Ravens at Falcons
By Kevin Rogers
A battle of two of the top birds in the NFL takes place at the Georgia Dome with the season's first Thursday night affair between the 6-2 Ravens and 6-2 Falcons. Both Baltimore and Atlanta have Super Bowl aspirations, while each squad is coming off a home victory last week to thrust themselves into favorable playoff seedings.
The Falcons staved off the feisty Buccaneers in a 27-21 win last Sunday, but Tampa Bay cashed as 10-point road underdogs. The Bucs made three huge plays, including a kickoff return for a touchdown from Michael Spurlock that gave Tampa Bay its third touchdown and the cover. Atlanta outgained Tampa Bay, 365-278 in the yardage department, while picking up 26 first downs for the Falcons' fourth home win in four tries.
John Harbaugh's club looked sharp off the bye with a 26-10 drubbing of the Dolphins last Sunday as five-point home favorites. The Ravens' defense held Miami to just three points after allowing a Ronnie Brown touchdown on the Dolphins' opening drive. Joe Flacco has been extremely consistent over the last month by tossing seven touchdowns and zero interceptions in the past four games (3-1).
Baltimore (4-3-1 ATS) and Atlanta (4-4 ATS) haven't been lighting the betting world on fire this season. The Falcons are 2-2 ATS at the Georgia Dome with non-covers in victories over the Niners and Buccaneers, while cashing the 'over' in three of four home contests. The Ravens own a 2-0-1 ATS mark as an underdog this season after winning outright at the Jets and Steelers. Baltimore picked up a 'push' in a Week 6 overtime loss at New England, 23-20 as three-point 'dogs.
Under Mike Smith, the Falcons are 2-9 ATS coming off consecutive wins, including a 1-2 ATS mark this season. Atlanta is 13-1 SU at the Georgia Dome when Matt Ryan starts at quarterback for the Falcons, while the NFC South leaders are 5-0 ATS since 2008 as a home favorite of four points or less.
Harbaugh and Smith were both hired as head coaches in 2008, as each team has improved significantly under these men. Baltimore was 1-7 SU on the road in Brian Billick's final season with the Ravens in 2007, but the team grabbed seven away victories (including playoffs) in Harbaugh's initial season. Since that highway success, the Ravens are just 5-7 SU since 2009 on the road, including a 2-2 SU mark this season.
The 'under' was extremely profitable on Thursdays last season with seven of eight games finishing 'under' the total. The final Thursday contest of the 2009 season broke the seven-game 'under' streak when the Colts beat the Jaguars, 35-31 in Week 15 to cash the 'over' of 43. Backing the favorite was a 50/50 proposition as the 'chalk' in Thursday games last season went 4-4 SU/ATS.
Vegas Insider handicapper Brian Edwards gives his perspective on this important showdown, "I think we have a very even matchup in what's basically a pick 'em situation. However, with all of these Thursday NFL games with the short week of preparation, I feel like the home team has an even bigger advantage than normal since it doesn't have to travel. Factor in Atlanta's 4-0 record at home compared to the Ravens' 2-2 road ledger, and I think you have to go with Atlanta or pass on the side."
The Ravens have seen only one total above 42 this season and that came in the overtime setback at New England, as the 'under' is 7-3-1 since 2009 in Baltimore contests with the total set at 42 or higher. Atlanta has seen the 'over' hit in all five games listed at 43 and above, including three consecutive 'overs' the last three weeks.
Edwards leans more towards a high-scoring affair on Thursday, "As for the total, it's probably a pass for me, but I'd go with the 'over' if I had to pick it. With the fast surface at the Georgia Dome and two QB's that aren't afraid to stretch the field, I think we'll see some big play in the passing game. Also, RB's Ray Rice and Michael Turner can produce big plays on the ground."
The Falcons opened up as a one-point favorite and have remained in that position heading into Thursday's matchup. The total is sitting at 43 ½ at most spots with several 43's floating out there. The game will be televised nationally on NFL Network and kicks off at 8:20 PM EST at the Georgia Dome.
vegasinsider.com
Falcons host Ravens in Thursday Night NFL betting special
By: Stephen Nover
Ready for some Thursday night NFL? It’s back this week starting with Baltimore meeting Atlanta at 5:20 p.m. PT on the NFL Channel.
The host Falcons are minus one at the NFL betting window with the ‘over/under’ at 43.
Could this actually be a Super Bowl preview? Both teams are 6-2. Atlanta is leading the NFC South Division while the Ravens are tied with the Steelers atop the AFC North.
Baltimore is for real. The Ravens proved that last season upsetting New England on the road in the playoffs. Baltimore is 18-6-2 ATS when getting between one and three points.
The Ravens aren’t flashy, but they don’t have any real weakness. They are physical – although less intimidating on the road – can rush the passer with Terrell Suggs and are balanced offensively with the running/receiving of Ray Rice and quarterback Joe Flacco.
This matchup really is a true test to see how real Atlanta is. The Falcons failed to beat another tough AFC North team on the road opening week, losing to Pittsburgh in overtime when the Steelers were forced to start Dennis Dixon at QB.
The Falcons have since won six of seven going 4-3 ATS. They have been extremely tough in the Georgia Dome winning 17 of 20 times there under Mike Smith. Matt Ryan is 17-1 at home as Atlanta’s starting quarterback.
This is Baltimore’s first dome game this season. The Ravens, though, are battle-tested having played road games against the New York Jets, Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and New England. They won and covered against the Jets and Steelers, but lost to the Bengals in Week 2 and fell to the Patriots, 23-20, getting a push on the spread.
The Ravens are off an impressive 26-10 home victory against Miami, covering as five-point favorites. The combined 36 points went ‘under’ the 40 ½-point total.
Flacco had one of his stronger games completing 20-of-27 passes for 266 yards and two touchdowns against Miami’s youthful secondary. The Georgia Dome will be a tough road venue for Flacco, who has been much better at home. He has thrown eight touchdown passes and no interceptions at home this season compared to a 4/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio on the road.
Rice and Willis McGee provide Flacco with two decent all-purpose backs. Rice has a combined 842 rushing and receiving yards, but has only two touchdowns. Anquan Boldin heads a veteran receiving corps that includes Derrick Mason, T.J. Houshmandzadeh and recently-returned Donte Stallworth.
Atlanta nearly blew a 14-point lead this past Sunday in beating Tampa Bay, 27-21, as 10-point home favorites. The combined 48 points went ‘over’ the 44 ½-point total. The Falcons needed a late goal line stand to hold off the upstart Buccaneers.
The Falcons had problems on special teams containing Michael Spurlock, who had four returns for 209 yards, including an 89-yard kickoff return.
Ryan was 24-for-36 for 235 yards and a touchdown against Tampa Bay. Roddy White, who entered the game leading the league in receptions, caught a season-low four passes for 49 yards. He missed some of the game with a mild knee injury, but said he would definitely play against the Ravens.
Star running back Michael Turner is coming on for Atlanta scoring four of his five touchdowns during the past two games.
The Falcons have scored 66 points in their last two games, but in their previous three games averaged 17.6 points.
“Our offense still is a work in progress,” Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez said. “We’re not where we want to be.”
Atlanta has covered eight of its last 10 times following a non-spread cover. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS as a home favorite.
The ‘under’ is 9-1-1 in Baltimore’s last 11 road contests.
The teams last met in 2006 with Baltimore winning 24-10 at home.
Thursday Night Football: Ravens at Falcons
By Ben Burns
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons (-1, 43.5)
The Ravens head to Atlanta Thursday night for a showdown between two top-tier Super Bowl contenders. The Falcons are +1,000 and the Ravens +700 to win the Super Bowl, according to Bodog.com’s current futures odds.
Baltimore (6-2, 4-3-1 ATS) arrives having won two straight with a bye week sandwiched in between victories over Miami and Buffalo. Last week’s 26-10 win over the Dolphins was perhaps the Ravens’ most complete game of the season.
Running back Ray Rice got untracked with 180 total yards, allowing Baltimore to control the football. The Ravens owned a ridiculous 17-minute advantage in time of possession and limited Miami to only 53 plays.
The Falcons (6-2, 6-2 ATS) weren’t quite as sharp in their win over Tampa Bay last week. They allowed a kickoff return for a touchdown and needed late goal-line stand to put away the scrappy Bucs.
Star wide out Roddy White sustained what he called a bruised knee and left the game momentarily. He would return but sat out practice Monday and Tuesday. White told reporters Tuesday that he would play against the Ravens.
Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan is 17-1 at home and will be facing a fellow third-year QB in Baltimore’s Joe Flacco.
The two teams have not met since 2006, a 24-10 Ravens’ win in Atlanta.
The line
The old Las Vegas oddsmaker joke about having to make someone the favorite so the squares know who to bet on seems to apply here. The Falcons opened as 1-point favorites at most outlets. The number had not budged as of Wednesday afternoon.
When facing a team with comparable talent, playing on the road hasn’t affected the Ravens much. They are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog of three points or less. In addition, the Falcons’ home-field advantage has not helped against quality teams that play well on the road, like the Ravens. Atlanta is 8-19-1 ATS at home against a team with a winning record on the road.
The total
The total opened up at 43.5, with a random 44 out there on Wednesday.
The Falcons score 24.5 and allow 19.2 points per game. The Ravens score 21.9 and allow 17.4 points per game.
The under is 9-1-1 in the Ravens last 11 road games and 13-6-1 overall in their last 20 games.
Injury report
The Falcons are a banged-up football team with two starters, center Todd McClure and linebacker Sean Weatherspoon, in addition to White missing practice time this week. Starting linebacker Curtis Lofton, No. 4 receiver Brian Finneran and key reserve running back Jason Snelling were limited in practice this week.
McClure, White, Lofton, Finneran and Snelling are going to play, but Weatherspoon is listed as day-to-day.
In contrast, Baltimore is relatively healthy. Safety Tom Zbikowski and defensive tackle Arthur Jones missed Tuesday’s practice. Zbikowski has missed the past two games with a bruised right heel.
NFL Week 10 Games
Ravens (6-2) @ Falcons (6-2) - Baltimore won five of last six games; Atlanta won six of last seven. Ravens are 2-2 on road (underdog 3-0-1 vs. spread) with all five games decided by 5 or less points, and average total of 29.5. Falcons are 4-0 at home (2-2 as home favorite), winning by 34-2-7-6 points. Atlanta was held to 58-65 rushing yards in its two losses; four of eight Baltimore foes have run ball for at least 117 yards. Ravens are +7 in turnovers last three games. Atlanta is 9-2-1 in last 12 games as favorite of 3 or less points. NFC South home teams are 4-6-2 vs. spread in non-divisional games; AFC North road teams are 5-4-2. All four Baltimore road games stayed under total; last three Atlanta games went over.
Tips and Trends
Baltimore Ravens at Atlanta Falcons
RAVENS: It's been quite some time since Baltimore has been tested on the road. The Ravens have only played 1 road game since October 3rd. The Ravens are 6-2 SU this year, with both losses coming on the road. Baltimore is 4-3-1 ATS this season, including 2-1-1 ATS on the road. The Ravens are 2-0-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season, a role in which they've relish. QB Joe Flacco will look to get the best of a friendly rivalry with Matt Ryan, as both were drafted in the same class. Flacco has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS this season with 12 TD's. Baltimore is averaging 21.9 PPG this season, thanks to a balanced offense. With a short week to prepare against an elite offense, the proud Ravens defense is going to have their work cut out. Baltimore is allowing just 17.4 PPG this season, 6th best in the league. The Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win. Baltimore is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Ravens are 18-6-2 ATS last 26 games as a road underdog up to a field goal.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a road underdog.
Key Injuries - S Tom Zbikowski (ankle) is questionable.
Projected Score: 24
FALCONS: (-1, O/U 43) Atlanta will be putting their unbeaten home winning streak on the line tonight, as they battle one of the Super Bowl favorites. Atlanta is 6-2 SU this year, including 4-0 SU at home. QB Matt Ryan is 17-1 SU lifetime at home, a clear indication this team plays with a great deal of confidence at home. The Falcons are just 2-2 ATS at home this year, with all but 1 of those games coming as a single digit favorite. This will be the 3rd consecutive home game for Atlanta, an added benefit considering the short week. Atlanta is averaging 24.5 PPG this year, while only giving up 19.3 PPG defensively. Ryan has thrown for nearly 1,950 YDS this year, including 13 TD's. The Falcons are also averaging 136.5 rushing YPG, 6th best in the NFL. The Falcons are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite. Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. The Falcons are 8-19-1 ATS in their last 28 home games against a team with a winning road record.
Falcons are 8-2 ATS last 10 games following an ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games against a team with a winning record.
Key Injuries - WR Roddy White (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 27 (OVER-Total of the Day)