-6 ATS after starting the season at 7-9 ATS. Things can even change from day to day, as Philadelphia Eagles supporters found on out Tuesday – much to their delight. We’ll check in on the Eagles in our Week 3 betting preview, after we make a stop at Reliant Stadium for the most important game ever between the Dallas Cowboys and Houston Texans.

Dallas at Houston

Okay, so they’ve only played one other regular season game: a 34-6 home win for the Cowboys (-13) in Week 6 of the 2006 campaign. That was Drew Bledsoe’s last start at quarterback for Dallas before Tony Romo took over, and David Carr was Houston’s QB back then. How things have changed. The 2010 Texans have one of the league’s best QBs in Matt Schaub (four TDs, two INTs) and they’re off to a 2-0 start SU and ATS. Further upstate, Romo (two TDs, two INTs) is struggling for the Cowboys behind a crumbling offensive line at 0-2 SU and ATS. Dallas also has to worry about place-kicker David Buehler and his 2-of-4 performance on field goals. The Texans are 3-point favorites (-105) at press time.

Philadelphia at Jacksonville

First, Eagles coach Andy Reid said Kevin Kolb would be the starter for Week 3 barring any concussion-related issues. Then the about-face: Reid now says Vick is the team’s new starting QB. It’s a fine short-term move, and as handicappers, we don’t have to worry (yet) about how Kolb’s development will be affected. Vick (three TDs, zero INTs) has been outstanding so far despite playing behind a thin offensive line, although the Eagles are just 1-1 and have yet to cover. The Jags are 1-1 SU and ATS and coming off a 38-18 drubbing at the hands of the San Diego Chargers (-7 at home). The NFL odds have Jacksonville getting three points (-125) in this matchup.

Indianapolis at Denver

After getting run over by Houston in Week 1, the Colts rebounded with a 38-14 pasting of the New York Giants (+4 away) on Sunday Night Football. Run defense was still a negative for the Colts, as they allowed 120 yards on 4.8 yards per carry. But that wasn’t nearly enough offense for the G-Men to counter Peyton Manning’s three TD passes, plus a strong effort from the running game – Joseph Addai and Donald Brown combining for 161 yards on 36 carries (4.5 yards a pop). Denver (1-1 SU and ATS) has one of the worst defenses in the league after two weeks. Stopping the Colts as a 6-point home dog (-115) won’t be easy. Indy has cashed in four times in a row against the Broncos, and the OVER is on a 6-0 streak.

N.Y. Jets at Miami

How many times will we see Good Mark Sanchez this year? He had four or five really good starts for New York (1-1 SU and ATS) as a rookie, and his first good start of 2010 was in Week 2 against the New England Patriots: 21-of-30, 220 yards, three TDs, zero INTs. The Jets defense is one of the best in the league, so if Sanchez is on, life is good. The Dolphins are 2-0 SU and ATS behind their young QB, Chad Henne (one TD, zero INTs), although it’s the Miami defense that deserves the most credit for those two wins. The Fish are 1.5-point favorites in their home opener.

Monday: Green Bay at Chicago

Here’s a battle between a pair of undefeated NFC North rivals – the Packers at 2-0 ATS, the Bears at 1-1 ATS. Fans in Chicago are daring to dream of a playoff run, and for good reason: Jay Cutler has five TDs and just one pick working in Mike Martz’ offense, and the defense looks much better (as expected) with Brian Urlacher and Julius Peppers on the field. Meanwhile, the Packers are rolling along as Super Bowl contenders. They’re the most efficient team in the NFL after two weeks, according to Football Outsiders, and they hold down top spot on many a handicapper’s power rankings. The Bears are in for a challenge as 3-point home dogs.

Total Talk - Week 3
By Chris David

Week 2 Recap

It took a couple weeks, but gamblers finally saw some points put up last weekend. After watching the ‘under’ go 10-4-2 in Week 1, the ‘over’ produced a 9-7 mark in Week 2. Eight teams busted the 30-point mark and Atlanta even posted a 41-point effort over Arizona. On the season, the 'under' owns a 17-13-2 (57%) ledger.

Even though we had some clubs light it up, we do have a handful of teams that haven’t shown any rhythm at all. The most surprising squad is Minnesota, who has managed to score 19 points in two weeks of play after averaging 29.4 points per game last season. While most would expect the Vikings to show up, perhaps as early as this week against Detroit, there are other teams that don’t see to have as much potential. A few that come to mind are Buffalo (8.5 PPG), St. Louis (13.5 PPG) and Carolina (12.5 PPG).

Up, Up and Away…

After two weeks we’ve seen six games with totals of 45 points or more and the ‘over/under’ has held steady at 3-3 in these instances. In Week 3, we have four contests with some healthy numbers and a few of them could have you scratching your head. Let’s take a closer look.

Atlanta at New Orleans (49.5): Four of the last five in this series has gone ‘over’ the number and we mentioned above that Atlanta put up 41 last week. However, the Saints’ offense hasn’t exactly been clicking on all cylinders, just yet. Games in domes have a tendency of seeing the scoreboard get lit up, but a couple field goals instead of touchdowns could be the difference here.

Dallas at Houston (47): The Texans have watched the ‘over’ cash in both of their first two games as the team scored 34 and 30 points behind an offense that can run or pass the ball effectively. Also, Houston’s defense isn’t great, especially against the pass, which is why we’ve witnessed two shootouts. Dallas’ attack has potential but it hasn’t show up yet, averaging 13.5 PPG in its two losses. Most would expect the Cowboys to attack a Texans’ secondary that is giving up 411 YPG through the air. Whether or not you have faith in Dallas QB Tony Romo could come down to which way you side with the total as well.

Indianapolis at Denver (48): You know Peyton Manning and the Colts should get four to six scores, whether those are touchdowns are field goals will depend how efficient the offense is running on Sunday. The Broncos have been great at moving the chains so far, but that also makes the clock run too. Indy is known to put together those seven-minute drives as well, which can be ‘over’ killers if you don’t get sixes on the scoreboard. If you look at the history between these two, it’s all about shootouts as the last six regular season encounters have gone ‘over’ the number.

Green Bay at Chicago: (See below)

Head-to-Head Under Looks?

The Patriots and Bills have watched three of the last four go ‘under’

Cleveland scored three points against Baltimore last year in two games, both went ‘under’

The Vikings and Lions have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 in the previous four encounters

Under the Lights

Gamblers playing the ‘over’ on this week’s SNF and MNF contests caught some luck in Week 2, while ‘under’ bettors watched ripped up their tickets in disgust.

Last Sunday, the Colts led the Giants 24-0 at the break, so it’s fair to say the game was on pace for the closing number of 48. The two teams exchanged touchdowns in the third but you needed 11 in the fourth to win, but the game was out of hand (38-7). With less than two minutes left and trying to run out the clock, the Colts fumbled in their own territory. Sure enough, New York connected on a 31-yard touchdown pass on the ensuing play and the final closed at 38-14, which cashed ‘over’ tickets.

One night later, the Saints led the 49ers 9-7 at the half in what looked like your typical low-scoring slugfest. Similar to the SNF affair, New Orleans and San Francisco both put up touchdowns in the third quarter. In the final 15 minutes, the Saints built a 22-14 lead on a pair of field goals, one coming after the 49ers muffed a punt deep in their territory. The 49ers didn’t go away and marched down the field to not only score a touchdown, but convert the 2-point play as well. Unfortunately, they scored too quickly as New Orleans capped off the night with a game-winning field goal and 25-22 victory. The closing number was 45 and ‘over’ players raised their arms again.

This week, the SNF battle features the Jets and Dolphins battling in Miami and the oddsmakers are expecting a divisional defensive battle. The total is hovering around 35 points and it seems fair considering how good the Dolphins’ defense (10 PPG) has played so far, plus the offense has only scored two touchdowns in two games. New York erupted for 28 points last week albeit against a New England defense that is suspect. And the Jets’ defense held the Pats to 14 points and the Ravens to 10. Despite an expected low-scoring affair, four of the last six in this series has gone ‘over’ the number including both contests last year (31-27, 30-25).

Another divisional battle takes place on MNF, when Chicago hosts Green Bay and the total (46) seems a bit high when you look at the past encounters. The last four battles have watched the ‘under’ go 4-0 and neither of the two games last season (21-14, 21-15) threatened the closing number. This number is based more on the Packers’ offense, which has looked good (27, 24) in their two games. And even though the Bears have put up 19 and 27 in their first two outings, the attack doesn’t seem as consistent as Green Bay’s juggernaut.

vegasinsider.com

Gridiron Angles - Week 3
By Vince Akins

Colts at Broncos - The Colts are 9-0 ATS (7.1 ppg) since November 09, 2008 on the road after a straight up win as a favorite. The Broncos are 9-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since October 16, 1995 within 3 of pick the week after in which they attempted at least ten more rushes than their season-to-date average. The Broncos are 0-6 ATS (-13.2 ppg) since November 27, 1994 at home after a home game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time. The Colts are 0-7 OU (-12.1 ppg) since September 24, 2006 after a game when they had more than 34 minutes of possession time.

Steelers at Buccaneers - The Steelers are 0-11-1 ATS (-10.2 ppg) since September 25, 2005 within 3 of pick after playing on the road. The Steelers are 0-7 ATS (-8.6 ppg) since November 30, 2003 the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Steelers are 7-0 ATS (14.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 on the road the week after a game in which they got a first down on less than 25% of their offensive plays. The Buccaneers are 0-9 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since December 08, 2008 when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date. The Steelers are 7-0 OU (11.1 ppg) since December 20, 2007 on the road when they suffered at least three sacks in each of the last two weeks.

Raiders at Cardinals - The Raiders are 6-0-1 ATS (7.0 ppg) since October 04, 1998 versus any team with the same record, after a straight up win. The Cardinals are 10-0 ATS (8.1 ppg) since October 02, 2005 at home when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2. The Cardinals are 6-0 ATS (8.2 ppg) since November 23, 2003 at home after a game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Raiders are 0-8 OU (-7.2 ppg) since October 19, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25.

49ers at Chiefs - The 49ers are 0-7 ATS (-15.8 ppg) since September 26, 1993 within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent is on a 2+ game winning streak. The Chiefs are 7-0 ATS (18.3 ppg) since September 18, 1994 within 3 of pick after a win when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which they were losing at the half. The Chiefs are 0-6 ATS (-11.8 ppg) since November 04, 2007 as a favorite.

Jets at Dolphins - The Jets are 7-0-1 ATS (17.1 ppg) since November 29, 1998 after a double digit win in which they did not score in the first quarter. The Jets are 7-0 ATS (11.9 ppg) since September 24, 2006 as a dog when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Dolphins are 8-0 ATS (12.6 ppg) since October 08, 2000 within 3 of pick the week after a win in which they were outgained. The Dolphins are 0-8 ATS (-9.7 ppg) since November 16, 2003 at home when their dps was negative in their last two games. The Jets are 0-7 OU (-8.4 ppg) since December 31, 2006 after a straight up win when the line was within 3 of pick'em.

Titans at Giants - The Titans are 0-7 ATS (-11.9 ppg) since October 21, 2001 on the road the week after in which they had at least 3 more penalties than their season-to-date average. The Titans are 0-6 ATS (-7.5 ppg) since December 21, 2003 on the road after a game in which they allowed at least four sacks. The Giants are 8-0 ATS (7.6 ppg) since October 19, 2008 when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is fewer than 30. The Giants are 0-6 ATS (-11.4 ppg) since October 11, 1998 as a home favorite after a road game in which they had fewer than 26 minutes of possession time. The Titans are 8-0-1 OU (9.7 ppg) since October 01, 2006 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed less than 3.75 yards per carry season-to-date.

Eagles at Jaguars - The Eagles are 6-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) since November 10, 1991 within 3 of pick on the road the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Jaguars are 7-0 ATS (7.3 ppg) since November 30, 2003 as a home dog vs a non-divisional opponent. The Eagles are 0-10-1 OU (-11.5 ppg) since October 02, 1989 within 3 of pick on the road when they have had a positive dpa in each of their last two games. The Eagles are 8-0 OU (17.8 ppg) since December 24, 2005 within 3 of pick after a straight up win on the road. The Jaguars are 7-0 OU (14.2 ppg) since November 04, 2001 within 3 of pick after a straight up loss as a TD+ dog.

Bengals at Panthers - The Bengals are 9-0-1 ATS (9.6 ppg) since November 23, 2003 within 3 of pick on the road versus any team with fewer wins. The Bengals are 0-8 ATS (-8.1 ppg) since September 13, 2009 as a favorite. The Bengals are 0-8-1 ATS (-8.0 ppg) since December 31, 2006 as a favorite when facing a team that has averaged at least 2.25 turnovers per game season-to-date. The Panthers are 6-0 ATS (17.8 ppg) since November 01, 2009 as a dog versus any team with more wins.

Bills at Patriots - The Bills are 7-0 ATS (10.6 ppg) since September 30, 2007 after a straight up loss on the road as a TD+ dog. The Bills are 7-0 ATS (8.4 ppg) since December 20, 1997 as a 7+ dog when they lost and failed to cover their last two games. The Patriots are 0-7-1 ATS (-6.8 ppg) since November 01, 1998 as a favorite the week after when the line was within 3 of pick'em in which their completion percentage was at least ten points lower than their season-to-date average. The Patriots are 0-6 OU (-5.8 ppg) since October 25, 2009 as a 7+ favorite.

Redskins at Rams - The Redskins are 0-9 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since November 20, 2005 versus any team with fewer wins, after a straight up loss. The Redskins are 6-0 ATS (13.8 ppg) since September 24, 1989 as a road favorite after they scored at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average at home. The Redskins are 0-8-1 OU (-7.4 ppg) since September 17, 2007 when facing a team with no wins after week 1. The Redskins are 0-8 OU (-6.2 ppg) since December 02, 2007 as a favorite when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak.

Browns at Ravens - The Browns are 7-0-1 ATS (10.4 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a 7+ dog when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Browns are 7-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) since December 10, 2000 as a 7+ dog the week after a game in which they punted at least eight times. The Ravens are 6-0 ATS (21.3 ppg) since September 21, 2008 as a favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Browns are 0-7 OU (-11.0 ppg) since January 02, 2005 as a dog when they lost 1-3 points last week. The Browns are 0-6-1 OU (-12.1 ppg) since November 30, 2008 versus any team with more wins, after a straight up loss at home.

Falcons at Saints - The Falcons are 0-6 ATS (-7.2 ppg) since November 12, 1995 the week after a game in which they got a first down on at least 40% of their offensive plays. The Falcons are 6-0 ATS (8.5 ppg) since November 24, 2005 on the road the week after at home in which they had at least three more minutes of possession time than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 0-7 ATS (-6.9 ppg) since October 12, 1997 as a home favorite vs a divisional opponent when they faced non-divisional opponents in each of the previous two weeks. The Saints are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since December 06, 2009 after playing as a favorite.

Chargers at Seahawks - The Chargers are 0-7 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since December 03, 2006 as a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent. The Chargers are 0-6 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since November 14, 1993 as a favorite when they are 500 after a straight up win. The Seahawks are 6-0 ATS (5.0 ppg) since October 11, 1998 as a home dog the week after a loss in which they committed at least four turnovers. The Seahawks are 0-6 ATS (-12.8 ppg) since September 23, 2007 when facing a team that has averaged at least 375 yards of offense per game season-to-date. The Seahawks are 9-0-1 OU (7.7 ppg) since November 17, 1991 as a dog when they are 500 after playing on the road.

Cowboys at Texans - The Cowboys are 6-0 ATS (12.0 ppg) since September 10, 2000 as a dog when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Texans are 0-6-1 ATS (-8.3 ppg) since October 07, 2007 as a favorite the week after a game in which they had at least 300 yards passing. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (8.4 ppg) since September 27, 2004 on the road when facing a team that has allowed at least 65% completions season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-7 OU (-16.9 ppg) since November 19, 2006 within 3 of pick versus any team with more wins. The Texans are 8-0 OU (9.5 ppg) since December 03, 2006 within 3 of pick the week after they had at least three times as many passing yards as rushing yards.

Lions at Vikings - The Lions are 9-0 ATS (7.9 ppg) since November 15, 1992 as a 7+ dog when they lost last week while suffering a turnover margin of at least +2 at home. The Lions are 0-9-2 ATS (-8.2 ppg) since September 24, 2006 when their opponent is on a 2+ game losing streak. The Vikings are 0-8 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since October 17, 1999 as a favorite after a straight up loss at home as a favorite. The Vikings are 0-6 ATS (-13.8 ppg) since November 11, 2007 when they allowed at least 100 fewer yards passing last week than their season-to-date average. The Lions are 9-0-1 OU (10.4 ppg) since November 03, 1996 as a road 7+ dog when they are facing a team that has allowed less than 10 yards per completion season-to-date.

Packers at Bears - The Packers are 9-0-1 ATS (9.9 ppg) since December 14, 2003 as a road favorite after a straight up win at home. The Packers are 7-0 ATS (11.4 ppg) since November 29, 1999 as a road favorite the week after a win in which they committed no turnovers. The Bears are 0-8 ATS (-9.6 ppg) since November 02, 2008 vs a divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent.

NY Jets at Miami Dolphins: What Bettors Need to Know
By RICKY DIMON

The undefeated Dolphins sit atop the AFC East at 2-0 and have a chance to separate themselves in the division from the preseason division favorite Jets.

Mainly thanks to phenomenal defensive performances, Miami's record is unblemished through two weeks and the team is coming off close victories over Buffalo (15-10) and Minnesota (14-10). The Jets endured a similar contest in Week 1, losing to Baltimore 10-9, before the offense got going in a 28-14 win over New England last Sunday.

LINE MOVEMENT

The line opened at a pick or Miami -1 but multiple books are offering Jets +2.5 as of Saturday afternoon. The total is moving slightly, mostly dancing between 34.5 and 36. Either way, most expect a low-scoring contest Sunday night.

INJURY REPORT

The Jets had health problems right from the start this season. Nose tackle Kris Jenkins was lost for the year in Week 1 and now star cornerback Darrelle Revis is licking his wounds. Revis tweaked his hamstring while trying to stay in stride with Randy Moss on a deep TD pass last weekend.
Revis is out for Sunday's game against Miami, so expect Antonio Cromartie to matchup against Fins star receiver Brandon Marshall. Marshall had the best day of his career with the Denver Broncos in 2008, ripping down 18 receptions for 166 yards against a San Diego secondary that included Cromartie.

Jets linebacker Calvin Pace (foot) is also out, but defensive end Jason Taylor and center Nick Manggold were upgraded from questionable to probable on Friday.

The Dolphins are in pretty good shape, although they are not without issues. Inside linebacker Channing Crowder is doubtful with a groin problem and rookie defensive end Jared Odrick will miss a second straight game due to a hairline fracture in his right leg. Offensive guard John Jerry missed his third consecutive practice on Friday because of illness and he is listed as doubtful.

PRIOR ENGAGEMENTS

The Jets won five in a row starting with a 2006 sweep of Miami, but the Dolphins ended the drought by winning the second encounter in 2008 and now they are on a three-game streak.

Miami was 2-0 last year against the Jets, even though Miami was an underdog in each game.

THE ROYAL TANNENBAUM

In addition to their injury problems, the Jets are mired in a controversy surrounding wide receiver Braylon Edwards. Recently arrested for driving under the influence, Edwards will not start Sunday night's game. It's not clear exactly if he will take the field, but the punishment is not expected to be a whole lot more than "not starting."

General manager Mike Tannenbaum says the decision will be made sometime before kickoff, it won't be announced, and it will not depend on how the game is progressing.

While some outsiders have called for a suspension, Tannenbaum pointed out that deactivating Edwards would be a violation of the labor agreement. Edwards said he would waive his rights if the team wanted to punish him further, but Tannenbaum told the New Jersey Star-Ledger, "A player cannot waive his collectively-bargained rights."

"Our reputation is important," Tannenbaum continued. "We take it seriously. We want to be known as a first-class organization."

It’s a tough call for Tannenbaum. The Jets don’t have many receiving weapons, and Edwards has five touchdown catches in just three career games against the Dolphins.

It's pretty clear that by not inflicting more punishment, the Jets also want to be a first-place organization.

IT'S ELECTRIC

The Dolphins are pumped up for primetime, a slot they were all too unfamiliar with prior to last season.

"Electric," fullback Lousaka Polite told the Miami Herald. "No other way to put it. It's electric. Two teams, everyone's watching. You can't hide from that. So you play your hardest."

"Of course, it's a different atmosphere," added defensive end Kendall Langford. "It's a great feeling, everyone's energized. The lights bring it out. It's just more exciting. I guess it kind of goes back to your high school days when you played with the lights on...Friday night lights."

The Dolphins were relegated exclusively to Sunday afternoons in 2008, but a strong season garnered them three primetime slots in 2009. They did not disappoint. Miami fell to Indianapolis--the AFC Champion--27-23, edged the Jets 31-27, and beat Carolina 27-23.

Miami may want to test the Jets through the air on Sunday due to Revis' absence, but the team dominated on the ground in last year's three night games. Tony Sporano's club ate up 45:07 of clock against the Colts, ran for 151 yards against the Jets before Brown scored the game-winner with six seconds left, and Ricky Williams ran for 119 yards and scored three times against the Panthers.

"I just think that this team has done well in some of those situations on those kinds of stages, and I think they'll be excited," Sparano told the Herald. "I don't think, I know they'll be excited."

TRENDING TOPICS

The Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six on the road and they are 5-1 ATS in their last six against teams with winning records.

The Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last nine against AFC East rivals.

The over is 6-1-1 in Miami's last eight home games.

Tips and Trends

Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans

COWBOYS: Dallas has been the league's biggest disappointment, as the trendy Super Bowl pick is 0-2 SU. The Cowboys are looking to avoid starting 0-3 SU for the first time since 2001. This season marks the 50th anniversary for the franchise, and the Super Bowl is played in Cowboys stadium. Dallas needs to focus on the task at hand, and not the talking heads. The Cowboys are only 5-11 ATS in their last 16 road games overall, so their odds are even taller heading into this contest. Dallas has been the listed favorite in each game they've played this year, so playing as the listed underdog is new to them. Despite having many high profile talents, the Cowboys offense has only scored two TD's during the regular season. QB Tony Romo has come under fire of late, as he doesn't appear to be firing on all cylinders. Nobody is more frustrated and concerned than Coach Phillips, who is rumored to be on the hot seat. The only good news for the Cowboys this year has been their defense. Despite working with short fields, the Dallas defense has only allowed 20 PPG to start the year.

Cowboys are 2-5 ATS last 7 games as a road underdog.
Under is 7-3 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - WR Dez Bryant (ribs) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

TEXANS: (-3, O/U 47) Houston very well could be playing their most important game in franchise history, as they can get to 3-0 SU for the first time in franchise history. The Texans are winning thanks to the league's best offense, averaging 32 PPG. Houston needed every bit of offense last week, as they came back from a double digit deficit to beat the Redskins. QB Matt Schaub has been simply dynamic this season, passing for more than 300 YPG, including 4 TD passes. Schaub has grown into the team leader of this team, and it certainly doesn't hurt that he has a catching target like WR Andre Johnson. Johnson nearly single-handily beat the Redskins last week, as he caught everything thrown in his direction. Defensively, Houston has a lot of work to do, as they are giving up an average of 25.5 PPG. The Texans would like nothing more than to get to 3-0 SU against their big brother today. The battle of Texas is at stake, and for the first time in this series the Texans have the better team. Houston has struggled in the past few years both SU and ATS in big opportunities such as today.

Texans are 4-0-1 ATS last 5 games on grass.
Under is 6-0 last 6 games against a team with a losing record.

Key Injuries - WR Andre Johnson (ankle) is probable.

Projected Score: 28 (SIDE of the Day)

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

JETS: New York has shown 2 completely performances this season. In their season opener, the Jets were terrible against Baltimore. Last week, the Jets dominated the Patriots 28-14 SU as the listed underdog. That win over New England was a statement game for the Jets, as they needed to silence their critics. QB Mark Sanchez showed great improvement from the opener, and will need to continue that maturation as the season progresses. Sanchez and the Jets will be playing their first road game of the season tonight. Making matters worse is the fact that the Jets are likely to be without the services of star WR Braylon Edwards. RB Ladanian Tomlinson has looked very fresh for the Jets, far better than he looked in the past few seasons in San Diego. The Jets have revenge tonight, as they lost both meetings last season to the Dolphins. Defensively, the Jets will have to maintain their sturdy defense, especially when it comes to stopping the run. New York is 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games against AFC opponents.

Jets are 10-4 ATS last 14 games as a road underdog.
Over is 8-3-1 last 12 games against the AFC.

Key Injuries - CB Darrelle Revis (hamstring) is out.

Projected Score: 13

DOLPHINS: (-1.5, O/U 35) Miami is looking to start 3-0 SU for the first time since 2002. The Dolphins have been one of the most impressive teams in the NFL, considering they won both their games both SU and ATS while on the road. The Dolphins are likely to have a huge homefield edge tonight, considering this game is the season opener and is being played under the national spotlight. Miami is winning with their defense, as they have limited each of their opponents to only 10 PTS. The Dolphins are tied with the Steelers for the best scoring defense in the NFL. Miami has been playing some aggressive defense this year, and that's led to both of their games going far under the posted total. Offensively, the Dolphins have struggled far more. Miami is ranked only 27th in the NFL in total yards. Not only is this offense struggling to move the ball, they are also fumbling the football. In their last game, both Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown fumbled the ball. QB Chad Henne hasn't thrown for many yards, but he has completed better than 60% of his passes in each game this year. Against the tough Jets defense, Henne is going to have to make plays with his arms for the Dolphins to win tonight.

Dolphins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC East.
Under is 20-8 in Dolphins last 28 games following a S.U. win.

Key Injuries - LB Channing Crowder (groin) is doubtful.

Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)