Bears at Dolphins: What Bettors Need to Know
By Ben Burns.
What does it mean when Miami, which is expected to start third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen, is still favored over a surging Chicago team?
The handicapper that correctly answers that question will boost his bankroll in Thursday’s matchup between Bears (6-3, 4-4-1 ATS) and Dolphins (5-4, 5-4 ATS) at Sun Life Stadium in Miami.
Thigpen is expected to get the nod ahead of banged-up Chad Henne, who did not practice Tuesday, the Dolphins’ only day to prepare for the Bears.
It’s been suggested that Thigpen is the better choice even if Henne was healthy. Thigpen stepped in late last week against the Titans after starter Chad Pennington and Henne were knocked out of the game. He promptly completed 4 of 6 passes for 64 yards, including a clinching fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Anthony Fasano in an impressive 29-17 win.
But can the former Chiefs quarterback, with only a handful of career starts under his belt, put four quarters together against the Bears’ second-ranked defense?Devin Hester.
Chicago has won two straight and is aware that a win would move them into sole possession of first place in the NFC North.
The Bears’ defense is playing well and managed to hold Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson to just 51 yards in last week’s win over the Vikings. The offense, behind quarterback Jay Cutler, has picked it up.
Devin Hester is becoming more of a factor as a receiver and is still making big plays in the return game. Hester set up two scores with long kick returns and caught one of Cutler’s three touchdown passes.
The Bears are playing good football, but so is Miami; hence, the tiny pointspread.
The Line
There’s plenty of debate about this number. The Dolphins opened as high as 2.5-point favorites and as low as a Pick. After Tuesday’s announcement that Thigpen was likely to start, the number settled at -1.5, with a sprinkling of -1s out there.
The Dolphins are 6-25 ATS in their last 31 games as a home favorite.
The Total
The Total opened at 39.5 and had been bumped up to 40 as of Wednesday afternoon.
The Dolphins average 19.1 and allow 21.3 points per game. The Bears average 19.4 and allow 16.2 points per game.
There is a 20-percent chance of evening showers in Miami, with temperatures expected to be in the low 70s.
The two teams have not played since 2006, when the Dolphins won 31-13. Obviously, that means very little tonight.
The under is 59-28-2 in the Bears last 89 games as an underdog.
The over is 10-1-1 in the Dolphins last 12 home games.
Injury Report
Quarterbacks aren’t the only thing banged-up for the Dolphins. Starting left tackle Jake Long will not be at 100 percent trying to protect Thigpen Thursday. Long suffered what’s being called a significant shoulder injury last week against the Titans, but practiced Tuesday and is expected to start his 42nd straight game.
The Bears list six players on their injury report, including three wide receivers. But early reports have the Bears expecting to have all their weapons available in Miami.
Bears at Dolphins
By Kevin Rogers
The second Thursday night game of the season comes from South Florida as the 5-4 Dolphins play host to the 6-3 Bears. Both teams are fresh off home victories last week, but Chicago enters this matchup as the healthier team against a beat-up Miami squad.
The Dolphins went through four quarterbacks last week (if you count Brandon Marshall throwing an incomplete pass in the third quarter). Veteran Chad Pennington was thrown into the starting role in place of Chad Henne to help jump-start a Dolphins' offense that had become stagnant in the red zone. Pennington didn't last more than three plays, as the former Jets' quarterback was knocked out with a right shoulder injury. Henne came into the game and led Miami to a touchdown on the opening drive, but he eventually was lost for the game with a knee injury.
After the Chads headed to the locker room, ex-Chief Tyler Thigpen marched the Dolphins on a nine-play, 85-yard drive that ended in a touchdown pass to Anthony Fasano and a 29-17 victory for Miami as one-point favorites. Thigpen is set to make his 11th career start, but went just 1-9 in 10 starts with Kansas City during the 2008 season. The positive for the Dolphins is Thigpen brings in a running dynamic under center, which is something that lacked with Pennington and Henne. However, the Miami running game has taken a huge hit since ranking 4th last season, as the Dolphins are sitting 19th in the league on the ground (104 yds/game).
The Bears picked up their second straight win following consecutive home defeats to the Seahawks and Redskins, as Chicago knocked off Minnesota, 27-13. Jay Cutler overcame a pair of interceptions by throwing three touchdown passes, including the clinching score to backup tight end Kellen Davis on third and short. The Chicago defense stepped up in the second half by intercepting Brett Favre three times, while limiting the Vikings to just three points.
Lovie Smith's squad has beaten only one team that currently sits above .500, coincidentally the co-leader of their division in the Green Bay Packers back in Week 3. The Bears have taken care of business against lower-tier competition, but have also lost to 5-4 Seattle and 4-5 Washington. The key for Chicago has been the defense, which has held opponents to 17 points or less six times, but four of those instances came at Soldier Field.
Tony Sparano has not been a great pointspread play at home since his arrival in 2008, going 7-14 ATS and 11-10 SU. Another strike against the Dolphins is their 3-9 ATS ledger under Sparano at home against teams off a victory. On the flip side, the Bears are 2-9-1 ATS since 2008 when receiving points on the road (1-1 this season).
Miami owns probably the toughest home schedule through four games with losses to the Jets, Patriots, and Steelers, prior to the win over Tennessee. The Dolphins have been a terrific 'over' play at home by cashing in all four contests at Sun Life Stadium. The 'over/under' for this non-conference matchup is hovering around 40 points and some folks believe the number could be too low, including VegasInsider.com's Chris David.
He said, "I was a little surprised that the number isn't higher considering the 'over' is perfect for Miami at home (4-0) this season. But then you notice that the Bears have watched the 'under' go 7-2 on the season."
"One key to cashing 'over' tickets is getting big plays and converting in the red zone with touchdowns rather than field goals. This season, the Fins have 14 touchdowns, yet 22 field goals, which tell you a lot about the offense." Miami kicker Dan Carpenter is tied with Oakland's Sebastian Janikowski for the most field goals made in the NFL, as Carpenter has hit all 12 attempts from inside 40 yards.
"Gamblers betting 'over' wagers this season have watched those tickets hit at an eye opening 58 percent, which is nuts. Will it continue? Some believe so with poor weather on the horizon, but that won't play a factor in South Florida for this matchup," David says.
The 'under' was on pace in last Thursday's game between the Ravens and Falcons with Atlanta leading, 13-7 heading into the final quarter. Thanks to an offensive explosion (or a defensive implosion), the two clubs combined for 27 points and crushing 'under' 43 ½ tickets. Why that's relevant for this contest is the 'under' is riding a 7-2 run on Thursdays since last season, including a 10-6 loss by the Bears at San Francisco as 3 ½-point 'dogs.
The Dolphins are listed as a 1½-point favorite at most spots, while the total is set between 39½ and 40. The game will be nationally televised on NFL Network and will kick off at 8:20 PM EST.
vegasinsider.com
NFL odds favor Dolphins despite QB injuries
By: Stephen Nover
Welcome to another round of As the Quarterbacks Turn.
The setting is Miami where the Dolphins host the Chicago Bears on Thursday night at 5:20 p.m. PT with the NFL Network televising.
The Dolphins won’t have Chad Pennington, nor are they likely to have Chad Henne, leaving Tyler Thigpen as the man. Pennington suffered another shoulder injury to his right arm that is season-ending and could end his career. Pennington had just been named the starter during practice last week. Henne is on crutches after going down with a knee injury leaving Thigpen as the last man standing.
Thigpen, however, just may be the best third-string quarterback in the league. He started 11 games for Kansas City just two years ago.
The NFL oddsmaker has taken this into account by still opening Miami the favorite at minus 1 ½ with an ‘over/under’ of 39 ½.
This is quite a compliment to Thigpen since the Bears have an underrated defense, the Dolphins are a below average 5-7 straight-up and ATS in their last 12 home contests and also are likely to be missing franchise offensive left tackle Jake Long, who suffered a shoulder injury this past Sunday.
Despite all these injuries, the Dolphins still knocked off Tennessee, 29-17, as one-point home favorites with the combined 46 points going ‘over’ the 43-point total. It was the first time this year the Dolphins had generated three touchdowns on offense in a game.
“That’s the thing about this league – anything can happen,” wide receiver Davone Bess was quoted as saying in the Miami Herald. “It’s a matter of how you react and how you handle these situations.”
It’s not a stretch to say the Bears can expect a lot of Ronnie Brown, Ricky Williams and Miami’s Wildcat formation offense.
“The people that you have handling the ball there you really trust with Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams,” Dolphins coach Tony Sparano was quoted as saying.
The Bears haven’t given up more than 23 points in a game all season. They’ve held seven of their nine foes to 19 points or less and have surrendered a league-low six touchdown passes.
There could be more respect for Thigpen considering on Monday the Dolphins tried out a number of recycled quarterbacks, including Patrick Ramsey, JaMarcus Russell, J.T. O’Sullivan and Tom Brandstater before deciding on Ramsey as their probable backup.
The 5-4 Dolphins are trying to catch AFC East-leading New England and the New York Jets, both of whom are 7-2. Until defeating the Titans, Miami had defeated only one team that had a winning mark and that was Green Bay in overtime.
Chicago is tied on top of the NFC North standings with Green Bay at 6-3. The Bears defeated Minnesota, 27-13, as one-point home favorites. The combined 40 points dipped ‘under’ the 41-point total.
The Bears limited Adrian Peterson to a season-low 51 yards rushing on 17 carries. Jay Cutler, who already has cracked the Bears’ all-time top 10 in touchdown passes despite only being in his second season with Chicago, threw three touchdown passes.
Perhaps the big story for the Bears, though, was Devin Hester. He caught four passes for 38 yards and a touchdown, while also contributing 147 return yards. The Dolphins have had problems on special teams. They already on their second special teams coach.
Chicago has won straight-up during four of the past five times they’ve been underdogs. Miami is 6-10 ATS the last 16 times it has been ‘chalk.’
The ‘under’ has cashed in six of Chicago’s last seven games, including the past three.
The weather forecast is for partly cloudy skies with temperatures in the 60s and seven mph winds.
Bears (6-3) @ Dolphins (5-4) - Chicago returns to scene of its Super Bowl loss for first time on short week after beating division rival Vikings; Bears are 3-1 on road, with only loss at Giants, when Cutler was sacked nine times in first half. Miami is crippled at QB; Pennington is out, 3rd-stringer Thigpen likely to start with Henne a question to be able to back him up (Fish signed Patrick Ramsey to be #3 QB). Dolphins got first home win in four tries last week vs. Titans. Bears are 6-1 if they score more than 14 points; Miami is allowing average of 28 peg in its four home games. Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Chicago games, but 0-4 in Miami’s home games.
Tips and Trends
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins
BEARS: Chicago looked very impressive last week in beating the Vikings 27-13 SU. That win put the Bears 6-3 SU on the season, and in 1st place in the NFC South division. Chicago has played well on the road this year, going 3-1 SU and 2-1-1 ATS. The Bears are 3-1 both SU and ATS as the listed underdog this year. QB Jay Cutler has been able to manage the Bears offense since coming off their bye week 3 weeks ago. For the season, Cutler has thrown for more than 1,900 YDS and 12 TD's. The Bears are averaging 19.4 PPG this season, but if Cutler can continue to avoid costly mistakes, the sky is the limit in this offense. Only 1 opponent has scored more than 20 PTS against the Bears this season. The Bears are allowing just 16.2 PPG this year, 2nd fewest in the NFL. The Bears are 10-21-2 ATS in their last 33 games following a SU win. Chicago is 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played on grass. The Bears are 2-7 ATS against a team with a winning record. Chicago is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. The Bears are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog. Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 road games against a team with a winning home record. The Bears are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 Thursday games overall.
Bears are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.
Key Injuries - TE Desmond Clark (neck) is questionable.
Projected Score: 16
DOLPHINS: (-1, O/U 39.5) Miami might have won the battle against the Titans last week, but they certainly didn't win the war. The Dolphins beat the Titans 29-17 SU, yet they sustained injuries to 2 QB's and to T Jake Long. Miami is likely to rely on the Wildcat exclusively tonight, in response to the QB injuries to both Chad Pennington and Chad Henne. The Dolphins are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS overall this season. Miami is 3-2 ATS as the listed favorite this season. Unfortunately, the Dolphins are just 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS at home this year. Miami is averaging just 19.1 PPG this season, the 2nd fewest of any team with a winning record. RB Ronnie Brown is averaging less than 4 YPC this year, and only has 3 TD's on the year. Miami is allowing 21.3 PPG to their opponents this season. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Dolphins are 7-3 ATS against a team with a winning record. Miami is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. The Dolphins are 10-27 ATS in their last 37 games as a favorite. Miami is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
Dolphins are 6-25 ATS last 31 games as a home favorite.
Under is 19-9 last 28 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - T Jake Long (shoulder) is probable.
Projected Score: 17 (UNDER-Total of the Day)