NFL News and Notes Thursday 12/16

Tech Trends - Week 15
By Bruce Marshall

SAN FRANCISCO at SAN DIEGO...Norv’s time of year, as Bolts 22-10-1 vs. line from 8th week in reg. season onward since ‘07. Norv 5-1 in role TY. Singletary, however, 9-2 his last 11 as dog (2-1 TY). Tech edge-slight to Norv, based on team trends.

What Bettors Need to Know: 49ers at Chargers
By Ben Burns

As disappointing and inconsistent as San Diego and San Francisco have been, the Chargers and 49ers are only one-game out of first place in their divisions.

The two hard-to-figure-out teams meet at San Diego’s Qualcomm Stadium Thursday in a non-conference matchup that presents multiple handicapping quandaries.

Which Charger team will show up?

The Chargers (7-6, 7-6 ATS) seemed to put all the pieces together in November. They opened the month with four straight wins, including a convincing 36-14 win at Indianapolis. Most figured they were revved up for their traditional late-season charge. Then, they surrendered 251 yards rushing in a head-scratching 28-13 home loss to the Raiders.

Of course, they rebounded to thump the Chiefs last week. But the Chargers are about as bipolar as Axel Rose.

Which 49ers team will show up?

Speaking of bipolar, a noticeably calmer Mike Singletary has his resurgent squad back in the hunt in the miserable NFC West. He switched-up his quarterbacks again, with Alex Smith starting ahead of Troy Smith in last week’s win over Seattle. He’s turned the running back duties over to Brian Westbrook and Anthony Dixon with Frank Gore out for the season.

It’s resulted in four wins in the last six weeks. That’s as stable as things have been in San Francisco (5-8, 5-8 ATS) this season.

Can 49ers overcome major disadvantage at QB?

Philip Rivers is having a monster season. Needless to say, Alex Smith is not.

Smith has thrown multiple interceptions in four of his eight starts this season, although he has gone three straight starts without throwing a pick. He’s coming off his best game of the season. He completed 17 of 27 passes for 255 yards and three scores with no interceptions against Seattle. However, no one is comparing the Seahawks’ defense to the Chargers. San Diego owns the No. 1 pass defense in the league.

Rivers, meanwhile, has been putting up huge numbers, but he’s also been interception prone, having thrown an interception in seven of his last eight games.

The Line

The Chargers opened as 9-point favorites. The line was bet down to 8.5 at some outlets as of Wednesday. But there were still plenty of 9s and even a few 9.5s available.

San Francisco’s been on a nice underdog run, going 9-2-2 ATS in the last 13 games as the underdog, including a 6-2-2 ATS mark as a road dog.

The Chargers, however, have been extremely impressive as a home favorite. They are 22-6 as a home favorite of 3.5-10 points in their last 28 games in that situation.

The Total

The total opened at 44.5 and had seen very little movement as of Wednesday afternoon. Disciplined shoppers probably can find a 45 out there by kickoff, which is a significant number.

The Chargers are scoring 27.2 and allowing 19.5 points per game. The 49ers are scoring 18.7 and allowing 21.5 points per game.

Weather shouldn’t be a factor, with temperatures in the mid-50s and only a slight chance of precipitation.

The teams have not met since San Diego’s 48-19 win over the Niners in 2006.

Injury Report

Chargers: Tight end Antonio Gates (foot) is expected to miss Thursday’s game. Gates was inactive last week against Kansas City and was extremely limited in practice this week. Wide receiver Vincent Jackson is expected to play with a calf injury.

49ers: Inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Takeo Spike, the team’s top two tacklers, were wearing club-like casts on their right hands this week. Willis missed Monday and Tuesday’s practices, and Spikes sat out Monday. But both are expected to play.

Niners at Chargers
By Kevin Rogers

Week 15 kicks off on Thursday night in Southern California with the surging Chargers battling the 49ers. San Diego is still alive to win the AFC West after shutting out Kansas City on Sunday, while San Francisco is hanging around in the NFC West following its blowout victory of Seattle. The task for the Lightning Bolts is to keep up their December magic, which is now 19 wins in their last 20 games in the final month of the season since 2006.

Philip Rivers led the Chargers to a 31-0 pasting of a Chiefs' squad without Matt Cassel, putting San Diego within one game of Kansas City in the AFC West race. The Bolts covered easily as 10-point favorites, bouncing back from the embarrassing 28-13 home setback to the Raiders in Week 13. For the exception of the Oakland meltdown, the Chargers have allowed 13 points or less in three of their last four games (3-0-1 to the 'under.')

The Niners are still alive in the mediocre NFC West at 5-8, sitting one game back of both the Rams and Seahawks heading into Thursday's action. San Francisco destroyed Seattle, 40-21 at Candlestick Park on Sunday as 4 ½-point favorites. Alex Smith tossed three touchdown passes in his first game since a Week 7 overtime loss at Carolina, while the Niners built a 30-7 halftime lead. San Francisco has won four of six games since a 1-6 start to the season, keeping its slim playoff hopes alive.

The Chargers have played this entire season with a variety of issues and injuries on the offensive side, as Pro Bowl tight end Antonio Gates will likely miss his second straight game with a foot injury. Vincent Jackson made his first two catches of the season in Sunday's win over Kansas City, one season after a career-high 1,167 yard campaign. The defense was the story against the Chiefs by limiting Todd Haley's team to just 67 yards of total offense, one week after the Raiders torched San Diego for 368 yards (including 251 on the ground).

Most likely, the AFC West will get only one team into the postseason since the Jets and Ravens look like the Wild Card teams. San Diego finishes the season with road games at Cincinnati and Denver, while Kansas City takes on St. Louis, Tennessee, and Oakland the final three weeks. The Chargers are 6-4 against conference opponents, owning a one-game edge in that department over the Chiefs (5-5).

San Francisco has won only one road game this season, coming in the Monday night massacre of Arizona in Week 12 with a 27-6 thrashing of the Cardinals. The Niners have been listed as a road underdog only twice in six away contests, covering at Atlanta, while failing to cash in an 18-point loss at Green Bay. Under Mike Singletary, San Francisco is a profitable 9-5-2 ATS when receiving points on the highway since 2008.

The Niners can help themselves with a win on Thursday, but a loss doesn't exactly eliminate them from the NFC West title. San Francisco can finish 5-1 inside the division with victories the final two weeks over St. Louis and Arizona, which would move the Niners to 7-9. That record may be good enough to host a first-round playoff game, which proves if you can get into the playoffs anyway possible, anything can happen.

When San Diego wins at Qualcomm Stadium, it usually blows away its opponents. Four of San Diego's five home victories this season are by double-digits, with the lone single-digit triumph coming by eight points over Tennessee in Week 8. The Bolts are 7-2 SU and 5-3-1 ATS against NFC opponents at home since 2006, while compiling a 7-2 mark to the 'over.'

San Francisco hasn't exactly cleaned up in road interconference contests by winning two of its last 11 away games against the AFC since 2005. However, the Niners have held their own in the ATS department with a 5-5-1 ATS ledger, including a 3-1-1 ATS underdog mark since Singletary's promotion in 2008.

The Thursday night game has finished 'over' the last two weeks with shootouts between Houston and Philadelphia, followed up by Indianapolis' 30-28 victory over Tennessee last Thursday. Many Colts' backers were less than thrilled with the Titans scoring a touchdown on the final play of the game to cover as three-point home underdogs. It's tough to find an ATS loss that burned more than that from a side standpoint this season, as the late pick-six by the Jets against the Vikings in Week 5 for a front-door cover did hurt (for me personally).

The Chargers are laying nine points at most sportsbooks with a handful of 9 ½-point lines hanging out there. The total is set at 44 ½ at a majority of spots, while several 45's are available if you want to take the 'under'. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT from Qualcomm Stadium and will be televised nationally on the NFL Network.

vegasinsider.com

Chargers, 49ers begin NFL Week 15 betting
By: Michael Robinson

The San Diego Chargers and San Francisco 49ers are both fighting for postseason berths as they kick off NFL Week 15 on Thursday Night Football.

Bookmaker.com has San Diego as 8½-point home favorites with a total of 44 points. San Fran is plus 325 to pull off the sizable upset.

The Chargers (7-6 straight-up and against the spread) got a huge 31-0 home win over Kansas City last week. That spread ballooned up to 10 points before game time as Chiefs quarterback Matt Cassel (appendectomy) couldn’t go and was replaced by Brodie Croyle.

Croyle made it obvious why he’s the backup by going just 7-of-17 for 40 yards. San Diego dominated the time of possession, 40-20 minutes, out-gaining the Chiefs 426-76 in total yards.

The win cut Kansas City’s (8-5 SU) lead to just one game in the AFC West. San Diego can take the division by winning out (at Cincinnati and Denver are next), plus one loss by KC. The wild card is also a possibility for San Diego, albeit less likely.

San Diego has made its playoff run by going 5-1 SU and ATS in its last six games. The only loss was a shocking 28-13 home defeat to Oakland two weeks ago as 12 ½-point favorites. The Raiders ran over, around and through the Chargers defense for 251 yards, while San Diego mustered just 21 on the ground.

The Chargers did do a great job running the ball last week with Michael Tolbert (66 yards), rookie Ryan Mathews (65 yards) and Darren Sproles (53 yards) all contributing. The running game ranks 13th in the NFL (113.4 YPG) and balance is needed Thursday with tight end Antonio Gates (foot) and receiver Patrick Crayton (wrist) questionable.

San Diego is 5-2 ATS at home this year and 11-4 ATS in its last 15 December contests even after the Oakland game. The ‘under’ is 4-1 in its last five home games.

The 49ers are remarkably alive for the playoffs at 5-8 SU (5-8 ATS). That’s what happens residing in the lowly NFC West with division leaders St. Louis and Seattle both 6-7 SU.

Coach Mike Singletary made another quarterback change last week by going with Alex Smith. He started the first seven games (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) before injuring his shoulder and giving way to Troy Smith for the next five (3-2 SU, 2-3 ATS).

Singletary cited Alex Smith’s experience for starting him last week at home against Seattle. The former No. 1 overall pick in 2005 went 17-of-27 for 255 yards, three TDs and no picks. He has an 80.6 quarterback rating for the year. The Seahawks had five turnovers and San Fran easily ‘covered’ the 4½-point spread with a 40-21 win.

The challenge for Smith and the 49ers will be much harder this week. Their true road record (excluding the London game vs. Denver) is 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS. The road record with Alex Smith starting is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS.

The team is also dealing with the loss of running back Frank Gore (hip) for the year. Anthony Dixon and Brian Westbrook have filled in the last two weeks with mixed results. San Fran is 0-8-1 ATS in its last nine games following an ATS win.

The 49ers finish the season at St. Louis and home to Arizona. They will incredibly make the playoffs if they win all three and Seattle loses one game.

San Francisco and San Diego haven’t faced each other since 2006, with San Diego winning 48-19 as 10-point road favorites.

Kickoff from Qualcomm Stadium will be 5:20 p.m. (PT) on the NFL Network. Weather is from sunny San Diego will be clear and in the 50s.

Tips and Trends

San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers

NINERS: San Francisco is coming off arguably their best game of the season as well, a 40-21 SU win over Seattle. The Niners are in the exact same situation as the Chargers, a must win scenario. San Francisco is 5-8 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Niners are 1-5 SU and 2-4 ATS on the road this year. San Francisco is 2-1 ATS as the listed underdog this season. QB Alex Smith was brilliant being back in the starting lineup. Smith threw 3 TD's without an INT last week. Between Smith and new starting RB Brian Westbrook, the 49ers have a revitalized offense. Defensively, San Francisco is allowing 21.5 PPG and 327 YPG this season. The 49ers are 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games as the listed underdog. San Francisco is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. The 49ers are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 road games against a team with a winning home record. The 49ers are 5-21-3 ATS in their last 29 games following a SU win of more than 14 points. San Francisco is 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.

Niners are 0-5 ATS last 5 games following a SU win.
Under is 8-3 last 11 games played in December.

Key Injuries - LB Patrick Willis (hand) is probable.

Projected Score: 17

CHARGERS: (-9, O/U 45) San Diego is coming off their best performance of the season, a 31-0 SU drubbing of Kansas City. The Chargers are in a must win scenario for the rest of the season, so they will have to continue their stellar play tonight. San Diego is 7-6 both SU and ATS overall this season. The Chargers are 5-2 both SU and ATS this year. In fact, San Diego has had the exact same result both SU and ATS in each game this year. The Chargers are averaging 27.2 PPG this year, 3rd best in the NFL. QB Phillip Rivers is having an outstanding season, throwing for more than 3,850 YDS and 26 TD's this year. RB Mike Tolbert has brought some physicality to the Chargers, as he's rushed for 10 TD's and nearly 700 YDS this season. Defensively, San Diego is allowing a league low 265 YPG this season. San Diego has held 3 of their past 4 opponents to 14 PTS or fewer. The Chargers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as the listed favorite. San Diego is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games played on grass. The Chargers are 22-6 ATS in their last 28 games as a home favorite between 3.5 and 10 points. The Chargers are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games played in December. San Diego is 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Chargers are 5-1 ATS last 6 games overall.
Under is 4-1 last 5 home games.

Key Injuries - T Marcus McNeil (knee) is questionable.

Projected Score: 24 (UNDER-Total of the Day)

NFL Preview: San Francisco 49ers at San Diego Chargers
By: Jeff Mattingly

San Francisco has a quick turnaround following its 40-21 home victory over the Seattle Seahawks and will face off against the San Diego Chargers in prime time on Thursday night. The 49ers are 5-0 all-time when playing on Thursday Night Football, including 3-0 on the road. Quarterback Alex Smith has been a part of two of those victories behind center and he’s trying to lead the team to a possible division title. “I’m not thinking about any of that future stuff, to be honest with you,” he commented. “We’re back in the division and we’re playing one of the best football teams in the NFL.” Smith is likely to look for tight end Vernon Davis early and often, as he has caught a touchdown in six of his past seven games. San Francisco is 10-6 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

The 49ers have some major injury concerns especially on the defensive end with inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes missing practice again on Wednesday. “Right now, it’s still uncertain,” Willis said of is availability for Thursday. “Obviously it got banged up pretty good. I’m just going to see what the doctors say and listen to my trainers.” It’s important to point out that Willis has started every game since he was drafted in 2007 and Spikes has been playing well by leading the team in tackles the last two weeks while batting injuries.

San Diego is 7-6 overall on the season and must be focused in playing a 49ers team that has a disappointing 5-8 mark. The Chargers coaching staff has been quick to point out that San Francisco has beaten Oakland, St. Louis and Seattle this season, which the team has a combined 0-4 record against. “I think what that does is it gets our guys’ attention,” said head coach Norv Turner. The team will rely heavily once again on the arm of quarterback Philip Rivers, who has a 106.0 passer rating at Qualcomm Stadium and his 15 touchdown passes are one back of New Orleans’ Drew Brees for the league lead at home. San Diego is 17-6 ATS as a home favorite of 7.5 to 10 points.

The Chargers are glad to be playing their third consecutive home game and will look to move Turner’s record to 24-8 at Qualcomm. San Diego has won the last two meetings with San Francisco, including a 20-17 win in overtime at home in November 2002. Plenty of optimism is found in the club’s locker room these days, winners of five of their last six games and the return of Pro Bowl wide receiver Vincent Jackson. It also helps to know that Rivers has a 20-1 record in December and January contests.

Bettors will likely lay the 49ers due to their 0-8-1 ATS mark following a spread win, while the Chargers are 11-4 ATS in December.