What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL Preseason Action
By Sean Murphy
New Orleans Saints at New England Patriots (-1.5, 35.5)
Who’s in, who’s out
Coming off a thrilling Super Bowl victory, it should come as no surprise that the Saints are using an “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it” mentality entering the 2010 season.
With that said, we should see a battle for the backup quarterback role between Patrick Ramsey, Chase Daniel and Sean Canfield. Drew Brees will likely play only a series of two Thursday. Ramsey should finish the first half while Daniel and Canfield will each see a quarter of action if all goes as planned.
Both receiver Robert Meachem and safety Darren Sharper are expected to miss due to injuries.
After Tom Brady makes a cameo appearance, Bill Bellichick will have two quarterbacks at his disposal in Brian Hoyer and Zac Robinson. Hoyer got a lot of work last August and will once again see significant time in the opener, while Robinson will likely only play the fourth quarter.
The Patriots are dealing with a number of injuries. Nick Kaczur, Ty Warren and, of course, Wes Welker have all been ruled out for Thursday’s game.
Line movement
The Patriots opened as 1.5-point favorites and the line has held steady since. The total has dropped a half-point since opening at 36. Perhaps that has something to do with the notion that the two teams will become familiar with one another during joint practices this week.
Key trend
The Patriots have been a miserable play early in the preseason, going 1-5 ATS in their first two games over the last three years.
Carolina Panthers at Baltimore Ravens (-3, 34)
Who’s in, who’s out
Even though he doesn’t have a wealth of NFL experience, Panthers starting quarterback Matt Moore is expected to be treated as a veteran and see only a series or two of action Thursday.
There is a heated competition for the backup role, with Hunter Cantwell battling rookie Jimmy Clausen. All indications are that Clausen has the inside track, but Cantwell could overtake him with a strong showing in the preseason. Tony Pike could see some playing time as well.
Among those missing for the Panthers will be receiver Steve Smith and linebacker Thomas Davis. Jonathan Stewart isn’t expected to be in the backfield as he recovers from a heel injury.
The Ravens have plenty of experience under center, with Joe Flacco being followed by newly-acquired Marc Bulger and Troy Smith. Once Flacco exits after a couple of series, we’ll see Bulger for the bulk of the second and third quarters. Smith will have an opportunity to show his stuff in the game’s final 15-20 minutes.
Baltimore has a lot of depth at running back, but might have to go without Willis McGahee Thursday due to a knee injury. The Ravens secondary could be razor thin with Ed Reed, Fabian Washington, Walt Harris, Dominique Foxworth and Chris Carr all either ruled out or listed as questionable for Thursday’s game.
Line movement
The Ravens opened as 3-point favorites at most books, but the betting public has since moved them off that number. They now stand as 3.5-point chalk just about everywhere. The total opened at 34 and that’s where it remains.
Key trend
Carolina is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 preseason games under John Fox.
Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 34.5)
Who’s in, who’s out
Oakland will lean heavily on its experienced stable of quarterbacks this August. Jason Campbell is the new No. 1 and he will get extended work with his new offense Thursday, especially with Charlie Frye (wrist) and Bruce Gradkowski (groin) both listed as doubtful. Head coach Tom Cable has indicated that his starters on both sides of the ball will play the first quarter.
If Frye and Gradkowski can’t go, Kyle Boller and Colt Brennan will round out the Raiders QB rotation.
Raiders running back Darren McFadden is battling through a hamstring injury and as a result, has been ruled out for Thursday.
Bettors will likely see the same QB rotation from the Cowboys that was used in the Hall of Fame Game. Tony Romo will get an additional series or two, but Jon Kitna and Stephen McGee will once again get the bulk of the action. Rookie Matt Nichols can expect to be summoned for mop-up duty for a second consecutive game.
The Cowboys lost tight end John Phillips to a season-ending knee injury this past Sunday. With TE’s Scott Sicko and Kevin Brock also dealing with injuries, starter Jason Witten is the only healthy tight end on the roster.
Line movement
Most books opened the Cowboys as 4.5-point favorites, but that line has quickly been bet down to -3.5. The total has dropped a half-point to 34 at several outlets and will likely fall further leading up to kickoff on Thursday.
Key trend
The Raiders are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS in their first preseason game over the last four seasons.
Thursday's Three-Way
By Judd Hall
Alright everyone can step back off of the ledge now. The NFL has finally returned. Some folks that see the glass as half-empty will see these as just preseason games. The rest of us normal thinking, red-blooded Americans take them as matches that we can win some cash on at the betting shops. Thursday night is the first full night of action with three games on the ledger after a boring Hall of Fame Game in Canton. So are we going to start fattening our wallets early or will we be fighting with someone for a Big Gulp of Mr. Pibb? Let’s look at the contests for some good information.
Saints at Patriots – 7:30 p.m. EDT
Things were already different in the Saints camp with Kim Kardashian moving on from Reggie Bush to new flavor Miles Austin. But this offseason saw the team head to the White House for the obligatory meeting with the President.
When the team gets on the field for Thursday night’s preseason opener, we’ll see a different squad on offense. Drew Brees will still get his two or three offensive series to shake off some of the rust. Patrick Ramsey, Chase Daniel and rookie Sean Canfield will all get snaps under center during this contest.
Wide receiver Marques Colston was another getting back into the fold after coming off of the physically-unable-to-perform list from knee surgery. While Colston has been participating in practices so far, the odds are leaning towards New Orleans’s No. 1 wideout will be sitting this game out. Same goes for Robert Meachem (toe), who is on the PUP list for the game. Lance Moore and Devery Henderson are slated to be the starters come time for kickoff.
When it comes to the Saints’ defense, this will be a game for them to take it easy. Linebackers Scott Shanle (knee) and Clint Ingram (knee) are “questionable” and on the PUP list respectively for this contest. Darren Sharper (knee) is also going to be “out” for this game, hurting the secondary all the more.
Switching our focus to the Patriots and you’ll notice that not everything is sunshine and lollipops for the guys in Foxboro. Guard Logan Mankins is not going to be back protecting Tom Brady after demanding a trade. Ryan Wendell and Rich Ohrnberger appear to be the favorites to replace him, but neither have stood out in practice.
Tom Brady won’t have to deal with these issues for too long on Thursday night. Brian Hoyer, Jeff Rowe and Zac Robinson will instead get to show off their mobility for Bill Belichick.
Most of the betting shops have posted the Patriots as 1 ½-point home favorites with a total 35 ½. It’s pretty standard stuff for a preseason game between quality clubs, to be honest.
Belichick has given up for the most part in New England’s past few preseasons (last year’s 3-1 SU, ATS mark surprised many). What he has done is watch the ‘under’ go 5-2 in his last seven preseason openers.
New Orleans has been strong away from the Superdome under Sean Payton’s tutelage, evidenced by a 6-2 SU and ATS record in preseason road tests. The ‘under’ is 5-3-1.
Another thing to keep an eye on is Super Bowl champions in their preseason openers. The last four champs have gone 1-3 SU and 1-2-1 ATS with the ‘under’ cashing in all four matches.
Panthers at Ravens – 8:00 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Here’s a game between two coaches going in opposite directions. John Fox guided the Panthers to the Super Bowl just six year ago. Now he’s just hoping to keep his job for the season.
Much of Fox’s luck will ride on how the quarterback position plays out in the preseason. Matt Moore has the starting role for the time being, but Jimmy Clausen is chomping at the bit to prove he’s ready to start as a rookie. And you can’t forget about Tony Pike out of Cincinnati, who was one of the best passers in college football a year ago.
The offense is hurting in the backfield as well with Jonathan Stewart (Achilles’) and Mike Goodson (ankle) are “questionable” and “doubtful” respectively for this contest. That kills a lot of depth behind DeAngelo Williams.
Things are much more stable in Baltimore with John Harbaugh running the show. He knows he has Joe Flacco firmly placed in as the No. 1 signal caller. And he’s got two brand new targets to throw to in Donte Stallworth and Anquan Boldin this season. Doubtful we’ll see them out there for more than two series, but that’s enough to make the folks at M&T Bank Stadium giddy. After Flacco leaves the game, look for Marc Bolger and Troy Smith to fight for the No. 2 spot on the QB depth chart.
The Ravens have been posted as 3 ½-point home faves with the total rolling in at around 34 for this opener.
Harbaugh stepped it up last year with a 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS record in the preseason. That’s a far cry from the 1-3 SU, ATS spot he posted in his first season running the Ravens. What has remained consistent is his desire to keep things close to the vest…that’s resulted in the ‘under’ going 6-2 in his exhibition work.
Fox has had his teams ready to play in the first game of the preseason during his stay in Charlotte. The Panthers are 6-2 SU and 5-3 ATS in his eight preseason openers, while the ‘over went 6-2.
Raiders at Cowboys – 9:00 p.m. EDT
The hype machine has been running hot and heavy during the offseason for the Cowboys. Plenty of pundits are saying this is the team that will be the first ever to play a Super Bowl on its home turf. And their 16-7 win over Cincinnati at the Hall of Fame Game as 2 ½-point pups did nothing to put out the fire.
While the score is what the fans care about, Dallas does have some concerns to keep in mind for its first home game of the year. They had some issues with ball control by fumbling twice, losing one of those to the Bengals. The Cowboys also failed to convert on all three of their trips to the red zone. I know that it is only the first preseason game, but that has to bother Wade Phillips to no extent. Something else to consider is that 10 of the Cowboys’ 15 drives ended in either a missed field goal or punting the ball away to the other squad.
Tony Romo will get more rest in this game after completing 5 of 10 passes for 59 yards. Stephen McGee got the majority of snaps in Canton, connecting on 12 of 22 attempts for 116 yards. Jon Kitna does figure more into the gameplan on Thursday evening after hitting 4 of 7 for 56 yards against Cincy.
Oakland comes into this contest with some love from the experts as a sleeper team in the AFC West. They upgraded the QB spot with Jason Campbell, which is far and beyond better than JaMarcus Russell could hope to be. To be fair, Russell did help me find out about the magic of “purple drank.” The Raiders are going to be a little thin under center for this game with Bruce Gradkowski (groin) and Charlie Frye (wrist) are both “questionable” for this game. That means we’ll get to see if Kyle Boller can still function at the NFL level as a quarterback. Reports are stating that Colt Brennan will be in house to show off is wares for teams to possibly pick him up.
Regardless of who is calling the signals, they’ll not have the top running back behind them in Silver and Black. Darren McFadden (hamstring) is “out” for the game after getting injured in practice on Tuesday. Michael Bush is the most logical choice to start for the Raiders in the opener.
Dallas is coming into this short turnaround as a 3 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 34 ½.
Normally you’d think that a team coming off of a game just four days earlier would be a lot to ask of them. Yet the Cowboys have a solid little trend working for them as the Hall of Fame Game winner is 3-1 SU and ATS in their very next matchup. The ‘under’ has cashed in three of those four meetings as well.
Oakland does come into this game knowing that they have won their last four preseason openers, both SU and ATS. That includes a 31-10 win over the Cowboys as a 1 ½-point home favorite last August. In their first preseason road tests, the Raiders have gone 1-3 SU and 3-1 ATS.
vegasinsider.com
NFL Preseason Breakdown
By Bill Milton
The NFL Preseason starts in earnest on Thursday with three games as the Saints take on the Patriots on ESPN while the Panthers/Ravens and Raiders/Cowboys do battle in the other two games. This article takes a look at all three games for both the side and the total...Enjoy!
Saints vs Patriots - This is the TV game but in this view is the least attractive in terms of wagering. The Pats have been known to game plan a bit for Game One (they did last year and won SU as a dog) and they have a solid ATS record in teh opener, going 4-1-2 ATS. However, the Saints are 7-1 SU in their last eight preseason away games. With all of the above in mind it is tough to fade either team in this one. Pass.
Panthers vs Ravens - This one was almost a star rated play. Coaches are creatures of habit in the preseason, and as such cannot ignore the technicals here, most notably that the Panthers fit 83% and 70% team preseason trends to the Over. Ravens also have some "Over" technicals going for them. The only thing keeping this from being a star rated play is the "sluggish, check down dominated" showing of the Panthers in their recent scrimmage. If that is cured, this goes Over. Also lean with Carolina for the side, as we like the QB rotation of youngsters out to prove something, and also note that the Panthers need some wins, any wins, to build some confidence, and last year an 0-4 preseason helped lead the way to an 0-3 regular season start. If you can play a Panthers/Over teaser that makes a great deal of sense.
Oakland/Dallas - Pokes have the big edge of having a game under their belt, and teams that played in the Hal of Fame Game are a 62% ATS proposition the next week. Also, quietly Wade Phillips has changed the tide of Dallas preseason results, as the Boys aer 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS of late as preseason hosts. However, the Raiders have a QB rotation full of former NFL starters at all four spots, and that is tough to ignore. Would take the Raiders if forced to make a play, but all in all we are passing on this one as well.