NFL News and Notes Thursday 11/18

MIAMI (4 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 5)

Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 over the last 3 seasons.
CAROLINA is 54-30 ATS (+21.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MIAMI vs. CAROLINA
Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Miami is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

MIAMI at CAROLINA
MIAMI: 0-7 ATS in non-conference games
CAROLINA: 33-12 Under off division win

Dolphins (4-5) @ Panthers (4-5)-- Carolina is 4-2 since its bye, with three of wins by 7+ points, but they're 0-2 as home favorite. Dolphins are 1-3 away from home (2-2 as road dog), losing road games by 12-10-10 points. Four of Miami's five losses are by 10+ points. NFC South favorites are 9-3 vs spread in non-division games, 6-2 at home. AFC East underdogs are 3-8, 3-4 on road. Five of last six Miami games went over the total. Brown's injury is huge for Miami's Wildcat offense. Panthers ran ball for 270-182-185 yards last three weeks; they're 4-1 when they force 2+ turnovers, 0-4 when they don't. Miami turned the ball six times in its last six games.

What Bettors Need to Know: Dolphins at Panthers
By SCOTT COOLEY

The Wildcat is prowling onto a playing field near you.

The NFL Network jumpstarts Week 11 action with its second straight Thursday night football game when the Miami Dolphins (4-5, 4-5 ATS) head to Charlotte to take on the Carolina Panthers (4-5, 4-5 ATS).

Line movement

The spread opened at 3 in favor of the Panthers, but an injury to Ronnie Brown has added heavy juice to the line and even bumped it to 3.5 at some shops.

Sports Club founder Pete Korner said his sportsbook released the total at 45 because of the public’s tendency to play the over in primetime games. The total has been bet down to 42.5

Injury report

Miami’s leading rusher and best offensive player, Ronnie Brown, sustained a foot injury last week and will miss the game against Carolina. Backup Ricky Williams will start in his place.

Panthers’ reserve running back Jonathan Stewart has been nursing an Achilles injury and has yet to practice this week, but is expected to play.

Weather or not

The forecast calls for mostly cloudy skies with a 20 percent chance of light showers and wind out of the northwest from 5-10 mph. Temperature at kickoff is expected to be 59 degrees.

What Brown can’t do for you

Ronnie Brown is a key component of the Dolphins offense, but Ricky Williams has quietly become one of the most undervalued running backs in the league over the last two seasons.

In Miami’s last five games, Brown rushed for 279 yards and four touchdowns. During that same span, Williams rumbled for 310 yards and four scores and is averaging 5.3 yards per carry this season.

"This guy has worked like crazy for the year and a half that we've been here,” said head coach Tony Sparano. “Watching him work the way he works, you wouldn't think he's 30-plus years old. We're talking about a guy that led the league in rushing at one point. He gets it; he knows what he has to do."

Sparano was mum on whether or not Williams would run the Wildcat. Williams did take two snaps in the formation last Sunday against Tampa Bay.

While the Wildcat is the staple of Miami’s offense, the team is not nearly as one-dimensional since Chad Henne took over under center.

Henne has started six games this season and the Dolphins have posted a 4-2 straight up and ATS record in that time frame while averaging 29.2 points per game.

Sweet Carolin-a

Three weeks into the season, Jake Delhomme appeared to be on the brink of a benching and Steve Smith was as disgruntled as T.O. on the sidelines.

Things are much better these days in Pantherland. Carolina is 4-2 over its last six games, but just 3-3 against the number.

"Anytime your passing game struggles, I think numbers drop,” head coach John Fox stated. “We went into a funk there for the first month of the season, but I think we've got on track, and we obviously have a stiff test this week."

After averaging 12.3 ppg during the first month of the season, the Panthers are registering 23.2 ppg since. Getting dynamic receiver Smith involved in the offense has been a big part of that turnaround.

Smith caught a pair of touchdowns last week before leaving the game with injured ribs. He did return in the second half, but you have to wonder if his health and attitude are 100 percent every time he steps on the field.

Trendy solutions

Miami is 4-1 ATS in this series dating back to 1998.

Carolina is 4-0 ATS in their last four November games.

Under is 6-2 in Panthers last eight November home games.

Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last seven games as a road underdog.

Miami (4-5 SU and ATS) at Carolina (4-5 SU and ATS)

Two teams looking to get back to .500 square off when the Dolphins travel to Bank of America Stadium for a non-conference clash with the Panthers.

Miami let a 19-6 halftime lead slip away Sunday against Tampa Bay, giving up a pair of fourth-quarter TDs to fall behind 23-22 before rallying for a 25-23 victory on a field goal in the waning seconds. The Dolphins failed to cash as a hefty 10-point home chalk, after covering in four of their previous five games (3-2 SU).

Miami racked up 199 rushing yards against the Bucs, with Ricky Williams (20 carries, 102 yards) and Ronnie Brown (12 carries, 82 yards, 1 TD) doing the bulk of the work. The Dolphins have the league’s fourth-best rushing attack for the year (156.2 ypg), but Brown – the catalyst for the Miami’s “Wildcat” offense – suffered an injured right foot in the win and has been ruled out for tonight.

Carolina dropped visiting Atlanta 28-19 Sunday as a one-point underdog to cover for the third straight week (2-1 SU), and it was also the first time in four tries this year that the Panthers cashed at home. QB Jake Delhomme was miserable in the first six games of the year, committing 15 turnovers (13 INTs, two fumbles), but over the past three weeks, he’s got three TD passes and no INTs.

Perhaps no coincidence, Delhomme has gotten a lot of help lately from RB DeAngelo Williams, who has 640 rushing yards and five TDs over the past five weeks, including three games of 149 yards or more. In fact, the Panthers are one spot ahead of the Dolphins on the rushing list, averaging 156.6 ypg, and they had 185 in Sunday’s win over the Falcons.

These squads have met just three times in regular-season play since 1998, with Miami going 3-0 SU and ATS. Most recently, the Dolphins earned a 27-24 home win as a three-point pup in September 2005. In a preseason meeting this past August, Miami won 27-17 as a 2½-point home chalk.

The Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 on the highway and 7-2 ATS in their last nine as a road pup, but they shoulder negative pointspread streaks of 7-19-1 against losing teams, 2-5 in November and 5-11-3 as an underdog of three points or less. The Panthers had failed to cash in four straight home games prior to the win over the Falcons and they’re still just 2-5 ATS in their last seven as a home chalk. On the positive end, Carolina is on pointspread surges of 4-1 overall, 4-0 in November and 6-0-1 laying three points or less.

The over has hit in five of six overall for Miami and is on an 11-5 run for the Dolphins against losing teams. Conversely, coach Tony Sparano’s troops are also on “under” stretches of 9-3 in November, 15-5 after a SU win, 4-1 on the highway and 6-1 as a road pup.

The over has been the play in five of Carolina’s last six November outings, but otherwise the Panthers are on “under” rolls of 14-6 at home and 4-0 as a home favorite.

ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER

Miami at Carolina
By Brian Edwards

After losing its first three games, Carolina (4-5 straight up, 4-5 against the spread) has won four of its last six to climb back into contention in the NFC wild-card race. The Panthers garnered a crucial NFC South win last week by taking out the Falcons by a 28-19 count. They took the cash as one-point home underdogs.

The 47 combined points jumped ‘over’ the 43 ½-point total thanks to Jonathan Stewart’s 45-yard touchdown scamper with just 2:07 left. It was Stewart’s second TD run of the day. He and DeAngelo Williams combined for 174 yards on the ground via 30 rushing attempts.

Jake Delhomme completed 15-of-24 passes for 195 yards and a pair of touchdowns without being intercepted. Although Delhomme still has an abysmal 7/13 touchdown-interception ratio for the season, he hasn’t been picked off in three consecutive games. The result has been a 3-0 ATS run and a pair of outright wins over likely playoff teams in Arizona and Atlanta.

Steve Smith was the recipient of both scoring strikes from Delhomme last week. However, the perennial All-Pro WR sustained bruised ribs on the second TD grab. Nevertheless, Smith is “probable” on the injury report.

Miami (4-5 SU, 4-5 ATS) is also in striking distance in the AFC wild-card hunt, although it is two games back of the co-leaders, Pittsburgh and San Diego. On the flip side, Carolina is just one game back of the four teams (Falcons, Eagles, Giants and Packers) tied for the two NFC spots.

The Dolphins nearly suffered what would have been a colossal collapse at home last week against Tampa Bay. But thanks to Dan Carpenter’s game-winning field goal from 25 yards out with 10 ticks remaining, quarterback Chad Henne was taken off the hook for a horrible interception that had set the Bucs up with a go-ahead score just moments before Carpenter’s heroics.

Tony Sparano’s team won a 25-23 decision over the Bucs, who easily cashed tickets as 10-point road underdogs. Ricky Williams ran for 102 yards on 20 carries, including a long run that set up Carpenter’s game-winning boot. Ronnie Brown had 82 rushing yards and a TD on just 12 carries, but he left the game with an ankle injury that will keep him in street clothes Thursday in Charlotte.

Henne completed 17-of-31 passes for 175 yards and one TD, a five-yard connection to Kory Sperry late in the second quarter. His lone pick, however, was nearly a lethal one. With Miami at its own 25 with a 22-16 advantage at the 1:52 mark, Henne was intercepted on a third-and-seven play.

Four plays later, Cadillac Williams bullied his way into the end zone to give Tampa Bay the lead. But Henne would make amends with a pair of nice throws to move the ‘Fins into Bucs’ territory, and then Williams ripped off a 27-yard run to set up the winning kick.

With Brown out, Williams will get the starting nod for the first time since late last season. For the season, Williams has been as potent as any back-up RB in the league. He has 105 carries for 558 rushing yards and six touchdowns. The former Heisman Trophy winner at Texas is averaging 5.3 yards per carry.

After starting LB Joey Porter missed last week’s win over the Bucs, the veteran is expected to be in the lineup this week. There has been some confusion about whether Porter was out due to knee and/or hamstring injuries or if he was benched. Porter, who has just 10 tackles, two assists and 2 ½ sacks in 2009, declined to discuss the matter with the media on Tuesday.

Miami TE Anthony Fasano (hip) and DB Gibril Wilson (hamstring) are listed as “questionable.” As for Carolina, it is extremely healthy for this time of year with the exception of RB Brad Hoover, who is “out.”

With a strong running game led by Williams and Stewart, John Fox’s team could be poised for a strong second-half push if Delhomme can continue to play like he has in recent weeks. The Panthers won convincingly at Arizona by a 34-21 score three weeks ago and then led at New Orleans for much of the game before losing 30-20 as 12 ½-point road underdogs.

For the season, Williams has 860 rushing yards and seven TDs for an average of 5.1 YPC. Stewart averages 4.8 YPC and has found paydirt six times on the ground. Smith has a team-high 38 catches for 512 yards and three TDs.

Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Carolina as a three-point favorite with a total of 44 ½. As of early Wednesday afternoon, most betting shops were resistant to coming off the key number of three, instead forcing bettors to lay double juice (a minus-120 price) to back the Panthers. That makes wagers on the Dolphins plus three for even-money. The ‘Fins are plus-155 to win outright (risk $100 to win $155).

Carolina owns a 2-2 SU record and 1-3 ATS mark at home this season. The Panthers are 0-2 ATS as single-digit home ‘chalk.’ Miami is 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS on the road.

The ‘over’ is 6-3 overall for the ‘Fins, but they have seen the ‘under’ cash at a 3-1 clip in their road assignments. With that said, the ‘over’ is 5-1 in Miami’s last six games (regardless of venue). Meanwhile, Carolina has watched the ‘over’ go 5-4 overall, 2-2 in its home games.

The NFL Network will have the telecast at 8:20 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--The ‘under’ is 14-6 in Carolina’s last 20 home games.

--Henne has a 5/4 TD-INT ratio for the season.

--As we move into late November, Cleveland has scored six points or less in six of its nine games. For the season, the Browns have just five offensive touchdowns, while the New Orleans defense has scored six TDs. I don’t know if the historical stats prove it out, but I’m without a doubt ready to call the Browns’ offense the worst I’ve ever seen in NFL history.

--I have to give props to St. Louis RB Steven Jackson, who is running hard and with authority every week despite playing on an atrocious team. Jackson is fourth in the NFL in rushing yards (915) and is averaging 4.8 YPC. He has toted the rock at least 16 times in each game.

--The Bengals have been incredible as underdogs this year, compiling a 6-0 record both SU and ATS in such spots. On the other hand, they are an abysmal 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS when favored. Cincy is a 9 ½-point road ‘chalk’ Sunday at Oakland.

vegasinsider.com.

Betting your favorite NFL running team Thursday
By Doug Upstone

For any team with a smashmouth running attack, it stands to reason that a strong offensive line and group of running backs would be key. So it's easy to see why Carolina and Miami might be in a little trouble when they square off in Week 11. The Panthers lost starting left tackle Jordan Gross to a broken ankle in last week's 28-19 win over Atlanta, while the status of Dolphins Ronnie Brown is officially listed as doubtful. The Wildcat stud left last week's 25-23 win over Tampa Bay in the third quarter with an ankle injury, though Ricky Williams more than picked up the slack with 102 yards on 20 carries.

Miami and Carolina have met just three times previously and not in Carolina since 1998. The Dolphins swept all three prior meetings, both SU and ATS, holding the Panthers to just 39 points. The fourth meeting could be the deathblow to the loser's postseason hopes for 2009.

Both teams are 4-5 SU and ATS after nine games and currently on the outside of the playoff picture looking in. Miami has lost three of its four games on the road this season, but that road has been a treacherous one, as all four opponents have a winning record at this point. Under coach Tony Sparano, the Fins are 0-7 ATS when squaring off vs. NFC foes.

Miami's defense was picked apart late in last week's game by rookie Josh Freeman for a pair of touchdowns and were bailed out by quarterback Chad Henne's game-saving field goal dive that secured the win over the Bucs. The Dolphins arrive in Carolina 7-19-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.

Carolina stumbled out of the gate with a 0-3 start but has rebounded with victories in four of the last six, due in large part to much-improved play by veteran quarterback Jake Delhomme. In the first three games he threw two touchdowns with seven interceptions, but coming out of the win over the Falcons has now gone interception-free for three in a row. The rededication to the running game has also helped.

DeAngelo Williams has run for 640 yards and five touchdowns over the last five games, while Jonathan Stewart's numbers are equally impressive (328 yards, five touchdowns). The loss of Gross for the balance of the season is a big one, but it didn't hurt the ground attack right off the bat. The two still combined for 174 yards against the Falcons last week.

Carolina is only 2-2 at home with one cover and is 0-5 ATS in November off a division upset as underdog. BetUS.com has Carolina as three-point favorites, with total of 42.5. This could be a situational wagering conflict. The Panthers are 15-5 ATS vs. poor passing teams like Miami (30th) averaging 175 or less passing yards a game in the second half of the season. While Miami is 9-23 ATS versus rushing teams like Carolina (3rd) averaging 130 or more rushing yards a game after the midpoint of the season.

This is NFL Network telecast which begins at 8:20 Eastern. With Miami's defense allowing 25.2 points per game, it should be noted that the Panthers are 41-17 ATS vs. teams allowing 24 or more per outing.

Sweet Carolina
By SportsPic

Carolina Panthers off a critical triumph over the NFC South rival Falcons last Sunday moving the mark to 4-5 (4-5 ATS) and just a game back in the conference wild card race will host the Miami Dolphins at Bank of America Stadium on Thursday night. Things have gotten much better these days for Carolina, Delhomme has hit 39-of-68 passes for 3 TD's and believe it or not NO PICKS the past three games. Panthers ground game also improved over the span with Williams averaging 133.0 RYG with 2TD's while Stewart has ground out 64.3 RYG and 4 majors. Meanwhile, Dolphins needing a game-winning final drive to defeat Bucs last week also enter 4-5 (4-5 ATS) but Dolphins chances at a second season seeding took a huge blow as they lost RB Ronnie Brown to a foot injury in the victory. Dolphins without their key offensive component have been pegged 3-point underdogs. It is well to note Dolphins have not performed well as underdogs of 3.0 or less going 6-12-3 ATS and have not had much success at the betting window vs the NFC South going 2-6-2 ATS. Panthers on the other hand are a cash stuffing 11-3-1 against-the-number laying 3.0 or less, 4-2 ATS last six vs AFC East opponents.

Tips and Trends

Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

Dolphins: Miami must be a bit tired, as this is their 3rd road game in 19 days. The good news is the Dolphins have won ATS both road games during this stretch. The Dolphins rush for more than 155 YPG, which is 4th in the NFL. They will have to make due without Ronnie Brown, as he's out for the year. RB Ricky Williams and QB Chad Henne will need to step up and lead this offense. The Dolphins are struggling on defense, as they can't stop the run. Opponents have rushed for more than 100 YDS in 5 consecutive games, which has caused Dolphins games to go over in 5 of the past 6 games.

Dolphins are 7-2 ATS last 9 games as a road underdog.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games as a road underdog.

Key Injuries - RB Ronnie Brown (ankle) is out.
S Gibril Wilson (hamstring) is questionable.

PROJECTED SCORE: 17

Panthers (-3, O/U 42.5): Very quietly the Panthers have won 4 of 6 games SU. They've also won ATS in 4 of their past 5 games. Their rushing game has been amazing, as they've rushed for at least 180 YDS in 4 of their last 5 games. Carolina is 3rd in the NFL in rushing yards, less than a yard ahead of Miami. RB DeAngelo Williams is 4th in the NFL in rushing yards, and heads a running back committee that includes Jonathan Stewart. Carolina has played good defense of late, as they've forced 10 turnovers over the past 3 games. They've also limited their opponents rushing game, holding teams under 100 YDS rushing in 3 of their last 4 games.

Panthers are 6-0-1 ATS last 7 games as a favorite up to -3.
Under is 4-0 last 4 games as a home favorite.

Key Injuries - RB DeAngelo Williams (knee) is questionable.
T Jordan Gross (leg) is out.

PROJECTED SCORE: 21 (UNDER - Total of the Day)