Thursday's Preseason Battles
By Judd Hall
Preseason football doesn’t really catch the nation’s attention. Fans hate it because you’re seeing your starters for maybe the entire first quarter, if you’re lucky. And players can’t enjoy the prospect of a season ending injury happening in a game that doesn’t count towards anything. Hell, Al Michaels pretty much told you that we, the gambling public, are the only folks interested in these tilts last Sunday.
Yet most everyone will keep a keen eye to what happens this week in the NFL. Week 3 of the exhibition schedule is largely considered the dress rehearsal for many teams. That means we should see the starters play the entire first half.
If you’ve been betting on home teams to come through in the preseason, then you’re enjoying some of the finest Top Ramen that pocket change can afford. That’s because the home teams are 16-13 straight up, but 13-16 against the spread. The ‘over’ has been the only profitable option during the preseason by going 19-12.
We’ve got a pair of games on Thursday night to kick off Week 3 exhibition action. Let’s take a look at both tilts.
Rams at Patriots – 7:30 p.m. EDT
The Rams’ fans haven’t had much to root for a few seasons. That changed at the NFL Draft when they took Oklahoma’s Sam Bradford with the first pick. The jury is still out on the young signal caller after two starts. He completed 6 of 13 passes for 57 yards while getting sacked four times in his debut against the Vikings. Last week, Bradford connected on 6 of 14 attempts for just 24 yards, but wasn’t sacked once at Cleveland.
St. Louis wasn’t planning on putting Bradford into the fire this year with A.J. Feeley proving to be competent under center. That won’t matter on Thursday as Feeley (thumb, elbow) is “out,” leaving Bradford to handle the starting duties. Keith Null appears to be the third-stringer after taking the majority of snaps against the Browns, while Duke’s Thaddeus Lewis will be riding the pine.
While the Rams are still figuring things out on offense, New England looks like it is ready to roll. Tom Brady was impressive in completing 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a touchdown in the Patriots 28-10 win as three-point road pups against Atlanta.
Perhaps the biggest news of last week was seeing Wes Welker back on the field since blowing out the ACL in his left knee last year’s season finale. The league’s top receiver the last three years snared two catches for 20 yards.
We’ve not heard much about the playing time for the Pats’ quarterbacks in this game. What does seem certain is that they will be going with Brian Hoyer and Zac Robinson behind Brady for much of the season.
Most sportsbooks are posting the Patriots as 7 ½-point home favorites with a total of 37 ½.
If there is one thing we can be assured of is that Bill Belichick doesn’t really give a damn about the preseason. When it comes to the dress rehearsal, however, his teams play to win. The Pats are 6-2 SU and 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight preseason Week 3 battles going back to 2002.
St. Louis has fared well on the road in preseason tests under Steve Spagnuolo’s short tenure as coach. Not hard to figure that out seeing as the Rams are 3-0 SU and ATS away from the Edward Jones Dome. The ‘over’ has hit in all three of those contests as well.
Colts at Packers – 8:00 p.m. EDT, ESPN
Bettors can expect to see Green Bay listed as a 3 ½-point home “chalk” with a total of 44 for this contest. That’s a fairly standard line for a preseason contest. The total, on the other hand, speaks to us seeing a high scoring affair.
One look at how the Colts are treating these games could help understand that total. Indianapolis has been awful lax on the defensive side of the ball. They gave up 367 yards to the Bills last week and 335 yards to the 49ers in the preseason opener. Both of those contests wound up as a loss for Indy.
That lack of defensive discipline has magnified the QB play issues, but not Peyton Manning’s play. Manning has looked like his usual sharp self, completing 64 percent of his passes for 182 yards and a touchdown. Manning’s backup, Curtis Painter, has left a lot of people uneasy. Painter went 9-of-19 for 64 yards and was picked off three times in the 37-17 loss to San Francisco in Week 1 of the preseason. He did turn it around by nailing 5 of his 6 passes for 97 yards and a score against Buffalo. Yet the question remains about Painter being ready for primetime.
The Packers might only be 1-1 in the preseason, but the stats show that Mike McCarthy has to be pleased with the effort…particularly on the attack.
Green Bay has racked up 761 yards in total offense in two preseason games so far. Aaron Rodgers has shined in both outings by connecting on 20 of his 24 attempts for 275 yards and three touchdowns. But more importantly, Rodgers has yet to be sacked. That’s huge for the Pack as Rodgers was sacked 50 times, the most in the NFL in 2009.
Bettors will be good to know that the Pack are 4-5 SU and 5-4 ATS during preseason home tilts under McCarthy. The ‘over’ has posted a very profitable 7-2 mark in those games. Focusing on the dress rehearsals, you’ll see that Green Bay is 2-2 SU and ATS, but the ‘over’ is 3-1 in those spots.
vegasinsider.com
What Bettors Need to Know: Thursday's NFL Action
St. Louis at New England (-7.5, 37.5)
Bradford's big break?
Sam Bradford gets the start for the St. Louis Rams thanks to A.J. Feeley’s injured thumb.
It will be the first time Bradford has played with Steven Jackson in the backfield and behind a healthy offensive line. However, the Rams are going to be very careful with Jackson until Week 1. He had four carries for 20 yards in last week’s 19-17 win over the Cleveland Browns.
This is Bradford’s big audition to get the start in Week 1 and after two tough preseason showings already, he needs to make some things happen. Bradford was 6-for-13 for 57 yards while taking four sacks in his first appearance against the Vikings and then went 6-of-14 for only 24 yards against the Browns last week.
New England’s RB stable
The Pats are trying to figure out some sort of running back hierarchy in the preseason, so expect to see a lot more of the rushing attack Thursday.
They currently have five running backs competing for carries and the Pats want to have a good idea of who can do what before Week 1. If the Pats know what their running back depth chart looks like, they aren’t telling anybody. Expect them to spread the carries around Thursday.
The starter report
New England will give its starters more time this week, but don’t expect the offense to be overworked. Tom Brady looks like he’s in mid-season form already, leading the first team to three touchdowns in five possessions. They don’t need much of a dress rehearsal.
Different story for the Rams, though. With Feely out, St. Louis is expected to keep Bradford and most of the first-stringers in the game through at least two quarters.
The line
The 7.5-point spread and the 37.5-point total are holding steady for the moment. New England is 2-0 straight up and against the spread (ATS) so far this preseason, while St. Louis is 1-1 straight up and ATS.
Indianapolis at Green Bay (-3.5, 44.5)
Peyton and Co.
Peyton Manning doesn’t look like he needs much more work to be ready for Game 1. He has completed 16 of 25 preseason passes with one touchdown.
Expect to see a lot from Anthony Gonzalez and Donald Brown. Gonzalez is looking to regain his spot with the first-team offense after missing all of last season with a knee injury and has some work to do after Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon emerged as threats with Manning in his absence.
The Colts are going to keep Joseph Addai as fresh as possible until these games start meaning something. That means more time for Donald Brown, provided he can block well enough to keep Manning clean.
Rodgers’ time is now
It looks as though Aaron Rodgers may finally be able to step out of Brett Favre’s shadow once and for all. He has completed 20 of 24 preseason passes with three touchdowns and no interceptions and his passer rating checks in at 154.0 so far. Tight end Jermichael Finley is becoming one of Rodgers’ favorite targets, grabbing three 12-yard passes and a touchdown during Green Bay’s long drive against the Seattle Seahawks.
The starter report
Manning and the first-string offense are expected to play into the second half, though it’s always hard to know for sure with the Colts. If Indy puts a bunch of points up early, they’ll have no reason to keep the first stringers once they find a rhythm. Same goes for the Packers. The No. 1 offensive unit will play at least a few series, but it’ll all depend after that.
Neither of these teams is far from regular season form.
The line
This line opened at Green Bay -3.5 with the total at 44 points. It hasn’t moved much since then at most shops, though you can find -4 lines and 44.5 totals around as of this writing.
Full Dress Rehearsal
By Sportspic
Tom Brady leads the New England Patriots in a week-three dress-rehearsal against visiting rookie Sam Bradford and the St. Louis Rams. Patriots are off back-2-back wins over Saints (27-24), Falcons (28-10) with Brady looking mighty sharp in his warm-up appearances going 15-of-20 for 152 yards 1 TD. Meanwhile, Rams taking it on the chin in their opener against Vikings (28-7) bounced back in week-two with a victory over Browns (19-17) as Bradford not quite in sync in the first two games has completed 12-of-27 passes for 81 yards. Little doubt Bill Belichick's troops are in better form and should remain undefeated but can they cover the 7.5 points ? Might be tougher than expected home squads are just 84-of-158 (53.2%) the past ten years during dress-rehearsal week with a 70-82-6 mark against-the-oddsmaker including 19-29 against-the-number laying 3.5 or more. Betting on the NFL in August is a completely different exercise than betting on the same sport a month later.
Colts still looking for first win of 2010 preseason
By: StatFox
The Colts travel to Green Bay Thursday night still looking for their first win of the preseason. Peyton Manning played five series and led the Colts to a pair of TD (one rush, one pass) in the first quarter of their 34-21 loss to the Bills last Thursday, but also had an INT returned 78 yards for a score. The Colts D surrendered a pair of long first-quarter scores: a 31-yard run and a 70-yard pass. Backup Curtis Painter bounced back from a dismal opener to complete 5-of-6 passes for 97 yards, including a 43-yard TD strike to Taj Smith.
The Packers dropped their preseason opener to the Browns 27-24, but bounced back to beat the Seahawks by the same score in their second game. Through two games, Aaron Rodgers is already in midseason form, having completed 20-of-24 attempts for 275 yards and 3 TD without an INT. Backup Matt Flynn has not been as sharp, connecting on 19-of- 35 for 199 yards and 2 INT without throwing a TD. He’s also been sacked three times to Rodgers’ none.
It’s difficult to think the Colts would go winless in the preseason. Consider this from FoxSheets:
Play On - Underdogs or pick (INDIANAPOLIS) - winless in the preseason. (80-42 over the last 10 seasons.) (65.6%, +33.8 units. Rating = 2*).
Rams a solid bet to cover big preseason spread
By: StatFox
Coming off a pair of rough performances, number one overall pick Sam Bradford is expected to get the start at QB for the Rams due to thumb and elbow injuries to starter A.J. Feeley. Bradford has completed just 44 percent (12-27) of his passes so far and has yet to find the end zone. On the bright side, he has not thrown a pick either.
The Patriots have displayed a balanced run-pass attack in winning their first two preseason games over the Saints and the Falcons. Veterans Fred Taylor and Sammy Morris both topped 50 yards against the Falcons and both scored on TD runs of 20 yards or more. Meanwhile, Tom Brady completed 10 of 12 passes for 85 yards and a TD to rookie tight end Aaron Hernandez. Fellow rookie tight end Rob Gronkowski also caught a TD pass courtesy of backup QB Brian Hoyer.
The Patriots are an obvious favorite in this matchup, but give the Rams a shot at covering. Take a look at this from FoxSheets:
Play Against - Favorites of 3.5 to 10 points (NEW ENGLAND) - after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in August games. (50-24 over the last 10 seasons.) (67.6%, +23.6 units. Rating = 2*).