NFL News and Notes Thursday 12/23

Tech Trends - Week 16
By Bruce Marshall

CAROLINA at PITTSBURGH.. Panthers only 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY but have gone "over" 4-1-1 last six, a departure from previous John Fox/Carolina "totals" trends that had been decidedly "under." Meanwhile, Tomlin trending "under" lately (4 of last 5 "under") as Steel’s long "over" skein at Heinz Field appears to be disappearing. Tech edge-slight to Steelers, based on Panthers’ spread trends.

What Bettors Need to Know: Panthers at Steelers
By Ben Burns

Big NFL pointspreads - like in Thursday night’s Panthers-Steelers matchup at blustery Heinz Field - can be very difficult to handicap.

Clearly, the Steelers (10-4, 8-6 ATS) are by far the superior team and very capable of whipping the Panthers by more than two touchdowns. Four of the Steelers’ 10 wins have come by more than 14 points. Plus, the 2-12 Panthers are about as bad as it gets.

Carolina (2-12, 4-10 ATS) has failed to win on the road this season, losing by an average score of 25-16. Overwhelmed rookie quarterback Jimmy Clausen is at the controls of the worst offense in the league. Six of the Panthers’ 12 losses have come by more than two touchdowns.

The Steelers, who have clinched a playoff berth, still have plenty to play for, including the AFC North, which they can capture by beating the Panthers and the Browns next week.

The Panthers, on the other hand, haven’t been playing for anything other than draft position for months.

But even with all that, it’s still an uneasy feeling to lay more than two touchdowns in the NFL. Double-digit favorites are just 7-10 against the spread this season.

The Line

The Steelers opened as 14-point favorites, but the two touchdowns didn’t scare away Pittsburgh bettors. The number was bumped up to 14.5 at most outlets, with a few 15s available as of Wednesday.

Carolina has covered in four of its last five games as an underdog of 10.5 points or more and is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 December games.

The Steelers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.

The Total

The total opened at 37 and was holding steady as of Wednesday afternoon.

Snow is forecast throughout Thursday, although the accumulation is expected to be moderate. The wind is also expected to be moderate, around 11-15 mph.

The Steelers’ reputation as a run-oriented team with a stingy defense has produced a profitable run of overs. The over is 50-24-3 (65 percent) in the Steelers lasts 77 games as a home favorite.

Pittsburgh is scoring 21.9 and surrendering 15.7 points per game. Carolina is scoring 13.1 and allowing 25 points per game.

The teams last met in 2006 with the Steelers winning 37-3.

Injury Report

Troy Polamalu, the Steelers’ All-Pro safety, missed Tuesday’s practice with an ankle injury and is not expected to play. Backup defensive end Aaron Smith also is doubtful after missing practice this week with a triceps injury.

For the Panthers, defensive end Tyler Brayton (hip), running back Mike Goodson (illness), fullback Tony Fiametta (ankle) and corner Captain Munnerlyn missed Tuesday’s practice.

Carolina is expected to get starting corner Chris Gamble (ankle) back. Gamble missed the last three games.

Steelers host Panthers in Thursday NFL betting mismatch
By: Adam Markowitz

There might not be a bigger mismatch on the NFL odds than what we are about see unfold on Thursday Night Football this week. The Carolina Panthers are going to hit the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field with the hosts having everything to play for.

Pittsburgh won't win the AFC North with a 'W' on Thursday, but it can move within one win or a Baltimore Ravens loss from wrapping up both the division crown and a first-round bye in the playoffs in the AFC.

The biggest problem that Carolina will have in this game is that it doesn't have a passing game to speak of. Quarterback Jimmy Clausen just really doesn't have a sense of what's going on right now in his rookie campaign, and he is going to have to go up against one of the most ferocious defenses in the game on Thursday. The former Golden Domer has thrown for just two TDs against seven picks this year, and he is leading a passing attack that easily ranks dead last in the league at 149.3 YPG.

Knowing that his quarterback is going to be under the gun the whole game, head coach John Fox is going to be asking his running game to be strong. Without the injured DeAngelo Williams in the lineup, the task is very difficult. But at this point, with the Steelers allowing just 63.4 YPG on the ground, by far the best in the league, it probably doesn't matter who is carrying the football.

The Steelers are coming off of that bad loss at home to the New York Jets in Week 15, but they have to be full of confidence having already clinched a playoff spot. That bugaboo about the playoffs from last season has been exorcized, but there is still work to be done. Pittsburgh made a bad habit out of losing to teams like this in spots like this one, just as it did against the Oakland Raiders late last year.

The health of Troy Polamalu is a concern, but it shouldn't be the biggest deal in the world if he can't suit up. Polamalu missed his first game of the season last week with an Achilles injury, and he is listed as questionable for this one as well.

The ground game should be shining brightly considering the fact that the Panthers rank 23rd in the league at stopping the run. Running Back Rashard Mendenhall became the first man to rush for at least 100 yards on the New York Jets defense in 20 games last week, and his 17 carries and 100 yards marked the fourth time this year he reached the century mark on the ground. Mendenhall has a whopping 292 carries already on the season and has career highs in rushing yards (1,173) and TDs (10).

There isn't much history to analyze between these two teams, as this is only the fifth NFL betting battle that the two have had. The Panthers have never had any luck, especially here in Pittsburgh. The men from the Steel City are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in this series all-time, and 2-0 SU and ATS here at home. The Steelers have wins of 30-14 and 30-20 from 2002 and 1999 respectively.

The NFL lines feature Pittsburgh as a 13 ½-point favorite by the oddsmakers at 5Dimes.com. The 'total' for Thursday Night Football has been set at 37.

Panthers at Steelers
By Kevin Rogers

The Christmas week card in the NFL gets going on Thursday night with the AFC North leading Steelers trying to take one step closer to a potential first-round bye in the playoffs. Pittsburgh plays hosts to a Carolina team that has its sights set on the top pick in April's draft, as the Panthers have won only two games all season. The key for the Steelers is if they can bounce back from a disappointing home loss last Sunday.

Mike Tomlin's team was tripped up by the struggling Jets, 22-17 as 3 ½-point favorites at Heinz Field. That number opened up at seven, but dropped significantly during the week when the news came out that Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu would miss the game with an ankle injury suffered in the Week 14 win over the Bengals. The impact of Polamalu out of the lineup is drastic for the Steelers, who are 5-7 SU and 3-8-1 ATS without the former USC standout since the start of last season.

To break it down even further, Pittsburgh has given up an average of 23 ppg in the 12 games that Polamalu has missed since 2009. When the safety is in the lineup, the Steelers are limiting opponents to 14.8 ppg, with only one instance in which they allowed more than 22 points in this span (39 to the Patriots in Week 10. Basically, the Steelers' defense sees a significant drop, but we'll see what kind of ramifications it has against a pedestrian Carolina offense.

The Panthers have had issues all season scoring on a consistent basis, averaging a league-low 13 ppg. Jimmy Clausen may or may not be the future for Carolina, but the ex-Notre Dame star hasn't thrown for more than 200 yards in any of his 10 appearances this season. Clausen tossed only his second touchdown pass of the season in Sunday's 19-12 victory over the Cardinals, hooking up with Jeff King on a 16-yard score.

For the lack of offense that John Fox's club provides, that has not translated into a substantial amount of 'unders.' The Panthers are 7-6 to the 'under,' while each of Carolina's last three road games has finished 'over' the total. Carolina has eclipsed the 20-point total only twice this season, coming in an overtime win over San Francisco and a one-point loss at Cleveland. Three of Carolina's last four opponents are not strong on the offensive end, but the Panthers allowed eight touchdowns to the Cardinals, Seahawks, and Browns.

The Steelers have not been automatic at Heinz Field with just a 4-3 record, compared to a 6-1 mark on the highway. Pittsburgh has scored 17 points or less in three of four home games against teams that will make the playoffs (Atlanta, Baltimore, New England, and N.Y. Jets). The only game in which the Steelers sailed over the 17-point mark was the 26-spot against the Patriots, even though 23 points came in the fourth quarter with the game pretty much decided.

Pittsburgh has bounced back nicely off a non-cover by going 4-1 ATS following an ATS loss this season. Thursday's contest will be the 20th occurrence in 2010 which a home team is laying double-digits. These home favorites have won 16 of 19 games, but are just 8-11 ATS (42%). There has been a significant shift with this system when double-digit home 'chalk' is coming off a home loss this season as opposed to the last few seasons. From 2006-2009, home favorites of at least 10 points were 1-8 ATS when they lost the previous week at home. This season, these clubs are 3-1 ATS, a drastic change from the seemingly automatic 'fade' from years' past.

The loss to the Jets snapped a four-game 'under' streak for the Steelers, as New York was the first team in five weeks to score more than 17 points against Pittsburgh. Under Tomlin, the Steelers are 8-8 ATS against NFC opponents, but they have a solid 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS mark at home.

The Panthers have turned into a strong play on the road against AFC foes, owning a 4-1 ATS ledger since 2008. One of those covers came as 8 ½-point underdogs at Cleveland in Week 12 as Carolina fell short in a 24-23 defeat. Fox was known as a great underdog play several seasons ago, but that is turning into a 50/50 proposition with the Panthers going 6-7 ATS as a road 'dog since 2009.

The Steelers opened up as 13 ½-point favorites, but that number has moved up to 14 and even 14 ½ in several spots. The total is set at 37 as gametime temperatures in Pittsburgh expect to be in the high 20's with a 40% chance of snow flurries. The game kicks off at 8:30 PM EDT and will be televised nationally on the NFL Network.

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Week 16 Games

Panthers (2-12) @ Steelers (10-4) - Carolina off a win, Pitt off a loss, is now tied for AFC North lead, so win here is huge, since division winner likely to have first round bye. Panthers are 2-4 as road dog this year, losing away games by 13-2-10-15-1-17 points- they scored 14-10-19 points last three weeks (4 TDs on 34 drives) with only TD last week coming on 16-yard drive. Steelers are 3-0 vs spread in game following a loss this year; they’re just 4-3 SU at home, 3-3 as home fave, with wins by 6-18-32-16 points. Carolina lost both previous visits here, 30-20/30-14, but last one was in 2002. Panthers were outscored 51-16 in second half of last three games. AFC North home favorites are just 4-10 in non-divisional games. Four of last five Steeler games stayed under total.

Tips and Trends

Carolina Panthers at Pittsburgh Steelers

PANTHERS: Carolina picked up a very rare SU win last week, beating the Arizona 19-12 SU. The Panthers are 2-12 SU and 4-10 ATS overall this season. Despite the win, Carolina still has the worst record in the NFL this year. The Panthers have yet to win a game away from home this year, 0-6 SU and 2-4 ATS. Carolina is 1-1 ATS as a double digit underdog this year. QB Jimmy Clausen is taking his lumps this year, but he's not quitting. Clausen has thrown for 1,304 YDS and 2 TD's during his time under center for Carolina. The Panthers do have the 12th ranked rushing attack in the NFL, averaging 116.8 YPG. Carolina has by far the worst scoring offense in the NFL, averaging just 13.1 PPG this year. The Panthers have allowed 5 of their past 7 opponents to score at least 30 PTS. The Panthers are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games played in December. Carolina is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game. The Panthers are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on grass. Carolina is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall. The Panthers are 0-5 ATS against a team with a winning record.

Panthers are 4-1 ATS last 5 games as an underdog of more than 10.5 points.
Under is 6-1 last 7 games following a SU win.

Key Injuries - CB Chris Gamble (hamstring) is questionable.

Projected Score: 10

STEELERS: (-13, O/U 37) Pittsburgh has clinched a playoff berth, thanks to a 10-4 SU and 8-6 ATS season. The Steelers are trying to win the AFC North, as they look to stay in front of Baltimore. Pittsburgh is playing on a short week, but at least they didn't have to travel during this time. Pittsburgh is 4-3 both SU and ATS this season at home. The Steelers are a perfect 3-0 ATS as a favorite more than a TD this year. RB Rashard Mendenhall has rushed for more than 1,150 YDS and 10 TD's this year. WR Mike Wallace has more than 1,000 receiving YDS this year, including 8 TD's. Defensively, the Steelers allow just 15.7 PPG this season, tied for the NFL best. The Steelers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games against a team with a losing road record. Pittsburgh is 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following an ATS loss. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS against a team with a losing record. Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.

Steelers are 1-4 ATS last 5 games as a favorite of more than 10.5 points.
Over is 8-2 last 10 games following a SU loss.

Key Injuries - S Troy Polamalu (achilles) is questionable.

Projected Score: 28 (SIDE of the Day)