What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL Action
By Marc Lawrence
Indianapolis Colts vs. Buffalo Bills (-3.5, 33)
Who’s in, who’s out
With both teams coming off disastrous defensive performances last week, a sense of urgency creeps into this contest. That being the case, look for defensive starters from both units to log extended playing time tonight.
The problem for the Colts, though, is they are a banged-up bunch. TE Dallas Clark, OG Kyle DeVan, OT Ryan Diem, WR Pierre Garcon, DB Donye McCleskey, SS Bob Sanders, FS Jamie Silva, OG Jaimie Thomas and all sat out Tuesday’s practice. All except McCleskey Silva and Thomas are starters.
Silva and McCleskey have been placed on the season-ending injured reserve list. Indy signed safety Terrell Skinner, an undrafted rookie out of Maryland, to help fill the gap.
The offensive line is walking wounded. DeVan had a wrap on his leg (hamstring injury), while Thomas was wearing a walking boot.
Behind a paper-thin line, don’t expect Peyton Manning to be put into harm’s way. Curtis Painter, Tom Brandstater and Tim Hiller figure to take most of the snaps.
Speaking of a litany of injuries, is it any surprise that Sanders is banged-up again? He has missed more games than he’s started.
Sanders is one of 12-15 players currently on a one-practice-per-day regimen.
The Buffalo Bills backfield was hit with some bad news this week, losing both Marshawn Lynch (ankle) and Fred Jackson (hand) to injuries that will keep them sidelined for multiple weeks.
With Lynch and Jackson sidelined, rookie RB C. J. Spiller is in line to get the bulk of the carries and be the feature back.
Spiller has never carried the entire load for an offense, however. During his first three years at Clemson, he split carries with current Cleveland running back James Davis. In his senior season, he was a multi-purpose threat who only averaged 15 carries per game, but he says he is ready.
“My mindset is that when a man goes down, you never want to see it, but you have to prepare yourself as if you're next in line," Spiller said.
Meanwhile, QB Trent Edwards has maintained his hold on the Buffalo Bills starting job for now. Brian Brohm will get his chance to prove himself this week and it's Ryan Fitzpatrick's turn to sit.
This will be Brohm’s preseason debut while entering the game as the No. 2. He's expected to get about two quarters of playing time.
Brohm sat out last week's game while Fitzpatrick appeared in six series as Edwards' backup.
Rookie seventh-round pick Levi Brown, who's not part of the competition, will serve as the third-stringer as he did against the
Redskins.
Buffalo’s wide receiver corps has taken a hit with David Nelson, star of last week’s game against Washington, out with a torn ACL.
He provided valuable depth and size to a receiving corps that is already without former second-round pick James Hardy and current fourth-rounder Marcus Easley, who is scheduled to have surgery on his left knee.
Line movement
The Bills opened as 3-point favorites and have been bet up to -3.5. The total has moved down one full-point from 34 to 33. The Colts non-descript approach to the preseason (4-19 SU and 6-17 ATS since the start of the 2005 campaign), coupled with two extra days of preparation time for Buffalo, speaks volumes.
Key trend
In 11 career games as a head coach in the NFL, Buffalo boss Chan Gailey is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS during the preseason.
New England Patriots at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5, 37)
Who’s in, who’s out
With extended playing time last preseason, second-year QB Brian Hoyer made the roster in 2009. Look for him to find extended minutes again, especially with Tom Brady nursing a finger injury suffered in the New Orleans game last week.
“Brian has come in since day one and he’s worked hard,” said Patriots director of player personnel Nick Caserio. “He’s smart. He understands our system. He’s got a quick release. He gets rid of the football… when he’s been out there, he’s done some good things.”
Hoyer is being challenged by Zac Robinson, a 7th round pick from Oklahoma State. Robinson was not as sharp as Hoyer in the Saints game.
The two quarterbacks should find plenty of playing time.
Pats’ WR Torry Holt will undergo knee surgery and has been placed on the injured reserve. Meanwhile. WR Julian Edelman enjoyed added playing time (90 receiving yards and a big punt return) in last week’s preseason opener with Wes Welker still recovering from devastating off-season knee surgery. Welker could make a limited debut against the Falcons.
Plenty of questions surround the New England secondary. Expect to see more defensive rotations. As a result, Darius Butler might get less time with the first team as coaches continue to peruse the roster.
The Falcons didn't fare well in their previous meeting with Brady. He led the Patriots to a 26-10 victory over the Falcons in Week 3 of the regular season last year, completing 25 of 42 passes for 277 yards and one touchdown.WR Randy Moss grabbed 10 passes for 116 yards in the game.
Atlanta QB Matt Ryan is feeling more comfortable with each passing game.
“Third year in the system, understanding it," Ryan said. "I think I've come a long way."
Ryan realizes the Falcons lost two tight games against the Saints last year (both ATS wins) and feels they are capable of going toe-to-toe with the defending champs.
Chris Redman, John Parker Wilson and D. J. Shockley are all contending as Atlanta’s backup signal caller.
RB Jerious Norwood missed six games with a concussion and injured hip last season. He won't play in Thursday night's exhibition against New England, but the Falcons are targeting the following week at Miami for his first action of the preseason.
Falcons’ RB Michael Turner, a 2008 Pro Bowl selection trying to come back from an ankle injury last year, gained 29 yards on four carries last week.
Atlanta’s top two corners, Dunta Robinson and Brent Grimes, missed practice Tuesday. Robinson has been out with a hamstring injury, and Grimes did not practice because of a groin injury.
The Falcons finished 28th against the pass last year and they spent the off-season trying to improve the secondary.
Line movement
The oddsmakers installed Atlanta as a 1.5-point favorite with an Over/Under of 37 when the game opened. Not a lot of movement on the total but the money has settled in on the Falcons, moving to -2.5. The Patriots pointspread failure last week dropped their record to 4-5 SU and 2-7 ATS in exhibition play since the starts of the 2008 season, quite a departure from Bill Belichick’s 20-13 SU and 19-10-4 ATS mark in his first eight preseasons with New England.
Key trend
The home team is 6-1-2 ATS in Mike Smith’s preseason games in his NFL career.
Colts vs Bills Preview
By SportsPics
Buffalo's second home, the Rogers Centre in Toronto Canada will be the venue when Bills take on Indianapolis Colts Thursday night.
Bills new era with head coach Chan Gailey did not get off to a good start as the squad was trounced 42-17 in the preseason opener with Washington Redskins. Trent Edwards, Gailey's current #1 choice went 6-for-12 with 58 yards and an interception with backups Fitzpatrick, Brown completing a combined 9-of-21 for 89 yards 1 TD, 1 INT in the loss. Like all preseason games the final outcome is of little consequence but losing two top two running backs (Fred Jackson, Marshawn Lynch) in the process is something Bills could least afford. Bills ridding a 1-6 (1-5-1 ATS) preseason skid are 17-25 (20-20-2 ATS) in practice season dating back to 2000 including 3-7 (4-5-1 ATS) in week-two.
Meanwhile, Colts opened their preseason with a 37-17 defeat at the hands of 49ers as Peyton Manning connected on 8-of-10 passes for 91 yards before giving way to Painter, Brandstater notching a combined 98 yards, 1 TD, 4 INT in the loss.
Colts don't usually give a damn about preseason having gone 16-28 (16-26-2 ATS) since 2000 but this August tussle goes their way. It may be a ‘meaningless’ preseason game however Colts returning most of its core from last year won't let these pathetic Bills enjoy a repeat of last years finale in which Buffalo walked off 30-7 winners.
Take Colts and the points, Bills are 3-11-1 ATS as faves of -4.5 or less in August action.
Colts' Painter to see bulk of action in Buffalo
By: StatFox
Peyton Manning showed his MVP form in the Colts’ opener against the 49ers, going 8-for-10 for 91 yards while leading his team to 10 points in two series. The offense struggled when Manning turned the reins over to backup Curtis Painter, who proceeded to throw 3 INT in a 37-17 loss to the 49ers. The Colts are now 4-19 in their last 23 preseason games.
The Bills are coming off of a 42-17 thrashing at the hands of the Redskins in their preseason opener. Ryan Fitzpatrick was the top performer at QB for Buffalo, completing 9 of 14 passes for 61 yards and a TD without throwing a pick. Trent Edwards connected on half of his 12 pass attempts for a total of 58 yards and an INT. Bills RBs Fred Jackson (hand) and Marshawn Lynch (ankle) are both out for this game and likely longer, which should lead to more carries for all-purpose rookie C.J. Spiller out of Clemson. Spiller carried the ball four times for 16 yards against the Redskins.
Painter can’t play much worse than he did in the Colts’ opener and it would seem unlikely that the defending AFC Champs would remain winless after this one against a depleted sub-par team.
Consider this stat from the FoxSheets: Play On - Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - off a home loss by 10 or more points, winless in the preseason. (21-4 over the last 10 seasons.) (84%, +16.6 units. Rating = 2*).
Patriots travel to Atlanta for second pre-season test
By: StatFox
The Patriots and Falcons are both coming off of solid wins in their preseason openers. For the second straight week, the Patriots are holding joint practice sessions with their upcoming opponent, having done the same thing last week with the Saints. Tom Brady was efficient (5-for-8, 67 yards in two series) in a 27-24 win over the Saints, but suffered a finger injury on his throwing hand. In typical Patriots fashion, the extent of the injury is unknown. Despite having participated in a majority of training sessions after undergoing major knee surgery in the offseason, Wes Welker did not play in the opener and probably will not suit up on Thursday either.
Matt Ryan played just two series in the Falcons’ 20-10 win over the Chiefs, completing three of six pass attempts, including a pair of third-down conversions to Tony Gonzalez. Michael Turner had a solid performance, gaining 29 yards on just four carries with a long of 10.
The Patriots stifled the Falcons offense in Week 3 of the 2009 regular season, posting a convincing 26-10 win in Foxboro. However, that game was played in less than ideal weather conditions with periods of heavy rain over the course of the afternoon. The Falcons are different team in a climate-controlled dome environment. The FoxSheets show that ATLANTA is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in dome games since 1993. The average score was ATLANTA 21.2, OPPONENT 16.9 - (Rating = 0*).