NFL News and Notes Sunday, October 11,2009

Total Talk - Week 5
By Chris David

Week 4 Recap

The scoreboard operator had his work cutout last weekend as the ‘over’ posted a solid 9-5 (64%) mark on the 14-game card. The two nationally televised games on Sunday and Monday both went ‘over’ as well. After five weeks, the ‘over’ owns a 33-29 (53%). Once again, four teams (Chicago, Green Bay, New Orleans, San Diego) are on bye in Week 5.

Nice to see you again!

Looking at the entire slate, gamblers might have a hard time deciphering this week since the familiarity factor is all but tossed out. Of the 14 games, only three feature divisional opponents knocking heads. Five of the remaining contests are non-conference games, which makes the past history even tougher to handicap. Let’s take a closer look at the three divisional games.

Cincinnati at Baltimore: The Ravens are no longer a defensive club folks, rather an offensive machine. They’re averaging 31 PPG and Joe Flacco is the real deal. The jury is still out on Cincinnati, whose offense has been inconsistent. Both teams have seen the ‘over’ go 3-1. Gamblers might want to pass on this matchup, considering the total has been split the last four seasons. If the ‘over’ hits Sunday, then come back with the ‘under’ in the second meeting on Nov. 8 from Cincinnati.

Indianapolis at Tennessee: Seven of the last eight meetings in this series have gone ‘under’ the number. Still, the books have put out an eye opening number of 46 points. The Titans’ defense (27 PPG, 362 YPG) isn’t on the same level as last year and injuries are piling up. Indy’s offense (26.5 PPG, 414 YPG) is the most efficient in the league, but it’s not a quick strike attack. With a total (45.5) this high, you better hope the Colts get touchdowns instead of field goals.

N.Y. Jets at Miami: The total on this game is hovering around 36 points, which is the lowest number on the board in Week 5. The Dolphins like to run the football and the Jets have proven that they can stop the run. Both teams feature young quarterbacks in Henne and Sanchez, plus neither team has serious playmakers on the outside. The Dolphins have seen the ‘over’ go 2-0 at home, but the Jets have watched the ‘under’ go 3-1 on the year. The last eight totals in this series have gone 4-4.

Bye Bye Points

In last week’s Total Talk column, we pointed out a road total system on the N.Y. Giants and it cashed, barely. This week, we’re staying in the NFC East and leaning on a golden trend for head coach Andy Reid and the Philadelphia Eagles.

Since Reid began his tenure in Philadelphia, the burly coach has had a knack of preparing his team, especially with a two-week window. His record against the spread off a bye is a phenomenal 12-3 (80%). We’re not going to push you to lay the double digits with the Eagles (-15) over Tampa Bay this Sunday, rather point you towards the total.

In the same span that Reid has compiled the sick ATS record, he’s also seen a string of ‘under’ tickets cash. A ledger of 14-1 (93%) to be exact, which makes you wonder if it’s time to bust the trend?

Looking at this week’s matchup further, I can’t find a reason to lean up unless you want to tell me the Eagles are 3-0 to the ‘over’ this year. I watched the Buccaneers lose to the Redskins 16-13 last Sunday and the offense was disgusting. The QB Josh Johnson doesn’t know what he’s doing, yet he still had a shot to win the game, which shows you had bad Washington is. Why Tampa Bay settled for three late in the game instead of taking a shot also showed me the ineptness of new head coach Raheem Morris. The offense was lucky to get 13, the kicking game was inconsistent (2-of-4) and the third-down conversions (2-of-13) was downright embarrassing.

This total (42) seems a little high on paper plus the Eagles’ Donovan McNabb hasn’t had much success against the Bucs (0-4) or their secondary, in particular Ronde Barber. Both are older players, but Barber has a young stud, Aqib Talib, on the other side that could be just as good as him. Philadelphia will get its points but with a rusty McNabb and two weeks to focus on defense, this game has all the makings of a 27-10 whitewashing.

The Afternoon Unders

This trend continues to gain steam and it’s probably helping the sportsbooks offset some of the public action on the sides after four weeks. The 4:00 ET NFL matchups are often bail-out games for gamblers and those playing the ‘over’ have been burned often. The ‘under’ has rolled to an 11-5 (69%) mark, which includes last Sunday’s 3-1 effort. The Dolphins’ 38-10 win over the Bills was the only contest that went ‘over’ in Week 4’s late games. Will this be the week that the trend reverses back and the public actually hits some chase bets in the afternoon?

Atlanta at San Francisco (41): The Falcons come in with a week of rest and head coach Mike Smith hopes the time off will help the defense (381 YPG), which is the third worst in the league. Fortunately for Atlanta, the 49ers don’t have a juggernaut of an offense (264 YPG) and running back Frank Gore is expected to miss again. San Francisco’s defense (13.3 PPG, 284 YPG) is one of the best in the league and it’s only given up 10 points at home in two games.

New England at Denver (41): Is the Denver defense for real? The unit is ranked first in points (6.5 PPG) and second in yards (239 YPG) and last week’s win against Dallas (17-10) proved that they can match up with a balanced attack. The Patriots have scored 25 points in three or their four games, all wins too and at home. But they did get held to nine points in a loss to the Jets, another opponent with a top-notch defense and on the road. The Broncos have seen the ‘under’ go 4-0 this year, while the Pats have watched the total go 2-2.

Houston at Arizona (50): The biggest total of the week is in the desert this week and it appears that the public believes Arizona will break out against Houston. The Cardinals haven’t won at home (0-2) this year and they’ve only scored a combined 26 points, something they did in halves last year. Houston doesn’t have a great defense (23 PPG, 368 YPG) by any stretch and the numbers are a lot worse if you take out the stats from last week’s 29-6 victory over Oakland. In 2008, Arizona saw the ‘over’ go 9-1 in its 10 home games but the ‘under’ has started 2-0 this year. Will the pendulum swing back?

Seattle at Jacksonville (NA): The status of Seattle QB Matt Hasselbeck is ‘questionable’ and the bookmakers have realized that backup Senecca Wallace isn’t that capable despite tossing in some garbage scores last week. The Jaguars have scored 68 points in the last two weeks and is on a 3-1 ‘over’ run. After posting a shutout (28-0) shutout against the Rams in Week 1, the Seahawks’ defense has surrendered 23, 25 and 34 points in the last three games, all losses too.

Fearless Predictions

We’re not going to stick the chest out since we all know you’re only as good as next bet but we pulled off the sweep in Week 4 due to some luck. On the year, the totals now stand at 4-2 (+180) and the teasers now stand at 1-2 (-100). Based on one-unit plays, we’re in the BLACK for $80. Let’s try to keep it rolling. As always, press, pass or fade. Good Luck!

Best Over: Steelers-Lions (44)

One thing we’ve learned after four weeks is that Detroit is suspect to the pass and Pittsburgh’s passing attack (299 YPG) is the third best in the league. Big Ben and the Steelers should have their way against a unit that is giving up a league-worst 72.5 completion percentage. That’s an outrageous number folks, especially compared to the majority teams that are at 62% or less. Provided it’s not a blowout, the Steelers should put up a combination of six scores for this matchup. We know Stafford is out for Detroit, but that’s probably better since Culpepper likes to take more shots deep. They don't see each other often but the last five meetings between Pittsburgh and Detroit has gone 'over' the number.

Best Under: Buccaneers-Eagles (43)

If you couldn't tell above, I really have no respect for Tampa or its head coach and while the QB might be able to make some plays with his feet, we expect more mistakes. Hopefully, they don't result in easy defensive touchdowns. If you can get down, I would strongly suggest a team total ‘under’ on the Bucs as well, especially if its 14 ½.

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)

Over 35 Steelers-Lions
Under 52 Buccaneers-Eagles
Over 40.5 Texans-Cardinals

vegasinsider.com

NFL Cheat Sheet: Week 5 Betting Notes
By SHAWN HARTLEN

Cincinnati at Baltimore (-9)

Why Bengals cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games. Have won six of last nine meetings. The Bengals have been in every game this season and Carson Palmer has been clutch in the fourth quarter.

Why Ravens cover: Favorite is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Bengals are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings in Baltimore. Bengals leading rusher Cedric Benson is dealing with a hip injury.

Total (42): Under is 4-1 in Ravens' last five home games.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-6)

Why Browns cover: Have won last two meetings. Derek Anderson played well last week and is happy that Braylon Edwards and his distractions were traded to the Jets. Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games. Buffalo's offensive line is hurting, Trent Edwards has been sacked 10 times in his last two games.

Why Bills cover: Browns are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games. Marshawn Lynch has run for 201 yards and a 4.6 average in two games against Cleveland.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 3-0-1 in Browns' last four road games and 4-1 in Bills' last five home games.

Washington at Carolina (-3.5)

Why Redskins cover: Are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings. Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings. Jake Delhomme has the NFC's worst passer rating. Clinton Portis could have a big day against a Carolina defense allowing over 187 yards rushing per game.

Why Panthers cover: Redskins are 1-8-3 ATS in their last 12 games. Brought in veteran DT Hollis Thomas to help struggling defense.

Total (37 1/2): Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.

Pittsburgh at Detroit (+10.5)

Why Steelers cover: Have won six of past seven meetings. Lions are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 home games and could be without Matthew Stafford who has a knee injury. Rashard Mendenhall is coming off his best game as a pro and will get to test Detroit's 20th-ranked rush defense.

Why Lions cover: Steelers are 0-4 ATS in their last four road games and 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall. Held Ben Roethlisberger to 135 yards passing in their last meeting, intercepting him twice.

Total (44): Under is 4-0 in Lions' last four home games.

Dallas at Kansas City (+9)

Why Cowboys cover: Have won three of last four meetings. Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and 0-6 ATS in their last six games overall. K.C. Has the NFL's 28th-ranked pass defense. Larry Johnson has been unable to regain his All-Pro form and is averaging only 2.6 yards per carry.

Why Chiefs cover: Tony Romo has been under fire all season and is coming off back-to-back games without throwing a touchdown. Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games. Matt Cassel has settled in over the past two games, throwing four TDs with no interceptions. Dallas could be without top receiver Roy Williams who has a rib injury.

Total (43): Over is 6-2-1 in Chiefs' last nine home games.

Oakland at N.Y. Giants (-16)

Why Raiders cover: Have won four of past five meetings. Eli Manning is dealing with a heel injury and might not play. David Carr would start in his place. Ahmad Bradshaw and Starting tight end Kevin Boss are also hampered by injuries and might not play.

Why Giants cover: Are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight home games. JaMarcus Russell (42.4 rating) has been nothing short of terrible and will be tested against the Giants' top-rated pass defense. Team will be pumped up to play first home game since Week 1.

Total (39): Under is 4-1-1 in Raiders' last six road games.

Tampa Bay at Philadelphia (-14.5)

Why Buccaneers cover: Have won last three meetings. Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings. Have held Donovan McNabb in check in their past five meetings. He has averaged only 120 yards passing per game and has been picked off five times.

Why Eagles cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games. Bucs QB Josh Johnson was skittish in his first NFL start, looking to run instead of pass when under pressure. Will get both Brain Westbrook and McNabb back from injuries.

Total (43): Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.

Minnesota at St. Louis (+9.5)

Why Vikings cover: Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings. Minnesota's has the NFC's fifth ranked defense and should have no problem shutting down a Rams offense that has been terrible, averaging only six points per game.

Why Rams cover: Have won four of past five meetings. Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings. Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings and 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings in St. Louis. Brett Favre is battling a foot injury. Could find Minnesota in a letdown position after coming off a last-second win versus the 49ers and then an emotional victory over Green Bay.

Total (40 1/2): Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in St. Louis.

Atlanta at San Francisco (-2.5)

Why Falcons cover: Will be well rested and prepared after coming off a bye week. San Fran will be without Frank Gore again. Glen Coffee has struggled in place of Gore averaging only 2.6 yards per carry. Will get Jerious Norwood back from his concussion.

Why 49ers cover: Have won three of past five meetings. Fourth-ranked rush defense could stuff Michael Turner who has had a hard time repeating last year 's breakout performance. Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco. Shaun Hill (7-0) is undefeated as a starter at home.

Total (40 1/2): Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings and 4-0 in the last four meetings in San Francisco.

Houston at Arizona (-5.5)

Why Texans cover: Are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall. Arizona has one of the worst rushing attacks in the NFL, averaging only 60.7 yards per game.

Why Cardinals cover: Are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games. Sixth ranked rush defense could pose problems for Steve Slaton who has had a sluggish start to the season. Mario Williams is dealing with a shoulder injury and it would be a huge blow to the Texans' pass rush if he can't play.

Total (49): Over is 8-3 in Texans' last 11 road games and 12-3 in Cardinals' last 15 home games.

New England at Denver (+3)

Why Patriots cover: Are 36-16-1 ATS in their last 53 road games. Tom Brady has thrown for 1302 yards and eight touchdowns in his last five games against Denver. Broncos will be without leading rusher Correll Buckhalter who has an ankle injury.

Why Broncos cover: Have won five of past seven meetings. Are 4-0 ATS in their last four games. Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings. After last week's heroics, Brandon Marshall has reportedly been beaming in the locker room and is ready to put the past behind him. Defense has been amazing this season, allowing only 6.5 yards per game.

Total (41): Over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings and 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Denver.

Jacksonville at Seattle (+3)

Why Jaguars cover: Seahawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games. Mike Sims-Walker has become a big threat in the passing game and has 278 yards and three TDs in the Jags' last three games. Since shutting out St. Louis in Week 1, Seattle has allowed over 27-points per game.

Why Seahawks cover: Have won three of five meetings all-time. Are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five home games. Could get Matt Hasselbeck back from injury.

Total (TBA): Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (+3.5)

Why Colts cover: Are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games. Peyton Manning has been able to pick apart any defense this season and has thrown for over 300 yards in every game. The Titans have the league's worst pass defense. Without stifling defense of last season, Kerry Collins (68.9 rating, 6 INTs) has struggled to carry the team and could lose his job to Vince Young.

Why Titans cover: Have won three of past five meetings. Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Colts are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings. NFL's leading rusher Chris Johnson could help control the clock and keep Manning and company off the field.

Total (45 1/2): Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.

N.Y. Jets at Miami (+1)

Why Jets cover: Are 20-5-2 ATS in their last 27 meetings and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings in Miami. Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings. Miami QB Chad Henne was mediocre against Buffalo's 30th ranked defense last week and will have a tough time against a Jets' squad that is fifth in the NFL against the pass. Get linebacker Calvin Pace back from suspension.

Why Dolphins cover: Second-ranked rush offense could shut down Jets' run game and force rookie Mark Sanchez, who is coming off a four turnover game, to try and carry the offense. Underdog is 3-1-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

Total (36): Under is 4-0 in Jets' last four road games and 5-1 in their last six games overall.

Do or Die for the Titans
By Judd Hall

Before the season started this Week 5 showdown between the Colts and Titans at LP Field as an early battle for AFC South supremacy. Now Tennessee (0-4 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) has its proverbial back against the wall for NBC’s Sunday Night Football at 8:20 p.m. EDT.

The Titans opened the season with a tough 13-10 road loss in Pittsburgh in a game where they had every chance to win. It’s been all downhill from then on for Tennessee as they’ve fallen to the Texans, Jets and Jaguars – all teams that failed to yield a winning 2008 campaign.

What exactly has happened to Jeff Fisher’s club to turn them into an also-ran in 2009? VegasInsider.com’s expert handicapper Bruce Marshall thinks a lot of the Titans’ success had to some good luck that fell into their lap. “I think their success was something that really snowballed almost accidentally last season, triggered by a couple of early events that, if they didn't happen, could have changed the direction of the campaign. Specifically, Vince Young’s early injury and Collins stepping in at quarterback turned out to be an incredible stroke of good luck. The Titans won a few early close games, and the momentum began to surge. They made few mistakes last season (only 17 TOS all season). The defense was robust and injuries were relatively few.”

Marshall makes a good point on Tennessee holding onto the ball. Last year, the Titans were second in the league with a giveaway-takeaway mark of plus-14. Through four tilts this season, they are a paltry minus-five.

Injuries have taken their toll on the Titans’ secondary. Safety Vincent Fuller (forearm) is “out” until November. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) are both listed as “questionable” for Sunday’s showdown. Those are huge losses for a group that allowed just 199.8 passing yards per game last season. They’re giving up a league worst 282.3 YPG through the air in 2009.

Marshall thinks it all starts with the man who isn’t there running the show. “The turnovers and injuries haven't helped, and (Albert) Haynesworth's departure was a blow, but I think the biggest difference since a year ago is the departure of defensive coordinator (Jim) Schwartz. The stop unit isn't the same this season and I think Schwartz's absence is a main reason. The breakdowns in the secondary, which have led to big plays and points allowed, which have led to a different pace of the last three games, which has led to Colllins' reduced effectiveness and the turnover problems, are all byproducts of the defensive breakdowns. Caused mostly, I believe, by Schwartz's departure. And it creates a very scary scenario vs. Peyton Manning and the Colts. If Matt Schaub, David Garrard, and Mark Sanchez have looked good against this Titan defense, it's scary how Manning could look Sunday night.”

It is going to be a tough task to stop Indianapolis’ (4-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) offense right now. The Colts are sixth in scoring offense (26.5 points per game) and lead the league in passing offense (334.0 YPG). Perhaps even more frightening is the fact that Indy is pulling in those numbers by ranking near the bottom in time of possession, averaging just below 28 minutes per game.

Those stats make it a pretty easy to understand why Manning leads the league with a 114.5 quarterback rating. But the fact that he’s doing this without Marvin Harrison and Anthony Gonzalez in the lineup is impressive. Dallas Clark has caught 26 passes for 364 yards and two touchdowns. Meanwhile, youngsters Pierre Garcon (10 receptions, 207 yards, 2 TD) and Austin Collie (12 receptions, 131 yards, 1 TD) have stepped up.

The Colts’ have clicked on the attack this year. They’ve scored 11 touchdowns in their last three games – six of them were on drives that lasted less than two minutes, 30 seconds. And of those six scores, only one was less than 60 yards.

Indianapolis has dominated the outright numbers of this series with a 7-3 SU mark, but they’re just 5-5 ATS. The Titans have gone 5-1 ATS in the last six head-to-head meetings. The ‘under’ is on a profitable 7-1 run between these rivals.

Bodog initially opened the line for this game with the Colts as 3 ½-point road favorites with a total of 46. That line has now moved with Indianapolis as a four-point road “chalk” with the total moving down to 45.

Richard Gardner of Bodog gives us a peak into why the spread is where it has been posted. “The line opened at -3.5 and has moved to -4 with heavily action as this easily the most off side game. The Titans injuries to the secondary obviously play a part, but even more important has been the offensive excellence shown by the Colts. The new wide receivers appear to have clearly defined roles and the general public has always loved to bet on teams where the offense is on a roll. Throw in the fact that the Titans have disappointed a lot of bettors and are still winless, and it creates the recipe for the one way action.”

It’s hard to tell what a win would do for the Titans in this spot. They’re in New England next weekend to take on the Patriots. Then Tennessee plays host to the Jaguars after its bye week. Follow that up with a road trip to San Francisco to take on a tough 49er defense. It’s very possible that the Titans could be 0-8 before taking on the Bills at LP Field for Week 10.

A win for Indy would give them even more momentum as they head into the open date on its schedule next week. The Colts have a solid chance to stay unbeaten with a road trip to St. Louis, then at home to play San Francisco and Houston.

The gambling public should note that the underdogs have gone 2-3 SU, but 3-1-1 ATS on Sunday Night Football this season. The ‘under’ had gone 3-2 in those primetime affairs as well. Don’t forget that we’re including the aforementioned Steelers-Titans matchup that was played on Thursday.

vegasinsider.com

What Bettors Need to Know: Colts at Titans
By Sean Murphy

Line movement

The Colts opened as 3-point favorites at most books before quickly being bumped up to -3.5.

That’s where the line has held steady for most of the week, with the public hammering the Colts and the so-called sharps siding with the underdog Titans.

The total has seen little movement, dropping just a half-point since opening at 46.

The betting has been split on the total, but don’t be surprised if you see a slight dip in the number, likely down to 45 before kickoff.

Role reversal

Last year it was the Colts that struggled out of the gate, dropping two of its first three and four of its first six games.

Of course, Indianapolis rebounded to win nine straight games and earn an early playoff exit against the Chargers.

The Titans are the ones suffering in 2009, losing four consecutive games to start the season.

Sure, they’ve faced a couple of tough matchups against the Steelers and Jets, but they’ve also been favored in games against Houston and Jacksonville.

To their credit, this will be just the second home game for the Titans this season.

Who are these guys?

The Colts offense hasn’t missed a beat since losing No. 2 wideout Anthony Gonzalez.

Pierre Garcon and Austin Collie have proven to be more than adequate replacements.

After catching only four passes in his rookie season, Garcon has already hauled in 10 for 207 yards and two touchdowns this year.

The former BYU standout Collie has caught 12 passes for 131 yards and a score.

Reggie Wayne had no trouble summing up their performance.

"Whenever their number is called, they've been able to step up and hit home runs," he told the media.

Opportunity knocking?

How long will it be before the boo birds start raining down on Titans QB Kerry Collins.

Gone is the magic of 2008, as Collins has thrown for only 914 yards, five touchdowns, and six interceptions, while completing fewer than 56 percent of his passes.

After a promising preseason, many believe that it might finally be Vince Young’s time to shine.

Young isn’t ready to say that, at least not to the media.

"That is like saying you have no respect for your teammates. I have a lot of respect for my teammates and have their back 100 percent. If one guy is struggling, we are all struggling, and we need to put the pieces together to get everything right.''

If Collins struggles early, it will be interesting to see if Jeff Fisher shakes things up. At 0-4, what does he have to lose?

Trends and things

The Colts are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 October games, but have gone 5-12 ATS in their last 17 games against AFC South opponents.

The Titans are a perfect 8-0 ATS in their last eight games as 3.5 to 10-point underdogs, and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests following an ATS loss.

The under has cashed in seven of the last eight matchups in this series, but the over is 37-17-1 in the Titans last 55 games following a SU defeat.

Minnesota (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at St. Louis (0-4, 1-3 ATS)

In a battle of the haves and have-nots, Brett Favre and the unbeaten Vikings head down to the Edward Jones Dome to take on the winless and hapless Rams.

Minnesota dropped archrival Green Bay 30-23 Monday night as a 4½-point home favorite, with Favre leading the way against his former team. The QB, who turns 40 this weekend, finished 24 of 31 for 271 yards and three TDs with no INTs or fumbles, and he wasn’t sacked after being brought down nine times over the first three weeks. The Vikings’ defense also forced a pair of turnovers, got the ball on downs after a key goal-line stand and they sacked Aaron Rodgers eight times.

St. Louis got drubbed at San Francisco 35-0 as a healthy 9½-point underdog, posting its 14th consecutive loss (5-9 ATS). QB Kyle Boller, starting for the injured Marc Bulger (shoulder), passed for just 108 yards, with one INT returned for a TD, and the Rams committed two fumbles that were also recovered for touchdowns. St. Louis failed to force a turnover and finished with just 177 total yards.

Bulger is doubtful to return this week.

These two squads have met four times in meaningful games since 2000, with St. Louis going 3-1 SU and ATS, most recently posting a 41-21 rout as a 2½-point road chalk in December 2006. In this rivalry, the favorite is on a 5-0 ATS run, the home team is on 5-1 ATS roll, and the Rams are 4-0 ATS in the last four clashes in St. Louis.

The Vikings are on ATS skids of 2-7 after a spread-cover, 4-11 after a SU win and 4-9 against the NFC, and they are also 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after facing Green Bay, but they’ve cashed in four of their last five road games. The Rams sport nothing but negative ATS streaks, including 7-16 overall, 5-14 against winning teams, 6-16 at home, 23-49-1 after a pointspread setback and 5-10-1 as a pup of nine points or more.

The over for Minnesota is 7-3-1 in its last 11 on the road, but the under is on a 34-16-1 run with the Vikings coming off a spread-cover. The under for St. Louis is on streaks of 7-2-1 overall (3-1 this year), 4-1-1 at home, 6-2-1 after a SU loss and 5-2 against winning teams. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has gone high in five of the last six meetings overall and four straight at the Edward Jones Dome.

ATS ADVANTAGE: MINNESOTA

Dallas (2-2 SU and ATS) at Kansas City (0-4 SU and ATS)

The inconsistent Cowboys remain on the road for a second straight week against an AFC West squad, traveling to Arrowhead Stadium to face the winless Chiefs.

Dallas lost to Denver 17-10 Sunday as a one-point road chalk, failing to score in the last three quarters, including two shots from inside the 5-yard line in the final seconds. QB Tony Romo (25 of 42, 255 yards, 0 TDs) had a critical interception in the red zone and also lost one of his two fumbles, and the Cowboys fell despite a six-minute edge in time of possession.

Kansas City lost to the Giants 27-16 Sunday as a heavy nine-point home pup, the squad’s eighth consecutive loss (2-6 ATS) dating to the end of last November. QB Matt Cassel threw for two TDs, but those came long after the outcome was decided, as New York led 27-3 in the fourth quarter. Even with the TDs, Cassel was 15 of 32 for just 127 yards, getting sacked five times, and the Chiefs finished with 193 total yards while allowing 429.

These teams have met just once this decade in a meaningful game, with Dallas winning 31-28 and pushing as a three-point home favorite in December 2005.

The Cowboys are 2-6 ATS in their last eight roadies and 1-4 ATS in their last five October starts, but they remain on positive pointspread swings of 4-1 after a SU loss, 4-1 after a non-cover, 7-3 as a favorite and 6-2 as a road chalk of 3½ to 10 points. The Pokes are also 7-2 ATS in their last nine games prior to the bye week.

The Chiefs are 2-18 SU (8-12 ATS) in their last 20 games, and they also carry ATS slides of 0-6 overall, 0-6 after a SU loss, 0-5 after a pointspread setback, 3-12 at home and 1-4 as a home ‘dog.

Dallas is on “over” runs of 14-6-2 as a road favorite, 6-1 giving 3½ to 10 points and 10-4 in October, and the over for Kansas City is on rolls of 20-8-1 in October, 6-2-1 at home, 4-1-1 with the Chiefs catching points and 3-0-1 with the Chiefs installed as a home ‘dog.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DALLAS and OVER

Washington (2-2, 1-3 ATS) at Carolina (0-3 SU and ATS)

The Panthers, who won the NFC South last year, once again try for their first win of the 2009 campaign when they host the Redskins at Bank of America Stadium.

Carolina had its bye last week after suffering a 21-7 Monday night loss at Dallas as a nine-point underdog on Sept. 28, falling to 1-5 SU and ATS in its last six games dating to the end of 2008 (playoffs included). QB Jake Delhomme (22 of 33, 220 yards, 2 TDs) continued to be plagued by turnovers, throwing two INTs and losing a fumble to run his season giveaway total to nine (7 INTs, 2 fumbles). The Panthers, who led 7-0 at the half before getting outscored 21-0 the reast of the way, also gave up a whopping 212 rushing yards.

Washington escaped with a 16-13 home win over Tampa Bay on Sunday, but fell far short of covering the 9½-point spread. QB Jason Campbell (12 of 22, 170 yards, 2 TDs, 3 INTs) had two INTs and a lost fumble in the first half alone, but he led a comeback from a 10-0 halftime deficit, throwing a pair of TDs in a 16-point third quarter.

Washington is 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four meetings with Carolina, most recently prevailing 17-13 as a four-point home ‘dog in November 2006. The underdog has cashed in eight straight clashes, with the road team going 6-2 ATS in those eight contests.

The Panthers have dropped four straight ATS decisions, but they are otherwise on positive ATS runs of 9-3-1 giving points, 8-4 at home and 8-3 following a SU loss. The Redskins sport negative ATS streaks of 1-8-3 overall, 6-17-4 against losing teams, 3-8-1 in October and a 1-4-1 on the road. Washington is also on an 8-16-3 ATS purge in non-division games.

The over is 8-3 in Carolina’s last 11 games and 9-2 in its last 11 against NFC foes, but the under for the Panthers is on stretches of 12-5 at home, 6-1 in October and 16-7 with Carolina as a home chalk. For Washington, the under is on tears of 19-7-1 overall (3-1 this year), 7-1-1 against losing teams, 9-2-1 against the NFC and 8-3-1 coming off the bye. Finally, the under is 3-0-1 in the last four clashes in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Tampa Bay (0-4, 1-3 ATS) at Philadelphia (2-1 SU and ATS)

The Eagles, coming off a bye and expected to have Donovan McNabb back at the controls, take on the winless Buccaneers at Lincoln Financial Field.

Philadelphia ripped Kansas City 34-14 laying nine points at home two Sundays ago, taking a 24-7 halftime lead and coasting from there. Backup QB Kevin Kolb (24 of 34, 327 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was solid, while wideout DeSean Jackson (6 catches, 149 yards, 1 TD) and tight end Brent Celek (8 catches, 104 yards, 1 TD) both cracked 100 yards receiving. The Eagles rolled up 420 total yards while allowing just 196.

Tampa Bay fell at Washington 16-13 Sunday, blowing a 10-0 halftime lead in being dealt its eighth straight loss (2-6 ATS), but still covering the 9½-point spread. New starting QB Josh Johnson didn’t do much, totaling just 106 yards passing on a 13-for-22 effort, with one TD and one INT, and the Buccaneers’ anemic offense managed just 229 total yards.

Tampa Bay has won and covered the last three clashes in this rivalry, including a 23-21 home victory getting six points in October 2006. The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.

The Eagles are on several ATS rolls, including 8-3 overall, 12-3 after a bye week, 9-4 against the NFC, 5-1 following the bye and 4-1 at home. The Bucs are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six when catching more than 10 points, but they are otherwise on pointspread dives of 1-5 overall, 1-5 after a SU loss and 2-5 from the underdog role.

The over for Philadelphia is on runs of 4-0 overall and 5-0-1 at the Linc, but the under is on a 16-2 spree with the Eagles coming off a bye week and is 23-9-4 in Philly’s last 36 as a home chalk. The over has hit in 10 of Tampa Bay’s last 14 road tilts, but the under for the Bucs is on streaks of 7-1 against winning teams and 8-3 against the NFC. Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in five of the last seven meetings in Philadelphia.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PHILADELPHIA

Oakland (1-3, 2-2 ATS) at N.Y. Giants (4-0, 3-1 ATS)

The unbeaten Giants, who spent the last three weeks on the road, finally return to the Meadowlands to take on the offensively inept Raiders.

New York rolled past Kansas City in Week 4, taking a 27-3 lead into the fourth quarter of a 27-16 victory as a nine-point road chalk Sunday. QB Eli Manning (20 of 34, 292 yards, 3 TDs, 1 INT) had a solid game before leaving in the fourth quarter with a foot injury, while RBs Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw combined for 156 rushing yards. The Giants rolled up 429 total yards and allowed just 193, with the defense recording five sacks.

Manning missed some practice time this week but he is listed as probable for this game.

Oakland got another dismal offensive effort in a 29-6 road loss to Houston as a nine-point underdog. Under-performing QB JaMarcus Russell completed just 12 of 33 passes for 128 yards, and the Raiders finished with just 165 total yards, with Houston nearly doubling that total at 329 total yards. Oakland also lost all three of its fumbles and had a time-of-possession deficit of more than eight minutes.

New York and Oakland have met just twice this decade, with each team going 1-1 SU and ATS and the road team winning and covering each time. Most recently, New York won 30-21 giving 7½ points on the road to close out the 2005 regular season.

The Giants are on a plethora of positive pointspread streaks, including 36-18-2 overall, 17-4-1 in October, 8-3 laying points, 23-7 after a SU win and 22-7 following a spread-cover. On the flip side, the Raiders are on ATS plunges of 20-42-1 coming off an ATS loss, 10-21 in non-division road games and 4-9 catching double digits.

The under for New York is on upticks of 5-1 with the Giants giving more than 10 points, 4-1-1 following a SU win and 5-0-1 after a spread-cover, and the under for Oakland is on rolls of 9-3-1 overall, 9-1 in October, 4-1-1 on the road (all as a pup) and 39-15-2 against winning teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NEW YORK and UNDER

Cleveland (0-4, 1-3 ATS) at Buffalo (1-3, 2-2 ATS)

The Browns, still winless under Eric Mangini and now without their top wideout, travel to upstate New York to take on the Bills at Ralph Wilson Stadium.

Cleveland’s 10th straight defeat last week was a heartbreaking one, as it fell 23-20 to Cincinnati in overtime, with the Bengals kicking the winning field goal with less than two minutes to go in the extra session. Although the Browns cashed as a six-point home ‘dog, they’re still just 1-8-1 ATS during their losing streak. QB Derek Anderson, back in the starting role, went 26 of 48 for 269 yards with one TD and one INT, and RB Jerome Harrison (29 carries, 121 yards) and WR Mohamed Massaquoi (8 catches, 148 yards) had big days. However, Harrison lost a fumble that was returned 75 yards for a second-quarter TD.

Star wideout Braylon Edwards didn’t have a single catch for Cleveland last week, and after getting into a scrap at a nightclub earlier this week, he was traded to the Jets.

Buffalo got mauled in Miami 38-10 as a one-point pup Sunday, trailing 31-3 in the fourth quarter before finally finding the end zone on Trent Edwards’ lone TD pass of the day. Edwards finished 14 of 26 for 192 yards, and he threw three INTs, including one that was returned for a score. The Bills forced no turnovers, gave up a whopping 250 rushing yards and lost the time-of-possession battle by 14 minutes.

Cleveland is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meaningful meetings this decade with Buffalo, including a 29-27 road upset last November as a 4½-point pup – the Browns’ last SU victory.

The Browns have covered in their last six October games and are on a 6-1-1 ATS run as a road pup of 3½ to 10 points, but they’re also mired in ATS funks of 0-5 on the highway, 1-7-1 after a SU loss and 1-6-1 as an underdog. The Bills, meanwhile, are on ATS dives of 1-6 at home and 1-4 as a home chalk, though they sport positive pointspread streaks of 25-8-1 against losing teams and 4-1 following a SU loss.

Cleveland is on “under” runs of 17-8-1 overall, 18-7-2 against losing teams and 3-0-1 on the road, while the over for Buffalo is on surges of 5-2 overall (3-1 this year), 5-0 after a SU loss, 4-1 at Ralph Wilson and 4-1 against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: NONE

Cincinnati (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Baltimore (3-1 SU and ATS)

The surprising Bengals travel to M&T Bank Stadium to take on the rival Ravens in a battle for first place in the AFC North.

Cincinnati squeaked past Cleveland 23-20 in overtime Sunday, but failed to cover as a six-point road favorite. The Bengals blew a 14-0 lead, tied it late in the fourth quarter on a short TD toss from Carson Palmer to Chad Ochocinco, had the extra point blocked, then won on Shayne Graham’s 31-yard FG in the waning seconds of OT. Palmer (23 of 44, 230 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) had a decent effort in an evenly played game, as Cincy totaled 375 yards and allowed 395.

Baltimore nearly knocked off host New England on Sunday, coming up just short on its last-minute drive in a 27-21 loss as a one-point pup, only its second SU and ATS loss in its last nine games. QB Joe Flacco (27 of 47, 264 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) was solid again, though his INT came in the red zone, and RB Ray Rice ripped off 103 yards on just 11 carries. The Ravens outgained the Pats 363-319 but trailed in time of possession by 10 minutes.

Baltimore won and covered in both meetings with Cincinnati last year, following a 6-1 SU and ATS run by the Bengals in this rivalry. The Ravens are 9-3 ATS in the last 12 clashes at M&T Bank Stadium, the favorite is on a 6-2 ATS run, and the home team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven contests.

The Bengals are on ATS rolls of 5-2 overall and 4-0 as a pup, but they also carry negative pointspread streaks of 2-6 in division play, 4-11 against the AFC, 7-18-2 in October and 2-5 on the road. Conversely, the Ravens are on pointspread tears of 18-6 overall, 6-1 at home, 4-0 giving points, 11-3 against the AFC, 7-2 inside the division and 39-15-1 as a home chalk.

The over is 5-1 in Cincinnati’s last six division contests, 4-1 in Baltimore’s last five overall and 11-4-1 in the Ravens’ last 15 AFC North games. However, the under is on runs of 13-6-1 for Cincy in conference play, 5-1 with Baltimore favored and 4-1 for the Ravens at home.

ATS ADVANTAGE: BALTIMORE

Pittsburgh (2-2, 1-3 ATS) at Detroit (1-3 SU and ATS)

The defending Super Bowl champion Steelers aim to get back above .500 with a trip to Ford Field to face the ever-struggling Lions.

Pittsburgh ran out to a 28-0 lead over San Diego on Sunday night, then gave nearly all of it away before finishing off a 38-28 home win as a 5½-point chalk, ending a two-game SU and ATS hiccup. QB Ben Roethlisberger (26 of 33, 333 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) was efficient, and RB Rashard Mendenhall (29 carries, 165 yards, 2 TDs) was career night in subbing for Willie Parker (turf toe). The Steelers racked up 497 total yards, nearly doubling the Chargers’ 251.

Detroit had its winning streak immediately halted at one, tumbling to Chicago 48-24 as a 9½ -point road underdog last Sunday and falling to 1-20 SU (8-13 ATS) in its last 21 starts. The Lions forged a 21-21 halftime tie, then got blown away in the second half. Rookie Matthew Stafford (24 of 36, 296 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT) had a strong effort before exiting with a partially dislocated right kneecap, and the Lions significantly outgained the Bear, by a 398-276 total.

Stafford is listed as doubtful this week and veteran QB Daunte Culpepper is likely to start.

These teams have just two regular-season meetings this decade, with Pittsburgh going 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS, most recently rolling 35-21 to cap the 2005 regular season but failing to cash as a 17-point home chalk.

The Steelers are 34-15-2 ATS in their last 51 October starts, but their ATS streaks trend down from there, including 1-4 overall, 0-4 on the road, 1-4 giving points and 3-9 laying more than 10 points. The Lions remain a dismal 2-26 SU and 9-19 ATS in their last 28 outings, dating to the middle of the 2007 campaign, and they are on additional ATS slides of 2-9 at home and 2-8 as a home pup. But they’re still 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games when catching more than 10 points and 6-2 ATS in their last eight following a pointspread setback.

The over for Pittsburgh is on runs of 5-2 overall, 5-2 with the Steelers favored and 4-1 with Mike Tomlin’s troops as a road chalk, and the over for Detroit is on stretches of 18-7-1 overall, 10-4-1 with the Lions a ‘dog and 18-5 with the Lions getting more than 10 points. However, the under has hit in Detroit’s last four at Ford Field.

ATS ADVANTAGE: PITTSBURGH

Atlanta (2-1 SU and ATS) at San Francisco (3-1, 4-0 ATS)

The improving 49ers remain at home for a second straight week when they take on the Falcons, who return from their bye and make the cross-country trek to Candlestick Park.

San Francisco is coming off a 35-0 pounding of hapless St. Louis on Sunday, easily cashing as a heavy 9½-point favorite. QB Shaun Hill (14 of 24, 152 yards, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) led an offense that netted just 228 total yards, but the defense held the Rams to a meager 177 and had two fumble-return TDs along with an INT return for a score, turning a 7-0 halftime lead into a second-half blowout.

Atlanta took a week off after its 26-10 loss at New England as a 4½-point pup. QB Matt Ryan (17 of 28, 199 yards, 0 TDs, 0 INTs) helped the Falcons to 10 first-half points, but Atlanta got outscored 13-0 in the second half and finished with just 255 total yards, while giving up 455 to the Pats, including 168 on the ground.

Atlanta edged San Francisco 20-16 giving 3½ points at home in November 2007, slowing a 3-1 ATS run by the Niners in this rivalry. San Fran is 6-2 ATS in the last eight Candlestick clashes between these former NFC West rivals.

The 49ers have covered in just one of their last seven October games (last week), but otherwise they are on positive ATS runs of 8-2-1 overall, 4-0-1 at home, 5-0-1 against winning teams, 4-0-1 after a SU win and 5-1 after a spread-cover. Hill is also 7-0 SU and 6-0-1 ATS as the starter at home.

The Falcons are on ATS upticks of 7-1 after a SU loss, 7-2 after a non-cover and 6-2 in October, but they’ve failed to cover in four straight games as a road pup of three points or less and 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 non-division affairs after a bye.

San Francisco is on a 7-2 “under” run, and Atlanta is on “under” streaks of 5-1 in October, 38-15-1 on the highway and 14-6 as a road pup, and in this rivalry, the under is on stretches of 4-1 overall and 4-0 at Candlestick.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and UNDER

New England (3-1, 2-2 ATS) at Denver (4-0 SU and ATS)

The surprising Broncos put their unbeaten record on the line at Invesco Field in a clash with the Patriots.

Denver made a late defensive stand to pull out a 17-10 home victory over Dallas on Sunday as a one-point home ‘dog and has now given up just 26 points on the season (6.5 ppg). QB Kyle Orton (20 of 29, 2 TDs, 0 INTs) still hasn’t thrown a pick this season, and surly WR Brandon Marshall broke through with a 51-yard game-winning TD catch prior to Dallas’ final drive. The defense gave up no points after the first quarter, with Champ Bailey picking off Tony Romo in the red zone on one possession and breaking up the final two passes of the game in the end zone.

New England held off Baltimore 27-21 Sunday as a one-point home chalk, turning back the Ravens inside the 15-yard line in the final minute. QB Tom Brady (21 of 32, 1 TD, 0 INTs) was solid, and the Pats won despite getting outgained 363-319, with the defense forcing two turnovers and twice stopping Baltimore on key fourth-down plays, including on the final drive.

New England pummeled Denver 41-7 last October laying three points at home, ending a 3-0 SU and ATS run by the Broncos in this rivalry. Denver is 5-2 SU and ATS in the last seven clashes.

The Broncos, one of the worst teams in the league against the oddsmakers the past few years, have cashed in all four games this year and are on further ATS runs of 7-1-1 as a home pup, 4-0 after a SU win and 4-0 after a spread-cover. However, they still shoulder negative ATS streaks of 7-19-1 at Invesco, 6-13 against winning teams and 10-21-1 in AFC contests.

The Patriots are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 following a pointspread win and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 coming off a SU victory, but they carry positive ATS streaks of 5-2 overall, 20-6-1 in October, 36-16-1 on the highway, 17-6 as a road chalk and 23-10 in non-division roadies.

The under has hit in all four of Denver’s games this year and is on further tears for the Broncs of 8-3 overall, 9-0 after a SU win, 7-0 after a spread-cover and 7-1 at home. On the flip side, the over for New England is on rolls of 8-3 overall (all as a favorite), 5-0-1 with the Pats laying three points or less and 7-3 with Bill Belichick’s troops favored on the road. Finally, in this rivalry, the over is 7-3-1 in the last 11 clashes overall and 6-1 in the last seven in Denver.

ATS ADVANTAGE: DENVER

Houston (2-2 SU and ATS) at Arizona (1-2 SU and ATS)

The defending NFC champion Cardinals look to get their 2009 campaign back on track when they play host to the Texans at University of Phoenix Stadium.

Arizona had its bye last week after getting blasted by Indianapolis 31-10 as a three-point favorite on its home field two Sundays ago. QB Kurt Warner racked up 352 passing yards, but he needed 52 passes to get there, completing 30, with just one TD against two INTs. The Cards had no running game (24 yards) and finished with 323 total yards, while giving up a whopping 505, including 379 passing yards and four TDs to Peyton Manning.

Houston routed putrid Oakland 29-6 Sunday laying nine points at home and has now alternated SU and ATS wins and losses in its last six games, dating to the final two outings of the 2008 season. QB Matt Schaub got a lot of mileage out of his 11 completions on 22 attempts, netting 224 yards and a TD, with one INT. The Texans also got a safety, followed immediately by a kick-return TD in the third quarter to cap the scoring, and they held the Raiders to just 165 total yards.

These teams have met just once in the regular season, with Houston taking a 30-19 home win as a three-point ‘dog in December 2005.

Despite their slow start, the Cardinals remain on ATS rolls of 6-2 overall, 4-0 in October, 9-4 giving points and 15-7 following a SU loss. In addition, Arizona is 10-4 ATS following the bye when it has lost prior to a week off. The Texans are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 October starts and 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the road after a SU win, but they are on positive pointspread runs of 8-3 overall, 5-0 as a pup, 4-1 on the road and 5-2 against losing teams.

The over for Arizona is on tears of 36-16 overall, 17-4 in October and 12-3 at home, and the over for Houston is on streaks of 8-3 on the road, 16-6-1 with the Texans a ‘dog and 8-2 as a road pup. However, the Cards are on an 8-3 “under” run coming off the bye, and the total has stayed low in seven of the Texans’ last 10 games overall.

ATS ADVANTAGE: ARIZONA and OVER

Jacksonville (2-2 SU and ATS) at Seattle (1-3 SU and ATS)

The Jaguars, coming off a pair of upset wins, make the lengthy trip to the Pacific Northwest for a non-conference battle with the Seahawks at Qwest Field.

A week after topping Houston 31-24 as a four-point road underdog, Jacksonville ripped Tennessee 37-17 as a three-point home ‘dog last Sunday. QB David Garrard (27 of 37, 323 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs) was sterling in leading an offense that put up 442 yards with just one turnover, while the Jags’ defense forced two INTs and a fumble. Jacksonville finished with an eight-minute edge in time of possession.

Seattle got doubled up in a 34-17 road loss to Indianapolis as a healthy 10-point underdog for its third consecutive SU and ATS setback. QB Seneca Wallace (33 of 45, 257 yards, 1 TD) again filled in for Matt Hasselbeck (broken rib), losing a pair of fumbles and getting sacked five times, and the Seahawks trailed 34-3 before putting up two meaningless fourth-quarter TDs.

Hasselbeck is probable to return today.

Seattle is 2-1 SU and ATS in three meetings this decade with Jacksonville, though most recently, the Jags won 26-14 as a three-point home chalk in September 2005.

The Jaguars, despite solid efforts the past two weeks, remain on pointspread dives of 2-7 after a spread-cover, 2-6 after a SU win and 3-8 after an outright victory of more than 14 points, and they are on a 3-8 ATS purge outside the AFC South. The Seahawks are 3-1-1 ATS in their last five at Qwest and 7-1 ATS in their last eight against AFC opponents, but they are in ATS funks of 1-4 overall and 15-35-1 in October.

The under is 4-1 in Jacksonville’s last five roadies and 5-2-1 in Seattle’s last eight at home. However, the over is on runs of 34-16-1 for Seattle in October, 10-4-2 for Jacksonville after a SU win and 8-3-1 for the Jags against losing teams.

ATS ADVANTAGE: SEATTLE

Indianapolis (4-0, 3-1 ATS) at Tennessee (0-4, 1-3 ATS)

The reeling Titans, who just last season had the NFL’s best record, try again to grab their first win of the 2009 campaign when they face the AFC South rival Colts at LP Field.

Tennessee, which went 13-3 SU and 12-4 ATS in the 2008 regular season, got drummed by Jacksonville 37-17 Sunday as a three-point road chalk. The Titans trailed 30-3 in the third quarter, and QB Kerry Collins (29 of 48, 284 yards, 1 TD) threw a pair of INTs as Tennessee lost the turnover battle 3-1 and had an eight-minute time-of-possession deficit.

Indianapolis remained unbeaten in coasting to a 34-17 victory over Seattle on Sunday, giving up two meaningless late TDs after storming to a 34-3 lead. QB Peyton Manning (31 of 41, 353 yards, 2 TDs, 1 INT) led four TD drives of 78 yards or more as the Colts rolled up 431 total yards while allowing just 279. The Indy defense also forced a pair of fumbles from Seahawks QB Seneca Wallace.

Tennessee is 5-1 ATS (3-3 SU) in the last six clashes in this rivalry, covering five straight times before Indianapolis’ 23-0 rout as a three-point home ‘dog in the final week of the 2008 regular season, with both teams resting players for the postseason. The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Titans are stuck in ATS ruts of 1-5 overall, 0-4 in division play, 0-4 after a SU loss and 1-5 against AFC foes, but they still hold positive ATS streaks of 7-1 as a home pup and 8-0 when catching 3½ to 10 points. The Colts are on pointspread surges of 5-1-1 on the highway, 5-1-1 against losing teams and 8-2 in October, but they’ve gone just 5-12 ATS in their last 17 division tilts (0-1 ATS in the division this year).

Indianapolis is on “over” runs of 4-0 against losing teams, 4-1 in October and 5-2 inside the division, and the over for Tennessee is on tears of 4-1 at home, 9-3-1 as a home ‘dog, 23-10-1 in October, 37-17-1 after a SU loss and 42-20-1 following an ATS setback. Conversely, the total has stayed low in seven of the last eight meetings in this rivalry.

ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER

Gametimepicks.com

Bring-On-Best
By SportsPic

Broncos one of five remaining undefeated teams face their toughest test this Sunday when Brady and company visit INVESCO Field for a week-five showdown. Hard to argue with a team that is undefeated and allowing a measly 6.5 points per game on 239.8 total yards (162.5 PY, 77.2 RY). However, Pony's did catch an opening week fluke in Cincinnati, feasted on Browns, Raiders two of the worst teams in the NFL and certainly got a gift from Dallas last week. Denver's defense deserves respect, but Tom Brady finally heating up after a slow start can do damage with Randy Moss, Joey Galloway on the outside and returning Wes Welker in the slot. Denver also needs to be wary of Patriots ground game which has been used effectively the past two games notching 3 touchdowns on 69 carries, 253 rushing yards. Patriots no strangers to undefeated teams beating two of the three they've faced could take down surprising Broncos. Patriots are a solid 32-8 (25-15 ATS) as road favorites under Belichick, been great bets as road favorites in October going 8-1 both SU & ATS last nine situations and enter 6-0 ATS on the highway vs opponent off straight-up dog win.

Week 5 Betting Preview
By Lenny Del Genio

Here are some key NFL betting angles for this week’s games. They are designed to aid you in your own handicapping ventures as we factor them into our own handicapping acumen, although they are not the sole basis for the plays. Be sure not to miss our 20* AFC and 20* NFC Games of the Month on Sunday!

Minnesota (-10) at St. Louis (41) – This is one of four double-digit favorites on the Week Five card, and one of two on the road. It’s probably deserved as the Rams have scored a ghastly 24 points in four games, 17 of them coming in a 19-point loss at Green Bay. They have been shut out twice and are on a 3-8 ATS run as a home dog and 0-6 ATS at home coming off a road loss. The Vikings should view this as a “trap game” considering they are off the emotional Monday Night win over Green Bay and have Baltimore, Pittsburgh and a rematch with the Packers on deck.

Dallas (-8) at Kansas City (42) – There were four home dogs on the Week Four card. Three of them covered. The other was Kansas City, who now stands at 0-4 SU/ATS on the year. The Cowboys were one of those road favorites last week that did not cover, losing outright 17-10 at Denver. That, nor a 10-3 SU/7-6 ATS mark as road chalk under HC Phillips, have stopped the oddsmakers from making you lay big points with Dallas away from home again this week. The Cowboys are 9-2 ATS in pre-bye week games and this will be just their 2nd visit to Arrowhead in 18 seasons.

Washington (37.5) at Carolina (-4) – The Panthers are 0-3 SU and coming off their bye week. Enter the Washington Redskins, who may be 2-2, but could be the least impressive .500 club in the league. They have yet to cover a single spread and are averaging just 14 PPG. Going back to last year, Washington has covered just one of its previous 12 games. Under Jim Zorn, they have never won a game by more than eight points. Something has to give here as the favorite is 6-1 SU/ATS in post Carolina bye week games, but the underdog is on an 8-0 ATS run in this H2H series. Neither of these teams have covered a single spread in ’09.

Tampa Bay (42) at Philadelphia (-15) – We don’t want to say that it’s time to panic in Tampa, but the Bucs are already 15-point underdogs in Week Five. They have now lost eight straight games dating back to last season and are just 4-10 ATS their last 14 overall. The only good news is that they have won and covered three straight meetings with Philadelphia, all as underdogs. The Eagles are off their bye, a situation they have won 11 straight times in for HC Reid (9-2 ATS). They are just 5-6 ATS as double-digit favorites, however.

Oakland (37.5) at NY Giants (-15) – The Giants finally return back home after a 3-0 SU/ATS road trip and are huge favorites against a Raiders team quickly reverting back to its pathetic ways. Beware of the look-a-head for New York, as they are in New Orleans next week for a likely battle of NFC unbeatens (Saints have off this week). Oakland has covered four straight as DD dogs. The Giants are perfect against the spread this season and are 16-5 ATS their last 21 games overall, not to mention 14-5 ATS in their last 19 non-conference games.

Cleveland (40.5) at Buffalo (-6) – The Browns finally showed some life, with Derek Anderson under center last week, but still came up short losing at home in OT to the Bengals. If they fall here, it could get ugly because there doesn’t appear to be many games in the “winnable” category for Cleveland until December. Buffalo is on a slide of its own, getting outscored 65-17 its last two games. Cleveland has beaten the Bills each of the last two seasons. Whichever coach loses this game will see his job come under even more scrutiny.

Cincinnati (42) at Baltimore (-8.5) – Winner of this game gains sole possession of first place in the AFC North at 4-1. The Bengals have won three straight games while the Ravens are off their first loss of the season. Cincinnati is actually one freak play away from being 4-0 SU. The favorite is on a 14-5 SU/ATS run in this H2H series and the Ravens are 9-1 ATS as a favorite and 6-2 ATS in division games under HC Harbaugh. Baltimore swept last year’s games while Cincinnati did the same in 2007.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Detroit (44) – The Steelers are the fourth and final road favorite we spoke of earlier. The Lions are looking for their first two-game win streak at home since November of ’07. The Steelers are a lousy 5-7 SU and 4-8 ATS in the road chalk role under HC Tomlin. Detroit reverted back to its losing ways last week, falling 48-24 in Chicago (now 1-20 SU L21 games) and is 0-7 ATS at home off a SU loss.

Atlanta (41) at San Francisco (-2.5) – The winner of this game will be in very good shape with just one loss through five weeks. The Falcons are off a bye week, meanwhile the 49ers were busy (finally) signing 1st Round DC Michael Crabtree (won’t play here). These teams used to be division rivals and Atlanta is probably very thankful for realignment as they are just 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS their last 11 visits here. That one SU victory did come in their last visit, back in 2004. The 49ers have not lost a home game under HC Mike Singletary.

New England (-3) at Denver (41) – Who would have guessed this would be the marquee AFC Game on the Week 5 slate? New England appears to have gotten back on track, following BB home wins over Atlanta and Baltimore. The Broncos are the league’s biggest surprise at 4-0 SU/ATS. They have allowed the fewest points in the league (26). To put that number in perspective, the Denver defense allowed 117 points through four games last year. Thus, they have gone Under in all four games. The last seven meetings between these teams in Denver have averaged 48 PPG, with six going Over. New England is 25-5 SU & 21-7 ATS as road chalk of a TD or less under HC Belichick.

Houston (50.5) at Arizona (-5.5) – This is just the second all-time meeting and the first ever in Arizona. Both teams are off to disappointing starts. The Cardinals are off a bye, a role they are 11-3 Under in. However, plenty of trends favor the Over here. Houston has cashed seven of eight as underdogs, but is just 5-9 ATS on the non-conference road.

Jacksonville (N/A) at Seattle (Pick) – Two teams headed in opposite directions here with the Jags coming in as winners of two straight while the Seahawks have lost three in a row. After this game, Jacksonville will face three teams that are winless in ’09, so the consecutive division wins may be the start of something big. Seattle is on an 11-6 ATS run at home and expected to get several key contributors, most importantly QB Hasselbeck, back from injury. The Seahawks are just 1-10 ATS vs. teams averaging more than 24 PPG.

Indianapolis (-3.5) at Tennessee (45.5) – This is the Sunday Night game. The Titans are in dire straits with the unbeaten Colts here, followed by the Patriots next week. Since a 10-0 SU start last year, Tennessee has lost eight of its last 11. Meanwhile, Indianapolis has won 13 straight regular season contests. Their bye week is next week, so they could get caught “looking ahead.” The Colts are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games on the division road. Tennessee has lost four straight division games, but is 5-1 ATS L6 vs. the Colts.

NY Jets (-2) at Miami (36) – This is the Monday Night Game. The Jets lost for the first time last week, while the Dolphins won for the first time. New York has covered six straight here and has not lost on South Beach since 2005. That being said, the Fish are 5-1 SU L6 division games. The Jets defense is allowing just 277 YPG so far. Since 1992, the Jets are 23-8 ATS vs. Miami since 1992.

Streaks, Notes, Trends
By SportsPic

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants

The 'Boys-In-Blue' one of five undefeated teams take on hapless Raiders in what has the markings of a huge blowout. Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell completing only 39.8% of his passes isn't likely to solve Giants standout pass-defense (115.0 PYG). Raiders struggling offense now without RB Darren McFadden adds fuel Silver and Black are in deep do-do. Giants with or without Eli (heel injury) should shred Raiders pass 'D' surrendering 210.5 PYG while RB's Brandon Jacobs, Ahmad Bradshaw should gouge Raiders run stop unit allowing 146.2 RYG. But, can G-Men cover the massive -16 point spot ??. Consider these trends: Home teams the past five seasons laying double TD's are 13-19 ATS, Giants haven't been book busters laying double digits at home (1-4-1 ATS), Raiders aren't exactly the greatest on the highway going 8-26 SU the past four plus seasons but they've kept competitive vs the oddsmaker notching a 17-17 mark at the betting window. Spread-wise Raiders have enjoyed success against NFC East opponents, they're 7-3 ATS and a perfect 5-0 ATS on the road

Cleveland Brown at Buffalo Bills

Cleveland 0-4 (1-3 ATS) on the season, 1-12 (2-10-1 ATS) the past thirteen on the field flat-out stink. But, so do the Bills who after getting dumped 38-10 at Miami enter 3-11 (5-9 ATS) since mid-season last year. Which dud is likely to reward backers. Got to think it's Cleveland. At least Browns were completive last week in their OT loss to the Bengals while Bills and sputtering Trent Edwards were simply out of it from the get-go. Break out week for Browns, they defeated Bills 29-27 last year cashing as 4.5 point road dogs, squeezed past Bills 8-0 as 4 point home faves back in '07 and enter this contest 7-1 ATS L8 vs AFC East opponents. It's also interesting to note Bills do not respond well for backers after playing Dolphins going 3-20 against-the-number where-as Browns are a cash stuffing 10-2 against-the-oddsmaker after banging-heads with Bengals.

New York Jets at Miami Dolphins

Jets fearsome defense stopped the Saints twice on fourth-and-short and held Brees to 190 yards passing, no touchdowns yet New York suffered it's first defeat as Saints 'D' schooled rookie QB Mark Sanchez sacking the pivot four times, picking him off three times in a 24-10 victory. Don't ground Jets and their pilot just yet, they have an easy flight coming up. Jets run stop unit (100.3 RYG) will be tested by Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams but keep in mind Jets held the pair to a combined 82 RYG average in two meetings last season. A great spot for Jets, they're 21-7 (22-5-1 ATS) on the highway stuffing the opponents ground game (<100 RYG). As for the rookie QB, bounce back time, Sanchez and his crew should do a number against Miami's secondary shredded for 238.5 passing yards/game. Jets have enjoyed success against rival Dolphins winning 8-of-10 with an 8-1-1 mark at the betting window. A deeper dive shows Jets an awesome 8-3 as visitor in the series with a near perfect 10-1 mark against-the-oddsmaker. As for Monday Night Light's, Jets are 4-0 (3-0-1 ATS) vs Dolphins.

Sunday's Key NFL Line Moves

Minnesota Vikings at St. Louis Rams (+10.5, 40.5)

Opening line: -10, 40.5

Where the early action is: 92 percent - Vikings

Comments: Big win earlier this week for the Vikings on Monday night versus the Packers. It was the first game the 4-0 Vikings actually had the lead at halftime. Kyle Boller will make his second start in place of the injured Marc Bulger, which doesn’t help the Rams’ chances. The early action is heavy once again on the Vikings and we expect it to remain that way. The Vikings could be in a dangerous let down spot here. They might look past this game and on to three tough games ahead of them.

Fact: The Rams have lost 15 of their last 17 home games

INJ: St. Louis - QB Marc Bulger (Rotator Cuff) is downgraded to doubtful,

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (+9, 42.5)

Opening line: -9, 43

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Cowboys

Comments: Both teams lost last week and both desperately need a win this week. The Cowboys are looking for their first break out game and the Chiefs are looking for their first win. The straight bet action is light on this game due to the high spread. Like last week, the bettors are going back to teasing these higher spreads. The line will likely stay where it is, we aren’t sure what to expect from either team and give this line toss-up odds to cover either way. Teaser bets on this game will be our major decision.

Fact: The Cowboys have lost three consecutive times to AFC teams heading into Arrowhead this week.

Washington Redskins at Carolina Panthers (-4, 37.5)

Opening line: -3.5, 37.5

Where the early action is: 89 percent - Panthers

Comments: The winless Panthers come off a bye week at home against a Washington team that has two wins but those were against winless teams; Rams and Bucs. Basically, the Redskins are the worst .500 team in the league. This is a huge game for the Panthers and we think they will come out recharged and desperate. Despite their strong running game, look for Steve Smith to put up some big numbers. The action is heavily one-sided which caused the line to move up. We expect the line to continue to grow. We give the Panther huge odds to win and moderate odds to cover the spread.

Fact: The Redskins have owned the Panthers in the past. The series history between these teams is 7-1 Redskins.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Philadelphia Eagles (-16, 41.5)

Opening line: -16, 43.5

Where the early action is: 52 percent - Eagles

Comments: The Eagles are coming off a bye week at home against the winless Buccaneers. QB Donovan McNabb (ribs) and RB Brian Westbrook (ankle) are both expected to return. The early straight bet action is very light on this game with teasers once again taking on majority of the bets. The odds give Tampa Bay almost zero chance to pull off an upset, but the Bucs have grit and we like them to stay within 16.

Fact: Philadelphia has never lost the week after the bye since Andy Reid became the team's head coach in 1999. They are 10-0.

Oakland Raiders at New York Giants (-16, 38)

Opening line: -16.5, 41

Where the early action is: 55 percent - Giants

Comments: This line was held off the board for most of the week due to Eli Manning’s injury status. It was announced Saturday he will play. The Raiders are a troubled team and we don’t see this as a turn around game for them. Oakland’s run defense ranks 26th in the league and Giants offense ranks sixth on the ground. The action is light so far, the line has only been open a few hours, but we expect the action to pile up on the Giants and rightfully so. Oakland will have a hard time finding the end zone again this week.

Fact: Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell can’t hit the broad side of a barn; he has completed less than 40 percent of his passes in the last three games.

Cleveland Browns at Buffalo Bills (-6, 41.5)

Opening line: -6, 40

Where the early action is: 77 percent - Bills

Comments: Last week the Bills showed us how bad they really are against the winless Dolphins losing 38-10. It’s major desperation time for both teams, so expect anything. No one is betting this game with real money, the volume is low with only a few bets on the favorite. We give both teams big odds to lose.

Fact: The Browns last win was 10 games ago against the Bills in November 2007.

INJ: Cleveland - RB Jamal Lewis (hamstring) listed as questionable.

Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-9, 42.5)

Opening line: -9, 41.5

Where the early action is: 68 percent - Bengals

Comments: There are some Bengals backers out there who feel this line is too high. Sure they beat Pittsburgh and Green Bay, but they also struggled last week against the Browns. If you can get past that, then this line if for you. We are holding it high for a reason and probably won’t lower it. We expect balanced straight bet action and one-sided teaser action.

Fact: The Ravens average 10.7 points allowed in their last 10 home games.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Detroit Lions (+10.5, 44)

Opening line: -11, 43

Where the early action is: 93 percent - Steelers

Comments: All Steelers action all week – especially teasers. With Matt Stafford out with a knee injury, Daunte Culpepper gets the start. Our bettors aren’t taking any chances with this one and are loading up teasing the Steelers. There is no way to balance this type of action. No one is touching the Lions this week. We’ll need a Steelers let down game to keep from taking a big hit.

Fact: Ben Roethlisberger is currently carrying a huge 73.2 completion percentage.

Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-2.5, 40.5)

Opening line: -2.5, 41

Where the early action is: 59 percent – 49ers

Comments: This should be a very interesting game. The 3-1 49ers are clicking even without RB Frank Gore and the 2-1 Falcons come off their bye week, after losing to the Patriots. The Falcons had a hot start to their season prior to their loss two weeks ago; can they get back up to that level? A win here would do it. We expect a close game as the line suggests, but give the 49ers a slight home field advantage.

Fact: Shaun Hill’s record as a starter at Candlestick is 7-0.

NJ: San Francisco - RB Frank Gore (ankle) expected to miss

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+3.5, 41)

Opening line: -4, 41.5

Where the early action is: 52 percent - Broncos

Comments: The 4-0 Broncos are once again a home underdog. Normally this would be a surprise for an unbeaten team to not get recognized like this each week, but each week their opponents are getting stronger and stronger. The line opened Patriots -4 but was quickly bet down to -3.5. There are some strong Broncos backers this week, unlike last week. The public bettors are starting to believe in the Broncos defense and see the home team staying within 3 points. There is more money line action on the Patriots. We aren’t sure what to expect, except it will be a shocker to see the Broncos 5-0.

Fact: The Broncos lead the regular season history versus the Patriots 24-16

Houston Texans at Arizona Cardinals (-6, 50)

Opening line: -5.5, 48

Where the early action is: 72 percent – Texans

Comments: Arizona comes off its bye week after getting routed by the Colts at home 31-10. Everyone knows the Cards have not played well at home yet this season. The odds indicate this week will be their turning point, but the betting public seems to feel otherwise. Matt Schaub is white hot averaging 291 passing yards per game. Are we going to see the high flying Cards of the past? The over/under suggests a high scoring affair.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks (-1, 44)

Opening line: Pick, 44

Where the early action is: 92 percent – Seahawks

Comments: Seattle – The bettors have jumped on Seattle because QB Matt Hasselbeck is expected to play. This couldn’t come soon enough for the 1-3 Seahawks. They have only once had an offensive play over 25 yards since Hasselbeck went down. However, they are playing against a streaking Jacksonville team. That’s what makes this game a pick’em. Seattle will be tested on the ground; the club couldn’t stop Frank Gore a few weeks ago and might have the same problem against Maurice Jones Drew. We agree this game is truly a coin-toss. The best thing the Seahawks have going for them is the home field.

Fact: Jacksonville has only three sacks this season, which ranks last in the league.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+4, 44.5)

Opening line: -4, 46

Where the early action is: 85 percent - Colts

Comments: Two teams going in opposite directions. This will be a heavily bet game because it’s the last game of the day. We’ll look to balance the bets as evenly as possible, if the action remains this way by mid-Sunday, expect the line to move up. The winless Titans are sticking to their winless ways this week. A bit surprising to us, we expected something to change, especially at QB. On the other side Colts QB Peyton Manning is completing almost 71 percent of his passes and has 9 TD passes for 1,336 yards. But maybe we won’t see a high-flying game. That’s what dropped the over/under on this game.

Fact: Titans RB-Chris Johnson leads the NFL in rushing with 434 yards.

Falcons ready to face 49ers
By AllStar.com

This is a battle between two franchises that have turned their fortunes around in just two years, based on coaching changes. Mike Smith of Atlanta has brought stability and excitement back to the Falcons, while Mike Singletary has brought toughness and discipline to San Francisco. Both teams know they will have a much better feel of where they stand in the NFC after this game.

Fast Fact: The Falcons under Smith are 13-1 when leading at Halftime

Quarterback:Matt Ryan continues to show the poise of a seasoned vet for the Falcons. Ryan carries a QB rating over 100 into this game, and scouts rave about his decision making skills. The knock against Ryan is his inability to stretch the field. Of the 60 passes he has completed in 09, the longest was only 27 yards. Coaches would like to see him show off that cannon arm, and can’t quite figure out why he hasn’t with a burner like Roddy White at Wide Receiver. Still we like Ryan….alot!

Shaun Hill isn’t talked about when people discuss the best Quarterbacks in the NFC, but maybe he should be. He is 10-4 as a starter, has 5 TD’s to just 1 INT, has shown the ability to spread the ball around, and is an impressive 7-0 at home. It will be up to Hill to do the majority of the work with Frank Gore out of the lineup. We also like the fact that he has made Vernon Davis finally look like a top 10 Tight End which is easier said then done.

Running Back:Michael Turner entered the season as a legit MVP Candidate, but so far has struggled to get his game on track. During his time in San Diego, and last year with the Falcons, Turner was known for his big play ability. In 3 games, his longest run has been for just 16 yards, but he has faced 2 strong defensive teams in Miami, and New England.

Quick Fact: When Turner has 19+ carries, his team is 13-1 (.929)

Rookie Glen Coffee will continue to be the featured back for the 49’ers in Gore’s absence. He did well against St Louis averaging more then 3 yards a carry. Look for Coffee to run straight ahead behind the big San Fran offensive line. Coffee is also a weapon as a receiver having caught four passes against the Rams.

Quick (SF) Fact: Niners are 7-2 in their last 9 games under Singletary

Wide Receiver:Ryan has plenty of options catching the ball. Roddy White is an impact player, but has not been given the chance at a big play. He will look for his 5th straight October game with 8+ catches, 100+ yds, and 1+TD. Tony Gonzales looks like he still can be counted on with his 13 catches and 2TD’s in 3 games. Gonzales has had at least one catch in 134 straight games. Michael Jenkins had 5 catches for 78 yds vs. NE.

Michael Crabtree finally ended his holdout, and has practiced with the team, but we are not sure what to expect from him. He has game breaking speed, and showed soft hands at Texas Tech. Though the Niners are 3-1, don’t fool yourself into believing they are not thrilled to have Crabtree signed. 99 year old Isaac Bruce is much better suited as#2, then a #1 WR, and should be in that role after the Niners bye week. Vernon Davis has been dynamite this year. His 17 catches and 3 TD’s lead the team. Josh Morgan had a 24 yd TD last week.

Defense:When DT Peria Jerry went out for the year, so did the Falcons ability to stop running backs between the tackles. Look for the Niners to focus here with the run game. FS Thomas Decoud draws the assignment of covering Davis. It makes sense for the Niners to avoid John Abraham who has 86 sacks since 2000, and has recorded a sack in each of the last 2 matchups with SF.

The Niners did something last week that had not been done since 1966, scoring 3 non-offensive TD’s vs. STL. Patrick Willis had 8 tackles, 2 ½ sacks and a TD in the effort. They will have to try to contain Turner if they hope to improve to 4-1.

Key Injuries

Peria Jerry (ATL) – Out
Jason Elam (ATL) – Probable
Frank Gore (SF) – Out
Patrick Willis (SF) – Probable
Marques Harris (SF) - Questionable

Betting Trends

The 49ers are 4-0-1 in their last five games
The UNDER is 38-16 in the Falcons last 54 road games
The UNDER is 7-2 in the 49ers last nine games
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last five games between the two teams

Pats, Broncos ready for battle
By AllStar.com

One of the marquee matchups of the weekend finds a battle between student and teacher. Josh McDaniels left his job as offensive coordinator of the Pats to take the main job in Denver. After a rough off season that saw the trade of QB Jay Cutler, and issues with WR Brandon Marshall, McDaniels has settled nicely in to the Head Coach position. Although McDaniels has guided Denver to an undefeated start, he will face his stiffest test this weekend against his former team.

Quarterbacks:If you took a poll of all the head coaches in the NFL, and asked them to choose between Cutler, and Kyle Orton, you would be lucky to get more then one vote (Mc Daniels’) for Orton. Through 4 weeks Orton has been solid under center for Denver. He is starting to get comfortable with the offense, and could be asked to do more here. We like his 5 TD to 0 INT’s, and we also like the relationship between him and Marshall. He will face a steady rush all day, so look for more quick routes.

Quick Fact: Orton is 25-12 as a starter.

Tom Brady has not yet bounced back from the knee injury that sidelined him in 08. Speaking to scouts that focus on the AFC East, they swear he is timid, and is rushing his delivery in order to avoid the hit. His 4/2 TD/INT ratio backs this up, and his meager 83.7 QB rating is not that of an MVP Quarterback. These could improve if Wes Welker returns to the lineup.

Quick Fact #2 Tom Brady is 10-0 in October.

Running Backs:Knowshon Moreno will be the man for Denver, with news that Correll Buckhalter will miss the game with an injured ankle. Moreno has averaged 15 carries over the first four games, but look for the number to double Sunday. His chance for success will increase if Vince Wilfork and/or Jerod Mayo miss the game for NE due to injury.

Old Man Fred Taylor who has shown new life in New England will miss the game with an ankle injury. While nobody will confirm, rumor has it Taylor will need surgery on the ankle and may miss the rest of the year. That will leave Laurence Maroney as the number one back. Maroney had a lot of hype coming out of college, but has not shown the heart of an NFL back. Do not look for that to change versus a tough Denver D.

Wide Receivers:What a scene it was last week to see Brandon Marshall and McDaniels hugging during the win over Dallas. Marshall is a legit #1, but like so many other glamour boy selfish receivers (Ocho Cinco, TO) has had contract issues that have disrupted the squad. When his head is on straight, he can be a game changer. Jabar Gaffney and Eddie Royal are two other options for Orton, and slot specialist Brandon Stokley is having an outstanding campaign.

Wes Welker continues to have knee issues, and will be a game time decision. If he does play, it would not be a surprise to see him in a limited role. Randy Moss caught only 3 passes in the win against Baltimore. Moss has complained of back issues, but is not on the injury report. He will draw Champ Bailey, and if Welker can’t go, could be in for double coverage all afternoon.

QUICK FACT #3 SINCE 07 WES WELKER LEADS ALL WR’S WITH 241 CATCHES.

Defense:If you read any of the pre-season magazines, most had the Broncos picked to be 8-8 at best. While that still could happen, they have been one of the league’s early surprise teams, and a lot of the credit has to go to the defense which has given up just 26 point over four games. Last week the Broncos completely shut down Dallas, allowing just 38 yards rushing, and no touchdowns over the final 3 quarters. With high profile players Champ Bailey and Brian Dawkins taking care of the secondary, we want to watch DE Elvis Dumervil who has 8 sacks in his last 3 games, and looks for his 4th straight game with at least 2 sacks.

Bill Belichick as usual is not sharing much information with us, but from reports out of Patriots camp, DT Vince Wilfork, (ankle) and LB Jerod Mayo (knee) will be game time decisions, but we expect them to play. Mayo was expected to miss another 5 weeks, but has been running at practice, and should return. New England is feeling good after a solid defensive performance last week against Baltimore. Look for a lot of different looks in blitz packages in an attempt to confuse Orton and McDaniels.

Key Injuries

Wes Welker (NE) - Questionable
Fred Taylor (NE) - Out
Vince Wilfork (NE) – Questionable
Jerod Mayo (NE) - Doubtful
Correll Buckhalter (DEN) - Out
Brian Dawkins (DEN) - Questionable

Betting Trends

The Patriots are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games
The Patriots are 36-16-1 in their last 53 road games
The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games
The OVER is 8-3 in the Patriots last 11 games
The UNDER is 7-1 in the Bronco’s last eight home games

Tips and Trends

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

New England (-3, O/U 41): Tom Brady has lost only once in his last 24 regular-season games. But Brady hasn’t had great success when playing in Denver, losing three of four times. He’s thrown seven touchdowns and been picked off seven times when facing the Broncos on the road. The Patriots buried the Broncos, 41-7, last year in Foxboro without Brady accumulating 404 yards. New England rushed for 257 yards in that victory. But Denver is the only team Patriots coach Bill Belichick has a losing record against, going 3-5. The Patriots rank fourth in the AFC in defense, holding foes to 287.5 yards per game. Foes have scored six touchdowns in four games versus the Patriots. The Patriots have yet to give up 300 yards passing. They could be getting back star linebacker Jerod Mayo. New England is 36-16-1 (69 percent) against the spread in its last 53 road contests.

The Patriots are 17-6 ATS as a road favorite.
The Over has cashed in 8 of New England’s last 11 games.

Key Injuries - Linebacker Jerod Mayo (knee) is questionable.
Running back Fred Taylor (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 22

Broncos: The Broncos are gunning to go 5-0 for the first time in 11 years. New defensive coordinator Mike Nolan’s switch to a 3-4 defense has paid huge dividends so far as the Broncos have allowed only 26 points, the fewest in the NFL. Denver’s defense also ranks first in fewest yards allowed (239.8) forcing turnovers (10) and having the highest number of sacks with 15. Quarterback Kyle Orton is completing 59 percent of his passes for 906 yards. He’s thrown five touchdown passes and has yet to be picked off. Orton was 20-for-29 for 243 yards and two touchdowns in a home victory last week versus Dallas. The Broncos, though, are 7-17-1 against the spread following a victory and 8-19-1 against the number in their last 28 home games. Broncos head coach Josh McDaniels served as offensive coordinator for New England the previous three years.

Denver is 7-1-1 ATS as a home underdog.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the Broncos’ last eight home games.

Key Injuries - Running back Correll Buckhalter (ankle) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 19 (OVER - Total of the Day)

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans

Colts (-3.5, O/U 45.5): Thanks to Peyton Manning, the Colts are 4-0. Manning is having a superb season even by his lofty standards throwing for nine touchdowns. He is on pace to pass for a career-high 5,344 yards. The Colts have won a league-high 13 consecutive games. The Colts are averaging 30.6 points in their last three games. Manning should be in line for another big game against a porous banged-up Tennessee secondary that ranks last in pass defense. The Colts rank 13th in defense and expect to get back linebacker Gary Brackett, although star safety Bob Sanders probably remains at least a week away from playing. AFC South teams usually get up for Indianapolis. The Colts are just 5-12 against the spread in their last 17 division matchups. But they are 5-1-1 against the number in their last seven road contests and 8-2 against the spread in their last 10 October games.

The Colts are 23-10 to the Over when on the road facing a team with a losing home mark.
The Under has cashed in 7 of the last eight meetings between the teams.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Kelvin Hayden (hamstring) is doubtful.
Cornerback Marlin Jackson (knee) is questionable.
Safety Bob Sanders (knee) is doubtful.

PROJECTED SCORE: 24

Titans: The winless Titans haven’t started off this bad since 2006. There has been only one team – the 1992 Chargers – to open 0-4 and make the playoffs. The Titans have been hurt by the poor play of quarterback Kerry Collins, horrendous play from their defensive backfield and 11 turnovers. Last year, Tennessee turned the ball over just 13 times. The Titans are surrendering an average of 27 points after giving up 14.6 points per game last year. Collins has thrown six interceptions. He was picked off just seven times in 2008. Tennessee is yielding 282.3 yards through the air. Cornerbacks Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) and Nick Harper (ribs) have missed games and nickel back Vincent Fuller is out with a broken arm. The Titans usually play Indianapolis tough, though. They have covered five of the last six in the series and should be highly motivated for this nationally televised home division matchup.

The Titans are 7-0 ATS as a home underdog.
The Titans are 23-10-1 to the Over in their last 34 October games.

Key Injuries - Cornerback Cortland Finnegan (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21(Side of the Day)