Thanksgiving Day Card
By Kevin Rogers
Thanksgiving Day Trends
The Thanksgiving Day card is loaded in the NFL with three games to wager on, as a busy sports weekend gets underway. The Jets look to keep up their winning ways against the struggling Bengals, while the Saints head to Texas to battle a surging Cowboys club. We'll begin in the Motor City with the red-hot Patriots going for their league-best ninth win of the season.
Patriots (-6½, 51) at Lions
New England continues to be the class of the AFC following last Sunday's 31-28 home victory over Indianapolis to improve to 8-2 on the season. The Pats hope to avoid a letdown spot when Bill Belichick's team travels to Ford Field to battle the 2-8 Lions in the early Thanksgiving tilt.
The Lions haven't helped their cause when playing on Turkey Day, dropping six straight games by double-digits. Granted, Detroit hasn't won more than seven games in a season since this cold streak began in 2004, but the Lions aren't putting up their best effort in this spot. The Lions faced a playoff team in each of the last three Thanksgiving games, falling to Green Bay in 2007 and 2009, while losing to Tennessee in 2008.
Detroit was handed only its third ATS loss of the season last week in a 35-19 setback at Dallas as five-point underdogs. The Lions are a perfect 4-0 ATS at Ford Field, including close losses to the Jets and Eagles. The 'over' has turned into a great play recently for Jim Schwartz's club, hitting in six of the past seven games.
The Patriots have also been a strong 'over' team of late, cashing in four straight contests. In New England's two losses, the Pats have been held to 14 points; in their eight victories, New England has scored at least 23 points. This isn't an automatic spot to back the Pats, who are in an interesting look-ahead spot with a home contest against the Jets next Sunday, while coming off the huge win over the Colts.
Saints (-4, 50) at Cowboys
Dallas is slowly waking up from the dead with back-to-back victories over the Giants and Lions to improve to 3-7. That may have something to do with the firing of Wade Phillips, but the Cowboys are trying to make this season somewhat respectable. Things will not ease up on Thanksgiving with the defending Super Bowl champion Saints invading Arlington.
New Orleans is fresh off three straight double-digit victories after the surprising home defeat to Cleveland. The Saints' offense is clicking by putting up 34 points in each of the last two weeks, while improving to 4-1 ATS the previous five weeks. Sean Payton's squad looks for revenge against the Cowboys after dropping a 24-17 decision at the Superdome last December to end a 13-0 run.
The Cowboys' offense finally got going with Jon Kitna under center by tallying 33 against the Giants and 35 against the Lions. The 'over' is riding a seven-game streak and that has more to do with the offense improving as opposed to the defense getting lit up in the prior five games. Dallas has won each of its last four Thanksgiving games by at least 17 points, including last season's 24-7 blowout of Oakland.
Bengals at Jets (-9, 43½)
New York keeps finding ways to win games while Cincinnati invents new ways to throw away games as the two teams hook up at the new Meadowlands. The Jets start the day tied with the Patriots atop the AFC East at 8-2, as New York rallied for a 30-27 victory over Houston last Sunday.
The Texans win was the third straight comeback victory for Rex Ryan's team, who beat their third straight under .500 team on the final possession. New York did blow a 23-7 lead to Houston, but couldn't cash tickets for backers as the Jets were laying 6 ½ points. The 'over' has profited nicely for the Jets, hitting in eight of the last nine games. New York is just 3-6 ATS under Ryan when laying at least 5 ½ points, but one of those wins came in the regular season finale last season against the Bengals, 37-0 as 9 ½-point 'chalk.'
The Bengals are playing with double-revenge after losing twice to the Jets in the span of a week last season, including the 24-14 home loss in the first round of the playoffs. Cincinnati was a great underdog play in 2009, but the Bengals own a 2-4 ATS mark this season when receiving points. Marvin Lewis' club squandered a 31-14 lead in a disappointing 49-31 setback to Buffalo last week as four-point favorites. The Bengals will be tested by this strong Jets' defense, as Cincinnati has scored 21 points or less in seven games this season.
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Total Talk - Thanksgiving Day
By Chris David
The NFL action starts early this week with its annual Thanksgiving Day slate. We’ll recap Week 11’s action, Bad Beats and much more in our weekly installment on Friday. In the meantime, let’s take a closer look at the three holiday games on tap and their totals. And keep in mind that before you continue to play this year’s ‘over’ trend, all three games went ‘under’ the number on Turkey Day last year so anything is possible.
Gamblers looking to get into all three totals can do so at Sportsbook.com and their Thanksgiving Day Grand Salami wager. You either bet the OVER or UNDER on the total points scored in all three games. The total is sitting at 145.5 points.
New England at Detroit (51)
The number in this contest is high but both New England (8-2) and Detroit (7-3) have been easy ‘over’ winners this season and it’s hard to argue against another high-scoring affair in the Turkey Day matinee. For starters, the Lions have watched all four of their home games go ‘over’ the number this season, largely due to an offense that has averaged 33.3 points per games in those outings. Plus, Detroit’s defense has given up an average of 22.3 PPG at Ford Field as well. And if you didn’t know, New England is averaging 28.9 PPG, which is ranked first. The club has seen three of their four road games go ‘over’ the number but the Pats’ offense was stifled to 14 points twice, both coming in losses to the Jets and Browns.
Bettors looking at the ‘under’ can point to Detroit’s recent offensive woes, which has produced 20, 12 and 19 points in the last three weeks. Also, the Lions have struggled offensively on Thanksgiving Day as well, scoring 12 points or less in five of the last six holiday battles. The ‘under’ has gone 6-2 in Detroit’s last eight on Thanksgiving. Most believe the Patriots and quarterback Tom Brady (19 TDs, 4 INTs) will get at least five scores, but can Shaun Hill (61.6%, 12 TDs, 9 INTs) do the same for the Lions?
New Orleans at Dallas (51)
Similar to the Pats and Lions, the Cowboys have been a clear-cut ‘over’ team this season as well. Dallas has watched the ‘over’ cash in seven straight and eight of 10 on the year. The club has lit up the scoreboard the past two weeks with solid performances against the Giants (33) and Lions (35), but they were helped with 14 points coming from the defense and special teams. Speaking of defense, the Dallas unit has looked better recently as well, surrendering 20 and 19 in its two wins. And that came after the club gave up an average of 35.8 PPG in the previous five weeks.
New Orleans was an offensive juggernaut last season but the explosive attack was missing in action during the first eight weeks (20.8 PPG) this year. Even though the Saints haven’t been able to match last year’s numbers, QB Drew Brees and the offense have posted 34 points in each of their last two wins. The one constant with New Orleans this season has been its defense, which is only allowing 17 PPG. And if you look at the two games they gave up 30 points in losses to both the Cardinals and Browns, 28 of those 60 points were defensive scores. Do the math folks – the Saints defense is technically allowing 14.2 PPG, which is the best in the NFL.
Dallas hasn’t had any issues on the holiday stage when it comes to putting up numbers. The Cowboys have put up 20-plus points in the last nine games played on Thanksgiving and that includes 30-plus in three of the previous four. Despite those numbers, the ‘under’ has gone 3-1 in their last four holiday contests.
Last year, the Cowboys stifled the Saints 24-17 at the Superdome and the combined 41 points never threatened the closing total of 53 ½.
Cincinnati at New York Jets (43.5)
The primetime tilt on Thanksgiving between the Jets and Bengals has the lowest total on the board and we're expected to see some poor weather for this matchup. Last year, New York beat Cincinnati in Week 17 (37-0) and then in the Wild Card round (24-14) of the playoffs the following week. Both of those games went ‘over’ the number but the totals (33.5, 34) weren’t exactly tough to eclipse.
New York’s defense is still considered a top unit in the league but that hasn’t stopped the ‘over’ from going 8-2. Cincinnati (6-4) has leaned toward the ‘over’ as well, largely due to its lack of defense. The Bengals have allowed 32 PPG in their last five and it could be worse if the Dolphins (22) and Colts (23) would’ve put touchdowns instead of a combined eight field goals between the pair.
Since the NFL added a third game on Thanksgiving Day during the 2006 season, the ‘over/under’ has gone 2-2 in the four installments.
Fearless Predictions
Best Over: New England-Detroit 51
Best Under: New Orleans-Dallas 51
Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100)
Over New England-Detroit 42
Under New Orleans-Dallas 60
Under Cincinnati-N.Y. Jets 52.5
Patriots at Lions: What bettors need to know
Set Up For A Letdown
If any team in the NFL is ripe for a letdown, it's the New England Patriots.
Fresh off back-to-back wins over the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts, the Patriots have a quick turnaround as they hit the road to pay a visit to the Detroit Lions on Thursday.
On paper, it looks like a cakewalk for New England (8-2), which is tied for first place in the AFC East and is facing a Lions team with the second-worst record (2-8) in the NFC.
Not to mention Detroit is down to its second-string quarterback and might be forced to start its third-string tailback for its traditional Thanksgiving Day matchup.
Of course, Patriots coach Bill Belichick can quell any feelings of overconfidence by reminding his team what happened the last time it faced a seemingly overmatched opponent on the road.
New England got run over by Peyton Hillis and the Cleveland Browns 34-14 on Nov. 7, a lopsided defeat that snapped a five-game winning streak.
Even if they have one, it might be tough to lose to Detroit.
The Patriots go into Thursday’s game with an 8-2 record following wins over Pittsburgh and Indianapolis. The Lions enter their annual Thanksgiving Day home game at 2-8 after losses to Buffalo, which entered that game winless, and Dallas, which had just two victories at the time.
New England coach Bill Belichick said the Lions’ familiarity with the traditional holiday game should help them.
Not enough, apparently. Detroit has lost its past six Thanksgiving matchups by an average of 23 points, none by fewer than 11.
Never one to let complacency creep in, Belichick is stressing to his players that five of the Lions losses this season have been by five points or fewer.
“He really stays on top of us,” wide receiver Wes Welker told the Detroit Free Press of coach Belichick, “and makes sure that were not getting overconfident or believing in the noise outside the locker room and understand that every game’s tough in the NFL.”
Better Than You Think
The Lions are not the pushovers that their record indicates. Four of their losses have been by three points or less, and they had the New York Jets - co-AFC East leaders with the Patriots - on the ropes before blowing a 10-point lead in the last three minutes of regulation and losing in overtime on Nov. 7.
Detroit is coming off its third consecutive defeat, a 35-19 loss in Dallas in which it trailed by two points entering the fourth quarter.
With a non-existent running game due to injuries to rookie Jahvid Best, quarterback Shaun Hill has been forced to throw the ball 97 times in the last two weeks. Best, who is dealing with turf toe in both feet, may sit out Thursday. Maurice Morris is expected to start in his place.
Making his second straight start in place of an injured Matthew Stafford, Hill was 32 of 47 for 289 yards with two touchdowns and an interception against the Cowboys.
Wide receiver Calvin Johnson has been the one constant for the Lions. He has 55 receptions for 725 yards and 10 touchdowns – nine of them coming in the last seven games.
Tom Terrific
Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is coming off consecutive superb outings. He was an economical 19 of 25 for 186 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the 31-28 victory over the Colts.
In the previous week’s 39-26 blowout of the Steelers in Pittsburgh, Brady threw for 350 yards and three touchdowns. He had not been intercepted in three straight games and has been picked off only four times against 19 scoring passes.
New England’s running game turned in one of its better efforts of the season with BenJarvus Green-Ellis rushing for 96 yards on 21 carries and Danny Woodhead chipping in with 69 yards on seven rushes. Each found the end zone as well.
Trends
The over is a combined 15-5 in New England and Detroit games this season.
The Pats are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games as road favorites.
The Lions are 4-0 ATS in their home games and 6-0 ATS in their last six games against teams with winning records.
Game of the day: Saints at Cowboys
By Ben Burns.
The Saints march into Dallas for one of the more intriguing Thanksgiving Day games in recent memory.
The defending champs appear to have shaken off any lasting Super Bowl hangover and arrive at Cowboys Stadium having won three straight. Drew Brees is coming off a four-touchdown performance, and the Saints (7-3, 5-5 ATS) hope to have Reggie Bush back in the lineup. That’s bad news for a Dallas defense, which has struggled in all facets this season.
The New Orleans defense has been spectacular and is getting healthy. The Saints are fourth in the NFL in points (17) and yards (291) allowed and have been especially stingy against the pass, allowing only 186 yards per game.
Like the Saints, things also are looking up for the Cowboys (3-7, 3-7 ATS), who have won two straight since coach Wade Phillips was replaced by Jason Garrett.
Dallas’ offense has found new life behind quarterback Jon Kitna. The longtime backup has distributed the ball to the Cowboys’ plethora of weapons, most notably wide receivers Miles Austin and Dez Bryant and emerging running back Felix Jones. The result has been a much more potent offense that has averaged 34 points in back-to-back wins over the Giants and Lions.
The Cowboys whipped the then-13-0 Saints last season in New Orleans, but have lost three of the last four in the series dating back to 2003.
Statistically, the Saints are by far the superior team. They rank higher than the Cowboys in nearly every statistical category. But, for the past two weeks, Dallas has looked like a different team than the one that compiled those subpar stats. Plus, America’s Team is at home on Thanksgiving, a situation the Cowboys have covered the spread in four straight.
The Line
The Saints opened as 3-point road favorites, but it was quickly bet up to 3.5 with several 4’s on the board as of Wednesday.
New Orleans has played well on the road and has covered the spread 10 of its last 12 road games against teams with a losing home record. Dallas is 1-4 straight up at home this season.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five Thursday games and 15-5 ATS in their 20 November games.
The Total
The total opened at 50.5 and had moved to 51 early in the week.
The Saints are averaging 23.5 and allowing 17 points per game. The Cowboys are scoring 22.9 and allowing 27.1.
The previous four meetings between the Saints and Cowboys have averaged 40 points per game.
The last seven games involving the Cowboys have gone over the total.
Injuries
Both teams are banged-up at the running back position.
For Dallas, Jones is day-to-day, trying to recover from a hip injury that forced him to leave Sunday’s game against the Lions. He did return in that game and questionable to play Thursday, but the short week didn’t help his cause. He did not participate in Tuesday’s practice.
The Saints hope to have Bush back for the first time since Week 2, when he broke a bone in his leg. Pierre Thomas, however, isn’t expected to play with an ankle injury that caused him to miss the last two months. To make things worse, running back Ladell Betts also is banged-up and missed Tuesday’s practice.
The Saints listed seven players on its injury report that had limited participation in this week’s practice.
Bengals at Jets: What Bettors Need to Know
Too Close For Comfort
The New York Jets may be able to skip their Houdini act this week. It helps when the opponent has already disappeared.
The Jets will look to stay atop the AFC East when they go for their fourth consecutive victory against the reeling Cincinnati Bengals on Thanksgiving Day at the New Meadowlands Stadium.
The Jets have been living on the edge this month, registering three straight teeth-gnashing victories, including back-to-back overtime victories at Cleveland and Detroit.
New York extended the winning streak to three Sunday by rallying for a last-second 30-27 victory over the Houston Texans. Mark Sanchez's 6-yard scoring pass to Santonio Holmes with 10 seconds to play provided the margin of victory.
It didn’t appear any late theatrics would be needed after the Jets went ahead 23-7 nine seconds into the fourth quarter, but Houston ripped off 20 unanswered points, forcing Sanchez to drive New York 72 yards in the final 49 seconds for the winning touchdown.
The Texans’ fourth-quarter comeback underscored some of the problems of the Jets’ defense, which has allowed just five of their last six opponents to score at least put up at least points.
Crouching Tigers
Cincinnati (2-8) staggers into town riding a seven-game losing streak that has it tied with the Buffalo Bills for the worst record in the AFC.
The demoralized Bengals hit a low point last week when they coughed up a 31-14 halftime lead and allowed the one-win Bills to outscore them 35-0 in the second half.
Cincinnati lost three-quarters of its defensive backfield to injuries in the game and was powerless to stop Buffalo’s passing game. The Bengals signed two cornerbacks – Jonathan Wade and Fred Bennett – off the street Monday and Tuesday.
Quarterback Carson Palmer was in a walking boot Tuesday but is expected to start against the Jets. He was 18 of 36 for 146 yards with one touchdown and one interception in last season’s playoff loss to New York.
Seasonal Changes
New York squeaked into the playoffs last season, rolling to a 37-0 rout of a Bengals team that had nothing to play for in the regular-season finale.
The teams had a rematch in the wild-card round of the playoffs one week later, and again the Jets got the best of Cincinnati with a 24-14 victory. The teams have been going in opposite directions since.
The defending AFC North champions have been among the league's biggest disappointments this season - and the team most responsible for their spiral may be the Jets (8-2).
The defense has been in shambles overall for Cincinnati, allowing 262 points in 10 games after surrendering 291 for the entire 2009 season, when it went 6-0 against AFC North foes.
Matchup To Watch
One of the bright spots for the Bengals this season has been the play of wideout Terrell Owens, who has 62 receptions for 897 yards and a team-high eight touchdowns.
Owens renewed his rivalry with Jets cornerback Darrelle Revis, who called him a “slouch” following a pair of matchups last season.
Owens responded by telling reporters this week that Revis is "just an average corner."
Trends
These two teams have played four times since 2007 and the Jets are 3-1 SU and ATS in those games.
Cincinnati carries a seven-game losing streak into Thursday matchup and is 1-6 ATS over the stretch. The over is also 5-2 during the Bengals' cold streak.
The over has been just as effective with the Jets. Gang Green has played over the total in eight of their last nine games.
Weather
There's a 50 percent chance of rain Thursday night in the Meadowlands and the game-time temperature is expected to be in the low to mid 40s.
Week 12 Games
Patriots (8-2) @ Lions (2-8) - Patriots traveling on short week after dramatic win over Colts, have Jets on deck, letdown possible, especially given their dreadful 34-14 loss in Cleveland three weeks ago. Pats are 5-4 in series, winning last two meetings 20-12/28-21; only one of their five series wins is by more than 8 points. NE was held to 14 points in both its losses; Detroit allowed 23+ points in seven of last nine games, holding only Rams/Bills under 23 in that stretch. NFC North underdogs are 8-5-1 vs. spread, 2-0 at home. AFC East favorites are 5-9-1, 2-2 on road. Pats haven’t turned ball over in four of last five games (+7). Last four Patriot games, six of last seven Lion games went over total.
Saints (7-3) @ Cowboys (3-7) - Dallas 2-0 under interim coach Garrett, scoring 33-35 points, after averaging 20.1 ppg under Phillips; they handed champ Saints first loss in Superdome LY, but are 1-5 in last six series games, with Saints winning last two played here, 27-13/42-17. Cowboys are 1-6 this year when they don’t win turnover battle; last week’s win over Lions was their first in five home games. Saints are -9 in their three losses, +5 in seven wins. NO allowed 27-30-30 points in its losses; they’re 3-1 on road, winning last two away games 31-6/34-3. NFC South favorites are 7-8-1 vs. spread, 2-3 on road. NFC East underdogs are 6-6-2 vs. spread, 1-1-2 at home. Last seven Dallas games went over total.
Bengals (2-8) @ Jets (8-2) - Jets have gaudy 8-2 mark, but its been 53 days since they won a game by more than 9 points. Cincy lost last seven games, getting outscored 35-0 in second half last week by 2-8 Bills, after leading 31-14 at half; they’re 2-3 as underdog this year, 1-2 on road- only two of their eight losses are by more than 8 points. Jets are 8-1 in last nine series games, beating Bengals twice LY, 37-0 in meaningless late season game, then 24-14 at Cincy in playoff loss that Bengals have yet to recover from. Bengals lost last 11 visits to Swamp (8 vs Jets, 3 vs Giants); their last win here was 1981. Over is 5-2 in last seven Bengal games, 8-2 in last ten Jet games. Palmer was walking around in boot early in week, is expected to play.
Tips and Trends
New England Patriots at Detroit Lions
PATRIOTS: (-7, O/U 51) After beating the Colts last week, it's widely considered that New England is the best team in the NFL. Today's game is trick for the Patriots though, as they are the traveling team on what is already a really short week. Coach Belichick is the best coach in the NFL, so one would assume his team will be ready today. The Patriots are 8-2 SU and 5-4-1 ATS overall this season. The Patriots are 3-2 both SU and ATS on the road this year, with the same exact result in each. New England is 2-3-1 ATS as a single digit favorite this season. The Patriots are averaging 28.9 PPG this year, the best in the NFL. QB Tom Brady is having another MVP caliber season, as he's thrown for nearly 2,400 YDS and 19 TD's this season. 7 different receivers have caught a TD pass this year for New England. New England keeps winning games despite a rather poor defense. The Patriots are giving up nearly 399 YPG this year, the 3rd most in the NFL. The Patriots are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games against a team with a losing home record. New England is 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following an ATS loss. The Patriots are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite between 3.5 and 10 PTS. The Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
Patriots are 2-5 ATS last 7 games as a road favorite.
Over is 6-2 last 8 games following a SU win.
Key Injuries - G Stephen Neal (shoulder) is questionable.
Projected Score: 27
LIONS: Detroit is one of the most talked about 2-8 SU teams in recent memory. That's because they are also an ATS darling at 7-3 ATS. In nearly every defeat this season, Detroit has been very competitive. The Lions are a team on the rise, and most sharp bettors realize this. The Lions are 2-2 SU and 4-0 ATS in home games this season. Even though they've lost 4 of their past 5 games SU, the Lions have gained more YDS than their opponent on 4 of those occasions. The Lions are averaging 23.4 PPG this season, despite being held to 20 PTS or fewer in their past 3 games. QB Shaun Hill is moving his offense down the field, they simply aren't putting points on the board. WR Calvin Johnson remains one of the best receivers in the game, as he has 725 receiving YDS and 10 TD's this season. In order to beat the Patriots today, the Lions will have to play their best defensive game of the season. Just 4 days ago, the Cowboys scored 35 PTS against Detroit. The Lions are 6-0 ATS against a team with a winning record. Detroit is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on fieldturf. The Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a home underdog. Detroit is 6-19-1 ATS in their last 26 games in November. The Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game. The Lions are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Thursday games.
Lions are 4-0 ATS last 4 home games overall.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games as a home underdog.
Key Injuries - RB Jahvid Best (toe) is doubtful.
Projected Score: 24 (SIDE of the Day)
New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys
SAINTS: (-4, O/U 50.5) New Orleans is playing their best football of the season, as they're riding a 3 game SU winning streak in which they've won each game by double digits. The Saints have turned a corner, and they have as good a shot as anyone in making a return trip to the Super Bowl. New Orleans is averaging 23.5 PPG, but that number is rising. The Saints have scored 34 PTS in each of their past 2 games, a season high. Revenge is clearly on the minds of the Saints, considering they lost to the Cowboys last season. New Orleans is 7-3 SU and 5-5 ATS overall this year. The Saints are 3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS overall on the road this season. QB Drew Brees has thrown for nearly 3,000 YDS this season, and has completed nearly 70% of his passes. New Orleans is allowing just 17 PPG this year, 4th best in the NFL. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games played in November. New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. The Saints are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New Orleans is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games against the NFC. The Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. New Orleans is 1-6 ATS against a team with a losing record.
Saints are 10-2 ATS last 12 road games against a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-0 last 4 games following a SU win of more than 14 points.
Key Injuries - RB Reggie Bush (knee) is probable.
Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)
COWBOYS: Dallas has won consecutive games for the first time this season. All it took was a head coaching change! The Cowboys look like a completely different team not behind Coach Garrett. Offensively, the Cowboys have scored 33 and 35 PTS respectively since the coaching change. Dallas is just 3-7 SU for the year, but they still believe they are in the playoff chase in the NFC. Dallas is also 3-7 ATS this season, with every game this season having the same exact SU and ATS result. The Cowboys are 2-2 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Jon Kitna has done an admirable job filling in for injured star Tony Romo. Kitna has managed this Cowboys offense well, and has 10 TD's to show for it. WR Dez Bryant is emerging as a star, as he's caught 6 TD's in his past 6 games overall. Dallas still needs to improve defensively if they are to make an improbable run at a playoff berth. For the season, the Cowboys are giving up 27.1 PPG, 5th most in the NFL. The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games. Dallas is 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. The Cowboys are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games played on fieldturf. Dallas is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games against the NFC. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games overall.
Cowboys are 15-5 ATS last 20 games played in November.
Over is 8-0 last 8 games played on fieldturf.
Key Injuries - RB Felix Jones (hip) is questionable.
Projected Score: 20
NFL Betting Preview: New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions
By Jeff Mattingly
New England will face the Detroit Lions for the tenth tim in a series that dates back to 1971. The teams will tangle for the first time since 2006, when the Patriots claimed a 28-21 victory on December 3, 2006 at Gillette Stadium. Head coach Bill Belichick has been stressing to his squad all week that today’s opponent has five losses this season by five points or less. “He really stays on top of us,” said wide receiver Wes Welker. “He makes sure that we’re not getting overconfident or believing in the noise outside the locker room.” New England has been successful against NFC teams in recent seasons, posting a 32-5 regular-season record against the conference since 2001. The team is 2-4 ATS as a favorite.
The Patriots are coming off a 31-28 win over AFC rival Indianapolis and will have just three days to prepare for this holiday contest. “We came in Monday and we didn’t even talk about the Colts,” said quarterback Tom Brady. “We talked about the Lions and what we need to do to beat them. Belichick has coached six times on Thanksgiving, posting a 3-3 record in those games. Today’s game will be New England’s fourth Thanksgiving Day game and third against the Lions.
Detroit will be playing in its 71st Annual Thanksgiving Day Classic, a tradition that started in 1934. The Lions enter today’s game at 2-8 after losses to Buffalo and Detroit and have lost the last six Thanksgiving Day matchups by an average of 23 points. The team has posted an 0-2 record against Belichick-Brady, losing in 2006 and 2002. In order to pull off an upset victory, the squad will look to exploit a secondary that ranks 31st in the NFL in pass defense. “I’m definitely looking forward to it,” said star wide receiver Calvin Johnson. “I think we have some chances considering how many yards they’re giving up per game. We’ll have some opportunities there.” The team is 7-2 ATS this season.
The Lions defensive front must get pressure on Brady in possibly pulling off an upset, but the Patriots offensive line has surrendered just 14.0 sacks, which is the third-lowest total in the league. “You have to get pressure on him,” said defensive end Kyle Vanden Bosch. “He’s obviously exceptional and it’s difficult to get pressure.” Detroit will have to be careful about directing blitzes versus a veteran offensive unit, as the team has allowed the seventh-most yards rushing this season.
Bettors will likely back the Patriots due to their 11-5 ATS mark as a road favorite of 3.5 to 10 points, while the Lions are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
Gridiron Angles - Week 12
By Vince Akins
Saints at Cowboys - The Saints are 6-0 ATS (14.4 ppg) since October 13, 2002 as a road favorite vs a non-divisional opponent before playing against a non-divisional opponent. The Cowboys are 8-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since November 03, 2002 within 3 of pick when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cowboys are 0-8 ATS (-9.2 ppg) since November 14, 1993 the week after a straight up win as a TD+ favorite in which they attempted at least ten fewer passes than their season-to-date average. The Saints are 11-0 OU (13.5 ppg) since December 23, 2001 within 3 of pick on the road when their opponent's season-to-date average rushing attempts per game is fewer than 25. The Cowboys are 8-0 OU (13.0 ppg) since November 22, 1990 as a home dog when facing a team that has averaged at least 32 minutes of possession time season-to-date. The Cowboys are 0-8 OU (-15.7 ppg) since November 19, 2006 within 3 of pick versus any team with more wins.
Bengals at Jets - The Bengals are 7-0 ATS (9.2 ppg) since December 24, 2006 as a dog when they suffered a 10+ point ATS loss last week against a non-divisional opponent. The Jets are 0-7 ATS (-8.4 ppg) since November 03, 1991 as a 7+ favorite vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks. The Bengals are 0-7 OU (-11.7 ppg) since December 23, 2001 after a loss against a non-divisional opponent in which they were winning at the end of the third quarter. The Jets are 0-6 OU (-11.9 ppg) since October 01, 2001 at home vs a non-divisional opponent with divisional opponents in each of the next two weeks.
Patriots at Lions - The Patriots are 7-0-1 ATS (9.4 ppg) since September 19, 2004 as a road favorite when facing a team that has allowed more than 4.5 yards per carry season-to-date. The Patriots are 7-0 ATS (12.8 ppg) since October 30, 2006 on the road when they had fewer than ten incompletions last week. The Lions are 0-7 ATS (-11.6 ppg) since September 23, 2007 vs a non-divisional opponent before playing at home against a divisional opponent. The Patriots are 7-0-1 OU (10.2 ppg) since October 21, 2007 as a favorite when their opponent's season-to-date average pass attempts per game is greater than 35. The Lions are 7-0 OU (7.6 ppg) since September 24, 2006 after they allowed at least 10 points more than their season-to-date average on the road.