NFL Week 3 games
Titans (0-2) @ Jets (2-0)-- Tennessee is 10-3-1 vs spread as a road dog since 2006; huge test for Jet team that backed its talk last week and beat a division rival, but is just 3-7-1 as home favorite last two years. Titans are desperate to win, having lost last two games by FG each- they ran for 240 yards last week, but allowed 321-357 passing yards in first two games (6.8/9.2 ypp), and may miss departed DC Schwartz more than expected. Tennessee is 7-2-1 vs spread in last ten games as non-divisional road dog. Jets still haven't allowed a TD on defense- their opponents have run ball 33 times for total of 121 yards (3.7).
Jaguars (0-2) @ Texans (1-1)-- Home side won nine of last 12 series games, as Jags lost five of last six visits here, the last three by 20-14-13 points. Jaguars lost first two games, going 3/out eight times on 22 drives- they're 24-11 vs the spread in last 35 games as single digit underdog. Houston gave up 240 rushing yards last week, but averaged 9.2 yards/pass; they're 7-5 as home favorite the last 2+ years. Jags are 11-6-1 as road dog in divisional games since '01. Average total in last four series games, 55.6. In its brief history, Houston is 3-2 against spread when favored at home against a division rival.
Chiefs (0-2) @ Eagles (1-1)-- Kolb likely to start again with Eagles having bye next week; Vick will make Philly debut here in Wildcat sets, vs Chief defense that held Oakland to 7-24/99 passing last week, but gave up winning drive in last minute. KC lost to Raider team they outgained 409-166; they're 10-7 as a road underdog since '07. Interesting note for later in week-- Chiefs are 7-0 as a double digit dog since '02, 12-20-1 as single digit dog since '05, 6-9-1 as a road dog vs non-divisional foe. Philly covered seven of last nine as a home favorite. Home favorites are 5-7 vs spread in non-divisional games this season.
Browns (0-2) @ Ravens (2-0)-- Baltimore is 8-4 in last dozen series games, as Browns lost five of last six visits here, with all five losses by 10+ points- they are 1-5 vs spread as double digit dog since '07, 4-9 as divisional road dog since '04. Cleveland gave up 61 points in losing first two games by 14-21 points; in two games, they've been outrushed 411-143. Ravens had great win last week in San Diego; they've scored 69 points in first two games, outrushing opponents by 328-92, winning by 14-5 points, but could they be looking ahead to a game in Foxboro next week? Baltimore is 8-5 as divisional home favorite since 2003.
Giants (2-0) @ Buccaneers (0-2)-- Trap game for Giants, coming off couple of division rivalry wins, while Bucs lost first two games, giving up 34-33 points. Tampa allowed 336 yards on 59 rushes so far (5.7 ypc), bad news vs diverse Giant attack that averaged 8.3/8.7 ypa in first two games, but has struggled in red zone, kicking six FGs with no TDs in eight RZ drives. Big Blue is 11-4 as a road favorite since '05, 26-13 as single digit underdog since '05- they scored a defensive TD in both games this year. Bucs are 15-20 as single digit dog since 2004, but they are 5-1-1 vs spread as non-divisional home underdog since '00.
Redskins (1-1) @ Lions (0-2)-- Home team is 10-3 in last 13 series games, as Redskins won last three meetings vs Detroit by 7-31-8 points. Lions lost their last 19 games, are 12-27 as single digit dog since '05, 4-11-1 in last 16 games as a non-divisional home dog. Lions allowed nine TDs on 22 drives this year; foes are completing 80.6% of their passes. Underdog is 4-0-1 vs spread in last five Redskin games. Washington offense was putrid last week, with three FGs on four RZ trips, failing to score TD vs lowly Rams; they lost RG Thomas for season, but are 5-2-1 against the pointspread as road favorite since '05.
Packers (1-1) @ Rams (0-2)-- Green Bay OL is struggling; they've run ball for just 165 yards in two games, allowed 10 sacks; they've scored only one TD in second half, are on upset alert against hungry Ram club that showed defensive grit last week, holding Redskins without TD. St Louis lost its last 12 games, is 4-9 vs spread as home dog last two years, 5-18 in last 23 games as single digit dog. Green Bay is 8-5 as road favorite since '03, 12-8 in last 20 games as single digit favorite. Rams have one TD on 18 drives, completed only half its passes in losing first two games by 28-2. Average total in last five series tilts is 54.4.
49ers (2-0) @ Vikings (2-0)-- Week 3's only meeting of unbeatens; Niners lost last three visits here by 7-24-28 points (last two 40-16/35-7), but in winning first two games, 49ers held opponents to two TDs on 24 drives (11 3/outs), and allowed only 106 rushing yards, so good test here vs Peterson-led Viking attack that has 337 rushing yards in first two games, scoring seven TDs on 22 drives- they outscored foes 44-7 in second half of games, after trailing both by FG at the half. Vikings are 15-10 as single digit since '05, 14-9 as home favorite in non-divisional games. 49ers are 9-20-1 as non-divisional road underdog.
Falcons (2-0) @ Patriots (1-1)-- Belichick is 15-3 vs spread off a loss since '03 as BC alum Ryan returns to Beantown with 2-0 Falcon squad that is diverse on offense, stingy on defense, allowing three TDs on 19 drives in first two Ws. Patriots have +58 pass/run ratio so far, 14 more than any other team; they've scored only three TDs in eight red zone drives, as Welker's absence was huge in loss at Swamp last week. Patriots are 13-18-1 as home favorite since 2005, but 6-4 as non-divisional HF last two years. Falcons are 12-8 as road dog since '06, 9-4 in last thirteen games as non-divisional road underdog.
Bears (1-1) @ Seahawks (1-1)-- Hasselbeck is out (broken rib); Wallace isn't a quality backup (Seattle was shut out in second half last week, after a one-yard TD pass on first play after Hasselbeck got hurt), so Bears are favored on road after upsetting Steelers at home. Seattle is 14-9-1 vs spread off a loss since '05; they're 3-2-1 as home dog since '03. Since '06, Bears are just 1-5-1 vs spread if favored by 3 or less points- they've run ball for just 129 yards in first couple games. Seahawks have just one takeaway in splitting pair of division games. Chicago lost last four visits to Seattle, with their only win way back in 1976.
Saints (2-0) @ Bills (1-1)-- Payton's high-flying Saints scored 93 points in its first two wins, most points scored in Weeks 1-2 since 1968 Raiders scored 95. Road team won last four series games; Saints won two of last three visits here. Buffalo hasn't gone 3/out on 19 drives this year- they need to keep ball away from QB Brees, whose nine TD passes in two games are tied for most ever by NFL QB after two weeks. Bills are 7-4 as home dog since '06, 11-4 vs spread in last 15 non-divisional home games. Saints are 6-2 as road favorite since '05, they've got 11 TDs on 24 drives, converted 15 of 26 on third down (57.7%).
Dolphins (0-2) @ Chargers (1-1)-- Long trip on short work week for Miami club that had bitter home loss to Colts late Monday night. Dolphins won last seven games vs San Diego, winning last three here by 10-10-2 points. Fish are 9-5-2 as road dog since '07, 17-7-1 in last 25 games as non-divisional road dog. Bolts scored 10 or less points in five of last six series games- they're 16-10 as home favorite since '06, 13-9 as non-divisional HF since '03. Chargers didn't have TD (three FGs) in five red zone trips vs Ravens last week; they dropped back to pass 47 times, only ran it 21. Miami gave up 12.3 ypp Monday nite.
Steelers (1-1) @ Bengals (1-1)-- Pitt is 15-4 in last 19 series games, taking last five (last four by 11+ points); Steelers won last eight games here, none by less than six points- they covered 10 of last 14 as divisional road favorite, but are just 6-10 as road favorite overall since '06. Bengals have nine sacks so far, are 10-5 vs spread in last 15 games as underdog- they're 6-9 as home dog since '04. Pitt played pair of low scoring games so far (13-10/14-17) but didn't have any takeaways in rainy Chicago last week, first game without Polamalu at safety. Bengals allowed just 75-89 rushing yards in first two games, a good sign.
Broncos (2-0) @ Raiders (1-1)-- Oakland won two of last three in series, after losing previous five games; Denver won five of last six visits to Oakland, with four of five wins by 14+ points, but Shanahan had vendetta against his former boss Al Davis. These Broncos are 2-0; Nike Nolan's 3-4 defense allowed one TD on 22 drives (nine 3/outs); they've outrushed opponents 261-140. Russell has completed just 37.5% of passes so far- Raiders went 3/out on 11/21 drives they need more consistency under center. Oakland is 9-19-1 as home favorite this decade. Broncos covered two of their last nine AFC West road games.
Colts (2-0) @ Cardinals (1-1)-- Indy won first two games by 2-4 points, with Manning averaging 12.3 ypa Monday in Miami. Colt defense is giving up 4.7 ypc- their foes converted 21 of 36 on 3rd down. This is long road trip on short work week, but Colts are 7-1-1 vs spread this decade when dog of three or less points, 9-4-1 in last 14 games as road dog overall. Warner was 24-26 passing in easy win at Jacksonville last week; Cardinals are 11-9 as home fave since '05, 10-4 in last 14 games as non-divisional HF. Redbord defense faced Hill/Garrard in first two games, now takes major step up in QB competition vs Manning.
Monday, September 28
Panthers (0-2) @ Cowboys (1-1)-- Dallas won seven of last eight series games, with only loss in '03 playoffs; Cowboys scored 65 points in first two games (eight TDs/22 drives), but have zero sacks or INTs (opp 80 passes). Panthers allowed 33.8 ppg in last four regular season games; they've given up 336 yards on ground in two '09 games (4.9 ypc), seven TDs on 21 drives, with only three 3/outs, while completing just 52% of their passes. Carolina covered two of last 10 as a road dog. Dallas is 3-5 vs spread in last eight games as a home favorite, but is 13-7-1 against spread as non-divisional home favorite since 2004.
NFL Poolies' Cheat Sheet: Week 3
By SHAWN HARTLEN
Cleveland at Baltimore (-13)
Why Browns cover: They’re 5-2 ATS in their last seven against the Ravens. Joe Flacco has trouble with Cleveland. He averages only 188.5 yards passing with two TDs and two interceptions in two games.
Why Ravens cover: They’ve won four of the last six meetings. Home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 matchups. Brady Quinn (66.9 passer rating) is struggling as the Browns' starting QB. Cleveland has collapsed in the second half of both games this season. Starting running back Jamal Lewis is questionable with a hamstring injury.
Total (38.5): Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings and 5-1 in the last six meetings at Baltimore.
New York Giants at Tampa Bay (+6.5)
Why Giants cover: Have won six of last nine meetings. Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games and 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall. Bucs will be without starting safety Jermaine Phillips who has a broken thumb.
Why Buccaneers cover: New York could be without both defensive linemen Chris Canty and Justing Tuck. With 574 yards passing and four touchdowns, Byron Leftwich has been surprisingly effective for Tampa Bay.
Total (44): Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four dates in Tampa Bay.
Green Bay at St. Louis (+6.5)
Why Packers cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. St. Louis ranks near the bottom of the league in many offensive categories and has only scored seven points in two games this season.
Why Rams cover: Packers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games. Green Bay's already shaky offensive line will be without Chad Clifton who has an ankle injury. Steven Jackson has rushed for 281 yards in three games versus the Packers.
Total (41): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Kansas City at Philadelphia (-9.5)
Why Chiefs cover: Philly is banged up at all three skill positions with QB Donovan McNabb, WR DeSean Jackson and RB Brian Westbrook all battling injuries. Kevin Kolb threw three picks last week and will get the nod again with McNabb still on the shelf.
Why Eagles cover: They’re 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games and have won last two meetings. Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four games. Matt Cassel will start at QB for K.C. even though Brodie Croyle was more effective in his Week 1 start.
Total (42): Over is 4-0-1 in Eagles' last five home games.
Atlanta at New England (-4)
Why Falcons cover: Patriots are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 home games. Tony Gonzalez has been close to unstoppable this season for a highly effective Atlanta offense.
Why Patriots cover: They’ve won last two meetings. Could establish a good running game now that Atlanta will be without DT Peria Jerry who is out for the season. Tom Brady has thrown for 600 yards and six scores in two games against the Falcons.
Total (45): Over is 4-0 in Patriots' last four home games.
San Francisco at Minnesota (-7)
Why 49ers cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games. They held Adrian Peterson to only three rushing yards in their last meeting. Peterson is also dealing with a back in jury.
Why Vikings cover: Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Minny has the defense to shut down SF tailback Frank Gore. Brett Favre has become more of a game manager, exactly what the Vikings need.
Total (40): Under is 6-1 in 49ers' last seven games and 4-1 in their last five games.
Jacksonville at Houston (-3.5)
Why Jaguars cover: RB Maurice Jones-Drew has been solid against Houston with four touchdowns and a 5.4 yards per carry average in their last five meetings. Houston RB Steve Slaton has been unable to live up to last year's performance and has only 51 yards rushing and no scores.
Why Texans cover: Have won four of last six meetings. Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Houston. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson could destroy a terrible Jags' pass defense.
Total (46.5): Under is 4-0 in Jaguars' last four road games.
Washington at Detroit (+6.5)
Why Redskins cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings and have won the last three meetings. Favorite is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Matthew Stafford has been picked off five times in two games and is the league's lowest-rated passer.
Why Lions cover: Home team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Redskins have only managed 13 points so far this season and now will be without former Pro Bowl guard Randy Thomas for the season.
Total (38.5): Under is 5-0-2 in the last seven meetings.
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (-1)
Why Titans cover: They have an explosive running offense that can dictate the pace of the game. Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
Why Jets cover: Have won four of last five meetings. Mark Sanchez has looked great in his first two games and gets to face a suspect Tennessee pass defense. Titans are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
Total (37): Under is 5-1 in Titans' last six road games.
New Orleans at Buffalo (+6)
Why Saints cover: Are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five road games and 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine games overall. New Orleans has won three of last five meetings. Drew Brees has been incredible with nine touchdowns in two games and the Bills have one of the NFL's worst pass defenses.
Why Bills cover: They’re 4-1 ATS in their last five games. With both Pierre Thomas and leading rusher Mike Bell hurt, unproven Lynell Hamilton (no career carries) could get the bulk of the work in the backfield. Fred Jackson has played very well in place of the suspended Marshawn Lynch and is both the Bills' leading rusher and receiver.
Total (52): Over is 20-7-1 in Saints' last 28 games and 4-1 in Bills' last five games.
Chicago at Seattle (+1)
Why Bears cover: Seattle could be without QB Matt Hasselbeck who has a rib injury. Matt Forte could have a big day against a defense that allowed Frank Gore to run for 207 yards last week.
Why Seahawks cover: They’re 10-4-1 ATS in their last 15 home games. Running game has been very effective with Julius Jones (4.7 yards per carry) leading the way. Seattle has won three of the last five meetings. Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
Total (37): Under is 8-2 in Bears' last 10 road games and 5-1 in Seahawks' last six home games.
Denver at Oakland (+1)
Why Broncos cover: Have won six of last eight meetings. Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings. JaMarcus Russell has completed on 35 percent of his passes and sports a paltry 46.6 passer rating. Raiders will be without starting guard Robert Gallery.
Why Raiders cover: Broncos are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
Total (36): Under is 5-2 in Raiders' last seven home games.
Miami at San Diego (-6)
Why Dolphins cover: The Fish are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings in San Diego. Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Miami has won last seven meetings. Wildcat offense continues to baffle opposing defenses.
Why Chargers cover: SD is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 home games. Have dynamic passing offense with downfield threat Vincent Jackson and Darren Sproles as the check down option.
Total (44): Under is 7-0 in the last seven meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Diego.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (+4)
Why Steelers cover: They’re 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings and 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Cincinnati. Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings. Road team is 11-3-1 ATS in their last 15 meetings. Ben Roethlisberger has totaled 10 touchdowns in his last five games against Cincy.
Why Bengals cover: Cincy is 4-1 ATS in its last five games. DE Antwan Odom leads the league in sacks and could be trouble for Roethlisberger, who often holds onto the ball too long. With only 66 yards so far, Pitt tailback Willie Parker has been almost non-existent.
Total (37): Under is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Cincinnati.
Indianapolis at Arizona (-1)
Why Colts cover: They’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games and have won last three meetings. NFL leading pass defense could limit Cards' aerial attack and force them to rely on their mediocre ground game.
Why Cardinals cover: They’re 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Colts could be without defensive captain Gary Brackett who injured his leg Monday night. Indy has struggled to run the ball, averaging on 66 yards per game so far.
Total (47.5): Over is 36-15 in Cardinals' last 51 games.
Carolina at Dallas (-9)
Why Panthers cover: Underdog is 7-2-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings. Jake Delhomme bounced back after a disastrous opening game and will face a Dallas defense allowing over 300 yards passing per game. Dallas RB Marion Barber is dealing with a quad injury. Delhomme is 3-1 in Monday night starts.
Why Cowboys cover: They’ve won the last seven meetings and are averaging 32 points per game. They’re going against a Carolina team that has given up 66 points in two games. Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
Total (46.5): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Duel in the Desert
By Judd Hall
Sunday’s slate of NFL games comes to a close in the desert with the Cardinals playing host to Indianapolis in a battle of the league’s more explosive offenses on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.
Las Vegas Sports Consultants initially opened this game up last Sunday as a pick ‘em with the total coming in at 49 ½. The Colts moved out to be 1 ½-point road favorites with the same total on Monday afternoon. As of Thursday afternoon, Bodog has installed Arizona (1-1 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) as a 2 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 48. You can back Indy to win outright for a plus-125 return (risk $100 to win $125) at most betting shops.
Indianapolis (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) was able to stay perfect in this early season thanks to a 27-23 victory over the Dolphins as a three-point road favorite. Peyton Manning had a fantastic performance, completing 14 of 23 passes for 303 yards and a pair of touchdown.
What makes Manning’s numbers even more impressive is the amount of time it took him to accumulate them. Indy set an NFL record for smallest time of possession for a winning team. The Colts held the ball for just 14 minutes, 35 seconds.
Dallas Clark was the Colts’ top receiving threat with seven catches for 183 yards and a score. Clark picked up 80 of those yards and his lone touchdown on the very first offensive play of the game.
When you have an offense on the field for such a small amount of time, you’ll have a defense that is dog tired. Indianapolis’ defense succumbed to the Dolphins’ wildcat attack in giving up 239 yards on the ground.
So will the Colts’ stopping unit going to be in play for as long this week against Arizona? VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Marc Lawrence doesn’t think so. “Can't see the Colts defense on the field this Sunday for anywhere near the time they spent Monday night in Miami. Arizona's rush offense was the worst in the NFC last season and the Colts' defensive coordinators are sure to make adjustments this week.”
Lawrence is spot on with his assessment of the Cards’ running game as they ranked 32nd in the league last year with 73.6 rushing yards per game. And Arizona is averaging just 79.0 YPG in 2009.
Arizona did have a good output from its two-headed running back tandem of Tim Hightower and Beanie Wells. The duo ran for 116 yards with Hightower picking up a touchdown in the Cardinals’ 31-17 win over Jacksonville as three-point road underdogs.
While the Cardinals had a nice outing on the ground, they make their bones through the air with Kurt Warner under center. America’s favorite grocery bagger set a new record for highest completion percentage for a single game (at least 20 attempts) versus the Jaguars, connecting on 24 of his 26 attempts for 243 yards and two touchdowns. A great bounce back from the two-interception performance against San Francisco to open the season.
If there was one thing you could look for Arizona to improve upon is moving the chains. They had 22 first downs last week in Jacksonville, but only converted two of its nine third-downs. Numbers like that help you understand why they are next to last in third-down conversions at 26 percent.
Defensively, the Cards have improved over last year’s unit that helped them get to the Super Bowl. In 2008, they allowed 331.5 yards per game. Arizona has given up just 287.5 YPG in two games of service.
Arizona had a hell of a problem last season in giving up scores through the air. They gave up 36 touchdown passes in 2008. The Cardinals have only surrendered three passing TDs so far this year, which trends to a much better secondary.
Another aspect of the Cardinals’ defense is their ability to reach the quarterback. They averaged just under two sacks per game last year. Through two tilts in ’09, the Cards have pulled in eight sacks. Bertrand Berry has two sacks and Darnell Dockett has one sack this season as well.
Will the Cards be able to reach Manning for a loss of yards this weekend? He’s only been sacked twice this year and 16 times since the start of 2008. “The Colts Offensive Line does a terrific job allowing Peyton Manning plenty of time in the pocket. If he's on the field more than 15 minutes this week (and he will be) he should take advantage of a Cardinal pass defense that ranked in the bottom half of the league last season,” says Lawrence.
I’m sure one of the questions a lot of bettors will have on this game is why did the Colts go from favorites to ‘dogs. And how did the betting shops get to this number? Bodog’s Richard Gardner explains how they go to that number. “The line was set at Arizona -2.5 for a combination of factors including injuries, previous performances, the short week, and home field advantage. So while Pierre Garcon had the big catch at the end of the game, with Garcon and (Austin) Collie only combining for 2 catches for 52 yards there are still questions surrounding the effect of the injury to (Anthony) Gonzalez on the team. When you add that to the fact that the Colts allowed 239 yards rushing last week and how they go in to slumps where the run defense disappears for stretches this could be another game where Arizona can create offensive balance which is a real boon for the Cardinals.”
These two clubs aren’t the most familiar of foes with just four head-to-head meeting since 1990. Indianapolis has owned the recent battles with a 3-1 SU record. However, the Cardinals have paid off the gamblers with a 3-1 ATS mark. The ‘under’ cashed in all four games.
Since the beginning of last season, home favorites on Sunday Night Football have gone 11-4 SU, but just 7-7-1 ATS. The ‘under’ is 10-5 in those battles.
The Colts have been profitable on the road recently, as evidenced by a 7-3 SU and 6-3-1 ATS record. The ‘over’ is just 6-4 for Indy during that run.
Ken Whisenhunt has had his club ready when at home. The Cardinals are 14-5 SU and 12-7 ATS at University of Phoenix Stadium in Whisenhunt’s first two years as head coach. The ‘over’ is 14-5 as well.
vegasinsider.com
Trend Setters - Week 3
By Kevin Rogers
Heading into Week 3 of the NFL, several teams have surprised us, while others have disappointed out of the gate. There are plenty of solid trends to watch out for this week, including the crucial interconference matchup in Foxboro.
Falcons at Patriots (-4, 46) - 1:00 PM EST
New England has lived dangerously the first two weeks, as the Pats rallied past the Bills in Week 1, before losing 16-9 at the Jets last Sunday. Bill Belichick's squad is especially strong coming off a SU loss the last six seasons, going 16-3 ATS in this spot. The Pats have owned the NFC at home, winning the last 12 interconference home contests, while going 7-4-1 ATS since 2003.
The Falcons are 2-0 out of the gate, knocking off the Dolphins and Panthers at home. For as solid as New England is against the NFC, Atlanta will see that and raise the following record. The Falcons are 7-1 ATS the last eight road contests against AFC opponents, including three outright wins as underdogs.
The only blemish on the Patriots' case is their 3-11 ATS mark the last 14 as a home favorite, but that includes a 1-8 ATS record when laying at least double-digits.
Packers (-6 ½, 41) at Rams - 1:00 PM EST
Green Bay heads on the road for the first time this season, taking on the winless Rams, who play their first game at home. The Packers look to rebound off last week's 31-24 home loss to the Bengals as substantial favorites. Green Bay has been a strong play under Mike McCarthy after the Pack plays an AFC opponent, compiling a 10-2 ATS mark. The Packers are also a perfect 3-0 SU/ATS the last three seasons in their road opener.
The Rams have struggled to begin the season, as expected. St. Louis has scored just seven points in two games, but did pick up a pointspread cover as double-digit 'dogs last week in Washington. The Rams aren't profitable as a home underdog, especially the last two seasons, going 4-9 ATS. Amazingly, St. Louis has been listed as an underdog in 23 straight games, dating back to 2007, the longest active streak in the league.
Jaguars at Texans (-4, 47) - 1:00 PM EST
Houston bounced back after losing their opener, as Gary Kubiak's club outlasted Tennessee, 38-31 in Week 2. The Texans have fared well off a road victory in their short franchise history, putting together a 7-3 ATS mark the last five seasons in that role.
Jacksonville is 0-2 so far, but the Jags have lost to a pair of playoff teams from last season, the Colts and Cardinals. Jack Del Rio's team has not performed well at Reliant Stadium in his tenure, going 1-5 SU/ATS in Houston. The Jags are just 4-6 ATS the last six seasons as a road 'dog off a home loss, and 3-6 ATS the last nine road games against the AFC South.
Steelers (-4, 37) at Bengals - 4:15 PM EST
Cincinnati shocked Green Bay last week at Lambeau Field, after scoring just one touchdown the opening week against Denver. The Steelers slipped up at Chicago, losing on a late field goal to fall to 1-1. This AFC North rivalry has been owned by the Black and Gold, as Pittsburgh is 8-2 SU/ATS the last ten meetings, including seven straight wins at Cincinnati.
The Bengals are 5-9 ATS as a home 'dog of six points or less in the Marvin Lewis regime. Cincinnati has struggled against the number after they cover, going 4-9 ATS since December 2006 following an ATS win. The 'under' has hit in nine of Cincinnati's last 12 home contests, including the 12-7 loss to Denver in Week 1. In fact, nine of the 12 games finished with a combined 37 points or less.
vegasinsider.com
Top Gridiron Battles
By Bodog
It looks so easy watching it on television – just advance the ball 10 yards, and you get four downs to do it. But football teams in the pros and in college have to design increasingly complex offensive strategies to move the ball downfield against defenders that get bigger, faster, and stronger every year. It can take a game or two to work the bugs out. Not coincidentally, the over was the winning football bet in both the NFL (9-7).
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets (1:00 p.m., CBS)
The Jets are one of this year’s early and pleasant surprises at 2-0 SU and ATS under first-year head coach Rex Ryan and first-year QB Mark Sanchez (91.3 passer rating). The Titans, on the other hand, are 0-2 (1-1 ATS) after losing to Pittsburgh and Houston by a field goal. The spread for this matchup is also Jets –3 (+105) with a low, low total of 37. Without the gigantic and versatile Albert Haynesworth on the defensive line, Tennessee’s pass rush has taken a step back this year, while Sanchez is getting excellent protection from left tackle D’Brickashaw Ferguson.
New Orleans at Buffalo (4:05 p.m., FOX)
The Bills have been even more surprising than the Jets, nearly upsetting the Patriots (–13) in the season opener and beating the Buccaneers (+4) quite handily. QB Trent Edwards (104.9 passer rating) has responded nicely to the simplified playbook of new offensive co-ordinator Alex Van Pelt, although he has been sacked six times already. The Saints’ offense exploded in a pair of easy wins over the Lions (+14) and the injured Eagles (+2.5). That gives us a massive total of 52 points for Sunday’s matchup with the Bills getting six points (–105) on their own field. Buffalo is 7-3 ATS in its last 10 home games as an underdog.
Indianapolis at Arizona (8:20 p.m., NBC)
Although Peyton Manning (110.3 passer rating) has a pair of 300-yard passing games and a pair of victories under his belt, the Colts (1-1 ATS) are gaining very little on the ground and were fortunate to win both times. The Cardinals (1-1 SU and ATS) rebounded from a poor opener to beat Jacksonville (–3) in one of QB Kurt Warner’s finest games ever: 24-for-26, 243 yards, two TDs. The Cards are also getting positive results from first-round pick Beanie Wells (5.2 yards per carry). They’re 2.5-point home faves on Sunday night with a total of 48.
Week 3 NFL Betting Preview
by: Vernon Croy
The first two weeks are officially in the books and have started to tell us a few things about the teams that we cheer for. With that being said, it's only the third week and we have 14 games left for each team. What will happen towards the end of the season is still a mystery as we've seen some pretty crazy things already. So what should we expect out of the games in the third week of the season?
Tennessee vs. New York Jets (New York -2.5). This should be another tough game for the Titans. Even though they're obviously a pretty good team, they have started out 0-2 on the year. The Jets defense appears like they are for real under the tutelage of Rex Ryan. Mark Sanchez has also been great through two games, even managing to beat the Patriots already. Chris Johnson went off last week against Houston and made a lot of fantasy owners happy. Will he be able to keep it up?
Jacksonville vs. Houston (Houston -3.5). If Houston plays like it did against the Titans, the Jags really don't have a chance in this game. However, that's the reason they play the games out. Houston probably won't hit on all cylinders in the passing game like they did last week. The Jaguars had a nice contribution from Mike Sims-Walker last weekend and they hope he continues to grow into his role. It will be interesting to see if Matt Schaub can continue the blistering pace that he started last week.
Cleveland vs. Baltimore (Baltimore -13). According to the oddsmakers, this is the biggest mismatch of the week. However, just when you start to count out an underdog, thats when they start to surprise you. Therefore, the large spread should increase betting on the Cleveland side this week. If Baltimore keeps playing the way they have been, they will definitely win the game, but will they cover the huge spread?
New York Giants vs. Tamba Bay (New York -6.5). Eli Manning is definitely learning how to spread the ball around without Plaxico Burress by his side. On the other side of the ball Byron Leftwich is proving that he is still a capable player in his own right. The Bucs also have a good two-headed running attack with Derrick Ward and Cadillac Williams. Can the Bucs stop the vaunted ground game of the Giants though?
Washington vs. Detroit (Washington -6). Last week, the Redskins scared a lot of people by playing an extremely close game with the St. Louis Rams. They failed to cover then and many wonder whether they can do it this weekend. Their offense is anemic and they really don't have a quarterback. If Detroit plays like they did in the first half against the Vikings, they can surprise the Redskins.
Green Bay vs. St. Louis (Green Bay -6.5). As mentioned with the Redskins preview, the Rams battled hard with them last week. If Jackson can get it going on the ground again, this could be a closer game than people think. After a promising start against the Bears, the Packers defense took a step back against the Bengals. Can they go back in the right direction against the lowly Rams offense?
San Francisco vs. Minnesota (Minnesota -6.5). Although the Vikings sputtered in the first half against the Lions, they came on strong in the second half and put them away. If the Vikings can put it all together for a full game, they will handily whip the Niners. However, the Niners have quietly jumped out to a 2-0 record of their own. This should be a pretty good game.
Atlanta vs. New England (New England -4.5). The Patriots sputtered against the Jets last week and looked like a pretty mediocre team. They only put up 9 points which is pretty much unthinkable for the Patriots of old. On the other side, the Falcons have beat down the Dolphins and Panthers in their first two weeks. Tony G. is still doing damage to opposing defenses and they look like a legitimate offense. Expect a pretty close game in this one.
Pittsburgh vs. Cincinnati (Pittsburgh -4). The Bengals looked like a much improved team last week as they beat the Green Bay Packers. Carson Palmer looked better and Chad Ochocinco put up another good game. If they can keep improving, they will be a team to be reckoned with and might surprise the Steelers. The Steelers are coming off of a tough loss at the hands of Chicago and are looking to bounce back.
Denver vs. Oakland (Denver -1.5). This is one of the closest spreads of the week and for good reason. The Raiders are much improved over last season and the Broncos aren't really as good as their 2-0 record indicates. Will the McD era in Denver keep rolling along with another win? Or will the Raiders win back-to-back games for the first time this season?
Indianapolis vs. Arizona (Arizona -2.5). Arizona shut up a lot of the naysayers last week when they trounced the Jaguars. Many people believed that they were a fluke last year and Kurt Warner put an end to all of that talk with an amazing performance. This one should be interesting as it pits two of the best quarterbacks that have been in the league for a long time against each other. Look for a shootout in this one.
Carolina vs. Dallas (Dallas -9). Carolina has started out terribly in the first two games. They got blown out against Philly and then lost to the Falcons last week. While both of those teams are good, it's not a good sign that Carolina didn't even look competitive. Can Delhomme turn it around and stop turning the ball over? Dallas on the other hand is coming off of one of the most disappointing losses in quite some time at the hands of the Giants. If Romo can stop throwing interceptions, this could be a special team.
Chicago vs. Seattle (Chicago -1.5). The Bears look to continue on their promising win last week against the Steelers. Can they keep it going or will they be shut down by Seattle? The Seahawks might have to go with Seneca Wallace at quarterback. This isn't exactly an encouraging sign if you're a Seahawks fan. The Bears hope to get Matt Forte rolling on the ground again after two sub-par games.
New Orleans vs. Buffalo (New Orleans -6). Drew Brees has been completely out of this world the first two weeks of the season. He has tied an NFL record with 9 touchdown passes over the first two weeks of a season. They also get Pierre Thomas back at full strength this week which should help the ground game. T.O. found the endzone last week and the Bills looked a lot better. Can they keep the passing attack going against New Orleans?
Miami vs. San Diego (San Diego -5.5). This should be a pretty evenly matched game. The Dolphins controlled the clock against the Colts and still somehow managed to lose. They can run the ball and their defense is not bad. On the other side, the Chargers look to rebound after a loss to the Ravens. Will Phillip Rivers be able to bounce back?
NFL Football Predictions Week 3
By Ron Raymond
Tennessee Titans 37
New York Jets -3
Ron’s View: Here’s your classic letdown situation for the Jets, they are coming off a huge upset win over Tom Brady and the Patriots and must now face a desperate 0-2 Titans team. Jets have a great pressure defense, but the Titans offense is geared around getting the ball out quickly on either a run or a short pass.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When NEW YORK JETS team played as a pk to -3.0 Home Favorite - After a division game - Coming off a Win over AFC East opponent; The Jets are 3-7 SU and 2-7-1 ATS in this role since ’83.
Forecast: Tennessee 17 NY Jets 14
Jacksonville Jaguars 46.5
Houston -4
Ron’s View: Here’s a funny line, anytime you see a -4 you know the Sportsbooks are trying to pull a quick one on you! Why isn’t this line a field goal, why is it on -4? Houston coming off a +6.5 point road underdog win over Tennessee last week, so they could have a letdown and the Jags had 4 fumbles and 1 interception last week against the Cards. As long as the Jags don’t turn the ball over this week, they cover this spread.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When ANY NFL Team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 3 years - Playing on grass surface - Coming off 1 over - Coming off a 1 ATS win; The Home Faves (HOUSTON) are 21-5 straight up (SU) in this spot the last 3 seasons.
Forecast: Houston 24 Jacksonville 21
Kansas City Chiefs 46.5
Philadelphia -9.5
Ron’s View: The Eagles are starting to look like a QB Academy, McNabb, Kolb, Garcia, and Vick, pick a starter and go with him! However, the Eagles offense is all geared around RB Brian Westbrook and with either QB they throw in their on Sunday vs. a 0-2 Chiefs team, they should get the job done. Plus, Eagles coming off an embarrassing home lost to the Saints last week, so they will have an edge on.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: None.
Forecast: Philadelphia 31 Kansas City 21
Cleveland Browns 38.5
Baltimore -13
Ron’s View: The only thing that concerns me about this game is two factors. The Ravens are coming off a West Coast game from last week, did that affect preparation for this week. The Browns are starting Brady Quinn, will the Ravens be able to get up for a game against a bad football team. Baltimore is 11-3 SU and ATS since Week 9 of the 2008 season and are getting better each week under Flacco’s watch.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When BALTIMORE RAVENS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Last 5 years - Coming off a win on grass; The Ravens are 8-2 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: Baltimore 28 Cleveland 7
New York Giants -7
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 43.5
Ron’s View: The Bucs have one of the worst secondary in the NFL and Eli Manning could pretty much throw for over 400 yards in this game. The Giants are coming off a huge emotional win over division rival Dallas Cowboys last week, but they are use to playing well after playing Big D, they are 5-1 SU and ATS after facing the Cowboys the last 3 seasons.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When NEW YORK GIANTS team played as a Road team - With 6 day off - Last 4 years - Allowed 31 points or less AGAINST in their last game; The Giants are 16-5-0 ATS in this role the L4Y.
Forecast: NY Giants 31 Tampa Bay 14
Washington Redskins -6.5
Detroit Lions 38.5
Ron’s View: I’m not sure what is up with the Redskins this year, the players were swinging on the field vs. the Giants in Week 1, and they couldn’t score at home against the Rams. The Lions have nothing to lose anymore, they are rebuilding with Matt Stafford and the expectation level from the fans is just improved from week to week. Washington is 1-4 SU on the road since week 9 of the 2008 season and Detroit have enough weapons on offense to keep this close and win this game!
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When ANY NFL Team played as a +3.5 to +6.5 Underdog - Total is between 37 to 41 - With 6 days off - Coming off back to back SU loss - Coming off a Loss over NFC North opponent; The Underdog (DETROIT) is 17-6-0 in this situation since 1983.
Forecast: Detroit 24 Washington 19
Green Bay Packers -6.5
St.Louis Rams 41
Ron’s View: The Rams are coming off a bad 0-2 road trip, where they only scored 7 points in their last 2 games vs. the Seahawks and Redskins. However, they are coming off to their fans who are waiting for them in a sold out building and the energy level should be high for the Rams players this Sunday. The Packers will be a nasty mood after losing to the Bengals last week and they will be desperate for a win, as they are 0-5 SU in their last 5 road trips going back to last season.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When GREEN BAY PACKERS team played as Road team as a Favorite - Total is between 37 to 41 - Scored more than 20 points in back to back games; The OVER is 7-3-0 for the Packers in this spot.
Forecast: Green Bay 38 St.Louis 36
San Francisco 49ers 40
Minnesota Vikings -7
Ron’s View: Here’s a double edge sword game! You have the high flying 49ers that are confident as a football team under Mike Singletary and then you have the Vikings who are 2-0 SU and have the Green Bay Packers on deck next week. However, Brett Favre is 11-2 SU lifetime vs. the Niners and the Vikings are 6-2 SU in their last 6 home games.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS Played as an Underdog - Won Last Game by 13 Points or More; the 49ers are 2-16-1 ATS in this situation since 1983.
Forecast: Minnesota 28 San Francisco 20
Atlanta Falcons 44.5
New England Patriots -4.0
Ron’s View: The Patriots seem to be in a rebuilding phase, but they will never tell you that! The running game is missing and that’s what’s hurting the Pats right now, they’ve only rushed for an average of 78 yards per game and without the run, you can’t set up the pass. The Golden Boy comes back home, Matt Ryan played his college football at Boston College, so you know he will be looking to put on a show! However, if there’s one thing I don’t like going against, it’s future hall of famer who are in a must win situation after a bad lost to a division rival.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS team played as a -3.5 to -6.5 Favorite - Total is between 41.5 to 44 - Playing on grass surface - Coming off vs American Conference opponent; The OVER is 7-3-0 for the Patriots in this spot.
Forecast: New England 37 Atlanta 31
Chicago Bears -1
Seattle Seahawks 37
Ron’s View: If Matt Hasselbeck was starting this game, would the line still be the Bears -1? Can one player switch a bookmakers mind set on who should be the favorite or underdog? The Bears have the best QB on the field this Sunday and normally the best player on the field in a field goal or less game is my pick.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When SEATTLE SEAHAWKS team played as a pk to 3 Underdog - During the month of September - Playing on turf surface; The Seahawks are 2-8-1 ATS in this spot since ’83.
Forecast: Chicago 20 Seattle 17
New Orleans Saints -6
Buffalo Bills 51.5
Ron’s View: This could have been a great marquee matchup advertising wise, had the Bills keep their lead in Week 1 vs. the Patriots, because you could have billed this game as the 2-0 Saints vs. the 2-0 Bills. Oh well, it’s still going to be a great football game. Had the Bills been 2-0, would the line still be New Orleans -6? I don’t think so! However, Drew Brees is in a zone right now and Trent Edwards will have to find a way to keep up on Sunday should the Saints fire out of the gate early.
ATSDatabase.com Tip When BUFFALO BILLS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Underdog - With 6 day off - During Week 1 to 4; The Bills are 9-2-0 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: New Orleans 26 Buffalo 24
Miami Dolphins 44
San Diego Chargers -6
Ron’s View: This game for the Dolphins resembles a bit of their Week 1 vs. the Falcons. The Dolphins are really giving some defensive coordinators some headaches and maybe a lack of sleep, because they have to find a way to slow down the wildcat formation. If Miami is basing their offense on the wildcat, what does that tell us how they feel about their QB position? Looks like LT might be a game time decision, but I see this as a battle of the running game, edge Phins!
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When ANY NFL Team played as a Home team - Playing on grass surface - With 6 days off - During the month of September - Coming off a lost on grass - Coming off a 4-7 point loss; The UNDER is 20-8-0 for the home team (SD) in this spot.
Forecast: Miami 19 San Diego 13
Pittsburgh Steelers -4
Cincinnati Bengals 37
Ron’s View: Here’s another letdown situation for the inconsistent Bengals, they went into a tough venue last week at Lambeau Field, snuck out with a win and must now face a very tough division rival in the Steelers. Pittsburgh is one of the best coached football teams I’ve seen in years and with Big Ben losing last week, my money is on them this week.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When PITTSBURGH STEELERS team played as a 3.5 to 6.5 Road Favorite - Playing on grass surface - Scored more than 10 points in back to back games; The Steelers are 11-5-2 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: Pittsburgh 24 Cincinnati 10
Denver Broncos -1
Oakland 36
Ron’s View: Here’s a head scratcher game, you wonder if the Broncos are for real with Kyle Orton and can you believe they are ranked #1 on defense in the league. Secondly, you have the Raiders who have a great running game, but you just wonder if the old Raiders will show up at home after a road win? Denver has beaten Cinci and Cleveland, while the Raiders lost a heartbreaker to the Chargers and won on the road vs. the Chiefs. As long as the Raiders keep their penalties down, they win this football game.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When OAKLAND RAIDERS team played as Home team as a Favorite - During Week 1 to 4 - Coming off a 1 under; The Raiders are 8-2-0 ATS in this spot.
Forecast: Oakland 23 Denver 20
Indianapolis Colts 47.5
Arizona Cardinals -2.5
Ron’s View: Peyton Manning is the best QB I’ve seen play the game. I’ve seen many QB, but I can honestly say, this guy is the best rounded QB. However, he’s missing some tools on offense, I don’t see that chemistry yet on offense and the Cards are a well coached team under Wisenhunt.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When ARIZONA CARDINALS team played as Home team as a Favorite - Vs Non Division Opponent - With 6 day off - Coming off 1 ATS win; The OVER is 10-0-0 for the Cardinals in this situation.
Forecast: Arizona 34 Indianapolis 31
Carolina Panthers 46.5
Dallas Cowboys -9
Ron’s View: Tony Romo and Jake Delhomme, if you can find a prop on will there be 10 turnovers in this game, play the OVER! Can’t think of a better game where the OVER could be a nicer play. If I’m the offensive coordinator of both teams, I’m keeping my play selection in the low risk areas and concentrate on running the football. Edge Cowboys. Cover Panthers.
ATSDatabase.com Tip: When ANY NFL Team played as Road team as a Underdog - After a conference game - Coming off vs National Conference opponent - Coming off a 2 game losing streak - Coming off a Loss over NFC South opponent; The Road Dog (Carolina) are 3-18 SU straight up in this spot.
Forecast: Dallas 35 Carolina 27
Brutal-Pup
The Silver & Black will attempt to hand Josh McDaniels and his troops their first loss of the season when the AFC West rivals clash at McAfee Stadium Sunday. Raiders enter off a 13-10 victory at Kansas City but could easily be 2-0 had they not yielded a decisive touchdown in week-one to the Chargers with 18 seconds remaining. Meanwhile, Broncos opened the campaign with a lucky 12-7 win over Bengals followed by a 27-6 destruction of Cleveland in their home opener. This was a wacky series last year with Broncos laying a 41-14 beating on Raiders in Oakland week-one then Silver & Black stunned Denver 31-10 at Invesco Field during week-twelve. Pay-back at McAfee Stadium looks to be in the cards. Broncos revamped defense giving up the fewest points in the league (6.5 PPG) should have their way with Raiders offense which has struggled behind QB JaMarcus Russell completing just 35.2% in two games (19-for-54) to his crew of young receivers. On the offensive end, Broncos QB Kyle Orton with talented WR's Marshall, Royal, Stokley at his disposal should inflict damage vs Raiders 18th ranked pass defense surrendering 238.0 PYG. Consider Broncos knowing Raiders are 8-25 (10-23 ATS) at home since '05 including 2-7 ATS when small pups (+.5 to +3.0) and enter 19-86 (27-78 ATS) the past twelve years scoring 21 or less points overall, 9-38 ATS when playing in front of the home crowd.
Week 3 Betting Preview
By Lenny Del Genio
Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures and we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays.
Tennessee (37) at NY Jets (-3) – The Titans are a desperate 0-2 underdog. The Jets are flying high at 2-0, fresh off their upset of the division rival Patriots. This is actually a big revenge game for Tennessee, whose ten-game win streak to start last season was ended by New York, 31-13. That was the highest altitude the Jets were at last year. New York has covered each of the last five meetings. Jeff Fisher’s team is 9-3 SU/ATS L12 road games, however, and 8-1 ATS in the month of September. The Jets are 1-7 ATS in the month of September vs. an opponent off a SU loss as a favorite.
Jacksonville (47) at Houston (-3.5) – This is one division rival that the Texans have done well against, going 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS L7 home meetings and 11-3 ATS all-time. Including last week, Houston has gone Over in 11 of its last 13 AFC South games. Jacksonville, meanwhile, is struggling with a 2-6 ATS run in division play. The good news is that they are 4-1 SU when coming off a double-digit loss as a favorite. On a natural surface, the Jags have failed to cover 12 of their last 14 games. Houston has covered five straight when coming off a division road game. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS vs. an opponent off a SU dog win.
Kansas City (40.5) at Philadelphia (-8.5) – The oddsmakers were a bit late posting a number on this matchup as the Eagles come in looking like the walking wounded. QB McNabb is listed as doubtful with Kevin Kolb expected to make his second consecutive start. Both RB Westbrook and WR Jackson have been upgraded to probable. Mike Vick is of course eligible to return and should see action. Kansas City is just 1-13 SU its L14 games overall and was outscored by an average of 29 PPG in non-conference road games last year.
Cleveland (38.5) at Baltimore (-13.5) – This is the biggest spread on the Week 3 board and justifiably so. Cleveland has scored just ONE offensive TD since Week 11 of last year’s regular season. It’s interesting to note that in each of the last three years this rivalry has produced a season sweep. The favorite has won each of the last six meetings here in Baltimore, covering five of those games. The Ravens are also on a 5-0 SU/ATS run when favored by a touchdown or more, including Week One of this season.
NY Giants (-6) at Tampa Bay (44.5) – This is a matchup of one of the NFC’s best against one of its worst. The Bucs defense has been atrocious so far, allowing an average of 33.5 PPG and a total of 900 yards. The Giants could be looking at a 5-0 SU start with the Raiders and Chiefs on deck. They have now covered 16 of their last 19 road games and 12 of 15 conference games. The last seven meetings in this series have all gone Under. Under HC Coughlin, the Giants are 7-1 SU/ATS as road chalk of seven points or less.
Washington (-6.5) at Detroit (38.5) – It’s eighteen straight regular season losses and counting for the Lions. You won’t find a more one-sided series, historically speaking, with the Redskins winning 22 of 24 meetings dating all the way back to 1968. This is just the fourth time in four seasons that Washington will be in the role of road favorite. Taking Minnesota out of the equation, Detroit’s last eight opponents have averaged 37.9 PPG. However, Washington’s 9-7 win over St. Louis last week shows that they are probably not capable of such a performance.
Green Bay (-6) at St. Louis (41) – Our third straight road favorite. The Packers are not protecting Aaron Rodgers enough, giving up 10 sacks in the first two games. Two years ago, Green Bay won here with a similar line, 33-14. This is the Pack’s first road game, but that may not matter considering the team is 16-5 ATS away from Lambeau. All but six of those games have come in the underdog role though. The Rams look really bad. This is the 11th straight game where they will be an underdog. They have scored seven points in two games.
San Francisco (39) at Minnesota (-6.5) – This is the only meeting of 2-0 teams on the Week 3 card. The key will be the Niners’ phenomenal run defense (just 2.6 YPR, 53 YPG) vs. the incredible Vikings rushing attack (168 YPG), led by Adrian Peterson. This is the home opener for Minnesota and San Francisco has failed to cover in its last four visits here. All is not bad for the visitors, however, as the Vikings are 1-7 ATS as favorites in the month of September vs. an opponent off a SU/ATS win.
Atlanta (47) at New England (-4.5) – Could this be the year where Atlanta finally puts together back-to-back winning seasons? It has never happened in the franchise’s previous 43 years. Bad news for Falcons fans is a 0-6 ATS mark when coming off BB SU wins. This is the only 2-0 team on the card that is not favored against a non-unbeaten. It is also Atlanta’s road opener, which will be followed by the bye week. The Falcons are on an 11-5-1 ATS run in non-conference games.
Chicago (-2) at Seattle (37) – Note that Seattle opened as the favorite and Chicago is 1-5 SU/ATS its last six road games. The Bears have not won here in 25 years. Over the last three seasons, the Bears are 3-11 ATS coming off a SU win. Tough game to call.
New Orleans (-6) at Buffalo – What a start for the Saints, as they have scored 93 points the first two weeks, something the league has not seen in over 40 years. Buffalo should be 2-0 as well, but gagged badly on MNF in Week 1 vs. the Patriots. The Bills are 8-4 ATS as home dogs under HC Jauron and 15-3 ATS at home vs. the NFC. However, New Orleans is 7-1 SU/ATS as road favorites under HC Peyton and went 4-0 vs. the AFC last year.
Miami (44) at San Diego (-6) – The Dolphins are staring 0-3 right in the face, following a heartbreaking loss to the Colts on Monday Nights. The team is 0-8 ATS off a loss by six points or less, but 6-0 ATS on the road vs. conference opponents. In the last eight meetings, the Fish have won and covered seven times and every game has gone Under. San Diego gained 474 yards of total offense last week vs. the vaunted Baltimore defense.
Pittsburgh (-4.5) at Cincinnati (37) – The Bengals have really struggled at home vs. the Steelers, going just 3-13 SU/ATS! They also have back to back division road games on deck. Pittsburgh has won each of the last five meetings overall, four of those coming by double digits. The Steelers have failed to cover their last 3 games away from home.
Denver (-2) at Oakland (36.5) – The Raiders opened as the favorite, for just the fifth time in 33 games. However, the public quickly got down on the Broncos, who could, inexplicably, begin the year at 3-0. However, they are just 3-15 ATS the last three seasons in division games. Oakland managed to beat Kansas City last week despite just 168 yards of total offense and now is on a 4-0 ATS run dating back to last year, the franchise’s longest ATS win streak since the Super Bowl season of ’02.
Indianapolis (48.5) at Arizona (-3) – Ken Wisenhunt is now 8-2 ATS vs. the AFC as the HC of Arizona. Last week, Kurt Warner set a record by completing 24 of 26 passes. The team is 5-0-1 Over the last six years the week before a bye.
Carolina (47.5) at Dallas (-8.5) – It would be tough to see the Cowboys losing a 2nd straight game at owner Jerry Jones new billion dollar palace. Carolina looks awful, but the underdog has covered each of their last 12 pre-bye week games.
What bettors need to know: Indianapolis at Arizona
By SEAN MURPHY
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals (-2.5, 48.5)
Line movement
Believe it or not, the Colts actually opened as 2.5-point favorites at the Hilton in Las Vegas.
Most books opened with the Cardinals laying a single point, but the line has since been bet up to -2.5.
The total hasn’t moved much, just a half-point off of the opener of 48.
At the time of writing, it appears bettors are split down the middle in terms of the side while the money continues to pour in on the over.
Short week
The Colts are at a slight disadvantage with this being a short week off of their win over the Dolphins Monday.
Of course, that wasn’t an issue last year as they defeated the Patriots following a Monday night appearance and beat the Jaguars on a Thursday night game.
The Colts defense was on the field for 45 minutes Monday, so we’ll see if that becomes an issue Sunday night.
Cards on track
Arizona certainly didn’t look like the defending NFC Champion in its season-opening loss to San Francisco, but the Cardinals rebounded nicely in Jacksonville last Sunday.
Kurt Warner helped the Cards score 31 points as he completed 24-of-26 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns.
Nine different Cardinals caught passes in the win, with Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston combining for 17 receptions.
After calling them out a week earlier, Ken Whisenhunt pointed to his team’s offensive line as the biggest reason for their success last Sunday.
"I was happy with our offensive line," Whisenhunt told reporters, "but I think I'm going to stay mad at them. It seemed like we played a little bit better when I was angry at them last week, so I think we'll try to keep that same mentality going."
The line will once again be key against the Colts outstanding pass rush lead by Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis.
Manning mastery
Peyton Manning orchestrated another fourth quarter comeback Monday night in Miami, and he’s obviously the Cardinals’ biggest concern heading into Sunday’s matchup.
Kurt Warner gave the Colts superstar high praise earlier this week.
“Three-fourths of the battles in this business is knowing where you need to go with the football and doing it quickly enough that you can react to what a defense does,” Warner told the media. “Peyton does it as well as anybody.”
The Cardinals defense should be well-adjusted to the no-huddle after watching Warner and company run a similar offense in practice. Defensive coordinator Bill Davis feels it gives his team a distinct advantage.
“If there was a (training) camp to be in this year to prepare for Peyton, it would have been ours,” Davis said.
Trends and things
The Colts have thrived in the role of small underdogs in recent seasons, going an incredible 12-2-1 ATS the last 15 times they’ve been dogged by a field goal or less.
They’ve also been traditionally strong starters, posting a 15-7-1 ATS record in their last 23 September contests.
The Cardinals have been at their best when laying points, a solid 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Like Indianapolis, Arizona has also enjoyed recent success in September, covering in seven of their last 10 games.
NFL Week 3 Wagering Options
By Steve Makinen
Tennessee at N.Y. Jets
The Titans and Jets arent divisional foes, but they have become quite familiar with one another over the last several seasons. In fact, this Week 3 meeting between the teams will mark the fourth straight season that the teams have squared off. In that span, the Jets own a 2-1 SU & 3-0 ATS edge. In fact, the Jets have actually swept the last five meetings overall against the spread. At 0-2, Tennessee is in dangerous waters, with a difficult stretch of games upcoming. The Jets are flying high, one of nine 2-0 teams after beating the Patriots. Head coach Jeff Fishers team has gone 9-3 ATS in its last 12 road games, while the Jets Week 2 win improved their mark in early season home contests, they are still dismal 8-20 ATS as September hosts.
Keys to the Game-
Facts are facts; the Titans pass defense has been wretched, dead last in the NFL at 339 yards per game. Tennessee has first year DC Chuck Cecil and theyve blitzed hardly at all, now would be a good time to show urgency and pressure QB Mark Sanchez, if they want pull the upset and improve to 9-1 ATS in opening month. Kerry Collins will see similar blitz packages Tom Brady did last week and will have to be on target and utilize RB Chris Johnson in open areas. Look for LenDale White to see more action against the No. 6 New York run defense. The Titans are 14-3 ATS after gaining 200 or more rushing yards in last game.
The Jets offensive coaches have done exceptional work in giving Sanchez just enough to handle, without overburdening him. The run game has been effective enough and Sanchez has delivered when being asked to throw. Coach Rex Ryan has already made his impression on Flyboys, having the same smile as comedian Ron White in an I told you so manner. New Yorks front seven must lock up Johnson, since the Titans are run-first team and if successful, will send five and six players to hound Collins. New York is 6-2 ATS off a win; however is 1-7 ATS if opponent is off SU favorite loss this month.
Line - N.Y. Jets -3, 37
San Francisco at Minnesota
Minnesota is off to a fast start at 2-0, with both wins having come on the road. Thus, a fired up Metrodome crowd figure to greet the Vikings and their new signal caller on Sunday when they host San Francisco in the home opener. The franchise has split its last eight opening home games SU & ATS and has gone just 10-15 ATS under Brad Childress as hosts. Minnesota is 3-1 SU & 4-0 ATS in its last four meetings when hosting the 49ers, and overall, the home team owns an 8-2 SU & ATS mark. For the 49ers, also 2-0 after beating Seattle at home, another away contest offers a chance to extend a 4-2 ATS stretch in road games under head coach Mike Singletary. The matchup could hinge on the 49ers rush defense (53 yards per game, 2.6 yards per carry) stopping running back Adrian Peterson and the Vikings ground game (168 YPG, 5.4 YPR).
Keys to the Game-
The Vikings may be off a pair of wins; however the trademark run defense has not manifested itself to date. Its true, basing production after two tilts is panicky, nevertheless, Minnesota ranks 15th against the rush taking on lowly Cleveland and Detroit. The 49ers with Frank Gore bring more to the party and the Vikes closed last season 1-4 ATS in the dome. Brett Favre hasnt gotten in sync with his receivers yet and they are 31st in yards per pass attempt (4.8), theyll need to make better connections to loosen Niners secondary. Favre has been sacked seven times already and taken other body blows. This has to change or Minny falls to 3-11 ATS of a victory.
San Franciscos defense is rated seventh, because they have limited big plays and forced the opposing team to go the length of the field one first down at a time. This becomes even more important against Adrian Peterson. The Niners have covered last four contests as underdogs by protecting the pigskin; theyll need more of the same in Minnesota. The 49ers offensive coaches should not want to fall into trap of giving up on third down and medium or long, always hoping a receiver can make a play. The coaches have to be more aggressive and attack. San Fran is 10-2 UNDER in road games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards in two straight games.
Line - Minnesota -6.5, 38
Atlanta at New England
The 2-0 Falcons hit the road for the first time in 2009, with a difficult task at hand, facing the 1-1 Patriots. Atlanta has fared well in inter-conference games, 11-5-1 ATS over the last four seasons vs. the AFC. They also come in on a nice stretch of 7-3 SU & 9-1 ATS in pre-bye week games since 2001. The Falcons will enjoy next week off before heading to San Francisco. With this game, New England begins a stretch of three home games in the next four weeks against some of the NFLs better clubs. Dating back to 2004, the Pats are just 15-22 ATS at Foxboro. They are only 3-5 ATS hosting NFC clubs in that span. This will be the first time since 1998 that the Falcons have visited New England, and the road clubs have won the last three meetings, both SU & ATS.
Keys to the Game-
Its not business as usual for New England as many anticipated. Tom Brady might be cool under pressure, but is proving to not like angry large men around his surgically repaired left knee. His mechanics are off, getting rid of the ball a split second sooner than before and acting human. The offensive line and running backs have to start shouldering more of the load for the 26th ranked running game. That means this week containing DE John Abraham. The Patriots are 22-7 ATS off a loss and just dont look and feel right. This thought process is formulated by seeing New England is third in total defense, yet when watching them, the Bills and Jets SEEMED to make all the plays they needed when necessary.
Atlanta has been more aggressive to attempting to create pressure this season on defense and will want to keep Brady off-kilter however possible. The Falcons are 11-4 ATS as road underdogs of 3.5-10.0 points and will want to batter away at New Englands defensive front with Michael Turner. Atlanta has averaged 32 rush attempts in first two games, which would help keep the Brady Bunch off the field, but coach Mike Smith better find another back, with Turner having 50 carries already. Matt Ryan has looked super and that grin hes wearing has a lot to do with having Tony Gonzalez as tight end, which really makes the passing game work. The Birds will try to reverse 0-6 ATS trend after two or more wins over the last three seasons.
Line - New England -4.5, 47
New Orleans at Buffalo
New Orleans might be one of the NFLs elite teams and the favorite in Sundays game at Buffalo, but make no mistake, this one wont be easy. After last weeks win over Tampa Bay, Head coach Dick Jauron now owns a 15-3 ATS mark at home against non-conference teams. His Bills clubs are also 9-4 ATS in September, and 8-4 ATS as home underdogs. By all rights, Buffalo should be 2-0 headed into this one as well, having handed New England the win in the Monday night opener. The Saints are in a comfortable role however, that being road favorites. Under Sean Payton, they are 7-1 SU & ATS after last weeks win at Philly. His team was also 4-0 ATS against the AFC last season. In this series, road teams are on a 3-1 SU & ATS run, with favorites having swept the last three.
Keys to the Game -
The thesaurus sure comes in handy in describing Drew Brees and the Saints offense thus far. Brees is playing with max confidence and has more visible weapons than Iran. As long as the offensive line keeps the protection up and runners like Mike Bell are effective, New Orleans is going to make long weeks for opposing defensive coordinators. The Saints defense wont strike fear into the hearts of opposing clubs, but seven forced turnovers have limited opponents from scoring and if a team can establish identity for causing miscues, they make the opposition more careful. Buffalo head man Dick Jauron has never given the impression as coach that hits on 15 in blackjack, which benefits the Saints who are 6-0 ATS after playing their last game on the road.
The best way to negate New Orleans offense is keep them on the sidelines. The Bills are averaging 5.7 yards per carry with Fred Jackson doing the toting. Buffalo will want establish Jackson and if successful, that means the Saints have to start walking safeties up on earlier downs, creating more space for Lee Evans and Terrell Owens. The Bills are 10-3-2 ATS as non-division home dogs of three or more and will have to be creative defensively in cooling Brees. Buffalo blitzed over 60 percent of Tampa Bays drop-backs a week ago and will have to similar numbers, with greater disguise against the Saints. Bills QB Trent Edwards cant turn the ball over, and must find safety Darren Sharper on all pre-snap reads. Bills must avoid shootout, with New Orleans 13-3 OVER after one or more consecutive wins over the last three seasons.
Line - New Orleans -6, 52
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati
Pittsburgh and Cincinnati will each be playing their first divisional games of 2009 when they go head-to-head on Sunday. Both teams are 1-1 and already looking up at Baltimore the AFC North standings. For the Bengals, this game is critical, as they face a back-to-back road trip next up on the schedule and since they will be looking to thwart a trend of 3-13 SU & ATS against Pittsburgh at home. Overall, Pittsburgh has won the last five battles, including four in a row by double-digit margins. Cincy is also just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 divisional games, 1-4 SU & ATS at home. The Steelers are 9-4 ATS vs. AFC North rivals in the Mike Tomlin era, 5-1 SU & 4-2 ATS on the road. They look to rebound from the loss in Chicago, their third straight ATS setback away from home.
Keys to the Game-
It hard to call this a rivalry, as Cincinnati hasnt won at home against Pittsburgh since 2001, but no time like the present. The Bengals players to a man feel disrespected by the Steelers and want to change the score. Without Troy Polamalu, Ochocinco and Cincinnati wideouts will have a little more room over the middle. If they can get backup Tyrone Carter to bite, this leaves more space outside the hashmarks for Carson Palmer to operate. RB Cedric Benson is running like the back Chicago drafted, with 217 yards already. No back has gone over 100 yards against the Steelers in 20 games, but if Benson can pile up yardage to keep his team out of bad down and distance situations and carry for a few first downs, that will help immensely for a team that is 11-5 ATS after rushing for over 150 yards.
The Cincinnati defense has been more attacking and for whatever reason, the first two Bengals opponents have only averaged 19 carries a game in spite of being close contests. Pittsburgh has to get running game untracked and Cincy is pedestrian 4.3 YPC allowed, thus serve up Willie Parker and Rashard Mendenhall. The O-Line has to block DE Antwan Odom, who has a season full of sacks (7) for most defensive linemen in two games. The Steelers D has created pressure, just not sacks. They need to put the immobile Palmer on the ground to improve to 22-8-2 ATS as division road team.
Line - Pittsburgh -4, 37
Tips and Trends
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals
Steelers (-3.5, O/U 37): The Steelers have owned the Bengals in Cincinnati beating them the past eight times at Paul Brown Stadium with the average victory margin being 14 points. The Steelers have won and covered nine of their last 11 overall contests versus Cincinnati, including the past five. Pittsburgh has held Cincinnati to 10 points in each of the past three meetings. The defending world champions have won 12 of their last 13 AFC North Division games, covering nine of the 13. The Steelers, though, are averaging just 70.5 yards rushing per game and Ben Roethlisberger has been sacked six times already while being picked off three times. Roethlisberger is 11-0 playing in his native state of Ohio. Star safety Troy Polamalu is out with a knee injury. Tyrone Carter, Polamalu’s replacement, has a thigh injury and is questionable. Pittsburgh has failed to cover in its last five September games.
The Over has cashed in 13 of Pittsburgh’s past 18 games versus AFC teams.
The Steelers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games at Cincinnati.
Key Injuries Safety Troy Polamalu (knee) is out.
PROJECTED SCORE: 20
Bengals: The Bengals appear much improved with a healthy Carson Palmer and a talented defense featuring seven starters who were drafted in the first two rounds. The Bengals are leading the NFL in sacks. Antwan Odom had five sacks against the Packers last Sunday. The Bengals also are running the ball well behind former Bears castoff Cedric Benson ranking 12th averaging 118.5 yards on the ground. The Bengals upset Green Bay as a nine-point road underdog last week and would be 2-0 if it weren’t for a miracle tipped pass that resulted in a long Denver touchdown in the final seconds opening week. The problem for the Bengals is getting over the mental hurdle of beating Pittsburgh, a team they lost to twice last season by a combined 45 points. The Bengals must prove they can put together back-to-back good games. They are 4-10 against the spread following a cover.
Cincinnati has covered only 1 of its last six AFC North games.
The Bengals are 7-1 Under following an against the spread win.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Chris Henry (quadriceps) is probable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 17 (Side of the Day)
Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals
Colts: Oddsmakers opened Indianapolis the favorite, but there has been huge line movement to the Cardinals. The Cardinals have won 11 of their last 14 home games under Ken Whisenhunt. Arizona has a bye the following week, while Indianapolis has to travel to the West Coast after edging Miami on Monday night in South Florida. The Colts, though, are 12-2-1 against the spread as an underdog of one-to-three points. Peyton Manning has several new wide receivers after losing Anthony Gonzalez to a knee injury. He found one of them, Pierre Garcon, for the winning touchdown on Monday. The undefeated Colts have won their two games by a combined six points. They are having trouble running the ball for the second year in a row ranking 29th in rushing. They do rank third in passing yards behind Manning. The Cardinals figure to give the Colts’ secondary their stiffest challenge.
The Under has cashed 7 of the past nine times the Colts have been an underdog.
Indianapolis is 15-7-1 ATS in September.
Key Injuries - Safety Bob Sanders (knee) is out.
Wide receiver Anthony Gonzalez (knee) is out.
Linebacker Gary Brackett (knee) is doubtful.
Linebacker Clint Session (ankle) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 23
Cardinals (-3, O/U 48): The total is high as this could turn out to be a shootout between Kurt Warner and Peyton Manning. Neither team runs the ball well. After a bad first week in a loss to San Francisco, the 38-year-old Warner rebounded strong last Sunday leading Arizona to a 31-17 road win against Jacksonville. Warner set an NFL record for accuracy by completing 24-of-26 passes for 243 yards and two touchdowns. The Cardinals have lost seven of their last 11 games outside their NFC West Division. However, Arizona has covered four consecutive home contests versus AFC foes by margins of 22 ½, 14 1/2, 5 and 13 points. The Cardinals also have covered during nine of the past 12 times they’ve been a favorite. They are 7-3 against the spread in their last 10 September contests. They are 6-1 against the number in their last seven overall games.
The Over has cashed in 19 of Arizona’s last 26 home games.
The Over has cashed in 8 of Arizona’s last 10 games when the Cardinals were favored.
Key Injuries - Wide receiver Steve Breaston (knee) is questionable.
PROJECTED SCORE: 26 (OVER - Total of the Day)